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Isaac races through Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:37 PM GMT on October 02, 2006

Hurricane Isaac is racing towards the southeast corner of Newfoundland at 35 mph, and will bring winds near hurricane force to the island today. Already this morning, winds have reached 36 mph with higher gusts at Sagona Island, Newfoundland. Sagona Island saw sustained winds of 76 mph gusting to 93 during the passage of the extratropical version of Hurricane Florence on September 13. Isaac's impact on Newfoundland will probably be similar to that of Florence, which destroyed one home and caused scattered power outages and minor damage. A 2-3 foot storm surge and 2-3 inches of rain are likely from Isaac.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Isaac, updated every 1/2 hour.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An non-tropical low pressure system has formed near 30N 30W, about 500 miles south of the Azores Islands. This low may gradually acquire tropical characteristics over the next few days as it drifts southwestward over warmer waters.

The computer models are indicating some development is possible by Thursday in the region between the Bahamas and Bermuda, along an old cold front. Any development here would probably move northeast out to sea, and could be a threat to Bermuda.

I'll haven't had a chance to finish my October tropical outlook, but hope to post that Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

..posted as seen here..but over there in his Blog..LOL!
Very big indeed.
well going next door for sugar I will be back in a little while...

more like a few hours if you know what I mean...


Taco:0)
indecent? proposals? I thought it was normal ego .lol
My 13 yr old son is a Guitar prodigy..and piano ..and trumpet,..me..Im good at turning the amps ups..LOL!Link..heres ..The Ocean
Remember 27 I will always be yours


Taco:0)
Yeah Taco......making me stand in line...
Ok nite all gonna go this time.
I'm off as well.....but not for sugar.

My St. Bernard is chewing on my three yr old son. I guess I better save him.
What no takers? you dont like Bequai?? well I guess we could try Omaha or Peoria then. Shees, you are all so hard to cater for........
Just incase your wondering, what I said is true.
wow I was away all day from the blog and there was more action here than all hurricane season !!

I guess what they say is true-- in life timing is everything LOL
I still have a sence of humor.. sometimes me and my dad make jokes about the issue. Probably wrong to do so, but it gets me through it.
wishboy, i feel ya man, had to walk a while in them kinda shoes too.
no fun, but prayer can change alot.
ok the navy site now have 98L has 35kt up from 30kt so this would now make 98L a sub TS
PLEASE confine your remarks to the subject of the blog.
Posted By: CalvinSimonds at 9:55 PM EDT on October 02, 2006.

PLEASE confine your remarks to the subject of the blog.


Which is?
man whats happening here ??
8:05
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N37W TO 20N50W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W...CUTTING ACROSS THE
CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W SOUTH
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS GOES FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N72W BEYOND 32N67W. THE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH IS HEAVILY LADEN IN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. IT IS GOING UP AGAINST A RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...

MT
skyepony

you want to talk weather ??
Posted By: kmanislander at 7:04 PM PDT on October 02, 2006.

skyepony

you want to talk weather ??


yes i do taz
Taz~ Probibly good thing. Could you imagine what what go on here with us using the term STD tonight.
This is the weather blog... When I chat I go to another blog. I hang out in whitewabit's blog alot.
Skyepony we could have a STS tonight
skyepony and Taz

I got here late tonight and weather was not the topic !
I think we might have Sub-tropical Storm Joyce in the next day or two.NRL has 98L @ 35kts now.

Here is 2 diffrerent visibles pics on 98L...



Here is an Infrared image of what might be Sub-Tropical Storm Joyce in the makeing.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
does this map spell the end of hurricane season for 06 ?

Link
Green..Caution..Link
westerlies are everywhere and early
Patrap

help !!
Rand..

Picture mail
By Order of THE RCMP..Link
Depends on what shear map you look at & how far ahead...
kmanislander there is now strong westerly shear from the central atlantic to the eastern atlantic.Anything that trys to form out there will get ripped to shreads.The only areas i see for possible development and thats a big if, are the GOM and the western caribbean which are the usual areas to watch in october.Conditions that took over the atlantic basin in 05 were onces we may not see for a very very long time. Adrian
patrap

LMAO !!
Its allright wishcasterLinkboy..This happens to me after November 30th every year...
hurricane 23

Is there anything to suggest that we may see a relaxing of the current trend in mid to late Oct when the fronts drop down into the NW Caribbean or is this likely to be the pattern for the rest of the season?
no crowd left here now
kmanislander conditions across the gulf of mexico and the caribbean will depend alot on the progression of el nino.Right now high pressure at the surface and aloft should keep areas close to home fairly quiet for the next couple of days.I think significant development in areas like the central atlantic and the eastern atlantic in my opinion are not likely.

By the way if youre interested in the 10:30 outlook from the NHC on 98L here it is.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM COULD SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES VERY
LITTLE...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
Thats not much of a brainbuster, it's way out at see and thats were it should stay.
hurricane 23

After the ganbusteryear in 05 a near normal season seems so very very quiet.

I still wonder if this season may not hold a late season surprise. It only takes a 7 day window of opportunity for something serious to wind up
...98L is where? at about 30N, 30W? Is this something we should really watch...thought there was too much shear right now.
What you talkin about moonlight?
well gnite all

maybe there will be a blob or something to watch tomorrow

have a good one
...later, kman.


kmanislanderThats very true.I always try to tell people its not how many storms that form that matters its how many make landfall that has the biggest impact.To be honest i feel very lucky to have lived threw most incredible hurricane season ever in 05.To this day i remember staying up all night with wilma and i could not believe what recon was reporting inside wilma.

My jaw dropped when i read this discussion at 5am that morning on october19!

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
u 2 moonlight
hurricane 23

don't forget Mitch, an October surprise !
see you all tomorrow
I just emailed u my message...But i guess u saw it.How can i forget about that monster that killed so many people down there.
Hurricane Mitch,,click to enlargeLink
looks like if 98l does form it will go north am i correct ?
right now the pros are saying w to wsw...but who knows...probally the worst this system will do is affect the azores as a minimal tropical storm
GFS model run..Link
570. HCW
What are ya'll thoughts on 98L ? Very few model runs are out on this system .


Link
Yes strombil it should track N than NE.98L may also acquire some tropical characteristics in the next day or two acording to the NHC tonight.Iam not expecting sinificant development from this system as over all conditions will not allow for such to take place.
HCW I think we might have Sub-tropical Storm Joyce in the next day or two out of 98L.Maybe a threat to the azores.After 98L i think thats about it for the eastern atlantic as anything that moves of the african coast will likely be ripped apart by strong westerly shear.
The Carribean could prove me wrong, but my gut tells me this season is pretty much ova.
...RayBo, you may be right, but it only takes one to raise its big ugly head...lol
I'm already in winter mode, good nite guys!
Good morning,

5:30 EDT in Nassau finds heavy downpours w/ winds variable. Looks like that front which passed us on Sunday is just going to hang around. I kinda like it because it keeps the daytime temps down a bit.

I also like the way things seem pretty quiet for now. Still watching the SW Caribbean.

Have a great day!
577. 882MB
Hi ya im only here for a couple of minutes i have to go. Everything looks quiet but im also keeping an eye on the sw carribean and around bermuda.
H23, didn't you say yesterday that you were expecting another 1-3 systems??????
hey 23...that westerly shear..is it that the shear is moving west..or the shear is to the west...or the shear has a six gun?
Good morning guys.
Morning all.
Morning Rand.
Good Morning All......I'll just lurk today as it seems that things are quiet close to the US with the exception of the "clusters" of regular thunderstorms around Cuba/Hipaniola/Jamaica..While they can probably be classified as front remnants given their location, I would think that none of the models have shown an interest in this area at this point or NHC would have memtioned possible development in their brief discussion on this area....
morning to all

Heard any mention of a low forming off the NC coast this weekend? Local met was talking about it... should stay off coast but strong high in Ohio valley could set up a tight pressure gradient causing 30-35 mph winds at the coast(possible beach erosion). Also mentioned that those strong NE winds could steer low closer to coast... Haven't really heard this anywhere else.

Guess it's good that this is all we have to talk about after last year...

Viva el nino!
Floodie
It's "bewy quiet" here this morning....
morning all! :)




Looks there is some "disturbed" weather NE of SA..... the shear has been incredible, but wil be interesting to see if these "waves" hold together and enter the carribean......

westcasting? oh well, what the hades! LOL

would seem like fizzle could be the word here! :)
LOL. Here is my blog I just updated floodzone...Link You were reading my mind!!
590. PBG00
Mornin all
hey Rand..... we looking at maybe a hatteras storm here??

looks like it forms around hatteras and gets shoved sw down the coast! LOL

guess we'll have to see the next couple model runs..... :)
sw down the coast! ...and crashes into florida...as what...cat 3..cat 4...would the westerly shear rip it apart.....does it have an eye yet?......things are too quiet around here...we need some havoc.....havoc i say....
sprinklebottom
I'd advise anyone looking for a tan this weekend to avoid the OBX...

And if you want to take pictures on the beach, I'd advise against THAT also... unless you're Jimmy Johnson (that hair is rated for Cat. 3).

Floodie

P.S. Yes, weatherguy03, you can have the brain until lunchtime- then I'll need it back to teach my physics class. See? Sharing DOES work!!
Ricderr, I know it's a tad early but...

I DO think I see an eye...

Floodie

P.S. Someone wake up Taz!
596. HCW
Why are there no model runs on 98L
HARDCOREWEATHER.COM

Link
re:"looks like it forms around hatteras and gets shoved sw down the coast! LOL"

hey all, thelmores, you ARE allowed to draw things on your maps, but you are NOT allowed to say the we*#$&) thingy.....jo
hey there momma jo......feel the breeze...it's coming.....wshhhhhhhh.....wshhhhhhhhh.....let run now...LOL
ricderr...
mail call
Yawns....
One thing about this season- if storms form and go against the norm, nc is the spot it will happen.
Don't wake up Taz- the little tyke needs his sleep. He just gets so damn excited about this tropical weather stuff it wipes him out!
Thanks for the laugh Ric.
Guys...physics question at 11:00 am sharp....no ric you only think you know the answer.
modified
actually gator...a friend walked in the office...said i was a bit off.....i had the general idea...but he gave me the specifics..so now..i can probably do better..but i've cheated
Crap Gator, I am in a meeting at 11am.
Ric- was that comment for me? (Regarding Taz and the whole foot in mouth thing).

My comment wasn't made to insult him. He has become quite endearing AND educational to me the past few months.
I, for one, appreciate his presence greatly.
I thought it might be good to have a "before" photo of the OBX. The great 2006 OBX storm might change the coastline.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


actually it was utah...and if i misinterpreted..you have my most sincere apologies
OK Nash- what is a better time? I will work around your schedule...
hmmm...rand..so buy coastal property in asheville?.....
mmmm. ricderr taking foot out of mouth...that must hurt.
Well, my late morning and early afternoon is pretty slammed. You can send it to me in email and I will work it WITHOUT checking the blog to make it fair.
that's waht i get for talking about feet in mouth...thank god for listerine
Yeah Storm....not a good weekend to work on your tan.
All of the shear is coming from king kongs fart
Wow..lots of thinking going on...Hint..think thermodynamics.
eeeewwwww eeeeeew... mr cotter....mr cotter i know the answer.....just call me horseshack
Why are there no model runs on 98L

Do you really have to ask why??..LOL
ok ric..mail me your revised answer.
Maybe Dr. Masters can send me his best guess...as no one as of yet has gotten the answer.
why are you guys talking about the outer banks? i just got here
I have to go for now....be back at 11 to check my mail....keep thinking...its not that hard..just common sense.
Wrong. ..storm W try again...your almost there.
Gator

I am not sure if the mail went through to you or not. Regardless. I vote that they will never fall.
Gatorx, you have mail!
New blog is up..
Mornin all. my little prayer for the day
Please send a storm for my friends, they sound like they are all losing it, grasping at toothpics and stuff
Back later..........