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Joaquin Intensifying; Potential Threat for Bahamas and U.S. Coast

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 9:08 PM GMT on September 29, 2015

Tropical Storm Joaquin is gaining strength as it moves slowly west-southwest toward the eastern Bahamas. Joaquin’s top sustained winds were upgraded from 50 to 65 mph in the 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Air Force hurricane-hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 990 millibars, a substantial drop from this morning. From aboard the aircraft, NOAA’s Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer detected surface winds on the order of 60-65 mph (see Figure 2) at around 2:00 pm EDT. Joaquin has struggled in the face of wind shear of 20-25 knots due to strong upper-level winds from the north-northwest; earlier Tuesday, the the low-level center of circulation exposed to view with all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms limited to the southeast side of the center. However, the thunderstorms maintained their vigor with the help of very warm waters and excellent outflow toward the south side of Joaquin, and on Tuesday afternoon an intense burst of thunderstorms developed atop the low-level center. With this consolidation, Joaquin has a much better chance to intensify further in the next 24 hours. Wind shear will be dropping below 20 knots by Wednesday and may dip below 15 knots for several days, lending more support to intensification. NHC now projects that Joaquin will be a hurricane by midday Wednesday.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Joaquin, collected at 1945Z (3:45 pm EDT) on Tuesday, September 29, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Joaquin near the Bahamas as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Tuesday, September 29, 2015, at approximately 10:30 am EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Surface winds (blue line) and precipitation (red line) as measured by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instrument on an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft on Tuesday, September 29, 2015, between 1:35 - 3:34 pm EDT. Surface winds peaked at about 57 knots (66 mph) at 2:13 pm, during a period when heavy rain was observed. Surface winds of 51 knots (59 mph) were observed during a period of low precipitation. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Over the next couple of days, models agree that Joaquin will continue moving slowly toward the west-southwest, which will pose an increasing threat to the eastern Bahamas. The NHC may issue watches or warnings for the Bahamas later Tuesday night. Most of the 12Z Tuesday computer models stop Joaquin in its tracks just short of the Bahamas, but the usually reliable ECMWF model suggests a greater motion toward the southwest, indicating a potential threat to some of the eastern islands. During its slow westward trek, Joaquin will be passing over ocean temperatures near 30°C (86°F)--the warmest seen there since record keeping began in 1880. Oceanic heat content--the amount of energy stored in the upper 50 meters (160 feet) of the ocean--is another index of potential strengthening. Joaquin’s track should take it across the boundary into oceanic heat content values greater than 50 kilojoules per square centimeter by Wednesday. For tropical storms and Category 1 hurricanes, values of heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm2 have been associated with more rapid intensification rates, assuming that wind shear is less than 15 knots, mid-level relative humidity is greater than 50 percent, and SSTs are at least 28.5°C. Joaquin should meet most or all of these criteria over the next couple of days, which raises the possibility of robust intensification.


Figure 4. On Tuesday, September 29, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin was located in an area of ocean with record Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 30°C (86°F). Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 5. Oceanic heat content across the Northwest Atlantic as of September 28, 2015. Values of greater than 50 kJ/cm2 are related to more rapid intensification of tropical cyclones up to Category 1 strength, assuming that other conditions are supportive (warm SSTs, moist mid-level air, and light wind shear). Image credit: NOAA/AOML.


The long-range outlook for Joaquin
The 12Z Tuesday model runs did not clarify the unusually muddy waters surrounding the future track of Joaquin. By Friday, the eastern U.S. trough should begin to influence Joaquin and give it a northward component of motion, but the exact configuration of that trough--which will be critical to Joaquin’s track beyond Day 3--is still unclear. The models continue to show huge differences from run-to-run and with each other on just how this trough will develop and interact with Joaquin. The general tendency is for this trough to take on a negative tilt (a NW-to-SE configuration), with upper-level ridging becoming stronger off New England. All else being equal, this would tend to result in a more northwesterly path for Joaquin. Complicating the forecast is the presence of several areas of disturbed weather, including the remnants of Invest 99L (now over northern Florida); Invest 90L (incorporating the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida); and a frontal zone across the Northeast that will produce torrential rain (see below). All of these systems will pump large amounts of heat into the atmosphere through condensation, and this in turn will influence how the situation evolves.


Figure 6. Two model runs, just 12 hours apart, from one of our top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the European model--showed radically different solutions over 900 miles apart for where Joaquin might be in 5 - 5.5 days. The latest model run (8 am EDT Sept 29) reverted back to a solution close to the one shown above on the left. Image credit: wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.


Figure 7. Ensemble members from the GFS model run at 12Z Tuesday, September 29, 2015, show a huge spread in where Joaquin might end up. The ensemble is produced by running the model multiple times, each time varying the starting-point conditions slightly to mimic observational uncertainty.

The model guidance from 12Z Tuesday shows two main possibilities by Days 5 and 6. The HWRF, GFDL, and UKMET models all depict a hurricane heading toward the mid-Atlantic by this weekend, tucking into the north side of the negatively tilted trough. In contrast, the ECMWF and GFS models show Joaquin heading out to the open Atlantic well before approaching the U.S. East Coast, as the trough pushes Joaquin eastward rather than pulling it into its northeast side. Various members of the ECMWF and GFS model ensembles have a wide range of solutions (see Figure 7 at right). Given the complexity of the factors involved, it is far too soon to put too much stock in any particular model solution. This is a good time to keep in mind that the width of the National Hurricane Center’s “cone of uncertainty” is based on average historical forecast errors from the last five years. In the case of Joaquin, the long-range uncertainty indicated by the models right now appears even larger than the cone’s historical database would suggest, which calls for even more caution than usual in focusing on any possible outcome. Data from the first dropsonde mission into Joaquin this afternoon by the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet should make Tuesday night's 00Z suite of computer model forecasts more reliable than the Tuesday morning runs.

Regardless: heavy rain event coming to northern Appalachians and New England
Independent of Joaquin, an unusually intense heavy-rain event will be striking the northern Appalachians and New England over the next 2-3 days. Deep tropical moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to near-record high amounts of water vapor for the location and time of year. This moisture will intercept a preexisting frontal boundary, as rain-producing impulses move along the east side of the sprawling upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is calling for widespread 3-5” rainfall from 00Z Wednesday to 00Z Friday from eastern New York across most of New England to southeastern Maine. Models are in fairly strong agreement that this heavy rain will develop, but there is some uncertainty on where the rains will be heaviest--in particular, the placement of the southwest-northeast stripe where training echoes could lead to particularly large amounts. Dry conditions have prevailed over the mid-Atlantic and New England over the last few weeks, moderate drought near the coast, so most locations could handle several inches of rain before general flooding became an issue. However, if intense rains fall in a short period over mountainous areas, some smaller creeks and streams could respond quickly and produce a localized flash flood threat. Urban areas from New York to Portland may also experience street flooding if the heaviest rains materialize there, as the drainage systems struggle to keep up. If Joaquin happens to move into New England early next week, there would be a much greater risk of widespread flooding.

Which track model should you trust?
According to the 2014 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2015, in 2014 we had two track models that at times out-performed the official NHC forecast, a feat that is tough to do. NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, while the UK Met Office's forecast did slightly better than NHC's 4-day and 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models excellent performers, but the GFDL model, a excellent performer in recent years, had substantially poorer forecasts than the other four models. The Canadian CMC model and simple BAMM model had accuracies comparable to the GFDL model. The European Center model and GFS models were virtually tied as the best performing models when averaged over the three-year period 2012 - 2014.

Wunderground has a web page with computer model forecasts for Joaquin for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page (you can use our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer to look at ECMWF forecasts, though.) Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model (not evaluated by NHC in 2013)
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
NAVGEM: The Navy's global forecast model (which replaced the defunct NOGAPS model in 2013)
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first five of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. These are the five models used to formulate the TVCA consensus model seen in Figure 8; the TVCA model was very close to the official NHC forecast in 2014.


Figure 8. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2014, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that blends together up to five of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth). Data taken from the National Hurricane Center 2014 verification report.


Figure 9. Radar image of Tropical Storm Marty taken at 2:41 pm EDT from the Acapulco radar.

Tropical Storm Marty bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Pacific coast
After a 12-hour stint overnight as a Category 1 hurricane, Tropical Storm Marty weakened to a tropical storm with top winds of 60 mph at 11 am EDT Tuesday. Radar images out of Acapulco show that Marty continues to bring heavy rain showers to the coast, and as of 8 am EDT Tuesday, the heaviest 24-hour rains along the coast were in the 3 - 3.5" range. With high wind shear of 30 knots now affecting Marty, continued weakening is likely. Marty may have made its closest approach to the coast, as steering currents are now lining up to drive Marty to the west, away from the coast, beginning on Wednesday morning. Given that Marty is a small storm that is weakening and likely to begin moving away from the coast soon, Mexico should be able to avoid widespread destructive flooding from the storm.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. MahFL
TWC is talking of a possible disaster.
What storms (if any) have hit the Outer Banks or Tidewater of Virginia coming in more from the East than the South? This seems like a really odd path. Having lived in the Tidewater, and seeing how parts of the Outer Banks are destroyed anytime theres even a minor coastal storm, this one has me worried. Both areas seem extremely susceptible to major flooding
Quoting 1498. NativeSun:

Didn't say that Sports, just with all the money we put into these models and forecasters, I think they should have a better handle on the weather and their forecast. They need to rely on their personal knowledge and not so much into what the models show.


"All the money"? If I'm not mistaken, these agencies (NOAA, NHC, NASA) are continually seeing budget cuts...Our scientific budget spending seriously lacks imho.
1504. Drakoen
Quoting 1500. Tornado6042008X:

The struggles of being a weather geek.


yup
1506. scott39
Joaquin looks to be making the turn to the W.
The surfers will be out in force on the Florida East coast this weekend..................................
The trough may very will be weak, and the high which is already expanding, may gets even stronger, which could push the storm further west...
I don't understand why there are no news reporters , reporting from the Bahamas today or tomorrow...
Quoting 1472. Camerooski:

Dr. Masters should make a new discussion page soon... This one is already on 1500 comments LOL



he will make one when he is ready too do so and not when blogers tell him to do it better get uesd this haveing a blog at 1500 + with a hurricane now this blog will be getting closer too 3000 or 4000 + commits if there no update be for the over night comes so get uesd too having a blog over 15000 commits
Quoting 1508. Camerooski:

The trough may very will be weak, and the high which is already expanding, may gets even stronger, which could push the storm further west...


Don't get ahead of yourself, let NHC make that call.
Power outages and flooding yesterday in the D.C metro area and this was only a minor event...
Link
My 2 cents this morning. If it makes it to the eastern Bahamas as slow moving as this system is, it may seem an eternity of hurricane force winds for the people of the Bahamas . Can you imagine enduring those winds for hours? My thoughts are with the Bahamians . 
Quoting 1510. Tazmanian:




he will make one when he is ready too do so and not when blogers tell him to do it better get uesd this haveing a blog at 1500 + with a hurricane now this blog will be getting closer too 3000 or 4000 + commits if there no update be for the over night comes so get uesd too having a blog over 15000 commits


A hurricane being a threat to the US at that.
1515. scott39
I would put my money on the EURO. Although, I would still prepare if I lived in the cone.
Satellite images appear to show Joaquin is starting to feel the effects of the frontal boundary...looks like the SW motion is shifting to a more westerly direction...
1519. scott39
Quoting 1494. Bucsboltsfan:



Didn't the EURO nail the Sandy forecast well in advance?
I believe it did.
Quoting 1508. Camerooski:

The trough may very will be weak, and the high which is already expanding, may gets even stronger, which could push the storm further west...


The trough is not going to be weak. Quite the opposite. That's why they are forecasting huge amounts of rain on the east coast in advance of Joaquin. The strong flow is already evident to those who look.

Joaquin is trending at number 2nd world wide on twitter.
Good Morning......will this would be a fun day on here for many! LOL
I would not rule out the EURO....but when its the LONE RANGER......it probably won't be correct!
Here is the current upper level environment around the storm; pretty clear sailing TUTT wise in the short-term as Joaquin starts to inch towards the West and then further North..............Great environment for intensification if shear remains moderate to low and it does a good job of fighting off the dry air:

1525. SLU
At 1200 UTC, 30 September 2015, HURRICANE JOAQUIN (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24.8°N and 72.3°W. The current intensity was 70 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 220 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb.
1526. ncstorm
As noted yesterday the rain amounts even if Joaquin (Euro) went out to sea would still be large..

the mid atlantic would still see serious concerns of flooding on top of the previous rains most areas have seen..

You can't root for the Euro scenario either..just a bad situation either way..
Quoting 1503. StormJunkie:



"All the money"? If I'm not mistaken, these agencies (NOAA, NHC, NASA) are continually seeing budget cuts...Our scientific budget spending seriously lacks imho.
Their still getting millions and millions of dollars every year. Just depends on how they spend it.
Quoting 1502. CarolinaHurricanes87:

What storms (if any) have hit the Outer Banks or Tidewater of Virginia coming in more from the East than the South? This seems like a really odd path. Having lived in the Tidewater, and seeing how parts of the Outer Banks are destroyed anytime theres even a minor coastal storm, this one has me worried. Both areas seem extremely susceptible to major flooding


I've lived in Chesapeake/Virginia Beach since 1984, except from 1999-2003 when I was at Virginia Tech. Lots of storms have come from the south. Isabel being the "big one" for us. North Carolina usually takes the brunt of the storms as it sticks out into the Atlantic, usually weakening storms before they get to VA. Storms coming from the East? Rare. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
1530. Michfan
Well this is going to be a fun week tracking this. What a mess.
1531. gator23
Quoting 1444. Camerooski:

And thats why we should not be saying that their is no chance of Joaquin hitting FL, theres always a chance... Joaquin has made the unthinkable, thinkable, so who's to tell him to stop moving west...?

Science.
Quoting 1529. tornadodude:




i wouder how close this storm will get too FL be for the storm starts going up the E coast still moveing W
Quoting 1529. tornadodude:





all so a eye looks too open up vary soon
Quoting 1529. tornadodude:


Joaquin has a nice blow up of thunderstorms near the center which is indicative of a intensifying hurricane.I just hope everyone in the Bahamas are prepared for what could be a deepening major over them.
Quoting 1502. CarolinaHurricanes87:

What storms (if any) have hit the Outer Banks or Tidewater of Virginia coming in more from the East than the South? This seems like a really odd path. Having lived in the Tidewater, and seeing how parts of the Outer Banks are destroyed anytime theres even a minor coastal storm, this one has me worried. Both areas seem extremely susceptible to major flooding


I just wonder how people can even live on the banks with hurricanes and nor'easters wrecking their houses every other year
It's moving more south than west now with a 220 heading. Sheesh!
Quoting 1527. NativeSun:

Their still getting millions and millions of dollars every year. Just depends on how they spend it.


It's not enough. The sciences should be one of our top spending priorities, not targets for continual cuts. It's saddening how much we don't know because some politicians think we can't afford to look.
Quoting 1528. AlwaysAHokie:



I've lived in Chesapeake/Virginia Beach since 1984, except from 1999-2003 when I was at Virginia Tech. Lots of storms have come from the south. Isabel being the "big one" for us. North Carolina usually takes the brunt of the storms as it sticks out into the Atlantic, usually weakening storms before they get to VA. Storms coming from the East? Rare. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Go Hokies!! Yeah, I can't remember one coming from the SE. Worried it will push a crazy amount of water into the Bay and create catastrophic coastal flooding, to go along with all the inland flooding expected from rain.
Quoting 1527. NativeSun:

Their still getting millions and millions of dollars every year. Just depends on how they spend it.


Less than 1% of the budget. For what they are able to accomplish, I think they have clearly shown they spend it very efficiently. This does not mean that don't need, and shouldn't get better funding.
What happens when a hurricane creates its own environment?
Quoting 1536. FunnelVortex:



I just wonder how people can even live on the banks with hurricanes and nor'easters wrecking their houses every other year


They shouldn't be IMO. Eventually there'll be one big and bad enough to convince them not to rebuild. Hope this isn't the one...
Quoting 1537. ElConando:

It's moving more south than west now with a 220 heading. Sheesh!
Dvorak appears to show it halting its south direction in the last few frames...
Quoting 1532. Tazmanian:



i wouder how close this storm will get too FL be for the storm starts going up the E coast still moveing W
Still moving WSW, all depends on how strong the trough is comapred to the High to the north. If the high is stronger (further west), if trough is (further east and north)
1545. MahFL
Quoting 1509. MeteorologistTV:

I don't understand why there are no news reporters , reporting from the Bahamas today or tomorrow...


JQ is not going to make landfall in the Bahamas, also the Bahamas are not American territory.
Joaquin I think is developing an eye, which indicates a intensifying Hurricane like previous mentions. I just hope people from Mid-Atlantic are making preparations just in case this storm does make a perpendicular strike on the East Coast. Dear Bloggers, the SSTs are very warm and shear is slackening at least short term, this thing can dial up CAT 4 potentially. I am sure everyone remembers Hurricane Charley - 2004
Quoting 1536. FunnelVortex:



I just wonder how people can even live on the banks with hurricanes and nor'eastes wrecking their houses every other year


My friends have a place in OBX, right literally on the beach. It's a bit of a challenge, but also rewarding as well. Beautiful area, we get to go a couple times a year. Really stressing this storm and trying to throw all the mental hate and anguish I can at it hoping to force it out to sea. (I don't expect that to make a difference however.)

Let's hope it misses.
Quoting 1541. SecretStormNerd:

What happens when a hurricane creates its own environment?
bad things...
Quoting 1541. SecretStormNerd:

What happens when a hurricane creates its own environment?


It moves it's wife and children in, then buys a puppy.
has the storm gets closer too FL i think at lest TROPICAL STORM Watch will be needed at some point today for TROPICAL storm force winds has the storm starts it turn up the E cost this storm is getting closer and closer too S FL going too be a close call
I bring bad luck everywhere I go.I visited N.Y.C in 2011 they later get a hurricane,I visit the Bahamas two weeks ago now they have a hurricane these are just a few examples.
Quoting 1545. MahFL:



JQ is not going to make landfall in the Bahamas, also the Bahamas are not American territory.
It is 100% making landfall in the Bahamas...
Quoting 1543. SoFLRoofguy:

Dvorak appears to show it halting its south direction in the last few frames...


Watch out Puerto Rico!
Quoting 1542. CarolinaHurricanes87:



They shouldn't be IMO. Eventually there'll be one big and bad enough to convince them not to rebuild. Hope this isn't the one...


I don't think people should be allowed to live out there. I know it makes me sound bad saying this, but it's for the better. They are natural storm barriers and even a mere nor'easter can cause destruction.

But convincing thousands of people to leave their homes is probably never going to happen. Imagine the backlash, scandals, media circus, etc. It would be pure chaos.

We have to live with the fact people put themselves in the danger zone.
1555. fmbill
Hot towers?

Quoting 1552. Camerooski:

It is 100% making landfall in the Bahamas...


And 100% not making landfall in Florida.


Game of eye spy, anyone?
1559. bwi
Here's my two cents. At this case we have low- to medium probability of a high impact event on the east coast, particularly it seems for the mid-atlantic coast from VA to NYC. The main threats are storm surge in the Chesapeake, Potomac, Delaware bays, and NYC area, fresh water flooding, and winds high enough to bring down lots of trees and possibly even electric and light poles. I'd say the probability is better than 50-50 that hurricane-impact storm will affect the coast somewhere, but too soon to know where exactly.

This is a time for boat owners, coastal residents, and emergency managers and power companies to go on full prep mode, but it's way too soon for ordinary people to do much more than make sure the gas tank is full, get some cash at the ATM, clean the gutters, check the generator, if you have one etc.

I'm hoping Dr. Master's next update is sufficiently detailed in the possible scenarios that emergency managers can start prepping for flooding in low spots on roads, rails and subways, and power stations. If the 12z models are still leaning toward a mid-atlantic coast impact, I'm hoping the next update will also alert power companies to go into prep and recovery mode, including starting to arrange for crews from out of area to come help out. I realize it could be a false alarm, but hopeful the next round of NHC and WU notices are sufficiently alerting that at least the property owners most at risk can start prepping early and the public officials who run our subways and fix the power lines go into high alert mode.

It's definitely a problem over-hyping possible storms, but in this case with a decent chance of a high impact event, probably better to start at least making sure the public officials are on proper notice and the property owners in vulnerable areas have time to shore up.

Lots of warm water off the coast, so the old idea that hurricanes always recurve right out to sea or weaken a lot before they get to the mid-atlantic is not necessarily going to happen this time. It's a new atmosphere and uncustomary things could happen.
1560. Michfan
Quoting 1541. SecretStormNerd:

What happens when a hurricane creates its own environment?


Basically a lot of the rules go out the window. We have seen some storms go against conventional wisdom, but keep in mind this is very rare. When a storm can moisten its own environment, it is very resistant to changes in the atmosphere that can affect its intensity and track. The storm is able to wall off the changes from penetrating into its core. Eventually the atmosphere wins out, this only delays the inevitable.
Quoting 1550. Tazmanian:

has the storm gets closer too FL i think at lest TROPICAL STORM Watch will be needed at some point today for TROPICAL storm force winds has the storm starts it turn up the E cost this storm is getting closer and closer too S FL going too be a close call
I agree the High is stronger than the trough TWC already mentioned this, plus the hurricane watches extend all the way to the Western Bahamas. I expect a TS watch, depending on whether it gets really close they may issue a TS warning.
all so thursday TROPICAL STORM Watch or hurricane watch will be needed for up the E coast
Quoting 1557. WeatherMSK:



And 100% not making landfall in Florida.
Its not likely but it should not be ruled out... Thats all I'm saying 3 days ago the NHC said the storm wouldn't reach TS status. Now models are all on agreement of a Cat 2 hurricane at least...
Quoting 1558. Articuno:



Game of eye spy, anyone?
i am starting to see a eye here
1565. fmbill
Quoting 1561. Camerooski:

I agree the High is stronger than the trough TWC already mentioned this, plus the hurricane watches extend all the way to the Western Bahamas. I expect a TS watch, depending on whether it gets really close they may issue a TS warning.



all so this storm looks really close too FL right now if the storm dos not start up the E coast soon we could have a strong hurricane hiting FL
Igor is a prime example of a storm that created its own environment
The complacency of most people never sees to amazes me. We have a strengthening hurricane with conditions that can make him even stronger. People just grab some extra water and batteries if your near the cone. As far as anything else right now trust your instincts and the NHC.
1569. 62901IL
Quoting 1458. Drakoen:

The eye is closed as opposed to open in the previous pass and the flight level winds have increased by 15mph. Only a matter of time before that gets reflected at the surface.


JANEWAY: Mr. Paris, bring us around for another pass.
Quoting 1498. NativeSun:

Didn't say that Sports, just with all the money we put into these models and forecasters, I think they should have a better handle on the weather and their forecast. They need to rely on their personal knowledge and not so much into what the models show.

Explain how, weather will always be difficult to forecast, ask yourself this can anyone without the tools the NHC has do a better job? Avila relies on his knowledge and injects it often in his forecast discussions, you contradicted yourself you say personal knowledge and then say not so much on models where do you think the forecasters put together their forecast from? They use weather balloons, Recon, buoys, ships data, weather observers and try to make a forecast on that they are not Gods, there is no clear cut solution, there is no magic 8 ball. Models are redesigned and upgraded often. Did you think you Joaquin was going to move SW? The models showed that and noted by the NHC. I just don't get your reasoning at all.
1571. Michfan
As most of the regulars here know, nothing is ever 100%. Do not ever count anything from these storms out until they have either dissipated or run their course. I think Karen's remnants are still out there somewhere.
1572. fmbill
Quoting 1566. Tazmanian:




all so this storm looks really close too FL right now if the storm dos not start up the E coast soon we could have a strong hurricane hiting FL
not likely but possible, and it scares me how everyone is discounting this. The stores would be packed and we wouldn't have any time to prepare...
"Joaquin has the potential to be a very significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Heavy rain will be the first threat to the region on Thursday and Friday. The latest guidance from the National Weather Service includes an enormous swath of rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches over the coming week, with as much as 10 inches falling on the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware coasts."
Link
1575. fmbill
What's with the 06z UKMET?????

Quoting 1573. Camerooski:

not likely but possible, and it scares me how everyone is discounting this. The stores would be packed and we wouldn't have any time to prepare...



what ever that is forcast too pick up this storm and send it up too the E coast looks vary week and i this see the tail end of it on what is forcast too pick this up so am not seeing that happen
1577. Drakoen
There hasn't been a recon report in a while, are they done?



some modeles have the hurricane going out to sea then is more back to land some modeles having hurricane hitting new york city
Quoting 1575. fmbill:

What's with the 06z UKMET?????


A storm like that cannot move at a 90 degree angle north, it won't make a turn like that
.
Quoting 1576. Tazmanian:




what ever that is forcast too pick up this storm and send it up too the E coast looks vary week and i this see the tail end of it on what is forcast too pick this up so am not seeing that happen
I think a storm contining west hitting FL would be worst case scenario becuase no one is prepared right now, all the mets are saying its hitting NC and VA
Quoting 1574. washingtonian115:

"Joaquin has the potential to be a very significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Heavy rain will be the first threat to the region on Thursday and Friday. The latest guidance from the National Weather Service includes an enormous swath of rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches over the coming week, with as much as 10 inches falling on the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware coasts."
Link



there's a storm coming
Quoting 1579. Austin72893:

Some people on here are not the brightest I swear it's still move sw the trough is over Georgia and the panhandle and not moving fast this storm can and will get so much closer to Florida than forecasted just watch than everyone won't say anything
I 100% agree, and TWC is only talking about the Mid-ATL and NE
1585. ncstorm
Quoting 1579. Austin72893:

Some people on here are not the brightest I swear it's still move sw the trough is over Georgia and the panhandle and not moving fast this storm can and will get so much closer to Florida than forecasted just watch than everyone won't say anything


Punctuation is your friend.
Quoting 1582. Camerooski:

I think a storm contining west hitting FL would be worst case scenario becuase no one is prepared right now, all the mets are saying its hitting NC and VA


It's not going to hit Florida mate, unless it can somehow defy the laws of physics.
Quoting 1580. Camerooski:

A storm like that cannot move at a 90 degree angle north, it won't make a turn like that
I've seen storm's do loop to loops within itself travel west nw n ne e se s sw then w again all within a 12 too 24 hr period
Quoting 1580. Camerooski:

A storm like that cannot move at a 90 degree angle north, it won't make a turn like that


That is true only if it is continually moving. What will happen is a slow in speed to near stop and then
the turn.

Quoting 1577. Drakoen:

There hasn't been a recon report in a while, are they done?


Still in progress. Gonna be a while before theres another surface pass.
Quoting 1579. Austin72893:

Some people on here are not the brightest I swear it's still move sw the trough is over Georgia and the panhandle and not moving fast this storm can and will get so much closer to Florida than forecasted just watch than everyone won't say anything
So I guess the NHC is stupid then?
Quoting 1579. Austin72893:

Some people on here are not the brightest I swear it's still move sw the trough is over Georgia and the panhandle and not moving fast this storm can and will get so much closer to Florida than forecasted just watch than everyone won't say anything


Believe it when I see it.
Quoting 1582. Camerooski:

I think a storm contining west hitting FL would be worst case scenario becuase no one is prepared right now, all the mets are saying its hitting NC and VA



well am not seeing that trough picking this storm up and heading that way that trough is this too weak and the olny thing i see is the tail end of that weak trough i think it has a vary good ch of hiting FL if it dos not start that turn up the E cost today
1594. Drakoen
Quoting 1581. Tazmanian:




i think they been done for hrs lol a bit slow


I don't keep up much with RECON other than when it's happening but I thought they would have completed the box pattern before leaving.
Not much in discussions about 99L remnant's possible affects on Joaquin
Quoting 1593. Tazmanian:




well am not seeing that trough picking this storm up and heading that way that trough is this too weak and the olny thing i see is the tail end of that weak trough i think it has a vary good ch of hiting FL if it dos not start that turn up the E cost today
the best thing to do its watch the hurricane!!
The worst effects for Florida from Joaquin if it becomes a major is rip currents and beach erosion. Maybe some gusty winds near the beach up to 20 to 30 mph, but that's. The main concern should be the Bahamas and interests north of Georgia.
1599. fmbill
Quoting 1576. Tazmanian:




what ever that is forcast too pick up this storm and send it up too the E coast looks vary week and i this see the tail end of it on what is forcast too pick this up so am not seeing that happen


I noticed earlier that the frontal boundary that is supposed to pass into south Florida is now forecast to stall north of there.

Quoting 1566. Tazmanian:




all so this storm looks really close too FL right now if the storm dos not start up the E coast soon we could have a strong hurricane hiting FL
Very highly unlikely. Miami NWS forecast discussion even mentioned that S FL residents would be alarmed by seeing a strong hurricane so close but to not worry about it in spite of appearances. They would not say that unless a Florida strike were extremely unlikely and it is, given the atmospheric conditions. If Joaquin were moving due north right now but at the exact same current position, you would not even consider it a remote threat to Florida.
Quoting 1593. Tazmanian:




well am not seeing that trough picking this storm up and heading that way that trough is this too weak and the olny thing i see is the tail end of that weak trough i think it has a vary good ch of hiting FL if it dos not start that turn up the E cost today


I'm curious as to the data you're using to back up this assertion. Apparently you have access to data the best models don't. I like being fully informed and humbly request you share this data if you please.
Quoting 1590. Stormchaser2007:



Still in progress. Gonna be a while before theres another surface pass.

No they're done, the last "Recco" report said that was it for this mission. Not sure when the next one is, you'd figure they'll be going to almost continuous surveillance soon.
Quoting 1595. Skyepony:

Not much in discussions about 99L remnant's possible affects on Joaquin



this is perfect example that trough has 99l right next to it Jaquan isn't even close to the trough and won't be for days and days that trough is barely moving Florida is going to be caught so off guard
Warm spot showing up now...



Folks explain to me how this apparently is going to miss the northward turn? I don't see it, and 100% trust the current model outputs and NHC general track.
1606. ncstorm
The Mid-Atlantic, also called Middle Atlantic states or the Mid-Atlantic states, form a region of the United States of America generally located between New England and the South Atlantic States. Its exact definition differs upon source, but the region often includes New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C., Virginia, and West Virginia. When discussing climate, Connecticut (especially southern Connecticut) is often included with the Mid-Atlantic region.

1607. Michfan
Quoting 1577. Drakoen:

There hasn't been a recon report in a while, are they done?


Yes
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z

Next flight late afternoon/evening
E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z
Everyone saying this is impossible to hit Florida is just inexperienced and has not been paying attention all year to the models ha I got nothing else to say I'll sit back and see what this storm does and for those who agree with me we can crack a cold one when we're right
Quoting 1600. FLWaterFront:

Very highly unlikely. Miami NWS forecast discussion even mentioned that S FL residents would be alarmed by seeing a strong hurricane so close but to not worry about it in spite of appearances. They would not say that unless a Florida strike were extremely unlikely and it is, given the atmospheric conditions. If Joaquin were moving due north right now but at the exact same current position, you would not even consider it a remote threat to Florida.



FL is by no means off the hock with this storm the closer this storm moves W too FL the higher and higher the ch will be for a FL hit even if it dos not make a full land fall in FL and why it starts it turn up the E coast FL could see vary hvy rains and hurricane force winds has this storm gos up the E coast the more W it gos the higher and higher the ch are that FL will see at lest hurricane forace winds and vary hvy rains
Quoting 1579. Austin72893:

Some people on here are not the brightest I swear it's still move sw the trough is over Georgia and the panhandle and not moving fast this storm can and will get so much closer to Florida than forecasted just watch than everyone won't say anything


First, someone who fails to use punctuation should not be claiming others are not bright. Second, the storm is following the NHC forecast.
1612. ncstorm
Is school out today in Florida?
1613. Drakoen
Quoting 1608. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z

Next flight late afternoon/evening
E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z


Would have been nice to get another pass to see if that westerly motion that appears to be occurring on satellite is actually happening.


do it see a eye here!
90L now given a 70 percent chance of forming in 3-5 days, the ECMWF sticking to its guns on the out to sea solution for JQ, the 12z will be interesting as this track is what is keeping the NHC from pushing the one further west than they already have.
Quoting 1595. Skyepony:

Not much in discussions about 99L remnant's possible affects on Joaquin

Possible effects? None,Nada.
Quoting 1612. ncstorm:

Is school out today in Florida?


why yes it is its a snow day cant you see the snow falling in FL when looking out your window in joy the snow
1618. Mikla
For those that think this is going to hit FL, please explain why. Right now:
- Steering layer will push it NNE
- The trough is plenty strong to pull it N or NNE
- Cutoff Low to the West of the storm

Just don't see it impacting FL at all.... IMHO
No.. School is still going in Florida.
1621. aquak9
Quoting 1609. Austin72893:

Everyone saying this is impossible to hit Florida is just inexperienced and has not been paying attention all year to the models ha I got nothing else to say I'll sit back and see what this storm does and for those who agree with me we can crack a cold one when we're right
bless his little heart....
Quoting 1599. fmbill:



I noticed earlier that the frontal boundary that is supposed to pass into south Florida is now forecast to stall north of there.


the entire setup on eastern seaboard of north America from western newfoundland too fla is to stall or go quasi stationary for the next day or so and slowly ride up the coast or just inland from it pulling cyclone to the s on a sw by nw too n pull as it lifts out northward ever so slowly over the next 5 days
1623. will45
Quoting 1612. ncstorm:

Is school out today in Florida?



100 pluses
I will buy a bottle of champagne and toast to NHC when their short-term track verifies (no Florida landfall)........................
Quoting 1608. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z

Next flight late afternoon/evening
E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z


Yep scheduled to take off at 3:30pm Edt.
How I would love to be in the NE Bahamas ....
Quoting 1611. Hurricanes101:



First, someone who fails to use punctuation should not be claiming others are not bright. Second, the storm is following the NHC forecast.

Because that so has to do with weather oh and how many times has the nhc been wrong this year no the only reason they are right with the track now is cause they adjust it every update 😂😂😂 people are starting to realize this might not be picked up by the trough as expected than this blog will go even more crazy when florida is in the cone it never comes when Florida isn't in the cone it comes
This could be very bad for the Bahamas...
1629. JRRP
1631. 900MB
Eye clearing...
1632. IDTH
Quoting 1609. Austin72893:

Everyone saying this is impossible to hit Florida is just inexperienced and has not been paying attention all year to the models ha I got nothing else to say I'll sit back and see what this storm does and for those who agree with me we can crack a cold one when we're right

Okay normally I'm not one to do this but please look at the steering charts. The models screwed up with Ericka and only a few people looked at the steering charts which showed a strong ridge which took it westward, there is a clear weakness to the north that a strong storm would easily follow. So unless the ridge builds in 2005 style I don't see this hitting Florida.
Quoting 1612. ncstorm:

Is school out today in Florida?
Yes.Maybe later the governor will declare a state of emergency.All the Fla. coast will be on a mandatory evacuation.
Quoting 1609. Austin72893:

Everyone saying this is impossible to hit Florida is just inexperienced and has not been paying attention all year to the models ha I got nothing else to say I'll sit back and see what this storm does and for those who agree with me we can crack a cold one when we're right


-_- someone with 72893 in their username speaking about "inexperience" -_-
I've learned over the years here that anything within, oh about 2,000 miles of Florida = Florida doom. Kinda like the 2012 apocalypse thing, just the tropical blog version.
As long as Joaquin continues to produce hot towers and strong thunderstorms near the center then the hurricane will only continue to intensify.The hurricane's wind have not caught up to the pressure but to see a 17 millibar drop since last night is rather significant in its own right.
Quoting 1632. IDTH:


Okay normally I'm not one to do this but please look at the steering charts. The models screwed up with Ericka and only a few people looked at the steering charts which showed a strong ridge which took it westward, there is a clear weakness to the north that a strong storm would easily follow. So unless the ridge builds in 2005 style I don't see this hitting Florida.

I totally understand that it's just way to close to say no possible way this could hit Florida they have been wrong on every single storm this year every one and if they screwed up on this one wow would the nhc take a lot of heat I got nothing left to say we'll sit back and watch and see
maybe time to take a little chillax now getting kinda tense no
Quoting 1529. tornadodude:




So well oraginzed, lol unlike Erika .... I can't understand why the news said Erika was a hurricane when it hit Dominica.
Quoting 1610. Tazmanian:




FL is by no means off the hock with this storm the closer this storm moves W too FL the higher and higher the ch will be for a FL hit even if it dos not make a full land fall in FL and why it starts it turn up the E coast FL could see vary hvy rains and hurricane force winds has this storm gos up the E coast the more W it gos the higher and higher the ch are that FL will see at lest hurricane forace winds and vary hvy rains
So then, there must be at least *one* computer forecast model which shows a Florida hit, or even a close pass, right? If not then please explain how all of the high tech forecasting tools available today and the National Hurricane Center itself are *all* completely failing see what you're seeing.
nrt ya got a typo there I think
1646. aquak9
Because that so has to do with weather (punctuation)

WHY waste the time and effort to attempt to communicate with others, if you have no desire to communicate effectively? Those of us who actually USE punctuation look at you simply as a silly fly, buzzing around.
Quoting 1624. weathermanwannabe:

I will buy a bottle of champagne and toast to NHC when their short-term track verifies (no Florida landfall)........................
Joaquin's motion has bottomed out & has started WNW motion...Florida should be fine...people need to chill...I agree the NHC track is fine...
Quoting 1627. Austin72893:


Because that so has to do with weather oh and how many times has the nhc been wrong this year no the only reason they are right with the track now is cause they adjust it every update 😂😂😂 people are starting to realize this might not be picked up by the trough as expected than this blog will go even more crazy when florida is in the cone it never comes when Florida isn't in the cone it comes


Well it does have everything to do with how intelligent beings communicate with each other. How can you expect anybody to take you seriously if you don't even take your own writing seriously?
Quoting 1645. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nrt ya got a typo there I think


Thanks!
Quoting 1646. aquak9:

Because that so has to do with weather (punctuation)

WHY waste the time and effort to attempt to communicate with others, if you have no desire to communicate effectively? Those of us who actually USE punctuation look at you simply as a silly fly, buzzing around.
buzz buzz buzz
Quoting 1631. 900MB:

Eye clearing...
maybe lets see what happrn in a few hours
1652. GatorWX
1641,

Ba-bye.
1653. 900MB
Quoting 1647. SoFLRoofguy:

Joaquin's motion has bottomed out & has started WNW motion...Florida should be fine...people need to chill...I agree the NHC track is fine...


I agree. Florida wishcasters should throw in the towel.
This CIMMS chart with the upper level wind patterns (as of earlier) explains why Juaquin has that lopsided look in the NW Quad from the shear affecting that region of the circulation-outflow:

Quoting 1641. Austin72893:


I've been following weather since 3 so yes please tell me how unexpeircenced I am due to a username wow this blog can be stupid I'm out yall


Deuces. Come back when Joaquin hits Florida and tell us how the "expeircence" was.
While everyone is talking about Joaquin,
There is a purple spot in the Mediterranean Sea again:


What are the chances of this forming into a Medicane?
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.
Was the southeast motion between 5 and 8 am significant?
Does the recon data and the improved satellite appearance support an upgrade to 75 kts already?
we have a new updare soon at 11am on this hurricane
1663. fmbill
Quoting 1595. Skyepony:

Not much in discussions about 99L remnant's possible affects on Joaquin



Multiple models were making it a definite player in how all these lows move around. It's crazy but within the next few days, they were showing there could be as many as four lows moving around each other.
1664. will45
Quoting 1660. fabian171017:

Does the recon data and the improved satellite appearance support an upgrade to 75 kts already?



will know in about 10 minutes or less
I think Joaquin will become a major by tomorrow morning given its current rate of intensification.



Hopefully it won't affect the Bahamas too much and go out to sea (missing Bermuda) after that.
1667. ncstorm
Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 36s36 seconds ago

Track errors have been high with #Joaquin so far. UKMET/GFDL doing best so far.
Something else to consider in the long-term as the storm starts approaching the NE US and the polar jet starts to move out into the North Atlantic:




modeles hitting NC
1670. Patrap
NCSTORM great point with geography. A lot of Florida bloggers are predicting a Landfalling Hurricane. I dont think they want to see that because this storm is very dangerous and is strengthening by the minute. If u have property or kids/ family well it would be panic time if this was going to hit. I still believe this trough will push it North towards the Mid-Atlantic like NCSTORM mentioned below geographically. I understand it would be fun scientifically and from a weather enthusiast stand point because being a MET student I feel this too. But we have to be aware of the public sentiment here. I learned my lesson here when I used to be excited about potential landfalling TCs. But lets remember the total population too. Blessings and prayers to all who would be affected by this
Quoting 1509. MeteorologistTV:

I don't understand why there are no news reporters , reporting from the Bahamas today or tomorrow...

Where's Jim Cantore???
Quoting 1600. FLWaterFront:

Very highly unlikely. Miami NWS forecast discussion even mentioned that S FL residents would be alarmed by seeing a strong hurricane so close but to not worry about it in spite of appearances. They would not say that unless a Florida strike were extremely unlikely and it is, given the atmospheric conditions. If Joaquin were moving due north right now but at the exact same current position, you would not even consider it a remote threat to Florida.


I have friends on Long Island in the Bahamas. That's a much tougher call although most models keep the storm to their north and they are in the left front quadrant of a slow moving storm.
80 mph.
1675. Patrap
11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.7°N 72.6°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Winds up to 80mph on new advisory
1677. Patrap
Quoting 1672. Chicklit:


Where's Jim Cantore???


His father passed away Sunday.
Hurricane JOAQUIN
1:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.7°N 72.6°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
NHC is now predicting a major hurricane in 72 hours.
Quoting 1529. tornadodude:



wow
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 72.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 72.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion
toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue
through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The center
of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions could reach the northwestern Bahamas
early on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
over much of the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday
night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the
southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches
expected over the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
1682. Patrap
Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 72.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 72.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion
toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue
through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The center
of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions could reach the northwestern Bahamas
early on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
over much of the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday
night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the
southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches
expected over the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Here's a piece of the forecast disco from Raleigh NWS.
...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN DEPICTING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER... WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OWING TO
THE MID LEVEL CUTTING OFF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SUPPLIED
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM VARIOUS SOURCES... SOME OF WHICH INCLUDE
TROPICAL CONNECTIONS. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLE ITSELF GETS PULLED
WESTWARD PER SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION... THIS WOULD SIMPLY COMPOUND AN ALREADY POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS FLOODING THREAT THAT WOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING INLAND.

ONE OF THE MAJOR CONCERNS IS THAT THE MID/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH
AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST FROM TN INTO GA/SC IT WOULD BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THAT PART OF THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN...
BUT CERTAINLY A VALID CONCERN AS THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE THE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOWER
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO PRODUCE A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND VERY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO NC AIDING THE MOISTURE
FLUX AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT WOULD RIDE UP AND OVER THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY.
It is easy to become overly focused on Joaquin and where landfall may occur while missing the threat of severe flooding that is likely to occur over a large area affecting millions of people. More die in flooding than in any other natural disaster.

Nothing new here. NHC had Joaquin moving SW until tomorrow. They also expected to see a Cat 2 before long.
It's now an 80MPH storm.
1686. barbamz
Quoting 1657. Bobbyweather:

What are the chances of this forming into a Medicane?

Very possible (did a post this morning #1137; more in the comment section of my blog).
Sardinia ("code red") is already shut down (schools and public accomodations) due to the imminent threat of catastrophic rains.
Latest UKMET phase diagram:

Given the fact that the storm is impacting the Bahamas at the moment; this is the most important part of the current advisory..................The Bahamians are hurricane savvy and fair very well.

God Bless them and hope they are rushing to protect their homes and property from this rather unexpected intensification event:


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions could reach the northwestern Bahamas
early on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.


RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
over much of the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday
night.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the
southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches
expected over the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
new track has a hurricane land fall


Hurricane JOAQUIN
11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.7°N 72.6°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Wow the "inexperienced" ppl are coming from all over the place today!

A florida hit would be fun but I think it's going to look bad for the northeast. It looks really tightly wound up and major popcorn convection near the about to be eye
1691. 900MB
Cape May?

Compared to the 12 hour forecast point at 11 p.m. last night Joaquin is 0.2 degree further west and 0.8 degree further south.
Quoting 1542. CarolinaHurricanes87:



They shouldn't be IMO. Eventually there'll be one big and bad enough to convince them not to rebuild. Hope this isn't the one...


Nothing seems to stop them. They just had a Nor'easter that damaged the main highway again and people are beginning to move their houses from the sea side but the State and Feds keep rebuilding the road and bridges almost every year. At some point, this must stop.
1694. ncstorm
The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the non-ECMWF guidance.
Quoting 1685. FunnelVortex:

It's now an 80MPH storm.
Everybody know's that.
1697. Patrap
Quoting 1677. Patrap:



His father passed away Sunday.

Last Sunday or 5 weeks ago?

He's been posting on Twitter Today. Eying up all the potential rain along the coast.
Thank goodness we have the NWS to give us the information we need to keep safe and to prepare when needed.
If all we had to go by was this blog people would be evacuating Florida everytime we had a Pacific or Atlantic storm as all storms go to Florida LOL
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

Link
From Discussion, Link
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

looks like DC needs too watch this vary close with this commit am now in full lurk mode this is my last commit
Quoting 1688. Tazmanian:

new track has a hurricane land fall





Good thing I am getting married on 10/11!
Quoting 1694. ncstorm:

The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the non-ECMWF guidance.


Now that WPS 9-10" from Delmarva-Cape Cod and beyond verifies.
1705. Mikla
I love the Key Messages idea. They should do that with every discussion.
Quoting 1679. Bobbyweather:

NHC is now predicting a major hurricane in 72 hours.


Not sure it takes that long....
1707. ncstorm
In case you forgot..

the HWRF has a pressure of 922 for Joaquin..

"The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic
surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special
rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce
the spread of the guidance."

Well, the models won't be lacking for data.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH


WOW I SEE 115 MPH HURRICANE
1710. hydrus
Quoting 1680. Chicklit:


wow
Absolutely
1711. 900MB
Quoting 1706. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Not sure it takes that long....


They have been behind in the intensity for the past couple days...
1712. Drakoen
The only reason the "track forecast late in the period remains low" is because of the ECMWF. The rest of the guidance is fairly well clustered.
Dropping in real quick with this loop. The eye is becoming apparent on visible.

I'll be back late-tonight.

1714. 900MB
Quoting 1705. Mikla:

I love the Key Messages idea. They should do that with every discussion.


Reading between the lines, they seemed a little concerned that the hurricane could sprint up the coast ahead of schedule.
Chris Christie...looks like you might need to forget about the campaigning and get out that "stronger than the storm" mixtape vol. 2.

But seriously...I am really worried about NC, VA, MD, PA, NJ, NY and MA...
Quoting 1707. ncstorm:

In case you forgot..

the HWRF has a pressure of 922 for Joaquin..



If the HWRF is correct at 922mb Holy Crap. As NOTHING is out of the realm of Possibility at least within physics. I mean 80 degree SSTs go close to the DELMARVA Peninsula. N Carolina on North PLEASE get prepared for this!
Meanwhile the weather remains extremely boring for late september here.

Pretty frightening if you are in the Bahamas right now seeing this bearing down on you:

1719. ncstorm
Let me say this..

IF this thing does decide to make landfall somewhere, please leave!

Do not try to ride this out..Do not be one of those people on TV watching the surf come in..Do not tell local law enforcement you have to protect your property..Do not chase this storm..

Dont be a statistic after this is said and done but instead use common sense and heed the warnings if you are under the gun..
1720. hydrus
Is it just me, or does JQ's forecast appear to be sliding W and S on each update. Granted, I live in Wilmington, NC and have family in Morehead City, NC, thus I may just be paranoid...

Also, with most of the models pointing towards landfall in NC/VA, why is the forecast pointing to NJ?
Quoting 1679. Bobbyweather:

NHC is now predicting a major hurricane in 72 hours.
anytime after 36 hrs from now
What I find disturbing is the outflow to the west of the storm shows no signs yet of southwest shear that is supposed to turn it north. You can see on the visible satellite loop that tops of the storms are still being pushed to the south and southwest. Shoot, you can even see the tops of the storms that are in the Bahamas that are west of the storm still being blown off to the south and west. Seems to me that the strength of that high pressure is winning verses the strength of the trough??
1724. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 291432
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-126

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 30/1130Z A. 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0311A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 0411A JOAQUIN
C. 30/0715Z C. 30/1730Z
D. 26.3N 72.4W D. NA
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 30/2330Z A. 01/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0511A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 0611A JOAQUIN
C. 30/1930Z C. 01/0530Z
D. 26.3N 73.1W D. NA
E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 75
A. 01/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0711A JOAQUIN
C. 01/0730Z
D. 26.1N 73.7W
E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 01/2330Z. G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 01/1730Z
AND 02/0530Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

$$
JWP
Quoting 1711. 900MB:



They have been behind in the intensity for the past couple days...

I see that, too.

From Forecast Discussion #3
48H 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Current position and intensity
INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
Quoting 1723. dartboardmodel:

What I find disturbing is the outflow to the west of the storm shows no signs yet of southwest shear that is supposed to turn it north. You can see on the visible satellite loop that tops of the storms are still being pushed to the south and southwest. Shoot, you can even see the tops of the storms that are in the Bahamas that are west of the storm still being blown off to the south and west. Seems to me that the strength of that high pressure is winning verses the strength of the trough??


Not supposed to turn north until Friday night so there would be no reason to see that now.
Quoting 1703. Gator13126:



Good thing I am getting married on 10/11!


Shotgun or Pinterest? ;)
Banned for defending NHC xD.Any way the NHC is using strong wording in there discussions now.I wish we could hear from Baha on what is currently going on but she did say something about losing power yesterday so it'll be a while before we hear from her.
Quoting 1718. weathermanwannabe:

Pretty frightening if you are in the Bahamas right now seeing this bearing down on you:




It's a bit frightening espacially because the Bahamas are mostly flat. But the same storm heading my way would be very exciting :)
1730. 882MB
Quoting 1711. 900MB:



They have been behind in the intensity for the past couple days...


Every single forecast that keeps coming out has a stronger system. I remember its first advisory had Joaquin as a TD for those first 5 days. So truly, really behind in intensity.
Quoting 1727. redwagon:



Shotgun or Pinterest? ;)


Pinterest?
1732. evsnds
Quoting 1721. WilmyPir8:

Is it just me, or does JQ's forecast appear to be sliding W and S on each update. Granted, I live in Wilmington, NC and have family in Morehead City, NC, thus I may just be paranoid...

Also, with most of the models pointing towards landfall in NC/VA, why is the forecast pointing to NJ?


I'm in Central VA with interests in the VA beach area, and the northern neck. I really hope this doesn't go the way of the Delmarva, or I'm going to have to make a couple of phone calls...
New convection blowing up south/southwest of the center. This thing has expanded and continuously blown up new towers all morning... Eye will likely clear out this evening or tonight.
1734. hydrus
Hurricane may be moving fast if and when heading toward shore..



I can tell you that those of us along the Jersey Shore are crossing our fingers this storm stays away! I am in Ocean County, 10 minutes south of Seaside Heights, and Sandy devastated my area so the memory is still super sour. Lets hope this stays offshore, but I am watching this blog every hour to see what you all have to say. In the meantime I've learned my lesson and I will begin to prepare.
Quoting 1718. weathermanwannabe:

Pretty frightening if you are in the Bahamas right now seeing this bearing down on you:




Anyone else see a face in the last frame?
Quoting 1721. WilmyPir8:

Is it just me, or does JQ's forecast appear to be sliding W and S on each update. Granted, I live in Wilmington, NC and have family in Morehead City, NC, thus I may just be paranoid...

Also, with most of the models pointing towards landfall in NC/VA, why is the forecast pointing to NJ?


The European model has it not directly effecting land, even though impacts will still be strong regardless. It's currently the model the NHC trusts the most of the time being. Their confidence in the track past day three is quite low though, so they're just placing it in an area that is most reasonable to put it at for the time being combining the models, and conditions aloft.
Quoting 1697. Patrap:




Go home BAMS, you're drunk.
1739. Patrap
1740. MahFL
I choose the wrong day to clear out my ignore list....adding one or two back.....
Quoting 1716. WeatherConvoy:


If the HWRF is correct at 922mb Holy Crap. As NOTHING is out of the realm of Possibility at least within physics. I mean 80 degree SSTs go close to the DELMARVA Peninsula. N Carolina on North PLEASE get prepared for this!


This buoy says otherwise.

Station 44014 (LLNR 550) - VIRGINIA BEACH 64 NM East of Virginia Beach, VA

Conditions at 44014 as of
(10:50 am EDT)
1450 GMT on 09/30/2015:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 112 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.6 F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 73.8 F
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 7.8 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 7.8 kts
1742. hydrus
Quoting 1710. hydrus:

Absolutely

Looking at the real deal
Quoting 1728. washingtonian115:

Banned for defending NHC xD.Any way the NHC is using strong wording in there discussions now.I wish we could hear from Baha on what is currently going on but she did say something about losing power yesterday so it'll be a while before we hear from her.



best way not too get banned now is too go in too lurk mode and this follow the blog it is this too carzy in here now too be posting any more with out getting banned and turst me with a storm heading your way you dont want too get locked up for 24hrs or more best way too blog now and lurk and this follow a long

by all back when this storm is out of here too nuts in here too be posting any more
Quoting 1736. VAbeachhurricanes:



Anyone else see a face in the last frame?


Looks like a duck.


ANY WAY THIS HURRICANE WILL BE A CAT 3 HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS FROM NOW
Worried about a storm surge being pushed into the Chesapeake Bay. We thought Sandy was bad but if a large surge gets into the Bay it has literally no where to go but up
1748. GPTGUY
Joaquin has a similar appearance that Katrina had ten years ago when it was near the Keys before it started to rapidly intensify.
At the current cone forecast this hurricane will be far more worse for Delaware, then when Sandy hit.
Quoting 1736. VAbeachhurricanes:



Anyone else see a face in the last frame?
I see a face from Florida.
Quoting 1748. GPTGUY:

Joaquin has a similar appearance that Katrina had ten years ago when it was near the Keys before it started to rapidly intensify.


All the ingredients are there for a powerful hurricane in the making - very warm SST, less shear and hot towers.
Quoting 1732. evsnds:




Where in Central VA are you? I'm in the Richmond metro (Chesterfield County). Seems like the main cluster of model plots have been adamant about tracking this thing right over us.

And a strong hurricane right over the Tidewater would be devastating.... Norfolk/Hampton Roads are practically surrounded by water. A Cat 2 or 3 hurricane would create a surge comparable to, if not worse than Isabel.
Quoting 1745. rmbjoe1954:



Looks like a duck.


Looks like Donald Trump
Quoting 1752. tropicfreak:



Where in Central VA are you? I'm in the Richmond metro (Chesterfield County). Seems like the main cluster of model plots have been adamant about tracking this thing right over us.

And a strong hurricane right over the Tidewater would be devastating.... Norfolk/Hampton Roads are practically surrounded by water. A Cat 2 or 3 hurricane would create a surge comparable to, if not worse than Isabel.


It's been awhile since I was in Norfolk area (Navy), but aren't parts of Norfolk actually below sea level downtown? I seem to recall that...
1756. barbamz
Live streaming Port Nassau webcam/Bahamas. When the camera moves sight to the left there is a front of clouds at the horizon which may already belong to Joaquin.
The core is finally starting to show some symmetry in the NW Quad which means the NW shear has perhaps relaxed a little bit as the storm inches towards the SW away from it.
Quoting 1747. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Worried about a storm surge being pushed into the Chesapeake Bay. We thought Sandy was bad but if a large surge gets into the Bay it has literally no where to go but up


That would be bad for DC as the district is built on old swamp land.
Quoting 1717. CaribBoy:

Meanwhile the weather remains extremely boring for late september here.


Long boring days until next season,sorry Carib.
1760. Dakster
I am glad that Joaquin will not be coming to South Florida. Hope he decides to miss any more populated areas too. I would say not hit land, but the Bahamas is obviously getting the brunt of Joaquin as a Cat. 1...

Quoting 1749. WeatherMSK:

At the current cone forecast this hurricane will be far more worse for Delaware, then when Sandy hit.
maybe the winds will be higher then sandy with this hurricane
Eagles play the Redskins in Landover on Sunday.
Looks like the only potential NFL match-up that has to keep an eye out on this.
1763. evsnds
Quoting 1752. tropicfreak:



Where in Central VA are you? I'm in the Richmond metro (Chesterfield County). Seems like the main cluster of model plots have been adamant about tracking this thing right over us.

And a strong hurricane right over the Tidewater would be devastating.... Norfolk/Hampton Roads are practically surrounded by water. A Cat 2 or 3 hurricane would create a surge comparable to, if not worse than Isabel.


I live in Chesterfield as well, Courthouse at Powhite area. I doubt we're looking at a Cat2/3...HWRF is insane. I am worried about my river house though on the Potomac...
1764. sar2401
Quoting 1712. Drakoen:

The only reason the "track forecast late in the period remains low" is because of the ECMWF. The rest of the guidance is fairly well clustered.
The ECMWF is a big outlier right now, but it has been in the past and turned out to be right. The ECMWF will join the rest of the tracks in 24 hours if things don't change in terms of southward track.
1765. JRRP
wsw
1766. Patrap

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

Are we sure this won't affect FL?
Because I see people on here saying watch out.. And I'm so confused! I didn't even know Joaquin was out there. Can someone clear this up for me & put a end to the predictions and wish casting?
Quoting 1753. NovaScotia33:



Looks like Donald Trump
Banned for sure.
99L (or whats left of it) at top of screen off FL coast getting sucked into Joaquin's circulation

1771. Michfan
Quoting 1767. WeatherLover213:

Are we sure this won't affect FL?
Because I see people on here saying watch out.. And I'm so confused! I didn't even know Joaquin was out there. Can someone clear this up for me & put a end to the predictions and wish casting?


Follow the NHC and their guidance. Don't make any decisions based off of this blog.
Quoting 1758. rmbjoe1954:



That would be bad for DC as the district is built on old swamp land.
D.C has levees believe it or not and downtown is actually below sea level.
1773. Patrap
Hurricane Preparation 2015

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com





History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.




You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety



* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.

* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.

* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.

* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.

* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.

* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.

* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.

* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.

* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).

* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.


Sanitation and Hygiene



It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations



Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes



Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health



The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane



SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organi
Quoting 1755. tornadodude:


Same path of Andrew,but not the same forecast.
Quoting 1767. WeatherLover213:

Are we sure this won't affect FL?
Because I see people on here saying watch out.. And I'm so confused! I didn't even know Joaquin was out there. Can someone clear this up for me & put a end to the predictions and wish casting?


All the data shows it going north, not into Florida. While it's always good to keep an eye open it can be a relaxed eye for now.
Quoting 1772. washingtonian115:

D.C has levees believe it or not and downtown is actually below sea level.


That reminds me of NOLA. That's high risk there.

Be prepared and stay safe.
Quoting 1767. WeatherLover213:

Are we sure this won't affect FL?
Because I see people on here saying watch out.. And I'm so confused! I didn't even know Joaquin was out there. Can someone clear this up for me & put a end to the predictions and wish casting?


Right now, there is no reason to think the storm will affect FL. Follow your local mets and the NHC and not the folks on this blog putting out bad information.
1778. Dakster
Quoting 1772. washingtonian115:

D.C has levees believe it or not and downtown is actually below sea level.


We have seen severe flooding in DC fairly recently due to that fact. And DC is actually sinking - I am sure large flood events are not going to help in that regard either.


Stay safe Washi...
It looks like a large duck on the outer perimeter with a small duck image in the eye area. And that's my meterological spin on it
Quoting 1745. rmbjoe1954:



Looks like a duck.

1780. sar2401
Quoting 1747. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Worried about a storm surge being pushed into the Chesapeake Bay. We thought Sandy was bad but if a large surge gets into the Bay it has literally no where to go but up
I might add that the ECMWF was an outlier for Sandy as well but turned out to be the correct solution. I think this explains the NHC's decision not to discount that model as quickly as it might a lesser model.
Quoting 1726. VAbeachhurricanes:



Not supposed to turn north until Friday night so there would be no reason to see that now.


They are now saying on TWC that the cold front stalls on the eastern seaboard. How will this affect future model runs?
Quoting 1735. JerseyShoreGirl:

I can tell you that those of us along the Jersey Shore are crossing our fingers this storm stays away! I am in Ocean County, 10 minutes south of Seaside Heights, and Sandy devastated my area so the memory is still super sour. Lets hope this stays offshore, but I am watching this blog every hour to see what you all have to say. In the meantime I've learned my lesson and I will begin to prepare.


I'm with you there. As much fun as this storm has been to track, I'm not thrilled about sand-bagging again, but I have the shovel and bags ready nonetheless.

Washi.....how did you do with all that rain last night? The radar showed some pretty intense returns in your area.
Quoting 1776. rmbjoe1954:



That reminds me of NOLA. That's high risk there.

Be prepared and stay safe.
Quoting 1778. Dakster:



We have seen severe flooding in DC fairly recently due to that fact. And DC is actually sinking - I am sure large flood events are not going to help in that regard either.


Stay safe Washi...
Arlington was actually flooding yesterday from rain,and that was minor compared to what Joaquin can bring.
1784. ncstorm
The 12z NAM precip totals up to 84 hours..

1786. NatsFan
Quoting 1736. VAbeachhurricanes:



Anyone else see a face in the last frame?


I see a rubber ducky
1787. Patrap
One has time now to plan and prepare if near or in the track path.

Take today to review and get what you would need .

With the timing a uncertainty, that window to move about downstream in time may close quicker than currently forecasted,

Advise the elderly, the disabled and mobility challenged,also check on friends who may not be aware of the situation developing.

Take care of one another
1788. Gearsts
Quoting 1767. WeatherLover213:

Are we sure this won't affect FL?
Because I see people on here saying watch out.. And I'm so confused! I didn't even know Joaquin was out there. Can someone clear this up for me & put a end to the predictions and wish casting?
Florida shield is up.
1789. fmbill
Quoting 1781. SCwannabee:



They are now saying on TWC that the cold front stalls on the eastern seaboard. How will this affect future model runs?


What pushes the stalled front from here (Friday):


...To here (Saturday):


???
Quoting 1780. sar2401:

I might add that the ECMWF was an outlier for Sandy as well but turned out to be the correct solution. I think this explains the NHC's decision not to discount that model as quickly as it might a lesser model.


True, but the GFS came onboard eventually.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
12z GFS Starting

1793. ncstorm
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

GFS 12z init #Joaquin at 982 mb -- not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb.
1794. Gearsts
Quoting 1781. SCwannabee:



They are now saying on TWC that the cold front stalls on the eastern seaboard. How will this affect future model runs?
Look for the NHC track.
I know this might seem like a dumb ? But has a storm ever pushed through a trough? Like does it matter if the trough is weak or strong and does the storms strength change any of that?
Quoting 1784. ncstorm:

The 12z NAM precip totals up to 84 hours..




Don't really need that much, not in the least
011L/H/J/C1

1798. IDTH
Quoting 1780. sar2401:

I might add that the ECMWF was an outlier for Sandy as well but turned out to be the correct solution. I think this explains the NHC's decision not to discount that model as quickly as it might a lesser model.

Actually the gfs and euro both flipped their solutions and the gfs was showing an ots solution and the euro showed landfall. The same thing happened with this storm except the roles have reversed and the gfs is the one in consensus while the euro is the outlier.
Quoting 1795. Austin72893:

I know this might seem like a dumb ? But has a storm ever pushed through a trough?
no getting absorbed by one is more likely
Don't larger storms steer themselves more and should I assume that's part of the models? Could Joaquin's size and power substantially change the models' track? TIA - Living in Central Florida.
1802. sar2401
Quoting 1789. fmbill:



What pushes the stalled front from here (Friday):


...To here (Saturday):


???

The location of the front, what happens to the former 99L, how strong the high is over Canada, and what role 98L plays in the mix, are all critical factors to the exact path of Joaquin. I'm sure I will be posting right before a new blog. Messrs Masters and Henson will have a good explanation of this forecaster's nightmare...
my last still image zoomed out a little

1805. sar2401
Quoting 1798. IDTH:


Actually the gfs and euro both flipped their solutions and the gfs was showing an ots solution and the euro showed landfall. The same thing happened with this storm except the roles have reversed and the gfs is the one in consensus while the euro is the outlier.
Correct, although the ECMWF track change was several days before landfall and, as I said, turned out to be the correct solution. The ECMWF has shown considerable skill with Mid-Atlantic/Northeast tracking storms in the past, so the NHC is going to do what it's doing now - bend the track to the west until such time as other models change toward the ECMWF or the ECMWF joins the party for a landfall.
1806. MahFL
In the mean time some rain is sneaking into part of CA :

Reminds me of how Katrina looked as it was going SW over FL

Quoting 1808. RitaEvac:

Reminds me of how Katrina looked as it was going SW over FL




close too cat two status now here is latest

1810. JRRP
Quoting 1765. JRRP:

wsw

I meant is moving wsw

1811. 7544
Watching the outer bands if this thing gets around few more degrees west then sf could could feel some effects ?
Quoting 1810. JRRP:


I meant is moving wsw




Exactly like Katrina looked when it passed over FL into the Gulf,
Quoting 1808. RitaEvac:

Reminds me of how Katrina looked as it was going SW over FL


i see the eye
So we Here in FlOrida really will get nothing from this storm
1815. MahFL
Quoting 1814. oceanblues32:

So we Here in FlOrida really will get nothing from this storm


Riptides and larger waves.

"...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING..."

Several people will die.
1816. vis0

Quoting 1551. washingtonian115:

I bring bad luck everywhere I go.I visited N.Y.C in 2011 they later get a hurricane,I visit the Bahamas two weeks ago now they have a hurricane these are just a few examples.
i've seen this in other people including my mother.
Its NOT that YOU bring bad luck, as  the energy you'd need to change nature cannot come from just 1 person. Now,  groups of 3 in a larger group of hundreds in REAL deep meditation (form of prayers with only positive thoughts) maaaaybe might  tweak here and there as to nature. And a tweak here or can change other things i.e. domino effect combined with fly that scares Elephant in Africa creates a change around the world,  tale.
What you might have are premonitions and your soul-spirit connection desires to go towards that area BEFORE the disaster happens. Why BEFORE?  BEFORE larger weather events there are very low resonance & mag signs via star, space & the planet within.  Specific energy flows are created so anyone with a specifically tuned brain can pick that up and usually SUBCONSCIOUSLY (some consciously) act upon ot be it go "there" or avoid "there". A simple version of this is music, some subconsciously hear a certain type of music and react to it, be it positive or negative reaction, plants do this so why not complex beings, this feature is  just deep within us so when these things happen we add our own feeling" to the end result.
Most true premonitions are deep in the brain so we only get lite hints. Its very hard for the conscious brain to "pick it up" as there is SO much the conscious brain has to keep as grocery lists, job notes, each fav team stuperstitious sitting positions, my birthday, your birthday (real and made up dateS), what WxModel to follow - changes on an hourly bases - and so much more that purer and  simple energy flows are blocked by so much chaotic  energy we call our conscious thoughts.

To take a positive advantage when you get that urge to visit a "far" way place in some cases let people there know of WxU as that will give them a head start in preparing for natural disasters. You don't have to say "go to WxU and read how to prepare for  disasters"  just say "there's a great site that has the best weather photos and many great features from independent forecasts to specific warnings for any disasters and how to deal with disasters." the n run in a zig zag pattern in the other direction while yelling in a high pitched voice "wooo wooo wooo wooo"

[joke w. hint or realism] If you ever go to Ca. call their earthquake hotline & Taz and tell them to be aware and prepared though something as big as expected sadly is way too big and most important TOO big to have everyone get away from.[joke w. hint or realism]

ONE footnote Someone stated that the reason [ ] TS or [ ] Hurr JQ (chk appropriate box) is not heading towards FL is "Science".
Though i understand the point for saying science , SCIENCE is also the reason it MIGHT head towards FL. as  the beauty of science is we will NEVER know everything but nature/gawd gives us so much to keep us busy (never be bored**) by learning (if we want). It would take the ENTIRE life of a universe (billions of years) to learn 66% of everything there is so lets start learning yesterday.

**think 'bout it how thoughtful nature/ gawd are to give a gift as science that never bores one, how many gifts can you truly say has not bored you after you used it for a month or two [edited out the filthy joke before even posting it] .

This ends this session,


...how do i owe ya washi115???
1817. Patrap
1818. Patrap
1819. vis0

Quoting 1648. LongIslandBeaches:



Well it does have everything to do with how intelligent beings communicate with each other. How can you expect anybody to take you seriously if you don't even take your own writing seriously?
NOT A PERSONAL REPLY TO THE ORIGINAL COMMENT(TATORS...hmm fries) more of a general reply::

so wrong on so many levels, as ignorance from either end is bad.
If a person with a phD ignorez an0thr person kause they kannot sp3ll things korectlee how can a mute be int3ligent, how can old parabl3s be underst00d after so much weathrng, how can poeople in illegal prison camps secretly communicate to ask for help, why should an emergency technician help someone over the phone whom cannot yell for help cause they are choking and sound just like a prank call.
Its the responsibility  of the educated not uneducated to separate those that are jokers from real knowledgeable people, that for whatever reason did not have a good education but still have knowledge flowing from their thought/imagination.
This is why ignorance is a two way street and the worst TO ME is when educated people do not use their education to help bring the best out of others.
Not that educated people go out and teach everyone that is impossible, but listen ASK QUESTIONS to see if those that lack grammar skills are trying to share an important thought or just don't care.
We lose many potential "help clean earth" people by putting them down 'cause they do not understand the science behind why Earth is warming and in a few seconds they feel ignored 'cause some intelligent person puts them down/insults  for not understanding "simple" science. If its a trol post a simple link to an explanation pg, have those links on the side ready to post so at worst every time a troll posts here you have a link to explain in a simple manner why pollution is bad. Maybe if 5 wanna-be-trolls read those pgs and 1 troll stops, thinks and helps that's a 20% success rate, ignorance on my last check has a 0% success rate...might be negative by now.

WHETHER:: go read the next blogbyte, please excuse if the author(s) misspelled or used incorrect grammar i hear they gnow much and luv to teach others no matter if the "others" show intelligence or knot.
Patrap: thanx for genisis...that is a great loop
1821. Patrap
break,break,,

,is bahahurricane around, I have a important wu mail for her.