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June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.

While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.


Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.

The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting presslord:


he certainly has a great face for radio




:)
1002. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yea, the eye is pretty ragged looking, and not very cleared out at the moment. But that doesn't mean it is weakening, the eye has only just formed so this is to be expected. Cloud tops have cooled, but I expect that is due to the transition out of dmax


It's obviously not weakening. My comments were on its current intensity,.
George Noory informs almost all of my scientific views...I just come here for the entertainment value...
Quoting ElConando:


According to NHC return period data the big bend area of Florida has the longest average return period for a Tropical system of any category.

You can find Cats 2-5 return period as well on their website.



That doesn't seem to make any since. There is no way Tampa Bay has a return period of 6 years? It has got to be more like 20. And My Grandma was probably born and died before one has hit Jacksonville?

I don't usually argue with the NHC but that figure just seems to not make since at all, maybe I'm not incorporating any data before the 1020's or something. Or I'm not reading that right.

But I'm pretty darn sure Tampa Bay doesn't get hit by a hurricane ever 6 years because I know people who grew up here in Pinellas County that are twice my age and they never went through a single direct hit. Heck Canada might have had more hurricane landfalls over the last 50 years than West Central Florida! lol
1005. Patrap
Dosent Whitely Strieber live in da Carolina's?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N25W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.

new tropical wave add at 8pm
Short SDO gif of the new sun spot today..
Quoting Levi32:


It's obviously not weakening. My comments were on its current intensity,.
yeah sorry if I made it sound like that's what you were saying.

Just sometimes I feel like people point out a ragged eye when they overlook the fact that an eye has only just formed. You can't expect an eye to just suddenly pop up perfectly
Quoting presslord:
George Noory informs almost all of my scientific views...I just come here for the entertainment value...


Hes had some interesting guests throughout the years. Such as one who believed that Crude Oil was actually a current renewable energy rather than one that takes millions of years to make.
1010. Patrap
Somehow I feel a Wilma reference is in order?
Quoting Patrap:


His Mustache is proof nuff for me for Alien Life..




The Alien was bout this wide.


LMAO!!
1012. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah sorry if I made it sound like that's what you were saying.

Just sometimes I feel like people point out a ragged eye when they overlook the fact that an eye has only just formed. You can't expect an eye to just suddenly pop up perfectly


I've actually seen it many times lol.
1014. MrsOsa
Patrap you have WUmail!

And on that note, where did the WUmail link go? It used to be in plain view at the top of the page but now I can't find it to access my inbox directly.
Quoting Levi32:


I've actually seen it many times lol.
well nvm then lol

I haven't been watching the tropics very long, that was just my assumption that they take a little to get together.
Quoting ElConando:


Hes had some interesting guests throughout the years. Such as one who believed that Crude Oil was actually a current renewable energy rather than one that takes millions of years to make.
I like that theory. That means we can pollute the heck out of things for many more years.
Quoting Levi32:


I've actually seen it many times lol.

Levi wont the TUTT prevent serious stregnthining for the tropical storm in the western pacific?
Quoting MrsOsa:
Patrap you have WUmail!

And on that note, where did the WUmail link go? It used to be in plain view at the top of the page but now I can't find it to access my inbox directly.


Assuming you're using the modernized version of the site, it should be in the extreme top right.
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.
1020. Levi32
Quoting neutralenso:

Levi wont the TUTT prevent serious stregnthining for the tropical storm in the western pacific?


What TUTT? lol.

1021. Levi32
Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.


Perhaps it means affected by, not a direct direct hit. That's very hard to get, but the Tampa Bay area gets affected by hurricanes on a fairly regular basis, similar to the return period you mentioned.
1022. Patrap
Quoting MrsOsa:
Patrap you have WUmail!

And on that note, where did the WUmail link go? It used to be in plain view at the top of the page but now I can't find it to access my inbox directly.


Bac atcha...
Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.


To be honest, I've always taken that graph (as well as the rest of them for the higher category of hurricanes) with an extreme grain of salt. I almost never seriously question the pros, and I also don't intend to paint myself as smarter than them, but in this case...
1024. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
well nvm then lol

I haven't been watching the tropics very long, that was just my assumption that they take a little to get together.


They usually do, and you're correct. However, as far as the eye goes, I have often seen the smaller storms that wind up quickly suddenly pop out a small, nearly clear eye within the course of a few hours. Those storms usually spend very little time as a Cat 1, and go nearly straight to Cat 2. The larger storms like Ma-on find it harder to form a perfect eye right away.
Quoting Levi32:


What TUTT? lol.


wow lol my bad and is the reason why its going to curve northwest is due to it nearing the edge of the ridge?
Quoting Levi32:


Perhaps it means affected by, not a direct direct hit. That's very hard to get, but the Tampa Bay area gets affected by hurricanes on a fairly regular basis, similar to the return period you mentioned.


Alright if that is the case than that would make since, because I have been affected by many hurricanes since I grew up here. Numerous sustained tropical storm force wind events and heavy rain events from tropical cyclones. Its just been very long since the eyewall of a hurricane has been through the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting Levi32:


What TUTT? lol.

I'd assume he's referring to the upper level low to the west.

I heard the JTWC mention this as a TUTT earlier today as well. The actual TUTT is back over the Central Pacific, I believe.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.
The last hurricane thru Tampa was before almost all of us were born except of course for Grothar.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2011 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 20:04:58 N Lon : 152:35:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 980.7mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -36.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.0 degrees

Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.


It must have got hit by 10 in a 10 year period somewhere along the way....;^)
1031. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'd assume he's referring to the upper level low to the west.

I heard the JTWC mention this as a TUTT earlier today as well. The actual TUTT is back over the Central Pacific, I believe.



Yup. I don't see how it would be in the storm's way. The upper low to its northwest is actually helping it a great deal right now. It would not be as organized as it is without that outflow channel in the NW quad.
1032. Levi32
Quoting neutralenso:

wow lol my bad and is the reason why its going to curve northwest is due to it nearing the edge of the ridge?


Yup.
Just a curosity. The US has been spared a major hurricane landfall for 6 years now. Do you guys see our luck running out this year? last year the East coast trough recurved all the hurricanes and the Gulf ridge kept them far south into mexico.
Quoting KoritheMan:


To be honest, I've always taken that graph (as well as the rest of them for the higher category of hurricanes) with an extreme grain of salt. I almost never seriously question the pros, and I also don't intend to paint myself as smarter than them, but in this case...


Yeah me either, which is why I am hoping I'm not understanding well what that graph means. Because as much as people think of hurricane threat if they think of Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay gets about as many land falling hurricanes as it does snow events. Heck we might actually have more snow events over the last 70 or 80 years than hurricane landfalls! lol

In fact I have seen snow and sleet here before I have seen a hurricane direct hit!

Hopefully what Levi said is the case, cause if not they should do a little tweaking on that graph...



How is that for a funny way to think, the possibility of seeing a winter wonder land in this tropical jungle here is higher than a direct hit from a hurricane hahaha
1921
The last major hurricane to hit Tampa and the Florida central west coast caused over a million dollars in damage. The storm passed across the state and exited at Jacksonville.

Is this right?

If so Tampa must have been hit every year from 1900-1912
Quoting Levi32:


Yup. I don't see how it would be in the storm's way. The upper low to its northwest is actually helping it a great deal right now. It would not be as organized as it is without that outflow channel in the NW quad.
Yeah, although it is limiting outflow in the SW quadrant somewhat. This can be seen in the upper level winds showing some vectors indicating air heading towards the system



Shows up on the upper level convergence/divergence map as well



Overall though, this upper level low is probably hurting the storm about as much as it's helping it.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.


It includes storms that made landfall on the east coast of Florida and crossed over. As long as it was a hurricane when it exited, it would count.
Quoting neutralenso:
Just a curosity. The US has been spared a major hurricane landfall for 6 years now. Do you guys see our luck running out this year? last year the East coast trough recurved all the hurricanes and the Gulf ridge kept them far south into mexico.
right now the East coast trough is here again!!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It must have got hit by 10 in a 10 year period somewhere along the way....;^)


Yeah I guess so! lol
1041. aquak9
Jed, I gotta agree with ya on the recurrance map.(re:Jacksonville) Last we had was Dora in 1964, and really she came in just north of St. Augustine. We were affected by David in '79, but only the coastal areas. Really we've had worse nor'easters than hurricanes... altho Frances and Jeanne are recent, they did not bring hurricane force winds to the Jacksonville area, and they were not "direct hits", so to speak.
San Diego weather stuck on repeat lol

Quoting neutralenso:
Just a curosity. The US has been spared a major hurricane landfall for 6 years now. Do you guys see our luck running out this year? last year the East coast trough recurved all the hurricanes and the Gulf ridge kept them far south into mexico.


Last year followed a typical La Nina pattern, although the western extent of the Bermuda High was a bit weaker than normal, hence why most storms forming in the C and EATL recurved. In a typical La Nina year, the east coast is highly vulnerable, and that was proven with Earl.

As for the Gulf ridge, that is always expected in such years, and it will likely continue lingering in our basin for another month or so before the atmosphere catches up with La Nina's recent demise.

In short, no one can tell you if we're gonna see a major hurricane this year. We will eventually, though. But as they say, records exist to be broken. There is no objective reason why we could not theoretically go through another year without a major strike.
Quoting aquak9:
Jed, I gotta agree with ya on the recurrance map.(re:Jacksonville) Last we had was Dora in 1964, and really she came in just north of St. Augustine. We were affected by David in '79, but only the coastal areas. Really we've had worse nor'easters than hurricanes... altho Frances and Jeanne are recent, they did not bring hurricane force winds to the Jacksonville area, and they were not "direct hits", so to speak.


Yeah see what I mean? I bet you can think of more snow events there than hurricanes lol

Same goes for here in the Tampa Bay area, Ive lived here 16 years of my life before that I grew up the first 4 in Arizona, but mostly Ive been a Floridian. I have yet to see a hurricane landfall close to us. However I have seen sleet and snow flurries!

The worst severe weather events Ive had have all come from thunderstorms. In fact even a tornado came within 1000 yds of my house earlier this spring, and Ive had numerous 60 to 70 mph microburst damage events here and even a a few hurricane force gust thunderstorm events. And of course lots of numerous rainfall flooding events and countless events of power loss from lighting and several trees hit and a business close to me.
nice wave coming off africa. lets see if this one can hold it together for a couple days. anybody got any thoughts on when this hurricane season might kick off, and why we haven't seen any real storms when it seems the water is plenty hot enough? and also what are the conditions that are perfect for storm development? thanks in advance!

Quoting Jedkins01:


How is that for a funny way to think, the possibility of seeing a winter wonder land in this tropical jungle here is higher than a direct hit from a hurricane hahaha
Yeah, that's a bit surprising. Snow is even rarer in Florida than it is here in Louisiana.
1047. beell
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//

...THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM. THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72...

Quoting sarahjola:
 and why we haven't seen any real storms when it seems the water is plenty hot enough?
Because water temperatures alone aren't nearly enough.
1050. help4u
Will be a very low amount of cape verde storms,dry air ,drought and dust covers most of ocean off africa.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Because water temperatures alone aren't nearly enough.


Yep, hurricane science is just a tad bit more complicated than that, just a tad... :)
CIMSS put out a new ADT users book...page 26 or 27..there's some fun math in there..


The three eye region scene types and five cloud region scene types are described
below:

Eye Region Scene Type Description
EYE Any eye type (clear, ragged, and obscured)
PINHOLE Very small eye/pronounced warm spot
LARGE Clear, well-defined eye with radius >= 38 km

Cloud Region Scene Type Description
UNIFORM CDO Overcast cloud region with uniform temperature structure
EMBEDDED CENTER Arc of convection within central overcast cloud region
IRREGULAR CDO Cloud region over storm center, but large shift in coverage
CURVED BAND Curved cloud region surrounding circulation center
SHEAR Displaced convection and exposed circulation center
1053. bappit
Here's a Wiki link for Presslord.

The Carolinas
1054. bappit
Quoting Levi32:


Perhaps it means affected by, not a direct direct hit. That's very hard to get, but the Tampa Bay area gets affected by hurricanes on a fairly regular basis, similar to the return period you mentioned.

Source?
Quoting beell:
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//

...THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM. THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72...
Yep, there's the JTWC mention of the TUTT. I can see what they're getting at





it's not a semi-permanent trough though, and it is very poorly defined. A true TUTT is what's over the central pacific
1056. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
CIMSS put out a new ADT users book...page 26 or 27..there's some fun math in there..


The three eye region scene types and five cloud region scene types are described
below:

Eye Region Scene Type Description
EYE Any eye type (clear, ragged, and obscured)
PINHOLE Very small eye/pronounced warm spot
LARGE Clear, well-defined eye with radius >= 38 km

Cloud Region Scene Type Description
UNIFORM CDO Overcast cloud region with uniform temperature structure
EMBEDDED CENTER Arc of convection within central overcast cloud region
IRREGULAR CDO Cloud region over storm center, but large shift in coverage
CURVED BAND Curved cloud region surrounding circulation center
SHEAR Displaced convection and exposed circulation center


Wow, very nice. I might try to use their program on my system.
1057. Patrap
Elena in 85 taunted Tampa,,but High pressure turned it Back towards the Miss Coast Labor Day weekend.



A frontal trough of low pressure turned Elena to the northeast, but when the trough outran the storm, steering currents collapsed, leaving behind a stalled, strengthening hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It posed a threat to the west coast of Florida,[1] but after the crowds returned to the Mississippi and Florida panhandle coasts, it slowly looped back to the northwest and was changed to a north Gulf Coast threat, prompting another evacuation of the Mississippi Coast. Elena reached its peak of 125 mph (205 km/h) on September 1, 75 miles (121 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida while moving back to the west-northwest due to steering by a building high pressure area to its northeast.[2
1058. aquak9
Yeah see what I mean? I bet you can think of more snow events there than hurricanes lol

wow...yeah you're right.
I don't normally watch TWC, but according to Dr. Forbes they're having a special to commemorate Jim Cantore's 25 years with The Weather Channel. I believe it will air at 10:00 PM EDT.
Quoting bappit:

Source?
Tampa gets mentioned by Dr. J so he can talk about storm surge not because anything has happened here.
1061. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yep, there's the JTWC mention of the TUTT. I can see what they're getting at





it's not a semi-permanent trough though, and it is very poorly defined. A true TUTT is what's over the central pacific


But the phrasing "along the 21st latitude" implies a zonally-oriented TUTT, not a meridionally-oriented one, which is the only type of upper trough I can find near the system.

I could see how there could be a very thin sliver trough between the upper anticyclone associated with Ma-on and the large upper high to the north. Often a rope-thin upper trough will hang out between those kinds of features for a long time before being dissipated.
1062. trey33
Quoting Jedkins01:


That doesn't seem to make any since. There is no way Tampa Bay has a return period of 6 years? It has got to be more like 20. And My Grandma was probably born and died before one has hit Jacksonville?

I don't usually argue with the NHC but that figure just seems to not make since at all, maybe I'm not incorporating any data before the 1020's or something. Or I'm not reading that right.

But I'm pretty darn sure Tampa Bay doesn't get hit by a hurricane ever 6 years because I know people who grew up here in Pinellas County that are twice my age and they never went through a single direct hit. Heck Canada might have had more hurricane landfalls over the last 50 years than West Central Florida! lol


you are right about that
1063. Patrap
The name Elena was retired in the spring of 1986 and will never be again used for an Atlantic hurricane. Up until then, Elena was the only Atlantic storm name that has been retired without causing any direct casualties, although Hurricane Paloma of 2008 would follow.

Quoting Patrap:
The name Elena was retired in the spring of 1986 and will never be again used for an Atlantic hurricane. Up until then, Elena was the only Atlantic storm name that has been retired without causing any direct casualties, although Hurricane Paloma of 2008 would follow.
My step mom shares her replacement name... ;)
Quoting trey33:


you are right about that
1921 he repeats who is probably on ignore.
Quoting Levi32:


But the phrasing "along the 21st latitude" implies a zonally-oriented TUTT, not a meridionally-oriented one, which is the only type of upper trough I can find near the system.
yea that's the weird part. The reason I believe they are referring to the upper level system to the west is because they say

ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE.


If they're referring to the SW quadrant then it couldn't be the TUTT in the central pacific
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
9:00 AM JST July 13 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ma-On (985 hPa) located at 19.3N 152.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.4N 148.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 21.7N 144.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.8N 139.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

Additional Information
======================

Severe tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Severe tropical storm will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Severe tropical storm will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Severe tropical storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T4.5 after 24 hours
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yep, hurricane science is just a tad bit more complicated than that, just a tad... :)
i get that, which is why i asked the question " what are the perfect conditions for a storm to develop?"
Quoting sarahjola:
nice wave coming off africa. lets see if this one can hold it together for a couple days. anybody got any thoughts on when this hurricane season might kick off, and why we haven't seen any real storms when it seems the water is plenty hot enough? and also what are the conditions that are perfect for storm development? thanks in advance!


I believe the biggest reasons there hasn't been much yet is:

1. Wind shear in the Caribbean

2. An unusually strong monsoon trough has been focusing energy directly over Central America, and tropical systems cannot start over land.

In less active years there is often no named storms in July, mainly because of shear, IIRC, and also because the hot SSTs have not penetrated deep into the water yet. In late July the Azores-Bermuda High gets far north enough to allow Cape Verde storms to start forming.
1071. Patrap
The probability of a storm developing in the sw carribean is low because it will have strong competition in the east pac
look at this wind shear map!!
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


I believe the biggest reasons there hasn't been much yet is:

1. Wind shear in the Caribbean

2. An unusually strong monsoon trough has been focusing energy directly over Central America, and tropical systems cannot start over land.

In less active years there is often no named storms in July, mainly because of shear, IIRC, and also because the hot SSTs have not penetrated deep into the water yet. In late July the Azores-Bermuda High gets far north enough to allow Cape Verde storms to start forming.

thanks for the explaining it to me! i have heard some people say that the bermuda high would be placed in such a way that forces storms to curve back out to sea. is that true??? thanks in advance
From NOAAs Mariners Guide to Hurricanes....Circa 2000 but a good synopsis of the basic factor for cyclogenisis:

Conditions for Development & Intensification
The process by which a tropical cyclone develops and subsequently intensifies into a hurricane
depends on at least six conditions explained below:

1. A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms. As warm core systems, tropical cyclones
rely on a build up of heat energy within the atmospheric column above them in order to
grow and develop. A thunderstorm complex acts as a vertical transport mechanism for heat,
moisture, and the cyclonic turning of winds into the upper levels of the atmosphere. This
vertical transport into higher levels of the atmosphere aids the incipient tropical cyclone to
grow and develop.

2. Relatively moist atmospheric layers in the middle troposphere, approximately 10,000-20,000 ft
above the earth’s surface. Dry air at this level of the atmosphere is not favorable for continued
development of the required thunderstorm activity in a disturbance.

3. Warm (at least 79ºF or 26ºC) ocean temperatures with a mixed layer depth of about 200 feet.
This mixed ocean layer allows warm water to remain available to a developing system even
after the wind has begun to increase in speed and the sea surface begins to get churned up by
the developing cyclone.

4. Light winds aloft that do not change much in direction and speed throughout the depth of the
atmosphere (low vertical wind shear). Tropical cyclones rely on a vertically stacked structure in
order to grow or maintain in intensity. In other words, the ideal tropical cyclone will have its
cyclonic circulation in the middle & upper levels of the atmosphere located directly above the
cyclonic circulation of the surface & low levels of the atmosphere. Increases in wind speed
with height will tilt the vertical structure of a tropical cyclone not allowing the system to remain
stacked throughout the troposphere. If this vertical tilting of the system persists, growth
will become inhibited and the tropical system will decay.

5. Must be poleward of about 5 degrees north latitude in order to meet minimum threshold values
for the Coriolis Force. See footnote on previous page.

6. Upper-level outflow over a system serves to remove mass from the top of the vertical column
in a tropical cyclone. As a system develops, low-level cyclonic flow pulls more mass towards
the center of the system; the flow then turns upward in intense vertical motions associated with
thunderstorms in the area. Without a method to dispose of this mass from above the tropical
cyclone, low-level converging flow toward the center of the system will be halted and the
system will “suffocate”.

In a complex relationship, these six factors are interdependent. The absence or change in one of the ingredients often results in a change or loss in one or more of the other factors. If nature allows
these conditions to remain favorable over a period of time, it can produce a spectacular atmospheric
event of catastrophic proportions.


This is the most important part....They all have to gel just right.
1076. beell
200mb Valid 18Z 07/12. Subsidence along the western edge of the TUTT. Presumably evident by the dry air to the north of the system and suppression of outflow and a sharp break in convection on that side.

click to open in new window


Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.


Does it count if a hurricane comes within 65 miles of Tampa Bay? I could see that.
1078. Levi32
Quoting beell:
200mb Valid 18Z 07/11. Subsidence along the western edge of the TUTT. Presumably evident by the dry air to the north of the system.

click to open in new window


This image makes the subsidence look more directly associated with the strong ridge to the north, to me.

Microwave imagery from three and a half hours ago

Quoting KoritheMan:

My step mom shares her replacement name... ;)


Erika???
704. NavarreMark 7:50 PM GMT on July 12, 2011 Hide this comment.
The main is getting more nerdy every day. I think the only way its gonna change is for a whole bunch of normal/reasonable people (if there is such a thing) to go in and start posting. Just overwelm them.

Of course I am referring to civil posting, but alot less nerdy.

What a bunch of geeks.
Action: Quote | Ignore User

A lot of comments in GrillingInTheEyes's blog about weather weenies and driving out weather posters from Dr. Master's blog. I think they are why some people like TomTaylor are minused, when he posts good stuff.

Minus up the posters with hundreds of comments and grey them out. Then go after the serious tropical weather posters with thousands of comments. Because everyone knows that posters like SergeantRock and PurpleStank are more valuable members than TomTaylor and Tropicalwxanalyst13. Not.
1082. beell
OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL

The ULL to the NW. I assume this cut off from the TUTT in the recent past-a common occurence. Although I certainly was not watching this area of the world before today.
: -)
1084. beell
Quoting Levi32:


This image makes the subsidence look more directly associated with the strong ridge to the north, to me.



Probably a factor for sure. In conjunction with the TUTT a very confluent/subsident upper level flow. Which will fit quite nicely with one of your earlier posts on this storm.

Quoting hurricaneben:


Erika???
Yeah, except hers is spelled with a "c", but it's close enough. ;)
Those tropical cyclone return period maps are based on how many times a TC passed with 75 nm (86 miles) of that location within the previous 100 years. Thus, a 2011 return period of 6 years for Tampa means that a hurricane or tropical storm got within 86 miles of that city 16 or 17 times since 1911. Now, this image from NOAA shows every hurricane to pass within 75 nm of Tampa (light circle) from 1911 through 2010, so that number looks about right.

TC
1087. Levi32
Quoting beell:
OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL

The ULL to the NW. I assume this cut off from the TUTT in the recent past-a common occurence. Although I certainly was not watching this area of the world before today.
: -)


Same here lol. I'm unsure of the history of the upper trough, but that's probably where it came from if they refer to it as a TUTT.
1088. beell
Have to mention, my interest in Ma-On comes from catching a bit of a docu-drama on one of the science channels last week. A disaster scenario where a westward moving super typhoon made an unexpected turn to the north due to a trough passing to the north and slammed into Tokyo.

This hypothetical trough would not have been unexpected by the WU-crew, I thought. Some similarities in the track forecast anyway.
1089. beell
Another "TUTT" low approaching Taiwan. Follow the leader!

West Pacific WV Loop
1091. Dakster
Quoting beell:
Another "TUTT" low approaching Taiwan. Follow the leader!

West Pacific WV Loop


Looks more like a "TWAT" or Tropical Wide Area Troff...

Hey man..., Japan again...



.
Quoting beell:
Have to mention, my interest in Ma-On comes from catching a bit of a docu-drama on one of the science channels last week. A disaster scenario where a westward moving super typhoon made an unexpected turn to the north due to a trough passing to the north and slammed into Tokyo.

This hypothetical trough would not have been unexpected by the WU-crew, I thought. Some similarities in the track forecast anyway.
I got a friend visiting Japan, not sure exactly where but somewhere around Kyoto. That's why I'm particularly interested.

I'll admit it's kinda sad that I wouldn't be quite as interested otherwise, but that's just the way things work.

Quoting TomTaylor:
I'll admit it's kinda sad that I wouldn't be quite as interested otherwise, but that's just the way things work.
My main reason for not being as interested in West Pacific storms is simply because I lack the requisite tools to track them.
1096. Buhdog
Quoting Neapolitan:
Those tropical cyclone return period maps are based on how many times a TC passed with 75 nm (86 miles) of that location within the previous 100 years. Thus, a 2011 return period of 6 years for Tampa means that a hurricane or tropical storm got within 86 miles of that city 16 or 17 times since 1911. Now, this image from NOAA shows every hurricane to pass within 75 nm of Tampa (light circle) from 1911 through 2010, so that number looks about right.

TC



+10
Far southern japan has a strong possiblity of getting hacked with a super typhoon, when was the last time that happened?
Quoting KoritheMan:

My main reason for not being as interested in West Pacific storms is simply because I lack the requisite tools to track them.
Do you mean like models and satellites and the likes?

Here are the links I've been using today

Japan Meterological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
PSU E-Wall for Tropical West Pacific
GFS for W Pacific
MTSAT Imagery at the Satellite Service Division
CIMSS for West Pacific
Quoting help4u:
Will be a very low amount of cape verde storms,dry air ,drought and dust covers most of ocean off africa.


There is nothing that states that the current conditions off the Africa coast will stay the same for the remainder of the season?

On another note: How is everyone? I will be updating my website for like the first time since last September. I would of done this earlier but I have been very busy and I figured now would be a good time considering the activity should start to pick up really soon. I would watch between Africa and the eastern Caribbean for development within the next week or so...I think were in for a relatively active cape-verde season.
1100. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:

My main reason for not being as interested in West Pacific storms is simply because I lack the requisite tools to track them.


How so? Most of the major tools we use in the Atlantic are available there as well, except that there are not as many recon missions.
Quoting KoritheMan:

My main reason for not being as interested in West Pacific storms is simply because I lack the requisite tools to track them.

Even Here in WU,

Link

Click on animate and copy to blog...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Do you mean like models and satellites and the likes?

Here are the links I've been using today

Japan Meterological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
PSU E-Wall for Tropical West Pacific
GFS for W Pacific
MTSAT Imagery at the Satellite Service Division
CIMSS for West Pacific

Gfs want to make the syteme ride the coast of Japan as a very strong typhoon not good!!!!!!Poor japan, can they get a break?

Quoting Levi32:


How so? Most of the major tools we use in the Atlantic are available there as well, except that there are not as many recon missions.
Well, if I want to, I can find vertical shear forecasts for the Atlantic, for one thing. I also have no trouble at all in finding other models for the Atlantic, whereas all I really have for the WPAC is the GFS.
Thanks Tom and sunline.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Gfs want to make the syteme ride the coast of Japan as a very strong typhoon not good!!!!!!Poor japan, can they get a break?
GFS run looks better than the ECMWF run though. GFS kinda clips the coastline. ECMWF actually brings it ashore, and it develops it stronger than the GFS does.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, if I want to, I can find vertical shear forecasts for the Atlantic, for one thing. I also have no trouble at all in finding other models for the Atlantic, whereas all I really have for the WPAC is the GFS.
PSU E-Wall W Pac has the CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS

On the ECMWF website, you can get the model forecasts for Asia/WPAC. ECMWF ensemble mean model forecasts for Asia/WPAC, ECMWF deterministic model forecasts for Asia/WPAC

Quoting KoritheMan:
Thanks Tom and sunline.

no problem
Quoting KoritheMan:
Thanks Tom and sunline.

Specially for Tom's link Database...

Quoting TomTaylor:
PSU E-Wall W Pac has the CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS

On the ECMWF website, you can get the model forecasts for Asia/WPAC. ECMWF ensemble mean model forecasts for Asia/WPAC, ECMWF deterministic model forecasts for Asia/WPAC


no problem
I don't recall PSU having Western Pacific data before. Is this new?

Quoting NavarreMark:


I wish him well, just hope he doesn't come around my area any time soon.
Word.
Quoting TomTaylor:
GFS run looks better than the ECMWF run though. GFS kinda clips the coastline. ECMWF actually brings it ashore, and it develops it stronger than the GFS does.

I would not say that GFS is better, it shows it making a short landfall in the same place then going back offshore and riding just off shore.
1114. bappit
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Looking peaked.
1115. ncstorm
#1109..

I hope you go to jail..you should never posts anyone's name or address without their permission..I have reported your post! Why its still up makes me question if people are even minusing the post. WU and whoever those bloggers need to prosecute you and anyone else affilated with your master plan..this is the second time I have seen this mess on this blog where people's personal information was put out there..
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Gfs want to make the syteme ride the coast of Japan as a very strong typhoon not good!!!!!!Poor japan, can they get a break?

I don't think it takes into account that the SST's are below 25C on the north side of Japan. That should make even the strongest storm weaken quickly.

Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't recall PSU having Western Pacific data before. Is this new?
not really sure

Quoting ncstorm:
#1109..

I hope you go to jail..you should never posts anyone's name or address without their permission..I have reported your post! Why its still up makes me question if people are even minusing the post. WU and whoever those bloggers need to prosecute you and anyone else affilated with your master plan..this is the second time I have seen this mess on this blog where people's personal information was put out there..


Uh someone post sombodys adress? wow, you did a good job taking that off!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

I would not say that GFS is better, it shows it making a short landfall in the same place then going back offshore and riding just off shore.
it doesn't make landfall on the GFS run. Obviously a typhoon crusing along the coast like that is never good, but the ECMWF actually brings it ashore and has it cross over the nation S -> N wise. This is definitely a worse situation
From Charleston NWS discussion:



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE /POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM/ OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OBVIOUSLY REMAINS WITH THE
STRENGTH...INTENSITY...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY SYSTEM THAT MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON.
JTWC forecast is now calling for 110 knot winds by Monday. This is a good 20 knots stronger than the last forecast. I would not be surprised if this became a super typhoon. However, it shouldn't reach that peak intensity until around the Monday/Tuesday. Until that time I would expect gradual intensification over the next few days, perhaps picking up by the end of the week as upper level outflow will improve since the upper level trough to the west will weaken and it will be on the divergent side (SW) of the deep layer ridge presently to its NE.

Quoting ncstorm:
#1109..

...this is the second time I have seen this mess on this blog where people's personal information was put out there..


That's why I never post anything personal that later can make me a "slave", if it is used by anyone incorrectly....
I don't know how many internet users, trust and post everything, photos, name, tel. number in Facebook and Twitter...
Quoting SavannahStorm:
From Charleston NWS discussion:



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE /POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM/ OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OBVIOUSLY REMAINS WITH THE
STRENGTH...INTENSITY...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY SYSTEM THAT MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON.


Well I have been talking about that for the past 48 hours now. I feel certain that this will be our next area of concern.
1125. srada
1127. srada
I hope the entire SE Coast gets rain from the potential low, I'm actually suprised that with all the heat that we had today that a wildfire didn't start. Unfortunately, we have round two tomorrow with the heat.
1129. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, if I want to, I can find vertical shear forecasts for the Atlantic, for one thing. I also have no trouble at all in finding other models for the Atlantic, whereas all I really have for the WPAC is the GFS.


Just gotta know where to look :P

Try this.

As for wind shear...I don't care about the model forecasts for that really. Forecasters can do just about as good of a job by using water vapor imagery, and if you have access to a 200mb level model forecast then that's easy to extrapolate shear with as well.
I just got on. What is going on with the address leak thing?

Quoting Levi32:


Just gotta know where to look :P

Try this.

As for wind shear...I don't care about the model forecasts for that really. Forecasters can do just about as good of a job by using water vapor imagery, and if you have access to a 200mb level model forecast then that's easy to extrapolate shear with as well.
Thank god you didn't suggest Accuweather Pro. That stuff is expensive I hear, even though it offers many benefits.

Yes, one can extrapolate shear from water vapor imagery and whatnot. I've done so before. I just like to have a little complimentary material to go along with it. But perhaps I've been spoiled by computers? ;)

Quoting wolftribe2009:
I just got on. What is going on with the address leak thing?
No idea. I have whoever said it on ignore. Either that, or the entire post was deleted.
1133. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:

Thank god you didn't suggest Accuweather Pro. That stuff is expensive I hear, even though it offers many benefits.

Yes, one can extrapolate shear from water vapor imagery and whatnot. I've done so before. I just like to have a little complimentary material to go along with it. But perhaps I've been spoiled by computers? ;)


I don't pay for AccuPro anymore because the models aren't worth it (to me). They have some nice stuff, but I do fine without.

Quoting Levi32:


I don't pay for AccuPro anymore because the models aren't worth it. They have some nice stuff, but I do fine without.
How much did it cost when you were paying for it? I've considered it when/if I get a job.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I just got on. What is going on with the address leak thing?


SSI has nothing better to do tonight.
NavarreMark "I wish him well, just hope he doesn't come around my area any time soon."

Having him in your home is a near guarantee that you won't experience much more than tropical storm conditions.
Whatcha don't want is for him to be about an hour's drive from your place, cuz that means there's a 50/50 chance that you're gonna experience the worst of the hurricane.
He may be a chaser, but he ain't dumb.
Space Shuttle Atlantis over Long Island, Bahamas:




http://cio.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/mu ltimedia/gallery/iss028e015807.html

Atlantis Approaches Station for Docking
ISS028-E-015807 (10 July 2011) --- The space shuttle Atlantis is seen over the Bahamas prior to a perfect docking with the International Space Station at 10:07 a.m. (CDT). Part of a Russian Progress spacecraft which is docked to the station is in the foreground.
1140. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:

How much did it cost when you were paying for it? I've considered it when/if I get a job.


$25/month, or $250/year.
Quoting ncstorm:
#1109..

I hope you go to jail..you should never posts anyone's name or address without their permission..I have reported your post! Why its still up makes me question if people are even minusing the post. WU and whoever those bloggers need to prosecute you and anyone else affilated with your master plan..this is the second time I have seen this mess on this blog where people's personal information was put out there..
replaced with empty space
Quoting NavarreMark:


I think ya called it DAM. Auburn knows.


WUmail, Mark.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Space Shuttle Atlantis over Long Island, Bahamas:




http://cio.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/mu ltimedia/gallery/iss028e015807.html

Atlantis Approaches Station for Docking
ISS028-E-015807 (10 July 2011) --- The space shuttle Atlantis is seen over the Bahamas prior to a perfect docking with the International Space Station at 10:07 a.m. (CDT). Part of a Russian Progress spacecraft which is docked to the station is in the foreground.

You can track Atlantis and the ISS here
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
replaced with empty space


Thanks, Keep!
1145. beell
Some of ya'll ought to start a gossip blog, lol.

Quoting sarahjola:

thanks for the explaining it to me! i have heard some people say that the bermuda high would be placed in such a way that forces storms to curve back out to sea. is that true??? thanks in advance


Last year yes, this year, probably not.
l
Quoting Levi32:


I don't pay for AccuPro anymore because the models aren't worth it (to me). They have some nice stuff, but I do fine without.
was it ever worth it?

250 a year is expensive for stuff you can find free (for the lost part)
Quoting Levi32:


I don't pay for AccuPro anymore because the models aren't worth it (to me). They have some nice stuff, but I do fine without.


They have since add two new computer modes 1.ECMWF EPS 2.ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System, It comes quite handy :)

I do miss Joe Bastardi tho :( he was a bit crazy but he knew long range forecasting like no other.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Those tropical cyclone return period maps are based on how many times a TC passed with 75 nm (86 miles) of that location within the previous 100 years. Thus, a 2011 return period of 6 years for Tampa means that a hurricane or tropical storm got within 86 miles of that city 16 or 17 times since 1911. Now, this image from NOAA shows every hurricane to pass within 75 nm of Tampa (light circle) from 1911 through 2010, so that number looks about right.

TC


hey thanks for clearing that up, it makes sense now
Quoting Levi32:


$25/month, or $250/year.

Premium is
Monthly - $7.95
Yearly - $79.95

Professional Account (Personal Use)

Monthly - $24.95

Yearly - $249.95

Professional Account - Commercial Use

Monthly - $69.95

Yearly - $699.95
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
12:00 PM JST July 13 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ma-On (985 hPa) located at 19.3N 152.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.5N 148.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 21.7N 144.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 22.8N 139.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Quoting Dakster:


Looks more like a "TWAT" or Tropical Wide Area Troff...

Getting kind of explicit aren't we? Just kidding!
1153. Levi32
Quoting Cantu5977:


They have since add two new computer modes 1.ECMWF EPS 2.ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System, It comes quite handy :)

I do miss Joe Bastardi tho :( he was a bit crazy but he knew long range forecasting like no other.


I know of them. Still not sure how useful they really are. What I really want is the ECMWF weekly ensemble means, but they don't have those up yet.

Yes, JB leaving is why I stopped paying. He's a real character, but the most brilliant and daring forecaster I know.
1154. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
lwas it ever worth it?

250 a year is expensive for stuff you can find free (for the lost part)


Actually 80% of the parameters and regions offered by their model system can't be found anywhere else by the public. I just find that I can do alright with what I have, and if I can't find a small subregion for Madagascar with 700mb vertical velocity mapped out for me, then tough. I'll live with it lol.
FYI, Asteroid 2003 YS117 (size 1.0km) will come within 73.9 LD of Earth. LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.
This List is other Asteroids for the rest of this year.

2007 DD Jul 23 9.3 LD 31 m
2003 BK47 Jul 26 77.6 LD 1.1 km
2009 AV Aug 22 49.7 LD 1.1 km
2003 QC10 Sep 18 50 LD 1.2 km
2004 SV55 Sep 19 67.5 LD 1.2 km
2007 TD Sep 23 3.8 LD 58 m
2002 AG29 Oct 9 77.1 LD 1.0 km
2000 OJ8 Oct 13 49.8 LD 2.5 km
2009 TM8 Oct 17 1.1 LD 8 m
2011 FZ2 Nov 7 75.9 LD 1.6 km

Quoting Levi32:


He's a real character, but one of the most brilliant and daring forecasters I know.
that's for sure. Especially the daring part lol

Quoting Levi32:


Actually 80% of the parameters and regions offered by their model system can't be found anywhere else by the public. I just find that I can do alright with what I have, and if I can't find a small subregion for New Zealand with 700mb vertical velocity mapped out for me, then tough. I'll live with it lol.
do you know how accurate those maps are?

I've always wondered how fancy programs can come up with these type of products...do they do that themselves (the modeling)? Or are they actually getting the data from somewhere else?
Quoting Levi32:


I know of them. Still not sure how useful they really are. What I really want is the ECMWF weekly ensemble means, but they don't have those up yet.

Yes, JB leaving is why I stopped paying. He's a real character, but one of the most brilliant and daring forecasters I know.


Their is talk that they are going to include it in the near future but who knows...If they would add it I would be set for life haha.

I subscribed last July and Im not ashamed to admit that I learned A LOT from him. Its amazing how much you can take to a certain extent from just looking at the forecast500mb pattern anomalies...haha thanks JB.
1158. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
that's for sure. Especially the daring part lol

do you know how accurate those maps are?

I've always wondered how fancy programs can come up with these type of products...do they do that themselves (the modeling)? Or are they actually getting the data from somewhere else?


Well think about it....we input as much data as we can into computer models that are built with physical equations which attempt to simulate reality. You can derive all kinds of field parameters from those equations, as the model has to make the atmosphere run in the simulation, and thus are an amazing multitude of possible parameters we could derive from that modeled atmosphere. They are every bit as "accurate" as the common parameters we use every day in the sense that those common parameters usually depend a great deal upon the other paremeters that we don't use very often. A lot of them are just simple calculations (like dewpoint).
1159. Levi32
Quoting Cantu5977:


Their is talk that they are going to include it in the near future but who knows...If they would add it I would be set for life haha.

I subscribed last July and Im not ashamed to admit that I learned A LOT from him. Its amazing how much you can take to a certain extent from just looking at the forecast500mb pattern anomalies...haha thanks JB.


He's amazing at it. I learned a great deal of what I know about long-range forecasting from him. Been a follower since I was 9.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Can anyone explain to me how the Tampa Bay area has a hurricane return period of 6 years? It just doesn't make any sense to me. The last hurricane landfall in the Tampa Bay area was before I was alive on this planet lol.
Did anybody mention the average thing? I'm not sure how they calculated here, but interestingly enough if you get hit three times in 18 years, it doesn't matter to the law of averages whether you went 15 years with nary a sight of a 'cane, then got hit by 1 three years in a row..... same way you can't assume that since you got hit last year, you won't get it again this year...

That's my take, anyway.
Over 100 Climate Justice Activists Occupy MT Capitol and Tell Gov. Schweitzer- “Big Oil Out of Montana!”..this is over the proposed Keystone Pipeline, 20X bigger than one that broke last week in Yellowstone spilling oil 250 miles down the flooded river. They are accusing the Governor of wanting to turn Montana into an extraction state.


A climate change abstract to put the tired ones to sleep..

Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1193

Convergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescales

* Galen A. McKinley,
* Amanda R. Fay,
* Taro Takahashi and
* Nicolas Metzl

Abstract

Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide substantially reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere1, slowing global climate change. Some studies suggest that the rate at which the oceans take up carbon has significantly decreased in recent years2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Others suggest that decadal variability confounds the detection of long-term trends9,10, 11. Here, we examine trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface waters of three large biogeographic regions in the North Atlantic, using observational data collected between 1981 and 2009. We compare these oceanic observations with trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, taken from a global observational network. We show that trends in oceanic carbon dioxide concentrations are variable on a decadal timescale, often diverging from trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, when the entire 29-year period is considered, oceanic trends converge with atmospheric trends in all three regions; it takes 25 years for this long-term trend to emerge and overcome the influence of decadal-scale variability. Furthermore, in the southernmost biome, the data suggest that warming—driven by a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic forcing12, 13—has started to reduce oceanic uptake of carbon in recent years.


http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/ full/ngeo1193.html
Quoting Levi32:


Well think about it....we input as much data as we can into computer models that are built with physical equations which attempt to simulate reality. You can derive all kinds of field parameters from those equations, as the model has to make the atmosphere run in the simulation, and thus are an amazing multitude of possible parameters we could derive from that modeled atmosphere. They are every bit as "accurate" as the common parameters we use every day in the sense that those common parameters usually depend a great deal upon the other paremeters that we don't use very often. A lot of them are just simple calculations (like dewpoint).
ok gotcha

Quoting Cantu5977:


Their is talk that they are going to include it in the near future but who knows...If they would add it I would be set for life haha.

I subscribed last July and Im not ashamed to admit that I learned A LOT from him. Its amazing how much you can take to a certain extent from just looking at the forecast500mb pattern anomalies...haha thanks JB.
so if I joined today, would I be able to view all his archive posts/videos?

That's what I would care about most. Long range radar and different layers are available here on wunderground, upper level soundings and skew Ts are easy to find, I have too many satellite links, models are nice and all but for what I need I already got it. Except maybe those long range ensemble means you mentioned.
Quoting TomTaylor:
ok gotcha

so if I joined today, would I be able to view all his archive posts/videos?

That's probably what I would care about most.


Nope as far as I know they removed everything :(

And they need another long range blogger because Paul Pastelok for a lack of better words aint cutting it.
Quoting Cantu5977:


Nope as far as I know they removed everything :(

And they need another long range blogger because Paul Pastelok for a lack of better words aint cutting it.
ah darn. That's incredibly lame.

Guess I won't be getting professional version then lol
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Space Shuttle Atlantis over Long Island, Bahamas:




http://cio.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/mu ltimedia/gallery/iss028e015807.html

Atlantis Approaches Station for Docking
ISS028-E-015807 (10 July 2011) --- The space shuttle Atlantis is seen over the Bahamas prior to a perfect docking with the International Space Station at 10:07 a.m. (CDT). Part of a Russian Progress spacecraft which is docked to the station is in the foreground.
This is absolutely gorgeous.... Long Island at the tip, Exuma against the right wing... Thanks, CRS...

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
15:00 PM JST July 13 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ma-On (980 hPa) located at 19.8N 151.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.7N 147.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 21.8N 142.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.7N 138.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe Tropical Storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours then accelerate

Severe Tropical Storm will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Severe Tropical Storm will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Severe Tropical Storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T4.5 after 24 hours
Tropical Storm Ma-On
Wind: 65 MPH — Location: 19.7N 151.4E — Movement: W
no way!!
here we go!!
From MunichRE: 2011 HalfYear NaturalCatastrophe Review (PDF)
Among other interesting facts to be gleaned, the SpringTornadoOutbreak when combined to be viewed as a single event is the 5th most costly disaster in US records and the 9th most costly in global records.

"We are rewriting the financial and economic history of disasters on a global scale"
"The global bill for [the first half of] 2011 was $265 billion...well above the previous record of $220 billion in [all of] 2005."

And hurricane season has yet to begin in earnest.
205 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 16N27W TO 10N31W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE AXIS IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

alittle more interesting today watching even though slim very slim chances area just north of the greater antillias
Gotta wait for Dr.Masters to go on his "vacation".*

* ie Visit his secret volcanic lair to crank up the hurricane machines.
1174. IKE
Last hurricane to hit the lower 48....


Whats that spinning in the bay of campeche this am
Quoting breeezee:
Whats that spinning in the bay of campeche this am


looks impressive, not much time left over water though
really coming together quick
Good morning everyone. Severe Tropical Storm Ma-on's appearance has improved dramatically the past 24 hours, and is clearly going under some steady intensification. Hopefully Dr. M mentions it in his next post, as it seems it may impact Japan early next week, one thing that country doesn't need.

Euro's been very consistent.




Ma-on is massive in size.

1181. Dakster
Ike - slapped the heck out of Texas...

I think Texas could use a nice slow moving TS about now. Get them out of the drought!
jb is now on murdocks payroll the sneakie dude
1183. rod2635
Quoting Skyepony:
Over 100 Climate Justice Activists Occupy MT Capitol and Tell Gov. Schweitzer- “Big Oil Out of Montana!”..this is over the proposed Keystone Pipeline, 20X bigger than one that broke last week in Yellowstone spilling oil 250 miles down the flooded river. They are accusing the Governor of wanting to turn Montana into an extraction state.


A climate change abstract to put the tired ones to sleep..

Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1193

Convergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescales

* Galen A. McKinley,
* Amanda R. Fay,
* Taro Takahashi and
* Nicolas Metzl

Abstract

Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide substantially reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere1, slowing global climate change. Some studies suggest that the rate at which the oceans take up carbon has significantly decreased in recent years2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Others suggest that decadal variability confounds the detection of long-term trends9,10, 11. Here, we examine trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface waters of three large biogeographic regions in the North Atlantic, using observational data collected between 1981 and 2009. We compare these oceanic observations with trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, taken from a global observational network. We show that trends in oceanic carbon dioxide concentrations are variable on a decadal timescale, often diverging from trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, when the entire 29-year period is considered, oceanic trends converge with atmospheric trends in all three regions; it takes 25 years for this long-term trend to emerge and overcome the influence of decadal-scale variability. Furthermore, in the southernmost biome, the data suggest that warming—driven by a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic forcing12, 13—has started to reduce oceanic uptake of carbon in recent years.


http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/ full/ngeo1193.html


Or something interesting to wake up to. This summary and recent developments in the Amazon basin suggest our 'supply' of carbon sinks is dwindling. We may with to consider a genetically engineered salt water algae with high CO2 uptake, one that would only survive within a range of 200-400 ppm CO2 and within defined temperature and nutrient brackets. Deployed and allowed to thrive, these blooms might prove a short term nuisance til they self destructed as CO2 or temperature dropped below their requirements. However, I'd rather bet on this than the kindness of industrialized nations in reducing CO2.
Quoting IceCoast:
Good morning everyone. Severe Tropical Storm Ma-on's appearance has improved dramatically the past 24 hours, and is clearly going under some steady intensification. Hopefully Dr. M mentions it in his next post, as it seems it may impact Japan early next week, one thing that country doesn't need.

Euro's been very consistent.




maybe korea
so they gave the system in the boc a yellow card
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.
800 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

Quoting islander101010:
maybe korea


Maybe, but it really looks like the worst impact will be felt in Japan and the islands offshore. Still a long ways out to be pinpointing though.

Via JMA:
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT.

THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
1189. tkeith
Quoting islander101010:
jb is now on murdocks payroll the sneakie dude
hopefully he wont be hacking anybodys phone or medical records for weather tips...
WOW mid July and Dr. Masters is talking about temps and dry weather - it is a foreboding of what is to come in the tropics, it's so quiet out there - it is eerie.....
Quoting Dakster:
Ike - slapped the heck out of Texas...

I think Texas could use a nice slow moving TS about now. Get them out of the drought!
Amen to that. Early next week we may have a day or 2 it does not hit 100 and they say we could have a 20 to 30 percent chance of a shower, that is positive news for us if it happens. Have a great day!
Quoting IceCoast:


Maybe, but it really looks like the worst impact will be felt in Japan and the islands offshore. Still a long ways out to be pinpointing though.

Via JMA:
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT.

THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
Now this makes the GFS look a little worse.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
WOW mid July and Dr. Masters is talking about temps and dry weather - it is a foreboding of what is to come in the tropics, it's so quiet out there - it is eerie.....



its now really mid july in tell the 15th
News is misleading i searched the last time a supertyhoon hit japan and the news had a tropical storm that hit japan that was supertyphoon before it weakened...
Does the GFS show any development in the atlantic in the coming days to weeks? its pretty dead quiet in the atlantic....
morning. hey, anyone know what's up with the controls. when i want to plus a good comment made here, it is like it never took the vote after i refresh the page. are they working okay?
Quoting CarolinaJim:
morning. hey, anyone know what's up with the controls. when i want to plus a good comment made here, it is like it never took the vote after i refresh the page. are they working okay?



are you uesing IE or firefox
Hey Taz - yes you are correct, I guess I could say it's almost mid July. Thanks for the correction:) Happy Summer Taz!
Quoting Tazmanian:



are you uesing IE or firefox

Lol can u explain why u like firefox so much, is the new version that good?
Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
Hey Taz - yes your are correct, I guess I could say it's almost mid July. Thanks for the correction:) Happy Summer Taz!



your welcome and thanks
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Lol can u explain why u like firefox so much, is the new version that good?




yes take your pick


Link
firefox taz. i like firefox better than IE.
Quoting CarolinaJim:
firefox taz. i like firefox better than IE.


me too
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes take your pick


Link

LOL it must be better cause IE wont let me opean it!!!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

LOL it must be better cause IE wont let me opean it!!!



Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

LOL it must be better cause IE wont let me opean it!!!



Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

LOL it must be better cause IE wont let me opean it!!!




ok i give up on the link try this


http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/channel/
Quoting Tazmanian:




ok i give up on the link try this


http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/channel/

:(
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

:(


did it your
Holy crap, is there a TC making landfall in Mexico...seriously though, pretty impressive.
Quoting Tazmanian:


did it your

For some reason it does not get to the page.
Ok, im surprised nobody on here thinks this is a TC


1214. hydrus
The NAM still forms a low in the S.W.Caribbean in 84 hours..This is the third day in a row....
Lookie here:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107131220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011071212, , BEST, 0, 183N, 882W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071218, , BEST, 0, 189N, 896W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 918W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071306, , BEST, 0, 195N, 937W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 953W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting MrstormX:
Ok, im surprised nobody on here thinks this is a TC



ATCF apparently thinks it has potential, anyway...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

For some reason it does not get to the page.




then you most not be doing it right
1218. hydrus
Looks like a weak depression on satellite...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lookie here:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107131220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011071212, , BEST, 0, 183N, 882W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071218, , BEST, 0, 189N, 896W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 918W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071306, , BEST, 0, 195N, 937W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 953W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



i no this is a small ch but bert comeing ?
.
1221. hydrus
Very big and dangerous...
1222. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Lol can u explain why u like firefox so much, is the new version that good?



Most if not all the wunderground developers design with the FireFox browser,in mind
Quoting Tazmanian:




then you most not be doing it right
Google firefox and follow that link. Might be bunch of hits on a particular link. Main site will sort you to best link at that time.
looks like 97L may have a better ch then we 1st think
Meh ill get it once my new pc and internet gets here next week cant wait im getting 20mg/s compared to 1.5.
Whats the possible upperlevel conditions for TS Ma-on for days 3 and on. I noticed that current forcast keeps it over very warm water even as it turns north towards Japan.

Although I do not expect this to be any higher than CAT 3 once it gets at that latitude and that's if she achieves maximum possible strength before she starts turning north.

It also appears to have jogged west or west southwest over the last 3-6 hours. She reminds a little of the Katrina with respect to size anyway. Storm is massive, so will be the surge. Hopefully this thing will stay away from Japan.
I really hope invest 97L doesnt develop. we've seen enough hits for mexico and its going to run into land in a couple of hours
1230. P451
Good Morning.

18hrs, BOC AOI. Impressive how quickly something can pop up. Seems to be the general theme this season.





___________________________________________
As to the browser debate I resisted firefox for years because it just wouldn't display a number of webpages properly. Once they fixed that I made the switch and have been more than happy with it. I've found there are sites IE now won't display or function properly where firefox works fine. Shoe has been on the other foot for some time now it that regard.

It does use a lot of memory however and seems to have trouble dumping that memory. It just keeps using more and more of it. If you surf a lot you're going to find yourself closing the program and reopening a fresh version otherwise you get bogged down and are prone to crashing. Other than that it's quite good and the addons and ability to tweak every facet of the browser is great. I don't even think about IE anymore.

If you're going to switch try a stable version first - don't go for a beta version because if your platform or a site you visit happens to be one of the bugs they haven't worked out yet then you will get annoyed.

Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 97L may have a better ch then we 1st think


A better chance... look at it, it is already more of an invest then any other have been this season. 96L once had a 40% chance of development, and it was trash...so I say why doesn't this have a better chance, if it isn't a TC already?
1232. hydrus
Bad news for Central America..
Comment 1230,
Ty for the info, my new PC seems perfect for firefox then.
1234. hydrus
This would be good for parts of Texas..
i think i re called one storm that went frorm a wave too a name storm i think it fromed off the W coast of FL
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think i re called one storm that went frorm a wave too a name storm i think it fromed off the W coast of FL


Claudette
Quoting MrstormX:


Claudette



and it is was still geting strong
NHC is clearly going to have to issue a special advisory, to name this thing...it will be long hopeless at 2 pm.
Good Morning.....Dr. M quite correct last week on his Blog with regard to the topography around the BOC which favors relatively "easy" spin up of storms if conditions right........Guess the models missed this one?........... :)
1240. hydrus
8 to 14 day 500 mb..
Thats a large systeme
I saw this vort like system (97L now) over the southern Yucatan yesterday and mentioned it moving into the BOC during the afternoon.
Execuse me but does anybody know when the Texas ridge will breakdown so they can get some tropical moisture because this season the stubborn high has been sending everything into texas.
The youngest NHC forecaster made this 10%, wtf I thought young people were supposed to be liberal.
1245. P451
Quoting MrstormX:


A better chance... look at it, it is already more of an invest then any other have been this season. 96L once had a 40% chance of development, and it was trash...so I say why doesn't this have a better chance, if it isn't a TC already?


That 40% was a joke and everyone thought as much when they did that late that particular evening. It was a 10-20% system the whole time. The system itself was worthy of invest status. For four hours the morning it was tagged it looked decent and was developing quite well. That afternoon the conditions reversed drastically and that was the end of it's window. It happens...

As to the BOC system it too is properly tagged. Questionable if it develops enough to be classified prior to landfall.

This here is why the percentage system was a bad idea. I liked things the way they were before that. Even the earlier addition of low-medium-high caused problems/debate that is unnecessary.

When they just put out discussions briefing us on a system it was perfect. When they felt the system had a chance to develop that is when they would insert "Tropical depression may form."

That was all we needed.

What's next?

"This system has an 11.765% chance of development over the next 12 hours, 14 minutes, and 37.2 seconds."

???

Unnecessary...and I tend to ignore it.

I don't need crayons to tell me a system looks good. I don't need to be told "Eh it's only 30%, probably not" or "Oooooo 50% look out now!" only to see the 30% take off and the 50% die.

Then see rabid debates over it.

Blob--->Low--->Invest--->Depression

That's all we need. We argue over those terms enough as it is on here. Now we argue over percentages.

Useless.....

1246. P451
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Thats a large systeme


Has that egg in a basket appearance.

First vis image, definitely a legit invest.

1248. hydrus
Florida wet...1 month outlook...
1249. P451
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning.....Dr. M quite correct last week on his Blog with regard to the topography around the BOC which favors relatively "easy" spin up of storms if conditions right........Guess the models missed this one?........... :)


A model hinted at a low developing in the BOC several days ago. Forgot which one and what the time frame was. GFS 96 hours maybe?

Models are just a guide anyways especially once you get beyond 72 hours. After 120 hours their success rate plummets. After 168 hours they're just for fun/interest IMO. That won't stop people gawking at a monster storm at 192 or 276 or 384 hours though...and expecting it to be there 16 days later. *shrug*

Good morning! I looked at the current SAL and until it relaxes a bit I just don't see much getting started in the Atlantic. I think we will have to look closer to the CONUS/Westerm Caribbean for any potential developments
Mexican radar, shows evident rotation...and heavy tropical rain.

Link
P451 there are a lot of ppl out there who dont know as much as we do. Its used for the general public to understand and use, not just for you.
With all of the actual numbers, computers and mathematical algorythms used in tropical meteorology, it is no wonder that the mets and scientists like percentages. I did prefer the old system of low/medium/high better and also like a pre-season indicator of below-average/average/above-average as opposed to "guessing" as to the exact numbers (Gray and Company opened that door and everyone got burned with the 2005 season). Or someone makes a "lucky" guess and comes back at the end of the season with a "I told you so" like they were a modern day tropical Nostradamus........ :)
1254. Jax82
Pretty amazing how what used to be a 0% chance of development for the AOI yesterday is now an Invest. Looks like the same spot Arlene made landfall is going to get more rain.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
21:00 PM JST July 13 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ma-On (970 hPa) located at 19.8N 149.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.8N 145.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 21.9N 141.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.9N 136.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Quoting P451:


A model hinted at a low developing in the BOC several days ago. Forgot which one and what the time frame was. GFS 96 hours maybe?

Models are just a guide anyways especially once you get beyond 72 hours. After 120 hours their success rate plummets. After 168 hours they're just for fun/interest IMO. That won't stop people gawking at a monster storm at 192 or 276 or 384 hours though...and expecting it to be there 16 days later. *shrug*



I think you are correct and some of the models also hinted at a system threading through the Yucantan Channel in this same timeframe....We are only a few hundred miles off to the West at this point...... :)
sure looks like a tropical storm. good outflow in the ne quandrant. the strong high over Texas has once again forced the system into mexico
1259. hydrus
1260. Jax82
Here was Arlene.


Here is Invest 97L today.
If TD 2 and TD 5 of last year were classified, why not this...it is already way more impressive as seen on satellite and radar images.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest

1264. hydrus
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest



Any chance of a TCFA?
1266. SLU
Not far from a TD but landfall might prevent the NHC from upgrading.

Quoting MrstormX:


Any chance of a TCFA?


I doubt it...

The NHC will more than likely let this one go.

Very interesting how quickly this spun up though.
97L has about 4 hours left before landfall.

Development aint likely, especially since the NHC only has this at 10%.
Gotta love midget cyclone's.

Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131312
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Quoting MrstormX:
Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link


Great link.............Thank You.
50% now, nhc...good to see they care
97L is pouch 02L. This is from yesterday's synopsis:

SYNOPSIS 2011071200

P02L
15N, 83W
700hPa

ECMWF: Weakens over land, but an OW max persists until a pouch redevelops over the eastern Pacific. While the other models hint at southward motion, ECMWF continues moving west-northwestward.

GFS: Unlike yesterday, it appears to weaken more over land, which makes it more difficult to continue tracking it. Does it just continue moving westward and dissipate, or is it pulled into the developing monsoonal system farther to the southeast over Central America? Tough to say. Regardless, P02L is depicted as weak at 48 hours.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, except that UKMET depicts a large OW max that moves southward over the eastern Pacific after 48 hours. I did not track it because it never regains a distinct pouch center. UKMET also develops a strong system over Central America.

NOGAPS: Similar to UKMET in that it moves PO2L (or its remnant) southward after 48 hours. The difference is that NOGAPS has a stronger pouch with a more continuous track, so I continued to assign positions during what may, in the end, turn out to be a monsoonal development of a different system.

ECMWF -8.0 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
GFS -8.5 v700 & RH 48h
UKMET -8.2 v700 & RH 48h
NOGAPS -8.3 v700 120h
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
1277. SLU
The highly controversial TD #2 of 2010.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Invest 97L of July 2011.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:



Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.


This one will likely end the same way too. Although the NHC has been somewhat less conservative this year..
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:





Wouldn't that be something if we had two Brets exactly in the same place.
1282. ackee
I think 97L should be upgraded to a TD#2
97L is the most impressive invest this year, even pre-Arlene didn't look as impressive.
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..
1285. hydrus
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
Link
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.
Quoting Skyepony:
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..


Saw it yesterday over the southern Yucatan moving to it's location in the BOC, was racing then and racing now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.


Radar shows <4 hours before landfall, it is tightening up though. It's upgrade will depend on the forecaster.
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.



Link
Unless the COC reforms or 97L slows down, it won't make it to the 2 pm TWO to be red.
Goodbye 97L, on to shore you go
1293. hydrus
Central America is about to get soaked...
Pressure continues to fall near 97L

You guys understand that for now that Texas ridge will be blocking any tropical systems into the US but the models forecast it to weaken at the end of this week. if we get something like invest 97L that might help the drought there
1296. P451
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.


I like to use the University of Hawaii satellite imagery.

You can manipulate the URLs of the links to get any amount of time you want.

You can mouseover any of the loop links, copy and paste it to your browser, and then manipulate them.

12 Hour standard loop, NA, WV.

48 Hour loop (manipulated URL), NA, WV.

*Warning, longer loops are system intensive, do not access if you have un-saved work!*


Note the "&period=" portion of the URLs. 720 is equal to 12 hours. 1440 to 24, 2880 to 48 hours, and so on and so forth. You can get as much as you want from the server.

The longer loops I tend to up the "&incr=" portion from 30 (30 minutes) to 60.

Such as...

96 hours NA WV Loop, manipulated period and incr in the URL (&period=5760&incr=60) - 4 day loop, 60 minutes per frame.



1297. hydrus
Quoting neutralenso:
You guys understand that for now that Texas ridge will be blocking any tropical systems into the US but the models forecast it to weaken at the end of this week. if we get something like invest 97L that might help the drought there
Northern and western sections of Texas will probably miss out though...jmo
Quoting hydrus:
Central America is about to get soaked...
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
1299. hydrus
Quoting belizeit:
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
Soaked again.??
Quoting hydrus:
Soaked again.??
For the last couple of days it has been raining a inch or more per day yesterday saw 1.7 inches .
Quoting hydrus:
Link
thanks Hydrus (and P.Pulse)! it's funny, when i went to your link Hydrus, the loop running chronologically starts on frame 11 of 24 :P
kinda odd, had me confused at first, but certainly no less helpful once realized :D
(edit: thanks to P451 as well!)
1183 rod2635 "We may with to consider a genetically engineered salt water algae with high CO2 uptake, one that would only survive within a range of 200-400 ppm CO2 and within defined temperature and nutrient brackets. Deployed and allowed to thrive, these blooms might prove a short term nuisance til they self destructed as CO2 or temperature dropped below their requirements. However, I'd rather bet on this than the kindness of industrialized nations in reducing CO2."

Three problems:
1) The limiting factor on oceanic phytoplankton, algae, and cyanobacteria growth is the lack of a sufficient amount of dissolved nutrients, not carbon dioxide.
2) When blooms die, they release massive amounts of CO2.

3) Unicellular organisms are like comic book heroes/villains: What doesn't kill them, mutates them.
Stressors in the environment strong enough to cause damage causes normally asexual species to have sex, ie exchange genetic material during reproduction. Such mixing tends to lead to strain variations that can survive the stressor.
Stressors strong enough to kill causes them to lyse (ie break up to spread gene fragments) rather than undergo apoptosis (rot). Those gene fragments are in turn ingested by the (barely surviving) remainder as building blocks to create new genes. Slow enough population extinction rate often leads to mutant strains which can survive (and often thrive) in the conditions produced by the environmental stressor.

In other words, uncontrolled release of genetically altered microorganisms into the environment leads to a good chance of unleashing a plague as a unwanted side-effect.
GFS at 78 hrs has a TD making land fall in Nicaragua
wow invest 97L IS HERE!!
Good morning to all! That spinup in the BOC is impressive... has anyone heard about the possibility of a low forming off the SE coast (around SC)? We could use some rain in eastern NC.

BTW Taz, I agree. Firefox rules... IE is a legal virus:)
NAM takes it to the NW passing close to the Honduran shore at 84 hrs.
97L is definitely a TD, radar and visible satellite images show that it is way better looking then say TD's #2 & #5 were last year, heck even Bonnie.

Quoting belizeit:
NAM takes it to the NW passing close to the Honduran shore at 84 hrs.

hey can i have a link to the NAM model please. Thanks
Quoting neutralenso:

hey can i have a link to the NAM model please. Thanks
Link
1314. hydrus