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January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think there is a lot to do with the lack of Pacific energy and moisture in the southern stream. Yesterdays models show an closed 500mb low that degenerated into a shortwave over the four corner region while still retaining a degree of vorticity and being coupled with ample moisture.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SFC PLOT SHOWS DW PTS SLOWING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 60
COASTAL SW AND MID 50S UPPER COASTAL ZONES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS
ARE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECT SEA FOG TO
REFORM THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN MORNING.
THEREFORE..WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS AFT FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS CHC OF STRONG
TSTMS TOMORROW AND THEN WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER POP NUMBERS FROM THE NAM FOR
SUNDAY AS I THINK THE CAP IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL SEE SCT SHWRS...BUT QUESTIONABLE CONCERNING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL REALIZE WITH LITTLE SUN AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...IT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE AFT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WILL
MENTION TSTMS AREAWIDE...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. A COUPLE
COULD BE STRONG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IF CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH.

THE LATEST GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY CONCERNING A CHC OF SNOW
ON TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS CONCERNING THIS EVENT. ADDED
A MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EXTREME NW ON TUE MORNING AS 1000/500
MB THICKNESSES WILL BE NEAR 540 BY MID MORNING AND THE GFS INDICATES
A BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TUE. WE MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAKE IT DOWN TO HWY 59 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATE ON TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR FIGURING ALL OF THIS OUT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PD...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 33
&&
Quoting StormJunkie:
BOO!

Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.
i was wondering when you would drop by
Even though the attention appears focussed on Texas in regards to a potential snow storm, some attention should be paid towards Florida come Monday into early Tuesday. All three main forecasting models (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) continue to suggest a potent storm system coming through South and Central Florida during this time period.

In analyzing all three models, the NAM remains the most aggressive developing a weak surface low and moving it right across South Florida with the potential for severe storms during the late afternoon to overnight hours on Monday. This is quite evident in the 18Z NAM Southeast Composite Reflectivity.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are pretty similar in their solutions in developing a weak low that comes across the Florida Straits, but both models aren't as aggressive in showing instability evolving over South Florida. In fact, the ECMWF indicates very weak instability, if any, over South Florida on Monday. Both models, in a general consensus, just forecast scattered storms across the area.

For now, the computer models will bare watching in the coming days leading to Monday to see exactly how this weak low evolves and, especially, where the low tracks. If the low tracks south as the GFS and ECMWF suggest, then there will only be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. But if the low tracks right over South Florida as the NAM suggests, South Florida could see some severe weather with the primary threats being heavy rainfall, straightline gusts, and an isolated tornado. Only time will tell.
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon,
Interesting to read the earlier comments about Atlantic SST, SAL, Sahel Rainfall, current TCHP, Nino/Nina, etc. I too, think that all things considered we will have a far more active season than last year.
Taking all the components into account, I am looking to the SAL to be the deciding factor this year.
Surely will be an interesting one.


I agree, since the SAL is one of the last limiting factors that we're still unsure about. Based on the pattern I expect it will be near normal or slightly above, which would be good for the Cape Verde season.
506. drj27
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain
Quoting drj27:
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain


That's what? About three weeks from now? Thats way too soon to tell right now.
Quoting StormJunkie:
BOO!

Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.


Did it take you this long to dig out of the snow up there in da Creek?
509. drj27
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That's what? About three weeks from now? Thats way too soon to tell right now.
yea true ill just have to keep looking at the weather untill then
Quoting drj27:
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain


Probably will rain one of those days but temps will be warm maybe 80's.
511. drj27
Quoting Jeff9641:


Probably will rain one of those days but temps will be warm maybe 80's.
yea someone told me it always rains around 2pm everyday there i said yea right
Quoting drj27:
yea true ill just have to keep looking at the weather untill then


You could always check my website when it comes that time at the CCHS Weather Center where I create forecasts for South, Central, and North Florida.
Quoting drj27:
yea someone told me it always rains around 2pm everyday there i said yea right


It does...a lot in the summer due to the seabreeze when there is enough instability. Florida sees the most number of days with thunderstorms than any other state in the U.S.

This doesn't happen much in the winter though.
Here's to show what Levi was talking about. The 500mb chart reveals the difference in the 12z model runs from yesterday and today. Today's model run on the 500mb chart shows a a 500mb height around 552dm over extreme northern Texas. Yesterdays model run has a 500mb height of 552dm extending down near the Texas/Mexico Border.

Yesterday:



Today:



Both these images are of Tuesday Afternoon at 18z.
Quoting drj27:
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain

That's still about three weeks out, so it'll be some time before an accurate forecast is drawn up for that time period, but if the Climate Prediction Center is anything to go by, it may be a bit cooler and wetter than usual.



516. drj27
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You could always check my website when it comes that time at the CCHS Weather Center where I create forecasts for South, Central, and North Florida.
will do thanks for the info
517. drj27
nooo lol i hope it doesnt we are taking the kids to disney world we live in destin we have been the last 3 years its time to find a new place to go on vacation out of the state of fl i asked my lil girl and son where they wanted to go and of course they had to say disney world
Hey Drak and Levi,

I know that you both seem focussed on possible winter weather in Texas, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the possible potent storm for South Florida come Monday. The NAM has been quite aggressive with this storm.
Quoting drj27:
yea someone told me it always rains around 2pm everyday there i said yea right


Yeah in the summertime this is true but this is El-Nino so yes March can be very wet in Florida.
Well the 18Z GFS run pushes almost all of the precip just south of the DFW area. I was so looking forward to shattering our snow record.

I am not disappointed, as I got to have a White Christmas in DFW, TX and see 14" of snow on the ground.

A friend of mine and I drove around Arlington, TX today. The 2/11-12 snowstorm has shattered MANY large tree limbs, I was shocked to see that!

However the 18Z NAM run for today puts DFW just North of the heaviest precip axis, 72 HRS 2/23 @12Noon CST:

I am so glad Global Warming continues to bring SNOW into Texas and not Florida! Thank you Global Warming.....LOL

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hey Drak and Levi,

I know that you both seem focussed on possible winter weather in Texas, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the possible potent storm for South Florida come Monday. The NAM has been quite aggressive with this storm.


Well it's hard to say. It depends on how sharp the shortwave is. As you said the NAM is the most aggressive. I'm leaning towards a weaker solution though as the shortwave will be rounding the axis of a flattening ridge, and it honestly already looks so weak on most of the models that you can barely see it. I'd expect a few showers and thunderstorms with a few inches of rain as the increased instability moves through, but nothing really severe.
LOOKS LIKE everything is still big in Texas.....HEHEHEHEHE

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hey Drak and Levi,

I know that you both seem focussed on possible winter weather in Texas, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the possible potent storm for South Florida come Monday. The NAM has been quite aggressive with this storm.


The GFS seems the only model that doesn't fathom this surface wave/low associated with the shortwave trough and is further south carrying the bulk of the precipitation through the Florida straits. The NAM, CMC, and UKMET have similar solutions dumping high QPF amounts. The NAM shows anywhere from 4-6inches of rain with strong mid level forcing. The CMC and UKMET do not appear to be too far off from that estimate. The NMM shows many embedded vortices within the shortwave trough and carry with it lots of moisture. I'm leaning towards the CMC and UKMET, which aren't as aggressive as the NAM but still reasonable.
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOKS LIKE everything is still big in Texas.....HEHEHEHEHE



Now...that just doesn't make sense on the part of the GFS. That run only has .25 inches of liquid for most of northern and central Texas. There's no way 10 inches is going to fall with the scenario I saw on the 12z. That snow axis will probably not end up that far south either.

*edit* my bad I read that wrong lol it's 6 inches not 10. Even 6 though is quite a stretch based on the scenario the 12z GFS portrays.
In 5-7 days models are unanimous in bringing even colder air(true arctic air) to the eastern and central conus!

When exactly, how strong and even how long is still up in the air(probably not as long as the outbreak early-mid January). The models more or less want to phase a polar vortex over the northern Ohio Valley by next weekend.

Or coarse it won't be as bad as the Jan. 9th-11th outbreak(hopefully since it's no longer mid-January). But for late February, there looks to be major departures from normal.

I'm not wishing for the cold. Just love seeing extreme weather!

Let's see how this pans out!
Quoting Levi32:


Now...that just doesn't make sense on the part of the GFS. That run only has .25 inches of liquid for most of northern and central Texas. There's no way 10 inches is going to fall with the scenario I saw on the 12z. That snow axis will probably not end up that far south either.

*edit* my bad I read that wrong lol it's 6 inches not 10. Even 6 though is quite a stretch based on the scenario the 12z GFS portrays.


Doesn't a 1/4" translate into a 4-6" snow total depending on it being a wet or dry snow? I always thought that was the ratio but, i could be wrong.
Quoting Levi32:


Well it's hard to say. It depends on how sharp the shortwave is. As you said the NAM is the most aggressive. I'm leaning towards a weaker solution though as the shortwave will be rounding the axis of a flattening ridge, and it honestly already looks so weak on most of the models that you can barely see it. I'd expect a few showers and thunderstorms with a few inches of rain as the increased instability moves through, but nothing really severe.


The CMC which Drak mentioned has a nice area of upward motion over Florida in 60 hours. With the storm over the Ohio valley developing a secondary low near the Carolinas I can see the area of decent rain amounts that the NAM is forecasting, though I think 6 inches is a little high.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Doesn't a 1/4" translate into a 4-6" snow total depending on it being a wet or dry snow? I always thought that was the ratio but, i could be wrong.


That's a 20:1 ratio and that won't happen in Texas with this storm. It's dang hard to get 20:1 in Texas at all. I'm not good with history but I can't think of a time when that happened. Ratios will be 10:1 at max along the axis of heaviest snow. That makes .25 inches of liquid 2-3 inches of snow, which is all that would fall if the 12z GFS pans out.
Quoting Levi32:


Now...that just doesn't make sense on the part of the GFS. That run only has .25 inches of liquid for most of northern and central Texas. There's no way 10 inches is going to fall with the scenario I saw on the 12z. That snow axis will probably not end up that far south either.

*edit* my bad I read that wrong lol it's 6 inches not 10. Even 6 though is quite a stretch based on the scenario the 12z GFS portrays.


I don't like using the graphics from that site. They are based mainly on snow ratios of 10:1.
Conditions around my house

Temp 69F

Humidity 15%

Dewpoint 19F

Winds Light and Variable
Levi, post 505.
Sorry, I had to run out...
But yeah, the SAL will probably affect the CV systems, but not affect anything beyond say 60 West. It will be fun to see how many waves make it through to 60W or so, and whether they can keep their potential, if the SAL is strong.

The more south the wave axis is, the better the chance I think.
Quoting Levi32:


That's a 20:1 ratio and that won't happen in Texas with this storm. It's dang hard to get 20:1 in Texas at all. I'm not good with history but I can't think of a time when that happened. Ratios will be 10:1 at max along the axis of heaviest snow. That makes .25 inches of liquid 2-3 inches of snow, which is all that would fall if the 12z GFS pans out.


The GFS 12z showed .5-.75in in the heavy snow axis between I-20 and I-10. That graphic based on a 10:1 ratio would give you estimates in the 5-8 inch range.
Quoting Drakoen:


The GFS 12z showed .5-.75in in the heavy snow axis between I-20 and I-10. That graphic based on a 10:1 ratio would give you estimates in the 5-8 inch range.


Sorry but don't count on much snow the bigger story will be the heavy rain and severe wx potential across S and C FL Monday. Also, something of note is this area of low pressure in the western Gulf. This low will get better organized and spread heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Florida penisula as early as late tomorrow. The latest GFS run is now hinting at this and should see better modeling about this low later tonight as more thunderstorms build around this low in the gulf later tonight. Could be a nice surprise for Florida late tomorrow as this energy moves in earlier than expected.
Quoting Drakoen:


The GFS 12z showed .5-.75in in the heavy snow axis between I-20 and I-10. That graphic based on a 10:1 ratio would give you estimates in the 5-8 inch range.


Well ok back in west-central Texas that's true. I guess I'm focusing more on Dallas/Fort Worth right now. I really don't believe 5-8 inches anywhere with the 12z scenario in any case.

Some forecast graphics reguarding the possible snow event:


From Houston


From Fort Worth


From Abilene.
Wow.

000
NOUS44 KLCH 200247
PNSLCH
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-201800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

...SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR FIRST
TIME IN 114 DAYS
...

AROUND 6 PM TODAY...THE SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE TEXAS FELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 29 2009. THIS
IS AN INCREDIBLE 114 DAYS...OR 3 MONTHS AND 22 DAYS...THAT THIS
RIVER FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND WATER RELEASES FROM TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR HAVE KEPT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SABINE
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

$$

SHAMBURGER
Quoting Levi32:


Well ok back in west-central Texas that's true. I guess I'm focusing more on Dallas/Fort Worth right now. I really don't believe 5-8 inches anywhere with the 12z scenario in any case.



The models now aren't showing much snow at all except west TX. People are snow wishcasting now.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Wow.

000
NOUS44 KLCH 200247
PNSLCH
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-201800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

...SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR FIRST
TIME IN 114 DAYS
...

AROUND 6 PM TODAY...THE SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE TEXAS FELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 29 2009. THIS
IS AN INCREDIBLE 114 DAYS...OR 3 MONTHS AND 22 DAYS...THAT THIS
RIVER FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND WATER RELEASES FROM TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR HAVE KEPT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SABINE
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

$$

SHAMBURGER


Strong to severe storms will erupt in eastern TX later tonight and early Sunday and then spread east along the gulf coast.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The models now aren't showing much snow at all except west TX. People are snow wishcasting now.


If the models are right about a slower shortwave (the GFS is like 12 hours slower from yesterday) then snow will be hard to come by, especially in Dallas.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The models now aren't showing much snow at all except west TX. People are snow wishcasting now.


I don't think anyone is snow wishcasting. I think everyone in north and central Texas will see some snow. The key is assessing how much will fall, where the snow axis will set up and forecast using reasonable snow to liquid ratios based on examining the snow microphysics and vertical soundings.
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think anyone is snow wishcasting. I think everyone in north and central Texas will see some snow. The key is assessing how much will fall, where the snow axis will set up and forecast using reasonable snow to liquid ratios based on examining the snow microphysics and vertical soundings.


I would agree based on yesterday's runs, but if the newer runs are right in slowing down the shortwave, snow will have a hard time making it past west Texas and the mountains of New Mexico. Based on the newer runs, by the time the shortwave makes it far enough east to affect Dallas or Austin, the surface flow will all be northerly, too dry for much snow beyond some flurries.

Right now this is all model play....I think the GFS had a better handle on the situation yesterday, but we'll see how it pans out. This is a harder storm to predict for both Texas and the east coast than the previous storms over the last month.

18z GFS has even less snow totals in eastern and north Texas.

The GFS Bufkit shows the omega maximum of -12ub/s within the dendritic growth zone in western Texas to yield 11-12:1 snow to liquid ratios coupled with a deep saturated layer. So I think it is possible for them to see 6-8 inches of snow if that forecast verifies.

I'm not a fan of the 18z GFS in general due to the lack of data but I do look at all the GFS runs.
The other models seem to think that moisture will get to expand to the north. I'm sure tomorrow's models will have a better grip on the situation but I do agree that the GFS had a better handle on the situation yesterday.
Now see the Canadian has a surface flow coming out of the GOM, while the GFS does not. I'm more inclined to believe the Canadian and yesterday's GFS, which allows snow to come all the way into northern Texas. This morning's GFS runs have something amiss.

32 reported dead in storm on Portuguese island
By DANIEL WOOLLS, Associated Press Writer 1 hr 13 mins ago

MADRID – Flooding and landslides swept away cars and knocked down houses as a violent storm killed at least 32 people Saturday on the Portuguese island of Madeira, a news agency reported.

The Lusa agency quoted the vice president of the Madeira regional government, Joao Cunha e Silva, as saying another 68 people have been hospitalized in the island's main city, Funchal.

Madeira is the main island of a Portuguese archipelago of the same name, in the Atlantic off the northwest coast of Africa.

Floods tore down houses as the storm hit early Saturday. Roads were blocked by fallen trees and rocks carried by flood waters, and some bridges were also downed, Lusa said.

Phone lines were knocked out, forcing emergency rescue services to appeal over local radio stations for off-duty doctors and nurses to report for duty.

Local authorities called in employees to operate heavy machinery like bulldozers to clear roads and remove debris. People in low-lying areas of Funchal fled as flood waters rose, Lusa said.

Madeira regional president Alberto Joao Jardim spoke to European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, who is Portuguese, to appeal for emergency aid from the European Union.

Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates promised that help would be sent from the Portuguese mainland.
I honestly think we should wait for the 00Z model guidance to come out before we jump to conclusions about who doesn't and who does get snow in Texas. Like Levi pointed out, this upcoming potential winter storm is more difficult than normal to forecast. I will say this though, the 18Z runs are not very promising.
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm not a fan of the 18z GFS in general due to the lack of data but I do look at all the GFS runs.


Agreed
Anyone on that wants to talk about the 2010 season? When is Dr. Gray's predictions next come out?
549. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone on that wants to talk about the 2010 season? When is Dr. Gray's predictions next come out?

april
i think...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone on that wants to talk about the 2010 season? When is Dr. Gray's predictions next come out?


His next forecast comes in April.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone on that wants to talk about the 2010 season? When is Dr. Gray's predictions next come out?


from Dr. Gray
Wednesday April 7, Wednesday 2 June, and Wednesday 4 August

from TSR
Tuesday 6th April 2010
552. flsky
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


from Dr. Gray
Wednesday April 7, Wednesday 2 June, and Wednesday 4 August

from TSR
Tuesday 6th April 2010

Hasn't Gray long retired at this point? I think the one in charge now has a name like Klopach or something.
553. JRRP
2/20/2006

2/20/2007

and....

2/20/2010


Kinda quiet in here? Just read this item and thought I would share :)

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/02/new-work-on-the-recent-warming-of-northern-hemispheric-land-are as/
Sunday, February 21, 2010 at 00:56:47 UTC
Saturday, February 20, 2010 at 06:56:47 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 16.985°N, 85.510°W
Depth 10.2 km (6.3 miles)
Region NORTH OF HONDURAS
Distances 175 km (110 miles) WSW of Swan Island
190 km (120 miles) NE of La Ceiba, Honduras
370 km (230 miles) NNE of TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras
1110 km (690 miles) SSW of Miami, Florida

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 19.8 km (12.3 miles); depth +/- 3.5 km (2.2 miles)
Parameters NST=150, Nph=154, Dmin=463.1 km, Rmss=1.4 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2010szag
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
6:00 AM FST February 21 2010
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11 (1005 hPa) located at 6.0S 162.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-35 knots, 60 to 150 NM away from the center in sectors northwest through northeast to east. Position POOR based on GOES visible/enhanced infrared imagery with animation. Depression moving east at 8 knots.

Overall organization improved past 6 hrs with spiral band acquiring some curvature. Tops about center cooling. Outflow developing. Shear over system around 10-20 knots. Stronger shear region just south of depressio. System lies under divergent region. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=1.5, PT=1.5, MET=1.0 FT based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS.

System steered east by equatorial westerlies. Low to mid level ridge to northeast expected to turn system poleward, gradually. Global models agree on a gradual southeast turn with little or no intensification.

Potential for TD 11F to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hrs is MODERATE.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWENTY-FOUR
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GELANE (12-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion February 21 2010
=================================

Pre-Cyclone Alert for Réunion Island - Yellow Alert

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Gelane (983 hPa) located at 20.8S 61.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 60.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 22.4S 59.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 23.9S 56.4E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.3S 53.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System has temporarily stopped weakening. It is expected to recurve southwestward within the next 24 hrs and begin weakening again.
Post 553, Interesting comparisons there JRRP.
In 2009 it rained until mid-March here (Trinidad), this year has been exceedingly dry and windy. No rain to speak of, since mid-December.
Dec. and Nov. rainfall were 1/3 of average (10 yr av.) at my location.
Venezuela is experiencing the worst water situation in over 100 years, according to the Gov. there.
Quoting pottery:
Post 553, Interesting comparisons there JRRP.
In 2009 it rained until mid-March here (Trinidad), this year has been exceedingly dry and windy. No rain to speak of, since mid-December.
Dec. and Nov. rainfall were 1/3 of average (10 yr av.) at my location.
Venezuela is experiencing the worst water situation in over 100 years, according to the Gov. there.


I hope you don't get a lot of rain all at once.
Streaming live video by Ustream
Looking out my front window. Another Beautiful Day here in Sydney,

LOL Aussie. Me too! Just a little at a time would be fine. Actually, some tonight would be Fantastic. Cisterns are already at half empty! Last rainy season they overflowed twice. Usually, they overflow many times.
It's all Al Gore's fault. Apparently.
563. JRRP
Quoting pottery:
Post 553, Interesting comparisons there JRRP.
In 2009 it rained until mid-March here (Trinidad), this year has been exceedingly dry and windy. No rain to speak of, since mid-December.
Dec. and Nov. rainfall were 1/3 of average (10 yr av.) at my location.
Venezuela is experiencing the worst water situation in over 100 years, according to the Gov. there.


here in Dom.Rep is very dry as well
Definately looking at all rain around here until Monday Evening For Central Indiana

VIDEO

Looking at longer range, the shear signs of Early Spring are showing up! Let the madness begin!
Quoting pottery:
LOL Aussie. Me too! Just a little at a time would be fine. Actually, some tonight would be Fantastic. Cisterns are already at half empty! Last rainy season they overflowed twice. Usually, they overflow many times.
It's all Al Gore's fault. Apparently.


Nah....that's just exactly what a Warm PDO does to your part of the world. You'll see that gradually reverse over the next decade. It's not a surprise you're exceptionally dry this year considering we are coming off the 2nd most powerful El Nino (impact-wise) observed, with the 1998 El Nino being 1st.
JR, I thought that you had some heavy rains a week or so ago? I know that Haiti had some
Good Grief, Levi. I have to put up with this for a DECADE?
By then, I may be too old to notice or care!
I think I'll move to Central Indiana. Sounds good to me there!
Levi, what is the latest forecast for June/July/Aug, Nino?Nina?Neutral?
Quoting pottery:
Good Grief, Levi. I have to put up with this for a DECADE?
By then, I may be too old to notice or care!
I think I'll move to Central Indiana. Sounds good to me there!


Lol, we're already coming down off the warm cycle of the PDO. 10 years from now we'll be well into the middle of the cold cycle. I just mean that between now and then will be a transitioning period. We're really already almost there so it won't be long.

570. JRRP
Quoting pottery:
JR, I thought that you had some heavy rains a week or so ago? I know that Haiti had some

yeah but even so.. is below average
Quoting pottery:
Levi, what is the latest forecast for June/July/Aug, Nino?Nina?Neutral?


I think it will be right around neutral, and the models do agree. I don't see a strong nina coming on this hurricane season, but El Nino is definitely falling off its peak and we should be in neutral territory for most or all of the hurricane season.



Us (not quite as much as you islanders - :))thin bloods here in Fla., probably will not complain about the heat of Summer for a long time. It has been cold, and pretty much dry, and brown, scary brown for fire hazards moving forward.. As I type in my garage, I shiver. This is not what I was sold on for moving here 25 years ago. LoL



OK thanks. And I found the graph that JR posted this morning on the Nino/Nina/Neutral.
Looks a little ominous to me!
Yeah JR, I did not realise you were short of rain as well, for the last season.
Fires are already burning here, and we have in place water restrictions already.
The good news is, that the Authorities have decided it is time to fix leaks in the pipes, and now that we have no water we have fewer leaks. Strange stuff...

(it is stated by the Water Authority that we lose 60% of our water through leaking distribution networks. And this statement was made without any feeling of guilt or blame at all....)
You gonna have to move further south, Oss!
Quoting pottery:
You gonna have to move further south, Oss!


I emailed Castro on renting the other side of his Duplex... I can't afford it,,, the monthly fee's are horrendous. J/K :)
The latest NAM 00z looks dreadful for any type of significant snowfall accumulations in Texas. It has the shortwave energy stuck over the 4 corners region as the precipitation advects eastward. Also the vorticity shears out to the ENE.
Quoting Drakoen:
The latest NAM 00z looks dreadful for any type of significant snowfall accumulations in Texas. It has the shortwave energy stuck over the 4 corners region as the precipitation advects eastward. Also the vorticity shears out to the ENE.


Wow I just looked at it....that's disgusting.
579. JRRP
Quoting pottery:
OK thanks. And I found the graph that JR posted this morning on the Nino/Nina/Neutral.
Looks a little ominous to me!

you meant this??
hey guys you know anything about this

Link
Quoting Levi32:


Wow I just looked at it....that's disgusting.


Almost wish I didn't look at it lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys you know anything about this

Link


I've tracked a few of those. They're so cool when they happen. It's too bad that ocean doesn't really have a hurricane season. I think that would rock :)
Yes. Looks to be neutral. And with all other factors (SST, etc etc), we likely will not see a lot of shearing going on this year. So plenty potential there in the Atl. As of now.
,
Quoting pottery:
Yes. Looks to be neutral. And with all other factors (SST, etc etc), we likely will not see a lot of shearing going on this year. So plenty potential there in the Atl. As of now.
,

Goody goody just what we need.
00z GFS looks good in terms of QPF heavy snow axis setting up between I-20 and 1-10.
Quoting Drakoen:
00z GFS looks good in terms of QPF heavy snow axis setting up between I-20 and 1-10.

I hope it's not this far south in ms,today was nice and warm,watched hs baseball game.
Has the number of eartquakes gotten more frequent to any of ya'll?
589. xcool
99 days 2010 season
A major snowstorm is poised to bury the eastern seaboard from Atlanta to Bangor late this week(it appears)!
592. StormW 5:04 AM GMT on February 21, 2010

Ouch...I guess the European thinks the GOM and SW Atlantic will catch up fast from their current deficit of 2C below normal.

Quoting StormW:


Yikes...Looks like the ECMWF wants to warm up the Gulf to back above normal levels between now and May. If that's correct we should see winter abruptly end sometime in the next few weeks. Keep in mind that is only May, I can't imagine what that map will look like by July rolls around.

Also... Notice the Neutral ENSO.
597. IKE
Three weeks from today starts daylight savings time. My average high and low for today is...70/50.

Warm front heading north....

good morning hard to sleep in when there weather out there. 57f e cent florida
599. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
good morning hard to sleep in when there weather out there. 57f e cent florida


It was a beautiful day here in the panhandle yesterday. I contributed to GW by burning leaves for 3 1/2 hours.

High yesterday was 69.6 at a PWS about 6 miles from me.
Small earthquake shakes Goulburn, NSW, Australia

* From: AAP

A SMALL earthquake has gently shaken the NSW town of Goulburn.

The 3.0 magnitude quake occurred at 0550 AEDT on Sunday, with its epicentre 10km west-northwest of the southern NSW town.

No damage was reported but the tremor was felt within a 30km radius, Australian Seismological Centre director Kevin McCue said.

"It was felt throughout Goulburn and it sounded like an explosion," he told AAP.

"It's a bit small to do any damage."

There was a 67 per cent probability of another small earthquake striking the townships of Gunning and Dalton, west of Goulburn, he added.

"You have a reasonable chance of having one in that spot," Mr McCue said.

A 4.0 magnitude quake occurred in the area, on average, about once every two decades.

An earthquake like that last occurred in 1984.

A 5.5 magnitude earthquake shook Gunning and Dalton in 1949, breaking windows but causing no injuries.

A major fault line runs under Lake George, near Canberra.
Quoting IKE:


It was a beautiful day here in the panhandle yesterday. I contributed to GW by burning leaves for 3 1/2 hours.

High yesterday was 69.6 at a PWS about 6 miles from me.
be careful with mulch around the home. supposing alot of it comes from katrina leftovers a fellow nurse picked up a terrible infection after working with it
602. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
be careful with mulch around the home. supposing alot of it comes from katrina leftovers a fellow nurse picked up a terrible infection after working with it


Thanks...I wear gloves when I'm picking up leaves.
good morning everyone

how are you guys doing
what are the models are saying
what is the latest view on this Atlantic hurricane season and
we need more rain I feel like a fish out of water
Hey everyone! Good morning to all!
It's been a while since I've been around here.
Just wanted to say, it's incredible how hot and dry it has been in Puerto Rico!!
January was the rainiest in a long time (but we got all that rain in a 2 - 4 day period) and now February has panned out to be one of the driest ever. Apart from being so dry it is also very hot. We hit 90 last week, something that on average shouldn't happen until mid March (usually around March 18).
It FINALLY rained yesterday and a bit today.
Could this be a sign of this year's hurricane season?
I guess it can mean the ocean is hotter, but this dry spell also means the air is dry, which doesn't help tropical systems.
Any thoughts?
Quoting Bordonaro:


looks good haha
Hi Benirica.
Welcome to the "Hot Dry Club"
90 f right now here with 46% humidity.



Took a road trip with a Portlight member to New Iberia,La. Friday and we saw the Warehouse barge "Caroline" that will be taking rice,tents,and Medical Equipment and Water to Haiti this week.

Below,the Blue Bags are tents and shelters.





609. JRRP
Quoting pottery:
Hi Benirica.
Welcome to the "Hot Dry Club"
90 f right now here with 46% humidity.

jajajajajaja
Today's 12z NAM and GFS look excellent for significant accumulation in central Texas and is nudging the moisture a bit further to the north. Both models show the heavy snow axis occuring between I-20 and I-10; the NAM shows mainly 5-7 inches of snow and up to 8-10 inches of snow in eastern central Texas; and the GFS shows 5-7 inches as well but a wide swath of 8-10 inches from San Angelo to just east of Waco. Highest snow to liquid ratio could be around 12:1 Tuesday afternoon over these areas. The NAM has a sharp cut-off in the precipitation around and just north of 1-20 which is supported by the 00z CMC. The GFS manages to nudge the accumulating snow a bit further north into Dallas and Forth Worth.

Looking at the ECMWF and GFS, both models are indicating a more compact vorticity of the shortwave over central Texas which would help with the dynamic lift over the area as the shortwave moves eastward the ECMWF shows phasing with a polar coming into the Great Lakes region, while the GFS hints that potential.
Drak,..can ya give me a McComb,Miss update as I was really impressed with ya last McComb forecast on last weeks snow storm.

Im terrible with these storms on Land.

Thanx
Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida



Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Quoting Patrap:
Drak,..can ya give me a McComb,Miss update as I was really impressed with ya last McComb forecast on last weeks snow storm.

Im terrible with these storms on Land.

Thanx


Prospects for McComb don't look that great. The GFS and UKMET shows dry northerly flow encroaching in the wake of the precipitation of the significant precipitation. Any light precip looks to be in the form of virga. The NAM 12Z shows positive vorticity advection in the form of sheared vorticity in an elongated positively tilted trough. This would give McComb around 1-2inches of snow. The CMC shows suspect light precipitation when 850mb temperatures get under 0C; which may yield trace amounts of snow.

Right now I would say a 10% chance of snow. Your best bet would be to drive over between Alexandria and Shreveport if you really want to see snow.
Invest 94P has really ramped up overnight, and has for the first time developed a large, sustained CDO. Some westerly wind shear is beginning to affecting the system, and as a result the surface center is located under the NW edge of the CDO. Convection and outflow are also very limited on the western side of the system. This shear is due to the sub-tropical jet that I've mentioned the last few days. This jet doesn't look like it wants to move much, and this could be a big problem for 94P if it continues to move southeastward. A TCFA has been issued for Invest 94P, but this system was easily a TD yesterday, and is probably worthy of a name right now. I expect further gradual strengthening of the system today, but increasing wind shear will likely cap this storm at 45-50 knots. A general slow south to southeasterly motion will continue over the next few days.



^^Click the image for a loop^^
Thanx Drak...Spring is a welcomed one this year.
Been too cold here,..we may hit 70F here for the first time in 2010.
GFS is pounding Arctic outbreaks first week of March like a bull in a china cabinet. Looks like March coming in like a Lion
More freezes on the way if this pans out for the deep south
Man this is going to be close for Dallas to try to get 2 inches and break their all-time snow record. The shortwave looks like it ends up being too flat and the low-level convergence zone at 5000 feet sets up just south of I-20, with a sharp cutoff to the north due to a strong northerly flow bringing in dry, arctic air behind the system.

12z GFS 54-hour 500mb:



12z GFS 54-hour 850mb:



Quoting Patrap:
Thanx Drak...Spring is a welcomed one this year.
Been too cold here,..we may hit 70F here for the first time in 2010.

??? Look at Jan 20 to 23...
Though, overall, yes has been well below average since...mid Dec?
Quoting RitaEvac:
GFS is pounding Arctic outbreaks first week of March like a bull in a china cabinet. Looks like March coming in like a Lion


The first 2 weeks of March are probably going to be nasty. The GFS is showing the replenishing of the arctic airmass over Canada due to a cross-polar flow created by the amplified block over Alaska. This will really juice up the pattern for the east half of the U.S. for the next couple weeks. You guys haven't had a true arctic airmass to the north for a while now.

No sneaux, but GFS not seeing much over 50F for 5 days in NOLA...
(though, I cannot tell if this is from the 6 Z or 12 Z run...important as it could only be showing 6 pm and 6 am)

Quoting Levi32:
Man this is going to be close for Dallas to try to get 2 inches and break their all-time snow record. The shortwave looks like it ends up being too flat and the low-level convergence zone at 5000 feet sets up just south of I-20, with a sharp cutoff to the north due to a strong northerly flow bringing in dry, arctic air behind the system.

12z GFS 54-hour 500mb:



12z GFS 54-hour 850mb:





Did you look at the ECMWF on that shortwave?

Quoting Drakoen:


Did you look at the ECMWF on that shortwave?



Yeah the UKMET has slightly lower heights than the GFS too but that's still really close for Dallas. I think the phasing comes too late for significant snow in Dallas, and snow ends very fast for everyone once the shortwave moves off to the east and the northerly flow chokes off all the moisture. I really hope they get their 2 inches though lol.
626. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Enjoy dis one Ike,..15 years ago now


LOL....thanks....
Just took a look at the GFS 12z bufkit data between San Angelo and Waco and i'm seeing totals anywhere from 6-10 inches. What's creating such high totals is the omega maximum around -35 lining up within the dentritic growth zone up near 13,000ft-15,000ft with steep mid level lapse rates.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah the UKMET has slightly lower heights than the GFS too but that's still really close for Dallas. I think the phasing comes too late for significant snow in Dallas, and snow ends very fast for everyone once the shortwave moves off to the east and the northerly flow chokes off all the moisture. I really hope they get their 2 inches though lol.


I think they will see 1-2 inches in the southern metroplex. It really is a shame to see such a sharp cut off but it looks like the models are picking up on the this northerly flow quite well to inhibit snowfall.
Quoting benirica:
Hey everyone! Good morning to all!
It's been a while since I've been around here.
Just wanted to say, it's incredible how hot and dry it has been in Puerto Rico!!
January was the rainiest in a long time (but we got all that rain in a 2 - 4 day period) and now February has panned out to be one of the driest ever. Apart from being so dry it is also very hot. We hit 90 last week, something that on average shouldn't happen until mid March (usually around March 18).
It FINALLY rained yesterday and a bit today.
Could this be a sign of this year's hurricane season?
I guess it can mean the ocean is hotter, but this dry spell also means the air is dry, which doesn't help tropical systems.
Any thoughts?
Quoting pottery:
Hi Benirica.
Welcome to the "Hot Dry Club"
90 f right now here with 46% humidity.


Momentarily hot and dry for now, and only going to get hotter. However low pressure will soon fill the Caribbean and bring in wetter-than average weather by May (bad for the Amazon). By July, air pressure will be below normal and air temperatures, SSTs, and precipitation will all be above normal, with the WHWP setting off early and the warm anomaly stretching from Spain to West Africa to most of the Caribbean (wasn't this big even in 2005), caused by the slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, to fill up into the Caribbean and GOM, leading to an active hurricane season (like 2004 and 2005).
Current global SSTs...notice the <20C zone of the Humboldt shrinking further, as the area at 30N has a coolest temperature of 19C and the coolest anywhere in the current is a warm 17C.

Quoting Drakoen:


I think they will see 1-2 inches in the southern metroplex. It really is a shame to see such a sharp cut off but it looks like the models are picking up on the this northerly flow quite well to inhibit snowfall.


Yeah it is a shame...I agree with the 1-2 inches sneaking up into the southern metro. Hopefully they get just enough to sneak this record through. They have a better shot at it if the ECMWF is right, which spreads low to mid-level moisture all the way up to the TX/OK border. Tiny variations will mean a lot here for Dallas.
The CMC 12z looks as dreadful as the NAM 00z.
Hi guys again
how are you guys doing
what is the latest view on this Atlantic hurricane season and
we need more rain I feel like a fish out of water
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi guys again
how are you guys doing
what is the latest view on this Atlantic hurricane season and
we need more rain I feel like a fish out of water


That's El Nino for ya...the entire Caribbean is typically dry during a warm ENSO. You guys will probably see that reverse this summer though. It looks like tropical waves will have a good chance of retaining moisture and making it into the Caribbean to give you guys a soaking, hopefully not in the form of hurricanes, but there will definitely be a few of those in the Caribbean this year.
In any case the NWS offices in Texas need to up their totals or they are going to end up with another forecast bust like what happened with the last system that gave significant snow to Texas.
Quoting Drakoen:
In any case the NWS offices in Texas need to up their totals or they are going to end up with another forecast bust like what happened with the last system that gave significant snow to Texas.


Indeed. You'd think they'd follow the model QPF amounts with fierce loyalty like they usually do.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
818 am CST sun Feb 21 2010



Synopsis...
..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this morning. The sounding shows
something we have not seen in quite a few days this morning...that
being a precipitable water value over one inch. The moisture is confined to the
lower 15k feet of the atmosphere and is non existent above that.
Still a bit of a warm nose from 850mb to the surface which is
expected to fade by this afternoon and evening. Some decent
directional shear in place but not much in the way of speed shear
this morning with less than 20 knots through 6km. A decision on a
special sounding will be made soon...but the normal release time of
18z for the special sounding may still be too early. The regular
00z synoptic flight will likely be a better indicator of what is on
the way tonight.

98/so

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CST sun Feb 21 2010/


Short term...
some severe weather situations are clear cut...not this one. A warm front
passes through the region today. Ts break out ahead of the cold
front moreso along a prefrontal trough. Relatively weak to
moderate upper and middle level support normally lend to less than
severe ts activity. But there will be an opportunity for convection
to go surface based by evening. This will give rise to the possibility
of a severe ts. Will go with what we already have in the severe weather potential statement...mostly
strong with isolated severe ts possible showing variables of hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards. Can't say there will be no
tornadic activity...but directional shear is weak with and only
shows up to 250 m2/s2 helicity values from 0-3km depth. This value
ofcourse changes along any boundary and we will see the warm
frontal boundary and a cold front boundary move through the area
which will increase this value as they move through. Basically the
only places if any that a spin up would be located would be along
these boudary environments. The actual cold front is lagging a bit
and finally moves through after midnight.


SW jet continues to be quite active over the area. The surface low
helps lift moisture well into the upper levels where the jet can
get access to it. The jet then brings and deposits this moisture
over Texas la and miss on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The question on
everyones mind is with the cold air advection ongoing at the time
will we see some wintry mix. This is going to be a close one...the
moisture is moving out as the column finally gets to or below
freezing. The middle level ridge providing the cold air...that
continues to move into the area...is also forcing the moisture
shield southeast. If there will be an opportunity for any frozen precipitation
it will be on the very back edge of the moisture. Will continue
with the ongoing fcast at this time as confidence in this happening is
very low.


Long term...
next system develops Friday near brn. A weak frontal system will move out
of Texas at about the same time. The Gulf low looks to become the
dominant feature and throws a lot of moisture over cool air
already in place over the Gulf south Friday night into Sat morning.
Other than rainfall...no issues are expected with this system.


We should begin to see the next more significant system develop
over Texas starting Sunday. Eventhough this is seven plus days
out...confidence is quite high with this system developing and
the surface low moving through the deep south. This would be the
system to watch since it will want to occlude as it is moving
through and should be able to provide a deep moist column as
synoptic forcing is found over the deep Gulf where warmer temperatures
are located. Will leave this scenario out of severe weather potential statement for now...but
only because it falls outside current fcast cycle
.
Forgive my ignorance, but how reliable is a model in February calling for an above average rainy May for the Caribbean?
Thanks for that info by the way!
Quoting benirica:
Forgive my ignorance, but how reliable is a model in February calling for an above average rainy May for the Caribbean?
Thanks for that info by the way!


Climate models should be taken with a grain of salt, but they usually do a fairly good job in the short-term (3-6 months). What makes me confident in this particular forecast is the fact that we are in a dying El Nino. This along with the SST profile in the Atlantic supports the model forecast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out for now. Later all.
Ahh, just saw my question answered on another post. It will get wet here again once el niño switches off (or neutral).
Thanks levi32!
Let's hope we get rain soon, fires will kick up soon here if it doesn't! But I'm crossing my fingers that rain is neither nonstop nor in the form of a tropical storm or hurricane.
Hmmm. Reading the forecasts here, for a wetter than recent WetSeason in the Caribbean. And looking at the photos from Madiera!!.
We (Trinidad) have really been blessed so far with the heavy rainfall that comes with Tropical Waves etc.
The Capital City (Port-of-Spain) is situated at the foot of the hills and in the 'mouth' of several large steep valleys. Most of the Towns along the south slopes of the Northern Range are similarly situated in Valleys with rivers and streams.
We frequently have isolated heavy flooding in these towns, when a cloudburst can dump 4" in 2-3 hrs and the rivers overflow their banks. But no lasting damage and few if any injuries.
But sustained heavy rain, on saturated hillsides would be the recipe for real trouble.
I am looking forward to a more active Hurricane season this year, but I sure dont wish for any Horrors here or anywhere else.
Any way of knowing how the SAL will be?
Quoting Levi32:


That's El Nino for ya...the entire Caribbean is typically dry during a warm ENSO. You guys will probably see that reverse this summer though. It looks like tropical waves will have a good chance of retaining moisture and making it into the Caribbean to give you guys a soaking, hopefully not in the form of hurricanes, but there will definitely be a few of those in the Caribbean this year.


when will we likely see our first tropical wave
646. Relix
Just chiming in to ask if this will be a neutral season with El Nino passing away? Neutral years are usually the worst for us here in the Caribbean right?
Relix, the forecast is for a Neutral el nino.
So that would suggest a wetter than usual season in the Carib.
Benirica, no way to accurately forecast the SAL as yet.
In fact, the recent forecasts for that have been pretty wrong.
Heavy SAL would tamp-down waves in the mid atlantic, but would not affect waves in the Caribbean as much.
As a matter of interest, the temp on my shaded patio is now 94F, with smoke in the air.
Not very nice.......
One to bookmark as we slide into 2010

ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)
Quoting atmoaggie:
No sneaux, but GFS not seeing much over 50F for 5 days in NOLA...
(though, I cannot tell if this is from the 6 Z or 12 Z run...important as it could only be showing 6 pm and 6 am)


Those graphics only update every 12 hours for the 00Z and 12Z runs.
The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.


Hey all It's been a long time since I have last been posting on here, but I have to admit that I do not have a good feeling about the 2010 hurricane season. I have been reading numerous articles, and blogs and many feel that El-nino will be declining rapidly just in time for the meat of the hurricance season.

So I come here to ask, is there any proof to that happening? I certainly do not want to scare people I just want to get the outlook on the upcoming season. Thanks to all that contribute information. And It is a beautiful day here in South Florida!
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.




Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?
march roars in like a lion
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?


The GFS is showing something similar as well. Definitely something to keep and eye on.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Those graphics only update every 12 hours for the 00Z and 12Z runs.

Aha! Thanks.
WOCN11 CWTO 212010
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 3:10 PM EST Sunday
21 February 2010.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

A developing low pressure system over Oklahoma will track slowly
northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow.

Snow in advance of this system is forecast to reach the Windsor area
after midnight, spread through the rest of Southwestern Ontario on
Monday morning, then reach the Toronto to Barrie area by early
afternoon.

The snow is expected continue into the evening hours on Monday, then
taper off from west to east overnight and Tuesday morning.
For regions in Southwestern Ontario, especially near the Lake Erie
shoreline, the precipitation will likely change to wet snow or rain
before ending. Some freezing rain is also probable in this area.

Total snowfall amounts for most regions are expected to be in the 10
to 15 cm range.

At this time, snowfall or freezing rain warning criteria are not
expected to be reached. However, some uncertainty still exists and
Environment Canada continues to closely monitor this developing
situation.

Listen for further statements. Additional information may also be
found by consulting the latest public forecast. The next public
forecast will be issued by 3.30 PM.

END/OSPC


Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.


What a beautiful Upper Level Low.
Based on analog years for the past five hurricane seasons, and early-season SST anomalies, I predict that the 2010 hurricane season will produce:

16 named storms
7 major hurricanes
7 Caribbean storms
5 Cape Verde storms
4 US landfalling hurricanes
9 storms in the current >+1.0C anomaly area from the Canary Islands to Western Caribbean
4 retired names
663. beell
Axis of best isentropic ascent of moisture on the 300k surface to the snow growth zone over San Angelo, TX (KJST). Somewhere between 550/650 mb as a rough estimate.
5-6" of snow possible.

Based on the 12ZNAM, valid 12Z Tuesday.

Photobucket

Direct link to graphic


Definitely a cyclone
0_o looks like a 4 day snow event for the northeast, eventually the coast will get in on it too.
Quoting MrstormX:


Definitely a cyclone


That storm is about to plough directly through a 30C+ area, the easternmost such pocket within the ENSO warm pool.
Quoting StormW:


Regardless...even if El Nino stays as "weak", if the Atlantic and MDR a warmer than the EPAC, you get the net effect of "neutral" conditions


I think that El Nino will be at neutral to slightly above by mid-season. This is almost exactly the type of conditions that took place in 2004 and 2005. Also the WHWP will likely develop this year in the Caribbean months ahead of schedule.
Quoting beell:
Axis of best isentropic ascent of moisture on the 300k surface to the snow growth zone over San Angelo, TX (KJST). Somewhere between 550/650 mb as a rough estimate.
5-6" of snow possible.

Based on the 12ZNAM, valid 12Z Tuesday.

Photobucket


I don't even think the NAM is showing that much for KSJT; the NAM vertical soundings in the bufkit are very different from the GFS. The NAM is showing the best omega region beneath snow growth zone which would result in lower snow to liquid ratios. I would estimate around 3-4 inches based on the NAM bufkit.
671. barak
It is just too darn warm in Oregon. Man, going to have start watering well before July again. El Nino is nothing but a bug generating water slurping, snow melting mess up here.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Based on analog years for the past five hurricane seasons, and early-season SST anomalies, I predict that the 2010 hurricane season will produce:

16 named storms
7 major hurricanes
7 Caribbean storms
5 Cape Verde storms
4 US landfalling hurricanes
9 storms in the current >+1.0C anomaly area from the Canary Islands to Western Caribbean
4 retired names


Basically to sum it up: 2008 part 2.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I'm really surprised about that area west of Peru. It looks like the Humboldt has retreated spetacularly.
Global SSTs again:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That looks set to change as above-average temperatures and precipitation are expected in most of that SAL area by early hurricane season.
679. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't even think the NAM is showing that much for KSJT; the NAM vertical soundings in the bufkit are very different from the GFS. The NAM is showing the best omega region beneath snow growth zone which would result in lower snow to liquid ratios. I would estimate around 3-4 inches based on the NAM bufkit.


Hard to say, Drak. Somewhere between KJST and KACT for the heaviest maybe. The NAM certainly likes Waco. The BUFKIT soundings are so nice to look at-how could they be wrong, LOL?

Still a little mindful of the dry northerly flow the farther east you go across central TX.

Future shape of the shortwave has yet to reveal itself to me. Base of the shortwave just nosing into northern CA.
RAMSDIS IR/WV

Or here-11th frame down, on the right side of the page

well, maybe RAMSDIS blocks them all now...
Quoting beell:


Hard to say, Drak. Somewhere between KJST and KACT for the heaviest maybe. The NAM certainly likes Waco. The BUFKIT soundings are so nice to look at-how could they be wrong, LOL?

Still a little mindful of the dry northerly flow the farther east you go across central TX.

Future shape of the shortwave has yet to reveal itself to me. Base of the shortwave just nosing into northern CA.
RAMSDIS IR/WV


LOL!!!

I change around data in the bufkit to include my snow to liquid ratio estimates based on averaging the zone omega ratios with the standard ratios. The Bufkit is the best thing to look at in terms of forecasting snow. My current thinking is for the heaviest snow to occur around Brownwood eastward towards Waco. That's where the heavy snow axis should set up where the frontogenetical forcing will be the strongest with steep mid level lapse rates to allow for heavy snow bands to form. I'm leaning towards the GFS and ECMWF solution which would give San Angelo more around 6-8inches. I could see 8-12 inches of snow in Brownwood and Waco.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST BULLISH. WE HAVE USED A
BLEND FOR OUR SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST. THE WEST TO EAST SNOW BAND
WILL STRETCH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH OUR
AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LLANO...BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES WITH 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTY.
NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO ONE-HALF INCH. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM...SO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES.

683. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL!!!

I change around data in the bufkit to include my snow to liquid ratio estimates based on averaging the zone omega ratios with the standard ratios. The Bufkit is the best thing to look at in terms of forecasting snow. My current thinking is for the heaviest snow to occur around Brownwood eastward towards Waco. That's where the heavy snow axis should set up where the frontogenetical forcing will be the strongest with steep mid level lapse rates to allow for heavy snow bands to form. I'm leaning towards the GFS and ECMWF solution which would give San Angelo more around 6-8inches. I could see 8-12 inches of snow in Brownwood and Waco.


Those same BUFKIT soundings are only showing 5-6°C/km lapse rates (500mb-700mb). Mostly due to the mid-level trough hanging back (in the models). ADDED: And also limit the amount of forcing from any type of front untill the mid-level trough finaly pulls through the area.
Quoting beell:


Those same BUFKIT soundings are only showing 5-6°C/km lapse rates (500mb-700mb). Mostly due to the mid-level trough hanging back (in the models).


I'm looking at the GFS soundings which are near steep conditions around 7.5C/km
685. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm looking at the GFS soundings which are near steep conditions around 7.5C/km


Through what layer?
Quoting beell:


Through what layer?


500mb-700mb:

687. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


500mb-700mb:



Match that up with the surface and 850mb temps.
Quoting beell:


Match that up with the surface and 850mb temps.


I did that. 850mb temps between -3C to 0C. Surface temperatures in the lower to mid 30s. I mentioned steep lapse rate in respect to heavy snowfall which will probably cool the surface faster and allow the snow to accumulate.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Global SSTs again:


global SSTs measured in the last week


(Click for full size)

690. beell
Drak,
So that brings us back to shape and track of the mid-level energy. Would this be a good spot to continue this discussion at a later time?

Appreciate your thoughts!

This was the most intersting excerpt from NWS discussion from FW NWS office. This covers the area waco and N.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WE ARE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO COME FROM BANDING
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES. BEING MESOSCALE IN NATURE...WE MAY NOT HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES UNTIL 6-12 HRS
BEFORE THEY DEVELOP.
Quoting beell:
Drak,
So that brings us back to shape and track of the mid-level energy. Would this be a good spot to continue this discussion at a later time?

Appreciate your thoughts!




If you wish to continue the discussion at a later time that is fine. The models differ on the shape on the mid level energy. The GFS looks less elongated than it did yesterday but it's still shearing out the vorticity as it the PVA moves eastward. It's tracking down through the Texas/Mexico border. The ECMWF has a much more organized shortwave with the vorticity being more compact. The NAM seems to have issues ejecting the shortwave out of the four corners region and show several embedded vortices within the trough. My thoughts are the the shortwave may end up looking more like the ECMWF which has a relatively consistent showing of the vort max associated with the shortwave. With the shortwave axis being just west of the precipitation with the stimulation from vertical acsent in the right entrance region of the jet stream would yield higher amounts of QPF.
Winter storm warning is up for areas between I-20 and I-10 in Texas.

GFS 18z has spread the moisture further northward and eastward to even give coastal communities of Texas a shot at some snow. GFS attempting cyclogenesis in the GOM may be the reason for this.
I assume you mean winter storm watch. HGX is also considering issuing one for my area. From HGX:

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AFT AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE N/NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS
INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE. MAY SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
THIS LINE. IT IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
SETS UP. WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE DECIDING
ON A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF
OUR N/NW COUNTIES. STAY TUNED. FURTHER SOUTH...WE COULD BE IN AN
ADVISORY SITUATION FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. HARD TO DRAW THIS
LINE ATTM.
A brief warm up for us in so. Fla., then another cool down later this week:

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Feb 21 Tonight
Cloudy with a few showers. Low 62F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Feb 22 Tomorrow
Cloudy with occasional showers. Thunder possible. High 74F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Feb 22 Tomorrow night
Rain showers in the evening becoming more intermittent overnight. Thunder possible. Low 62F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Feb 23 Tuesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Feb 24 Wednesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Feb 25 Thursday
Sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
Feb 26 Friday
A few clouds. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
Feb 27 Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.
Feb 28 Sunday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 1 Monday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 2 Tuesday
Showers. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I assume you mean winter storm watch. HGX is also considering issuing one for my area. From HGX:

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AFT AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE N/NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS
INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE. MAY SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
THIS LINE. IT IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
SETS UP. WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE DECIDING
ON A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF
OUR N/NW COUNTIES. STAY TUNED. FURTHER SOUTH...WE COULD BE IN AN
ADVISORY SITUATION FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. HARD TO DRAW THIS
LINE ATTM.


You could see 1-2 inches in College Station
Quoting StormW:




I see that you are using MY SST anomaly image! :P

Quoting atmoaggie:

global SSTs measured in the last week


(Click for full size)


Are the black areas cloud cover? If so then that's a storm directly over the area that's poised to let the ENSO warm pool spin out of control.
Quoting Drakoen:
Winter storm warning is up for areas between I-20 and I-10 in Texas.

GFS 18z has spread the moisture further northward and eastward to even give coastal communities of Texas a shot at some snow. GFS attempting cyclogenesis in the GOM may be the reason for this.
Please post link, I'm not seeing the warnings at this time.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I see that you are using MY SST anomaly image! :P



Are the black areas cloud cover? If so then that's a storm directly over the area that's poised to let the ENSO warm pool spin out of control.

Yes, black areas, outside of landmass, are persistent cloudiness.

(No comment on that out-of-controlness)
701. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Basically to sum it up: 2008 part 2.

exactly
I can't divulge the sources but the plane that crashed into building housing IRS offices hit a main steal beam head on, why you see tail of plane outside of building. If he flew feet higher or lower the body count would have been much higher. It's also expected he had 55 gallon drums onboard.
Quoting pottery:
As a matter of interest, the temp on my shaded patio is now 94F, with smoke in the air.
Not very nice.......

What you smoking?
I have 89F and heading for 95F. Clear blue skys and a light NNE breeze.
whatever yer smoking

evening aussie or good morning
Quoting centex:
.
I can't divulge the sources but the plane that crashed into building housing IRS offices hit a main steel beam head on, why you see tail of plane outside of building. If he flew feet higher or lower the body count would have been much higher. It's also expected he had 55 gallon drums onboard
Quoting centex:
I can't divulge the sources but the plane that crashed into building housing IRS offices hit a main steel beam head on, why you see tail of plane outside of building. If he flew feet higher or lower the body count would have been much higher. It's also expected he had 55 gallon drums onboard
Sorry for repeat, was trying to correct typos.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whatever yer smoking

evening aussie or good morning


I hear your going to have snow.. sorry to hear that.. (snicker snicker)

Between gardening, mowing the lawn.. and golfing... its been a nice weekend :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I hear your going to have snow.. sorry to hear that.. (snicker snicker)

Between gardening, mowing the lawn.. and golfing... its been a nice weekend :)
It's been a warm sunny and very dry day here, so while snow may be forecasted we have vey nice weather today also. Didn't get the clubs out but wished I did but did prepare garden for planting.
Quoting centex:
It's been a warm sunny and very dry day here, so while snow may be forecasted we have vey nice weather today also. Didn't get the clubs out but wished I did but did prepare garden for planting.


Its been to warm here... was 15 yesterday and 13 today.. no clouds at all.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I hear your going to have snow.. sorry to hear that.. (snicker snicker)

Between gardening, mowing the lawn.. and golfing... its been a nice weekend :)


FINALLY. But not a big storm compared to what we got on January 3 (Toronto didn't get that much).
Good Morning Aussie, Good Evening Orca and everyone else.
Whatever is burning out there in the bush east of me, I'm smoking. Whether I like it or not.
The wife is Complaining about the black feet from soot.
The gas powered water pump packed up.
The cisterns are low.
Anyone need a house guest for 3 months?
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning Aussie, Good Evening Orca and everyone else.
Whatever is burning out there in the bush east of me, I'm smoking. Whether I like it or not.
The wife is Complaining about the black feet from soot.
The gas powered water pump packed up.
The cisterns are low.
Anyone need a house guest for 3 months?


Oh, geez, no wonder RobDaHood temporarily closed his blog -- must have heard you were lookin' (J/K)!
:)

Now where we gonna' go? :(

Matzoh-ball & chicken soup tonight, Pottery.
It's still cold here...they say it hit 50F., but I swear it felt colder...dirty snow on the ground doesn't make one feel very warm towards anything.

Soup's ready, BBL.
Hi Awake. Yeah, I wondered about Hood locking his doors.LOL.
Chicken soup sounds good, but I am full of Grand Daughter's 1st birthday party food.
Cake, ice cream, smoked ribs, beers, and smokey air (from fires all around). That combination of foods will probably give me nightmares come to think of it!
Storm, post 714.
That's scary stuff there! Especially the Atl.
Also that same system giving Dallas more snow is expected to move up the east coast, merge with a Polar Vortex, and give the east coast(Carolina's-Northeast) a another historic snowstorm(just when you thought The Mid-Atlantic would thaw out).

After that, a significant arctic outbreak will be unleashed upon the eastern 2/3 by the weekend! Winter ain't over yet until the fat lady sings!
Quoting StormW:




Wow. Big South Pacific Warm Anomaly Bulge drifting east and south, while global average SSTs are 0.5C above normal! With the Atlantic warm anomaly larger than it was in 2005 at this time of year, I'm blaming global warming.
Are some of you saying this winter season is analogous with the 2004/05 winter seasons? Therefore, expect a similar and active Hurricane season for 2010?
Wow! U.S. leads Canada 2-1 in a wild Olympic hockey game.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow. Big South Pacific Warm Anomaly Bulge drifting east and south, while global average SSTs are 0.5C above normal! With the Atlantic warm anomaly larger than it was in 2005 at this time of year, I'm blaming global warming.


Strong El Ninos such as this one can easily raise global ocean temps by 0.5C...this is quite normal.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are some of you saying this winter season is analogous with the 2004/05 winter seasons? Therefore, expect a similar and active Hurricane season for 2010?


No....the 04-05 winter was quite warm for the U.S. Sometimes there is a correlation between the winters and the hurricane seasons, but not all the time. However, the SST pattern in 2005 is very analogous to this year.

Thanks Levi..so basically...way to early to tell. Just guesses as of now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks Levi..so basically...way to early to tell. Just guesses as of now.


It's a bit early to get specific but it's not all guesses. A dying El Nino plus building heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic = strong possibility of an active season. The big picture is very much leaning towards a dangerous Atlantic year. The models also agree with this logic, forecasting lower-than-normal pressures in the SW Atlantic and a surplus of heat in the Atlantic tropical breeding grounds. This is very much the opposite of last year's conditions, which obviously caused a bust season.
Thank you for your honest synopsis….but I hope it doesn’t pan it. Most of us in my neck of the woods have become complacent when it comes to Hurricanes.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thank you for your honest synopsis….but I hope it doesn’t pan it. Most of us in my neck of the woods have become complacent when it comes to Hurricanes.


Indeed hopefully it is not a bad landfalling year.
Endeavour set to land at 10:16, record the sonic booms!! that should be awesome.
725, Levi.
That's a good response.
My big concern this year is the probable reduction of the Atlantic shear compared to last year (due to Neutral ENSO). If we have SST's that are high already, and likely to increase then I see no reason to take this season lightly.
Kind of worrying actually.
But it's weather. It can change again. For instance, several forecasts around here call for rain on Thursday/Friday. If that happens, I will be surprised, but, it's weather...
Interesting to note too, that the Trade winds have been relatively strong across the Trop Atl., and that would normally tend to cool the SST. Because there are waves and lots of water mixing.
If it stays sunny through May, when the winds begin to drop, the SST could raise more.
Exactly Pottery.…Shear saved us a lot of trouble last year.
Maybe the SAL will save us this year. In the Caribbean Islands anyway. LOL
Blast from the past..Dr. Grey's 2005 Hurricane predictions:
Link
2005 had 28 named storms.
An Incredible year!
May it RIP !
Ive noticed a pattern in the past few years for hurricane seasons
2005: monstrous
2006: bust
2007: average
2008: monstrous
2009: bust
2010: average?
except everyone is saying 16 storms and several major hurricanes but that's what everyone has said before every season
736. JRRP
Quoting pottery:
Maybe the SAL will save us this year. In the Caribbean Islands anyway. LOL

do you think the SAL will be above average?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I hear your going to have snow.. sorry to hear that.. (snicker snicker)

Between gardening, mowing the lawn.. and golfing... its been a nice weekend :)
have fun fish i got somim coming fer yer
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ive noticed a pattern in the past few years for hurricane seasons
2005: monstrous
2006: bust
2007: average
2008: monstrous
2009: bust
2010: average?
except everyone is saying 16 storms and several major hurricanes but that's what everyone has said before every season


I wouldn't call 2007 Average. Everyone seems to forget that there were 2 landfalling Category 5 Hurricanes that Season in the Caribbean.
735, I had not thought of that! Interesting.

736, no way of knowing, I dont think. We will have to see how the rains in the Sahel and east of there pan out. The forecasts for SAL have been pretty bad, as not enough is known about it.
http://firecongress.org/article.php/Story-Phil_Jones_No_Warmin_Since_1995
738, I think he meant average in terms of numbers...
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I wouldn't call 2007 Average. Everyone seems to forget that there were 2 landfalling Category 5 Hurricanes that Season in the Caribbean.

I remember every storm of 2007 but statistically the ACE was below average out of the 14 storms many were extremely brief and weak but because of the cat 5s and 3 retired storms I say it average
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I remember every storm of 2007 but statistically the ACE was below average out of the 14 storms many were extremely brief and weak but because of the cat 5s and 3 retired storms I say it average


I understand what you mean.
Does anyone actually know the prediction for
factors of 2010 I know SSTs are above average, and neutral year, but what about SAL Shear and Steering?
I guess you guys wasn't expecting this to be so low near the north west caribben lol

Quoting all4hurricanes:
Does anyone actually know the prediction for
factors of 2010 I know SSTs are above average, and neutral year, but what about SAL Shear and Steering?
those later things will be decided as we get closer to start as well as the position and strengh of azores high as well
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Does anyone actually know the prediction for
factors of 2010 I know SSTs are above average, and neutral year, but what about SAL Shear and Steering?


According to the ECMWF, Sahel precipitation is forecasted to be near normal to ever so slightly above normal at the start of Hurricane Season. I am not sure at this time what the rainfall anomaly is forecasted to be come August/September.
155

ABPW10 PGTW 212200

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND

/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212200Z-220600ZFEB2010//

REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZFEB2010//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

(1) AT 211800Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 9.6S 157.9W, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,

AMERICAN SAMOA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35

KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 212100) FOR

FURTHER DETAILS.

(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9S

159.7W, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.

2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO

WARNING STATUS.//


TPPS10 PGTW 220019 COR

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 9.0S

D. 157.9W

E. SIX/GOES11

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. COR LINE F

RENALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5 WITH A .60
WRAP. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GATES
Keeper, not a hockey fan?
no don't do the sports thing
Quoting JRRP:

do you think the SAL will be above average?


Precipitation in the current warm anomaly from Africa to the Caribbean will be above average, hence hampering some of the SAL.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those later things will be decided as we get closer to start as well as the position and strengh of azores high as well


That high is dislocated and positioned over the southeastern North Atlantic, leaving the Caribbean to warm rapidly as spring approaches, opening the Caribbean hurricane season by June.
I just saw a skunk outside, in Southern Ontario, in February. Probably not a common sight at this time of year, and I also saw a faint 22-degree colourless halo around the moon.
WTPS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 157.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 157.9W
---
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 157.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS OF 1800Z THREE OUT OF THE FOUR FIXING
AGENCIES IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE ASSESSED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT 35 KNOTS, JUSTIFYING THE ISSUANCE OF
THIS WARNING. A 210829Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE LLCC HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN THE TIME OF THAT
PASS AND NOW GIVEN THE CONTINUED BUILD UP OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LARGELY DIFFLUENT OVER THE
REGION WITH NO ONE WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE, AND IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRANSIT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID TO DEEP LAYER
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND QUICKLY
INTENSIFY IN AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). HOWEVER, AFTER
TAU 72 INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT WITH AN INCREASE IN VWS. OHC WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER AROUND THIS TIME. AS IS TYPICAL OF A FIRST
FORECAST THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LARGER
DEVIATIONS OCCURRING IN THE LATER TAUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND
222100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
210921Z FEB 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
210930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

I'm looking at this Olympics hockey score, but I'm not believing it. Good game, I hope Canada doesn't hold it against us forever. USA 5, Canada 3.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Precipitation in the current warm anomaly from Africa to the Caribbean will be above average, hence hampering some of the SAL.



That high is dislocated and positioned over the southeastern North Atlantic, leaving the Caribbean to warm rapidly as spring approaches, opening the Caribbean hurricane season by June.
ring around the moon rain or snow by noon
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'm looking at this Olympics hockey score, but I'm not believing it. Good game, I hope Canada doesn't hold it against us forever. USA 5, Canada 3.


GO CANADA!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ring around the moon rain or snow by noon


Yup...15 cm of snow expected by Tuesday morning here.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I just saw a skunk outside, in Southern Ontario, in February. Probably not a common sight at this time of year, and I also saw a faint 22-degree colourless halo around the moon.
i've seen plenty of critters other morn at 6 a fox then two skunks next day i seen ground hog or groper and on fri at noon i seen a falcon swoop down under a van with a blue jay in its talons killed and flew away with it
I am rather surprised that we are not under a winter storm watch or warning as many places just downtrack (coined that word) from us in Michigan are under a warning and expected to see up to 8 inches of snow:

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I am rather surprised that we are not under a winter storm watch or warning as many places just downtrack (coined that word) from us in Michigan are under a warning and expected to see up to 8 inches of snow:

maybe after midnight we may see more after the passage then during
Numerous severe storm warnings in Miss and LA. right now and it's this energy that's heading to Florida and south GA tomorrow. Tremendous lightning with these storms as well.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Precipitation in the current warm anomaly from Africa to the Caribbean will be above average, hence hampering some of the SAL.



That high is dislocated and positioned over the southeastern North Atlantic, leaving the Caribbean to warm rapidly as spring approaches, opening the Caribbean hurricane season by June.


That will help a little, but what really matters is the precipitation at the source of the SAL, over western Africa. Right now it looks to me like precipitation will be normal or slightly above normal in the SAL region, which should keep SAL lower than we've seen it the last few years.
Quoting pottery:
Interesting to note too, that the Trade winds have been relatively strong across the Trop Atl., and that would normally tend to cool the SST. Because there are waves and lots of water mixing.
If it stays sunny through May, when the winds begin to drop, the SST could raise more.


I can't figure out why you've been so windy in Trinidad. I must be missing something. Pressures over the north Atlantic have been well below normal all winter, resulting in a weakened Azores high and very weak trade winds over the eastern Atlantic. This is one of the reasons why SSTs are so high west of Africa. But I can't figure out why those trades would increase so much in the eastern Caribbean.

Surface pressures for the last 3 months:

767. flsky
Shuttle down safely!
I guess you guys wasn't expecting this to be so low near the north west caribben lol

Who killed the blog????
Rain in West Palm area is a coming!
000
FXUS64 KFWD 220349 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

.UPDATE...
ZONE PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS
EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS ALONG A
COMANCHE TO PALESTINE LINE WITH ONE INCH OR LESS AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
OF I-20. IN FACT...TONIGHTS NAM RUN HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF...WHICH IS ABOUT
DOUBLE OF THE 18Z RUN.

THE GFS HAS NOT COME IN FOR EVALUATION...BUT THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS
REMAIN VERY BULLISH FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A LARGE CHUCK OF THE
CWA. THE 18Z RUN PAINTED UP TO 6 INCHES ALONG I-20 AND ACROSS
THOSE COUNTIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-20.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010/

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TX THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND REMAIN IN THE 60S UNDER
SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHERE THE
DRYLINE MEETS WITH THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING. AT THIS TIME THIS TRIPLE POINT IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE METROPLEX WHERE A LINE OF WEAK STORMS/RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST THRU DALLAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT A WET AFTERNOON COMMUTE
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX TONIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD...AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS BUILD
OVER NORTH TX AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHEN AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE POTENTIAL WINTER WX EVENT...BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL TX.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD EAST
RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST
ALONG THE TX/MEXICO BORDER. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY START OUT
AS LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER THROUGH PERSISTENT LIFT AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BY 18Z...GFS AND NAM BOTH SPREAD
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTH TX. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED CROSS SECTION THROUGH THE CWA INDICATES STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE H700 TO H550 LAYER. ABOVE THIS FRONTOGENESIS
AXIS IS A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY /EPV/ WHICH GENERALLY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF EITHER
SLANTWISE OR UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS ZONE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE -12 TO -18 DEG C LEVEL...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
ZONE FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS A LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WE ARE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO COME FROM BANDING
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES. BEING MESOSCALE IN NATURE...WE MAY NOT HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES UNTIL 6-12 HRS
BEFORE THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER THAT CAN
COME FROM THESE BANDS. WHILE ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY NOT SEE 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL...THIS ZONE
REPRESENTS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
AREAS THAT SEE SNOW BANDS AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. ONE INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE BANDS. IN GENERAL AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CISCO TO ATHENS LINE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE 4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR GREATER BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TO THE NORTH...IN GENERAL WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY SNOW BANDS
MANAGE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN AND NEAR THE WACO AREA WOULD BE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 1982. STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENT DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE
UPPER LVL SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO AFFECT NORTH TX. THE FIRST
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AND THE
SECOND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW ALL
MODELS POINT TO A LIQUID PRECIPITATION SOLUTION.

CAVANAUGH / HUCKABY
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'm looking at this Olympics hockey score, but I'm not believing it. Good game, I hope Canada doesn't hold it against us forever. USA 5, Canada 3.


I don't mind hurting Canada's feelings in Hockey.....So glad for the US Team.....they really kicked the CAnadian A-s ! HOLD IT AGAINST US! HOW FUNNY! I don't think a true American really cares.......LOVE IT!
What a horrible Accident in Florida Saturday evening! What was these Teens thinking!

3 girls killed by oncoming train in Melbourne
WOW look how warm the sea tempers are out here


i dont re call seeing them that warm even in 2005
the sea temper are off the map
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ive noticed a pattern in the past few years for hurricane seasons
2005: monstrous
2006: bust
2007: average
2008: monstrous
2009: bust
2010: average?
except everyone is saying 16 storms and several major hurricanes but that's what everyone has said before every season


2007 was not anything average. 15 named storms, 2 Category 5 landfalls.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2007 was not anything average. 15 named storms, 2 Category 5 landfalls.

How ever
14 storms 6 hurricanes and 2 hurricanes is about average, and according to the ACE 2007 was below average. 2007 is hard to put a pin on depends on how you look at it.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I guess you guys wasn't expecting this to be so low near the north west caribben lol

wat is it the high???????
is that high pressure responsable for the sea surface temp bein that hot around d african coast givin the fact that it is so close and could that change in d cumming months
?
good morning about 60f early in this new yr i picked an average yr lets hope it is some rain later e cen florida
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I just saw a skunk outside, in Southern Ontario, in February. Probably not a common sight at this time of year, and I also saw a faint 22-degree colourless halo around the moon.


i saw ducks flying north in formation (from nw fla) this morning and last year i did not see that til the end of march.
SE TX weather:

Significant Winter Storm event heading for SE TX.Accumulating snowfall expected Tuesday over portions of SE TX.

Winter Storm Watch issued for the following counties: Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Washington, Montgomery, Walker, Houston, Madison, Trinity, San Jacinto, and Polk.

Discussion:
Cold air advection in progress this morning behind the late Sunday cold front. Cold arctic dome over the central plains will filter southward today while the next upper level storm noted over NV this morning makes the eastward turn and begins it treck toward TX. Stratus deck this morning may break up some this afternoon, before high clouds begin to arrive from the west. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight as moisture and lift increase.

Tuesday:
Strong upper level storm drops toward the Big Bend area with a developing shield of winter precip. Over much of central TX by morning. Forecast soundings show the air mass over the area dry and cold by Tuesday morning. A dry layer in the 900-800mb level will support some room for evaporative cooling of the air column with the onset of rain/snow Tuesday morning over our NW counties first and then spreading SE during the afternoon hours. Meso scale models continue to point toward a fairly unstable layer in the snow growth area around 700mb over the northern portions of SE TX Tuesday afternoon. Past events and studies with such instability (Dallas 2 week ago, and Victoria in Dec 2004) suggest the formation of meso scale banding and potential for very heavy snowfall rates. 700mb front will also be introduced into the mix to add forcing over our northern counties. May see a band of very heavy snow develop from College Station to Huntsville Tuesday afternoon/evening with significant accumulations.

Tuesday night:
Rain/snow mix will spread toward the coast with a change over to all snow across inland SE TX. At this time it appears the rain will mix with snow by mid afternoon toward Harris County and then change to snow after dark Tuesday as far south as US 59. Surface temperatures will fall toward freezing during the early evening hours as far south as I-10 as accumulating snow pack just to the north advects colder surface air southward. The southward extent of accumulation will likely end up over Austin/Waller/Harris/Liberty counties.

Accumulations:
College Station to Trinity northward:
Models are really pegging this area for some significant accumulations. For now will go all snow Tuesday/Tuesday night with accumulations of 2-4 inches and isolated locations of 6 %u201D possible.

Austin to Brenham to Conroe to Coldspring northward:
Rain/snow mix will begin Tuesday morning and change to all snow Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations of 2-3%u201D is likely with isolated totals of 3-5%u201D possible.

Columbus to Downtown Houston to Liberty northward:
Rain will start the event changing to a rain/snow mix during the mid afternoon and all snow after dark. Accumulations of generally less than 1 inch is likely.

Columbus to Downtown Houston to Liberty southward:
Rain will start the event changing to rain/snow after dark Tuesday and possibly all snow before ending late Tuesday. Most of what falls in this region will melt on contact as surface temperatures struggle to get to freezing.

Impacts:
Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the 32-35 degree range for much of the day Tuesday as the snow falls which indicates a lot will melt on impact, except where heavy snow bands develop. Temperatures will drop Tuesday evening to or below freezing along and N of I-10 where melted snow on bridges and overpasses may begin to freeze. Additionally as surface temperatures fall toward/below freezing Tuesday evening snowfall will begin to accumulate faster mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Could see some icing/glazing of bridges and overpasses Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning over the northern of the area.

While confidence is growing in this event, the amount of accumulation and where the rain/snow line ends up remains in some question. Forecasting meso banding location is extremely difficult, but very high impact and much of this will not be known until the event is underway.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I don't think a true American really cares.......

I beg your pardon?



GO TERPS!
Good Morning Folks.....Beautiful weekend in North Florida and lots of moisture out there this morning in the same parts as the weak front comes through......Another few weeks of cool downs and Spring will be here before you know it (along with some severe weather threats in March and April)....
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY? ENJOY THE CALM BEFORE STORM. A COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND HAS CLEARED OUT THE STUBBORN SEA
FOG PLAGUING THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID DAY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE S/WV APPROACHES...IT WILL
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS FRONT. AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN
WILL ENSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND 900 MB
SO ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL...SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. ALL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 0 C NORTH OF A
CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL START IN THE
MORNING BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FOR TUESDAY.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
POLICIES DICTATE THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN 2 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE.
THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM RATHER CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD SET UP FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN DFW A FEW WEEKS AGO. THIS WOULD BUMP
SNOW TOTALS UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. WHERE DOES
THE RAIN SNOW LINE SET UP? AM CONCERNED THAT MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES MAY GET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN HOUSTON AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. COULD EVEN GET A RAIN SNOW MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES CONFLUENT BY 09Z WEDNESDAY AND
THE PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.

A COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS ON WED/THU WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
X-SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE GFS
HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL AS OF LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRINGS A 120 KNOT SPEED MAX SOUTHWARD BUT THE GFS INDUCES SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS FAVORS THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BECAUSE THE OF THE RECENT
SUCCESS OF THE GFS. ANOTHER POTENT STORM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH YET MORE RAIN. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE SEA FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE MARINE AREAS. CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

40
our nws in bro mention snow is possible here late tues night but will not put in forecast will watch though
Quoting TampaSpin:
What a horrible Accident in Florida Saturday evening! What was these Teens thinking!

3 girls killed by oncoming train in Melbourne
How awful. I attend school at Florida Tech about 2 miles from there and I just heard about it now. I often sit -under- the bridge to watch the trains pass over.
DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY?


LOL
Quoting TampaTom:


GO TERPS!

Some of these sculptures are really good. I just found a page of them; evidently they're located all over the U.Md. campus(es) and other appropriate places.

Here's one of the Chesapeake Bay (sort of blog related):


Thanks for All the Fish—Artist: Kat Cappillino
Sponsor: Cisco
Location: Baltimore, Maryland—National Aquarium


"Fear the Turtle Sculpture Project"
796. unf97
Good morning everyone!

I hope everyone had a great weekend. I took a peek at the 7 day model runs for GFS and the ECWWF this morning. If these runs verify over the course of this week, old man winter will definitely be roaring in like a lion across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. What is particularly striking with both of these model runs is a very potent shortwave which could develop across the Deep South by late this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week. The GFS and ECMWF are both indicating the potential of a major winter storm across the Deep South again, similar to the February 11-12 snowstorm. It is still early and things definitely can change of course with the model runs. However, this is certainly sonething which bears careful watching over the next several days.

One thing looks definite however, and that is a significantly colder pattern will be back for the Eastern CONUS over the next 10-12 days. It appears that the NAO will bring another polar air mass during this period, although hopefully not of the brutal nature we saw back in the first two weeks of January. But, nonetheless, for late winter, temperatures are going to be well below normal.

Have a great day everyone.
Bone chilling cold for next 2 weeks
Quoting unf97:
Good morning everyone!

I hope everyone had a great weekend. I took a peek at the 7 day model runs for GFS and the ECWWF this morning. If these runs verify over the course of this week, old man winter will definitely be roaring in like a lion across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. What is particularly striking with both of these model runs is a very potent shortwave which could develop across the Deep South by late this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week. The GFS and ECMWF are both indicating the potential of a major winter storm across the Deep South again, similar to the February 11-12 snowstorm. It is still early and things definitely can change of course with the model runs. However, this is certainly sonething which bears careful watching over the next several days.

One thing looks definite however, and that is a significantly colder pattern will be back for the Eastern CONUS over the next 10-12 days. It appears that the NAO will bring another polar air mass during this period, although hopefully not of the brutal nature we saw back in the first two weeks of January. But, nonetheless, for late winter, temperatures are going to be well below normal.

Have a great day everyone.

Hey I say bring it on man, I love the cold and hate the hot.
12Z GFS RUN, Surface Map for 30 hrs 2/23/10 at Noon, pushed the snow axis a little further North, just South of DFW, TX:

GM all,very active week ahead,depending on where you live,the country will see a little bit of everything over at least the next couple of weeks. As long as El nino continues and the -NAO continues,this is going to be an active southerly jet and cold air periodically plunging down from Canada. Oh when,Oh when will spring make an appearance.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain early in the evening...then a 40 percent chance of snow in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s inland...in the upper 30s coast. North winds 10 to 20 mph

ALL THIS SOUTH OF HOUSTON...
803. unf97
NEwxguy,

It looks as if the NAO is back in effect again for sure if the models verify. Spring is on hold for a while longer folks. That southern stream shortwave for next week really looks interesting for the Deep South if the models pan out.
Can anyone post or give me a link to where I can see what the SST was like this time in 2005?
Thanks!
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM all,very active week ahead,depending on where you live,the country will see a little bit of everything over at least the next couple of weeks. As long as El nino continues and the -NAO continues,this is going to be an active southerly jet and cold air periodically plunging down from Canada. Oh when,Oh when will spring make an appearance.


March, especially the first half of the month, will probably be nasty, but during latter march and April I think spring will make an appearance. The analogue years for this winter all have things reverse from a cold February and March to a warm April and May over the eastern U.S.
Quoting benirica:
Can anyone post or give me a link to where I can see what the SST was like this time in 2005?
Thanks!


February 22, 2005:



February 22, 2010:



Quoting Bordonaro:
12Z GFS RUN, Surface Map for 30 hrs 2/23/10 at Noon, pushed the snow axis a little further North, just South of DFW, TX:


That's interesting, especially when coupled with this:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221616
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECTING THIS TO HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ERODING FROM THE COAST
NORTH AND FROM THE WEST. HAVE PARED BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER
A COOL START IN THE 44-48 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 53-55
NORTH AND 56-62 SOUTH AND THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS
ENDING 21Z AND LATER OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.

AS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES
TO THAT PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE NAM 06Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE
TRENDED 10-40 MILES FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP/SNOW.
WILL BE WAITING FOR THE GFS BEFORE ANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
Quoting 1900hurricane:IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA


Hi all. Thought I'd share this.

Check this out. As I've said many times, VC's will invest if there is money to be made. The whole "Big Oil stops it" is pure fallacy. They have zero power over entrepreneurs. No govt necessary.

Also notice how long we've been trying. Again, it is not for lack of trying. It is lack of practical applicability.

If this really works, it will be revolutionary. Watch the whole thing. Already installed at some companies, including FedEx.

Link

I wouldn't mind a few flakes of snow down here South of Houston, TX.
It was amazing to watch the space shuttle coming down last night here in Belize we could see the fire trail from horizon to horizon .
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!!
Rain continues to fall in western and central Cuba. From 2:00 am persistent rain, strong at times affect Havana. More rain is expected on Wednesday when a new cold front arrives.