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June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

1002. Patrap
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

1003. Hugo5
Quoting Patrap:
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop


click image for Loop





about midway through imagry shows large thunderstorms develeping right in the middle of the hurricane, I don't know of any major hurricans that develope storms right in the middle of the eye.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
AND where do you live? If we get a bad Hurricane we could see the oil back on our beach!!
I have had a home in Seaside Florida for 6 years. All we got where tar balls for a few days. Oil did come ashore in places like LA. But that was quite a while ago and I have seen no new reports of any more washing up on shore. What I have heard is there is a large amount on the gulf sea floor.
1005. Patrap


ZOOM is active, click on image to zoom.

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve Loop
1008. Thrawst
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sorry for the off-topic post


LOL Taz is going to be all on your case. :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

IN ALL MY 7 YEARS OF TRACKING HURRICANES EVERYWHERE, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I EVER SEE A CYCLONE BECOME A CAT 4 FROM A CAT 1 IN JUST HOURS RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. NOT EVEN HUMBERTO DID THIS...

THIS IS HISTORIC!
That is my worst nightmare go to bed seeing a cat1 and waking up to a cat 4 or 5 in your backyard!!
We all have strong beliefs. What will be will be. Truth is, the hour for change may very well have passed. The circle we all exist in has people in it we can influence and help. Being a loving, selfless, understanding individual may be all any of us can give now. Whether your Left or Right, or like me, somewhere in the middle; were all going to take what Nature gives us no matter our political leaning. Like it or not, we're all in it together.
What we were tracking in 2008.

1012. Patrap
Quoting Hugo5:


about midway through imagry shows large thunderstorms develeping right in the middle of the hurricane, I don't know of any major hurricans that develope storms right in the middle of the eye.



RainbowTop Image



The Typhoon has kept significant structure inland so far, and its impact will take another 12 to 24 to see the full impact in and around Hong Kong.But the surge Levels were forecasted to be a significant and deadly rising tide.

Esp North and East of the Eyes landfall.

All our hopes for those in its path.

Darkness will come to Million's.

Good Night Folks. Gonna check the news outlets in the am to see about the impacts of Vicente. I suspect Dr. M. is going to pull data that he can find and post it in tomorrows blog entry........WW.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Night Folks. Gonna check the news outlets in the am to see about the impacts of Vicente. I suspect Dr. M. is going to pull data that he can find and post it in tomorrows blog entry........WW.


I wonder what he is thinking right now about Vicente...?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have had a home in Seaside Florida for 6 years. All we got where tar balls for a few days. Oil did come ashore in places like LA. But that was quite a while ago and I have seen no new reports of any more washing up on shore. What I have heard is there is a large amount on the gulf sea floor.


Our local university found no oil on the sea floor off our shores. Last two years beautiful beaches!
Quoting Patrap:



RainbowTop Image



The Typhoon has kept significant structure inland so far, and its impact will take another 12 to 24 to see the full impact in and around Hong Kong.But the surge Levels were forecasted to be a significant and deadly rising tide.

Esp North of the Eyes landfall.

All our hopes for those in its path.

Darkness will come to Million's.



its more than 50 miles inland.. and still a cat 3??? did Vicente forget about landfall?
1017. Patrap
Published on Jul 23, 2012 by Kate Chan

Typhoon Vicente - 2012.07.23

No.8

Life threatening one! First time not dare to go out to feel the nature by the way!

Vicente in visible light

Why is the Hong Kong radar really slow/I cant get into the site?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I wonder what he is thinking right now about Vicente...?


Probably along the lines of how the West Pacific El Nino thresh hold conditions, and any warm anomalies, helped contribute to the rapid intensification and any other topographical/oceanic features in the West Pacific at the time that the storm approached landfall.

See Yall in the am.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have had a home in Seaside Florida for 6 years. All we got where tar balls for a few days. Oil did come ashore in places like LA. But that was quite a while ago and I have seen no new reports of any more washing up on shore. What I have heard is there is a large amount on the gulf sea floor.
Sorry I thought you where on the west coast. No oil still not over what happen 2 years ago!!
1021. wxmod

Quoting StormHype:


$1B? It's noise. DC has us going $14B per day deeper in the hole. Too many antiquated entitlements are still too sacred to them to touch. Do you realize that $15T is $15,000B. $1B is 0.007% of that.


Just keep in mind that, when you fall from 10 miles up, you don't feel a thing until you hit the ground. If they hit the ground before we do, then they can't demand their money back.
1022. Patrap
Typhoon Vicente passing my apartment in Midlevels Hong Kong

Published on Jul 23, 2012 by penguinsix

T8 as Typhoon Vicente passes 100km away from HK

1023. Patrap
Typhoon Vicente swept Shenzhen

Published on Jul 23, 2012 by Gpsfreemaps
Typhoon Vicente swept Shenzhen
http://www.gpsfreemaps.com

Stay here, I'll be back..........Have a good evening all, be back later.
Oppressive Heat Continues to Impact the Central United States
A dangerous combination of heat and humidity will continue to affect portions of the Central Plains and Central Mississippi River Valley through midweek. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for this area through Wednesday where afternoon temperatures will continue to soar to over 100 degrees.
I can't wait for a CV. I would be pleasantly surprised if we got to see a Cat 5 out in the Atlantic. The last Cat 5 was Felix in 2007 right?
1028. Patrap


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I can't wait for a CV. I would be pleasantly surprised if we got to see a Cat 5 out in the Atlantic. The last Cat 5 was Felix in 2007 right?


Yes.

Click for da loop
Quoting Civicane49:


Yes.
5 years is quite a dry streak for what I am used to. 2003-2007 made me expect a Cat 5 every year.
1032. Patrap
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

02:01 UTC

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

1033. JLPR2


Hmm...

That's all. XD
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
5 years is quite a dry streak for what I am used to. 2003-2007 made me expect a Cat 5 every year.


Yep.
Oh man thats real bad for China and vietnam, more than likely the death toll will be high and alot of flooding to come.I sen't Dr master a message about a week ago in regards to the NOAA "Genesis" and the the rapid intensification and how science is unable to predict a hurricane,typhoon,or cyclones strength through this rapidly intensifying phaze.well its to late for those people now going from a managable situation to a very dangerous situation at best, dam shame.Same very thing can happen within a hurricane in the gulf of mexico's loop current region, given the right conditions low wind shear and a moist environment around the system."Earl" in 2010 was there first storm that this program has anayllized in regards to this topic using drones that can stay around a storm for many more hours than a conventional hurricane hunter aircraft.I pray for all those affected by vicente,im very sad.
1036. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting JLPR2:


Hmm...

That's all. XD
Well lets see=
Low shear: Not in the E ATL (30 knots) but it dies off
Warm water: Yes/marginal
Moist air: Yes
Low pressure/vorticy: No low, some vorticy
Time: Yes, lots of time to develop
Model support: Not really
Final summary: Low chance of development.
This is not sarcastic or meant to bemean if it is in some way or fashion.
Quoting StormHype:


I believe you are so focused in future prospects for technology, you are missing how to get from A to B. Of course land becomes invaluable in terms of USD when a govt can print money willy nilly. So does a gallon of gasoline, as it has more BTU's than a $1000 bill. Paper money is a belief system only. When it is abused (like now with a printing press and ballooning debt), people lose confidence in it, and prices of real things go up and up.


Currency is entirely insufficient, and in any case where it exists it should be definited in terms of quantifiable resources, and not the other way around.

For example, the dollar should be defined as an exact, unchanging number of Joules of energy, not a fairy tale printing press, nor a sentimental trinket such as gold or silver.


The energy value of a Whopper in U.S. is actually only about 3 or 4 cents when evaluated against the price of electrity, or about 2.5 cents when evaluated against the energy content of a gallon of Gasoline, or perhaps 10 cents when evaluated against the net work obtained from an internal combustion engine burning a gallon of gasoline.


As you can see, the problem with artificially defined currency is that it's "value" is entirely arbitrary, and varies by orders of magnitude from transaction to transaction in both energy quantification and material quantification.


What you forget is people aren't going to work and create your new technology to allow for utopia for just a pat on the back. They want to prosper and be on top of the heap. It's human nature. (i.e. an employee at Apple isn't in it solely for the fun.) What you mention would only work in a system like the Soviets had. Ask them how their quality of life was overall during that system. Only people who did well were those who were cronies of the govt... actually sounds like we are headed on the same path in the US under the current administration.


You are missing a key point, and even the Jetsons authors missed this, if you have robots, ranging from nanoscale to macroscopic, which do all the menial labor, far beyond today's levels, then everyone works in research and development, or social services, etc.

There is no mechanic because the machines know ho to repair themselves.

There is no plumber because a mole worth of nano-bots can build the pipes and install them from the carbon and silicon in the dirt on site.

There is no Wal Mart because a few pounds of nano-machines can build whatever you want from the dirt in your back yard (it contains enough trace elements in nano-quantities to make whatever you want, even if it requires rare earths or such.)


The Soviet Union still operated under historical ranges of value systems.

An Omega Point civilization needs no currency, and humans work only in R&D, and if you want a palace your self-replicating nano-bots can build it for you from the dirt at the site for free. They could perhaps even build food proteins and carbohydrates directly from the soil in the same way plants do, but with potentially less material waste (i.e. most of the mass of a Corn plant is not suitable for direct human consumption, and if not for it being convenient to be feed for livestock, it would represent total waste).

Building some solar panels or refining some trace metals available at the site should pay for any additional material or energy resources required.

How do I know this? Nature does it just fine in forests and food crops and fishery stocks to the point that humans consume these things and they replace themselves, with a bit of responsible management anyway.
I really dont want to wait for the storms but Im going to anyway. *Yawns*
Overnight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. North northwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
1040. JLPR2
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well lets see=
Low shear: Not in the E ATL (30 knots) but it dies off
Warm water: Yes/marginal
Moist air: Yes
Low pressure/vorticy: No low, some vorticy
Time: Yes, lots of time to develop
Model support: Not really
Final summary: Low chance of development.
This is not sarcastic or meant to bemean if it is in some way or fashion.


Don't be a party pooper, let me dream. xD
Quoting JLPR2:


Don't be a party pooper, let me dream. xD
Oh all right:) We really need a TS in the Atlantic or the blog will collapse.
1043. JLPR2
I wonder how much the GFS will strengthen it this time...
1044. ncstorm
GFS running
1045. JLPR2
We might have something on the GFS, 1008mb low at 42hrs.

*happiness...
Quoting gulfbreeze:
That is my worst nightmare go to bed seeing a cat1 and waking up to a cat 4 or 5 in your backyard!!


I bet a lot of us share that sentiment. Bill Read once said that was what kept them all awake at night at the NHC. Intensity is still hard too predict. Audrey in 1957 is an example of this somewhat. They went to bed thinking a cat 2 would hit the next evening. They woke up to a cat 4 bearing down on them that morning.
Strong tropical wave/tropical depression at 48 hours.

Quoting flsky:
Expected some interesting storms in Ponce Inlet, FL today, but only got a couple of hours of gentle rain - which I'm happy for, mind you, but I always love it when we get some righteous thunder and lightning. Oh well, tomorrow's another day here abouts....


We actually didn't get intense thunderstorms today here in Central Pinellas which is pretty rare lately lol. We have been pounded so many times.

It's funny though, even though rain chances were expected to be much higher today, as soon as I woke up from work and saw the steering flow for convection was south to north, I knew we wouldn't get anything today.

A south to north pattern always leads to almost the entire county of Pinellas not getting any rain at all, yet forecasts over the years never seem to catch this, even though I was clearly aware of this after about being 12 years old or so. It's because the lower atmosphere will quickly stabilize here with daytime heating the trajectory of the wind from south to north over the small peninsula of this county causes the sea breeze to jump across the bay early morning sweeping rain chances away from us even on the most active days.
Quoting PensacolaNative:


Our local university found no oil on the sea floor off our shores. Last two years beautiful beaches!


There are many natural oil seeps under the ocean. IIRC the Gulf leaks per year about what the BP spill released. The BP spill roughly doubled the annual oil input.

There are microbes that eat most of the oil and researchers reported a great increase in their number following the spill. There apparently are no microbes that can eat the heaviest of the oil components. These are the 'tar balls' that wash up on shores. They were around long before we started drilling under water for oil.

--

That's not in defense of drilling underwater (or anywhere) for oil. Just what I think is the science of the spill and recovery.

We need to get off fossil fuels ASAP.

1053. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


C'mon TW I believe in you!

But do dissipate before reaching the islands or go north.

XD
84 hours
1055. ncstorm
the GFS starts developing the wave at 36 hours..
1056. JLPR2
Seems most of the night crew took the night off.
Quoting wxchaser97:
84 hours


Weaker as of the 00Z model run at 84 hrs. 1013mbar vs. 1010mbar from earlier. A little bit further north though it's difficult to say if that difference is significant.
90 hrs has the first low at 1011mb and is that the second wave or something else about to come off Africa?
Looks like the pattern is not so aggressive for the Caribbean.... GFS is already begin to move storms to the north or out to sea...
96 hrs has a closed 1013mb low, is this a TD?
Does anyone know,...what the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon VICENTE. I followed it only casually,...then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at land fall. Since I was not following it closely,...and the weather-underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to cat 4,...I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was,...did it set a record or anything? How fast,...did it explode from 1 to 4,...and what minimum pressure did it achieve??
ANyone know???

Matt
Quoting JLPR2:
Seems most of the night crew took the night off.
I'll be here for awhile:)
Quoting nofailsafe:


Weaker as of the 00Z model run at 84 hrs. 1013mbar vs. 1010mbar from earlier. A little bit further north though it's difficult to say if that difference is significant.
If its weaker the entire run and farther north then its something to look into, for now lets let the run continue and see.
108 hrs, still closed and 1013mb
Quoting rocketboy108:
Does anyone know,...what the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon VICENTE. I followed it only casually,...then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at land fall. Since I was not following it closely,...and the weather-underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to cat 4,...I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was,...did it set a record or anything? How fast,...did it explode from 1 to 4,...and what minimum pressure did it achieve??
ANyone know???

Matt

The pressure went from 970 millibars with 80 mph winds at one advisory to 933 millibars with 140 mph winds at the next (lowest attained). That qualifies as rapid intensification, but not explosive intensification since it did not continue for at least 12 hours.

This is not a record.
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.
Quoting wxchaser97:
108 hrs, still closed and 1013mb


Don't turn north :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.
Hi Kori how are you?
1068. JLPR2


126hrs, down again to 1010mb and a second low forming at the African Coast.
1069. duranta
Quoting BobWallace:


There are many natural oil seeps under the ocean. IIRC the Gulf leaks per year about what the BP spill released. The BP spill roughly doubled the annual oil input.

There are microbes that eat most of the oil and researchers reported a great increase in their number following the spill. There apparently are no microbes that can eat the heaviest of the oil components. These are the 'tar balls' that wash up on shores. They were around long before we started drilling under water for oil.

--

That's not in defense of drilling underwater (or anywhere) for oil. Just what I think is the science of the spill and recovery.

We need to get off fossil fuels ASAP.



Recent study by the University of Austin found a lack of diversity among bacteria on the beaches at Grand Isle in La. and Dauphin Island, Al. They are doing testing of beaches up and down the Gulf coast. This lack of diversity occurred in Alaska just before the collapse of the fisheries there. I wouldn't say "mission accomplished" just yet.
850mbar vorticity.

141 hours, second wave is off of CV. First wave is still holding.

1071. JLPR2
Seems the next days are going to be interesting, whether they develop or not, these next waves seem like good discussion material.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.


Hey Kori!

How are you doing?
Quoting JLPR2:


126hrs, down again to 1010mb and a second low forming at the African Coast.


...and turning WNW :(
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.
Hey Kori, good to see ya!
132 hrs, the 1st low still closed with 1012mb and next wave coming of Africa with 1008mb pressure.

Quoting JLPR2:
Seems the next days are going to be interesting, whether they develop or not, these next waves seem like good discussion material.


sure
Quoting wxchaser97:
Hey Kori, good to see ya!
132 hrs, the 1st low still closed with 1012mb and next wave coming of Africa with 1008mb pressure.



Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
Quoting rocketboy108:
Does anyone know,...what the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon VICENTE. I followed it only casually,...then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at land fall. Since I was not following it closely,...and the weather-underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to cat 4,...I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was,...did it set a record or anything? How fast,...did it explode from 1 to 4,...and what minimum pressure did it achieve??
ANyone know???

Matt

While offically it went from cat1 to cat4 in a very short time, ADT suggested it was stronger than a cat1 in the first place. Even if you go just by offical numbers this is not a record.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
I agree.
156 hrs
162 hrs, a TS is here
00z GFS 174 hours:

The second wave definitely becomes a tropical depression by 168 hours.

Why are we still using such primitive 2-d mapping systems for weather and climate data when computers are capable of rendering far more accurate globe maps which don't distort the size of anomaly features from latitude to latitude?

It's a curiosity to me that we can take a highly advanced computer information system and turn it back into a primitive centuries or millennium old mapping technology for display, instead of rendering an accurate map.

I'm sitting in front of a machine that can do 10 billion calculations per second, yet I'm still looking at a 360 year old form of 2 dimensional representation for a spherical planet...
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
Not as strong as bill but same setup and strength same or stronger than Ana for 2nd t-wave.
168 hrs
174 hrs at 1007mb
Strengthens into a tropical storm by 180 hours.

By 183hrs it looks like we're losing CV-1.

CV-2 is still holding strong though.

Still strengthening.

TS at 192 hrs
Could the first wave develop into something even a invest or not?
204 hrs
Quoting wxchaser97:
TS at 192 hrs


Wow at still along 10N!!! Could be very interesting.
CHOO CHOO!
Quoting wxchaser97:
TS at 192 hrs


Wow,what a way to begin August,of course if it occurs in reallity.
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow,what a way to begin August,of course if it occurs in reallity.


Lol I can't be more agree : "IF ITS NOT A GHOST STORM"
999mb TS at 252 hrs, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Quoting wxchaser97:
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening

CHOO CHOO! Cv hurricane?
Quoting wxchaser97:
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening


hmm turning north at bit
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lol I can't be more agree : "IF ITS NOT A GHOST STORM"


Well, if the GFS is any indicator, we'll have a couple days to sit around before the second wave pops off the coast.
00z GFS 324 hours:

Quoting wxchaser97:
999mb TS at 252 hrs, there is light at the end of the tunnel.


OMFG I'm sweathing
1106. ncstorm
Hurricane..

Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:



OMG ISLAND STRIKE!
Was worried about you Koritheman. Never seen you gone for such a stretch. What's the skinny? You were going through one of the most important moments of your life when you last left us. While I agree with you 70% of the time, the other 30%; I'm guessing we couldn't agree less. Never mattered to me, everything I've ever said to you still stands. The best brother!
997 at 276 hrs
1110. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:


That looks a little too close for comfort. Thank goodness it is so far out, 312hrs isn't exactly reliable.
Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:


That ridging HAS US Written ALL OVER IT.
995 at 312
Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:



That's a bit far south for my taste.
I've got issues to attend to. Shoot me a kite if you get the chance Kori. Be back later, hope all is well for you weather lovers. Even those on the Right coast. :)
i'm excited but i know i'l be disappointed soon lol
Quoting JLPR2:


That looks a little too close for comfort. Thank goodness it is so far out, 312hrs isn't exactly reliable. :D


What a timing to start August with a boom. At least we will be tracking something after the very quiet period after Debby. CaribBoy,where are you located?
324 has a 994mb storm impacting the Lesser Antilies
could impact the N Islands as a hurricane
I thought there will be a trough to turn it out as hurrican23 added earlier
Quoting JLPR2:


That looks a little too close for comfort. Thank goodness it is so far out, 312hrs isn't exactly reliable.


Yep.
Quoting wxchaser97:
324 has a 994mb storm impacting the Lesser Antilies


Oh look, another 1013mb low just behind it...
1122. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What a timing to start August with a boom. At least we will be tracking something after the very quiet period after Debby.


I would be happy with just one storm.
00Z GFS IS HAPPY
Wow 992mb at 348hrs, reliable or not this is something.
Quoting CaribBoy:
00Z GFS IS HAPPY


In what island you are located?
Firstly, let me say that, for lack of a better term, my life has been a roller coaster. Ever since I told my father [my sexual orientation], from the night we came home from Gulfport up to exactly a week ago, he became distant and disturbed. I had never seen him that way in my life. Not at me, at least. We had a birthday party for Daniel, the youngest of my siblings who just made a year, the Friday before last. After everyone had left, my dad was already upset at what he deemed to be fuel to the fire on top of an already heated family drama. I tried to calm him down and explain that if I know those people as well as I think I do, then I know they didn't mean anything by it. That didn't fly with him, however, and he got angry and started saying "Don't get all philosophical on me tonight, Kori. You're not going to get me upset, nor your grandmother", as if I have an agenda of some sort toward my family.

Fast forward a bit and my step mother randomly brings up religion. I normally don't mind discussing/debating religion, but eventually dad starts blaming my atheism on my best friend Andrew, who lives in Ohio, but whom I have never actually met (that was part of the reason, at first, that I wanted a job). I said "But dad, I don't even listen to him. My viewpoints are my own. They weren't formed because of him." He got up, cut me off, and yelled at me to shut up while heading for one of the bedrooms. Now, dad never tells me to shut up, so at that point I knew he was upset with me. And I knew it was because of what I had told him, he was just using that night's events to justify his frustration. Now I'm a guy who is not easily offended. I am one of the most thick-skinned people I know. However, the things he said to me -- his attitude toward me that night -- were completely unwarranted. I'm his son, and I felt like an utter stranger. Like my father was steadily deserting me.

So at that point my grandmother asks us to all get off the topic because she hates to hear me talk about her god in a negative manner. I was already pissed at dad, so at that point I became angry at her as well. I said that I didn't consider this family my household any longer. You know, one of those moments where you say something you shouldn't, and end up regretting it later. With that, I storm out the front door, and walk down the street alone. It was 10:30 PM, there were few streetlights, so theoretically it wasn't the safest thing to do. But I didn't care. I was angry. I felt alone. I wanted to talk with my father, but knew he wouldn't have it. Not in that state of mind. I go back inside and spend the rest of the night in the confines of my bedroom.

The turning point came this past Monday. I had bought some zinc supplements at Walmart, and was taking them for upwards of two months on an almost daily basis. The end result was zinc toxicity (let's not get into how stupid that was :P). Symptomatic with such a thing was fatigue, random and persistent nausea, shock, extreme sweating, anemia (grandmother went to take my blood sugar and there was no blood), and high blood pressure (at one point it was 140 over 180). I called my dad over to get me to the hospital, because my aunt was at work with the only vehicle we have right now, and I really thought I was going to die. I've never felt that horrible in my life. Literally. He gets over there, and I start crying. Uncontrollably and compulsively. I hadn't cried like that in awhile, and my dad later told my step mother he had never seen me that upset before. Dad gestures for me to get up, and gives me a hug. I couldn't stop crying. A few moments later, crying with me, he says "I love you." That was the first time I had heard those words since I told him I was bisexual. Longer than that actually (we were having issues with me wanting a relationship with my biological mother since he holds very strong resentment toward her).

Well, that was all I needed to hear. At that point I knew I still had a dad, and it was the single happiest moment of my life. And yes, I survived the poisoning.

Hope that clears up my absence for those of you who missed it. Been one hell of a journey. Things are normal between us now.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow 992mb at 348hrs, reliable or not this is something.


I don't really know if that trough over the northeast US has enough amplitude to recurve it.
360 hrs
384 hours:

Well, that would be bad.

1131. ncstorm
on that run it looks to be more of a bahamas storm and it looks like it will miss the PR/Dominicans islands..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


In what island you are located?


I'm on the path of this hypothetic storm (st maarten)
No, its head for FL. 991mb at 384hrs, this is not good.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that would be bad.



Is there a trough that may turn it away from the US?
Quick question

What isobar do hurricanes usually follow ? Tia
1137. ncstorm
welcome to the GFS first run of a cape verde hurricane..otherwise known as the wave train..
well, the path is somewhat similar to Earl's
Quoting ncstorm:
on that run it looks to be more of a bahamas storm and it looks like it will miss the PR/Dominicans islands..


But PR/VI by not too much.
So it begins. MWAHAHAHA
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is there a trough that may turn it away from the US?
Sadly it does not look like a trough will save FL.
I'm looking hard but see no trough
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is there a trough that may turn it away from the US?

I doubt it's amplified enough to.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that would be bad.



Yep.
1146. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Glad to see everything is normal. :)
Though the Zinc poisoning worried me, glad to know that it went away.
OH great Kori!!! Now you've got me crying. (inside) I've got drug addled teenagers and young twenty somethings to counsel tonight. You give me hope, as a Christian, I love you for being you. You have no duplicity, you are only who you are. I've got to go for a couple hours, but Kori you are one of the reasons I like this site so much. You have a very sharp mind, and a solid heart. Peace and much love. And as I said earlier, everything I've ever said to you stands. Thank you so much for the update. You Father loves you very much. Not all of us here know how that feels. A Father's affirmation means so much.
Quoting Eyewall07:
Quick question

What isobar do hurricanes usually follow ? Tia

Generally 1016 millibar.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.
Wow... u missed all the excitement of a) the blob of the season on Sunday and b) Vicente.

Hope everything else is ok w/ u...
Well this is one model run I thought I wouldnt see for awhile. FL might be in for a hurricane if this pans out so that would make 3 landfalls before peak season.
1151. ncstorm
tropic..(PR/DOM)those islands would still see effects..



another way of looking at it..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... u missed all the excitement of a) the blob of the season on Sunday and b) Vicente.

Hope everything else is ok w/ u...


I'm fine! Vincente is just full of surprises, I see. How delightful.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Generally 1016 millibar.


Thanks TA. I usually lurk but want to get more involved
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that would be bad.

If that is Ernesto and don`t recurve things are going to be bad.
Quoting JLPR2:


Glad to see everything is normal. :)
Though the Zinc poisoning worried me, glad to know that it went away.


Trust me bro, you don't want it. lol
Quoting allancalderini:
If that is Ernesto and don`t recurve things are going to be bad.


Agreed.
On a speculative note, I've always had a bad feeling about Ernesto ever since it was churning the Caribbean in 2006. Just sayin.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.


I'm glad that you're okay now.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well this is one model run I thought I wouldnt see for awhile. FL might be in for a hurricane if this pans out so that would make 3 landfalls before peak season.


Wait, you mean things might actually return to normal? Who would have thought...
Quoting KoritheMan:
On a speculative note, I've always had a bad feeling about Ernesto ever since it was churning the Caribbean in 2006. Just sayin.
I had miss you You are one of my favorite bloggers in here hope everything from now on is happiness for you.
Quoting Civicane49:


I'm glad that you're okay now.


Thanks bro!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks bro!


No problem! :)
anyways do the GFS show a pre-florence or something like that in the run?
Quoting allancalderini:
I had miss you You are one of my favorite bloggers in here hope everything from now on is happiness for you.


I missed you too, buddy! I feel quite at home here right now.
1061 rocketboy108: Does anyone know the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon Vicente? I followed it only casually, then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at landfall.
Since I was not following it closely -- and the weather-underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to cat 4 -- I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was.
Did it set a record or anything? How fast did it explode from 1 to 4?


14:01(UTC)(2:01pmGMT) - 976.9(millibars) - 65.0(knots)
14:32(UTC)(2:32pmGMT) - 962.1(millibars) - 82.2(knots)
15:01(UTC)(3:01pmGMT) - 957.2(millibars) - 87.4(knots)
15:32(UTC)(3:32pmGMT) - 954.8(millibars) - 90.0(knots)
16:01(UTC)(4:01pmGMT) - 947.0(millibars) - 97.2(knots)
16:32(UTC)(4:32pmGMT) - 941.8(millibars) - 102.0(knots)
17:01(UTC)(5:01pmGMT) - 933.4(millibars) - 109.8(knots)
17:14(UTC)(5:14pmGMT) - 933.4(millibars) - 109.8(knots)
17:32(UTC)(5:32pmGMT) - 933.4(millibars) - 109.8(knots)
18:32(UTC)(6:32pmGMT) - 933.3(millibars) - 109.8(knots)
19:01(UTC)(7:01pmGMT) - 933.3(millibars) - 109.8(knots)
2012JUL23 19:32(UTC) (7:32pmGMT , ~8minutes before landfall)
(MinimumPressure of) 933.3(millibars)
(MaximumSustainedWinds of) 109.8(knots)126.4mph(203.3k/h)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I missed you too, buddy! I feel quite at home here right now.
glad to hear that.
1168. ncstorm
Im going to bed but keep in mind if this is to develop, trying to speculate where this is going will make you crazy..just be prepare if anything comes your way..

Good night!
1169. Patrap
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

04:01 UTC


1170. JRRP
finalmente algo de entretenimiento
1171. ryang
Hello, Kori! Long time no see...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, you mean things might actually return to normal? Who would have thought...

Really good to see you again even though I just started posting a few weeks ago so you might not know who I am. Seems like the cv season and August could start with a bang. In recent years, what is the definition of normal, though its interesting to see a cane headed for FL.
Quoting ryang:
Hello, Kori! Long time no see...


Whoa now! All you guys are saying hello this evening! Aren't I special? :P

Nice to see you again.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Really good to see you again even though I just started posting a few weeks ago. Seems like the cv season and August could start with a bang. In recent years, what is the definition of normal, though its interesting to see a cane headed for FL.


I recall reading somewhere that an average of 4 named storms and about one hurricane hit the US each year.
1175. ryang
Based on that GFS run, we should see some action during the next two weeks. Consistency is key though.
Quoting allancalderini:
anyways do the GFS show a pre-florence or something like that in the run?


Not really, but the GFS forecasts a tropical wave with weak low pressure behind the future Ernesto by 288 to 312 hours. However, it doesn't show further development.

Quoting ryang:
Consistency is key though.


Especially in the 0z and 12z runs.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I recall reading somewhere that an average of 4 named storms and about one hurricane hit the US each year.
Seems about right, things should get active in the next week.
1179. ryang
Quoting KoritheMan:


Especially in the 0z and 12z runs.


Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows.
Quoting ncstorm:
on that run it looks to be more of a bahamas storm and it looks like it will miss the PR/Dominicans islands..
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....



One positive for development is that we actually have a wave. It's not like it's speculating a storm two weeks out with no solid basis.
Now to see if other reliable models jump on board with this solution, if so watch out SE US.
125. OracleDeAtlantis 8:46 AM GMT on July 18, 2012

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If this region continues to break, watch out on the Northeast side.


And there is the reflection I was waiting for. Note that without exception, since I initially published my Watch Area, when a break has occurred inside this region, there has been a 5.0 or greater echo on the northeast side. If my memory is correct, each reflection, and I believe there have been four 5.0 or greater events, has occurred within three days on the opposing side. By "northeast side," I mean the San Andreas of California, up to the Oregon Coast.

I've been asked how I made the connection between these two regions and I can only say that it is strictly intuition. However, I have an arguably good track record for correctly identifying foreshocks, including the two largest events of the past three years.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....


Agreed.... things about to get interesting in the Atlantic.... hope nothing too bad happens with Ernesto
Quoting allancalderini:
If that is Ernesto and don`t recurve things are going to be bad.
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(
Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(


Florence.
Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(


Florence.
Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...

hello and yeah.... well i wish u the best of luck and hopefully nothing stronger then a few showers hits you
Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember


Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...


Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...
Need to catch my breath, that was an exciting hour.
Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.

yeah it is fairly active down there... I got hit by Irene too while it was a tropical storm and i didnt think it did too much damage before i realized it split my big like 100-200 year old tree in half...
Quoting KoritheMan:




Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...

and haha ive tried to but my computer is having issues
Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
The F storm last year was Franklin, a weak 45mph storm that lasted for 2 days and formed N of Bermuda.
All I can say is, watch out for Isaac.

HE'S COMING TO GET YOU GUYS! HUNKER DOWN! NOW!
Quoting KoritheMan:




Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...
Hey! Our friendship is based on those avatar pics! lol
Quoting KoritheMan:
All I can say is, watch out for Isaac.

HE'S COMING TO GET YOU GUYS! HUNKER DOWN! NOW!
Thats my name and the past few Isaac's have been hurricanes.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.
Quoting JRRP:
finalmente algo de entretenimiento

Y para cual fecha es esto?
Quoting allancalderini:
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.


Yeah, you guys generally have it rough. I would much rather be hit by a major hurricane living in Louisiana than I would a slow-moving tropical depression living in Honduras or Nicaragua. No offense.
Quoting allancalderini:
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night
Quoting Doppler22:

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night
I remember that the F are really bad for your country ex Frances and Floyd.
Quoting Doppler22:

yeah it is fairly active down there... I got hit by Irene too while it was a tropical storm and i didnt think it did too much damage before i realized it split my big like 100-200 year old tree in half...

and haha ive tried to but my computer is having issues
We got sooo lucky here in Nassau... worst of the winds here were just barely hurricane strength at the eastern end of the island, and we were on the western side, which wasn't the worst of the storm. Nevertheless, the 24 hour period was interminable. The other lucky thing for us is that the islands that were badly hit are relatively unpopulated... sort of like the King Ranch TX of the Bahamas...
Well, I'm making the move (by truck) from Miami to Tallahassee on August 10th, will lil Ernst' be a major storm making a landfall in Florida at that time?



I demand it doesn't.


It's not an UNREASONABLE demand is it?
1206. GPTGUY
Quoting Doppler22:

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night


Same here in Mississippi..Camille, Fredric, Elena, Georges, Katrina.
Quoting RussianWinter:
Well, I'm making the move (by truck) from Miami to Tallahassee on August 10th, will lil Ernst' be a major storm making a landfall in Florida at that time?



I demand it doesn't.


It's not an UNREASONABLE demand is it?


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


Whoa now! All you guys are saying hello this evening! Aren't I special? :P

Nice to see you again.

Hey Kori, i'm not much of a blogger on this site, but glad to see you back. We've missed you and I've missed your expertise on tropical weather.
Quoting GPTGUY:


Same here in Mississippi..Camille, Fredric, Elena, Georges, Katrina.


Aren't you that YouTube guy? The one that uploaded all those TWC movies? Dj whatever your name is?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, you guys generally have it rough. I would much rather be hit by a major hurricane living in Louisiana than I would a slow-moving tropical depression living in Honduras or Nicaragua. No offense.
yeah I remember 2008 when td 16 that almost become Paloma kill 75 people in here. my house was flood , and here in La Ceiba was a mess. it was worse than Felix that was a cat 5 that made landfall in Nicaragua.
Quoting lobdelse81:

Y para cual fecha es esto?
La segunda semana de agosto, pienso.
Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, i'm not much of a blogger on this site, but glad to see you back. We've missed you and I've missed your expertise on tropical weather.


Hey man. Good to see you too.
1213. GPTGUY
Quoting KoritheMan:


Aren't you that YouTube guy? The one that uploaded all those TWC movies? Dj whatever your name is?


That would be me yes
Quoting KoritheMan:


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P


Lulz. Seriously though, last thing I need when transferring to FSU is a storm over Florida during move in day, I already payed my first months rent and I can't afford to lose time because I need time to search for a part-time job.

Knowing me though, I think my luck (and Florida's) has run out =(.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Quoting GPTGUY:


That would be me yes


I just want you to know how entertained you've kept me during nights of entertainment duress.
Quoting allancalderini:
I remember that the F are really bad for your country ex Frances and Floyd.
Now that u mention, they did hit both the Bahamas and the Carolinas [sorry, press]. The I's are not as consistent e.g. Isabel, the storm in both our avatars, didnt hit here.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Lulz. Seriously though, last thing I need when transferring to FSU is a storm over Florida during move in day, I already payed my first months rent and I can't afford to lose time because I need time to search for a part-time job.

Knowing me though, I think my luck (and Florida's) has run out =(.


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi
SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N115W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N113W 14N114W TO THE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND
117W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol
90E down to 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THE CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN


Good night all.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol
Im doing the same thing, I'll stay alittle longer.
1225. GPTGUY
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just want you to know how entertained you've kept me during nights of entertainment duress.



lol..hey no problem man..it started out with just showin that Mississippi was hit by Katrina and showing people what we went through over here because it was all New Orleans...but then I just kept gettin requests for more and older footage. Im glad you enjoy the clips thanks.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol


It's not Hurricane Day, save your all-nighters, for the storms.
Quoting KoritheMan:


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P


Yep, they go herp derp all over the place until they fizzle.
Quoting BahaHurican:
We got sooo lucky here in Nassau... worst of the winds here were just barely hurricane strength at the eastern end of the island, and we were on the western side, which wasn't the worst of the storm. Nevertheless, the 24 hour period was interminable. The other lucky thing for us is that the islands that were badly hit are relatively unpopulated... sort of like the King Ranch TX of the Bahamas...


The only major to hit the U.S. and not be retired. It also broke the longest hurricane drought in TX history of 10 years. We're on 4 years now. Maybe we'll make another run at the record?

One AM on a Monday night in South Central Wisconsin, yet another enlightening night. All hours are God's hours. OHWAHSAGOOSIAM Boy scout anthem I once heard while at an Eagle's camp. I got it, eventually.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N95W TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 24/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM
21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-94W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
27N86W. THE 1018 MB SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 24/0300 UTC FROM THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE
APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W TO 25N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-97W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 26N TUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO NEAR 20N70W SUPPORTING A LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 29N BETWEEN 58W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N24W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W
TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N41W ALONG 26N56W TO A THIRD
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N71W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
SAINT AUGUSTINE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN
DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN BUT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME
DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES N OF AREA.

I am not sure if I will be surprised or not if that non tropical becomes something if Jose could this one maybe.
Night everyone, should be interesting to see the next ECMWF and GFS.
Quoting allancalderini:
I am not sure if I will be surprised or not if that non tropical becomes something if Jose could this one maybe.
There is a spin/low and convection so its possible.
I forget what General we had recently that got sacked for a bad comment in Rolling Stone, but he went on two hours of sleep his entire service to this great country of ours. God Bless America and Oorah! to those who serve. Little shout out to my retired Marine Father-In-Law.
Looking forward to see the next GFS run in the morning. Night all.
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i was very surprised to see yellow mark tonight with 10%
The night that keeps on giving, now Im out until later. Bye.
I of coarse know this General's name. I just want others to participate. It's late. :)
Quoting Tribucanes:
I of coarse know this General's name. I just want others to participate. It's late. :)


Lol. You lost me on the boy scout thing. It is late. :)
And I've got to go again. On the cusp of freedom and life in a place they don't want to be for some I counsel. Got to go again. What has the world done to us?
has anyone look that every name that pagasa replaced last year for tropical cyclones all of them were females.
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
nice big t.storms off the east coast we need to watch it because is moving southeast right in the warmer water!!
persistance is the key my friend.
No one's really up, but I did a blog.
I left out an O in that Boy Scout Anthem. Alas, it was a long time ago. :) Out for now; gotta love the third shift crew; committed. I have fixed that O issue.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I left out an O in that Boy Scout Anthem. Alas, it was a long time ago. :) Out for now; gotta love the third shift crew; committed. I have fixed that O issue.

O nO.

From BBC News
Hong Kong lashed by strong typhoon





A strong typhoon hit Hong Kong overnight, leaving scores injured, hundreds of trees felled and many flights cancelled or delayed.

Typhoon Vicente hit late on Monday, bringing winds of more than 140 km/h (87 mph) and heavy downpours.

The storm warning was briefly raised to the highest level of 10 for the first time in 13 years but downgraded on Tuesday as the storm passed.

Trading on the stock exchange was temporarily delayed on Tuesday morning.

The stock exchange was expected to resume trading in the afternoon.

Although the typhoon was forecast to move away from Hong Kong across western Guangdong, the Hong Kong Observatory warned that gale force winds were still prevailing on Tuesday morning.

Authorities warned that flight disruptions could continue.

More than 100 people aged between four and 86 sought treatment at public hospitals and at least 72 were hospitalised, officials said.

Flooding has also been reported in some areas and hundreds of trees were felled overnight.

The Hong Kong government has opened 24 temporary shelters and more than 250 people have sought refuge.

The Airport Authority said that between midnight (1600 GMT) to 0800 local time, 60 flights had been cancelled, 60 delayed and another 16 diverted.

Public transportation systems were resuming service gradually on Tuesday morning.





Hong Kong is cleaning up after a severe typhoon struck the city Tuesday with gale-force winds and rain.
Hong Kong Hospital Authority reported at least 129 people were injured, none fatally.
Typhoon Vicente caused the city to raise its strongest typhoon warning in 13 years.
Quoting wxchaser97:

um,,, say what!!!!!
Helloooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!
Anyone here??????
Where is the night shift, did the night shift fall asleep?
Thanks for the update Aussie, glad the reports haven't been worse. Strong Typhoon, shocking if that's the worst of the stories to come. Crossing my fingers.
I'll be back and forth. Talking to a small group and checking in while I check on my daughter upstairs. Really hard to tell what our August and September will bring us here. Could go either way. More concerned about the geo-political storms coming in August and September. Want to see a category five; just wait.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for the update Aussie, glad the reports haven't been worse. Strong Typhoon, shocking if that's the worst of the stories to come. Crossing my fingers.

Well, they are very well prepared there so i am not really surprised.
Vicente still holding together well
24HR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
Issued at 5pm, 24 July 2012

The low pressure area (LPA) was located at 860km E of Mindanao (7.0N, 135.0E). Meanwhile, another low pressure (LPA) was estimated at 320km ENE of Tuguegarao City (18.0N, 125.0E).

Northern & Central Luzon will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers & thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over extreme N. Luzon which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Southern Luzon & Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.
1258. LargoFl
CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
1259. LargoFl
1260. LargoFl
.................................Good Morning Folks..here's the 7-day forecast for the Tampa Bay area...............and we have a Yellow circle out in the Atlantic this morning, have a great day folks
1261. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:

That disturbance over the Yucatan may be persistent.. it's already lighting things up in TX. Bret is an interesting analogue: Cat 3 at landfall.
Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.



1264. Walshy
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
515 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012

Consequently...the focus
bullseye for convection today appears to be along and west of the
I-77 corridor...with the Bristol-Abingdon area appearing to be in
the center of any potential mesoscale convective system. Drier air begins to advect SW
into the northern part of the County Warning Area toward evening. With this
thinking in mind...have advertised likely to categorical probability of precipitation
generally from blf-mkj...west and SW...with chance probability of precipitation to the east. The
lowest probability of precipitation are across the Piedmont region. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk
advertised for the entire County Warning Area...but again thinking is that the
main threat for severe will be across our far S WV...SW WV...and northwest
NC counties. If the mesoscale convective system becomes more organized than currently
expected...we could be dealing with another derecho and a more
widespread damaging wind event for areas east of the alleghanys as
well. As such...Storm Prediction Center is hinting at a potential moderate risk if
this becomes evident later in the day. The hail threat should be
mostly confined to areas west of I-77 given current thinking.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012

Better shear will increase the chance of severe storms across
the region and Storm Prediction Center has put the entire County Warning Area in a slight risk area for
severe storms today. The main concern will be straight-line wind damage
but large hail and even an isolated tornado will also be possible this afternoon and evening.

Quoting aspectre:
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.

Yeah, but they did give it back. Probably in a better state than when they took it.

Vicente R.I'ed at a massive rate.

93W is getting it's act together. This could be the first real impacting Typhoon on the Philippines.

Palau Satellite

Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS about future developments in MDR.


THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.


Some pointed out that Saturday’s deluge was historic in nature, with the Global Times noting it was the heaviest rainstorm in the capital in 61 years. The worst-hit area of the city received 460 millimeters (18.4 inches) of rain on Saturday.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM 5jFJAqZW565P9IkxIfeeGaSn1L9ew?docId=94a1c1cc37b94e 3b8a28690365fa5af5
The worst-hit area of the city received 460 millimeters (18.4 inches) of rain on Saturday.

Try and plan for that.
The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.

Southern Japan saw nearly 3 feet of rain in just 4 days.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.



It's almost funny:

water
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z

90E is in trouble:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS about future developments in MDR.


THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.




Good Morning. That statistic of one every 5 to 5.5 days is consistent with the average number of waves which cross the Atlantic during the Cape Verde season (with only a small percentage who reach tropical depression status) and with the concept of storm "clusters" during the peak where we might get a string of 3-4 CV storms develop from waves over 20-30 day period if the MJO is up and there is no significant impediment like sheer or SAL issues. Here is the stat again from NOAA's Mariner's Guide to Tropical Cyclones:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds
As a system nears it's tipping point, it moves to the extremes, there it get's stuck. Before slamming to the other extreme.


The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.

Southern Japan saw nearly 3 feet of rain in just 4 days.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z



Remember that the 00z and 12z runs are the most complete with data.Let's wait to the 12z run and see what it has.
WOW that not Goood!!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z

There's a nasty line of severe-warned storms moving through Chicago and Northern Indiana this morning:

stom
And here is that GFS run: a little spotty on the development but something does spin up in the Central Atlantic.

Link

Quoting Neapolitan:
There's a nasty line of severe-warned storms moving through Chicago and Northern Indiana this morning:

stom


Neap,

Are these storms the precursor for a possible "Derecho" event later today??
Finally, here is the link to this morning's NCEP discussion for the Caribbean. It is rather long so I will not post it but there is no mention of the system spun up by the GFS. They do latch on to possible development of storms, in their outlooks from the past several seasons, when there is some model consensus.


Link


Back to lurking and work.
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Neap,

Are these storms the precursor for a possible "Derecho" event later today??
Margusity at Accuweather is already calling it a derecho on Twitter....
Aussie Antarctic scientist in climate studies breakthrough

AN Australian Antarctic scientist has made a climate studies breakthrough by examining how the earth warmed up after the last Ice Age.

Glaciologist Joel Pedro, from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, is part of an international team that has worked out how quickly carbon entered the atmosphere as a result of temperature rises beginning around 19,000 years ago.

The team discovered that CO2 increased naturally in the atmosphere much more quickly than previously thought during an 8000-year period of global warming.

"The new thing here is to pin down the time scales of how that worked in the past," Dr Pedro told AAP.

"If there was a lag at all then it was likely no more than 400 years.

"We can't rule out that the two just happen at the same time, whereas previously the figures were more like a thousand (years)."

The finding suggests "feedback" in the climate system - where temperature increases CO2, which in turn increases temperature - happens faster than expected.

It also lends support to theories that the oceans warmed more quickly than the 1000 years it was thought was needed for a significant change to occur.

Dr Pedro spent a month drilling ice cores at Law Dome near Casey Station in Eastern Antarctica in 2008-09.

His findings have just been published in the journal Climate of the Past.

The study has been hailed as a major step forward in understanding more recent problems, with US ice core specialist Eric Steig saying it has major implications for understanding the carbon cycle and climate change.

Dr Pedro says the study of natural warming only underlines the speed at which human-created climate change has occurred.

He says 8000 years' worth of natural CO2 increases have been created in the 200 years since the industrial revolution.

"Just as the steady increase in CO2 helped to melt the ice caps and warm the earth out of the ice age, the rapid increase now in CO2 is also driving up temperatures, only at a much faster rate," he said.

"What we're doing now is over a hundred times faster."
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's almost funny:

water

Nea,
Do you think that a possible water temp in excess of 30+/C or 80+/F is likely to have a damaging effect on the lakes aquatic life.
Surly the fish etc have not evolved recently coping with these types of temps.
Also is there a possibility of blue green algae formations or worse?
What a crazy day weather wise here in C FL yesterday. My area got 3" to 6" of rain last evening from a massive storm that developed and sat over much of C FL. I picked up 2.91" yesterday and let me tell my yard can't take any more rain now as I have had 10.60" of rain this month with over 23" since June 1st. Lake Mary to my north picked up 6.45" of rain in 2 hours. Amazing as that is nearly our monthly total for July and some places got that in 2 hours!


VIDEO - Heavy rain pounds downtown Orlando
Link





Looks like Cape Verde season is starting now as these are some very impressive waves rolling off Africa.

1266 Aussie's animation shows a ripple of cold hitting the sst's in the Gulf of Mexico, but that isn't what I am seeing on other sst images. ???
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like Cape Verde season is starting now as these are some very impressive waves rolling off Africa.


the next one is a little higher than the one currently exiting. But it also looks like the one following that is even lower than the first one.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.




Interesting to look at what has happened to the Aral Sea, though for different reasons connected to irrigation extractions.
If there is a warm dry winter after this summer in the Northern US and Canada, then lake levels may start to drop dramatically along with much reduced water flow in the Mississippi river.
None of this bodes well after a drought season this year.
Quoting biff4ugo:
1266 Aussie's animation shows a ripple of cold hitting the sst's in the Gulf of Mexico, but that isn't what I am seeing on other sst images. ???


You mean this one?

It's not water temp, it's Total Precipitable Water.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Aussie Antarctic scientist in climate studies breakthrough



Valid point. But what can be done? I mean we have all of these luxury's in life now that we didn't have years ago. How do you get everyone to stop driving a car, using electricity, hell using a computer? I mean if you give a kid a lollipop then try to take it away, he's gonna be pissed and want to fight you for it.
1294. ncstorm
SPC increased the area for slight risks today


and that is huge red patched area for wind damage today..


and tornados..


might be an ugly day today
Quoting aspectre:
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.
290 news reports so far according to Google... only 2 of them give any details at all NOT about Hong Kong... one reports 17 deaths so far. Amazing that in that densely populated area all one can hear is reports of how a city on the edge of the storm is fine.

1296. sabres
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Nea,
Do you think that a possible water temp in excess of 30+/C or 80+/F is likely to have a damaging effect on the lakes aquatic life.
Surly the fish etc have not evolved recently coping with these types of temps.
Also is there a possibility of blue green algae formations or worse?
I'm not sure about the algae (though it seems feasible". But the little fishies will be greatly inconvenienced. As one Purdue University professor puts it, "Facing an inhospitable habitat, fish either have to move or die."

Pretty blunt.

Here's a short list of interesting links on the subject:

--Global Warming and the Great Lakes

--THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION

--Researchers study how climate change chases fish from streams

--Map of various Us>s. habitats and their vulnerability to disruption due to climate change
1298. ncstorm
latest SPC discussion..this is shaping up to be a severe day for a lot of folks

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 KTS
ALONG THE MID-ATL COAST TO 45-50 KT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE PERPENDICULAR
TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Quoting ncstorm:
SPC increased the area for slight risks today


and that is huge red hatched area for wind damage today..


and tornados..


might be an ugly day today


do you realize that the wind threat is NOT hatched
Quoting sabres:
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.



About 15 to minutes SE of Orlando OIA has only had about 3" of rain for July but in Downtown Orlando the total is around 10" for the month. Crazy how the seabreezes work in FL as some areas get pounded repeatedly while others see very little rain.
Yes, that one. Thanks Aussie.
It was dry air and not cold water moving over the Gulf. Got it.
1302. ncstorm
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


do you realize that the wind threat is NOT hatched


thanks I will edit thundercloud..
Quoting sabres:
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.



Another thing is that this pattern reminds of 2004 before we started getting pounded by hurricanes as that year featured a strong east coast seabreeze daily during the month of July due a strong Bermuda High. Not saying a 2004 will happen but some things that are happening this year sure does resemble the pre hurricanes of 2004.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Valid point. But what can be done? I mean we have all of these luxury's in life now that we didn't have years ago. How do you get everyone to stop driving a car, using electricity, hell using a computer? I mean if you give a kid a lollipop then try to take it away, he's gonna be pissed and want to fight you for it.


I think what that article is saying is we are doing much more damage to this planet than first thought, how to reverse the damage? Whomever can answer that will be worth more money than all the gold in the earth.
So i saw the runs of the models yesterday night that showed a hurricane coming for the Leeward Islands.The hell?.
0Z GFS

Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not sure about the algae (though it seems feasible". But the little fishies will be greatly inconvenienced. As one Purdue University professor puts it, "Facing an inhospitable habitat, fish either have to move or die."

Pretty blunt.

Here's a short list of interesting links on the subject:

--Global Warming and the Great Lakes

--THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION

--Researchers study how climate change chases fish from streams

--Map of various Us>s. habitats and their vulnerability to disruption due to climate change

A Potentially dangerous situation would be:-
High temp increase.
Fertilizer runoff,
Algae build up.
Toxic wastes build up,
Plus drastically reduced rainfall, along with increased evaporation.
We might be on that path now!
You can see the path of the storm the GFS developes on the 0Z GFS run.

1310. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
So i saw the runs of the models yesterday night that showed a hurricane coming for the Leeward Islands.The hell?.


yeah I actually was on this morning when it was running..our first GFS cape verde hurricane run and then of course it drops it in the next run..LOL
That wave off Africa looks the best I've seen so far for any that have exited Africa this season.But it's eventually killed off by the models.Beautiful to look at though.
Here we go again. My area is starting to flood and more rain will only aggrevate the situation after yesterday's deluge.

Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave off Africa looks the best I've seen so far for any that have exited Africa this season.But it's eventually killed off by the models.Beautiful to look at though.


Looks almost like a TD. I'm surprised the NHC has drawn a colored circle over this area.

Typhoon Vicente lashes South China
Updated: 2012-07-24 11:07(chinadaily.com.cn)

A woman battles to hold her umbrella and bicycle against rain and gales in En'ping county, South China's Guangdong province, on July 24, 2012. Typhoon Vicente made landfall in Chixi county, Guangdong province, early Tuesday morning, bringing torrential rain and hurricane force winds to southern China. Hong Kong was lashed by gales on Monday as typhoon Vicente moved towards the financial hub, sending office workers home early and prompting the local observatory to raise the tropical cyclone warning signal to number 8, the third highest classification.

1316. ncstorm
Nogaps.00z run..had a TD by tomorrow


Nogaps 06z run..strong wave..backed off but has the same path as the GFS

Quoting KoritheMan:


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi


Funny thing, The harder I work the lucker i get!
Also looking for news about Macau / Macao...
I believe most people don't like the idea or the expense incurred when having to make changes to how they live. Take for instance. HCFC Refrigerant(Freon) 22 (which is what is in the AC that cools your home) is being phased out. The cost of this is crazy. 4 years ago you could, if you had the proper license, buy a 30# drum of R-22 for $40. Last year it was $200. Right now that same drum is in the $500 neighborhood. It is now cheaper to pay for new R-410a (HFC) equipment to replace what is in your home. Which this is what has to be done now if your unit totally fails. You can no longer purchase R-22 equipment. There are people that believe this is a racket just so someone can make more money. The actual cost of going green is high, and there are a great number of people that can't afford it. R-12 (CFC) (used in car AC's) was phased out in the 90's. There was cost in this as well but you could live without AC in your car if you couldn't afford the retrofit. It is not something people want to deal with in their home though.
Typhoon Vicente struck Macau at about 15:00 GMT on 23 July.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwasnear21.4 N,113.8 E.Vicente brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around129 km/h (80 mph).Wind gusts in the area mayhave beenconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofVicente'sstrength (category 1)at landfall includes:

•Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal.
•No real damage to building structures.
•Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees.
•Some damage to poorly constructed signs.
•Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.


The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks almost like a TD. I'm surprised the NHC has drawn a colored circle over this area.


They might put a 20% yellow on it at 2PM if it maintains itself.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks almost like a TD. I'm surprised the NHC has drawn a colored circle over this area.

Remember..the NHC likes to see if things are persistent.Remember 92L earlier this year?.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Margusity at Accuweather is already calling it a derecho on Twitter....


I was watching the line in Chicago this morning and wondered. It seems as if a fast-moving line hits Chicagoland, the Mid-Atlantic has to be on guard. Our version of an African wave, I guess :)
Quoting goosegirl1:


I was watching the line in Chicago this morning and wondered. It seems as if a fast-moving line hits Chicagoland, the Mid-Atlantic has to be on guard. Our version of an African wave, I guess :)
No..just..just no..I don't wanna hear that name!!!.
Looks like Macau got only cat 1 sustained winds. This leads me to believe the radius of cat 3-4 winds was smaller than I was thinking yesterday [not unlikely, given the relatively fast spinup]. The good side of this is that storm surge going into the lowlying delta areas on the western side of the Pearl River estuary should be much lower than 10 feet...
1328. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here we go again. My area is starting to flood and more rain will only aggrevate the situation after yesterday's deluge.

..sure looks like that line out in the gulf is going to move inland,here we go again
Im confused. i know its one run of the gfs and it shows a hurricane approaching the bahamas but i thought this was the year were the A/B high is strong and pushes everything into the carribean or florida..
Old stuff but slow blog so.

Haven't seen this video of the Tuscaloosa tornado before. Scary stuff from a good vanatage point:



1332. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
0Z GFS

..say stormtracker, does this look like a hit on central florida down the road?
Quoting floridaboy14:
Im confused. i know its one run of the gfs and it shows a hurricane approaching the bahamas but i thought this was the year were the A/B high is strong and pushes everything into the carribean or florida..
Follow that 1016 line. Whereever that is, there the storms will follow...

Quoting washingtonian115:
No..just..just no..I don't wanna hear that name!!!.


I am with you, but I suppose we are need a warning. There is a line of strong storms to my west and north, in SE PA, that looks as if they move thru here soon. If the derecho holds together, we will have that later this afternoon. I think the "ring of fire" moved a bit to the east... we are in for an exciting day.
Wow did you see this!!
1336. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:



About 15 to minutes SE of Orlando OIA has only had about 3" of rain for July but in Downtown Orlando the total is around 10" for the month. Crazy how the seabreezes work in FL as some areas get pounded repeatedly while others see very little rain.
..I dont even want to look at the rain toatls here lol..ducks are loving this
Quoting BahaHurican:
Follow that 1016 line. Whereever that is, there the storms will follow...

sorry i cant see the 1016 mb line on the 0z GFS could you please tell me where future Ernesto would go? thank you
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I believe most people don't like the idea or the expense incurred when having to make changes to how they live. Take for instance. HCFC Refrigerant(Freon) 22 (which is what is in the AC that cools your home) is being phased out. The cost of this is crazy. 4 years ago you could, if you had the proper license, buy a 30# drum of R-22 for $40. Last year it was $200. Right now that same drum is in the $500 neighborhood. It is now cheaper to pay for new R-410a (HFC) equipment to replace what is in your home. Which this is what has to be done now if your unit totally fails. You can no longer purchase R-22 equipment. There are people that believe this is a racket just so someone can make more money. The actual cost of going green is high, and there are a great number of people that can't afford it. R-12 (CFC) (used in car AC's) was phased out in the 90's. There was cost in this as well but you could live without AC in your car if you couldn't afford the retrofit. It is not something people want to deal with in their home though.
The cost of going green is sometimes high. Then again, the cost of doing the right thing by correcting past mistakes often is. Six months of cancer care is considerably more expensive than six decades of cigarette smoking, but when the only other option is just to throw your hands in the air and die, what real choice do you have?
Quoting floridaboy14:
sorry i cant see the 1016 mb line on the 0z GFS could you please tell me where future Ernesto would go? thank you

If this were to follow the 1016mb line it would probably go into the Carolinas:

1341. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow did you see this!!

It'll be dissipated before it gets to Hawaii if it heads in that direction... Actually it's starting to look like 90E won't develop at all.
1343. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow did you see this!!
I'm surprised this invest hasn't gotten named yet. It was looking pretty good on Sunday...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this were to follow the 1016mb line it would probably go into the Carolinas:

oh ok thank you. remember those thats a 16 day run and its just ONE run of the GFS. looking forward to the 12z GFS model run. thanks
Starting to see a good deal of hints from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles that the MDR might light up with some decent easterly waves over the next fews weeks.

ECMWF and GFS agree on a "sleeper wave" moving across the MDR and developing north of the islands.

Very decent looking wave just off the coast. Starting to think that this will become something of interest over the next few days.

Be careful what you wish for I guess...

And the Derecho begins...
1349. LargoFl
WUUS51 KCTP 241312
SVRCTP
PAC009-055-057-061-111-241415-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0134.120724T1312Z-120724T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
912 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 907 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
ARMAGH TO OHIOPYLE...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WINDBER AND SOMERSET...
MEYERSDALE AND CENTRAL CITY...
BLUE KNOB STATE PARK AND OGLETOWN...
QUEEN AND OSTERBURG...
LAKE GORDON AND CESSNA...
NEW ENTERPRISE AND BEDFORD...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 190...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
40...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ROUTE 522.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGE. MOVE INSIDE A PERMANENT BUILDING
NOW TO BE SAFE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow did you see this!!

Check 1266. I commented on it.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this were to follow the 1016mb line it would probably go into the Carolinas:



I know that I said you people would never hear from me again, but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO make it go somewhere else xD
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this were to follow the 1016mb line it would probably go into the Carolinas:


it could "pump the ridge"
1353. LargoFl
wash d.c etc...pay attention to your local warnings this afternoon..................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
251015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
849 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATERS.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA AS HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
1355. LargoFl
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I believe most people don't like the idea or the expense incurred when having to make changes to how they live. Take for instance. HCFC Refrigerant(Freon) 22 (which is what is in the AC that cools your home) is being phased out. The cost of this is crazy. 4 years ago you could, if you had the proper license, buy a 30# drum of R-22 for $40. Last year it was $200. Right now that same drum is in the $500 neighborhood. It is now cheaper to pay for new R-410a (HFC) equipment to replace what is in your home. Which this is what has to be done now if your unit totally fails. You can no longer purchase R-22 equipment. There are people that believe this is a racket just so someone can make more money. The actual cost of going green is high, and there are a great number of people that can't afford it. R-12 (CFC) (used in car AC's) was phased out in the 90's. There was cost in this as well but you could live without AC in your car if you couldn't afford the retrofit. It is not something people want to deal with in their home though.

It’s a scam that endangers all our lives.

Freon 22 = 120 psi working pressure
R-410a = 300-500 working pressure

Freon = 22 can be inhaled (kids do it to get high)
R-410a = Small amounts will suck all the moister out of you lungs, break down the surfactant in you lungs and kill you hammer dead.

R-410a = a sensor must be installed to detect even small leaks. This is not being done due to the high cost of replacement.

R-410a = still has some Freon 22 in it.




JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting WxGeekVA:

And the Derecho begins...
Don't show that picture!!.That's the devil's child!.And not surprisingly the sorry morning crew Tucker,Allison,and Tony are not taking this situation seriously.
1361. LargoFl
...this line sure looks like its headed eastward towards Florida once again, this afternoon or evening might turn out interesting
Here's the lightning in Felix I was referring to yesterday:

Quoting Neapolitan:
The cost of going green is sometimes high. Then again, the cost of doing the right thing by correcting past mistakes often is. Six months of cancer care is considerably more expensive than six decades of cigarette smoking, but when the only other option is just to throw your hands in the air and die, what real choice do you have?


What you say is true. However some large business will use that logic to GREATLY increase the cost beyond what it needs to be.
TWC used WU interactive radar in their G+ post.
seems they get along quite well
Quoting Autistic2:

It’s a scam that endangers all our lives.

Freon 22 = 120 psi working pressure
R-410a = 300-500 working pressure

Freon = 22 can be inhaled (kids do it to get high)
R-410a = Small amounts will suck all the moister out of you lungs, break down the surfactant in you lungs and kill you hammer dead.

R-410a = a sensor must be installed to detect even small leaks. This is not being done due to the high cost of replacement.

R-410a = still has some Freon 22 in it.




Freon 22 = destroys the zone
R-410a = doesn't destroy the ozone

FTW.

Much of what you wrote is, quite frankly, rubbish.
Quoting KoritheMan:


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi


What would you call it then?

Clearly people are affected by events that have nothing to do with skill, nor even the free will of other good or evil people.

Gambling:
Lottery.
Craps.

You can make a millionaire out of a fool in five minutes.

Even disasters are not always a matter of wisdom or planning. Mohenjo Daro was struck by a meteor and obliterated, with the ancient aliens crowd claiming evidence of a nuclear explosion, but then again a large enough meteor could in fact cause a nuclear explosion. If you were there when it happened, you probably had "bad luck" and even if you survived the initial impact you probably died from radiation or burns. If you were elsewhere you had "good luck".

It makes little difference whether this event was pre-ordained by causality from the moment of creation of the universe, because the place of one's birth was nevertheless "lucky" to produce survival through no merit, or "unlucky" to produce death through no necessary lack of merit.


To use another of Obi Wan's lines, "From a certain point of view...," luck does exist, even if everything is predetermined.
I was impressed that throughout the impacts of Vicente, Hong Kong seemed to retain mains power & internet connectivity and suffer little building damage- I was able to access a series of HK Web Cams (Transport Dept & HK Observatory) for the duration of Vicente.
They have proven a high level of resilience (perhaps what one should expect in one of the world's leading financial capitals)that many places could do well to try and emulate.
Main thing to me though is that all my contacts there are fine and well
So now - back to eyes on the Caribbean - although that area East of Phillipines could eventually bring something Hong Kong's way again.
RE: June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June


4th warmest since when ?

what about the 2000 years prior to that "when" ?

what about the 5000 years prior the new "when" ?

what about the 10,000 years prior to the next "when" ?

how many million years am I left with ?


when was the "coolest" June ?


who won the 1447 Super Bowl,World Series,and Indy 500 ?