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Julia Clinging to Life; Karl Continues West With Little Change

By: Jeff Masters 3:06 PM GMT on September 17, 2016

Tropical Depression Julia continues to cling to life as it spins a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed that Julia continued to struggle with high wind shear, with the low-level center of the storm completely exposed to view, and the heaviest thunderstorms all to the east of the center. The top winds observed at any offshore buoys on Saturday morning were 19 mph, gusting to 23 mph, at buoy 41002, 225 nm south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at 7:50 am EDT.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Julia.

Forecast for Julia
Julia is embedded in an atmosphere with very dry air (45 - 50% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere) and wind shear is expected to stay high, 20 - 30 knots, through Sunday evening. These conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken as it meanders off the coast of South Carolina in an atmosphere with weak steering currents. Two of our top models, the GFS and European, predict that high wind shear and dry air should combine to allow Julia to spin down into a remnant low by Monday. However, the UKMET model disagrees, predicting that Julia will survive the hostile conditions this weekend, and re-intensify into a strong tropical storm early in the week when the wind shear finally relents. The UKMET model keeps Julia wandering off the coast of South Carolina/North Carolina until at least Thursday. At this point, I don't see any reason to disagree with the official NHC forecast of dissipation of Julia by Sunday.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Karl.

Tropical Storm Karl continues west with little change
Tropical Storm Karl was headed west at 13 mph in the central tropical Atlantic late Saturday morning, and does not pose a threat to any land areas for at least the next five days. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed much the same picture as on Thursday and Friday: Karl was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was nearly completely exposed to view due to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, with the storm’s heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. Karl has marginal conditions for development, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 50% and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27°C (81°F). By Sunday, SSTs will increase to 28°C and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range—less than 10 knots. These conditions favor strengthening. However, the atmosphere surrounding Karl will be quite dry through Tuesday, which should slow development.

The track forecast for Karl for the next five days is fairly straightforward, with the steering currents expected to take the storm slightly south of due west, then west-northwest. Karl should clear the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by several hundred miles at the time of its closest approach on Wednesday. As usual, the picture gets pretty murky more than five days into the future. The most probable track painted by the models for Karl a week or more into the future is for the storm to get caught in the steering flow of a strong trough of low pressure passing to its north late in the week. This would result in a recurving path for Karl to the north and then northeast, with the storm missing the U.S. East Coast. This is the prediction from about 90% of the 50 members of the 00Z Saturday run of the European ensemble forecast, and all 20 members of the 00Z Saturday GFS ensemble forecast. In this situation, Bermuda and the Maritime Provinces of Canada might still be at risk from a direct hit, though. The other possibility is that the trough passing to the north of Karl late in the week will not be able to capture the storm, and a ridge of high pressure will build in over Karl, forcing it the west or northwest, potentially bringing Karl to a landfall along the U.S. East Coast about nine days from now.

96L off the coast of Africa may develop
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity was located between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday morning. This system was designated Invest 96L by NHC on Saturday morning. The tropical wave has favorable conditions for development through Monday as it heads west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph through the Cabo Verde Islands. The latest 00Z Saturday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—all showed development of the system over the next three days. 96L is headed into a region of ocean where very few storms ever threaten any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC increased their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 40% and 70%, respectively.

Invest 93E off the Pacific coast of Mexico may develop
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops show that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico (Invest 93E) is close to tropical depression status. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis, the GFS, UKMET and European models, predicted in their 00Z Saturday runs that 93E would develop into a tropical storm or tropical depression, but that this storm would stay well offshore of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, and not make landfall. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 80% and 90%, respectively.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Malakas as it brushed Taiwan at 8:40 am local time on September 17, 2016. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Category 3 Malakas brushes Taiwan en route to Japan
Just as Super Typhoon Meranti narrowly avoided a direct landfall on the southern tip of Taiwan, Typhoon Malakas did the same on the island’s northeast corner on Saturday morning. Malakas peaked as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds at 18 UTC Friday, and its brush with Taiwan disrupted the storm’s inner core, reducing the typhoon to a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds by 12 UTC Saturday. Malakas brought up to 283 mm (11.14”) of rain to Taiwan in a 48-hour period. The typhoon will brush Japan’s Yaeyama Islands, then turn to the northeast toward Japan’s main island, Honshu. Malakas could arrive as a Category 1 typhoon, merging with the remnants of Meranti and bringing torrential rain that could easily top 10” in some locations.

There is still no word from the Philippines island of Itbayat, four days after it received a direct hit from Super Typhoon Meranti at Category 5 strength with 185 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Semi-active period right now.
The rain has passed
It thunders now
As the weather man did say
But I'd rather have Karl outside my door
On any given day
Not to take, just to give
From the abundance of it's showers
Not forgetting CaribBoy
And oh, so many others
thanks
Great blog! Thank you!
Thanks Doc. Appreciate all you do.
We're going to end up with 15+ storms this season, and we are far from being out of the woods for multiple landfalling storms through October. This season is far from mundane and with SST's being what they are, I'd expect October to be as busy as September has been. Especially if shear/SAL both improve in the weeks ahead. We will see one CV major within the next three weeks likely, and then it's on to Caribbean watch for the rest of October into early November.
Quoting 3. wadadlian:

The rain has passed
It thunders now
As the weather man did say
But I'd rather have Karl outside my door
On any given day
Not to take, just to give
From the abundance of it's showers
Not forgetting CaribBoy
And oh, so many others


Haiku response and summary of Atlantic now

96L forms
Julia disappearing
Count five days, Karl looms
Good morning all. What was the storm here that made it to the CONUS?



Enjoy the weekend!
Quoting 9. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good morning all. What was the storm here that made it to the CONUS?



Enjoy the weekend!


IKE I think
Came across this, but it really doesn't provide any on-the-ground updates:

Typhoon Ferdie: Batanes under state of calamity
Quoting 10. chrisdscane:



IKE I think


That looks like the one. I thought that Ike came closer to us then that.

Sorry for my rants last night lol need to not drink and be on the interwebz.
And there is this of some pics, but I don't think it is from Itbayat, just one of the other islands in the Batanes - but it is bad enough, the trees are complete stripped in places.

Ferdie uproots trees, cuts communication lines in Batanes
This is from Batan island, to the south of Itbayat - and it speaks of the church being destroyed. Cell phone service from one district is the only means of comminication.

Batanes bishop after 'Ferdie': We are safe but suffering
Quoting 13. SecretStormNerd:

Sorry for my rants last night lol need to not drink and be on the interwebz.


Must not have been too bad... You're still here. :)
Quoting 13. SecretStormNerd:

Sorry for my rants last night lol need to not drink and be on the interwebz.


No Pinochios For You !! That means you're honest lol
A relief flight reached Batan Island. A flight is scheduled to Itbayat for tomorrow.

Relief operations reach Batanes after Super Typhoon "Meranti"
Test
21. vis0
aquak9 look up tomorrow you might have Fujiwara overhead (aquak9 runs and gets those retro looking hand pumped mosquito sprayers)

 

No, Fujiwara  is not the latest tropical fly carrying some mutated disease as to a weather term its this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwara)(be it a weak one)

 

...meanwhile Grothar and his shadow begin the latest dance craze the "Fujiwhata"

...think of the steps similar to a country "swing yer partner round n round" dance, except at one point one turns around each other while making body contact pressing hard against each other as if two cog wheels interacting..Let me show you with a mirror  CRASHHHHHHHHHH  oops too much lean, mirror broke.



The 4 days is long as to the Philippines island of Itbayat in being in the path of Super Typhoon Meranti Cat5 180+mph  winds, usually some signal gets across from island to island (as silly as it reads it works as smoke signals conch like shell horn sounds) till it reaches an island that has working communications (working phones, HAM etc).    Has me worried as to some large wave interaction BUT THIS ARE ONLY MY WORDS LETS HOPE that the local people are just too busy checking house to house first then communicating with the rest of the world once they get a list of needs.

Stay alert and THINK when one wishes for a large storm observe the damage, those  "other there" are humans like you they live on earth just like you and water is the same as in acts with the same force over there as here (except for different pollutants in water) so be as concerned as if it were you.
The 12Z GFS has not finished yet but this set up 150hrs out on the 23rd. If Karl were to be a hurricane and a powerful one at that. Does not look good for East Coast. Don't be so sure a fish is in the wings.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Test2
Aha!



My next post, which I am putting on now, will appear in approximately 4 hours
25. vis0

Quoting 17. K8eCane:



No Pinochios For You !! That means you're honest lol
till we find that that was the only thing left as Vodka ran dry disseminating and drinking don't mix just look at the wxu servers not knowing their bytes from their own bits...oh my i've been drinking too, that d a  rrr   n ...hiccup... 3% MILK...gas...hicuup


on another "♪"
Quoting 7. DeepSeaRising:

We're going to end up with 15+ storms this season, and we are far from being out of the woods for multiple landfalling storms through October. This season is far from mundane and with SST's being what they are, I'd expect October to be as busy as September has been. Especially if shear/SAL both improve in the weeks ahead. We will see one CV major within the next three weeks likely, and then it's on to Caribbean watch for the rest of October into early November.
Wondering which month has HISTORICALLY the least optical and concentration  of SAL -am searching but at 49k PDFs of 8MB take time- (therefore less "+lightning" strikes therefore less "resonance output via longer lasting  thunder from positive strikes" that adds to mixing then balancing via wind motion as  shear which put the kibosh (did i spell it correctly)  on spinning storms....and vice versa

Ridge seems to building over Karl and moving tandem with the storm
Quoting 22. George1938:

The 12Z GFS has not finished yet but this set up 150hrs out on the 23rd. If Karl were to be a hurricane and a powerful one at that. Does not look good for East Coast. Don't be so sure a fish is in the wings.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


It goes out to sea
Quoting 28. Hurricanes101:



It goes out to sea

I did see that after >______< I think though it will come close and pass west of Bermuda in the end.
sorry but i dont care what model may show you am not buying that out too sea stuff


a weaker storm has it is right now will go more W the longer it stay weak the more W Karl will go and that is out it is
Quoting 29. George1938:


I did see that after >______< I think though it will come close and pass west of Bermuda in the end.


believe me nobody wants a close brush with a major
Quoting 27. Grothar:




The models look like anticyclonic feeder bands.
On the plus side: all the laundry is done, folded and put away - and the kitchen, it hasn't been this clean in a while.

Blog issues aren't all that bad . . ..
Most of the 12z models look to have Julia make landfall in SC and finally die..
Quoting 31. K8eCane:



believe me nobody wants a close brush with a major


I just think it will go somewhere over there. I'm actually favoring the JMA Model for now because it has been very consistent over the past few days in terms off crossing the MDR to around 65Wish. In terms of wanting a brush this is what I have to say.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Swirling and twerling....


While the majority of the GFS ensembles take it towards Bermuda, a few take it towards the East Coast. Couple things could happen here a sharp recurve into the Atlantic with a trough in the Central Atlantic that deepens or the East Coast Ridge builds in and traps it and forces it west temporarily until a second trough comes and takes it between the uprights. Also, because that secondary trough would be further out in time, the timing and strength of it would be in question. Nothing here is set in stone and Dr. Masters isn't ruling out anything either.

Outside aloft here is very dynamic


This should show up right on schedule. Based on current trends, I think I have timed this out perfectly...

41. vis0

Quoting 20. daddyjames:

Test
Answer???image host (stretch img to read or zoom) 
sar2401 might say Test (my  ***   uh patience)
[hmm can't strikeout asterisks...more like a 3star general emotitxts]
as washji115 coined "the year of the naked swirls" (if i may add the words of another member(s)] and ocean falling Tropical storms..BO (Brwn Ocn) wetter than AO? obseving near NO, La. ...and bingo was his nameOH.

Quoting 34. ncstorm:

Most of the 12z models look to have Julia make landfall in SC and finally die..


Hunker down everyone, and be safe.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located a few hundred miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Karl, located about
midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue near an elongated area of low
pressure located between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form by the early part of next week while
this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is likely to bring heavy
rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 31. K8eCane:



believe me nobody wants a close brush with a major


Only Caribboy, he legit wants a major to go right over his house.
Quoting 27. Grothar:



Well, that elucidates the matter, It can go anywhere.
Levi posted a video this morning. Tropicaltidbits.com
Even though Julia is trying to build thunderstorm coverage, Im thinking shes spinning down.
Quoting 10. chrisdscane:



IKE I think


Long track Cat 2 to Texas is Ike.
Quoting 31. K8eCane:



believe me nobody wants a close brush with a major


I think a couple of folks down in the Caribbean do.
Is there a chance Julia and Karl could get together? We are from Wilmington NC
Quoting 38. Patrap:

Outside aloft here is very dynamic





Humberto II.
Quoting 44. Sfloridacat5:



Only Caribboy, he legit wants a major to go right over his house.



whats not get Caribboy started lol its peace and quit in here right now whats in joy it


Florida sinkhole causes huge waste water leak into aquifer

Link



The next 48 hours are critical for Karl's survival. If it can make it through, Karl will enter an area with very low shear, less than 5 knots, and warming SSTs. Dry air will likely limit extreme intensification, but I do think Karl has a decent chance at hurricane status.
Nola discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Not a lot of difference between yesterday and what is expected
today. Rain will be produced quite efficiently once again with a
very deep tropical environment overhead. A very weak yet somewhat
evident sfc circulation near Galveston will move toward the
Cameron La area later today. This will help set up some convergent
bands to the east of this very weak low. The system is not
expected to move much today and Sunday but weaken further since
the sfc feature is very close if not onshore. There is a weak mid
level circulation noticed south of the Atchafalaya Bay area as
well. Development of the first area of mainly shower activity
looks to be starting just east of that circulation.

Regardless whether these type of systems have a center or if
they are never given a name, these are still tropical systems by
nature and are still very efficient at producing copious amounts
of rainfall which becomes these features greatest hazard. This
particular system will not be producing record rainfall amounts
but can still be a potential issue for some people especially when
traveling if some roadways are flooded.

Most sh/ts activity today should develop near the coast as well
as inland but should orient from sw-ne. All activity will be
transitory but within convergent boundaries which mean they will
be training over some of the same areas today as did yesterday.
This could lead to precip amounts of 0.5 to 2" within a short time
frame causing some flooding of low lying and poorly drained areas.
A few areas could see totals higher through today, but this should
remain isolated.

As usual, tropical waterspouts and funnels will also be possible.
This should mainly occur during the morning hours today and
Sunday.
Quoting 36. Patrap:

Swirling and twerling....




I am confused with this set up. Can somebody explain please.
julia and karl are on life support
Quoting 56. Patrap:




I was really hoping that some of that rain would have come my way.
Last week was a tease as the temps had cooled and it felt like fall/autumn was on its way
This week though summer is back with a vengeance ...94.3F right now with real feel of 110F
Quoting 54. HurricaneFan:

The next 48 hours are critical for Karl's survival. If it can make it through, Karl will enter an area with very low shear, less than 5 knots, and warming SSTs. Dry air will likely limit extreme intensification, but I do think Karl has a decent chance at hurricane status.
Quoting 57. SELAliveforthetropic:


I am confused with this set up. Can somebody explain please.


Quoting 55. Patrap:

Nola discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Not a lot of difference between yesterday and what is expected
today. Rain will be produced quite efficiently once again with a
very deep tropical environment overhead. A very weak yet somewhat
evident sfc circulation near Galveston will move toward the
Cameron La area later today. This will help set up some convergent
bands to the east of this very weak low. The system is not
expected to move much today and Sunday but weaken further since
the sfc feature is very close if not onshore. There is a weak mid
level circulation noticed south of the Atchafalaya Bay area as
well. Development of the first area of mainly shower activity
looks to be starting just east of that circulation.

Regardless whether these type of systems have a center or if
they are never given a name, these are still tropical systems by
nature and are still very efficient at producing copious amounts
of rainfall which becomes these features greatest hazard. This
particular system will not be producing record rainfall amounts
but can still be a potential issue for some people especially when
traveling if some roadways are flooded.

Most sh/ts activity today should develop near the coast as well
as inland but should orient from sw-ne. All activity will be
transitory but within convergent boundaries which mean they will
be training over some of the same areas today as did yesterday.
This could lead to precip amounts of 0.5 to 2" within a short time
frame causing some flooding of low lying and poorly drained areas.
A few areas could see totals higher through today, but this should
remain isolated.

As usual, tropical waterspouts and funnels will also be possible.
This should mainly occur during the morning hours today and
Sunday.

Quoting 50. Mbrown5254:

Is there a chance Julia and Karl could get together? We are from Wilmington NC


Im from Wilmington also! However im not a met, so someone else will have to answer your question. Glad to meet another fellow wilmingtonian. :)
Quoting 53. justmehouston:



Florida sinkhole causes huge waste water leak into aquifer

Link






Its a little ironic - Lake O is plagued with contamination with phosphorous, yet a phosphorous mine/fertilizer plant causes potential problems in the aquifer close to the Tampa area. Too bad it is not economically (and environmentally) feasible to mine out the phosphorous from Lake O.
Quoting 50. Mbrown5254:


Is there a chance Julia and Karl could get together? We are from Wilmington NC


Quoting 63. K8eCane:



Im from Wilmington also! However im not a met, so someone else will have to answer your question. Glad to meet another fellow wilmingtonian. :)


Well, that depends - do they have profiles on Tinder? Match.com?
At the moment, the models are indicating that Julia will have been swallowed by a cut-off low that breaks off of a front entering into the Ohio Valley in a couple of days . . . . However, things (especially with Julia) could change - she doesn't want to go quietly into the night.
Taking a ride out to the boat launch to shoot some images and video .


Phoenix is my production krewe.






AL, 12, 2016091706, , BEST, 0, 183N, 374W, 40, 1004, TS

AL, 12, 2016091712, , BEST, 0, 182N, 386W, 40, 1004, TS

AL, 12, 2016091718, , BEST, 0, 181N, 398W, 40, 1005, TS,
Taiwan, The Typhoon Slayer!
Karl Closer to the U.S. on this afternoons Euro run in 7 days

12z EURO much stronger.
Quoting 69. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Kar Closer to the U.S. on this afternoons Euro run in 7 days




Heading straight for Bermuda on this run.
Westward trend in the models seems likely over the coming days the longer Karl stays weak and making it more of a possibility to miss any trough down the road.
Quoting 72. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Westward trend in the models seems likely over the coming days the longer Karl stays weak and making it more of a possibility to miss any trough down the road.


I'll give it a 5% chance of a US impact or a 95% chance of it never impacting the US.
Last 5 runs of the GFS featuring Karl. All 5 valid @ 2PM EDT, Saturday, 09/24
(oldest to newest-top to bottom)


09/16 12Z


09/16 18Z


09/17 00Z


09/17 06Z


09/17 12Z

Feel free to delete if I have exceeded comment space allowance or server capacity.
Quoting 57. SELAliveforthetropic:


I am confused with this set up. Can somebody explain please.


Early afternoon thunder showers
Julia trying to work some convection around to the west side but it just aint happening....I love to watch the dynamics of these storms. In my years here I have learned more by proxy than I think I have. I sure would hate to see this site go down. As far as a major, I was in Fran. It was probably the worst I've been in. I too wanted to feel the power of a major. I was in a brick house and it was shaking. The devastation in my city afterwards brought me to tears. I would not stay for another cat 3. The power is amazing but the fear overrides it.
77. SLU
When the EURO says to jump, everyone asks "how high"?



Quoting 73. Bucsboltsfan:



I'll give it a 5% chance of a US impact or a 95% chance of it never impacting the US.


I don't want a U.S. impact but at this stage that's too low of a number to put on it, especially since the setup is complicated and we will not know for a few days the strength of the ridge and trough and how strong Karl will be. We all know what models were doing with Fiona, constantly turning it north out to sea in Central Atlantic because they were forecasting a stronger system, ended up dissipating and remnants went into Florida. The longer Karl is weak and the more west it goes the threat to the Bahamas and U.S is increased.
Quoting 71. Sfloridacat5:



Heading straight for Bermuda on this run.



if you look closer it past Bermuda too the W its more closer too the USA then Bermuda


Karl diving SW
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KARL AL122016 09/17/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 67 70
V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 67 70
V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 40 41 45 49 54 60 68 77
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 12 9 4 1 4 3 5 1 0 3
Karl headed for very light shear
15/55 rule- karl will not be a threat to CONUS
Quoting 84. aquak9:

15/55 rule- karl will not be a threat to CONUS


sorry but that is not going too be the case way too early too be saying stuff like that right now
Quoting 79. thetwilightzone:




if you look closer it past Bermuda too the W its more closer too the USA then Bermuda


What are you talking about? Did you even look at the model run? It not even close. That could change with new model runs, but the 12z is much much closer to Bermuda than the U.S.
And it passes just to the south and east of Bermuda (not west).

Closest pass to the U.S.


System passes just south of Bermuda - near miss but close




Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



What are you talking about. Did you even look at the model run?




System passes just south of Bermuda - near miss but close








we will see i think karl will be closer too the USA then what model runs are hiting at
Quoting 88. thetwilightzone:




we will see i think karl will be closer too the USA then what model runs are hiting at


Now that is very possible. We will likely see a shift in the track one way or the other Most likely a shift to the west.
Karl is developing some convection close to his center.
Clear sailing for Karl:)

92. IDTH
Still a lot of time to watch this one. Plenty of factors could change, remember it's 5 day and beyond forecast.
look at that dry air
94. vis0
Sir Grothar please do not forget that thing that joined  just outside Africa as Gaston then un-joined and is now ESE of Puerto Rico. Sure that area is the TS Graveyard but a few apparitions have managed to make it through incl later TS
  • Can anyone tell me what is developing in the GM south of New Orleans?<>img src="webkit-fake-url://5f20ce0d-b733-46b8-a9da-f4c 0cf4c22a4/imagepng"
Quoting 84. aquak9:

15/55 rule- karl will not be a threat to CONUS


Massive continental trough moving out of the central US towards Karl can't hurt either. OTS.
I'm from carolina beach,been a lurker here for 15 years,Fran was a cat 2 at landfall, we were lucky Bertha cleared out alot of dead and weak tree limbs or it would have been alot worse- don't think I've ever seen such dry air and relentless sheer-these waves have all been robust but it's all for nothing with the conditions the way they are. can't even seem to muster up a decent TS
Back from a nice breezy walk along the S shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

Looking west toward the Causeway bridge



Metairie High Rises




Looking South one can just see the 20 ft Levees in the distance.


Quoting 97. beell:



Massive continental trough moving out of the central US towards Karl can't hurt either. OTS.



this is not going too GO OTS right now karl is weak the weaker the storm the more and more W it will go karl could be a lot closer too the USA then what the models are hiting at right now so OTS is not 100% for sure right now we will no more by time karl hits 55W all so by that time we will have the recon out there in it too help better the model some but for now we will have too make do with what we got
I know a lot of people on here think that the 2016 Atlantic season has been "boring," but I disagree. We have had a hurricane in January, two pre-season storms, the earliest named 3rd and 4th storms on record, the first Florida hurricane landfall in 11 years, a beautiful annular hurricane and a storm form inland. Much more interesting events than the last three seasons have had.
Blog Hole Again. Betcha they are getting ready to raise the yearly membership fee and charge us all whether we want ads or not.
Quoting 95. Sally05:

  • Can anyone tell me what is developing in the GM south of New Orleans?

I'll have to leave the technical explanation to the better educated, but the discussion indicates just a rain maker. NHC not expecting it to develop into anything.
Quoting 50. Mbrown5254:

Is there a chance Julia and Karl could get together? We are from Wilmington NC
Quoting 50. Mbrown5254:

Is there a chance Julia and Karl could get together? We are from Wilmington NC


Did you go to Laney
96L may become Lisa within the next week OTS yes but should be good to track

Meanwhile, Julia is still topless.
Quoting 53. justmehouston:

Florida sinkhole causes huge waste water leak into aquifer
Link


Uhh, what a hellish hole! *Shudder*

More about it:
Florida sinkhole causes vast leak of wastewater into drinking water source
Phosphate supplier says 'absolutely nobody at risk' as company monitors groundwater at central Florida fertilizer plant
The Guardian, Associated Press in Tampa, Florida, Saturday 17 September 2016 14.10 BST


Today's rain
Quoting 93. Chicklit:

look at that dry air



ew
Quoting 98. CapeFearCaner:

I'm from carolina beach,been a lurker here for 15 years,Fran was a cat 2 at landfall, we were lucky Bertha cleared out alot of dead and weak tree limbs or it would have been alot worse- don't think I've ever seen such dry air and relentless sheer-these waves have all been robust but it's all for nothing with the conditions the way they are. can't even seem to muster up a decent TS


Welcome fellow Cape Fear
Is that the high pressure ridge to the east of Karl? Looks like it's pushing it SW.

Quoting 80. Articuno:



Karl diving SW
Good consensus with latest models but most models are predicting a stronger system in 4-5 days, dry air should keep it at bay for a while. If it is not as strong and the trough to the north Levi pointed out isn't enough to carry it north as projected at this point a shift 2-3 degrees south in 96 hours Karl will cross inside the Hebert Box.

You know what is a bust this season? The blog!
Quoting 80. Articuno:



Karl diving SW

It looks like it might open up into a wave.
Quoting 114. SecretStormNerd:

You know what is a bust this season? The blog!

LOL! So true.
When the season is over the storms that I will probably recall off the top of my head are Alex,Gaston and perhaps Hermine.I'm already forgetting the other ones or what they did.A season like 2010 would be rally nice with most of the major hurricanes OTS.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 56m

Euro back to near 70 W. with Karl now in my opinion which is not changed the recurve is not a done deal
Youtube video:
Typhoons bolster world's largest tidal bore
17.09.2016: The world's largest tidal bore, on the Qiantang River in China, has been swollen by floodwaters caused by two typhoons.
Tourists gathered in Haining City in the eastern Zhejiang Province to watch swells of up to 15 metres high.


Some more info:
Tourists flood China to see spectacular tidal bore
Saturday 17 September 2016 - 7:00pm
Quoting 111. hurrikanehunter14:


Welcome fellow Cape Fear
Thanks HH14 These CV waves have been tenacious this year, having to struggle against insurmountable odds and yet still hang on- had conditions been favorable- WOW, we would have had some real players- anyway, you might be able to read this by next week as it took 20 minutes to type and load
Quoting 114. SecretStormNerd:

You know what is a bust this season? The blog!

Hitting the adult beverages again? LOL
Long way out, but the GFS has a large and very cold air mass coming down from the Northern Canada in 10 to 12 days...

Quoting 114. SecretStormNerd:

You know what is a bust this season? The blog!

Funny! I thought you weren't drinking and blogging?
Looks like Karl may be putting on some clothes... first time for a little bit I've seen him not fully naked. Intersting to see the convection going off at/around Dmin!

Tonight will be interesting, particularly Dmax - wind shear will be dropping quite a bit and SSTs will continue to warm as it continues westward. All that's left to deal with is dry air.

Hopefully, if Karl does become a monster of a hurricane, it'll pass OTS nicely between Bermuda/the US without giving either any grief.
Quoting 98. CapeFearCaner:

I'm from carolina beach,been a lurker here for 15 years,Fran was a cat 2 at landfall, we were lucky Bertha cleared out alot of dead and weak tree limbs or it would have been alot worse- don't think I've ever seen such dry air and relentless sheer-these waves have all been robust but it's all for nothing with the conditions the way they are. can't even seem to muster up a decent TS
We only need two more hurricanes plus a major to be at the average for the entire season and its still September. This season has been anything but a bust
Quoting 115. gulfbreeze:


It looks like it might open up into a wave.

That is a possibility. At 24 hours on the latest EURO model, it seems like Karl opens up briefly. However, at 48 hours, it seems to regenerate and strengthen after that as it enters a more favorable environment.

Quoting 98. CapeFearCaner:

I'm from carolina beach,been a lurker here for 15 years,Fran was a cat 2 at landfall, we were lucky Bertha cleared out alot of dead and weak tree limbs or it would have been alot worse- don't think I've ever seen such dry air and relentless sheer-these waves have all been robust but it's all for nothing with the conditions the way they are. can't even seem to muster up a decent TS


Hey! I'm in Wilmington.
I lost 2 jobs that summer in '96 as a result of Bertha then Fran.
Waiting for Karl @ 55W, then we'll see.
On a side note did i miss something along the way, have not seen a post by K-Man in ages. Certainly hope all is OK?
130. Tcwx2
EURO does as well.
Quoting 123. hydrus:

Long way out, but the GFS has a large and very cold air mass coming down from the Northern Canada in 10 to 12 days...


131. THL3
Quoting 114. SecretStormNerd:

You know what is a bust this season? The blog!



I'm sure they have their TOP men working on it.......
Quoting 128. Brock31:



Hey! I'm in Wilmington.
I lost 2 jobs that summer in '96 as a result of Bertha then Fran.


That is no good. Sorry about that
Quoting 126. MrTornadochase:

We only need two more hurricanes plus a major to be at the average for the entire season and its still September. This season has been anything but a bust


I think Karl might be our major if it curves its. Heck it could be a major and not go out to sea. This season is full of surprises
Quoting 121. CapeFearCaner:

Thanks HH14 These CV waves have been tenacious this year, having to struggle against insurmountable odds and yet still hang on- had conditions been favorable- WOW, we would have had some real players- anyway, you might be able to read this by next week as it took 20 minutes to type and load


10-4 good buddy.

The 12z run of the Euro today is even more aggressive than it was at earlier, now they make Karl a 923 mbar cat 5 coming dangerously close to Bermuda, as opposed to a 938 mbar cat 4. This is still a long ways ahead, but it's not too soon for the folks there to start preparing for a hit, if Karl comes their way down the road.
if karl is a wave wont that keep it farther south?
Quoting 116. HurricaneFan:


LOL! So true.


Hmmmm, let take a trip in the way back machine....

"By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM EDT on July 02, 2012
It's true. After 17 years as an independent company, Weather Underground has been sold, and will now be part of The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC.) As one of the founders of Weather Underground, I am excited about embarking upon this new chapter in our company's history. Having the infrastructure, resources, and content of The Weather Channel Companies will enable wunderground to create some great new products, and improve the quality and reliability of our existing content. We will now be called Weather Underground, LLC, and will maintain the wunderground.com web site as it is." Ha!

Hate to break it to those of you that still believe in the Easter Bunny, but weather websites are/were a huge business. The romantic notion of a bunch of weather geeks creating a website for other geeks largely dissipated in 2009. Wunderground started to hugely expand their staff and focus on business. My guess was to make themselves look "pretty" to perspective buyers. It worked. Dr. Masters cashed out in 2012. Hopefully, Dr. Masters made the many millions I assume he did. He built something and decided to monetize it. Good for him. (Curiously, you have a better chance of finding Bigfoot than the terms of that sale.)

I just find it a little, perhaps, disingenuous to tell the Wunderground community it was good for them. The reality is The Weather Channel proceeded to ramp up their content holdings so they could eventually sell (look pretty) to an even bigger dog...IBM. This was another chapter in the wall street merger and acquisition playbook. IBM in turn has done what they often do with acquisitions...overpay for the asset, not understand what they are buying, and then screw up what they bought. At some point IBM will realize they bought...nothing of real value. Their attempt to monetize the Wunderground will, my guess, fail.

Meanwhile, Dr. Masters seems to have decided to enjoy life a little. Writing the blog, updating every three days or less, is not easy. Thus the addition of Mr. Henson, another change that supposedly was "great" for all of us. My view is his addition has just taken the blog into non-tropical, non-current weather debate...and run off many with the vitriol that came with some comments. Even the haters have left, lol.

Eventually after Dr. Masters has had a good rest, he will probably be able to buy the company back for pennies on a dollar. Then we can return to our tropical weather/ current weather roots. God bless capitalism.

The reality is this blog is now about the contributing commentors and the moderators. No one else cares. Those that did have taken their money and walked. Those that should don't even know anything is wrong. I guess everybody has largely taken their marbles and gone home...
Any reason the seeming circulation over the Lesser Antilles will not develop? Wind shear in the immediate area is low, though it is heading into a hostile environment.
Quoting 118. WeatherInterest:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 56m

Euro back to near 70 W. with Karl now in my opinion which is not changed the recurve is not a done deal


Has Bastardi been listening to Taz? He's been saying that all day.
I'm giving it up for today. This blog is not worth my time when it doesn't post my comments in a timely manner.
Quoting 118. WeatherInterest:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 56m

Euro back to near 70 W. with Karl now in my opinion which is not changed the recurve is not a done deal

My experience is shallow storms do not go where the models predict. The models are built to make predictions for fully developed storms. Karl will go west, far west, of predictions. JMO
Quoting 115. gulfbreeze:


It looks like it might open up into a wave.


It's close to opening up. More than elongated NE-SW. There are a few storms firing closer to the center. It may hold on. Conditions are just not good in the MDR. Have been that way all summer.
Quoting 123. hydrus:

Long way out, but the GFS has a large and very cold air mass coming down from the Northern Canada in 10 to 12 days...



I saw something similar showing up in the ECMWF model, as far as a large cold front pushing southward. I don't know about "very cold", especially this time of year. There aren't any very cold temps yet even in the far Arctic.
Quoting 122. SunnyDaysFla:


Hitting the adult beverages again? LOL

Haha. Nope. Too much schoolwork and housework to do!
Quoting 119. barbamz:

Youtube video:
Typhoons bolster world's largest tidal bore
17.09.2016: The world's largest tidal bore, on the Qiantang River in China, has been swollen by floodwaters caused by two typhoons.
Tourists gathered in Haining City in the eastern Zhejiang Province to watch swells of up to 15 metres high.


Some more info:
Tourists flood China to see spectacular tidal bore
Saturday 17 September 2016 - 7:00pm


Some around here might say that the world's greatest hurricane bore these past couple of years has been the Atlantic.
Quoting 97. beell:



Massive continental trough moving out of the central US towards Karl can't hurt either. OTS.
A weak Karl will miss this trough, as the trough will be to far North and moving E/NE at a fairly good clip, and then the high builds back in. So sorry to disappoint, all you fish nuts.
Quoting 98. CapeFearCaner:

I'm from carolina beach,been a lurker here for 15 years,Fran was a cat 2 at landfall, we were lucky Bertha cleared out alot of dead and weak tree limbs or it would have been alot worse- don't think I've ever seen such dry air and relentless sheer-these waves have all been robust but it's all for nothing with the conditions the way they are. can't even seem to muster up a decent TS


Fran was a 3, last major to hit the state. Brunt of the storm was north of Cape Fear, near Topsail.
Quoting 115. gulfbreeze:


It looks like it might open up into a wave.
If this keeps up, South America better watch out.
Quoting 143. BayFog:


I saw something similar showing up in the ECMWF model, as far as a large cold front pushing southward. I don't know about "very cold", especially this time of year. There aren't any very cold temps yet even in the far Arctic.


Isn't the GFS known for exaggerating troughs?
18z GFS in 6 days

Quoting 143. BayFog:


I saw something similar showing up in the ECMWF model, as far as a large cold front pushing southward. I don't know about "very cold", especially this time of year. There aren't any very cold temps yet even in the far Arctic.
Might be true for the Midwest, but forget about it for the East Coast To early and the high will hold it's ground, besides the trough will never be that strong. It will be cool in the Midwest though.
Quoting 102. K8eCane:

Blog Hole Again. Betcha they are getting ready to raise the yearly membership fee and charge us all whether we want ads or not.

Interesting about the ads.
I was over in New York state working last year and for the first time I saw what you must suffer over in America with the Ads for not paying your dues to the blog hosts. when I signed in to WU after a lot of problems with the WiFi and other codes etc.
Here in Europe we, or at least I never get any adds on the blog pages. I don't know about the others over here.

Hoping that your wishes for and ad free future transpire. Nothing to report from Southern Spain, warm at about 30/C and no winds, storms, rain, or in fact anything, other than the locals burning off vegetation like there is no tomorrow, which in fact with the amount of pollution they are creating they probably wont be many more tomorrows on a global time scale?
So much for all these climate talks and pollution curbs when nobody even thinks about stopping local burning pollution?
Then again it could be "the blind eye of corruption" being turned?

Maybe it would be just the easiest answer to pay the fees and be Ad Free?
Quoting 126. MrTornadochase:
We only need two more hurricanes plus a major to be at the average for the entire season and its still September. This season has been anything but a bust
Never said the season was a bust- just saying with conditions they they are, good luck- this is the peak and look what's out there- nuf said!
Quoting 149. SunnyDaysFla:



Isn't the GFS known for exaggerating troughs?
Yes, very much so.
Quoting 147. win1gamegiantsplease:



Fran was a 3, last major to hit the state. Brunt of the storm was north of Cape Fear, near Topsail.


Topsail. Thats me. But I wasn't here then. I evacuated to Charlotte with my boyfriend who was really stupid so I missed it. I guess thats good
Quoting 149. SunnyDaysFla:



Isn't the GFS known for exaggerating troughs?


If you are wondering about Karl, the ECMWF and just about every other model show a pretty progressive pattern.
Quoting 66. Patrap:

Taking a ride out to the boat launch to shoot some images and video .


Phoenix is my production krewe.







Is that a White Shepherd?
Not sure whether the newly released ambitious intentions of the "Euro" model had already been posted in here:



ECMWF launches new Strategy
ECMWF, 12 September 2016
ECMWF has launched its new ten-year Strategy, which sets ambitious goals that push the limits of predictability in weather forecasting.
A key target is to extend the probabilistic skill of ECMWF's high-impact weather forecasts by three to six days over the next decade.
This would enable skilful predictions of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead.
Other goals include predicting large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead, and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.

ECMWF's Director-General Florence Rabier said: "Our 2025 ambition raises the international bar. Given the greater likelihood of life-threatening climate change impacts on the Earth's weather, we will harness rapidly advancing data availability and technology to stretch the accuracy and range of predictions further and faster.
"ECMWF is a shining example of the value of European and global cooperation in the scientific field, and one which has tangible benefits day in, day out for dozens of national economies and millions of people's daily lives."The Strategy was approved unanimously by the representatives of ECMWF's Member States meeting on 30 June and 1 July. ...

More see link above.

Press release (pdf)
Site where to download the whole papers.

Good night from Germany where finally some very welcome rain is falling around my house in Mainz :-) - but not only here, southeastern Germany received large amounts of the stuff in the last 24h and some places suffered from flooding. Wet start for Oktoberfest in Munich as well.
Quoting 147. win1gamegiantsplease:


Fran was a 3, last major to hit the state. Brunt of the storm was north of Cape Fear, near Topsail.
9/05 -33.9 78.11/103mph look it up- i'm out
I deeply wish that Karl will defy the models. I want to see it diving to 15N and continue towards the Leewards as a strengthening TS.
Some interesting photos, videos, and links on this HP link about the weather in the UK, including tornados in Sheffield and flooding at Manchester Airport.
Even a few local shots from people in the streets. I'm wondering where "Zac the weather kid" is now as he should have been right in the middle of it all at "Chapel en le Frith, UK,? Me as well if I had not seen all this coming and baled out of the UK 25 years ago.

Link
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Despite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce
enough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low. It appears
that a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the
depression is providing a more favorable environment for convection
than anticipated earlier. The dynamical models forecast this
trough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several
hours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and
subsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity.
The only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour
point, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as
a remnant low through that time.

Julia is now drifting northwestward. A low- to mid-level ridge
north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life
. The new forecast track is
sifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight
westward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.5N 76.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 32.2N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 32.7N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN


Any questions?
Quoting 162. pureet1948:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Despite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce
enough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low. It appears
that a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the
depression is providing a more favorable environment for convection
than anticipated earlier. The dynamical models forecast this
trough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several
hours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and
subsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity.
The only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour
point, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as
a remnant low through that time.

Julia is now drifting northwestward. A low- to mid-level ridge
north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life
. The new forecast track is
sifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight
westward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.5N 76.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 32.2N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 32.7N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN


Any questions?



Yes, why are you asking "any questions?"

96L aka "Frankenblob" really consists of a big chunk of moisture!
Quoting 159. CapeFearCaner:

9/05 -33.9 78.11/103mph look it up- i'm out


I have looked it up. I lived it. Are you a troll? I think so.
Really hoping this happens. It would be nice to get a break from the constant >75F lows.

Quoting 165. K8eCane:


I have looked it up. I lived it. Are you a troll? I think so.
Im no troll- lived through it myself and every other one that's hit this area- bye the way, if your brick house was shaking u might want to consider finding a more solid structure- just saying!
Quoting 166. CybrTeddy:

Really hoping this happens. It would be nice to get a break from the constant >75F lows.


M
You do realize that is 2 weeks out? I guess wishing can't hurt, but I sure won't plan on it.
it might be possible that Karl heads for South Florida, so people in South Florida should watch this closely, as it seems like it might no longer be a "fish storm"
Quoting 168. SunnyDaysFla:

M
You do realize that is 2 weeks out? I guess wishing can't hurt, but I sure won't plan on it.


Where are your whereabouts in Florida, SunnyDaysFla?
Quoting 101. HurricaneFan:

I know a lot of people on here think that the 2016 Atlantic season has been "boring," but I disagree. We have had a hurricane in January, two pre-season storms, the earliest named 3rd and 4th storms on record, the first Florida hurricane landfall in 11 years, a beautiful annular hurricane and a storm form inland. Much more interesting events than the last three seasons have had.


No death and destruction is boring for the faithful on here....
Quoting 165. K8eCane:



I have looked it up. I lived it. Are you a troll? I think so.


Why would you call this person a troll? I don't see anything troll' ish about their comment....
Quoting 172. CCSoFLA79:



Why would you call this person a troll? I don't see anything troll' ish about their comment....


I noticed the last few comments as being confrontational. Thats all. I doubt he/she loses any sleep over it.
174. beell
5 day guess:
Both the ECMWF and the GFS turn Karl OTS along the western periphery of the ST ridge over the mid-Atlantic and a path to the mid-latitude westerlies. This is before the NOAM trough has little if any steering influence. If Karl does not strengthen and does not gain enough latitude or dawdles, the trough should "save the day" for the US.


Quoting 173. K8eCane:



I noticed the last few comments as being confrontational. Thats all. I doubt he/she loses any sleep over it.


Looking back through now I see....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
619 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Julia will continue to meander off the coast
THROUGH the foreseeable future. Mid level low pressure will once
again develop across the southeast next week possibly keeping
showers in the forecast with mild temperatures continuing.

Ha! Sounds like somebodys tired of Julia
Quoting 176. K8eCane:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
619 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Julia will continue to meander off the coast
THROUGH the foreseeable future. Mid level low pressure will once
again develop across the southeast next week possibly keeping
showers in the forecast with mild temperatures continuing.

Ha! Sounds like somebodys tired of Julia


Reminds me of TS bonnie that was reluctant to leave the same area, LOL=).
Quoting 177. birdsrock2016:



Reminds me of TS bonnie that was reluctant to leave the same area, LOL=).



OMG if you're talking about Bonnie of 98, she was an ANNOYANCE for real. 2 days of solid downpours. She stalled right over top of us.
Quoting 172. CCSoFLA79:


Why would you call this person a troll? I don't see anything troll' ish about their comment....
Thanks, that's why I never post anything on here- seems like someone always wants to attack you- that's fine-guess I'll just go back to lurking-just don't need the drama- take care y'all!
Quoting 179. K8eCane:




OMG if you're talking about Bonnie of 98, she was an ANNOYANCE for real. 2 days of solid downpours. She stalled right over top of us.

That one and also the recent one of 2016.
Quoting 180. CapeFearCaner:

Thanks, that's why I never post anything on here- seems like someone always wants to attack you- that's fine-guess I'll just go back to lurking-just don't need the drama- take care y'all!


I'm very sorry for implying that you may be a troll. That was very rude of me. Don't let it stop you from interacting. Life is too short. I apologize.
It is extremely dry here in new jersey. Even though it has gotten colder here (70), the main habitat for grass is in dried riverbeds. Very depressing. . .
We judge on looks in America, pretty is worshiped. Who has truth? False realism for women to live up to. Sheep think is considered wisdom. Truth is an absolute, we must seek it. For it is not AGW that will cull the masses; it is man's deception for the Devil himself that will. The hour is late and less than 10% of Humanity have any inkling of.
need to read latest discussion on karl ridge will turn it west into Bahamas. and people need to shut about fish. this is serious......

HWRF seems to make Karl a strong 145 mph category 4 hurricane.
Quoting 185. markot:

need to read latest discussion on karl ridge will turn it west into Bahamas. and people need to shut about fish. this is serious......


Please post and highlight where is says its moving west into the Bahamas. Thank you.
Quoting 182. K8eCane:


I'm very sorry for implying that you may be a troll. That was very rude of me. Don't let it stop you from interacting. Life is too short. I apologize.
No need to apologize,but thanks anyway- good luck and take care!
Quoting 170. birdsrock2016:



Where are your whereabouts in Florida, SunnyDaysFla?

Tampa
190. beell


TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016

Convection continues to flare up and down near the center of Karl, with a larger mass well to the northeast of the center. In addition, the circulation looks more elongated than earlier today, perhaps due to the convective asymmetry. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt since the system does not look all that different, although the satellite classifications are a bit lower.

Karl could still weaken a little bit in the short term while the cyclone is in a recovery stage from its interaction with an upper-level low. Gradual strengthening is then forecast by early next week as the storm encounters very warm water, low shear, and a marginal moisture environment. Model guidance is very similar to the previous cycle, except for the ECMWF which shows a more powerful cyclone by day 5. Very little change was made to the official forecast, which continues to be most similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models.

The initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous one, 265/11. Karl should begin to gain some latitude by Monday as it moves around the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday due to the orientation of the ridge, and this motion could continue for the rest of the 5-day period. The biggest change since the last cycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the central Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward motion. The track models have shifted westward at long range, and the official forecast is moved in that direction, but not as far west as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 189. SunnyDaysFla:


Tampa


I'm in Boca Raton, FL. Our hurricane drought in South Florida is still at 11 years and counting.
Quoting 152. PlazaRed:


Interesting about the ads.
I was over in New York state working last year and for the first time I saw what you must suffer over in America with the Ads for not paying your dues to the blog hosts. when I signed in to WU after a lot of problems with the WiFi and other codes etc.
Here in Europe we, or at least I never get any adds on the blog pages. I don't know about the others over here.

Hoping that your wishes for and ad free future transpire. Nothing to report from Southern Spain, warm at about 30/C and no winds, storms, rain, or in fact anything, other than the locals burning off vegetation like there is no tomorrow, which in fact with the amount of pollution they are creating they probably wont be many more tomorrows on a global time scale?
So much for all these climate talks and pollution curbs when nobody even thinks about stopping local burning pollution?
Then again it could be "the blind eye of corruption" being turned?

Maybe it would be just the easiest answer to pay the fees and be Ad Free?


Hmm, UK me. I used to get a few ads, but I haven't noticed one in a long time, now that you mention it. I do have a blocker of sorts on Chrome, but don't think it's an actual ad blocker, more a tracker blocker type thing. Makes me wonder what the ad's are like for the states though! I know I've been shocked by the amount of ads on many websites from there, guess have gotten acclimated to UK ad amounts, which isn't so bad LOL

Quoting 187. luvtogolf:



Please post and highlight where is says its moving west into the Bahamas. Thank you.

Forecast track form NHC Edit: track shifted west but still WAY east of Bahamas
Quoting 191. birdsrock2016:



I'm in Boca Raton, FL. Our hurricane drought in South Florida is still at 11 years and counting.

Hope is lasts many more years. It has been a long time since a hurricane has hit here. I think even a Cat 1 could be a major
disaster for a lot of people. Hermine was far out in the gulf and there was flooding north of here.
I think we have a chance at 2 Hurricanes at once in the Atlantic next week Karl and Lisa. Hopefully both don't even come close to land but are beauties to watch. I mentioned a couple weeks ago once we reach September 20th the Atlantic will heat up and have a final push of high activity through mid October.
197. vis0

Quoting 84. aquak9:

15/55 rule- karl will not be a threat to CONUS
eeknee meknee myknee mo rule might take precedence
read discussion on karl 5pm long range models go w wnw.
Quoting 195. HurricaneFan:



HWARF obivously way overdone but I wouldn't be suprised to see a major out of Karl
It makes sense that both the EURO and HWRF are so bullish with Karl. Both seem to deepen it into a category 4/5 hurricane - and they are two of our most reliable models. According to the SHIPS model, Karl is entering an area of very low shear less than 5 kt, along with increasing SSTs, relative humidity in the mid-levels and oceanic heat content. I highly doubt Karl will reach category 5 status, but a category 4 is very possible if the conditions as predicted by SHIPS come true.
Quoting 199. MrTornadochase:


HWARF obivously way overdone but I wouldn't be suprised to see a major out of Karl

WTH is the HWFI doing?!?!

I think we are going to get a Hurricane out of 96L
203. JRRP7

now looks like Karl is moving west..
Quoting 161. PlazaRed:

Some interesting photos, videos, and links on this HP link about the weather in the UK, including tornados in Sheffield and flooding at Manchester Airport.
Even a few local shots from people in the streets. I'm wondering where "Zac the weather kid" is now as he should have been right in the middle of it all at "Chapel en le Frith, UK,? Me as well if I had not seen all this coming and baled out of the UK 25 years ago.

Link


I only got the very edge of the storm, a few cracks of thunder and regular rains. Am right close to the M62 and not far from the M6.

Don't think it's a tornado, just looks like some of the funky clouds, have seen some like that that look like a tornado at first. I could be wrong though obviously.

I knew the Metro in Mancs was shut down cause of lightning striking some electrical hubs, but looks like they'd have been anyway with that flooding! That pic is right in the busiest pedestrian area. I was there during some big thunderstorms in the summer, but wasn't as bad as that!
Quoting 166. CybrTeddy:

Really hoping this happens. It would be nice to get a break from the constant >75F lows.


Please, its the GFS.
Quoting 205. NativeSun:

Please, its the GFS.

Aint going to happen, Florida never gets cold air fronts XD
Quoting 174. beell:

5 day guess:
Both the ECMWF and the GFS turn Karl OTS along the western periphery of the ST ridge over the mid-Atlantic and a path to the mid-latitude westerlies. This is before the NOAM trough has little if any steering influence. If Karl does not strengthen and does not gain enough latitude or dawdles, the trough should "save the day" for the US.



Sorry no troughs to help turn Karl, unless they dig into the Caribbean.
Majors knocking on the door soon. We are open for business and a hyper active end of season is in store.
Of course Joe would cheer for Karl to miss the trough.Sandy didn't satisfy his thirst of complete catastrophe along the east coast because it was not a cat 3 plowing into New York city.Our local mets have been advertising that we may see the first real signs of fall soon.
Quoting 198. markot:

read discussion on karl 5pm long range models go w wnw.


I just read the discussion on post #190 and I read as saying the models have shifted west but don't see any commentary about moving west into the Bahamas.
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

Sorry no troughs to help turn Karl, unless they dig into the Caribbean.

Not saying i disagree, but if there is no trough deepenough, how come models are turning it? (Besides for ridge)
Quoting 184. DeepSeaRising:

We judge on looks in America, pretty is worshiped. Who has truth? False realism for women to live up to. Sheep think is considered wisdom. Truth is an absolute, we must seek it. For it is not AGW that will cull the masses; it is man's deception for the Devil himself that will. The hour is late and less than 10% of Humanity have any inkling of.
what are u talking about?
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

Sorry no troughs to help turn Karl, unless they dig into the Caribbean.


Then these are all wrong?

Quoting 213. Bucsboltsfan:



Then these are all wrong?



The experts at the NHC also agree with recurve
Pretty easy to see...

models will change the trough will not pick it up. and high ridge build in.
217. JLPR2
Karl looks complicated.

Quoting 14. AGWcreationists:

And there is this of some pics, but I don't think it is from Itbayat, just one of the other islands in the Batanes - but it is bad enough, the trees are complete stripped in places.

Ferdie uproots trees, cuts communication lines in Batanes
Thanks so much for the link...have really been concerned for the welfare of those that were in the direct path of Meranti. I don't know if all the pics were from Basco but, some definitely were and they look rough
Levi's tropical tidbit about Julie and Karl was really good to listen too and very informative. I think Karl will recurve OTS.

Eric
220. IDTH
Seems like Bermuda lately has been on alert a ton at the end of September to October. Hopefully Karl won't hit the island and it recurves out to sea.
I'm wondering how much rain 92 is dropping on Louisiana. I wouldn't think they need anymore rain.
Quoting 217. JLPR2:

Karl looks complicated.




Looks very stretched out.
Quoting 216. markot:

models will change the trough will not pick it up. and high ridge build in.


Is that an opinion or do you have something to share with us showing a ridge building back in? I watched Levi's video and he outlines it pretty well.
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016

please read the NHC


The biggest change since the last
cycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the
central Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward
motion. The track models have shifted westward at long range, and
the official forecast is moved in that direction, but not as far
west as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions.


they no more then we do and model runs you are post could end up being wrong about it going OTS giving on how weak it is right now the weaker the storm will move more W
Storm total's




"You're an interesting species, an interesting mix. You are capable of such beautiful dreams, and such horrible nightmares. You feel so lost, so cut off, so alone. Only you're not. See, in all our searching, the only thing that we've found that makes the emptiness bearable... is each other."  
A little more than halfway through the season and we are on the K storm, but it doesn't seem like an active season. This is probably because the storms this year seem so sickly....and naked.
Quoting 225. Patrap:

Storm total's




"You're an interesting species, an interesting mix. You are capable of such beautiful dreams, and such horrible nightmares. You feel so lost, so cut off, so alone. Only you're not. See, in all our searching, the only thing that we've found that makes the emptiness bearable... is each other."  



Wow. This cant be a good thing. Prayers for Louisiana folks

Note the similarities. If earl had more time over water, they would look exactly the same. Scary.
Sorry wikipedia picture do not show up.
Every season has it's own flair or stamp.

It's kinda like a box of chocolates in a way,ya never know what ya gonna get.



Quoting 159. CapeFearCaner:

9/05 -33.9 78.11/103mph look it up- i'm out


Looked it up [Link]

NOAA & the HURDAT has it at 100 kt and 954 mb [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL061996_Fran.pd f]

6-9/6/1996 0030Z 33.9N 78.0W 100* 3 --- 954 ---- --- NC3 Fran

* in knots
This shows how stretched out Karl is. Getting less organized.

Looks like Karl will be hitchin a ride.


South of 18N?
Quoting 168. SunnyDaysFla:

M
You do realize that is 2 weeks out? I guess wishing can't hurt, but I sure won't plan on it.


Oh, I thought that said 276 seconds, my bad. :P

It's not unreasonable to expect a cooldown the first half of October.
Quoting 232. Bucsboltsfan:

This shows how stretched out Karl is. Getting less organized.




Karl may be ready too open up in to a wave


Mmmmmm
This sure doesn't look like a TD.

As a sidenote comparison in damage cost,the Louisiana flooding cost are now rivaling those of Hurricane Andrew in scope.
Quoting 236. thetwilightzone:



Karl may be ready too open up in to a wave


If that happens then it will go further west.
Quoting 217. JLPR2:

Karl looks complicated.




When I see that "coc" at 14N, I have ONE wish xD
Even if Karl does degenerate into a wave, regeneration is likely considering it will be moving into more favorable conditions, although there are some cases in which a storm degenerated to a wave and never managed to come back.
245. JLPR2
Quoting 237. CaribBoy:



Mmmmmm


That looks interesting, I must admit I wouldn't mind Karl making it closer to me so I at least get some weather.
Quoting 235. CybrTeddy:



Oh, I thought that said 276 seconds, my bad. :P

It's not unreasonable to expect a cooldown the first half of October.


First week of November is more realistic for Tampa.
Julia is probably a low now. NHC has called for it and they are right most and almost all of the time. I better not speak too soon though. Karl will mean business if intensity models are right.
Explosion in Manhattan
looks like some one fell a sleep and for got too put any thing in for Tropical Storm Ian on wikipedia.

Link
Quoting 184. DeepSeaRising:

We judge on looks in America, pretty is worshiped. Who has truth? False realism for women to live up to. Sheep think is considered wisdom. Truth is an absolute, we must seek it. For it is not AGW that will cull the masses; it is man's deception for the Devil himself that will. The hour is late and less than 10% of Humanity have any inkling of.


And out of left field comes DeepSeaRising!

This blog is now about kittens.
252. JRRP7
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...JULIA'S DEMISE IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST

NHC is being funny tonight
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.


seems like they this want it too be over and done with i think that storm is starting too driver them crazy
255. JRRP7
Quoting 253. thetwilightzone:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...JULIA'S DEMISE IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST

NHC is being funny tonight


The year of the raised eyebrows and itchy heads.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...AND YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting 255. JRRP7:




I like it :) Hopefully more and more SOUTH
Quoting 255. JRRP7:




looks like its going this S of the model runs karl is trying too hang on hard will it win or loss too wind shear and dry air
The cool over warm in the MDR is a favorable setup and if that lasts it might help the Cape Verde season stay active a little longer into October

Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.


seems like they this want it too be over and done with i think that storm is starting too driver them crazy


Classic Avila.
This could be one of the reasons the NHC is having a hard time with the demise of Julia. She may not demise as soon as they think

Some peope might be confused with the current models. The GFS is currently showing the 2nd trough picking up Karl. The others do not turn Karl north that quickly . It is very possible that Karl misses the trough and moves much closer to the east coast. The ridge is supposed to build back across the eastern US the end of the week, which could move Karl more west.

This is the GFS ensemble. This does not mean it is definitely going to turn N then NE


.
Quoting 262. Grothar:






Any new premonitions about Karl tonight?
edit: posted before comment#264
Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.


seems like they this want it too be over and done with i think that storm is starting too driver them crazy


As much as I love the NHC's occasional dry humor, I don't like it when they write things like this because to me it undermines the science of these storms and makes the whole process seem subjective. I acknowledge that there are aspects that can be subjective, but at a time when weather is such a political topic, it just seems like comments like these are nothing but ammunition for those who might say that the NHC arbitrarily inflates their statistics or something of the like. I just feel like it undermines the science.
as I said for karl more south, west.
Quoting 258. CaribBoy:



I like it :) Hopefully more and more SOUTH


The ridge is intensifying and moving west tandem with the storm
Quoting 268. TheDeathStar:



The ridge is intensifying and moving west tandem with the storm

More than expected?
BREAKING NEWS
Explosion in Manhattan New York City at least 25 injured
Quoting 266. HurrikanEB:



As much as I love the NHC's occasional dry humor, I don't like it when they write things like this because to me it undermines the science of these storms and makes the whole process seem subjective. I acknowledge that there are aspects that can be subjective, but at a time when weather is such a political topic, it just seems like comments like these are nothing but ammunition for those who might say that the NHC arbitrarily inflates their statistics or something of the like. I just feel like it undermines the science.

Science is not math. There sometimes is no obvious correct answer. Interpretations are subjective. That said we are getting the opinions of the experts.
Quoting 234. Articuno:



South of 18N?
17. 6 N
Quoting 265. SunnyDaysFla:



Any new premonitions about Karl tonight?
edit: posted before comment#264


I don't know. It's not too clear yet. I'll check my source below. I just think that the east coast should monitor Karl closely and watch the 2nd trough.

Quoting 269. nygiants:


More than expected?
yeap, that's what Levi said a few days ago
Quoting 274. TheDeathStar:

yeap, that's what Levi said a few days ago

I am NOT a wishcaster..but does that mean Florida should keep a closer eye on this?
276. IDTH
Quoting 268. TheDeathStar:



The ridge is intensifying and moving west tandem with the storm

The models have underestimated the ridge a lot this year, it would not surprise me in the slightest if they were wrong again.
278. IDTH
Quoting 273. Grothar:



I don't know. It's not too clear yet. I'll check my source below. I just think that the east coast should monitor Karl closely and watch the 2nd trough.



Gro, you got a feeling about this one? There's definitely a lot of potential I see with this one, the question I have is track right now. Too many times it seems this year I've seen the models underestimate the ridge. It'll be interesting to see the timing of the two trough's and whether or not it catches Karl or not.
Quoting 271. SunnyDaysFla:


Science is not math. There sometimes is no obvious correct answer. Interpretations are subjective. That said we are getting the opinions of the experts.


I don't totally disagree, I just favor a more objective characterization of the decision process.
Quoting 266. HurrikanEB:



I acknowledge that there are aspects that can be subjective, but at a time when weather is such a political topic, it just seems like comments like these are nothing but ammunition for those who might say that the NHC arbitrarily inflates their statistics or something of the like.

Who cares? Those people are irrelevant.
Quoting 264. Grothar:

Some peope might be confused with the current models. The GFS is currently showing the 2nd trough picking up Karl. The others do not turn Karl north that quickly . It is very possible that Karl misses the trough and moves much closer to the east coast. The ridge is supposed to build back across the eastern US the end of the week, which could move Karl more west.

This is the GFS ensemble. This does not mean it is definitely going to turn N then NE


.



Especially if Karl stays weak longer then models expect closer to the East Coast is a real possibility, it has dry air issues and a large circulation I don't see it really fully organizing into anything real strong until north of the islands. A lot to watch.
Quoting 278. IDTH:


Gro, you got a feeling about this one? There's definitely a lot of potential I see with this one, the question I have is track right now. Too many times it seems this year I've seen the models underestimate the ridge. It'll be interesting to see the timing of the two trough's and whether or not it catches Karl or not.


When you say too many times times the models have been under estimating the ridge in which storms? Weak waves have continued west which is the norm but no Cape Verde storms have come close to the US.
283. beell
Quoting 266. HurrikanEB:



As much as I love the NHC's occasional dry humor, I don't like it when they write things like this because to me it undermines the science of these storms and makes the whole process seem subjective. I acknowledge that there are aspects that can be subjective, but at a time when weather is such a political topic, it just seems like comments like these are nothing but ammunition for those who might say that the NHC arbitrarily inflates their statistics or something of the like. I just feel like it undermines the science.


Without the feeble attempts at firing convection on a daily basis, Julia would have spun down to a remnant low by now. That is the objective science of Julia. We are fortunate to get a peek at the subjective side of the science and a forecaster's dilemma.

Those that might say the NHC "arbitrarily inflates their statistics" will do so anyway. That's politics.
Quoting 280. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Who cares? Those people are irrelevant.


As long as we still have policy makers who use those arguments, I will beg to differ.
Quoting 278. IDTH:


Gro, you got a feeling about this one? There's definitely a lot of potential I see with this one, the question I have is track right now. Too many times it seems this year I've seen the models underestimate the ridge. It'll be interesting to see the timing of the two trough's and whether or not it catches Karl or not.


I never go with feelings. :) But if we follow the early reports when Karl was still a wave, the NHC and other models hinted that a very strong system was possible, after it moved away from the shear. Conditions will be much better in a few days, and they predicted that quite well. That was one of the reasons I wrote that it would be a tropical storm at least 2 days earlier than most models predicted.

Yes, ID. Timing is going to be critical with this one as concerns the trough. Just looking at some of my little forecast models, and it looks like the ridge will be in very strongly at the end of the week.
Quoting 273. Grothar:



I don't know. It's not too clear yet. I'll check my source below. I just think that the east coast should monitor Karl closely and watch the 2nd trough.



Gro, I have learned that when all the models have the system heading straight towards Florida this far that we wiil more than likely NOT get hit. However, when the models are showing a possible curve to the north, but the system still chugs steadily west, I start to get really nervous. Something about this one has my spidey senses tingling! Plus S Florida is having 90+ temps and the old folks (in Texas where I grew up) always said it takes a storm to blow out the heat. Double checking my hurricane supplies this week.....again.
Quoting 284. HurrikanEB:



As long as we still have policy makers who use those arguments, I will beg to differ.

Policy makers will use asinine arguments with or without help. Don't forget Senator Inhofe used a snowball to 'disprove' global warming.
This isn't a forecast but there is an incredible amount of high wind shear between Karl and the US.
SAL is choking Karl.
291. beell
I think there is some confusion.

Can someone post a graphic showing this "first" trough? The big continential trough later on would be the failsafe if Karl does not follow the ridge break.

From the 11PM EDT "Karl" discussion.

The center of Karl is moving south of due west at about 10 kt. A
general westward motion at a slightly faster pace is expected
during the next day or two while Karl is steered by the flow on the
south side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is
predicted beyond a couple of days as Karl moves on the southwestern
periphery of the ridge and toward a weakness.
292. IDTH
Quoting 285. Grothar:



I never go with feelings. :) But if we follow the early reports when Karl was still a wave, the NHC and other models hinted that a very strong system was possible, after it moved away from the shear. Conditions will be much better in a few days, and they predicted that quite well. That was one of the reasons I wrote that it would be a tropical storm at least 2 days earlier than most models predicted.

Yes, ID. Timing is going to be critical with this one as concerns the trough. Just looking at some of my little forecast models, and it looks like the ridge will be in very strongly at the end of the week.

Absolutely, I don't think there will be much questioning about the intensity of Karl. It's just the timing which is going to be huge with track that has me thinking.

You are smart to not go with your feelings, but my gut feeling is something I tend to never count out. It's kind of like Sar's magic 8 ball.
will be interesting to see how far south Karl meanders, farther south it goes and weaker it stays, more west it will shift. Looking at the dry air and Sheer ahead of it, won't expect any type of improvement for a couple days, will depend on how far south/west it goes and how fast. Definitely one to watch for south florida.
294. MahFL
Quoting 288. Bucsboltsfan:

This isn't a forecast but there is an incredible amount of high wind shear between Karl and the US.


Not between Karl and Key West, it's not that bad.
guys if karl be comes a hurricane and if there is shear the shear will be moveing away from it not with it the shear dos not stay in one place it moves around with the storm it may not do it with weaker storms but with stornger storms shear will not be march of a issue for karl
Quoting 275. nygiants:


I am NOT a wishcaster..but does that mean Florida should keep a closer eye on this?


Yep, the wunderground models are predicting a 100 knot winds strom ,yipes!

And also, the tracks are starting to go more west instead of the NorthEast motion that we were seeing.
297. JLPR2
Very open to the south, if this keeps up Karl could loose its tropical cyclone designation on the next update.

Quoting 244. Patrap:




THIS says it all...an image that's truly worth a thousand words...its looking more likely that the Leeward islands will get some significant weather from Karl; hopefully not much more intense sometime down the road.

God Bless!
Quoting 282. Bucsboltsfan:



When you say too many times times the models have been under estimating the ridge in which storms? Weak waves have continued west which is the norm but no Cape Verde storms have come close to the US.
Hermien was a cape verd storm.!!
Quoting 295. thetwilightzone:

guys if karl be comes a hurricane and if there is shear the shear will be moveing away from it not with it the shear dos not stay in one place it moves around with the storm it may not do it with weaker storms but with stornger storms shear will not be march of a issue for karl


How old are you? I think you should use spell check the next time you post anything. Check your spelling dude.
This is 384 Hours out in time.
This is the shear 384 hours out in time.
Quoting 300. HurriHistory:



How old are you? I think you should use spell check the next time you post anything. Check your spelling dude.
How old are YOU? You take the time to embarrass someone, but you are just embarrassing yourself.
Looks like you should get some rain tomorrow> Please?

Quoting 258. CaribBoy:



I like it :) Hopefully more and more SOUTH
well, that looks like a cluster ????.

Quoting 277. Grothar:




Quoting 304. swflurker:

Looks like you should get some rain tomorrow> Please?




Dry weather is expected for sunday. However we got some heavy thundershowers saturday (over 2").
Hey Dude, that's Taz!

Quoting 300. HurriHistory:



How old are you? I think you should use spell check the next time you post anything. Check your spelling dude.
I thought you were on that island to the east of PR? If not, my bad!

Quoting 306. CaribBoy:



Dry weather is expected for sunday. However we got some heavy thundershowers saturday (over 2").

Quoting 209. washingtonian115:

Of course Joe would cheer for Karl to miss the trough.Sandy didn't satisfy his thirst of complete catastrophe along the east coast because it was not a cat 3 plowing into New York city.Our local mets have been advertising that we may see the first real signs of fall soon.


I still have no idea why anyone actually considers Bastardi a credible forecaster. Never mind the possible moral implications of what he said.

EPac 17 E, soon-to-be Paine.
Quoting 305. swflurker:

well, that looks like a cluster ????.


Julia wants to visit Florida again no matter what. She had a delightful trip there I imagine. :)
Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.


seems like they this want it too be over and done with i think that storm is starting too driver them crazy


Got to love Avila
To paraphrase Patrap, please consider that there is some very bad mojo in the air for the period between 9/23 and 10/2. It might not translate into weather-related problems, but those potentialities do exist, certainly, from both Karl and even, gahh... Julia.

So just a fair word of warning... keep your heads down and your eyes up, and if you're not prepared for mass strangeness already, please do so, and soon. It certainly can't hurt anyone to be prepared for the worst of times, can it?

Jo
Its been kind of slow here for a couple days so I just wanted to add that my friends are meeting me in Miami and then Key West for some fun and fishing, so the chances for wind/rain and high seas probably increased by at least a scientific 30%.
316. JRRP7
no way
Quoting 303. southernstorm:

How old are YOU? You take the time to embarrass someone, but you are just embarrassing yourself.
especially on a weather blog pffft.. the grammar nazi exist everywhere i tell you EVERYWHERE.. the spelling wasnt even that serious -_-
Quoting 300. HurriHistory:



How old are you? I think you should use spell check the next time you post anything. Check your spelling dude.


Did it never occur to you that Taz just might have some sort of cognitive dysfunction that causes him to spell like that? I don't mind policing grammar, but holy crap dude.

And the people who liked your post are even worse. I know that at least ONE of them has been here for awhile already.
Quoting 300. HurriHistory:



How old are you? I think you should use spell check the next time you post anything. Check your spelling dude.

Take on the content please. For one, juveniles tend to not do shear. For another, this is the internet age. I had to drop my grammarnaziness decades ago :)
Quoting 319. cRRKampen:

 For another, this is the internet age. I had to drop my grammarnaziness decades ago :)


I don't uh... think that's actually a legitimate reason to drop basic grammar. >_>
Taz and Vis have a unique approach to English at times. I love reading both their
posts.
5:00 am - "Surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback."

"Half of what I say is meaningless
But I say it just to reach you, Julia
Julia, Julia, oceanchild, calls me
So I sing a song of love, Julia
Julia, seashell eyes, windy smile, calls me
So I sing a song of love, Julia"
~ Beatles
Any one talks about my spelling will earn a spot on my ignore list have a great night. I be back in the am too see oh else I need too add

You guy really need too learn too worry about yourself and yourself only and not too start trouble for other blogger on here but I gust you get it some day

Back in the Am. Bye
RE Taz's spelling: It's better than it used to be ..... let's not be so judgemental....
Noisy night for Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas.
326. elioe
Good, sunny Sunday afternoon all! Currently relatively warm here at Tampere, Finland, with +12 Celsius.

Doom on the horizon?

327. elioe
Blog hole?
Quoting 309. KoritheMan:



I still have no idea why anyone actually considers Bastardi a credible forecaster. Never mind the possible moral implications of what he said.

Oh, you mean Little Bastardi, is he still denying the science of global warming?
Or has that funding run its course.
well...shiver me timbers
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located a few hundred miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Karl, located nearly
midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large, but disorganized
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the
Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

Julia is looking robust this morning
Malakas looking great!
http://en.sat24.com/en/jp
https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imager y/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2016262021500-20162 62022000.2km.jpg
good/morning.....julia.vigorous
shear tendency
Good morning. First pics from Itbayat, the tiny Philippinian island which had been swallowed by the eye of super typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) last week!

LOOK | First glimpse of Itbayat from the air after Super Typhoon Ferdie
By: Kit Stephen Agad, for InterAksyon, September 18, 2016 2:19 PM, ALL PHOTOS BELOW BY KIT STEPHEN AGAD.
MANILA - Itbayat Island was cut off from almost all communication since it took a direct hit from Typhoon Ferdie on September 15.
These photos were taken at an altitude of 1,500 feet through aircraft windows.
The principal objective of the reconnaissance flight was to assess the damage to the town and to the airstrip, and to provide initial information to the Philippine Air Force as guidance for flying in more equipment.
Images were slightly digitally enhanced to bring out more details. The quality of lighting was really bad, and the turbulence didn't help.
The flight was made possible by Wakay Air and AirSWIFT. Aircraft used was an ATR42-600 RP-C4202.






More photos see link above or on facebook. Obviously they didn't land during this first flight of assessment, so no detailed news about the folks on Itbayat or words from eyewitnesses yet. In the photo gallery you see landslides and damaged houses, but - all together - the impression of conditions isn't too bad, IMHO, when you take into consideration, that the island "received a direct hit from Super Typhoon Meranti at Category 5 strength with 185 mph winds" (blog entry). Hope I'm right!

I don't care about the spelling, really, but I sure would like to see folks a little kinder to each other. Not a place to be snarky. So what can we expect from Julia? She knocked down a tall tree that took out my electricity for hours the first time around.
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:

Of course Joe would cheer for Karl to miss the trough.Sandy didn't satisfy his thirst of complete catastrophe along the east coast because it was not a cat 3 plowing into New York city.Our local mets have been advertising that we may see the first real signs of fall soon.
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:

Of course Joe would cheer for Karl to miss the trough.Sandy didn't satisfy his thirst of complete catastrophe along the east coast because it was not a cat 3 plowing into New York city.Our local mets have been advertising that we may see the first real signs of fall soon.
Please, why would you say something as d*** as that. He is just reporting the storms track as he see's it, which is better then anyone else on this blog. Please unless you have the magic 8 ball, which will predict the storm tracks of future hurricanes, lets just sit back and see what develops.
Quoting 211. nygiants:


Not saying i disagree, but if there is no trough deepenough, how come models are turning it? (Besides for ridge)
They are turning it because this is what a lot of hurricanes due this time of year, but I believe this storm will not be as strong as the models say, and the strength of the trough will not be a intense as the models predict, which has been very common especially with The GFS this year and forever. So a weaker storm stays further South, thus missing the weaker trough, and continues West into the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf.
Quoting 213. Bucsboltsfan:



Then these are all wrong?


Yes, as I explained earlier.
neutral season
Quoting 226. washingaway:

A little more than halfway through the season and we are on the K storm, but it doesn't seem like an active season. This is probably because the storms this year seem so sickly....and naked.
Very true, something is and has been very wrong with the atmosphere in the Atlantic basin the past few years.
Quoting 337. NativeSun:

Please, why would you say something as d*** as that. He is just reporting the storms track as he see's it, which is better then anyone else on this blog. Please unless you have the magic 8 ball, which will predict the storm tracks of future hurricanes, lets just sit back and see what develops.
Why won't you stop ___ kissing.He said Hanna from 08 was going to ride up the east coast as a cat 3.That didn't come to pass so then he moved on to Bill from 09 as a possible east coast disaster.Next it was Earl from 2010.Irene and Sandy didn't satisfy him because they weren't majors plowing up the coast.Every met on every local station is forecasting a cool down thanks to a trough that will be responsible for taking Karl OTS.
Quoting 338. NativeSun:

They are turning it because this is what a lot of hurricanes due this time of year, but I believe this storm will not be as strong as the models say, and the strength of the trough will not be a intense as the models predict, which has been very common especially with The GFS this year and forever. So a weaker storm stays further South, thus missing the weaker trough, and continues West into the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf.




Quoting 337. NativeSun:

Please, why would you say something as d*** as that. He is just reporting the storms track as he see's it, which is better then anyone else on this blog. Please unless you have the magic 8 ball, which will predict the storm tracks of future hurricanes, lets just sit back and see what develops.
Good Morning
Surprised when I saw Julia this morning. Thinking that huge burst of convection will die off, however now the NHC says it could strengthen. Raising eyebrows and scratching head AGAIN
Why do many say there is something wrong with the Atlantic? i don't get it. Is it possible for the atmosphere or the ocean conditions to be wrong? It's just a state; neither right nor wrong. A state that may not be, but should be understood as being in a constant state of flux. ...maybe i'm just being semantically picky about the term 'wrong'?
:)~ wishing everyone a great day regardless.
Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Why won't you stop ___ kissing.He said Hanna from 08 was going to ride up the east coast as a cat 3.That didn't come to pass so then he moved on to Bill from 09 as a possible east coast disaster.Next it was Earl from 2010.Irene and Sandy didn't satisfy him because they weren't majors plowing up the coast.Every met on every local station is forecasting a cool down thanks to a trough that will be responsible for taking Karl OTS.


Also don't forget his embarrassing Arctic Ice predictions, and his general compete lack of scientific understanding of climate. I do know that some people have an economic investment in him and continue to pay him $24.99 a month to get premiumly lied to. Weather entertainment isn't a field I can say I particularly enjoy.
Good morning still trying the shear from the north now..
Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Why won't you stop ___ kissing.He said Hanna from 08 was going to ride up the east coast as a cat 3.That didn't come to pass so then he moved on to Bill from 09 as a possible east coast disaster.Next it was Earl from 2010.Irene and Sandy didn't satisfy him because they weren't majors plowing up the coast.Every met on every local station is forecasting a cool down thanks to a trough that will be responsible for taking Karl OTS.
Lets just see what happens, that all, at least he is a really meteorologist with a very good insight into long range forecasting, something the NHC will never due, as that is not their job. Yes he is wrong sometimes, just like everyone else, but for someone to criticize him or anyone else with his credentials is really to funny and s****d. So good day to you fine lady, and keep wishing away.
HOLY CRAP Julia is going all beast mode and sh**
read what some are saying. those models will change, environment will not be the same then....
Not a good vorticity signature with Karl, possible it will be downgraded to a TD or could open up in next 24 hours

LOL - What's the CTCI seeing for Julia that the others aren't?
CTCI is an experimental model from the Navy's COAMPS-TC.
RRx in a 24-hour period in Taïwan (Typhoon Malakas) :
305.0 mm at Youkeng on 17 September 2016 (0-24h)

Highest gust recorded: 240.5 km/h (66.8 m/s) at Yonaguni-jima (Japan, Okinawa) on 17 September 2016 (10h06).
Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Why won't you stop ___ kissing.He said Hanna from 08 was going to ride up the east coast as a cat 3.That didn't come to pass so then he moved on to Bill from 09 as a possible east coast disaster.Next it was Earl from 2010.Irene and Sandy didn't satisfy him because they weren't majors plowing up the coast.Every met on every local station is forecasting a cool down thanks to a trough that will be responsible for taking Karl OTS.


I read JB's blog daily. If you did the same, you would know just how silly you sound. He is not mongering for the east coast to get demolished. He is very good at what he does and he takes a stab at long range forecasting when no one else has the guts to do it.
These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.
There goes Julia getting all exposed again.
Quoting 348. Hester122:

HOLY CRAP Julia is going all beast mode and sh**


Not hardly.
Quoting 354. PensacolaDoug:



I read JB's blog daily. If you did the same, you would know just how silly you sound. He is not mongering for the east coast to get demolished. He is very good at what he does and he takes a stab at long range forecasting when no one else has the guts to do it.
I see the JB fan club is out in full force.I use to feel sorry for you but now I see why you get attacked in the manner that you do.Saying on national television that Hanna was going to possibly be a cat 3 when even the NHC at the the time was not forecasting that isn't fear mongering? Oh please.
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:



Did it never occur to you that Taz just might have some sort of cognitive dysfunction that causes him to spell like that? I don't mind policing grammar, but holy crap dude.

And the people who liked your post are even worse. I know that at least ONE of them has been here for awhile already.


Thanks Kori. Personal attacks are just sad
Quoting 323. thetwilightzone:

Any one talks about my spelling will earn a spot on my ignore list have a great night. I be back in the am too see oh else I need too add

You guy really need too learn too worry about yourself and yourself only and not too start trouble for other blogger on here but I gust you get it some day

Back in the Am. Bye


I enjoy reading your posts and your opinion.
Quoting 354. PensacolaDoug:



I read JB's blog daily. If you did the same, you would know just how silly you sound. He is not mongering for the east coast to get demolished. He is very good at what he does and he takes a stab at long range forecasting when no one else has the guts to do it.


It doesn't take guts to make long range deterministic forecasts that show no skill. It just takes good marketing to get people to keep buying into it with ideas like "the gutsy meteorologist".
Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.

Per about 30 years frequency.
2016 hurricane season in a nutshell.

And yes i know 2016 was able to produce this:

But again is a little crazy how slow this season has been.
Sep 18 16

Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.

Per about 30 years frequency.
Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.

Per about 30 years frequency.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
No hurricanes in Atlantic since Sep. 2 - the 7th time in satellite era (since 1966) that 9/3-9/17 had 0 hurricanes.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season remains anemic-only 75% of normal to date for ACE. About 40% of avg season to go
i guess jb does not offer free videos anymore. oh well his loss. looks like Julia will be wandering till next weekend just off the east coast
TD Julia...

karl gfs has him take julias spot just offshore the bahamas. barely a cyclone.
Good Morning Everyone..

I can honestly say I have never seen my area go from being in the cone to out of the cone to go back in the cone so many times for one system..NHC should just circle the entire east coast because Julia don't know where she wants to go..

Interesting hurricane season indeed..


372. tj175
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

ANDREW CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES...ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CREW OF THE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO LOCATE A
CENTER...HOWEVER A 54 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE 5000 FT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST DAYLIGHT RECON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ON THE SURFACE.

THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NMC GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL...AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...INSISTS THAT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF ANDREW
CAN SURVIVE UNTIL THAT TIME. IT IS ALSO WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE AVN MODEL WINDS AT 200 MB LOOK REALISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CIRRUS LEVEL MOTIONS AROUND THE STORM. THIS
MIGHT GIVE SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE MODEL FORECAST. AGAIN...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WITHSTAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX
HOURS EARLIER...IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE STATISTICALLY-BASED OBJECTIVE
AIDS...NHC90 AND CLIPER...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...QLM AND BAM.
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TURNS ANDREW MORE NORTHWARD. THE AVN MODEL
PREDICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 62.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 23.3N 64.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.3N 66.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.8N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 70.0W 55 KTS


TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016

The structure of Karl has kept a similar appearance for some time
now with a small area of convection flaring up and down near the
center, with a larger mass of thunderstorms following the center in
the northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt
using the last TAFB satellite estimate.

Karl's disorganized low-level structure will likely prevent much
intensification in the short term. However the environment
near the tropical cyclone is likely to become conducive for
strengthening within a couple of days due to lower shear, slightly
more moisture, and warmer sea surface temperatures. The intensity
guidance is very similar to the previous model cycle, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 255/10. A large subtropical high
over the central Atlantic should provide a fairly well-defined
steering current for the tropical storm over the next several days.
This ridge will likely turn Karl to the west later today and to the
west-northwest by early Tuesday through the end of the period.

Other than a small westward adjustment through 72 hours, the new
NHC track is similar to the previous one, near a model consensus
favoring the faster GFS/ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.7N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 18.6N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 19.3N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.9N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 26.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.


The trend points to us being in a negative AMO, though; more frequent El Nino's, warmer subtropics, active Pacific, and now a positive PDO.
Sexy setup.
Update to comment #335 with aerial pics from Itbayat:

WOW! Such good news! :-)))

Zero casualty: Government reaches isolated Batanes island

'We will treat rehabilitation in Batanes with urgency' says Undersecretary Ricardo Jalad, NDRRMC chief
Rappler, Published 8:24 PM, September 18, 2016
BATANES, Philippines - A day after relief goods were airlifted to the provincial capital of Basco, disaster officials reached Typhoon Ferdie's (Meranti) ground zero, which has been isolated after the storm hit the province. Bad weather and strong waves had prevented responders from reaching the island.
"I felt relieved that the situation there wasn't as bad as we expected," Undersecretary Ricardo Jalad, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) executive director, told Rappler.
On Sunday, September 18, Jalad, together with Social Welfare Assistant Secretary Hope Hervilla, Batanes Governor Malou Cayco, and Representative Henedina Abad flew to Itbayat town to check the situation of the residents there and to bring relief goods.
Like in other affected towns in Batanes, Jalad said, there was no reported casualty in Itbayat. ...

More see link above.


Itbayat airport. Source.
Quoting 356. PensacolaDoug:

There goes Julia getting all exposed again.



She needs to stop pivoting.
There goes that stupid break down again!
I think Julia might become a TS again by today. In the next few days, the steering currents look like they will remain weak, but anywhere from NC to northern Florida should watch closely.
Quoting 358. washingtonian115:

I see the JB fan club is out in full force.I use to feel sorry for you but now I see why you get attacked in the manner that you do.Saying on national television that Hanna was going to possibly be a cat 3 when even the NHC at the the time was not forecasting that isn't fear mongering? Oh please.
You need to work on your insults. Good luck with that.
00z UKMET shows Julia going up SC to VA and then starts heading back down south those same coasts..18z HWRF run depicted this last night very well while showing Julia making landfall in SC TWICE..





Will check in later..
Quoting 362. Naga5000:



It doesn't take guts to make long range deterministic forecasts that show no skill. It just takes good marketing to get people to keep buying into it with ideas like "the gutsy meteorologist".

Yeah we have "gutsy meteorologists" (or want to be mets) in this blog. They make dramatic predictions (usually hyperbole) that are almost always wrong.
But every once in a while they get a forecast right (1 out of 10 maybe if they're lucky) and they brag about it. The 90% of the time they are completely wrong, they remain silent and move on to the next forecast.
383. IKE
Quoting 367. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
No hurricanes in Atlantic since Sep. 2 - the 7th time in satellite era (since 1966) that 9/3-9/17 had 0 hurricanes.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season remains anemic-only 75% of normal to date for ACE. About 40% of avg season to go

And it looks to be hurricane free for at least a few more days.
Julia needs to be RIP.
Quoting 362. Naga5000:



It doesn't take guts to make long range deterministic forecasts that show no skill. It just takes good marketing to get people to keep buying into it with ideas like "the gutsy meteorologist".
Sure it does! Long range equals low percentage. Putting your rep on the line everyday. Not for the faint hearted. But it's pointless debating it here.
Quoting 271. SunnyDaysFla:


Science is not math. There sometimes is no obvious correct answer. Interpretations are subjective. That said we are getting the opinions of the experts.


Wrong. Science strives for an objective and unbiased analysis. If you lack the evidence and research to support a hypothesis, then it remains an unsupported hypothesis until you do. A hypothesis does not graduate to a theory based on a "subjective interpretation". Otherwise, ludicrous assertions like Trump's "AGW is a hoax perpetrated by China to sabotage the US economy" would be just as valid as the scientific conclusions produced by the work of thousands of scientists in the IPCC reports.

Opinion, no matter who gives it, is not science. Experts can and do provide educated guesses and opinions based on their experience and knowledge, but they are still just guesses and opinions.
Quoting 380. GeoffreyWPB:





My forecast involves Karl becoming a C3, weakening to a C1 when it starts moving east, weakening to a depression a bit later, becoming a tropical storm right over the island of Madeira FINALLY A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR ME, and almost landfalling Africa, as a TD.
Quoting 379. PensacolaDoug:

You need to work on your insults. Good luck with that.
Haha you think if the blog didn't have a policy where foul language/personal attacks were not allowed my response would look like that? I reworded it to avoid a ban and possibly a permanent ban.Thanks Naga for pulling up that Article.
Quoting 383. IKE:


And it looks to be hurricane free for at least a few more days.
Julia needs to be RIP.


I been saying that since yesterday. But the NHC wont let her go.
Obviously weakening Meranti was far worse for China than for "ground-zero"-island Itbayat and its neighbours in the Philippines, at least concerning death toll (sure, way more people living in China than in Batanes Islands, but nevertheless):
Dozens dead and missing after typhoon lashes eastern China
Typhoon Meranti has damaged more than 18,300 houses and caused direct economic losses of more than 16.9bn yuan ($2.5bn)
AP/Guardian, Sunday 18 September 2016 03.40 BST
The strongest typhoon to hit China this year has left 28 people dead and 15 others missing in the east of the country....
Quoting 338. NativeSun:

They are turning it because this is what a lot of hurricanes due this time of year, but I believe this storm will not be as strong as the models say, and the strength of the trough will not be a intense as the models predict, which has been very common especially with The GFS this year and forever. So a weaker storm stays further South, thus missing the weaker trough, and continues West into the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf.


The trough expected to dig east of Newfoundland next week has been progressively deepening and slowing down in most of the guidance over the past few days as the forecasted z500 configuration is expected to become highly amplified over North America-North Atlantic in several days thanks in part to a robust wave packet that is being induced by Malakas recurvature & acceleration/extension of the Pacific jet. In addition, the Azores-Bermuda high is liable to rebuild to the east-southeast of Karl by the mid-latter portions of next week as it closes in on Bermuda, in spite of the relatively weaker steering currents, this should promulgate large-scale southwesterly flow aloft over Karl and help push it along northeastward into the westerlies. Hence the probability for recurvature of Karl is increasing despite what Joe Bastardi wants you to believe...


391. IKE
Quoting 388. K8eCane:



I been saying that since yesterday. But the NHC wont let her go.


I think they will at 11am.
I've been watching Epac and TS Paine looks very encouraging for CA to receive some moisture soon. Let's hope this system can produce much needed rains for CA's drought!
Quoting 391. IKE:


I think they will at 11am.


LOL yep I thought so yesterday at 11 am. Maybe today. Who knows? This season is crazy. I'm beginning to think Karl may not make it either. Beautiful sunny day here in Wilmington. Some low hanging clouds occasionally but certainly not what i would expect to see with a tropical system offshore.
Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.


I'm not sure why you didn't use an updated version of this chart to include 2014 & 2015....


From Klotzbach, Gray, and Fogarty (2015)
Link
Quoting 355. isothunder67:

These periods of Atlantic downtime, in other words what looks to be below average years for the Atlantic hurricane season are not uncommon. No need to {worry/not worry} about the Atlantic active period coming to an end.

This ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) chart explains my case:

Notice the intervals of hypoactivity and hyperactivity through out the years.

I personally agree. If Karl turns out to be the major hurricane like some models are predicting, it could boost our ACE quite a bit and possibly get us back up to normal, maybe even slightly above normal.

And for those complaining about weak storms: Not every storm in an Atlantic hurricane season is going to be intense. There's a reason why 13 storms in 2005 did not become hurricanes.
Quoting 388. K8eCane:



I been saying that since yesterday. But the NHC wont let her go.



She might have a little punch left.
398. IKE
And they kept Julia a TD. WTH?
From NHC on Karl's discussion:
"Although Karl's convective pattern is currently somewhat disheveled
due to the hostile shear and dry mid-level conditions that the
cyclone has been encountering the past several days, the surface
wind field has remained remarkably robust
, including a tight
inner-core. The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the vertical
wind shear to decrease to less than 5 kt from 24-120 hours, which
favors a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving
29-30C SSTs during that time."
Seems like Karl opening up into a wave is becoming less likely.
Quoting 397. Grothar:



She might have a little punch left.


I have very deep respect for the forecasters at the NHC. I may possibly be tempted to spike my water bottle if I were one of them
What's about to happen in "Mid-earth" Sea is spectacular.
Quoting 395. Webberweather53:


Whoops :P


Karl
Quoting 387. washingtonian115:

Haha you think if the blog didn't have a policy where foul language/personal attacks were not allowed my response would look like that? I reworded it to avoid a ban and possibly a permanent ban.Thanks Naga for pulling up that Article.


Classy!
SAL is gone. Perfect for a TC trying to develop close to the Lesser Antilles.......
Quoting 398. IKE:

And they kept Julia a TD. WTH?
This is because she was the most organized she's been in days last night. She had an organized area of convection over the circulation and in bands to the west. The system has to remain without convection for a extended period of time to be declared post tropical. Julia always gets close to that time frame then reorganizes for a 6 or so hour period before falling apart again.

Also with shear dropping later today through tomorrow it wouldn't be prudent to declare her post tropical only for her to spin up with tonight's round of convection into a 35 to even 45 mph storm right at North Carolinas door steps. They even admitted in the 11am discussion they were lower than the model forecast and they were probably going to need to send the hurricane hunters out there tomorrow to confirm the true intensity.

From the 11am forecast discussion:

The intensity forecast is a little tricky due to the rapidly
decreasing shear conditions that the models are forecasting to occur
during the next 24 hours or so. The current 25-30 kt of northerly
vertical wind shear is expected to decrease to 10-15 kt from the
southwest by Monday morning, which would support a repeat of strong
convective development and spinup of the vortex, similar to what
occurred overnight
, especially since Julia will be moving over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream at that time.
The intensity
forecast is identical to the previous advisory and remains on the
low side of the guidance near the LGEM model. However, due to the
possibility of the cyclone being a little stronger than forecast,
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been tentatively tasked
to investigate Julia tomorrow afternoon.
front will not pull karl ots. and look at #386 only few curve out.
Quoting 396. HurricaneFan:


I personally agree. If Karl turns out to be the major hurricane like some models are predicting, it could boost our ACE quite a bit and possibly get us back up to normal, maybe even slightly above normal.

And for those complaining about weak storms: Not every storm in an Atlantic hurricane season is going to be intense. There's a reason why 13 storms in 2005 did not become hurricanes.
Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits
Karl is in a giant hole of otherwise subsiding air in the eastern Atlantic.

Also I'm not sure how my last comment appears to everyone. Down my end it's showing the blog eating random words and changing the formatting. But I think it gets the point across of what I believe the NHC is thinking in respect to Julia.
Quoting 410. HurricaneKing:

Also I'm not sure how my last comment appears to everyone. Down my end it's showing the blog eating random words and changing the formatting. But I think it gets the point across of what I believe the NHC is thinking in respect to Julia.

As an outsider looking in, it seems to me they have a difficult job.
Fall about to make a big showcase very soon.
Quoting 326. elioe:

Good, sunny Sunday afternoon all! Currently relatively warm here at Tampere, Finland, with +12 Celsius.

Doom on the horizon?



I know that this forever and a day away, but I have a question. What does climatology say about where this would end up? Don't the October systems move NE into FL?
Quoting 399. HurricaneFan:

From NHC on Karl's discussion:
"Although Karl's convective pattern is currently somewhat disheveled
due to the hostile shear and dry mid-level conditions that the
cyclone has been encountering the past several days, the surface
wind field has remained remarkably robust
, including a tight
inner-core. The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the vertical
wind shear to decrease to less than 5 kt from 24-120 hours, which
favors a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving
29-30C SSTs during that time."
Seems like Karl opening up into a wave is becoming less likely.

Seems quite possible Karl could RI if dry air isn't a problem
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 399. HurricaneFan:

From NHC on Karl's discussion:
"Although Karl's convective pattern is currently somewhat disheveled
due to the hostile shear and dry mid-level conditions that the
cyclone has been encountering the past several days, the surface
wind field has remained remarkably robust
, including a tight
inner-core. The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the vertical
wind shear to decrease to less than 5 kt from 24-120 hours, which
favors a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving
29-30C SSTs during that time."
Seems like Karl opening up into a wave is becoming less likely.

Interesting discussion, still think it will take a few days to really get going dry air should stil hinder significant strengthening
Quoting 411. K8eCane:


As an outsider looking in, it seems to me they have a difficult job.


I'd say they do with pretty much any storm. There will always be people second guessing them because its the nature of the game. Heck we see it on here all the time. Yes sometimes they are off... but even being the experts in the field they are human. In this case they are hedging that she will enjoy the lower shear values tonight that will last until the upper trough catches her.
Remember 92-L ? We are still getting rains from its remnants in S. Louisiana.
Quoting 358. washingtonian115:

I see the JB fan club is out in full force.I use to feel sorry for you but now I see why you get attacked in the manner that you do.Saying on national television that Hanna was going to possibly be a cat 3 when even the NHC at the the time was not forecasting that isn't fear mongering? Oh please.
Oh please everyone is wrong, no one is always right including the NHC. He is the best long range forecaster their is, as the NHC does not delve into long rang4 forecast. For someone who is a rank amateur weather person at best, you have very little ground to stand on, and guess what, he was right about Joaquin, ad quite a few others. So stop with your nonsense, and move along.
Quoting 384. PensacolaDoug:

Sure it does! Long range equals low percentage. Putting your rep on the line everyday. Not for the faint hearted. But it's pointless debating it here.
That's for sure, too many s****d weather wannabe's here.