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Judge restricts NOAA hurricane hunter jet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on July 03, 2006

There is little worth mentioning in the tropics today. The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore into Texas. A strong tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands, but is under 30 knots of westerly wind shear that will prohibit development. A large area of cloudiness off the east coast of Florida is also under high wind shear. Tropical storm development in the Atlantic is unlikely for at least the next two days.

Judge restricts NOAA hurricane hunter jet
A federal labor judge ruled Friday that the high-altitude NOAA Gulfstream jet cannot fly into the core region of hurricanes any more. The judge ruled in favor of the NOAA's labor union, which argued that flying the jet into the core of a hurricane, even at high altitude where turbulence is generally light, posed an unacceptable risk to the crew.


Figure 1.The NOAA Aircraft Operations Center's Gulfstream IV jet, nicknamed "Gonzo" after the Muppets character, operates out of MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. Image credit: NOAA.

The NOAA jet generally files at altitudes of 43,000 feet around the periphery of hurricanes, dropping dozens of dropsonde probes that fall on parachutes through the storm that radio back information on temperature, winds, pressure, and humidity. These measurements have been shown to improve track forecasts of hurricanes by as much as 25%, and are crucial to the Hurricane Center's operational forecasts. Generally, the NOAA jet avoids the central core area of a hurricane, where the potential for dangerous turbulence is highest. However, in 2003 the NOAA jet flew into the eye of Hurricane Fabian near Bermuda, by entering through a large gap in the eyewall. Flights into the core regions of Tropical Storm Emily and Franklin in 2005 were also performed, although in all these cases the aircraft was careful to avoid penetrating thunderstorms, and just flew through the high cirrus clouds of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Nevertheless, the union argued that such flights were too dangerous, and collected little valuable data.

The Gulf Stream IV jet is a much different king of aircraft than the low-altitude P-3 and C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft, which can shrug off the moderate turbulence one typically finds in hurricane clouds. Moderate turbulence poses a much higher risk to the Gulfstream IV jet, because is flies so much faster. Flying through CDO in the core region of a hurricane presents an increased risk of moderate turbulence, due to the presence of strong wave-like features that propagate through this region. I question whether this increased risk is worthy of causing a ban on all flights into the core region of a hurricane, because in nearly all cases this can be safely accomplished if the crew and pilot exercise good judgment. However, as a member of a crew that once exercised bad judgment in deciding to penetrate Hurricane Hugo's eyewall, I can certainly sympathize with the union's case.

While the new ruling will not significantly affect the Gulfstream IV jet's current ability to provide improved data in support of better hurricane forecasts, it may substantially affect its future role. An airborne Doppler radar system was due to be installed on the NOAA jet by 2009. Data from this radar would be of most value if the jet could fly into the inner core region of hurricanes. With the jet now restricted from going to where the radar data would be of most value, the plans for the new radar may have to be scrapped. This is not necessarily a bad thing, since the heavy new radar would substantially reduce the the flight altitude of the jet. This would significantly decrease the value of the dropsonde data, since the probes would not be able to sample the upper reaches of the storm any more. In the end, the union's victory may turn out to be a positive for all concerned.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Interesting, thanks for the info. Jeff.
Why not just acquire and outfit a jet that is capable of handling ALL the mission capabilities? I assume the only concern is acquisition cost, which seems increadibly modest compared to the sums spent on hurricane evac and relief last year alone......
Zap
spelling error King of aircraft should be kind of aircraft. Remove this post when corrected
Jeff, I remember reading about this incident when it happened. I glad your still with us.
BTW be careful about not endorsing the unions policy absolutely. Last night I mentioned how this decision upset me and got flamed for being unamerican etc.
Tx
Is this bad or good?!
Zaphod, the weight carried by the Gulfstream is significantly more than they would want on the C130s. I actually got a look inside one of the Gulfstreams (off-season, most of the stuff was unloaded), and it was totally stuffed. Even with a jet, they can't hold everything they need.

Personally, I think the ruling was stupid. If you want to avoid danger...don't fly into hurricanes!

Oh and not that anyone cares, but:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021700 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1300 AM EDT SUN 02 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1500Z C. 04/0300Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 28.5N 96.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 2300Z E. 04/0530Z TO 1230Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

Colby I believe those recon flights were cancelled...

NOUS42 KNHC 031330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 03 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RMH

456, its not a great disaster, but isn't good. I don't know if it can't be appealed or not.Maybe they can and that will keep them flying this year.
Wow, they must have updated RIGHT after I posted that. That was a direct copy+paste from NHC.
Can someone please instruct how to access previous blogs with comments as recently I only get the current one.Thanks in advance.--Caymanite.
Uh...never mind. Rw, that's *tomorrow's* flightplan. They're flying TODAY.
In all honesty, even though I can't stand unions as a rule(for reasons such as this), an arguement can be made for having planes devoted to each segment of hurricane hunting Its possible to try to do too much with each plane.
Tx
Caymanite, look over on your right, they'll be a section for past blogs organized by month. I hope this helps.
The flights are not cancelled; here is the plan for today:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1300 AM EDT SUN 02 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1500Z C. 04/0300Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 28.5N 96.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 2300Z E. 04/0530Z TO 1230Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND.


For tomorrow:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 03 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE

No flights for tomorrow because, as noted for today, it will move inland.
Looks like the next shuttle launch is in real jepardy. Seem some foam issues have popped up.
Am I the only who thinks it mightbe time for new generation of craft.
Colby,
Thanks for the feedback. I had no idea that a Gulfstream would compare to a cargo plane for equipment hauling. I would have assumed the opposite.

Are there no other vehicles in the inventory more capable than either craft? "Big sturdy plane capable of flying through anything while carrying a large payload" doesn't sound like and unusual requirement for a military plane.

I agree with your assessment on the ruling though. These flights aren't new or unusual --why can't employees make their own risk/reward employment decisions? Maybe we could have "guest workers" fly such missions, or subcontract hurricane flights to China?

Zap
well, apparently they don't plan on finding anything today, because they already updated and said they won't be flying tomorrow.
Tx,

The US doesn't undertake building new spacecraft for the same reason they don't have dedicated craft for each hurricane hunting task -- the resources that should be spent for the common good doing things that only the gov't can do are being squandered doing things the gov't shouldn't do at all and can't possibly do well.

Looks like the NHC and NASA both try to do too many things with a single craft design. Too little money, too much wishful thinking, and too muddied goals on both fronts.
Zap
"Am I the only who thinks it mightbe time for new generation of craft."

Nope. Lots of sensible people feel that way. The shuttle is 1970s technology that has never worked all that well.
Shear forecast....Link For anyone that is interested.
looks to me like that convection near the bahamas is all associated with an upper trough. not very good candidate for development.
BOB help me out?
I cant tell what that means lol
cj, BOB, stands for Blob over Bahamas I believe.

Zaphod, your absolutely right.
July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.
RW,
Note that the B52, Boing 747, and SR-71 Blackbird were all similar or older vintage vehicle designs that excelled at their stated roles.

The Blackbird didn't try to carry lots of cargo or people.
The B52 and 747 didn't try to be really, really fast.
The 747 didn't try to fly through heavy flak or refuel in mid-air.

Every design involves tradeoffs, and the fewer key goals you have, the better. The shuttle wasn't, and can never be, a good vehicle as long as it has to carry people safely and cargo cheaply.

Even your average working Joe gets the difference between a semi, a panel van, a duallie work truck, a Suburban, a Prius, and a Corvette. Why doesn't congress? Why do we expect NASA or the NHC to build multi-purpose vehicles?
Zap
At least we still have recon flights. I remember a few years back when they wanted to end those since they " were too dangerous, and collected little valuable data." Well they were wrong then and they're wrong now. I can't count the times a storm was found to be different than the satellite presentation siad it should be.
lol tx!
thanks...
I should have said weatherguy03.
I didnt know what his link meant.
Afternoon all. Was just doing a little yard work and took a minute to research some buoy data. Here is what I found.

GULF
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
July 3 2006 Water Temp 84.9
July 3 2005 Water Temp 80.6

Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
Sea temp probe is 1m below surface.
July 3 2006 Water Temp 85.1
Aug 1 2005 Water Temp 86.1 (station water temp out previous dates)

EAST COST
Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral
Sea temp probe is 1m below surface
July 3 2006 Water Temp 82.9
July 3 2005 Water Temp 78.0

Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GASea temp probe is 0.6m below surface
July 3 2006 Water Temp 84.6
July 3 2005 Water Temp 76.1

Station 41002 - S HATTERAS - 250 NM East of Charleston, SC
Sea temp probe is 1m below surface
July 3 2006 Water Temp 83.1
July 3 2005 Water Temp 77.4

More Info here.

Dr. M, was that a Gulf Stream that guided ya'll out of the eye of Hugo, with that busted ride ya'll were in? Please do let us know.

Thanks all
SJ
tx if you make a honest remark against left wing liberals
they call you a prejudice right wing religous fanatic lol i agree with you about the unions
as a prior member the bad thing about union contracts is they tend to hodback the gogetters
and help the more nonmotvated remember no matter if you are agood worker or a bad worker in a unioncontract
you get the same wages and benefits kind of makes the gogetter say whats the use, and this from experience of 17 years
of union contracts working for one of the largest
navy warship plants in the world ps i think my suspicion about masters being liberal arent far off lol everyone though has the right to
respectfully agree to disagree.
Sorry jp, I have not taken much time to look at any of the current information, but that being said I would expect that area to produce several systems this year. JMO.

See ya'll later
SJ
Right on Zaphod. Nothing necessarily wrong with old technology if it's working well and reliably. Which is not true of the shuttle...
BOB do bear watching....watch and learn
StormJunkie...How do you manage to do so much yard work and still post? You carrying a laptop around your neck!
"yard work" might be a euphemism for something else! ;)
SAINTHURRIFAN, thanks for the support. I didn't mean to start a real debate or arguement. I don't mind discussions or debates, but to be attacked so ferociously was honestly a shock(albeit I didn't see it until this morning). I also agree Jeff seems a little to the left(particulaly on global warming, I agree there is some but not to the degree he believes and basically I disregard any connection between global warming and hurricane increase), but I respect him and he articulates his beliefs well and presents evidence. Thats all anybody can do. I think on unions, personal experience and philosphy have a huge impact on your outlook. I've seen what you describe and that colors my views. I'm sure unions have redeeming qualities its just I think they're outweighed by their negatives. For example, after Jarrell tornado it was obvious that there was gross incompetence in the SA/AUS weather office. People should have been fired. But try to get the Union to allow that, no way. To this day this office is viewed very poorly by all surronding officies. I've had friends(I am not in the weather service by the way) in neighboring offices who have given them recommendations(and these were obvious situations) and basically been ignored and it happens over and over. The are good people there, but there are enough idiots that the office is not a particularly good one.

I will admit as Jeff got more political I really stopped coming here and actually was furious with how he portrayed Katrina as a Bush mistake. The fact is that both democrats and Republicans put Fema under homeland security in their blind obedience to the 911 commision report. The sad fact is when it comes to quick response a distant government can NEVER be as quick as local authorities. Thats why some things are best left to local people.

Now back to something we all agree on the weather. Sorry, if I got long winded.
Tx
I'm not sure it's bad to have SOME liberal views in the world to keep things in perspective, and not ALL liberals are bad. Heck, I married one, it's been fun, and over time she's slowly getting over it. The good doctor is indeed good at what he does, and he's entitled to his beliefs without undue personal attacks and rancor. Of course, he should expect animated discussions, attempts to change his views, and other related consequences of editorializing, but that's fair. Even if everybody who doesn't agree gets disgusted and forms a competing Blog of right-wing weather-haters that's OK too. That's freedom of speech at work in a reasonably free republic.

To me the funny thing is that if you call me an overly-opinionated, right-wing, Bible-quoting, meat-eating, gun-toting, corporation-serving, world-dominating, voucher-esposing, beer-drinking, NASCAR-watching, angry middle-age elitist Christian white-guy with libertarian fiscal leanings and anti-abortion-driven social beliefs straight out of the fifites who thinks Reagan, Bush, Schwarzenegger, and Nixon were all moderates, I'll say "thanks" and smile.

You call a three-sigma liberal a "left wing liberal", or worse, a socialist, and they're up in arms and spouting off personal attacks, while trying to get their views legally protected as an oppressed class. If they're proud of what they say, why aren't they pround of who they are? Have you ever seen a " Proud to be a Cheese-eating Surrender Monkey" bumper sticker?
Zap
The Canadian model is showing an area of low pressure forming in the Bahamas in less than 72. It appears to be a non-tropical system. Shear will be lessening north of Cuba then. Never count the CMC out till its over. Remember Alberto anyone?
Link
txweather...Oh, oh, oh yes my brother! Very well said! Just because you are active on this blog does not mean you have to agree with the positions of the blogmeister! Keep going!
yes we remember Alberto, and also all the other non-existant cyclones predicted by the CMC.
What are y'all doin' on here on such a beautiful day! (Well, not real beautiful where I'm at.) You guys need to do more "yard work". Just a suggestion.
Nice outflow boundary from this morning's Texas coast convection is pushing the convection further off shore.
Check out this link for interesting storm info....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20060606/sc_space/newsatelliteprovidesbreathtakingviewsinsidestorms

For those who are interested, Typhoon Ewiniar is now a strong Cat 1 with sustained winds of 80 Knots and with pressure of 950 mb, and is projected to intensify to 120 knots (Cat 4) within a few days as it bears down on southern Japan.

Looks like this will be yet another major (Cat4/Cat5) hurricane/typhoon, as the global greenhouse exerts its malign influence..
There is some interesting counterclockwise motion and wrapping convection off the east coast of Florida. Moderate, but lessening shear.
CJ, sorry to answer your question so late, I am at work today:( The top maps show potential shear, the red numbers indicate the higher shear, the blue lower shear. It shows the comparision of two models, the GFS and Navy side by side. I find both of those models the best we have out there. The two maps below those show 24 hours shear change, again with the GFS and Navy side by side. I would advise everyone to use these models when trying to forecast shear.
Given the photos on the Hugo ride, it was probably one of the C130s - Gulfstreams are jets, and propellers are visible in the photos.
franck ...I don't see the wrapping yet. Just watch and wait till the new Carib wave gets there. Everything gets squeezed between two highs and right up the east coast.
franck...Sorry! I do see an upper circulation on the WV loop now! Thanks.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N77W...
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
The ULL off Florida is not a concern. Its got nothing but sheer and dry air on the north/west side.

I love looking at WVs, as you can easily see teleconnections.

What is with that mid atlantic ULL that has been out there forever? Geez...I don't remember seeing that last year...it seems pretty persistant.
Colby, I think that there was some sort of spotter plane above the hunter plan that helped guide them out. Sorry. Too lazy to go back and read the article right now.

Rand, do you know how hot it is out there? Have to take a break every now and then.

SJ
JeffK~ Cloudsat came on line for the public to check out sometime between Alberto & BB. Here's the link~ it wasn't in the article.
zap randrewl an tx right on seems like like if you dont bow down and
agree with god masters on this blog you get attacked lol i guess thats why i mainly hangout on
weatherguy 03 blog great info and a little no pain humour
plus ive been under attack on here by going after storm top seems like hus
type of blogging and insults is what some prefer
can some one gve me a update on this big hurricane thats has the small eye thank i this need to no what the mb is like and the winds are like
sayhuh...Yeah I know. I just happen to live on the east coast of FL. That causes more stress since that big bodacious Bermuda hi is large and in charge right now and anything creeping into the area over the Bahamas will most likely be propelled north. Watch and see how this mid-upper troff works out and check out the Canadian. Junkie...I know it's hot...why am I inside....git back in the yard man!
SAINTHURRIFAN...LOL! I know. I'll go after ST anytime. He mostly sounds like Dr. Masters in "drag" anyway!!
sayhuh, that happens sometimes and for a while tropical systems take a back seat. Yes last year conditions eeemed to be favorable a good deal of the time. One funny thning is that several of these ul systems develped last year. W/o them i'm not sure we would have had the record(don't flame me if i'm wrong, I'm too lazy to check my records)

Snowboy, thats not really unusual for the wPac, its all major hurricanes all the time(i'm exaggerating but only a little). But you do walk into a true issue with all basins except to some degree the Atlantic. There is a good deal of confusion about the intensity and storm history of the WPac. The fact is that reliable records of that area are brief and differ between forcast offices.

Thats why we can say with some certainty that this upswing in the Atlantic is normal, we have good records roughly from the 50's(though I myself am i quandry about the 50's). But before that its good, but has holes. An example is in order. The media made a big deal of the number of 5's this year and read WAY to much into this, because we can't say that is unprecedented. Ask yourself in 1935 how many of the 5's would have been 5's. Answer, maybe 1 or at most 2 period and thats a max guess. Without satellite or recon I suspect Rita, Katrina and Wilma would have gone down as 3's and in wilma's case not even that maybe. Emily could well have been recorded, but its a toss up.
Ships would have avoided the cores of these systems or not survived. Just some food for thought.
Now there is an ongoing project to reevalute the seasons and they are making good progress and have added some sytems that previously were unknown. But still you can't increase winds of currently know storms w/o good observations.
Saint put me in with that group. Masters is not always right therefore it is onlylogical to disagree with him sometimes.

Rand....Headed back out to the yard....with a cold beer and then straight for the pool.

See ya
StormJunkie.com
Hey guys just updated my blog....everything u need to know on CAT 2 EWINIAR...looking very organized this afternoon.stop by and leave me comments.thanks adrian
txweather....anything is a possibility with these mid-ul systems. Just the fact that this one popped up near the Bahamas right now makes me suspicious. This is going to be probably the most watchable area as long as the Bermuda-Azores hi is strong like now.
Quote from Gray:

For instance, when we compare Atlantic basin hurricane numbers of the last 15 years with an earlier 15-year period (1950-1964), we see little difference in hurricane frequency or intensity even though global surface temperatures were cooler and there was a general global cooling during 1950-1964 as compared with global warming during 1990-2004.
Silly silly NAM. Trying to bring a warm core cyclone into the Gulf. Shame!

As far a the ULL off Florida..its hard to find anything that really shows this. The CMC eludes to it, but we know how the CMC is this year. Besides..based on the model..nothing to note. Even the SLP is kinda weak.
well guys i guess we ran off sky pny because shes the one that gets
insulted when we pick on st and masters and randrewl they are right
about as much as the other bring back steve gregrory.
Randrewl,

I'm not convinced of the whole global warming theory, but those 15 years comparisions are really uncomparable as 1950-1964 was completely in the active phase of the AMO(which is now disputed to exist) 1990-2004 has 5 years in the inactive phase of the AMO which leaves 5 years that have less chance of being active, then throw in 2005 and the whole entire thing is messed up. And if your determined that that stat backs up your point I challange you to find a period of 10 years as active as the last 10.
The NOAA jet generally files at altitudes of 43,000 feet around the periphery of hurricanes, dropping dozens of dropsonde probes that fall on parachutes through the storm that radio back information on temperature, winds, pressure, and humidity. These measurements have been shown to improve track forecasts of hurricanes by as much as 25%, and are crucial to the Hurricane Center's operational forecasts

The US government (and others) use instrumented remotely-piloted drone aircraft for a variety of purposes.

Is this sort of craft too fragile to withstand Cat Four and Cat 5 eyewall turbulence or can it be adapted? I see at least four feasible approaches:

1. Perform a subset of the present instrumented readings using a remotely-piloted drone.

2. Determine what information can be gleaned by affordable disposable instrumented packages with some minor self-propelling capability.

3. Deploy automatic responder-tagged drones similar to some space probes that transmit live data and can be recovered after the fact when conditions permit.

4. Deploy some combination of the above - such as a remotely-piloted drone that can release smaller automated instrument packages.

Granted, this will take some lead time to develop and I doubt that any funding is available during this hurricane season.

However, if what some "alarmists" are saying is true, and increasing ocean warming leads to ever more catastrophic and economically-damaging storms over the next few years, I believe that public and industrial pressure will ensure that funding becomes available.
guys, global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions is not necessarily predicted to cause more hurricanes, just stronger ones - and that's what we appear to be seeing..
Bouy and Ship reports off the east coast of Fl and Ga are showing significant drops in pressure.

The GOES is showing some counterclock wise rotation aswell, looking at the last few frames..
Hey Sky,

Looks like tomorrow will be the day for the shuttle.
Oh I see I happened back by just in time. Ya'll have yet to make me feel insulted. I myself has disaggreed with Masters openly, in his blog in the past. It is a discussion forum. And I must say the mostly adult conversations on this blog these last two days has been grand.

silly NAM agreed. '03's shear maps were great, much more informative to compare different shear models. I thought ya'll would have found a cut of that Cat 2 on the other side of the world with the cloudsat by now. Perhaps I'll find it later, like Junkie, I'm not sitting here all day.
I think that dry air on west side will prohibit any development.
oh shuttle, what time?
2:38 pm... Great kick off to the fireworks huh?
Here the scoop and countdown for the shuttle if anyone is interested
HurricaneMyles..I agree about AMO. As far as finding stats...they're all out there. The global warming thing is not responsible for increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. All stats like these have to be factored over the long haul. Supposed global warming has been increasing since the late 70's. Hurricane activity from 78-93 does not support that the theory is correct.
earth:

Take the atmospheric tides into account when describing pressure trends. If you look at the graphs for each buoy, they all show a periodic motion.
Shuttle flight....think styrofoam!
I checked the floaters for the Bahama blob. They moved them all around~ 1 is GOM blob, 2 is BOC, 3= NE & 4 is the wave coming over the leewards.
hey Randrewl, what about increasing hurricane intensities?
Rand,
NASA is thinking Styrofoam.. Contributes to global warming no? LOL
And before you go off in a rant on me again... I happen to agree with you on global warming.... at least that is something.
If you do not believe global warming is related to human industrialization you need to present a complete workable theory as to why heating is occurring. Just saying well what about this or that or way back when is not presenting a valid methodology. Its not a complete answer.

That said - I havent committed on exact weather outcome for global warming except for perhaps an increase in uncertainly itself. Heat by increasing the amount and speed of events should increase the possibility for more rare and unexpected outcomes, occurring with greater frequency, (e.g. a storm suddenly evaporating or forming) - if the system itself is expected to remain dynamic. Right?
earthlydragonfly ...Absolutely! Actually hydrogen fuel freezing...but it's all the same thing..LOL!
ok new update winds 100kts mb down to 944mb what dos 100ks mean? and far as the winds


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Testing Image positions...

My blog

July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.

New to me.
JFLORIDA...I agree. I do not believe any of either side. I'm just trying to put forth a more informed "point of view" which is not even close to beliefs or opinions. Right now my view is that there is no research that intrigues me enough that I should have a point of view that the global warming issue is relative to increased hurricane activity or "intensity" of such!
There are maybe other explanations for all this but intensity is one that I have a private thought on.
Weather456..What in God's name does that have to do with anything here? You must work for the tourism industry!
can someone tell me why atmosweather has apologize for something he has done.

What did he do?
Taz, I assume you're talking about an update on Typhoon Ewiniar. 100 kts would make this a Cat 3!!! The typhoon is intensifying very rapidly.
weather456 your last couple of posts aren't really relating to anything that's going on in the blog today (eg. no one's talking about atmosweather, he isn't here, and he certainly doesn't have to apologize for anything..) - it would be great if you could join in the current topics of discussion.
snowboy, there really is no evidence of an increase in intensity(at least for the Atlantic).
Ofcourse none of this is absolute its very subjective on intensity. Like i said earlier we really don't have good enough intensity data. Unfortunately we only have reliable data for about 1 1/2 cycles. Hardly enough to make comparisons.But just to reasure lets look at the top 10 storms since 1960.


Allen(L) 190 899 1980 471

Camille(L) 190 905 1969 470

Wilma(L) 185 882 2005 469

Gilbert(L) 185 888 1988 468

Rita(L) 180 895 2005 467 5

Mitch(L) 180 905 1998 466

Katrina(L) 175 902 2005 465

David(L) 175 924 1979 464

Anita(L) 175 926 1977 463

Now I rank by winds 1st and pressure 2nd and hopefully one day will further back(I actually am just hesitating to go back further, but to 1950)

This does show that 2005 was horrible bad, but so perhaps were other years before sat and recon. Like I said probably 1 or 2 would be seen in the past.

I'm actually considering doing something for all basins and then we could see total tropical activity for the world each year. But man that would take good deal of time. but it really could give us some neat info. whats errie is that all the top 10 storms hit land.

TX
Give no slack to anything near the Bahamas this month!
ok, jph, but maybe Ewiniar isn't done intensifying yet..
Posted By: Randrewl at 8:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2006.
Weather456..What in God's name does that have to do with anything here? You must work for the tourism industry!


sorry about that...I dont work for the tourism industry...I was testing out placing images to right of blogs entry....I needed an article to type with it....so i posted a random article from a search on google.

Hope there was no misunderstanding.
My point was(i am easily distracted) is that there is NO great concentration over the last cycle.
Sorry
TX
All in all Randrewl, honestly, I think its prudent to at least have a theory and be actively considering possibilities now. I agree - A perceived and Real Increase in intensity would make sense even if there WASNT a direct link simply because we dont care about or record the storms that fizzle out.

Back to Yard work
Also: A working understanding and a minimal on the fly forecasting skill is definitely an arguable and necessary ability now.
thanks txweather, others have done the worldwide ranking and are seeing an increase in intensities (esp. the last few years). Also a question: why isn't Ivan (2004) on your list?
JFLORIDA...I can't agree more. Consideration of all possibilities is what I want to do regarding global warming. So, with that at the front...I have no leaning towards the possibility that the global warming debate should even come close to embracing all the myriad of changes on our planet that have somehow found their way there. I have started my blog...but all I have up is a couple articles. Not finished editing them yet and I will have more there in the next few days.
considering that 4 of the 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded occurred in the last 2 years, I'd say it's at least worth considering that something in the atmosphere is changing...
hurricane intensities are usually compared by minimum recorded pressures, because for systems in the more distant past there was little hope of reliably measuring wind speeds..
snowboy its at #11, oops I only gave you the top 10. #10 was Carla(1961). Ivan had a 910 press, but its winds were never higher than 165. Now I go by winds since thats the true indicator, last year we had press that were more indicative of wpac storms(don't know why). Ie they were lower than normal for same wind. The press in the wpac storms is generally lower, for same wind.
Yes people have done other basins, but none did it right. They generally ignored the bias and errors and thus their work is all tainted. They had agendas.

Let me give an example. There is good evidence that we underestimated winds in storm in the WPAC(Dr. gray has mentioned this many times). the people who claim to see increases ignored this and assumed they were correct readings.

Now that I went against intensity increase, I'm going to throw a curve. it believed that the 1960's intensity were too high. Now I've checked some of the storms and it seems right for the evidence, but that arguement can be made.

Also I'll show you the top ten seasons and that is interesting. Don't ask me to interprit I just report what the numbers say.

2005 6320
1995 4740
1969 4589
1998 3838
2004 3693
2001 3659
1999 3562
1961 3551
1996 3451
2003 3373
The number is the sum of all the hurricanes and storms for that year.(image the AP football rankings) For example Allen has a value of 471 and chris of 2002 has 2 points(there is one, but since I could find a pressure I don't mention it).

Tx
snowboy could we have a vary storng cat 5 Typhoon Ewiniar and how small you think the eye is
Snowboy, I don't believe that press tell enough of the story. At least for the top 10 storms we have good enough wind data to use wind.
TX
jp you are hitting at the whole issue we have, we simply don't know accrutely press or wind for storms before 1970 in the atlantic and even more recently in the WPAC.
txweather I'd love to know more about how you derived those figures, and have you noticed that 8 of your top 10 seasons occurred in the last 11 years?
NCAR has recently gone to the GW=more intense storms side as well.

Global Warming Surpassed Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Hurricane Season, NCAR Scientists Conclude

June 22, 2006

BOULDERGlobal warming accounted for around half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic in 2005, while natural cycles were only a minor factor, according to a new analysis by Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The study will appear in the June 27 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
News Flash - JTWC now has Ewiniar at 100 knots (Cat 3) and is predicting intensification to 125 knots (Cat 4) as it heads for southern Japan..
jp excellent point,thats why I want to go back to 1950. Though obviously we are probably talking about good error in that time period. The fact is 2005 could have the perfect storm for a season and not to be repeated. I actually would argue the severity of the season goes against global warming causing it.
On a related note we can tell hurricane severity periods by other methods and we are much less than it was in the past. But that had even more uncertainty.
snowboy, I don't know, probably the strongest(though Keith was close) in wpac and not only that it was HUGE. . I actually have thought about using size too. The pressure issue earlier mentioned, means thats its winds were probably comparative to the top storms in the Atlantic.

Snowboy, that actually makes my day, usually when I talk about hurricane ranks the ZZZZZZZ start soon.

Tx
I should add that Ewiniar is predicted to be extratropical and down to 75 kts by the time it reaches southern Japan on the 8th, though it could do quite a number on Okinawa the day before (still predicted to be 90 knots at that point)..
Skye,
I don't know that NCAR is an unbiased entity.....having worked in Boulder and visited the facility.

I keep coming back to my pragmatic view of global warming: though it is intellectually interesting to determine the nature of cyclogenesis and the effect of humans on the macro patterns that affect cyclone track and intensity, it really doesn't matter much. Whether global warming is human induced or not, or even if it's happening at all, is a moot point if humanity will do nothing to avert it. I'm all for more climatic research, but I certainly don't think it should focus on the GW debate.

Does anybody seriously think that major lifestyle changes are even remotely possible barring those driven by energy prices?
Zap
quick comment taz do you live in the orient just curious seem
mighty concerned about that typhoon? and tx global warming it must have
been real industrialized millions of years ago when they found a tropical climate existed
in the artic area cavemen must have really been industrialist. funny 25 years ago they were wooried about a ice age because
of the severe winters we were having. also right on tx about the hurricane of the 60's 70's 80's and 92 andrew.if this year continues the trend
thats what it is a trend weather is in cycles. for the exact awnser i guess that fellow that was born in bethlehem over 2000 years ago is the only one that
really knows, maybe we should talk to him more often. but as i always say we all have the privledge to respectfully agree to disagree. i just think the media
circus we have now feeds these lunatical ideas and a nut like
al and jipper gore dont help. but hey lets keep the talk g/m carrib atlantic might not be that active but that should be the topics
unless we do have friends on here living in the far east.
I always like the wpac storms, I'd use to wait for international weather on the weatherchannel to see the storms. Once I got to school i had computers(thought the internet was still an infant)to help me keep up.

Also I forgot to mention,yes indeed 8/10 of the worst season were the last decade. That was due more to larger # of storms. Intensity actually was level(actually slightly down, but this was an artifcat of something else, so it was level). so if global warming is affecting the hurricanes(I'm not conceding that), it would seem to me to be in #'s not intensity. This makes some sense, warmer overall temp leads to larger eligible areas, thus an area that in the past was excluded due to sst, now is eligible. For example last year, we really ran up the score with those storms forming in the NE atlantic. Was warmer SST responsible, perhaps. OTOH should we exclude these storms from season rankings since they really are not strictly tropical.(Yes I know another project I'm too overloaded to get too)

Whereas intensity requires more(as jp correctly points out) than just warm SST.

TX
Windspeed and pressure are determined by the ambient pressure surrounding the hurricane. Using pressure as the measure for intensity has bias towards stroms in low ambient pressure environments and using windspeed as the measure for intensity has a bias towards storms in a high ambient pressure environment.

What we need is a formula that repersents a storm in a neutral pressure environment. That way a storm in a low ambient pressure environment could be compared to a storm in a high pressure environment and predict what the pressure and windspeed of each storm would be if they were in identical environments. Then we could truely compare intensities of different storms.
131. MahFL
Our local met says a low may form in the Bahamas.
SAINTHURRIFAN, your right, back to the Atlantic Basin. On last thing though, the cloasest we had in the atlantic to TIP was Carla, but it was still much smaller area. But still huge, roughly NO to Nmexico had storm conditions.

Once in the libary I looked at a houston chronicle with the following headline "Carla heading toward FL Panhandle, no danger to western gulf" humm somebody wished they hadn't written that later:)
Tx
if a low forms in the bahamas where do yall think it would go
Do I ever think we'll have a TIP in the Atlantic?
Its possible, but unlikely(but remember given enough time its bound to happen). Remember tip did that in the open pacific. A storm that big would have to be in the open Atlantic, and the open Atlantic might not have the SST to support that strength. I think as a practical matter Gilbert/Carla is the max(and that would be devestating enough). also a question, how did TIP affect Tropical activity in the pacific after that.

Zaphod, I agree that there is basically no practical way to reduce Co2 emmision. The countries that signed Kyoto failed. So in the end, no nothing can be changed except to see how to deal with impacts. But I do have good news, we're on the downslope of oil supply and in the end that will drive up prices so that other forms of fuel will be cheapened and perfected. Once again economics 101 comes to the rescue. The only long term(centuries) danger is if we are on a climate hill(ie a little up/down) causes us to go further off. But the earths history says we've been much colder/warmer and came to this stable area.

I have to go, but thank you all for the very excellent discussion. This is very enjoyable and enlightening.
Tx
jphurricane2006, are you talking about the low next to florida in the bahamas? is it going to form once it gets into the gulf after it crosses the state? so this low is going to cross florida once then recross it???
wow how often does a storm cross florida twice!
is this really going to happen!? how is it going to manage to cross florida twice???
txweather... I have one word for you. Coal.

If you think oil is bad, you've not seen anything yet.
Rwwhot,

Coal, tar sands, then shale. It's the way of the future until fusion pans out. At least fixed generation is done in large, more easily controlled environments, and we could choose to limit introduction of everything except CO2 without hurting things too much.

One problem is that we'll need to convert these available sources to fuel for vehicles, or shift to batteries (or probably some of both). At least either of these can be accomplished without changing the whole car-based lifestyle of America.

The remaining problem is economic -- unless these sources get cheaper fast, the drain on the economy will hurt America versus the rest of the world, as we require massive amounts of energy to remain productive. Conservation will be inevitable, I think.

The good news is that a lot of this is probably possible at less than $70 per equivalent barrel of oil. The bad news is that can keep the CO2 levels rising for quite a while. The good and bad news is that any shifts will be slower to happen, and the status quo should be able to slowly change over a period of decades.
Zap
rwwhot - You are right, a big comeback for high-sulphur coal is next on the menu of our non-sustainable economy once we deplete tar sands and heavy oil. Think of the 1952 London Black Fog event that killed 12,000 people, then multiply that by many times. In the long run, beyond our lifetimes, perhaps our most deadly legacy will be the acidification and depletion of oxygen from the world's oceans. Widespread acidic and anoxic conditions in the oceans are known to have occurred in the distant past, and have been associated with massive extinction events.
Posted By: StormThug at 10:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2006.
"wow how often does a storm cross florida twice!"
StormThug - Hurricane Gordon (1994)immediately comes to my mind. Check out Gordon's track. By far the worst of it for the east FL coast was when it was more of a hybrid TS off the SW FL coast, causing storms, TS-force winds and severe beach erosion over the FL east central coast for at least 3 days. 2 people were killed in an associated tornado in nearby Barefoot Bay, a large mobile home park. Gordon killed an estimated 1,122 people in Haiti.

It was a wild storm, one of those that the NHC couldn't seem to get a clue on for much of it's life.
One of the most intense hurricanes in history hit in 1935 in the Fl. keys..UNNAMED..how many more were there that year? Do we know???Maybe just maybe without the DATA collection we have today,that more intense canes were unrecorded and UNSEEN that year...How about another unamed storm in 1919 in the fl keys...how many that year?????

How about the unnamed storm that hit N.O. in 1915,how many that year unrecorded???...

1928 an unnamed hit Okeechobee,fl..was it the only one??


so to say 4 in the last few years is an indication of GW ,would be a GUESS. Thats all ...


so you cant compare to what YOU dont have...
They started naming storms after World War II.
>>so to say 4 in the last few years is an indication of GW ,would be a GUESS. Thats all ...

... then do nothing. Just sit in your room and pray that things won't get much worse.

The whole anti-global warming debate is ridiculous. If there's a chance, then let's pull together and help. Why sit around just hoping we're wrong? That makes no sense. Do you care that much about the poor old energy companies that you have to defend their right to hold on tight to old, dirty technologies? Don't we WANT cleaner air? Don't we want to move to a cleaner economy? There's lots of money to be made. Everybody wins. It just takes the political will (a lack of oil companies in the back pockets of our politicians would be nice, too).

Don't we want a cleaner, heathier world? Reading most anti-global warming posts, I guess not. There's a lot we can all do to help, right now. Check out some tips online on how to help. Most solutions will save you lots of $ in the long term.
Hello all... I'm really new to this blog, but have been an avid follower of weather happenings for as long as I can remember. I know that wind shear is a major factor in the development (or lack of development) for tropical systems. The wunderground.com link to the wind shear forecast is really hard to see. Does anyone know of a better link for both current and forecasted shear conditions? Thanks!

Rob
Current shear...Link

Forecasted shear...Link Click on the Shear/12Hr. Shear Change, depending on what model run you want to look at.
Hey Zap, I wasn't sure what NCAR was or where there intrests may lay, just noticed they were next in line jumping the fence after NOAA.

Please more on why they might be biased, that was pretty vague.

So I took a quick look
NCAR ~The National Center for Atmospheric Research ~ is a National Science Foundation federally funded research and development center. Together with our partners at universities and research centers, we are dedicated to exploring and understanding our atmosphere and its interactions with the Sun, the oceans, the biosphere, and human society.

I see federal money & universities.

I do wonder if Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union is peer reviewed.

All in all this arguement around GW seems wasted, for when global warming runs rampit, it wouldn't be really big 'canes that cause the massive extinctions.

Conservation started a while ago if ya didn't notice & has been done without lifestyle changes, it's time to leave old technoligy behind. New technology always helps the economy anyways.

Not all have failed in the treaty, Sweden looks to easily accomplish what they signed to & more. How is their dollar priced to ours these days?

Nice post charizard.
The European Union had a scandal of sorts around attainment of their CO2 quotas. Seems that Germany and a few others way overestimated the amount of CO2 they might produce. As a result the market in CO2 credits went to heck overnight. Most of the people contributing to this blog probably did not know people were actually trading such things.
interesting babbit, I knew credits were being traded. Think that was hashed out in an earlier blog. Guess that will flood the market a little. Good for Germany & the others. That should make it cheaper for the other countries that made less effort...right?

The BB is being force fed some dry air!
sorry char...you missed my point. Read


154. L5
All other parts of the world seem to be able to do fine in terms of TC prediction, path and strengh estimates, etc. using sensors bouys, ships, satellites; why only in NORAM is penetration required, not foreclosing the important and significant research performed? Why is not similar airborne research performed on other TCs globally?
Good posts Charizard, Pony and bappit. Keep up the good work ladies and gentlemen.

A reduction in our c02 emissions is actually very easy, it just takes baby steps to get where we really want, and it starts on a local level.

It is easy to get our emissions reduced. People must realize that it doesnt take the purchase of a $20,000 dollar hybrid car, or $10,000 worth of solar panels, although that is still a good option :)

It takes many people making small changes. For instance the purchase of 1 solar panel, followed by the education of other people saying it can do things such as save you money, help reduce c02 emissions and its very easy/cost effective too. Our ability to educate other individuals is our greatest tool to battle Global Warming. For it is much easier/cost effective to make these smaller changes and it is also much more attractive than spending a boat load of money, although very nice.

For once a larger group of people start making these smaller/easy changes, the demand will be there and the public outcry for change will be there as well. And what did you do? You made a small, easy difference, but in the large scheme of things, you made a huge difference as you let other people know its just as easy to make those changes.

Keep up the good work all. If I can provide any motivation, it would be the realization of the magnitude of benefits we will see after all the hard work we put in to battling this issue.

Patrick
one huge volcano...and GW wont matter...man did not make the last Ice age..and I doupt seriously we make the next...
How can yu tell JP?
jphurricane2006..Tell me what you see in the Bahamas man!..I just got back.
Local forecasters here are saying I should expect to have some of the Bahamas thing soon enough. Whatever that means.
The CMC is showing about 72 hours out that the B blob moves on up north. God...that means I'll be getting this tomorrow night sometime and then live with it for the next 48. Does any of this sound familiar?
rocket see ya back at bobs al gore has arrived lol
JP..Yah, that's the way it looks to me also. Been watching this since this morning. Just been out for several hours. Sounds kinda like the last blob.
whew randrewls back maybe now we will talk atlantic
tropical basin coalminers daughter and the gores have left lol randrewl
bahama blob is getting sheared to pieces right now supposed to cross fla and then head towards the western gulf
cross fla twice yes as it moves west across west palm and then across ftmeyers heading west not a elena loop lol
why do you figure that saint? which model?
SAINTHURRIFAN...I'm just real sad that I missed Al! Yeah..the blobber is going to give the bloggers something to talk about at least and give me more needed precip...Screw the shear! Watch out for this one a little later up the road! Shear means nothing for a mid-up lo!
I'm just sorry I missed al! Yah, the blobber is giving the bloggers something to bloat about!! I could use the precip! Bring it!
Screw the shear....this one isn't even warmed up yet!
the way it looks aint anything gonna move into the gulf
I post and nothing...then they both show up! Al must still be in here! It's that global warming thing again!
Right JF...no Gulf here. Just hang around here and rain maybe and then make problems up the road.
Lets see what Dr.Masters says tomorrow about the Bahama Blob....The NHC says development would be slow to occur...does anyone know where the gulfstream is located in regards to this blob off of Florida?
jphurricane2006...Absolutely right. I just think a little earlier than Wed....but I was wrong once before!
there is nothing happening in the Bahamas that will impact Florida except some much needed rain..
Where I am in Stuart it is less than 15 miles out. It changes all the time. It's just a river within an ocean.
nhc wont say too much about it
jphurricane2006...See...now you're bringing up that really "icky" feeling I had on Sat. morning! I told you then I had bad feelings about the Bahamas. I would not be surprised about any development with this. The west side of the Bahamas bank is real hot and the stream is only fueling that! I still have full tanks of fuel here!
You people need to listen to JP...he's got this thing hammered!
BRB y'all.
JP...go to your satellite shot and turn on the fronts button. I would post the link but this new IE 7 is arguing with me about doing it.
Anyway...there is the remnants of the hi that rode out of GA today hanging over FL. There is also a real heavy Bermuda hi presence to the east. When this happens it becomes the old squeeze play! Most anything can happen depending on the shear. Shear will weaken soon and mid-up lows never stay up for long with half a chance to do something else.
Somebody please send me a link so I can re-install my old IE browser. This #7 sucks!
This is getting really interesting. I currently have a stiff breeze mostly from the east.
jphurricane2006...Yes! You're good. That's what I've been talking about since Sat. I was a few days ahead but you got this nailed!
196. sigh
>Somebody please send me a link so I can re-install my old IE browser. This #7 sucks!

You should be able to just uninstall 7 (under Add/Remove programs) -- IE 6 will still be there. That's how I did it.
sorry guys it took me so long to awnser i got alzhiemers and had to go
back to the sites nhc carribean waters forecast tropical discussion and other
weather networks hey guys masters is not the only game in town.
thier is theory the upper low could decouple leaving a surface low behind with a building
to cross fla straights and work towards western gulf no models really hint
at much development for what thats worth
: Randrewl it is working well for me why do you not like #7
The hi over Fl is already weak. The shear will drop. It won't cross the state to the Gulf. Interesting in Fl!
c'mon you guys, the Bahamas blob is just a rain storm..
saint... it aint gonna affect the Gulf
sigh...Yes, I thought that but right now that can't happen. I'm going to switch to my other puter. It still has the old IE installed. Thanks.
jphurricane2006...It will be farther south. I'm thinking right now closer to Grand Bahama Island. Like...just opposite where I am. If you noticed earlier today this thing was about opposite Jacksonville...now way south of there already!
looks to me to still be bout the longitude of jacksonville
The small but vigorous ULL is currently rolling south over the western Bahamas off of the Florida East coast, pulling in dry air on its western side but amplifying upper level anticyclonic diffluent flow in a broad area east of the Bahamas.

The GFS 060703/1200 model has initialized the ULL at 500 mb way too far to the NE, so I think that its forecast is suspect. The 060703/1200 NAM has backed off somewhat on possible development of the convection east of the Bahamas, but still shows some continuity with a 1013 mb closed low over the Central FL east coast by 060705/0600. For the first time in many days, the shear over the FL peninsula and the Bahamas seems to be weakening, with the upper level flow over the FL peninsula shifting to northerly in response to the ULL.

The ULL just south of the Texas Panhandle is still drifting and is amplifying upper level high pressure divergent flow to its east. This pattern seems to finally be breaking down the strong band of westerly shearing winds that have been streaming from the Gulf of Mexico over Florida into the western Atlantic that we have seen the past several days. With all of the dry air associated with the Bahamas ULL, I would think any development of the convection to the east would be slow, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of days if it can persist.
Check the WV loop . I would link it but my browser is not allowing me. It's way south of Jacksonville now.
k8 if you say so just telling you what i read from mayfields people and
other pro meterologist on other weather agencies
i just a dumb old ms boy but the tropical dissusion says the uppl is moving ssw
but snow boy is right thier is nothing but rain there but thats why we live in the usa
right to agree to dis agree lol
nope JPH, in Canada..
Somebody tell me why I need a report from GuyGee on this?
guygee you must have read the same thing i did and guys hurricanes hit other areas than fla our little coastline is only
60 miles wide but we have camille fredrick elena george cindy and the 100 billion dollar
baby on our coastline in last 36 years so i know this is a fla dominated blog god knows we know lol
I haven't really had a chance to watch the disturbance much(glad we have one though, I mean when we have deep discussions those little hampsters in my head have to run really really fast), but for the record its lucky #13 of the year. So if your superstitious oh well.
Tx
I just like to look at the satellite loops and the models and give my interpretation. If you don't need it, skip it. If you think I will quit posting here because of you, forget about it, it ain't gonna happen.
I remember Alberto...I received less than two tenths of an inch of rain! I got more from our last Bahama blob!
thanks for the info guygee..
guygee..Post away pal!
guygee never mind Randrewl, he just has a bit of an edge this time of the evening..
Listen to snoboy! He's probably right. JP...tell these people what's happening here with our blob.
Howdy boys!!!!!
I'll be here for a while....how long is that? A while!
LOL ahhhh I remember Randrewl bites LOL
That sucker is getting pushed further south as we watch.
guygee and snowboy...go take a nap..we will watch the weather for ya
K8eCane...LOL...F...LOL!
The last time I saw him here he almost bit my head off!!!!! Never even met him
Been getting alot of rain here. Good thing really looking forward to the 4th. Very special holiday
JP did your local stations ever say anything about the possibility of development of BOB ?
wow JP you must be psychic. you answered my question b4 i asked it!
Fshhead...Virtual march....like alleged "Global Warming" Maybe it is all just virtually not really happening. Oh , lets just talk Atlantic weather...OK?
hey maui maui head how are you and k 8 you kind kind of sound like st
insults insults hey lets play nice and whats with that f randrewl
dont need that either. well maui maui take care
LOL
goodbye saint
it seems to me like it will have an oppurtunity to really blow up into something
hello all i just got back from watching fireworks on the levy
48 is forever in this location and make no mistake....things can and do happen real fast with SST's this hot! I know it is only July but ask anyone about Andrew when that sucker hit the stream!
K8eCane - It's getting near midnight, after midnight is primetime around here...I take a nice afternoon nap just to see what happens in the tropics at night;)

As for snowboy, I value his opinion highly; he is obviously a well-educated and intelligent person. I'm glad he stoops down to post to this contentious blog as often as he does.

For me, it is a learning experience, dealing with people of all political beliefs, which is really the problem we are discussing here, after all, isn't it?


in the hurricane world it dont take long in the right conditions
guygee....welcome to the boondocks
it has a shot
k8...we should probably get along very well here. Jp is smart..you sound the same. Others are too involved......know what I mean.
I'm just an old east coast FL guy that's seen this same scenario many times. Watch people.
me too ran...southeast NC coast here
goodnight to you k8 and god bless you may you all
have a happy fourth and try something constructive tonight
beside this poor pitiful rainshower, and k8 curious how many
storms have you experienced? you seem very confident in your
tropical knowledge graduate from penn state osu
university wisc fsu just curious
storms hit the gulf stream here and blow up like crazy...i've seen cat 1 to cat 3 in a few hours here
i've watched storms organize off the coast many times
God the bleeding feelings that get hurt on here could almost make me feel bad if I really cared. K8...cool!
every one that has hit the NC coast since 1958
Yep..too many times I have seen the same here.
and wow saint...you compliment me...i am a nurse...only have experience...no formal training in weather...bet you are surprised?
Nice to talk with an adult! I've been aware of hurricanes since around the same time. Just before that I was too young to remember much.
2005
well i was born in 1958 so i dont remember much till about 1962 LOL
dang k8 your oder than me thats bad lol well we will trade
you all those past nc storms and in return let you have camille fredrick
elena and katrina yall get more but we get doozies lol my niece lied in wilminton for 10 years now moved back to greensboro near my sister
:-(
Having grown up in the tropics....I almost forget storms before they pass. I'm terrible with trivia from memory and I see absolutely no reason to want to change!
i'm in wilmington now saint...i didnt like diana and fran too much...so you can keep camille and katrina
1952 in Stuart. A native FL person here.
thats great k8 niece is adoctor graduated from duke the best
basketball program in america second is in chapel hill go heels
fran scared me a little...my neighbor and her sister actually saw the gray man during fran
I like that last shot at saint.
Life can get real close to the edge sometimes.
jp nobodys arguing the older folks are just having a discussion
usually us 40 and older or outnumbered on here lol
oh yeah ! my daughter graduated UNC Wilmington and soon UNC Chapel Hill...pharmacy...back in wilmington now for last year of internship GO HEELS..( and seahawks!)
The only constant part of life is change. So, occasionally things change and they all blame it on global warming? What?
hey randrewl you liked that lol well lets rewind time
and send you camille and freddy and katrina lol
You under 50 group learn something and JP..please give us a Blob report!
anyhoo...i think the storms are great to marvel at and awesome to experience but its kind of like a wild roller coaster ride...i want to but i dont want to...problem is there are usually casualties with these storms...usually drownings.
I've had my share the past two seasons. Two direct hits here and another backdoor hit! Probably more to come this time also. Who cares? Bring it!
funny my niece went tounc wilmington for her under grad and they
have a nice program and go devils and heels unless they play duke lol
I was born in 1958 too, and I have always loved watching the weather and especially being in thunderstorms and blizzards. But I only moved to Florida in 1993, so all of this is still new to me compared to most of you homegrown folks down here. I'm sure I haven't yet seen the worst that is coming some day...
Sorry I was responding to Saint
SAINTHURRIFAN...I saw Camille's damage probably before you were born!
guys i agree thier are no fools but old fools they say watched katrina tear up
my house with me in it and still marveled at the
storm and was ready for the next enjoyed it guys getting late yall have a wonderful holiday and god bless
billy
jphurricane2006...Thanks. Ain't he good?
I wish you worked for my local tv station.
have a good one, SAINTHURRIFAN!
Has anyone actually checked the Navy site? I haven't.
no...i actually am enjoying the conversation on here...reading about katrina was like a bad nightmare..we have never experienced anything like that devastation..our church housed some katrina victims for a while...wonderful people...so sad
Anybody still here?
randrewl i was 5 but remember to this day cant believe
it could ever be outdone but what i see here it was and some
by katrina off to bed holler at you tommorrow
Oh the most important people in the world are on here!
i want video from any storm affected people if possible
Just in from a day on the water!
i rode out katrina i was located about 30 miles west of the western eyewall.id say we had sustained winds near 75mph with gust too 100.and mainly tree fence roof and crop damage
watching the storms are awesome...reading about the casualties and meeting the victims gives a real reality check for me
K8eCane...I can't help you there. I won't shoot video of storms. I just want no record. Digital shots yes....sometimes. I have a dvd of Frances and Jeanne in 2004 that some idiots shot.
fran shook the brick house i was in...a little scary
I agree Randrewl, its kind of creepy.
i have a vcr tape of some flooding in Carolina Beach during Floyd...i think those guys were nuts too
what can i say? i'm a bit of a storm junkie
StormThug...bet that was a little wild
We all are Cane.
yeah but had the storm hitten new orleans directly as a cat5 it would have been much worse
Somebody please post the Navy link for JP. My puter is not cooperating tonight.
well i gotta go...have to be at work at 7...but it's time and 1/2 tomorrow (TODAY I MEAN)
K8eCane...hope to see ya again soon.
hey folks, Typhoon Ewiniar is at 100 knots (a solid cat 3) and now looking to hit southern Japan straight on by the weekend (as a Cat 1)..
Oh no.
hope to talk to all again when things really heat up!! Night all...Happy 4TH...everybody relax and break out the grill and the fireworks and celebrate our independence
When does 100kts equal a cat3???
Great story jphurricane.

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!!!!!!!
jphurricane2006...So, what did you learn?
It's...100kts X 1.15....equals...what?
jphurricane2006...back when there was Global Cooling!
jphurricane2006...That's hilarious! No, never venture out during a storm! Kind of like hiding under a school desk in case of a nuclear attack!
100 knots would be 115 mph, which is Cat 3 in my books ..
During Fredric my dad decided at the last minute to try to cover our boat with a very heavy piece of canvas, the wind caught it and almost ripped his arm off.
yes, a happy July 4th to all of you in the good old USA!!!
snowboy...I must have a really "Old" copy of that book.
Baybuddy...It's serious business....hide under your desk!
Anyway...we have potential here with the BB again! Who has new data?
1900
Happy fourth all.

If you need a link to most of the major storm tracking data sites you can always find it here. Quick Links.

Ya'll have a great fourth. I'll stop in tomorrow sometime, but got a party and big fireworks display planned tomorrow... :)

Night all
SHJ
1780
Told you I was terrible at hurricane trivia.
Yep, Thug 1780. Although I wonder how accurate that data is.

SJ
StormJunkie...Get back in the yard...dog!
Goodnight all, Safe 4th.
the Bahama blob is fading, but you should get a good rain out of it in FLA..
351. IKE
Most of the computer models have a wave/low pressure floating around the gulf in 84 hours out to 6 days....CMC is aggressive and has it going up the east coast. NAM, NOGAPS and other models have disturbed weather coming into the Gulf of Mexico.
Watching the radar loop and looking at the Tampa NWS 0000Z surface analysis, I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation anywhere near that ULL. My best guess right now is the ULL continues to drop south, and anything that might form under the area of convection gets pulled towards the FL coast between the high and the ULL in a couple of days, be it rain or a little more developed.

So that nap is sounding like a good idea after all...after relaxing a bit with my wife (if she's not sleeping already!)

Have a happy 4th, everyone!
Stormjunkie, my yard could use some work and I was wondering.....
354. IKE
That BB doesn't look like it's fading...there's rotation there.
IKE...Check your water vapor loop....
guygee...I'm sure she's asleep!
357. IKE
I'm not a meteorologist, but that looks rather impressive on WV.
Anything other than this current blob in the Bahamas might show on the Gulf side but this one is getting pushed south and over FL in less than 36 then out East again and up the seaboard.
It is impressive....like a "Devil With a Blue Dress ON"!
here ya go Randrewl, the NHC description of Cat 3, which is Ewiniar's intensity given susatined winds of 100 knots:
"Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively."
snowboy...I'm not even reading this! Go to bed boy!
jphurricane2006...Unfortunately I checked all those factors earlier this morning. What you just said is what I read. Uppers become lowers.
364. IKE
This from the NHC is interesting...."An area of cloudiness and showers continues from the northwestern
Bahamas northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles.
This activity is associated with a upper-level low pressure area and
a weak surface trough...and is expected to spread westward during
the next day or two. Pressures are high in the area and
development...if any...should be slow to occur."...

Now it's development, if any. Is it an invest yet???
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N77W OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE DRIFTING SSW.

That's all the big dogs say.
366. IKE
Not sure about it moving out to the NE that fast. It'w worth keeping an eye on here in the Florida panhandle. This is when Cindy and Dennis formed in 2005.
snowboy - Randrewl read it, he just has a special crusty sense of humor. Inside, he is actually a softy, and his heart is warm and pure!
IKE...Thanks for that.....No invest yet that I can find. Will be soon with that language.
guygee...Gollygee...only if you insist.
Here's the navy link. I assume the one for invests? Ya'll seem real excited about this rain in the Bahamas. It's not blowing up into anything tonight.

South Texas is getting a nice blow up of convection. Hope it's pouring there. The drought in that area has been harsh.

Here's the probiblity map of cyclone formation with in 24 hrs. BB~ 0.2%

Hey Randrewl~ glad to see all the natives haven't left FL. I'm one too.

Blog at ya'll later

re the Bahama blob there is no circulation, lots of dry air around, too much shear and generally no oompf to it - give it a few days and it may turn into something but there's nothing doing right now..
snowboy...You sound just like all the mets on television here. They say the same thing. Then....oops...it's not an exact science!
snowboy...Everything you just said is about to change and then what?
374. IKE
When the NHC says development, if any, then they think there's some sort of chance.
376. IKE
The infrared looks like the convection is moving SE...must get shunted back west.
I'll be the last one to jump. This is the wrong place at the right time and water temps to match. The troff to its west is all but gone....the Bermuda hi to the east...and we have an upper type lo. What else can be said. This is a very risky environment and anything there is open for development. Not tonight....
IKE - I think that is the effect of the ULL dropping south, the convection is moving to the east where the ULL is dropping down, and some of the convection is wrapping towards the west farther north, above the ULL.

Randrewl, yep, she's asleep. Who could blame her? LOL.
Randrewl, if things change then something may develop. I'm just saying there's NO sign that anything will happen tonight or even tomorrow. This is not even a respectable blob at this point..
380. IKE
This from this afternoons Miami, Fl discussion..."discussion...satellite imagery shows a broad area of cloudiness
and convection from the Bahamas east to about 70 degrees west.
This is associated with not only a middle/upper level low as seen in
water vapor imagery...but also a surface to low level trough
which is developing. GFS shows this trough amplifying at the
surface and low levels while moving west towards the area
tomorrow...eventually moving across South Florida late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Main axis of the tropical wave now
approaching the eastern Caribbean is expected to remain south of
the area. It is really this developing trough to our east which
will be the main weather player over the next several days."...

hmmm.......
I am waiting for something wild to happen. Lately there have been alot of "dissapations"
It's fun when some of these ull go haywire and jump south.....West than Ne......They can travel quick and it would be fun to watch one take off and get to a friendly enviroment.
If this upper lo was out in the middle of nothing I would have no concern. Remember Zeta? Looked exactly like this except cold water and you saw what happened there. This is "Hot" water. Nothing to take lightly friends.
IKE...Good data. The NHC will not sleep on this one.
Buhdog...Unfortunately this is not a fun environment right now. Nothing "fun" about storms.
2 thing

one look at the blod in tx off the cost do i see a sinp a long with the t-storms on top?

the 2nd thing where did 96W go it is gone but it was looking vary well tonight this like 97W was so would any one tell me where 96W is or whats going on with that one

the 2nd thing where did 96W go it is gone but it was looking vary well tonight this like 97W was so would any one tell me where 96W is or whats going on with that one

nevere mine i got my i no why now
RAND "Buhdog...Unfortunately this is not a fun environment right now. Nothing "fun" about storms."

Respectfully Randrewl:

sure there is when they are in harmless mode. Ts and below. I went through Charley...not fun I agree. But a Danielle (60) or smaller...It is exciting and "fun" to track as a geek.
Just look at the shear from the Gulf...through the ditch right out to the Antilles...heavy. Blowing the crap out of the wave out there. Then look at the Bahamas.
Here is a great visual link for our BOB. Rand...you can really see the tops gettin crushed from that shear.

Link
jphurricane2006...You are right. Thanks. That other link was a nice shot....but every picture tells a story.
With systems like this....dry air....no convection....these are nothing to worry about. Just the fact that this is where it is right now. That is all that matters. See how fast everything comes into being.
Nothing will form for aleast a week.
jphurricane2006...That troff over FL....it's gone. Check your sat view. All that dry air that is there is about to be history as well.
396. IKE
That loop that buhdog provided...that's a pretty deep trough. Worth keeping up with it.
sayhuh...Wow! Thanks for the information.
jphurricane2006...You really think the Gulf?
I don't seee it myself. It is possible.
There's a 1008 lo over southern Mexico right now feeding the convection over TX. That in turn is feeding down the west coast of FL. Now that the hi over FL has diminished....the flow from Texas will come down across FL quick and feed our hungry blob. Watch and see.
Everything is about to change in less than 6 hours.
I feel the need to check in with another board. I'll be back with more data...maybe. They're all probably asleep.
Yes...my lil' "something unexpected" may happen if she decides to jump south or Southwest. she really put up some impressive thin spiral banding today with heating. If it get into that stream or the straights....or even the gulf, Then we could see some transitioning
jphurricane2006...Promise me no matter how obnoxious I may become this season that you will remain my friend here. I like the way you think!
I just checked another board and they were all asleep with only one poor question about our Blob. I just woke em up.
Even my local pressure here is nudging lower over the past two hours. All the Bahamian stations I can find are not active at night. I need a real reading from Abaco or Grand Bahama.
where have you found drops in pressure?
Somebody explain why the mentality of some posters on here is that everything happens in the Gulf? Have these people only been on here since Katrina? Wow! They have missed all the rest.
411. cjnew
Katrina Didnt start in the Gulf

G'night
jphurricane2006...I am not off thee wall. I just don't go along with the program because everyone says I should.
cjnew...That's what I'm talking about.
I won't. I am usually conservative, but there has just been too many blobs in that area when the shear say's ther should not be anything at all. One of these times something has to pop up when we don't expect it. If it does move or reform in a favorable area...Gulf or straights with an unexpected anticylone (like alberto got) it would make sense. been a lil too normal lately.
416. cjnew
oh lol...then I dont know. :)
Have a great 4 of July!

ttyl
So far season 06 is shaping up to be more normal than the previous two. Anytime the Bahamas is this active this early in the season...that's normal people. Action in the Gulf is abnormal!
jphurricane2006...Thanks. I'm at 1014mb down from 1016 earlier. No big deal but that shows the high pressure is receding.
There is no global warming!
Check my blog for details of this classic article.
And for those ravenous warming enthusiasts...I'm not finished constructing my blog. I appreciate all the feedback and all comments are welcome. Nobody gets spammed here.
Happy 4th!
I have a serious complaint about some people who describe themselves as "rightwingers" -- they try to make southerners look stupid.

I don't have any real proof of my theory that they do this slur on southerners to try to grab political power for themselves, other than I see a consistent pattern of behavior that makes that the obvious conclusion.

I am not southerner myself. I lived in Texas, New Mexico, and Florida for brief periods of 6 months to two years at a time. I spent five straight weeks offshore on Zapata oil drilling rig #3 back in 1980 -- owned by George Herbert Walker Bush.

Sure I met some real dumb fellers there, but I met as many in New York City, Seattle and Los Angeles. In 1999 I helped build a church in Navarre, Florida, probably since flooded by Hurricane Ivan. The average construction dudes that I worked with were no better or worse than ones that I worked with in Portland, Oregon, or Boston, Massachussetts.

So what's up with this campaign to make southerners seen super-stupid? I mean, if I was a southerner myself I would get darned hot about this.

The reason it comes up on a weather blog is because hurricanes are mostly a southern thing -- they hardly ever get up north, and by the time they do, they are usually tamed and past their prime.

The people who created our historical records about hurricanes are therefore mostly southerners. What gives about trying to make them all look like idiots and simpletons? Where is this push coming from?

I've been in the records, looked at the historical data. It's far better than these smear clowns make it out to be. It shows good professional, intelligent, dedicated hard work -- nothing to be dismissed lightly without taking a hard reckon about what our forefathers are teaching us about reality on planet Earth.

Here's a record going back to 1859. In the OFFICIAL record, HURDAT, located at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5105.html
... there is no barometric data included. But the raw data also at the same website shows this:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_5114.html
... U.S. Hurricane Landfall Data
----------------------------
#/Date Time Lat Lon Max Saffir- Central States
Winds Simpson Pressure Affected
5-9/16/1859 0000Z 30.5N 88.0W 80kt 1 (977mb) AL1
5-9/16/1859 0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 70kt 1 (985mb) AL1,AFL1
**** **** ** *** ****

Ship and land station observations uncovered by Mr. Doug Mayes and Prof. Cary Mock at the University of South Carolina and Mr. Michael Chenoweth are able to well document a track for this hurricane during its passage over the southeast United States and back out over the Atlantic. All of these newly analyzed data are documented in full below. The data reconfirms a minimal hurricane making landfall near Mobile, Alabama which also caused Category 1 hurricane conditions in Pensacola, Florida. The landfall intensity though was reduced slightly due to the lack of strong pressure drop at Warrington, FL just east of the landfall point and relatively weak winds observed just north of Mobile (at Mt. Vernon, AL) soon after landfall. This system then trekked to the northeast and reemerged back over the Atlantic near Virginia/Maryland. Ship reports indicate that the storm re-acquired hurricane intensity over the open Atlantic. A peripheral pressure of 996 mb (at 19Z on the 17th in Annapolis) suggests winds of at least 55 kt from the northern wind pressure relationship - 60 kt chosen for best track.

Instrumental Records
--------------------
Date Time Station Temp in Cloudiness Wind Wind Comments
Pressure Open Amount Dir. Speed
Annapolis, Maryland
16SEP 7am 30.12 63 10 NE 2
2pm 30.06 65 10 ESE 3
9pm 29.94 64 10 ENE 3 Rain began 9pm
17SEP 7am 29.51 67 10 NE 3
2pm 29.37 60 10 N 4
9pm 29.72 63 10 NW 2 Rain ended 9pm, 4.8"
18SEP 7am 29.86 57.5 0 NW 1
2pm 29.84 72.5 3 N 1
9pm 29.86 65 3 N 1

Fort Monroe, Virginia
16SEP 7am 30.30 73 Cloudy E 4 Rain began 6am
2pm 30.20 72 Cloudy E 5
9pm NA 71 Cloudy E 5
17SEP 7am 29.71 75 Cloudy SW 4 Rain ended 5am, 0.86
2pm 29.80 75 Cloudy NE 2
9pm 30.00 68 Fair NW 2
18SEP 7am 30.15 70 Fair NW 2
2pm 30.18 73 Fair NE 2
9pm NA 70 Fair SW 2

US Naval Ob., Wash. D.C. (selected)
16SEP noon 30.22 68 10 SE 1 Rain began 2.5am
2.5pm 30.18 66 10 E 2
8.5pm 30.07 63 10 E 3
17SEP 0.5am 29.95 64 10 NE 3 Rain cont., 0.93"
2.5am 29.90 63 10 NE 3
6.5am 29.60 64 10 E 4
8.5am 29.59 68.5 10 E 5
9.5am 29.44 69 10 E 4
10.5am 29.42 68 10 NNE 5
noon 29.54 61 10 NW 6
2.5pm 29.66 60 10 NW 6
3.5pm 29.73 60 10 NW 6
4.5pm 29.78 60 10 NW 6
6.5pm 29.82 60 10 WNW 6
8.5pm 29.89 60 10 WNW 4
9.5pm 29.90 60 10 NW 3 Rain ended 9pm, 3.34"
18SEP 2.5am 29.95 60 4 NW 3
8.5am 30.04 64 1 NW 2
noon 30.03 74 10 NW 3

Washington D. C.
16SEP 7am 30.28 60 10 NE 2 Rain began 1am
2pm 30.20 67 10 SE 3
9pm 30.08 63 10 NE 4
17SEP 7am 29.51 69 10 NE 4
2pm 29.61 61 10 NW 4 cont., 4.00"
9pm 29.89 62 10 NW 4 Rain ended 9.5pm, 0.34"
18SEP 7am 30.03 61 0 NW NA
2pm 30.06 71 3 NW 1
9pm 30.08 64 0 0 0

=====================

Now WHO is trying to make all southerners look like incredible bumbling jerks who can't even operate a barometer or write down the results?

I don't feel I have to be polite and let guys get away with lying about the quality of the records. Here are perfectly adequate records from fine intelligent, educated, and patiotic Southern Americans being put down as bumbling stumblebum who wouldn't know a hurricane from a squall, and can't tell how hard the wind blows.

Now I agree that there are plenty of people from all parts of the country that maybe shouldn't marry their first cousins too many generations in a row like they have been doing, but I don't think they ought to be trying to control the discussions with baldfaced lies that are easily disproved when you go visit the records yourself.

I'm tired of liars, and it's not even me be made the object of ridicule. How about some of you southern boys grow a backbone and stick up for the heritage that belongs to you as much as it belongs to all Americans? Why do I always have to be the one fighting your fight for your dignity? Your history is being smeared, and you are getting some of it all over you too.

Happy 4th of July Patriots, but not to the subversive creeps undermining it today and everyday trying to deliver more power to corrupt corporations and their sock-puppet politicians.
Here's some more stuff I found in the HURDAT RECORDS. I didn't find any stealth invisible cat 5s, maybe because there ain't any such thing, but I did pull out all the ones with barometric records, and then pulled out the oldest 10 major hurricanes that had barometric data, and it all looks like it is pretty close to what we use today for determing strengths and intensity. These were all gone over rigorously in the past few years, and any reconsiderations have already been done.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5105.html

Category 5 Hurricanes found with barometric pressures, 17 cyclones between 1928-1998.

Storm NOT NAMED is number 4 of the year 1928
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 13 18 UTC 17.9N 65.8W 295 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm NOT NAMED is number 2 of the year 1935
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 3 0 UTC 24.5N 80.1W 300 deg 4 mph 7 kph 160 mph 260 kph 892 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm JANET is number 10 of the year 1955
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 27 12 UTC 17.0N 82.0W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 160 mph 260 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CLEO is number 3 of the year 1958
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 16 0 UTC 19.6N 49.8W 350 deg 17 mph 27 kph 160 mph 260 kph 948 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm DONNA is number 5 of the year 1960
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 4 12 UTC 16.8N 59.5W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 952 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CARLA is number 3 of the year 1961
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 11 0 UTC 27.0N 95.0W 305 deg 5 mph 9 kph 160 mph 260 kph 936 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 11 6 UTC 27.2N 95.7W 290 deg 6 mph 11 kph 175 mph 280 kph 936 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 11 12 UTC 27.6N 96.2W 310 deg 5 mph 9 kph 165 mph 270 kph 935 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm HATTIE is number 9 of the year 1961
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 31 0 UTC 17.9N 86.1W 250 deg 10 mph 16 kph 160 mph 260 kph 920 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm BEULAH is number 2 of the year 1967
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 20 0 UTC 24.2N 96.2W 330 deg 3 mph 5 kph 160 mph 260 kph 923 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 20 6 UTC 25.1N 96.8W 330 deg 11 mph 18 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CAMILLE is number 3 of the year 1969
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 17 0 UTC 25.2N 87.2W 330 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 18 0 UTC 29.4N 89.1W 340 deg 12 mph 20 kph 190 mph 305 kph 909 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm EDITH is number 6 of the year 1971
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 9 18 UTC 14.8N 83.2W 290 deg 14 mph 24 kph 160 mph 260 kph 943 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ANITA is number 1 of the year 1977
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 2 0 UTC 24.6N 96.2W 225 deg 9 mph 14 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 2 6 UTC 24.2N 97.1W 245 deg 10 mph 16 kph 175 mph 280 kph 926 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm DAVID is number 4 of the year 1979
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 30 6 UTC 16.0N 64.2W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 925 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 30 12 UTC 16.3N 65.2W 285 deg 11 mph 18 kph 165 mph 270 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 30 18 UTC 16.6N 66.2W 285 deg 11 mph 18 kph 175 mph 280 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 0 UTC 16.8N 67.3W 280 deg 11 mph 18 kph 165 mph 270 kph 927 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 6 UTC 17.0N 68.3W 280 deg 10 mph 16 kph 165 mph 270 kph 928 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 12 UTC 17.2N 69.1W 285 deg 8 mph 12 kph 165 mph 270 kph 927 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 18 UTC 17.9N 69.7W 320 deg 10 mph 16 kph 175 mph 280 kph 926 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ALLEN is number 1 of the year 1980
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 5 0 UTC 14.8N 66.7W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 160 mph 260 kph 911 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 6 UTC 15.4N 68.6W 290 deg 21 mph 35 kph 165 mph 270 kph 916 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 12 UTC 15.9N 70.5W 285 deg 20 mph 33 kph 180 mph 285 kph 932 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 18 UTC 16.5N 72.3W 290 deg 20 mph 33 kph 175 mph 280 kph 940 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 6 0 UTC 17.8N 73.8W 310 deg 21 mph 35 kph 160 mph 260 kph 945 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 6 UTC 20.4N 83.6W 280 deg 18 mph 29 kph 165 mph 270 kph 935 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 12 UTC 21.0N 84.8W 300 deg 13 mph 22 kph 180 mph 285 kph 910 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 18 UTC 21.8N 86.4W 300 deg 18 mph 29 kph 190 mph 305 kph 899 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 8 0 UTC 22.2N 87.9W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 180 mph 285 kph 920 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 0 UTC 24.5N 93.0W 300 deg 13 mph 22 kph 165 mph 270 kph 912 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 6 UTC 25.0N 94.2W 295 deg 12 mph 20 kph 180 mph 285 kph 909 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 12 UTC 25.2N 95.4W 280 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 916 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm GILBERT is number 8 of the year 1988
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 13 18 UTC 19.4N 82.5W 295 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 0 UTC 19.7N 83.8W 285 deg 13 mph 22 kph 185 mph 295 kph 888 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 6 UTC 19.9N 85.3W 280 deg 16 mph 25 kph 180 mph 285 kph 889 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 12 UTC 20.4N 86.5W 295 deg 13 mph 22 kph 165 mph 270 kph 892 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm HUGO is number 8 of the year 1989
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 15 18 UTC 14.6N 54.6W 290 deg 14 mph 24 kph 160 mph 260 kph 918 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ANDREW is number 2 of the year 1992
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 23 12 UTC 25.4N 74.2W 265 deg 17 mph 27 kph 165 mph 270 kph 933 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 23 18 UTC 25.4N 75.8W 270 deg 16 mph 25 kph 175 mph 280 kph 922 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 23 21 UTC 25.4N 76.6W 270 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 923 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** Eleuthera, Bahamas
August 24 9 UTC 25.5N 80.3W 275 deg 19 mph 31 kph 165 mph 270 kph 922 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** SE Florida, USA

Storm MITCH is number 13 of the year 1998
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 26 12 UTC 16.6N 82.6W 285 deg 8 mph 12 kph 165 mph 270 kph 914 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 26 18 UTC 16.9N 83.1W 300 deg 5 mph 9 kph 180 mph 285 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 27 0 UTC 17.2N 83.8W 295 deg 8 mph 12 kph 175 mph 280 kph 910 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 27 6 UTC 17.3N 84.4W 280 deg 5 mph 9 kph 165 mph 270 kph 917 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

=================================================
EARLIEST MAJOR HURRICANES WITH BAROMETRIC DATA between 1852-1870

Storm NOT NAMED is number 1 of the year 1852
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 26 6 UTC 30.2N 88.6W 0 deg 4 mph 7 kph 120 mph 190 kph 961 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 3 of the year 1853
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 3 12 UTC 19.7N 56.2W 290 deg 18 mph 29 kph 150 mph 240 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 2 of the year 1854
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 7 12 UTC 28.0N 78.6W 310 deg 12 mph 20 kph 130 mph 200 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 1 of the year 1856
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 10 18 UTC 29.2N 91.1W 315 deg 8 mph 12 kph 150 mph 240 kph 934 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1859
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 6 12 UTC 42.5N 64.0W 45 deg 25 mph 40 kph 130 mph 200 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1866
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 2 0 UTC 24.5N 77.1W 320 deg 16 mph 25 kph 140 mph 220 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 9 of the year 1867
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 29 18 UTC 18.4N 64.8W 260 deg 16 mph 25 kph 120 mph 190 kph 952 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1869
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 8 18 UTC 38.8N 72.6W 10 deg 43 mph 70 kph 120 mph 190 kph 950 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 4 of the year 1870
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 12 0 UTC 41.5N 57.4W 40 deg 26 mph 42 kph 120 mph 190 kph 948 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1870
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 7 12 UTC 22.1N 81.6W 325 deg 4 mph 7 kph 120 mph 190 kph 959 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3
ScienceCop..I don't much care whatever you are trying to prove here but knock it off and speak weather man. What's up?
ScienceCop..Wow! I agree. I am a native born Floridian. Sorry if that's too far south. Been here since 1952.
May the high shear in the Altlantic and any other ocean basins that need it prevail!\

73737373737373
GIANTS IN 06
73737373737373
Sitting up all night doing computer work I had a disturbing thought. What if the Scientists AND the global warming deniers are both right( To an extent ). What if the earth had influxes of CO2 in the past that were fixed by a CO2 sink.? The frightening thing being of course what if that sink was itself was the distributed fossil fuels deposits of the planet.

Its easy to imagine such a cyclic mechanism: Back in a hotter time as heat increased so would atmospheric pressure. An expanded atmosphere rich in O2, CO2 and H20 and increase mixing, as with a hot system would deliver these compounds high into a bloated upper atmosphere. There, the UV, X Ray and other radiations and energized particles would create free radicals that could form a white, semi opaque smog like layer (as in the Miller-Urey experiments). From there an occluded surface would experience crash cooling. This cooling of the planet would ensure the now dying organic matter would not undergo complete biological decay and reenter the terrestrial carbon cycle. Instead it would be locked away in the fossil fuel deposits. After a while the atmosphere would cool, the heavier gasses would settle back near the planet and the air would clear with excess carbon locked away, and completely isolated. And then it would (normally) slowly happen again.

Now that would be scary.
I don't agree with the posters who say all unions are bad or they don't agree with unions in general. I don't think you can stereotype all unions because you disagree with one decision. If it weren't for unions, working conditions, benefits, and wages would be much worse than what they are today. They have done a lot of good and that shouldn't be forgotten...just my two cents.
JFLORIDA...They're all right ....and wrong. There are no holes in the ozone...and Mother Earth is so much older than anyone knows it won't matter anyway. Tell me about the weather.
2xRitaEvacuee...How did you become a two time Rita evacuee?
Randrewl,

You deny that that a hole in the ozone exsists? Check out theozone over Antartica compared to the ozone over the the Artic. There is definietly a difference in ozone over the N. Hemisphere and S. Hemisphere with the S.H. having a 'hole' over Antartica. Now are we just measuring small changes, or is it a major deal, I'm not sure. However, we can definitly tell that there is a lower concentration of Ozone over Antartica then the rest of the world.

BTW, I'm pretty sure it's scientifically held that the Earth is roughly 4 billion years old. Do you think it's older then that?
HurricaneMyles...Your questions and statements are extremely honest sounding. I appreciate that. So I choose to answer in the same spirit. Would it ever be possible for mankind in today's world or even in your lifetime to know what the correct balance of ozone in our atmosphere should be? We unfortunately cannot travel back in time yet (that I am aware of) and measure the ozone concentrations of this planet say one thousand years prior. Even if we could, would that be correct. Climatologists in today's world can only speculate about how they might choose to "believe" this all should be. In the end they are no more accurate in their statements than the local met on tv who gives you the five day forecast....you know....the forecast that is always incorrect.
If you say our planet is that age I believe you. How could I know anything different?
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N78W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 72W. RIDGING IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 65W-72W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
70W-77W.

That's this morning's discussion about the Bahamas. Later on today this will be more of a highlite to the discussion.
It's impossible to know for sure what things were like before us. We can take core samples, tree rings, ect, and infer information from there, but it's not completely accurate and we might be interpreting the data wrong. We really aren't sure.

On a different note though, what is 'normal' for this Earth we live on? What is a normal C02 level, or a normal sheet ice level, or a normal sea level? IMO, its not a quanity. It's change. It's normal for the C02 to change. It's normal for the sheet ice to change. It's normal for sea level to change. We need to get rid of this idea that we are making the Earth 'un-normal.' Yes, the Earth is changing. It always is, always has been, and always will be. Are we causing this change with anthropogenic global warming? Definetly not. Are we effecting global climate change? Almost certainly.
He wants to raise the state sales tax from 6 percent to 7 percent to help overcome a $4.5 billion budget deficit. The proposal would cost the average New Jersey family $275 per year, according to experts.


Gov. Corzine of NJ is shutting down the state payroll. Debts of 4.5 billion. Imagine the tragedy if a storm were to hit that area now. Imagine if you can how fast 4.5 turns into 20 billion? It can happen.
HurricaneMyles..I absolutely agree. We as inhabitants are all responsible for our footprints on this planet. So cut the fossil fuel burning emissions each one individually.
There are alternatives...and have been since the 1800's. But then we move into the political arena again. The technology for clean almost free and limitless energy has been available for that long! I will say that!
Morning all


Hope everyone has a great fourth.

StormJunkie.com

See ya'll later
SJ
StormJunkie...I hope it's not more yardwork! Bring me a beer when you come back
The weather in the Bahamas is a tropical wave that will bring rain to south Florida. Nothing to unusual when you've lived here all your life. Don't make it to complicated!!!!
Nope Rand. Yardwork had to be done for party today :)
Happy 4th of July to All

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National Hurricane Center.
Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too conservative in its forecasts.

This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a point with this statement.

leave comments at my blog.
StormJunkie...I hope so. My ribs are marinating right now!
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.
Hey all,

As long as its a slow day and I'm stuck behind a desk today, any thoughts on the Gaia hypothesis? especially re global warming, etc..



Happy 4th!
We survived the weekend on Shell Island (off the coast of St. Pete, FL).

Late afternoon build-up skirted past us the first two nights but Sunday (late afternoon) we were slammed with a system moving WNW. We had been watching the skies build to our east all afternoon, started hearing distant thunder and then the wind direction changed on a dime - ESE to WNW. It is one thing to watch that happen from my back porch but experiencing that while on an island was a little unnerving. We had about 15-minutes to double the anchors on the boat and stake tarps over our tents before it hit.

It was a heavy storm I think we were in tstorm hell for about 45 minutes (an eternity when you are vulnerable on an island). We are sure we saw a waterspout off the island but the rain was dense and we were anxious so I wouldnt swear to that. Something about hanging onto a palm tree branch to keep your feet under you can do things to the imagination. I mention it only because we all pointed to the same spot in the water at the same time (some of us pointing with more animation then others!).

What scared us most was not our own plight but watching boats come in from the Gulf with Captains heading right into the middle of the storm in a panic to dock. We saw very few boats that took a leeward heading and have a greater respect for what the Coast Guard must deal with on busy boating weekends when storms come between boaters and land. Captains your intellect may be tricking you when it tells you the safest place is to head home! Please, keep a cool head; listen to the marine radio and STAY SAFE!

I know what we experienced was just a typical afternoon tstorm but would still love to see what showed on radar. Does anyone know of a link that archives radar images?

Stormy
amen to joe b the nhc usually sends the plane after they develop lol
randrewl your right they do always focus o fla its going to hit fla even if its in the s pacific
lol seriously maybe other than andy in 92 and charley its becuase we get the worst ones in the gulf
oh by the way charley was a gulf storm at its peak and andrew still hit la as a 3 in gulf oh well
have a good day my friend
hey greentoruloni, the Gaia hypothesis is one of those intuitive breakthroughs that has reshaped a huge number of fields in the last decade. Scientists have known that for billions of years conditions on earth have remained perfect for life (eg. ocean salinity, atmospheric oxygen and CO2 levels, etc.) and couldn't figure out what was causing those conditions to stay constant. James Lovelock had the breakthrough insight, that it was the planet's living organisms themselves driven simply by natural selection, which were creating a very stable dynamic equilibrium which strongly resists perturbation.

The implications for human induced global warming are:
- that there are natural negative feedback mechanisms that could come into play to counteract the effect of our putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere;
- that our pollution and destruction of the planet's ecosystems could be robbing the earth of the best mechanism it has to counteract the warming effects of our greenhouse gas emissions.
Looking at the Intellicast composite radar loop for South FL. Looks like some rotation over Great Abaco in the Bahamas. Looking at the GHCC Visible and IR closeups, that area looks to be just northeast of the center of the upper-level low, so the circulation may be down near or at the surface. We should watch that area for movement over the next few hours to see if it will just come onshore rapidly or sit out there and develop.
To all of you who put so much time and effort into this blog, I wish you a Happy Fourth of July, and a pleasant, storm-free month.
snowboy - I believe in looking for all of the positive and negative feedback loops and their effects, but what if old Mother Gaia decides to shake us off her back like a bad case of fleas?

It is very instructive to look at the literature on paleoclimatology and paleo-oceanography at the time of past extinction events and rapid climate change, to see that there are thresholds that, once exceeded, will not return to equilibrium for tens of thousands of years.
You have a grat fourth as wdell SpamKing
For those who are interested, Typhoon Ewiniar intensified rapidly overnight and is now packing winds of 120 knots (about 140 mph) and is thus a solid Cat. 4 storm. Further intensification is predicted, followed by a weakening before it hits southern Japan (as a Cat 1 typhoon) on Saturday. Welcome to the global greenhouse!
guygee, "It is very instructive to look at the literature on paleoclimatology and paleo-oceanography at the time of past extinction events and rapid climate change, to see that there are thresholds that, once exceeded, will not return to equilibrium for tens of thousands of years."
That is the ultimate questioned and one to which we have no answer. When i'm here I talk about hurricanes and their relation to climate because hurricanes are what I've studied and will continue to study. but as mentioned last night, the deeper question is "are we somehow affecting the enviroment in a way that will push us over the edge". Fears such as increasing acidity of the ocean etc are much larger threats. OTOH we are over halfway through the usuage of Fossil fuels so its logical to assume that our climate has changed more than half of what the extra CO2 can do. For example if there is a .6 increase we're looking at a max of 1.0 total change. Of course this come from my faith that people will switch(and the $70 oil helps) to other fuels over time.
TX
I'm with you on that guygee - this is the big concern about global warming, namely that the equilibrium shifts which have occurred in the past have been sudden and sharp, and then not reversed for millenia. If we push things past some unknown tipping point, we could be suddenly faced with a planet that will no longer support our 1st world civilization.

The possible tipping point generating the most concern right now is that the presence of the arctic sea ice currently helps drive the world's ocean currents (including the Gulf Stream), and that once the arctic year-round sea ice is gone (which is projected to happen in as little as 15 years from now) the ocean currents could develop new flow patterns with very significant implications for planetary climate (and lots of negative impacts for humanity)..
Good morning.........

I ran across something in the paper this morning and thought you guys would like to see......here it is...

High sea temperatures stress coral reefs


Posted July 4, 2006



ADVERTISEMENTS









Caribbean sea temperatures have reached their annual high two months ahead of schedule -- a sign that coral reefs, including those in the Florida Keys, may suffer the same widespread damage as last year, scientists said Monday.

Sea temperatures around Puerto Rico and the Florida Keys reached 83.48 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday -- a high not normally expected until September, said Al Strong, a scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coral Reef Watch.

High sea temperatures stress coral, making the already fragile undersea life even more susceptible to disease and premature death. NOAA issued a warning, alerting scuba-dive operators and underwater researchers to be careful around the reefs, which are easily damaged by physical contact and land-based runoff, Strong said.
snowboy - You and I think alike on that one. Once the THC shuts down, the deep ocean will slowly become anoxic. The THC is very unstable; the circulation relies on just a few small areas of downwelling, mostly in the North Atlantic. After a couple thousand years without the THC, virtually all the oceans in the world become anoxic. This scenario is not hard to imagine, as the Arctic sea ice is known to be a self sustaining system due to albedo feedback: once the sea ice disappears it will not come back for a very long time (geological time scales). An ice-free Arctic ocean means more liquid precipitation, more freshwater run-off, and increased freshwater flow from the Greenland icecap, all of which serve as negative feedbacks for re-establishing the THC. Also, increased CO2 levels and increased SO4 aerosols in the troposphere resulting from increasing use of high sulphur coal and heavy oils will result in ocean acidification. We are already beginning to witness a massive extinction event in many coral species.

Just for a short primer, people should read about the Permian-Triassic extinction event, and consider the theory of atmospheric hydrogen sulfide buildup that may have occurred at that time. Granted this was an extreme event, but it is instructive. Check out some of the external links at the bottom of the article as well. Similar changes in ocean chemistry have been shown to occur at other times in the past, usually resulting in massive extinctions. The ocean is the key to life on this planet; we can no longer afford to view it as a limitless resource of food and the ultimate dumping ground for all of our pollution and waste.
weatherboyfsu - That is bad news, but thank you for the information. When the corals go extinct, all of the other species adapted to living in coral reefs will follow. The ocean floor in those areas will eventually be like an underwater desert, with a few signs of life like worm tracks, but not much else.
Heh, I think its time to terraform Mars. This planet is done for. lol
WhatHurricane - Stephen Hawking agrees with you!
Professor Hawking has twelve honorary degrees, was awarded the CBE in 1982, and was made a Companion of Honour in 1989. He is the recipient of many awards, medals and prizes and is a Fellow of The Royal Society and a Member of the US National Academy of Sciences.

Stephen came to the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at Cambridge, and since 1979 has held the post of Lucasian Professor of Mathematics. The chair was founded in 1663 with money left in the will of the Reverend Henry Lucas, who had been the Member of Parliament for the University. It was first held by Isaac Barrow, and then in 1669 by Isaac Newton.
OK, I know a lot of people hate talking about the climate instead of tropical weather, so enough (too much?) from me for now. What do people think of the circulation south of Grand Bahama island on the most recent radar loop?
Are there any rules against Civilian crafts leaving the planet to colonize other selestial bodies?
haha
Guygee... I see a very broad circulation. Nothing more than an ULL?
WhatHurricane - I think you are right, it has some daytime convection wrapping around it, but that could be a sign more of a cold-core rather than warm core system.
Why don't we use mysace to controll GW? Its got 90 million users!!!! I figure if everyone on myspace stops using their cars... The globe will stop warming in about 250 years.