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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see i missed this :
Radar Analysis of a (Possible) Developing Tornado

This afternoon a thunderstorm over southern Mississippi underwent an evolution that is often associated with tornado occurrence in thunderstorms. Whether or not a tornado developed remains to be seen, but the radar evolution was fairly classic. What .............

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If I were a rich man,
Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum.



Geoff, get off that roof right now. Your too old to be up there.
One would think that in this brave new world of AGW that we wouldn't have such early ending seasons.
Quoting LargoFl:
great article there, but they are forgetting, in the tens of billions of planets, who is to say LIFE has to be as WE know Life..suppose there are lifeforms who dont Need the sun, nor air, nor water etc as we do..tens of billions of planets out there in billions of miles of space..who can be sure WHAT life is in the rest of the universe, one so vast humans may never see the outer limits of it..and possibly this isnt the Only universe..whew


I've always thought that as well...and scientists, I always thought, would/should think of it in that way. They have discovered organisms on Earth that live in conditions otherwise inhospitable to 'life'. So surely, the possibilities are endless.
idk why you are all writing off the season so fast the past few Octobers have all seen a few hurricanes in the Caribbean, and we've already seen a hurricane in the Caribbean I would expect at least one more storm there plus another extropical origin storm or two
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, get off that roof right now. Your too old to be up there.


I'm testing how strong my wireless signal is.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

FLC011-021-043-051-086-099-011000-
BROWARD-COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-MIAMI-DADE-PALM BEACH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT LAUDERDALE...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MOORE HAVEN...LA BELLE...CLEWISTON...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...MIAMI...WEST PALM BEACH
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGHTEN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES RESULTING IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT
OF TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AS
THIS OCCURS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THIS PERIOD COULD BE ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES. THE GROUND IS EXTREMELY SATURATED,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREA, DUE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MONDAY IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
May be the next TS



I'm bored to see the rain ALWAYS RECURVING FAR AWAY FROM US!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm bored to see the rain ALWAYS RECURVING FAR AWAY FROM US!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Did you have the honor of making Grothar's latest blog?
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

TORNADO WATCH 657 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC003-023-025-035-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-010 700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0657.120930T2245Z-121001T0700Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE SUMTER
WASHINGTON WILCOX


FLC033-091-113-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0657.120930T2245Z-121001T0700Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA


LAC029-065-071-075-087-103-105-107-117-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0657.120930T2245Z-121001T0700Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CONCORDIA MADISON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON


MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047 -049-059-061-
063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-089-091-099-10 1-109-111-113-
121-123-127-129-131-147-149-153-157-163-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0657.120930T2245Z-121001T0700Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN GEORGE
GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
HINDS JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN
MADISON MARION NESHOBA
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY
PIKE RANKIN SCOTT
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
WALTHALL WARREN WAYNE
WILKINSON YAZOO


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-630-650-655-010 700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0657.120930T2245Z-121001T0700Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...BMX...
*If* something can develop in the NW Caribbean in a few weeks, there is quite the potential it could develop into a major system if the MJO can swing around.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm testing how strong my wireless signal is.


Can you see Russia from there?
Quoting Grothar:


Can you see Russia from there?


Only the Ushanka Cafe down the street.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Only the Ushanka Cafe down the street.


lol
We got a new invest, 96L, in the Eastern Atlantic. Waiting on the TWO and this could become Oscar.
The Miami Dolphins are going to make me climb back on the roof.
Hope everyone is having a great sunday, unfortunately its back to the grind tomorrow...

I saw the NOGAPS for several past runs trying to develop something off the SE coast and move it to NC..looks the HPC got a lotta rain off the SE coast with the new outlook



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Miami Dolphins are going to make me climb back on the roof. Head first or belly flop?
Quoting Slamguitar:

OK, we got a burning question going on in chat.
When did the most tropical cyclones occur at the same time around the globe and how many?


Anyone want to take a stab at this???

I'm very curious.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I can't wait to see the hype start when SHIPS makes it a 90kt hurricane in 4 days, lol.

I personally don't see development with this system, but slow, gradual organization possibly to weak TS strength isn't out of the question.
Remains at 10% and still calling for gradual development.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
The environment for 96L is actually really favorable.

SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 6 8 8 9 11 16 14 13 15 23
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4
700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 70 72 76 76 75 71 71 65 60 61
HEAT CONTENT 21 24 25 22 21 16 17 23 34 36 41 38 20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I can't wait to see the hype start when SHIPS makes it a 90kt hurricane in 4 days, lol.

I personally don't see development with this system, but slow, gradual organization possibly to weak TS strength isn't out of the question.

Not that bullish at all. That means 96L will become a powerful hurricane. XD

V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 44 47 49 50 49 48
WHXX01 KWBC 302327
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2327 UTC SUN SEP 30 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120930 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120930 1800 121001 0600 121001 1800 121002 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 29.0W 10.1N 30.4W 10.9N 32.0W 12.0N 33.9W
BAMD 9.9N 29.0W 10.4N 30.6W 11.3N 32.1W 12.5N 33.6W
BAMM 9.9N 29.0W 10.3N 30.7W 11.1N 32.4W 12.1N 34.1W
LBAR 9.9N 29.0W 10.3N 31.1W 11.3N 33.5W 12.4N 35.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121002 1800 121003 1800 121004 1800 121005 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 36.0W 16.5N 40.5W 19.7N 42.8W 22.6N 38.6W
BAMD 14.0N 35.0W 17.1N 37.7W 20.4N 37.1W 25.6N 28.6W
BAMM 13.3N 35.8W 15.9N 39.2W 18.9N 40.8W 23.1N 35.6W
LBAR 13.7N 38.3W 15.6N 42.5W 17.0N 45.0W 19.2N 44.0W
SHIP 38KTS 47KTS 50KTS 48KTS
DSHP 38KTS 47KTS 50KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 29.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 27.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
That one tornadic storm is still going and still has a tornado warning on it. Rotation is evident and it is still a dangerous storm so stay safe anyone in it's path.

TORNADO WARNING
ALC097-129-MSC041-010015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0069.120930T2308Z-121001T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEAKESVILLE...OR 12 MILES
WEST OF GULFCREST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINEGAR BEND... TIBBIE... DEER PARK...
CHATOM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8828 3138 8804 3099 8834 3105 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 210DEG 27KT 3108 8842

$$
I think Nadine has finally had enough.



Who knows though. The way she's been she'll bounce right back by morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The environment for 96L is actually really favorable.

SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 6 8 8 9 11 16 14 13 15 23
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4
700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 70 72 76 76 75 71 71 65 60 61
HEAT CONTENT 21 24 25 22 21 16 17 23 34 36 41 38 20

Something tells me that maybe, just maybe, this will become a hurricane and we will use Oscar this year.
Quoting LargoFl:
thank your stars this isnt january, would be feet of snow on the ground huh

that would be good for those in the plowing buisness... (not me but many near me)
Quoting Grothar:


Glad you are OK. Saw this on the BBC last night and some bloggers posted images. Looked pretty bad.

Thanks for the thoughts.
I saw the Spanish national news a while ago, the scenes of absolute devastation in southern Andalucia are staggering. Worst flooding in over 30 years. There were videos of cars being washed through houses with the force of the flood waters, many properties flooded up to the roofs.
At least 10 people killed and quite a few missing, massive livestock losses, over 70,000 acres totally covered in water in just one area. Freeways closed for replacement of washed away bridges.
Normal rainfall in this area for the whole of September is about 1-2 inches, some areas got up to 13 inches in a day.
In some towns nobody knows how to start and rebuild things and in some areas there are also massive amounts of up to 50% unemployment, so very little money and almost nobody insured.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Nadine has finally had enough.



Who knows though. The way she's been she'll bounce right back by morning.
She sure hung around long enough to take all the heat out of the ocean in that area huh
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

that would be good for those in the plowing buisness... (not me but many near me)
yes sure would alright
Quoting KoritheMan:
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the season ended after Nadine. The only reason I'm even saying otherwise is because of the possibility of the MJO swinging back in, which could help to generate a Caribbean storm, but as we've seen before, MJO forecasts can be rather lacking. There's also the potential for a couple high-latitude spinups, but those are difficult to predict anyways.

I'd be a little disappointed if Nadine was our last hurrah, but it is what it is I suppose.

If the formation of the last storm this season was mid September as was the case with Nadine, would that be a new record for the earliest that a hurricane season ended?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm testing how strong my wireless signal is.


And apparently the tequila too.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORMANDY...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ORTEGA...RIVERSIDE...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...
OCEANWAY...ARLINGTON...UNF AND FORT CAROLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
96l - a (re)curving storm.... Just the way I like them.
Good night folks..push some rain this way ok,thanks...
Quoting LargoFl:
yes sure would alright

We'll be hoping...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Something tells me that maybe, just maybe, this will become a hurricane and we will use Oscar this year.

I hope we get to use Oscar this year. It would be ashamed if this year's list of names kept remaining the only one of the six year cycle that failed to make it past the N storm. And on another interesting note, this list of names is the only one that has failed to bring a landfalling major hurricane to the United States or had a US-landfalling tropical cyclone retired. The last time this list of names had a tropical cyclone retired was Hurricane Joan back in 1988. This list of names also seems to coincide with El Nino episodes. It is a jinxed list, lol.
Invest 96L:

Nadine isn't looking as good as earlier on IR either, she may finally be weakening or she could bounce right back or even not weaken at all.
My team won against Tampa!.Yeah! now where are the Tampians?.Anyway I see we have 96L and I have low confidence it'll develop.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
My team won against Tampa!.Yeah! now where are the Tampians?.Anyway I see we have 96L and I have low confidence it'll develop.
Are you trying to mock me?.Because don't you have a team of your own the ravens?.Guys this is NOT THE REAL BALTIMOREBIRDS.They sent me a nasty e-mail yesterday night.
13,000 Homes damaged seems a tad major to many in Se. Louisiana Im sure.

If one is using the Saffir Simpson Scale to determine Impacts....,

..it was designed for wind loading on structures and is the poorest indicator of surge potential.


That's like so 1960's and isn't the determining factor save for some er, non impacted minds.

But dats jus my take on it.




Published on Sep 5, 2012 by AssociatedPress

An emergency official says Hurricane Isaac damaged at least 13,000 homes in Louisiana. The storm also uprooted coffins in a cemetery in Braithwaite, Louisiana. (Sept. 5)


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I can't wait to see the hype start when SHIPS makes it a 90kt hurricane in 4 days, lol.

I personally don't see development with this system, but slow, gradual organization possibly to weak TS strength isn't out of the question.


no bomb hurricane... sad year!
Nadine down to 75kts.

AL, 14, 2012100100, , BEST, 0, 371N, 393W, 75, 981, HU
Somebody just earned a permanent wu-cation seems.

I'm not gonna even bother quoting.Really uncalled for.Stop trolling and trying to take the place of a old blogger and playing with peoples mind.People like you make me sick

This is what I mean by taking advantage of the water UP TO THE LAST DROP!

H 5, 1906
Nadine's convection has decreased a little over the past several hours.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not gonna even bother quoting.Really uncalled for.Stop trolling and trying to take the place of a old blogger and playing with peoples mind.People like you make me sick

You might join him if yer not careful....
I put together a rather unique blog entry tonight. Enjoy.
Ignore and ! - really comes to mind in these situations.Trolls will be trolls...Seriously trying to play people?.Really disturbing.BTW if you can still see me I've been blocked your e-mails.Be gone!
I'm going back on the roof.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:

Ignored.
Weather anyone?.

Bobbyweather please don't quote them I have them in ignore
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hey, enough with your foul language.

Don't quote the troll. It'll get you banned.

The troll has disrupted the blog enough as it is, which is what was intended. Just report, flag, and move on.
Quoting pottery:

You might join him if yer not careful....


Responding to these type of posts are futile.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Weather anyone?.

Me!! LOL
But there's nothing new. There's only the 18-day old Nadine in the tropics.

Hmm... here in South Korea it is getting cooler as autumn begins.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hey, enough with your foul language.


Please don't quote the troll. Just flag, ignore, and move on.


Now back to weather.
Look at that spin develop! 96L.



Weak minds and bad spelling is a sure sign of mental issues.

Off to the Neutral Ground for Music and fun.

Da front has passed and its nice.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't quote the troll. It'll get you banned.

The troll has disrupted the blog enough as it is, which is what was intended. Just report, flag, and move on.

Actually, I did flag. And just in case, I erased the quote.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Me!! LOL
But there's nothing new. There's only the 18-day old Nadine in the tropics.

Hmm... here in South Korea it is getting cooler as autumn begins.
The tree colors around here were beautiful when I went out for a drive today.Took a few photos.Lovely they were!.This why I like this type of weather.
Hey look! Weather!

Quoting Patrap:
Weak minds and bad spelling is a sure sign of mental issues.

Off to the Neutral Ground for Music and fun.

Da front has passed and its nice.


Had some nice showers and a cooler day here too.
Great lightshow over the Venezuelan peninsula at sunset. Fantastic orange sky with lights...
The ignore, minus, and flag features come in handy at a time like this.

Nadine is beginning to make the expected turn and she looks to have possibly peaked. This may be the decay of Nadine. I am writing a blog about the about the longest lived Atlantic storms and will post it in a few hours at the most.
I've got a decent cool down coming. Might have to stop wearing shorts and sandals soon, haha.



I just realized there is the tiniest bit of blue in that precip field. 0.01in of snow on Saturday? Bring it on old man winter!
00z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 300W, 25, 1008, LO
WHXX01 KWBC 010029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC MON OCT 1 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121001 0000 121001 1200 121002 0000 121002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 30.0W 10.4N 31.7W 11.5N 33.5W 12.6N 35.5W
BAMD 10.0N 30.0W 10.5N 31.9W 11.5N 33.5W 12.7N 35.1W
BAMM 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 31.9W 11.6N 33.8W 12.8N 35.6W
LBAR 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 32.1W 11.6N 34.4W 12.7N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121003 0000 121004 0000 121005 0000 121006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.8W 17.0N 42.1W 19.4N 44.1W 21.3N 40.9W
BAMD 14.1N 36.4W 16.8N 38.7W 19.1N 38.3W 22.0N 32.7W
BAMM 14.1N 37.3W 16.9N 40.4W 19.7N 41.1W 22.9N 36.0W
LBAR 13.9N 39.2W 15.6N 43.5W 16.9N 45.7W 19.3N 44.4W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 26.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Is Nadine really weakening for good?.Because she has been known to come back and make a few surprises..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is Nadine really weakening for good?.Because she has been known to come back and make a few surprises..

Yeah, if conditions allow, Nadine might re-regenerate after it becomes post-tropical!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


I havent even seen the model runs... but BUT ALREADY KNOW IT WILL BE A BORING FISH. 2012 it is...
Quoting Slamguitar:
I've got a decent cool down coming. Might have to stop wearing shorts and sandals soon, haha.


Pfft, stop wearing shorts this early for me. I begin to wear pants when it snows and shorts all the other times.
Quoting Patrap:
Somebody just earned a permanent wu-cation seems.

LoL




OH?
Quoting CaribBoy:


I havent even seen the model runs... but BUT ALREADY KNOW IT WILL BE A BORING FISH. 2012 it is...

Nah, man.
It's Oscar you are talking about.

He going to raise the lid of the trash-can, quarrel with everyone and be a real pain in the neck.
I had a fair storm here this evening so thought I'd share. The not so very well set up camera is looking east and the garage insulated the sound of most of the thunder to the south and west (right and back from the camera)

Not much rain but it was a bit loud for a spell.


Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WHXX01 KWBC 010029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC MON OCT 1 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121001 0000 121001 1200 121002 0000 121002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 30.0W 10.4N 31.7W 11.5N 33.5W 12.6N 35.5W
BAMD 10.0N 30.0W 10.5N 31.9W 11.5N 33.5W 12.7N 35.1W
BAMM 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 31.9W 11.6N 33.8W 12.8N 35.6W
LBAR 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 32.1W 11.6N 34.4W 12.7N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121003 0000 121004 0000 121005 0000 121006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.8W 17.0N 42.1W 19.4N 44.1W 21.3N 40.9W
BAMD 14.1N 36.4W 16.8N 38.7W 19.1N 38.3W 22.0N 32.7W
BAMM 14.1N 37.3W 16.9N 40.4W 19.7N 41.1W 22.9N 36.0W
LBAR 13.9N 39.2W 15.6N 43.5W 16.9N 45.7W 19.3N 44.4W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 26.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



FISH .... and still no rain for us!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Pfft, stop wearing shorts this early for me. I begin to wear pants when it snows and shorts all the other times.


Actually, on Saturday it has 0.01 in of snow forecasted for me. :P
Quoting Grothar:
A whole lotta mess..but nothing going on.
Quoting Civicane49:


A whole lotta mess...but nothing going on.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Actually, on Saturday it has 0.01 in of snow forecasted for me. :P

Did you see the 12z GFS run, it had snow in lower MI.
Quoting pottery:

Nah, man.
It's Oscar you are talking about.

He going to raise the lid of the trash-can, quarrel with everyone and be a real pain in the neck.


How dare you say that about Oscar. That's just a bunch of bologna.
I have done my detailed tropical update for the day...just hot-off-the-press...

See Nadine special feature section for an explanation of how she strengthened in the last day...and what her future could hold. Not looking good for the Azores...a 2nd strike now appears likely thanks to her current looping. She could maintain some of her vigor when she strikes the Azores again as she will be transitioning into a non-tropical cyclone supported by upper divergence...

See paragraph P6 for info on the messy Caribbean weather...and paragraph P8 for the E Atlc tropical wave (which just got upgraded to 96-L while I was writing the update)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


How dare you say that about Oscar. That's just a bunch of bologna.


Does your balogna have a first name?
Quoting Grothar:


A whole lotta mess...but nothing going on.
Lol Gro.I already had to deal with one psychopath Gro.Are you next?.J/K but you would think the MJO is here with all that action going on down there.This is the most thunderstorm activity I've seen in the caribbean since June.
Not all the models have 96L moving that quickly out North. I would like to wait a few days to see what the new one predict.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol Gro.I already had to deal with one psychopath Gro.Are you next?.J/K but you would think the MJO is here with all that action going on down there.This is the most thunderstorm activity I've seen in the caribbean since June.


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.
See the blob how big it grows
But man, as everybody knows,
It's just a cloud.

Filled with swirling rain and stuff
Coming down with ice and fluff,
As Grothar shows.

But don't believe it's over yet,
People will become very wet
And winds will blow,

And every blob from everywhere
Creates panic, doubt and fear
As Grothar knows.

But Honey, I'm begin'
Give us just one more storm,
We been waiting for ages
Wer'e tired of the norm.
We need a good tempest
To straighten us out
And if we don't get one
Yuh better watch out.
Quoting Grothar:


Does your balogna have a first name?


Children come on this blog.
Quoting pottery:
See the blob how big it grows
But man, as everybody knows,
It's just a cloud.

Filled with swirling rain and stuff
Coming down with ice and fluff,
As Grothar shows.

But don't believe it's over yet,
People will become very wet
And winds will blow,

And every blob from everywhere
Creates panic, doubt and fear
As Grothar knows.

But Honey, I'm begin'
Give us just one more storm,
We been waiting for ages
Wer'e tired of the norm.
We need a good tempest
To straighten us out
And if we don't get one
Yuh better watch out.



....I saw it first
Quoting wxchaser97:

Did you see the 12z GFS run, it had snow in lower MI.


Should be interesting to see how that plays out.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm going back on the roof.


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.
Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.
Well I would say bring it up here but I've been getting a good dose of rain so don't need no extras!.
If anyone wants to see Nadine's full track...
Link
Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.

Family blog....
Temperature

80.7 F

Feels Like 88 F
Daytona Beach area 9 p.m.
still hot n humid here

Quoting washingtonian115:
A whole lotta mess..but nothing going on.


Indeed correct conditions across the gulf and most of the caribbean are extremely hostile for development. Convection on satellite across western caribbean is being sparked buy an upper level low in the vicinity. Looks real wet across southern Florida next few days as deep tropical moisture spreads over area.
Quoting pottery:

Family blog....
Stop Pottery.Mind images are starting to appear!.
Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.


Preparation H will help that...
99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....
Quoting Dakster:


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.

yet....
Good evening all! We have been getting quite a bit of rain over the last couple of days,y so any drought or rainfall deficit would have been mostly wiped out....this is quite typical, as September to October is usually the wettest period in most of Jamaica. There have been isolated reports of flooding and landslides, but this could increase as the rain continues.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....

where are you seeing that ?
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all! We have been getting quite a bit of rain over the last couple of days,y so any drought or rainfall deficit would have been mostly wiped out....this is quite typical, as September to October is usually the wettest period in most of Jamaica. There have been isolated reports of flooding and landslides, but this could increase as the rain continues.

Getting some showers here too, Nigel.
Very welcomed.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 16.8N 148.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.4N 144.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters

Additional Information
=====================

From The Tiyan NWS in Guam... A Tropical Storm Warning in now in effect of Alamagan.. Pagan.. Agrihan Island
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #87
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 41.9N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 47.4N 162.8E - Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Kurils
Quoting pottery:

where are you seeing that ?


challenging... since 90 degrees north is the North Pole
Quoting pottery:

Getting some showers here too, Nigel.
Very welcomed.

Hey pottery! The rain has been pretty persistent over the last couple of hours...there may very well be more reports of landslides in the overnight period.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


challenging... since 90 degrees north is the North Pole

That's what I thought.....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.5N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.0N 113.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pottery! The rain has been pretty persistent over the last couple of hours...there may very well be more reports of landslides in the overnight period.

Yep, that looks heavy over Jamaica.
Only 14 days till "The Walking Dead"!!


Nadine still hangin in there!
I has been out of town for a few days,a lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,please update me on what we can expect here in South Florida (Miami) from all this moisture,any tropical development??,it seems looking at the models that South Florida at the minimum is going to have a severe!! rain event in the next few days.
Quoting Dakster:


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.



No, let him go.
Quoting pottery:

Yep, that looks heavy over Jamaica.

Yes it is, there is currently a flash flood warnning in place for the entire island...we are having a very impressive lightning show as well.
Quoting nigel20:

Yes it is, there is currently a flash flood warnning in place for the entire island...we are having a very impressive lightning show as well.

Any idea what the rain-rate is?
Where are the model runs (other than BAMs) on 96L?
96L looks to be a FISH! LOL
Quoting weatherxtreme:
96L looks to be a FISH! LOL

Oscar the Fish ?

Sounds all wrong, somehow....
Quoting weatherxtreme:
96L looks to be a FISH! LOL


Original.


That's what they called Nadine...
Quoting CaribBoy:
Where are the model runs (other than BAMs) on 96L?



Here, I have the runs.

Quoting pottery:

Any idea what the rain-rate is?

We are currently having moderate rainfall, so i would say +1.5 inches per hour.
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



Usually occurs with people of your age.
Quoting nigel20:

We are currently having moderate rainfall, so i would say +1.5 inches per hour.

That will soon add up.....
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



Thanks... fishy fishy :(
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Usually occurs with people of your age.

Yep, the body is failing.
The mind went a long time ago.
Sad, that.
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.


Oh, Im so sorry for you Gro, What'd you eat? Good luck with that...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
This where I saw it.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
This where I saw it.

LOL, thanks !

They must mean 9.9n, but good spotting.
I missed it !
Quoting CosmicEvents:
This where I saw it.

The translation to that is 9.9 N and 29 W
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh, Im so sorry for you Gro, What'd you eat? Good luck with that...
I think he had bologna.
Quoting pottery:

That will soon add up.....

Yeah definitely.

reports of flooding and landslides
Link
Link
Cloudsat of 96L
Rain Rate in/hr. Click pic for loop.
I missed the Ed Sullivan Show playing on here tonight.
Quoting Civicane49:

Hey Civicane! You can how heavy the rain is from the lime green colour over eastern Jamaica.
Quoting Skyepony:
Rain Rate in/hr. Click pic for loop.

Thanks for that.
ESPI is 0.08..

Nadine
Quoting pottery:

Thanks for that.

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.

Quoting Skyepony:

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.


Thanks, but we got 1/2" today, which was good enough.
Nice and gentle.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Civicane! You can how heavy the rain is from the lime green colour over eastern Jamaica.


Yep.

How are you doing today?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I missed the Ed Sullivan Show playing on here tonight.


Well, one good thing. Daylight savings is over so we can stay up another hour.
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep.

How are you doing today?

I've been good. You?
Blob is getting bigger.

Quoting nigel20:

I've been good. You?


I've been good too.
Quoting pottery:

Thanks, but we got 1/2" today, which was good enough.
Nice and gentle.

What are your expectations for the budget presentation tomorrow?
TA13, I see plenty of moisture in the Caribbean and in part of Atlantic. Is the wet MJO back to the Atlantic basin?
Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.
Quoting nigel20:

What are your expectations for the budget presentation tomorrow?

Well, they dropped the 15% VAT on food already.
They have to come with a "sweetener budget" due to all the recent Bacchanal !
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TA13, I see plenty of moisture in the Caribbean and in part of Atlantic. Is the wet MJO back to the Atlantic basin?

Hey Tropics! We are currently under a flash flood warning here in Jamaica, but i'm not sure how much more rain we'll be getting.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.


I might need a boat to get home tomorrow if it does.
675. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Well, they dropped the 15% VAT on food already.
They have to come with a "sweetener budget" due to all the recent Bacchanal !

Lol to that pottery, how have you been?
Had a torrential downpour here today with gusty winds and lightening,first real rain in over 2 weeks.
Quoting DDR:

Lol to that pottery, how have you been?
Had a torrential downpour here today with gusty winds and lightening,first real rain in over 2 weeks.

Keeping out of trouble!
Saw the lightening over you, and watched it drift west.
It's been real dry here too...
677. DDR
Hello Nigel,it looks like raining non-stop in Jamaica?
678. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Keeping out of trouble!
Saw the lightening over you, and watched it drift west.
It's been real dry here too...

Good to know,it was a very nice shower indeed.Yes that lightning was directing overhead.
Sure everybody has seen this car blowing away in the wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wx0ZzLqFUg&featur e=player_embedded
Quoting DDR:
Hello Nigel,it looks like raining non-stop in Jamaica?

Hey DDR! Yes it is...the authorities may very well have to cancels school tomorrow if the rain persist.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MAKES A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 39.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
682. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

Hey DDR! Yes it is...the authorities may very well have to cancels school tomorrow if the rain persist.

Thanks and keep safe i'm off to bed.
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION...
WITH THE BULK OF WHAT REMAINS PIVOTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH AROUND
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND
OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT.
A SLOW BUT STEADY DECAY OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS NADINE ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR AND THE
COLD WAKE THAT THE CYCLONE GENERATED YESTERDAY. FROM 24-72 HOURS...
A MARKED INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATERS COULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING TREND. PROHIBITIVELY HIGH
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS MIGHT RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE STORM...
AND NADINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER...IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A
CYCLONIC LOOP...AND THE SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
230/06. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF NADINE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN NADINE
SLOWING FURTHER AS IT HEADS BACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-
EASTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD TURN EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
MOVING OUT OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE RIGHT...BUT
IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 36.7N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 36.3N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 35.7N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 35.2N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 35.4N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 38.0N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 44.6N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0000Z 50.0N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.UPDATE...
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH FROM CUBA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
GREATLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING, DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES DEPICTED AS HIGH AS 2.3
INCHES, AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MAINLY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST DAY
1 COMBINED QPF OUTPUT FROM HPC IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT STILL PLACES THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN
AN AREA OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL BELIEVE LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1-3 INCHES AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN AREAS WITH
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS
AROUND 4 INCHES FOR THE METRO AREA AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO THE
NORTH.
Quoting DDR:

Thanks and keep safe i'm off to bed.

Will do...have a good night!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Sure everybody has seen this car blowing away in the wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wx0ZzLqFUg&fe atur e=player_embedded


What is that in the center of the picture? Looks like a Helicopter on its side... Best I can come up with is a tow truck on its side.
Hope tonights Blob, stay away from Haiti, they don't need more rain....
Quoting Skyepony:

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.

Nice horse there Skyepony. What kind is it?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida


Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!
693. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.


if its from the blob over hati it may be deleyed the big red blob dosent seem to be moving that much from last night imo
Quoting StAugustineFL:
I had a fair storm here this evening so thought I'd share. The not so very well set up camera is looking east and the garage insulated the sound of most of the thunder to the south and west (right and back from the camera)

Not much rain but it was a bit loud for a spell.


Link
I didn't listen/watch all the way through, but heard enough to realize people who do sound, like put sound on film for TV and movies, would love something like that. Just pieces of it, even. They goes nuts over silly things like a squeaky door. lol Anyway, keep up the good work.

I has been out of town for a few days,a lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,please update me on what we can expect here in South Florida (Miami) from all this moisture,any tropical development??, looking at the models South Florida at the minimum is going to have a significant!!!!!! rain event in the next few days,also some of the models hints some type of development as the moisture blob cross Cuba.
Quoting Grothar:


Well, one good thing. Daylight savings is over so we can stay up another hour.
ummmm....with respect for my elders, daylight savings time ends Sunday Nov. 4, this year. back to lurking..........
There are now 80 days left until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
699. LBAR
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



This unexpectedly made me laugh.
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



In Army survival school we learned that a table spoon of wood ash helps to elevate symptoms of the runs.
Storm speeds out of Japan after injuring dozens
Associated Press – 4 hrs ago


High waves hit a breakwater in Kihocho, Mie prefecture, western Japan Sunday, Sept. 30, 2012. A powerful typhoon is heading to Tokyo after injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic in southern Japan. (AP Photo/Kyodo News) JAPAN OUT, MANDATORY CREDIT, NO LICENSING IN CHINA, FRANCE, HONG KONG, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

TOKYO (AP) — A weakening tropical storm was speeding out of Japan on Monday after bringing gale-strength winds to Tokyo and injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic to the south and west of the capital.

Japan's Meteorological Agency had warned Tokyo residents to stay indoors while Typhoon Jelawat passed Sunday night. The storm then had winds of up to 126 kilometers (78 miles) an hour but weakened to a tropical storm with 108 kph (67 mph) in the morning.

On Sunday, Nagoya city issued an evacuation advisory to more than 50,000 residents because of fear of flooding from a swollen river. A similar advisory was issued for more than 10,000 people in the northern city of Ishinomaki that was hit by last year's tsunami.

The typhoon left 145 people with minor injuries in southern and western Japan, about half of them on the southern island of Okinawa, public broadcaster NHK said. Tens of thousands of homes were without electricity.

Kyodo news agency reported one fatality, a man who was swept away by seawater while fishing in Okinawa.

Dozens of trains were halted in coastal areas around Tokyo and many stores inside the capital closed early Sunday as the storm approached. It is expected to move into the Pacific Ocean early Monday.
Invest 96L is up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

Nadine weakening rapidly...
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2012 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 36:32:00 N Lon : 39:21:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 3.0

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
707. 7544
cuba blob getting bigger hmmmmm

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 16.9N 114.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.6N 115.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Maliksi (998 hPa) located at 17.8N 146.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.6N 142.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.8N 140.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 27.4N 140.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters

Additional Information
=====================

From The Tiyan NWS in Guam... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan Islands

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 1 2012
===================================

Vortex over west central Bay of Bengal centered within half a degree of latitude 14.5N 83.0E. Associated broken low/medium cloud with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 16.5N west of 87.0E and off Andra Pradesh coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #89
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Around Kirils

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 44.0N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 48.2N 168.9E - Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Kurils
709. VR46L
96L when it came off Africa looked really impressive not so much now

Link
Hopefully this works click on Image and see the clip
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 39.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE
GENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS.
THESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT
WAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY
AGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF
ABOUT 40 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT
IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 36.3N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.6N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 35.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 34.9N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 35.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 38.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 46.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0600Z 50.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Good Morning folks!..rain chances going up this week....
Hurricane Season Still in Effect
On a more serious note, the beginning of astronomical fall means that
for Florida the hurricane season is still very much alive. In fact, a
somewhat unknown fact is that the historical median date for South
Florida hurricane strikes is September 21. This means that half of the
hurricanes which have directly struck South Florida occurred before that
date and half occurred after.
Also, the month of most direct hurricane strikes for South Florida is
October. A total of 19 hurricanes have hit South Florida since the late
1800s, compared to 15 in September and 11 in August.
714. VR46L
Nadine ...Still alive
Loop is embedded in the image click to view
Link
Good morning or evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 60 degrees in my part of Louisiana. I didn't want to come out from under the covers this morning, could have easily slept a couple more hours in this cooler temp.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning or evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 60 degrees in my part of Louisiana. I didn't want to come out from under the covers this morning, could have easily slept a couple more hours in this cooler temp.

Hi, it's evening here.
Did you see Nadine weakening rapidly? Surely she can do whatever she wants.
Good morning everyone, I think it is safe to say Nadine is weakening for good.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi, it's evening here.
Did you see Nadine weakening rapidly? Surely she can do whatever she wants.


Nadine has been amazing to watch, hurricane, not hurricane, hurricane, not hurricane... She's had a great run and the best part has been being able to watch her and know she's not hurting people, though the Azores have sure had their fair share and more of her.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....

that is because it does not exist. only 90N which is the north pole
blog is dead. see yall when Nadine dies in 350 years.
I wrote a special blog on Nadine and the 4 longest lived Atlantic hurricanes ahead of her, check it out!
Good morning. GFS and ECMWF develop 96L into a TD/Weak Tropical Storm.



The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning GFS and ECMWF develop 96L into a TD/Weak Tropical Storm.



Development of 96L is getting a little more likely and the NHC said that it has a favorable environment for gradual development ahead. If 96L becomes Oscar it will probably go out to sea and probably won't turn into a major system.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!

Have a great Monday too, hopefully this great weather can last all week.
Also happy water new year!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!

There's nothing about Monday's to be exited about.

Sigh...

At least I have Friday off again.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


4 more years of this economic quagmire?
We'll all be "Walking Dead" by then!
R & R may not be the answer, but for darn sure it isn't the guy who's in there now.

Doug. Please take the goofy politics and off-topic stuff to another blog. Or, here's an idea: make your own blog. Sound good?

Thanks!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's nothing about Monday's to be exited about.

Sigh...

At least I have Friday off again.

That's unfair, I wish I had Friday off. It is the water new year so but that doesn't mean much. Monday is one day closer to the weekend.
96L is up to Code Orange, 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
732. VR46L
Hmmm Possible clouds of interest in the Caribbean

Link
96L is up to 30%, slowly getting there.


1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


fInally some showers around..........
736. beell
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Doug. Please take the goofy politics and off-topic stuff to another blog. Or, here's an idea: make your own blog. Sound good?

Thanks!


You need to include one other person in that timely advice. Sound good? Thanks!

Short term memory loss?

Me thought that was the Romney Campaign Slogan ?
GFS at 48 hours,some heavy rain coming south florida....
..........GFS at 192 hours, something in the pacific once again by mexico
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
plenty of heavy thunderstorms in the western carib.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 615 AM CDT

* AT 519 AM CDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 MILES WEST OF NEW BROCKTON...OR NEAR
DAMASCUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WOODLAND GROVE CHURCH...CAMP HUMMING HILLS...TABERNACLE...MIXONS
CROSSROADS...ARCUS...LOWRY MILL...EANON...VICTORIA...NEW HOPE...
JAVA...CHESTNUT GROVE...FRISCO...CLOWERS CROSSROADS AND ROETON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.
744. VR46L
Quoting beell:


You need to include one other person in that timely advice. Sound good? Thanks!

Short term memory loss?

Me thought that was the Romney Campaign Slogan ?


Apparently its okay to discuss politics now... unreal
Quoting cellman007:


Why? Because it's not your type of politics? Several others on this blog are alot guiltier than him about being political. How about asking them to take it some where else?


Actually, no. Doug's political views are a lot more in line with mine than Patrap's out in left field radical socialism. Believe me. I am conservative myself. But let's tone that stuff down. That's the equivalent of me coming on here and bashing Pat for his crappy absolutely pathetic Saints team (0-4 now) but I won't do that here.

But let's just keep Master's blog on topic. All I'm asking, Bud.
There is already area being monitored for a watch( even though there most likely won't be a watch) in the south but the real activity will get going later today.


Mesoscale discussion #2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Quoting beell:


You need to include one other person in that timely advice. Sound good? Thanks!

Short term memory loss?

Me thought that was the Romney Campaign Slogan ?


You're right. I should have included the other culprits/instigators on the other side that infest this blog with their silly, liberal political mumbo-jumbo.
GOES-13/14 Update....

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 1, 2012 1545 UTC


Date/Time of Expected End: October 1, 2012 1609 UTC (maneuver);
Drift will
continue eastward at 0.90 degrees per day


Length of Outage: See table in detail.


Details/Specifics of Change: In order to support users with better data
during the ongoing GOES-13 anomaly recovery, a GOES-14 East Drift Start
Maneuver will be performed today, Monday, October 1, 2012, at 1545 UTC.
GOES-14 is currently positioned at 105 degrees west, and upon the
maneuver, the eastward longitudinal drift will be initiated.
GOES-14 will
drift 0.90 degrees per day to the East towards the location of
GOES-13 at
75 degrees West.


Final location of GOES-14 is dependent upon the ongoing recovery of
GOES-13. During this transition, direct readout users can continue to
receive GOES-14 data via the GOES-13 GVAR broadcast stream from
75 degrees
West, and will not have to repoint their antennas to GOES-14. GOES-13
imager and sounder remain out of service at this time.


Location of frame boundaries of the satellite scanning sectors will be
adjusted every Wednesday at the 1900 UTC housekeeping period.
This will
cause a one time shift in the image and sounding frames each Wednesday.
GINI and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure optimal
coverage of
the CONUS for users of AWIPS and of the SATEPSDIST servers within ESPC.
Image Navigation and Registration (INR) is expected to remain within
specification during this drift period. For NWS operations, during this
time period, RSO (Rapid Scan Operations) will be available. No SRSO
(Super
Rapid Scan Operations) will be available.


On October 1, 2012 the following schedule will be employed to support
maneuver operations:


GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver Schedule begins at 1545 UTC on
October 1,
2012.


>From 1545 UTC through 1606 UTC -- GOES-14 No Scan Operations


There will be no GOES-15 (GOES-West) Full Disk (30 minute) Imaging.


There will be no recovery schedule for this maneuver.


1609 UTC -- GOES-14 Routine Scan Operations Resume.


Please note: Since post-maneuver attitude performance is expected to be
nominal, a special recovery schedule is not required, and the
6-hour INR
(Image Navigation Registration) recovery period will be supported by
Routine schedule.
Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.

Will take a few days, but it should become better.
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER. BOTH OF THESE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...WHILE MICHAEL
BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THESE
TOTALS WERE BELOW THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (1981 TO 2010) OF FOUR
NAMED STORMS AND NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES OF TWO TO THREE
HURRICANES AND ONE OR TWO MAJOR HURRICANES.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML
Are we allowed to talk about Politics on here?
Didn't they add an extra rule to stop it from happening.

Rule 11: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
So did Nadine make it past 19.5 days yet?

Looks like a very broad circular motion around the Cuba blob. Plenty of thunderheads rising in the middle.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Will take a few days, but it should become better.

Yup, I am happy that the Atlantic isn't in the dark anymore.
Quoting AussieStorm:
GOES-13/14 Update....

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 1, 2012 1545 UTC


Date/Time of Expected End: October 1, 2012 1609 UTC (maneuver);
Drift will
continue eastward at 0.90 degrees per day


Length of Outage: See table in detail.


Details/Specifics of Change: In order to support users with better data
during the ongoing GOES-13 anomaly recovery, a GOES-14 East Drift Start
Maneuver will be performed today, Monday, October 1, 2012, at 1545 UTC.
GOES-14 is currently positioned at 105 degrees west, and upon the
maneuver, the eastward longitudinal drift will be initiated.
GOES-14 will
drift 0.90 degrees per day to the East towards the location of
GOES-13 at
75 degrees West.


Final location of GOES-14 is dependent upon the ongoing recovery of
GOES-13. During this transition, direct readout users can continue to
receive GOES-14 data via the GOES-13 GVAR broadcast stream from
75 degrees
West, and will not have to repoint their antennas to GOES-14. GOES-13
imager and sounder remain out of service at this time.


Location of frame boundaries of the satellite scanning sectors will be
adjusted every Wednesday at the 1900 UTC housekeeping period.
This will
cause a one time shift in the image and sounding frames each Wednesday.
GINI and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure optimal
coverage of
the CONUS for users of AWIPS and of the SATEPSDIST servers within ESPC.
Image Navigation and Registration (INR) is expected to remain within
specification during this drift period. For NWS operations, during this
time period, RSO (Rapid Scan Operations) will be available. No SRSO
(Super
Rapid Scan Operations) will be available.


On October 1, 2012 the following schedule will be employed to support
maneuver operations:


GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver Schedule begins at 1545 UTC on
October 1,
2012.


>From 1545 UTC through 1606 UTC -- GOES-14 No Scan Operations


There will be no GOES-15 (GOES-West) Full Disk (30 minute) Imaging.


There will be no recovery schedule for this maneuver.


1609 UTC -- GOES-14 Routine Scan Operations Resume.


Please note: Since post-maneuver attitude performance is expected to be
nominal, a special recovery schedule is not required, and the
6-hour INR
(Image Navigation Registration) recovery period will be supported by
Routine schedule.


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?
Is GOES 13 permanently shut down? Can our rocket surgeons bring it back to life?
Is 14 leaving an image gap?
Quoting Slamguitar:


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?

It is good to be returning to a more normal state over the next week. I think this is scheduled as 96L is moving closer to that satellite anyway.
Quoting biff4ugo:
So did Nadine make it past 19.5 days yet?

Looks like a very broad circular motion around the Cuba blob. Plenty of thunderheads rising in the middle.


Nadine has lived about 20 days and still has a few more to live.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Quoting Slamguitar:


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?

Are they going to try and recover GOES-13 or just send it out into space?
This morning's conversation:

-"This was a great site until those libs took over this blog to the point it seems to rarely be about tropical weather discussions anymore."

--"You're right. We don't need to talk about those types here with their out in left field radical socialism. No politics. Let's talk about tropical weather."

--"For sure. Political talk leads nowhere--especially when it's all those scumbag lefties who have infested the blog and taken over like crabgrass or Dandelions in lush, green grass."

--"I agree. I have nothing to say about politics here. I just know that we don't need 4 more years of this economic quagmire. We'll all be 'Walking Dead' by then."

--"Yes. Look how those libs have come on this morning and ruined the blog with their political speech."

You guys are too much, I tell you. Too much. But thanks, as always, for the morning laughs! ;-)

P.S.: Nadine is back to a tropical storm. Again:

AL, 14, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 360N, 393W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1020, 250, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Quoting Neapolitan:
This morning's conversation:

* The temporary(?) replacement of GOES-13 with GOES-14
* Nadine still there
WU blog should be placed under "Fight Club" in the dictionary..the first rule of Fight Club is not to talk about fight club..same should be applied here for politics as well..First rule of WU is not to talk about politics and its always the "Usual Suspects" who bring it up..."The Expendable" of talking politics should be an automatic ban no matter who you are..If I "total recall" it well, it use to be but now all that has changed..One day, an "Avenger" will save this blog and turn it back to a weather blog.

See you guys later..have a great day!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.


Starting to sound like the permanent solution is going to be a new satellite...
Thanks, Looks like Nadine is set up to take the record and then some.

Hope Dr. M. Give a bye-bye 13 tribute. Is there a best of GOES 13 photo gallery?
Quoting Dakster:


Starting to sound like the permanent solution is going to be a new satellite...


They never should of labeled it "13".
The admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going to have to suck it up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going to have to suck it up.


Rule 11: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).
Well I think it might be safe to say it will be the official end to the growing season by this time next week for much of the Midwest, Central Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley...

Quoting TomballTXPride:
Well I think it might be safe to say it will be the official end to the growing season by this time next week for much of the Midwest, Central Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley...

Now if only that could move closer over here...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The
admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion
is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going
to have to suck it up.

I think this statement made folks feel entitled to spew both views, surely there is enough of that on TV and radio. Missing the insightful and entertaining Weather discussions.  Cool and not our usual Weather here in the Houston area.
area is nw carib seems to be more circular than yesterday
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now if only that could move closer over here...


You will have your winter this year, Wash. I truly feel this will be your year of a massive 18-24 inch snowfall followed by a three week arctic plunge of air that will keep your temperatures at or near 0 degrees for the low.

You will enjoy this winter.
12z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 118N, 322W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting TomballTXPride:


You will have your winter this year, Wash. I truly feel this will be your year of a massive 18-24 inch snowfall followed by a three week arctic plunge of air that will keep your temperatures at or near 0 degrees for the low.

You will enjoy this winter.
I'm crossing fingers here.Me and the kiddies want to build a family of snow men.My father did it with me and my siblings when we were growing up everytime we had a big snow event.The memories!.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
786:

Bird. You should learn to pick your battles. You let that bother you. Really? How about the endless banter and nonsense certain bloggers post on here attempting miserably to equate every single weather event to fulfill their global warming agenda. If there is anything that should get under your frail skin, it should be that. Let it go, Bud.
I really don't think that's the real baltimorebirds...
Quoting aussiecold:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).


go to facebook or myspace with your garbage comments!!!!
??
A lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,anybody thinks that we will have some type of tropical development from all this moisture??, looking at the models South Florida at the minimum is going to have a significant!!!!!! rain event in the next few days,also some of the models hints some type of development as the moisture blob cross Cuba.We can almost see a faint hint of some rotations in the clouds south of Cuba.Any comments? anybody else is seeing this?.
Miami NWS Disco

THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL AREA WIDE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE LOW TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
Quoting aussiecold:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).


go to facebook or myspace with your garbage comments!!!!


That's uncalled for, he's simply asking a relevant question.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Hey, Bird. You sound like a Raven. A loud, obnoxious, bird eating and feeding voraciously off other bloggers through ridicule and mockery to get yourself off. Isn't Baltimore home off the Ravens?

Might I suggest another occupation. Or perhaps You should get off the blog...


Your doing what they want, don't bite, just and Ignore User.

Nadine did an all right upside-down inside-out drawing of the Australian mainland.



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL AREA WIDE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE LOW TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
This statement form the NWS is kind of odd?,looking at the Satellite presentation it seems like the moisture to our South is growing!! and the blob is getting bigger?so will see what happens in the next few days.
Anyways, welcome to October all!
Off topic but also very cool. This is what we as a planet sound like out in Space.

NASA Spacecraft Records 'Earthsong'.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyways, welcome to October all!

Your a bit late it's almost October 2 here.
How are ya Cybr. How is your part of this little blue planet 3rd from the sun?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Your a bit late it's almost October 2 here.
How are ya Cybr. How is your part of this little blue planet 3rd from the sun?


Too hot, way too hot.


G-3 storm from sun, but subsiding now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Too hot, way too hot.

Really, I thought your into Autumn there now which means it should be cooling down?
October is usually one of our wettest months here for us.So I'm waiting to see what we get this month.We still have a 6" deficit here but we're making progress on erasing it fo' sho'(as Pat says).
Quoting AussieStorm:

Really, I thought your into Autumn there now which means it should be cooling down?


Yea, it starts cooling down from 95 degrees to 89 degrees ;)

It does get cold here, but not usually in October. Lowest we usually see is 39.
691. weatherbro 11:08 PM EDT on September 30, 2012

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida

Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!

You better be right this time weatherbro!!!

Down into the mid to upper 50s here in SE TX this morning.
806. 7544
Quoting Hurricane1956:
This statement form the NWS is kind of odd?,looking at the Satellite presentation it seems like the moisture to our South is growing!! and the blob is getting bigger?so will see what happens in the next few days.


agree and its all going from south to north over fl today looks like a afternoon rain event setting up into wends for now unless the blob decides to from into something else either way fl is on the target stay tuned
Quoting RitaEvac:
Down into the mid to upper 50s here in SE TX this morning.
We got into the mid 40's around here(well in the suburb).Here in town we got into the low 50's.
Yesterday evening it was gusty like it was all day and started getting moderate mist along with the wind and dark low and mid level clouds racing from the north typical behind cold fronts, and it was 67 degress, felt down right wintry....
810. etxwx
Good morning all...nice and cool here in East Texas (60F) this morning as well. And 3" of rain total in the rain gauge. Life is good.

In today's news this is an interesting concept for urban areas:

More special bricks in Beijing to absorb water
2012-09-30 18:00 (Xinhua)

BEIJING - The Chinese capital plans to lay more water-absorbing bricks this year in the urban area to conserve rainwater and alleviate the so-called "heat island effect" meanwhile.

"Compared with roads paved with cement, rainwater goes down to the earth more easily through such bricks," said Wang Hao, an academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

He said such bricks will help to alleviate flooding during the rainy season, save water for the sunny days, as well as moderate the "heat island effect", referring to the phenomenon that temperatures are often a few degrees higher in cities than they are in their surrounding rural areas.

According to the Beijing Water Authority, 150,000 square meters of water-absorbing bricks will be laid this year. These bricks will join around 1 million square meters of such bricks already laid in the city..

Wang Hao said that water-absorbing bricks could retain at least 40 percent of the rainwater, instead of letting nearly all of them flow away through the drainage system.

"In sunny days, the water retained this way could cool the temperature on the ground in the process of evaporation," he said.

Water-absorbing bricks, which cost 30 yuan to 100 yuan per square meter, have been used on sidewalks, in parks, campuses, and some residential areas of Beijing.

Qin Shengyi, chairman of the Beijing-based Rechsand Science and Technology Group, said the company has developed a brick that could retain 80 percent of the rainwater, using sand from deserts as the key raw material.

Qin said the company sells millions of square meters of water-absorbing bricks each year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, it starts cooling down from 95 degrees to 89 degrees ;)

It does get cold here, but not usually in October. Lowest we usually see is 39.
39 degrees? When was that record set Teddy?
Quoting aussiecold:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).


go to facebook or myspace with your garbage comments!!!!



I thought personal attacks we not allowed in Dr Master's blog? Your comment sure sounds like a personal attack.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
39 degrees? When was that record set Teddy?


It's rare, but looking back it's gotten as low as 32 degrees in October back in the 80s.


A nice cool day here in Cayman,heavy rain this morning from the blob currently over us,looks like it is hanging about for a while...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's rare, but looking back it's gotten as low as 32 degrees in October back in the 80s.
Oh yes I heard the 80s was cold, in '89 the bird bath froze around here. And my mom was telling me there was some bad snow storms in NY.
When metal like door knobs outside are cool/cold to the touch and even touching the brick on the house is cool, you know it's a cold front down here on the coast in SE TX. Any other time that stuff is burning hot to the touch. Can't believe temps only in the 60s can be that cool...guess that's what happens when you're used to 100 degrees for months on end.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh yes I heard the 80s was cold, in '89 the bird bath froze around here. And my mom was telling me there was some bad snow storms in NY.
The 80's were a cold period for Florida.I remember seeing some photos in my local news papers of the cold.It even snowed a good bit in some parts!!.
Just remember, if you think Hurricane season is dead..the most intense hurricane to ever form in the atlantic did it in October..W...l..L..M..AAAAAA!

820. etxwx
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yesterday evening it was gusty like it was all day and started getting moderate mist along with the wind and dark low and mid level clouds racing from the north typical behind cold fronts, and it was 67 degress, felt down right wintry....


It does seem like forever since we've seen that type of weather, doesn't it? It seemed a bit foreign to have the misty rain, cool temps, and low clouds hanging over the pines. I'm not a fan of cold weather, but it was sort of soothing after the heat and dryness of the summer.
Quoting ncstorm:
Just remember, if you think Hurricane season is dead..the most intense hurricane to ever form in the atlantic did it in October..W...l..L..M..AAAAAA!

I remember waking up that morning only to find a monster on the news.There is a chance the pressure was even lower than that!.I just couldn't believe it.Once in a life time storm that's for sure.
822. txjac
Quoting RitaEvac:
Down into the mid to upper 50s here in SE TX this morning.


And it feels awesome ...loving every minute of it!
Surface Based Cape Expanding over alabama, daytime heating setting in, hopefully this spreads into GA so we get in on the action this afternoon.



Go sunshine.
Just saw a 73/68 dewpoint to temp reading in alabama with little heating, which means profiles arent as saturated already with only 2 hrs of heating. This bodes well for severe wx chances if a storm can fire this afternoon.
Quoting etxwx:


It does seem like forever since we've seen that type of weather, doesn't it? It seemed a bit foreign to have the misty rain, cool temps, and low clouds hanging over the pines. I'm not a fan of cold weather, but it was sort of soothing after the heat and dryness of the summer.


Grass already greener, it's relief on vegetation. In fact gotta mow either today or tomm.
Only 1.45" total for Friday and Saturday. Not what I was expecting, expected much more, but didn't pan out. Looked like all the heavy totals went north and south of the Houston/Galveston area.
Quoting 7544:


agree and its all going from south to north over fl today looks like a afternoon rain event setting up into wends for now unless the blob decides to from into something else either way fl is on the target stay tuned
Agreed!,the blob is growing in size,and this is the area this time of the year that we should be looking for some type of development,I don't think a Hurricane but it could be a Tropical depression or at the minimum very windy!! and rainy for South Florida.
It's a shame that people on blog this morning!! are not talking about this weather event in the Caribbean or posting the models as they usually do (the blog has become boring!! a blog of politics, failing satellites etc, it was my opinion for many years that this was a Tropical discussion Blog),but as you said in you comments we'll see what happens?.
A weakening tropical storm was speeding out of Japan on Monday after bringing gale-strength winds to Tokyo and injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic to the south and west of the capital. Japan's Meteorological Agency had warned Tokyo residents to stay indoors while Typhoon Jelawat passed Sunday night. The storm then had winds of up to 126 kilometers (78 miles) an hour but weakened to a tropical storm with 108 kph (67 mph) in the morning. On Sunday, Nagoya city issued an evacuation advisory to more than 50,000 residents because of fear of flooding from a swollen river. A similar advisory was issued for more than 10,000 people in the northern city of Ishinomaki that was hit by last year's tsunami. The typhoon left 145 people with minor injuries in southern and western Japan, about half of them on the southern island of Okinawa, public broadcaster NHK said. Tens of thousands of homes were without electricity. Kyodo news agency reported one fatality, a man who was swept away by seawater while fishing in Okinawa. Dozens of trains were halted in coastal areas around Tokyo and many stores inside the capital closed early Sunday as the storm approached. It is expected to move into the Pacific Ocean early Monday.
Quoting etxwx:


It does seem like forever since we've seen that type of weather, doesn't it? It seemed a bit foreign to have the misty rain, cool temps, and low clouds hanging over the pines. I'm not a fan of cold weather, but it was sort of soothing after the heat and dryness of the summer.


Morning all. I love the first few cold fronts of the fall season down here. We pulled in about an inch and a half of much needed steady rain over the weekend in my area with widespread 2+ all around. Highs in the low 80s expected this week so I'll take that. Quite a contrast to the 100+ temps out in the west this week.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Off topic but also very cool. This is what we as a planet sound like out in Space.

NASA Spacecraft Records 'Earthsong'.
Well, maybe they are in a way related to GOES-13. Notation on that video:
A NASA spacecraft has recorded eerie-sounding radio emissions coming from our own planet. These beautiful "songs of Earth" could, ironically, be responsible for the proliferation of deadly electrons in the Van Allen Belts.

This NASA video explains a little more about the Van Allen radiation belts and the two probes that picked up the "Earth Song" you posted, for those like me who don't often keep up with this stuff.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Down into the mid to upper 50s here in SE TX this morning.
send some of that over here rita please
Looking ahead to days 8-14, it appears to remain well below average temperature-wise for the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Mid-Mississippi Valley region.



Even the one month temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center now is aboard the long range projection that temperature across much of the central CONUS will remain slightly below average climatologically.

Dense cloud cover and rains will be welcomed across much of the drought stricken region of Southern Illinois and Missouri.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
STORMS MAY DROP HEAVY RAINS WHEN PASSING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE MORE THAN ONE
ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN
TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Quoting quasistationary:


Link
Thank you for the link very informative!!.
An area of disturbed weather still persists over the Caribbean IVO Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. This thunderstorm activity is associated with an upper level low situated over the Gulf of Honduras, and is being enhanced by diffluence aloft, aiding in weak upper level divergence.
Albeit wind shear values are low at the moment, shear is forecast to increase in about 18 hours. I am not really expecting any development of this area, however forecast steering indicates this activity could be steered N to NNE where upper level winds will become marginal right off the SEUS coastal area. I will monitor this in case the chance exists for coastal development, although I believe the chance is low at the moment.
The Texas hurricane season gradually wanes throughout the month of October, with some folks even thinking it's virtually over. It may be true that the chances decrease for development or a landfall for a cyclone.

However, the official end of the season extends to the end of November so anything is possible until then or perhaps even beyond. Can't let guards down yet...

Quoting TomballTXPride:
The Texas hurricane season gradually wanes throughout the month of October, with some folks even thinking it's virtually over. It may be true that the chances decrease for development or a landfall for a cyclone.

However, the official end of the season extends to the end of November so anything is possible until then or perhaps even beyond. Can't let guards down yet...

October can be dangerous for South florida,have to watch the gulf very closely this month.
Warming up nicely here in Southeast Georgia. Its going to feel like a nice summer day that is until the rain arrives =)

Millen, GA
Temp:80
Feels Like:80
Dewpoint:73
Humidity:83%
Pressure:28.91
Winds:SSE 7MPH

Nadine downgraded.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT NEARS THE COMPLETION OF YET ANOTHER LOOP...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 39.2W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AZORES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN




TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS
ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING
NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.

NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW.
THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED
BEFORE THAT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...
NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN
FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 34.9N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 34.9N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 35.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 47.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
Quoting ncstorm:
Just remember, if you think Hurricane season is dead..the most intense hurricane to ever form in the atlantic did it in October..W...l..L..M..AAAAAA!



Also remember this one...

Hurricane Tomas.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
The Texas hurricane season gradually wanes throughout the month of October, with some folks even thinking it's virtually over. It may be true that the chances decrease for development or a landfall for a cyclone.

However, the official end of the season extends to the end of November so anything is possible until then or perhaps even beyond. Can't let guards down yet...


Umm... it doesn't "gradually wane" through October. It shuts off in late September for TX. In recorded history, there have been THREE hurricane impacts in TX after Sept 24. For a storm to hit TX, it has to come during a period that lacks any frontal systems/troughs over a 5-6 day period. After late-September, that is nigh impossible (the fronts don't even have to get all the way to the coast - just getting into the southern plains is enough to push a storm NE).

Now, I'm not saying the threat is over... but the threat to TX is effectively over.
Quoting gaweatherboi:
Warming up nicely here in Southeast Georgia. Its going to feel like a nice summer day that is until the rain arrives =)

Millen, GA
Temp:80
Feels Like:80
Dewpoint:73
Humidity:83%
Pressure:28.91
Winds:SSE 7MPH



Looks like a line of storms will be coming through your area today. Hopefully it gets there before that heat index starts climbing :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-012115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
513 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND GRADUALLY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR FLOODING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA



Quoting RitaEvac:
Only 1.45" total for Friday and Saturday. Not what I was expecting, expected much more, but didn't pan out. Looked like all the heavy totals went north and south of the Houston/Galveston area.

1.7" here, but we got lucky and had a cell open up on us as it died.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I agree with you. They have infested this blog and taken it over with their radical, liberal propaganda like crabgrass or Dandelions in lush, green grass.

But just trying to be fair to both sides. I don't want to hear Patrap's and Neapolitan's extreme left-wing agenda anymore than anyone else. But asking them to take it some where else without asking Doug to do the same would be unfair.

My last comment on this. Back to tropical weather.




Pat went first.

Nuff said.

Fresca?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Pat went first.

Nuff said.

Fresca?


No thanks. That's for Wussy's, Doug. I'll stick with beer.

Thanks for the offer though!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
691. weatherbro 11:08 PM EDT on September 30, 2012

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida

Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!

You better be right this time weatherbro!!!



Well last time the Bermuda Ridge was stronger, causing the long wave trough axis to settle too far west to bring a front through your area. Next week the North Atlantic Ridge should be weaker and further east to enable even South Florida to get a taste of Fall!
10N 48W whats going on there?