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July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2009

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the first half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, seven of 14 years (50%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes. Last year's Hurricane Bertha was one such rare early July Cape Verdes hurricane. Bertha's 120 mph winds made it the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Bertha also set the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 1-15. North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Oddly, the Florida Peninsula has been struck by only two storms that formed in the first half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, but are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are the are the coolest SST anomalies we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. Stronger-than-average trade winds were observed through most of the period November 2008 - May 2009, which helped cool the tropical Atlantic substantially. Strong winds mix up colder water from the depths and cause greater evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through mid-July, so SSTs should remain near average during this period.

Typically, July tropical storms form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida. SSTs are about 1.0°C above average for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico, but near average elsewhere. July storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. There will be one or two fronts moving off the U.S. coast over the next two weeks, and we will need to watch these for development. Wind shear is too high and SSTs are usually too cold in July to allow African tropical waves to develop into tropical storms. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes,

Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 2, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures there rose 0.5°C over the past two weeks, and are now 0.45°C above the threshold for El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch in early June, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños, and latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of June 28, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.95°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past two months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed at the end of May.

The jet stream is forecast (Figure 4) to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period.


Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb, as forecast by the 06Z July 02, 2009 run of the GFS model. The position and strength of the subtropical jet stream is forecast to change little over the next two weeks, and this jet will bring high wind shear to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into mid-July. There will at times be a region of low shear between the polar jet (northern set of arrows on the plots) and the subtropical jet, allowing for possible tropical development off the coast of North Carolina. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much, and is typical for June and July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical July pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any July storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 50% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 20% chance of a named storm forming during the first half of July.

Vote for Mike Theiss as an Antarctica blogger
Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss, who wrote our Ultimate Chase photography blog for two years until a new job took him to South America, wants your help. He's entering a Quark Expeditions competition to receive an expense-paid 2-week trip to Antarctica, where he will do some intensive photography and blogging. In order to go, he needs the votes to show that he's a popular blogger. So, if you liked his posts while he was blogging for wunderground, and want to see him blog for wunderground during this potential Antarctica voyage, go to http://www.blogyourwaytoantarctica.com/blogs/view /220 and cast a vote. It takes about 3 minutes navigate through the registration and voting process. Mike will be back chasing hurricanes this August, and has promised to post his excellent storm photos on wunderground should we help him secure the Antarctica gig.

Have a great holiday weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
It also seems it maybe a short-live event. Weakening during winter 2009-2010



That makes sense since this El Nino is likely just a reactionary spike to the PDO going into its cold phase. That's also why it will probably not be too strong.

Quoting AllStar17:


Levi...

What are your thoughts on:
1) the wave that just emerged off the African coast
2) activity over the next 2 weeks
3) environmental conditions over the next few weeks because I looked at a few shear models and they are showing VERY favorable conditions over the ENTIRE Atlantic next week, the most favorable conditions all season.


1) Look at the last few impressive waves that came before it. They died because of the dry air surging off Africa to the north. The east Atlantic is shut down for now. It's still early in the year anyway. The waves of course should be watched as they get farther west though.

2 and 3) The models keep the TUTT hanging around in the central/eastern Caribbean for at least the next couple weeks, which should limit activity there, along with the strong easterly trades. The only area I'm really looking at for development chances in the first half of July are off the SE US coast with old fronts dragging through there. The western Caribbean and BOC may have a chance sometime with a moisture surge from the east Pacific but it's unlikely in the next 10 days.

Overall pretty quiet for the first half of July. I'm not confident going farther out than that because it's too hard to know what the pattern may be like that far out. I'll be making a forecast for the 2nd half of July about mid-way through the month. This is my outlook for the first half of July
2002. Dar9895
Quoting AllStar17:


Levi...

What are your thoughts on:
1) the wave that just emerged off the African coast
2) activity over the next 2 weeks
3) environmental conditions over the next few weeks because I looked at a few shear models and they are showing VERY favorable conditions over the ENTIRE Atlantic next week, the most favorable conditions all season.

Correct with at least 2 named storm this month.
This was the 8 PM:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGHER VALUES ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT FEEDING NWD INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 60W-73W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

2005. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
my new hurricane forcast calls for 1 name storm and no hurricaes this year


1 storm?
2006. Dar9895
Quoting Levi32:


Well those years you mentioned were not late starters, and 89 was actually more active than normal in July.

El Nino Modoki is not what we have this season, at least right now. The center of the warming is where it should be, right in the far eastern Pacific:


About late starters I know even 1997 and 2006 with el nino event started in June I think this year could be slightly active than those 2 years but a bit less active than 2004, although the 1st storm formed in July 31th.
2007. Dar9895
Quoting AllStar17:


One Again, BenBlogger is a troll and please stop quoting him!!!!

O.K!
National Hurricane Center: Miami, Fl
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC July 6 2009
====================================

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure (94E) located about 425 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are marginally favorable for development and this system could become a tropical depression tonight or Monday as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 MPH

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a moderate chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours
oops it was posted below. I did not see that comment
Quoting Tazmanian:



my new hurricane forcast calls for no name storms and no hurricane this year


none??? Guess it could happen but even 1914 had one.
2011. Levi32
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center: Miami, Fl
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC July 6 2009
====================================

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure (94E) located about 425 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are marginally favorable for development and this system could become a tropical depression tonight or Monday as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 MPH

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a moderate chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours


It looks like 94E only has a short window of opportunity left to develop. Within the next 36 hours it will move over cold SSTs. I'll be surprised if the east Pacific doesn't see at least 1 named storm in the next 10 days.
what's a troll?
Quoting kimoskee:
what's a troll?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum or chat room, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response[1] or to generally disrupt normal on-topic discussion
Thanks! Noted!
Quoting Weather456:


My forecast was 2 named storms and since we already had 90L and 92L, I've met my quota. So I'm here waiting for June 1 2010 for my new quota.

Quoting Levi32:


Happy early birthday =)


Thanks
I am very hesitant of vigorous tropical waves. The one in the caribbean has been around for a while. Seems to have strong energy with it and keeps showing itself. This one will probably not develop - but does it set a tone for the rest of the season? Vigorous waves coming off of Africa that will blow up in the Caribbean or GOMEX given the right conditions. Also, the waves are coming off at a low latitude - meaning more possible threats to the caribbean and GOMEX. Just something to think about!!
2017. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


It looks like 94E only has a short window of opportunity left to develop. Within the next 36 hours it will move over cold SSTs. I'll be surprised if the east Pacific doesn't see at least 1 named storm in the next 10 days.


Actually....wow....just looked at the loop and that thing is clearly a TD with a closed circulation and plenty of convection. Oh well....TPC continues to mystify.
Ex-94L
Quoting Chicklit:
This was the 8 PM:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGHER VALUES ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT FEEDING NWD INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 60W-73W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.



Did you just finish the book you read? LOL!
Quoting Weather456:
It also seems it maybe a short-live event. Weakening during winter 2009-2010



I know this is looking WAY Ahead, but 2010 could pose to be an active one.
And it has the 2004 list..
I threw up in mouth a ;ittle bit
2022. Dar9895
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know this is looking WAY Ahead, but 2010 could pose to be an active one.
And it has the 2004 list..

Yep but I think with an la nina it could be very active like the incredible 1995 season with the 2004 most names.
AOI
MARK
16.1N/71.0W


latest image 856 edt
So, Levi

You think we should have Tropical Depression 3-E? It does look pretty good on satellite.

2025. Dar9895
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I am very hesitant of vigorous tropical waves. The one in the caribbean has been around for a while. Seems to have strong energy with it and keeps showing itself. This one will probably not develop - but does it set a tone for the rest of the season? Vigorous waves coming off of Africa that will blow up in the Caribbean or GOMEX given the right conditions. Also, the waves are coming off at a low latitude - meaning more possible threats to the caribbean and GOMEX. Just something to think about!!

Probably, Let see for the couples of weeks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ex-94L
too cold
You have no clue do you?
2028. Levi32
Quoting AllStar17:
So, Levi

You think we should have Tropical Depression 3-E? It does look pretty good on satellite.



I do. The circulation is well-defined and closed, and there is more than enough convection to meet the criteria. They can't ask for better.....for some reason they probably want the convection more organized before classifying, but what can you expect from a TD? If it got anymore organized than that it would be a TS.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
You have no clue do you?


Who are you talking to?
2030. fsumet
If you want to look at the map Weather456 posted and the NCEP CFS forecast you can go here: Weekly ENSO evolution and it is updated every Monday. We will probably be heading into a moderate El Nino in the fall, and moderate to strong in the winter according to CPC.

El Nino maps (compare to the one from this year at the top of the page):

7/4/2006 (Weak El Nino year based on SST and SOI at CPC and Australian Analysis)


7/3/2004 (Weak El Nino Year at CPC and not even listed as El Nino year in Australian Analysis)


7/2/2002 (Weak to Moderate El Nino year based on SST and Weak based on SOI by Australian Analysis; Moderate El Nino from CPC)


Average for June 1997 (Very Strong EL Nino year based on SST and Strong based on SOI from Australian Analysis and Strong from CPC)


Average for June 1994 (Weak to Moderate El Nino year based on SST and Strong based on SOI from Australian Analysis and Moderate from CPC)


Average for June 1987 (Moderate to Strong El Nino year based on SOI and SST from Australian Analysis and Moderate from CPC)


Some other links to look at:
ENSO analysis
Australia ENSO analysis

Current Operational SST Anomalies:
SST anomalies
Quoting Levi32:


I do. The circulation is well-defined and closed, and there is more than enough convection to meet the criteria. They can't ask for better.....for some reason they probably want the convection more organized before classifying, but what can you expect from a TD? If it got anymore organized than that it would be a TS.


Yep....NHC continuing their conservative route this year. Very puzzling, if it is a storm, it is a storm....classify it!
Quoting AllStar17:


Who are you talking to?

you!
Speaking of el nino here is a little blog on 1998 el nino year Florida tornados Link
2034. beell
Nice post, fsumet.
Thanks.
That's the third AOI in the last ten days.

That sub-tropical jet is TRYING to produce...

It's all we in the Texas Dust Bowl Oven can hope for.
Looking at those pics there is no consistency on how ATL SST's react to an El Nino. is there supposed to be a correlation? cause that series of pictures disproves that theory
And?
Quoting beell:
Nice post, fsumet.
Thanks.


I agree! So which year can we compare the most to this year? Based on those maps he showed.
Good Night all, I'll see you 2mr

Caribbean Coral Reefs and Climate Change
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Speaking of el nino here is a little blog on 1998 el nino year Florida tornados Link


That has to be one of the saddest things I have ever read. Those that died, you can read and know that it was the entire family. And the 9 and 11 year old...how sad:-(
2041. fsumet
Looking at those pics there is no consistency on how ATL SST's react to an El Nino. is there supposed to be a correlation? cause that series of pictures disproves that theory

SSTs in the Atlantic don't have any correlation with El Nino. Each map is near the same time period as the one at the top of the page. It is showing how each El Nino in the Pacific developed.
I spy a nice tropical wave somewhere.Will it be something to watch?
2043. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Looking at those pics there is no consistency on how ATL SST's react to an El Nino. is there supposed to be a correlation? cause that series of pictures disproves that theory


Yes there usually is, but weak El Ninos don't always have a great effect, and a lot of those pictures were weak ninos. Also we're in the warm phase of the AMO which is a long-term oscillation in the SSTs over the Atlantic. The current warm phase means it will be harder for El Ninos to pull SSTs below normal over the Atlantic. Generally though El Nino has the greatest effect on the SSTs in the tropics south of 20N, and not so much in the northern Atlantic.


image as of 927 pm edt
Quoting fsumet:
Looking at those pics there is no consistency on how ATL SST's react to an El Nino. is there supposed to be a correlation? cause that series of pictures disproves that theory

SSTs in the Atlantic don't have any correlation with El Nino. This is from near the same time period to this year for how the El Nino developed in the PACIFIC.


i realize that an el nino and la nina occur in the pacific i just thought that SST'S around the world should react accordingly (energy can't be created nor destroyed) more or less energy in the pacific = more or less around the globe correct or no?
2046. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I agree! So which year can we compare the most to this year? Based on those maps he showed.


Based on behavior 2006 and 2002 are the best analogs out of that set.

Quoting fsumet:
Looking at those pics there is no consistency on how ATL SST's react to an El Nino. is there supposed to be a correlation? cause that series of pictures disproves that theory

SSTs in the Atlantic don't have any correlation with El Nino. Each map is near the same time period as the one at the top of the page. It is showing how each El Nino in the PACIFIC developed.


Warm SSTs in the Pacific associated with El Nino do usually tend to cool the SSTs in the Atlantic, although as I said it doesn't always happen or in a pronounced way.

2047. fsumet
Levi your 2 maps don't show the Atlantic much. Both are from the Pacific. I don't see any noticeable change in the Atlantic except in the Gulf from the image on the left. The images don't say when in the year this occurs though either.
is it me or the wave is lookin better and better each time
Quoting RainyEyes:


That has to be one of the saddest things I have ever read. Those that died, you can read and know that it was the entire family. And the 9 and 11 year old...how sad:-(

It was like a bomb was dropped...it was near US 192 near 5 miles or so from Disney..
2050. beell
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I agree! So which year can we compare the most to this year? Based on those maps he showed.


I like 07/02/02-3rd one down from the top. But I am not fluent with el nino.
What say you?
Quoting fsumet:
Levi your 2 maps don't show the Atlantic. Both are from the Pacific.


look at the gulf, hot during la nina, cold during el nino
Can someone please look at this link??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation? Maybe mid-level. This tropical wave looks really good to me right now. Shouldn't it at least be an invest? Just IMO.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


i realize that an el nino and la nina occur in the pacific i just thought that SST'S around the world should react accordingly (energy can't be created nor destroyed) more or less energy in the pacific = more or less around the globe correct or no?


The earth's oceans aren't a closed system, though. Energy from the sun, geothermal sources, ice melt, amount of freshwater runoff, wind energy, and other factors all affect SSTs.
2054. Levi32
Quoting fsumet:
Levi your 2 maps don't show the Atlantic much. Both are from the Pacific. I don't see any noticeable change in the Atlantic except in the Gulf from the image on the left.


Yeah but you can clearly see what the trend is. There is a correlation, you'll learn about it in any report on El Nino. It's not the strongest correlation the Atlantic has with El Nino, as things like the NAO can strongly influence SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, but El Nino does tend to bring down the SSTs. Again, we are in the warm phase of the AMO, which will tend to offset any cooling effect by an El Nino event. Also we haven't had a really strong El Nino since 1997, and weaker events don't always influence all the atmospheric parameters.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Can someone please look at this link??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation? Maybe mid-level. This tropical wave looks really good to me right now. Shouldn't it at least be an invest? Just IMO.


The one S of Puerto Rico? It looks good to me too. It looks like it just started spinning.
Caribbean wave appears to be slowing in forward speed possible MLC at 16N/70.5W
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Can someone please look at this link??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation? Maybe mid-level. This tropical wave looks really good to me right now. Shouldn't it at least be an invest? Just IMO.

I know right!It looks like that big blob of convection to the north of the wave is trying to wrap around.Circulation or LLC or what?Label as a low?
Link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Sub-Tropical Depression being ignored in the Atlantic folks?? Say it ain't so lol.

2059. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Can someone please look at this link??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation? Maybe mid-level. This tropical wave looks really good to me right now. Shouldn't it at least be an invest? Just IMO.


It's an illusion caused by that burst of convection expanding towards the south. This wave isn't organized enough to be labeled an invest.
I can foretell a few days down the road from now that this thing becomes an invest or possibly even a TD and this blog will be an anthill. I will have an overflow blog if needed. Which tells me I haven't updated in a while. Perhaps I should do it tomorrow.
2061. Levi32
Quoting reedzone:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Sub-Tropical Depression being ignored in the Atlantic folks?? Say it ain't so lol.



Not yet. It needs that convection to stick around for a while to warm its core. It's running out of time as it moves over colder and colder SSTs. We'll see. It still has frontal features attached to it too.
2062. fsumet
How each El Nino Progressed from last post (Just doing the last 4 El Ninos):

Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2006


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2004


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2002


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 1997



Mid November 2006


Mid November 2004


Mid November 2002


Mid November 1997
How is shear looking ahead of this disturbance?
1965. stormpetrol 11:57 PM GMT on July 05, 2009
Looks like former 94L at least to me could actually be STS right now IMO at least looking at the quikscat.
Quoting reedzone:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Sub-Tropical Depression being ignored in the Atlantic folks?? Say it ain't so lol.



SST's look good ahead of this disturbance. Waters are just warm enough.
2066. Levi32
Quoting tropicfreak:
How is shear looking ahead of this disturbance?


See for yourself:



The shear in a sense is the only reason this wave has a lot of convection. It's all due to upper divergence. This wave is far less than it appears to be.

latest quikscat of former 94L
Better yet, a Tropical Depression in the EPAC is maybe being ignored.
2071. JRRP
desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampagos
image a of 956 pm edt
2068. tropicfreak 8:59 PM CDT on July 05, 2009

Your post just shows up as a red x to me...can you post a link???
Quoting JRRP:
desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampagos


????????????????????????????????
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
2068. tropicfreak 8:59 PM CDT on July 05, 2009

Your post just shows up as a red x to me...can you post a link???


www.wunderground.com/tropical
2079. JRRP
Quoting tropicfreak:


????????????????????????????????

vivo en Santo Domingo
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Crap
2078. tropicfreak 9:07 PM CDT on July 05, 2009

thanks
Quoting JRRP:

vivo en Santo Domingo


You live in Santo Domingo?

Some interesting model tracks for 94E:
desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampagos
-------------
Over at my house we're drinking Fire Moon ale.. with queso at high noon, but my distant cousin's mom just threw a lamp at me.
2084. fsumet
I thought more about your correlation Levi that you can see in the western Atlantic in the Fall. This may be due to strong cold fronts moving further south and east than normal. This also basically ends the hurricane season for the Gulf early as well. So it's not so much a direct correlation with SST, it's more of a function of how El Nino affects the overall climate and the SST in the western Atlantic is a feedback from that effect.
Africa Next Generation Satellite

Does anyone see rotation with the wave just off the coast? Just curious.
vivo en Santo Domingo
-----------
Livin' large this Sunday evening
Quoting AllStar17:
Africa Next Generation Satellite

Does anyone see rotation with the wave just off the coast? Just curious.

has anyone notied the wave in the carrib lol
2088. JRRP
Quoting redwagon:
desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampagos
-------------
Over at my house we're drinking Fire Moon ale.. with queso at high noon, but my distant cousin's mom just threw a lamp at me.

wrong translation
Acemmett90 ---

Yes, it has been a hot topic on the blog tonight.
Anyone out there, like me, that has given MS the boot, is running Ubuntu and cannot wait for all of the checks to get firefox 3.5 look here: Link

Worked for me.
Quoting AllStar17:
Acemmett90 ---

Yes, it has been a hot topic on the blog tonight.

not for long its gonna hit the dr and hati
Quoting JRRP:
desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampagos


Translated (using FreeTranslation.com lol)
since my house the moon is seen outside. ... with some distant and high clouds to the southeastern south the relampagos are seen
2091. Acemmett90

The wave itself is moving west, however
wait ive been working hard the last few days how the heck did we end up at 94L
From my house we can see the moon outside with some clouds high in the distance, at the southeast you can see the lightning.desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampago
Quoting AllStar17:
2091. Acemmett90

The wave itself is moving west, however

oh looked like it was moving north guess my minds playing tricks from boredom lol
Quoting Acemmett90:
wait ive been working hard the last few days how the heck did we end up at 94L


It was a non-tropical area of low pressure in the North Central Atlantic SW of the Azores. NHC still has a floater up on it, if you wanted to check. Could of become Sub-tropical, but was heavily sheared throughout it's life as an invest, thus no development.
the wave heading west its not gonna hit dr
2099. Dar9895
Quoting fsumet:
How each El Nino Progressed from last post (Just doing the last 4 El Ninos):

Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2006


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2004


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 2002


Peak Hurricane Season (Mid September) 1997



Mid November 2006


Mid November 2004


Mid November 2002


Mid November 1997

Very interesting that thing so if the 1997 el nino was the strongest that mean 2009 will be similar to 2002 or perhaps 2006, isn't it.
Quoting AllStar17:
2091. Acemmett90

The wave itself is moving west, however

Looks like we will get some rain here
Quoting stormpetrol:
From my house we can see the moon outside with some clouds high in the distance, at the southeast you can see the lightning.desde mi casa se ve la luna afuera.... con algunas nubes altas y distante al sur sureste se ven los relampago


To be honest my wife translated this for me, she is from Belize.
however unless the carib wave gains more vorctiy i will only watch it with the corner of my eye
I'm curious FSU met, what are your thoughts on this wave in the caribbean?
2104. Dar9895
Quoting AllStar17:


You live in Santo Domingo?

Some interesting model tracks for 94E:

No matter this invest 94, it move away from Mexico and cooler water.
2105. Levi32
Quoting fsumet:
I thought more about your correlation Levi that you can see in the western Atlantic in the Fall. This may be due to strong cold fronts moving further south and east than normal. This also basically ends the hurricane season for the Gulf early as well. So it's not so much a direct correlation with SST, it's more of a function of how El Nino affects the overall climate and the SST in the western Atlantic is a feedback from that effect.


I know, I didn't say it was direct. The water temperature in one ocean can't directly change the temperature of another. Most if not all effects of El Nino are felt strongest in the fall and winter, so that's not a surprise that it shows up more in the late hurricane season.
Quoting Acemmett90:
however unless the carib wave gains more vorctiy i will only watch it with the corner of my eye


It does have a bit of vorticity, but unfavorable shear should limit any development
2107. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Translated (using FreeTranslation.com lol)
since my house the moon is seen outside. ... with some distant and high clouds to the southeastern south the relampagos are seen

thanks.... :P
I know the NHC are the experts, but we have a clear TD or STD in the Atlantic - not labeled. And a very well-defined wave in the caribbean, that IMO, should be coded yellow. I am confused! They are sure being conservative. I know they must have their reasons, though.
2109. Ossqss
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Translated (using FreeTranslation.com lol)
since my house the moon is seen outside. ... with some distant and high clouds to the southeastern south the relampagos are seen


Awesome, can you cut and past it and try it the other way to see if comes out the same in Spanish from English? Just curious and you have a head start :-)
2110. JRRP
Quoting btwntx08:
the wave heading west its not gonna hit dr

the axis is moving west but the strong convecction is moving north
Link
2111. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I know the NHC are the experts, but we have a clear TD or STD in the Atlantic - not labeled. And a very well-defined wave in the caribbean, that IMO, should be coded yellow. I am confused! They are sure being conservative. I know they must have their reasons, though.


The NHC is doing perfectly with the Atlantic systems. Ex-94L is not sub-tropical yet, and the wave in the Caribbean is not near as impressive as it appears to be to everyone. It's not a threat to develop.
Quoting Levi32:


The NHC is doing perfectly with the Atlantic systems. Ex-94L is not sub-tropical yet, and the wave in the Caribbean is not near as impressive as it appears to be to everyone. It's not a threat to develop.

i still recomend watching it
Quoting Levi32:


It's an illusion caused by that burst of convection expanding towards the south. This wave isn't organized enough to be labeled an invest.


Levi, I'm curious of your thoughts - is it not being labeled an invest b/c of shear ahead of it, or b/c of lack of organization with the wave? From the latest NHC discussion, they stated it was a well-defined wave. It seems reminiscent of 93L - one day looks organized, and then maybe the next day it could dissipate! Maybe that is why they are holding back. Just my thoughts!!
2114. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


The NHC is doing perfectly with the Atlantic systems. Ex-94L is not sub-tropical yet, and the wave in the Caribbean is not near as impressive as it appears to be to everyone. It's not a threat to develop.

i agree
the wave is seen well enough but far from seeing some development(primera traduccion)
Geeez, you guys ever heard about this story?
Link
2116. Levi32
Let me try explaining this. Look at the upper winds. There is a TUTT (basically upper trough) positively tilted through the Central Caribbean and extending north of Hispaniola. Look on the east side of this trough near and north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. See the batch of strong wind barbs pointing NE? That is creating upper divergence over the tropical wave that is taking air out of the top of the system. Since air is being taken out of the top air has to rise from the bottom to replace it. The rising air condenses and forms all those thunderstorms that makes it look so menacing. At the same time there is 30-40 knots of shear over the entire central/eastern Caribbean due to the upper trough. Just because a tropical wave has thunderstorms doesn't always mean it is a threat to develop. In this case it is not, at least for the next 2-3 days.
How can you guys say that Hispanola is not going to get rain.Look at it, it is clearly getting closer to shore with convection exploding.
Quoting JRRP:

the axis is moving west but the strong convecction is moving north
Link

read 2093 he agrees as well
Quoting atmoaggie:
Geeez, you guys ever heard about this story?
Link

you have point we have had two storms like 93L i belive that we need to watch this because when we turn our backs on the season we will gets slamed and people are gonna blame it on the nhc even though it was their falt for not paying attention people please have a safe season
ace
The forward speed of the Caribbean wave has slowed considerably IMO.
Quoting Levi32:
Let me try explaining this. Look at the upper winds. There is a TUTT (basically upper trough) positively tilted through the Central Caribbean and extending north of Hispaniola. Look on the east side of this trough near and north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. See the batch of strong wind barbs pointing NE? That is creating upper divergence over the tropical wave that is taking air out of the top of the system. Since air is being taken out of the top air has to rise from the bottom to replace it. The rising air condenses and forms all those thunderstorms that makes it look so menacing. At the same time there is 30-40 knots of shear over the entire central/eastern Caribbean due to the upper trough. Just because a tropical wave has thunderstorms doesn't always mean it is a threat to develop. In this case it is not, at least for the next 2-3 days.


Nice explanation, Levi! I am trying to learn.
Quoting stormpetrol:
The forward speed of the Caribbean wave has slowed considerably IMO.

whats up stompetrol
2123. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Levi, I'm curious of your thoughts - is it not being labeled an invest b/c of shear ahead of it, or b/c of lack of organization with the wave? From the latest NHC discussion, they stated it was a well-defined wave. It seems reminiscent of 93L - one day looks organized, and then maybe the next day it could dissipate! Maybe that is why they are holding back. Just my thoughts!!


They generally label a tropical disturbance an invest if they decide it's an area of interest. The official definition doesn't even say that they label them based on any particular potential for development. A normal tropical wave in the Caribbean doesn't really qualify as an "area of interest" in terms of a tropical disturbance. And no it's not organized primarily due to the shear.

Back later.
2124. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:

read 2093 he agrees as well


wave looks good enough to keep our eyes on it imo might blow up alittle in dmax tonight tooo
Quoting Levi32:
Let me try explaining this. Look at the upper winds. There is a TUTT (basically upper trough) positively tilted through the Central Caribbean and extending north of Hispaniola. Look on the east side of this trough near and north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. See the batch of strong wind barbs pointing NE? That is creating upper divergence over the tropical wave that is taking air out of the top of the system. Since air is being taken out of the top air has to rise from the bottom to replace it. The rising air condenses and forms all those thunderstorms that makes it look so menacing. At the same time there is 30-40 knots of shear over the entire central/eastern Caribbean due to the upper trough. Just because a tropical wave has thunderstorms doesn't always mean it is a threat to develop. In this case it is not, at least for the next 2-3 days.


That is well stated. So, you think development may be possible beyond 72 hrs? You agree that the strong convection is moving north, but the wave itself is moving west. Some of these people persist that the wave is moving north.
allstar those people are fallowing the covection thats why
Quoting Acemmett90:
allstar those people are fallowing the covection thats why


Yeah, the convection is really not associated w/ the wave.
Quoting Levi32:


They generally label a tropical disturbance an invest if they decide it's an area of interest. The official definition doesn't even say that they label them based on any particular potential for development. A normal tropical wave in the Caribbean doesn't really qualify as an "area of interest" in terms of a tropical disturbance. And no it's not organized primarily due to the shear.

Back later.

But isnt that how we start tracking storms in the first place when they develop.So your saying it is not an area of interest like every other tropical wave that passes and sometimes develop BUT it is not an area of interest?Not to watch?
2129. JRRP
Quoting btwntx08:

read 2093 he agrees as well

2116...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Geeez, you guys ever heard about this story?
Link


LOL! That is the point I was trying to make earlier about 93L. This particular wave looks like 93L and 93L didn't develop. So, I am wondering if the NHC is holding back b/c of what happened to 93L.
2131. fsumet
To look at what Levi is talking about go here:
Atlantic CIMSS

You can see the upper level divergence from the TUTT helping vent the wave. You can also see the shear it is heading into as well. It also doesn't have much in the way of concentrated low level vorticity (so no spin). The wave isn't moving north, it is getting sheared off to the north. It will move with the lower level trade winds which are moving west. It is all in that link
Quoting Acemmett90:

whats up stompetrol


Nothing much, how about you, just watching the weather as usual, so hot here, praying for rain , but don't want any storms, anyways I'm checking in for the night, G'Nite all.
Quoting AllStar17:


Yeah, the convection is really not associated w/ the wave.

That's impossible.This has to be associated with the wave or it won't have the sustainability to hold it self with this 30-40knt shear if it was convection to start all by itself.The wave is obviously producing this.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


LOL! That is the point I was trying to make earlier about 93L. This particular wave looks like 93L and 93L didn't develop. So, I am wondering if the NHC is holding back b/c of what happened to 93L.


No, this is not at all related to 93L.
just hopen the season stays quiet but for the blogs sake it hope we get a cat five fish storm lol
Death comes for an MCC:

Quoting fsumet:
To look at what Levi is talking about go here:
Atlantic CIMSS

You can see the upper level divergence from the TUTT helping vent the wave. You can also see the shear it is heading into as well. It also doesn't have much in the way of concentrated low level vorticity (so no spin). The wave isn't moving north, it is getting sheared off to the north. It will move with the lower level trade winds which are moving west. It is all in that link


Thanks FSU met! I think Levi was getting very frustrated trying to explain it to us! LOL!!
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

That's impossible.This has to be associated with the wave or it has sustainability to hold it self with this 30-40knt shear if it was convection to start all by itself.The wave is abviously producing this.

Not abviosly its obviosly lol just messing with you
Quoting JRRP:

2116...

i don't believe that expect that 2-3 days phase at the end
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

That's impossible.This has to be associated with the wave or it has sustainability to hold it self with this 30-40knt shear if it was convection to start all by itself.The wave is abviously producing this.


Read post 2116
Quoting Acemmett90:

Not abviosly its obviosly lol just messing with you

Haha you spelled it wrong too with trying to correct me.Not obviosly its obviously.
Quoting Acemmett90:

you have point we have had two storms like 93L i belive that we need to watch this because when we turn our backs on the season we will gets slamed and people are gonna blame it on the nhc even though it was their falt for not paying attention people please have a safe season
ace


Watch it yes, but say it is a TD or TS and NHC is asleep at the wheel? If they were to call every wave that develops any convection a TS, the term TS loses meaning and the general populace grows complacent.

Not unlike a 70% false alarm rate for nadoes. I can tell ya, the city of Tulsa doesn't scurry in basements at the first alert of a nado warning...and ultimately will wish they had one day.

Why have any serious public announcements (i.e. forecast advisories, etc.) thus alerting the general public over a wave with no future? No good reason I can come up with. Until the threat is there for a system to have the potential to actually cause any damage, simply labeling it an invest and watching it further is plenty of action on it.
Quoting AllStar17:


Read post 2116

WOW people
(joker voice)"why so desperate"
screw the wish casters lol
it hate this keybord lol
I see both Levi and FSUmet's points about the Caribbean wave. However, I do think this wave will be something to watch over the next few days. Tropical waves are not really affected by shear. So, moving through 30-40kts shouldn't kill it. Afterwards, it will be moving into a more favorable environment in the western caribbean, at which time, it will become an invest.

Hopefully it will keep moving west and make its way into the EPAC and form. And not drift NW into the GOMEX.
Do not worry, everybody,
I am SURE storms will come....and the more you hope and hope the longer it will take for one to form. We will probably see Ana and maybe even Bill by the end of July. Conditions are forecast by shear models to become increasingly favorable across the basin over the next few weeks, so I am sure storms will come.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Watch it yes, but say it is a TD or TS and NHC is asleep at the wheel? If they were to call every wave that develops any convection a TS, the term TS loses meaning and the general populace grows complacent.

Not unlike a 70% false alarm rate for nadoes. I can tell ya, the city of Tulsa doesn't scurry in basements at the first alert of a nado warning...and ultimately will wish they had one day.

Why have any serious public announcements (i.e. forecast advisories, etc.) thus alerting the general public over a wave with no future? No good reason I can come up with. Until the threat is there for a system to have the potential to actually cause any damage, simply labeling it an invest and watching it further is plenty of action on it.


Well said
atmoaggie - nowhere near TD or TS status. But, are you saying that it should be labeled an invest at this point? Or not?
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I see both Levi and FSUmet's points about the Caribbean wave. However, I do think this wave will be something to watch over the next few days. Tropical waves are not really affected by shear. So, moving through 30-40kts shouldn't kill it. Afterwards, it will be moving into a more favorable environment in the western caribbean, at which time, it will become an invest.

Hopefully it will keep moving west and make its way into the EPAC and form. And not drift NW into the GOMEX.


Wow, email that to the NHC now! Wait until it actually gets into the WCAR before jumping to conclusions.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
atmoaggie - nowhere near TD or TS status. But, are you saying that it should be labeled an invest at this point? Or not?

it should be shaded yellow
Shear may become favorable over the next three days or so, but after that, it quickly returns due to the approach of a mid- to upper-level trough. I don't think this wave has a chance if it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps it will spawn off Blanca in the East Pacific if 94E doesn't do it first.
2152. beell
Does this look like an Invest?
Link
2153. fsumet
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I see both Levi and FSUmet's points about the Caribbean wave. However, I do think this wave will be something to watch over the next few days. Tropical waves are not really affected by shear. So, moving through 30-40kts shouldn't kill it. Afterwards, it will be moving into a more favorable environment in the western caribbean, at which time, it will become an invest.

Hopefully it will keep moving west and make its way into the EPAC and form. And not drift NW into the GOMEX.


The western Carib has high shear as well until the very far western to northwestern Carib. No, the shear will not kill the wave but it will not allow it to develop. Looking at the winds it should move west and into Central America somewhere near Belize.
Quoting AllStar17:


Wow, email that to the NHC now! Wait until it actually gets into the WCAR before jumping to conclusions.


Just my opinion!! And, no, I am not wishcasting and hoping for a storm. This wave has just been very persistent for a long time and I don't think shear will kill it. By 2-3 days out it will be in more favorable conditions, and I will eat crow if it is not an invest at that point. We will see!!
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I see both Levi and FSUmet's points about the Caribbean wave. However, I do think this wave will be something to watch over the next few days. Tropical waves are not really affected by shear. So, moving through 30-40kts shouldn't kill it. Afterwards, it will be moving into a more favorable environment in the western caribbean, at which time, it will become an invest.

Hopefully it will keep moving west and make its way into the EPAC and form. And not drift NW into the GOMEX.

FIANLLY!You have made my day.Tropical waves don't die out over shear because they keep on going and yes we should keep on watching it because it will be moving into a favorable environment once it gets through the worst.
2156. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I see both Levi and FSUmet's points about the Caribbean wave. However, I do think this wave will be something to watch over the next few days. Tropical waves are not really affected by shear. So, moving through 30-40kts shouldn't kill it. Afterwards, it will be moving into a more favorable environment in the western caribbean, at which time, it will become an invest.

Hopefully it will keep moving west and make its way into the EPAC and form. And not drift NW into the GOMEX.


Well the tropical wave itself is not killed by shear but the thunderstorms can't organize in the face of shear and therefore a surface low can't form. The environment may be a little more favorable in the western Caribbean and southern Bay of Campeche in 2-3 days which is where this is going but we'll have to see. I think it's unlikely but it should be watched in case it tries to pull something.

Quoting StormFreakyisher:

But isnt that how we start tracking storms in the first place when they develop.So your saying it is not an area of interest like every other tropical wave that passes and sometimes develop BUT it is not an area of interest?Not to watch?


Sure all storms start from nothing, but in this situation it is not an organized tropical disturbance. The thunderstorms are not being generated by a warm-core feedback process (warm moist air over the ocean being lifted). They are being caused by divergence aloft. In this light it is just a well-defined tropical wave that right now is not showing signs of development, and likely won't as long as it is under 40kts of shear. The NHC doesn't put an invest on every strong wave they see. Strong waves have a better chance of developing but that doesn't mean they will. They still need a distinct set of conducive atmospheric conditions to develop.

Quoting tennisgirl08:


Thanks FSU met! I think Levi was getting very frustrated trying to explain it to us! LOL!!


Lol...no, I like trying to answer people's questions =) That doesn't mean everybody always pays attention though lol. As long as those thunderstorms last the wave will get hyped but that's ok. I'm just trying to help some people see what is actually going on.
Quoting fsumet:


The western Carib has high shear as well. No, the shear will not kill the wave but it will not allow it to develop. Looking at the winds it should move west into Belize.


Good! Then it will simply then become a problem for the EPAC, not us.
Quoting fsumet:


The western Carib has high shear as well. No, the shear will not kill the wave but it will not allow it to develop. Looking at the winds it should move west and into Central America somewhere near Belize.

Really?Look at the shear map here.
So, after all the points being made we have all come to the same conclusion! The wave should be watched!! LOL!!


latest 10 58 pm edt
Quoting tennisgirl08:
atmoaggie - nowhere near TD or TS status. But, are you saying that it should be labeled an invest at this point? Or not?


Barely... yes. But I reserve the right to revoke my support. 8-)
I'm still waiting for the first person to say its coming to Florida! lol
2163. fsumet
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Good! Then it will simply then become a problem for the EPAC, not us.


I edited what I said about 30 seconds after cause the far western/northwestern Carib does have lower shear. I was looking more central as it should keep moving due west into Belize. However, it has a chance to move into the far southern BOC. At best if we saw anything form in the southern BOC it would last about 5 minutes (exaggeration) before making landfall in Mexico lol
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Good! Then it will simply then become a problem for the EPAC, not us.

That's kinda harsh cause if this goes into Mexico and Belize, mudslides are a big problem there.I don't don't think it would be "good" if it went there.IN MY OPINION, I would let it come to Florida because we don't get mudslides and we are more safe with better protection.I am not saying Belize has bad storm protection but just not as imroved in some places there like here.
2165. Levi32
Quoting fsumet:


I changed what I had in there. The far western/northwestern Carib has lower shear. However, the wave will plow into the Yucatan or Belize and possibly has a chance to move into the far southern BOC. At best if we saw anything form in the southern BOC it would last about 5 minutes (exaggeration) before making landfall in Mexico lol


Lol yeah.

The TUTT might pull out enough to allow lower shear in the western Caribbean but the upper environment will still be less than ideal. We'll see how the wave looks by the time it gets there but I personally think the low-level easterlies screaming through the Caribbean are enough all by themselves to keep this wave from developing.
Shear below 20 knts will allow for tropical systems to develop.And with 5-10knt shear in the Western Carib. will allow us for something to watch in the near future and no that is not high shear.I don't know why you said that fsumet.
Good night
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

That's kinda harsh cause if this goes into Mexico and Belize, mudslides are a big problem there.I don't don't think it would be "good" if it went there.IN MY OPINION, I would let it come to Florida because we don't get mudslides and we are more safe with better protection.I am not saying Belize has bad storm protection but just not as imroved in some places there like here.


Ok, so that was harsh. I wish this wave would go POOF!

Quoting fsumet:


I edited what I said cause the far western/northwestern Carib does have lower shear. However, the wave will plow into the Yucatan or Belize and possibly has a chance to move into the far southern BOC. At best if we saw anything form in the southern BOC it would last about 5 minutes (exaggeration) before making landfall in Mexico lol


I agree!
2169. Levi32
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Shear below 20 knts will allow for tropical systems to develop.And with 5-10knt shear in the Western Carib. will allow us for something to watch in the near future and no that is not high shear.I don't know why you said that fsumet.


Well the reason there's low shear in the NW Caribbean is because the TUTT axis cuts through there. If you think about it, at the very center of a low, or the center of an axis where the wind changes direction sharply, the wind speed has to be near 0. At the axis of an upper trough the wind will be very light near the trough axis, but the upper trough isn't a favorable environment for a tropical disturbance to develop, so really there is no favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean right now. In 2-3 days the TUTT may lift far enough north to allow lighter winds aloft but still less-than-ideal for development. Like I said we'll keep an eye on it but development is unlikely.
2170. beell
gosh, all this talk about the TUTT enhanced activity and the shear and the slightly better short term conditions in the BOC seems familiar.

Make it rain in TX!

Good Night, all.
)
2171. Patrap

Currently Active Tropical Cyclones,RAMMB


Last Updated 13 Minutes Ago
Quoting Acemmett90:
however unless the carib wave gains more vorctiy i will only watch it with the corner of my eye
Hence the reason you thought it was moving north.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I know the NHC are the experts, but we have a clear TD or STD in the Atlantic - not labeled. And a very well-defined wave in the caribbean, that IMO, should be coded yellow. I am confused! They are sure being conservative. I know they must have their reasons, though.
They are not being conservative, you are wishcasting based on a picture you see. In both cases, the facts are that neither a name/classification nor a color code are warranted.
Well good night all and to those Floridians who come on here waiting for a storm to develop.Im Floridian but will take whatever comes.Don't worry shear models are projected to drop a bunch in the next few weeks.Enjoy!
2175. scott39
Ive seen the nhc put an invest on worst looking developing garbage then this one in the carrb.They do not want to lose thier credibility any more than they have,after the 93L fizzle!


a little pop up

25.6n/39.9w
2177. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Ive seen the nhc put an invest on worst looking developing garbage then this one in the carrb.They do not want to lose thier credibility any more than they have,after the 93L fizzle!


No I have not seen an invest put on any system like this. You're going on looks alone and ignoring the actual anatomy of the system.
2178. Patrap
Hah,..those swilly Bloggers,they hav no Idea that the NHC is on my Side now.

Team WUBA cant find a INvest no where.

Swilly Bloggers.

Proceed wit da plan.

Quoting scott39:
Ive seen the nhc put an invest on worst looking developing garbage then this one in the carrb.They do not want to lose thier credibility any more than they have,after the 93L fizzle!
Yeah, cause an ULL did not move the way some of the models predicted, the NHC lost credibility...NOT ! Not all numbered invests develop, as a matter of fact, the percentages are higher that dont. The NHC has not lost, and will not lose credibility except by some of the people on here who feel they know more and can do a better job of forcasting.
2180. scott39
levi please explain to me in layman terms, why i am being fooled by my eyes.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a little pop up

25.6n/39.9w
Looks more like Casper the Ghost waving at us.
Quoting Levi32:


No I have not seen an invest put on any system like this. You're going on looks alone and ignoring the actual anatomy of the system.
People, please have some sense and listen to Levi. He has been repeating himself for at least three pages now explaining in simple terms WHY the tropical wave is not named, an invest, and not developing.

Please do a little research and you will see the large numbers of t-waves that transverse the Atlantic in every season and the majority never become anything more that what they are, a t-wave, regardless of the amount of awe-inspiring convection they may contain.
2183. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
levi please explain to me in layman terms, why i am being fooled by my eyes.


My post #2116:

Quoting Levi32:
Let me try explaining this. Look at the upper winds. There is a TUTT (basically upper trough) positively tilted through the Central Caribbean and extending north of Hispaniola. Look on the east side of this trough near and north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. See the batch of strong wind barbs pointing NE? That is creating upper divergence over the tropical wave that is taking air out of the top of the system. Since air is being taken out of the top air has to rise from the bottom to replace it. The rising air condenses and forms all those thunderstorms that makes it look so menacing. At the same time there is 30-40 knots of shear over the entire central/eastern Caribbean due to the upper trough. Just because a tropical wave has thunderstorms doesn't always mean it is a threat to develop. In this case it is not, at least for the next 2-3 days.


To add to that, even though the divergence aloft is enhancing thunderstorm activity, the shear that accompanies it is causing t-storms to collapse, come back in another area, collapse, pop up again, etc...the cycle never ends because the tops of the thunderstorms get blown apart by the shear. You need sustained convection that is allowed to grow, which requires light winds aloft (light wind shear). Once you get that, you can get a surface low and a more organized system. Right now this tropical wave is not organized. It is a well-defined wave but until it gets into a more favorable environment aloft that is all it will be, and a rainmaker for Caribbean countries.
Think about it guys. This wave is moving around 30 mph, so even if upper-level conditions were ideal (which they clearly aren't, and like I said earlier, shear is only going to become briefly favorable to marginally favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico starting around 72 hours before it increases again with the approach of another trough), this wave would have a very hard time developing. Fast moving tropical waves have a notorious reputation for failing to significantly organize. In fact...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU AUG 16 2001

...CHANTAL BECOMING A TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR
THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THEIR RESPECTIVE
GOVERNMENTS...EXCEPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND
GUADELOUPE WHICH WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 8 AM AST TOMORROW.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WAS ESTIMATED IN THE VICINITY OF LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR NEAR ST. VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 29 MPH...47 KM/HR...AND A RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...IN A FEW
SQUALLS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CHANTAL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


NNNN


None of these waves are going to have a good shot at tropical cyclogenesis as long as they continue to move that quickly, even if the upper winds are favorable. If the trade winds slacken off some, then they will have a better chance at developing, but until then...
2185. scott39
Hunkerdown i never questioned the nhc ability to forecast. i just said they in so many words were being more concervative.to your comment that some people think they can forcast better than the nhc. well now thats just silly. LOL
2186. Drakoen
Nothing is going to form over the next 10 days. Enjoy your week.
the area to watch for the possiblity of a new invest over the next 36hrs would be the area off the hondurous/nicaruaga border in the SW carib.,almost the same set up as a week ago.....
2188. Patrap
Thank you O' mighty oracle...2186

Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form over the next 10 days. Enjoy your week.
You are just being conservative :)
From the Houston/Galveston NWS earlier discussion....


The last time the high temperature failed to exceed 95 degrees at
iah was June 8th.

And the drought continues. Issued a new dgthgx (drought statement) last night. Many climate and supplemental sites have
received less than 10 percent of the normal rainfall expected
since may 1st. Folks...it is as dry as I have ever seen it here.
2191. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:
Think about it guys. This wave is moving around 30 mph, so even if upper-level conditions were ideal (which they clearly aren't, and like I said earlier, shear is only going to become briefly favorable to marginally favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico starting around 72 hours before it increases again with the approach of another trough), this wave would have a very hard time developing. Fast moving tropical waves have a notorious reputation for failing to significantly organize. In fact...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU AUG 16 2001

...CHANTAL BECOMING A TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR
THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THEIR RESPECTIVE
GOVERNMENTS...EXCEPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND
GUADELOUPE WHICH WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 8 AM AST TOMORROW.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WAS ESTIMATED IN THE VICINITY OF LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR NEAR ST. VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 29 MPH...47 KM/HR...AND A RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...IN A FEW
SQUALLS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CHANTAL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


NNNN


None of these waves are going to have a good shot at tropical cyclogenesis as long as they continue to move that quickly, even if the upper winds are favorable. If the trade winds slacken off some, then they will have a better chance at developing, but until then...


Exactly, that's why I don't give this wave much of a chance. Easterly trades are very strong right now screaming through the Caribbean and that ruins surface convergence. I don't see any tropical waves developing in there anytime soon. We would need a system to develop east of the islands first and then move into the Caribbean, but at this time of year that is also unlikely. Tropics south of 20N are shut down for the moment.
Quoting Patrap:
Hah,..those swilly Bloggers,they hav no Idea that the NHC is on my Side now.

Team WUBA cant find a INvest no where.

Swilly Bloggers.

Proceed wit da plan.

Is that Ed Rappaport ?
Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form over the next 10 days. Enjoy your week.


Yeah, I'm not really looking for tropical cyclogenesis until near the end of the month, when the next surge of moisture associated with the upward MJO pulse enters the basin.
Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form over the next 10 days. Enjoy your week.

thats not right to say that i say something will form and its in the carribean right now!
2195. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
the area to watch for the possiblity of a new invest over the next 36hrs would be the area off the hondurous/nicaruaga border in the SW carib.,almost the same set up as a week ago.....


Not really. 93l formed from a mid-level low that moved north from the eastern pacific and interacted with a tropical wave that was much farther north than the current wave near the Nicaraguan coast. It will be in the eastern Pacific within 36 hours where it has better chances to develop.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The only area where I think we could see anything of remote interest over the next week will be off the SE US coast as old fronts get dragged through there. We could get cyclogenesis at the tail-end of those fronts and depending on how things evolve we might see something try to go warm-core.
2196. scott39
Thanks levi i learned something. would you say this wave is toast, or if not what would you give it % wise in next couple of days?
2197. Patrap
.."I gotta tell ya Folks,this Wave is Impressive for early July"..

..Back to you in the Studio.

The Big storm is still yet to come.Don't know when but it's coming."The calm before the storm" applies to this,sorry.Do fireworks play a role in fireworks?No I don't mean does weather play a role in fireworks.I MEANT what I MEANT!LOL!Like so much smoke is emitted in our atmoshphere on 4th of July does it enhance cloud development,rain?Or does it make temperatures cooler with all the smoke or what?
2199. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Thanks levi i learned something. would you say this wave is toast, or if not what would you give it % wise in next couple of days?


Quoting btwntx08:

thats not right to say that i say something will form and its in the carribean right now!


While it is true that perhaps Drak should not have made such an assertion (given that our forecasts 10 days out are still iffy at best), I respectfully disagree that the Caribbean wave is going to develop, at least over the next few days. If it enters the Eastern Pacific, it may find a favorable upper wind environment to take advantage of then, at which point it would not be a surprise at all to see it become a tropical cyclone.

And even if this wave were to enter the Gulf of Mexico, shear only briefly becomes favorable.
2202. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Which wave is everyone bickering about?


You mean you can't figure it out? lol....the one south of Hispaniola.
Nothing is going to happen for another week. Now other story is this.... hot and extremely dry in TX, driest ever seen in most areas of the Gulf coast. Expect a storm to hit TX starting now and on into September. Expect torrential rains. It's a fact when the TX coast burns up a storm will arrive.....ladies and gentlemen sit back in awe and watch it evolve
Quoting Levi32:


Not really. 93l formed from a mid-level low that moved north from the eastern pacific and interacted with a tropical wave that was much farther north than the current wave near the Nicaraguan coast. It will be in the eastern Pacific within 36 hours where it has better chances to develop.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The only area where I think we could see anything of remote interest over the next week will be off the SE US coast as old fronts get dragged through there. We could get cyclogenesis at the tail-end of those fronts and depending on how things evolve we might see something try to go warm-core.

Yeah but the ones that form off the fonts this time of the month move off to the northeast if they develop and become fish storms right?
Quoting StormW:
Which wave is everyone bickering about?


The one about to enter the central Caribbean.
Quoting StormW:
Which wave is everyone bickering about?
this one Link
2208. Patrap
Patrap let me borrow his Voodo stick and I'm telling you all its coming, the Saving Grace of torrential rains will come to us.
2210. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Just came back on.


Just playin.....good evening by the way lol.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Yeah but the ones that form off the fonts this time of the month move off to the northeast if they develop and become fish storms right?


Usually, but not always.

Why are you hoping for a landfall, anyway?
2212. Patrap
Well..when sumthing gets to 90 West and Moving North,..I'll panic then.

Im prepared as could be and have a Good plan always.



2213. Levi32
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Yeah but the ones that form off the fonts this time of the month move off to the northeast if they develop and become fish storms right?


Most of the time yes, but not all the time. And it doesn't have to be a threat to land for it to be worth watching.
Quoting Levi32:


Most of the time yes, but not all the time. And it doesn't have to be a threat to land for it to be worth watching.


This. lol

Look at it this way SF: 94E in the Eastern Pacific is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. It probably isn't going to be a threat to land, but does that mean that it isn't worth watching? Hardly.

I would like, SF, for you to give me one good reason as to why a fish storm doesn't bear watching.
Quoting Levi32:


Most of the time yes, but not all the time. And it doesn't have to be a threat to land for it to be worth watching.

If it is not a threat to land than might as well not watch it, at least for me.Unless it you want to track it and study it or whatever.I leave that up to NHC's job.My job is to TRACK ANYTHING a THREAT to land especially me lol.
2217. Levi32
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

If it is not a threat to land than might as well not watch it, at least for me.Unless it you want to track it and study it or whatever.I leave that up to NHC's job.My job is to TRACK ANYTHING a THREAT to land especially me lol.


That's understandable, but Meteorologists track everything. I enjoy trying to forecast a storm even if it's out in the middle of nowhere. The fascinating aspects of the weather are present everywhere, not just close to the coast.
Here in TX this is what were all waiting for...


Quoting RitaEvac:
Here in TX this is what were all waiting for...




Here's to hoping for it in southeastern Louisiana as well...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Here in TX this is what were all waiting for...



God?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's to hoping for it in southeastern Louisiana as well...

A man shouting for help?
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

A man shouting for help?


...The rain. >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:


...The rain. >_>

I know it's a joke.I know how you feel like when I was begging for rain a month ago with the Florida drought.
Quoting KoritheMan:


While it is true that perhaps Drak should not have made such an assertion (given that our forecasts 10 days out are still iffy at best), I respectfully disagree that the Caribbean wave is going to develop, at least over the next few days. If it enters the Eastern Pacific, it may find a favorable upper wind environment to take advantage of then, at which point it would not be a surprise at all to see it become a tropical cyclone.

And even if this wave were to enter the Gulf of Mexico, shear only briefly becomes favorable.


Agreed, I doubt we'll see development, atleast in the next week, from this system. Or really, anything out there.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Agreed, I doubt we'll see development, atleast in the next week, from this system. Or really, anything out there.


Good evening Cyber.
Seems like the Carribean can't poop out a hurricane.IT'S CONSTIPATED!
2227. Levi32
ECMWF/GFS 8-10 day 500mb comparison. East coast trough and negative NAO remain the central features of the Atlantic long-wave pattern.

Never realized the La Nina of 1988 was so strong:



Never seen anything like that before.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good evening Cyber.


Mornin here lol. Im about to hit the hay! Night all
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing is going to happen for another week. Now other story is this.... hot and extremely dry in TX, driest ever seen in most areas of the Gulf coast. Expect a storm to hit TX starting now and on into September. Expect torrential rains. It's a fact when the TX coast burns up a storm will arrive.....ladies and gentlemen sit back in awe and watch it evolve


what is sad is your right...lol.. the year of Rita we saw a very similar situation here in SeTx.. Hot and dry.. looks like we are fixing to get a break in the weather though... rain possible this week!!!!!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mornin here lol. Im about to hit the hay! Night all


Good night.
Can we just hit the Atlantic pinata and see if a hurricane pops out.Heck no!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mornin here lol. Im about to hit the hay! Night all

Have fun sleeping with the bedbugs unless you really mean your sleeping in a haysack.
I wonder what Dr. Master's post will be about tomorrow??
94E is on its way to be TD 3E
Quoting Tazmanian:
94E is on its way to be TD 3E

sure is hopefully in the am it will be td 3e
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I wonder what Dr. Master's post will be about tomorrow??

You mean today lol.
Ha! Yes, today. Maybe he will post about possibilities for the latter part of July.
94E soon to be TD 3E lol
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Ha! Yes, today. Maybe he will post about possibilities for the latter part of July.


Or the possibility of this wave in the Caribbean developing?
2241. Levi32
By definition that system already is TD 3-E. I have no idea why they're not classifying it yet. If they wait too long it will skip straight to TS. Maybe they won't even name it then...
2242. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
By definition that system already is TD 3-E. I have no idea why they're not classifying it yet. If they wait too long it will skip straight to TS. Maybe they won't even name it then...
The Spin in the Caribbean is way up in the Upper Levels....Good Morning everyone!
2244. scott39
tampa spin what does way up in the upper levels mean?
2245. Levi32
The only thing in the upper levels in the Caribbean is a TUTT that is currently shearing that tropical wave. There is no spin of any kind associated with the wave.
Quoting Levi32:
The only thing in the upper levels in the Caribbean is a TUTT that is currently shearing that tropical wave. There is no spin of any kind associated with the wave.


So this thing could develop? Please, enlighten me, I'm only 18. Don't know much about what they're going to do.
2247. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneJoe:


So this thing could develop? Please, enlighten me, I'm only 18. Don't know much about what they're going to do.


We youngins need to have faith in ourselves =D I'm 17 myself lol. Here this is my posts from earlier explaining what's going on:

Quoting Levi32:
Let me try explaining this. Look at the upper winds. There is a TUTT (basically upper trough) positively tilted through the Central Caribbean and extending north of Hispaniola. Look on the east side of this trough near and north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. See the batch of strong wind barbs pointing NE? That is creating upper divergence over the tropical wave that is taking air out of the top of the system. Since air is being taken out of the top air has to rise from the bottom to replace it. The rising air condenses and forms all those thunderstorms that makes it look so menacing. At the same time there is 30-40 knots of shear over the entire central/eastern Caribbean due to the upper trough. Just because a tropical wave has thunderstorms doesn't always mean it is a threat to develop. In this case it is not, at least for the next 2-3 days.


To add to that, even though the divergence aloft is enhancing thunderstorm activity, the shear that accompanies it is causing t-storms to collapse, come back in another area, collapse, pop up again, etc...the cycle never ends because the tops of the thunderstorms get blown apart by the shear. You need sustained convection that is allowed to grow, which requires light winds aloft (light wind shear). Once you get that, you can get a surface low and a more organized system. Right now this tropical wave is not organized. It is a well-defined wave but until it gets into a more favorable environment aloft that is all it will be, and a rainmaker for Caribbean countries.


Also, easterly trade winds in the Caribbean are very fast right now and that ruins surface convergence, which makes it very hard for tropical waves to amplify. That alone makes me think it won't develop, without even thinking about upper-level conditions. I don't think it's a threat until it gets into the eastern Pacific.

[edit] - here's the link to the upper-level winds I was refering to above.
Personally, living in SE TX, I would much rather have a few days of moderate rain (like 1.5 - 2 inches per day), rather than 2 days of torrential rain. Even with how parched the land is right now, if we just get dumped on, most of it will end up running off. If you get the same amount of rain spread out more or less evenly over a couple of days, it has a better chance to soak in and do some good.
Very well said. Thanks Levi
2250. scott39
Levi,i reread your explanation on this wave in the carrib. you mentioned 2or3 days it could have a more favorable enviroment.Do you expect it to survive to get that chance?
Our little swirl looks good in the eastpac off Mexico. Still see nothing to get excited about in the Atlantic.
2252. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi,i reread your explanation on this wave in the carrib. you mentioned 2or3 days it could have a more favorable enviroment.Do you expect it to survive to get that chance?


Tropical waves don't get killed by shear. The convection associated with them does, but not the wave itself. Upper-level conditions will be slightly more favorable in 2-3 days over the western Caribbean but still less than ideal, and with the strong low-level easterlies I don't think it has much of a chance. After that it will be over central America for a few days before finally emerging in the east Pacific, which is where I think it will develop if it's destined to develop at all.
Looks like the wave in the eastpac has persistent convection and good shape to it. It looks very organized to me.
Quoting Levi32:
The only thing in the upper levels in the Caribbean is a TUTT that is currently shearing that tropical wave. There is no spin of any kind associated with the wave.


You sure your looking in the CAribbean...

Link
Good Monday morning, all! Hey guys, any one of y'all happen to check out the latest version of the GFS 00z model run this morning in full yet? If not, please check it out and give me your two-cents worth in regards to it, ASAP. Thank you very much, :)
2256. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


You sure your looking in the CAribbean...

Link


Positive. The first spin was an illusion caused by a convective burst expanding towards the south. In the last couple frames it is possible the recent MCC is leaving behind a residual mid-level vortex, but that will fade very quickly if that is the case. There is no spin directly associated with the wave.
2257. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good Monday morning, all! Hey guys, any one of y'all happen to check out the latest version of the GFS 00z model run this morning in full yet? If not, please check it out and give me your two-cents worth in regards to it, ASAP. Thank you very much, :)


I see nothing of significance. I still see the low it forms on the tail-end of that front off the Carolinas in a couple days. I've been watching that area for a week now. We'll see how that turns out. We may see something try to go warm-core in that area. Otherwise....the model is empty of trouble =)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing is going to happen for another week. Now other story is this.... hot and extremely dry in TX, driest ever seen in most areas of the Gulf coast. Expect a storm to hit TX starting now and on into September. Expect torrential rains. It's a fact when the TX coast burns up a storm will arrive.....ladies and gentlemen sit back in awe and watch it evolve

where exactly in Texas are you expecting it to arrive? Any thoughts?
Quoting Levi32:


I see nothing of significance. I still see the low it forms on the tail-end of that front off the Carolinas in a couple days. I've been watching that area for a week now. We'll see how that turns out. We may see something try to go warm-core in that area. Otherwise....the model is empty of trouble =)


WHAT? Levi, did you go through the ENTIRE RUN, meaning, from it's begining to it's end?
2260. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


I see nothing of significance. I still see the low it forms on the tail-end of that front off the Carolinas in a couple days. I've been watching that area for a week now. We'll see how that turns out. We may see something try to go warm-core in that area. Otherwise....the model is empty of trouble =)


Yeah WS before you say anything I see the ghost storm in the long-range hours. I'll believe it when I see it. Right now the east Atlantic is not open for business. The GFS has been trying to develop waves out there for weeks now. This is also the first run it shows it on.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah WS before you say anything I see the ghost storm in the long-range hours. I'll believe it when I see it. Right now the east Atlantic is not open for business. The GFS has been trying to develop waves out there for weeks now. This is also the first run it shows it on.


I know, but by then we'll be closer to the Cape Verde Season, so it wouldn't appear totally impossible, or would it, accoring to your expertise, Levi? In addition to that, by then shouldn't the basin be MUCH MORE favorable out there than it is tonight, my friend? :)
2263. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I know, but by then we'll be closer to the Cape Verde Season, so it wouldn't appear totally impossible, or would it, accoring to your expertise, Levi? In addition to that, by then shouldn't the basin be MUCH MORE favorable out there than it is tonight, my friend? :)


No it's not totally impossible. I'm always watching the African waves, but right now it is unlikely that one will develop. We'll see what the 2nd half of July has to bring, but right now I have little faith in the GFS ghost-storms. If it shows it consistently for several model runs and properly moves it down the time-increments, then I'll pay attention. Right now it's too far out.

As far as overall conditions in the basin....the GFS shows TUTTs and upper lows dancing around for most of the forecast period, making upper-level conditions hostile in most areas. The current run shows a worst-case scenario giving the ghost-storm unbelievable ventilation, but again this is just one freak run. It won't be the same on the 6z or 12z runs I guarantee it. Conditions aren't ripe for development for the first half of July. Development chances increase more towards the end of the month when we get the MJO upward-motion pulse back into the Atlantic. Right now all I'm really concerned about is the SE US coast this week.
Quoting Levi32:


No it's not totally impossible. I'm always watching the African waves, but right now it is unlikely that one will develop. We'll see what the 2nd half of July has to bring, but right now I have little faith in the GFS ghost-storms. If it shows it consistently for several model runs and properly moves it down the time-increments, then I'll pay attention. Right now it's too far out.

As far as overall conditions in the basin....the GFS shows TUTTs and upper lows dancing around for most of the forecast period, making upper-level conditions hostile in most areas. The current run shows a worst-case scenario giving the ghost-storm unbelievable ventilation, but again this is just one freak run. It won't be the same on the 6z or 12z runs I guarantee it. Conditions aren't ripe for development for the first half of July. Development chances increase more towards the end of the month when we get the MJO upward-motion pulse back into the Atlantic. Right now all I'm really concerned about is the SE US coast this week.



Fair enough, thanks a million for your torough explination my friend. Hey, now that I've got you to my self on here, I live in South Florida, what might I expect down here come August and September based on what your seeing for teh rest of teh season. I'd really apprecaite your feedback here, since you appear to be unbelivably intellegent when it comes to understabding how tropical meteorology functions, kid. :)
2265. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Fair enough, thanks a million for your torough explination my friend. Hey, now that I've got you to my self on here, I live in South Florida, what might I expect down here come August and September based on what your seeing for teh rest of teh season. I'd really apprecaite your feedback here, since you appear to be unbelivably intellegent when it comes to understabding how tropical meteorology functions, kid. :)


Lol....you flatter me but as I tell everyone I am not a Meteorologist so keep that in mind when digesting my opinions.

Florida is at high risk every single season, no matter how you slice it. It gets hit more than any other state. If we're talking about Andrew-type tracks (long-track storms from the east), I think they're more unlikely this year due to the east coast trough forecast to stay pretty much in the same spot all summer. which I discussed in my hurricane outlook. However that doesn't mean it can't happen if the ridge moves over the east coast for a week allowing a storm to go west. Also, storms forming close by (which is a concern this year for everybody) say near the Bahamas, could have more of a chance of hitting Florida without recurving. Of course storms threatening to hit Florida from the NW Caribbean are a concern as well.

Overall I think Florida is at normal risk this year, which is already pretty high to begin with. As always, be ready =)
Quoting Levi32:


Lol....you flatter me but as I tell everyone I am not a Meteorologist so keep that in mind when digesting my opinions.

Florida is at high risk every single season, no matter how you slice it. It gets hit more than any other state. If we're talking about Andrew-type tracks (long-track storms from the east), I think they're more unlikely this year due to the east coast trough forecast to stay pretty much in the same spot all summer. which I discussed in my hurricane outlook. However that doesn't mean it can't happen if the ridge moves over the east coast for a week allowing a storm to go west. Also, storms forming close by (which is a concern this year for everybody) say near the Bahamas, could have more of a chance of hitting Florida without recurving. Of course storms threatening to hit Florida from the NW Caribbean are a concern as well.

Overall I think Florida is at normal risk this year, which is already pretty high to begin with. As always, be ready =)


Thanks for the wise unput, i'll take it into consideration asap. Lastly, what about Oct. storms for us?
2267. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thanks for the wise unput, i'll take it into consideration asap. Lastly, what about Oct. storms for us?


Pretty much the same as the above. In October storms from the east are even more unlikely due to troughs starting to dig farther south as winter approaches. In October the biggest threat to south Florida is storms recurving out of the NW Caribbean.
But in all seriousness Levi, please do not deny me teh fact that you certainly aren't very smart when it comes to this field of study? :) You're up there with the elite bloggers of this site.
Levi32

What are your thoughts for Texas this year?
Just curious....
2270. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:
But in all seriousness Levi, please do not deny me teh fact that you certainly aren't very smart when it comes to this field of study? :) You're up there with the elite bloggers of this site.


"aren't".........LOL :)

Well I thank you for the compliment =) I am here to learn and hopefully help others to understand some of the things I learn.
Quoting Levi32:


"aren't".........LOL :)

Well I thank you for the compliment =) I am here to learn and hopefully help others to understand some of the things I learn.


ooopppsss, my mistake, wrong choice of words there, my apologies. well, welcome onboard, i'm also looking forward to learning quite a bit from you this season as well. you're a good egg kid, i'm liking you already
2272. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

What are your thoughts for Texas this year?
Just curious....


Well.....Texas is a big question mark lol. I know that's not fun to hear. I'm not expecting a bulk of gulf tracks this year, but the slogan around here is "it only takes one". The big ridge that has been over you guys will block any storms coming if it stays in its current position for the rest of the summer. However, all it takes is a little shift of the high to the north or to the east for a storm to be able to make a run at your coast. If that happens, it could be a problem due to the big high heating up the waters in the western Gulf of Mexico.

In my opinion (again just my opinion) the SE United States coastline is at the most risk this year, but the gulf coast is always at risk as well. We will likely get a few storms in there, just like most years. Hopefully your "high of doom" stands its ground and protects you this summer, but don't hang your hopes on it. Again everyone should be ready every year, no matter what.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


ooopppsss, my mistake, wrong choice of words there, my apologies. well, welcome onboard, i'm also looking forward to learning quite a bit from you this season as well. you're a good egg kid, i'm liking you already
Levi32

yeah, I can't help but think that for as long as we have had it, that we are having it to early in the season and when the peak of hurricane seaon comes it will be tired of our area and move. I mean I can't see a high just sitting on us for months on end...
2275. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

yeah, I can't help but think that for as long as we have had it, that we are having it to early in the season and when the peak of hurricane seaon comes it will be tired of our area and move. I mean I can't see a high just sitting on us for months on end...


Yeah....it has been going through oscillations to the west and east, but generally centered over your area. The CFS keeps it in the same place all summer, but we all know models can be flawed. Also home-brew developments close to the coast wouldn't necessarily be blocked by the ridge, and the chances for those kind of things spinning up within the gulf this year are higher than long-track storms entering the gulf from somewhere else.
Thought this was an interesting website. Not sure who this Jim guy is, but found it interesting that he pinpoints certain cities. Looks like he believes the Caribbean, South Florida, and Northern Gulf Coast will be the hotspots this year. Doesn't mention much of texas!!

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm
Levi32

I guess we can all try to predict the season but considering all the parts that have to come into play, who in the heck knows.....

Thinking of the close to home developements makes me think of Hurricane Humberto. We were under a tropical storm warning and woke up in the middle of the night to a cat 1.....

G'nite all.
Levi,
I'm thinking this year will be rather similar to 2006. That's just my hunch...
tennisgirl08

hmmmmm, we live on the northern texas coast. Close to LA border....
2281. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

I guess we can all try to predict the season but considering all the parts that have to come into play, who in the heck knows.....

Thinking of the close to home developements makes me think of Hurricane Humberto. We were under a tropical storm warning and woke up in the middle of the night to a cat 1.....



Yeah, seasonal forecasts are still long-shots at best, but we can get a general idea of what things "should" be like. Predicting landfalls though is pretty much flipping a coin still. I have the areas that I think are at higher risk this year but like I said everyone should be ready. Anybody can get hit in any pattern, any year.

Hopefully no Humbertos...

Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Levi,
I'm thinking this year will be rather similar to 2006. That's just my hunch...


I would agree with that in terms of the bulk of tracks focused more north and east. It is one of the analog years I talked about in my blog on Friday.
Levi32

actually humberto was pretty cool to watch and all. I just don't want no cat 3 (or 2 like Ike)or higher sneaking up on me without us having time to leave....
Here is an Interesting Statistic...

We are even with 2008 as far as Invests go...
2284. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

actually humberto was pretty cool to watch and all. I just don't want no cat 3 (or 2 like Ike)or higher sneaking up on me without us having time to leave....


Well yeah that's exactly the fear right there. Humberto was no biggy but 24 more hours over water and you would have had a big problem.
2285. Levi32
Well I'm out now. Goodnight all.
wow the nhc is taking to long to name this td 3e.....it is definity already and way it looks they may skip td status to go to ts
Quoting btwntx08:
wow the nhc is taking to long to name this td 3e.....it is definity already and way it looks they may skip td status to go to ts


In their defense, convection waned significantly prior to this recent burst. They want to see persistence and expansion of the convection before they classify it, and I'm sure that with this recent burst (which looks to be expanding and taking on some slight banding features), they will classify it.
...IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT IS STALLED OVER NE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.....

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Lol

Oh phew. It says we're still sposed to get rain. We saw a lot of lightning tonight er last night. Hubby said was heat lightning. Guess he was right. Anyway hang in there SE TX looks like the rains coming. :)
Texas will be hit twice.
One little hurricane and one major.
the seson is not started yet by the end of july things will pick up
Good Morning;

No new blog today but:

Tropical Update

This is the only area models really agree on this week: Near Bermuda



GFS developing the next strong TW and taking it towards the Bahamas by 22 July

troughs in place now but will it to protect florida in three wks there have been at least a couple yrs where its been really wet in florida yet still got hit with a major
Finally, some decent rain moving into the Florida panhandle!
Quoting Weather456:
GFS developing the next strong TW and taking it towards the Bahamas by 22 July


i cant belive im saying this buti agree with weather student the the carib storm is the gfs storm
by the way it has some good out flow
2297. IKE
Quoting Acemmett90:

i cant belive im saying this buti agree with weather student the the carib storm is the gfs storm
by the way it has some good out flow



?
it only looks like crap because its interacting with land
2299. WxLogic
Morning...
2300. IKE
Quoting panamasteve:
Finally, some decent rain moving into the Florida panhandle!


Fixing to pour at my house.......

Good Morning!
415 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AT 20 MPH. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS AND MOVE TOWARD THE TREASURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH STORMS...SOME STRONG...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS.
2302. K8eCane
its been pouring here all morning
Congratulations Ike.
Glad you're finally getting some rain.
2304. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Congratulations Ike.
Glad you're finally getting some rain.


I'm under a severe TS warning...flash flood warning.

Who needs a tropical storm?
yeah Ike! about time for you :)
2306. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:


I'm under a severe TS warning...flash flood warning.

Who needs a tropical storm?


(^.^)/
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM COULD
BE FORMING ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Basically they say this will be a depression by 11

Quoting all4hurricanes:
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM COULD
BE FORMING ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Basically they say this will be a depression by 11



Looks like a depression right now.
GFS forecasting a Cape Verde storm. Maybe we'll get Ana...how many times have we heard that?
2310. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
GFS forecasting a Cape Verde storm. Maybe we'll get Ana...how many times have we heard that?


At least 1,000.

I don't believe the GFS. Definitely not 10+ days out.

I don't see anything in the Atlantic through the 15th of July, which will put this year behind the norm.
we got a new TS but it looks like they for got too update the winds


WHXX01 KMIA 061207
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1207 UTC MON JUL 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA (EP032009) 20090706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090706 0600 090706 1800 090707 0600 090707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 111.2W 17.8N 113.3W 18.5N 115.3W 19.1N 117.2W
BAMD 16.7N 111.2W 17.4N 113.2W 18.0N 115.1W 18.4N 117.1W
BAMM 16.7N 111.2W 17.6N 113.2W 18.2N 115.1W 18.7N 117.0W
LBAR 16.7N 111.2W 17.2N 113.1W 17.9N 115.2W 18.6N 117.4W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090708 0600 090709 0600 090710 0600 090711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 118.9W 20.0N 122.3W 20.1N 125.7W 20.1N 128.9W
BAMD 18.8N 119.1W 19.6N 122.9W 20.9N 126.1W 22.4N 128.7W
BAMM 19.2N 118.8W 20.0N 122.3W 20.8N 125.7W 21.7N 128.5W
LBAR 19.5N 119.4W 21.6N 123.1W 25.0N 126.1W 30.0N 127.1W
SHIP 38KTS 31KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 31KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 111.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 109.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 107.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
its on the navy site 03E.BLANCA
2313. IKE
Blanca is a......no-doubter...a fish.......

2314. IKE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...

AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

Quoting IKE:
Blanca is a......no-doubter...a fish.......



Most EPAC storms are
well the E PAC has now had two name storm one hurricane and one TS and one TD wish would be TD 1E
2317. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Most EPAC storms are


Agree. That's why I don't pay much attention to it.
Blanca is powering up!

2319. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Wouldnt mind having a little blob to track at some point...
Ike,
Is that fish from the 70s? looks groovy.
Thanks in Advance for the update Dr.Masters.
2325. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Is that fish from the 70s? looks groovy.


Partridge Family fish...
2326. A4Guy
Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year?
(this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know).
Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened.
Thanks.
Quoting A4Guy:
Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year?
(this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know).
Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened.
Thanks.
6 named storms in 1992
Quoting A4Guy:
Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year?
(this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know).
Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened.
Thanks.


1914 had 1 tropical storm, and it did hit the
U.S. But many question the reliability of that
so if you want something reliable then it is
1977 with 6 named storms.. However that season
had a cat 1 hurricane landfall in the U.S.
and a cat 5 landfall in mexico.
Blanca is strengthening quickly now.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E
IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.

If she keeps organizing, she may become a hurricane. She already looks better than Andres when he was a hurricane.
2331. Michfan
Finally some damn rain!!! Good morning everyone.
Gustav had an eye-like feature before it blew up. Blanca might do the same.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gustav had an eye-like feature before it blew up. Blanca might do the same.


Looking very good, and looking even better than Andres did when he was a HURRICANE!
2336. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

look at 456's post


I saw it. I don't believe the GFS. Spins up too many ghost storms.
Quoting IKE:


I saw it. I don't believe the GFS. Spins up too many ghost storms.


Idk what happened to the GFS, it used to get them all last year. Hmm.
The 00Z ECMWF has a system coming off of Africa at 120 hrs and then dissipates it at 216 hrs. Would not put too much faith in it, but watch future runs.
It is slower than ice cream out there.


Ex 94L still very defined.
2341. IKE
Quoting RufusBaker:
It is slower than ice cream out there.


There's nothing out there.

It's over me dumping 2-4 inches of rain in the last 1 1/2 hours, making what's left of my yard look like a river flowing to a lake.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Ex 94L still very defined.


But no thunderstorms, so it cant be sub-tropical

Could be a hint of a circulation around 16N/70W, nothing definitive though.
I would update Blanca's winds to 65 mph at the 11 am advisory, looks very good on satellite.

When this convection gets north of the islands...that is when I would look for any development of this feature. It does have a bit of rotation.

2343. Stormpetrol

I dont see any hint of a circulation, there. It would be farther NE.
NEW BLOG
2346. stormno
this season looks like its in the dumper nothing to worry about until the end of july and my information indicates conditions will not change that much in august with the african dust being very troublesome to the storms leaving the african coast.the cape verde season looks like a real dud this year and i would not at all be surprised if dr gray lowerered his forecast to 6 storms for this season.thats the way i see it now for the gulf atlantic and caribbean.so happy blob watching.
2347. stormno
this season looks like its in the dumper nothing to worry about for at least until the end of july and my information indicates conditions will not change that much in august with the african dust being very troublesome to the storms leaving the african coast.the cape verde season looks like a real dud this year and i would not at all be surprised if dr gray lowerered his forecast to 6 storms for this season.thats the way i see it now for the gulf atlantic and caribbean.