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July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2011

According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela

Climate Summaries Drought Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting LillyMyrrh:
I'm going to ask what may seem a stupid question. I've tried to google it, but it redirects right back to this blog. What is the PLANFALF model? It seems to exist only in the demented mind of some blogger.


It's fake.

Made up by some troll.
Quoting Patrap:
Somewhere a Dog is Barking in a Avatar..





If you are referring to dear old Bailey, maybe his howls from assembling the pack chasing down rabbits can be heard on the other side of Rainbow Bridge somewhere. At least that's what I hope.

We had to put him down last week. It was sad. But with every pet, that's just how it goes. They get old and cannot function. But, he lived a good life, and a long life for a dog--15 years.
just wondering if someone can please explain this to me. I know troughs make storms re curve but I also read that depending on the position of the High, the High itself could also re curve cyclones.

what is the case here?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Roger that. There are still those now--some in the United States Congress--who would doubtless like to see a return to a happier Galilean time when scientists could be put on trial for daring to speak out against the Establishment. To such people, the widespread "I Don't Want To Know Anything" institutionalized ignorance of the Dark Ages holds a certain warped fascination and attraction. Sad, really...



a bit overly dramatic there don't ya think? And isn't AGW now the Establishment?

I've heard of politicians and scientists saying that anti-AGW stuff should be censored. But nothing the other way around. I know you get off on saving the planet, but get a grip.

1006. ackee
QUESTION THE OVERAL patern seem to be repeat of last year most storm will recurve for now that GOOD new
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
OLR filtered evolution.

After mid-August the game changes both in terms of activity and overall pattern progression
.

Yep, and it appears that the B/A high is going to build in to the north and block the out to sea scenarios for most systems later this season, hopefully not...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It's fake.

Made up by some troll.


Thanks. That's what I thought. Just wanted to make sure.
Quoting hydrus:
LinkThe UKMET shows Bermuda High building and moving west..


There is still a huge weakness that will recurve anything from even coming close to the east coast over the next 2 weeks. Now beyond that could be a different story. The GFS shows a very "flat" pattern as we end August and start September.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Over 2 inches of rain again this morning! Even though they are fast moving, the cell that moved through was heavy enough and large enough to dump over 2 inches in 25 minutes. It also has been accompanied with very gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and lots of powerful lightning strikes.

Over 7.50 now for August already, heck yeah.
You were sure right about one thing, we don't need tropical systems when we have stalled out boundaries over the state to give us rain. That storm that blew through here was really powerful, bringing with it gusty winds, lightning, and loud rumbles of thunder!
1011. ackee
A negative NAO or postive NAO which result in more shear or a stronger High thanks for u response
1012. Patrap
Quoting cat5hurricane:

In other words, you'll believe any science that validates your AGW ag
enda...

Gotcha.


Did someone touch a nerve there?

Science touches every part of modern life, from medical care, tranportation, what we eat, wear, live in, how we communicate, and even provides us with a blog to discuss tropical weather :) At least if a scientist gets it wrong, there is a built-in failsafe mechanism that points out the error when other scientists try to duplicate you results. No human is immune from mistakes, but that shouldn't stop the science. Now, when science meets greed, and scientists are on the payroll of an economic powerhouse, this way lies corruption and falsification of data (think tobacco companies). Unfortunately, it's not always easy to spot when this happens, and thus it is all too easy to go on believing what we are told, without examining the evidence for ourselves.

We all put on our personal blinders and believe what we wish, but for me- I will follow the science.

1015. ackee
Quoting Chucktown:


There is still a huge weakness that will recurve anything from even coming close to the east coast over the next 2 weeks. Now beyond that could be a different story. The GFS shows a very "flat" pattern as we end August and start September.
WHat about the carrb pre93L seem far south any chance of that entering the carrb
Ackee,
in some ways this season is similar but many things are different compared to last season...
1. Were in neutral, not a developing La nina
2. Weve had a much more active beginning of the season.
3. Though it appears that most storms will go out to sea this season the reality is that were still in the "start of the season" set up, and the hurricane season's actual pattern will show her ugly side later this month into october. which will bring storms up the east coast(like an earl track), bring them into the SE CONUS, or push them into the north caribbean sea to head northerly once it reaches the edge of the ridge.
4. SST's are much warmer.
5. La ninas produce troughiness(like 2010), though we have it now, with the new pattern to set up soon, it wont be here for long.
We still have more than 110 days to go, and we have no idea what could happen.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

If you are referring to dear old Bailey, maybe his howls from assembling the pack chasing rabbits can be heard on the other side of Rainbow Bridge somewhere. At least that's what I hope.

We had to put him down last week. It was sad. But with every pet, that's just how it goes. They get old and cannot function. But, he lived a good life, and a long life for a dog--15 years.


AGW is the "establishment" among the scientific community, just like the theory of gravity and evolution.

However the corporations that are still vested in pollution are pumping millions into anti AGW "research" and spin.

I find the arguments interesting strictly as a study in human psychology.

As an analogue, to this argument find a "young earther" and start discussing our galaxy and then the hubble deep field images. Ask them to explain how the light from a galaxy 20,000 light years away got here in under 6000.

What you will find is the same thing with the rabid anti-AGW crowd. Their minds are closed. They have framed the arguments so they cannot see new evidence.

The Anti-AGW crowd will not accept any new evidence. Just close thier ears and shout socialism louder.

Don't even bother.

Ooops! meant to quote Bobintampa

1018. hydrus
Quoting Chucktown:


There is still a huge weakness that will recurve anything from even coming close to the east coast over the next 2 weeks. Now beyond that could be a different story. The GFS shows a very "flat" pattern as we end August and start September.
I kinda figured the first storm will take the parabolic track..The second storm that the models are showing should make it in to the Caribbean. This is 240 hours.. This is 384..I know its way out in time..
1019. hcubed
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
I'm going to ask what may seem a stupid question. I've tried to google it, but it redirects right back to this blog. What is the PLANFALF model? It seems to exist only in the demented mind of some blogger.


In short, the PLANALF model is total BS, and the admins were considering banning individuals presenting false information during times of active weather.

The proper response to a mention of this model is to use the "!" key.

Many have the poster ignored, so they may not know he's started beck up again.
1020. Gearsts
Quoting ackee:
WHat about the carrb pre93L seem far south any chance of that entering the carrb
Is still to early to tell but it depends on how strong it gets if it develops.
1021. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Ackee,
in some ways this season is similar but many things are different compared to last season...
1. Were in neutral, not a developing La nina
2. Weve had a much more active beginning of the season.
3. Though it appears that most storms will go out to sea this season the reality is that were still in the "start of the season" set up, and the hurricane season's actual pattern will show her ugly side later this month into october. which will bring storms up the east coast(like an earl track), bring them into the SE CONUS, or push them into the north caribbean sea to head northerly once it reaches the edge of the ridge.
4. SST's are much warmer.
5. La ninas produce troughiness(like 2010), though we have it now, with the new pattern to set up soon, it wont be here for long.
We still have more than 110 days to go, and we have no idea what could happen.
Dean, do you see this yr. shaping up like '99?
Quoting FloridaPA:


AGW is the "establishment" among the scientific community, just like the theory of gravity and evolution.

However the corporations that are still vested in pollution are pumping millions into anti AGW "research" and spin.

I find the arguments interesting strictly as a study in human psychology.

As an analogue, to this argument find a "young earther" and start discussing our galaxy and then the hubble deep field images. Ask them to explain how the light from a galaxy 20,000 light years away got here in under 6000.

What you will find is the same thing with the rabid anti-AGW crowd. Their minds are closed. They have framed the arguments so they cannot see new evidence.

The Anti-AGW crowd will not accept any new evidence. Just close thier ears and shout socialism louder.

Don't even bother.

Ooops! meant to quote Bobintampa


Gravity is a law, not a theory. The law of gravity.

Last time I checked, not too many scientists are questioning whether or not they will float if they decide to jump off a cliff. Nor have I stumbled upon many blogs lately that revolved around the subject of whether or not a feather would have a higher terminal velocity than a rock from a 1,000 foot plunge from atop the Sears Tower in Chicago (sorry, will always be the Sears Tower to me :) [I'm a Chicago native]). It's really the Willis Tower in Chicago.

Comparing the theory of anthropogenic global warming to the law of gravity is comparing apples to oranges. It lacks scientific grounding.
Quoting ncstorm:
Whats going on around NC/SC..some blue popping up



Isn't it getting time for some teleconnection this season? Hermine formed in the EPAC, and ended the TX drought in less than one day, 9/9.
Quoting BobinTampa:



a bit overly dramatic there don't ya think? And isn't AGW now the Establishment?

I've heard of politicians and scientists saying that anti-AGW stuff should be censored. But nothing the other way around. I know you get off on saving the planet, but get a grip.


1) No, I don't think it's "overly dramatic"; if I thought it was, I wouldn't have posted it.

2) There are two "establishments". There's the scientific community which works openly and honestly to get at the truth, no matter how ugly that truth might be. And then there's a large and well-funded group of corporations and people who wish to squeeze every last bit of cash they can out of the earth no matter what the long-term environmental or spiritual costs may be, so they work diligently to be sure science isn't allowed to be heard. The latter is the "establishment" of which I speak.

3) Funny, but I never mention "GW" or "AGW" or "climate". If anyone has read that into my innocuous commentary, perhaps they need to do some soul searching?

4) Can you please explain what "get a grip" means in the context in which you used it?
Quoting hydrus:
I kinda figured the first storm will take the parabolic track..The second storm that the models are showing should make it in to the Caribbean. This is 240 hours.. This is 384..I know its way out in time..
I notice the trough over the Great Lakes shifts east over to the Canadian Maritimes, and the High over the Eastern Atlantic shifts west over towards Bermuda...so what would all this mean in terms of track and CONUS landfall?
1027. markot
all the storms this season will not recurve, please quit saying that. grow up.....
Quoting Neapolitan:

1) No, I don't think it's "overly dramatic"; if I thought it was, I wouldn't have posted it.

2) Funny, but I never mention "GW" or "AGW" or "climate". If anyone has read that into my innocuous commentary, perhaps they need to do some soul searching?

3) Can you please explain what "get a grip" means in the context in which you used it?

Take a step back and read that as if you were a third person...

After doing so, you'll realize that others may indeed share a different view from what your interpretation of what dramatic is.

That's relatively normal. In fact, that tends to occur upon a public forum utilized by thousands of different users on a daily basis. And each of these unique users each have different cultural, socio-economical, political, and value-based backgrounds that mirror their views and feelings, - that ultimately are manifested from their comments upon a particular issue(s).
1029. hydrus
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I notice the trough over the Great Lakes shifts east over to the Canadian Maritimes, and the High over the Eastern Atlantic shifts west over towards Bermuda...so what would all this mean in terms of track and CONUS landfall?
This is an excellent link that shows what is forecast to happen in the next 2 to 3 weeks..Link
Trolls and AGW.

Perfect time for lunch.

Guten Tag
1031. hydrus
This is 300 hours out..
1032. bappit
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
I'm going to ask what may seem a stupid question. I've tried to google it, but it redirects right back to this blog. What is the PLANFALF model? It seems to exist only in the demented mind of some blogger.

True.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Take a step back and read that as if you were a third person...

After doing so, you'll realize that others may indeed share a different view from what your interpretation of dramatic is. That tends to occur upon a public forum utilized by thousands of different users on a daily basis. And all these users each have different cultural, socio-economical, political, and value-based backgrounds.

I suppose that to some people the truth is drama--especially when that truth is bad news for them and/or their stock portfolio--and they'd rather not have either. But I never censor my writing based on which "different cultural, socio-economical, political, and value-based backgrounds" any potential reader(s) may have; I just tell the unvarnished truth as science sees it, just as everyone should.
1034. hydrus
This is 384 out with trough situated inland..
92L following Emily antics, low level circulation exposed.


1036. beell
in·noc·u·ous adj \i-ˈnä-kyə-wəs\

Definition of INNOCUOUS
1: producing no injury : harmless
2: not likely to give offense or to arouse strong feelings or hostility : inoffensive, insipid
Quoting Neapolitan:

I suppose that to some people the truth is drama--especially when that truth is bad news for them and/or their stock portfolio--and they'd rather not have either. But I never censor my writing based on which "different cultural, socio-economical, political, and value-based backgrounds" any potential reader(s) may have; I just tell the unvarnished truth as science sees it, just as everyone should.


What do you say when your wife or significant other asks "Do I look fat in this dress?"
Quoting Neapolitan:

I suppose that to some people the truth is drama--especially when that truth is bad news for them and/or their stock portfolio--and they'd rather not have either. But I never censor my writing based on which "different cultural, socio-economical, political, and value-based backgrounds" any potential reader(s) may have; I just tell the unvarnished truth as science sees it, just as everyone should.

"Trust, but verify"

-Ronald Reagan
1039. bappit
Quoting FloridaPA:


As an analogue, to this argument find a "young earther" and start discussing our galaxy and then the hubble deep field images. Ask them to explain how the light from a galaxy 20,000 light years away got here in under 6000.

I think we've got some on this blog actually.
1040. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:

Roger that. There are still those now--some in the United States Congress--who would doubtless like to see a return to a happier Galilean time when scientists could be put on trial for daring to speak out against the Establishment.


I agree. And the "Establishment" around the world are the stuanch AGW scientists and supporters. Anything that is contrary is rediculed.
Quoting KanKunKid:


What do you say when your wife or significant other asks "Do I look fat in this dress?"

If you knew my marriage record, you wouldn't ask. ;-)
Quoting CJ5:


I agree. And the "Establishment" around the world are the stuanch AGW scientists and supporters. Anything that is contrary is rediculed.

In the minds of some, it is.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you knew my marriage record, you wouldn't ask. ;-)


Well said sir, well said!

Or as the Bible so aptly put it: "...and the truth shall set you free!"
1044. Patrap
I know what Lincoln did when His wife asked,,twas on the TV in da HD.

Quoting CJ5:


I agree. And the "Establishment" around the world are the stuanch AGW scientists and supporters. Anything that is contrary is rediculed.

Not anything. But most everything that's been brought up as "contrary" has been dismissed. It's not "ridicule"; it's just how science works.
1046. bappit
Quoting KanKunKid:


What do you say when your wife or significant other asks "Do I look fat in this dress?"

You have to be able to tell a request for information apart from a request for reassurance--and all the other possibilities. Not everything posed as a question actually is a question. For instance, consider the apparent question "Are you hungry?" It often is a subtle statement: "I am hungry." Then you get to the pseudo-questions posed by blog auteurs who only want to win an argument and will say anything to just look like they are winning. A tell-tale sign is anyone quoting Ronald Reagan on a weather blog.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you knew my marriage record, you wouldn't ask. ;-)


haha- that's where my "personal blinders" comes in!
1048. ncstorm
Quoting hydrus:
This is 384 out with trough situated inland..


thats not good at all..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I notice the trough over the Great Lakes shifts east over to the Canadian Maritimes, and the High over the Eastern Atlantic shifts west over towards Bermuda...so what would all this mean in terms of track and CONUS landfall?


One word:

DOOM
1050. Buhdog

You all must have had 2 cups of coffee....awful witty this morning.

3 days in a row of backwards flow in SWFL....

I smell a gulf storms soon.
1051. Buhdog
Radar Fl


Link
1052. ncstorm
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
958 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 14 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 17 2011

THE NEW 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM ITS
PREVIOUS 12Z MEAN. THE NEW 00Z ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUGGEST A
HUNG BACK UPPER TROF OVER VA/THE CAROLINAS DAYS 6-7. IF
CORRECT...THIS SHARP TROF OR SHEAR AXIS COULD INTERACT WITH
TROPICAL ENERGY OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST IN ABOUT A WEEK.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE AMPLIFIED TROUGHS ALONG BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COASTS...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN...AND SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA.


DJIA
10,900.75
-339.02-3.02%
1054. ncstorm
1055. Grothar
Well, I finished my new blog today. I hope Dr. Masters or Angela don't come by and embarrass me by saying its all wrong. :)
Quoting Buhdog:

You all must have had 2 cups of coffee....awful witty this morning.

3 days in a row of backwards flow in SWFL....

I smell a gulf storms soon.


Nope. a gulf storm most likely will not be developing anytime soon. All this heavy rain coming off the gulf is thanks to deep tropical moisture combined with a weak upper trough ans weak disturbances sliding along the trough helping to aid the already moist, unstable air mass.

Just imagine how heavy these storms would be if we had strong upper disturbances sweeping through...

Anyway though, all the energy aiding storm development is from a mid-latitude upper trough. This type of weather situation is not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Quoting Chucktown:


There is still a huge weakness that will recurve anything from even coming close to the east coast over the next 2 weeks. Now beyond that could be a different story. The GFS shows a very "flat" pattern as we end August and start September.


I was thinking that it's nice to have this weakness in August however, I was also thinking that it will leave the door open for a different pattern to potentially take shape in September.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You were sure right about one thing, we don't need tropical systems when we have stalled out boundaries over the state to give us rain. That storm that blew through here was really powerful, bringing with it gusty winds, lightning, and loud rumbles of thunder!


Yeah man! And look at NOAA's facts on Florida weather, most of Florida's rain historically does not come from tropical cyclones. A lot of our weather is related to the tropics, and may be tropical in nature thanks to a very warm atmospheric air column all the way up and high moisture, but not actual tropical cyclones.

Obviously, we have gotten very serious flooding rains from tropical cyclones, but most rain in Florida is not associated with them.

Imagine though, with as much rain as we have been getting in the Tampa Bay area. If we got a tropical cyclone with 10 inch rain amounts we would get some serious urban flooding.

1059. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not anything. But most everything that's been brought up as "contrary" has been dismissed. It's not "ridicule"; it's just how science works.


That is a false statement. If there were no holes in the AGW theory, it would be a theroy.

Again, speaking a of who is brow beating who;

The broadcasting system that ignored information about "ClimateGate" before it went public is now being told to pay less attention to scientists who question global warming.

The BBC Trust wants the British Broadcasting Company to instead pay more attention to those who affirm catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, citing scientific consensus that global warming is caused by human activity.

Link
1060. ncstorm
Is anyone else seeing back to back storms for the east coast? I sense a Bertha and Fran collabo for someone this year..from my experience getting back to back hurricanes isnt good..leaves to more property damage with the ground being saturated from the first tropical storm then the second one comes in with the final kick in the teeth knocking over trees and taking out power poles..I dont know how many people on the blog have experience this set up but it aint pretty at all..
Quoting bappit:

You have to be able to tell a request for information apart from a request for reassurance--and all the other possibilities. Not everything posed as a question actually is a question. For instance, consider the apparent question "Are you hungry?" It often is a subtle statement: "I am hungry." Then you get to the pseudo-questions posed by blog auteurs who only want to win an argument and will say anything to just look like they are winning. A tell-tale sign is anyone quoting Ronald Reagan on a weather blog.


So, you have to be able to tell what a woman is thinking to be able to answer her with the correct response?

It reminds me of a story:

A guy was shuffling along the west coast on the beach when he kicks up this strange looking item. He can't tell what it is so he starts wiping the sand and dirt off of it. It suddenly vibrates and smoke pops out of it and a magic genie appears!
The man says "Wow! A magic genie! So do I get 3 wishes of anything I want?
The genie replies: "Of course, but there are some limitations and you should be considerate with your wishes, it is not nice to wish harm on others.."
The man says, "Well of course I want what all men want: riches and fame and a big house in Malibu"
The genie replies: "Your wish is my command, DONE!"
The genie says you have one wish left, I advise you to use wisdom in your choice.
The man says, "Yeah, I see. But you know, I have always wanted to visit Hawaii and I am afraid of travel by boat or airplane. Hmmm. I know, I wish that there was a bridge from California to Hawaii!"
The genie gives him a look and the man says "What?" is that a bad wish?"
"Not necessarily, but think of the logistics the tons and tons of concrete and steel you would be dumping in the ocean to great depths and the sea life you would disrupt, I am able to grant your wish, but perhaps there is something less stupendous that would not be so disruptive of the planet?"
The man thinks for awhile and finally his eyes light up. "I know! I have got it! I have always wanted to know what makes women tick! Why they cry when they should be laughing why they do some of the crazy things they do, why they do such strange things to their bodies and why they say one thing and mean another! So my wish is that I could know the mind of women!"
The genie looks at him and slowly begins: "So.....do you want that bridge 2 lane or 4 lane?"
Quoting Grothar:
Well, I finished my new blog today. I hope Dr. Masters or Angela don't come by and embarrass me by saying its all wrong. :)

Good update Grothar, i tend to agree with u although i think the first storm will likely recurve well away from the Eastern Seaboard!! Too early to tell though u may well be correct!!! Thanks for your insight!!!
Quoting ncstorm:
Is anyone else seeing back to back storms for the east coast? I sense a Bertha and Fran collabo for someone this year..from my experience getting back to back hurricanes isnt good..leaves to more property damage with the ground being saturated from the first tropical storm then the second one comes in with the final kick in the teeth knocking over trees and taking out power poles..I dont know how many people on the blog have experience this set up but it aint pretty at all..
Kinda like Dennis and Floyd scenario?
1064. txjac
Ha-ha ...we arent that hard to figure out Kkid..
Maybe you guys are just hanging out with the wrong kind of women? lol
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah man! And look at NOAA's facts on Florida weather, most of Florida's rain historically does not come from tropical cyclones. A lot of our weather is related to the tropics, and may be tropical in nature thanks to a very warm atmospheric air column all the way up and high moisture, but not actual tropical cyclones.

Obviously, we have gotten very serious flooding rains from tropical cyclones, but most rain in Florida is not associated with them.

Imagine though, with as much rain as we have been getting in the Tampa Bay area. If we got a tropical cyclone with 10 inch rain amounts we would get some serious urban flooding.



Then the jet skis come out along Bay Shore ...
1066. ncstorm
Quoting overwash12:
Kinda like Dennis and Floyd scenario?


Yep, them too..and unfortunately, I see the Bahamas getting slammed this year..most of those scenarios brought those hurricanes right up through them as well
1067. MahFL
Quoting Patrap:
I know what Lincoln did when His wife asked,,twas on the TV in da HD.



"Can honest Abe be too honest?"....lol, cracks me up everytime I see it.
Quoting CJ5:


That is a false statement. If there were no holes in the AGW theory, it would be a theroy.

Again, speaking a of who is brow beating who;

The broadcasting system that ignored information about "ClimateGate" before it went public is now being told to pay less attention to scientists who question global warming.

The BBC Trust wants the British Broadcasting Company to instead pay more attention to those who affirm catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, citing scientific consensus that global warming is caused by human activity.

Link

Here's what happened: a large group of climate change "skeptics" filed official complaints with the BBC Trust, stating that there wasn't enough anti-AGW coverage on the Beeb. Since the BBC's mission is to maintain truth and accuracy in everything, the Trust did a very thorough investigation, and--much to the dismay of those "skeptics" who'd filed those complaints--announced that, given the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change, the network had been giving too much air time to the "skeptical" side of the debate.

The thing is, not all "data" are equal. If 999 scientists are convinced that the earth is spherical, while a lone quack swears that it is most definitely flat, who is being served by giving that flat-earther's demonstrably false opinion the same amount of air time as those scientists? Hint: it's not the BBC-supporting public.
St. Petersburg FL got 2.23 inches in less than 25 minutes lol
1070. Buhdog
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nope. a gulf storm most likely will not be developing anytime soon. All this heavy rain coming off the gulf is thanks to deep tropical moisture combined with a weak upper trough ans weak disturbances sliding along the trough helping to aid the already moist, unstable air mass.

Just imagine how heavy these storms would be if we had strong upper disturbances sweeping through...

Anyway though, all the energy aiding storm development is from a mid-latitude upper trough. This type of weather situation is not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.


you are most likely right, In my experience of living down here that regardless of what triggers it...multiple days of backwards flow can spark a small disturbance out there. With the waters out so hot it could happen quickly if the dynamics were there...but i guess they are not! :)
Quoting marknmelb:


Then the jet skis come out along Bay Shore ...


hahaha my street is flooded right now, I can practically take a jet ski down it myself, watch for pics, I will try and post pictures of my flooded street later.
I am amazed that the person who writes the weather descrptions and prognostications does not know the difference in the words *eastward* and *westward*.

Twice this past week, a storm has been moving into our area FROM the west (naturally) yet the the copy writer states that the storms --"are moving westward".
It is a black mark on weather reportage and on the Wunderground.com that this person seemingly has the opposite definition for the term *westward* than the rest of the world has.
Quoting Buhdog:


you are most likely right, In my experience of living down here that regardless of what triggers it...multiple days of backwards flow can spark a small disturbance out there. With the waters out so hot it could happen quickly if the dynamics were there...but i guess they are not! :)


Yeah its just not the type of weather situation to support tropical cyclone development. Personally, I will take massive amounts of heavy storms any day without having to worry about hurricanes, its exciting but at least I know nobody is getting hurt :)
Quoting danny1234:
I am amazed that the person who writes the weather descrptions and prognostications does not know the difference in the words *eastward* and *westward*.

Twice this past week, a storm has been moving into our area FROM the west (naturally) yet the the copy writer states that the storms --"are moving westward".
It is a black mark on weather reportage and on the Wunderground.com that this person seemingly has the opposite definition for the term *westward* than the rest of the world has.


Leave people alone, I'm sure someone just made a mistake more than once and didn't realize how they were wording it.

I make mistakes like that myself sometimes, yet I know for sure which way is westward and eastward of course.
Earls models looked really familiar when that storm was in the spot 92L was at.. Don't call it a fish yet. Models like to go overboard when they first start developing. Models may push west in time, just like they did with Earl.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Here's what happened: a large group of climate change "skeptics" filed official complaints with the BBC Trust, stating that there wasn't enough anti-AGW coverage on the Beeb. Since the BBC's mission is to maintain truth and accuracy in everything, the Trust did a very thorough investigation, and--much to the dismay of those "skeptics" who'd filed those complaints--announced that, given the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change, the network had been giving too much air time to the "skeptical" side of the debate.

The thing is, not all "data" are equal. If 999 scientists are convinced that the earth is spherical, while a lone quack swears that it is most definitely flat, who is being served by giving that flat-earther's demonstrably false opinion the same amount of air time as those scientists?

Well it wouldn't be the first time that has occurred. If I recall, which side was the black sheep back in the late 1970's when the overwhelming majority of scientists were predicting the Earth was upon the verge of the next ice age? Answer: the scientists who dismissed that theory.

And look where we are at now. Indeed, the truth won out, since it is clear we do not have vast glacier encroaching upon our prairies, farms, and cities.

Only difference this time is that there are thousands of climatologists who do not believe Earth's recent warming trend is the result of AGW.

Not that any of that should matter. In the end, the truth will always win out, no matter what happens.
EURO shows my point so clearly :)
00Z EURO
Quoting Neapolitan:

Here's what happened: a large group of climate change "skeptics" filed official complaints with the BBC Trust, stating that there wasn't enough anti-AGW coverage on the Beeb. Since the BBC's mission is to maintain truth and accuracy in everything, the Trust did a very thorough investigation, and--much to the dismay of those "skeptics" who'd filed those complaints--announced that, given the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change, the network had been giving too much air time to the "skeptical" side of the debate.

The thing is, not all "data" are equal. If 999 scientists are convinced that the earth is spherical, while a lone quack swears that it is most definitely flat, who is being served by giving that flat-earther's demonstrably false opinion the same amount of air time as those scientists? Hint: it's not the BBC-supporting public.


Complete waste of time. If this summer did not convince a climate skeptic nothing will. They are completely beyond the appeal of reason.
1080. Matt74
Quoting hydrus:
I agree, but dont we get a lot of westward moving storms during the La-Nina also?
That's what everyone has been saying. Hasn't happened. Not wishing anything comes, just sayin.
1082. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:

..... If 999 scientists are convinced that the earth is spherical, while a lone quack swears that it is most definitely flat, who is being served by giving that flat-earther's demonstrably false opinion the same amount of air time as those scientists? Hint: it's not the BBC-supporting public.



Nice spin! The problem you have, or wish you didn't have, is that there is not one lone voice but many. The BBC has a long history of over-reporting the AGW theory, not the opposite.

Here is the problem from my standpoint. The AGW crowd are hell bent on making thier theory fact. While there is good evidience to support thier claims, there is also evidience that doesn't support thier theory. Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda. It is much like the believers and the atheists. The atheists don't want the believers ramming religion down thier throats at every turn. The believers think they are right and feel they can prove it beyond doubt. However, they cannot as it requires a little bit of faith to believe. The same is true for the AGW crowd. They claim they can prove thier theory without doubt, but they cannot. It still requires a little bit of faith. The scandles, missing science, misleading hypothesis and people like Al Gore keep people from having any faith, as it should.
since emily was nearby e cen fl. has seen more than its share of rain. got to be a bull to push the mower threw the grass.
Wow! Another jason handle and another to ignore...everyone do the same.
Quoting CJ5:



Nice spin! The problem you have, or wish you didn't have, is that there is not one lone voice but many. The BBC has a long history of over-reporting the AGW theory, not the opposite.

Here is the problem from my standpoint. The AGW crowd are hell bent on making thier theory fact. While there is good evidience to support thier claims, there is also evidience that doesn't support thier theory. Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda. It is much like the believers and the atheists. The atheists don't want the believers ramming religion down thier throats at every turn. The believers think they are right and feel they can prove it beyond doubt. However, they cannot as it requires a little bit of faith to believe. The same is true for the AGW crowd. They claim they can prove thier theory without doubt, but they cannot. It still requires a little bit of faith. The scandles, missing science, misleading hypothesis and people like Al Gore keep people from having any faith, as it should.

http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics
1086. ncstorm
Quoting reedzone:
Earls models looked really familiar when that storm was in the spot 92L was at.. Don't call it a fish yet. Models like to go overboard when they first start developing. Models may push west in time, just like they did with Earl.


very touch and go with Earl from the NHC..

EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT. FOR THE NEXT 36 OR
SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
CENTER OFFSHORE. THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Quoting ncstorm:
Is anyone else seeing back to back storms for the east coast? I sense a Bertha and Fran collabo for someone this year..from my experience getting back to back hurricanes isnt good..leaves to more property damage with the ground being saturated from the first tropical storm then the second one comes in with the final kick in the teeth knocking over trees and taking out power poles..I dont know how many people on the blog have experience this set up but it aint pretty at all..



i dont know what you are looking at im seeing quite the opposite no storms for the east coast at least not in the next 3 weeks...
Quoting islander101010:
since emily was nearby e cen fl. has seen more than its share of rain. got to be a bull to push the mower threw the grass.


Buy a self-propelled. Work smarter, not harder.
1089. CJ5
Quoting FloridaPA:


Complete waste of time. If this summer did not convince a climate skeptic nothing will. They are completely beyond the appeal of reason.


Now that is funny. I suspect you mean climate change and not AGW. Sure, it has been hot this summer and though many believe the climate may be changing, a hot summer doesn't confirm it. Nor does a few hot summers.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011m:
wow!! invest 92L GOING OUT TO SEA IN DAY 7!!

Dear admin,please block all the accounts with name 'jason' in nick
ITS back invest 92L ITS WILL GO OUT TO SEA.
Quoting CJ5:



Nice spin! The problem you have, or wish you didn't have, is that there is not one lone voice but many. The BBC has a long history of over-reporting the AGW theory, not the opposite.

Here is the problem from my standpoint. The AGW crowd are hell bent on making thier theory fact. While there is good evidience to support thier claims, there is also evidience that doesn't support thier theory. Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda. It is much like the believers and the atheists. The atheists don't want the believers ramming religion down thier throats at every turn. The believers think they are right and feel they can prove it beyond doubt. However, they cannot as it requires a little bit of faith to believe. The same is true for the AGW crowd. They claim they can prove thier theory without doubt, but they cannot. It still requires a little bit of faith. The scandles, missing science, misleading hypothesis and people like Al Gore keep people from having any faith, as it should.


Very well put
Quoting CJ5:



Nice spin! ...Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda.
nice honesty!! finally someone recognizing they ignore facts to pursue an anti-agenda... or is that also an agenda.

therein lies the difference... facts speak to a warming globe and man's contribution to it, whereas denial of facts stems from a belief that the 'fact-drivers' are agenda driven... so who are the believers here??? you might want to put on your 'supporting evidence' gloves for this round ;)
1094. CJ5
Quoting FloridaPA:

http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics



Better reading...

Link
Quoting reedzone:
EURO shows my point so clearly :)
00Z EURO
well well well strum a tune on that!
Quoting FloridaPA:


Complete waste of time. If this summer did not convince a climate skeptic nothing will. They are completely beyond the appeal of reason.

I could backtrack in time 30 years or so when Jackson Browne was topping the music charts in the winter of 1979. Boy, do midwesterners remember that winter. It was brutal, followed by numerous records being smashed. The people said the same thing: "What is going on with our climate"?

If one chooses to point to a specific season (this summer) in a specific geographic location (the continental U.S.) upon a globe that doesn't adhere to modern-day calendar climate normals, then two can play that game.

Two can play that game. The only problem with that is it doesn't not properly address global trends, and does not do a thing to make a case that carbon emission are responsible for altering Earth's climate.
Quoting CJ5:


Now that is funny. I suspect you mean climate change and not AGW. Sure, it has been hot this summer and though many believe the climate may be changing, a hot summer doesn't confirm it. Nor does a few hot summers.


Sorry for not having the time to waste on this, but I already wasted enough of my life on creationists.
You cannot be convinced. evidence means nothing to you. You have closed off most of your brain.
Goodbye!
Quoting islander101010:
well well well strum a tune on that!


It's an observation, not a wishcast.. A wishcast is calling it a fish storm right away.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Well it wouldn't be the first time that has occurred. If I recall, which side was the black sheep back in the late 1970's when the overwhelming majority of scientists were predicting the Earth was upon the verge of the next ice age? Answer: the scientists who dismissed that theory.

And look where we are at now. Indeed, the truth won out, since it is clear we do not have vast glacier encroaching upon our prairies, farms, and cities.

Only difference this time is that there are thousands of climatologists who do not believe Earth's recent warming trend is the result of AGW.

Not that any of that should matter. In the end, the truth will always win out, no matter what happens.

Of course there was nowhere near an "overwhelming majority" of scientists predicting an ice age in the 1970s. There wasn't even a simple majority. In fact, there was but a small minority. That's one of those legends that "skeptics" tell and re-tell themselves to feel better. But it's far from the truth.

It's also not true that "there are thousands of climatologists who do not believe Earth's recent warming trend is the result of AGW". The fact of the matter is, 97% of all climate scientists are convinced. That should be enough for those who aren't climate scientists, or, indeed, scientists at all.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?
HAHAHAHA!! u are so funny!!
Quoting FloridaPA:


Sorry for not having the time to waste on this, but I already wasted enough of my life on creationists.
You cannot be convinced. evidence means nothing to you. You have closed off most of your brain.
Goodbye!
this statement pretty much sums up the journalistic integrity of this author: "the Scientific Method is being sacrificed on the altar of Climate Astrology."

..eh, no agenda hidden in that subtext :P
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Dear admin,please block all the accounts with name 'jason' in nick



what gives you the right to tell admin to ban jason..he is entitled to his opinion and i for one agree with him about 92L going out to sea...the writing is on the wall the deep trof thats about to come down will shuffle 92L out to sea...no way this gets within 500 miles of the east coast...if you know how to read maps then you can see its going out to sea...92L DOES NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO HIT THE US EAST COAST..
Quoting Minnemike:
nice honesty!! finally someone recognizing they ignore facts to pursue an anti-agenda... or is that also an agenda.

therein lies the difference... facts speak to a warming globe and man's contribution to it, whereas denial of facts stems from a belief that the 'fact-drivers' are agenda driven... so who are the believers here??? you might want to put on your 'supporting evidence' gloves for this round ;)

Does your version of round two include the word "Poof"?

Experience tells me that when one pops out of the woodwork to tell another "poof", they are basically subtly admitting their inability to hold a discussion with others.
Willing to bet on that burst lol lol
Quoting CJ5:



Nice spin! The problem you have, or wish you didn't have, is that there is not one lone voice but many. The BBC has a long history of over-reporting the AGW theory, not the opposite.

Here is the problem from my standpoint. The AGW crowd are hell bent on making thier theory fact. While there is good evidience to support thier claims, there is also evidience that doesn't support thier theory. Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda. It is much like the believers and the atheists. The atheists don't want the believers ramming religion down thier throats at every turn. The believers think they are right and feel they can prove it beyond doubt. However, they cannot as it requires a little bit of faith to believe. The same is true for the AGW crowd. They claim they can prove thier theory without doubt, but they cannot. It still requires a little bit of faith. The scandles, missing science, misleading hypothesis and people like Al Gore keep people from having any faith, as it should.


That does depend on who you ask. However, the rest of the post is pretty good - most sides have an agenda. The way of the world. Some agendas have more facts behind them than others, though.
Uhh Hellooo??? It's August, not October.. no strong trough.. Models will back west just like they did with Earl. GFS is glorious in strengthening troughs, as well as some of the BAMM models.. Emily didn't recurve well east of the islands.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Dear admin,please block all the accounts with name 'jason' in nick

+100
Quoting Neapolitan:

Of course there was nowhere near an "overwhelming majority" of scientists predicting an ice age in the 1970s. There wasn't even a simple majority. In fact, there was but a small minority. That's one of those legends that "skeptics" tell and re-tell themselves to feel better. But it's far from the truth.

It's also not true that "there are thousands of climatologists who do not believe Earth's recent warming trend is the result of AGW". The fact of the matter is, 97% of all climate scientists are convinced. That should be enough for those who aren't climate scientists, or, indeed, scientists at all.

Thank you for making my point for me. The fact the a simply majority, a plurity, a majority, or whatever, should not be a driving force that magically turns a theory into a fact. As we learned this lesson decades ago.

Be careful, as some folks out there are prone to that type of behavior.
LOOK AT SAL!!!THESE OTHER JASONS IMPOSTERS
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?


I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
Lots of low level clouds flying over & fast. Lotta water in the air. Not enough to fog the windows though.
Quoting CJ5:



Nice spin! The problem you have, or wish you didn't have, is that there is not one lone voice but many. The BBC has a long history of over-reporting the AGW theory, not the opposite.

Here is the problem from my standpoint. The AGW crowd are hell bent on making thier theory fact. While there is good evidience to support thier claims, there is also evidience that doesn't support thier theory. Most AGW deniers see the agenda. They often look past facts because of the agenda. It is much like the believers and the atheists. The atheists don't want the believers ramming religion down thier throats at every turn. The believers think they are right and feel they can prove it beyond doubt. However, they cannot as it requires a little bit of faith to believe. The same is true for the AGW crowd. They claim they can prove thier theory without doubt, but they cannot. It still requires a little bit of faith. The scandles, missing science, misleading hypothesis and people like Al Gore keep people from having any faith, as it should.

Among the places your analogy falls far short is in comparing scientific support of AGWT with religious belief. Religion is based on faith: believing things that have and can never be seen. But empirical science is based on observed facts, open debate, and honest research--and all of those currently point to a planet that is rapidly warming due to the unimpeded release of CO2.

We humans pump 40 trillion liters of carbon dioxide into the environment each and ever day. Believing that that much of anything won't have a negative impact requires a real leap of faith, if you ask me.
Quoting reedzone:
Uhh Hellooo??? It's August, not October.. no strong trough.. Models will back west just like they did with Earl. GFS is glorious in strengthening troughs, as well as some of the BAMM models.. Emily didn't recurve well east of the islands.


where you been man trofs have been coming down all season long..i seen 750mb trofs come down in august so dont tell me the trofs cant be strong..like i said 92L is going out to sea and not just that trof another trof is coming down right behind it 3 days later which is up in canada now...i cant see anything beig a threat to the east coast for at least 3 weeks...
1120. ncstorm
Quoting cloudburst2011:



i dont know what you are looking at im seeing quite the opposite no storms for the east coast at least not in the next 3 weeks...


first you were west with Emily and now you calling everything that forms now will be east..until it passes to the east of me, I dont count anything out..
1121. jasblt
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 10th, with Video

Thanks Levi
Quoting Neapolitan:

Among the places your analogy falls far short is in comparing scientific support of AGWT with religious belief. Religion is based on faith: believing things that have and can never be seen. But empirical science is based on observed facts, open debate, and honest research--and all of those currently point to a planet that is rapidly warming due to the unimpeded release of CO2.

We humans pump 40 trillion liters of carbon dioxide into the environment each and ever day. Believing that that much of anything won't have a negative impact requires a real leap of faith, if you ask me.

Exponentially greater amounts of C02 and significantly faster rates of C02 growth in the last 400 years of Earth's existence can be directly attributed to volcanic activity--natural forces that have absolutely nothing to do with man-made activities.

What does that tell you?
I know what I see...I'm more expirence than you.lol
1126. j0nd03
Is that a spin up at the end of the 12z NAM sw of FL? Wonder where that will go...
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

yea very foul language


Ever since the beginning of hurricane season my ignore list has tripled. Someone has got to get rid of those trolls, and the majority of my ignore list is all the jason handles.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Comment 1095 thanks another one to add to my ignore list.

Ignoring him has less sense than asking admin for ignoring asks for creating accounts with 'jason' in nick IMO.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ever since the beginning of hurricane season my ignore list has tripled. Someone has got to get rid of those trolls, and the majority of my ignore list is all the jason handles.

Same here
1131. P451
New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.

Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA's Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA's Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.

"The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show," Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. "There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans."

In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.

Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is "not much"). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.

The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth's atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth's atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.

When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a "huge discrepancy" between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News.


Link
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Same here


I'm going to contact admin to do something about this Jason guy.
Ugh enough fighting about GW, the earth has warmed, oh well, nature does what it wants.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 10th, with Video


Great tidbit Levi!
James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News.

Pretty sure that the Heartland Institute have very little to do with science.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011m:
Levi32 say fish storm of invest 92L on his video



well thats not to hard to figure out...the writing is on the wall...
1140. P451
Quoting P451:
New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.

Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA's Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA's Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.

"The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show," Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. "There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans."

In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.

Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is "not much"). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.

The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth's atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth's atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.

When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a "huge discrepancy" between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News.


Link


Is this the same Heartland Institute that said cigarette smoke is okey dokey? You betcha - of course, that was after they got millions from Phillip Morris
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011m:
Levi32 say fish storm of invest 92L on his video


Not exactly, says it's likely but not a definite and that the East coast could be at risk. With a storm that far East it's way to early to make a call about where it might or might not go.
1143. Levi32
Trouble-maker #2 coming off of Africa right now behind 92L.

Quoting tropicfreak:


Ever since the beginning of hurricane season my ignore list has tripled. Someone has got to get rid of those trolls, and the majority of my ignore list is all the jason handles.

Mine too. And looks like I will be adding a couple more.
Quoting 69Viking:


Not exactly, says it's likely but not a definite and that the East coast could be at risk. With a storm that far East it's way to early to make a call about where it might or might not go.



its already way to north now it will have no problems in recurving out to sea...
great update always Levi. so, the 8-15 day period of the High setting up you talked about, what do you see after that?

I mean from about mid August till end of September, do you see a consistent strong ridge/Bermuda High setting up in the WATL steering storms toward the SE CONUS?

Thanks!
1147. P451



Over the last 400,000 years the Earth's climate has been unstable, with very significant temperature changes, going from a warm climate to an ice age in as rapidly as a few decades. These rapid changes suggest that climate may be quite sensitive to internal or external climate forcings and feedbacks. As can be seen from the blue curve, temperatures have been less variable during the last 10 000 years. Based on the incomplete evidence available, it is unlikely that global mean temperatures have varied by more than 1°C in a century during this period. The information presented on this graph indicates a strong correlation between carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and temperature. A possible scenario: anthropogenic emissions of GHGs could bring the climate to a state where it reverts to the highly unstable climate of the pre-ice age period. Rather than a linear evolution, the climate follows a non-linear path with sudden and dramatic surprises when GHG levels reach an as-yet unknown trigger point.

"Writing on the wall" Yep, big ridge, weak trough.. should easily pass Bermuda :)
Quoting cloudburst2011:



its already way to north now it will have no problems in recurving out to sea...


Yes Mr. Know It All, you have your opinion and I have mine. Nothing in the Tropics is definite until it happens so people should always keep an eye on things and never let their guard down.
1150. kwgirl
Quoting tropicfreak:


I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
You know you can ignore the person and don't open any e-mail from them. Simple solution. BTW Good Morning everyone:)
the tropical wave back of invest 92L need to be watch!
I don't ever want to hear about a PRO-AGW activist ever dying from Hypothermia in the winter,now that would be IRONIC!!!!
No problems ehhh lol...I got not problems placing u away as well.
1115. tropicfreak 3:04 PM GMT on August 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?



I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
Quoting tropicfreak:


I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?

You should forward them to admin.
Quoting 69Viking:


Not exactly, says it's likely but not a definite and that the East coast could be at risk. With a storm that far East it's way to early to make a call about where it might or might not go.


+10 .. Exactly, it's too early to tell and plus.. Remember Hurricane Earl last year.. Models had Earl going near Bermuda to the east... Then the shifts occured.
Quoting kwgirl:
You know you can ignore the person and don't open any e-mail from them. Simple solution. BTW Good Morning everyone:)


He didn't really write anything, he wrote that nasty comment in the title, and when I look at NEW MAIL, how would I know that's Jason or not.
Quoting AussieStorm:
1115. tropicfreak 3:04 PM GMT on August 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?



I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
You should forward them to admin.



Thanks!
Hey bloggers I am getting to the point where I want to have Levi32 as our primary tropical weather blogger. I am getting sick of all the trolling on here and it is not fair to the people on here like myself who want to learn about tropical weather. Levi is extremely dedicated to tropical meteorology and I want to share my appreciation with him without having to worry about any stupidity from people like Jason.
1159. Levi32
Quoting kshipre1:
great update always Levi. so, the 8-15 day period of the High setting up you talked about, what do you see after that?

I mean from about mid August till end of September, do you see a consistent strong ridge/Bermuda High setting up in the WATL steering storms toward the SE CONUS?

Thanks!


Forecasting such patterns out to 4 weeks is very difficult. However, we have seen so far this season that west Atlantic troughs haven't liked to hang around too long before leaving, and as a result, we have already had one landfall on the U.S. and another storm that got within 100 miles of the coast. If the SE Canada ridging is finally showing up as the ensembles are currently forecasting, then the pattern may finally be going with the analogs that foretold this. If it is, then the dangerous pattern that we warned about before the season began may be ready to entrench itself, but we will just have to see. We're going to deal with the pattern on a storm-by-storm basis, as always. The average pattern over a few weeks does not necessarily mean that a random hurricane will encounter that same pattern on a daily time scale.
Quoting reedzone:
"Writing on the wall" Yep, big ridge, weak trough.. should easily pass Bermuda :)


Not only are the troughs week they are pretty far North hanging out in Canada and then exiting off to the NE pretty quick allowing the High to build back in. 92L might start to go North but then could easily get pushed back West into the East coast, way to early right now to call it a fish storm IMO.
Vorticity with 92L still seems elongated, although it does have quite a nice spin with it and is showing up at the 500mb levels as well.

Link

TPW loops show a large moisture envelope that is running into a large pocket of dry air.

1162. Matt74
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.
Quoting reedzone:


+10 .. Exactly, it's too early to tell and plus.. Remember Hurricane Earl last year.. Models had Earl going near Bermuda to the east... Then the shifts occured.



lol this is not earl man you have and all together different conditions out there...im not going to argue the point its mute...we will just see what happens...
1164. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 10th, with Video
Good Info, thanks Levi.
1165. P451
Early:




Late (GFS Ensembles):





Yesterday/Emily:

Levi32 saying invest 92L WILL GO OUT TO SEA!!
Quoting kwgirl:
You know you can ignore the person and don't open any e-mail from them. Simple solution. BTW Good Morning everyone:)

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.

Its all the same person who is blatantly trying to evade ignore lists.
Quoting P451:
Early:




Late (GFS Ensembles):





Yesterday/Emily:



Looks a heck alot like Earls first runs, don't it? :P

Sorry but not calling this a fish until I see a recurve. The pattern shows blocking, and weak troughs..

Off to work, won't be back till tonight, have a nice day P451 and everyone..
Quoting troy1993:
Hey bloggers I am getting to the point where I want to have Levi32 as our primary tropical weather blogger. I am getting sick of all the trolling on here and it is not fair to the people on here like myself who want to learn about tropical weather. Levi is extremely dedicated to tropical meteorology and I want to share my appreciation with him without having to worry about any stupidity from people like Jason.


Then if I were you I'd start using the ignore feature to filter on the ones who are starting the trouble. I'm with you, I just want to read the opinions of people who have a good understanding of the tropics and share my opinions with them and learn. The other crap needs to go.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Be ready for another strike from Jason, he just made another handle.
u are 100% right my friend
Believe it or not I think I have 25 or more jason handles geez and possibly climbing.
ok, thanks Levi. man, I tell ya, you are amazing. Your future in meteorology is super bright. you belong at the NHC man!

you're a smart guy!
Quoting jeffs713:

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.


That's what you always should do... I have the same thoughts about this jason problem. I used to like the maps he posted but he went "off the deep end" recently, or his imitator did.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Believe it or not I think I have 25 or more jason handles geez and possibly climbing.

I believe it. He's almost as bad as a few of our other notorious people on here, as far as being irritating goes.
1178. P451
Since someone will wonder...

The outlier:



NGX2: NOGAPS [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
First of all I am not sold on AGW. I am however sold on Anthropogenic Climate change. Yes temperatures have gotten warmer in the northern hemisphere, however, there are places in the southern hemisphere that have actually gotten much cooler.

Also anyone who is arguing against AGW please don't use the omg it's such a cold winter. The dynamics of a possible AGW change atmospheric conditions much more than just temperature it leads to more severe weather and that includes worse winter weather include it being colder.


For many reasons I believe in climate change in general more than global warming. The climate has continually changed in the world for billions of years and we only have 150 years of exact data and only 60 years of accurate worldwide data since satellites have given us accurate worldwide readings.

My take is to practice the precautionary principle. Ok although I don't believe in global warming per se I do believe we should be moving to greener renewable energy that doesn't pollute our environment.


Have a good day and can we please get back to talking about the tropics
Quoting jeffs713:

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.


I'm currently contacting admin about the situation with Jason.
Quoting 69Viking:


Not only are the troughs week they are pretty far North hanging out in Canada and then exiting off to the NE pretty quick allowing the High to build back in. 92L might start to go North but then could easily get pushed back West into the East coast, way to early right now to call it a fish storm IMO.



yes the trofs are pretty far north thats why the A/B high has been pushed south because of the trofs..these trofs like the last one came very far south...as time goes on they will be coming further south and keeping the A/B high very far south setting up a pattern for the caribbean to get very busy ..also 92 L is going to have to fight lots of dry air and probably will be sucked dry before it reaches 50 west...so 92L is going to have a tough road ahead so i would not start talking about a hurricane from this...its going to be another emily..
1183. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Forecasting such patterns out to 4 weeks is very difficult. However, we have seen so far this season that west Atlantic troughs haven't liked to hang around too long before leaving, and as a result, we have already had one landfall on the U.S. and another storm that got within 100 miles of the coast. If the SE Canada ridging is finally showing up as the ensembles are currently forecasting, then the pattern may finally be going with the analogs that foretold this. If it is, then the dangerous pattern that we warned about before the season began may be ready to entrench itself, but we will just have to see. We're going to deal with the pattern on a storm-by-storm basis, as always. The average pattern over a few weeks does not necessarily mean that a random hurricane will encounter that same pattern on a daily time scale.
Do Cape Verde TCs generally have to form further S or stay weak, to make it into the GOM?
1184. Levi32
GFS still shows a cooler shot for the central-eastern U.S. during the next two weeks. Such event is good news for the folks that are tired of the heat wave, but it can also set off the hurricane season. We may see that manifested by our 1-2 wave punch that is beginning its journey across the Atlantic.

Quoting reedzone:
Uhh Hellooo??? It's August, not October.. no strong trough.. Models will back west just like they did with Earl. GFS is glorious in strengthening troughs, as well as some of the BAMM models.. Emily didn't recurve well east of the islands.
,bamm parameters dont take into account the stregth of troughs and highs it uses the beta affect and differentbstregth of storms i do believe
1186. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Do Cape Verde TCs generally have to form further S or stay weak, to make it into the GOM?


Yes. In fact, no storm that formed within 50 miles of 92L's current coordinates ever made it into the Gulf of Mexico. Of course 92L is not a storm yet, but the point is still fairly clear.
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.


this is a case of Jason getting hacked. The real Jason always posts his pics. Also to the rest of you out there ... this is a blog not a club...you don't get to chose your members. blog and let blog.
1188. P451
Quoting reedzone:


Looks a heck alot like Earls first runs, don't it? :P

Sorry but not calling this a fish until I see a recurve. The pattern shows blocking, and weak troughs..

Off to work, won't be back till tonight, have a nice day P451 and everyone..


It's early in the game for forecasting anything with 92L.
1189. Matt74
Quoting jeffs713:

Its all the same person who is blatantly trying to evade ignore lists.
Thanks. I thought i remembered some guys on here saying he was "slow" mentaly, but i guess thats not the case. H was just playing the part. Thanks for the info and i won't mention him anymore.
1190. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
,bamm parameters dont take into account the stregth of troughs and highs it uses the beta affect and differentbstregth of storms i do believe


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!
1192. kwgirl
Quoting jeffs713:

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.
I understand what everyone is saying. Hopefully Admin's IT department can identify the IP address and totally block it. Not that I know how to do that!LOL
Just sent the message to the admin!!
Quoting oreodogsghost:


Is this the same Heartland Institute that said cigarette smoke is okey dokey? You betcha - of course, that was after they got millions from Phillip Morris



Correct and guess who's paying em in Goldified Oil!!!
1196. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:
GFS still shows a cooler shot for the central-eastern U.S. during the next two weeks. Such event is good news for the folks that are tired of the heat wave, but it can also set off the hurricane season. We may see that manifested by our 1-2 wave punch that is beginning its journey across the Atlantic.



Yes the humidity has left the eastern US..we are in the 90's here today but low humidity..I will take that anyday compared to what we have been experiencing..
92L is still about a week away from any landfall in the U.S. We all know how large the errors are for a five day forecast of a tropical cyclone, but now extrapolate those errors out to at least seven days and add on top of that this isn't even a tropical cyclone yet. Way too early to get worked up about such a long range forecast, and just remember Bermuda is out there too.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Just sent the message to the admin!!
i send you two more message
1199. 7544
morning everyone is that exemily making a turn back to the west in the north alt please say it aint so
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
Levi have you seen the video by Michael Brennan from NHC talking about the different track guidance they use? I found it very informative, although it did get kind of long at one hour.
1201. Levi32
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!


I assume you are asking about prerequisites. A meteorology major will take you through at least a little bit of just about everything dealing with meteorology. Standard prerequisites include math up through differential equations, and at least two semesters of physics. The programs usually require the usual core humanities and arts requirements as well.
1202. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi have you seen the video by Michael Brennan from NHC talking about the different track guidance they use? I found it very informative, although it did get kind of long at one hour.


No. Link me?
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
,thanks for the clarification mr levi!!!,i love learning about wx...
Most grownups on this blog will just hit the ignore button when someone is trolling, without telling everyone to ignore them or continue to feed the trolls. If you don't like Jason or whoever, just hit the ignore button and go about your business. When you discuss him, you are just helping to create the monster. I personally don't care if Jason has 500 handles, some of his maps are nice to see.
1205. K8eCane
levi thanks for pointing out the patterns. You make them clear and understandable.
Adios everyone, going back to hunting forum land until 92L or something else gets closer, no need to stick around and hear the arguments about out to sea or not out to sea all day when nobody really knows yet!
Good morning everyone.First I would like to say Great job Levi on your tidbit.You always help me understand the patterns.Second WOW last night was so nice,The temps were so cool and a nice breeze.Almost felt like fall of the year.Third:It looks like CV season is getting ready to take off full force.Just an opinion no proof to back it up except the two waves we have out there now that came from Africa.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes the trofs are pretty far north thats why the A/B high has been pushed south because of the trofs..these trofs like the last one came very far south...as time goes on they will be coming further south and keeping the A/B high very far south setting up a pattern for the caribbean to get very busy ..also 92 L is going to have to fight lots of dry air and probably will be sucked dry before it reaches 50 west...so 92L is going to have a tough road ahead so i would not start talking about a hurricane from this...its going to be another emily..



You sound so sure of yourself. One thing about the tropics you need to learn. Always expect the unexpected. Listen to Levi's analysis. You might learn a little bit about not assuring yourself on the track of a storm that hasn't even developed.
For anyone who has an hour of time, I highly recommend watching this video. It talks about each of the models the NHC uses, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and how the NHC uses consensus models in their forecasts.

Link

Just click on the video link on the page to watch.

Also more videos here including Intensity forecasts from the NHC.
new map up!!
cv waves are too close together that and dry air could keep them at bay to around the windwds
Invest 92L and 2nd tropical wave a threat down the road 8/10/11

Blog update! Read for my opinion on the tropics as of right now, I hope you all enjoy!
two tropical wave to watch
1214. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For anyone who has an hour of time, I highly recommend watching this video. It talks about each of the models the NHC uses, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and how the NHC uses consensus models in their forecasts.

Link


Awesome. Thanks :)
1215. cwf1069
Good morning wunderbloggers. Haven't you notice the new impostor yet, because there is one. The real Jason doesn't talk to much and always show maps on it.?
Quoting mcluvincane:



You sound so sure of yourself. One thing about the tropics you need to learn. Always expect the unexpected. Listen to Levi's analysis. You might learn a little bit about not assuring yourself on the track of a storm that hasn't even developed.



i look at the current conditions i dont put my faith in the models...the models have made a laughing stock of some of you guys since the season began...the models are GARBAGE plain and simple...i like levi but i prefer to do my own analysis...i have been doing this for over 20 years and i know all the tricks and surprises that can happen...this trof is a very deep one and we will just see what happens....i know one things for sure the caribbean will have to deal with some major hurricanes this year...also the yucatan and the mexico coast will get there share..i cant see anything hitting the east coast the way the A/B high has set up so far south...it spells trouble for the caribbean not the east coast...more of a westerly pattern...we will just have to wait and see..lots of factors in the equation dry air,shear and trofs...
1217. hcubed
Quoting oreodogsghost:


Is this the same Heartland Institute that said cigarette smoke is okey dokey? You betcha - of course, that was after they got millions from Phillip Morris


Went right past the data to trash the messenger, eh?

"...real-world data from NASA's Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into...computer models..."

True, they could have stated the message without all the "alarmist" labeling, but I thought that empirical science was based on OBSERVED facts.

"...The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by...computer models.

The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than...computer models had predicted.

Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than...computer models have predicted..."

Once again, OBSERVED facts. No matter who reported them.
1218. hydrus
The ECMWF is slow with 92L..
thanks Levi! Yes, am talking about prerequisites and actual courses in the program

is it like a standard 4 year program? Or longer?
Oh Aaaaaaaangela!!! 'bout time for a new entry.....
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.
Quoting outofdablue:


this is a case of Jason getting hacked. The real Jason always posts his pics. Also to the rest of you out there ... this is a blog not a club...you don't get to chose your members. blog and let blog.
This is true. The real Jason is not as bad as the hacker. I am surprised He hasn't been on defending his self. He must have got a bann or something.
1223. Levi32
Quoting kshipre1:
thanks Levi! Yes, am talking about prerequisites and actual courses in the program

is it like a standard 4 year program? Or longer?


4-year Bachelor's, which is standard. You would go to graduate school for a Masters or PhD.
ok, thanks. wow, that's a lot of schooling

reason I ask is because I am contemplating a career and field change.

I have a bachelor's in Corporate Finance and Accounting and am getting my MBA in Accounting

1225. Grothar


AND LINKLink
GREAT tidbit today, Levi. I think I've had a knowledge breakthrough, thanks to you :)
I log in to see what is going on and all I can find is the discussion of the blogging habits of other members and who is liked and not. If one were to add up the column inches dedicated to this vs the weather talk one can easily see that it is the talk about who is and isn't a troll rather than the trolls themselves which are clogging up the blog. Last I checked middle-schoolers were welcome, but this is getting ridiculous. There are + and - buttons. If you like something Levi or whoever says, give them a +. No comment needed. Same thing works the other way. Judging from the totals folks aren't using this feature. Why? Seems simple enough to me. Now I hope this post collects numerous - hits, because it has nothing to do with weather.
Just stopping by while I have internet access.

12z GFS is sending 9XL (African wave) farther south than the 6z run so far.

1230. hydrus
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I log in to see what is going on and all I can find is the discussion of the blogging habits of other members and who is liked and not. If one were to add up the column inches dedicated to this vs the weather talk one can easily see that it is the talk about who is and isn't a troll rather than the trolls themselves which are clogging up the blog. Last I checked middle-schoolers were welcome, but this is getting ridiculous. There are + and - buttons. If you like something Levi or whoever says, give them a +. No comment needed. Same thing works the other way. Judging from the totals folks aren't using this feature. Why? Seems simple enough to me. Now I hope this post collects numerous - hits, because it has nothing to do with weather.


Thankfully schools start back up right about the same time the season really kicks in! In another couple of weeks this blog should be a lot more civil and dedicated to the tropics!
1232. hydrus
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just stopping by while I have internet access.

12z GFS is sending 9XL (African wave) farther south than the 6z run so far.

I noticed that. One model I ran actually showed a WSW movement.
The kids still will have access at lunctime and on their phones ugggghh
1234. cwf1069
92L is moistening the path for the new wave to come and absorbing all the dry air for itself. . It could be very interesting for next weeks to come.
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.
its this invest 92L
1237. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


AND LINKLink
Hello Gro...The waves are looking healthy this afternoon..
1239. laguna2
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever") detailing the unprecedented severity of the current year's drought in Texas, http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2011/08/04/texas-drought- officially-the-worst-ever/

As I noted in a comment yesterday, for central, south and parts of east Texas, the current drought is the fifth year out of the last seven in which extreme to exceptional drought has been predominant.

I grew up along the lower Texas coast, and most of my family still lives there. I NEVER thought I would hope for a hurricane or strong TS, but one has to weigh what is worse. At this point, I think a tropical cyclone (hopefully not a major hurricane) is the lesser of the two evils. So forgive me for wish-casting a GOM storm and SOON!
Quoting 69Viking:


Thankfully schools start back up right about the same time the season really kicks in! In another couple of weeks this blog should be a lot more civil and dedicated to the tropics!
Don't quote the troll (me).
agreed. that along with the pattern shift coming up in the next few weeks
1242. Bielle
Quoting rv1pop:

I would love to comment on your emotional, and IMO irrational judgements, but to do so would probably get me banned. You are blasting MY "theology".
Back to lurking.


No religion, no politics, please.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.
I'm pretty sure they do not dynamically forecast a storm. They are simple statistical models. They have storms reacting to troughs because the follow the steering currents input from the GFS I believe. They do not forecast the dynamic interactions of the storm and its environment though. They just simply assume the storm has a vortex of a certain depth, whether it be shallow, medium, or deep, and have it follow those steering currents throughout the 120 hour forecast.
12z GFS continues to show two systems by 126 hours or so, so far looks pretty similar to the 06z.
1246. hydrus
Quoting cwf1069:
92L is moistening the path for the new wave to come and absorbing all the dry air for itself. . It could be very interesting for next weeks to come.
True..Plus a large moisture field will be moving off the African Continent too..And it is huge..
Quoting Minnemike:
really admin? of all the stuff on here today, #1228 is the one that get's pulled for violating community standards?? seemed like an appropriate entry made at the right time (middle-schoolers taken offensively?).... point being, the blogging tools are highly valuable assets for maintaining blog sanity..
I hope admin didn't pull it and folks knocked it off the blog with - hits. That was the point. Again not weather related. hit -
Quoting Minnemike:
really admin? of all the stuff on here today, #1228 is the one that get's pulled for violating community standards?? seemed like an appropriate entry made at the right time (middle-schoolers taken offensively?).... point being, the blogging tools are highly valuable assets for maintaining blog sanity..

Oh, it's not admin; when enough trolls decide to target a post, they can make that post disappear--one of the aspects of this site that is quite frustrating. Good material from solid posters can be censored by a handful of trolls, while their endless troll-related ramblings sit here forever for all the world to see. It's very disheartening at times. (Try saying something scientific in Dr. Rood's climate change blog, and the same thing will happen when the "skeptics" are out in force.)
1249. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro...The waves are looking healthy this afternoon..


They are looking better than me. At least they have circulation. How you doing, hydrus. Posted some good maps this morning. Still unsure of 92L. But I know pre-soon-to-be-possible-maybe 93L will be the one to watch. Check my blog yet?
The pattern in place right now supports troughs off the east coast by the time 92L gets towards the US, it is very rare to get a storm already as far north as 92L is to strike the USA. Can't say for a fact it won't hit the USA, but based on previous storms in a similar location it doesn't seem too terribly likely IMO.
1251. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It's about time admin cleaned this place up!
When things really start to fire up, the blog will be decontaminated...
1252. 7544
wow look at the fla radar rain rain rain
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I'm pretty sure they do not dynamically forecast a storm. They are simple statistical models. They have storms reacting to troughs because the follow the steering currents input from the GFS I believe. They do not forecast the dynamic interactions of the storm and its environment though. They just simply assume the storm has a vortex of a certain depth, whether it be shallow, medium, or deep, and have it follow those steering currents throughout the 120 hour forecast.


I partially agree with what you are saying. What I get from what Levi posted is the BAMs use the steering from the 0 hour GFS and then follow that static pattern through the run. I contend the steering is dynamically changed throughout the run from the GFS input, but no there is no interaction between the storm and the steering the storm is assumed to stay the same throughout the run.
correct hydrus. things could really get interesting with the CV systems as well as close to home in the western atlantic and GOM.

With the pattern change coming up soon along with already warm SST's and now plenty of moisture especially in the GOM

both basins could get active soon
Through 144 hours 12Z GFS develops Franklin and Gert with a trough digging down for Franklin:



I have overlaid the first five day plots from RaleighWx for the 12Z GFS here for easy comparison.

I also have this done for most of the global models so feel free to check them whenever you wish here.
Quoting troy1993:
Hey bloggers I am getting to the point where I want to have Levi32 as our primary tropical weather blogger. I am getting sick of all the trolling on here and it is not fair to the people on here like myself who want to learn about tropical weather. Levi is extremely dedicated to tropical meteorology and I want to share my appreciation with him without having to worry about any stupidity from people like Jason.
I think reedzone is just as good, if not better but that is my opinion. You shouldn't rely on just one guy either.
1258. MahFL
Quoting 7544:
wow look at the fla radar rain rain rain


Er 3/4 of the state do not have any rain right now, and its bone dry in NE FL with temps of 98 forcast tomorrow and Friday.
I don't know if it's been posted on here yet, but a couple of papers by the UKMET theorising on why upper ocean layers have not seen much warming in the past few years: Link
12z GFS agrees with my thinking that the wave behind 92L is going to have a better chance at becoming a strong tropical cyclone. 92L is going to prime the atmosphere for the wave behind it. The bad part is that it's probably going to come farther west as well.
1261. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


They are looking better than me. At least they have circulation. How you doing, hydrus. Posted some good maps this morning. Still unsure of 92L. But I know pre-soon-to-be-possible-maybe 93L will be the one to watch. Check my blog yet?
Been in and out of the office all day dodging da rain.I will visit now...
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!
Attention to detail! That would help tremendously.
12Z GFS has the trough digging for Franklin lifting out pretty quickly....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS continues to show two systems by 126 hours or so, so far looks pretty similar to the 06z.


Strong hurricane and a tropical storm.

180:
1265. cwf1069
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Through 144 hours 12Z GFS develops Franklin and Gert with a trough digging down for Franklin:



I have overlaid the first five day plots from RaleighWx for the 12Z GFS here for easy comparison.

I also have this done for most of the global models so feel free to check them whenever you wish here.

Is the weakness suppose to be in place for both, Franklin and Gert? or is more plausible that future Gert doesn't make the turn. Thank you in advance
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I partially agree with what you are saying. What I get from what Levi posted is the BAMs use the steering from the 0 hour GFS and then follow that static pattern through the run. I contend the steering is dynamically changed throughout the run from the GFS input, but no there is no interaction between the storm and the steering the storm is assumed to stay the same throughout the run.
Yeah I'm not sure they are run on a static pattern either...
A PICTURE OF INVEST 92l
Quoting cwf1069:

Is the weakness suppose to be in place for both, Franklin and Gert? or is more plausible that future Gert doesn't make the turn. Thank you in advance
Well I can't answer that with any confidence as this is 168 hours out, which is a very inaccurate time frame. But so far it looks like Gert has the better chance to go farther west.
its almost the middle of aug. will the tropics start picking up now??? did i really hear that the number of predicted storms has risen? we have not had too much in way of real tropical activity yet. the storms that have been named so far have been nothing but poofs, why is the tropics having such a hard time this season, and last season? will the high ever push the storms into the gulf or will the be an east coaset year, or out to sea year? tia!
Should lift NW soon:

1271. txjac
Quoting laguna2:
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever") detailing the unprecedented severity of the current year's drought in Texas, http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2011/08/04/texas-drought- officially-the-worst-ever/

As I noted in a comment yesterday, for central, south and parts of east Texas, the current drought is the fifth year out of the last seven in which extreme to exceptional drought has been predominant.

I grew up along the lower Texas coast, and most of my family still lives there. I NEVER thought I would hope for a hurricane or strong TS, but one has to weigh what is worse. At this point, I think a tropical cyclone (hopefully not a major hurricane) is the lesser of the two evils. So forgive me for wish-casting a GOM storm and SOON!



I know what you mean laguna ...we need some help bad in Texas. When I was walking the dog last night I ran across four large water breaks, just pouring out water. The COH water dept has their hands full trying to repair all the broken water mains. At last count there were 537 reported breaks
1272. bappit
Quoting hcubed:


Went right past the data to trash the messenger, eh?

In the case of the Heartland Institute I think that's justified.

Edit: hack, coff. Where's my O2 bottle?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, it's not admin; when enough trolls decide to target a post, they can make that post disappear--one of the aspects of this site that is quite frustrating. Good material from solid posters can be censored by a handful of trolls, while their endless troll-related ramblings sit here forever for all the world to see. It's very disheartening at times. (Try saying something scientific in Dr. Rood's climate change blog, and the same thing will happen when the "skeptics" are out in force.)
interesting... then i bet it was the Levi worshipers ;)
i mean, he's a great contributor, but not the only one.
1274. cwf1069
Good T-storms coming for Miami now after the first hit early in the morning.
Quoting Waltanater:
I think reedzone is just as good, if not better but that is my opinion. You shouldn't rely on just one guy either.
you should not rely on anyone While the data presented on this blog should be correct, the data feed is not consistent enough to provide all of the data all of the time. More importantly, Your local National Weather Service office and/or NOAA weather radio is where you should get your important severe weather information. Use this blog for your enjoyment, but do not use it when making serious decisions. The information on this blog is gathered from other sources for information purposes only and is not intended for operational use
NOTICE
All the weather images and data on the pages contained herein are provided by external sources. Provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Any material that is copyrighted is property of the respective owner(s) and is to be used at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for any of the data shown on any maps. That is the sole responsibility of the provider the information comes from. The availability of the data on this site solely depends on the source. Don't use the weather information found here as your basis for life or death information.
Quoting Minnemike:
interesting... then i bet it was the Levi worshipers ;)
i mean, he's a great contributor, but not the only one.


He's by far the best though. Goes into great depth more than most.
1278. MahFL
Quoting laguna2:
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever")


It actually states worst ever 1 year drought, there have been longer multi year droughts.
FWIW I happen to be a fan of Levi. Used his name as hoped it would be less offensive than mentioning some others. I hope I am getting - because my posts are not weather related.
I saw something earlier which indicated the potential for something off the SC/NC coast....Any of you experts have any insight on that?
at 2pm invest 92L WILL BE AT 20%
1282. bappit
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.

Once again, good info. I mean, better info.
1283. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:
I saw something earlier which indicated the potential for something off the SC/NC coast....Any of you experts have any insight on that?


"I'm not an expert" but Weatherguy03 talked about it in his video..says if anything develops, it will do a bret and head out to sea..
Quoting ncstorm:


"not an expert" but Weatherguy03 talked about it in his video..says if anything develops, it will do a bret and head out to sea..


mucho thankso
1285. MahFL
Quoting overwash12:
I don't ever want to hear about a PRO-AGW activist ever dying from Hypothermia in the winter,now that would be IRONIC!!!!


It would be even more ironic if they died in a cold summmer.
Did anyone know that Aug 10th is the date in which, on average, the 1st Hurricane normally forms?! Interesting huh?
12Z GFS shows a pretty scary ridging pattern for the U.S. in the very long range.
We could be tracking three possible systems in the tropics by this weekend!

1290. HCW
Watch the GOM next week for some home brewed action as a front stalls in the GOM.


NWS LIX

MODELS
STILL SUGGEST A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH
THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS INSISTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG WHICH WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY WILL INTO THE GULF
WHILE ECMWF JUST STALLS IT AT THE COAST. INCLUDING OTHER MODELS SUCH
AS DGEX...SREF...AND CMC...LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. FCST
WAS BASED ON THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEARSHORE.
Quoting mcluvincane:


He's by far the best though. Goes into great depth more than most.
that depth of analysis is greatly appreciated.
1292. P451
Quoting sarahjola:
its almost the middle of aug. will the tropics start picking up now??? did i really hear that the number of predicted storms has risen? we have not had too much in way of real tropical activity yet. the storms that have been named so far have been nothing but poofs, why is the tropics having such a hard time this season, and last season? will the high ever push the storms into the gulf or will the be an east coaset year, or out to sea year? tia!





yep. warm sst's, more moist environment and add possible low shear, the CONUS could be looking at some trouble, especially the SE CONUS
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS shows a pretty scary ridging pattern for the U.S. in the very long range.


Not a pretty picture:



Now that is the Ridge of Death.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Strong hurricane and a tropical storm.

180:
What is that sitting on the tip of Florida?
which part of the GOM should be on alert? west, central or EGOM?
12Z GFS shows a pretty scary ridging pattern for the U.S. in the very long range. ANYONE GOT THE LINK on the GFS!!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
FWIW I happen to be a fan of Levi. Used his name as hoped it would be less offensive than mentioning some others. I hope I am getting - because my posts are not weather related.


I'm + ing you brother but I feel like Davey Crockett at the Alamo.
Just heavy rainfall
Quoting mrsalagranny:
What is that sitting on the tip of Florida?


Key West!...;^)
NEW BLOG ENTRY

(FYI, Dr. Masters is back. "I'll be with you every day for the next few months," he says.)
NEW BLOG!!!
92l odds will probably be upped to 30-40% at 1 pm cst.
1304. rv1pop
Quoting Bielle:
Quoting rv1pop:

I would love to comment on your emotional, and IMO irrational judgements, but to do so would probably get me banned. You are blasting MY "theology".
Back to lurking.


No religion, no politics, please.
Thank you. My point exactly! Those Bashing creationists, and those supporting Al Gore are violating each of those RULES. And I get the removal for trying to point that out. I did not come to this forum to to get ripped about my beliefs. I came here because I have family in GOM and want weather information. Thank you.
Southdade Fish: thanks for that link -- looks like it has a lot of great information.
Quoting rv1pop:
Thank you. My point exactly! Those Bashing creationists, and those supporting Al Gore are violating each of those RULES. And I get the removal for trying to point that out. I did not come to this forum to to get ripped about my beliefs. I came here because I have family in GOM and want weather information. Thank you.


Wow! We still have creationists and flat earthers! amazing!
Ok Teddy dont blast my english skills or long windedness lol.Remember Im having to type this on my own lol.Lets see, today we have the icecream man and the minne mite battling it out over AGW, durn i thought it was AIG I know that one.Then we have texas hurricane brownsville guy 2011 jason handle himself he used;fussing about the blogs of the other jason.Between these two episodes there are 400 posts.To top it off cloud top comes on with his prediction from his fisher price weather station he got at toysarous.Lets see in between I find levi with some good posts,Reed my friend although he still pushing for a windy Christmas in florida, A good guy like press who thanks this is a hoot, and few others that actually want to talk tropics on a tropical blog.Imagine that!Teddy I know the post is long,the grammar is horrible but my ships are still floating lol.Everyone have a good day.
10% for pre93L,
20% for 92L
10% for Ex-Emily