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January 2009: 7th warmest January on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on February 23, 2009

Earth recorded its 7th warmest January on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The most notable extreme temperatures were recorded in southern Australia January 28-31, when the hottest weather since 1939 occurred. January 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is unknown, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A sensor error in January caused underestimation of the ice coverage during the month, and a correction needs to be applied to the data. At worst, January 2009 had the 6th lowest Arctic ice extent on record. The record January low was set in 2006. The sensor error does not affect months prior to January, and does not affect the records lows observed in September 2008 and 2007.

A dry January with average temperatures for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., January temperatures were near average. It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was very dry, ranking as the 5th driest January on record. Only ten (preliminary) tornado reports were logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in January, making it the quietest January for tornadoes since 2004, when only three tornadoes were recorded. U.S. records set in January 2009 (courtesy of http://extremeweatherguide.com/updates.asp):

Waterloo, IA: All-time coldest temperature record tied on 1/16, -34°F
Maine: All-time coldest temperature -50°F at Big Black River

At the end of January, 21% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is an increase from the 19% figure at the end of December.


Figure 1. Forecast El Niño/La Niña conditions for a number of computer models. El Niño conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes above 0.5°C (upper red line). La Niña conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes below -0.5°C (lower red line). Nearly all of the computer models are forecasting neutral conditions during the 2009 hurricane season (August-September-October, ASO). Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

La Niña conditions continue
La Niña conditions continued in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in January, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Advisory. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. In addition, the atmospheric response typically associated with a La Niña must be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures were 1.0°C below average in the Niña 3.4 region during January, an increase from the -0.73°C anomaly observed in December. However, it appears that La Niña has peaked, as ocean temperatures in the Niña 3.4 region have warmed since late January. Many El Niño forecast models predict a continuation of La Niña conditions through May of 2009. Despite the unusually late start to this La Niña, expected impacts during Spring 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new blog Jeff
Good morning all. Interesting commentary from Dr. Masters. For those of you more enlightened than I, does this mean more tropical activity or less tropical activity? With the southeast and southwest projected to be drier than usual, it would seem this means not a lot of tropical air surging up that way.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning all. Interesting commentary from Dr. Masters. For those of you more enlightened than I, does this mean more tropical activity or less tropical activity? With the southeast and southwest projected to be drier than usual, it would seem this means not a lot of tropical air surging up that way.


More tropical activity in the Atlantic that means. If its going to be a Neutral year like the models predict.
So we will have more storms to follow and more destruction to prepare for and more learning to do.
Thanks - but my real reaction is AAAARRRRGGGGHHH!
Scary!
I find it ironic that the hottest January on record included the coldest January Seattle has had in years.

I do appreciate your explanations, it all makes more sense now (maybe not to those people in Maine!)
good day to all. has anyone with records of previous neutral la nina years, to compare with what is forecast for 2009? this will give some insight as to what to expect this hurricane season
Thanks,Dr. M., wish some of that warmth had made it up to the northeast, we were below normal pretty much all month.
All I know is here in Michigan it's been one of the coldest winters in decades. Pretty much since mid November it's barely gotten above freezing other then a couple thaws. Back down to near zero again tonight. We're all wondering where this great global warming is? ;)
Tropic...I'm glad you asked that...it's exactly what I was wondering...
11. P451
It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record

So, in other words, it was slightly below average given 114 years of records. 53rd Coolest.

It was particularly cooler than normal where I live in New Jersey. Definitely dry though never got a decent storm.
TO Bonscott
Michigan had it's 9th coldest January on record.


California, had a warmer than normal January, but I believe Febuary will be cooler, in January California was dry, and caused a drought situation, but Febuary is a lot different, storm after storm is hitting California, causing the daily temps to stay below normal. So average the two months temps and see if it is normal. My bets that it will be.
To go along with the temps, the gloom and doom folks are crying about the severe drought in northern California, this week and the last two weeks, several storms came through the northern parts of the state. Flooding predicted for northern California by weeks end.
My point is weather is on cycles, and will continue to be this way until the end of time.
Just the way it is folks.
"It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record"

Sorry, but to me thats just saying it was the 55th Coolest January in 114-year Record.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


More tropical activity in the Atlantic that means. If its going to be a Neutral year like the models predict.


2005 was neutral too...
weather is like a box a chocolates....
Last year January was above normal in the northeast,this year below,its all a matter of where the jet streams sets up from season to season.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
California, had a warmer than normal January, but I believe Febuary will be cooler, in January California was dry, and caused a drought situation, but Febuary is a lot different, storm after storm is hitting California, causing the daily temps to stay below normal. So average the two months temps and see if it is normal. My bets that it will be.
To go along with the temps, the gloom and doom folks are crying about the severe drought in northern California, this week and the last two weeks, several storms came through the northern parts of the state. Flooding predicted for northern California by weeks end.
My point is weather is on cycles, and will continue to be this way until the end of time.
Just the way it is folks.


I love how they say Southern California and Arizona is in a severe Drought.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


2005 was neutral too...


Basically, the same as last year.

Though remember kids: As important ENSO can be, it doesn't determine it all... 2004 was El Nino, but had more big hits than 2007 which was La Nina... many different cycles and things in effect.
FWIW, 2009 forecast is closer to 2006 than 2005 (based on model forecast of Jan):



Would much rather have (aside from the fun of tracking storms) 2006 vs. 2005:



It only takes one...
Not to worry folks, weather from the beginning of time has followed cycles and as before we have begun another cool down to which I hope and pray will educate the naysayers who's very life it seems depends on them spreading undue fear over global warming. God who created this wonderful planet has everything under control as he see's fit and needs no help from man to operate the thermostat. No one denies we should do our part to care for earth but lets do so with a little sense applied and not forcing a theory down everyone's throat.
Quoting FLDART1:
It only takes one...


Alot of people forget that even I do sometimes but that is the truth.
Agreed, but 2006 had only 10 storms, three US landfalls and only one with death/damage (5 and 500mil)...

Link

As cotillion points out, much more to it than ENSO. While it would be a boring season, I'd take not having to put up shutters. ;)
Now, if only that rain to my E would drift a little W and give me a nice soaking... could use it.

Overcast, but no rain. :(
None of us really know what this season has in store for us. Every year has it's own signature and we will just have to wait and see. But as I always say nothing would surprise me lol. Besides it's still a little bit to early.
Yep... but one can hope.

And, getting closer than you think...

Where's the countdown CyberTeddy?
ya very true only like 96 days or something like that
Quoting hahaguy:
ya very true only like 96 days or something like that


Only 49 more school days left. =]
"Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the sixth lowest on record for the month of January, 8% below the mean..."

Dr. Masters, why did you report northern and not the southern? I'll cover it for you...the graph is right next to the northern. Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the fifth HIGHEST on record for January, 15% ABOVE the mean.

Not mentioning southern ice is sort of like someone just presenting the US temperatures and not the world. I like the non-biased nature of most of Dr. Masters' blogs, but let's not end it now!
Mauritius Meteorological Services

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HINA (09-20082009)
19.5ºS 77.8ºE - 40 knots 990 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning #11
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hina (990 hPa) located at 19.5S 77.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
90 NM radius of the center in the southern semi-circle

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
240 NM radius of the center in the southeastern quadrant, extending up to 320 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.5S 76.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 21.4S 73.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.0S 70.1E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale
72 HRS: 27.7S 68.0E - 20 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
===========================
The system keeps on weakening and winds has been calibrated according to the last QUIKSCAT Pass. Strong uncertainity exists with position based on last NW imagery (SSMIS of 12:48z) and near infrared imagery. Equatorward low level inflow will decrease progressively but the trade flow is still good. Upper levels wind shear should remain persistent although polewards divergence remains good. Within a more low level steering flow, the system track is expected to recurve west-southwest linked to the ridge in the southeast and the south.
Holy Crap....

Quoting Seastep:
Yep... but one can hope.

And, getting closer than you think...

Where's the countdown CyberTeddy?


Time until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)
97 days
2332 hours
139977 minutes
8398648 seconds

Or:

Alternative version

It is 97 days, 4 hours, 53 minutes and 1 second until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)...

My blog has some dates to remember as we go through the 'hurricane pre-season'...

(Yes I know I'm not Cybr, but I'm sure he won't mind filling in the duties.. he stole 'em off 'Rolex Ike' after all ;))
strong northeaster wonder if we are going to get a more? happy weather
Thanks cot. Can you tell I'm ready?

Almost took my generator out to test it this weekend.

Slow news day today, to boot.

Even went through an "analysis" going through the usual links, charts, etc. on something as a dry run... a 1008mb low that was down by panama.

I know, I know... i'm pathetic. :)
Quoting JeffMasters

La Nia conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Nio 3.4 region goes below -0.5C (lower red line). Nearly all of the computer models are forecasting neutral conditions during the 2009 hurricane season (August-September-October, ASO).

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current


Neat stuff, Orca. 50 degrees, huh? T-shirt weather for you, no? ;)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Holy Crap....



Oh no!!! my 401,,,,,,no ,,,,,, my 301, no,,,,,,my 201k took another hit again.
Quoting chilliam:
"Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the sixth lowest on record for the month of January, 8% below the mean..."

Dr. Masters, why did you report northern and not the southern? I'll cover it for you...the graph is right next to the northern. Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the fifth HIGHEST on record for January, 15% ABOVE the mean.

Not mentioning southern ice is sort of like someone just presenting the US temperatures and not the world. I like the non-biased nature of most of Dr. Masters' blogs, but let's not end it now!


Not to mention it is SUMMER in the Southern Hemisphere.
It looks like the DOW is going down the...



well you get the picture...
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.
Quoting Ossqss:
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.


it looks like a motorola krzr
Quoting Ossqss:
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.


I found a better one...
Link

Instructional illustration as needed --- who thinks up this stuff,, let alone think we need it.
Wow the Dow Jones is getting closer.. and closer to that 7,000 mark.

Not good.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Wow the Dow Jones is getting closer.. and closer to that 7,000 mark.

Not good.


Country and World is in serious finiancial trouble......and its going to get a lot worst. Just the reality!
A man from Greater Manchester has spoken about being rescued near the Bermuda Triangle after being lost at sea for 40 days.

Stuart Armstrong, 51, from Stockport and his partner Andrea Davison, 48, from Newcastle, got into difficulty when their yacht's rudder broke.

The couple had set off from the Cape Verde Islands and were 1,200 miles from their destination in Antigua...

Link

Now if only Cape Verde hurricanes could do that too... and not be recovered...
Redoudt is puffing some.......

Quoting TampaSpin:


Country and World is in serious finiancial trouble......and its going to get a lot worst. Just the reality!


Alot of people on the WSJ blog predict 6500 down to 5000

O_o
Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Master acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...

I am one of those people who won't open their 401k statements. Last time I looked...down $20,000..arggggggg
wow..I thought we were just about down with cold fronts passing thru so. fla....10-day forecast has us in the 40's next Monday thru Thursday.
Quoting IceEmQuick:
Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Master acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...



He already did. ;)

Check a couple blogs back.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am one of those people who won't open their 401k statements. Last time I looked...down $20,000..arggggggg


Doesn't matter what it is now... only what it is when you retire....

If you're close? Yep, ouch!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
wow..I thought we were just about down with cold fronts passing thru so. fla....10-day forecast has us in the 40's next Monday thru Thursday.


Its a 10 day forcast odds are it will change.

Couple of weak fronts.
Tampaspin with all the doom and gloom coming out of Washington and the media, no wonder the market is doing lower everyday.

Former president Clinton told President Obama, to start speaking postive, and not so negative.
The stock market if fragile, any bad news coming from the whitehouse will reflect how the market reacts, remember when Greenspan was the Fed chairman, and he spoke, the market was like a rollercoaster with his comments, Obama please take notes my 401 depends on it.
Very true...they usually never pan out towards the end of the forecast period.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Tampaspin with all the doom and gloom coming out of Washington and the media, no wonder the market is doing lower everyday.

Former president Clinton told President Obama, to start speaking postive, and not so negative.
The stock market if fragile, any bad news coming from the whitehouse will reflect how the market reacts, remember when Greenspan was the Fed chairman, and he spoke, the market was like a rollercoaster with his comments, Obama please take notes my 401 depends on it.


Troubled times..for sure! I tried telling everyone that a Democratic lead Congress and President would not be good for WallStreet and I got Hammered on this Blog in November as I said the Stockmarket would tumble. And many said the Market would go up the second Obama took office.
Does not matter what party you are, Our Government just keeps railroading the People. This stimulus Package was a Joke and obviously WallStreet thinks so also. Whats the answer now will only be TIME WILL CURE ITS SELF. And Painfull it may become for MANY! Yes, we need to stay positive but, what is the reality also!
What was the la nina/ el nino situation in May of 2007? Just how much effect does this have on tornado season?
Quoting IceEmQuick:

Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Master acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...


Quoting Seastep:

He already did. ;)

Check a couple blogs back.



***************

Oh really?

Could you point us to it?

Quoting GBlet:
What was the la nina/ el nino situation in May of 2007? Just how much effect does this have on tornado season?


2007 was a La Nina year
haha, thank you. So if I am right La Nina ramps up tornado season correct?
Quoting GBlet:
haha, thank you. So if I am right La Nina ramps up tornado season correct?


During La Nina the severe weather tends to be farther north
Jeff Masters has not posted the latest model forecast of ENSO from this month from Columbia University's IRI; the models that do cross the threshold for El Nino are a little rapid with the warming over the coming months; nevertheless, it will be interesting to monitor the Nino 3.4 region.

Little Puff of Smoke

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
haha, with the action north, it puts me in it. Greensburg, ks is 50ishs mile to the southwest and Chapman, ks to my northeast. Odds are beginning to stack against us here.
The lack of decent winter weather is also a concern heading into spring. Gotta get busy soon painting the bullseye.
70. N3EG
So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted, or at least a little less hyped? 10 years of normal temperatures? Record highs and lows being equal? Ice pack rebuilding to 1970 levels? Al Gore's retirement? A visit from Klaatu?
Quoting N3EG:
So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted, or at least a little less hyped? 10 years of normal temperatures? Record highs and lows being equal? Ice pack rebuilding to 1970 levels? Al Gore's retirement? A visit from Klaatu?


Probably at least 100 years of global cooling with 6-7 days on average per week of record global Temperature Lows......
Quoting N3EG:
So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted, or at least a little less hyped? 10 years of normal temperatures? Record highs and lows being equal? Ice pack rebuilding to 1970 levels? Al Gore's retirement? A visit from Klaatu?


I'd say the next 5-10 years. The IPCC models really get steep (basis for alarm) and unless temps are significantly higher, it will be nearly impossible to catch up to the forecast.
See this graph... if I remember off the top of my head, by 2020, the models are at the top of that scale and only get steeper... even if temperatures rise some, still going to be improbable for them to catch up.

61. calusakat

I stand corrected... I thought he had, but must have just been a blogger... and it certainly wasn't from the perspective of "acknowledgement" but it was discussed.

Don't think you've read my posts on the subject calusakat... I've read yours and know where you stand...

Just read what I've said tonight and you'll get a hint.

Know folks before you attack. ;)
Glad to see Louisiana Gov. Jendal not going to take the unemployment increase from the stimulus pacakage. Hooryay! Things are better in the state than the media is reporting and the state has recovered from Katrina. Why is our governor Crist taking all the money???
Quoting Drakoen:
Jeff Masters has not posted the latest model forecast of ENSO from this month from Columbia University's IRI; the models that do cross the threshold for El Nino are a little rapid with the warming over the coming months; nevertheless, it will be interesting to monitor the Nino 3.4 region.


It appears that the season will be neutral, since the model consensus is split. However, it is too early to tell. It is best to remain conservative for the time being.

And sorry guys, I can't upload a video today...too much homework.

This series will likely have 5 videos at least

The next video will cover the basics of baroclinic zones. The evaluation will be deeper on the next one.
Cottillion....the article says their boat was 13 feet....that can't be right....must be 31 feet....interesting, though.....
Sorry to bring this up but wasn't 05 neutral
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Glad to see Louisiana Gov. Jendal not going to take the unemployment increase from the stimulus pacakage. Hooryay! Things are better in the state than the media is reporting and the state has recovered from Katrina. Why is our governor Crist taking all the money???


When the feds say that the state has to pass laws for the permanent increase in unemployment benefits to get the temporary money, it makes me wonder why we have state legislatures at all. We could just have our beloved US congress pass all of our laws since that is what they really want to do...until we really need something done.

I think the words "state governments must pass law" have no place in US congresses bills. Frankly, that should be a law.

Alternatively, couldn't we save some serious money if we did away with the state legislatures?
77. presslord "...the article says their boat was 13 feet....that can't be right..."

13metres, a bit under 43feet

70. N3EG "So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted..."

A 50% increase in 2008's maximum Arctic winter ice thickness would still be considerably thinner than the numbers derived from direct sonar measurements made by USNavy submarines back in the early 1970s.
Perhaps this explains the 8% below mean (1979-2000) sea ice coverage observed in Jan.:


Arctic Sea Ice Underestimated for Weeks Due to Faulty Sensor
Email | Print | A A A

By Alex Morales

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- A glitch in satellite sensors caused scientists to underestimate the extent of Arctic sea ice by 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles), a California- size area, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.

The error, due to a problem called “sensor drift,” began in early January and caused a slowly growing underestimation of sea ice extent until mid-February. That’s when “puzzled readers” alerted the NSIDC about data showing ice-covered areas as stretches of open ocean, the Boulder, Colorado-based group said on its Web site.

“Sensor drift, although infrequent, does occasionally occur and it is one of the things that we account for during quality- control measures prior to archiving the data,” the center said. “Although we believe that data prior to early January are reliable, we will conduct a full quality check.’’

The extent of Arctic sea ice is seen as a key measure of how rising temperatures are affecting the Earth. The cap retreated in 2007 to its lowest extent ever and last year posted its second- lowest annual minimum at the end of the yearly melt season. The recent error doesn’t change findings that Arctic ice is retreating, the NSIDC said.

The center said real-time data on sea ice is always less reliable than archived numbers because full checks haven’t yet been carried out. Historical data is checked across other sources, it said.

The NSIDC uses Department of Defense satellites to obtain its Arctic sea ice data rather than more accurate National Aeronautics and Space Administration equipment. That’s because the defense satellites have a longer period of historical data, enabling scientists to draw conclusions about long-term ice melt, the center said.

“There is a balance between being as accurate as possible at any given moment and being as consistent as possible through long time-periods,” NSIDC said. “Our main scientific focus is on the long-term changes in Arctic sea ice.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 20, 2009 08:15 EST
Quoting aspectre:
13metres, a bit under 43feet

N3EG "So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted..."

A 50%increase in Arctic winter ice thickness would still be considerably thinner than those derived from direct sonar measurements made by USNavy submarines back in the '70s.


We'll see, but interesting that the focus has shifted.... it was AGW and the IPCC models that were the basis for the alarm... it'll come back, imo. And, really don't want it to come back too much, if at all (seems A-OK right now) because when it starts expanding... THAT will be troublesome. Exponentially more so than warming.



Modified to correct scale (can't stand that).

Modified again for more acurate scale -.8 to .8
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Sorry to bring this up but wasn't 05 neutral


yes it was
Knock that 2005 crap off, now! ;)

If you compare apples to apples, forecast at the time to forecast, much more comparable to 2006.

See my earlier post.
Skyepony and AtmoAggie among others discussed the sensor malfunction a couple of blogs back. Here's a link.
86. HTV
Quoting TampaSpin:


Troubled times..for sure! I tried telling everyone that a Democratic lead Congress and President would not be good for WallStreet and I got Hammered on this Blog in November as I said the Stockmarket would tumble. And many said the Market would go up the second Obama took office.
Does not matter what party you are, Our Government just keeps railroading the People. This stimulus Package was a Joke and obviously WallStreet thinks so also. Whats the answer now will only be TIME WILL CURE ITS SELF. And Painfull it may become for MANY! Yes, we need to stay positive but, what is the reality also!

We'll need tax cuts for businesses and the working person to pay for this latest "Stimulus" package. Ironic as heck.
Not on a soapbox, just another voice in the crowd.
I was sure I read that as "feet"....I'm gettin' old....
88. P451
OFF-TOPIC. What is my local weather service so worried about? I know some models still insist on developing major winter storms for our region, it's gone on all year, and never come to fruition, but I've never seen this kind of outlook.

----
(central NJ)


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE WE MOVE
BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY, PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE RAIN, ALTHOUGH IF OUR THURSDAY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
UNDERDONE, THEN P-TYPE IN THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM FRONT
COULD CONCEIVABLY CAUSE US HEADACHES EARLY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THE ECMWF SLOWS IT AND MAKES IT ACTIVE
IN OUR AREA WELL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS AS
ANOMALOUS AS IT IS OMINOUS.
THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH
THROUGH TO PUT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CHARGE THROUGH
MONDAY. WE`RE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AND FORECASTING THE LATTER.
THAT SOLUTION DOES HAVE THE SUPPORT OF TELECONNECTIONS AND
ENSEMBLES, AND WE MUST CONFESS THAT IT IS THE SOLUTION WE`RE HOPING
IS CORRECT.


TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN FALL BACK.

--------

????
82. Seastep "We'll see..." [Arctic ice thickness]"...it'll come back, imo. And, really don't want it to come back too much...THAT will be troublesome. Exponentially more so than warming."

That "13metres/~43feet" was in reference to presslord's #77 question concerning yacht size (now linked in #80). But other responses intervened before my posting, so I edited a bit.

Yeah, it'd be "Run for the beaches. The glaciers are coming. The glaciers are coming..." if 2009's Arctic winter sea ice regained all of the thickness lost in the 30years before 2000.
Thing is, snow in DC is translating into mud in Moscow. Couldn't even do any decent herring fishing in Archangel cuz the ice was too thin for snowmobiles.

70. N3EG "So what is the "official" requirement before man-made GW could be discounted..."

When it becomes apparent that GlacierNationalPark will still be properly named in 2030.

89 aspectre

I was referring to this:

A 50% increase in 2008's maximum Arctic winter ice thickness would still be considerably thinner than the numbers derived from direct sonar measurements made by USNavy submarines back in the early 1970s.

Need to work on that editing. ;)
Getting off now. Goodnight all.

Will leave you with a thought, though.

If so much ice has been lost since 1970s (not disputing, but reserve the right after looking closer. ;) ), again, doesn't seem too bad right now.

And, wouldn't that mean more precipitable water if drought is a concern due to warming?

Just thinking out loud. Gotta get some shuteye.

Goodnight.
Quoting hahaguy:


yes it was
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Sorry to bring this up but wasn't 05 neutral
05 was a season like all other seasons that follow with its own outcome and just as the season which lays ahead will be unique in its own way
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
05 was a season like all other seasons that follow with its own outcome and just as the season which lays ahead will be unique in its own way


ya it's even hard to come up with a word to describe it
Yeah, 05 was neutral.

Bad news: A comparable season has and will happen again.

Good news: Not for another 50 years, if we take into account the previous times an out of the ordinary season took place (1887 and 1933.)
Quoting presslord:
I was sure I read that as "feet"....I'm gettin' old....


Yup.. few more days and your "F I F T Y"
Quoting atmoaggie:


I think the words "state governments must pass law" have no place in US congresses bills. Frankly, that should be a law.


There was a war fought over that. Your side lost.
Quoting presslord:
I was sure I read that as "feet"....I'm gettin' old....


Heh, we're weird here. Still using imperial and metric in some sort of hybrid. Probably defeats the object.

Metres and miles for most things; nobody uses km here, and the only thing feet is used on a regularly basis is on height. 'I'm 1.79 metres!' just never sounds right...
78. all4hurricanes 2:24 AM GMT on February 24, 2009
Sorry to bring this up but wasn't 05 neutra



yup



and oh now may be 09 will be a other 05
46. HadesGodWyvern 9:48 PM GMT on February 23, 2009
Wow the Dow Jones is getting closer.. and closer to that 7,000 mark.

Not good



but its all so fun too watch too see how low it gos cant wait too see what they do on tusday ok am shuting up now
I do doubt this will be another 05 but remember it only takes one storm, the thing about recent years is that it's been more than one storm that is really destructive
Mardi Gras Day arrives clear and chilly in NOLA. Link


50 in SWFL - parched, dry and crunchy fields and grass. Myakka river is very, very low..... water holes in the pastures down more then half. We're needing rain here.
HAPPY MARDI GRAS EVERYONE!!

today the good times WILL roll on the Gulf Coast
It may be warm in Australia but my heat bill was the highest one I have ever had in January and in watching the temps on this web site i9t seems that most of the USA was colder than normal.
Quoting surfmom:
50 in SWFL - parched, dry and crunchy fields and grass. Myakka river is very, very low..... water holes in the pastures down more then half. We're needing rain here.


Yeah surfmom, it is bad on the east side as well. Everything is brown here from those two cold snaps and lack of rain.
Mardi Gras Day arrives clear and chilly in NOLA.

Happy Mardi Gras, Pat, all.

We didn't make it to the southshore for Endymion. No baby sitter. Thanks for the offer, anyway.
Record summer rain drenches Townsville
Tuesday February 24, 2009

Townsville in north Queensland has recorded its wettest summer on record, with 1,725 millimetres of rain falling during the December, January and February period.

The previous record was set in 1952 with 1,701mm.

It is still raining over much of the north and forecaster Doug Fraser expects more records to tumble before the wet season ends.

"We're very close to setting the all-time February rainfall record as well which was 904mm - we're up to 890 now - so only another 14mm or so to break that February record," he said.

- ABC
Happy Mardi Gras, Pat, all.

We didn't make it to the southshore for Endymion. No baby sitter. Thanks for the offer, anyway.


Here's a lil peek back at Saturday Atmo..

Krewe of Endymion
The Superkrewe Endymion Rolls on Saturday
Uploaded by mdemocke on 02/21/09 Link

You can watch Mardi Gras roll Past the Cam here on St. Charles Ave,..and on Bourbon St. too,..

Parade Cam,..LIVE! Link

Bourbon Street CAM Link
Good morning all :)

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
I know this is not weather related but, the Asian Markets got hammered big time over nite.

Link
Nikkei 225 Japan 7,268.56 –107.60 –1.46%

Hang Seng Hong Kong 12,798.52 –376.58 –2.86%

Shanghai Composite China 2,200.65 –105.12 –4.56%
Satellite to Study Global-Warming Gases Lost in Space (Update2)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nikkei 225 Japan 7,268.56 –107.60 –1.46%

Hang Seng Hong Kong 12,798.52 –376.58 –2.86%

Shanghai Composite China 2,200.65 –105.12 –4.56%


Starting tomorrow things will clear up a bit. The stress test for the top 20 banks will be implemented and we will see their true health. The two big boyz are teetering and almost went under last Friday. We may see the gov owning 40% of Citi by the end of the week. My $13 of the stimulus is not going to make a big difference in the big picture and I really dont want to pay for my greedy neighbors mortgage, but we will have to.
Quoting Ossqss:


Starting tomorrow things will clear up a bit. The stress test for the top 20 banks will be implemented and we will see their true health. The two big boyz are teetering and almost went under last Friday. We may see the gov owning 40% of Citi by the end of the week. My $13 of the stimulus is not going to make a big difference in the big picture and I really dont want to pay for my greedy neighbors mortgage, but we will have to.


By the end of this trading week on Friday at close, It will either be doom and gloom or Bright sunny skies ahead. I hope the later prevails.
Quoting TampaSpin:


By the end of this trading week on Friday at close, It will either be doom and gloom or Bright sunny skies ahead. I hope the later prevails.


The only sunshine we could see would be through the eye of the storm, unfortunately. I am hopeful we can stop the slide and stabilize a bit to avoid entering the DOW 6k zone. My customer base consists of bank "C" level folks. They are very scared. Me too, but all things will come to pass eventually.
Quoting IceEmQuick:
Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Masters acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...



Thanks, I didn't read the NSIDC page carefully enough when I posted yesterday. I've changed the blog to read: "January 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is unknown, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A sensor error in January caused underestimation of the ice coverage during the month, and a correction needs to be applied to the data. At worst, January 2009 had the 6th lowest Arctic ice extent on record. The record January low was set in 2006."

The sensor error does not affect months prior to January, and does not affect the records lows observed in September 2008 and 2007.

In response to criticism that I don't talk about Antarctic sea ice coverage: The Antarctic is healthy, and not worth drawing a great deal of attention to. We care a lot more about Arctic sea ice, since it is in danger of disappearing completely by 2030. A healthy Antarctic is great, but it the Arctic is not healthy. The two systems operate much differently.

Jeff Masters
Doc, what is the relationship between the Sun's cycles and arctic sea ice?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Glad to see Louisiana Gov. Jendal not going to take the unemployment increase from the stimulus pacakage. Hooryay! Things are better in the state than the media is reporting and the state has recovered from Katrina. Why is our governor Crist taking all the money???



Because our gov. is setting the example of standing beside our president and taking care of the less fortunate people in FL,there's plenty of wealth down here and they've been getting the MOST brakes the last 4yrs...time for the little guy who busts his but for a meeger wage and complains not once about it to get a little help!!!!
Down she goes.......

Quoting stillwaiting:



Because our gov. is setting the example of standing beside our president and taking care of the less fortunate people in FL,there's plenty of wealth down here and they've been getting the MOST brakes the last 4yrs...time for the little guy who busts his but for a meeger wage and complains not once about it to get a little help!!!!


Not sure but, is Gov. Crist up for election next year....HUM. Good for Gov. Gendal.....The US Gov. turned their back on Katrina and the Gov. is doing the same. Lots of respect for the Gov.
Quoting stillwaiting:



Because our gov. is setting the example of standing beside our president and taking care of the less fortunate people in FL,there's plenty of wealth down here and they've been getting the MOST brakes the last 4yrs...time for the little guy who busts his but for a meeger wage and complains not once about it to get a little help!!!!


This link will provide a guide to your share of the current plan. Many will not benefit until the 2010 tax season.


Link
NASA global warming satellite lands in ocean
Published - Feb 24 2009 09:33AM EST


A rocket carrying a NASA global warming satellite splashed into the ocean near Antarctica early Tuesday after a failed launch.

Quoting TampaSpin:
NASA global warming satellite lands in ocean
Published - Feb 24 2009 09:33AM EST


» Close Print AAA Single Page View A rocket carrying a NASA global warming satellite splashed into the ocean near Antarctica early Tuesday after a failed launch.



Great, more sea ice problems.
Would that be surface ice or the thicker ice that was miss surveyed? Do any of you know where to find that information? Crashed GW satellite must be a big wad of money went down with that one, preliminary info it failed to separate from the rocket.
Quoting Seastep:
See this graph... if I remember off the top of my head, by 2020, the
models are at the top of that scale and only get steeper... even if
temperatures rise some, still going to be improbable for them to catch
up.



Might be best to look it up. The models are not off the top of that scale by 2020. As a matter of fact most model's averaged runs are between .4 to 0.7 around 2020, with the median around 0.5. Top of the scale would be 0.9.

AGW Predictions

In addition, the models have performed very well to date. (Source: Rahmstorf. 2007, Science Vol. 316, no. 5825, pg. 70)

Rhamsdorf_ AGW Predictions

The bottom axis runs from 1970 to 2007. The solid lines are actual observations and the dashed are modeled.

Quoting Ossqss:


Great, more sea ice problems.


That's not a "sea-ice" satellite, it was a new CO2 monitoring mission.
Sun and sea ice info.

Link


Another Ice Age article?


Link


Ice issue a natural cycle article??

Link


Ok, these really muddy the water for me. Head in sand time.
Destructive windshear!
100 kt Wind Shear in some areas!
Quoting streamtracker:


That's not a "sea-ice" satellite, it was a new CO2 monitoring mission.


Obviously, my poor attempt at a sea ice joke crashed also.
This is a very fictious chart when we don't even know what the starting Anomaly actually is when only 100 + years are observed. Help me! Am i thinking correctly.

Quoting Ossqss:
Sun and sea ice info.

Link


Another Ice Age article?


Link


Ice issue a natural cycle article??

Link


Ok, these really muddy the water for me. Head in sand time.


First article links draught cycles to sea temp oscillations, but the intensity of draught is linked to AGW.

Ice age article quotes Pravda (that's the propganda paper of the russian government) - that article has been debubked.

The last one refers to this article: Divine, D. V., and C. Dick (2006), Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas, J. Geophys. Res., 111,

The paper only covers period up to 2002. I am not sure how the accelerated rate of sea-ice loss after that would affect their conclusions.


Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a very fictious chart when we don't even know what the starting Anomaly actually is when only 100 + years are observed. Help me! Am i thinking correctly.



Are you saying that the devices used 100 years ago were not calibrated consistently or correctly ? Are you suggesting that the data being used does not contain near enough of a timeline to be able to hypothesize an outcome?
Quoting streamtracker:


First article links draught cycles to sea temp oscillations, but the intensity of draught is linked to AGW.

Ice age article quotes Pravda (that's the propganda paper of the russian government) - that article has been debubked.

The last one refers to this article: Divine, D. V., and C. Dick (2006), Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas, J. Geophys. Res., 111,

The paper only covers period up to 2002. I am not sure how the accelerated rate of sea-ice loss after that would affect their conclusions.




Head is still in the sand.

I am still trying to figure out the story of the little ice age from the 1300's to the 1800's and am getting one of those my brain headaches.
Quoting Ossqss:


Are you saying that the devices used 100 years ago were not calibrated consistently or correctly ? Are you suggesting that the data being used does not contain near enough of a timeline to be able to hypothesize an outcome?


That is exactly what im asking? If that makes sense.
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a very fictious chart when we don't even know what the starting Anomaly actually is when only 100 + years are observed. Help me! Am i thinking correctly.



For that particular plot, the temperature anomaly is defined as the difference from the average global temperature in 2000. Not sure why you would say it's fictitious.
Quoting Ossqss:


This link will provide a guide to your share of the current plan. Many will not benefit until the 2010 tax season.


Link


Bush tried to give money directly to the american public,to try and stimulate the economy and it did not work,getting CREDIT to the american public is one ingredent in getting this economy fixed,there are plenty of people who pay off there credit,the refiancing of properties that where way over appraised is where all the bad debit came from!!!and I agree not EVERY home owner should be bailed out,each case should be reviewed and approved/disapproved on a case by case basis...IMO
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is exactly what im asking? If that makes sense.


Please , no scents allowed. Pun intended CUL8R ª¿ª
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


For that particular plot, the temperature anomaly is defined as the difference from the average global temperature in 2000. Not sure why you would say it's fictitious.


Why did we (they) decidie that 2000 is the year of the average that we should go by. Whats wrong with the year 1910. I'm not sure i know where the average is. Do you or anyone?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Why did we (they) decidie that 2000 is the year of the average that we should go by. Whats wrong with the year 1910. I'm not sure i know where the average is. Do you or anyone?


Not quite sure what "average" you're talking about. If you're going to make a graph of temperature anomalies, you need to define what those anomalies are relative to. The choice of baseline is arbitrary and would depend on what information you intend to convey. The folks that put together this particular graph wanted to show how much warming is projected to occur over the 21st century. Using year 2000 temps as a baseline seems to be the most logical choice to me.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Why did we (they) decidie that 2000 is the year of the average that we should go by. Whats wrong with the year 1910. I'm not sure i know where the average is. Do you or anyone?


The real question is -- what is the temp supposed to actually be at any give point in time? The real answer is -- We don't actually know for sure, so we postulate.

Please feel free to pick you own preferred definition of the last word above.

1. to ask, demand, or claim.
2. to claim or assume the existence or truth of, esp. as a basis for reasoning or arguing.
3. to assume without proof, or as self-evident; take for granted.
4. Mathematics, Logic. to assume as a postulate.
–noun
5. something taken as self-evident or assumed without proof as a basis for reasoning.
6. Mathematics, Logic. a proposition that requires no proof, being self-evident, or that is for a specific purpose assumed true, and that is used in the proof of other propositions; axiom.
7. a fundamental principle.
8. a necessary condition; prerequisite.
142. P451
Well, so much for that experiment....




VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, California — A NASA satellite launched on a mission to track carbon dioxide emissions worldwide had technical problems shortly after its pre-dawn takeoff Tuesday that put in jeopardy its mission to better understand greenhouse gas and climate change.

The Taurus XL rocket carrying the Orbiting Carbon Observatory blasted off at 1:55 a.m. PST from Vandenberg Air Force Base on California's Central Coast, but launch managers shifted to a contingency plan minutes later because the payload fairing failed to separate properly from the spacecraft after it left the atmosphere, NASA commentator George Diller said.

"We have not had a successful launch tonight and will not be able to have a successful OCO mission," Diller said.

The fairing shelters the payload as the launch vehicle flies through the atmosphere.

The carbon observatory is NASA's first satellite dedicated to monitoring carbon dioxide on a global scale. Measurements collected from the $280 million mission were expected to improve climate models and help researchers determine where the greenhouse gas is coming from and how much is being absorbed by forests and oceans.
Arabian proverb:
"If you are friends with the Captain, you can wipe your hands on the sail".
Quoting P451:
Well, so much for that experiment....




VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, California — A NASA satellite launched on a mission to track carbon dioxide emissions worldwide had technical problems shortly after its pre-dawn takeoff Tuesday that put in jeopardy its mission to better understand greenhouse gas and climate change.

The Taurus XL rocket carrying the Orbiting Carbon Observatory blasted off at 1:55 a.m. PST from Vandenberg Air Force Base on California's Central Coast, but launch managers shifted to a contingency plan minutes later because the payload fairing failed to separate properly from the spacecraft after it left the atmosphere, NASA commentator George Diller said.

"We have not had a successful launch tonight and will not be able to have a successful OCO mission," Diller said.

The fairing shelters the payload as the launch vehicle flies through the atmosphere.

The carbon observatory is NASA's first satellite dedicated to monitoring carbon dioxide on a global scale. Measurements collected from the $280 million mission were expected to improve climate models and help researchers determine where the greenhouse gas is coming from and how much is being absorbed by forests and oceans.


OK, 280 mil to determine where its coming from??? I could have bought a bank with that money and refinaced myself accoirdingly. .
Quoting theshepherd:
Arabian proverb:
"If you are friends with the Captain, you can wipe your hands on the sail".


OK, I'll bite. NO, on second thought, I don't want to ask about the water in the desert item.
Quoting theshepherd:
Arabian proverb:
"If you are friends with the Captain, you can wipe your hands on the sail".


Glad I don't sail over there.
147. N3EG
Quoting TampaSpin:
NASA global warming satellite lands in ocean
Published - Feb 24 2009 09:33AM EST


A rocket carrying a NASA global warming satellite splashed into the ocean near Antarctica early Tuesday after a failed launch.



Can they blame that satellite crash on global wa...um, never mind, that one was too obvious.
Quoting streamtracker:


Might be best to look it up. The models are not off the top of that scale by 2020. As a matter of fact most model's averaged runs are between .4 to 0.7 around 2020, with the median around 0.5. Top of the scale would be 0.9.

AGW Predictions

In addition, the models have performed very well to date. (Source: Rahmstorf. 2007, Science Vol. 316, no. 5825, pg. 70)

Rhamsdorf_ AGW Predictions

The bottom axis runs from 1970 to 2007. The solid lines are actual observations and the dashed are modeled.



Yes they are. First, I did not say "off," I said "at." The top of the scale mentioned is .8, which the graph shows the model consensus is at about .8 in 2020. Maybe a little less, but still.... just eyeballed it. Certain models are certainly there.
Quoting streamtracker:


Might be best to look it up. The models are not off the top of that scale by 2020. As a matter of fact most model's averaged runs are between .4 to 0.7 around 2020, with the median around 0.5. Top of the scale would be 0.9.

AGW Predictions

In addition, the models have performed very well to date. (Source: Rahmstorf. 2007, Science Vol. 316, no. 5825, pg. 70)

Rhamsdorf_ AGW Predictions

The bottom axis runs from 1970 to 2007. The solid lines are actual observations and the dashed are modeled.



Add 2008 to that second chart and it paints a different picture.
Quoting Ossqss:


This link will provide a guide to your share of the current plan. Many will not benefit until the 2010 tax season.


Link


If at all. Bush cuts expire in 2010... so might actually go up. Have to see what Obama comes out with in his Thursday budget proposal regarding extension or non-extension and what levels.
Quoting stillwaiting:


Bush tried to give money directly to the american public,to try and stimulate the economy and it did not work,getting CREDIT to the american public is one ingredent in getting this economy fixed,there are plenty of people who pay off there credit,the refiancing of properties that where way over appraised is where all the bad debit came from!!!and I agree not EVERY home owner should be bailed out,each case should be reviewed and approved/disapproved on a case by case basis...IMO


Huh? We were headed for recession and it didn't happen. Reality please.

Regardless of how you feel about it, it did work to stave off a recession.

Personally feel in hindsight that it was too big and overheated things. Half probably would have been better. Really just needed a nudge.

Personally feel the markets should be left alone and only small stimulus to blunt the downturns.

How capitalism works. Long periods of growth followed by short periods of recession. And over and over.

I'm going to get off this topic now. Just couldn't let the "did not work" go unchallenged... because it's a false statement by any measure of reality. If you disagree, show me where the economy retracted after the stimulus or market declined. It didn't. Just a fact.
The OCO crashed. We could say it went south.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29364902/wid=18298287
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a very fictious chart when we don't even know what the starting
Anomaly actually is when only 100 + years are observed. Help me! Am i
thinking correctly.



No. The anomoly is measured against a baseline from within that timeframe.
Quoting Seastep:


Add 2008 to that second chart and it paints a different picture.


One year does not make or break a trend. We are talking about long-term trends.
Quoting Seastep:


Huh? We were headed for recession and it didn't happen. Reality please.

Regardless of how you feel about it, it did work to stave off a recession.

Personally feel in hindsight that it was too big and overheated things. (????) Half probably would have been better. Really just needed a nudge.

Personally feel the markets should be left alone and only small stimulus to blunt the downturns.

How capitalism works. Long periods of growth followed by short periods of recession. And over and over.

I'm going to get off this topic now. Just couldn't let the "did not work" go unchallenged... because it's a false statement by any measure of reality. If you disagree, show me where the economy retracted after the stimulus or market declined. It didn't. Just a fact.


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.
Quoting streamtracker:


One year does not make or break a trend. We are talking about long-term trends.


Completely agree. But it did change the trend... as of right now, it is below the models based on actual temp data. Might it change. Sure. Need to watch the next 5-10 years.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.


The stimulus was in 2003? Has nothing to do with the current recession.
AtsaFunnyToo

Other than, as mentioned, may have overheated things.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.


But the recession was a secret until October when the vast majority of the Dow slide began. Link
Please for give me for posting this-had to do it. UFO gamma ray blast vaporises NASA's global warning satellite
Written by queen mudder


Story written: 24 February 2009
Send to a friend Print this
Tags: NASA, UFO
image for UFO gamma ray blast vaporises NASA's global warning satellite
Destroyed, the global warning satellite before it crashed into the Antarctic causing random havoc

NASA HQ, Groom Lake, Nevada - (An Inconvenient Spoof Mess): "Hell, we are screwed!" was the only comment from NASA spokesman George Diller as the Agency's flagship Orbiting Carbon Observatory global warning (sic) satellite was blasted to smithereens by an unexplicable gamma ray blast shortly after take off today.

The $280 million Taurus XL rocket-powered space monitor appeared to have come into contact with a 'malevolent' UFO shortly after blast-off according to tracking devices at California's Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The Observatory's remains then crashed into the ocean near Antarctica obliterating an entire endangered species colony of Emperor King penguins.

Alsodestroyed were some 600 polar bears, a shoal of mating blue orcas, the world's last remaining 25 Patagonian toothfish, the washed up remains of Argentina's Falklands War flagship the General Belgrano and Captain Scott of the Antarctic's Grade-II lited Nissen hut.

A 200 ft tidal wave was later reported to have partially engulfed the icy World Heritage Site triggering countless tsunami alerts in South America.

Prof Stephen Hawking is a cosmic genius.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%
Quoting Seastep:


The stimulus was in 2003? Has nothing to do with the current recession.


The stimulus was the "Economic Stimulus Act of 2008", signed by Bush in February of 2008.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


The stimulus was the "Economic Stimulus Act of 2008", signed by Bush in February of 2008.


OK. You got me. LOL.
Quoting Seastep:


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%


Revised stats and another revision to come in a few days.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008,
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter “advance” estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The fourth-
quarter “preliminary” estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 27,

ossgss

The figures given are real GDP. Wouldn't surprise me if Q3 was negative... just read the press release. They need to update their tables.

Table doesn't jibe with the press release dated the same day?
Link to the table (XLS): Link

What's up with that?
164 ossgss

Also, just clarifying your statement... annual rate is not quarter to quarter. The quarter to quarter was -1.03... but annual rate would be about that x 3 and 2/3 quarters to get the annual of 3.8%.

There using chained $ in the release, which is accurate for inflation.
Quoting Seastep:
164 ossgss

Also, just clarifying your statement... annual rate is not quarter to quarter. The quarter to quarter was -1.03... but annual rate would be about that x 3 and 2/3 quarters to get the annual of 3.8%.

There using chained $ in the release, which is accurate for inflation.


I just cut and pasted it from the lengthy report. GDP is really not a big worry right now, but is indicative of the times at hand. Lets see what happens with the stress tests coming for our big banks over teh next few days. It starts tomorrow and we will finally know what was hidden under the skirts.
Quoting Ossqss:


I just cut and pasted it from the lengthy report. GDP is really not a big worry right now, but is indicative of the times at hand. Lets see what happens with the stress tests coming for our big banks over teh next few days. It starts tomorrow and we will finally know what was hidden under the skirts.


Yep. Market is loving Bernanke's comments even with the housing and consumer confidence figures that came out.

And, in rereading the press release, I get it now. A little confusing how they wrote it, but they're saying the decrease from Q3 to Q4 of 1.03% translates to 3.8% on an annual basis.
Quoting Seastep:


Yep. Market is loving Bernanke's comments even with the housing and consumer confidence figures that came out.

And, in rereading the press release, I get it now. A little confusing how they wrote it, but they're saying the decrease from Q3 to Q4 of 1.03% translates to 3.8% on an annual basis.


Lets see if it can hang on during the 3 pm witching hour.
Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.


I believe he stated that could be the case if the stimulus works, which is questionable at best. I hope it does, even with all of the pork it has packaged into it.
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.


It is a forecast. Personally think it would definitely been the case without this "stimulus," but who knows.

Most economists had predicted just that before the bill passed (i.e. if govt does nothing economy should recover by end of year). Now, not so much.
Which do you prefer, neutral or la nina?



The European model forecasts a big arctic intrusion for the east(even Florida). While the GFS wants a repeat of this last front Sunday/Monday(March 1st/2nd). Since the Euro is proven more accurate and the GFS has been flip-flopping, I guess we'll have to go with the colder solution. Still a lot can change as we inch closer.
FAA mulls consolidating meteorologist centers


Quoting Seastep:


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%


The "official" determination of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, who has determined that Dec 07 was the start of the current one.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Rule of thumb has always been two quarters consecutive decrease in GDP, but that is not the "official" designation.
Shooting on parade route

02:51 PM CST on Tuesday, February 24, 2009

WWLTV.com

NEW ORLEANS -- At least one person was shot on the parade route on Fat Tuesday, according to spokesman Bob Young

As much as five -- including an infant -- could have been injured, though there are few details right now. The injuries are not considered to be life threatening.

The shooting happened on the corner of Second Street and St. Charles Avenue. At least a block is coroned off with police tape. The parade continued along the route.

Two suspects are currently in custody, according to Young. There has been no weapon recovered.
Quoting futuremet:
Which do you prefer, neutral or la nina?





La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.


It is currently 50-50 between la nina an el nino so far

It will be interesting to see what happens
Quoting futuremet:


It is currently 50-50 between la nina an el nino so far

It will be interesting to see what happens

It seems to be leaning on a Neutral year to me, closer to the El Nino side. Just gotta watch whats going to happen.
Quoting weatherbro:
The European model forecasts a big arctic intrusion for the east(even Florida). While the GFS wants a repeat of this last front Sunday/Monday(March 1st/2nd). Since the Euro is proven more accurate and the GFS has been flip-flopping, I guess we'll have to go with the colder solution. Still a lot can change as we inch closer.


The CMC and UKMET agrees with the ECMWF of the cold solution coming up early next week with a big 500mb longwave trough setting up.
2007 was weird. even thought the season was less active than 06 in ACE it was more active in #s also the fact it devastated central America and the Caribbean even though it was technically inactive. I think the storms of 07 are just as impressive as how humans coped with them (both in a positive and negative way)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The "official" determination of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, who has determined that Dec 07 was the start of the current one.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Rule of thumb has always been two quarters consecutive decrease in GDP, but that is not the "official" designation.


Thanks. We were talking apples and oranges.

I certainly wouldn't disagree that in pegged dollars, that was the peak.

Close enough for govt work. ;)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.


I was scared when Ike was looking absolutely perfect out there and the forecast track was pointing right at my doorstep!

Thankfully (for me) that didn't last all too long as the forecast track kept shifting south.
Quoting Drakoen:


The CMC and UKMET agrees with the ECMWF of the cold solution coming up early next week with a big 500mb longwave trough setting up.


How far S into FL, if you don't mind?
Quoting Seastep:


How far S into FL, if you don't mind?


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.
Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.
Oh, no, not another cold front - I love the cold but now ready for some warmer weather! Heating bills are a killer!
Thanks Drak. I'll keep an eye on it.

Don't need another $600 electric bill!
Dow held on to the gains. Hope this portends more optimistic economic indicators.

Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.


Any possibility of a coastal low developing off the Carolinas after the cold air pushes through?
models are leaning toward a storm forming off the mid atlantic by Monday,gotta love those March snowstorms here in New England
Quoting NEwxguy:
models are leaning toward a storm forming off the mid atlantic by Monday,gotta love those March snowstorms here in New England


I wouldn't know. Unfortunately, I've never been to New England. I'm hoping for a late snow for the coastal Carolinas. I've seen it happen before, believe it or not!
I want snow, New Orleans has had more snow than N VA
Can't stand those Marach snowstorms here in Michigan. We have enough from November to February
will have to watch what happens this weekend,depending on where it forms,you may get your snow,should be enough cold air around up and down the east coast
I concur Drak

During saturday, an amplifying shortwave trough will rapidly move across the midwest, and will reach its peak strength the following day. A mid-level anticyclone to its southeast will enhance warm air advection throughout much of the extreme southeast. According to the GFS a stationary front will likely be in place over the upper-southeast Saturday. The aid of warm air advection from the anticyclone and the instability from the shortwave will be suffice for cyclogenesis to start occuring. The cyclone will rapidly deepen and stride toward the northeast. This system will increase the chance in FL to about 30% Monday. Now by sunday, the shortwave will begin to interact with an extremely steep longwave from Canada. The interaction will result a large 500mb longwave trough to form over the eastern U.S. A large mid level high pressure system will then build over the east, and it will just blast cold air southward.


Drak

Albeit this conclusion is reasonable, the local weather forecast is expecting lows to be around the mid 50s for monday and tuesdays (Central Fl). So I am remaining conservative by not leaning toward a big chill yet.


Model temperature forecast for tuesday and monday





A cold front will come through....but I am still skeptical about a big chill
upper-30s! what a heat wave!
Quoting futuremet:
Model temperature forecast for tuesday and monday





A cold front will come through....but I am still skeptical about a big chill
Quoting twistermania:
upper-30s! what a heat wave!


Check out the low temperatures then....
I'll run a poll I did for 08 which of these areas will get hit by a devastating hurricane in 09, the last storm to retire that hit the area will be mentioned at the right
1 Canada (Juan 03)
2 New England & upper Atlantic states (Bob 1991)
3 Carolinas (Isabel 03)
4 Georgia and N Florida (Dora 1964)
5 Rest of Florida (Wilma 05, unless Fay retires from 08)
6 GOMex (Ike 08)
7 Mexico (Dean 07)
8 Central America (Felix 07)
9 Jamaica (Dean 07)
10 Cuba (Ike or Paloma if she retires)
11 Hispaniola (Noel 07 or Hanna if she retires)
12 Lesser Antilles (Lenny 1999)
13 Bermuda and/or Azores (Fabian 03)
Gustav should be included for Cuba
202 I would have but Ike came after Gustav and is therefore the last storm to retire in Cuba assuming Ike retires.
what category hurricane did paloma become?
Category 4 as far as I remember. The season ended with two cat 4 in a row, Omar and Paloma.
205 Is that another record for 08 ending with two cat fours?
WMO: Reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during 2008

British Caribbean Territories

Canada

As additional areas report the doc can be accessed here
206. Good question. It could be. I check it out and post the result here.
Bourbon Street CAM Link
208 There were many years that came extremely close to having with two major hurricanes but only 2008 and 1917 have done it
207 that was helpful in narrowing down possible retired storms in 08
I checked the seasons from 1900 until 2008 and in this time frame seasons which ended with two hurricanes were:
1909 ending with a cat 3 and a cat 2, last storm dissipated Nov 14 (11 storms in total)
1910 cat 2 cat 4, dissipated Oct 21 (5 total)
1913 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Oct 30 (6 total)
1917 cat 3 cat 4, dissipated Sept 30 (4 total)
1929 cat 4 (the infamous Florida Hurricane)cat 1, dissipated Oct 22 (3 total)
1930 cat 2 cat 4, dissipated Sept 17 (2 total)
1932 cat 4 cat 2, dissipated Nov 14 (11 total)
1935 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Nov 8 (6 total)
1939 cat 4 cat 1, dissipated Nov 6 (5 total)
1945 cat 2 cat 2, dissipated Oct 13 (11 total)
1947 cat 1 cat 3, dissipated Oct 21 (9 total)
1948 cat 4 cat 1, dissipated Nov 10 (9 total)
1951 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Oct 20 (10 total)
1952 cat 2 cat 4, dissipated Oct 28 (6 total)
1958 cat 4 cat 1, dissipated Oct 13 (10 total)
1962 cat 2 cat 3, dissipated Oct 22 (5 total)
1969 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Nov 25 (18 total, including Camille)
1970 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Oct 28 (10 total)
1976 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Oct 28 (10 total)
1980 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Nov 27 (11 total)
1984 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Dec 24 (13 total)
1985 cat 1 cat 3, dissipated Nov 23 (11 total)
1986 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Nov 21 (10 total)
1987 cat 3 cat 1, dissipated Oct 13 (7 total)
1991 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Nov 2 (8 total)
1993 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Sept 21 (8 total)
1994 cat 2 cat 1, dissipated Nov 21 (7 total)
1996 cat 3 cat 1, dissipated Nov 24 (13 total)
1998 cat 5 (Mitch) cat 1, dissipated Dec 1 (14 total)
2001 cat 1 cat 1, dissipated Dec 4 (15 total)
2002 cat 1 cat 4, dissipated Oct 4 (12 total)
2006 cat 3 cat 1, dissipated Oct 2 (10 total)
2008 cat 4 cat 4, dissipated Nov 9 (16 total)

If I counted correctly, 34 seasons featured 2 hurricanes at the end of the season, but only 2008 had two cat 4.
One has to remember though, that it is more likely to get two majors at the end if the season already ends shortly after peak-time, i.e. from end September until mid October.

(btw, I only count TS and higher, so no TD in this account)
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I'll run a poll I did for 08 which of these areas will get hit by a devastating hurricane in 09, the last storm to retire that hit the area will be mentioned at the right
1 Canada (Juan 03)
2 New England & upper Atlantic states (Bob 1991)
3 Carolinas (Isabel 03)
4 Georgia and N Florida (Dora 1964)
5 Rest of Florida (Wilma 05, unless Fay retires from 08)
6 GOMex (Ike 08)
7 Mexico (Dean 07)
8 Central America (Felix 07)
9 Jamaica (Dean 07)
10 Cuba (Ike or Paloma if she retires)
11 Hispaniola (Noel 07 or Hanna if she retires)
12 Lesser Antilles (Lenny 1999)
13 Bermuda and/or Azores (Fabian 03)


Before I answer, one small correction. I think David in 1979 was the last storm to be retired in the northern Florida/Georgia area, not Dora. Just thought I'd point that out.

Now to answer...

3 Carolinas, particularly South Carolina
5 Rest of Florida (honestly, in what year does Florida not get hit?)
6 Gulf of Mexico
8 Central America
9 Jamaica
10 Cuba
12 Lesser Antilles
212 thank you for responding and I thought about putting David in but I wasn't sure if it did serious damage there
This year I think GOM and Caribbean will get a break, so I say rest of FL, Carolinas, and Lesser Antilles, (is PR considered lesser Antilles?)
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This year I think GOM and Caribbean will get a break, so I say rest of FL, Carolinas, and Lesser Antilles, (is PR considered lesser Antilles?)


No. Puerto Rico is part of the Greater Antilles.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This year I think GOM and Caribbean will get a break, so I say rest of FL, Carolinas, and Lesser Antilles, (is PR considered lesser Antilles?)


nooooooooooooooooo lol
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This year I think GOM and Caribbean will get a break, so I say rest of FL, Carolinas, and Lesser Antilles, (is PR considered lesser Antilles?)


It's been a while since hurricanes have been steered toward the Carolinas. For a while in the 90's we were hurricane alley here in Wilminton!! I wouldn't be surprised to see another rash of them in the next few years here.
OK PR will be the 14th category and not apart of the lesser Antilles and post 217 what about Isabel!?!
Hurricane Warnings and Forecasts

* Atlantic
* Caribbean
* Gulf of Mexico
* East Pacific
* Central Pacific
* Western Pacific

NWS Local Forecasts

National Preparedness Week Link
May 24-30, 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes:
OK PR will be the 14th category and 217 what about Isabel!?!


That was 6 years ago and Wilmington wasn't affected very badly. It was well north of us. Not meaning to make light of the misfortune of people in the NE part of our state, however. The 7 years between Bertha '96 and Isabel '03, NC was hit by 5 cat 2/3 hurricanes including Fran '96 and Floyd '99. Both of these storms did MAJOR damage across the eastern part of this state. Floyd's rains flooded many areas worse than the levee breech flooded NO. I have pictures of me rowing a boat up my street in 6' of water. All in all, this decade has been relatively quiet, and SC hasn't had a major strike since Hugo in '89.
Lol.....looks like hurricane season started early this year
It looks like something is happening atop Mt. Redoubt.. Maybe clouds, but different Link nothing special on the webicorders though. but please look and tell me what we are seeing.
Quoting futuremet:
Lol.....looks like hurricane season started early this year


looks that way lol
I do believe the market will be up 10%+ tommorow and should help to restore some consumer confidence.....



Hurricane Preparation Entry...Link
Quoting stillwaiting:
I do believe the market will be up 10%+ tommorow and should help to restore some consumer confidence.....


Only if the PRES says something very good. Unfortunately, I think we have a technical bounce in place.
Good night everyone
Ojmjakon, Russia gets to have a nice overnight low of -70 tomorrow. Stay indoors lol?
222. Redoubt might be letting out some water vapor. Don't know. Not much vertical motion in the clouds though. They do seem pretty thick. May be the effect of the mountain top lifting the air that flows over it. That would happen with a non-volcanic mountain, too. Hard to tell from one image. Maybe if I sat and watched.
Quoting bappit:
222. Redoubt might be letting out some water vapor. Don't know. Not much vertical motion in the clouds though. They do seem pretty thick. May be the effect of the mountain top lifting the air that flows over it. That would happen with a non-volcanic mountain, too. Hard to tell from one image. Maybe if I sat and watched.


thanks for looking at it.. I figured it anything significant was happening it would show on the webicorder, but the most I've seen on top of the mountain since watching the last month.
Wow. Did Gov. Jindal really just invoke Katrina as a reason to trust Republicans?

I'm not sure if thats sad or funny. Whatever it is, its proof that he's insane.
hurricanes rock the stuff out! I cant wait till 09 season bring them on bring them on now! I want to be inder a hurricane warning when i wake up in the morning yes!yes!yes!
Quoting G35Wayne:
hurricanes rock the stuff out! I cant wait till 09 season bring them on bring them on now! I want to be inder a hurricane warning when i wake up in the morning yes!yes!yes!


I don't know if I'd make that kind of claim, but yeah... I hear ya.
Quoting G35Wayne:
hurricanes rock the stuff out! I cant wait till 09 season bring them on bring them on now! I want to be inder a hurricane warning when i wake up in the morning yes!yes!yes!


LOL!!! Have you ever been in a major one? The chaos leading up to them can be exciting, but the bad ones are SCARY when they're happening. Not to mention the cleanup afterward is AWFUL!!
Quoting natrwalkn:


LOL!!! Have you ever been in a major one? The chaos leading up to them can be exciting, but the bad ones are SCARY when they're happening. Not to mention the cleanup afterward is AWFUL!!


Odd as it may seem, despite being through a couple of majors (most notably Gustav, although Katrina and Andrew were pretty bad, as well), I don't at all become afraid of them when they near me. It's going through the aftermath of a hurricane that bothers me. The storm itself, I can handle fairly easily.
Well, I have lots of trees around my house and at night you can hear them cracking and falling but can't see them!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Western Australia 110E-125E
=================================
There are currently no significant lows in the region.

At midday WDT Wednesday a weak tropical low was located near 12.3S 128.5E, or 260 kilometres west of Darwin. The low is expected to move generally westwards during today and Thursday and be off the west Kimberley coast by late Thursday. It is not expected to develop into a cyclone before Friday but may develop on Friday, or more likely on Saturday, as it moves southwest towards the Pilbara coast. This system is likely to produce significant rainfall in areas of the Pilbara over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
====================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I'll run a poll I did for 08 which of these areas will get hit by a devastating hurricane in 09, the last storm to retire that hit the area will be mentioned at the right
1 Canada (Juan 03)
2 New England & upper Atlantic states (Bob 1991)
3 Carolinas (Isabel 03)
4 Georgia and N Florida (Dora 1964)
5 Rest of Florida (Wilma 05, unless Fay retires from 08)
6 GOMex (Ike 08)
7 Mexico (Dean 07)
8 Central America (Felix 07)
9 Jamaica (Dean 07)
10 Cuba (Ike or Paloma if she retires)
11 Hispaniola (Noel 07 or Hanna if she retires)
12 Lesser Antilles (Lenny 1999)
13 Bermuda and/or Azores (Fabian 03)


None, I hope.
Latest Video From Futuremet Productions....part 2 will be uploaded this afternoon



Description

What Are Baroclinic Zones
A baroclinic zone is where a temperature and a presurre gradient exists, such as along frontal zones. Baroclinic zones are most common in mid latitude and sub-polar regions of the world, because extratropical cyclones are the systems that dominate the weather in these regions. Tropical regions however, are relatively barotropic, due to the lack of temperature and pressure fluctuations.
I The Dynamics
Planetary Scale Baroclinity
In a sense, the whole earth itself is baroclinically unstable because, it is heated unevenly by the sun. The temperature varies greatly from latitude-to-latitude, from pole-to-pole, from the poles to the equator. The spherical structure of the earth enables various regions to receive the unequal heating from the sun. For example, the equator is actually closer to the sun than the poles. Therefore, the photons take longer to reach the poles. Because of the curved structure, the suns rays are more concentrated at the equator, and more stretched at higher latitudes. As a result of this, the equatorial regions are often the warmest on the earth. Now because of this, air from both sides of the equator will move toward the equator and converge. This global scale region of converging air is commonly called the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) or equatorial trough or front.
57 Degrees SWFL -- Waiting on the dawn light to walk the Dog.... Warmer is better.....still looking for Rain
I've only been through one cyclone that was Isabel as much damage as it did I thought it was entertaining and probably got me hooked on hurricanes. We got rain from several 04 storms and I loved going out in the middle of Hanna which brought 7 inches of rain to the area. Still we haven't had a windstorm like Isabel since. In fact the last time I lost power was during Isabel hopefully nature can dish out something exciting locally for me.
238 me too, we all shout hope for an 06 like season but chances are 09 won't
watched history stations doomsday show last night dec 21 2012 is approaching. there is going to be all kinds of weather. how about a countdown?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I've only been through one cyclone that was Isabel as much damage as it did I thought it was entertaining and probably got me hooked on hurricanes. We got rain from several 04 storms and I loved going out in the middle of Hanna which brought 7 inches of rain to the area. Still we haven't had a windstorm like Isabel since. In fact the last time I lost power was during Isabel hopefully nature can dish out something exciting locally for me.


Careful what you wish for.....or the roar of a generator may be yours LOL
Quoting all4hurricanes:
238 me too, we all shout hope for an 06 like season but chances are 09 won't
You are talking foolish.
Quoting theshepherd:
You are talking foolish.


He isn't, odds are 2009 will be an active one, remember in 2008 when the stearing currents shifted and we had 6 USA landfalls? 2009 will likely be similar to 2008 in terms of storm numbers. This of course, is my opinion.
246 CT
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I've only been through one cyclone that was Isabel as much damage as it did I thought it was entertaining and probably got me hooked on hurricanes. We got rain from several 04 storms and I loved going out in the middle of Hanna which brought 7 inches of rain to the area. Still we haven't had a windstorm like Isabel since. In fact the last time I lost power was during Isabel hopefully nature can dish out something exciting locally for me.
In a drought that has lasted for years, anyone looking for anything more than a desperately needed long soaking gentle rain season is talking foolish.
Fierce heat descending on South Australia and Victoria
Brett Dutschke, Wednesday February 25, 2009 - 20:20 EDT

45 degrees and 60km/h northerlies in Eucla today is a hint of what South Australians and Victorians can expect in the next few days. This was Eucla's hottest day in four weeks, hottest February day in 12 years and about 20 degrees above the average.

Thursday will be the hottest day in almost three weeks for most of SA with the temperature soaring into the high 30s, even the mid 40s on the Eyre Peninsula.

It is not likely to be as hot or as windy as three weeks ago but fire danger will still become extreme and there will be some raised dust. Northerlies should be strongest on Eyre Peninsula where they should gust to 60 to 70 km/h, possibly a bit stronger before a gusty cooler change arrives late in the day.

For Victoria the hottest day will be on Friday. The temperature will peak in the high 30s and low 40s as northerlies gust to 60 to 70 km/h ahead of a gusty change late in the day.

The southerlies behind the change will be of similar strength to the hot northerlies ahead of it.

These wind speeds are about two-thirds to three-quarters of those three weeks ago, but still strong enough to aggravate bushfires and cause fire-fighters problems.

- Weatherzone
Quoting leftovers:
watched history stations doomsday show last night dec 21 2012 is approaching. there is going to be all kinds of weather. how about a countdown?

No problem.
3-2-1 jump...
These types of comments start showing up on the Doc's blog every year around this time Shep...and it will get much worse!
Wait till mid-April!!

Really tough weather in your neighborhood Aussie. We've got serious drought issues developing here in SWFL as well. When I'm working out east at the barns/polo grounds -- I look around and I just see *POOF*. The frost has turned all the acreage into fire fuel. I find myself always checking wind direction....as the routes out of this section are VERY limited... and if we have to bolt I want to know which way to go. Don't want to be a Crispy critter.

It's amusing to think that scientists are satisfied with making statements like the 'warmest' on record when our records go back for a fraction of time this world has been in existence (what's 100 years of data compared to billions of years??). Why do so many blindly accept the 'science' behind this statements? What ever happened to apolitical, unbiased, educated people?

BTW, I wonder the carbon footprint was of the NASA rocket that blew up yesterday trying to bring a satellite to space to study 'global warming'? Did you see the billowing smoke and explosion?
Texas is fried dry. Were gonna need a tropical storm or two this year to barrel into the central coast of TX and drench the parched land in central TX.
Quoting stillwaiting:
I do believe the market will be up 10% tommorow and should help to restore some consumer confidence.....


10% are you kidding....You actually think that Obama's message will do that...It will go down today....His message was more spending exactly what the Market did not want to hear.

The DOW will open nearly 100 points down!
A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the innerworking of the "hot towers" in never-before-seen detail.

256. Patrap 9:11 AM EST on February 25, 2009

Pat that was a pretty interesting video...I always thought that the eyewall was just a bunch of tornados mixed within.