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Joaquin Still Gripping Bahamas; #NotJoaquin Dousing Carolinas, Virginia

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 11:16 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

A potentially historic rainfall event for the Carolinas has begun, with many locations set to receive between 1 and 2 feet of rain by early next week. An intense band of thunderstorms has set up across eastern NC and northeast SC, and cells are “training” northward through this N-S band, already leading to high rainfall totals. A station at North Myrtle Beach, SC, reported 8.03” in the 24 hours up through 6:24 pm EDT Friday. More than half of that amount (4.30”) fell during the last two hours of that period.


Figure 1. Composite NWS/NEXRAD radar image from 2215Z (6:15 pm EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015. Image credit: WU’s Storm app for iPad.

The culprits behind this unique event are an upper-level low cutting off across the Florida Panhandle; a preexisting frontal boundary along the U.S. East Coast; and a flow of deep, rich tropical moisture, including some from Hurricane Joaquin (see below), streaming into the region. As the upper low slowly moves across the region, a weak surface low will form along the boundary somewhere near the South Carolina coast, causing the most intense swath of rainfall to pivot around its north side across the Carolinas.

When the frontal zone hits the mountainous western part of the state, upslope flow will add to the rainfall intensity and exacerbate the potential for landslides and mudslides. Models suggest that the strength of the inflow of moist air into this system is at record or near-record values for the time of year; wind speeds at the 850-millibar level (about a mile above the surface) are projected to be as high as 75 mph by Sunday. The projected rainfall amounts are in line with these extreme values (see our morning post for more details).

Does the Carolinas storm qualify as a “nor’easter”? Strictly speaking, it does: the AMS glossary defines “nor’easter” (“northeast storm”) simply as “a cyclonic storm of the east coast of North America, so called because the winds over the coastal area are from the northeast.” The term is most often used in connection with winter storms at more northerly U.S. locations. Another term for the event, quickly taking hold on Twitter, is #NotJoaquin.


Figure 2. The Congaree River at Carolina Eastman, about 10 miles south of downtown Columbia, SC, is projected to approach its record crest of 126.9 feet by late Monday. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Major coastal/tidal flooding under way in Hampton Roads
The lower Chesapeake Bay region of Virginia is seeing one of its worst flood events in years, as persistent onshore flow is pushing water into the region through multiple tidal cycles. Heavy rainfall in the vicinity is only making matters worse. Coastal and tidal flooding will persist during the weekend from New Jersey to North Carolina, with conditions expected to be the worst in coastal Virginia, including the Hampton Roads area surrounding Norfolk. Extensive street flooding has already been observed in many low-lying parts of the region, and the situation may deteriorate further over the weekend, especially as surface low pressure wraps up in the Carolinas and the onshore flow intensifies on Sunday. See our morning post for more on the particulars behind this unfolding situation.


Figure 3. Quinn Hurt looks across Atlantic Avenue as he attempts to cross the flooded street in Wachapreague, VA, on Friday, October 2, 2015. Wachapreague is located on the Atlantic shore toward the south end of the Delmarva peninsula. Image credit: Jay Diem/The Daily Times, via AP.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Joaquin over the Bahamas as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Friday, October 2, 2015, at approximately 12:30 pm EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 130 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 5. Hurricane Joaquin in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015, as photographed from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible at the top. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.

Joaquin continues to rake Bahamas
Hurricane Joaquin was still hammering parts of the Central Bahamas late Friday. Joaquin is one of the strongest hurricanes known to affect the Bahamas during October, with Category 4 conditions affecting several islands for the better part of 24 hours. Joaquin was a Category 3 hurricane, with top sustained winds of 125 mph, as of the 5:00 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Joaquin was moving north at 10 mph, but infrared satellite imagery shows that Joaquin’s showers and thunderstorms have expanded and intensified over the last several hours, so heavy rain and high winds are no doubt continuing to strafe much of the Central Bahama Islands. Joaquin’s center passed almost directly over the island of San Salvador late Friday afternoon, as a weather station there reported a pressure of 944.3 mb (27.88”). The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. A cargo ship named El Faro, with 33 crew members aboard, has gone missing en route from Jacksonville, FL, to Puerto Rico. The last report from the ship, on Thursday, indicated that it had lost power and begun to list while located near Crooked Island, which would put it in or near the slow-moving eyewall of Joaquin. Two Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft were unsuccessful in attempts to locate the ship on Friday afternoon.

Wunderground member ExumaMET, located on the island of Exuma, posted this update on Friday afternoon:

“Joaquin had been giving us one good final lashing that coincided with the flood tide. Some spots on Exuma are seeing 5-6 foot surges and an entire portion of George town is under water. The back of my house is protected by an extensive mangrove system and I actually have 5 foot swells running. Also there have been at least 2 cruising yachts that have sunk in George town with more that have broken their moorings and are either drifting or already on the rocks. Makes me thankful this storm did not come west an extra 20 miles. I can't get through to anyone in Williams town to find out what the damage is like... They are the closest to where [Joaquin] passed. Going on my 3rd day without power.”


Figure 6. Satellite image of atmospheric water vapor, collected at 1915Z (3:15 pm EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015. A narrow channel of strong upper-level southerlies is positioned near the U.S. East Coast, ahead of a distinct upper-level low cutting off near the Florida Panhandle (the low’s swirl is visible in the tan color, denoting relatively dry air). An outflow channel can be seen running from Joaquin to the mid-Atlantic coast. Well to Joaquin’s east is an upper-level low, and even further out is Invest 90L, incorporating remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Out to sea (knock on wood!)
With the 12Z Friday guidance, we can pretty much put to rest the idea that Joaquin will directly strike the Carolinas, an outcome that most models were projecting as recently as two days ago. All of the major dynamical and statistical track models used by the National Hurricane Center were moving Joaquin toward the north and northeast from its current location. In addition, nearly all of the GFS ensemble members (GEFS) show the offshore track. Even the possibility of a glancing blow to Cape Cod now appears to be a far-fetched solution, although Joaquin could move close enough to intensify the high surf and strong wind that will already cover a vast area to the hurricane’s north.

If you only had Figure 6, and no other pieces of evidence, you might be hard-pressed to imagine that Joaquin will be going out to sea. The NW-SE orientation of Joaquin’s outflow suggests that the hurricane is being tugged in the direction of the U.S. East Coast by the very strong south-southwest flow present there. However, the weak upper-level low evident to the northeast of Joaquin is the key. As it moves north in tandem with Invest 90L, located further east, this low will help create a pathway for Joaquin to zip north-northeast, parallel to the U.S. East Coast but far offshore. Joaquin may lose some of its classic symmetry on satellite as it gains speed, although it will remain a potent wind-producer for several days to come. The hurricane will also send powerful swells toward the U.S. East Coast throughout the weekend and into early next week.

We’ll be back with our next update on Saturday afternoon.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JLPR2
If the eye gains some more symmetry and the convection cools some more on the eastern side of the eyewall we could get a brief cat 5.

Quoting 476. Gearsts:

La nina and the MDR looking like that on the pic, 2016 could be a crazy year.
especially if the steering patterns are the same, could be a big year for the gulf, and the hurricane streak in FL may be snapped.... If 2015 produced a Cat 4 almost impacting the east coast like Sandy, I can just imagine what 2016 will bring witha Super La Nina....
BERMUDA needs to keep tabs on this vary power full storm
Quoting 496. tiggeriffic:



there ya go.... Jim Cantore talking about football.... it IS weather related today!


Just ignore it..

Memorial Stadium can hold over 81, 500 people..I really hope people just stay home..as he said people are going to have a different story in leaving the game versus arriving as this even will peak during the second half..
Quoting 498. CybrTeddy:

I hope they dropped a dropsonde during that pass to better gauge the intensity of Joaquin, because that was an extremely impressive pass.


Given the pass, I think it should be bumped up to 120-125kts at least. The eye is continuing to become better defined and it still has another 24 hours or so to keep strengthening. I think it could become an upper end category 4 or even a category 5 briefly if it keeps organising at its current rate.
Quoting 501. JLPR2:

If the eye gains some more symmetry and the convection cools some more on the eastern side of the eyewall we could get a brief cat 5.


So that's how easy we can get a cat 5 on the Atlantic?Then Igor was a cat 5! ;)
Im hoping that JQ can reach that cat 5 milestone! He deserves it lol. A storm reaching that strength during a Super El Nino is unheard of and that "defies science."
Quoting 501. JLPR2:

If the eye gains some more symmetry and the convection cools some more on the eastern side of the eyewall we could get a brief cat 5.



If you all look very closely, you can see that Joaquin is in the process of wrapping new colder cloudtops on that eastern eyewall. Look closely at the 1445 image. Anyone else see it ???
Quoting 504. ncstorm:



Just ignore it..

Memorial Stadium can hold over 81, 500 people..I really hope people just stay home..as he said people are going to have a different story in leaving the game versus arriving as this even will peak during the second half..
Imagine all those college students being drunk and driving in knee high water, may be some deaths....
Quoting 506. Gearsts:

So that's how easy we can get a cat 5 on the Atlantic?Then Igor was a cat 5! ;)



I have no doubt it was, but there's no evidence to support it unfortunately. Just proves the value of recon.
And we have Tropical Storm Oho, forecast to rapidly intensify, south of Hawaii and drifting northward,
JQ is moving ENE defiantly no NE
Quoting 511. BayFog:

And we have Tropical Storm Oho, forecast to rapidly intensify, south of Hawaii and drifting northward,

Willl Hawaii dodge another bullet?
As to the worry about Lake Hartwell overtopping its levees/dams into Death Valley, er, the Clemson stadium, It's probably time to note that the Upstate has been having a bad drought, so the lakes are --or were-- at very low levels and can take quite a lot of filling before they reach flood stage.

It might be all right, especially if this "band" of rain clears the immediate Spartanburg area, but I bet people are already driving up there for tonight's game, and it does seem crazy. I'm a Clemson fan myself, but I wish there was some way they could delay or change venues.
515. JLPR2
Quoting 506. Gearsts:

So that's how easy we can get a cat 5 on the Atlantic?Then Igor was a cat 5! ;)



I do think it was a cat 5, if only recon could have gone in there. :|
Quoting 510. CybrTeddy:



I have no doubt it was, but there's no evidence to support it unfortunately. Just proves the value of recon.
And all those cat 4 TC on the Wpac.
Quoting 515. JLPR2:



I do think it was a cat 5, if only recon could have gone in there. :|
don't worry it has another 12-20 hrs of strengthening before some weakening.
Quoting 471. Gearsts:

LOL


Wayyy!! too soon but 2016 HS seems nice here.
519. TXCWC
Strange radar image out of TX. Never seen that before. Any thoughts?


The worrying thing for Bermuda is that if it does hit them, they'll likely get the stronger side of the system (the eastern section). Even if it doesn't make landfall in Bermuda though, they will still likely get tropical storm/hurricane conditions at times due to the size of the system. Fingers crossed it moves well to the west of Bermuda.


Quoting 507. Camerooski:

Im hoping that JQ can reach that cat 5 milestone! He deserves it lol. A storm reaching that strength during a Super El Nino is unheard of and that "defies science."



and whats even more un heard of is the E PAC has not even had one cat 5 and its a super EL Nino am finding it vary hard on why the E PAC has been so dead the E PAC has had 13 name storms wish is vary low for a super EL nino if we can get 3 more name storms on are side then we will be tide with the E PAC for name storms the we may all so be tide with the C PAC soon if they can get 4 more name storms the W PAC this year may be are big winner for name storms
522. FOREX
Quoting 509. Camerooski:

Imagine all those college students being drunk and driving in knee high water, may be some deaths....
Charleston must have the same morons making decisions that we have here in Panama City Beach.
The eye doing that Wilma thing.
ok, I am out for a bit...if I am going to be stuck inside for all this rain, I might as well do something constructive while we still have power...
Quoting 522. FOREX:

Charleston must have the same morons making decisions that we have here in Panama City Beach.


the game isn't in Charleston....we only have the Citadel...and they WOULD have canceled
Quoting 504. ncstorm:



Just ignore it..

Memorial Stadium can hold over 81, 500 people..I really hope people just stay home..as he said people are going to have a different story in leaving the game versus arriving as this even will peak during the second half..


Tickets were going for $1400....they aren't staying home.
Quoting 521. Tazmanian:




and whats even more un heard of is the E PAC has not even had one cat 5 and its a super EL Nino am finding it vary hard on why the E PAC has been so dead the E PAC has had 13 name storms wish is vary low for a super EL nino if we can get 3 more name storms on are side then we will be tide with the E PAC for name storms the we may all so be tide with the C PAC soon if they can get 4 more name storms the W PAC this year may be are big winner for name storms
529. JLPR2
St. Thomas is feeling Joaquin's tail.
75 °F
Wind speed: 5.8 mph
Wind from N
Pressure 29.89 in
Visibility 0.5 miles
Clouds Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Overcast 2900 ft
Dew Point 75 °F
Humidity 100%
Rainfall 3.52 in
CPac Depression 8-C, perhaps the future Pali, displaying a peculiarly marked anti-cyclonic cloud pattern. Located southwest of Hawaii, drifting to the SW and fighting off some southerly shear.
This strange light helped wake me up today, I've heard it's called the sun.

Quoting 515. JLPR2:



I do think it was a cat 5, if only recon could have gone in there. :|


Floyd looked like a 5 near the Bahamas, but stayed as high as you can go at a 4

Strong La-Nina next year is not known at this point. Looking more likely a continued but very weak El-Nino or even more likely a neutral season. Gulf is closed, CV's all but done, now it's the western Caribbean and Florida lows entering the Atlantic. Now that ex Ida is fading, we may be looking at one possibly two more storms this year. Has been a wild El-Nino season as the central Pacific saw it's busiest season on record, the NW Pacific had a top five ever year, and the west Pacific and east Pacific had very active seasons. And the topping on the cake was the busiest season ever recorded in the Atlantic basin during a strong El-Nino year.
Quoting 519. TXCWC:

Strange radar image out of TX. Never seen that before. Any thoughts?

ye I saw that too, if you look at a reg. rdar it shows nothing...
Quoting 507. Camerooski:

Im hoping that JQ can reach that cat 5 milestone! He deserves it lol. A storm reaching that strength during a Super El Nino is unheard of and that "defies science."


I'd be rooting for it to if it wasn't a threat to Bermuda..
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3m3 minutes ago
The eye temperature at flight-level (700mb) jumped 8C between the last 2 recon passes.
Quoting 532. DeepSeaRising:

Strong La-Nina next year is not known at this point. Looking more likely a continued but very weak El-Nino or even more likely a neutral season. Gulf is closed, CV's all but done, now it's the western Caribbean and Florida lows entering the Atlantic. Now that ex Ida is fading, we may be looking at one possibly two more storms this year. Has been a wild El-Nino season as the central Pacific saw it's busiest season on record, the NW Pacific had a top five ever year, and the west Pacific and east Pacific had very active seasons. And the topping on the cake was the busiest season ever recorded in the Atlantic basin during a strong El-Nino year.
It is common to see a La Nina after a Strong El Nino...
Quoting 520. Envoirment:



The worrying thing for Bermuda is that if it does hit them, they'll likely get the stronger side of the system (the eastern section). Even if it doesn't make landfall in Bermuda though, they will still likely get tropical storm/hurricane conditions at times due to the size of the system. Fingers crossed it moves well to the west of Bermuda.




The strongest sector is usually located to the right of the direction of storm motion (storm motion plus wind velocity), and with Joaquin on a northeast heading, that would make the southeast to east quarter of the storm the windiest.
Will the recon make another pass?
Quoting 522. FOREX:

Charleston must have the same morons making decisions that we have here in Panama City Beach.

Not Charleston. Clemson is in the upstate.
Quoting 499. FOREX:

I would expect the Clemson game to be canceled in the next 2 hours or so.


ESPN's college game day, primetime game? They will do everything possible to play tonight. $$$
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 18 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 14:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2551'N 7148'W (25.85N 71.8W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,523m (8,278ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (147) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233 at 144kts (From the SW at ~ 165.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (148) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13C (55F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (148) from the flight level center at 14:46:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23C (73F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (313) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Eye sonde failed. Moderate turbulence inbound. Clear above in Center.


If they go by those surface winds, this could already be a CAT 5
The stadium is located in Greenville, right now Greenville hasn't had to much rain, however the line of storms is supposed to move further south towards Greenville later this afternoon, and the worst of the rain according the both the models, and Dr. Greg Postel should be right around 7:30, an hour before kickoff...
Joaquin is very nearly a Category 5 hurricane this morning. A dropsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured 181 mph at 948mb.
The dropsonde recorded 181 MPH winds at 700 feet i wonder how much it really slows down at the surface.
Quoting 536. Camerooski:

It is common to see a La Nina after a Strong El Nino...
After a strong El Nino, the following year most often produced a weak La Nina. The El Nino in 57-58 was followed by a weak El Nino. Only 97-98 was followed by a moderate La Nina. We really aren't guaranteed anything the year after a strong El Nino, especially since we don't know if this will be a two year event.

Link
Summerville is in Dorchester County. 2600 people w/o power in Dorchester. Fortunately we still have power!!!!
Is recon leaving?
Quoting 544. belizeit:

The dropsonde recorded 181 MPH winds at 700 feet i wonder how much it really slows down at the surface.



I wondered if we'd see Joaquin make a second peak after leaving the Bahamas behind, looks to be certain. Further from the upwelled waters and further from the trough that could shear it.
Quoting 545. sar2401:

After a strong El Nino, the following year most often produced a weak La Nina. The El Nino in 57-58 was followed by a weak El Nino. Only 97-98 was followed by a moderate La Nina. We really aren't guaranteed anything the year after a strong El Nino, especially since we don't know if this will be a two year event.

Link
Most models are pointing too a neutral year or a Moderate La Nina...
It's amzing. Joaquin looks the best it ever has. It might finally make that push to Cat 5 before it goes out to sea.
Quoting 543. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Joaquin is very nearly a Category 5 hurricane this morning. A dropsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured 181 mph at 948mb.


Strong argument could be made for at least 130 knots, IMO.
F304 Mission #13 into JOAQUIN
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished

As of 15:32 UTC Oct 03, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 27.42°N 73.70°W
Bearing: 297° at 245 kt
Altitude: 6511 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 15 kt at 3°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A
Yes they are leaving hurricanes101
Quoting 550. aidaman:

It's amzing. Joaquin looks the best it ever has. It might finally make that push to Cat 5 before it goes out to sea.



not fully going out too sea yet BERMUDA is next
Quoting 549. Camerooski:

Most models are pointing too a neutral year or a Moderate La Nina...
because models are so dependable.
10/3/2015. UPDATED!!! Just minutes after I posted this video the Hurricane Hunter found that Major Hurricane Joaquin that already had regained Category 4 status with 130 mph winds at the 11:00 AM Advisory is now a Strong Category 4 Hurricane with 155 mph winds and is moving away from Bahamas. A cargo ship named El Faro with 33 people traveling from Jacksonville, Florida to San Juan, Puerto Rico went missing near the eye of Hurricane Joaquin on October 1, 2015 and is still missing..Link
Quoting 513. Camerooski:

Willl Hawaii dodge another bullet?

Looks like the models including especially the Euro have the storm coming very close to the Big Island, then shooting off to the NE. In fact, surprisingly, the ECMWF tracks Oho to a position off the Northern California coast in about a week's time.
Quoting 535. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3m3 minutes ago
The eye temperature at flight-level (700mb) jumped 8C between the last 2 recon passes.

And last vortex reading says eyewall is closed now. Was opened towards the northwest earlier.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WeatherPR- one of my coworkers hubby is on the El Faro...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH WINDS...
12:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 3
Location: 26.0°N 71.6°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
Quoting 544. belizeit:

The dropsonde recorded 181 MPH winds at 700 feet i wonder how much it really slows down at the surface.

Looks like the sonde that got the 186 mph wind did so at 892 mb, which is not 700 feet. The measurement at 946 mb, much closer to the surface, was 115 mph.

Link
563. 900MB
Quoting 540. win1gamegiantsplease:



ESPN's college game day, primetime game? They will do everything possible to play tonight. $$$


No doubt!
564. 900MB
Quoting 559. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


Whoa!
Quoting 563. 900MB:



No doubt!


Cantore is picking games on gameday. They're playing ball today unless Death Valley floats away.
Looks like Joaquin is moving almost directly over it's own previous path as it drifted southwest, as it now moves northeast.
Quoting 565. win1gamegiantsplease:



Cantore is picking games on gameday. They're playing ball today unless Death Valley floats away.


I thought Cantore was an NBC employee, or do they no longer own TWC? I know they're trying to sell it.
I'm not sure why the WPC had expected the heaviest rain to be over interior South Carolina, Columbia SC for example has had barely over an inch so far. No way are going to get over 12 inches. Coastal and areas within 30 miles from the coast have had much more so far not surprisingly like Charleston. When ocean rainfall is moving onshore, coastal areas act like a density boundary, almost like a front. Lifting potential mechanisms are different over land than over water.
Looking more and more ugly for Bermuda
Quoting 562. sar2401:

Looks like the sonde that got the 186 mph wind did so at 892 mb, which is not 700 feet. The measurement at 946 mb, much closer to the surface, was 115 mph.

Link


925mb 214m (702 ft) 157 knots (181 mph)

Wasn't a surface reading due to a dropsonde malfunction, but 135 knots seems reasonable IMO. If the eye continues to warm by the next recon it will likely be a Category 5 hurricane.
571. IDTH
Quoting 554. aquak9:

because models are so dependable.

They actually do a good job of predicting whether there is going to be a La Nina or El Nino.
Quoting 561. CybrTeddy:

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH WINDS...
12:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 3
Location: 26.0°N 71.6°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
Well, they went right up on that one. Only a 3 mb pressure drop though.
Quoting 559. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


The winds are now corresponding to what a usual ~930 mb storm is for its size.
Quoting 559. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES



Incredible that we have nearly a category 5 hurricane now this season. There's no reason why Joaquin couldn't deepen a bit more and reach category 5.
Quoting 570. CybrTeddy:



925mb 214m (702 ft) 157 knots (181 mph)

Wasn't a surface reading due to a dropsonde malfunction, but 135 knots seems reasonable IMO. If the eye continues to warm by the next recon it will likely be a Category 5 hurricane.
Missed that 925mb reading, Seems like a lot of turbulence in the drop path, which I guess is consistent with a strengthening storm.
South of Forecast points...

Some eye candy for weather enthusiasts: shiny cyclone south of Greenland. It's going to hit Iceland tomorrow.



Little sibling - cold air pool circulation - currently swirling over France, causing severe weather in the southeastern corner of the country with large hail and so on:


(Orange color = cold and dry air).
Quoting 572. sar2401:

Well, they went right up on that one. Only a 3 mb pressure drop though.


Well prior it was having some inner core issues and what appeared to be an eyewall replacement at times, so it was difficult for the pressure drops to directly result in windspeed increase.
Quoting 567. MysteryMeat:



I thought Cantore was an NBC employee, or do they no longer own TWC? I know they're trying to sell it.


He's just a guest winner picker, they have a guest every weekend.
NHC @ 11 am
Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC
forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus,
calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler
waters.


NHC @ noon
*#@&$!
Quoting 571. IDTH:


They actually do a good job of predicting whether there is going to be a La Nina or El Nino.
Except for 2014, when it was a complete miss. We probably know less about predicting ENSO than most other events.
Things like this really make you wonder how powerful those big typhoons get when out at sea in the Western Pacific. I imagine if there was recon there, they would find quite a few sub-900mb storms a year and many with very powerful winds.

I wonder if Joaquin can make it to category 5 status? Still a bit more time for it to strengthen/organise into one.
Quoting 554. aquak9:

because models are so dependable.
more knowledgeable than you and me....
poor BERMUDA
12:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 3
Location: 26.0°N 71.6°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
Quoting 579. win1gamegiantsplease:



He's just a guest winner picker, they have a guest every weekend.


Yeah, but usually TV folks have to get clearance to appear on a rival's channel, and while nobody would dare to compare NBC Sports Channel to ESPN, technically they're still rivals.

Maybe NBC doesn't care. Or maybe Cantore doesn't. Still, though.
Hartwell, Keowee, and Jocasee are all a few feet down.
Quoting 514. GreyJewel:

As to the worry about Lake Hartwell overtopping its levees/dams into Death Valley, er, the Clemson stadium, It's probably time to note that the Upstate has been having a bad drought, so the lakes are --or were-- at very low levels and can take quite a lot of filling before they reach flood stage.
588. IDTH
Can anyone tell me whether this would be a trough split? 12Z GFS 48 hours out.
Does the unexpected restrengthening have any implications on the track of Joaquin?
Quoting 582. Envoirment:

Things like this really make you wonder how powerful those big typhoons get when out at sea in the Western Pacific. I imagine if there was recon there, they would find quite a few sub-900mb storms a year and many with very powerful winds.

I wonder if Joaquin can make it to category 5 status? Still a bit more time for it to strengthen/organise into one.
Sure makes you realize satellite pictures and DVORAK are not capable of catching these kinds of rapid intensifications. Some of that might also explain hurricanes where the wind damage is worse than recorded wind speeds. I'm waiting for the day when there's a global fleet of UAVs in every storm in every basin, managed by a cooperative group of major nations.


I'm also waiting for that quarter from the tooth fairy... :-)
Fabian is 2003 hit Bermuda as a Cat 3. If Joaquin can get too Cat 5, I think Joaquin can surpass Fabian, and hit the Island as a strong 3 or 4... Joaquin hates island countries that start with B...
Quoting 589. fabian171017:

Does the unexpected restrengthening have any implications on the track of Joaquin?
I was waiting for this post. No, it doesn't
593. IDTH
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Except for 2014, when it was a complete miss. We probably know less about predicting ENSO than most other events.

I mean it was essentially an El Nino that they were predicting last year i'm pretty sure, yes it was more neutral based but it was more towards the east pacific side than the Atlantic. 2013 was just a weird year. Anyway i'm out for now, i'll be probably be back in about 2 hours.
Quoting 580. MysteryMeat:

NHC @ 11 am
Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC
forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus,
calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler
waters.


NHC @ noon
*#@&$!



Hahahaha....wish I had more + to give.
Quoting 592. sar2401:

I was waiting for this post. No, it doesn't

In fact, it's more likely the opposite. The acceleration to the NE is tightening the gradient and also adding the velocity of the storm motion to the rotary wind.
Quoting 588. IDTH:

Can anyone tell me whether this would be a trough split? 12Z GFS 48 hours out.

Looks more like a ridge between two troughs.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 10m10 minutes ago
While not quite Category 5 -- if Hurricane #Joaquin were in the Western Pacific -- it would be a Super Typhoon.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 12m12 minutes ago
Whoa -- Hurricane #Joaquin up to 135-knots based on recon -- on the edge of Category 5.
Quoting 570. CybrTeddy:



925mb 214m (702 ft) 157 knots (181 mph)

Wasn't a surface reading due to a dropsonde malfunction, but 135 knots seems reasonable IMO. If the eye continues to warm by the next recon it will likely be a Category 5 hurricane.


The issue Joaquin has had issues with producing a a great looking eye on satellite is because it's had some inner core issues with producing sinking air in the eye. Although honestly, it's been exaggerated by it's deep convective bursts. The reason why it's more difficult for hurricanes with very deep convection to clear out the eye is because there is that much more thick, high, anvil cloud mass to spread out horizontally, and thus harder for the sinking in the eye to clear out.


You'll notice that hurricanes with convection not nearly as deep as Joaquin can often attain great looking cleared out eyes at intensities as low as 110-115 mph. Hurricane Arther was like this last year, it looked great on satellite but was more bark than bite.



Quoting 593. IDTH:


I mean it was essentially an El Nino that they were predicting last year i'm pretty sure, yes it was more neutral based but it was more towards the east pacific side than the Atlantic. 2013 was just a weird year. Anyway i'm out for now, i'll be probably be back in about 2 hours.
It was a completely blown forecast for El Nino in 2014. At least one person here has lots of information about that.
Quoting 506. Gearsts:

So that's how easy we can get a cat 5 on the Atlantic?Then Igor was a cat 5! ;)



Igor was gorgeous.

It has rained three days consecutively here in Halifax, NS. Still not used to this!
I remember checking in with NHC a few hours ago and JQ was at 125 mph winds. Now it is at 155... Did I miss something? Some year this is turning out to be. Very unpredictable.
According to HURDAT, if Joaquin is upgraded, it would be the only Cat 5 hurricane in the Atlantic north of 20N during October.
Interesting mr Levi Cowan.
Quoting 578. Jedkins01:



Well prior it was having some inner core issues and what appeared to be an eyewall replacement at times, so it was difficult for the pressure drops to directly result in windspeed increase.
Has it actually gone through a complete EWRC yet? Seems like a long time for such a major storm not to have had one. Maybe the deep convection has something to do with that though.
So.....

I just had to broom away a fairly large snake off my back porch. He was trying to get in.
Quoting 599. sar2401:

It was a completely blown forecast for El Nino in 2014. At least one person here has lots of information about that.

I completely agree the well below average hurricane was rammed down our throats. The El Nino was suppose to shear everything or mostly everything. So much for that
Quoting 601. LemieT:

I remember checking in with NHC a few hours ago and JQ was at 125 mph winds. Now it is at 155... Did I miss something? Some year this is turning out to be. Very unpredictable.


It went up to 130 at 8 I believe, Joaquin has really gotten itself together today. Cloud tops are warming, the eye is tightening up, and the pressure is gradually lowering. Two outflow channels, and being further from the trough means less shear, not to mention the light-moderate shear ahead of it is expected to lessen.
Quoting 582. Envoirment:

Things like this really make you wonder how powerful those big typhoons get when out at sea in the Western Pacific. I imagine if there was recon there, they would find quite a few sub-900mb storms a year and many with very powerful winds.

I wonder if Joaquin can make it to category 5 status? Still a bit more time for it to strengthen/organise into one.


Yeah I know, it bugs me that we don't get recon for WPAC storms. How many times have we seen where recon ends up finding a much stronger hurricane than the satellite estimates supported? More times than I can count...

I realize that we have to use something to be the official intensity, so if not actual recon, satellite is the next best estimate. But what bugs me is when people act like this type of scientific data is scientific fact in terms of that such events were exactly true, when they are simply best estimates. Like I said, it's better than nothing, but people need to understand that actual intensities of TC's documented only be satellite may have been quite different in intensity than we have them. Not saying satellite estimates are terrible, but we know from evidence they can be quite off at times, especially with intense and/or intensifying TC's.
Quoting 601. LemieT:

I remember checking in with NHC a few hours ago and JQ was at 125 mph winds. Now it is at 155... Did I miss something? Some year this is turning out to be. Very unpredictable.
An apparent rapid bout of rapid intensification. Joaquin continues to amaze.
610. 900MB
Quoting 574. Jedkins01:




Incredible that we have nearly a category 5 hurricane now this season. There's no reason why Joaquin couldn't deepen a bit more and reach category 5.


I thought 155mph is the min # for a Cat 5?
Quoting 601. LemieT:

I remember checking in with NHC a few hours ago and JQ was at 125 mph winds. Now it is at 155... Did I miss something? Some year this is turning out to be. Very unpredictable.


It's what happens when you pit best scientific estimates using satellites vs actual measurements :)

Though satellite loop indicates it's also in a strengthen trend too, so it's a combination of both a trend of intensity while also getting recon vs estimates.
Quoting 605. nash36:

So.....

I just had to broom away a fairly large snake off my back porch. He was trying to get in.
Snikk! Not the last one probably
Quoting 610. 900MB:



I thought 155mph is the min # for a Cat 5?

157 mph +
Quoting 604. sar2401:

Has it actually gone through a complete EWRC yet? Seems like a long time for such a major storm not to have had one. Maybe the deep convection has something to do with that though.


It went through one yesterday, which is why we saw the weakening trend.
615. 900MB
Quoting 613. tiggerhurricanes2001:


157 mph +


Ha. So close.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3m3 minutes ago
At Joaquin's latitude (26N), nothing in the Atlantic has ever reached this intensity at this time of year or later in the historical record.
Quoting 607. win1gamegiantsplease:



It went up to 130 at 8 I believe, Joaquin has really gotten itself together today. Cloud tops are warming, the eye is tightening up, and the pressure is gradually lowering. Two outflow channels, and being further from the trough means less shear, not to mention the light-moderate shear ahead of it is expected to lessen.
Went from 120 at 5:00 to 125 at 8:00, 130 at 11:00, and now 155. It's been strengthening for a while and now, and now put on this show, but it may also be this aircraft was at the right place at the right time.
Quoting 610. 900MB:



I thought 155mph is the min # for a Cat 5?


It's 157 mph, and since the NHC does 5 mph increments, it will need to be 160 to be a category 5, which is still right next door.
Quoting 612. aquak9:

Snikk! Not the last one probably


Sadly, probably not.
I think we're going to get ripped off again on having a likely Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic classified as a strong Cat 4 instead... 157kt winds at 700ft, plus 138kts on an HDOB at the surface? That's good enough for a 140kt classification from me. Not a big deal obviously, but surely this was technically a Cat 5 at some point this morning, and maybe still is. Problem is, it's accelerating into very high shear now. The window for strengthening is closed or soon will be. By the time next recon gets there, it should be weaker.

What an amazing storm though, never would've expected one like this in a super El Nino year, especially not in October. Those record SSTs made it happen.

Really coming down near Conway. Still sunny here, though that will likely change tonight. Sunday night-Monday will be the worse days for ILM.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201511_ sat.jpg

One heck of a wind producer. 190 mph gusts. I think I'm gonna go and start looking for colleges that offer meteorology as a major down here in Georgia. I'll be graduating a year early, due to me taking advanced courses, so 2018 is my graduating year. It's time to start looking now don't you think???
Quoting 617. sar2401:

Went from 120 at 5:00 to 125 at 8:00, 130 at 11:00, and now 155. It's been strengthening for a while and now, and now put on this show, but it may also be this aircraft was at the right place at the right time.


130 at 11, right my mistake. We're fortunate to have the HH, invaluable work.
Quoting 604. sar2401:

Has it actually gone through a complete EWRC yet? Seems like a long time for such a major storm not to have had one. Maybe the deep convection has something to do with that though.


It was going through one yesterday actually, just some hurricanes aren't as dramatic about it as others. That's why Joaquin had such amazingly low pressure for a category 3. During eyewall replacement cycles, the wind field will expand and the pressure gradient loosens due to the double eyewall or shared eyewall structure. Once a single eyewall takes over, providing that atmospheric conditions are favorable, the hurricane can quickly intensify again as the pressure gradient tightens back up to respond to the lower pressures.
Quoting 622. tiggerhurricanes2001:

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201511 _ sat.jpg

One heck of a wind producer. 190 mph gusts. I think I'm gonna go and start looking for colleges that offer meteorology as a major down here in Georgia. I'll be graduating a year early, due to me taking advanced courses, so 2018 is my graduating year. It's time to start looking now don't you think???


Georgia Tech has a program I think. And it's never too early to visit.
Anyone know when recon will return to the system? I see two planes flying 'Untasked Missions', but I think that may just be them headed over to Hawaii to investigate TS Oho.
Quoting 620. MAweatherboy1:

I think we're going to get ripped off again on having a likely Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic classified as a strong Cat 4 instead... 157kt winds at 700ft, plus 138kts on an HDOB at the surface? That's good enough for a 140kt classification from me. Not a big deal obviously, but surely this was technically a Cat 5 at some point this morning, and maybe still is. Problem is, it's accelerating into very high shear now. The window for strengthening is closed or soon will be. By the time next recon gets there, it should be weaker.

What an amazing storm though, never would've expected one like this in a super El Nino year, especially not in October. Those record SSTs made it happen.




Yeah and just think, if steering currents were different, we could have been talking a category 4-5 hurricane in South FL during this "lame and crappy" season.
Lol, look at the path of Jaoquin. It did a complete 180 and is almost back to where it started. What an unusual path it has had.

Quoting 626. Thing342:

Anyone know when recon will return to the system? I see two planes flying 'Untasked Missions', but I think that may just be them headed over to Hawaii to investigate TS Oho.



this is the best place too go too find out info on when the recon is heading out and time

Link
Quoting 628. stormchaser14:

Lol, look at the path of Jaoquin. It did a complete 180 and is almost back to where it started.





what if this storm did a other loop and head back too the Bahamas
Quoting 506. Gearsts:

So that's how easy we can get a cat 5 on the Atlantic?Then Igor was a cat 5! ;)




I really do think if recon was in Igor was probably 165-175 mph, it looked identical in presentation and structure to Katrina when recon found Katrina as a category 5 175 mph.

Unfortunately we didn't get that data so we can only speculate.
632. 7544
Quoting 566. BayFog:

Looks like Joaquin is moving almost directly over it's own previous path as it drifted southwest, as it now moves northeast.


yep lets hope he dosent decide to make u turn like ida did where she was suppose to go way ne notice her clouds moving west to meet jo
Quoting 628. stormchaser14:

Lol, look at the path of Jaoquin. It did a complete 180 and is almost back to where it started. What an unusual path it has had.



Didn't it start as a low off of the Carolina coast?
Hurricane JOAQUIN
12:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2015
Location: 26.0°N 71.6°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
wow winds 155mph i did not see this coming i am happy the storm going out to sea
Quoting 626. Thing342:

Anyone know when recon will return to the system? I see two planes flying 'Untasked Missions', but I think that may just be them headed over to Hawaii to investigate TS Oho.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 03 OCTOBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 04/2330Z A. 05/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1611A JOAQUIN B. AFXXX 1711A JOAQUIN
C. 04/2000Z C. 05/0830Z
D. 33.0N 66.9W D. 35.0N 65.5W
E. 04/2300Z TO 05/0200Z E. 05/1100Z TO 05/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT

Looks like the first scheduled flight is happening now.
Quoting 633. wxsample:



Didn't it start as a low off of the Carolina coast?


no it did not it was a ULL that worked it way did the the surface that was down by PR that we been tracking a week or two a go be for it got in named
Quoting 627. Jedkins01:



Yeah and just think, if steering currents were different, we could have been talking a category 4-5 hurricane in South FL during this "lame and crappy" season.
Could have been Andrew 2.0
Quoting 631. Jedkins01:




I really do think if recon was in Igor was probably 165-175 mph, it looked identical in presentation and structure to Katrina when recon found Katrina as a category 5 175 mph.

Unfortunately we didn't get that data so we can only speculate.
I think once they start getting more drones out there when recon can't be there, that's when we'll start to get more updated data.
Quoting 633. wxsample:



Didn't it start as a low off of the Carolina coast?
No, it was a low out in the Atlantic well north of Hispaniola.
Wait wait wait, are you serious? Joaquin is at 155 mph? What?!
Quoting 637. Tazmanian:



no it did not it was a ULL that worked it way did the the surface that was down by PR that we been tracking a week or two a go be for it got in named


FWIW, Joaquin is the strongest Atlantic hurricane that, as far as I can tell, to develop independently from a warm-core source.
On the evidence of this year, we could be in for a cracker in the forecast conditions for 2016 verify. However the caution is that although sea surface temps may be warm, there will be other factors to watch.

I the CV wave train is anywhere near as active as it was for a period this year, we could get a few robust MDR systems, provided SAL and shear are in check and that the instability levels are closer to the norm.

The takeaway from what we are witnessing with Joaquin for me is this: Never let your guard down, even in a season that appears not to be conducive for tropical cyclones. The old addage "it only takes one" seems especially true in quiet years... The US east coast dodged a bullet this time, but as Dominica, the Bahamas and maybe Bermuda (all depending) will attest, this has been a pretty rough season.
Quoting 641. NCHurricane2009:

Wait wait wait, are you serious? Joaquin is at 155 mph? What?!



may be it will help you read back a little you no whats been going on
Quoting 624. Jedkins01:



It was going through one yesterday actually, just some hurricanes aren't as dramatic about it as others. That's why Joaquin had such amazingly low pressure for a category 3. During eyewall replacement cycles, the wind field will expand and the pressure gradient loosens due to the double eyewall or shared eyewall structure. Once a single eyewall takes over, providing that atmospheric conditions are favorable, the hurricane can quickly intensify again as the pressure gradient tightens back up to respond to the lower pressures.
I thought it was only a partial yesterday.
Quoting 642. CybrTeddy:



FWIW, Joaquin is the strongest Atlantic hurricane that, as far as I can tell, to develop independently from a warm-core source.


yep and if it can hit cat 5 that would be iceing on the cake
Quoting 641. NCHurricane2009:

Wait wait wait, are you serious? Joaquin is at 155 mph? What?!
Hurry...get your blog updated. :-)
Quoting 637. Tazmanian:



no it did not it was a ULL that worked it way did the the surface that was down by PR that we been tracking a week or two a go be for it got in named


The origin of it was the Carolina coast though.
Quoting 643. LemieT:

On the evidence of this year, we could be in for a cracker in the forecast conditions for 2016 verify. However the caution is that although sea surface temps may be warm, there will be other factors to watch.

I the CV wave train is anywhere near as active as it was for a period this year, we could get a few robust MDR systems, provided SAL and shear are in check and that the instability levels are closer to the norm.

The takeaway from what we are witnessing with Joaquin for me is this: Never let your guard down, even in a season that appears not to be conducive for tropical cyclones. The old addage "it only takes one" seems especially true in quiet years... The US east coast dodged a bullet this time, but as Dominica, the Bahamas and maybe Bermuda (all depending) will attest, this has been a pretty rough season.
The season is not over yet.
Quoting 649. Hurricanes101:



The origin of it was the Carolina coast though.


whats the ch of JQ stalling and then looping back too the Carolina its all most in the same spot where it 1st started lol
Quoting 644. Tazmanian:




may be it will help you read back a little you no whats been going on

Lol, I did read those comments, and then I refreshed the NHC webpage and saw the update. I am just in amazement that Joaquin has gotten this strong. Just amazed.
Quoting 627. Jedkins01:



Yeah and just think, if steering currents were different, we could have been talking a category 4-5 hurricane in South FL during this "lame and crappy" season.
There was a comment I had made a few days ago on how the Atlantic had hit rock bottom, yeah I don't think I'm ever saying that again, lol.
It's a tough call whether Joaquin should be upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane or not. In one corner, the plane measured 144kt flight-level winds at 700mb, which supports an initial intensity of 130kt. In the other corner, the plane measured SFMR values of 137-138kt, which supports 140kt. It makes sense that they split the difference and went 135kt.

I doubt Joaquin will be able to maintain its intensity until the next recon pass at 23:30z.
Is Jaoquin currently south of the forecast track? It looks like it's moving ENE.
Quoting 652. NCHurricane2009:


Lol, I did read those comments, and then I refreshed the NHC webpage and saw the update. I am just in amazement that Joaquin has gotten this strong. Just amazed.


am amazed that we have a 155mph storm too where the E PAC has yet too have a cat 5 hurricane and you would think that the E PAC would be 1st in a strong EL nino year
Joaquin thought about hitting the northeast in the 12z UKMet run and said no..lets hope its not a trend..

Some of the ensembles runs are hinting again at this scenario..


Quoting 597. Luisport:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 10m10 minutes ago
While not quite Category 5 -- if Hurricane #Joaquin were in the Western Pacific -- it would be a Super Typhoon.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 12m12 minutes ago
Whoa -- Hurricane #Joaquin up to 135-knots based on recon -- on the edge of Category 5.
If Joaquin were in Western Pacific, it wouldn t be a super typhoon as there would be no reckon that would fly into it. It would probably end up being a cat 4 typhoon just like Dujuan, which looked more impressive than Joaquin.
Quoting 653. nrtiwlnvragn:



Stu Ostro twitted it did.

ORIGIN OF JOAQUIN

A part of a cold upper trough comes off the coast of the Carolinas on September 15 and remains trackable via the negative (cold) upper-level temperature anomalies.

I didn't realize it went all the way back to September 15 as a cold core system. However, it didn't start as a tropical low from there, which is what I thought was the question
So with Joaquin putting on a burst of intensification, would this increase rainfall in the Carolinas and nearby areas? Any thoughts?
Quoting 656. stormchaser14:

Is Jaoquin currently south of the forecast track? It looks like it's moving ENE.
Moving directly NE and appears to be right on the forecast track from what I can see here.
So as per the NHC they say 135kt SFMR winds in their special advisory however the Vortex Data Message says

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)


HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast
intensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane
just penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and
SFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is
necessary.

Quoting 661. Trouper415:

So with Joaquin putting on a burst of intensification, would this increase rainfall in the Carolinas and nearby areas? Any thoughts?
The size of the storm doesn't appear to have increased and it's moving away from the Carolinas, so it doesn't seem like the central wind speed should have any effect.
Mimic captures the intensification

Quoting 662. sar2401:

Moving directly NE and appears to be rith on the forecast track from what I can see here.
I can see maybe a tad bit south but one wobble and its right on track...
Quoting 663. Saltydogbwi1:

So as per the NHC they say 135kt SFMR winds in their special advisory however the Vortex Data Message says

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)


HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast
intensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane
just penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and
SFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is
necessary.


See TA's post #655. They usually don't adjust the speed based on the SFMR value alone.
Quoting 666. Camerooski:

I can see maybe a tad bit south but one wobble and its right on track...
Yeah, it's close enough, given the resolution we see on a map. Track prediction is usually pretty good, but it's not like the yellow line in the center of the road.
Is there already another aircraft en route to Joaquin?
Quoting 669. fabian171017:

Is there already another aircraft en route to Joaquin?


i hope so
Quoting 667. sar2401:

See TA's post #655. They usually don't adjust the speed based on the SFMR value alone.


I get that they shouldn't jump on a single reading from the SFMR to upgrade the storm but my point was they actually quoted an SFMR wind reading of 135 kt when the data says 138 kts. So I was wondering if it was a typo.
Joaquin should weaken once it gets very close to Bermuda, likely to still be a major hurricane however. Also did anyone see the 12z UKMET, Joaquin stalls east of the NJ coast and then finally turns north and makes landfall in Nova Scotia....
Current SST off St. George, Bermuda is 27.2c, or 81f. Port Nelson, on Rum Cay, in the Bahamas, is 29.4c, or 85f. The temperatures headed toward Bermuda are decreasing, but still plenty warm to support a hurricane. I hope the intensification stops at least.
Quoting 671. Saltydogbwi1:



I get that they shouldn't jump on a single reading from the SFMR to upgrade the storm but my point was they actually quoted an SFMR wind reading of 135 kt when the data says 138 kts. So I was wondering if it was a typo.
Oh, I get it now. Didn't see it in the update or your post. Maybe I need more coffee. :-)
Quoting 670. pablosyn:



i hope so
See #636.
Quoting 669. fabian171017:

Is there already another aircraft en route to Joaquin?
See #636.
Quoting 672. Camerooski:

Joaquin should weaken once it gets very close to Bermuda, likely to still be a major hurricane however. Also did anyone see the 12z UKMET, Joaquin stalls east of the NJ coast and then finally turns north and makes landfall in Nova Scotia....
no way
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...

AT 1259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE WORSENING OF ANY ONGOING FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

AREAS ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY ARE
LIKELY TO GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH 3 PM EDT. AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM. DUE TO
ALREADY VERY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AREAS STILL
FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...TO POTENTIALLY
LIFE THREATENING.

THE REGION IS ALSO NOW NEAR HIGH TIDE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MORE SEVERE FLOODING OF THE MORE LOW LYING...POORLY DRAINED AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT...GOOSE CREEK...
HANAHAN...MONCKS CORNER...MCCLELLANVILLE AND I-26/I-526 INTERCHANGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.


its still going out to sea its not going to hit the northeast guys
Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt Joaquin will be able to maintain its intensity until the next recon pass at 23:30z.
No, it probably won't. That will lead to the endless cat4/cat5 debate for the next however many years until we get another cat 5. It does make me wonder, regardless of HURDAT and all the reanalysis, how far off we may be from other historical storms before we had recon planes, and especially the number of sorties we've seen with Joaquin.
Quoting 658. ncstorm:

Joaquin thought about hitting the northeast in the 12z UKMet run and said no..lets hope its not a trend..

Some of the ensembles runs are hinting again at this scenario..




This storm has many days to go before I feel safe at saying it's gone. Many variables come into play each and everyday with the flow of weather. The majority of models had Joaquin headed west and now there east. I hope there correct and this storm misses the US and Bermuda. I will never fully trust any computer model especially more than 3 days. Conditions can change with weather as I remember with many unexpected changes in Hurricanes. Storms that were written off Andrew, Katrina and unexpected turns like Jeanne and Charley. I said my piece stay safe everyone and never let your guard down.
Quoting 678. win1gamegiantsplease:

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...

AT 1259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE WORSENING OF ANY ONGOING FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

AREAS ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY ARE
LIKELY TO GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH 3 PM EDT.
You can sure see the bullseye on the WPC map. Very similar pattern to what we saw off south Alabama and the Panhandle earlier in the week, with a constant tap back to the tropics and 10-15 inches of rain. How are things at your place?

Per Live 5 News - Folly Beach closed to non residents
Joaquin has closed off a ring of -70C convection. Given that the pressure was quickly falling when recon departed, the storm is probably peaking near or at Category 5 intensity right now.

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 1m1 minute ago
Tide level at Charleston Harbor at highest level since #Hurricane Hugo. 9th highest on record.
Quoting 676. sar2401:

See #636.


So they are flying in Joaquin right now again?
.

uploaded on youtube 03.10.2015: Hurricane Joaquin hits Long Island, Bahamas
690. JLPR2
Despite the increase of deep convection in the eyewall, the eye doesn't look cat 5 worthy at the moment.

No recon out in Joaquin right now, nor will there be any for several hours

No cat 5, I wish recon had stayed around a bit longer before while he was intensifying
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey guys, be safe... seems to be a hell of a storm.
I want to say something nice about JB, seriously. From time to time, lately, he has been calling out denialist sites for just making stuff up. Good for him. I guess the broth has been so thin for denialists lately that they feel compelled to invent chunks of meat. Anyway, it seems JB still values data over ideology. Again, good for him. But what really caught my eye was his rant against Darth Vader,... er...., I mean Rush Limbaugh, about Vader's, I mean Limbaugh's, rant accusing the NHC of politicizing hurricane forecasts. This piece of garbage is available on Limbaugh's web site. I barely skimmed it but that was more than enough to make me nauseous. JB deserves to be thanked for tearing into Limbaugh. There are two take-aways from this: the dark side is willing to kill the messenger because it doesn't like the message and JB has not completely gone over to the dark side.
Quoting 605. nash36:

So.....

I just had to broom away a fairly large snake off my back porch. He was trying to get in.


Wasn't a cottonmouth at least; they LIKE the water.

Probably some poor old rat snake or king snake? It made me think...are we going to get a vermin explosion after this, with all the predator wildlife that this Event is in the process of drowning?

Then again...rats can drown, too.
Quoting 684. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Joaquin has closed off a ring of -70C convection. Given that the pressure was quickly falling when recon departed, the storm is probably peaking near or at Category 5 intensity right now.


With that eye i don't think so.
Good day all.....and greetings from George Town, Exuma!! did not check in during Joaquin as I was still putting clips on my shed and making sure things were not going to blow too far away...I was quite amazed at how rain/dry the storm was for us. GGT did have sea water flooding cuz of the already high tides and wind blown water...but not very much rain. Irene, Sandy and now Joaquin have all been very dry /rain storms for us which was a very good thing!
I tried again to get some info from Long Island however the cell towers are down for sure....they had a few days of rain before Joaquin showed up so not good for an already saturated island. Thankfully we island folk stick together and look out for each other so I am sure folks are OK, just shell shocked...
.....and yes we do have the highest per capita income in this part of the world after US , Canada and Mexico..........but still not a RICH country by far, so please if people would like to help by all means we could use it for Rum Cay, San Salvador, Acklins/Crooked Islands, Samana Cays, Ragged Islands and Long Island..........these communities do not have very much resources as most goods come by boat. We did see a C-130 Coast Guard pass over about an hour ago headed that way........just spoke to the Bahamas Red Cross Society and they are on the ground assessing the effected areas and would be happy to receive help from whomever....ph.# (242) 323-7370 or Facebook.

Would like to thank Dr. Masters and the quick witted, intelligent weather minded bloggers for all the insight, graphs and such ..........it is very comforting to know that there are folks out there with thoughts and prayers for those of us out here!! Definitely was not a fish storm for us....unless you mean raining fish!! So thanks again for all your input and predictions............ even the dim witted folks out there that make for a good comedy relief during a very intense experience!!
Please let any would be travelers know the Exuma is fortunately and thankfully open for business and doing well. The Sandals here is 50% occupied so we don't have to wait for people to come back.........they have already called for me to take snorkelers out but the sea is still too angry.........lol.......