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January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I always seem to post things right as Dr. Jeff Masters updates his blog :<(

I didn't realize it had been so cold in Asia.

Thanks Dr. for another good post
Heavy rain event possible along the TX and LA coasts as some models pegging 4 inches somewhere. Pacific jet is in full throttle.

Thanks Jeff...



Looks like some VERY VERY SEVERE stuff coming. One rarely sees 3 days out like this!
Areas with 10,000 Bq/m² of radioactivity considered "highly contaminated" by study — Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level, 8% of nation

Published: February 16th, 2012 at 8:34 am ET By ENENews

Japan’s science ministry says 8 per cent of the country’s surface area has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.
It says more than 30,000 square kilometres of the country has been blanketed by radioactive caesium.
The ministry says most of the contamination was caused by four large plumes of radiation spewed out by the Fukushima nuclear plant in the first two weeks after meltdowns.
The government says some of the radioactive material fell with rain and snow, leaving the affected areas with accumulations of more than 10,000 becquerels of caesium per square metre. [...]
Where can you find GFS and ECMWF maps that you can copy to this blog, the ones here on wunderground cannot be copied.

Thanks in advance.

Also the ECMWF is back to predicting a Tennessee to Mid-Atlantic Snow, but the GFS is more northerly, there is a good chance it will snow somewhere
Quoting Jeff Masters:
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.
I very much look forward to hearing your take on this matter, Dr. Masters. Not much new info, though, if you ask me; anyone who cares to have looked can see that there's some big $$$ riding on keeping climate science quashed--and those pulling the strings will stop at almost nothing to make sure their mission is accomplished.

A any rate, thanks for the update...
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looks like some VERY VERY SEVERE stuff coming. One rarely sees 3 days out like this!

The SPC is calling for supercells, and organized clusters of severe storms that will produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, maybe strong ones. Cites like New Orleans, Mobile, Columbus, and Tallahassee will be some of the hardest hit cities.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
Wait a minute, I got six likes from the same user names i think Neapolitan mentioned yesterday. Even Giovanna Datoli.

Hmmmmmm....
Quoting RitaEvac:
Heavy rain event possible along the TX and LA coasts as some models pegging 4 inches somewhere. Pacific jet is in full throttle.




Bring it on!!!
Dr. Masters. Thanks for these revelations to the "blogoshpere."
It appears from the temperature anomalies chart at the top that about 80% of the upper Northern latitudes were a lot warmer than average during January.
This will probably not bode well as we return to sunshine hours from March onwards leading to a kick-start of ice melting.
Things are growing well in the UK now and we mowed the lawn today in mid February for the first time ever, about a month earlier than usual.
We must of course try and keep open minds so early in the year in order to give every theory an equal chance.
Powerhouse low over northern Baja coming around, massive lift coming with this one as it nears the gulf. Southern track, Pacific flow feeding in, equals= large rain event
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wait a minute, I got six likes from the same user names i think Neapolitan mentioned yesterday. Even Giovanna Datoli.

Hmmmmmm....

This probably can be construed as a conspiracy and you could be the chosen leader!
With grounds being saturated, run off will become heavy to excessive, this is exactly what is needed in TX
Quoting RitaEvac:
With grounds being saturated, run off will become heavy to excessive, this is exactly what is needed in TX


Yes it is. We will likely have some flooding problems but I wont complain because we need all the rain we can get before the summer gets here
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41


That's pretty sad
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41


Not enough or TOO MUCH.....Dam
Offshore Rains





Super Cells east of Brownsville

Quoting Neapolitan:
I very much look forward to hearing your take on this matter, Dr. Masters. Not much new info, though, if you ask me; anyone who cares to have looked can see that there's some big $$$ riding on keeping climate science quashed--and those pulling the strings will stop at almost nothing to make sure their mission is accomplished.

A any rate, thanks for the update...


The guy from UVA is well-known to be in the pockets of the oil industry -- the other members of the department there are just stunned that no one appears to care about this fact besides them.
Quoting Xeloi:


The guy from UVA is well-known to be in the pockets of the oil industry -- the other members of the department there are just stunned that no one appears to care about this fact besides them.
Once the oil industry figures out how to market itself along the lines of "Clean Coal" they will calm down.. Don't forget that its not only the oil companies, but also a few countries whose economies are tied to the globes continued oil consumption. There is a whole lotta money available to all these folks to use as they wish.. imho
wow, 19th warmest.....that is not significant at all, next thing you know people will start shouting gw because the month ranked 200th warmest....good greif.
it appears the GFS has possible snow storm dropping most of it over virginia, and western NC.
What happened to Giovanna's track? O_o It went from hitting Mozambique, to going out to sea and now turning around back into Madagascar all within 24 hours!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't drink and dive.
Quoting SPLbeater:
it appears the GFS has possible snow storm dropping most of it over virginia, and western NC.


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....


GFS gives the heaviest areas of snow 4-6 inches i believe. western VA
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....
gee weather channel is all over this storm,if the storm tracks over the water near D.C you could see a nice snowfall, if the storm tracks on land it might be a rain and wind event, still too early to predict they say, days away, i do notice here around tampa bay, they have upped our rain chances to 30% which for us is good news
13S really dont look good
Quoting Ameister12:

The SPC is calling for supercells, and organized clusters of severe storms that will produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, maybe strong ones. Cites like New Orleans, Mobile, Columbus, and Tallahassee will be some of the hardest hit cities.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
a few more months from now and this would have been at the very least a strong tropical storm
Quoting SPLbeater:
wow, 19th warmest.....that is not significant at all, next thing you know people will start shouting gw because the month ranked 200th warmest....good greif.
Would 115th coolest sound better to you? ;-)
6 sunlinepr [quoting ENENews] "Areas with 10,000[becquerels per square metre] of radioactivity considered "highly[*]contaminated" by study -- Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level"

Which is equivalent to a square with sides of 172kilometers(~107miles). The number that keeps popping up to provide electrical power to the US with solar energy is a 100miles squared (10,000square-miles) of desert.
Since Japan has created a desert as far as farming or human habitation is concerned, they might as well go "all solar" electricity production on their new (and involuntary) wildlife preserve.

* Though it appears that ENENews is being hyperbolic in its usage when up to 4,700 becquerels appeared in surveys done before the Fukushima meltdowns -- apparently carried in by the weather from nuclear bomb testing worldwide -- and up to 8,000 becquerels per kilogram of material can be disposed of as normal trash.
if nobody was issuing advisories on 13S, i could glance at the satellite of S Indian and not even recognize it.
Can't wait for Dr. M's blog on anti climate change. Aka global warming.....
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something


Snow line keeps shifting southeastward, cmon keep it comin!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing


I bet in the comments on this blog and on the one his is going to post on climate change, several things will be restated several, or more, times.



A good amount of rain in the Mid-Atlantic Region
The odd thing about part of the climate leak..about Heartland having to do with passing laws to have public schools teach antiscience that are pro oil & such..I posted about this a few weeks ago. The laws have already passed in TX & LA. Other states they are on the table. Currently the FL book curriculum for 2nd graders is very pro-feel good about oil/rigs & such with little else for energy sources mentioned. This really isn't new, maybe just generally unnoticed.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something


Can you understand how a changing climate changes storm frequency and intensity?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I bet in the comments on this blog and on the one his is going to post on climate change, several things will be restated several, or more, times.

It's like they are beating a dead horse, over, and over, and over, and over, and over again.


And plussing their comments over, over, and over again. Let's just stick to storms. At least that's what I'll do here with you couple folks. It's okay if the others talk about climate. I have no problem with that. It is good to know though that storms are a priority with some folks instead of climate and politics. At least that's the way I see it...
Quoting Skyepony:
The odd thing about part of the climate leak..about Heartland having to do with passing laws to have public schools teach antiscience that are pro oil..I posted about this a few weeks ago. The laws have already passed in TX & LA. Other states they are on the table. Currently the FL book curriculum for 2nd graders is very pro-feel good about oil/rigs & such with little else for energy sources mentioned. This really isn't new, maybe just generally unnoticed.


This info that someone inside the Institute apparently leaked names names and puts monthly payments to those names. It moves the discussion beyond speculation that the Institute and its players are funded by fossil fuel interests.

Quoting BobWallace:


Can you understand how a changing climate changes storm frequency and intensity?



You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something
It may be boring to some people, for sure. But many knowledgeable earth scientists are convinced it's one of the most important issues of our time, one that threatens to cause societal upheaval on a global scale unlike anything ever seen, and that makes it more than interesting to me. I mean, it may not be as exciting as talking about Justin Lin or Whitney Houston or whomever/whatever, but still... ;-)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?

The force of Gravity is a theory as well.
Why are they still using 1971-2000 data for comparison?
Quoting pottery:

The force of Gravity is a theory as well.


True, but it can be seen through observation over and over. Increasing storms strength and frequency can not, as of yet.
Quoting pottery:

The force of Gravity is a theory as well.

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 foot cliff sometime and let me know what happpens. No, don't. Really. Don't do that.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 cliff sometime and let me know what happpens.


Gravity is not a law, there are "Laws of Gravity" but the whole concept of gravity itself, and what it actually does to the space-time fabric is a theory.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Gravity is not a law, there are "Laws of Gravity" but the whole concept of gravity itself, and what it actually does to the space-time fabric is a theory.

Thanks for the clarification.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks for the clarification.


Anytime. Physics major... I have to know these things haha.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 foot cliff sometime and let me know what happpens. No, don't. Really. Don't do that.


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?
Quoting Neapolitan:
It may be boring to some people, for sure. But many knowledgeable earth scientists are convinced it's one of the most important issues of our time, one that threatens to cause societal upheaval on a global scale unlike anything ever seen, and that makes it more than interesting to me. I mean, it may not be as exciting as talking about Justin Lin or Whitney Houston or whomever/whatever, but still... ;-)

That would be Jeremy Lin.
Quoting pottery:


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?

At least you have a sense of humor. :p
Quoting pottery:


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?


Actually, you are falling with style... please get it right ;)
59. MTWX
Quoting pottery:


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?

Wow, never actually seen it shown as a Standard measurement.. Alway remembered 9.8 meters/second squared
Quoting Neapolitan:
It may be boring to some people, for sure. But many knowledgeable earth scientists are convinced it's one of the most important issues of our time, one that threatens to cause societal upheaval on a global scale unlike anything ever seen, and that makes it more than interesting to me. I mean, it may not be as exciting as talking about Justin Lin or Whitney Houston or whomever/whatever, but still... ;-)


I understand how important it is, but that does not mean we need to spend hours saying the same things over and over again, especially when no one is changing their mind. Whether or not climate change is true, false, or somewhat true, it is not an effective use of time to discuss it excessively.

And we dont need to talk about Jeremy Lin or Whitney Houston either. Storms are much more exciting.
Quoting MTWX:

Wow, never actually seen it shown as a Standard measurement.. Alway remembered 9.8 meters/second squared


Pretty sure its 32 feet a second? 9.8 is used for the equations so it's easier to just use that :p
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?
That's not true, of course; there's ample--and growing--evidence.

Speaking of Virginia, this came out today:
In the Path of the Storm: Global Warming, Extreme Weather, and the Impacts of Weather-Related Disasters in the United States

Weather disasters kill or injure hundreds of Americans each year and cause billions of dollars in economic damage. The risks posed by some types of weather-related disasters will likely increase in a warming world. Scientists have already detected increases in extreme precipitation events and heat waves in the United States, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently concluded that global warming will likely lead to further changes in weather extremes.

Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people %u2013 or roughly four out of five Americans. The breadth and severity of weather-related disasters in the United States %u2013 coupled with the emerging science on the links between global warming and extreme weather %u2013 suggest that the United States should take strong action to reduce emissions of global warming pollution and take steps to protect communities from global warming-fueled extreme weather events.

Weather-related disasters are common in the United States, affecting people in every part of the country. However, the number of people affected by weather-related disasters in 2011 was unusually high, and the number of extremely costly disasters was unprecedented.


Uh-oh
63. MTWX
-
Quoting KeyWestSun:

At least you have a sense of humor. :p
Quoting KeyWestSun:

At least you have a sense of humor. :p

Thanks!
I find it humorous, for true.
I could have chosen Angst, Horror, Disbelief, Consternation.
Humour is kinder on my Spirit :):))
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Actually, you are falling with style... please get it right ;)

True. Sorry! :):))
Quoting TampaSpin:

Translation: "Hey, watch this!"
Quoting MTWX:

Must not follow professional basketball...


I only follow Atlanta teams and their competitors.
But now i remember, he is the guy whose been on the home page of CNN for 3 days now.

I've always wondered if a hook echo could do this:

Now i know.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Pretty sure its 32 feet a second? 9.8 is used for the equations so it's easier to just use that :p

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ha's not true, of course; there's ample--and growing--evidence.

Speaking of Virginia, this came out today:

Uh-oh


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing
its real easy to turn things off
Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.


Really? I always have a stopwatch in hand just in case, never know when you might disprove gravity and be famous forever.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its real easy to turn things off

And this is from the same KEEPEROFTHEGATE who was certain hundreds of thousands would die from Haiti's glance with Paula last year and certain there would be a 7 or 8 magnitude quake following the ring of fire's recent 5-6 range tremors.

Break out of that bubble yet?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Really? I always have a stopwatch in hand just in case, never know when you might disprove gravity and be famous forever.

Brilliant!
Let us know if you find out the Truth.
Oh, and how you felt, after you landed.

heheheheh
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....


It will be rain. We did not sacrifice enough squirrels in October.
Quoting:- 34 Aspectre:-
"Which is equivalent to a square with sides of 172kilometers(~107miles). The number that keeps popping up to provide electrical power to the US with solar energy is a 100miles squared (10,000square-miles) of desert.
Since Japan has created a desert as far as farming or human habitation is concerned, they might as well go "all solar" electricity production on their new (and involuntary) wildlife preserve"

Well its not a physical desert but certainly from a human point of view its going to be as inhospitable as one.
The wildlife will take over completely and due to the radiation presence which may increase dramatically with more problems, some new sub species could evolve.
The problems facing turning the area into a solar farm will be overcome by automation and robotics, so what better use for it other than as you say a "wildlife park and energy farm." It could be the first of many the way things are going!
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 foot cliff sometime and let me know what happpens. No, don't. Really. Don't do that.


Gravity isn't a law. It is a very well established theory. Just like the laws of thermodynamics. There is an enormous amount of evidence in support of these theories, making them practically inviolate, but they are still theories. For example, scientists still are doing quite a bit of research on gravity.

If you're just looking at the utmost trivial aspects of gravity (as in your example), then you can trivially call it a law. But in the scientific community that is not the case.
Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.

Galileo was the first to formally investigate gravity experimentally. Before that there was the "you first" theory of gravity. People generally knew better than to jump off a cliff. As Pottery's comment suggests, The denialist position on climate is a lot like people who when told "You first." replied "Okay. Watch this!" For the result see Tampa Spin's video. :)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Gravity isn't a law. It is a very well established theory. Just like the laws of thermodynamics. There is an enormous amount of evidence in support of these theories, making them practically inviolate, but they are still theories. For example, scientists still are doing quite a bit of research on gravity.

If you're just looking at the utmost trivial aspects of gravity (as in your example), then you can trivially call it a law. But in the scientific community that is not the case.

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?
Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.


Acceleration due to gravity is approximately 9.8 m/s/s which is roughly equivalent to 32 feet/sec/sec . This varies a little bit depending on where you are and how far off the ground you are. :)
Quoting TampaSpin:



For illustration purposes only. Do not attempt this at home.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?

If I may...

Gravity, unlike Climate, currently shows no sign of 'changing' in any way.
But if you send a couple of million bucks to Branson at Virgin Airlines, he can give you an anti-gravity experience in a couple of years....
The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.
There's a huge difference between "blindly following authority" and accepting what the overwhelming majority of scientists say. After all, I've never autopsied the lung of a cancer patient who died from a three pack-a-day habit--but I'm perfectly willing to listen to an oncologist who has, and who tells me that cigarettes did the killing.

It's true that tornado activity doesn't seem to have increased. Then again, tornado activity vis-a-vis climate change is an area in which there isn't much confidence yet, as there is for, say, precipitation and temperature increases, etc.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That would be Jeremy Lin.
Oops. My bad. I have a relative in the basketball Hall of Fame--a second cousin once removed--yet I'm just not all that interested in the sport. So far as spectator team sports, I'll take football and baseball any day... ;-)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.


Really hard to make a decent forecast from that.
That's a pretty wide spread...
Commenting on:-77. bappit
"For the result see Tampa Spin's video"
The interesting thing with the video is that what was expected to happen, didn't.
This is because nobody thought to check the state of the "medium" had changed, even though probably everybody knew the medium could change. The results were funny to us and to them as well in reality.
The problem that we are dealing with with climate change is in a way about the same as the video, the medium has changed, everybody's diving into the future and nobody is really prepared for what the consequences might be.
The question must probably be:- Who's going to make the global video after we've dived into the future?
Here...hold my beer and watch this. Alcohol, altitude and gravity do not mix.
Quoting JupiterKen:
Here...hold my beer and watch this. Alcohol, altitude and gravity do not mix.

WAIT!
Don't forget to turn the camera on.
We want to watch this!

:):))
Quoting PlazaRed:
Commenting on:-77. bappit
"For the result see Tampa Spin's video"
The interesting thing with the video is that what was expected to happen, didn't.
This is because nobody thought to check the state of the "medium" had changed, even though probably everybody knew the medium could change. The results were funny to us and to them as well in reality.
The problem that we are dealing with with climate change is in a way about the same as the video, the medium has changed, everybody's diving into the future and nobody is really prepared for what the consequences might be.
The question must probably be:- Who's going to make the global video after we've dived into the future?

Sobering thought, that.
Shouldn't be allowed, frankly.
What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?

I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?


Maybe they dissipated?
Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/

Sorry to say this, but we can't fix stupid.

(sorry, you left the door open there!)
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?


While not impossible, it is unlikely. If a massive chunk of non-baryonic matter happened to somehow get stuck around Earth (or the moon) it would have an influence. Other more destructive methods would be the Earth losing more mass than it is gaining, or vice versa.

If the GUT is ever developed and gravity can be described as just another facet of, say, electro-magnetism, then a device could be constructed that could convert electricity into an inverse gravitational field (thus allowing you to float). Of course, if we make it to that point the world we be much different place.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its real easy to turn things off


what the heck you mean by that? I NOTICE NO CHANGE IN MY AREA, so nothing is changing here.
Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/


Just go to Australia it will just fall right off the earth.
Quoting pottery:

Brilliant!
Let us know if you find out the Truth.
Oh, and how you felt, after you landed.

heheheheh


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?

You mean Giovanni Datoli, don't you? Giovanna, as you doubtless recall, was banned some months ago. But I don't know what's going on. Why don't you tell us?
Quoting pottery:

Really hard to make a decent forecast from that.
That's a pretty wide spread...


Yes I agree as the spread is relativly big. But the most probable outcome is to be Neutral when things count,by the peak of the hurricane season,unless El Nino makes a big appearance. Here is the text update. By the way,I have a Caribbean blog where you can post weather related things that occur in Trinidad & Tobago.

Link
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D
\
Thanks, but.....
That's a little harsh..
he was joking, surely.
With the lunar module and a mountain as a backdrop, David Scott recreates Galileo's famous gravity experiment in a low-gravity vacuum by letting a hammer and falcon's feather fall to the ground.

Good news on OSCAT

A Look at the New Oceansat-2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) over Tropical Cyclones


Excerpt:

At first glance, the OSCAT scatterometer appears to be on par with the QuikSCAT sensor in its ability to accurately depict tropical cyclone positions and outer wind structure, and to provide a minimum (at least) value of maximum intensity. As was the case with the old QuikSCAT data, applications of the OSCAT data requires a learning process for using not only the wind vectors, but also the ambiguities in order to make the most of the data. These early results, along with its 90% daily coverage over the tropical oceans, suggests a valuable tool will soon be available for aiding the world's tropical cyclone forecasting centers in maintaining improved forecasts and warnings.


There is a ton of papers to be presented at the upcoming AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Hopefully after the conference links to full papers will be provided.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes I agree as the spread is relativly big. But the most probable outcome is to be Neutral when things count,by the peak of the hurricane season,unless El Nino makes a big appearance. Here is the text update. By the way,I have a Caribbean blog where you can post weather related things that occur in Trinidad & Tobago.

Link

Thanks, I will post there when things start to happen...

Actually, we are still getting showers which is a big relief.
Cooler than 'normal' too.
68F the other morning.
Freezing, man!
Quoting Patrap:
With the lunar module and a mountain as a backdrop, David Scott recreates Galileo's famous gravity experiment in a low-gravity vacuum by letting a hammer and falcon's feather fall to the ground.


Nice, Pat.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.


There are several inaccuracies in your comment.

For starters, yes, there has been a trend in tornado activity observations. But based upon population changes, improved detection capabilities, and improved storm surveying, the accuracy of that trend in the observations is low. There is not yet enough data to indicate what the trend is, or if there is one. That is different than saying that there "is no trend."
Many tornadoes have been rated since the 1950s. Ratings became much more common from the 1970s onward. Doppler radar helped us detect weaker tornadoes - and thus survey them - in the 1990s. The 1990s would be the best starting point, but from there you would find no statistical significance of any trend, or a lack there of.

Although scientific work continues with regards to hurricanes and climate change, I'm not sure I've read much of anything suggesting "they always seem to gravitate... toward its natural." If they have not pinned down what hurricanes are doing (as you claim), how could they then gravitate toward "its natural?"
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D


Yeah I was completely serious, I'm sure you are much brighter than me though.
Quoting pottery:

Thanks, I will post there when things start to happen...

Actually, we are still getting showers which is a big relief.
Cooler than 'normal' too.
68F the other morning.
Freezing, man!


I forgot to mention that there are a few web cams in the blog from different islands of the Caribbean that you will like to see and follow how is the weather around this Carib basin. I will try to post a few more soon.
Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/


OK, you only tested gravity's effect on water. Now, try a milkshake and see if you get the same results. ;-) Suggestion: start with a very small milkshake.
OUCH! Sometimes the hurt comes later and sometimes right away.

Just like Dr. Masters’s post. The statement that there are no billion dollar weather disasters in January is likely to be false.
The LACK of Snow no only affects snow and ski industries now, but in the spring, when that missing snow does not melt,is when the price tag shows up. This big spring time drought may be very expensive for water supply later in the year. Would you count the drought as a disaster in a different month, when causal the weather event or lack there of,happened in January?
I hope I'm wrong and we get a wet spell for the rest of the winter.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


There are several inaccuracies in your comment.

For starters, yes, there has been a trend in tornado activity observations. But based upon population changes, improved detection capabilities, and improved storm surveying, the accuracy of that trend in the observations is low. There is not yet enough data to indicate what the trend is, or if there is one. That is different than saying that there "is no trend."

Although scientific work continues with regards to hurricanes and climate change, I'm not sure I've read much of anything suggesting "they always seem to gravitate... toward its natural." If they have not pinned down what hurricanes are doing (as you claim), how could they then gravitate toward "its natural?"


First off, there has been no trend in tornado increase, as you will see here:



And second I meant it is natural for scientist's to see what is going on currently and change their mind on what might occur in the future.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


OK, you only tested gravity's effect on water. Now, try a milkshake and see if you get the same results. ;-) Suggestion: start with a very small milkshake.

It gets really interesting when you try that with a balloon filled with crankcase oil. In your living room.
The results vary, of course.
Depends on whether you have tile, carpet, a spouse, etc.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I forgot to mention that there are a few web cams in the blog from different islands of the Caribbean that you will like to see and follow how is the weather around this Carib basin. I will try to post a few more soon.

Thanks.
Will be there>>>>>>


Out for now.
I was just out checking the world of E-cat, and discovered a new word being added to the English language. Kirvit

The verbiage is from a comment after this article.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2012/02/rossi-on-dick-s miths-offer-i-do-not-need-his-money/
Link

Link link for the Official E-cat sight for the curious.

The D on February 15, 2012 at 2:47 am

Ignore him, he’s just a kirvit.

REF:

“Steve Robb
I hereby declare the coining of two new words:
krivit, verb,
to attack the idea or character of a person by many specious arguments while lying hidden behind a blog. Frequently the behavior has a puppet like character and the invective snake-like.

Krivit, noun,
person who does the above.

Example: Ignore him, he’s just another Krivit.
Example: His hissing, kriviting sound grates on my ears.”

Kudos to Steve… for enriching the English language. These words are very useful.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


First off, there has been no trend in tornado increase, as you will see here:



That is a plot of only a subset of tornadoes. You original claim was about tornadoes in general.

The surveying methods for tornadoes in the 1950s are different from survey methods of today. Building codes and housing quality have also changed. Even as your graph of EF3-EF5 tornadoes indicates, data does show a trend, but due to the issues noted already, there would not be a way to show a statistically significant trend in either direction, let alone indicate no trend. On a side note, some preliminary studies have indicated a decrease in tornado activity due to climate change. But due to survey issues, it is not something we can accurately detect yet.

Also of note... hurricanes and tornadoes are not the only types of extreme weather. There have been noted increases in extreme weather using the climate extremes index, and there have been meteorological/climate mechanisms proposed by which extreme weather (including cold spells) increase in duration under climate change.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That is a plot of only a subset of tornadoes. You original claim was about tornadoes in general.

The surveying methods for tornadoes in the 1950s are different from survey methods of today. Building codes and housing quality have also changed. Even as your graph of EF3-EF5 tornadoes indicates, data does show a trend, but due to the issues noted already, there would not be a way to show a statistically significant trend in either direction, let alone indicate no trend. On a side note, some preliminary studies have indicated a decrease in tornado activity due to climate change. But due to survey issues, it is not something we can accurately detect yet.

Also of note... hurricanes and tornadoes are not the only types of extreme weather. There have been noted increases in extreme weather using the climate extremes index, and there have been meteorological/climate mechanisms proposed by which extreme weather (including cold spells) increase in duration under climate change.


Well like you said, tornado detection ability has gone up enormously, however while you may need a doppler on wheels to see a F-0 or 1 in the middle of a field, you don't need one for F-3's through 5. If the number of tornadoes has increased and the same percentage of those tornadoes were extreme wouldn't the number of extreme go up? It is logical that it would, and in no way am I saying that there are not more droughts, or long term climate effects. I was just commenting on the frequency and strength of individual storms.
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (993 hPa) located at 25.1S 41.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
Eastern semi-circle and up to 50 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 41.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.3S 41.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 42.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.8S 43.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, SSMIS date of 1458 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambique coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) or a southeastwards very slowly and then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS)

However, the ECMWF ensemble still gives a strong weight to the southeastwards and eastwards scenario...and the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond 72 hours. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Maputo should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well like you said, tornado detection ability has gone up enormously, however while you may need a doppler on wheels to see a F-0 or 1 in the middle of a field, you don't need one for F-3's through 5. If the number of tornadoes has increased and the same percentage of those tornadoes were extreme wouldn't the number of extreme go up? It is logical that it would, and in no way am I saying that there are not more droughts, or long term climate effects. I was just commenting on the frequency and strength of individual storms.


Ah, yes, but you also are only looking at tornadoes in the contiguous 48 U.S. states. Think globally. What does this tell us? Are we seeing more frequent tornadoes in areas where they have previously been rare or non existent? Fewer tornadoes in previously otherwise active regions? Have they become stronger in some areas and weaker in others? This would be an indication that something is changing, concerning tornadoes... I do not know the answer to these questions. Perhaps worthy of a study?
Quoting SPLbeater:


what the heck you mean by that? I NOTICE NO CHANGE IN MY AREA, so nothing is changing here.


the land mourns, and all who live in it waste away; the beasts of the field and the birds of the air and the fish of the sea.
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


Warmer waters? Stronger winds? Changing currents? I do not know.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah, yes, but you also are only looking at tornadoes in the contiguous 48 U.S. states. Think globally. What does this tell us? Are we seeing more frequent tornadoes in areas where they have previously been rare or non existent? Fewer tornadoes in previously otherwise active regions? Have they become stronger in some areas and weaker in others? This would be an indication that something is changing, concerning tornadoes... I do not know the answer to these questions. Perhaps worthy of a study?


It would be a wonderful study to do, it would have to be a very long one, there would be no way to tell if data from other areas is accurate, and no way to tell if what occurs in the short term is a trend or natural cycles of tornadic storms in any particular area. The more data the better, means less and less guess work.
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


2 words - Global Warming-
If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It would be a wonderful study to do, it would have to be a very long one, there would be no way to tell if data from other areas is accurate, and no way to tell if what occurs in the short term is a trend or natural cycles of tornadic storms in any particular area. The more data the better, means less and less guess work.


I agree. You make very good points. We do have starting points here that are probably stronger than the starting points elsewhere around the globe.
All I need is the funding: PayPal --------->
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?
That anomaly map is for January.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree. You make very good points. We do have starting points here that are probably stronger than the starting points elsewhere around the globe.
All I need is the funding: PayPal --------->


Million dollars good to start off? ;)
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of
temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?


Totally agree with you. I guess it is our GW scientists manipulating the data.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That anomaly map is for January.


yes i know, then why are they freaking out about snowstorms in Italy and records breaking temperatures FOR JANUARY if its above normal?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Million dollars good to start off? ;)


1/10 of that will start me off. I have to buy a suitcase and few clothing items first, but I do work cheap. ;-) I am just going to gather the data. Someone else can crunch the numbers. My Intel 8088 would take too long.
130. wxmod
Ganges delta to Himalaya, 400 miles north to south. Today. The human volcano.

Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes i know, then why are they freaking out about snowstorms in Italy and records breaking temperatures FOR JANUARY if its above normal?


Most of january was well above average temps, the end of january - beginning of february has been cold.
Quoting wxmod:
Ganges delta to Himalaya, 400 miles north to south. Today. The human volcano.



Imagine, if you will, that CO2 was so visible to the unaided eye. I would imagine there would less time spent debating and more efforts spent towards mitigation.
Quoting FFtrombi:


Most of january was well above average temps, the end of january - beginning of february has been cold.


this blog/noaa/nws and news media has been talking about frozen rivers in venice, eastern europe, snow in italy and spain like its going out of style since after christmas, id say that all of europe needs to have shmedium blue dots. It was made by a human so im sure they had to throw their two cents in on top of the computer data!
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


this blog/noaa/nws and news media has been talking about frozen rivers in venice, eastern europe, snow in italy and spain like its going out of style since after christmas, id say that all of europe needs to have shmedium blue dots. It was made by a human so im sure they had to throw their two cents in on top of the computer data!


Ditto....
135. wxmod
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Imagine, if you will, that CO2 was so visible to the unaided eye. I would imagine there would less time spent debating and more efforts spent towards mitigation.


'Invisible' is a problem for some people, isn't it. Another problem that's hard to communicate is that the atmosphere is only a few miles top to bottom and there's not much of it. The satellite photos of the visible smog are the tip of the iceberg. The people in those countries under the thick smog seem to be helpless to do anything about it. As the worlds biggest consumers, we have to quit buying junk and quit throwing it away. Their smog and ours comes from US.
Cold air goes south, warm air goes north.
ok well eeybody talkin about the non changing climate again, so im out of here before i turn into one of em lol

Be back when the weathers back.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?


It is expected that gravity (Earth's gravity) will change over time, just very, very, very slowly. The amount of mass of the Earth changes very slightly as we get stuck from 'incoming' stuff from space.

We also anticipated a changing climate, one that changes over tens and hundreds of thousands of years.

The alarming thing we're observing is that the climate is now changing very, very rapidly. If gravity were to change as rapidly then your floating around (or getting squished into a puddle) would likely happen in your lifetime.

The threat for a significant Severe Weather outbreak continues this afternoon as models continue to predict a strengthening area of low pressure to cross southern Texas into the Gulf of Mexico and then potentially up the East Coast as we head throughout the weekend. This low will ultimately decide whether or not the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic receives a snowstorm or not.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Slight risk of Severe Weather on Saturday stretching from west of New Orleans east to Jacksonville, FL, and then up to just south of Virginia Beach, VA. Within this slight risk, the SPC has issued a 30% probabilistic area stretching from just west of New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL. In this area, many tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon, along with large hail and damaging winds. The threat will switch northward as we head into the evening and overnight areas.

It isn't everyday that the SPC issues a 30% area on a Day 3 outlook, and we may be looking at a Moderate risk before this event is over with.

NOAA

Global Marketing Insights, Inc. is collecting information for NOAA focused on restrictions on the resolution of electro-optical (EO) imagery collected from US satellites that commercial companies may sell and the ways in which this may impact YOUR sector. Proposed changes under consideration include changing the resolution restriction on commercial sales from 0.5 meters ground sample distance (GSD) to 0.25meters GSD.

The Survey will take about 3 minutes to complete. Your response is needed by Wednesday, February 15, 2012.

Please contact: Thomas E. Kerr, Project Manager, 216-525-0600 with questions or to schedule a personal interview.


CLICK HERE to be directed to the survey for your sector

Do we get to dodge a "billion dollar" disaster this year from Missouri/Mississippi flooding? Not much snow on the ground in the upper Midwest.

Quoting BobWallace:
Do we get to dodge a "billion dollar" disaster this year from Missouri/Mississippi flooding? Not much snow on the ground in the upper Midwest.



http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full /National/nsm_depth/201202/nsm_depth_2012021605_Na tional.jpg


the deepest snow in this area is only 3-5 inches and over a very small area...id say thats the last thing that will happen this year...more likely a new madrid earth quake (not really) considering how this winter has gone.
Quoting wxmod:


'Invisible' is a problem for some people, isn't it. Another problem that's hard to communicate is that the atmosphere is only a few miles top to bottom and there's not much of it. The satellite photos of the visible smog are the tip of the iceberg. The people in those countries under the thick smog seem to be helpless to do anything about it. As the worlds biggest consumers, we have to quit buying junk and quit throwing it away. Their smog and ours comes from US.


Here is a very good visual to represent that thought:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.



According to the consensus of the ENSO models,Neutral conditions will be the probable outcome by the Summer.

i really wish the weather channels nick walker would stop saying "eeehh yeah nothing to worry about mainly an appalacian wet snow event this weekend, mostly rain with a few wet snow flakes mixed in along the I-95 corridor from washington to Philly" that fool doesnt know!!!! that s*it changes like female broadcast meteorologist!!!
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for a significant Severe Weather outbreak continues this afternoon as models continue to predict a strengthening area of low pressure to cross southern Texas into the Gulf of Mexico and then potentially up the East Coast as we head throughout the weekend. This low will ultimately decide whether or not the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic receives a snowstorm or not.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Slight risk of Severe Weather on Saturday stretching from west of New Orleans east to Jacksonville, FL, and then up to just south of Virginia Beach, VA. Within this slight risk, the SPC has issued a 30% probabilistic area stretching from just west of New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL. In this area, many tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon, along with large hail and damaging winds. The threat will switch northward as we head into the evening and overnight areas.

It isn't everyday that the SPC issues a 30% area on a Day 3 outlook, and we may be looking at a Moderate risk before this event is over with.


Definitely agree that there is potential for a major outbreak Saturday... As you said, you don't see 30% 3 days out often
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
i really wish the weather channels nick walker would stop saying "eeehh yeah nothing to worry about mainly an appalacian wet snow event this weekend, mostly rain with a few wet snow flakes mixed in along the I-95 corridor from washington to Philly" that fool doesnt know!!!! that s*it changes like female broadcast meteorologist!!!


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Those dates and number coinside with multiple massive volcanic erruptions which cause much lower sunlight throughout earth and much more reflection of its rays when entering the atmosphere, the problem this go round is CLREAR AIR!!! no ash to stop the sun...OH LAWD
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?


For a brief period of time, then we're back to Neutral.
Quoting SPLbeater:


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)
Yea, I don't either, but I still hate seeing bad weather info given. I guess they did not get a look at the newest model runs.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


Those dates and number coinside with multiple massive volcanic erruptions which cause much lower sunlight throughout earth and much more reflection of its rays when entering the atmosphere, the problem this go round is CLREAR AIR!!! no ash to stop the sun...OH LAWD

Well those are very some consistent volcanic eruptions, we must be on a volcanic cycle too, or did CO2 stop that as well?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?



See post #144 about the ENSO models forecast.
Quoting SPLbeater:


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)

lol... I used to love twc... they really ruined it though
For those it may interest: I wrote a blog on our friend Jasmine who sadly dissipated yesterday, as well as a couple other odds and ends.
Comparison.

February 2, 2012:



February 16, 2012:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Well those are very some consistent volcanic eruptions, we must be on a volcanic cycle too, or did CO2 stop that as well?


no errupting volcanoes cause higher CO2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For a brief period of time, then we're back to Neutral.


You must remember that when we come out of a La Nina or El Nino, the models don't really want to transition to the other phase and stay there. If El Nino starts gaining momentum, the climate models will shift accordingly. Need to keep watching the Daily SOI...it has been negative a lot lately.
As is the case with any coastal development, it's timing and location. NWS Raleigh sums it up well.

SEVERE/WINTER WEATHER:
WHETHER OR NOT A SEVERE OR WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS IN ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH (DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC)...THEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ROTATING SFC-BASED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST (ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST)...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU WERE TO PERFECT PROG THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NC. EVEN IF THAT WERE THE CASE...IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION (ASSUMING NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH). AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. -VINCENT

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Looking at your graphic, I would say it is unlikely that we would ever get back to the 0 baseline, anytime soon. This shows that the highest CO2 concentration has been around 320, for the past 450,000 years, and now it is over 380 in the graph's most current year! Currently the CO2 concentration is over 390! A better than 10 point rise in CO2 since the last year of that graph! .... What part of this is it that people just do not see????
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no errupting volcanoes cause higher CO2


I know that, but the other chemicals in volcanic emmisions lead to cooler temperatures. I just find it strange that your volcanoes erupt so regularly.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


See post #144 about the ENSO models forecast.


Yeah, I'm not convinced. I think the models have the right idea with showing El Nino, but I think we will stay in an El Nino period. I went back and looked at the El Nino/La Nina history and anytime we came off of a multi-year (3 years) La Nina, an El Nino period started right behind it. Of course, it seemed to gradually occur, instead of being a rapid change like we've seen in years that El Nino transitioned to La Nina.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Looking at your graphic, I would say it is unlikely that we would ever get back to the 0 baseline, anytime soon. This shows that the highest CO2 concentration has been around 320, for the past 450,000 years, and now it is over 380 in the graph's most current year! Currently the CO2 concentration is over 390! A better than 10 point rise in CO2 since the last year of that graph! .... What part of this is it that people just do not see????


This is getting boring, we've talked about this before, but if you think well get off easy on an 80,00 year ice age just because we cause way too much CO2 emmisions, that isn't very likely.


Also I wonder how reliable data from 300,000 years ago really is....

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

lol... I used to love twc... they really ruined it though
For those it may interest: I wrote a blog on our friend Jasmine who sadly dissipated yesterday, as well as a couple other odds and ends.


you inspire me to post more often....

:D
Back to school stuff....TTYL

Global warming might actually be good for you if you don't like the cold, if it really exists.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I'm not convinced. I think the models have the right idea with showing El Nino, but I think we will stay in an El Nino period. I went back and looked at the El Nino/La Nina history and anytime we came off of a multi-year (3 years) La Nina, an El Nino period started right behind it. Of course, it seemed to gradually occur, instead of being a rapid change like we've seen in years that El Nino transitioned to La Nina.


I dont see a moderate to strong El Nino by the summer or fall,but Neutral to a Weak El Nino status. If that is the case,the Atlantic Hurricane season wont be average or below average.Only if El Nino is between Moderate to Strong,it would cut the numbers.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I know that, but the other chemicals in volcanic emmisions lead to cooler temperatures. I just find it strange that your volcanoes erupt so regularly.


fair enough, im not saying im against what you are saying, i just think without volcanoes erupting we will not go back into another ice age, and that volcanoes produce the CO2 but this time the natural increase in multiplied higher than any past events due to human activity
Sock puppet on parade.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Did you even look at the graph you posted? Did you notice how the green/CO2 line moves much higher than anywhere else on the graph?

Now, will CO2 keep us from suffering another ice age some tens of thousands of years from now? My guess would be no.

Here's how I see it playing out:

1) We get our act together and quit using fossil fuels soon. Then over the next few hundred years the CO2 we've put into the atmosphere drops out bringing our atmospheric blanket back to normal.

or

2) We keep being stupid and burn lots more fossil fuels which drives global temperatures so high that lots of us die. At that point there will be so few of us left that we will decrease our CO2 output and over the following hundred years the CO2 we've put into the atmosphere drops out bringing our atmospheric blanket back to normal.

Either way, I'd guess that 1,000 years or so we'll be back on track for 'normal' climate change and a very slow drift into another ice age.

It's the next few tens and hundreds of years that we need to worry about right now. Dealing with the next ice age is something that can be safely left to the year 3,000 or further.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Comparison.

February 2, 2012:



February 16, 2012:



Interesting and for a sideline:-
There's an awful lot of extra heat in the North Atlantic and over the top of Russia.
Things change fast sometimes.
Quoting Chapelhill:
As is the case with any coastal development, it's timing and location. NWS Raleigh sums it up well.

SEVERE/WINTER WEATHER:
WHETHER OR NOT A SEVERE OR WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS IN ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH (DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC)...THEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ROTATING SFC-BASED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST (ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST)...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU WERE TO PERFECT PROG THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NC. EVEN IF THAT WERE THE CASE...IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION (ASSUMING NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH). AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. -VINCENT



are you a resident of Chapel Hill NC?
even if la nina dies sooner the probability of el nino wont increase take 2008 for example and look what happened after their la nina. it was neutral fro about 6 months. getting another la nina i think is impossible for now but neutral from june to september does make the most sense
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


This is getting boring, we've talked about this before, but if you think well get off easy on an 80,00 year ice age just because we cause way too much CO2 emmisions, that isn't very likely.


Also I wonder how reliable data from 300,000 years ago really is....



Do you doubt Grothar's note taking capabilities?
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?
Lol El Nino!? 1982, 1994, 2006; this hurricane season's list has the worst luck with that.
Quoting SPLbeater:


you inspire me to post more often....

:D

Lol... How come?
Off Topic news to report as one of the great catchers ever to play in the big leagues has died,Gary Carter at 57. Rest in Peace his soul.

Link
GUISE DON'T BELEVE THE SIENTISTS ITS ALL BECUZ OF HAARP IM TELLING YOU WAK UP PPLS!!!1111!!!
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


"too warm", is a relative term. I would venture to say that the climate was always "just right", for the species alive at the time. There are not too many of those species hanging around these days. Should we persist with our self induced warming, we are likely to follow the ones that could not adapt to the same ends.
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


You need to define "too" warm.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... How come?


another tropical weather poster is always a positive on wunderground. and i like reading them. it gives me more inetiative to post
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?
Not sure what was "too warm" then, but that's not really relevant in the context of the current warming. What is relevant is that tha current warming is happening at a very rapid rate--and as the fossil record has shown to be true for hundreds of millions of years back in time, rapid temperature has always been very bad for life on earth.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not sure what was "too warm" then, but that's not really relevant in the context of the current warming. What is relevant is that tha current warming is happening at a very rapid rate--and as the fossil record has shown to be true for hundreds of millions of years back in time, rapid temperature has always been very bad for life on earth.


Uh, Grothar has an excellent sense of humor, but I am not so certain he will find any humor in your referencing him as a "fossil record". ;-)
186. wxmod
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done


This expands your graph to include only the last few years.
Quoting washingtonian115:
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!



uuuuh...where did that avatar come from?!?
So...it's never been too warm then?
Quoting washingtonian115:
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!
Not so fast, remember what happened back in 2004? Floridians sure do, and it's a year they sure would like to forget I bet.
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


As far as I can remember, about 5.
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


Too warm for what?

The Eocene occurred between 53 and 49 million years ago. During the warmest part of the Eocene little to no ice was present on Earth with a smaller difference in temperature from the equator to the poles.

Palm trees grew as far north as Alaska. That means that it was too hot close to the equator for agriculture as we know it.

Ocean temperature in the tropics reached 95 degrees F.

Melting all the Earth's ice would have raised sea levels 80 feet or so. Say goodbye to most of our coastal cities, river communities, all our beaches and major areas like Southern Florida, Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Even parts of the Central Valley of California would turn into an inland sea.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide values during the warmest parts of the Eocene were at 700 – 900 ppm. We're currently at ~390 and adding. We're starting to melt the permafrost which will release a lot of CO2 and methane (which converts into CO2). If we keep on keeping on we are likely to trigger another Eocene like period.



Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you doubt Grothar's note taking capabilities?


Twit!
Quoting JupiterKen:
So...it's never been too warm then?


Are you asking a Siberian Indian on a 90F day or a native Equatorial Indian on a 90F day?
Models are split...El Nino or La Nina?

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Are you asking a Siberian Indian on a 90F day or a native Equatorial Indian on a 90F day?
LOL
Doesn't look like much/

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Models are split...El Nino or La Nina?


I would love the GFDL to come true. Yeah, it would mean a very boring hurricane season, but the following winter would be amazing in terms of snowfall across the South. :D
Quoting Grothar:


As far as I can remember, about 5.


I'm older than you and you are wrong (this may be the only time evah). I played the age card.
Quoting JupiterKen:


I'm older than you and you are wrong (this may be the only time evah).


:)
200. wxmod
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Off Topic news to report as one of the great catchers ever to play in the big leagues has died,Gary Carter at 57. Rest in Peace his soul.

Link


>Carter told Sport magazine that a turning point in his life was the death of his mother when he was 12. Inge Carter suffered from leukemia and died when she was 37.

>"I took it very personally, very hard," Carter said. "One thing it did was turn me off God for a while and onto sports. I really feel everything good I did on a field was for my mother."

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


"too warm", is a relative term. I would venture to say that the climate was always "just right", for the species alive at the time. There are not too many of those species hanging around these days. Should we persist with our self induced warming, we are likely to follow the ones that could not adapt to the same ends.

I cant help but take a dig with this one!
The climate might be just right for the species living on it at the time. (That's probably covered by the first law of universal obviousness,which states that which is obvious needs no further explanation.)
Enter the ingenuity of the humans and we find that probably 50+% of them would not be alive if it was not for their ability to warm themselves artificially, added to this is the temporary ability to travel at will around the planet and transport foods and other needs and we can probably add another few percent.
I would postulate that if humans had no fossil fuels then the true stable population of the planet would probably be self capping at about 1 billion, or about 15% of what it is today.
"No billion-dollar weather disasters in January" Dr. Masters


"In the year ahead, there will be more than a hundred sudden, natural and accidental disasters that will exceed a billion dollars each, and the captain and crew will be as unprepared as you saw on that ship." RW - Jan. 23, 2012

In the past this wording has meant the following year, which would be 2013. For example, the correct forecast, including maps that NASA would be hit in 2008, used the term "coming year," and that was initially made in 2007.

Indeed, NASA's bases were hit twice, directly, in 2008. For such a small agency of the U.S. military, in terms of the number of bases, this was an unprecedented forecast.

However, I believe the uptick in tempo of natural disasters will begin well before the U.S. elections, and will very likely influence their outcome, exactly how I'm unsure.
Atlas V T-0 is now 6:29 p.m. EST. Red for ULW *Upper Level winds*

Selfishly hoping for a scrub so I can head out Saturday, as Friday might be a no-go due to cold front.
SE Texas under a Flood Watch. This system will be interesting to watch as the night goes on through Saturday. SE Texas needs the rain even though we have received above avg so far this year. May have a significant flooding situation on our hands in Houston and places south as all of the run off from the 4-5 inches of rain that occurred yesterday and the day before North of Houston. Something to definitely keep an eye on if you are in SE Texas. We haven't had a significant flood here since 2000 so we are due for one. People need to pay attention and DO NOT DRIVE IN WATER.

DISCUSSION...
AT 20Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SE TX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.4 INCHES...FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD HIGH RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE GROUND
IS SATURATED AND THE AREA HAD SOME FLOODING TROUBLE YESTERDAY.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD ISSUES
SO FEEL IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. REMEMBER...A WATCH
MEANS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ON THESE SATURATED SOILS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. NOT EXACTLY
SURE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ANCHORED AS THE NAM
FAVORS THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS FAVOR THE SOUTH. DECIDED
NOT TO PLAY FAVORITES AND JUST BLANKETED THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
LIKELY POPS. HPC HAS OUTLOOKED SE TX IN SEE TEXT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. SEA FOG IS STILL AN ISSUE AT GALVESTON BUT FEEL
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING
AND END THE FOG THREAT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT. THINK THE REGION WILL
GET A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV SO WILL
LOWER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW BUT DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GETS DRY SLOTTED. THE NAM FOCUSES
THE HEAVY RAIN FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW
AND THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL...ONE ALONG
THE 850 TRACK AND THE OTHER ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS AND AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN. THE JET
DYNAMICS FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS IMPRESSIVE SO FEEL HEAVY RAIN
IS AGAIN A THREAT. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OR RE-
ISSUED FOR LATE FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY FOR POTENTIALLY MORE HEAVY
RAIN.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS AND AGAIN THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING. 43
The 18Z GFS shows a brief period of rain/snow or snow for my area. :O
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



It took less of an energy imbalance to cause those interglacials and glacials than we were causing with greenhouse gases. Within a decade, any impact from another solar minimum would be virtually erased. Over several decades, we would mitigate incoming energy changes due to orbital changes (although the orbital changes occur on much longer timescales than decadal).
Just to your east David we're not under a flood watch for the first system but maybe the second. We'll see how this turns out. Yesterday's rain never made it below I 10, or here. Guess we'll see.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO JUST BEYOND THE COASTAL WATERS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WITH ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIFTING MOISTURE ABOVE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND UP TO I-10...AS DECENT 85H CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED CAPE IS PROGGED. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT 1/2
INCH AREA WIDE OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE COAST. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SOME WET
GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR INTENSITY WILL
BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR THE RIVER SITES THAT
ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS ACADIANA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY POTENT PROVIDING
REALLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AREA WIDE AMOUNTS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AVERAGING AROUND
1.5 INCHES OVER UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTH...AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS PANS
OUT...TO GO ALONG WITH THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLOODING
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND FLOOD WATCH MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WHERE THE WARM
SECTOR COMES ON SHORE. RIGHT NOW THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO LAKE CHARLES LINE. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
I hope the low moves a little more north than it shows of the GFS 18z. GIMME SOME SNOW!



Quoting uncwhurricane85:


fair enough, im not saying im against what you are saying, i just think without volcanoes erupting we will not go back into another ice age, and that volcanoes produce the CO2 but this time the natural increase in multiplied higher than any past events due to human activity


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


AO was Positive Nov thru beginning of January which is bad for making & keeping ice in the Arctic. It really only went negative for ~5 weeks & it showed a little recovery in that time but has turned positive in the last week or so...there goes the ice, blown out to the Atlantic again like it was in December..

Well, here isn't something you see everyday. In the last year we've had some rare storms, SAtl cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones and an unusually well developed invest in the Carb a week or 2 ago. But even those aren't close to what I am seeing right now.

SAB is showing an invest in the SOUTH EAST PACIFIC!

Off the Ecuadorian coast apparently.

Quoting yqt1001:
Well, here isn't something you see everyday. In the last year we've had some rare storms, SAtl cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones and an unusually well developed invest in the Carb a week or 2 ago. But even those aren't close to what I am seeing right now.

SAB is showing an invest in the SOUTH EAST PACIFIC!

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.
True. It would take the equivalent of a Mt. Pinatubo-sized eruption every 13 hours--or a Mount St. Helens-sized eruption every 3 hours--day in and day out, 365 days a year, to produce as much CO2 as humans are currently producing annually. Or to look at it inversely, it takes about 65 hours for our burning of fossil fuels to produce as much CO2 as all the volcanoes in all the world in the course of an entire year.

Source...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?

Forget that... lol... my computer didn't load the image before I posted
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?




TXPS26 KNES 161815
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1745Z

C. 9.9S

D. 85.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
"No billion-dollar weather disasters in January" Dr. Masters


"In the year ahead, there will be more than a hundred sudden, natural and accidental disasters that will exceed a billion dollars each, and the captain and crew will be as unprepared as you saw on that ship." RW - Jan. 23, 2012

In the past this wording has meant the following year, which would be 2013. For example, the correct forecast, including maps that NASA would be hit in 2008, used the term "coming year," and that was initially made in 2007.

Indeed, NASA's bases were hit twice, directly, in 2008. For such a small agency of the U.S. military, in terms of the number of bases, this was an unprecedented forecast.

However, I believe the uptick in tempo of natural disasters will begin well before the U.S. elections, and will very likely influence their outcome, exactly how I'm unsure.


Pray to your weather god for the outcome that fits your agenda.
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL CONCERN SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WITH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM MON-THU GENLY QUIET. LATEST SUITE OF 12Z
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. BY
00Z/SUN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACRS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING INTO LA/MS. GFS IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC AND S CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SUN. HAVE
GENLY BLENDED THE TIMING...WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS OVERSPREADING THE
AKQ CWA FROM SW TO NE...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO AT LEAST LIKELY
ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z/SUN. WITH THIS STAGE OF THE SYSTEM...ONLY A
MODERATE STRENGTH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO BE ALL RAIN AS P-TYPE EVEN IN NW ZONES. IF MODELS
WERE TO TREND COLDER COULD PERHAPS SEE -RA/SN MIX IN
LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BUT WILL NOT HAVE THIS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPR 30S IN MD AND VA ZONES NW OF
RIC...TO THE MID 40S IN SE VA/NE NC. QPF AMOUNTS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM 0.50" OR MORE SE ZONES TO .10-.25" FARTHER NORTH.

BY 12Z/SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT THE SFC LOW ACRS NORTHERN
GA OR SC...SLIDING ENE AND SLIDING OFF THE NC COAST BETWEEN
18Z/SUN-00Z/MON. THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NNW. DURING THIS
TRANSITION PERIOD...MODELS ALL SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT...INCLUDING
PART OF THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C. DID NOT GET
THAT SPECIFIC IN THE GRIDS...CARRYING LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP RATES FOR PART OF
TH DAY. AS UPPER SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTN...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING LIFT WITH -10C TO -20C ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING SATURATED. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER TO BRING
COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THAN THE GFS...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FCST. PER HPC DISCUSSION ON THE INITIALIZATION OF
THE CURRENT TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA BEING BEST HANDLED BY THE
12Z GFS AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF (00Z/16)...WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THE 12Z ECMWF. FCST WILL INDICATE ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FOR SE VA/NE NC...WITH SNOW REACHING NW
COUNTIES BETWEEN 18-21Z SUN...AND TO MUCH OF METRO RICHMOND
BETWEEN 21Z/SUN- 00Z/MON. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS
PTYPE AFTER 00Z...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FORCING AND MSTR WILL
BE LEFT AFTER THAT. FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...BEST CHC
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT FARMVILLE TO
ASHLAND TO SALISBURY MD...GIVE OR TAKE 20 MILES OR SO. THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S PRIOR TO THE
CHANGEOVER AND THEREFORE ACCUMULATION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. FARTHER S/E MUCH OF THE INITIAL SNOW
MAY NOT ACCUMULATE...ALTHOUGH FCST DOES INDICATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
INTO SOUTHERN/SE VA PRIOR TO ENDING BETWEEN 03-06Z/MON. FOR HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS BY AT LEAST 5 F...GIVEN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...ALSO WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.

MON-THU...MID LEVELS RAPIDLY RETURN TO MORE OF A FAST MOVING ZONAL
FLOW...TEMPS STAY CHILLY ON MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT TURN
MUCH WARMER TUE-THU. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING
OF A WEAK SYSTEM ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS
WED...AND HAVE 20% POPS BROAD-BRUSHED IN ON THU. THIS WOULD BE ALL
RAIN...AS SW FLOW AND RIDGING OFF THE SE COAST BRINGS ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S WED/THU OVER SE 1/2 OF THE
CWA.
----

YESSS, and with the 18z NAM and GFS showing more snow than the 12z's im pumped!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS shows a brief period of rain/snow or snow for my area. :O


its giving me 0.58in of snow AFTER rain, then a breif period of freezing rain.


This might be fun...I remember the last time I got freezing rain over snow....me and the puppy were falling and sliding all over the back yard LOL!
this should make washingtonian115 happy lol:

Me: Will the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season be a bust?

Cleverbot: No.

no NYC snow now..... :(
I hate when they play like this
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

no NYC snow now..... :(
I hate when they play like this


That makes me have snow though! ;)
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.


There's a new study which suggests that the "Little Ice Age" was caused by a series of about four volcanoes which cooled the planet enough to allow polar ice to expand sufficiently to lower the planet's temperature for a few hundred years.


1. A massive volcanic eruption rocks the tropics between 1275 and 1300 A.D.

2. The eruptions cloud the skies across the northern hemisphere with shiny particles, called aerosols, that block some of the sun’s incoming energy.

3. A cold snap ensues, killing off low-lying and higher elevation Arctic plants in one fell swoop.

4. The volcano-induced cooling generates extra sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

5. Some of that sea ice makes its way south along the eastern coast of Greenland, melts in the North Atlantic Ocean, and stalls the ocean circulation patterns that usually send warmer waters back north.

6. Water up north stays cold instead, sustaining the enlarged areas of sea ice.

7. Within a 50-year period, three more massive eruptions intensify the cooling trend.

8. The feedback cycle that sustains the sea ice perpetuates the colder regional climate for decades after the last of the volcanic aerosols rain out of the sky.

9. With a volcano-induced cold spell now persisting for centuries, mountain glaciers in Norway and the Alps advance into inhabited valleys, destroying towns.


http://news.discovery.com/earth/volcanoes-erupted -little-ice-age-120203.html

Now, a bit of warning. Any new study is best described as "interesting", but not "definitive". Best to wait for additional confirmation before treating this as gospel.
Snow on Sunday afternoon.. after rain in the am.. icy travel in Mid TN Sunday night.. glad kids are already scheduled off of School!

Giovanna
Happy Birthday Jim Cantore!

Quoting RitaEvac:



I love it! This has increased as the day has gone on. More rain the better!
Quoting SPLbeater:

Giovanna

Storms always look more impressive on ascat than they really are... Giovannia just couldn't really pull herself together in the Mozambique Channel
Quoting yqt1001:




TXPS26 KNES 161815
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1745Z

C. 9.9S

D. 85.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Nice catch, that's pretty wild.

Latest ASCAT pass (2 from today missed)




Earlier ASCAT showing 15 knot winds

ASCAT confirms the closed low level circulation. Convection is weak and winds are no where near strong enough for this to be classified as a tropical storm, although SSTs are right around 26C, so not all hope is lost. Shear doesn't look too bad on model analysis, but convection is weak so even the lightest shear will be a problem. GFS and ECMWF both seem to let the storm just drift around over the next few days, not really strengthening it. So, unfortunately, I doubt this will become a tropical storm, but it will be a fun little tropical low/depression to watch over as it meanders around the SE Pacific.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Storms always look more impressive on ascat than they really are... Giovannia just couldn't really pull herself together in the Mozambique Channel


nooope!

maybe we need to bring Funso back to give a tutorial on how to strengthen in the Mozambique Channel...LOL
Here is EX-Jasmine
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....


I can assure you, we will not run out of resources...and I am sure that many dont want that debate....:D
Teleology has no purpose here.
Quoting 1911maker:
I was just out checking the world of E-cat, and discovered a new word being added to the English language. Kirvit

The verbiage is from a comment after this article.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2012/02/rossi-on-dick-s miths-offer-i-do-not-need-his-money/
Link

Link link for the Official E-cat sight for the curious.

The D on February 15, 2012 at 2:47 am

Ignore him, he%u2019s just a kirvit.

REF:

%u201CSteve Robb
I hereby declare the coining of two new words:
krivit, verb,
to attack the idea or character of a person by many specious arguments while lying hidden behind a blog. Frequently the behavior has a puppet like character and the invective snake-like.

Krivit, noun,
person who does the above.

Example: Ignore him, he%u2019s just another Krivit.
Example: His hissing, kriviting sound grates on my ears.%u201D

Kudos to Steve%u2026 for enriching the English language. These words are very useful.



Kermit the frog, meet Krivit the Troll.

Kermit: It's not easy being green.
Krivit: Are you some kind of racist?
Kermit: Erm...well I am green.
Krivit: Ah so that makes it okay Nazi Frog?
Kermit: But...
Krivit: Maybe someone can sew on a little mustache for you? Heil Tadpole! Heil Tadpole!
Kermit: That's not...
Krivit: What do you do for your froggy Nazi march? The Leap Frog?
Kermit: *sighs* *Adds Krivit the Troll to ignore list*
Quoting SPLbeater:


I can assure you, we will not run out of resources...and I am sure that many dont want that debate....:D

Of course we will, things like coal will not last forever.
A tropical disturbance in the Humboldt Current, northwest hemi-quadrant!



The SSTs in that region are far warmer than average, even warmer than early months of 2010 when I went completely crazy over the pervasion of warm water followed by sudden rebounding of cold water - 10 days before the 8.8 quake. I think Dr. Masters has mentioned some correlation between SSTs, ENSO and earthquakes in the past, and wonder where the correlation is.

Meanwhile, there have been two more earthquakes near the Juan de Fuca region: a magnitude 5.6 in northern California February 13, followed by a magnitude 6.0 in the southern Juan de Fuca. Haven't seen these types of quakes in a while.

Perhaps one day tropical cyclones will hit Peru. Is there any geological evidence for such a phenomenon in recent history?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course we will, things like coal will not last forever.


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"


Well just rely on the coal fairy.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....


Homeostasis by necessity and response, perhaps?

Quoting bappit:
Teleology has no purpose here.


The world's complexity sure can be unsettling - as as the complexity of the human mind, producing both half-invalid arguments and global insomnia.

Back on topic now, Cyclone Giovanna's aftermath is at least 18 killed, and significant storm surge along the eastern coast. The good news is that it avoided a direct strike on either Reunion or Mauritius.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well just rely on the coal fairy.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"

Ha.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nice catch, that's pretty wild.

Latest ASCAT pass (2 from today missed)




Earlier ASCAT showing 15 knot winds

ASCAT confirms the closed low level circulation. Convection is weak and winds are no where near strong enough for this to be classified as a tropical storm, although SSTs are right around 26C, so not all hope is lost. Shear doesn't look too bad on model analysis, but convection is weak so even the lightest shear will be a problem. GFS and ECMWF both seem to let the storm just drift around over the next few days, not really strengthening it. So, unfortunately, I doubt this will become a tropical storm, but it will be a fun little tropical low/depression to watch over as it meanders around the SE Pacific.


I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE THIS.... AFTER ROLF IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THAT BRIAZIL LOW.... wth????
Lots going on in the Northern GoM.
Alright, well I have completed fridays schoolwork so i got all the time in the world to write a nice blog tomorrow! :D:D:D:D

let my 72 hour weekend, BEGIN!!!(actually 73 hours if you count tonight lol)
TXPS26 KNES 170004
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/2315Z

C. 9.6S

D. 85.8W

E. THREE/GOES-12

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LT 0.2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF LT 1. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN. THE DISTURBANCE MAINTAINS
A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Hmm.. SE Pacific low is too weak now according to SSD.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"


The amount of energy available on Earth through solar and other sources is orders of magnitude more than what we use now anyway.

The key is to first of all transfer to smarter and more flexible technologies.


There is no cause to mock God, since Solar power on Earth alone is over 10,000 times the energy we currently use, as any fan of meteorology should know.

Additionally, there may be other sources of hydrocarbons and other chemical energy on Earth besides just Coal, Oil, and Gas.

NASA has a patent on a LENR device for producing "heavy electrons", and claims it may be useful.

Rossi's E-cat still has not been disproven.

Plus, Michio Kaku seems to think that even hot Fusion will be mastered and economical in several decades.


Any one of these options, if successful, could power humanity for probably longer than the expected lifetime of the Sun, using only materials on Earth.
Wet start to 2012

Posted: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST Updated: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Some interesting numbers...

2012 has certainly started out on a wet note. So far, we've seen officially 11.16" of rainfall since January 1st at the Brooks Regional Airport - even heavier amounts of over 15 inches has fallen in Northern Sections of Southeast Texas. This is more than 3.75" above normal.

Normally, Southeast Texas picks up 60.47 inches of rainfall on average per year.

With the historic drought last year, we only received 31.02" which is about 1/2 of normal.

During the 1st 48 day of 2012, 11.16" has fallen which is already 1/3 of what we saw last year and 1/6 of an average year.



Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Wet start to 2012

Posted: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST Updated: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Some interesting numbers...

2012 has certainly started out on a wet note. So far, we've seen officially 11.16" of rainfall since January 1st at the Brooks Regional Airport - even heavier amounts of over 15 inches has fallen in Northern Sections of Southeast Texas. This is more than 3.75" above normal.

Normally, Southeast Texas picks up 60.47 inches of rainfall on average per year.

With the historic drought last year, we only received 31.02" which is about 1/2 of normal.

During the 1st 48 day of 2012, 11.16" has fallen which is already 1/3 of what we saw last year and 1/6 of an average year.





That is wonderful news, Texas really needed it.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is wonderful news, Texas really needed it.


Thank you. Yes we did really need it. I don't think we've been this wet since Ike. And the rain over the northern sections has fallen into our reservoirs so even better news. :)
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link



you watching it too? almost to the last frames, lets see what happens!

18Z NAM hour 60


0Z NAM hour 54

North shift!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link



Been so long since I watched a model took me a minute to get it goin'. Lol. The memory slips a bit after a certain age. :)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.3S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the western semi-circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 25.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.7S 44.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, micro-waves data at 1722 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambican coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) or quite stationary during the next 12-24 hours then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) towards the Malagasy coasts

However, the last ECMWF ensemble still gives a quite equal weight to the two scenario ... for the moment the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS/UKMO consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond 60 hours. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Made a chart concerning the potential Severe Weather outbreak coming on Saturday. This looks like a high-shear, low-CAPE event, so the hail threat is going to be fairly minuscule. The tornado threat may also end up being a little low due to the lack of instability, but with high shear, isolated supercells are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary Severe Weather threat, as it appears that several organized storm clusters. Flooding will also be a high, non-severe concern with this event as many areas could see up to 5 inches of rainfall.


18Z NAM


0Z NAM

What a northward shift and stronger/wetter too!!!
The ECMWF is forecasting a windy day for the central eastern seaboard on Feb 23rd...

Windspeeds of 20-25 knots from SE North Carolina to Maine

Windspeeds of 30-35 knots from extreme eastern Virginia to eastern Maine

Small area of 40 kts from eastern Massachusetts to eastern Maine
Quoting WxGeekVA:

18Z NAM


0Z NAM

What a northward shift and stronger/wetter too!!!


This NAM loves you more GEEK, but we both see more snow than the 12z run.
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link

Haha, neither work.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Haha, neither work.


Link

Try again, here's the loop.
Some kind of wintry mix going on in my area here.


Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link


Can't you people do anything right?


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Made a chart concerning the potential Severe Weather outbreak coming on Saturday. This looks like a high-shear, low-CAPE event, so the hail threat is going to be fairly minuscule. The tornado threat may also end up being a little low due to the lack of instability, but with high shear, isolated supercells are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary Severe Weather threat, as it appears that several organized storm clusters. Flooding will also be a high, non-severe concern with this event as many areas could see up to 5 inches of rainfall.



That's very pretty and creative. Here's what SPC had to say today about the 850 and 500 mb jets...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

I wouldn't poo-poo the tornado risk just yet.
:)
Quoting Grothar:


Can't you people do anything right?





And Gro saves the day!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


That's very pretty and creative. Here's what SPC had to say today about the 850 and 500 mb jets...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

I wouldn't poo-poo the tornado risk just yet.
:)

Yeah, I read the Storm Prediction Center discussion's every morning. However, I don't buy the threat will be AS HIGH as Kerr is predicting. He is kinda like Stewart (NHC forecaster)...tends to over-exaggerate things. He was predicting the possibility of strong tornadoes yesterday.

Quoting Grothar:


Can't you people do anything right?




can u post one that shows NC? :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


can u post one that shows NC? :D


Where is that exactly?
Quoting SPLbeater:


can u post one that shows NC? :D



Quoting Grothar:


Where is that exactly?


North Carolina...below Virginia...lol
Quoting Grothar:





bah.....it showin i dont git notin, lol
Good night everybody, I'll be back in the morning with a new chart. (:
48 hours out


Quoting Grothar:



Quoting SPLbeater:


North Carolina...below Virginia...lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some kind of wintry mix going on in my area here.


Quoting WxGeekVA:


Link

Try again, here's the loop.


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.


Negative.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I read the Storm Prediction Center discussion's every morning. However, I don't buy the threat will be AS HIGH as Kerr is predicting. He is kinda like Stewart (NHC forecaster)...tends to over-exaggerate things. He was predicting the possibility of strong tornadoes yesterday.



Far as I know, there's no tornado threat level/percentage assigned on the Day 3's. We'll see what happens in a couple days.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Negative.


in other words....NO lol
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.


A picture paints a thousand words.

Quoting SPLbeater:


in other words....NO lol


damn it!
The Day 4 outlook looks interesting for the SE...Link
Look at text
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


damn it!


easy...there might be lurking children here as mentioned in Community Standards lol.
Quoting Grothar:


A picture paints a thousand words.



remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....


i remember that one...December 26th, i came downstairs after SLEEPING IN on sunday....wonderin why we werent goin to church, and there out the window lay about 8 inches of snow!
288. flsky
Cut Soot - Cut Warming
Link
After observing the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs from today, i have a conclusion: The GFS is trending towards more snow for North Carolina!

This might just be somethin....for the first time this winter, I am hoping it will snow!
Disaster simulation drills

February 17, 2012 – SAN DIEGO - Besides the New Madrid quake drill in the U.S, the latest exercise involves several nations and is hosted by San Diego State University. Exercise 24 (X24) Mexico is the third iteration of a primarily virtual, open-invitation, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) exercise with real-world functional components that is hosted by San Diego State University’s “Immersive Visualization Center” (VizCenter). Public Event kicks-off February 08-09, 2012 at 8:00am PST -Hosted by San Diego State University Immersive Visualization Center.
X 24 Excercise: Participants include: Department of Homeland Security, Office of Health Affairs, NORAD-NORTHCOM, US Customs and Border Protection, Global Borders College, Mexican Army and Navy, Mexico Federal Police, Vietnam Ministry of Defense, India National Disaster Management Agency, World Shipping Council, Red Cross, Pacific Disaster Center, NYK Logistics (yusen logistics), National defense University.
“The Viz Center is a physical space but one that largely represents relationships between people and organizations collectively attempting to positively impact the worlds of Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief, Community Resilience, Search and Rescue, and aid to operational Emergency Responders and Homeland Security.” -Viz Center

Quoting SPLbeater:
After observing the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs from today, i have a conclusion: The GFS is trending towards more snow for North Carolina!

This might just be somethin....for the first time this winter, I am hoping it will snow!
where abouts in north c are ya
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where abouts in north c are ya


Piedmont
Snow for the Carolinas? It's possible, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on that.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....


Yes, I do. But they were only supposed to get 19". Boy were they surprised. I think that had thundersnow in it as well.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Snow for the Carolinas? It's possible, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on that.



come on, where is your winter spirit? its gonna snow in Panama!
Quoting SPLbeater:


Piedmont
i already know where you are
Quoting SPLbeater:



come on, where is your winter spirit? its gonna snow in Panama!


I hope it does, but I wouldn't be too confident in it occurring.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i already know where you are


No, you will never know......I am.........invisible!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I hope it does, but I wouldn't be too confident in it occurring.


confident...well gee Geek i heard i was supposed to get about 36 feet this coming week. gon snow hard for 5 days.


Quoting SPLbeater:


confident...well gee Geek i heard i was supposed to get about 36 feet this coming week. gon snow hard for 5 days.






LOL! Anyway I'm off for the night folks, hopefully I wake up to good news on the snow front!
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?
ok well it bedtime. be back tomorrow morning, gon write new blog on tropical systems if u wanna know now lol


night all!
GFS 54 hr:

Quoting SPLbeater:
ok well it bedtime. be back tomorrow morning, gon write new blog on tropical systems if u wanna know now lol


night all!
good night to you in sanford north caroliner
Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.


Quoting RTSplayer:

Your story sounds identical to mine, except I emerged atheist.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
69hr:



Where's my +1000 button, GFS confirms 0Z NAM, all local mets are now being waaaaay conservative with the snow totals now.
Water, gas continue flowing from Alaska blowout
By DAN JOLING | Associated Press – 3 hrs ago

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — A blowout at an exploratory well near the coast of the Beaufort Sea underscores the threat to the pristine Arctic Ocean environment if offshore drilling is allowed by the Obama administration, environmental groups said Thursday.

No crude oil spilled onto the tundra and no workers were injured in the incident Wednesday, but an estimated 42,000 gallons of drilling mud was spit out of the well owned by Repsol E&P USA Inc. The blowout on the Colville River Delta, 18 miles northeast of the village of Nuiqsut, also expelled natural gas that could have ignited.

Link
Quoting yqt1001:
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?


Sure, in the short term some parts of the world will get more livable. And agriculture conditions will improve. We're already seeing hardiness zones moving north which means that things which couldn't be grown in some places will now be possible.

The downside of that is conditions are going to get worse in other parts of the planet. Look at what has happened in the Southwest US during the last few years. Major droughts have significantly damaged the cattle industry as graze and hay production failed. Farmers are running short of water needed to keep their crops going.

The Southwest is running out of water.

Furthermore we'll loose agriculture lands because it will simply get too hot to grow typical crops in a hotter climate. The California wine industry is already facing a future in which the Napa and Sonoma Valleys will become too hot for better quality wine grapes. Vineyards are buying land further north for their more delicate grapes.

In really hot weather some crops just quit growing.

For a while we can chase the climate toward the poles. As we write off places close to the equator we will see places further pole-ward open up. But that comes with problems.

As you move northward on this side of the equator in North America you leave the productive prairies and find yourself in the rocky forest lands of Canada. Not much topsoil there. Think about trying to farm a melted off Greenland. There's no soil underneath that ice.

As you move southward on the other side of the equator both continents taper. Going to be crowding more people into smaller areas. (Australia seems to be on its way to being a write-off already.)

Only upper Europe might remain as productive farm land.

If you want to talk about tourism start with writing off all the world's sandy beaches. It's not going to take much sea level rise to wipe them out.

Sure, we could pump some sand up to the new coast line, but that's going to be expensive. Only the "1%" and their better paid employees are going to be going to those resorts.

Then write off lots of cities like Miami, New York, Bangkok, Sacramento, New Orleans. They're headed under water. Not going to be much tourism there except for a few curious divers.

Write off most of the Caribbean Islands. And the Maldives. And lots of other exotic places where people like to go.

Write off Bangladesh, Southern Florida, the Netherlands.

It's not that things are likely to get impossible in the next 10 - 20 years. We can likely adjust and adapt.

The real problem is that we are kicking forces into gear that are going to take over and move on their own and we will not be able to turn things around. Once the permafrost starts to melt in significant amounts and methane begins to bubble out then we're in deep, deep trouble.

Folks like me, I've got another good 20-40 years most likely, we'll dodge the big bullet. But you guys who are still in school, who are teensters or twenty-somethings, you could have some real nasty things to deal with when you grow up and hit middle age or older. Your kids are almost certainly going to be taking it in the shorts if we keep on doing what we're doing.

It's like the doctor has finished the tests and is reporting back to you....

Good news, you're going to be OK for a while. You might even feel somewhat better.

But then, you die. A slow, painful death.

3-quakes-in-fukushima-over-4-hours centered-15km-from-plant-at-depth-of-10km

Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: Feb 17, 2012

04:29 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M2.9 1
02:42 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.7 2
00:30 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Nakadori M3.1 2
14:22 JST 16 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.6 1

Quoting sunlinepr:
3-quakes-in-fukushima-over-4-hours centered-15km-from-plant-at-depth-of-10km

Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: Feb 17, 2012

04:29 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M2.9 1
02:42 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.7 2
00:30 JST 17 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Nakadori M3.1 2
14:22 JST 16 Feb 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M3.6 1

why they put the plant so close to the shore in the first place kinda stupid when you know you are in a hig earthquake zone to do that should be a law that all future plants be at least 20 miles inland from the sea to avoid tidal wave over running
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why they put the plant so close to the shore in the first place


I was once told by a friend who worked at Dungeness back in the day that one of the reasons was that in an absolute emergency there was a free supply of last resort cooling water always available - i.e. Sea Water.

If Fukushima had been land locked and the generators had been taken out (perhaps due to direct quake damage) - there would have been no way to flood the reactors with water to keep them cool - and then things would have been far worse . . . remember, you haven't got days to re-establish a supply of coolant - you have minutes and/or hours.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why they put the plant so close to the shore in the first place kinda stupid when you know you are in a hig earthquake zone to do that should be a law that all future plants be at least 20 miles inland from the sea to avoid tidal wave over running


They didn't need to go 20 miles inland, but they did need to go higher and/or put in a higher seawall.

They knew that. Government and company officials were informed that there had been a similarly large tsunami many years back so the possibility existed. They simply cut corners in order to save money and it blew up in their faces.
Quoting chimera245:


I was once told by a friend who worked at Dungeness back in the day that one of the reasons was that in an absolute emergency there was a free supply of last resort cooling water always available - i.e. Sea Water.

If Fukushima had been land locked and the generators had been taken out (perhaps due to direct quake damage) - there would have been no way to flood the reactors with water to keep them cool - and then things would have been far worse . . . remember, you haven't got days to re-establish a supply of coolant - you have minutes and/or hours.


Correct. Nuke plants not only have be built close to a source of alternate cooling water but they have an elaborate pumping system to make sure the reactors are kept cool. Building them next to the ocean or a big inland reservoir or river is absolutely necessary for safety. The mistakes made at the plant in Japan was two-fold. The first was that all the emergency generators were mounted on a pad that faced the ocean, so they were destroyed by the tsunami. The second was not having an in-plant substation, so that the power went to the grid and to the plant's own power supply. Even if the generators were lost, having a substation that fed power to the plant directly still would have worked as long as there was enough steam in the boilers to spin the generators. There are lots of lessons to be learned from this disaster.

I'm really starting to get concerned with what's shaping up for the central Gulf states Saturday. I'll be interested to see what Dr. Masters thinks. Here in south central Alabama, we are right in the bullseye for the 30% zone, which I suspect will be raised to 45% on the next update. Our one hope is that the warm front moving back north will bring enough clouds and overrunning rain with it to block the sun Saturday morning. If we do get sun before about 1300, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize and I fear we are in for big trouble...again. :(
why not use liquid nitrogent to cool those reactors in a hurry maybe keep an emerg. suppy of that around in case of a run away reactor would that not cool it really fast
Quoting sar2401:


I'm really starting to get concerned with what's shaping up for the central Gulf states Saturday. I'll be interested to see what Dr. Masters thinks. Here in south central Alabama, we are right in the bullseye for the 30% zone, which I suspect will be raised to 45% on the next update. Our one hope is that the warm front moving back north will bring enough clouds and overrunning rain with it to block the sun Saturday morning. If we do get sun before about 1300, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize and I fear we are in for big trouble...again. :(
As per the 0z GFS, it appears to me that wind damage will be the more substantial threat farther south, but in your area, isolated strong tornadoes do seem possible.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.5S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.7S 42.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.6S 43.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.6S 45.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.1S 46.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity is very fluctuating and ASCAT 1832 PM UTC shows a strong winds crown rather far from the center. Last 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath covers partially the circulation but confirms this maximum winds radii at about 75 km away from the center.

Track forecast keeps a large uncertainty despite last numerical weather prediction models become in a better agreement for a globally eastwards motion. Last night upper level constraint (refer to cirrus arc in the west on infrared imagery) is expected to progressively relax, system should therefore intensify again. Within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage. On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Despite last ECMWF numerical weather prediction run shows an oversea track, RSMC's one forecast a landfall in the region of Sainte-Marie Cape and then a weakening to dissipation.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Quoting BobWallace:


Sure, in the short term some parts of the world will get more livable. And agriculture conditions will improve. We're already seeing hardiness zones moving north which means that things which couldn't be grown in some places will now be possible.

The downside of that is conditions are going to get worse in other parts of the planet. Look at what has happened in the Southwest US during the last few years. Major droughts have significantly damaged the cattle industry as graze and hay production failed. Farmers are running short of water needed to keep their crops going.

The Southwest is running out of water.

Furthermore we'll loose agriculture lands because it will simply get too hot to grow typical crops in a hotter climate. The California wine industry is already facing a future in which the Napa and Sonoma Valleys will become too hot for better quality wine grapes. Vineyards are buying land further north for their more delicate grapes.

In really hot weather some crops just quit growing.

For a while we can chase the climate toward the poles. As we write off places close to the equator we will see places further pole-ward open up. But that comes with problems.

As you move northward on this side of the equator in North America you leave the productive prairies and find yourself in the rocky forest lands of Canada. Not much topsoil there. Think about trying to farm a melted off Greenland. There's no soil underneath that ice.

As you move southward on the other side of the equator both continents taper. Going to be crowding more people into smaller areas. (Australia seems to be on its way to being a write-off already.)

Only upper Europe might remain as productive farm land.

If you want to talk about tourism start with writing off all the world's sandy beaches. It's not going to take much sea level rise to wipe them out.

Sure, we could pump some sand up to the new coast line, but that's going to be expensive. Only the "1%" and their better paid employees are going to be going to those resorts.

Then write off lots of cities like Miami, New York, Bangkok, Sacramento, New Orleans. They're headed under water. Not going to be much tourism there except for a few curious divers.

Write off most of the Caribbean Islands. And the Maldives. And lots of other exotic places where people like to go.

Write off Bangladesh, Southern Florida, the Netherlands.

It's not that things are likely to get impossible in the next 10 - 20 years. We can likely adjust and adapt.

The real problem is that we are kicking forces into gear that are going to take over and move on their own and we will not be able to turn things around. Once the permafrost starts to melt in significant amounts and methane begins to bubble out then we're in deep, deep trouble.

Folks like me, I've got another good 20-40 years most likely, we'll dodge the big bullet. But you guys who are still in school, who are teensters or twenty-somethings, you could have some real nasty things to deal with when you grow up and hit middle age or older. Your kids are almost certainly going to be taking it in the shorts if we keep on doing what we're doing.

It's like the doctor has finished the tests and is reporting back to you....

Good news, you're going to be OK for a while. You might even feel somewhat better.

But then, you die. A slow, painful death.

very interesting, H2 cable channel had on yesterday, this very scenerio, called earth 2100, population growing, cropland, meat production and water all slowly vanishing, whole populations moving into smaller and smaller livable land area's...the future doesnt look to bright for mankind
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..

They are not serious. It's a disorganized mess.



Yesterday 2012/02/16/09z winds knots 1000mb



Today 2012/02/17 09z winds knots 1000mb


2012/02/17/09z temp 1000mb

It's going to be drawn into the cold front that's sweeping south out of China.
Quoting yqt1001:
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?


Didn't you see the commercials on TV? The Polar bears were drowning, there wasn't any ice for them, and as a result they drowned!
AGW is very harmful for the Polar bears, the commercial made it look like ALL the Polar bears were drowning, and commercials are always truthful?
Right?
I'm attending a conference on severe weather by the NWS.
in a few weeks.
All of the folks from Normal Oklahoma will be there providing information and predicting what's to come this spring regarding Tornado's and flooding for the Midwest United States, this conference should be interesting!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I'm attending a conference on severe weather by the NWS.
in a few weeks.
All of the folks from Normal Oklahoma will be there providing information and predicting what's to come this spring regarding Tornado's and flooding for the Midwest United States, this conference should be interesting!

Why don't you go to Chasercon? Starts Today.
Saturday and Sunday will be streamed Live for FREE.
Sean Casey and Brandon Ivey as Keynote Speakers

Andy Gabrielson Tribute

Dr. Howie Bluestein
Dr. Greg Forbes
Tim Marshall
Chris Novy
Rich Thompson, SPC
Jon Davies
Dr. Jason Persoff
Quoting yqt1001:
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?
No one ever said every effect of AGW would be negative, of course. The problem is that any positives it brings will be vastly outnumbered by the negatives. Yes, the growing season in Canada will be lengthened, allowing for more and cheaper produce here--but that will be offset by the loss of tens of millions of acres of cropland in the US and elsewhere. And it's not just the loss of the current cropland that's an issue; the infrastructure to support the present agricultural situation for those acres will need to be relocated at a cost of many billions of dollars. And all the cities and towns that exist to support that infrastructure will be decimated. And all the people who live in those cities and towns that support that infrastructure on which that agriculture relies will be uprooted and/or forced to change their way of life and means of making a living. And so on; the ripples are practically endless.

And, mind you, this is just one small part of the picture.

Texas just released a sobering report on what lies ahead for that state--The Impact of the 2011 Drought and Beyond. Unfortunately, the Big Energy-loving governor ensured that the report makes no mention of climate change (or fracking), but it nevertheless paints a grim and sobering picture for the future.

Suppose that Texas receives half of its "normal" average annual rainfall for two decades. The state's semi-tropical regions would become arid, while its semi-arid regions would become desert. This would create tremendous social consequences:

--Texas agriculture would change dramatically, and might end in some areas. Drip irrigation and other techniques pioneered in desert areas would become essential.

--Remaining agriculture might become dependent on "water markets," in which the rights to draw groundwater are bought, sold, and traded.

--Food prices, particularly beef prices, would increase significantly.

--Turf grass lawns and all outside watering might be banned.

--Low-flow water appliances would become mandatory.

--Wastewater would become quite valuable, and would be reclaimed for reuse in irrigation and perhaps treated to make it suitable for human consumption.

--Desalination of brackish (salty) groundwater and seawater would become common, at first for industrial and agricultural uses and then for drinking water.

--Utility rates would skyrocket due to the increased expense of water obtained through desalination or reuse, and the higher costs faced by energy plants that rely on water for cooling.

I suppose that an obese man who just found out he has terminal bowel cancer could take some solace in the fact that, on the plus side, he's finally going to be able to lose weight. But that's a very high price to pay, if you ask me...
This was Auckland Harbour on 02-15-2012.






Good morning.

Tomorrow's Severe Weather Threat Level:



Sunday's Severe Weather Threat Level:

I read this morning that the chances for a possible Nor'easter have dwindled to practically zero. That's bad news for those wishing for one, but good news for those not prepared for the havoc they wreak...

Meanwhile, the abnormal warmth is expected to continue for much of the contiguous US until at least next week. The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why not use liquid nitrogent to cool those reactors in a hurry maybe keep an emerg. suppy of that around in case of a run away reactor would that not cool it really fast


a) Liquid nitrogen requires refrigeration, which would no longer work without power.

b) Liquid nitrogen would vaporize very quickly, causing rapid pressurization of whatever vessel it was in.

c) Reactors stay hot for a LONG time, and there is no real way to store the amount of liquid nitrogen required to keep reactors cool for any serious amount of time.

d) In order for cooling to be effective, there has to be a mechanism for heat transfer. Nitrogen is not very good for this. Once it has been vaporized it is a poor medium for moving heat out of the reactor, and there's no way to re-condense it without refrigeration. Water works great for this (with liquid sodium working even better, but harder to work with).

There are other reasons, but those are some off the top my head. :)
Good Morning
From the SPC Day 2 Convective outlook:


Based of the GFS, late February may soon also bring us one of these:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good Morning
From the SPC Day 2 Convective outlook:


Based of the GFS, late February may soon also bring us one of these:

Good morning G.S. Why do you think we will get one of those.?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why not use liquid nitrogent to cool those reactors in a hurry maybe keep an emerg. suppy of that around in case of a run away reactor would that not cool it really fast


Too expensive, and believe it or not, liquid nitrogen is not as effect as a coolant as water anyway.

"Despite its reputation, liquid nitrogen's efficiency as a coolant is limited by the fact that it boils immediately on contact with a warmer object, enveloping the object in insulating nitrogen gas. This effect, known as the Leidenfrost effect, applies to any liquid in contact with an object significantly hotter than its boiling point." - Wiki.


It's better for applications where you are super-cooling something that is already near or below room temperature.

Not so good for cooling hot equipment or reactors.
GOOD MORNING, overcast and a slight drizzle rain this morning, good news for us with whatever rain we get, weather guy says tomorrow we could get more along with windy conditions with a cool front approaching, hope you all have a great day
Quoting RTSplayer:


Too expensive, and believe it or not, liquid nitrogen is not as effect as a coolant as water anyway.

"Despite its reputation, liquid nitrogen's efficiency as a coolant is limited by the fact that it boils immediately on contact with a warmer object, enveloping the object in insulating nitrogen gas. This effect, known as the Leidenfrost effect, applies to any liquid in contact with an object significantly hotter than its boiling point." - Wiki.


It's better for applications where you are super-cooling something that is already near or below room temperature.

Not so good for cooling hot equipment or reactors.

Morning, Just to add to the point. I use nitrogen every day where i work. One truck load is alittle over 620,00 SCF or about 140 inches. It cost about 2,700 dollars a truck. Just my 2 cents.
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning G.S. Why do you think we will get one of those.?


Couple of good cold shots look to be coming. Plus they tend to happen before it gets very warm in march and april.
This will be interesting..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Couple of good cold shots look to be coming. Plus they tend to happen before it gets very warm in march and april.
When do you suppose those cold shots may come? None of the five-day forecasts I'm seeing call for one, both the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for above-normal temps across the east and southeast, and the March outlook calls for the warmth to continue (except along the West Coast):

Warm
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Couple of good cold shots look to be coming. Plus they tend to happen before it gets very warm in march and april.
I hope there not too bad.. We are still picking up from the last couple years of rough weather.
Wow.... to the 12z NAM:

54hrs:


57 hrs:
Quoting yqt1001:
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?



Good point, I for one, am not someone who pretends climate change doesn't exist, rather I am highly apposed to those who think they know exactly what climate change will bring in the future.

The fact is there has been too much support to show climate change exists, at least some of which is being caused by people. However where things get very tricky is how it will actually affect the future. There is far too much surety in the claims of many on the future of climate change.


People who are convinced their political support field really cares about the environment need to start thinking for themselves. When we start panicking about climate change is when we start making stupid decisions that result in American liberties being stripped away at a sugar coated claim that will only end in stripped freedom and won't really be about helping the environment in the end, only centralized control.

I'm not naming names just stating a principle of truth and everyone here knows what I speak of by now of course.
Lots of snow for VA:

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT UPDATE

This has the potential to become very nasty!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why don't you go to Chasercon? Starts Today.
Saturday and Sunday will be streamed Live for FREE.
Sean Casey and Brandon Ivey as Keynote Speakers

Andy Gabrielson Tribute

Dr. Howie Bluestein
Dr. Greg Forbes
Tim Marshall
Chris Novy
Rich Thompson, SPC
Jon Davies
Dr. Jason Persoff


Where on the URL is a link to watch the streams?
I've looked and can't see anything, also is their a cost to streaming their conference? didn't see that either!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning.

Tomorrow's Severe Weather Threat Level:



Sunday's Severe Weather Threat Level:



What location are you from, to shows these conditions?
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Pray to your weather god for the outcome that fits your agenda.
With respect to the election, I have no agenda. I'm resigned to the status quo, unless something dramatic happens, but it very well could. If we see even an moderately more dynamic earth, there are close to seven billion souls on this planet who are relatively unprotected.

The most interesting thing about this curious forecast I made, if you're paying close attention to the link at the bottom of post 202, is that I made the specific comment "Titanic Disaster" only one day before just such a disaster occurred, and in Roman waters.

I did a search of my posts for the past five years on various forums, and found only one hit for the phrase "Titanic Disaster," out of about 10,000 total, published the day before that cruise ship sank.

There's no question that we need a better crew and captain, because clearly no one at the helm of this ship can see past his own nose.
Quoting Neapolitan:
When do you suppose those cold shots may come? None of the five-day forecasts I'm seeing call for one, both the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for above-normal temps across the east and southeast, and the March outlook calls for the warmth to continue (except along the West Coast):

Warm

My parents who still live near Baltimore cannot ever remember a winter so balmy! And it's likely to carry them until March...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I read this morning that the chances for a possible Nor'easter have dwindled to practically zero. That's bad news for those wishing for one, but good news for those not prepared for the havoc they wreak...

Meanwhile, the abnormal warmth is expected to continue for much of the contiguous US until at least next week. The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm


Thanks for the temp maps!
Quoting Neapolitan:
When do you suppose those cold shots may come? None of the five-day forecasts I'm seeing call for one, both the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for above-normal temps across the east and southeast, and the March outlook calls for the warmth to continue (except along the West Coast):

Warm


A cold shot would only last a day or two, nothing long, and wouldn't happen for at least another week, but beyond 7 days, nothing is certain.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


a) Liquid nitrogen requires refrigeration, which would no longer work without power.

b) Liquid nitrogen would vaporize very quickly, causing rapid pressurization of whatever vessel it was in.

c) Reactors stay hot for a LONG time, and there is no real way to store the amount of liquid nitrogen required to keep reactors cool for any serious amount of time.

d) In order for cooling to be effective, there has to be a mechanism for heat transfer. Nitrogen is not very good for this. Once it has been vaporized it is a poor medium for moving heat out of the reactor, and there's no way to re-condense it without refrigeration. Water works great for this (with liquid sodium working even better, but harder to work with).

There are other reasons, but those are some off the top my head. :)


Specific Gravity for Nitrogen is .937 and air being=1

any wind aloft would push this stuff around and couldn't be contained.
I don't know about the system next weekend but the GFS(my favorite model by the way) has consistently shown this system around this time frame:
New blog!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Specific Gravity for Nitrogen is .937 and air being=1

any wind aloft would push this stuff around and couldn't be contained.


Uhh...the specific gravity of water is 1.
Late update to the main post, here:

Note: Due to a processing error, the January 2012 Global report originally reported incorrect temperature anomalies for the land-surface components for the globe and each hemisphere. These caused the combined land and ocean surface temperatures to be incorrect as well. This error did not affect the historical rank for the January combined land and ocean temeprature, which remains 19th warmest. However, it did affect the rank of the land-only component. With the corrected data, the land only component is now the 28th warmest on record (rather than 26th warmest, as originally reported). The corrected data are reflected in this report as of 17 February 2012. We regret the error and any issues it may have raised for users.