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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

John bears down on Baja; new threat in the Atlantic; new Dr. Gray forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2006

Hurricane John is hours away from a strike on the southern tip of Baja as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 958 mb, and top winds of 110 mph at the surface at about 10am PDT. John is expected to maintain this intensity up until landfall. John is a very small hurricane, and the exact point of landfall will make a critical difference on how much damage the storm does. A 50-mile wide section of the coast will experience hurricane force winds. Satellite animations of John's current track suggest it will move up the relatively sparsely populated east side of the Baja Peninsula, sparing the resort towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo the worst of the eyewall's winds. Radar from Cabo is most impressive!


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane John from 1:45pm EDT Friday 9/1/06. Tropical Storm Kristy is also visible. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Given the small size of the hurricane, the impact on Baja is likely to severely disrupt the storm. A much weakened John should continue north along Baja, dumping copious amounts of rain along the way. John's rains may make it all the way to San Diego, but it would be a major surprise if the storm were a tropical depression by then.

NHC declares a new "invest" on African tropical wave
A tropical wave near 11N 39W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a well-defined low level circulation today. There has been a moderate increase in the thunderstorm activity associated with this wave, and the NHC has just designated this wave as Invest 98L. The system is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles Islands Wednesday. Wind shear over the system is low, 5-10 knots, and the wave is over warm SSTs of 83-86F (28.5-30 C). Wind shear is forecast to remain low over the next few days, and the system has the potential to become a tropical depression by Sunday. The main inhibiting factor would seem to be the large area of dry air and African dust to the wave's north (have we heard that refrain before this season?) The SHIPS intensity model is very aggressive with this system, intensifying it to a hurricane by Tuesday. That's not going to happen, it takes a lot longer than that for disturbance to organize into a hurricane.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 98L. These models are described at the NHC web site.

Dr. Gray's September 1 forecast
The hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University headed by Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray issued their September forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity today. They predict 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes for September, which is about normal for that month. They predict an additional 2 named storms and one hurricane in October, and one named storm in November. This would give the hurricane season of 2006 total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes. They credited dry air from the Sahara and more El Nino-like conditions than expected for the lower than average hurricane activity observed in August. Prices of oil, natural gas, and heating oil futures fell on commodity markets by 1-3% on the news of the forecast. The Klotzbach/Gray team originally forecast that 17 named storms would form this year.

Ernesto
Ernesto, now a tropical depression, has dumped up to a foot of rain on North Carolina and Virginia. I'll have a summary of some lessons learned from tracking the storm in tomorrow's blog.

Typhoon Ioke
Typhoon Ioke is no longer a super typhoon, having fallen below the 150 mph winds threshold for that designation. It is, however, still a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, and may stay a Cat 4 for three more days. However, its amazingly long run as an intense typhoon appear numbered--it's getting far enough north that a trough of low pressure should be able to grab it by Tuesday, weaken it, and pull it northwest towards Japan.

Some impressive satellite loops and 3-D images of Ioke passing Wake Island are available at the RTS Weather Station on Kwajelein Atoll.

Another wave to keep an eye on
The tropical wave near 16N 55W is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust, but has slowly been able to pump more moisture into its center each night over the past few days as thunderstorm development kicks up then dies away. The thunderstorm activity surrounding the wave has died away again this afternoon, but will probably pick up again tonight, during the normal nighttime peak in thunderstorm activity over the oceans. By Sunday, the wave may have enough moisture to develop. It should be in the Lesser Antilles Islands at that time.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

the islands of barbados and sant lucias has NW winds a bouy near 15.9n 57.9w has 25mph sustained winds, the radar of martinique show the rotation, the preassure are falling that means something is developing?
Heres 98L at 345UTC
storyof the hurricane, the tropical wave near the islands produce NW winds in some of the islands the preassure drop to 1010 mlb a bouy nave 25mph this wave has the potential to get td status?
345Z

615Z
it doesnt look like theres much circulation yet, i think it does have a chance though
i think it may dissipate once sunlight hits
the disturbance over the islands to clarify that
the new models has the 98L to 80knots in 120 hrs ufff
ya contrary to a lot of opinions on here 98L is looking strong to me
to me too, in the images that you posted i see the 98L is more organized and very large system the new run model turn the 98L to 80knots and a more west trayectory for my opinion.
Info. about buoy near the antilles

Link
now the question is what was the moon doing differently from last year affecting the atlantic weather and this year the pacific. i wonder if im on to something...
ya i think those buoys measurements might be our warning call, pretty consistant as well
somebody who knows a lot about the lunar cycle should look into the patterns that occur during active seasons, wonder if a correlation exists
interesting the wave height over 7 ft in that buoy
ya, since the 20knots of wind is coming from the East im beginning to think that 98L might be doing this too, be interesting to see if it keeps climbing like it has been.
weather fan pr the islands of barbados and santa lucia have NW winds and the preasure are falling in the islands, the bouy has falling the preasure at 2mlb in 2 hours 1012 to 1010.
wonder if it might be this storm, we'll know when it passes.

at 3 am barbados w-nw winds the preasure falling from 1012 at midnight and now 1009mlbs
98L is more organized, and very impressive.
look at that monster..

yes you are correct thunderpr
615Z

645Z
martinique, sant lucia and barbados have SW, NNW and WNW winds in the past hour preasure continued falling
definitely gettin organized, youre right
its just the more it gets away from africa the better conditions it has
529. WSI
Ernesto did flood some parts of NC with its passage, even though many think it (Ernesto) wasn't much to look at.

Southeastern River Conditions

The Cape Fear River near Chinquapin won't be under flood stage for the near future. In fact, estimates into next Wednesday still show it just below MAJOR flood stage.

Some other east coast flood stage events.

More weather and tropical links available here.
98L a hurricane in 72 hours to 79mph and 92mph in 120 hours by the ships model
wow, ty for the info, wasnt aware of the flooding, didnt mean to downplay ernie, just meant to turn the attention towards the future storm
ships is a psychopath sometimes tho, you gotta watch that one, could be right tho we'll see
345Z

715Z
534. Inyo
john you gotta get your butt off of that peninsula or you're done for.
345Z

745Z
Still some pretty gusty winds here in NYC from Ernie, but doesn't feel like more than a typical blustery fall day right now. Wind gusts are supposed to increase sometime in the morning/afternoon, then die away.
Over-all, from the Carolinas to New Jersey, about 300,000 people lost power cuz of Ernie.
See how large John's impact is....


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MDT SAT SEP 2 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

.MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE FLOW INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS BEING
TAPPED FROM HURRICANE JOHN WHICH IS MOVING ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND ENHANCE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH THE EXTENSIVE RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY. AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY FLOODS LAST MONTH WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FURTHER FLOODING FROM THIS RAIN EVENT.
good morning to all. when is the invest? I'm still a bit sleepy and don't want to read thu...
01/2315 UTC 10.8N 37.0W TOO WEAK 98L


541. IKE
Those models for 98L are all over the place. Kind of narrows it down.....

headin west
hey...speaking of heading west...have you noticed ole ernie...still isn't heading thaat way
I really see no valid reason for storm estimates prior to a season. Obviously, the overall formula for making these long range estimates is still poor. Why do they even bother going public with this information, at this point in time? It appears to still just a guessing game, of sorts. Let's face it, making a projection for a period of time and then having to continuely 'update' it because it isn't coming true is a strong indication this part of things is not developed well enough to be even somewhat dependable and if it's not dependable it should not even be released. It's a 'look at me' and public conversation piece. Who needs it? It's not valid.
hey storm...good morning to all
Morning group!
speedy....would it grab everyones attention if the just said.....sal seems minimal....sst's are warmer than average..and shear appears low..conditions for development look good..that would mean something to us...but to the public at large..would they care..or i guess you could saay...does it matter if they care or not..i'm a wafflere on this one
morning all
speedy3 i kinda agree it also makes
the oil futures market go crazy look what happens to gas prices when they said its going to be a busy year in the tropics. yesterday they said not somany storms for this year and the markets fell by 1-3% just my opinion
thanks z-hills
Dr.Masters
The wave near the Antilles is just that a strong wave with a wind shift, no circulation there at all. I looked at the Quickscat andd sat images.
553. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 6:25 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Good morning IKE; Randrewl!


Good morning....man...this coffees good.
morning folks,

our lb seems to have filled out over night, any thoughts on a forecast for it?
557. IKE
Looks like there's a ULL over the Bahamas...LB has a rough road ahead.

I'll make a prediction...if there's another storm that threatens the US...it will be in the last 10 days of September.

This pattern now seems to favor storms recurving before the reach the US. There's suppose to be another cold front to approach the gulf states this coming week.

There's Dr. IKE's short range forecast....
cold front?.........can't wait for a cold front..nothing like the first cold front of the year when you're living in florida..and the temp drops to the low 60's at night....perfect
559. IKE
Houston, Texas morning discussion..."Frontal boundary
looks like it will get a southward push into the Gulf late Tuesday as
western ridge amplifies and eastern trough digs southward. This will
allow much drier air to filter into the area beginning Wednesday.".........

Ah...lower dew points....dryer air...a killer for tropical development along the northern gulf coast.
Mornin'

Kind of an interesting blob between Yukutan north coast and 24N @ 90W. Satellite forecast points show a tropical wave line running from SW gulf to NE across this same area.
I suppose time will tell if it isanything more than a blob.

Has this blob caught anyone's interest?
561. IKE
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 7:03 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Mornin'

Kind of an interesting blob between Yukutan north coast and 24N @ 90W. Satellite forecast points show a tropical wave line running from SW gulf to NE across this same area.
I suppose time will tell if it isanything more than a blob.

Has this blob caught anyone's interest?


Yeah...I saw it.

Might shoot my short range forecast to hell in a hurry.
So with almost all the models having 98L out to sea, we shouldnt worry much here in the Caribbean? Or given the latest reputation models have been gettin, should we be just as nervous?
563. IKE
Some of the models have 98L going back west. I wouldn't write it off just yet.
ricderr...keep dreaming....cold fronts don't get this far south till the 15th of October. Like the groundhog seeing his shadow here....we're in for six more weeks of heat and humidity!
benirica...The wave is still too weak for the models. Keep watching.
Doesn't look like anything can form in the BOC..GOM. IKE...your short range should still be good!

randrewl...call it wishcasting......and come this time of year..i'm very good at it....hate being sweaty evereytime i go outside
Wishcasting is always good in September in southern Florida. Worst month of the year.
569. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:11 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Doesn't look like anything can form in the BOC..GOM. IKE...your short range should still be good!


Looks like you're right.
570. SLU
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 11:36 AM GMT on September 02, 2006.
The wave near the Antilles is just that a strong wave with a wind shift, no circulation there at all. I looked at the Quickscat andd sat images.


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BARBADOS

12:00 AM 80.6 F / 27.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 89% 29.89 in / 1012 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers NNE 4.6 mph / 7.4 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
1:00 AM 80.6 F / 27.0 C 78.8 F / 26.0 C 94% 29.86 in / 1011 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers NNW 4.6 mph / 7.4 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
2:00 AM 79 F / 26 C 77 F / 25 C 92% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 31 miles / 50 kilometers NW 5.8 mph / 9.3 km/h - - Scattered Clouds
2:00 AM 78.8 F / 26.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 94% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers NW 5.8 mph / 9.3 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
3:00 AM 80.6 F / 27.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 89% 29.80 in / 1009 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers WNW 3.5 mph / 5.6 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
4:00 AM 78.8 F / 26.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 94% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers North 5.8 mph / 9.3 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
5:00 AM 79 F / 26 C 77 F / 25 C 92% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 31 miles / 50 kilometers NNW 4.6 mph / 7.4 km/h - - Scattered Clouds
5:00 AM 78.8 F / 26.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 94% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers NNW 4.6 mph / 7.4 km/h - N/A Partly Cloudy
6:00 AM 78.8 F / 26.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 94% 29.83 in / 1010 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers Variable 2.3 mph / 3.7 km/h - N/A Partly Cloudy
7:00 AM 82.4 F / 28.0 C 78.8 F / 26.0 C 89% 29.86 in / 1011 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers NW 3.5 mph / 5.6 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds
8:00 AM 83 F / 28 C 77 F / 25 C 77% 29.88 in / 1012 hPa 14 miles / 22 kilometers 2.3 mph / 3.7 km/h - - Partly Cloudy
8:00 AM 84.2 F / 29.0 C 77.0 F / 25.0 C 79% 29.89 in / 1012 hPa 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers Variable 2.3 mph / 3.7 km/h - N/A Scattered Clouds

There is a weak LLC afterall
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 19N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
SWIRL HAS FILLED IN WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 13.5N57W-16.5N62W.
Can someone post a pic of 98L and like a dot where the COC should be or something...? I dont know where to look and say "theres 98L", it looks like a mess right now.
11N and 38W. Look there.
Well the best chance we get for hurricane development in September happens 7th and 8th or within 4 days of that period +/-. The situation for development into the Caribbean looks good south of Cuba near Grand Caymen and Jamaca. There is a fair Atlantic track there as well. The Gulf of Mexico is losing heat and doesn't seem to be able to sustain a strong storm.
So ifthis were to form, it would be pretty big? Or would just a small part of it keep going and all those thunderstorms kind of just die out or stay behind?
good morning all
98L is still very disorganised and probably a day or two away from even being near TD status
The wave over the islands still has less than a 10% chance of surviving IMO
Reason: King Shear
The ULL over W Cuba is already doing a number on it
Take a lookLink
sorry
meant E Cuba
not had my java yet
The Gulf of Mexico is losing heat

help me out here....where does it show that?..i know it will..but right now..it's warmer than it hasa been all year
benerica
I don't think you can put a dot based on what I am seeing this morning. The low is very broad and diffuse
The Gulf of Mexico is losing heat and doesn't seem to be able to sustain a strong storm.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The GOM hasn't had much of a chance to sustain a storm.

Good Morning all!
I suspect the dry air in the GOM will be gone by tomorrow, and things will get juicy again.
AT 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...09Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...AND 76.7 LONGITUDE WEST OR
10 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.
yea..to ask the question again.....how is the gulf losing heat....it isnt going to lose all its heat this early...lol...show me were it shows the cooling down...
the entire Caribbean is currently under the influence of a strong ULL located over the SE Bahamas and E Cuba that digs down into the Basin.
This is creating very hostile conditions in the Caribbean and I would not expect to see any system either develop or survive here until it lifts out or dissipates. I do not know what the forecast is for either one to happen.
Anyone know ?
It is always a good idea to look at a WV loop to see what is really going on. An IR picture can be deceiving and give the impression that something is developing when conditions actually dictate otherwise
See link for ULL previously referred to but from larger perspective
Link
Good morning ihave27windows...how's Texas today?
Wow! Unreal weather here in SWLA, no humidity, 62 degrees........feels like fall!! We're being lured into a false sense of "fall is here", but deep down we actually know better!!
and for those who are downplaying ernie...dont, theres over 200k down here in va w/o power and water everywhere...
Morning Rand....at the moment it is quite nice outside.

How is your world?
Some of the cold hearted Politcal mud slinging in Florida is landing in the GOM and cooling it,lol.
Ike, we lost a tough one last night.
Is that a pretty significant front coming down next week? It's been so pleasant the past couple of days.
watchingnva...No downplaying here. That's why I posted the latest above. He's just sitting there causing more trouble.
ihave27windows...Hot, humid and a 70% chance of rain today! Enjoy your weather.
Be back in a little while.....my best friend always calls at 8 Sat. morning.

Morning ric, SWLA, Kman, Ike etc.......
595. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:43 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Ike, we lost a tough one last night.
Is that a pretty significant front coming down next week? It's been so pleasant the past couple of days.


Springer...Ensberg...OP...should be shipped to KC for a bucket of baseballs.

Suppose to be drier air by the middle of next week in your area. Doubt it will be much cooler...but at least it won't be as humid.
596. IKE
Per Lake Charles, LA morning discussion..."Looking for another cool front on Monday night this will see the
return of showers on Monday into Tuesday. Things dry out on
Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures continuing to moderate."
morning to all here..im sure there are others in the panhandle..woke up to less than a 70 deg temp?! wow
This cool/dry wx is great, it really squashes any tropical development. I wonder if we're going to have an early fall. We usually don't see our first front till mid to late Sept.
see's watching's computer is on..must not be one of the 200k......
watching...most of us on here..know what it's like to be without power for weeks and we empathize.....many of us enjoy our time here..but don't think for a minute...we don't share our sympathy and suppport for those that are going through trials
99L is up!
Anyone have any thoughts on anything getting going along the old front in the SGOM?
Is 99 the one approaching the Islands?
Been sitting here refreshing the Navy waiting for this one. Too much convection to not invest.
604. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:51 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
This cool/dry wx is great, it really squashes any tropical development.


Yup....a killer for tropical activity along the northern GOM.

The extended forecast 6-10 day and 8-14 day...calls for below average temps in the SE USA and above average rain. Troughiness in the east.
SWLAStormFanatic ...Yes.
1009mb and 25kts!
607. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:54 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
1009mb and 25kts!


Dam...that's close to a TD!
Have you consulted the magic model ball yet (99L)?
ricderr, I agree, I have family in West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland.
There are a bunch of folks up there reliving similar flooding experiences to Isadore.
I'm very greatful Ernesto got off the track that was similar to Ivan. I was pretty worried for about 24 hours of having to relive that.
Good Morning,

Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part One...Western Periphery
Saturday, September 2, 2006.......


A powerful surface High (1036mbar) continues to strengthen, over Central Quebec, Canada.

An Upper Level Ridge remains station south and east of the Hudson Bay.

A well define trough is moving out to sea near 40-50N, 55-50W, with a 1004mbar low located at 45N, 43W.

The remnants of Ernesto has been absorbed by an old cold front and is now becoming an Extratropical Storm over the NE United States. Locally heavy rains of up to 2+inches are expected over the Northernmost States (E.g. Maine) and Southern Canada. The remainder of the front is stationer all the way 33N/55W and then become cold again extending across the entire central North Atlantic to near 50N/25W, where a Gale Low is found along a surface trough.

A broad Upper Level Ridge extends from Virginia across the entire subtropics to near the Azores.

A cold front now extends of Texas though the central United States and north to North Dakota, where a mid-latitude low has form. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected in that area.

An Upper Level Ridge extends from Central Mexico, northward to Nebraska.

A surface High remains station near the Texas Gulf Coast.

The trough that extended down from the SE United States is now located in the Gulf of Mexico and is now interacting with the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas to produce locally heavy showers and thunderstorms over Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos Islands and Haiti.

Numerous showers are also seen along Central Mexico and Texas, due to the cold front and Hurricane John, the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and Northern Colombia, with locally heavy amounts expected in Southern Costa Rico, (which is normal since its their wet season) and the California Baja Peninsula.

By Weather456.8:57AST..
Morning all.

Anybody seen any picture of Wake Island yet? Was wondering if anything is left at all!

John seems to be holding to the Gulf of California, and will stay a cane a bit longer, but probably will still die on the mountain crossing when it does recurve west. In the meantime it is helping to fuel moisture up here to the south-central states.
Zap
i heard yesterday..and this is unconfirmed..that they would be flying this morning
I doubt there is a landing strip left on Wake Island. They will probably have get Navy or Caost Guard to help get there.
614. IKE
99L is booking it to the west. Does have a lot of convection.

To those w/o electricity from Ernesto. It sucks....hopefully things will get back to normal soon.
wait, what? when did we get a 99L ?
99L about 15 mins ago. Wake up people. We have two invests now!
618. IKE
Barbados pressure got down to 29.80 earlier this morning...3 AM. That 1009 mb on 99L is about right.
damn you go for a bathroom break and they mix things up for you.

just saw ioke is going to japan... was a life that storm has had... damn
25 knots is a healthy start for 99L. Have to see what happens there today.
how much organization does a system need to be on one of the floaters? got to be a td?
isnt 99l going head on into a hell of a bad spot? how strong is shear right there in the eastern caribbean?
Why not send a recon in then on 99L? Theres 30kt shear ahead based on the shear map?? Lets see what Jeff Masters has to say?
Looks like 30kts to the North and West right now.
Randrewl,
Why make it an invest then right if its just coing to fall apart anyways, right?
625. IKE
The 8:05 AM tropical weather discussion doesn't say what the ULL in the Bahamas is suppose to do.
Discussion on Invests.....Link
sporteguy03...Because it meets the criteria for an invest. Pressure is right and winds are strong enough. There is a lot of convection flaring so a TD is possible.
Totally off topic, but is Ely Manning related to Peyton and Archie?

Looks to me like we might have yet another invest today just coming onscreen from the right here.
Ih27- he's Peyton's brother, Archie's son.
I thought they looked alike.....Damn, football in the blood.
One wave just emerged off Africa has kept it's convection, and another strong one is about to emerge.

africa
LMAO........27....may i say..you are sweet...mr 27 is a lucky man.....
Could the Hurricane Hunters fly in then this afternoon to 99L?
I was looking at 99L earlier this morning and wondered if they didn't find it as interesting as I did.

Is the shear forecast to weaken in it's path?
I wonder if 99L developement will bring 98L on a more westerly track?
Ric, that was a lovely thing to say.....Thanks for making my morning.

99L ??
With all that shear around ??
Hope I don't have to go look for some crows outside !!
LOL
How come the mainstream media don't talk about invests like CNN or TWC?
You know, if we continue getting fronts through here, the upper Texas Coast, our hurricane season is over. Bad news for Florida though....sorry.
27windows

99L is interesting in that for days it was a well defined swirl in the ATL virtually devoid of convection save for a small burst here and there and here it is trying its best to get it together in the face of very hostile conditions !
Perhaps we should rename it tenacious !!
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Two...Eastern Periphery
Saturday, September 2, 2006.......


An Upper Level ridge now dominates the Eastern Caribbean Sea and Western Atlantic Ocean south of 25N.

A westward moving tropical wave (99L) near 60W, accompanied by a 1009mbar low near 16N, 61W, will produce showers and T-Storms over some of the islands today and spread northward to Puerto Rico on Sunday. A ship headed for Antigua, north of the wave measure a pressure of 1012mbar and a NE wind of 15knots of winds and two buoys behind the eave axis measure a pressures of 1010mbars and winds of 15 and 5knots, respectfully. There is some strong wind shear north of 99L, due to tight Upper Air wind gradient of the ULH and ULL. 99L is also embedded in are of dry air.

Another wave (98L) along 39W, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure (1011mbar) at 11N/39W, and numerous showers along its axis and the ITCZ.

A strengthening ULL is moving west near 45W, is also responsible for some of the strong wind shear north of 20N. The low can clearly be seen on Water Vapor Imagery near 26N.

Another ULL is found near the Canary Islands producing numerous showers over Southern Spain/Portugal, Morocco and Western Sahara.

A couple of strong tropical waves moving off the coast brining isolated strong T-Storms to Senegal and Mauritania in Western Africa.

An Extratropical low accompanied by northern moving warm front and a southern moving cold front, that Ive been tracking since Tuesday is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the United Kingdom, Ireland, Norway and Denmark.

Two surface Highs are found West of Spain in the Eastern Atlantic.

By Weather456...9:22AST.

Webcams from Around the tropics.......(Webcams are one of the most useful resource to get a first hand of conditions happening elsewhere in the World)

Boones Point, Antigua (Where the tropical wave is moving through)


Charlotte Harbour in Canada, where Ernesto remnants will be later.


Obanbay, Scotland, UK, where the extra topical low is streaming in moisture.
Ya kman, like I said- LB would have to overcome windshear... Have a good one all, I'm off to go camping!
LB still has a chance! Maybe the western Carib...
644. IKE
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:32 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
You know, if we continue getting fronts through here, the upper Texas Coast, our hurricane season is over. Bad news for Florida though....sorry.


You're probably right and good morning.....
have a good one littlefish
no doubt we will be here when you return
java time
bb soon
98L has a lot of convection firing up also this morning. Now up to 25kts also!
Kman, you're right....and come to think of it, the storms we've had this year are the healthiest of the bunch....hostile conditions abound, so imagine if the conditions had been good or excellent.....scary.
Correction:

A westward moving tropical wave (99L) near 60W, accompanied by a 1009mbar low near 16N, 61W, will produce showers and T-Storms over some of the islands today and spread northward to Puerto Rico on Sunday. A ship headed for Antigua, north of the wave measure a pressure of 1012mbar and a NE wind of 15knots and two buoys behind the wave axis measured a pressures of 1010mbars and winds of 15 and 5knots, respectfully. There is some strong wind shear north of 99L, due to tight Upper Air wind gradient of the ULH and ULL. 99L is also embedded in are of dry air.
The shear to 99L's west side is decreasing and to its north is 10-15kts. What shear is to the north might help creat outflow.
I'm not an expert, but I don't see 99L having problem with developing over next 24-36 hours.
So with all being said the Hurricane Hunters will investigate 99L......IF NECESSARY
Pressure Readings from near the islands:

Guadeloupe-1012.9
COOLIDGE, Antiqua - St. Kitts & Vicinity (TAPA)-1011.9
CANEFIELD, Dominica (TDCF)-1011.9
LE, Martinique Island (TFFF)-1010.8
653. IKE
Can someone post a link to a good wind shear map...

Thanks in advance.
654. IKE
Barbados had a pressure of 29.80/1009mb earlier this morning.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.htmlLink
The way the season has gone so far, I can't help but wonder if oil and gas price commodity trading is a better way of predicting storms...:)
Ok, I'm off....I have errands to run this morning.

Have a great morning everyone!
Morning everyone, I see we have another invest.Well it is September after all. Hope they just frisk the fish.
Ok, I'm off....I have errands to run this morning.

Have a great morning everyone!
Morning all!

Been a little out of the loop the past couple of days, but it looks to me like 98, if it develops will be a fish storm, and 99 should get sheared apart?

Very interesting season so far, shear and dry air have been able to prevail, so I geuss the big question now is will we be lucky enough to have this persist for the rest of the season?
Is 98l another one of those, the later it develops the more it goes west? Or is it also a later it develops the less it will ever develop?
Morning guys this is the spaghetti for 98L with obviously little time to run the models it's partially incomplete...

SFWMD



This is the spaghetti for 99L and again partially incomplete...


SFWMD
Shear Rules!
Any thought on how soon we may have a TD out of any of these two? (If ever)
98L- 1 day? 2? never?
99L- 1 dat? 2? never?
666. IKE
Steve Lyons...TWC...sure downplayed 99L...didn't say much about it.

Said 98L had a shot at developing and moving WNW.
wow the ships model is very aggressive with both of these invests which I guess is normal however it has both of these at hurricanes in 96 hours....
Dr Lyons seems to be more interested in 98. Kind of wrote 99 off, which seems reasonable given the future shear 99 will face.

My money's on wave #3, behind 99L and 98L. It's in a lower-shear, higher-moisture envronment, and has actually increased convection after sunrise (the opposite of what most waves do...)
Yeah, he said that too on that last Trop Update. Says 98L has good shot at developing and being a large system, atleast itll start off large. Didnt mention what he thought its track would be... what did he say now? Fish storm?
98L, 99L Never as of right now until recon flys in.
I heard yesterday oh it is a fish. Fish this fish that. Well how can it be a fish if it is a tropical wave.
DOes wve #3 have rotation? It does look pretty good. Isnt this the wave that the GFS develops into a big thing in a few days? Actually, isnt this the wave theyve been saying was comming for a long time??
99L was a ship storm this morning as a ship was in it.
675. IKE
Posted By: benirica at 8:59 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Yeah, he said that too on that last Trop Update. Says 98L has good shot at developing and being a large system, atleast itll start off large. Didnt mention what he thought its track would be... what did he say now? Fish storm?


On 99L...didn't really say...just a movement WNW.
676. IKE
Oops...I should have said...*98L*
#3 does seem to have a rotation under the central blob of convection. And yes, it is the one the GFS has been aggressive with the last few days.
They dont like to actually predict on Trop Updates. Arent they meteorologists? Why do they just say what the NHC says and not give their own expertise a shot?
Very conservative... but I guess they have to do it, or else theyd cause people to go crazy and scared every time something has a shot of forming.
Shear map loop shows shear is decreasing to 99L west and looks as though it will be south of shear to north. Maybe shear to north will affect 99L some over next 24, but it doesn't look strong enough to me to rip 99L apart.
The shear is strongest behind 99L to ENE.
leftovers...Fish storm refers to a storm that affects no land mass....It churns up the fishies and nothing else.


The track for 98 should be governed by how storng the high to the N is and how soon it devlops and how strong it is. If the high weakens and the storm is a little stonger it will move to the N. If the high builds in to the W then it will also get forced to the W.
StormJunkie... what are your two cents on what 98L should do? How do you think things will align for it? I live in Puerto Rico... what should I know?
Interesting a buoy near 99L reported wind speed of 27mph about 4 hours ago when the center of 99 was going over the top and a pressure that had dropped .05 in 1 hour...I think 99 does have a remote chance of doing something if the shear relaxes enough which is the tendency it is following currently..
99L, like alot of the storms weve had this year, is a fighter. It kept spinning all the way over from Africa and every day tried to get storms, even if the area was completely dry... if it just gets a little help from the shear, it will do something, its got the drive to keep going.
99L like most invests this year has to fight off dry air and shear. Most likely it will go the way of the previous disturbances and not develop. 98L has a much better chance imo. Really the most important thing I have learned on these waves is you can predict development. The only thing to do is wait.
Really the most important thing I have learned on these waves is you can predict development. The only thing to do is wait.


What??
I sure do hope that 99L does not hang on until the W Caribbean because if it does it could pose real problems, assuming by then the shear is gone.
Water temps are very high here and many a system has undergone explosive deepening in this area. Gilbert went from 120MPH after leaving Jamaica to 175 mph just W of the Caymans only 24 hrs later. Mitch was another that exploded to 180 mph in a matter of a couple of days.
What worries me a bit is that this has been such an UNPREDICTABLE season that now with the experts calling for a below average season to finish, might they be wrong again ??
I remember from Dr. Gray's forecast that one of the reasons they originally predicted an active season was stronger-than-normal easterlies. However, I wonder if anyone has looked into the possibility of those strong easterlies kicking up all the Saharan dust that has been killing development this year.
688. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:30 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Really the most important thing I have learned on these waves is you can predict development. The only thing to do is wait.


What??


Think they meant to say...can NOT predict development.
689. IKE
NEW BLOG.
savannah

one would think that once the Cape Verde season starts to shut down that would also significantly reduce the dust, leaving the Caribbean and the ATL W of 50 pretty moist.
If the shear relaxes in the latter half of the season we might see more systems firing up closer to home. Not a pleasant thought because there would be less chance for a curve out to sea
99L Invest

Morning All...99L is headed towards some considerable shear in about 24 hours so I agree that 98 may have a better chance at development in a few days, but, then again, we have seen several storms this year overcome this obstacle so all we can do is watch and wait over the next day or two....