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Jacksonville low keeps on spinning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2006

The persistent low pressure system about 50 miles east of Jacksonville Florida continues to kick up heavy thunderstorms and high winds over the waters off the Florida coast. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is still a very hefty 40-50 knots, and is expected to remain over 40 knots through Sunday, so development of this system into a tropical depression is not expected. However, radar animations out of Jacksonville, FL show a healthy circulation and some strong thunderstorms on the east and south sides. Wind speeds at a buoy 45 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine have been about 25 mph gusting to 30 mph this morning. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:06am EDT this morning showed some wind gusts as high as 45 mph in some of the thunderstorms. The low could affect Georgia and northern Florida today and Sunday much as a tropical depression would, bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Current radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands that the GFS model had been developing into a hurricane is now pretty ordinary looking. The GFS no longer develops this wave. A good general rule for model predictions of tropical storm formation:

1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.

2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.

3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.

That being said, we have a case where two reliable models--the GFS and NOGAPS--are forecasting that the large tropical wave that will move off Africa Sunday will develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. However, the wave will have to contend with a large cloud of Saharan dust which has just emerged from the coast of Africa.

Wind shear remains high over the Caribbean today, but the GFS is forecasting that this will drop significantly by Wednesday, and remain very low for the ten days following. I expect at least one tropical storm will form in the Atlantic during the next seven days. One candidate might be a weak tropical wave currently in the mid-Atlantic near 11N 40W.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Alec
night will=) I've been lurking...and we're nearing 1000 posts!LOL
good job jp..be sure and tell him a story..
1004. will40
nite Alec lol
good night will40..don't forget to take your teeth out and put them in the jar..it's on the nightstand next to the bed..lol
good night Alec..
1008. will40
ah ha you got it JP lol i really gone now hee hee
1009. will40
omg ALLY you are a trip see ya tomorrow
1010. Alec
But I did save a load of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico!

how sweet JP..you got to love that song!
now, do you have anything for tennessee? i was born in mobile but spent 10 yrs in nashville before coming home. so what ya'got?
i knew you would know the words...i forgot them once i returned to BAMA country!
one stanza is "met a girl"..another is "corn don't grow.."

ty
OKOKOK Now I will have to leave on the Rocky Top song ....

I have to be at work in the morning so yall have a great night...


Taco:0)
Yeah jp, all it needs is some convection around a closed low and we've got ourselves a depression. However, the environment isn't perfect right now so I think development will be slow to occur in the short term.
good night TACO...don't work too hard tomorrow..
If I was to bet I think the lead wave at 31W would have a better environment for development. I am interested that the GFS is being bullish again.
jphurricane2006 you think that may be come 96L
Yeah maybe jp, but it still needs convection. And like you said, the NHC wait for 6 hours at least to have organization and a closed low with convection around the center to call it a TD.
Back--and then to bed. The thunderstorms fell apart completely just before they got here--no rain at all. The pressure did a sharp fall for about 20 minutes, falling to 29.85 at 00:30, with pressure readings at 29.89 at 2400 and 0100. The wind is now from the south, and is considerably stronger than it was before the center passed through. Greys Reef buoy is at 23 gusting to 27 knots, which is also the strongest in this little event. Temp is up a couple of degrees after a little cooling from being near the dying storms, and is back above 80 and very humid. Back to bed, but no rain sucks.
Absolutely nothing must have happened today for people to be singing sweet home alabama and exchanging car insurance tips . ..

lol

What's the latest? Is our E Atl wave still with us?
Yeah David it probably will become 96L, but it may not develop that quickly.
The upper level divergence will allow more outflow, but for a developing wave it needs lower level convergence.
convergence =inflow and divergence = outflow. In a hurricane, you have low level convergence as the winds spiral towards the center and upper level divergence as the outflow is dispersed in the upper atmosphere.
Yeah jp, the long term environment certainly appears favorable.
Guys pray that we get something going before Sept. 1..and if you have been on here long enough you'll know why!
watching the forecasts, and if models are correct, i speculate that one hits east coast and one heads to open waters..devastation would be one storm hitting right behind another within a few days. has it ever happened?
Yes jp in a way, because the storm is not deep.
I remember that Weather456 said that you needed more upper level divergence than lower level convergence in order to have a low pressure area strengthen (the reason is because if more air flows into a low (convergence) than flows out (divergence), it will "fill up" and dissipate, so more divergence and less convergence is better.
Yeah Michael, that's why I said lower amounts of convergence are needed than upper level divergence.
1009 mb is promising for development. That's quite a bit lower than the ambient pressures. It needs to kick up some convection though.
Guys this tropical wave the came of africa a few days ago shows promise this evening with convection continueing to flare up.This wave will also be moving over warm SST'S in the coming days see here.

You can convection flareing up on IR satellite imagery...SEE LOOP HERE


that would be horrible in this day and time with population on coastlines as it is..it takes so long to start clean up because of mounds of red tape. talk about projectiles! you would have to evac because of prior storm damage on the ground not because a second storm was coming!
yep....persistance is the key.but looks interesting tonight.
JP check out the loop i posted....
not sure but 2004 is still fresh in my mind.
besides FL in 2004, im not sure. maybe never, but hey, i'll bite and say Texas 1898
ah we may see 96L and 97L lol
Florida in 2004...that's what sticks out in my mind without looking the other year up.

Regarding the wave off Africa, there's an equally good chance that it could follow the same fate as that really vigorous wave that moved off at the beginning of the week. Then again, shear is pretty relaxed until about halfway between Africa and South America, though that could shift rapidly.
o.k. group, time for me to retire for the evening..oops..morning..
jp tell your girlfriend good night for me and will see her tomorrow.

good night.
hurricane23, I've also been watching that area tonight. The convection is showing more organization than the typical ITCZ blobs. We still need to see the flare up continue tomorrow.
THAT was interesting . . . my power just went out for about 15 minutes. We had some pretty hefty lightning strikes to the west of us, but no rain so far . . .
jphurricane2006 the 97L would come from on what hurricane is talking about and 96L would come from that 1009mb low night all
(2:05am NHC discussion on current tropical waves)

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ALONG 28W S OF 20N
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN IS MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
Good night everyone lets see what happens tommorow with the tropical wave i pointed out.persistence will be key as far as convection goes.have a wonderful evening.
Well i Gress its just me now
that little guy on the left is what we need to worry about


has this been mentioned tonight? looks like its gonna be a storm for sure.

1068. stormy3
Hello everyone! I got my computor tower fried by lightning today (surge protecter and all). Stood in line for 2 hrs at bestbuy, spent $1200, and just got home in time for the saturday night fights on wu.I AM A HAPPY WOMAN, I DIDN'T MISS A THING!
sorry to hear that stormy, hope you had a surge protector with a warranty
1071. stormy3
new surge protector and new warranty. Needed a new computor anyway, the other one was 6 yr old and i could grow hair faster.
somebody should start documenting the fights on this blog on their own blog so we can all have a good laugh
ya technology moves too darn fast
how bout that blob in the atlantic? i think that'll be a storm soon, was anybody else talking about it on this blog tonight?
shes definitely bubblin
Anyone still up - There was a substantial (~7) Earthquake Near Antarctica this morning, They didnt put up a Tsunami warning.
Just Curious, Who's all From TEXAS??
I guess the Earthquake occurred on Saturday, August 19, 2006 at 11:41:47 PM (EDT) - Eastern Daylight (New York, Toronto) I checked some DART Buoys Didnt see anything yet.
JFLORIDA... any reports of damage ??
Nothing - It was strong for an Atlantic quake though. 6.7 and over is around where tsunamis are generated.
Hey everyone,

Here is why I made the intial post in here tonight calling on ALL of US to PLEASE refrain from personal attacks. It highlights the specifics regarding my refeerence to the mockery of those who post in this blog by another blog continiously (it is THEM who refers to themselves as WE and others as THEY so that's why I used the term "the gang"). Regardless, I hope each of you have a great rest of the weekend.

Most sincerely,
Tony
Convection in the Carribean is really flaring up this morning...
5:30am NHC outlook...Nothing to worry about according to the NHC.might that change in the coming days? lets wait and see.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Pasch must be blind if he doesnt see the most well defined wave of the season in the Atlantic! That one is gonna be our first big one cat 4 or mybe 5
i agree with you 100% g35, this thing looks like it could be a monster, so much so that im dog tired and stayin up to watch it, id be real surprised if it didnt form
i cant believe nobody has been talking about it at all
for the next day its going to churn through <5 knots of shear
there has been one storm this season that looked near this impressive early on, and that was Chris, we'll have to see what the sun does to it
So far the wave in the eastern atlantic seems to be holding on to some convection,lets see if it persists threw out the day.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Story,

Whats the lat. lon. of the wave you are talking about??? thanks in advance.
center is probly somewhere around 8N 33W
almost same location as Chris too when it was there, AND 23 thats what we've been talking about the whole time, get with it
thanks again Story...

And thanks to you too 23... great images gang...
Here is an IR pic of newly formed tropical storm IOKE....




ya this things not going anywhere, its had over an hour of sunlight and it seems to be strengthening
and once again, NHC is nowhere to be found..
1103. IKE
The system in the SW Caribbean is firing up.
1107. IKE
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 5:27 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
and once again, NHC is nowhere to be found..


They don't mention either system. The NHC is puzzling at times...

If you think that's bad...you should have seen the 4:50 AM Weather Channel Update of the tropics...they need to get their act together...it was pitiful. I would hate to be depending on them for any potential trouble spots.
Good Morining Folks: Does anyone want to take a shot at a long range forecast, in the area of next Sunday and Monday? I am starting a roadway base operation this Monday morning, and will reach a critical "cure point" about next Monday. I can tolerate some rain, but not a ton. My location is Tampa Bay area, Florida.
You folks seem to be fairly accurate log term, so anyone want to take a shot at next week?
lol its their jobs to spot these things and people on this blog are right more than they are 90% of the time.
Wont need to worry about the continental united states until late next week if this thing does keep doing what its doing
id say keep updated with the blog and nhc doc, if it forms and heads for florida next monday could be rough for ya
1112. IKE
The CATL wave has promise. If I were NHC OR TWC I would have mentioned that.

The SW Caribbean blob appears to have some spin to it. If I were NHC or TWC I would have mentioned that.

NEITHER ONE WERE! By either source and it's the heart of the season!
this thing could be dead by tomorrow, too early to tell at this point, as of right now though i say look out
theres just way too much going in this storms favor right now, low shear, perfect water temps and room to grow
1115. IKE
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 5:39 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
id say keep updated with the blog and nhc doc, if it forms and heads for florida next monday could be rough for ya


Which wave are you referring to???
about 7-8N 33-34W
he was wondering if tampa bay would be in trouble next monday, which could be a rough time if this thing does form up and head there, but two options that are way too early to tell
this has now surpassed Chris' initial intensity by far
it is august 20th, peak of the season, ladies and gentlemen i think mother nature has started her engine
Do appreciate the input gang, this time of yhe year it's hell to try and guess with the weather. Am I correct that my major concern should be that mess coming off Africa?
is it too far for a recon flight?
1122. IKE
The SW Caribbean...appears there's a spin down there.
yep, once it hits this time of year they just start churning off the coast like fireballs and they dont stop til end of september
1124. IKE
The CATL wave is at least 2-3 days from a recon invest.
are you seeing it at 7-8N too?
looks like its very minimal but starting up
what sw caribbean wave are you talking about?
im seeing one in the central atlantic, no sw caribbean though?? Ike?

Posted By: IKE at 5:36 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
The CATL wave has promise. If I were NHC OR TWC I would have mentioned that.

The SW Caribbean blob appears to have some spin to it. If I were NHC or TWC I would have mentioned that.

NEITHER ONE WERE! By either source and it's the heart of the season!
its building more convection in the middle
ohhhh, alright i see the sw caribbean blob
Does anyone have the GFS model on where the present wave at 33w will be steered.
possibly 2 storms on the way, nhc is asleep
look at the line of thunderstorms in front of the storm, probly will follow that a little further north, this is in Chris' identical spot, could be similar path
i dont think theres a model or a weatherman that is agreeing with us at the moment, as of right now i think they think that A. they are not a threat to form. or B. they just havent seen em yet.
North of the Leewards then? Any chance of through the Windwards and into the Caribbean sea?
As usual the NHC pays little to no attention unless a storm or stronger is nearing the US.
i dont want to guess, im still not totally sure this thing will even come together, but as of right now all i can say is probably north of puerto rico
if not north than dead on into puerto rico
ill be back, we'll see what jeff masters has to say about all this, i dont want to cause a bunch of hype and be wrong
I was more hoping for a storm close to Barbados.
id say barbados might not be in too good of shape of this forms in the next couple days
if i had to pick 2 places i wouldnt wanna be right now, barbados, puerto rico
but then again it could be a slow developer and just give those areas some thunderstorms, we gotta wait and see
Recently Barbados has been like a deflector. We had a stong wave earlier in the season with numerous thunderstorms that split on our doorstep. Part went north and the other south. Never seen that before .
We need this wave to continue on its westward path for another two to three days before forming too soon.
its probably not going to form until it gets around the 10-12N area, sittin around 8N right now, not gonna get enough pull until it does so
I say TD in 3 days tops
1149. ricderr
story...what's it's major influence right now?
Cent. Atlantic Wave



SW Caribbean

what do you mean by influence?
1152. ricderr
what conditions are influencing the storm right now?
<10 knots of shear, high ssts, just needs to be further north, it looks just like chris so far
actually shear has picked up to about 20knots over the past 3 hrs but its close to entering low amounts again
actually that 20 might just be with the storm
1156. ricderr
ok.......the itcz isn't a factor?
what do you think about this mess ricderr?
possibility
give me a 411 on the itcz and how it affects storms if you could please, i can see it is embedded in it but im not sure how it works
The ITCZ is a factor right now at 8N and around 32W.
u all here about TS Ioke in the Central Pacific
what exactly does it do to the wave?
Wrong...I meant 8N and 27W.
so are you saying its not affecting this wave randrewl?
ITCZ convection is kind of a false read on the real convection of a wave. There is a circulation there and no doubt something to watch out for. Just right now what we are seeing is an ITCZ induced convection flare.
1166. ricderr
Link
here's a link storm...morning rand
Bashing the NHC for not calling things as seen on this blog is insane. I, for one, am thankful that they are a lot more cautious with storm classifications. NHC has a responsibility to people's safety and to the economy. I would rather see them NOT classify a system that is borderline and likely to cause no more than your standard tstorm wind and rain. When a system is named and a path is projected - the expense of that decision begins to add up immediately. Local and State storm preparation funds, private business expenses, rising fuel prices, tourism decline...

While there are folks on this blog that obviously know what they are talking about and the discussions do help people learn more - if the NHC used the WU guidelines for assessing storms every resident on the Gulf Coast would have spent their retirement money on high rise hurricane bunkers that they would live in until December and no one would plan a vacation to the beaches.

...get it? We can discuss the tropics without being pompous and suggesting we know better...

-stormy
wow the ITCZ is really helping that one wave fire convection, i think once the storm is strong enough it breaks out, and dies
Morning everybody. Sorry I hopped in in the middle. I had just been checking the ITCZ positions.
you know its the itcz by the line of convection?
1171. ricderr
not a problem rnd...i'm no expert...just happens to be the wave i've been following since he came off africa..i knew a little something about it
I just read this a couple times a day. Anything near these positions is usually influenced.


...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N27W 9N52W 8N61W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 5N29W-10N36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 39W-60W.
Stormy keep your pants on, we're simply stating that not mentioning the fact that there are waves at those 2 particular points is ludacris
and i think id rather have somebody tell me early and be wrong than not say anything at all and give me less time to prepare
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 5:34 AM EST on August 20, 2006.
lol its their jobs to spot these things and people on this blog are right more than they are 90% of the time.


no Story - that isn't ALL you were saying.
its true, i read more intelligent insight on storms on this blog and in earlier fashion than i hear on nhc
and i think numerous people would agree with me
1178. ricderr
story.....i have to agree with him....they mentioned the wave we're talking about on friday...you've been all fired up this morning...and you missed the key element....it's not a big deal....and....amateur forecasting seems to be the makeup of this blog..but i think it's all to easy to bash the nhc..and truth be told..they do a better job consistantly than here
East Atlantic
East Atlantic
Regardless....this wave has a large low pressure area and when conditions improve across the Atl and Carib this one could get going. I'll be keeping an eye on it too. I'm sure the NHC is all too aware.
i never said anybody was smarter than the nhc, im just saying that play things too cautiously quite often, whether or not im right about this storm lets wait and see, keep your pants on stormy, we got a long season ahead of us
look at TS Ioke
Oh my...we all have our panties in a bunch so early on a Sunday morning...
we are all amateurs here merely guessing on which storm will flare up and which wont, its not rocket science, and its not predictable, so nhc, twc, bob from accounting, could all pick out storms pretty similarly
1185. IKE
The SW Caribbean blob seems to be gathering some convection.

Sorry I couldn't answer you Storm...I was away from my computer.
obviously those with training will know a little more, but its just like poker, you may be good and educated at the game, but you can still lose to an amateur quite easily
1187. ricderr
story....stop...i can't laugh any more...LMAO......tell me one thing befeore i pull a muscle...how old?
Good Morning all storm fans, how are all of you today?
So tell me, what is going on with the Florida low? Is it still hanging on? Which way is it heading? It there still a chance for it to survive the crossing and can it get into the gulf? Put
1189. IKE
Posted By: IKE at 7:15 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
The SW Caribbean blob seems to be gathering some convection.

Sorry I couldn't answer you Storm...I was away from my computer.


I meant to say...Sorry I couldn't answer you StoryOfTheHurricance.

Coffee hasn't kicked in yet this morning!
8:05 TWD:


CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST W OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 75W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA ALONG
14N70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC.

The ULL is causing most of this convection in the Western Carib right now. There's also another ITCZ influence happening in that area as well.
ricderr, find me a weatherman thats right 75% of the time and ill show you someone whos full of s***
Story...that would make a great screen name...75% right!
im not trying to say amateurs know more, im just sayiing its a guessing game, its getting blown way out of context, anybody can look at a blob of thunderstorms and say thats going to form if the conditions are right, nhc just waits until they know for sure, we can do it early
lol that would be hilarious
1195. IKE
Randrewl....that ULL in the NW Caribbean is weakening...check the WV loop.
I do review the posts every morning as I enjoy reading other's insight and have learned a lot. Often something is discussed on this blog before NHC makes a mention - don't confuse that with them not being aware. They are aware, they are watching and they have a big responsibility.

This blog educates, enlightens and at times can give you a head start on information not yet released by NHC - all of that is fun for the weather enthusiast!

Sorry, didn't mean to come in here and stir anything up - I just wouldn't want lurkers to get the impression they are better off reacting to this blog vs. NHC

You all have a great day - I'm going to see if I can get the boat on the water before the rain turns this into a movie day.

-stormy
IKE...I saw that. Should be interesting in that area for sure. There's two hot spots right now and besides the CentAtl, the Western Carib is definitely interesting this morning. Gotta see how things sort out there in the next few hours.
Well I just love Bob Breck, He is a very enthusiastic, Funny, and well knowledge, and very informative meteorologist. He has been known to bash the NHC many times and I do believe that he has gotten himself in trouble for many statements he has made against the NHC. It is really funny, because now when he doesn't agree with the NHC, he will bite his tongue and say, "OK I will not go there"
1199. refill
Guys take a look and tell me what you think about the CATL waveLink
1201. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:31 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
IKE...I saw that. Should be interesting in that area for sure. There's two hot spots right now and besides the CentAtl, the Western Carib is definitely interesting this morning. Gotta see how things sort out there in the next few hours.


Plus that TWD talks about a high in the southern Caribbean...that area is troublesome.
good morning all

looks like there is a little more action in the tropics today.I noticed something odd from yesterday though. The 2:05 discussion yesterday afternoon placed a 1010 mb low along the ATL wave @ 16N but now that low has been dropped and we have a new low @ 9N ??.

i know they are aware, i was just messing around, i apologize for anyone I upset, TRUST THE NHC BEFORE YOU TRUST THIS BLOG. I 100% agree. If you want to know if theres a possibility of something forming before the NHC announces it, than read up in here
Somebody tell me why TWC has Mike Sidell positioned on the north shore of Lake Okeechobee? What do they expect....a storm to form over the Lake?
IKE...That's right. The whole area is unsettled.
lol that is a little strange
might be big enough...
kmanislander...NHC has repositioned that low three times now. Interesting.
Thanks for that Story - and, have a great day!
-stormy
hello not staying for long any thing new?
i feel violated, damn the itcz
randrewl

It would certainly seem so. Unfortunately the latest repositioning, if correct, makes the wave much more of a long term threat to the Islands given the current low latitude of the low center. This bears serious watching especially if it gets its act together late around 45 or 50W. The stronger a system is far out in the ATL the more likely it is to pull up to the N

kman
so a storm embedded in the itcz tends not to intensify and is only as good as the itcz convection is what you guys are saying?
kmanislander...Absolutely! We're all watching as well.
itcz or not, i still say this thing is formin
StoryOfTheHurricane ..Pretty much. It's not a situation of a strengthening system.
I think the NHC does a good job. They've got a job I wouldn't want. We can guess, speculate, prognosticate and copitulate and if we're wrong...who cares, it's just a blog. They've got a tremendous responsibility as hundreds, if not thousands of municipalities and governmental agencies, as well as the general public are looking to them as the final say.

As far as "classifying" a blob or discussing a potential wave, I think they have to be concerned with the "crying wolf" syndrome. It would be a different story if either one of the blobs in consideration were sitting in the Bay of Campeche. As far as needing to be prepared...that should have been completed June 1st.

I know there are various levels of knowledge and weather savy here on WU, but the vast majority want to pull the trigger on something developing, whereas the NHC seems to err more on the side of caution. (I speak in broad generalities here). Good grief, if the decisions were left up to the consensus of WU "forecasters", half of the U.S. coastal population would have been evacuated for Alberto, Beryl, Chris as well as half the blobs that have come within 500 miles of the coast.

Those are just some of my thoughts on the conversations circulating this AM on WU.
Here's the RGB shot.


I ran a WV loop of the Caribbean and there is much more moisture pushing up from the S into the NW Caribbean today than yesterday afternoon. In fact it would seem that the ULL has weakened some and is starting a retreat which could open the door for development. If the convection down S persists into tomorrow and the ULL pulls away or weakens further development is a strong possibility. The GFS has shear way down in that region from late tomorrow
1221. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 7:55 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
I ran a WV loop of the Caribbean and there is much more moisture pushing up from the S into the NW Caribbean today than yesterday afternoon. In fact it would seem that the ULL has weakened some and is starting a retreat which could open the door for development. If the convection down S persists into tomorrow and the ULL pulls away or weakens further development is a strong possibility. The GFS has shear way down in that region from late tomorrow


Do you live in the Cayman Islands???

If so, I'd be watching that system.
Ike

I do live in The Caymans and I am watching I can assure you. Anything that forms there would most likely come up to the NW into or close to the South coast of Grand Cayman and my home is only 500 feet in from the beach on the S coast !!
which storm do u guys think is forming i am doing 2 things at once
WPBHurricane05..Personally, I'm watching the Western Carib. But if I lived in the Windwards I would be keeping close attention the the wave at 10 and 30.
1225. IKE
Hmmm...hopefully it will move inland.

Pressures down there are fairly low...I checked Nicaragua and Honduras...pressures are 29.80 to 29.86.
1226. IKE
Seems to be a spin/turn...at about 14N, 82W.
ok is the western carib. one because of the ITCZ??

and thank you
luker and like it that way. I know alot of you dont put much stock in forecast models, but, according to Dr Masters, if 2 or more predict you may want to be aware. GFS, MM5FSU, NOGAPS all show the wave off Africa producing something and MM5FSU has something big in the GOM in the next few days. Havent heard it mentioned so thought I would.
we will know by tonight whether something is brewing down S or not. It will be interesting to see Dr.M's take on things today
Morning ya'll

I agree Rand, the E/Cent Atl is about ready to bust. Both the Nogaps and the GFS from two systems in this area over the next week. Not certain one of these two will make it, but I think this hints at how active the CV season will be.
i rely on nhc more than anything else, from satellites to outlooks, but since weather is so unpredictable any prediction should be taken with a grain of salt bc anything could happen, and as for on here, when you have several different opinions, while only 1 being right, that one right one isnt always what nhc and everyone else thought would happen, and any warning should be taken seriously bc they are meant with good intentions
WPBHurricane05...There is an ITCZ influence there right now. Also there is a low forming up in the Pacific down there....lot of disturbed weather. Just an area to watch. I need to see how things shape up after noon today.
and thats all i have to say about that.
1234. IKE
Posted By: CatWatchOne at 8:09 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
luker and like it that way. I know alot of you dont put much stock in forecast models, but, according to Dr Masters, if 2 or more predict you may want to be aware. GFS, MM5FSU, NOGAPS all show the wave off Africa producing something and MM5FSU has something big in the GOM in the next few days. Havent heard it mentioned so thought I would.


I mentioned last night about the MM5FSu and NOGAPS having a gulf of Mexico storm in 5-6 days and was advised by someone to not rely on models that far out.

Hey...I was just relaying what these models were saying!
Well said.....StoryOfTheHurricane!
lol CWO ;)

I think the area that is in the W Carib that Rand is watching is what the MM5 puts in the Gulf. The GFS did want to do this, but has since backed off.

Take a look at the Genisis chart. Does not give the W Carib much, but that also does not mean much.
Good morning SJ!
Convection continues to fire in the SW Caribbean. Looking at the WV loop, I don't see anything impeding development. A few minutes ago, Steve Lyons said that upper level winds weren't favorable for development. What is he referring to?
1239. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 8:16 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
Convection continues to fire in the SW Caribbean. Looking at the WV loop, I don't see anything impeding development. A few minutes ago, Steve Lyons said that upper level winds weren't favorable for development. What is he referring to?


Not sure..according to Tropical Weather discussion at 8:05 AM there is a high in the southern Caribbean.

Anyone have a reliable shear map they can link??
SWLA It looks like that area int he SW Carib is under 20 to 30kts of shear which is not conducive for development. Check here
Ike

there is a bit of a spin near 14N82W but that might be more in the upper levels. I would expect any low that develops to form in or near the deep convection further E. I have seen low centers jump around to wherever convection is strongest in the early stages of development. Lets hope your position is right though !
Ike....a reliable shear map? What's that?
this is the strangest hurricane season i have ever witnessed
lol Rand :)
1245. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 8:20 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
Ike....a reliable shear map? What's that?


I understand.

SJ....that shear map link is at 0900UTC..isn't that 4-5 hours ago???
there certainly doesn't seem to be anywhere near 20 or 30 knots of shear below the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The convection would not be hanging together like it is if there was
1247. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 8:20 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
Ike

there is a bit of a spin near 14N82W but that might be more in the upper levels. I would expect any low that develops to form in or near the deep convection further E. I have seen low centers jump around to wherever convection is strongest in the early stages of development. Lets hope your position is right though !


You may be right...I admit, I'm no expert. That convection looks more impressive each updated frame...ugh...you may have some rain headed your way.
1248. IKE
There was a ULL NNW of there yesterday...easily visible on WV...but it's fading away as we type....or looks it to me.
Yes, Ike it is a few hours hold, there will be another one out soon. THe best way to identify shear is with the imagery if you want real time. I still see shear on the N side of the big blob.
Ike...just keep watching the WV loop. You'll find all the shear factors right there.
ok we have witnessed to record breaking seasons in a row:
2005-Most Named Storms
2006-Least Named Storms (shear)
No question that the convection is increasing. What we have to watch for is persistence over the next 12 to 24 hrs and for what happens to the ULL

bb soon. Coffee time
Sorry SJ....
their have been seasons ith less storms
Sorry bout what Rand?
1256. GoofOff
I enjoyed lurking on the blog last night. Lots of insults and other statements with little or no basis in fact. Thought of the times my cousins, sisters and I would be out in the yard arguing and my grandmother would come out and say "Children, play nice." And the doom and gloom group were like our first TV. We were about 100 miles from the transmitting tower and would see snow most of the time but get excited when it looked like something on the screen was moving and could have been a human being. We do that now with blobs. Technology is a wonderful thing. All things considered, the weather will do whatever it feels like.
i know just sounds good
Sorry bout what Rand? I posted the same thing after you did. LOL
ahhh the wonder of cyberspace where no one has to be quite and we all get to talk whenever we want :)

It's all good Rand happens all the time. The best is when you post something and someone post the exact opposite at the same time...lol You know you are in for a good debate then...
someone post the exact opposite at the same time...lol You know you are in for a good debate then...
That's always fun!
Caribbean Morning Discussion
The upper level low in the NW Caribbean Sea has become broad and ill-defined, seen on water vapor imagery.

Upper level Low moving into the North Atlantic. This was the low seen spinning NE of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday/Thursday.

There is appears to be an upper level anticyclone near the Colombian/Venezuelan coastal border, creating ridging in the upper levels, from Honduras, through the Caribbean Sea and the Lesser Antilles, and finally into the Atlantic.

Showers/thunderstorms has increase along this ridge, due to the two ULLs, but has become more concentrated to an area East of Nicaragua.

Showers and thunderstorms has increase this morning with an area East of Nicaragua. Quicksat pass overnight revealed some areas of 15-20knot winds, but no apparent circulation.

However, this morning visible imagery showed, showers concentrating around a center.

Wind Shear is still unfavorable, but has been slackening off gradually, since this time on Saturday.

Currently it appears the area is moving west to west north west, but that might change to NW.

Sea Surface Temps in the South Caribbean Sea are running around 80 degrees.

The closest buoy reading, I could find near the disturbed area was drifting buoy 42057;
located 16N/82W, just north-east of it. It measured a sea level pressure of 1011.9mbars, and winds of 15knots from the ENE.

The area will be watch for development.
Good morning everyone another hot and sultry day in the north Gulf region. I am shure we will have our regular seabreeze activateded Thunder showers later today.
looks like Miami is hogging all the rain today, when is it gonna be WPB's turn

hope you guys in the N. Gulf dont go like Korea and pray for a Typhoon to bring down temperatures
I dont think so WP the prayers got answered last year. LOL
1265. aardan
I've decided to argue with myself about the weather today. The argument is going to get so nasty that my wife will have to intervene. In th eend, I'll apologize to myself and thank my wife for the remedial mediation.
Good Morning All,

Sandcrab, same observations here along the S.Carolina coast.Plenty of heat,and enough humidity to wilt a statue..
LMAO aardan...
I understand seafarer we wear swimming trunks to go outside the humity is so high.lol
1269. aardan
Now I am going to publicly chastise myself for failing to proofread my previous blog entry.

"Pay more attention to the keys you hit while you hunt and peck out your sorry drivel you ignoramous moron."

I feel better now. Was it good for you?
1270. GoofOff
Aardan, my wife is not speaking to me at the moment. I had a colonoscopy last week and told my wife that she had to go to the dentist so he could replace all the teeth the doctor removed from my rear end. She did not see any humor in that. As a matter of fact, I think she replaced some of the teeth that had been removed. LOL
I sure hate to say it, but I have to cut the grass today. It is too hot!
Ioke Intensity at 8:30amEDT

Curved Band Pattern
> .3 Spiral - DT 1.4

Shear Pattern
None - 0.00

CDO
-CDO Central Feature

0.8 degrees latitude- DT 1.5

-CDO Banding Features

1 degrees -DT 1

Further Considerations (environmental factors)
None

Ioke T Number is 1.4+1.5+1=3.9

3.9 is 73.6mph, 989mbar MCP.

(This is not official) This was my result after apply the Dvorak technique to the current storm.

This one of the Imagery I used:
Morning 459

93 should still produce some onshore flow for us today with the potential for some afternoon showers. 93 moved inlad a good piece last night. It is pretty dang cute just spinning right over S GA....lol
1274. aardan
GoofOff, you had to go and tell me, didn't you. I won't be able to sit down for an hour.

Ouch.
SJ I shure hope so... I have yet to check the satellite images.. We could use the rain..
1276. GoofOff
456, I like what you are doing. It appears you are working on a matrix that gives values to various items in an image. Your estimates so far seem to be pretty much on track. Keep up the good work. (and tell the government to send you a check for the gas money because you are just as accurate as they are with the flights.)
Good morning all,

just got up (yawn), whats the latest in the tropics?

my sat. dish is working now, couldnt get a signal most of the night, that happens when theres lots of electrical activity to our west.
i this got up as well
GoofOff, thank You very much....Actually, thats Dvorak Technique, I'm using....
morning all, carribean wave looks way more impressive this moring, i'm thinking depression by tonight or tomorrow- any thoghts???
Well the tropics have gotten a little more active today. I see 3 disturbances out there. More information can be found on the

Tropical Weather Round-Up
nawlinsdude, If you mean north of Panama, Its not a wave, but it looks more organized than yesterday.
1283. aardan
There is circulation in a mass just south of the eastern part of Cuba. After it speeds through the mainland, it will slow, turn northwest and become a tropical storm. Wednesday morning it will slam into southern Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.

Heh, where'd you come up with that, aardan? Burning bush revelation, your dead great aunt, someone at Roswell?? The only thing worth watching in the Caribean is the monter forming east of Nicaragua, nincompoop. Watch out Tampa. Thursday night's going to be harrowing. Pack up and leave before it's too late. I'm flying out this afternoon.
1284. aardan
Hello
Link
All its going to take is some convection around a center and that baby's rolling
yeah weather thats the one a mean- sorry thought it was a wave- blob more appropriate?
1288. IKE
kmanislander...you may be right in a formation further east of what I was saying with the Caribbean blob.
aardon - you are cracking me up - has your wife come in to settle the argument yet?
1290. IKE
About 13N, 79W.........
Guys good morning...I think the switch has been turned on across the atlantic.we have to wait and see but things are getting active.I'll be back later.
wow


wow



what all think about this wave?
Ioke Intensity (Revised)

Curved Band Pattern
> .3 Spiral - DT 1.4

Shear Pattern
None - 0.00

CDO
-CDO Central Feature

0.8 degrees latitude- DT 1.3

-CDO Banding Features

1 degrees -DT 1

Further Considerations (environmental factors)
None

Ioke T Number is 1.4+1.3+1=3.7

3.7 is 71mph, 989mbar MCP.

(This is not official) This was my result after apply the Dvorak technique to the current storm.
1294. Ldog74
Which one taz?
1295. IKE
Geez...nice pictures TAZ...what a blowup!
There are couple of waves seen in the Atlantic this morning, but they are along the ITCZ. These will be watch incase the break off and sustain themselves.
looks like one formed over Africa
ike u said last night it would be interesting to see it in the morning- so whats your take?
good morning everyone..
looks like the tropics are flaring up just like the folks in here! lol
looks good for one of the "blobs" to evolve further next few days.. will appreciate ya'll keeping me informed!
1300. IKE
Posted By: nawlinsdude at 9:35 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
ike u said last night it would be interesting to see it in the morning- so whats your take?


Definitely has potential....

Curious if Dr. Masters finally mentions it.
Hi guys long time no see... How is everyone this morning?? Looks like we've got some activity out there eh?? The blow up just north of South America looks very impressive currently. Will be interested in watching that one.
look at TWC interactive hurricane tracker
: IKE yes it is if any thing going to be 96L it going to be that one
1304. aardan
She distracted me with lunch plans. Mackerel jambalaya. I'll add some of my homemade habenero pepper sauce and I'll be good to go.

If the airforce would carpet bomb the ocean near the African coast, it might block the flow of that pesky saharan dry air. Why don't they just irrigate the desert and get on with it? There's lots of water in the ocean. It's like, almost all water (I realize there are fish out there but they don't take up that much of the ocean's volume).

More arable land is good, right?
Ike

I agree that 13 or 14N and 79W would be likely candidates for a low center to form. Sometimes you get an early hint of one by a hi res visible showing thin streamers flowing in to a thunderstorm complex by the SE quad. If you look at the GHCC 1km vis on the hi setting near 13/14N just to the SE you will see what I mean. Gotta learn to attach links. LOL
1306. IKE
Can you link me?
aardan,

habanero...the cat5 of the pepper world...
Is that blob thingie in the Carribean an official Invest yet?
Good morning Kmanislander;

does that blob (future 96L) show any direction?
Tampa, I don't think so.
when's dr.m usually update?- has to be soon
Are any of the models developing the carribean blob? If so, where do they take it?
Thanx in advance.
ok thanks JP, do u know why they classified over land??
1316. IKE
Posted By: nawlinsdude at 9:49 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
when's dr.m usually update?- has to be soon


He usually updates by 9AM CDST...he's running late.
Pensacola the last time I looked at the models about 3 hours ago none of them developed anything from down there at all. They keep developing 1 or 2 storms in the atlantic but nothing north of south america in the caribbean.
Not yet Tampa, there is still a good bit of shear just to the N of it. You can always check the NRL Topical site to see if an invest has been issued.

You can find that link and a lot more on the StormJunkie.com Quick Links page.
Hi Caymanguy

It just seems to be meandering around for a bit.
The ULL off the west coast of Jamaica will keep it down there for a while but if the ULL lifts out or weakens significantly I would expect a WNW to NW drift initially
To follow up on my comment...According to Dr. M in the above area, he mentions that if none of the models develop it then watch out for it....
Steve from Accuweather.com's video on the tropics for today said there is nothing forming anytime soon...or at least that is what I understood him to say...who knows...
Disturbed Weather in the Caribbean
The upper level low in the NW Caribbean Sea has become broad and ill-defined, seen on water vapor imagery.

Upper level Low moving into the North Atlantic. This was the low seen spinning NE of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday/Thursday.

There is appears to be an upper level anticyclone near the Colombian/Venezuelan coastal border, creating ridging in the upper levels, from Honduras, through the Caribbean Sea and the Lesser Antilles, and finally into the Atlantic.

Showers/thunderstorms has increase along this ridge, due to the two ULLs, but has become more concentrated to an area East of Nicaragua.

Showers and thunderstorms has increase this morning with an area East of Nicaragua. Quicksat pass overnight revealed some areas of 15-20knot winds, but no apparent circulation.

However, this morning visible imagery showed, showers concentrating around a center.

Wind Shear is still unfavorable, but has been slackening off gradually, since this time on Saturday.

Currently it appears the area is moving west to west north west, but that might change to NW.

Sea Surface Temps in the South Caribbean Sea are running around 80 degrees.

The closest buoy reading, I could find near the disturbed area was drifting buoy 42057;
located 16N/82W, just north-east of it. It measured a sea level pressure of 1011.9mbars, and winds of 15knots from the ENE.

The area will be watch for development.
Doug it looks like the Nogaps is the only one developing it right now, and it keeps it fairly week. FSU model site. Set the field to 850mb vorticity and then hit submit on the model you want to view. Use the forward button on the left.
Ike,

Sorry about the link. Don't know what happened.
Its http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Hope this works

kman
1327. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 9:56 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
umm....I dont see the ULL that was in the caribbean in the WV loop


I don't either.
thanks Kman,

that ull the same one from yesterday?

looks weaker today.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:56 AM AST on August 20, 2006.
umm....I dont see the ULL that was in the caribbean in the WV loop


JP, its still there, but it has become broad, and ill-define. I Have a feeling its waning, or at least working down to low levels.....
jp, what do you make of that?
A theoretical question to all here..

If a body of water,the size of one of the great lakes,was situated in the south..And a system like 93l squatted over this body of water..Could said system draw energy from the lake.And intensify???
It is definitely weaker. Yesterday afternoon the WV loop showed hardly any moisture N of 15 but today is a different story

The ULL seems to be drifting off to the NE real slowly. I would guess its center is just off the W tip of Ja. whereas yesterday it was sitting almost on top of us S and W

i fell like im in a hurricane, its cloudy and rainy all around except above me, its sunny, strong breeze, guess im in the eye
I looked at the 850 NOGAPS. It looks like it loses it then finds and developes it just below Pcola. Then it brings it onshore in the P'cola area. Am I reading it correctly?
1338. nash28
Hey guys. Latest GFS run has a couple of storms in the Atlantic late in the period.
Just remember, wind shear and dust. No worries, at least not immediate. Wind shear and dust- that's my forecast for today. Boring since we're 3 weeks into August.
If the shear was not so high 459. It could still cause some storms to fire, but the shear is so high it could not really strengthen any.

Thanks SJ,
It was something I was wondering...
Sounds good Doug, now look at the other models and see if you can find a consensus.

The GFS is very interesting late int he forecast periods with two storms very near each other. Not to confident with any of the genisis performance from any of the models though.
OMG i just felt a rain drop when i went out side S. East Fl. residents relief is on the way!!
Good morning all.

Question to all of you in hurricane alley.

The east side of my home has a covered porch area with 8 large windows and vinyl siding which makes boarding difficult at best. This side of the house borders a pasture and is unprotected and got absolutely hammered during Rita. We are considering Armor Screen to protect this porch area in the future.

Does anyone use this system and do you have any thoughts regarding?

Sincere thanks for any replies.
jp, shear over 93L is 20kts? where are you getting that?

And 20kts is still a little high.
1349. KS4EC
seafarer 459
I bnelieve so, look at Wilma as it passed over Lake Okeechobee. There was a dramatic increase on the west side. THat said, there where also several other factors that aided developement, like a cold front just to the north. But trust me the west side of that storm sam ALOT worse than the East side.

I know I was fine for the east side but lost half of our roof to the west side.


I agree that the ULL now seems quite broad. I just ran a hi res WV loop and the ULL seems to be between the NW coast of Ja and the SE coast of Cuba. If so it would be moving off to the NE as compared to its position yesterday. This would open the door for development in the S Caribbean but I have seen big blow ups come and go. Any persistence in the convection for the next 12 to 24 hrs would not be a good sign
Good Morning All,

New Blog up.
1352. IKE
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 20, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin




The NHC mentions nothing. I don't get it..but their the pros.
swlaaggie i completly lost my porch in a weak cat. 2, although my neighbor went through 2 3's and 1 cat 2, and looks brand new, i think he has the armor screen
1354. IADCW
Hi guys - Sir Lurks-A-Lot here. If you use the drop down boxes on the forcast models and use different settings, you get different results.(DUH)Is one setting more acurate than another? or do any of you weather wiz kids know? I'll go back to lurking now.
that must have been hard for the NHC to type,

Hector downgraded to a TS
let me edit:
1. TWO must have been hard for the NHC to type

2. Hurricane Hector now a strong TS
Thank You KS4EC..

It just seemed plausable,that a systen sitting over a body of warm water,could draw energy from that water...
new blog