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January 2013 Earth's 9th warmest on record; Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:33 PM GMT on February 22, 2013

January 2013 was the globe's 9th warmest January since records began in 1880, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. January 2013 global land temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 8th warmest on record. January 2013 was the 335th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average and the 37th straight warmer-than-average January. The last time Earth had a below-average January global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985, so no one under the age of 28 has ever seen a month with below-average global temperatures. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 2nd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during January 2013 was the sixth largest on record for the month, and marked the sixth consecutive January with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January 2013 in his January 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. The most extreme weather on the planet in January occurred in Australia, where the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature was the highest ever recorded. Australia also suffered record rains and flooding along the east coast due to the remains of Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Damage from the flooding totaled $2.5 billion, according to AON Benfield. One other billion-dollar weather disaster occurred in January--flooding in Indonesia that cost $3.3 billion and took 41 lives. As much as 300 millimeters (12 inches) of precipitation fell over a two-week period.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2013, the 9th warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Colder than average conditions occurred in the Western U.S., northern Canada, and northern Russia. The Southern Hemisphere was record warm over land for the second month in a row, with record high monthly temperatures observed over northeastern Brazil, much of southern Africa, and northern and central Australia. No land areas in the Southern Hemisphere were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .


Figure 2. Central Jakarta, Indonesia flooded following a heavy rain on Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013. Damage to Jakarta and surrounding areas was estimated at $3.3 billion. Image credit: AP.


Figure 3. In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service a wildfire near Deans Gap, Australia, crosses the Princes Highway Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013. (AP Photo/NSW Rural Fire Service, James Morris)

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the Pacific
For the 10th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during January 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through spring. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.3°C below average as of February 18, and have ranged from 0.3 - 0.6°C below average during 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January reached its sixth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 19th consecutive January and 140th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen the ten lowest January extents in the satellite record.



Figure 4. Ice fractures in the Arctic sea ice off the coast of Alaska, as seen by the AVHRR instrument on NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite on February 21, 2013. As discussed at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, these sort of fractures are due to the thin first-year ice not being able to withstand the stresses put on the ice pack by strong winds. In previous winters when thick, multi-year ice abounded, these sort of fractures were much less common. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Haruna hit southwest Madagascar at 00 UTC Friday, February 22, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Haruna was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall so far in 2013, globally. Haruna is being blamed for one death so far, and will bring torrential rains and dangerous flooding to southern Madagascar over the weekend.


Figure 5. Tropical Cyclone Haruna over Madagascar at 11:05 UTC February 22, 2013. At the time, Haruna was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Japan sets snow depth record
Incredible snows fell in Japan this week, bringing the amount of snow on the ground to an astonishing 5.15 meters (16.9') at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt details the record in his post, Record Snow Depth (for an official site) Measured in Japan.

Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a post well-worth reading, Should We Just Adapt to Climate Change?

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting wxchaser97:
I am extremely happy that Johnson, my favorite driver since he started racing cup, has won the Daytona 500! Never rained there luckily.

A severe thunderstorm is just ESE of Tallahassee, FL.

My favorite driver made an excellent move at the end to finish 2nd... Go Dale Jr.!
And lucky! I want a winter storm
1002. Grothar
Intense!


New microwave imagery is revealing that Rusty actually is not particularly well organized right now:



Eye has become more obscured on satellite, I wouldn't expect it to fully clear out until the storm builds in an E/SE eyewall, which will be tough with so much land right next to it. Clearly convection is much stronger on the side of the storm out over open water than the side impacting Australia:

1004. Grothar


Category 4 in 48 hours..
1006. ncstorm
1007. ncstorm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242149Z - 242315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS.

DISCUSSION...SPLITTING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR WITHIN
A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE NERN GULF. THIS FLARE UP APPEARS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH A POCKET OF COMPARATIVELY
RICHER LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE ANALYZED IN OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH
MUCAPE IS LIKELY MEAGER...AROUND 250-500 J/KG...MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLYS
INCREASING THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SAMPLED IN TLH/EVX VWP
DATA...WILL FAVOR TRANSIENT RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH
TIME...INCREASING AMALGAMATION OF CORES MAY TEMPER THE THREAT.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/24/2013


ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30538288 30258260 29768266 29398286 29418331 29628517
30378641 30648525 30538288
Quoting wxchaser97:
I am extremely happy that Johnson, my favorite driver since he started racing cup, has won the Daytona 500! Never rained there luckily.

A severe thunderstorm is just ESE of Tallahassee, FL.


I HATE Johnson
1009. ncstorm
tomorrow..

1010. ncstorm
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, Feb. 25

Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in east TX, LA, central and south MS, south half AL, south GA, FL panhandle, and spreading overnight into south SC and east-central GA. TOR:CON - 4 east-central MS, south half AL, southwest GA; 3 rest of above area. Heavy rain also in TN, north MS, north AL, north and central GA.
Tuesday, Feb. 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms in east NC, east SC, southeast VA. TOR:CON - 4 east NC, east SC; 3 southeast VA. A lower chance of a damaging gust in the FL peninsula. TOR:CON - 2 or less.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Latest update is out.

This is a 70 mph tropical storm, can't you tell?



Yes I can.....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The amount of organization that has occurred with Rusty over the past few hours borders on absolute ridiculousness. The system went from looking disorganized to a system with a developing, clearing eye with very cold cloudtops in the eyewall just like 'that'.

The system is probably already a high-end Category 2 equivalent:




No it didn't/ No it isn't...

I still think it will RI.... 917mb is almost believable....i'd say 920 - 940mb.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Yes I can.....




No it didn't/ No it isn't...

I still think it will RI.... 917mb is almost believable....i'd say 940mb.

12:32



19:32



I know the eye has become more obscured lately because of the huge burst of convection in the western semicircle, but that doesn't take away how quick this system organized.
Quoting Doppler22:

My favorite driver made an excellent move at the end to finish 2nd... Go Dale Jr.!
And lucky! I want a winter storm


I HATE Dale Jr
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

12:32



19:32



I know the eye has become more obscured lately because of the huge burst of convection in the western semicircle, but that doesn't take away how quick this system organized.


I never disagreed with that.

However, I'm not sure that was the true eye, rather than just the center not being obscured by convection yet. And it's wasn't a cat 2 back then... It clearly is organizing very rapidly.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I never disagreed with that.

However, I'm not sure that was the true eye, rather than just the center not being obscured by convection yet. And it's wasn't a cat 2 back then... It clearly is organizing very rapidly.

That was definitely the true eye earlier, it's still easy to pick out now, just obscured by convection as TA13 said. Still, the lack of an eyewall on the E and SE sides is a problem.
1016. Grothar
Is Rusty a Cat 2 now?
1 week flurries as far S as florida:
1018. Grothar
Not really impressed with tomorrow's severe weather setup.

Marginal instability:



Limited low-level wind shear:



Brief tornadoes still looking possible however judging by hodographs:

2013FEB24 193200 3.4 985.4/ +0.0 / 53.0 3.4 3.7 7.2 0.5T/hour EYE
2013FEB24 203200 3.5 984.3/ +0.3 / 55.0 3.5 3.4 4.0 0.7T/6hr UNIFRM
2013FEB24 213200 3.5 984.7/ +0.7 / 55.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT UNIFRM

Dvorak is certain to be around 3.5 to 4.0, for now
Tampa flurries? Ocean effect snow?
Most precip stays off shore but glancing blows of precip move over the florida coast per the GFS in 1 week. shows it cold enough for flurries at night from the panhandle, even to tampa bay...(though I doubt it will happen)



img src="">
Just had a big thunderstorm with hail and I got some photos! I seem to be really unlucky with not getting to see hail case its been about 4 or 5 years since I last saw it even though I've been in many cells that have warnings for large hail. I got pictures and will post later!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That was definitely the true eye earlier, it's still easy to pick out now, just obscured by convection as TA13 said. Still, the lack of an eyewall on the E and SE sides is a problem.


Yeah...I meant it was the eye, but without an eyewall.
just basically an exposed center.

It's getting there quick though..
Surprisingly, the downdrafts were also pretty strong and even some cloud to ground lightning despite that the cells are elevated!
Port Hedland looks like it will be on the bad side of TC Rusty. I wonder when they'll start to evacuate the place.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Port Hedland looks like it will be on the bad side of TC Rusty. I wonder when they'll start to evacuate the place.



hi Aussie

Apparently by 6pm tomorrow, the cold air dam will be as strong as ever here....NAM 4km says 39F and rain...(which probably is overdone, the NAM keeps even central alabama in the low 40s)

It was 65F at my house today...bye bye 60s... for a long time.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hi Aussie


Hey. TC Rusty sure came together quickly.
I guess this has something to do with it.
Rusty would probably be retired as Australia tends to retire every storm that makes landfall.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC065-073-242315-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0029.130224T2236Z-130224T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
536 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EST

* AT 532 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO...OR NEAR
BAUM...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LLOYD...CONCORD...MICCOSUKEE...LAKE MICCOSUKEE...FESTUS...NASH...
LOIS...JARROTT...DRIFTON...CASA BLANCO...MONTIVILLA AND ALMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8387 3046 8381 3037 8416 3054 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 253DEG 35KT 3049 8408

$$



BLOCK



The cell still has a warning, I didn't even realize it had a warning when it first hit cause I was watching the storm on my back porch!
After cooling slightly through much of January and early February, SST anomaly maps show the East Pacific has warmed some lately.

This is going to be the standard for much of this upcoming Spring: a flip-flop between warm neutral and cool neutral.
Instability isn't the issue tomorrow, storm mode is. Might not get that morning convection out of the way in time for pre frontal confluence bands to set up, giving us a better tornado threat.

Quoting tornadodude:
Instability isn't the issue tomorrow, storm mode is. Might not get that morning convection out of the way in time for pre frontal confluence bands to set up, giving us a better tornado threat.


There's not much in the way of low-level wind shear either.

Then there's the problem of a small warm sector. Little time for storms to produce a tornado before crossing the boundary and becoming elevated in nature (assuming discrete cells form).
'The whole house started to shake'

Kiama residents awoke to scenes of destruction yesterday morning after a tornado ripped through the township leaving a trail of severely damaged homes in its wake.

Three homes were totally destroyed and the future of seven others was still to be determined as the State Emergency Service received 158 calls for assistance from the Kiama area.

Aerial photographs reveal the path the tornado took when it hit land at the south end of Bombo Beach around 3am.

From there it climbed up the hill through Gipps, Pacific and Antrim Streets before it caused maximum damage to homes at the highest point of Minnamurra Street.

The storm system then continued south-west, damaging parts of the Blue Haven retirement village, and ripped roofs off the Kiama Fire Station and parts of the Kiama Leisure Centre.

The tornado continued across the Princes Highway into the Cedar Ridge Estate.

GALLERY: Storm leaves path of destruction in Kiama

VIDEO: The aftermath of the Kiama storm

Gipps Street resident Darren Ritchie said a waterfront home on the north side of Gipps St appeared to explode when the storm hit.

Mr Ritchie said he was woken by what sounded like a freight train around 3am and he ran to get his 18-month-old son.

"It lasted about a minute ... we escaped with just two broken windows, but the two holiday homes next door were severely damaged," Mr Ritchie said.

Further down Gipps Street former Sydney Morning Herald journalist Bruce Elder said he had always joked that he wanted to be in a tornado, but never thought he would be in one in Kiama.

The Elders had a window broken thanks to debris from the unoccupied house next door which had windows and a verandah ripped off at the front and windows smashed at the rear.

"The rain was unbelievable ... it was absolutely solid," Mr Elder said. "Then the wind started to build up and build up ... then the whole house started to shake."

Mr Elder's wife Kim is a former California resident.

"I have lived through earthquakes and they were nothing like this," she said.

At the highest point of Minnamurra Street residents were woken by a noise they described as being like a jet aircraft.

About five homes on the north side of the street were severely damaged with roofs and even rooms completely taken off by the winds, the bulk of the damage being caused to homes in a section of the street about 150 metres wide.

One woman had a lucky escape when the bedroom in which she was sleeping was the only part of her house to remain in place.

Debris and contents from the affected homes, from tiles to furniture, caused significant damage to cars and homes on the south side of Minnamurra Street.

The street was covered in broken tiles, wood, shattered glass, books and clumps of pink and yellow insulation which had been sprayed across cars like fairy floss.

Minnamurra Street resident Rob Nelson said he awoke to a noise that sounded like "a plane going down" and from his window could see roofs flapping in the wind with lights still attached.

His trusty Toyota van survived, albeit with quite a few dents from flying materials, but other cars did not fare so well with one Subaru copping the full force of a flying roof.

Over at the Blue Haven retirement village, Tony Heslin said he was woken by the lighthouse light which seemed twice as bright as usual.

"We always sleep with the window open, it faces east. The wind was driving through the window and when it woke us it had been so strong Beryl had wet feet in the bed!" he laughed.

The couple had parked their motor home on the street the night before in preparation for a Sunday trip and it had been damaged by falling branches.

Kiama firefighter Ben Daly began his day searching for a section of the Kiama fire station's roof, which along with his shirt - name tag still attached - was found about 500 metres away.

Another section of the station's roof - estimated to weigh about 600 kilograms - was hanging precariously about 20 metres from the ground in trees across the road.

"It took four of us to lift a similar section this morning so you can see how powerful this storm was to put that up there," Mr Daly said.

You can see that in Louisiana, the storms look to be mainly linear. The hodographs further east look favorable for tornadoes, but there might be too much ongoing precipitation from the lifting warm front to allow for substantial pre-frontal convection to form.
The 850mb winds are ample, however, the surface winds are fairly weak. In the South, surface winds are almost more important than 850mb winds due to the typically low topped nature of the storms

NSW SES Kiama Unit jobs for the previous 72hrs by job type. You can see the storm path through Kiama with the cluster of jobs types starting from the coast working its way inward. A busy day for NSW SES volunteers.



Sydney map


A visual representation of NSW SES jobs over the previous 7 days for the Metro locations. As you can see the abundance of calls during this time due to the severe weather hitting our State.

State View
Happy and Sad (Red and Blue)
Quoting tornadodude:



3 years... 0 snowflakes here

You are lucky
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



3 years... 0 snowflakes here

You are lucky


Where do you live in Georgia?
The NWS currently has me getting over 7" of snow. That would be my biggest snowfall from one system this season.
As I said earlier, Wichita has already accumulated 14.2" inches in February 2013; the record for any month in the city is 20.5" (set exactly 100 years ago, 1913).

Q was the city's second largest snowfall on record, with the largest being one that produced 15" in 1962.

Rocky is expected to dump more snow than a foot of snow across the city tomorrow. Not only does that mean the system will likely be the biggest snowstorm ever recorded for the city, but it will likely produce enough snow to push this month over the threshold for snowiest month on record.
Miami NWS Disco

NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER...BRINGING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS...BUT NOW HAS THE 850MB 0C LINE DOWN TO THE
LAKE BY THE END OF DAY 7. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF ADVECTS A LOT
MORE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS BRINGS THE 850MB 0C LINE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH -3 TO -4C AROUND THE LAKE ON DAY 7. SO
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER THAN THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVING...WITH HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY
COOLER THAN THE LOWS THAT WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

How low will it go in West Palm Beach?...New forcast coming out in a couple of hours...

The following link shows all the damage pics from the Storm that affected NSW over the past week, including the Tornadoes in Kiama and Nowra.


Link
Good afternoon everyone! I am back from a Boy Scout camping trip, am very sore and tired. My friend is home now with a concussion thanks to a tree that attacked him while we were playing football.

So, TA, the current #1 snowstorm. What was its name?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As I said earlier, Wichita has already accumulated 14.2" inches in February 2013; the record for any month in the city is 20.5" (set exactly 100 years ago, 1913).

Q was the city's second largest snowfall on record, with the largest being one that produced 15" in 1962.

1049. hydrus
Quoting Seattleite:
Time for a poll! Due to the stunning RI in Cyclone Rusty, I am curious to know what everyone thinks will be the ultimate maximum wind speed. Personally, I think it is being underestimated and will max out around 135mph/218kph.

Thoughts?
I believe Rusty will be extremely dangerous, and cause serious flooding problems for the folks there...terrible.
Yes, I realize this is a top 20 snowiest month graph and the months are missing with the dates. I'll post a revised version later when I can figure out how to change the formatting.




Quoting Astrometeor:
Good afternoon everyone! I am back from a Boy Scout camping trip, am very sore and tired. My friend is home now with a concussion thanks to a tree that attacked him while we were playing football.

So TA, the current #1 snowstorm. What was its name?

It didn't have one.
I hope The Flying Nun wins for playing Mary Todd Lincoln.
1052. hydrus
1053. hydrus
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I hope The Flying Nun wins for playing Mary Todd Lincoln.
I hope so too...I have always had a crush on Sally Fields...sry, i had to do it ..:)
Quoting hydrus:
I hope so too...I have always had a crush on Sally Fields...sry, i had to do it ..:)


As a history buff, I hope "Lincoln" wins. But from the "media buzz", it sounds like "Argo" will get the nod.
Quoting hydrus:
I hope so too...I have always had a crush on Sally Fields...sry, i had to do it ..:)


I remember Gidget and the Flying Nun......
I kinda hope Naomi Watts wins best actress because "The Impossible" looks very interesting, plus it tells a true story of hope and perseverance during the 2004 disaster
For Grothar...Shirley Bassey will be
singing "Goldfinger" this evening!
1058. ncstorm
Quoting Doppler22:
I kinda hope Naomi Watts wins best actress because "The Impossible" looks very interesting


I agree, looks very interesting..I actually enjoy the Tsunami movies that have been put out by Hollywood

HBO had a great miniseries some years back about Thailand in 2004 that I recommend everyone to see .. (Tsunami, the Aftermath)
Quoting Seattleite:
Time for a poll! Due to the stunning RI in Cyclone Rusty, I am curious to know what everyone thinks will be the ultimate maximum wind speed. Personally, I think it is being underestimated and will max out around 135mph/218kph.

Thoughts?




The BOM is forecasting 90kn or 103mph. I feel that is quiet low.

This is my thinking
1-minute sustained:
230 km/h (145 mph)(126kn)
Lowest pressure 935 mbar (hPa); 27.61 inHg




Here is the sounding for the eye of STC Rusty.



TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1916 UTC 24/02/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Rusty
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [167 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 100 nm [185 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 25/0600: 17.9S 118.6E: 045 [080]: 055 [100]: 970
24: 25/1800: 18.6S 118.8E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 966
36: 26/0600: 19.2S 118.9E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 951
48: 26/1800: 19.5S 118.9E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 941
60: 27/0600: 20.1S 119.0E: 130 [235]: 090 [165]: 942
72: 27/1800: 20.9S 119.0E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 976
REMARKS:
The cyclone was located by animated IR imagery centre. The system has the
structure of a large monsoonal system at present with the strongest winds
removed from the centre. Bedout Island reported sustained winds of 40-45 knots
during Sunday in a persisting convective band to the south. Convection is now
starting to wrap around the centre, and the last two images have suggested a
wrap of around 0.6, yielding a DT of 3.0. The system has showed significant
development over the past 24 hours, so MET has been set at 3.5. At this time FT
has been held at 3.0 and the system remains at 45 knots, but the expectation is
for this to increase to 50 knots by 2100UTC.

ADT has been gradually increasing, with CI=3.4 at 1830UTC. SATCON intensity
estimates are around 45 knots.

CIMSS shear analysis at 18Z showed less than 10 knots shear over the system and
with strong upper level divergence and high SSTs, environmental conditions are
favourable for intensification. Steady intensification is forecast through to
24h but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when
convection becomes focussed near the centre.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48h.
Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the
system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion
and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This
increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than
usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading
to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely
in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion is also likely to cause a greater chance that tides along the
Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
So how cold is that at night in the 20's in WPB and 50's at day time??
And I hope Quevenzhane wins cause she's from Houma.. and I love hearing folks get tongue-twisted trying to pronounce her name, lol...

back to wx - Fresh burst of tstms lifting quickly NNE over SE LA, severe tstm warnings issued, more on way... Nasty looking cell coming off Gulf into SW Terrebonne Parish w VIL indicating notable hail potential, hope it weakens..

Several severe storms have popped up in the New Orleans area, mostly south of the city, but they're heading that way:

Based on what I have seen through the years living here we have a set up that would allow cold air advection to form stratocumulus clouds over the Gulf and with a Northwest flow would push those clouds into coastal sections, usually that would keep temperatures up and light cold rain would fall. I've never seen flurries since I lived here and I was born in '88. I'm actually hoping the models trend upwards to show actual snowfall accumulations even if it were a tenth of an inch.

GFS:



Euro:

re: #1061 -
And KLIX NWS agrees, just put out severe tstm warning stating same, capable of large damaging hail up to golf ball size...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Several severe storms have popped up in the New Orleans area, mostly south of the city, but they're heading that way:



Yep, storms are popping up in La.

From NWS Lake Charles

Last week we looked at the Dual Pol Products to see confirmation of a tornado via the Tornado Debris Signature. Tonight... We got to use the Dual Pol Products to indicate large hail within a storm.

At 162 hrs. latest GFS snowfall accumulation:



Makes sense too look at the tongue of snowfall coverage sinking southward into Alabama, if you draw a line and continue it southeast you might get an indication of how cold the air might be.
Downtown New Orleans looks to miss the worst of the storms, for now. Storms are bringing a threat of large hail up to golf balls at times. Click to enlarge.


LOL... just saw a lady on a game show not able to recognise that a trough is the low point of a wave... lol
Quoting wxchaser97:
Downtown New Orleans looks to miss the worst of the storms, for now. Storms are bringing a threat of large hail up to golf balls at times.
You can see that hook on the larger tornado warning. Are you hearing of anything on the ground?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You can see that hook on the larger tornado warning. Are you hearing of anything on the ground?

They aren't tornado warnings, they are severe thunderstorm warnings. That is just the default color for the GR2Analyst severe t-storm warning, with pink being a tornado warning.

Oh and it shows a maximum of over 3" hail on GR2Analyst right now on the far southwestern storm not shown in the image.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You can see that hook on the larger tornado warning. Are you hearing of anything on the ground?

There are no tornado warnings in effect.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Downtown New Orleans looks to miss the worst of the storms, for now. Storms are bringing a threat of large hail up to golf balls at times.



The atmosphere is primed for hail across the gulf coast right now, lots of hail earlier over here in the Panhandle including at my place. It wasn't just a few hail stones ether, the storm was loaded with them! I'll note the rain was very cold as well. It's because there is a lot of elevated instability and steep lapse rates in the mid levels.

We had numerous pea penny and nickel sized hail stones, and even some quarter sized hail mixed in, golf ball sized hail has occurred elsewhere.


The fact that the gulf coast region is on a boundary between dry air and deeper moisture is also the other reason, its easier to get hail with less deep of moisture, the moisture is mainly mid and upper level and drier low levels.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You can see that hook on the larger tornado warning. Are you hearing of anything on the ground?


It is technically a hook, since it is an inflow dominant supercell, but any rotation is likely very elevated. Large hail threat tho!
1074. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
At 162 hrs. latest GFS snowfall accumulation:



Makes sense too look at the tongue of snowfall coverage sinking southward into Alabama, if you draw a line and continue it southeast you might get an indication of how cold the air might be.


OK, this really caught my eye (not usually in this blog outside of hurricane season). Is that SNOW? In the Tampa Bay Area? We haven't seen that since 1977, is it really possible?
New mesoscale discussion for that area on the hail threat, watch unlikely.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN MS/FAR SOUTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250048Z - 250215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN
MS AND FAR SOUTHERN AL. OVERALL SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL OVERALL...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR OF TSTMS ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FURTHER
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING. TO THE
NORTH OF AN OFFSHORE WARM FRONT...THESE TSTMS WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH A RELATIVELY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NEW ORLEANS/SLIDELL LA WAS INDICATIVE A
7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 1200 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH MUCH OF
THE TSTMS LIKELY BASED AROUND 850-900 MB. RELATIVELY MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE...AND MORE SO...A TENDENCY FOR CONGEALING TSTMS GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CLOUD LAYER /2-3
KM/...SUGGEST THAT HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER OR LESS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013


ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30778748 29128878 29299180 30299205 30778748
Quoting GTcooliebai:
At 162 hrs. latest GFS snowfall accumulation:



Makes sense too look at the tongue of snowfall coverage sinking southward into Alabama, if you draw a line and continue it southeast you might get an indication of how cold the air might be.



I'm certainly not buying it yet but you never know :)

Regardless major models agree that much colder air will arrive, a lot colder than what is shown in the 7 day forecast. The reason for that is how rare it is to see this in March, although not completely unheard of.

But still, the forecasts won't show it until the models stay consistent for a few more days, if the models hold as cold as now the temps will be a lot colder than currently shown in the 7 day forecast.

Models are indicating that highs would be in the low to mid 40's at best with near freezing at the coast and well into the 20's inland. A lot could change though still.
1078. Bielle
Quoting DocNDswamp:
And I hope Quevenzhane wins cause she's from Houma.. and I love hearing folks get tongue-twisted trying to pronounce her name, lol...

back to wx - Fresh burst of tstms lifting quickly NNE over SE LA, severe tstm warnings issued, more on way... Nasty looking cell coming off Gulf into SW Terrebonne Parish w VIL indicating notable hail potential, hope it weakens..



Quvenzhané: the right spelling makes it look even harder to pronounce.
Quoting wxchaser97:
New mesoscale discussion for that area on the hail threat, watch unlikely.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN MS/FAR SOUTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250048Z - 250215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN
MS AND FAR SOUTHERN AL. OVERALL SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL OVERALL...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR OF TSTMS ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FURTHER
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING. TO THE
NORTH OF AN OFFSHORE WARM FRONT...THESE TSTMS WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH A RELATIVELY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NEW ORLEANS/SLIDELL LA WAS INDICATIVE A
7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 1200 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH MUCH OF
THE TSTMS LIKELY BASED AROUND 850-900 MB. RELATIVELY MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE...AND MORE SO...A TENDENCY FOR CONGEALING TSTMS GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CLOUD LAYER /2-3
KM/...SUGGEST THAT HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER OR LESS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013


ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30778748 29128878 29299180 30299205 30778748



Geez are stingy with the watches right now lol, multiple warnings, plenty of super cells and yet no watch.


Yet sometimes the SPC will issue watches really quickly and sometimes there are quite a few less severe thunderstorms than with this.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
8:42 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (972 hPa) located at 17.5S 118.3E or 315 km north of Port Hedland and 430 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning, before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.0S 118.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.7S 118.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.5S 118.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 21.4S 118.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
The cyclone was located by microwave imagery, animated infrared imagery with some support from offshore observations. The system has the structure of a large monsoonal system at present with the strongest winds removed from the center. Bedout Island reported sustained winds of 40-45 knots during Sunday in a persisting convective band to the south.

DT of 3.0 obtained with 0.6-0.7 wrap on infrared on 1930-2230 images. The system has showed significant development over the past 24 hours and MET is 3.5. FT and CI are set to 3.5. ADT is at CI 3.5. AMSU estimates are slightly higher at around 55-58 knots 10-min mean. SATCON at 20UTC was 47 knots 1-min mean. Final intensity estimate is 50 knot 10-min mean winds.

CIMSS shear analysis is around 10 knots at 00Z. There is strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion is also likely to cause a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Under a Winter Storm Warning here in Norman, Oklahoma

We hit 64 degrees today
Quoting Jedkins01:



Geez are stingy with the watches right now lol, multiple warnings, plenty of super cells and yet no watch.


Yet sometimes the SPC will issue watches really quickly and sometimes there are quite a few less severe thunderstorms than with this.


I don't think those cells will persist, probably why they won't issue a watch.

Just my thoughts tho :p

As a chaser, I've seen a tornado with no tornado watch, also been under a tornado watch, and not a single storm formed haha
Quoting tornadodude:
Under a Winter Storm Warning here in Norman, Oklahoma

We hit 64 degrees today

It's strange how bullish the NWS there is being. The GFS and NAM give Norman less than a 1/2" yet the mets are calling for several inches.
Quoting Bielle:


Quvenzhan: the right spelling makes it look even harder to pronounce.


LOL, true 'nough! I stand corrected... ;)

Hail-warned storm approaching... out to observe...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's strange how bullish the NWS there is being. The GFS and NAM give Norman less than a 1/2" yet the mets are calling for several inches.


Yeah, NAM, EURO, GFS all give us little snow, yet we have a winter storm warning with most of the mets calling for several inches. I guess the intensity of the storm and potential for it to shift south by even 70 miles would be huge here.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
8:52 AM WST February 25 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 13.2S 98.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 98.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.2S 98.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.8S 99.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.3S 101.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated near-infrared and infrared imagery of exposed low level circulation center.

Convection has been limited to the western flank of the low in a moderate to high shear environment. Deep convection has been trying to form close to the low level circulation center in recent images but have failed to persist. CIMSS shear analysis at 24/18Z indicates an area of high shear gradient near the system of about 30 knots [shear increasing towards the north]. It's evident that dry air is also located to the west of the system but has no impact on development at this stage.

The cloud pattern continues to show a little organisation and curvature during the last 6-12 hours. Dvorak analysis at 25/00Z yields a DT=2.5 based on a shear pattern [<3/4deg from strong temperature gradient]. MET=2.5 and PAT=2.0. FT is based on DT.

ASCAT-B pass at 24/1527Z indicated an area of gales to the northwest and northeast of the system [up to 45 knots] associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow. Cocos Island Airport observation have reported gales since 24/17Z. System is assigned below TC intensity based on Australian requirements for gales to extend more than half way around the centre. Max winds near the centre of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement has been towards the south. Steering appears to be balanced between the monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and southeasterlies from a mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a motion to the south to southeast for the next 24-48 hours. This may place the system in a lower shear environment [although still 10-20 knots]. Therefore a slow development rate is expected, which means the system could reach TC intensity within 24 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge begins to weaken mid-week ahead of a short wave feature and this allows motion to tend towards the east. There is some model disagreement and there is a possibility that the system could continue moving south in the long term as well. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system which causes the system to weaken.


Here we go

".VERY
HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY
INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z."
I expected Chicago to be under a winter storm right now, but I guess not. Especially since all of southern Michigan and northern Indiana are under a winter storm watch.


Heavy thundersnow, that's awesome! I love thundersnow.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I expected Chicago to be under a winter storm right now, but I guess not. Especially since all of southern Michigan and northern Indiana are under a winter storm watch.


Heavy thundersnow, that's awesome! I love thundersnow.



NWS Chicago AFD

"AFTER COORDINATION IWX/MKX ARE HOLING OFF ON A WATCH AND ILX/DVN
ARE NOT EXPANDING THEIR WATCH SO AFTER GIVING IT SOME SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DECIDED THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPE AND THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
RAISED ENOUGH DOUBTS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DESPITE NO WINTER STORM
WATCH YET...THE THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM
TO STRIKE THE AREA TUESDAY. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DONT REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...IF TEMPS DO MANAGE TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND SNOW RATES GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN IMPACTS COULD BE VERY
SIGNIFICANT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WET
SNOW IS NOT TYPICALLY VERY DRIFTABLE...SO WOULD BE A WIND WHIPPED
FALLING SNOW MOST LIKELY. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING INTO A SOLID OR EVEN HIGH END
ADVISORY EVENT AND IMPACT-WISE AN ARGUMENT COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN
BE MADE TO BEND THE WARNING CRITERIA AND GO WITH A WARNING...BUT
SEEING AS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY A 4TH PERIOD EVENT THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE AND
GET HEADLINES OUT PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING WHICH STILL GIVES WELL
OVER 24 HOURS LEAD TIME."




Basically they aren't sold on it being cold enough to produce significant snow
Quoting tornadodude:



NWS Chicago AFD

"AFTER COORDINATION IWX/MKX ARE HOLING OFF ON A WATCH AND ILX/DVN
ARE NOT EXPANDING THEIR WATCH SO AFTER GIVING IT SOME SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DECIDED THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPE AND THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
RAISED ENOUGH DOUBTS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DESPITE NO WINTER STORM
WATCH YET...THE THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM
TO STRIKE THE AREA TUESDAY. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DONT REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...IF TEMPS DO MANAGE TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND SNOW RATES GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN IMPACTS COULD BE VERY
SIGNIFICANT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WET
SNOW IS NOT TYPICALLY VERY DRIFTABLE...SO WOULD BE A WIND WHIPPED
FALLING SNOW MOST LIKELY. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING INTO A SOLID OR EVEN HIGH END
ADVISORY EVENT AND IMPACT-WISE AN ARGUMENT COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN
BE MADE TO BEND THE WARNING CRITERIA AND GO WITH A WARNING...BUT
SEEING AS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY A 4TH PERIOD EVENT THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE AND
GET HEADLINES OUT PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING WHICH STILL GIVES WELL
OVER 24 HOURS LEAD TIME."

Thanks, somehow I missed reading this...lol.
Looks like the storms are getting ready to move on in here in Mobile and over into Perdido..looks like some pretty nasty stuff out in the Gulf..sure hate to see this stuff roll in during the nighttime..:(
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thanks, somehow I missed reading this...lol.


Haha I agree with them, and honestly I wish the NWS here in Norman had done similar, I could justify a winter weather advisory here with a potential upgrade to a warning, but I'm not seeing it being that bad here.
Quoting AllyBama:
Looks like the storms are getting ready to move on in here in Mobile and over into Perdido..looks like some pretty nasty stuff out in the Gulf..sure hate to see this stuff roll in during the nighttime..:(


As you are on the cool side of the Warm Front, the tornado threat is fairly minimal overnight, however, could see hail to golf ball size
1094. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's strange how bullish the NWS there is being. The GFS and NAM give Norman less than a 1/2" yet the mets are calling for several inches.


I see 2-3" in the 18Z's
1095. hydrus
Some wind with this next system. The last one was quite nasty here on the plateau.
Warm-Front still a little ways off shore

Quoting beell:


I see 2-3" in the 18Z's


Definitely below Winter Storm Warning criteria
Quoting Huracaneer:


OK, this really caught my eye (not usually in this blog outside of hurricane season). Is that SNOW? In the Tampa Bay Area? We haven't seen that since 1977, is it really possible?


Actually, it was seen also in 1980, 1989 and 1993, though none of those incidents were nearly as impressive as the January 19, 1977 event was.

Snow also fell in the Tampa Bay area on a number of occasions going back to the late 19th century, all prior to the 1977 occurrence. It is quite rare but no reason it cannot happen, even in early March.
1099. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


Definitely below Winter Storm Warning criteria


Definitely above 1/2". Throw in a little wind.
Quoting beell:


Definitely above 1/2". Throw in a little wind.


Meh, heavy wet snow at 32 degrees hardly blows around
Quoting tornadodude:


Definitely below Winter Storm Warning criteria

At least for me, that would be winter weather advisory criteria. Even with blowing and drifting that would still be advisory criteria.
Not sure where you get 1-3 inches for Norman, Oklahoma out of this, 1 inch at best on this map

Updated West Palm Beach forecast...A tad bit cooler next weekend...

Tuesday A chance of snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 31. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

This is the forecast for my area from the NWS. Based on that, total would be 6-13" of snow, oh boy.
1105. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


Meh, heavy wet snow at 32 degrees hardly blows around


Maybe so. We'll see!

Probably won't see much accumulation at all until the surface low pulls south of KOUN tomorrow.
Quoting beell:


Maybe so. We'll see!

Probably won't see much accumulation at all until the surface low pulls south of KOUN tomorrow.


Agreed. Will be too warm
Quoting tornadodude:


Meh, heavy wet snow at 32 degrees hardly blows around

The falling snow would fall sideways though, but yeah it doesn't blow/drift well.
In parts of Oklahoma and Texas, you could go from hail producing thunderstorms to thundersnow. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

Mesoscale discussion #212
@NWSNorman: Our updated thoughts on the winter storm! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doWyWAaP9jA&feature =youtu.be … #okwx #texomawx

1110. bappit
From the OKC NWS office:


Rusty is a mess... not sure if it was just fooling us earlier with its strong appearance or if it's just fallen apart in the past few hours. Probably not even a hurricane equivalent right now.





24/2332 UTC 17.4S 118.3E T3.0/3.5 RUSTY -- Southeast Indian

It'll be interesting to see if it can recover, I really think its proximity to Australia is killing it, intensity forecast very well may bust badly.
1113. Grothar
Well that was fun... briefly pea-nickel size hail at my house, as most intense core slipped around me... but informed might have some damage at other location above. Certainly one of the strongest hail storms to lift across Terrebonne in a while, 1st report to come in -

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 11 W GRAY 29.68N 90.96W
02/24/2013 E1.75 INCH TERREBONNE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GIBSON/BAYOU BLACK AREA.
1115. llpj04
got a group of kids about to get on a bus from New Orleans and go on i-10 west to ponchatoula.

Does anyone see anything in that rotating storm north of raceland headed to Kenner. If so I will tell them to take cover
I hope Edith Head wins for Best Costume!
There's some rotation and a clear hook echo on a severe thunderstorm SW of New Orleans, moving towards the city. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a tornado warning issued for it.

Quoting llpj04:
got a group of kids about to get on a bus from New Orleans on i-10 west.
Does anyone see anything in that rotating storm north of raceland headed to Kenner. If so I will tell them to take cover


What do your local authorities say?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's some rotation and a clear hook echo on a severe thunderstorm SW of New Orleans, moving towards the city. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a tornado warning issued for it.




It's an elevated thunderstorm, the surface is too stable... These thunderstorms are north of the warm front, there won't be any tornadoes yet.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's some rotation and a clear hook echo on a severe thunderstorm SW of New Orleans, moving towards the city. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a tornado warning issued for it.



there won't likely be a tornado warning. You have to look at the environment this storm is in. Definitely elevated rotation.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's an elevated thunderstorm, the surface is too stable... These thunderstorms are north of the warm front, there won't be any tornadoes yet.



exactly.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's an elevated thunderstorm, the surface is too stable... These thunderstorms are north of the warm front, there won't be any tornadoes yet.
Quoting tornadodude:


there won't likely be a tornado warning. You have to look at the environment this storm is in. Definitely elevated rotation.

Ah, ok, thanks for the information! Still a pretty interesting feature.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Ah, ok, thanks for the information! Still a pretty interesting feature.


oh yeah, definitely. It is a supercell, so it is rotating. Even has a notch feature, big characteristic of an inflow dominant supercell. But the surface conditions are less than favorable for tornadogenesis.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Well that was fun... briefly pea-nickel size hail at my house, as most intense core slipped around me... but informed might have some damage at other location above. Certainly one of the strongest hail storms to lift across Terrebonne in a while, 1st report to come in -

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 11 W GRAY 29.68N 90.96W
02/24/2013 E1.75 INCH TERREBONNE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GIBSON/BAYOU BLACK AREA.



I'm not sure why the SPC is downplaying the severe potential, they said the atmosphere doesn't really support hail greater than one inch, they had the same statement over here in the Panhandle and there were cells producing golf ball sized hail over here as well.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Warm front slowly lifting northward
Blizzard Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warning at the same time

Quoting Jedkins01:
Something I have noticed, it seems that tropical cyclones in the Southern hemisphere have colder cloud tops on average then in the northern hemisphere? Or at least the ones in the South Pacific and around Australia?

Maybe its just because I've taken notice of southern hemisphere storms this season and it just happens to be a trend this season. Because tropical cyclones in the Atlantic did have much colder cloud tops during the 2004 and 2005 seasons than recently.

I have no proof if this, I could be completely wrong, I'm just blabbing.
Colder cloud tops are common in the wpac, spac, n Indian, and sw Indian ocean regions. In these basins the water is warmer at the surface (SSTs) and, additionally, the warmth extends much deeper (TCHP) and spans a much wider area (warm pool size) than it does in either the epac or Atlantic regions. Warmer SSTs, greater TCHP, and a larger warm pool all mean more heat in the atmosphere in these regions, relative to the epac and atl. Since it has relatively more heat, it also has a relatively higher tropopause and relatively stronger convection. Thus, cloud tops will reach a colder temperature in this region relative to epac and atl.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I could be totally off-base here, but I believe it has to do with the fact that many of the cyclones, similar to West Pacific systems, are monsoonal in nature. Add that to the fact that sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content are usually a bit more abundant, and there is no restriction in regards to the area the cyclone has to develop, and you usually see them produce much strong convection than systems in the Atlantic/East Pacific.

Just a thought.
Nope, you're right on target.

Warmer ocean = more heat = higher tropopause & stronger convection (both relative to atl/epac) = colder cloud tops.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The amount of organization that has occurred with Rusty over the past few hours borders on absolute ridiculousness. The system went from looking disorganized to a system with a developing, clearing eye with very cold cloudtops in the eyewall just like 'that'.

The system is probably already a high-end Category 2 equivalent:


uhh....no?



Not even a cat1 on ADT and ADT is notoriously biased on the high side lol.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Ah, ok, thanks for the information! Still a pretty interesting feature.


No problem! I'm sure if the sun was up you could see a visible meso and the storm would still look very threatening.

We had a super cell come through earlier and the same conditions exist over here in the Panhandle north of the front. I could see the rotation as the cell moved in with the hail core near the rotation, the hail core came right over me, tons of hail with it. Although the base was very elevated despite the threatening appearance. It had a really large amount of lightning for this time of year as well. Despite this though, the stable layer near the surface prevented and strong winds or tornado threat, the same goes for over there.

I was impressed by the surprising amount of CG lightning with such a high base and a stable surface layer, that was a little weird.
This is a severe thunderstorm in southern Oklahoma capable of producing damaging winds up to 65mph. Nothing too weird, right? I should mention this area is also under a blizzard warning right now.
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is a severe thunderstorm in southern Oklahoma capable of producing damaging winds up to 65mph. Nothing too weird, right? I should mention this area is also under a blizzard warning right now.


I <3 Oklahoma weather, that cell is to my west right now, should track towards me tho
Quoting tornadodude:


I <3 Oklahoma weather, that cell is to my west right now, should track towards me tho

Kinda reminds me of Michigan weather, it can change dramatically at a moments notice.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Kinda reminds me of Michigan weather, it can change dramatically at a moments notice.


Absolutely, having lived in Indiana most of my life, I concur lol
That cell in Oklahoma means business, already multiple reports of 65-70mph winds with it.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
841 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WASHITA COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 839 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COOPERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 70 MPH NEAR HOBART AND
SOUTHEAST OF MAGNUM WITH THE GUST FRONT WELL AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORMS.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOBART...CACHE...GRANITE...CARNEGIE...MOUNTAIN VIEW...SENTINEL...
FORT COBB...LONE WOLF...MOUNTAIN PARK...INDIAHOMA...ROOSEVELT...
GOTEBO...ROCKY...COOPERTON...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...ALFALFA...TOM
STEED RESERVOIR...WARREN...MEERS AND ALTUS-LUGERT LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TAKE SHELTER NOW IN A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 9928 3522 9837 3455 9857 3483 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 292DEG 36KT 3495 9893

$$

MBS
Good night!:)
1138. llpj04
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What do your local authorities say?
watchin the TV but I know you guys spot stuff before they can get it on air! I have lurked here since 2000 and upload pics the past few years. I know that there are many great minds on this blog! Thanks


Quoting TomTaylor:
uhh....no?



Not even a cat1 on ADT and ADT is notoriously biased on the high side lol.

It looked better earlier lol.

1140. hydrus
1141. llpj04
tornado symbol showing up now south west of New Orleans
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm not sure why the SPC is downplaying the severe potential, they said the atmosphere doesn't really support hail greater than one inch, they had the same statement over here in the Panhandle and there were cells producing golf ball sized hail over here as well.


Jed, here's the 2nd report to come in - "merely" one inch size, but good duration. Worst I've experienced lasted over half hour in Mar 2000, incredible racket, fresh budding leaves, etc all stripped clean...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
831 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM HAIL GRAY 29.68N 90.78W
02/24/2013 E1.00 INCH TERREBONNE LA PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED 15 TO 20 MINUTES. REPORT FROM FACEBOOK.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Tuesday A chance of snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 31. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

This is the forecast for my area from the NWS. Based on that, total would be 6-13" of snow, oh boy.


wow...more snow for you then.
So sad Whitney is not there to sing her Oscar song.
Quoting llpj04:
tornado symbol showing up now south west of New Orleans


Still elevated rotation
??? Thunderstorm warning in a blizzard warning?

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
??? Thunderstorm warning in a blizzard warning?



Not snowing there yet, still pre frontal with temps near 50. Rapid temp drops and heavy snow behind the storm tho. Crazy sight.


Nope.

...I'll track storms instead.
1149. llpj04
Quoting tornadodude:


Still elevated rotation


thanks!!!
I get off work around 7am CST time tomorrow, heading NW towards Woodward, Oklahoma. I will try to live stream when I can.

Feel free to check it out tomorrow tho, here,

StormIntercept.Com
Link

Elevated supercell heading into westbank New Orleans area (southern suburbs) continues to provide numerous pieces of evidence that large hail is likely. Estelle area seems likely to get the brunt of the hail/wind, with Westwego, Marrero, Timberlane areas also possibly experiencing some severe weather.
WOCN11 CWTO 242030
Special weather statement issued
Environment Canada
Sunday 24 February 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Parry Sound - Muskoka
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
=new= Algonquin
=new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Potential winter storm Tuesday night and Wednesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over Western Texas is forecast to intensify and
move northeastward to pass near Southern Ontario Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are possible with
this system.

At this point, there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding which
areas will see mostly rain or snow, as temperatures will be fairly
close to the freezing mark. Environment Canada is closely monitoring
the situation. This statement will be updated to include additional
information as it becomes available regarding the evolution of this
potential winter storm.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
I get off work around 7am CST time tomorrow, heading NW towards Woodward, Oklahoma. I will try to live stream when I can.

Feel free to check it out tomorrow tho, here,

StormIntercept.Com
1154. Thrawst
Absolutely brutal storm in the south suburbs of New Orleans...
I don't see a TVS, but I sure see lots of heavy rain and large hail with this supercell. Scrolling over that white diamond shows 3.66" hail right now. Idk if it is really that big but this cell certainly has large damaging hail.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:42 am WST on Monday 25 February 2013



A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie
including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 2 was estimated to be
315 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
390 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
was nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning,
before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales
could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday
and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe
tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the
crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy
rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western
Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy
rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment.
Significant flooding in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams
is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Mardie, including Port
Hedland and Karratha and extending to adjacent inland areas including Marble
Bar and Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 118.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Monday 25 February.
Quoting llpj04:
watchin the TV but I know you guys spot stuff before they can get it on air! I have lurked here since 2000 and upload pics the past few years. I know that there are many great minds on this blog! Thanks




That's the same cell I've been mentioning (as others have) for over 2 hrs, when came off Gulf into Terrebonne... still bears watching, KLIX radar Vertically Integrated Liquid setting consistently indicating hail for entire period. (edit - meant to quote post #1141)
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN
AT 0120UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2013



GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal two south (13.2S)
longitude ninety eight decimal one east (98.1E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 180 nautical miles in NW
quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC 26
February.

Southwest to northwest winds 30/45 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE
quadrant and within 180 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough
seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 25 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 13.7 south 98.4 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre
At 0000 UTC 26 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.2 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +61889279276
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

This warning replaces Ocean Wind Warning 1 issued by Weather Melbourne
[IDY21000].

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 25 February 2013.
0232 UNK MATHEWS LAFOURCHE LA 2969 9056 POWER LINES DOWN. SHED DESTROYED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
I would be a bit concerned if I lived in Gretna, LA right about now.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I don''t see a TVS, but I sure see lots of heavy rain and large hail with this supercell. Scrolling over that white diamond shows 3.66" hail right now. Idk if it is really that big but this cell certainly has large damaging hail.


I'm leaning towards golfball sized hail, but a large volume of it
1166. hydrus
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 250120Z - 250715Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES
COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER
NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE
WIND SHIFT.

00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED
ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH
TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY
HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY
INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2013
Aussie...How much sleep have you had in the past few days? You are on when I wake up and when I go to bed! Take care of your self!
meanwhile 18s getting some big time shear...center exposed
Quoting wxchaser97:
I don''t see a TVS, but I sure see lots of heavy rain and large hail with this supercell. Scrolling over that white diamond shows 3.66" hail right now. Idk if it is really that big but this cell certainly has large damaging hail.

Likely no tornado threat due to elevated nature of the convection. Many times we get overestimates on the hail algorithm because we will get very prolific, wet hail that sends DBZ values sky high. Still likely golfball to maybe baseball hail occurring in westbank New Orleans metro right now. Slight wobble to the north brought hail further into the city than what earlier motion suggested.
1170. hydrus
I believe Rusty is pulling in some dry air, and may slow development for a bit..
Quoting hydrus:
I believe Rusty is pulling in some dry air, and may slow development for a bit..


yeah, something happened there
1172. hydrus
Got reports of ping-pong-sized hail (1.5") in the core of the cell that just passed over Terrytown.
1174. hydrus
If you look closely, you can see the dry slot entrained near the center.
Quoting hydrus:
If you look closely, you can see the dry slot entrained near the center.


this this going to stop the current intensification process for a little while or slow it down (at least) for a moment
Fascinating

1177. hydrus
Haruna was looking impressive before making landfall. I have not heard much about the damage or possible loss of life.
no winter alerts issued from the Chicago NWS office. I wonder what they are going to keep that gap there.

Here is the hail that is falling from the storm in New Orleans:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Aussie...How much sleep have you had in the past few days? You are on when I wake up and when I go to bed! Take care of your self!

I'm alright mate. My body is used to not much sleep due to 16yrs of afternoon and evening shifts. In the process of changing careers atm so maybe that will change also.

Paperman won best animation at the Oscars.
1181. hydrus
Haruna .
Quoting MississippiWx:
Here is the hail that is falling from the storm in New Orleans:

golf ball size hail next up baseball size hail
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
11:45 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (972 hPa) located at 17.6S 118.9E or 305 km north of Port Hedland and 410 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Overnight it moved very slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track by this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during the early afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams is also likely.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream
1185. MahFL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So sad Whitney is not there to sing her Oscar song.


She should not have abused illegal drugs and she might still be alive......
Quoting MahFL:


She should not have abused illegal drugs and she might still be alive......


I agree...Still sad.
Anyone of you all ever see basketball size hail in your life? Besides from the movie the Day After Tomorrow.
---
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anyone of you all ever see basketball size hail in your life? Besides from the movie the Day After Tomorrow.


Oh now I see you here, I was in Stamford, CT yesterday. At one moment I felt the rain was mixed with sleet on the back of my neck
1190. pcola57

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anyone of you all ever see basketball size hail in your life? Besides from the movie the Day After Tomorrow.


Picture from Africa & maybe AU.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Oh now I see you here, I was in Stamford, CT yesterday. At one moment I felt the rain was mixed with sleet on the back of my neck
Yeah that does sting. Hey I was meaning to ask you how long it took the snow to melt from Nemo?
1193. pcola57

Excerpt taken from Christopher C. Burt's blog, "The deadliest hailstorms, and perhaps the largest hailstones, in the world occur on the Deccan Plateau of northern India and in Bangladesh. The heaviest authenticated hailstone ever measured was one of 2.25 pounds that fell in the Gopalganj district of Bangladesh on April 14, 1986. The stones size was not measured although anecdotal reports claimed the stones were the size of “pumpkins”. Ninety-two people perished as a result of the storm although how many of these can be attributed to the hail is uncertain. A hailstorm in the Moradabad and Beheri districts of India killed 246 people on April 30, 1888, the deadliest hailstorm on record in modern history."
1195. Gearsts
Rusty's a bad boy. I am most intrigued, and will proceed to write a forecast on him later tonight.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah that does sting. Hey I was meaning to ask you how long it took the snow to melt from Nemo?


well,lots of it has melted but there are places still covered here. I went to Bridgeport the day before yesterday (from I-95 into route 8 ext. 3) there are some huge mounds of snow there.

I was in Target eating some pizza there while looking down at the Stamford UCONN campus...lol
BLIZZARD ROCKY

Rocky to bury Southern Plains to Detroit. Major snowstorm indeed

Quoting pcola57:
Ding ding ding...Round 2..



Im waiting for the lady to walk across the ring with the sign...lol
1200. pcola57

1201. pcola57
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im waiting for the lady walking across with the poster...lol


Lol Max..
Quoting pcola57:


Lol Max..


I was invited to join the chat.. would like to join me?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Rusty's a bad boy. I am most intrigued, and will proceed to write a forecast on him later tonight.

Too bad I won't be able to read it until tomorrow morning as I'm going to bed.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BLIZZARD ROCKY

Rocky to bury Southern Plains to Detroit. Major snowstorm indeed


Looks good to me.
I had to use white color for your area chaser97
A lot of hailstorms blitzing through southeast Louisiana right now. Too bad I've not gotten a single hailstone.

trollface.jpg
Quoting wxchaser97:

Too bad I won't be able to read it until tomorrow morning as I'm going to bed.


Looks good to me.


You've said that before, then spent the next hour talking with me on Facebook.
1208. pcola57
Amazing lightening now..
Not gonna catch me outside with a camera though..




It's like storms move in a few miles then backup..
Then another set rolls in..

1209. pcola57
This should do some changing by midnight..
Accumulated Precip map..


1210. pcola57
Ok..that was close..gotta shut her down for awhile..
Quoting pcola57:
Ok..that was close..gotta shut her down for awhile..


lol...and thanks for joining Pcola
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Jed, here's the 2nd report to come in - "merely" one inch size, but good duration. Worst I've experienced lasted over half hour in Mar 2000, incredible racket, fresh budding leaves, etc all stripped clean...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
831 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM HAIL GRAY 29.68N 90.78W
02/24/2013 E1.00 INCH TERREBONNE LA PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED 15 TO 20 MINUTES. REPORT FROM FACEBOOK.



Yeah we had a similar thing although not quite that bad here. We had a significant constant hail falling through almost the whole cell, it lasted several minutes!

I'm not used to that, living near the coast in Central Florida, I don't see much hail. I've seen thunderstorm cores move right over me where the radar thinks we should get severe but get nothing. Often the atmospheric column is just too warm for too high up and too laden with moisture. Further inland in Central Florida, large hail is much more common. My home back in Clearwater FL, I've only seen large hail twice ever. I saw nickel sized hail one time and quarter sized another.

Although hail is still not as common down there because in general the atmosphere is too warm too high up with too much moisture when we get our strongest thunderstorms. Hail is more common there in the Spring through June but during those months thunderstorms are not at peak intensity or as widespread as July through September.

This is a classic looking warm front from a very dynamic system. These thunderstorms have a lot of lightning for warm frontal activity, just wait until the squall line develops!

This explains it all, check out this jet on satellite:


Finally some action. Severe thunderstorm warning for my parish.
Quoting Jedkins01:
This is a classic looking warm front from a very dynamic warm front. These thunderstorms have a lot of lightning for warm frontal activity, just wait until the squall line develops!

This explains it all, check out this jet on satellite:




This will actually be the first squall line for Central Florida this year.. Kinda sad.
any updates from ABM Aussie?
Quoting reedzone:


This will actually be the first squall line for Central Florida this year.. Kinda sad.



lol I know it really is pretty sad, and that's assuming the models are right. It wouldn't be the first squall line this winter that was predicted to be solid in Central Florida but never was.

Although I think there should be enough instability and dynamics around for some stronger thunderstorms and a solid line.

I'm not entirely sure why the highest severe concentration is so far west tomorrow given further east will have more time for destabilization and an increase in surface CAPE.
Another couple more super cells have popped again with Louisiana, likely major hail producers again.
AMSUB microwave pass from three hours ago for Rusty:



Looks like a large storm without a defined inner core. It will be interesting to see if the bullish intensity forecasts come to reality, or if this is another Isaac-ish storm like we've seen so many times.
well I live in Niceville FL and My mom just called me and saying my dad had a few fires going on in Niceville from Lightning strikes.. not good at all.. So hope nothing else happens at all for anything.. but I am afraid something will tho..
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until midnight CST
for northeastern Assumption... south central Ascension and western St.
James parishes...

At 1145 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
detect a severe thunderstorm capable of producing Golf Ball size
hail
... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was
located near Donaldsonville... moving northeast at 35 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Convent

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Please follow our office on both facebook and twitter for more
information on severe weather and to relay weather reports and
photos.


Lat... Lon 2988 9102 3004 9106 3018 9096 2998 9079
time... Mot... loc 0547z 239deg 29kt 3003 9098

Doppler radar estimates are even higher, up to baseball size.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
well I live in Niceville FL and My mom just called me and saying my dad had a few fires going on in Niceville from Lightning strikes.. not good at all.. So hope nothing else happens at all for anything.. but I am afraid something will tho..


watch out...
Niceville? You can so some advertising to tourists with such name
Going back and forth between forecasting our dear friend Rusty and monitoring tonight's severe weather in the south. Gotta love it, haha.


Definitely some dry air was injected into the circulation... could halt or slow the current deepening
Yeah its not really nice as what it says haha
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah we had a similar thing although not quite that bad here. We had a significant constant hail falling through almost the whole cell, it lasted several minutes!

I'm not used to that, living near the coast in Central Florida, I don't see much hail. I've seen thunderstorm cores move right over me where the radar thinks we should get severe but get nothing. Often the atmospheric column is just too warm for too high up and too laden with moisture. Further inland in Central Florida, large hail is much more common. My home back in Clearwater FL, I've only seen large hail twice ever. I saw nickel sized hail one time and quarter sized another.

Although hail is still not as common down there because in general the atmosphere is too warm too high up with too much moisture when we get our strongest thunderstorms. Hail is more common there in the Spring through June but during those months thunderstorms are not at peak intensity or as widespread as July through September.

I'd say most local thunderstorms (during the summer) that end up producing hail usually fail to do so until they move east of I75. It really sucks to be a weather enthusiast living 8 miles west of 75 lol
this sux.. some reason i can't quote anyone on here.. blahhh
Quoting KoritheMan:
Going back and forth between forecasting our dear friend Rusty and monitoring tonight's severe weather in the south. Gotta love it, haha.
Pretty sure Rusty is not feeling the mode right now.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RESERVE...LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CST

* AT 1154 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CONVENT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DONALDSONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...GARYVILLE AND EDGARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi until 8 AM local time.

Relevant mesoscale discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 250557Z - 250700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND PERIODIC WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL. MORE OF A
SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LA.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS
EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. AS SAMPLED BY
THE EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LAKE CHARLES/SLIDELL
LA...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE MUCAPE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF INLAND
PRECIPITATION. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN
AS WELL...ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO RISK...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD/INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013


ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29529194 30169132 30689026 30838856 30458816 28988891
29529194

As I suspected, they indicate increased tornado potential later this morning.
hey.. I dont know if my site is messed up on my computer.. b/c now i can post images or anything.. did they changed anything.. I haven't been on in awhile.. i just dont know if there something wrong like a glitch or what.. if someone can tell me.. thx
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
hey.. I dont know if my site is messed up on my computer.. b/c now i can post images or anything.. did they changed anything.. I haven't been on in awhile.. i just dont know if there something wrong like a glitch or what.. if someone can tell me.. thx


Not that I know of.
Well Kori.. Here is whats going on with what I am dealing with.. I can't quote anyone or dont have the options to link images or videos like I used to b4 or other options if i need to use them in my post.. I dont know if it is a setting or what.. I never had this problem!
TRMM of 96S

Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Well Kori.. Here is whats going on with what I am dealing with.. I can't quote anyone or dont have the options to link images or videos like I used to b4 or other options if i need to use them in my post.. I dont know if it is a setting or what.. I never had this problem!


Sounds like a browser issue. Try Chrome or something.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Well Kori.. Here is whats going on with what I am dealing with.. I can't quote anyone or dont have the options to link images or videos like I used to b4 or other options if i need to use them in my post.. I dont know if it is a setting or what.. I never had this problem!


What browser are you using?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds like a browser issue. Try Chrome or something.


In chrome when I quote it doesn't go automatically to the bottom of the page yet, but it is there if I scroll down..
@ Kori..

It could be.. I will try switching settings and if not then Chrome time.. lol well hope u been doing alright since I have been gone..
Quoting Skyepony:


In chrome when I quote it doesn't go automatically to the bottom of the page yet, but it is there if I scroll down..


But at least you can quote, lol. That's more than FL can do right now. :P
Firefox.. i never had a problem with it b4 for how long Ive been using since when it first came out.. Of course i don't use it for gaming on the internet but I thought it was weird that it would start acting up.. But Im going to see if it is a setting problem but if not then I will check out Chrome..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
@ Kori..

It could be.. I will try switching settings and if not then Chrome time.. lol well hope u been doing alright since I have been gone..


I have. Thanks for asking.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Firefox.. i never had a problem with it b4 for how long Ive been using since when it first came out.. Of course i don't use it for gaming on the internet but I thought it was weird that it would start acting up.. But Im going to see if it is a setting problem but if not then I will check out Chrome..


I have Firefox and am having no problems quoting or posting images.
West Atlantic..


Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Firefox.. i never had a problem with it b4 for how long Ive been using since when it first came out.. Of course i don't use it for gaming on the internet but I thought it was weird that it would start acting up.. But Im going to see if it is a setting problem but if not then I will check out Chrome..


This site does run about best on firefox. I'm using a version now & it's fine. Hope you find something in your settings or something.
Rusty..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
2:43 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (970 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.0E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrants
170 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. It has recently moved slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track later this afternoon or this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during this afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening or overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast. There is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.3S 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.8S 119.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.2S 119.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
ASCAT pass at 0139Z indicated minimum maximum winds of 50 knots and agreed with position just south of Rowley Shoals. Curved band wrap of around 0.7 to 0.8 obtained off recent VIS imagery giving DT 3.0 to 3.5. MET is 4.0based on a D trend, but PAT is 3.5. ADT is still at 3.5 and latest CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate [05Z] was around 60 knots 10-min mean. SATCON latest was 55 knots 10-min mean Final intensity estimate is 55 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS shear estimate is southesat at around 9 knots. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:04 PM WST February 25 2013
=========================================

At 3:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 14.1S 98.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 98.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 99.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.9S 100.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.4S 102.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated visible imagery of exposed low level circulation center. During the last 6 hours the area of convection on the western flank of the low has shown a significant decrease in both the areal extend and organization, indicative of a high shear environment. CIMSS shear analysis at 25/00Z and 25/06Z suggests 30 knots westerly shear.

Dvorak analysis at 25/06Z yields a DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern [70nm from low level circulation center to edge of deep convection]. This distance has been increasing during the last few hours. MET=1.0 and PAT=1.5. FT is based on DT. CI is held at 2.5.

ASCAT-B pass at 25/0242Z indicated an area of 30-40 knots winds associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow north of the system and marginal gales to the southwest. Cocos Island Airport observations have reported winds below gale force since 25/02Z. Max winds near the center of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement continues towards the south. The steering pattern is based on strong monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and a weaker mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a continual motion to the south to southeast. This may place the system in a slightly lower shear environment, allowing the low level circulation center to become better associated with the deep convection again. Therefore a slow development rate is possible and tropical cyclone development could occur within the next 18-24 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge will weaken ahead of a short wave feature and this will allow the southeast motion to continue. Consequently, the system may move into an area of lower ocean heat content. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system.







But could get 5 to 8 inches of rain locally in some areas.. so thats a lot of rain in one day that adds to the total for the last few days..

Also I am using Chrome until I can find the problem with my firefox.. Im about to pass out.. lol
Rainfall Totals
Hourly Rain 0.96 in
Daily Rain: 1.04 in
Monthly Rain: 53.06 in
Yearly Rain: 53.06 in
Normal Rain, month to date: 0.00 in
Normal Rain, year to date: 0.00 in

February has been very wet for Niceville, FL where i live.. thought it was very interesting to share! And I know some ppl on here have been dry and wish i can spread the wealth and looks like I am getting more to this total b4 February ends..
Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone's still up, here's my blog on Tropical Cyclone Rusty. Enjoy.


it's still a cat 1 on our scale.. cool
1256. LargoFl
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
hey.. I dont know if my site is messed up on my computer.. b/c now i can post images or anything.. did they changed anything.. I haven't been on in awhile.. i just dont know if there something wrong like a glitch or what.. if someone can tell me.. thx
I get that sometimes also,did you try signing into the blog?
1257. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks! kinda windy here this morning,warm, around 70 and humid..you can just tell..something is going to happen..well an interesting few days coming up around here..didnt get a drop of rain yesterday and today it once again stays to my north..tuesday hopefully it will rain here.......well the blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a safe day everyone
1258. LargoFl
1259. LargoFl
Morning Mr. Largo!

Evening Aussie!

Foggy here this am.
Max...... um ...... ????

Quoting AussieStorm:
Max...... um ...... ????



umm sir...you missed it. It was added 2 mins after I posted it. LOL

Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning Mr. Largo!

Evening Aussie!

Foggy here this am.

Evening mate. It's a sweatathon here.
Current Temp: 75.6°F
Relative Humidity: 85%
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


umm sir...you missed it. It was added 2 mins after I posted it. LOL


But how did it get there?
Quoting AussieStorm:

But how did it get there?


In photoshop, I have over 15 maps of different locations. I hide the maps and labels I don't need and mistakenly I forgot to take that one away. Reunion was a label for TC Haruna in Madagascar.


Also, Rusty could be developing an eye, the eyewall is closing up again after that dry air intrusion
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


In photoshop, I have over 15 maps of different locations. I hide the maps and labels I don't need and mistakenly I forgot to take that one away. Reunion was a label for TC Haruna in Madagascar.


Also, Rust could be developing an eye again, the eyewall is closing up again after that dry air intrusion


Yep.

here it is Aussie.. all fixed up.

The latest advice #16 calls for winds near 140 kph which equals to 87 mph...
I'm using 85 mph

Howdy Max!

Aussie, I have the AC on as we speak....
wow, pressure is down to 968 mb.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 119.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals


look at 18S entering the picture from the left
Take care fella's, I'm off to pick shrimp!
I have been here all night long..it's bout 5:35 AM here Monday Feb 25.

I'm going to bed now... Gnight guys.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


At landfall TC Rusty would be a high-end Cat 4 on BOM scale. Or a mid to high-end Cat 3 on SSHWS.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I have been here all night long..it's bout 5:35 AM here Monday Feb 25.

I'm going to bed now... Gnight guys.

Goodnight mate. Sweet dreams.

Quoting indianrivguy:
Take care fella's, I'm off to pick shrimp!

Take care.
Happy Shrimping.
TC Rusty now visible on Port Hedland Radar.

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warmer 59 degrees here this morning with a forecast of possible severe storms this morning and this afternoon.

Breakfast today is on the sideboard with Largo's coffee, bacon and eggs, sausage, and biscuits with gravy. Enjoy.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warmer 59 degrees here this morning with a forecast of possible severe storms this morning and this afternoon.

Breakfast today is on the sideboard with Largo's coffee, bacon and eggs, sausage, and biscuits with gravy. Enjoy.

Can i request an ice bath or a cool breeze, it's a sweat box here again.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can i request an ice bath or a cool breeze, it's a sweat box here again.


But of course! Sending a nice cold breeze your way and a table set up to enjoy it with some iced coffee with chilled fresh fruit.
Yellow alert as cyclone Rusty approaches

Les Hayter from DFES in Karratha says that the region will go onto yellow alert by 8pm tonight.

mp3 of Radio interview

"The yellow alert is definitely going to happen, sooner rather than later," Mr Hayter told Barry Nichols on Monday afternoon.
"We don't generally like people to go to sleep not knowing the alert level so it will go on sometime tonight before 8pm."
There is a blue alert for communities between Broome and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha.
Residents are being told to organise emergency kits including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Les Hayter says now is the time for people in the region to finalise their preparations.
"They can still move around but they are now looking at the fact that they might be moving to a red at some stage in the next 12-24 hours."
Mr Hayter says TC Rusty is intensifying and is unpredictable.
"We are looking at the potential for a very large system, category 4, crossing very slowly," he said.
"The real issue we have with this cyclone is that it is giving no indication of its travel. It appears to be heading in a south-easterly direction."
"It still possibly could swing a bit to the west which could cause problems in Port Hedland."
"Nobody is out of the woods at this stage. Anything between Mardie and Cape Levique is a possibility."
"People in low lying areas could be inundated by storm surges. These people should be looking at the possibility of evacuation and they should have an emergency kit ready."
1280. LargoFl
1281. LargoFl
cant get that last frame,makes it to miami gee...
Quoting LargoFl:


Looks like Pcola and my son are going to have some fun weather...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

SST beneath TC Rusty 30-31.5°C -- more than enough to support any Cat 5. Right now, half eyewall has formed
Link
1284. LargoFl
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Looks like Pcola and my son are going to have some fun weather...
yes i do hope no tornado's,going to be an interesting next few days hope everyone stays safe
1285. LargoFl
well anyway..a rough day for florida tuesday....
1286. LargoFl
THE SEVERE STUFF HAS BEGUN...............THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 630 AM CST

* AT 516 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST
OF GULF BREEZE...OR 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORIOLE BEACH...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDWAY... OCEAN CITY... FORT WALTON BEACH...
WOODLAWN BEACH... TIGER POINT... NAVARRE BEACH...
HOLLEY... SHALIMAR... LAKE LORRAINE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

TC Rusty rapidly intensifying off NW Australian coast, forecast to reach at least 115 knots before landfall +2-3 dys
Link
1288. LargoFl
Morning everybody!

Rusty's looking a lot better.
1290. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
636 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

FLZ021-022-251215-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
636 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA AND EASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 637 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF WELLBORN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WELLBORN...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...LAKE CITY...FIVE
POINTS AND WATERTOWN THROUGH 715 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Howdy Max!

Aussie, I have the AC on as we speak....
Yes, very warm...I ride my bike 5 miles 5 days a week...I was really "glowing" when I was done this morning.
1292. LargoFl
wow..stay safe folks......................
1293. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF SEA FOG ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE TAMPA BAY WILL
ALSO EXTEND INLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH PATCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THICKEST PATCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GULF WATERS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING
1294. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can i request an ice bath or a cool breeze, it's a sweat box here again.


Here, let's trade for tomorrow:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-251400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0003.130226T0900Z-130226T2000Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1245 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING
TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30...RISING INTO THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You've said that before, then spent the next hour talking with me on Facebook.

Except this time, I really did go to bed:)

Did you get any actual severe weather last night?
*knows there will be a long wait time for a response*
An eye is becoming increasingly visible with Rusty this morning. Let's see if it can maintain this time.

Currently 28F in Amarillo with sustained winds at 35 knots (40 mph, gusts 50 knots - 58 mph) and a visibility of 1/4 mile. Heavy snowfall, with 8 inches already accumulated.

1300. pcola57
Good Booming morning All..
Slept very little last night..
Shut down computer..
Too much lightening..
1.72" since midnight..

WOCN11 CWTO 250936
Special weather statement
Monday 25 February 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Potential winter storm Tuesday night and Wednesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over Texas is forecast to intensify and move
northeastward to pass near Southern Ontario Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are likely with this
system. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty
regarding which areas will see mostly rain or snow, as temperatures
will be fairly close to the freezing mark.

Current indications suggest that precipitation will begin Tuesday
afternoon as rain over areas south of a line from Sarnia to St
Catharines. The precipitation will change over to wet snow by early
Tuesday evening and the snow will spread northeastward to South
Central Ontario by late Tuesday evening and to Eastern Ontario by
Wednesday morning. Some areas, especially to the west and northwest
of Lake Ontario and including the Greater Toronto area, could see
snowfall amounts as high as 15 cm through Wednesday morning with this
system. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the
precipitation phases, and if precipitation falls as rain instead, or
if the snow is too wet and it melts when it contacts the ground,
these snowfall totals could be considerably less. Areas near the
Lake Ontario shoreline are also likely to have lower amounts due to
mixing with rain.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring the situation.
This statement will be updated to include additional information as
it becomes available regarding the evolution of this potential winter
storm.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

End

Rusty still looks like an overloaded dryer with a fabric softener sheet rather than a tropical cyclone with an eye.
1305. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BAKER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EXTREME SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 845 AM EST

* AT 807 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACCLENNY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MACCLENNY AND BRYCEVILLE.
1306. pcola57
Quoting biff4ugo:
Rusty still looks like an overloaded dryer with a fabric softener sheet rather than a tropical cyclone with an eye.


Nice scientific description biff..Lol.. :)
1307. pcola57
Modis Image of TC Rusty this am..

Link

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1309. pcola57
Quick TC Rusty update..

According to Navy/NRL TC Rusty just 51nm from Port Hedland ATM..
Appears EWRC currently ongoing..
Latest From Navy/Nrl..



Link

Slow mover..



SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
WTXS32 PGTW 250900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
Well no mod risk, ill eat the crow



SPC AC 251230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ARKLATEX...GULF
COASTAL PLAIN FROM E TX TO SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE STG/CLOSED CYCLONE
NOW CENTERED OVER TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...AND
PROGRESSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR PAC NW COAST. LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR NWRN CONUS...AMPLIFYING MORE AND REACHING FROM
WRN MT TO UT BY 12Z. AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...500-MB
CYCLONE OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TURN EWD THEN ENEWD...REACHING RED
RIVER AREA NEAR ADM BY 00Z THEN E-CENTRAL/NERN AR BETWEEN LIT-MEM BY
12Z.

RELATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED OVER NW TX INITIALLY...SHOULD DEEPEN AND
OCCLUDE THROUGH PERIOD. SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR MORE
SLOWLY THAN MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THEN SHOULD
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER ERN AR AROUND END OF PERIOD.
PAC/ARCTIC COLD FRONTS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE REACHING FROM LOW SEWD ACROSS SE TX COAST BY
00Z...THEN OVER WRN TN...AL...AND WRN PANHANDLE OF FL BY 12Z.
MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MS RIVER MOUTH AREA WSWWD TO MID
TX COAST AND EWD ACROSS GULF WATERS TO NRN FL PENINSULA...DRIFTING
N. POLEWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY COMBINATION
OF WEAK MID-UPPER SUPPORT AND PRESENCE OF PROFUSE CONVECTION/PRECIP
TO ITS N. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT EXTENSIVE CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD AND
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA...WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER PORTIONS
SERN LA...SRN MS/AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PROBABLY SRN GA.

...GULF COAST STATES AND SRN GA...
TOTAL SVR THREAT IS AGGREGATION OF TWO TEMPORALLY SEPARATED
REGIMES...BUT PRIMARILY RELATED TO SECOND...

1. EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP IS ONGOING N OF WARM
FRONT OVER THIS REGION...FROM SWRN LA TO SRN GA AND MUCH OF FL
PANHANDLE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SRH VALUES...PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO
WARM FRONT...SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OR BOW-SHAPED CLUSTERS ALONG SRN RIM OF PRECIP FIELD THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND OFFSHORE.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUSTS INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE
LAYER IS SHALLOWEST. ANY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES INLAND ALSO MAY POSE MRGL WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT
GREATER WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

2. AS COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND MOVES EWD INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH AFTERNOON...BKN BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP...FROM
ARKLATEX REGION SWD ACROSS BPT/LCH AREA AND WRN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA AND SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS BOTH
SIDES OF MARINE FRONT...AS LATTER BOUNDARY LIFTS N BEHIND MORNING
CONVECTION. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL YIELD
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS. WIND AND TORNADO
RISKS...FROM EITHER SUPERCELL OR BOW MODES...ARE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT IN NARROW AREA OF SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. HAIL IS MORE PROBABLE W OF MS RIVER WHERE
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GREATEST...AS MANIFEST ALREADY IN
12Z SHV RAOB.

SUPERCELLS...BOWS AND STG MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALSO MAY DEVELOP S OF
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND...ONCE AGAIN RAMPING UP SVR RISK FOR COASTAL AREAS PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN FOR BOTH FRONTAL AND
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC/40-50 KT FLOW IN 800-900 MB LAYER. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC-BASED
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY GETTING AS FAR E AS SWRN GA AND CENTRAL-ERN FL
PANHANDLE.

..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 02/25/2013
Lot of rain:

1312. MahFL
Port Headland seems to get hit quite a bit.
1313. ncstorm