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Joaquin Close to Category 5 Strength; Rains Inundate Carolinas

By: Bob Henson 6:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2015

There is plenty of life left in Hurricane Joaquin as it moves away from the Bahamas. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected winds around noon EDT Saturday of 144 knots at the 700-millibar level, with stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) data showing estimated surface winds of 138 knots (159 mph). The National Hurricane Center upgraded Joaquin’s strength to top sustained winds of 155 mph in a special advisory at noon EDT Saturday, up from 130 mph in the advisory issued just an hour earlier. This immediately pushed Joaquin from the bottom to the top end of the Category 4 scale. A central pressure of 933 millibars was reported, although a radiosonde deployed in the eye of Joaquin failed, so there is some uncertainty around this estimate. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft was en route to Joaquin as of early Saturday afternoon. Joaquin’s eye has warmed and cleared over the last few hours, reflecting the rapid restrengthening, although infrared satellite imagery shows that its core of strongest thunderstorms has become smaller and less intense.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Joaquin heading away from the Bahamas as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Saturday, October 3, 2015, at approximately 1:30 pm EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Joaquin’s burst of strength is especially remarkable given that a strong El Niño is under way (El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by enhancing wind shear). The last Atlantic storm with sustained winds this strong was Hurricane Igor, in 2010, which peaked at 155 mph. The Atlantic’s last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix, in 2007, with winds topping out at 160 mph. The last El Niño season that managed to produce a Category 5 was 2004, when Ivan formed. However, the El Niño event of 2004-05 was relatively weak, with autumn Niño3.4 anomalies of only around +0.7°C compared to the current value of more than +2.0°C.

Joaquin is also in an area where very few Category 5 track segments have been reported since reliable records began in 1950 (see Figure 2). Record-warm waters in this part of the Northwest Atlantic are likely playing a major role in Joaquin’s unusual strength. Joaquin was designated as a tropical depression on Sunday night, September 27, at latitude 27.5°N. This makes Joaquin one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record to have begun its life as a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude. In fact, Joaquin’s latest location (26.4°N. 70.9°W) is still south of its origin point.

Fortunately for the United States, Joaquin is hustling into the open Atlantic, now moving northeast at 16 mph. Track models are fairly consistent in keeping Joaquin west of Bermuda, but with only a small margin for error. Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning; at a minimum, the island can expect high surf, strong winds, and a few squalls from outer-edge rainbands, especially as Joaquin makes its closest approach on Monday.


Figure 2. In this map of all Category 5 hurricanes reported in the Atlantic since 1950, bright purple indicates the segments where Category 5 strength was analyzed. Image credit: The Weather Channel, courtesy Jon Erdman.


Figure 3. Satellite image Hurricane Joaquin taken at noon EDT October 3, 2015. At the time, the hurricane was just below Category 5 strength with top winds of 155 mph. A band of very heavy rain can also been seen feeding into South Carolina, to the northwest of the hurricane. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Flooding from heavy rain swamps the intersection of Huger Street and King Street in Charleston, S.C. on Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: Matthew Fortner/The Post And Courier, via AP.

Severe flooding likely in South Carolina Saturday and Sunday
As expected, a band of torrential rain has materialized over South Carolina, paving the way for an especially dangerous situation from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. As of midday Saturday, the heaviest rain extended from the south half of the South Carolina coastline northwest across the state to the hilly Uplands region. The swath of intense rain will pivot very slowly in a counterclockwise direction, gradually translating southward over the higher terrain but moving very little near the coastline. This will put the area around Charleston at particular risk of severe flash flooding from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. CoCoRaHS maps show widespread rain totals of 4” - 8” in the Charleston area from 7:00 am EDT Friday to 7:00 am Saturday.


Figure 5. Predicted 15-hour rainfall totals from the HRRR model for the period from 10:00 am Saturday, October 3, to 1:00 am Sunday, October 4. Image credit: NWS/NCEP.


The Charleston area has a reasonable chance of beating the all-time three-day rainfall records below, possibly in just a 24-hour period!

North Charleston, SC (CHS)
11.95”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.62”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.40”, 9/19/1998-9/21/1998
10.64”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
10.52”, 9/21/1998-9/23/1998
Records begin in 1938

Downtown Charleston, SC (CXM)
12.39”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.92”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.73”, 9/5/1933-9/7/1933
11.72”, 9/4/1933-9/6/1933
11.31”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
Records begin in 1870

According to the Charleston NWS office, the record 24-hour rainfall for the state of South Carolina is 14.80", observed at Myrtle Beach during Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999.

Forecasters are particularly concerned that high-tide cycles in Charleston may coincide with periods of torrential rain, which could produce extreme flash flooding in the city in short order. The Saturday afternoon high tide of 8.2 feet was the highest to occur since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The next tides will occur in Charleston at 1:34 am and 2:03 pm on Sunday.

Surrounding states are also experiencing heavy rain and flood threats. Mudslides and landslides are possible in the higher terrain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. A strengthening of the onshore flow that has persisted for several days over the mid-Atlantic will again raise the risk of significant tidal flooding from Virginia to New Jersey, especially in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia.


Figure 6. GOES-West infrared satellite image covering the Northeast and Central Pacific, taken at 1545Z (11:45 am EDT) Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Tropical Storm Oho may threaten Hawaii
The hyperactive Central Pacific broke its record--again--for the most number of named storms in a single season with the christening of Tropical Storm Oho on Saturday. According to NHC’s Eric Blake, Oho is the eighth tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific this year, doubling the previous record of just four. Oho is now located roughly 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. The steering patterns that will drive Oho are ill-defined and still evolving, which complicates the track forecast. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center currently projects Oho to arc northwest over the next couple of days, then move more briskly toward the east and northeast on a path that would keep it a couple hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island early next week. There is plenty of room for this forecast to evolve, though. Oho has the chance to become a powerful hurricane, thanks to the weak upper-level flow as well as record-warm waters that have fueled so many other tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific this year. The SHIPS rapid intensification index gives Oho a good chance of rapidly strengthening from Saturday into Sunday. Oho now has top sustained winds of just 40 mph, but most dynamical and statistical models are making Oho a hurricane by Monday, and several bring it to Category 2 status by Thursday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An array of other systems peppered the Northern Hemisphere tropics on Saturday. In the Central Atlantic, Invest 90L is looking less robust, with NHC now giving it only a 40% chance of development in the next 2 to 5 days. A late-blooming Cape Verde wave between 30°W and 35°W poses little threat over at least the next several days, and strong wind shear at low latitudes will probably cap any later development.


Figure 7. WU’s latest tracking map for tropical cyclones around the globe.

In the Northeast Pacific, Invest 94E is slowly organizing more than 1000 miles southwest of Baja California. NHC gives 94E a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday and a 50% chance by Thursday. Closer to Mexico, the remants of Tropical Storm Marty could produce heavy rainfall as they move inland on Sunday into Monday. Some moisture from ex-Marty may get entrained into an upper-level storm taking shape early next week in the Southwest U.S., possibly delivering strong thunderstorms to the Arizona deserts on Monday.

In the Central Pacific, still another system--Tropical Depression 8C, the 13th tropical cyclone to develop in or pass through the Central Pacific this year--formed on Saturday morning about 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu. Moderate southerly shear should keep 8C from developing beyond minimal tropical-storm strength for at least the next couple of days as it pushes westward.

In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Mujigae may strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours before it moves into the coast of extreme southern China, southwest of Hong Kong. To the east, Tropical Storm Choi-Wan will slowly gather steam and may become a minimal typhoon early next week before an expected recurvature just east of Japan by midweek.

We’ll have our next update on Sunday afternoon.

Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



this is probably the most ironic one i have nabbed.... it is a boat sales place about 2 miles from me.... yes...water to the hulls.... my oldest son asked me if a boat place like that can get flood insurance on a boat..... {sarcasm flag}
Quoting 499. sar2401:

Done that. The city says to sue her. My lawyer said it won't look good dragging a nice 88 year old woman into court, and I'm sure he's right. My only hope is I'm dead before the tree falls. Then it won't matter.


as long as you have the letter, you can make her insurance pay...and i pray you are not in that end of the house when it happens
Flagged!

Quoting 461. dew1free:

when a fighter traveling at mach speed makes a turn the nose of the aircrraft turn into the direction it is turning into and the rest of the craft is of course for a short while still traveling in the direction it was going causing tremendous G forces on the aircraft.If a tropical system is riding dominating forces in one direction and is moving into dominating forces in another direction ,it would make it appear as though it was being sheared from the direction is it trying to turn into.Just an observation from my point of view and nothing more.
Quoting 500. wishingSCsnow:

I'm thinking the picture of The Citadel is somehow not true. We most certainly did not have blue skies today........


there was one break today...cant remember if it was 1030 this morning or 230 this afternoon.... it was one of those times because my hubby had come in then...
Quoting 500. wishingSCsnow:

I'm thinking the picture of The Citadel is somehow not true. We most certainly did not have blue skies today........
Looks like this is the original picture, before it was shopped. I don't know why we get this crap every time there's a storm. Too many people in mom's basement with nothing else to do, I guess.

Quoting 503. swflurker:

Flagged!




I've forgot to mention this before.. but is the Flag button broke on Chrome?
I should try Firefox.. Or have i been stripped of my flagging rights for some reason..
Quoting 505. sar2401:

Looks like this is the original picture, before it was shopped. I don't know why we get this crap every time there's a storm. Too many people in mom's basement with nothing else to do, I guess.




i am grabbing from ppl on FB mostly... some the news, some ppl that took them... that one must have been from a repost


ok... this is colonial lake...or was... it is like a pond that has a park all the way around it... sidewalk and all... it is concrete... it also has a pipe that goes to the river which is salt water ...it goes up and down with the tide.... well, it is WAY over the containment walls...


this is what it usually looks like
Using Chrome. Worked for me.

Quoting 506. Articuno:



I've forgot to mention this before.. but is the Flag button broke on Chrome?
I should try Firefox.. Or have i been stripped of my flagging rights for some reason..
Quoting 507. tiggeriffic:



i am grabbing from ppl on FB mostly... some the news, some ppl that took them... that one must have been from a repost

Unfortunately, FB is notorious for this kind of thing. It get's posted by the kid from mom's basement, other people repost, and pretty soon it's all over the internet. I really wish FB would do a photo compare when a picture is uploaded, and set ones aside for moderation when it's pretty clear it came from another picture on the net. It's really not that hard to do with the computing power FB has available.

Edit: Didn't mean crap from you, tigger, I meant crap from these idiots on the internet.
Quoting 511. sar2401:

Unfortunately, FB is notorious for this kind of thing. It get's posted by the kid from mom's basement, other people repost, and pretty soon it's all over the internet. I really wish FB would do a photo compare when a picture is uploaded, and set ones aside for moderation when it's pretty clear it came from another picture on the net. It's really not that hard to do with the computing power FB has available.


that was the only one not known where it came from....most of the others were taken by people i know... or from the news
ok...there is another lull, so am going to try to get some sleep... praying the trees all hold
Well,
Lets think this through. Don't really think TS's travel at mach speeds. So this doesn't apply here.

Quoting 461. dew1free:

when a fighter traveling at mach speed makes a turn the nose of the aircrraft turn into the direction it is turning into and the rest of the craft is of course for a short while still traveling in the direction it was going causing tremendous G forces on the aircraft.If a tropical system is riding dominating forces in one direction and is moving into dominating forces in another direction ,it would make it appear as though it was being sheared from the direction is it trying to turn into.Just an observation from my point of view and nothing more.
Quoting 509. tiggeriffic:



this is what it usually looks like
Looks like they've built lots of houses since that postcard was made. As long as the water stays in the park, it's OK. Not so good if you live in one of those houses though.
Quoting 513. tiggeriffic:

ok...there is another lull, so am going to try to get some sleep... praying the trees all hold
GN, tigger, I hope the trees hold also.
Charleston reminds me of my hometown of Nashville, when we got 14" in two days in May 2010, plus a minor tornado outbreak on the second day. Even though I was on top of a hill, water forced its way into my parents' basement, so I have the fun memory of pushing water out of my basement while the tornado sirens were screaming. Telescopic equipment is more important, I suppose. :)
518. FOREX
Quoting 405. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Tropical wave with a surface low between 35 - 40 W looks good may become our next named storm which would be Kate.




Most likely Fish.
worried about tigger, SJ, nash, palmettobugg56...
can't sleep.

peace ya'll
Quoting 488. tiggeriffic:



and this is what college kids do when they are stuck down town with no way to leave... like i said... it was no one in or out earlier today
No understanding at all of the oral-fecal route of infections like typhoid, cholera nor polio. All that education and so little sense. Stay out of standing storm water. It is full of waste.
I don't think I've ever seen what seems to be happening to a single state right now... at least not unless it's been directly hit by a motionless tropical storm or slow-moving hurricane.

Look at this, for South Carolina... a state that's had tons of rain, already, and for almost a week.

Link

All we/they can hope is that, somehow, the tropical pipeline gets disconnected... and soon... and for a couple of weeks, as otherwise this is obviously going to get worse as all those inland rivers and creeks run off and toward the sea again. :-(

Jo
Good Sunday morning - and boy, the rain hasn't stopped yet in South Carolina. Unbelievable!

Unfortunately there are more grim news to report. Told you yesterday morning of that ULL over France, creating severe weather on its southeastern side. Well, this is what came out of it :-(

France floods: Several dead on Riviera after storms
BBC news, 2 hours ago
Violent storms and flooding have hit southeast France, killing at least 13 people, knocking out power and disrupting travel, officials said.
Three elderly people drowned when their retirement home near the city of Antibes was inundated with floodwater.
Another five people are reported to have died as they tried to park their cars under shelter and became trapped. ...



Airmass pic of that low over France Saturday evening (10 pm local time).


Boah, lots of water: Soccer match between Nice and Nantes had to be abandoned due to this torrential rain. In nearby Cannes nearly 200mm = 7,8 inches of rain were measured in a short period of time.
BBC video report with pictures of crazy flash flooding in the streets.

-------------------------------

And we shouldn't forget the disaster in Guatemala. Obviously by far the deadliest weather related event in the last days:

Guatemala landslide deaths rise to 73, with hundreds missing
BBC news, 9 hours ago
The Guatemalan authorities say the number of people killed when a hillside collapsed on houses in the village of El Cambray, 15km (nine miles) outside the capital, has risen to 73.
They said another 350 people were still believed to be missing under tonnes of rock and earth that slipped onto homes on Thursday night. ...


Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 1m1 minute ago
Hurricane Joaquin: 5 AM ET, 120 mph winds, Cat 3, 952 mb, moving at 20 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6
All the recent above, and it's becoming almost certain that Bermuda will be hit by a weakening Hurricane Joaquin now, and maybe dead on. :-(

Link

They should be ready for it, but still... :-(

Jo
Quote from the blog entry above: "Closer to Mexico, the remants of Tropical Storm Marty could produce heavy rainfall as they move inland on Sunday into Monday."

Indeed, this is looking dangerous:

Source for updates.

Marty floater is still up.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 040843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...
...JOAQUIN LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 67.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this morning, with this motion
continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Live streaming Bermuda portcamera. Huh, winds already howling!


00z ECMWF (Euro) still has Joaquin passing closely west of Bermuda (black arrow).
Source Wundermap.

Look at my last link, barbamz... Bermuda will be lucky... any models or no... of not taking a nearly direct hit from a Cat. 3 hurricane.

As always, they're as well prepared for such an event as any country/state in the world, but still... a total and scary pain and disruption for them. :-(

Jo

Mujigae landfall in southern China (saved loop).

Typhoon Mujigae Hits Southern China
Ten of thousands move to higher ground amid powerful winds, heavy rain
Associated Press/WSJ, Updated Oct. 4, 2015 3:55 a.m. ET


Cat 4! Some very rapid intensification must have happened.
9N 38W COULD BECOME 91l TODAY ANDS IN A FEW DAYS KATE


BERMUDA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE... ...JOAQUIN LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY... watch out beruda and maybe and invest soon
mojo.+=atlantic


watch the Central Atlantic something big is going to happern there..
LBAR, I was in Sumter yesterday when the skies opened up around 3pm. For a while I was doubting I was going to make it home. Took 76 back to Florence and it was filling up quickly since everything is so saturated. Won't take much more for serious flooding. Sorry about the tree. Stay safe. Hunkering down today.

Quoting 483. LBAR:

Tree fell in our front yard here in central South Carolina. The whole thing...roots and all. Luckily not in the road or near the house.
Shear might be the only inhibiting factor in the CATL wave
looks to be the same area where Tomas was spawned in 2010. wave definitely needs watching. could be a low rider
Quoting 537. stoormfury:

Shear might be the only inhibiting factor in the CATL wave

no wind shear yet
Let us hope it never gets its act together and just brings some beneficial rains to the islands. So much for a quiet El Nino year.

Quoting 537. stoormfury:

Shear might be the only inhibiting factor in the CATL wave

very robust tropical wave with a low 1012mb and 25-30 mph winds mainly to the sw according to latest AScat
We now have 91L.
Thanks Barb.
If you can't see camera and are using chrome with the "AdBlock " extensions enabled, disabling them worked for me.

Quoting 527. barbamz:

Live streaming Bermuda portcamera. Huh, winds already howling!


00z ECMWF (Euro) still has Joaquin passing closely west of Bermuda (black arrow).
Source Wundermap.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located about 200 miles southwest of Bermuda.

Shower activity remains minimal in association with an area of low
pressure located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive due to nearby
Hurricane Joaquin, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A broad low pressure area located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for tropical cyclone formation and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Bermuda about to get lashed by a rain band http://www.weather.bm/tools/animateimages.asp?name =RADAR_250KM_SRI
starting to rain in Bermuda fromthe hurricane
Hurricane Joaquin is on the way - Watch out Bermuda!

Hope you are ready. Run from the water, hide from the wind...

After dealing with double-hit hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo in October 2014, most residents in Bermuda probably know what to expect!

Good luck!
Good Morning all..

the rain is back here and will continue until Monday..

The axis unfortunately is shifting back towards the north slowly. The rain looks to have slowed to a drizzle in Charleston as Jim Cantore is reporting live from there..(that man really is a show stopper)..

The pictures coming from SC especially Charleston are just incredible..SC is now under a Civil Emergency.

and take note, this isnt done as my NWS mention this morning..next week people will have to deal with major River Flooding..

Now Georgetown is under the gun..

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
15 mins

WMBF Meteorologist Andy Stein reports 5 feet of water in parts of Georgetown, SC. We are near low tide now; if heavy rain continues through the early afternoon high tide runoff will be slowed and flooding will become immeasurably worse.




Hard to say the relation can be made yet but I am willing to bet some of these extreme events lately with heavy rains in SO CAL, FL, and now N & SC are related to this powerful El-Nino.

Just a monster El-Nino taking shape and making 1997's ENSO look like a chump.



TWC said some places will see over 30 inches of rain after this is said and done..
Quoting 556. ncstorm:

TWC said some places will see over 30 inches of rain after this is said and done..


ARE YOU READY TO WATCH INVEST 91L soon
Quoting 530. barbamz:


Mujigae landfall in southern China (saved loop).

Typhoon Mujigae Hits Southern China
Ten of thousands move to higher ground amid powerful winds, heavy rain
Associated Press/WSJ, Updated Oct. 4, 2015 3:55 a.m. ET


Cat 4! Some very rapid intensification must have happened.


Reminds me somewhat of when Rammasun rapidly intensified into a category 5 on approach to the same area last year.

Also, it appears that Joaquin is undergoing an EWRC at the moment. That could be somewhat bad news for Bermuda as its wind field will expand and if it can manage to finish it sooner rather than later, could mean that Joaquin will be a large and powerful system as it passes by Bermuda.
Quoting 558. Envoirment:



Reminds me somewhat of when Rammasun rapidly intensified into a category 5 on approach to the same area last year.

Also, it appears that Joaquin is undergoing an EWRC at the moment. That could be somewhat bad news for Bermuda as its wind field will expand and if it can manage to finish it sooner rather than later, could mean that Joaquin will be a large and powerful system as it passes by Bermuda.

Hmm, I'm not sure whether Joaquin will be able to reestablish a proper eye. Storm is racing along over cooler waters and weakening.
From latest center fix by recon:
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available



Guys, watch the Bermuda Cam!! Ferocius winds now. All the best to the inhabitants!

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

BTW, the gap in the row of palmtrees had been the work of Gonzalo last year, if memory serves me right.
Some of the early pictures of the Bahamas and the southeast are very disturbing. I hope this is just an affect of el Nino and not a trend. The flooding and erosion on the entire coast is unusual, except in, what I call "regular" storms.
Quoting 556. ncstorm:

TWC said some places will see over 30 inches of rain after this is said and done..
I can believe it:



(Boone Hill Plantation is in the NE suburbs of Charleston.)

And then this from Columbia (note the previous record mark):

For those unfamiliar with these, they are not official tracks. Just showing an area where a potential disturbance may form.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
SOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

SOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY
MESSAGE. SOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS ASKING PEOPLE TO
SAFELY REMAIN WHERE YOU ARE DUE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE. CALL 9 1 1 FOR LIFE THREATENING
EMERGENCIES ONLY.

$$

TRA
The wind is picking up in my area this morning. The worst of the rain stayed well to our south. Thoughts to those in SC.
Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 12m12 minutes ago

Incredible NOAA satellite image showing #Joaquin and the tropical fire hose fueling historic SC flooding.

Aright all..I'm out till later..notice how the rain is filling in from the north..the WRF showed this yesterday but backed off this morning..

Quickly approaching a record rain event for South Carolina. Epic set up and can be contributed to a number of factors. El-Nino, blocking high in the NW Atlantic, moisture feed channel of epic proportion from Joaquin, and a deep dipping jet stream. Have never seen a set up quite like this. South Carolina is being impacted more than if a cat five made a direct hit on the state, in terms of rain.
574. MahFL
Quoting 562. barbamz:

Guys, watch the Bermuda Cam!! Ferocius winds now. All the best to the inhabitants!

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

BTW, the gap in the row of palmtrees had been the work of Gonzalo last year, if memory serves me right.


It seems to be down already.
Quoting 574. MahFL:



It seems to be down already.


It's working for me.
0900 AM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON AIRPORT 32.90N 80.04W
10/04/2015 M16.61 INCH CHARLESTON SC ASOS
STORM TOTAL THROUGH 9 AM.



0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW KIAWAH ISLAND 32.66N 80.10W
10/04/2015 M18.25 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER


0645 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE BOONE HALL PLANTA 32.90N 79.80W
10/04/2015 M24.23 INCH CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 24.23 INCHES. 24 HOUR
ACCUMULATION SINCE 7AM 3 OCTOBER... 13.17 INCHES.

Sumter, Camden, Lugoff,SC areas - radar estimates 12-15" and still coming down. If it moves north I will be under firehose.

NPR reporting 3 dams already breached in Lexington County. I don't have details.

Quoting 571. ncstorm:

Aright all..I'm out till later..notice how the rain is filling in from the north..the WRF showed this yesterday but backed off this morning..


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Bermuda cam working for me too. Full on gale conditions..
Granted only three are cyclones, but has anyone ever seen so many potential storms in one picture before? Ten total systems in one global image is scary!

Link
Good Morning everyone, the season that keeps giving, Invest 91L:





582. SLU
21-12-7 for 2016?