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July 2014: Earth's 4th Warmest July on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2014

July 2014 was Earth's fourth warmest July since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA rated July 2014 cooler: the 11th warmest July on record. The July ranking by NOAA broke a streak of two consecutive warmest months on record--May and June of 2014 (they originally ranked April 2014 as tied for warmest April on record, but have since revised it to the second warmest April on record.) Global ocean temperatures during July 2014 were tied with July 2009 for the warmest July on record, and global land temperatures in July 2014 were the 10th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - July period was the 3rd warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 4th or 5th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2014, the 4th warmest July for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record-warm conditions were experienced over portions of five continents, most notably Northern Europe and Northwest Africa. The Central U.S. and Central Russia had much cooler than average temperatures. Overall, 32 countries across every continent except Antarctica had at least one station reporting a record high temperature for July. The United States and the Russian Federation each had several stations that reported record warm temperatures as well as several stations with record cold temperatures for the month. No other countries had stations that reported a record cold July temperature. The period of record varies by station. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in July 2014
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during July 2014, all in China, according to the July 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The total number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the seven months of 2014 is fourteen, which is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 22 such disasters by the end of July, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.


Disaster 1. With a name meaning “thunder of God,” Super Typhoon Rammasun was the strongest typhoon on record to hit China, as measured by observed sea level pressure at landfall (899.2 mb measured at Qizhou Island, about 20 miles east of Hainan Island, according to the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration.) According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Rammasun peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds shortly before hitting China's Hainan Island. Rammasun killed 206 and did $6.5 billion in damage, making it the most expensive weather disaster so far in 2014. Approximately $249 million of the damage was done in the Philippines, making it that nation's 8th most expensive typhoon on record. The image above was taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:35 p.m. local time (0535 UTC) on July 18, 2014. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards.


Disaster 2. Drought conditions worsened across portions of northern and eastern China in July, with nine provinces enduring some of their lowest rain totals since 1961. Among the worst-hit areas were Shandong, Shaanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia, where the lack of rainfall has caused severe damage to crops and limited the availability of drinking water. In this photo, we see a farmer standing in dried and cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Zhifang Reservoir on July 29, 2014 in Dengfeng, China. Photo credit: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.


Disaster 3. Torrential monsoon rains over southern China July 13 - 18, 2014, killed 66 people and did $1.25 billion in damage. In this photo, a bridge in Fenghuang Ancient Town is submerged by flood waters on July 15, 2014 in Jishou, China. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.

An El Niño Watch continues
July 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures were near average in late July and the first half of August in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months for an El Niño event to be declared. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, but in early August dropped their odds of a fall El Niño from 80% to 65%.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest July extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during July was the 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The Northern Sea Route (also known as the Northeast Passage)--the shipping lane along the north coast of Russia in Arctic waters--was open by mid-August, according to ice edge analyses by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. The Northwest Passage through the Arctic waters of Canada was ice-choked, and will likely stay closed in 2014. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. The Northeast Passage opened to ice-free navigation for the first time in recorded history in 2005, with the Northwest Passage following suit during the summer of 2007. Both passages have been open multiple summers since then, as long-term melting of the ice has continued. However, this summer's weather in the Arctic has featured winds favorable for not letting sea ice drift out through Fram Strait, and we have seen the total volume of sea sea as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model pull back from the record low set in 2012. It appears that some of the 2nd-year ice that survived the summer of 2013 will also survive the summer of 2014, so the ice pack is armoring itself a bit going into 2015 with a modest amount of multi-year ice compared to what we went into 2012 with (2012 set the record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent.)

Quiet in the tropics
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation that has become less defined since Sunday, and heavy thunderstorm activity is almost entirely lacking due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by a very dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 27°C. The Monday morning run of one of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, did show some weak development of the wave by late in the week, with the wave arriving in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low. Development odds will rise a little as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week, when ocean temperatures will be warmer and the atmosphere a little moister. In their 2 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. BayFog:


I see this and other beautiful maps from the GFs and other models...what's the site where these come from?
Tropical Tidbits
This site was created by Levi, a blogger on here.
Quoting 500. BayFog:


I see this and other beautiful maps from the GFs and other models...what's the site where these come from?
Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits...a well respected and knowledgeable blogger on here. Ask him weather related questions and he'll give you a good reply.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS looking really interesting for the CATL wave




Nothing even remotely interesting there moves waves into 300kts of shear into the Caribbean. As you stated something has to give eventually lets hope.
nice looking tropical storm
Quoting 503. hurricane23:



Nothing even remotely interesting there moves waves into 300kts of shear into the Caribbean. As you stated something has to give eventually lets hope.


Always a pleasure to read your posts Adrian...

GFS 00z shows shear lifting out:



Another issue though, is the lack of focus of the MJO in the Caribbean with all of the energy in the EPAC the Caribbean and GOM look fairly dry causing a strong AOI to weaken.

Quoting 459. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The MJO is in the Indian Ocean headed eastward. If you deconstruct each component that make up the 200mb VP anomalies, you'll see that the standard RMM MJO (this) is just keying in on the strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave progressing across our region.




Couldn't have said it better myself. The low frequency (i.e. acting as if on longer timescales, w/ slower propagation or movement of the Eq. wave of interest) CCKW being enhanced by the relatively favorable background "El Nino-like" state of the Pacific & recent passage of an upward MJO pulse has "prepared" the atmosphere to respond more effectively to & take more advantage of the convective triggering within the CCKW, thus giving the overall & false impression of MJO retrogression. This has created a favorable set of circumstances in which convection & MCSs associated w/ the Equatorially trapped CCKW is enhanced, & considering that because convection is typically most prevalent within & in the wake of an Eq. Wave axis & latent heating disturbs the natural & idealistic structure of Equatorial Waves, convection is the predominant & defining characteristic that disassociates the theory created by Matsuno (1966) for dry "equatorial-trapped" motions via Eq. Waves on equatorial beta plane & actual observations. (Beta plane is essentially a linear approximation of the Coriolis parameter (or Coriolis Force, pic your favorite) This is considered acceptable given that Coriolis forcing near the equator is relatively minimal @ best anyway. However, the relatively little Coriolis forcing near Equator is important when it comes to CCKW dynamics because the CCKW resides near the Equator simply to balance out the opposing forces including approximately equivalent Coriolis forcing juxtaposed symmetrically on either side of the equatorial region & gravity, thus the wave is considered to be in geostrophic balance. (Reminiscent to how winds balancing out Coriolis & pressure forces tend to follow along the isobars (lines of equal pressure) around storm systems in the mid-latitudes.) ,where in the Kelvin Wave moves @ the Shallow Gravity Wave Speed of gH^1/2 (Gravitational Acceleration=G & H is depth of a given fluid). Although the CCKW makes up a considerable amount of variance of the overall cloudiness, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and upper lvl (200mb)/lower lvl winds of MJO (850mb->outside the PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer), where the forces of friction slow wind speeds & alter it's direction, consequently lowering its inertia in the process, are considered "negligible",) it's the CCKW behavior that is naturally more evident within the convectively active cell of the MJO, not necessarily the MJO itself, which is causing the MJO to appear to move rather erratically on VPM/RMM diagrams.

There are many instances of this MJO retrogression occurring in the MJO archives going back to 1974, & a great recent example of this erratic MJO behavior is noted in July, when it appeared on the VPM/RMM diagrams that the MJO couldn't seem to find a way out of the Pacific. In reality, it was not the MJO causing this seemingly erratic behavior to transpire, but the presence of two back-back Equatorial Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves which like the current CCKW, were enhanced by a favorable background environment that allow it to cause significant "noise" to appear on the MJO diagrams...

Notice in the side-by-side comparison of the Hovmoller diagram for 200mb (hpa) Velocity Potential associated with the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave & VPM MJO diagram, how two back-back phases of the convectively enhanced phase of the CCKW (in blue) moved across the region generally between 120E-120W, which corresponds to MJO phases 4-7, (Maritime Continent & Pacific), thus we can conclude these two CCKWs invigorated by an already conducive El Nino-like state over Pacific are what kept MJO over the Pacific last July, not the MJO itself...
Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.

Quoting Drakoen:


Always a pleasure to read your posts Adrian...

GFS 00z shows shear lifting out:



Another issue though, is the lack of focus of the MJO in the Caribbean with all of the energy in the EPAC the Caribbean and GOM look fairly dry causing a strong AOI to weaken.



Yea..shear,dry air,sal pick one. Not even with the strongest of mjo's will get this season going. CCKW possibly sparks another sheared TS
00Z GFS has our AOI as a weak 1006mb low off the Nicaraguan coast at 168hrs

00Z CMC/GEM still running now at 42hrs

Awaiting more data

510. IDTH
Quoting 507. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.



Is that bigger than Sandy!? If that panned out the blog would blow up!

Quoting 507. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.


Westerly shear too, from the looks of it. Yikes.
Quoting hurricane23:


Yea..shear,dry air,sal pick one. Not even with the strongest of mjo's will get this season going. CCKW possibly sparks another sheared TS

Bertha was in same conditions if not worse it it was able to spit out hurricane

With shear moving out help from MJO and CCKW to dampen dry air and to wash some SAL it just might get lucky
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


How do you figure. Even with low shear and good SST's, trade winds have ripped everything. Only convection that persisted was ex94L and that was for a ten hour period and then it died under low shear and high SST's. Trade winds dominate. A moderate to strong TS may be able to navigate to the W. Caribbean or Gulf, but dry air and SAL in the MDR is stopping that cold.
The Caribbean is not shut down because he wishes it's not shut down. He hopes it's not shut down. Objectively, he has been predicting a storm to form in the next seven days...since June! That's two and a half months of being dead wrong.




big tropical storm in size and its time to eat a blueberry muffins

Quoting 513. sar2401:

The Caribbean is not shut down because he wishes it's not shut down. He hopes it's not shut down. Objectively, he has been predicting a storm to form in the next seven days...since June! That's two and a half months of being dead wrong.
Take it from me, then. I haven't seen anything suggesting the Caribbean is shut down. I definitely wouldn't expect cyclogenesis to occur in the eastern or central Caribbean from anything... but the western Caribbean can still instigate cyclone development in El Nino years.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
00Z GFS has our AOI as a weak 1006mb low off the Nicaraguan coast at 168hrs

00Z CMC/GEM still running now at 42hrs

Awaiting more data


GFS weakens it as it moves on shore

CMC/GEM so far similar to 18Z run slightly stronger and slightly further W at 72hrs
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Why don't you ask her and not me. It has something to do with the El Nino predictions for 2012 that never materialized and she comparing this year to that year.
You were the one agreeing with her, not me.
518. IDTH
Quoting 507. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.



It looks like if it were in the gulf it would make landfall on the whole coast, LOL glad that's not the case. This would honestly be the most interesting thing i have seen in the short time that I have tracked the tropics if it panned out, it's freaking huge!!!
Quoting 501. Drakoen:

Tropical Tidbits
This site was created by Levi, a blogger on here.


Would be really cool if this blogosphere ponied up one day to purchase the ECMWF data for him for a couple years. He really has done a great job with his maps.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.


Maybe but I think it just may not be as large
According to the same model it should be too much of a problem same hr

Quoting KoritheMan:

Take it from me, then. I haven't seen anything suggesting the Caribbean is shut down. I definitely wouldn't expect cyclogenesis to occur in the eastern or central Caribbean from anything... but the western Caribbean can still instigate cyclone development in El Nino years.
Of course it can. I think the most likely place for cyclogenesis over the next month is the western Caribbean or BOC. The most unlikely thing over the next month is anything from the MDR bigger than a TW running the gauntlet into the western Caribbean. That was my point.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Would be really cool if this blogosphere ponied up one day to purchase the ECMWF data for him for a couple years. He really has done a great job with his maps.
How much does it cost? I'll start the ball rolling with $25.
Quoting 507. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow from the next system might increase the wind shear in the GOM and Western Caribbean. Just look at the large size of this thing on IR simulated grid.




That looks close to the size of Typhoon Tip, lol.
00Z CMC/GEM so far slightly weaker further N slightly
Quoting 522. sar2401:

How much does it cost? I'll start the ball rolling with $25.


I have no idea. Not sure it is as easy to get as stuff from Allison House. I'll start looking around. Maybe some other in the know could too. I'll match your $25.
Re-post for you guys/gals' enjoyment:

Quoting 94. Astrometeor:

Checking in from Roanoke, Virginia! I'll arrive in Camp Hill, PA tomorrow evening.

Hopefully I can get my mother to upload the pictures I took while she was driving, there was an EPIC thunderstorm over Bristol, VA! Massive overshooting top, low base, shelf cloud, and it cast a shadow plus the sun was setting so there was oranges and reds and pinks contrasted with whites and blues! So beautiful.
527. IDTH
Quoting 515. KoritheMan:


Take it from me, then. I haven't seen anything suggesting the Caribbean is shut down. I definitely wouldn't expect cyclogenesis to occur in the eastern or central Caribbean from anything... but the western Caribbean can still instigate cyclone development in El Nino years.


It only takes one to get in the right environment to make a bad hurricane season, If something made it to the western Caribbean at the right time for development and developed, it would not be good at all especially with the extremely warm waters there. Bad things can happen like that in an EL Nino year and Andrew proved that.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
00Z CMC/GEM so far slightly weaker further N slightly


It gets ugly.
Quoting 521. sar2401:

Of course it can. I think the most likely place for cyclogenesis over the next month is the western Caribbean or BOC. The most unlikely thing over the next month is anything from the MDR bigger than a TW running the gauntlet into the western Caribbean. That was my point.


Point was well taken on this end.
Regaining hurricane status is going to be difficult:



The arc clouds streaming away from the center and the significantly warmer cloud tops suggests dry air entrainment in the southern quadrant.
Not sure I am reading this right...But looks like it could be six figures...May be out of the league of our $50 start. They think pretty dang highly of Corinne.
Quoting 527. IDTH:


It only takes one to get in the right environment to make a bad hurricane season, If something made it to the western Caribbean at the right time for development and developed, it would not be good at all especially with the extremely warm waters there. Bad things can happen like that in an EL Nino year and Andrew proved that.


In the event we do end up actually getting a major hurricane, it will either be in the Bahamas/Bermuda region, or in the Gulf of Mexico.
Actually CMC/GEM still creates a hurricane from the system and goes through the Florida straits into the GOM
Eventual landfall into NOLA area
As a strong 964mb Hurricane
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Actually CMC/GEM still creates a hurricane from the system and goes through the Florida straits into the GOM
Eventual landfall into NOLA area
As a strong 964mb Hurricane


yep, ugly. how fast is 104.2k? in category too?
535. SLU
Last image

Quoting 533. wunderkidcayman:

Actually CMC/GEM still creates a hurricane from the system and goes through the Florida straits into the GOM
Eventual landfall into NOLA area
As a strong 964mb Hurricane


Oh god, that's a Category 3 equivalent almost. Too bad it's not happening.

But it being in Louisiana would save money on gas and time. :P
Quoting 536. wunderkidcayman:

Last image




Kori just had a heart attack.
This should excite some people

Quoting 537. hurricanes2018:


I am starting to see more rain here
I just had to come back and post this..but the 00z Navgem has come more west and not so much an out to sea notion in this run and 2 more potential players..



It would be a huge stretch for me to put much stock in the Canadian. Only a slight step above the NAM imo...Which we all know has no business trying to forecast tropical systems.

GFS has a slightly building system making a bee line for Jamaica/Caymans and then abruptly dives it S and kills it as it heads for Nicaragua. Now that's interesting.
Quoting ncstorm:
I just had to come back and post this..but the 00z Navgem has come more west and not so much an out to sea notion in this run and 2 more potential players..





looks a lot like the early part of the CMC run.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh god, that's a Category 3 equivalent almost. Too bad it's not happening.

But it being in Louisiana would save money on gas and time. :P

If this was to happen with ya'll ignoring it ya'll screwed

That all I have to say about that
All it took was a look at the CMC shear forecast to realize that run made no sense. The system heads right into the TUTT but still, somehow, manages to strengthen around the Greater Antilles as it heads towards the Florida straits.

Quoting 544. AtHomeInTX:



looks a lot like the early part of the CMC run.


the GEM models..possibly blowing the reliable models out of the water..maybe?
Quoting StormJunkie:
It would be a huge stretch for me to put much stock in the Canadian. Only a slight step above the NAM imo...Which we all know has no business trying to forecast tropical systems.

GFS has a slightly building system making a bee line for Jamaica/Caymans and then abruptly dives it S and kills it as it heads for Nicaragua. Now that's interesting.


Euro did practically the same thing last nights run. but more in a straight line.
Quoting 543. StormJunkie:

It would be a huge stretch for me to put much stock in the Canadian. Only a slight step above the NAM imo...Which we all know has no business trying to forecast tropical systems.

GFS has a slightly building system making a bee line for Jamaica/Caymans and then abruptly dives it S and kills it as it heads for Nicaragua. Now that's interesting.


NAVGEM is worse than the CMC, I think. I don't have any stats on that, but considering how often I do forecasts, that certainly seems to be the case. Either way, they both suck.
Quoting 549. KoritheMan:



NAVGEM is worse than the CMC, I think. I don't have any stats on that, but considering how often I do forecasts, that certainly seems to be the case. Either way, they both suck.


the NHC went with the Navgem for Bertha..I think it has gotten its props this year..
The only thing I think is important to take away from the propensity to ignite the western Atlantic with activity over the next 7 - 10 days in much of the global models is that, while tropical cyclogenesis may not occur, the models are definitely latching into an increase in moisture for the region. This would be coincident with El Nino years, where the majority of cyclone development occurs outside the MDR.
Quoting ncstorm:



the GEM models..possibly blowing the reliable models out of the water..maybe?


They could be. aint no telling yet. be interesting to see if they all start coming together.
I hear Dr M mention the "Big Three" for development and forecasting...I've got two; what's the third. ECMWF, GFS, and....Ukmet? Not the FIM, Not the NAVGEM, not the CMC; and most definitely not the Never A Model NAM.
00Z NAVGEM
Has move a ton further W and S now takes it into the Caribbean similar to the CMC/GEM
Quoting 548. AtHomeInTX:



Euro did practically the same thing last nights run. but more in a straight line.


Insert Occam's Razor...
Quoting 550. ncstorm:



the NHC went with the Navgem for Bertha..I think it has gotten its props this year..


Every now and then both models will spit out a credible solution. But suckiness and good forecasts aren't mutually exclusive. Even JFV can make an accurate prediction every once in awhile. :)
Quoting 552. AtHomeInTX:



They could be. aint no telling yet. be interesting to see if they all start coming together.


People put too much stock in the operational runs and think its the end to all but the ensembles also bear some truth in what may come to light and they all with the exception of the Euro have been showing some type of disturbance traversing through or near the caribbean..I hate to be all clique in saying this but time will tell and it looks sooner than later..
We in the tropical zones, have a propensity to lean towards any model that shows what we want it to show...and at the same time dismiss those that don't. Regardless of their track record and standing in the community.
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:



Every now and then both models will spit out a credible solution. But suckiness and good forecasts aren't mutually exclusive. Even JFV can make an accurate prediction every once in awhile. :)


when I see JFV on this blog I know its serious..LOL
Quoting ncstorm:


People put too much stock in the operational runs and think its the end to all but the ensembles also bear some truth in what may come to light and they all with the exception of the Euro have been showing some type of disturbance traversing through or near the caribbean..I hate to be all clique in saying this but time will tell and it looks sooner than later..


yeah, been following the ensembles a lot lately. They do seem to be getting active.
Quoting 553. StormJunkie:

I hear Dr M mention the "Big Three" for development and forecasting...I've got two; what's the third. ECMWF, GFS, and....Ukmet? Not the FIM, Not the NAVGEM, not the CMC; and most definitely not the Never A Model NAM.


SJ, you and I have had this discussion but the GFS has been horrible this year too along with the Euro..GFS did a number on Arthur and the Euro didnt even develop Bertha..

you cant call any of them reliable..
Quoting 558. StormJunkie:

We in the tropical zones, have a propensity to lean towards any model that shows what we want it to show...and at the same time dismiss those that don't. Regardless of their track record and standing in the community.


It's something I've had to work very hard to eliminate. I take my forecasts seriously, even if I'm not _currently_ a meteorologist. But you have to.
Quoting StormJunkie:
We in the tropical zones, have a propensity to lean towards any model that shows what we want it to show...and at the same time dismiss those that don't. Regardless of their track record and standing in the community.


The last thing I want is what the CMC shows. But I watch them all. and discuss them.
Fact of the matter is people models have indeed picked up on Atlantic basin development

GFS + ensembles ( show it somewhat(weak 1006mb low in the W Carib))
CMC/GEM + ensemble
NOGAPS/NAVGEM
UKMET
EURO (show it somewhat ( big vort Max that at end of run ends up off Hon/Nic))
FIM+FIM family members
NAM ( shows increase in moisture at the end of run over E Carib(does not show tropical development per say) (NAM is not a tropical models either way )
Quoting 561. ncstorm:



SJ, you and I have had this discussion but the GFS has been horrible this year too along with the Euro..GFS did a number on Arthur and the Euro didnt even develop Bertha..

you cant call any of them reliable..


Bertha barely had a closed circulation for nearly its entire life; even when it was a hurricane, it had an >995 mb central pressure (at times even going above 1000, which is literally the first time I've ever seen that except with maybe Danny in 2003) and only a very localized fetch of westerly winds.

The Euro generally misses cyclogenesis of weak systems with little to no chance of significant strengthening. That's what Bertha was. You cannot rightfully consider that a flop.
Quoting 560. AtHomeInTX:



yeah, been following the ensembles a lot lately. They do seem to be getting active.


yes, will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro ensembles will still latch on the GOM setup..

I got work at 7am so I'm really turning in this time..talk to you all tomorrow..
Quoting 563. AtHomeInTX:



The last thing I want is what the CMC shows. But I watch them all. and discuss them.


I think he meant in either direction, tbh.

I want a hurricane, because I want to chase.

You don't want a hurricane anywhere.

In either scenario there's the potential for bias if we don't watch it. :)
Quoting ncstorm:


yes, will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro ensembles will still latch on the GOM setup..

I got work at 7am so I'm really turning in this time..talk to you all tomorrow..


night nc :)
Quoting 561. ncstorm:



SJ, you and I have had this discussion but the GFS has been horrible this year too along with the Euro..GFS did a number on Arthur and the Euro didnt even develop Bertha..

you cant call any of them reliable..


Did they do better than the others? Further out in time? I'll speak for the GFS...It had an intensifying storm moving up the E coast several days out for Arthur; landfall from Charleston to OBX, but mostly OBX. Bertha, while still in the Atl; it had moving though/near the island as it traversed a course to between the OBX and Bermuda.

At this point in our development of long range forecasting; that's not half bad imo.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Fact of the matter is people models have indeed picked up on Atlantic basin development

GFS ensembles ( show it somewhat(weak 1006mb low in the W Carib))
CMC/GEM ensemble
NOGAPS/NAVGEM
UKMET
EURO (show it somewhat ( big vort Max that at end of run ends up off Hon/Nic))
FIM FIM family members
NAM ( shows increase in moisture at the end of run over E Carib(does not show tropical development per say) (NAM is not a tropical models either way )


I mean they may not show the exact thing but the fact that all show some sort of tropical organisation in some way or another gives us a reason to believe something might happen
Quoting 565. KoritheMan:



Bertha barely had a closed circulation for nearly its entire life; even when it was a hurricane, it had an >995 mb central pressure (at times even going above 1000, which is literally the first time I've ever seen that except with maybe Danny in 2003) and only a very localized fetch of westerly winds.

The Euro generally misses cyclogenesis of weak systems with little to no chance of significant strengthening. That's what Bertha was. You cannot rightfully consider that a flop.


it was a flop..if it didn't develop it then it missed the prediction..
Quoting StormJunkie:
I hear Dr M mention the "Big Three" for development and forecasting...I've got two; what's the third. ECMWF, GFS, and....Ukmet? Not the FIM, Not the NAVGEM, not the CMC; and most definitely not the Never A Model NAM.
Yes, UKMET, but also the CMC. Those are the Big Four. If they are all on board, then I pay attention. The NAVGEN is a joke in terms of the tropics. It's the NOGAPS with lipstick, but it still can't manage a better than 40% predictive rate.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think he meant in either direction, tbh.

I want a hurricane, because I want to chase.

You don't want a hurricane anywhere.

In either scenario there's the potential for bias if we don't watch it. :)


Oh. I was just saying I watch em all. Doesn't matter what I'd want it to show. just seeing what they do show. lol. I didn't get my nap today and am probably rambling.
I'll say one thing: the models moistening up the western Atlantic region in as little as 7 days is enough to motivate me to work an extra day next week to add to my ongoing cumulative hurricane chase fund.

We may not get any cyclones out of this pattern from these two westward-moving tropical waves, but I'm not willing to take a chance. Especially with some of the GFS ensembles on board.

No sir.
Quoting 571. ncstorm:



it was a flop..if it didn't develop it then it missed the prediction..


If you understand the type of system, run to run consistency, and comparison runs of the majors...Very seldom do they "flop" they may latch on too early, they may miss a point here or there, they may have to work with a weak system...But if you take them collectively for what they are...They can provide a significant look at the reasonable outcomes.
well the GFS ensembles tightly took a track much like the CMC then split at the end.

Quoting 570. wunderkidcayman:



I mean they may not show the exact thing but the fact that all show some sort of tropical organisation in some way or another gives us a reason to believe something might happen


But the big kids...GFS and ECMWF show sloppy systems just trying to survive in hostile conditions. They have earned their weighted average.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Did they do better than the others? Further out in time? I'll speak for the GFS...It had an intensifying storm moving up the E coast several days out for Arthur; landfall from Charleston to OBX, but mostly OBX. Bertha, while still in the Atl; it had moving though/near the island as it traversed a course to between the OBX and Bermuda.

At this point in our development of long range forecasting; that's not half bad imo.
It also kept it offshore and on Arthur's weak side for the whole time near Florida while some were shouting for TS warnings to be hoisted for the Florida coast. As usual, most models do poorly without a decent low to work with. The GFS did an outstanding job on track and the HWRF did an outstanding job on intensity. Given the state of models today, either or both may be crap on the next storm. That doesn't mean they're useless.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll say one thing: the models moistening up the western Atlantic region in as little as 7 days is enough to motivate me to work an extra day next week to add to my ongoing cumulative hurricane chase fund.

We may not get any cyclones out of this pattern from these two westward-moving tropical waves, but I'm not willing to take a chance. Especially with some of the GFS ensembles on board.

No sir.


did you see these Kori?

580. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited. Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
581. JRRP
Quoting 579. AtHomeInTX:



did you see these Kori?




I saw the operational. Not the ensembles. Thanks, Stef.
New TWOs
They bumped up first AOI 5day prob.
Second AOI remains the same

Now

AOI#1 0/20%
AOI#2 10/20%

8pm yesterday

AOI#1 0/10%
AOI#2 10/20%
Quoting KoritheMan:


I saw the operational. Not the ensembles. Thanks, Stef.


you're welcome.
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:

New TWOs
They bumped up first AOI 5day prob.
Second AOI remains the same

Now

AOI#1 0/20%
AOI#2 10/20%

8pm yesterday

AOI#1 0/10%
AOI#2 10/20%


I'll bite when we get 40-50%...Until then they are just covering their bases imvho.
Hot, trashy, mess...

Just a little trashy ATM, but certainly not a hot mess.



See the difference?
Quoting 587. StormJunkie:

Just a little trashy ATM, but certainly not a hot mess.



See the difference?


lmao
Euro seems to like second one so far.
Quoting 519. StormJunkie:



Would be really cool if this blogosphere ponied up one day to purchase the ECMWF data for him for a couple years. He really has done a great job with his maps.


We're still working on getting you help.
591. FOREX
Just woke up, what's the latest with the operational models?
Quoting 589. AtHomeInTX:

Euro seems to like second one so far.


Looks good on instant weather maps through 72 hours.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited. Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting FOREX:
Just woke up, what's the latest with the operational models?

Scroll down and see for your self
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks good on instant weather maps through 72 hours.


yep see how much it'll feel that trough now.
Btw the 00Z UKMET
Show system further S and W of the last run
Quoting 595. AtHomeInTX:



yep see how much it'll feel that trough now.


It looks too shallow and the trough is pulling out with the continental ridge building from the west and the Subtropical ridge coming in from the east.
598. JRRP
Quoting 598. JRRP:




NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 52.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2014 12.5N 52.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.9N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.3N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.7N 63.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.4N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 18.2N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


00UTC 25.08.2014 20.7N 72.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
Quoting Drakoen:


It looks too shallow and the trough is pulling out with the continental ridge building from the west and the Subtropical ridge coming in from the east.


Yep, that's what happened.
601. JRRP
buoy 14.516 N 53.024 W


buoy 14.329 N 46.082 W
Both European 00z models show development of the AOI below heading towards the general direction of the Greater Antilles with an ominous 500mb longwave pattern.

Quoting Drakoen:
Both European 00z models show development of the AOI below heading towards the general direction of the Greater Antilles with an ominous 500mb longwave pattern.



yep. and the track there after is starting to resemble some of the other models.
605. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 52.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2014 12.5N 52.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.9N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.3N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.7N 63.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.4N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 18.2N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


00UTC 25.08.2014 20.7N 72.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

looks like the shear will be relax in that time
must be seen to be believed
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
.
Katrina prt. 2 ;)
Off east Florida with a building ridge on top of it. can't be good.
608. TXCWC
0Z GEM / UKMET / EURO showing development in the 5 day period - all taking system to about the same area: while GFS still shows strong wave currentlyin same timeframe

EURO - free sites not finished running yet

GEM
img src=" photo gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_20_zps6e9fafa8.png">

UKMET
img src=" photo ukmet_zps87072460.gif">
euro went its own way off east coast. but they are looking mighty close a lot of those runs first five days or so. you're right.

00z ECM has a tropical storm north of the Greater Antilles with absolutely no shear on it, yet it doesn't strengthen it like the GEM/UKM yet.

Yah mahn agreed..So much dry air.,. moisture surge has and presently is weak .....upper low near the CC?..( As an aside..I believe Bertha will eventually be stripped of her hrrcn status when reviewed formally)
Persistence from last season low energy anomaly...etc..
Just a cycle..we will probably get one or two more, unless shear starts up, But! it only takes one, especially in GOM , sometimes they wind up really fast in that warm bathtub.

We all probably know the long range is low, but its really anyone's guess how low we go.

Another 3 weeks or so for Cape Verde types.
Quoting 610. Stormchaser2007:

00z ECM has a tropical storm north of the Greater Antilles with absolutely no shear on it, yet it doesn't strengthen it like the GEM/UKM yet.




When does the ECMWF ever want a normal system? It's either the next Typhoon Tip or a meager TS.
00z ECMWF



It was fun tonight y'all. I'm out. Night everybody. :D
ECMWF seems to want to develop the eastern tropical wave, while the GFS is infatuated with the western tropical wave.
There's also a considerable difference regarding the amplitude and location of a progressive mid- to upper shortwave appearing in the GFS and ECMWF forecast fields over the United States just after 200 hours in the models.

The GFS shows a flatter trough that never dives south of the midwest/Great Lakes, while the Euro shows the trough fracturing, with the northern portion of the trough heading northward along the same lines as the GFS, and the southern portion developing into a cutoff low over Kansas/Oklahoma with a trailing trough sagging south into west Texas.

Still a lot of uncertainty. Could be an interesting few days ahead if we see these trends in the reliable global models for the next couple of days.
Quoting 606. HurricaneAndre:

Katrina prt. 2 ;)


You really gonna send this storm my way yeah right! Watch tomorrow its gonna be gone!

Gem..a week from today............................................. ..................
Gem way out in time but............................................... ............................
GFS 168hrs out. Finally getting some multi-model support for something forming over the next couple days.

Should see development chances rise to about 30-40% over the next 120 hours due to the model support increasing overnight.

GFS is finally on board with TCG
192hrs

And GFS 240hrs out...

we better watch this tropical wave
cat 2 hurricane
maybe the storm ill hit the east coat to.
630. ackee
So I see lots of model hinting development seem like the carribean could become more favorable I think anything that does make it into the western carribean or GOM will have very good condtion working with
Good Morning..

00z NCEP calling for GOM bound..



we have three invests in three days from now!!
633. JRRP
NAM
On boy...

06z Navgem has went south and west..GOM bound it seems





lets not forget about this tropical wave it got a good spin to it to
00z Euro going with east coast scenario route





last frame

I've noticed that a lot of the "unreliable" models have started picking up on these future storms quicker than the "reliable" models. Going to get real interesting next week, my friends!
00z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.9N 38.2W

last frame for the UKMet




VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2014 12.9N 38.2W WEAK

00UTC 20.08.2014 14.1N 40.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 15.2N 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 52.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2014 12.5N 52.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.9N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.3N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.7N 63.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.4N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 18.2N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 25.08.2014 20.7N 72.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

Quoting 638. STORMW2014:

I've noticed that a lot of the "unreliable" models have started picking up on these future storms quicker than the "reliable" models. Going to get real interesting next week, my friends!


yep..but the unreliable models were just waiting on the reliable ones who would have caught on..eventually..
Quoting 637. ncstorm:

00z Euro going with east coast scenario route>



I predict it will go exactly between Nicaragua and Bermuda...Should it develop.
Quoting 641. StormJunkie:



I predict it will go exactly between Nicaragua and Bermuda...Should it develop.


Oh really :)..exactly?
643. JRRP
Quoting 642. ncstorm:



Oh really :)..exactly?


Yep, because if the models continue to show the system develop...You will hear plenty of "It's going to end up near 'The Caymans', 'The OBX', 'Miami', ' New Orleans', 'It could go further N and hit Washington', etc, etc, etc.

At this point, the GOM is likely the best bet...But will need to see some continued model continuity to really iron it out. Just hoping level heads prevail through this process.
heard a bunch of characters predicting nothing to sept and even longer. wishcasters.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yep, because if the models continue to show the system develop...You will hear plenty of "It's going to end up near 'The Caymans', 'The OBX', 'Miami', ' New Orleans', 'It could go further N and hit Washington', etc, etc, etc.

At this point, the GOM is likely the best bet...But will need to see some continued model continuity to really iron it out. Just hoping level heads prevail through this process.


LOL. I hope the winning lotto ticket blows into my hand outside this morning too.

Quoting 644. StormJunkie:



Yep, because if the models continue to show the system develop...You will hear plenty of "It's going to end up near 'The Caymans', 'The OBX', 'Miami', ' New Orleans', 'It could go further N and hit Washington', etc, etc, etc.

At this point, the GOM is likely the best bet...But will need to see some continued model continuity to really iron it out. Just hoping level heads prevail through this process.


Oh no..the fun is just beginning now with all the possible solutions..

in my 300 voice..

"THIS IS WU!!"

Quoting 634. MAweatherboy1:

On boy...




Maybe it Ethels before landfall...
Ethel was a pretty great storm..A north GOM Cat 5 that hit land as a TS.
But a Cat 3 into louisiana or Texas is not as great...lol
Another very strong warm pool is building infact this is a lot stronger than I thought it would be. Going to be interesting to see how long this El-Nino last as we could get a 2 year Nino.

6z GFS ensembles look more north, with several showing a recurve after impacting many of the islands in the Caribbean. A few still show it Gulf bound and of course some don't really show anything which is entirely possible, if not likely. As usual we'll need to wait for a better defined area (invest) to consolidate to have much of an idea of what will happen.
Quoting 650. MAweatherboy1:

6z GFS ensembles look more north, with several showing a recurve after impacting many of the islands in the Caribbean. A few still show it Gulf bound and of course some don't really show anything which is entirely possible, if not likely. As usual we'll need to wait for a better defined area (invest) to consolidate to have much of an idea of what will happen.


Euro has a track similar to Hurricane Arthur in July.
Good morning over there. Notice this odd counterflow in the strangely squeezed Atl ITCZ: Southern stream towards the east, northern stream towards the west:

Earth Wind animation.

MIMIC of Precipitable Water shows it as well:



Any explanation from our more knowing tropical experts?
This next warm pool is very large and stronger than any warm pool in 2009 or 2002 the last moderate El-Nino's. Now we finally have the SOI at more El-Nino levels so we should have El-Nino finally declared by December.


SOI values for 19 Aug 2014
Average for last 30 days -8.1
Average for last 90 days -2.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -11.0
Been waiting for something to happen with the tropics. Original forecast from June 1.

Atlantic Basin
15 named storms 13 to go
9 canes 7 to go
3 Major 3 to go
1 Cat 5 1 to go
2 canes will make land fall in US and one will be cat 2 or greater.

Gro will finally tell us all which of the three ships he came over on, My guess The Nina.

Remember it aint over yet, but I do like my crow fried!
655. JRRP
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yep, because if the models continue to show the system develop...You will hear plenty of "It's going to end up near 'The Caymans', 'The OBX', 'Miami', ' New Orleans', 'It could go further N and hit Washington', etc, etc, etc.

At this point, the GOM is likely the best bet...But will need to see some continued model continuity to really iron it out. Just hoping level heads prevail through this process.

lol
Quoting 651. StormTrackerScott:



Euro has a track similar to Hurricane Arthur in July.

Towards the end of the run I guess, Arthur obviously didn't come from the east Atlantic like this potential storm might. The 0z Euro run looked a little off to me, the storm it showed seemed too weak for its track.
657. JRRP
Quoting 656. MAweatherboy1:


Towards the end of the run I guess, Arthur obviously didn't come from the east Atlantic like this potential storm might. The 0z Euro run looked a little off to me, the storm it showed seemed too weak for its track.


The reason is because of a fairly stout east coast trough which causes a trough split to occur over FL.
659. JRRP
Quoting 646. Thunderfan:



LOL. I hope the winning lotto ticket blows into my hand outside this morning too.




Pot stirrers. If there is a wave, things can happen. This one will have to traverse somewhat trashy condition. If it happens to ride the PR/DR/Haiti/Cuba spine...Doun't count on it being much. If it fall too far S in the Carb, don't expect too much. Mona Passage to the Fl Straights seems to be a fairly safe thread the needle; or hang just S of those Islands and make a short trip over the W tip of Cuba, or cut the Yuc straights. Up an over the Antilles headed toward FL would likely be fairly safe, but that's not the consensus atm.
Plus 4C anomalies folks is nothing to sneeze at. Looks as if the possibilities for a strong El-Nino maybe back on the table. You can kinda see it here on the CFS maps. Strong southern jet be projected here.

Lots of Gulf storms this Winter.



662. FOREX
Quoting 629. hurricanes2018:

maybe the storm ill hit the east coat to.


Wave doesn't look as good as the past two days.
Significant sea level rises have occurred over the last week across the Central Pacific as this new warm pool rapidily builds.



Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:

Plus 4C anomalies folks is nothing to sneeze at. Looks as if the possibilities for a strong El-Nino maybe back on the table. You can kinda see it here on the CFS maps. Strong southern jet be projected here.

Lots of Gulf storms this Winter.






Maybe, but I always thought that weak to neutral Nino or Nina was better for the tropics than strong Nino...or even strong Nino for that matter.

I'd be thrilled with a good El Nino bringing a foot of snow to the SE coast...That would be good times.
Quoting 662. FOREX:



Wave doesn't look as good as the past two days.


It's a very elongated area. Question is, does the eastern portion hold on and develop, does the western portion pull a comeback and develop, or does it ever recover from being so elongated?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Well this was a nice change. Wake up and come on to the blog to find model consensus has increased greatly for this system, rather than to find out that the area went "poof". It'll be interesting to see what it does when it does develop, perhaps it'll be the first major. Exciting stuff for now. :)
Quoting 664. StormJunkie:





Maybe, but I always thought that weak to neutral Nino or Nina was better for the tropics than strong Nino...or even strong Nino for that matter.

I'd be thrilled with a good El Nino bringing a foot of snow to the SE coast...That would be good times.


I honestly was expecting a peak of plus 3C anomalies from this second warm pool the fact that we went from plus 2C anomalies to plus 4C anomalies in concerning.

On another note looked the pressure patterns across the US on the Euro and GFS and the GFS shows a strong Bermuda High extending all the way to the SE Coast while the Euro has a stronger east coast trough in place based on the pattern all summer I suspect the Euro is going to be right here.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
I'm not sure that "elongated" even properly describes this.

671. JRRP
NHC not excited yet...Those silly level headed professionals.
Quoting 644. StormJunkie:



Yep, because if the models continue to show the system develop...You will hear plenty of "It's going to end up near 'The Caymans', 'The OBX', 'Miami', ' New Orleans', 'It could go further N and hit Washington', etc, etc, etc.

At this point, the GOM is likely the best bet...But will need to see some continued model continuity to really iron it out. Just hoping level heads prevail through this process.
I think its coming to Toronto western end of lake Ontario
J/K
Quoting 673. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think its coming to Toronto western end of lake Ontario
J/K


No worries, I think that technically still falls between the extended Nicaragua to Bermuda corridor cone.
object width="420" height="315">
I'm personally not surprised w/ the varying model solutions regarding the disturbances in the central Atlantic, it can be difficult in these kind of situations for model guidance to hone in on one specific region of low pressure & vorticity, when there is a very broad and relatively large region of lower than normal pressures embedded near & within the monsoon trough, which acts to "mask" isolated vorticity maximums that model guidance can latch onto for development purposes. We tend to see this on a more regular basis generally outside the confines of the peak of the hurricane season (when climatology focuses development in W Carib) in association w/ the Central America Monsoon Gyre where similar rules apply to the current set up we have in the central Atlantic.
Quoting 670. StormJunkie:

I'm not sure that "elongated" even properly describes this.




Good Morning. Big change in the Atlantic ITCZ from yesterday to today. Today is the first day of the past two months that we actually have a continuous ITCZ stretching from Africa to the lower Antilles. Proof that the August "switch" is primed for waves to move across the Central Atlantic in a relatively moist environment (the current ITCZ has even joined with the monsoon trof over Central America).

Now, in spite of this, not every wave (probably about 15-30 between now and the end of September) will develop due to the other factors we have been looking at so far; dry-stable air, SAL proliferation, and sheer issues for any given wave. The SAL and stable air issues are a big ticket item just waiting to squelch convective activity on any given wave so we have to go back to the basics in terms of development.

No matter how good a wave looks, you need to have persistent convection over a period of a few days to help generate additional moisture protection around a well defined lower level coc and enough moisture that it can "lift out" along with it if a TD/TS forms and coreolis takes over as the disturbance lifts out of the ITCZ.

Those two waves on the NHC radar (and particularly the one closer to the Antilles with some convective activity) look good so far but it will take several days to see how much moisture they can bring along with them at they enter the Caribbean basin which is currently full of SAL.


Quoting 676. STORMW2014:



Quit with you "El Niño" crap
that's one
06z NCEP Ensembles..

Quoting 680. Tazmanian:





Reported. He has a right to say what he wants on here if you don't like it put him on your ignore. List and be done with. With but you don't need to be rude


Ok
Interesting fact:
On August 24, 1992 the United states was struck by two names storms.

The first was Hurricane Lester around 0300 UTC.
Lester first hit the northern Mexican states of Baja California Sur and Sonora, before crossing the border into Arizona as a minimal tropical storm.

The second was Hurricane Andrew around 08:40 UTC.
Obviously, Andrew probably stole all the National attention.

The remnants of the two storms eventually merged over Pennsylvania.

Pictured: Hurricanes Lester and Andrew on August 22, 1992


The one thing we are seeing so far, that may be problematic this CV season is the current trajectory pattern into the Caribbean and the slower trade winds; these current waves are moving along at the "perfect" 10 mph range. The projected Trof activity across Conus may turn storms that form earlier in the Central Atlantic and move towards the Greater Antilles or Bahamas but these current "low riders" that get into the Caribbean might pose a danger to the Gulf later on if they struggle entering the Caribbean but find the sweet spot in the Western Caribbean.  Not surprising to see some of the models hinting at a potential storm in the Gulf down the road given this current set-up.
Wind shear is really low today in the Upper Caribbean, Gulf, and Florida Straights:

a model consensus? finally. very interested to see how many waves could make it farther west because once again, since we don't have an el nino, shear has been relatively favorable and ssts are warmer further west. 2002 is a perfect analogue year like I and Kori have been pointing out. Could be in for a decent september
Quoting 680. Tazmanian:





Reported. He has a right to say what he wants on here if you don't like it put him on your ignore. List and be done with. With but you don't need to be rude


Why does reporting people make up like 90% of all your posts
Quoting 676. STORMW2014:



Quit with you "El Niño" crap


Very rarely feel the need to flag a comment, and I know others have already done so, but I have a major issue with anyone who creates multiple handles with the sole intention of making sure another member sees his insults!
Also, while El Nino has not shown up as of yet, indicators are still there that it is developing, just more slowly than expected. Of course, here's a new scenario...maybe, just maybe, we don't know every single climatological phenomena that exists. Or, that global warming (not discussing manmade vs. natural) might have actually changed the mechanisms? Is it possible this may be a new type of Nino? The fact is that many regions are seeing Nino-like conditions, whether the ocean and atmosphere are in conjunction or not!
canadian model next wk is scary if this develops and ends up just s of s florida it could be a candidate to be a major
Quoting 615. KoritheMan:

ECMWF seems to want to develop the eastern tropical wave, while the GFS is infatuated with the western tropical wave.
Well to be honest I want both to form. especially the Western as is the ones models are showing going into the Caribbean sea. Might get a chance of a hit. Knowing my luck the other wave might absorb this one though.
right now we have high wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots
Quoting 694. islander101010:

canadian model next wk is scary


CMC- constantly making cyclones

Look at that model, but don't take too much of it to heart.
Quoting 669. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The second wave is the remnants of 95L right?
right now we have high wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots read the map right
Regarding the primary topic of the current blog entry: one would have to be blind—well, at least color blind—to not notice the preponderance of reds in Figure 1 above, along with its concomitant dearth of blues. In fact, with the exception of relatively small cool spots over the US Midwest, the western part of Russia, the southern tip of South America, and the far western Pacific, things were indeed pretty toasty last month. Kind of makes one wonder what that map will look like when the next El Nino gets truly underway, n'est-ce pas?

can. model? how true but this model over the past yrs has done pretty good during the heart of the season also we have a developing system in the mdr
Quoting 693. ProphetessofDoom:



Very rarely feel the need to flag a comment, and I know others have already done so, but I have a major issue with anyone who creates multiple handles with the sole intention of making sure another member sees his insults!
Also, while El Nino has not shown up as of yet, indicators are still there that it is developing, just more slowly than expected. Of course, here's a new scenario...maybe, just maybe, we don't know every single climatological phenomena that exists. Or, that global warming (not discussing manmade vs. natural) might have actually changed the mechanisms? Is it possible this may be a new type of Nino? The fact is that many regions are seeing Nino-like conditions, whether the ocean and atmosphere are in conjunction or not!


Quit with the El Niño crap is insulting?? New type I El Niño? Hmmm.... Let me check on that
I have to say that the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ looks the best it has done this season:



And all the mid-lower level dry air around it is starting to break up nicely now:

Before:



After:



Right in time for the peak of the season:

One correction to my comment below as to "trajectory" pattern; all CV waves move West in the Atlantic this time of year embedded in the ITCZ and a wave is not a storm with a trajectory.  The ultimate trajectory of any Cape Verde storm will be determined by how soon it makes TS status (before or after getting to the vicinity of the Antilles) and the position of the A-B high for that particular storm (and trof passages that weaken the ridge).  The observation is that if you assume that hostile conditions in the Central Atlantic will retard storm formation before getting to the Antilles, then we could see several storms form in the Caribbean this year as opposed to missing land altogether out to sea.

Last few seasons featured a similar pattern (struggling tropical storms in the Caribbean basin) due to dry stable air and faster trade wind anomalies. The dry-stable air is present again this year but the trade wind anomaly is not; back to normal speeds that will allow vertical stacking if the right conditions come along for any given TD/TS that can fight off the dry air in a low shear environment. 
Quoting 705. Envoirment:

I have to say that the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ looks the best it has done all year:



And all the mid-lower level dry air around it is starting to break up nicely now ahead of it:

Before:



After:



Right in time for the peak of the season:



Which is expected and many on here including myself and lurkers out there said just wait and see.
Quoting 708. Tazmanian:




This two yet you no EL niño. Is this haveing two be one of the topics. Of. Dr m blog he wort about. So. Scott is being on topic


Ok
Good morning everyone. I see the models are coming into good agreement on possible tropical development from this region. Since the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and UKMET have all been posted here is the FIM models.



FIM-9:



FIM-8:



FIMX-ZUES:



For more model runs go here: Earth System Research Laboratory
Quoting 696. hurricanes2018:

right now we have high wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots
the wind shear will kill any tropical wave going in the Caribbean


DOOM!!!!



What is that off CA
I think everybody needs another bowl of cornflakes this morning minus the extra ingredient
omg another Katrina?.......................................... ..............................
Quoting 719. LargoFl:

omg another
lets not go that far yet anyway
Quoting 718. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think everybody needs another bowl of cornflakes this morning minus the extra ingredient


everybody?..its only the usual suspects..lets not group all of WU in a select group of company..
too far out in time but looks like a New Orleans area hit once again...too far out in time but be alert....
964 MB is a pretty powerful hurricane isnt it??
Quoting 721. ncstorm:



everybody?..its only the usual suspects..lets not group all of WU in a select group of company..
u had enough cornflakes yer good to go

and u know they know who they are
Quoting 720. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets not go that far yet anyway
Hi keeper, yeah Keeper we'll see what the models say around monday..but its good to be alert and with this extra slow storm season folks may very well NOT have prepared..we'll we'll see next week...its just one model with one model run..could even change next run huh
Quoting 724. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u had enough cornflakes yer good to go

and u know they know who they are


I actually had pancakes..
we have no more lows now and rain and t.storms are going bye to.. we lost lots of t.storms and rain with them tropical waves
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think everybody needs another bowl of cornflakes this morning minus the extra ingredient




Lol
Quoting 725. LargoFl:

Hi keeper, yeah Keeper we'll see what the models say around monday..but its good to be alert and with this extra slow storm season folks may very well NOT have prepared..we'll we'll see next week...its just one model with one model run..could even change next run huh
it will change hundred times

models are guidance only and do not depict final outcome to any one single event
Quoting 720. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets not go that far yet anyway
Good morning..You remind me of the good hearted cop that likes to roll..:)
Quoting 697. nwobilderburg:



CMC- constantly making cyclones

Look at that model, but don't take too much of it to heart.
I bet you is not gong to hapern !! wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots
Quoting 731. hurricanes2018:

I bet you is not gong to hapern !! wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots

Wind Shear doesn't stay constant, it relaxes and increases daily. As highs and lows shift around.
Quoting 731. hurricanes2018:

I bet you is not gong to hapern !! wind shear in all the Caribbean 40 knots



Most of the models do keep it further north though, where the shear is less. Plus, the shear is forcast to decrease over the next few days or so.
We don't know what will happen in the Atlantic season, but it looks like the roller coaster ride is about to begin.
One scenario coming up.




WSI Insurance Wx‏@WSI_Insurance
Overnight numerical model guidance has trended much more aggressive with developing a western MDR tropical cyclone pic.twitter.com/QCf287SA7w




When will people learn that models more than 5 days out are basically useless especially when being run on storms that haven't even formed yet?

The likelyhood that these things go poof is so much greater than models that far out verifying I will never understand why people even bother posting them.

*shrug*

At least the MDR seems to be turning a bit more favorable than it has been but still not exactly great conditions.
Quoting 671. JRRP:



It appears that the best case scenario for tropical cyclone genesis with these two waves in the CATL is for them to consolidate together. Depicted by both the GFS and GEM to occur. There has been another easterly trade wind burst off to east of the waves that is pushing the eastern AOI quicker than its companion to the west. This should allow the monsoon trough to catch back up to these waves and perhaps, coupled with the passing cckw, spark genesis before this system even reaches the western Caribbean.
Though the GFS and GEM were far more aggressive in their 6Z and 0Z runs, everyone needs to keep their head on straight and realize that this aggressive approach in development has only occurred in one run in the GFS and only a couple of times in the usually aggressive GEM model. There needs to be a far greater consistency of development with this before we can be making speculations on TC genesis locations, intensity and track. For now, we watch and wait.
6Z GFS develop three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic by the end of the run. One Caribbean runner (Cristobal), one in the BOC/southwest GOM (Dolly), and another strong wave out in the CATL in the long range (Eduoard). By far the most TC development the GFS has shown for the basin all season.
First is first our island friends will need to keep an eye on this potential development in the next few days.

Quoting 736. Doss2k:

When will people learn that models more than 5 days out are basically useless especially when being run on storms that haven't even formed yet?

The likelyhood that these things go poof is so much greater than models that far out verifying I will never understand why people even bother posting them.

*shrug*

At least the MDR seems to be turning a bit more favorable than it has been but still not exactly great conditions.

Doss2K it is called a consensus. When every major model is showing sometype of development you take notice whether you are a weather enthusiast or working at the NHC. The tracks and intensity are up in the air but is hard to argue that development will not take place in the near future.
good morning....let's look at some 5 day models.....but first a warning from my financial advisor



Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Quoting 723. LargoFl:

964 MB is a pretty powerful hurricane isnt it??

Yes. When depicted on a model run that usually translates to a sub 950MB hurricane. But this coming from the Canadian model, one of the least reliable models and definitely the most aggressive out of all of them, this would translate to strong TS or Minor hurricane on the GFS.
IMO. The GEM is just there to give us the worst possible scenario on a system.
cmc says the pacific is exploding...but hold on there..........the atlantic might have a little something something worth watching......




Heey guys sorry I'm late over slept

NHC bumps up first AOI up to 10/20% 2am TWO was 0/20% and last night 8pm TWO was 0/10% so it's going up

And also interesting 06Z models runs
Quoting 736. Doss2k:

When will people learn that models more than 5 days out are basically useless especially when being run on storms that haven't even formed yet?

The likelyhood that these things go poof is so much greater than models that far out verifying I will never understand why people even bother posting them.

*shrug*

At least the MDR seems to be turning a bit more favorable than it has been but still not exactly great conditions.


The key here is ALL models are hinting development somewhere in Atlantic over the next 2 week, especially Gulf of Mexico region. You are correct that it's too early to pinpoint next storm exactly or how strong it will be, but models are increasingly in tropical activities with each run.

Another thing to watch out for is the ridge in Atlantic is "pushing" everything toward Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting 717. Tazmanian:



What is that off CA


Can't see from behind my work firewall, but I'm guessing it's some variation of this?

ecmwf goes all seargent shults on us...i see nothing........


its going to be an interesting week on here..the models may have come in agreement on development but not in track..this run pretty much covered everyone..







Quoting 736. Doss2k:

When will people learn that models more than 5 days out are basically useless especially when being run on storms that haven't even formed yet?

The likelyhood that these things go poof is so much greater than models that far out verifying I will never understand why people even bother posting them.

*shrug*

At least the MDR seems to be turning a bit more favorable than it has been but still not exactly great conditions.
That is not true, I learn to look at the models past that time frame to get an idea of how the steering patterns are setting up. Like I use a blend of the CFS and GFS long range to make a prediction of the steering pattern. I noted a few weeks ago how the 500 mb. steering was showing a westward bias and we seem to be having that now. I do agree with you on development and intensity past that time frame, especially as each run varies.
gfs catches a hint of blobiness....but it might just be gas.....

Quoting TimSoCal:


Can't see from behind my work firewall, but I'm guessing it's some variation of this?




That would be a strong storm for Ca for this time of year
nav gem has the same blobiness....good thing i listen to myu fellow bloggers who have told me the atlantic will be dead...or else...i might just think something is underfoot


As a Canadian should I feel embarrassed about the CMC? I see the usuals are up to their usual this morning. Leave the blog policing to the blog admins, please. Especially if you're guilty of past indiscretions yourself.
A strong low pressure center is ready to be emerged into the Atlantic Ocean in NC and VA right over the Gulf Stream. This has potential to go from non tropical to tropical in the next few days as it rides the Gulf Stream out to sea.
Quoting 746. TimSoCal:



Can't see from behind my work firewall, but I'm guessing it's some variation of this?


That is the letter L with some green in the background
Quoting 747. ricderr:

ecmwf goes all seargent shults on us...i see nothing........





00z ECMWF does have something weak recurving north of Puerto Rico toward Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast. I don't like posting ECMWF because I'm not supposed to, but I guess one time wouldn't hurt.

HR 216:



850mb vorticity increasing with a small area of low pressure over eastern NC. Great amount of spin located with this low as well as low wind shear in the vicinity. Upper level anticyclone located just southeast of the surface low. This system has a good chance at developing. And with the large blocking regime in place over Atlantic Ocean and Atlantic Canada, this could swing back and hit New England, but that is an unlikely scenario at this time and lacks model support.
Quoting 739. GTstormChaserCaleb:

First is first our island friends will need to keep an eye on this potential development in the next few days.


Models everywhere is making the people on this blog going crazy.
00z ECMWF does have something weak recurving north of Puerto Rico toward Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast. I don't like posting ECMWF because I'm not supposed to, but I guess one time wouldn't hurt.


hey blue....saw that too...but i don't post anything past 5 days....personal rule only.......what i think important...is not at this point where it will go...but that there's a possibility...SOMETHING will go somewhere.....
Quoting 758. TheDawnAwakening:

850mb vorticity increasing with a small area of low pressure over eastern NC. Great amount of spin located with this low as well as low wind shear in the vicinity. Upper level anticyclone located just southeast of the surface low. This system has a good chance at developing. And with the large blocking regime in place over Atlantic Ocean and Atlantic Canada, this could swing back and hit New England, but that is an unlikely scenario at this time and lacks model support.
ncstorm will spend his day with this.
Quoting 757. Bluestorm5:



00z ECMWF does have something weak recurving north of Puerto Rico toward Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast. I don't like posting ECMWF because I'm not supposed to, but I guess one time wouldn't hurt.

HR 216:




You could always post this one on here, Bluestorm5.

watch notting happern at all its to dry out in the Atlantic
Quoting 762. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You could always post this one on here, Bluestorm5.


Beautiful Atlantic.
Quoting 747. ricderr:

ecmwf goes all seargent shults on us...i see nothing........





That's the ensemble mean, not the operational
Quoting 761. prcane4you:

ncstorm will spend his day with this.


It will move off the coast in the next 6-12 hours. Development is possible in the 36-48 hour range.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.
Quoting 766. TheDawnAwakening:



It will move off the coast in the next 6-12 hours. Development is possible in the 36-48 hour range.
Any RELIABLE source on this?
Quoting 766. TheDawnAwakening:



It will move off the coast in the next 6-12 hours. Development is possible in the 36-48 hour range.


Could possibly be a large ridge of high pressure moving down from Atlantic Canada moving southeastward to close off the gap to the northeast of the low pressure center, could stall for a few days over the Gulf Stream and move northwestward back towards the coast, that is worst case scenario as it will be strengthening as it heads towards the coastline. However model support is still there, but an out to sea track is being modeled, but I think this will change as we see further development from the surface low.
Invest coming soon.... :0)
Quoting 760. ricderr:

00z ECMWF does have something weak recurving north of Puerto Rico toward Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast. I don't like posting ECMWF because I'm not supposed to, but I guess one time wouldn't hurt.


hey blue....saw that too...but i don't post anything past 5 days....personal rule only.......what i think important...is not at this point where it will go...but that there's a possibility...SOMETHING will go somewhere.....
The key here is all long-range models got something going on. Long-range can, at least, be useful in picking up pattern and see if there's anything to watch and look like it'll get interesting with building mid-Atlantic ridge.
Quoting 768. prcane4you:

Any RELIABLE source on this?


EURO showed this yesterday and GFS shows it to a degree. I'm just mentioning something that the models can be missing with this setup, CIMSS tropical cyclone page on north Atlantic tells me that this setup could produce Christobal before the Atlantic Tropical Waves.
Quoting 767. GeoffreyWPB:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.
That POSSIBLE is interesting.Very close to the islands.
Quoting 770. hurricane23:

Invest coming soon.... :0)


I would say yes with the NC surface low ready to go offshore, 850mb vorticity intensifying and we have a building upper level ridge moving southeastward towards the Atlantic Ocean from Atlantic Canada.
Quoting 771. Bluestorm5:

The key here is all long-range models got something going on. Long-range can, at least, be useful in picking up pattern and see if there's anything to watch and look like it'll get interesting with building mid-Atlantic ridge.
I know it is wayyy too early, but this pattern is looking like it is favoring a CONUS strike.
Quoting 767. GeoffreyWPB:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.


Where did this come from, things happen quick in the atlantic! Wow
Quoting 770. hurricane23:

Invest coming soon.... :0)
Where 55 West?
Quoting 777. prcane4you:

Where 55 West?

Yes
Quoting prcane4you:
Where 55 West?


Central Atl waves
Hmm I smell an Invest it's soon time to get an invest
RECON is prepped up see as well
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.


Hmm Thursday flight
Quoting 779. hurricane23:



Central Atl waves


You know things are about to get active when 23 starts posting. Very informative blogger!!
Quoting 778. STORMW2014:

Right NOW i dont see nothing there to be a future invest.
hope 12z shows the same thing. maybe an active september... that would be very fun.
Quoting 782. STORMW2014:



You know things are about to get active when 23 starts posting. Very informative blogger!!
Wait for the guy from Tampa
XX/AOI/XXL
Quoting STORMW2014:


You know things are about to get active when 23 starts posting. Very informative blogger!!


That building ridge some of the models are showing could spell trouble for the southeast/gulf IF something does indeed develope.
Long range GFS show second storm coming out the W Caribbean into the GOM looks like it becomes a hurricane in the GOM that would be 2 canes in the GOM by the GFS
789. silas
Yawn. I see my absence for a couple of days hasn't caused any real activity to speak of. Yawn again. On the plus side, we finally got some rain here in Southern Wisconsin last night, though not all that much.

Maybe next time I'm on there will be something to talk about ;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XXL

Good Job Keeps
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Another very strong warm pool is building infact this is a lot stronger than I thought it would be. Going to be interesting to see how long this El-Nino last as we could get a 2 year Nino.



I just dont understand why you keep saying 'how long this El Nino will last'. We have no official El Nino. The 3.4 region is negative, and values are nowhere needed the 0.5C or above for 3 straight months. Save the hype and the crystal ball forecasts until we start seeing weekly values at 0.5C and stay there for a considerable amount of time.


Quoting 786. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/AOI/XXL

As you see shear is in charge there.
Quoting 788. wunderkidcayman:

Long range GFS show second storm coming out the W Caribbean into the GOM looks like it becomes a hurricane in the GOM that would be 2 canes in the GOM by the GFS
Really? The blog will exploded.
Quoting 792. prcane4you:

As you see shear is in charge there.
I tell everyone before about the high wind shear
ECMWF
P17L and P18L appear to be combining, P20L is gone
Quoting 770. hurricane23:

Invest coming soon.... :0)
I hope so
Quoting prcane4you:
As you see shear is in charge there.

Actually it has developed a nice decent size upper level anticyclone over the AOI so it has the shear protection barriers

TUTTs expected to move out this week/weekend going into next week allowing for this upper anticyclone to slip through and protect it
Quoting 794. hurricanes2018:

I tell everyone before about the high wind shear
So we are wasting our time.
Quoting 754. slavicthunder:

As a Canadian should I feel embarrassed about the CMC? I see the usuals are up to their usual this morning. Leave the blog policing to the blog admins, please. Especially if you're guilty of past indiscretions yourself.
And the CMC is actually a good model. Like all of them ,it has its strong and weak points.
From the NPS site on P18L

SYNOPSIS 2014081900

P18L %u2026 95L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day)
15N, 36W
700 hPa

ECMWF: The earlier story of a fast P18L at a higher latitude continuing to track across the Atlantic has changed to one of ITCZ excitation by the wave (coinciding with the observed convection) and rapid development of the circulation. Developed storm ends up over the northern Windward Islands at 120 hours.
GFS: ITCZ excitation process takes a little longer in GFS, not completing until after 36 hours. Hit max intensity as a strong pouch at 96 hours south of Hispaniola while tracking primarily westward.

UKMET: UKMET has been developing P18L for the last several days of forecasts, and the other models are coming into agreement. Analysis position is already on the southeastern end of the wave, indicating that any ITCZ excitation is already complete in UKMET. Develops into a strong storm, ending up over eastern Dominican Republic at 120 hours.
NAVGEM: OUTLIER! NAVGEM continues to develop P17L to the west while keeping P18L weaker. However, rather than killing P18L immediately as in yesterday%u2019s forecast, NAVGEM now maintains for at least five days. Analysis and early portion are similar to other models, hinting that ITCZ excitation has just completed (pouch center is at southeastern end of the wave trough) and a distinct pouch exists. However, P18L then weakens and stalls through 60 hours, even being pulled eastward by approaching larger P20L. Then, P18L intensifies again and starts tracking to the NW. Hits max OW of 7x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours, near 41W, which is much farther east than in the other models. (NAVGEM depicts P17L, rather than P18L, threatening the eastern Caribbean at 120 hours.) Because of the unique NAVGEM track, I used 13N as the Hovmoller latitude rather than 15N as with the other models.

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


I would say yes with the NC surface low ready to go offshore, 850mb vorticity intensifying and we have a building upper level ridge moving southeastward towards the Atlantic Ocean from Atlantic Canada.
Not unless NC has moved to 15N. :-)
I believe that may be the remnants of ex 94L stationary east of Straits of Fl and over Bahamas. Wonder if Bahamas are lacking for precip. May provide some much needed rain.

Quoting 752. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




the east coast got something to watch!
Quoting prcane4you:
Really? The blog will exploded.


2nd to end of run

Quoting 794. hurricanes2018:

I tell everyone before about the high wind shear


24hr Shear Tendency
Quoting 798. prcane4you:

So we are wasting our time.

He doesn't know what he's talking about. So I don't know why your listening to him. So if it's wasting your time then just leave and do other things.
Quoting 805. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



24hr Shear Tendency



Wow, the shear looks real bad :)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I believe that may be the remnants of ex 94L stationary east of Straits of Fl and over Bahamas. Wonder if Bahamas are lacking for precip. May provide some much needed rain.


Ex 94L is over the Yucatan Guatemala area
Quoting 798. prcane4you:

So we are wasting our time.


Don't listen to those amateurs
Quoting STORMW2014:


Wow, the shear looks real bad :)

Not that bad
However it's moving out the bad later in the week/weekend
they must of updated the canadian model its been pretty conservative this yr. it always has done decently during the peak of the season so far my pick this yr is the gem 1. wishcasters ranking.
Quoting 755. TheDawnAwakening:

A strong low pressure center is ready to be emerged into the Atlantic Ocean in NC and VA right over the Gulf Stream. This has potential to go from non tropical to tropical in the next few days as it rides the Gulf Stream out to sea.


Some severe storms NC, VA and SC coastal last night.
12z NAM you guys in the islands keep an eye on this.

I suspect when we get an invest this blog will go into hyperdrive and this comment will end up on the next page. :P
Quoting prcane4you:
So we are wasting our time.

Don't pay attention too much to him
And he's talking about not paying attention to armatures he's one to talk
Quoting 807. STORMW2014:



Wow, the shear looks real bad :)
not really it has a path of weaker shear too no shear it can track in once its passes the lower islands
Wow if most of the models if not all showing a tropical system including the non trop NAM



Then you know you have to pay attention

I think this may be the best model support for tropical development for the year
Quoting 701. Neapolitan:

Regarding the primary topic of the current blog entry: one would have to be blind—well, at least color blind—to not notice the preponderance of reds in Figure 1 above, along with its concomitant dearth of blues. In fact, with the exception of relatively small cool spots over the US Midwest, the western part of Russia, the southern tip of South America, and the far western Pacific, things were indeed pretty toasty last month. Kind of makes one wonder what that map will look like when the next El Nino gets truly underway, n'est-ce pas?




As usual, the polar regions are once again left w/o any data input into "global" temperature, there's no excuse for that in the satellite era
Quoting 799. hydrus:

And the CMC is actually a good model. Like all of them ,it has its strong and weak points.
Is it still considered the CMC model or the GEM model? Global Environmental Multiscale Model
822. SLU
maybe a T.D in a few days from now!!
Global warming is confirmed by both hot and cold weather
Quoting 820. Webberweather53:



As usual, the polar regions are once again left w/o any data input into "global" temperature, there's no excuse for that in the satellite era
You know thanks for pointing that out I never noticed that before. Don't we have polar orbiting satellites to scan the polar regions?
Quoting 809. STORMW2014:



Don't listen to those amateurs
its not a wait of time u still need to watch it because u never know about the weather.
#817 reported

Look dude you have done good with some things but some time you over do it
Some people do it too but you over do sometimes

Ok that's my final word on this

Back to tropics
i am right the wind shear is going up!! i said it before!!
I know everyone is busy scouting out the latest long range models but, as far as I can tell, there still isn't one actual low in the MDR. Each of these models are being manually initialized off one point in the broad trough that covers almost 10 degrees. It's likely that each model is initialized from a different point. Models also include some climatology, so results are going to be more bullish because of that going forward if nothing else. It does appear the conditions are starting to turn somewhat more favorable, but a hurricane hitting {fill in name of place} on this run is likely to either vanish or be shown somewhere else on the next run. I know some of you enjoy this looking at every model run thing, so far be it from me to interrupt your enjoyment. The old ticker's just getting too frail for me to have that much excitement. :-0
Quoting 820. Webberweather53:



As usual, the polar regions are once again left w/o any data input into "global" temperature, there's no excuse for that in the satellite era



Could it be? A wave holding on to convection? I think so
Quoting 828. hurricanes2018:

i am right the wind shear is going up!! i said it before!!


The shear doesn't look that bad if it stays a tad to the north
i hope we get a invest soon.
Quoting 809. STORMW2014:



Don't listen to those amateurs
Hard to distinguish between the two....sometimes
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I believe that may be the remnants of ex 94L stationary east of Straits of Fl and over Bahamas. Wonder if Bahamas are lacking for precip. May provide some much needed rain.

ex94L is over the Yucatan headed west. It will become the next in a long line of invests in the Pacific. Its work in the Atlantic is done.
836. csmda
I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.
An invest tag would be great... Floaters and more accurate model runs
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow if most of the models if not all showing a tropical system including the non trop NAM



Then you know you have to pay attention

I think this may be the best model support for tropical development for the year
I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.
840. csmda
Quoting 838. sar2401:

I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.


You get any rain yet? We had lots of cloud cover yesterday but no rain.
Quoting 798. prcane4you:

So we are wasting our time.
He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.
842. csmda
Quoting 839. STORMW2014:



Reported for being a angry mother


Haha! Much better :)
surface temp depiction northern hemisphere as of 1400 aug 19 2014

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is it still considered the CMC model or the GEM model? Global Environmental Multiscale Model
Used to be the GEM. Became the CMC two years ago. I don't know why some sites insist on carrying it as the GEM, since it just confuses matters. They dropped the NOGAPS like a hot potato. :-)
Quoting 832. STORMW2014:



The shear doesn't look that bad if it stays a tad to the north
Shear it is,shear will be.Case closed.
nice green color now
Morning everyone. Been watching the model runs and most seem to be hinting towards development. I've been hesitant to go along until we actually have something. These monsoon type systems can be very slow to come together and aside front that, it's still very dry just north of the monsoon trough.

If you click and animate the image, speed up animation and focus on 10.2n, 47.5w (or that vicinity). Seems a little surface low may be taking shame imo.

Can someone fill me in on what's going on with the tropics what are the models predicting about a Gulf storm
Quoting csmda:


You get any rain yet? We had lots of cloud cover yesterday but no rain.
0.03". It was torrential...for five minutes.
Quoting 820. Webberweather53:



As usual, the polar regions are once again left w/o any data input into "global" temperature, there's no excuse for that in the satellite era


No, there are no "excuses". There are, however, valid scientific reasons, reasons well-explained in all the open and available literature for anyone who cares to look. But in short: one of the data sources on which that map is based--the GHCN (for Global Historical Climatology Network)--is an "integrated database of climate summaries from land surface stations across the globe that have been subjected to a common suite of quality assurance reviews". The other--the ERSST--is "a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean%u2013Atmosphere Dataset with missing data filled in by statistical methods." IOW, what you see are surface measurements; no satellite is involved...
Quoting 841. Llamaluvr:

He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.
I love you.Keep tracking your invest,Keebler boy.
Quoting sar2401:
I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.

Agreed
853. csmda
Quoting 849. sar2401:

0.03". It was torrential...for five minutes.


So just enough for false hope. I guess it's better than nothing.
854. Sooon

Quoting 830 KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
Quoting weatherh98:
Could it be? A wave holding on to convection? I think so

Yeah
Quoting 836. csmda:

I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.


Re...wait for it, wait for it....notported.
Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You know thanks for pointing that out I never noticed that before. Don't we have polar orbiting satellites to scan the polar regions?


We do & we have observation from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) for the region north of 80N since 1958, & temperatures in the last 2 summers in the arctic have been below normal according to their data due to a faltering AMO, & sea ice is not near to the levels observed in the late 2000s (in fact we are much closer to the 2000s average @ this pt in time), which can also be attributed to the cooling of the AMO recently that's a response to the overall dip in the MEI since the late 2000s which has also adversely affected the hurricane season...

2014 mean temperatures north of 80N, DMI (green line is avg)


2013 mean temperatures north of 80N, DMI (green line is avg)


Link

Quoting 841. Llamaluvr:

He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.


ELF is my favorite christmas movie! : )
back to lurking
Also SW Carib has exploded with convection
well this is 7 days out..if..it IS here in 7 days..we'll see what happens..........................
Quoting 853. csmda:



So just enough for false hope. I guess it's better than nothing.
Hope is a great thing for the invest tracker.
Quoting 854. Sooon:


Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
just the highest mountain chain on earth still got to train the mountain goats to record the temps there we are working on it
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Tell me how I did.

tues GFS doesnt take it thru the straights but IS showing something there under cuba.....................
Quoting 856. jascott1967:



Re...wait for it, wait for it....notported.
Tropical Depression?
Quoting 854. Sooon:


Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
Quoting 864. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Tell me how I did.


Stormw tells you how.
2 different models, 2 different routes..but all wind up in the same place.....................
Quoting 855. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah
Wheee....have fun
Quoting 869. LargoFl:

2 different models, 2 different routes..but all wind up in the same place.....................
Please God turn it to Tampa
I tend to agree with the GFS description for P17L.
NPS site SYNOPSIS

GFS: Like yesterday, the first day of GFS positions are uncertain since P17L is just an OW max on the western edge of large P18L. Depicted as a small but distinct pouch for Days 2-3. Unlike yesterday’s forecast, the GFS P17L cannot escape P18L and is absorbed by P18L on its southern side after 72 hours.
873. bdWC




A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.


Quoting 850. Neapolitan:



No, there are no "excuses". There are, however, valid scientific reasons, reasons well-explained in all the open and available literature for anyone who cares to look. But in short: one of the data sources on which that map is based--the GHCN (for Global Historical Climatology Network)--is an "integrated database of climate summaries from land surface stations across the globe that have been subjected to a common suite of quality assurance reviews". The other--the ERSST--is "a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean%u2013Atmosphere Dataset with missing data filled in by statistical methods." IOW, what you see are surface measurements; no satellite is involved...


That does absolutely nothing to give reason as to why the NCDC has decided to ignore the polar regions in their global temperature maps, when we have actual data that measures temperatures in these regions. The land only coverage of NCDC is atrocious @ best, missing 2 entire continents of data, that's quite a bit of infilling don't you think? :) We can just use this as a previous example...


876. FOREX
The Central Atlantic waves look like one big mess on Rainbow. Sigh.
877. FOREX
Quoting 874. MississippiWx:

A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.



excellent post. thanks.
Quoting 836. csmda:
I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.


Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

January 1st 1970 join date ?!!!!!!!!!!

'Respect'
Wonderful Post.

Quoting 874. MississippiWx:

A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.



Quoting 875. Webberweather53:



That does absolutely nothing to give reason as to why the NCDC has decided to ignore the polar regions in their global temperature maps, when we have actual data that measures temperatures in these regions. The land only coverage of NCDC is atrocious @ best, missing 2 entire continents of data, that's quite a bit of infilling don't you think? :) We can just use this as a previous example...





You're just being your usual silly self. You may say they're "ignoring" the poles if you'd like, but they're not including them simply because direct surface measurements are more complete and of a far longer duration. Having said all that, you're doubtless aware that the poles are warming faster than anywhere else, so the map would be even *more* red than it already is--and that would send the crackpot denialists into even greater fits of apoplexy... ;-)

The bottom line--as evidenced by those graphs and a million other data points: the planet continues to warm.
881. bdWC
Quoting 878. superpete:



Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

January 1st 1970 join date ?!!!!!!!!!!

'Respect'


beginning of unix time
We just lost power here - seems like lightning from a thunder storm did us in...