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Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite image that Drak posted is very, very helpful on determining where the center is going as it automatically tracks the center to keep it exactly in frame. Heading WNW at this time, away from Cuba. On track per NHC.
Link
There we go, that's a lot better. Thanks Cybr/Drak.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite image that Drak posted is very, very helpful on determining where the center is going as it automatically tracks the center to keep it exactly in frame. Heading WNW at this time, away from Cuba. On track per NHC.
Link


Very nice link. You can really tell his movement in that one. Right in line with NHC.
I would say slightly eastward ajustment, it came of cuba early, giving it more time to strengthen, and be pulled north earlier
Quoting Levi32:


They are trying hard. 998mb is the new extrapolated pressure minimum.

Looking at all the recon info thus far winds have not been above 50 Mph based on what i have seen
Quoting Methurricanes:
I would say slightly eastward ajustment, it came of cuba early, giving it more time to strengthen, and be pulled north earlier


thats my thought, plus, just as many of the major models shifted eastward, then did shift west; actually if you take out the Bamm suite, more shifted east then west
I see some models jumped west....dunno how far west isaac would track in gulf...im thinkin somewherre from mobile to apalachicola myself
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup take in at 21N 75W


thats were "my" next forecast piont is lol
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.
2009. SykKid
97L going fishing
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
New Iberia, LA here. I'm worried, but not for myself. I'm paying close attention for my family in Chalmette. They're too close to uncertainty right now for me to breath a sigh of relief. I remember how Katrina kept shifting further and further west with each advisory, until they were essentially in the crosshairs. Seems like we'll have a day or two to figure out if they're coming over for a visit.


Nola here - definitely watching. Prepared but watching. To add to the worry, both of my sons are in Pensacola, plus three grandbabies and my mother. Sister in Pascagoula. Weekend house in Gautier. Magic 8-ball says I'm going to be working my butt off in the heat next week no matter where it hits.
Can someone explain why it is supposed to be Cat 2 then fall off to Cat 1 at landfall somewhere in the northern gulf. What makes it fall off?
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Looking at all the recon info thus far winds have not been above 50 Mph based on what i have seen
thats because they can not sample all the storm, the center is too close to Cuba
recon found 997.7mb


997.7 mb
(~ 29.46 inHg)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There we go, that's a lot better. Thanks Cybr/Drak.


21n 75w u agree?
Center appears to be about 20-30 miles north of Cuba at this time.
Quoting GeauxGirl:


That's what I see too. I was about to breathe a sigh of relief, and then GFS pulled a "psyche!". Could you explain the trough and what's pulling this thing westward?


High pressure is building in from the north and east causing Isaac to move on a WNW motion currently. Friction with Cuba could also be helping to keep it closer to shore. The speed of Isaac and the trough coming from the Western US will ultimately determine where he begins to curve north into the Gulf Coast. Strength of Isaac will probably play a bit of a role as well. HWRF bombs Isaac into a 945mb hurricane on the West Coast of FL and thus he makes landfall in the Big Bend. I see that as unrealistic at this point.
2017. wn1995
Quoting Civicane49:


That is a good view... looks like it is finally JUST offshore.
2018. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


thats my thought, plus, just as many of the major models shifted eastward, then did shift west; actually if you take out the Bamm suite, more shifted east then west


BAM suite is initialized off of the previous GFS run anyway, so where the GFS goes, they generally go.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

sykkid is troll the more I see it! Saying this storm is done which it isn't!!!


Can you stop policing the blog please...

cr*p spelt as it was, is not a swear word.

and sykkid did NOT say the storm was dead.

Isaac will hit cane status by 1pm UTC Sunday i think
recon found winds of 55mph, I think they will keep the intensity at 60mph
Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.


You don't get sub 1000mb pressures with a CoC that is opening up as the recon is finding.
Quoting SykKid:
97L going fishing
Too early
2024. SykKid
Pressure much lower then i thought wow
I think the new NHC track will go over Pensacola... the EURO will actually be the eastern outlier for this one - MAINLY BECAUSE it shows Isaac going up into the Bahamas - and it's def not doing that... I would suspect the next EURO will jump westward as well... That High Pressure is a lot stronger than we all thought apparently...
2026. 900MB
Quoting chrisdscane:


21n 75w u agree?


I'm down w that!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite image that Drak posted is very, very helpful on determining where the center is going as it automatically tracks the center to keep it exactly in frame. Heading WNW at this time, away from Cuba. On track per NHC.
Link
for sure its offshore lets see if the convection covers the center but looking at recon info thus far the pressure has remained steady
Quoting wn1995:


That is a good view... looks like it is finally JUST offshore.


Yep.
Quoting stormhank:
I see some models jumped west....dunno how far west isaac would track in gulf...im thinkin somewherre from mobile to apalachicola myself


Until the models jump back to the East. I've watched some local meteorologist look pretty silly following each model run like it was the absolute truth. Then they have to back track and change their forecast 6 hours later.
Quoting Levi32:


BAM suite is initialized off of the previous GFS run anyway, so where the GFS goes, they generally go.


yea true Levi, am I wrong to say that in the 12Z runs, the GFDL, HWRF, Euro and Ukmet all shifted east?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
recon found winds of 55mph, I think they will keep the intensity at 60mph



and found 997.7mb


997.7 mb
(~ 29.46 inHg)
Flight level winds are 64mph, SFMR 58mph. Isaac will probably stay at 60mph at 5pm in my opinion.
Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.

Not what recon is seeing!
2034. Drakoen
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.
2035. Levi32
Those newer thunderstorms are putting up 50kt flight-level winds, but the system is obviously somewhat weaker than before it came ashore Haiti. It looks ready to restrengthen though.

ANT alert! My backyard is flooded in Ants!
2037. angiest
Current steering layer (based on the best information we have for pressure)

Quoting chrisdscane:


21n 75w u agree?
Yeah right around there.
Quoting Civicane49:
Hey guys. I'm back.

I'll probably come to this site almost everyday to see what's new.

I see that Isaac is currently affecting the northern Caribbean Islands, and is expected to become a hurricane and threaten the southeastern United States.


The Isaccum cleaner sucking up the FL Mess?
Time: 20:12:00Z
Coordinates: 21.5667N 75.5167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,488 meters (~ 4,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 139° at 53 knots (From the SE at ~ 60.9 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C* (~ 59.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect d
Quoting Tribucanes:


MOST??? of the people on the blog are wishcasting. I've seen posts like this over and over. I know this post got lots of pluses, ya'll must be reading a different blog than I; because I don't see that at all. People are excited by the models which bring the storm closest to them. Guess why? Because it well may. Saying they WANT to be hit by a monster Isaac is a very big leap. I'm sure someone will post something in an hour stating the same ridiculous thing because it'll get lots of pluses. I'm sure SOMEONE or two may WANT to get hit directly by a major. Rest assured MOST do not in any way.


yea I like hurricanes but I am not crazy enough to want twisters raining down on my town. Hurricanes like isaac are dangerous storms. Those on the coast don't want to stick around to see how high the waves get.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite image that Drak posted is very, very helpful on determining where the center is going as it automatically tracks the center to keep it exactly in frame. Heading WNW at this time, away from Cuba. On track per NHC.
Link


Yep def best for COC Locating
2043. SykKid
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Can you stop policing the blog please...

cr*p spelt as it was, is not a swear word.

and sykkid did NOT say the storm was dead.

Isaac will hit cane status by 1pm UTC Sunday i think


thank you
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup take in at 21N 75W
2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25 Location: 20.8°N 75.3°W
Quoting Levi32:
Those newer thunderstorms are putting up 50kt+ flight-level winds, but the system is obviously weaker than before it came ashore Haiti.



Oh yea, there's no question about that. Though it's not dying as some have been claiming all day.
LAND.
Quoting Realtormama:
Can someone explain why it is supposed to be Cat 2 then fall off to Cat 1 at landfall somewhere in the northern gulf. What makes it fall off?

it almost looks like Isaac is now connected with all of the rain over Florida as its rotating the same way lol

bye bye blue skies, see you on Tuesday here in Tampa
its offshore heading about 310-315 itll be a close call for SEFL wouldnt be surprised to see hur-warnings up later, watch and see hope for the best
Time: 20:13:00Z
Coordinates: 21.5667N 75.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,494 meters (~ 4,902 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 147° at 50 knots (From the SSE at ~ 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 51 knots* (~ 58.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr* (~ 0.55 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25 Location: 20.8°N 75.3°W




am looking at what the recon is fineing not where the nhc put the center at 2pm
Issac is still a 60mph tropical cyclone.

As I stated in my blog, I'm expecting Hurricane Issac by sunrise.


201200 2134N 07531W 8432 01488 //// +152 //// 139053 056 051 015 01
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
I think the new NHC track will go over Pensacola... the EURO will actually be the eastern outlier for this one - MAINLY BECAUSE it shows Isaac going up into the Bahamas - and it's def not doing that... I would suspect the next EURO will jump westward as well... That High Pressure is a lot stronger than we all thought apparently...

Yeah, I believe the Euro will be coming West on it's next run tonight.
2053. Michfan
Time: 20:06:00Z
Coordinates: 21.3667N 75.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,483 meters (~ 4,865 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 130° at 18 knots (From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.6°C (~ 67.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.5°C (~ 59.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (~ 0.35 in/hr)
Quoting Realtormama:
Can someone explain why it is supposed to be Cat 2 then fall off to Cat 1 at landfall somewhere in the northern gulf. What makes it fall off?

Land interaction
Not directly related to Isaac.

The Cayman low is down to 1004mb along a stationary front.

A nearby buoy has a reading of "29.73in and falling," which is 1006.5mb.


I wonder what this is going to do for steering if it keeps deepening?

Wind barb overlay still suggests a partially formed circulation at the lower levels.
2056. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea true Levi, am I wrong to say that in the 12Z runs, the GFDL, HWRF, Euro and Ukmet all shifted east?


UKMET is about the same as the 00z.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25 Location: 20.8°N 75.3°W


sorry correction 21n 76W
Quoting Levi32:


They are trying hard. 998mb is the new extrapolated pressure minimum.



They can't find the center?
Judging from recon, Isaac should be at 60mph, 998mb at 5PM. Should be a hurricane by tomorrow night.
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Can you stop policing the blog please...

cr*p spelt as it was, is not a swear word.

and sykkid did NOT say the storm was dead.

Isaac will hit cane status by 1pm UTC Sunday i think

Oh yes he did...and im not policing either!!Said lots of times this morning and yesterday too.Even now he says the coc is weak lol! Its not!! So just go on with it and leave it alone.
Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.


In the time recon has been out there the pressure has come down from 1000mb to 997.7mb.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Judging from recon, Isaac should be at 60mph, 998mb at 5PM. Should be a hurricane by tomorrow night.



they found a 997mb not too long a go
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
ANT alert! My backyard is flooded in Ants!


thats not a good thing. lol the ants might know better than your average weatherman. NOAA had a blog this past week of how studies show animals can sense when a hurricane is coming.
Quoting Tazmanian:




am looking at what the recon is fineing not where the nhc put the center at 2pm

I know, I was showing the previous position to get a idea where it moved to.
2066. Michfan
Quoting weatherh98:


They can't find the center?


They can't get close enough to the Cuban coast to get to it. 997 is the lowest they have found so far.
2067. wpb
what needs to be written the land mass is getting closer to sea level he slowly moving away from the 12k mountain into land mass less than 250 ft.
he could be a Hurricane at 11, its only 14 mph.
2069. WxLogic
For now 18Z NAM @36HR showing weaker ridging in the N Gulf states compared to earlier runs. In this 18Z NAM received 5 more DROP & 30 RAOBF Data than the standard.

Will be interesting to see if the passing TROF over the Great Lakes leaves a weakness open long enough.
I'll be watching late tonight and tomorrow to see if COC
can tighten up more and core develop..It had barely got going before It crossed Haiti .
2071. angiest
Quoting weatherh98:


They can't find the center?


Very close to the coast. It will be hard to fly through the center without flying over land, and they don't fly recon over land.
Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


That might be the case but its circulation is half-exposed. It will take a while to correct.
Quoting Tazmanian:



they found a 997mb not too long a go

997.7mb is rounded out to 998mb, Taz. It's possible this will continue deepening though.
2074. Michfan
roduct: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 21.5N 75.6W
Location: 103 miles (165 km) to the N (8°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (29.50 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 95° (from the E) 47 knots (54 mph)
1000mb -10m (-33 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 674m (2,211 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F) 120° (from the ESE) 48 knots (55 mph)
850mb 1,407m (4,616 ft) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F) 135° (from the SE) 46 knots (53 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 20:09Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 21.55N 75.64W
Splash Time: 20:11Z

Release Location: 21.54N 75.61W
Release Time: 20:09:31Z

Splash Location: 21.55N 75.64W
Splash Time: 20:11:42Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 53 knots (61 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 48 knots (55 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 842mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 50 knots (58 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
999mb (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
857mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 18.7°C (65.7°F)
850mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F)
842mb 15.6°C (60.1°F) 15.6°C (60.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 47 knots (54 mph)
990mb 100° (from the E) 53 knots (61 mph)
981mb 105° (from the ESE) 47 knots (54 mph)
951mb 105° (from the ESE) 59 knots (68 mph)
931mb 115° (from the ESE) 49 knots (56 mph)
913mb 130° (from the SE) 48 knots (55 mph)
906mb 135° (from the SE) 51 knots (59 mph)
887mb 140° (from the SE) 44 knots (51 mph)
876mb 135° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
856mb 135° (from the SE) 42 knots (48 mph)
842mb 135° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I know, I was showing the previous position to get a idea where it moved to.



oh ok
2076. Levi32
12z ECMWF ensembles:

Quoting CybrTeddy:


You don't get sub 1000mb pressures with a CoC that is opening up as the recon is finding.
Issac is croaking
2078. CJ5
Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


I agree. However, we have been watching this tempered strengthening for 72 hours now. I would like to see some real structure. Surely it will begin to pull in some of the mosture out west and form a solid CDO and good convection all around.
Quoting Tazmanian:



they found a 997mb not too long a go


Well, 997.7 so they'll probably round up to 998mb. Unless they find it lower before 5PM comes out which is possible.
2081. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
We are already seeing signs that the system wants to get going. Pressures decreasing and solid convection developing in the eastern half.


Just needs to pull itself out of Cuba.
2082. GetReal


Isaac is NOT on a good heading that will allow intensification anytime soon. Isaac need to pull away from the N coast of Cuba in order to maintain itself, or to strengthen. If Isaac stays on the current heading, he will stay on the extreme south side of the track cone, and ride up the center length of Cuba.

Which may not be bad for us on the Gulf Coast, if his core is severely damage, or destroyed.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

997.7mb is rounded out to 998mb, Taz. It's possible this will continue deepening though.



i new it may be a RI is under way
Quoting Tribucanes:


MOST??? of the people on the blog are wishcasting. I've seen posts like this over and over. I know this post got lots of pluses, ya'll must be reading a different blog than I; because I don't see that at all. People are excited by the models which bring the storm closest to them. Guess why? Because it well may. Saying they WANT to be hit by a monster Isaac is a very big leap. I'm sure someone will post something in an hour stating the same ridiculous thing because it'll get lots of pluses. I'm sure SOMEONE or two may WANT to get hit directly by a major. Rest assured MOST do not in any way.

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Issac is croaking
Don't start (again)
Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.


What are you looking at man?

This is the best radar presentation the core has ever had, though we can't say much for when it was S of Haiti since there was no radar, but wtf...

This thing is re-building an eye-wall and probably about to go RI...

2087. BlxMS
Quoting E46Pilot:
For those of you wishing for a hurricane by you...watch this video and remember it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S68ksghDNg4



I echo Pilot's sentiments. My office WAS on the corner over Mr. Hardy's left shoulder...until 8AM on the morning of the 28th....Nobody should have to live through the heartache caused by Katrina.
The interaction between Isaac and the disturbance to its NW is beginning to get pretty interesting now. Huge moisture field possibly coming together:

Quoting WxLogic:
For now 18Z NAM @36HR showing weaker ridging in the N Gulf states compared to earlier runs. In this 18Z NAM received 5 more DROP & 30 RAOBF Data than the standard.

Will be interesting to see if the passing TROF over the Great Lakes leaves a weakness open long enough.

Which one are you referring to? The one impacting Chicago tomorrow?
Quoting Tazmanian:



i new it may be a RI is under way

More like slight strengthening. Not RI Taz (yet).
2091. docrod
Hi from Key colony Beach. Haven't been camping on the blog but hopefully I'm not repeating anything.

Had nearly 3" of rain today hampering everyone's prep. The water will unfortunately increase the likelihood of tree fall. Some squall lines had gusts to around 30 (a guess) - much stronger at Sombrero light.

I'm at approx. 81.1W; 24.7N; fairly close to the center line of the 11 am projected track. - cheers
Quoting Methurricanes:
he could be a Hurricane at 11, its only 14 mph.

too close to Cuba sorry
Quoting GetReal:


Isaac is NOT on a good heading that will allow intensification anytime soon. Isaac need to pull away from the N coast of Cuba in order to maintain itself, or to strengthen. If Isaac stays on the current heading, he will stay on the extreme south side of the track cone, and ride up the center of Cuba.

Which may not be bad for us on the Gulf Coast, if his core is severely damage, or destroyed.


Looking at the latest frames it looks like he took a jog to the NW.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

too close to Cuba sorry



am with him 11pm we may see a hurricane he sould be far a way from the coast then
Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh

Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

too close to Cuba sorry

It's already offshore...
Being too close to the coast didn't stop Humberto.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS CROSSED THE FAR EASTERN TIP
OF CUB ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS NOW EMERGED ON ITS NORTHERN
END AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERNIGHT.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEPARTING 60-70KT JET THAT IS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS WHAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION...AND WHAT IS KEEPING ACTIVITY
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION HAS REMAINED UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES ALL DAY...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MOST INDIVIDUAL ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER
THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE JET INDUCED ACTIVITY AND
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OUTER PERIPHERY FROM ISAAC BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER OR STORM CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AS ISAAC REACHES FURTHER INTO THE
STRAITS AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS IT
TRAVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUNDAY...MOVES THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING ALL
THIS TIME OVER WATER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISAAC TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE KEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME A CAT 2 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT 72
HOURS.

WHILE CHANGES IN TRACK MAY AFFECT THE EXACT ONSET AND STRENGTH OF
WINDS...THE LARGE SIZE OF ISAAC WILL MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...THE TREASURE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS...ALONG THE BREVARD
COAST...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH THE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL EASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

WITH ISAAC EXPECTED TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF INTO
MONDAY...SQUALLS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY
FLOODING RAINFALL. THE PATH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO KEEP EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN CONDUCIVE AREA FOR
TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON ISAAC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF ISAAC.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUES-FRI...LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH LATE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL TREND WILL
BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AS ISSAC PULLS AWAY BY MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS INCREASING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS NORTH OF KISM-KTTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARDS OUT OF THE REGION. ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HORUS...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING SOUTH OF KMLB TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE OUTER
RAINBANDS FROM TS ISAAC BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION. EXPECT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SQUALLS AND SUSTAINED WINDS FROM MID
SUNDAY MORNING ONWARDS AS ISAAC APPROACHES FLORIDA. ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD CONTAIN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAAC MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
WHILE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE AT THIS TIME...FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST ON ISAAC AS
CHANGES IN THE TRACK MAY RESULT IN CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 88 81 86 / 20 60 80 70
MCO 75 89 77 87 / 20 60 70 70
MLB 79 86 80 87 / 20 70 80 70
VRB 79 89 82 89 / 30 80 80 70
LEE 74 92 78 86 / 20 50 70 70
SFB 75 90 78 87 / 20 60 70 70
ORL 75 89 78 86 / 20 60 70 70
FPR 81 86 82 88 / 30 80 80 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ST.
LUCIE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VOLUSIA-BREVARD-LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY
AVIATION...BOWEN
TROPICAL WEATHER...BLOTTMAN
Nice view of Isaac from the moment it entered the Caribbean.

Link


Isaac may be far away now but this is what we got today here in santo domingo...
Quoting cat6band:
Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!




stop picking on him no one is 100% right all the time
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!


Love Maine! My mother is from Manset (Mount Desert Island) and my brother lived in Portland for several years (my favorite city).
Quoting cat6band:
Where is Wunderkid??? I guess he finally threw in the towel...lol...he was on here for a week straight!! It's SOUTH....WSW....SOUTH SOUTH WEST...SOUTH OF WEST SOUTH WEST.....lol...He's great!!!


maybe he is on the phone arguing about them dropping the TS watch for the Caymans lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh




No it's not look at microwave.
Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles:



Still plenty of spread in its ensembles. I want to see the GFS/Euro converge somewhere and stay put.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh





its not overe land its this off the coast
Quoting atmosweather:
The interaction between Isaac and the disturbance to its NW is beginning to get pretty interesting now. Huge moisture field possibly coming together:



its clearly offshore
Quoting wolftribe2009:


thats not a good thing. lol the ants might know better than your average weatherman. NOAA had a blog this past week of how studies show animals can sense when a hurricane is coming.


Got a link on that article?
Quoting justsouthofnola:


did you look at the map?
isaac took a nw track over haiti, when he emerged, the storm took a wnw direction

Link


twc straight line graph gives a better view of the path.

the current loop does appear to be moving nnw i would agree


here we go again.....its west...........its north........its west...........its north..........mannnnnnnnnnnnn
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What's weird to me about it is I would think a gulf storm to our east would bring us a dry NE wind. Unless he's so big we'd catch the outer rains from him? He'd have to be really big. But what do I know? :)

If hes sucking up the FL mess than he will be BIG maybe not that big but still
According to my google earth distance measurement tool, it is just 17 miles north of Puerto Sama, which is right on the north coast of Cuba.
Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles:

eastern lousiana to the big bend area. the key will be how much the rebuilding ridge pushes isaac wnw before he starts turning north. your track is nice but mine is just west of yours. is isaac a rare storm or are these type of storms quite common?(ones that cross the Greater antillies into the gulf)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh

Were you the one that issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman's yesterday? ;)
OK, jeez. Just look at this and speed it up

Link
Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).
2116. WxLogic
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Which one are you referring to? The one impacting Chicago tomorrow?


The shortwave currently in Montana/North Dakota. Yeah... should be closing in in 24 to 48HRs... Is not that deep but could prevent further bridging of the central CONUS High and Bermuda.
Quoting tropicfreak:
According to my google earth distance measurement tool, it is just 17 miles north of Puerto Sama, which is right on the north coast of Cuba.
and I believe international waters are something like 30 miles offshore so they only can get within 13 miles of the center.
2118. GetReal
Quoting Tazmanian:



i new it may be a RI is under way


No RI for the next few hours at a minimum Taz... Look at the loops and you will observe that the south side of the circulation has been choked off by the Cuban mountain range to the south of Isaac.
Brian Norcross is on TWC now
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).


I think we'll get more than that. Not saying it's gonna be real bad but I think we'll have tropical storm conditions.
Quoting GetReal:


No RI for the next few hours at a minimum Taz... Look at the loops and you will observe that the south side of the circulation has been choked off by the Cuban mountain range to the south of Isaac.




ok
Quoting RTSplayer:
Quoting cajunkid:
COC opening up now. Not as tight as earlier.


What are you looking at man?

This is the best radar presentation the core has ever had, though we can't say much for when it was S of Haiti since there was no radar, but wtf...

This thing is re-building an eye-wall and probably about to go RI...

Strengthening is NOT going to happen rapidly anytime real soon. Isaac not the well organized and it is near (too close) or over land. Everyone knows you are anxious for RI!!!!
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).


Isaac is very large, you will likely get TS conditions
Quoting Realtormama:
Can someone explain why it is supposed to be Cat 2 then fall off to Cat 1 at landfall somewhere in the northern gulf. What makes it fall off?
The underwater topography contributes. Shallower water close to coastline.

image credit: wiki commons
2125. Hhunter
getting a bad feeling about this storm...
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!


Lol. I'm thinking I REALLY should've left the TX out of my handle. :)
Is the center already past Cuba, and if so, isn't that earlier than expected?
Quoting StormDrain:
The underwater topography contributes. Shallower water close to coastline.

image credit: wiki commons
They about to talk about that on TWC good stuff posted.
Quoting GetReal:


Isaac is NOT on a good heading that will allow intensification anytime soon. Isaac need to pull away from the N coast of Cuba in order to maintain itself, or to strengthen. If Isaac stays on the current heading, he will stay on the extreme south side of the track cone, and ride up the center length of Cuba.

Which may not be bad for us on the Gulf Coast, if his core is severely damage, or destroyed.


Well it does look like Isaac is pulling away, although slowly.

Plus, looking at a topography map, Isaac is already past the huge mountains of eastern Cuba. The rest of Cuba will be much less of an obstruction for Isaac than Haiti and eastern Cuba have been for him the past 18 hours.



So things are looking up for Isaac.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I love it in Maine. I am never blasted for "wish casting" just sitting up here wondering where it will go. I am free to post my opinion and not get blasted it is really fun!!


Hello everyone, I am just getting on here today and haven't read back thru the pages, it gives me a headache when I do that and I already have one now. Looks like the "wish" casting has come up again. I saw enough of it last night. I would just like to add my two cents. When I see someone who obviously wants to be hit by a storm, I assume they are young, immature, or don't know better. My son is 16, and he wants to experience a storm, despite my telling him how ridiculous he is. It really annoys me he feels that way. I just try to ignore the comments on here and the ones from my son, and figure time will teach. BTW, I am not trying to insult anyone.
I am watching channel 7 news (south florida) and the storm looks terrible... will it even be a tropical storm when it reaches the keys?
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on recent model trends, I think it is fairly safe to assume that East Central FL will get intermittent rain showers and a few squalls-basically just some rain. The area may very well experience a few tropical storm force gusts, which happens periodically during rainy season thunderstorms. The Keys may be in for it if Isaac can get its act together, or it may stay weak, just like Ernesto '06. Once it gets into the gulf, however, Apalachicola to New Orleans may be dealing with a hurricane (the first 7 years or so).


What about the Tropical Storm Watches and tornado threat? I think this is a little more serious then intermitten rain and squalls. Otherwise why post watches for a few gusts? There was no TS watches inland for Debby were there?
2043: lmao I know your playing tricks thinking its dead or its alive or etc...the blog doesn't like it!
westcasters out in full today LOL!
Quoting connie1976:
I am watching channel 7 news (south florida) and the storm looks terrible... will it even be a tropical storm when it reaches the keys?


Recon has confirmed the storm still has 60mph and a pressure of 997mb

the storm has actually fared very well with dealing with land the last 18 hours, looks sometimes can be deceiving
Quoting connie1976:
I am watching channel 7 news (south florida) and the storm looks terrible... will it even be a tropical storm when it reaches the keys?


It will at least be a tropical storm if not hurricane.
TRue to goodness , I'm getting sick of this blob, making fun of others just because they have strong convictions about what they're seeing, though it sames farfetched, some are cold and have no feeling for others at all whatsoever , BTW , IMO the center is over land around 20.7N/76.5W Run this Link and watch the wind Observations!
Quoting GetReal:


No RI for the next few hours at a minimum Taz... Look at the loops and you will observe that the south side of the circulation has been choked off by the Cuban mountain range to the south of Isaac.



ok
2139. Grothar
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
2043: lmao I know your playing tricks thinking its dead or its alive or etc...the blog doesn't like it!
Love Bon Jovi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I'm thinking I REALLY should've left the TX out of my handle. :)

LOL
Quoting Hhunter:
getting a bad feeling about this storm...


Me too. But then again it could of been the egg salad.
2143. wpb
Quoting wpb:
what needs to be written the land mass is getting closer to sea level he slowly moving away from the 12k mountain into land mass less than 250 ft.
thanks
Quoting stormpetrol:
TRue to goodness , I'm getting sick of this blob, making fun of others just because they have strong convictions about what they're seeing, though it sames farfetched, some are cold and have no feeling for others at all whatsoever , BTW , IMO the center is over land around 20.7N/76.5W Run this Link and watch the wind Observations!



for the last time its not overe land it overe the open water at 21N 75W
2145. Grothar
Quoting connie1976:
I am watching channel 7 news (south florida) and the storm looks terrible... will it even be a tropical storm when it reaches the keys?


It is expected to be at least a Cat 1.
Quoting weatherxtreme:
westcasters out in full today LOL!



Must be talking about the GFS then....It's been westcasting all day....
2147. Levi32
Quoting floridaboy14:
eastern lousiana to the big bend area. the key will be how much the rebuilding ridge pushes isaac wnw before he starts turning north. your track is nice but mine is just west of yours. is isaac a rare storm or are these type of storms quite common?(ones that cross the Greater antillies into the gulf)


They can slip up the west side of Florida, but a track like the 12z GFS from south of Hispaniola NW to the central gulf coast just doesn't show up in the record books.
Quoting connie1976:
I am watching channel 7 news (south florida) and the storm looks terrible... will it even be a tropical storm when it reaches the keys?
I think it might look kind of wierd for 2 reasons
1) it just emerged from mountaious land
2) it is merging with that cluster of Tstorms currently over Florida.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Recon has confirmed the storm still has 60mph and a pressure of 997mb

the storm has actually fared very well with dealing with land the last 18 hours, looks sometimes can be deceiving


Thanks!!
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Unless I am mistaken, the time on the radar image is either at 0z last night or midnight last night.
Quoting Methurricanes:
I think it might look kind of wierd for 2 reasons
1) it just emerged from mountaious land
2) it is merging with that cluster of Tstorms currently over Florida.


Ok, thank you for the info!!!
Quoting weatherxtreme:
westcasters out in full today LOL!


As are the eastcasters
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Were you the one that issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman's yesterday? ;)
I read a post (which is completely wrong!),that Isaac was moving SOUTH WEST and was going directly into the Cayman Islands.People are wasting precious time day and night!!! in this VERY SERIOUS WEATHER BLOG!,putting this type of erroneous information!!!.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they can't find the LLC because it's over land duh



I'm going to miss this once Isaac is past the Cayman's longitude... this is too comical.
2155. GetReal


I have always written off the CMC, but it is funny that Isaac is right on top of the last CMC projected track for the last several hours. LOL at the irony.
Isaac:

Quoting Levi32:


They can slip up the west side of Florida, but a track like the 12z GFS from south of Hispaniola NW to the central gulf coast just doesn't show up in the record books.


Maybe Isaac missed History class the day they talked about that lol. Didn't Georges pulled something similar?
Quoting Tazmanian:



for the last time its not overe land it overe the open water at 21N 75W


Good for you Taz, you have your opinion and I have mine! Simple as that Buddy!!
2159. HRinFM
Quoting Grothar:
The voice of reason.
Quoting stormpetrol:
TRue to goodness , I'm getting sick of this blob, making fun of others just because they have strong convictions about what they're seeing, though it sames farfetched, some are cold and have no feeling for others at all whatsoever , BTW , IMO the center is over land around 20.7N/76.5W Run this Link and watch the wind Observations!


Not seeing what you are seeing. They found the area of lowest pressure 15 miles offshore.
Quoting Civicane49:
Isaac:

Not looking too shabby!
Quoting cajunkid:
OK, jeez. Just look at this and speed it up

Link
That was cool!
Quoting cajunkid:
OK, jeez. Just look at this and speed it up

Link
That was cool!
Quoting stormpetrol:
TRue to goodness , I'm getting sick of this blob, making fun of others just because they have strong convictions about what they're seeing, though it sames farfetched, some are cold and have no feeling for others at all whatsoever , BTW , IMO the center is over land around 20.7N/76.5W Run this Link and watch the wind Observations!



sorry pal 20.7N 76.5W would be impossible GJ trying though
2167. SykKid
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
2043: lmao I know your playing tricks thinking its dead or its alive or etc...the blog doesn't like it!



no.

whatever happen to xcool
if it is going west and i say it is going west am i a westcaster.
Quoting Redbull77:
if it is going west and i say it is going west am i a westcaster.
Another expert I see
Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles:



Interesting that a 5-sigma result takes up such an enormous area.

3 sigma is about 99% certainty, but that range goes from as far west as Houma to as far east as S. Carolina for the same time frame.


I guess this makes sense because the "cone" is a 2/3rds certainty...
I wonder if they evacuated Scarabeo 9. I bet they don't.
center appears to be right on the coast on 76W 21N
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Not looking too shabby!


Yep.
Quoting newportrinative:


I think we'll get more than that. Not saying it's gonna be real bad but I think we'll have tropical storm conditions.


We may very well get more, I am just basing this prediction on past experience. Georges in 1998 moved through The Keys (as a cat. 2 or 3) on a wnw to nw trajectory similar to what is being forecast for Isaac, and we just got some rain. Another that comes to mind is Erin '95. I was so excited to see some strong winds (being a 10 year old and all). It moved in near Vero Beach as a cat. 2 and across the Peninsula and it got a bit gusty that morning but that was it. I can think of other examples as well.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Maybe Isaac missed History class the day they talked about that lol. Didn't Georges pulled something similar?


Ha yeah but Georges wasn't south of Hispaniola I think. I think it went from PR to DR to Haiti to Cuba to the central gulf. Come to think about it, it's amazing it stayed a hurricane the whole time.
2176. GetReal
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well it does look like Isaac is pulling away, although slowly.

Plus, looking at a topography map, Isaac is already past the huge mountains of eastern Cuba. The rest of Cuba will be much less of an obstruction for Isaac than Haiti and eastern Cuba have been for him the past 18 hours.



So things are looking up for Isaac.


Unfortunately the se quad of the circulation hasn't cleared the mountains.... that is the problem for Isaac.
Quoting weatherh98:


As are the eastcasters


Cayman Casters?
Quoting Seflhurricane:
center appears to be right on the coast on 76W 21N


I have to agree
Quoting Tazmanian:



for the last time its not overe land it overe the open water at 21N 75W
Tazmanian I respectfully advise to please don't waste your time answering to the CI guys!!,they are not providing anything of subtance to this blog and the serious situation that we can have with Isaac.You are right the center is over water on the Eastern coast of Cuba,as verified by all local news outlets and the NHC at this time.
Quoting chrisdscane:


I have to agree

We will find out in 10 mins.
Trending WNW-NW now, clearly evident thanks to them moving with the system's CoC. Give it 5-6 more hours to clear Cuba.
Link
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

If hes sucking up the FL mess than he will be BIG maybe not that big but still


Yeah I was noticing on satellite how big he is. I live about 90 miles east of Houston and We're supposed to be under building high pressure so I'm not sure what Houston was talking about. Looks like he will definitely stir up a lot of the gulf though.
2183. HrDelta
Quoting HRinFM:
The voice of reason.


And the Most Interesting Man in the World.

Grother doesn't always comment, but when he does, he comments on Jeff Master's Blog.

In regards to Isaac, I have given up on trying to predict beyond 72 hours. This thing is finicky.

In other news, Libya has had a very, very bad day.
2184. wpb
please post gitmo radar center was seen and looking a liite better
Due to the increase of convection and the fact that the center is now located just to the north of Cuba, I am beginning to wonder about something. There might be a chance for Isaac to strengthen into a strong CAT 1 hurricane even before it reaches Florida. I was looking at the satellites and realized that there is quite a ways between it and Florida. Masters also stated that most storms in this area have a tendency to strengthen up to 20 MPH. I agree with that and think it might be likely with Isaac.
New blog on Isaac by me.
Link
Pressures are really low in the Gulf.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Tazmanian I respectfully advise to please don't waste your time answering to the CI guys!!,they are not providing anything of subtance to this blog and the serious situation that we can have with Isaac.You are right the center is over water on the Eastern coast of Cuba,as verified by all local news outlets and the NHC at this time.




YAY am right for once for being right what do i get?
The center appears to be just offshore.

12z Euro ensembles at 96 hours. A lot more disagreement with its ensembles than there has been.

from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.
One can tell that the center is either emerging or has emerged out into the very warm waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as convection has really begun building once again to the north and the east of the circulation center. Once it pulls further from the coast, convection should fill in on the western side as it interacts with the thunderstorm complex to the north and west of the storm. It should be noted that usually, when thunderstorms line up out ahead a storm, the storm typically takes the same path. So I would not be surprised to see the storm continue on a northwest track over the next several hours or even beyond.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Trending WNW-NW now, clearly evident thanks to them moving with the system's CoC. Give it 5-6 more hours to clear Cuba.
Link



That's a great shot....More people should just watch that...and we wouldn't have so much ridiculousness on here...
Quoting Tazmanian:




YAY am right for once for being right what do i get?


Cookie or bragging rights? Take your pick. ;)
2195. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


They can slip up the west side of Florida, but a track like the 12z GFS from south of Hispaniola NW to the central gulf coast just doesn't show up in the record books.
1979s fredrick is pretty darn close.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Another expert I see


i am not saying its going west, it is just to find out why you have to be called a westcaster, or a eastcaster. If its going north are you a northcaster. i am just getting tired of people not allowing people to state their opinions without going after them. I come here to learn and if someone thinks it is going this way, i would like to see if i can understand why they think that. sorry back to lurking
Interesting to see that the area of convection out ahead of Isaac appears to be wrapping into the circulation. I was wondering what this would do.
Looking at the cuban radar the center is in fact right on the coast or a tad just offshore but the east/NE side is filling in quite quickly , center is very near Banes,cuba
Quoting tropicfreak:


Cookie or bragging rights? Take your pick. ;)



how about a trip too the moon
2200. Drakoen
Quoting Bamatracker:
from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.


Thanks for that NWS update.
2201. HrDelta
Quoting Civicane49:
The center appears to be just offshore.



I would say you would be correct. Just a little bit off shore. Isaac didn't even spend 24 hours over land.
Quoting GetReal:


I have always written off the CMC, but it is funny that Isaac is right on top of the last CMC projected track for the last several hours. LOL at the irony.


I think it may be a mistake for folks to focus too much on the GFS and Euro models because of their recent reliable performances when a poorer performing model may be nailing it. I give all models attention.....not necessarily equal though.....not that gullible.
Hi all,
I used to be on here...mostly 2006-08...right now the blog reminds me of what I told my kids when they reached their late teens early adulthood...you may have THOUGHT you were bad but you didn't do ANYTHING that equaled what I did...always been wishcasters etc...and the fights that USED to go on!! Hi Taz and the MS people!!
Issac is a weird storm, center is over water, hope and pray everyone stays safe.....
back to lurking....
advisory is in the center is offshore and pressure is down to 997Mlb winds remain at 60 mph
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
More important than where the center is, it is still raining hard over all of Haiti, with 100,000s in tents, mudslides and flooding are going to be serious problems
Quoting Redbull77:


i am not saying its going west, it is just to find out why you have to be called a westcaster, or a eastcaster. If its going north are you a northcaster. i am just getting tired of people not allowing people to state their opinions without going after them. I come here to learn and if someone thinks it is going this way, i would like to see if i can understand why they think that. sorry back to lurking



Exactly, the ones who don't know what they are talking about will weed themselves out!!
2208. HrDelta
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Cone of Doom:

Will the upper level low to the north and east of Isaac create a weakness in the ridge causing Isaac to move more north and east? Also the low forming west of Isaac, will that have an effect on Issac path?
5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.
Intensity forecast didn't vary much
Quoting weatherxtreme:
westcasters out in full today LOL!
LOL? Your comment is not the least bit clever or amusing. This "wishcasting" finger pointing got old at least three years ago. Now, it's nothing but a childish demand for attention when you have nothing worthwhile to add to the weather discussion.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I'm going to miss this once Isaac is past the Cayman's longitude... this is too comical.


people are arguing about where the center is. I'll tell you where it is. It is just north of the tip of eastern cuba. The as well as the same place there is a flare up of convection and the same place you can see spiral bands forming on visible sat as well as the weakening of the rainbands over Haiti and the DR.

Link
STORM SURGE: FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
2217. WxLogic
Quoting Bamatracker:
from nws in mobile
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS
AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF
ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND
PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE
TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS
INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS
SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A
TRUER OBSERVATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM
THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH
WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM.


Is unfortunate but it was overdoing the Bermuda high extension and progressively trending west on each run. We'll see if it corrects by 00Z.
2218. Michfan
Sarasota County schools are now closed Monday.
Quoting Redbull77:
if it is going west and i say it is going west am i a westcaster.


Well, if you're thinking Brownsville, Tx you might be a westcaster....lol
center is now offshore

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

If what the NWS in Mobile says is true, expect the GFS to switch back eastward...I think the track looks pretty good right now from the NHC, but as I have said, I think it will be shifted eastward a bit
Recon turned around again,,,,, LOOKING
2224. airmet3
Quoting OceanMoan:



Exactly, the ones who don't know what they are talking about will weed themselves out!!

Well that will make for a quiet board.
Quoting MississippiWx:
12z Euro ensembles at 96 hours. A lot more disagreement with its ensembles than there has been.



Folks in your area are definitely not out of it Mississippi
Quoting Tazmanian:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?

5PM little West Tampa out of the cone but they should be prepared to receive severe impacts nonetheless
2228. hydrus
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.
2229. Michfan
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?


Yup just offshore.
2230. Dakster
Quoting CybrTeddy:
5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.


Yes - and Isaac doesn't seem to want to pull away from the Northern part of Cuba. Kind of following it around.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Cayman Casters?


Defeats us all
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


So its pretty much hugging the Cuba coast going NW just like the coast goes, right?



yes
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
5pm in for Isaac, 997mb and 60mph. Impressive for the amount of land interaction it has had.
For sure. Only a 5 mph drop overall.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

5PM little West Tampa out of the cone but they should be prepared to receive severe impacts nonetheless


I think that is more to do with narrowing down the cone, I dont think the track shifted west at all at 5pm, but I have not been able to compare it as of yet
one thing to note is the LLC may get pulled east or NE towards the strong convection developing
thats not good


* FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
If what the NWS in Mobile says is true, expect the GFS to switch back eastward...I think the track looks pretty good right now from the NHC, but as I have said, I think it will be shifted eastward a bit
We'll soon find out in 30 min.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.



Interesting to see if it will be able to turn as thought
Quoting GTcooliebai:
STORM SURGE: FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT

Bayshore near the convention center floods at 5 feet.
Quoting hydrus:
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.


I am interested to see how Isaac reacts with this ULL
To my very untrained eye, it looks as if Issac is pulling the the convection from the Low off of south florida, and wrapping that around him. That would just make the storm bigger in area, but perhaps the size being so big would prevent it from getting too strong in the gulf.
2244. SykKid
Quoting hydrus:
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.


no way it become that powerful. NHC say it only have very, very small chance of become a major.
2245. Levi32
Banding is increasing in the path of the center, expressing the tendency for the storm to strengthen as it moves into the Florida straights.

Long time lurker here (2005), I see Isaac is doing what most storms do after reaching a certain proximity.....what he/she wants.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think that is more to do with narrowing down the cone, I dont think the track shifted west at all at 5pm, but I have not been able to compare it as of yet


My local Met just said they adjusted just a little bit to the west for the 5pm update.
Quoting airmet3:

Well that will make for a quiet board.



I don't want a quiet board, I like the discussions that go on here for the most part. I just think that if you have figured out someone is "wish"casting, then keep it to yourself. They will eventually shut up all by themselves. :-)
Becoming better organized. Outflow to the NW is becoming much, much better established than this morning. Convection increasing over the CoC.
Recon is going towards the center again for another fix
Quoting hydrus:
Held together quite well..This will be a potent storm for South Florida and The Keys...I would bet my last brew that this will become a major hurricane in the gulf.



I agree, this is getting too close for comfort.
Believe me, been thru a few "eyes" and they are bad... been thru a lot of "outter bands" and that can get bad...


It is all measured by clean up "eyes" mean your entire yard is gone aka Wilma...

flooding and clean up... 1999 Irene...

Katrina, Rita, Jeanne, Francis, all one day of yard clean up... Also Andrew and a few others in the 1990's we got "edges"..


We will get some nasty but the upper Gulf Coast will get some really bad nasty.

2252. Drakoen
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
2253. Dakster
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.


Levi talked about that in his tidbit...
2254. FLSurf
Quoting MarkTodd2233:
Recon turned around again,,,,, LOOKING


do you have a link for that?
2255. scott39
This storm is so wide that Isaac is going to effect all of Fl. and the whole pandhandle W to New Orleans. We are looking at TS winds 200 miles from the center.
recon found winds of 66mph
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.6N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.1N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 25.2N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 31.5N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
and I'll taste test the crow
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep.


Wow looks like its going to be enormous once it wrap up the convection to its NW by 11pm we could have a hurricane.
Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.


Drak, do you think a stronger Isaac would tend to be further east in track?
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Isaac parralles the coast of Florida then I don't see much strengthening.


Thats Florida, not Cuba or Haiti. Florida will not have any affect of Isaac unless the center passes over land. The water is 90 F off Florida. That will be the key to it strengthening. The issue I am watching is whether the ULL might create unexpected shear once it gets into the gulf preventing a major hurricane.
2262. hydrus
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Well, if you're thinking Brownsville, Tx you might be a westcaster....lol
This is goin to Butte, Montana. I just received the latest, and all 3 houses have been boarded up and coolers have been stocked with beer, ice and steaks.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.


Yeah... it's flying. Needs to slow down some to intensify.
Quoting Drakoen:
If the 18z GFS and its groupies shift eastward the 11:00pm track will probably shift a bit more to the east.
Groupies may not be the right word. LOLOL.
What do you guys think the odds are of a Charley like "wobble" to the east and this storm coming ashore or riding the west coast of Florida? I know a lot of people here (Cape Coral) are very anxious about this storm. Some gas stations are already out of gas and I saw a line of over 15 cars at another one.
Quoting SykKid:


no way it become that powerful. NHC say it only have very, very small chance of become a major.

"SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."
when i wake up tomorrow at 8am, should i expect a hurricane or a tropical storm?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
recon found winds of 66mph
Suspect.
note this part here



IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
2270. emcf30
One thing for folks to remember, as it has been said in here time after time, no matter where you are in Florida you need to be prepared. The center is expected to stay well off the coast of CFL according to the Official track issued by the NHC. But, if you look at this graphic, you can see the radar indicated rotation and tornado paths caused by a very weak tropical Storm Debby earlier this year.



This storm will have far reaching effects no matter which side of the track your on.

2271. SykKid
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Wow looks like its going to be enormous once it wrap up the convection to its NW by 11pm we could have a hurricane.


lol no it not gonna go under RI this close to cuba and it far too disorganized. no hurricane until tm at least
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Suspect.


no they werent marked as suspect
2273. wn1995
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
2274. pottery
It's all as clear as mud.......

but the centre is offshore Cuba.
The wind field is 200 or so MILES
The rainfall will be real heavy, within a radius of over 400 MILES from wherever the centre is passing.

Relax!
Everyone will get something......
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Suspect.

I don't think so, they weren't flagged and rain rates were low.

Seriously, you all have had me hooked here most of the day... I must shut this off and get some end of the week reports done before I can leave work!

I will check back in an hour.
2277. Grothar
Moving much faster than earlier.
Quoting Dakster:


Levi talked about that in his tidbit...
I didn't see his tidbit today.However if Isaac takes the NHC track then perhaps a cat 2 or 3.
RGB:

What I like about the model runs is by tomorrows runs all of AL will be out of the cone. Or could be anyway.
This is what the NHC is talking about. This could be one of the bigger reasons there is spread in the guidance.

Quoting pottery:
It's all as clear as mud.......

but the centre is offshore Cuba.
The wind field is 200 or so MILES
The rainfall will be real heavy, within a radius of over 400 MILES from wherever the centre is passing.

Relax!
Everyone will get something......


Sir Pott, so true!!!

I must really goooooo bye for now.. play nice..
Quoting pottery:
It's all as clear as mud.......

but the centre is offshore Cuba.
The wind field is 200 or so MILES
The rainfall will be real heavy, within a radius of over 400 MILES from wherever the centre is passing.

Relax!
Everyone will get something......


You may have made wkc a very happy camper:)
Quoting pottery:
It's all as clear as mud.......

but the centre is offshore Cuba.
The wind field is 200 or so MILES
The rainfall will be real heavy, within a radius of over 400 MILES from wherever the centre is passing.

Relax!
Everyone will get something......


AMEN to all that!
2285. SykKid
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."


if thats the case why is the % so low? they dont seem like they believe it will happen
Non-contaminated SFMR.

59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph)


Flight level winds don't support it however.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
Good afternoon...

I did yet another blog post 12 hours ago...and it looks like my first 12 hrs of forecast verified spot-on with track and intensity (my first 12 hrs had a rightward bias...and said he'd have 60 mph max winds)....

But now...the center has veered to the left earlier than I though...I am going to check to see if the synoptic flow makes sense for a leftward bend...or if this is a wobble...hmmm....

As usual...my blog update also covers the rest of the Atlantic tropics....
2289. hydrus
Quoting seflagamma:



I agree, this is getting too close for comfort.
Believe me, been thru a few "eyes" and they are bad... been thru a lot of "outter bands" and that can get bad...


It is all measured by clean up "eyes" mean your entire yard is gone aka Wilma...

flooding and clean up... 1999 Irene...

Katrina, Rita, Jeanne, Francis, all one day of yard clean up...


We will get some nasty but the upper Gulf Coast will some really bad nasty.
Where are you located Gamma?
2290. Drakoen
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Drak, do you think a stronger Isaac would tend to be further east in track?


possibly
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no they werent marked as suspect
Notice the flight-level winds.


204500 2056N 07440W 8428 01518 0041 +160 +160 174028 029 053 013 05
204530 2057N 07442W 8429 01517 0039 +160 +160 180035 037 058 011 01
204600 2058N 07444W 8432 01512 0034 +160 +160 183037 038 059 009 01
204630 2100N 07445W 8430 01515 0036 +160 +160 182038 039 060 008 05
204700 2101N 07447W 8429 01516 0037 +160 +160 184036 038 059 009 01
204730 2102N 07448W 8433 01508 0035 +160 +160 180030 035 058 010 05
Quoting SykKid:


if thats the case why is the % so low? they dont seem like they believe it will happen

NHC probabilities are always very low.
2293. Michfan
Quoting SykKid:


if thats the case why is the % so low? they dont seem like they believe it will happen


Because its a guess more than anything and the NHC does not like to overhype storms. They tend to stay conservative.
2294. pottery
Quoting seflagamma:


Sir Pott, so true!!!

I must really goooooo bye for now.. play nice..

That would be boring. Impossible, too!
Quoting clickBOOM:
Long time lurker here (2005), I see Isaac is doing what most storms do after reaching a certain proximity.....what he/she wants.
From another lurker..."Mother Nature makes the rules, she doesn't follow them". Good luck to all on the northern Gulf Coast (LA, AL, MS, FL).
2296. milo617
Meanwhile in the pacific....



2297. pottery
Quoting weatherh98:


You may have made wkc a very happy camper:)


:):))
2298. CJ5
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Moving at 21 MPH. Wow. That's really moving.


Yes, that is pretty fast, could be a detrement to improving.
2299. SykKid
Quoting StormHype:


Yeah... it's flying. Needs to slow down some to intensify.


not really. moving that fast away from cuba will help it greatly.
2301. WxLogic
HH about to punch through the center shortly.
Quoting msgambler:
What I like about the model runs is by tomorrows runs all of AL will be out of the cone. Or could be anyway.


Or could be more in it, you know they are using the Euro and it has wide swings, not very reliable anymore
I am not trying to scare anyone but just thought this was interesting.

Track over Florida for Katrina 2005
Link

Track of Isaac (Current) 2012
Link

My point is that if you are in the cone be ALERT and ready. NOAA has forecasted track but only a slight change makes a huge difference. 2005 also showed a CAT 2 Katrina hurricane in the panhandle. So don't underestimate this storm. If you are told to get out then leave! You never know what is going to happen.
I wish everyone the best.
The surface low near Grand Cayman is about 3/4ths closed still, but convection there is intensifying on funktop.

There's a piece of ULL centered a couple hundred miles SSW of there which may be enhancing it.

Further, it looks like there may be a mid-level circulation forming as well.

Why isn't this showing up on any of the models except the NAM?!?
isaac is such a rebel, doesnt listen to his mother (nature) at all! hold to your hat hattie! were goin roun' tha bend.
2306. pottery
Thundering here at 11n61w.
The south is all black and morbid looking.
And I have to go out in a while.....

Sucks, that.
The NHC just stated everyone from Southeastern LA to central FL Panhandle is still in the cone of uncertainty so there you go..everyone keep eyes peeled

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252102
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND
CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.6N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.1N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 25.2N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 31.5N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Isaac is pulling into the NW part of the circulation all the convection near andros island looks like its getting cranked up. also looked at the water temps near the north coast of cuba water is between 84-87 degree water so very high fuel


sorry just corrected the 97
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Becoming better organized. Outflow to the NW is becoming much, much better established than this morning. Convection increasing over the CoC.


This is looking Humongous. Wow possible RI also noticing its staying farther right of the official track and also the models are overdoing that HIGH which is frightening. Stay Tuned!!!
Looks like the 5pm advisory has kept virtually the same track, but slowed the storm down a lot.
you guys sould be thank full we got some in too track last year where where tracking nothing but weak TS this year we are doing marh better
Quoting Cruiser29:


Or could be more in it, you know they are using the Euro and it has wide swings, not very reliable anymore
I'm only going by what most experts on here are saying. And if it goes to PCB-East then Mobile will get some rain only. We can use that but there will be lil to no wind that far away.
Faster Isaac goes the quicker it gets away from Cuba, forecasted to slow down some as well once in the Gulf.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Isaac is pulling into the NW part of the circulation all the convection near andros island looks like its getting cranked up. also looked at the water temps near the north coast of cuba water is between 84-97 degree water so very high fuel


Impossible 97 degree SST OMG thats cant be possible.
2316. GBguy88
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Impossible 97 degree SST OMG thats cant be possible.


Surely meant 87...
2318. breald
Good afternoon everyone. Things are starting to get interesting for Florida. I say Isaac will shift to the east. But that is my uneducated guess.


Afternoon everybody.

Looking at the big picture... what are the odds Isaac can pull that moisture towards him it as it heads NW?

This is a whopper of asystem...
Quoting RTSplayer:
The surface low near Grand Cayman is about 3/4ths closed still, but convection there is intensifying on funktop.

There's a piece of ULL centered a couple hundred miles SSW of there which may be enhancing it.

Further, it looks like there may be a mid-level circulation forming as well.

Why isn't this showing up on any of the models except the NAM?!?


NAM: Natcho' Average Model
Quoting BahaHurican:


Afternoon everybody.

Looking at the big picture... what are the odds Isaac can pull that moisture towards him it as it heads NW?

This is a whopper of asystem...


Looks like that is exactly what Isaac is starting to do.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Faster Isaac goes the quicker it gets away from Cuba, forecasted to slow down some as well once in the Gulf.


Its moving quicker because it wants to align itself with
the stronger convection. Hurricane at 11pm looking more likely.
New center fix is pretty good, and would be hard to screw up at this point, with HH, Radar, and Shortwave all agreeing very closely.




Still 3.5 days out, so that gives time for one more Euro to complete and 2 more GFS before the 3 day cone is published for the N. Gulf coast. Hopefully they'll all be good, reliable runs with good initialization.


If I was in the keys, I'd assume Cat 1 minimum.
fowey rock just east of key biscayne,fl


Conditions at FWYF1 as of
(4:00 pm EDT)
2000 GMT on 08/25/2012:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 19 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
I have sein any one so hell bent on n coast of cuba...since they said it was going to texas..and went north

NHC track seems very reasonable to me right now, if anything I would forecast Isaac to go slightly west of their placement... The panhandle of FL seems like a good bet though.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Afternoon everybody.

Looking at the big picture... what are the odds Isaac can pull that moisture towards him it as it heads NW?

This is a whopper of asystem...

They already are.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Impossible 97 degree SST OMG thats cant be possible.
i meant 87 hit the wrong button
2330. Bielle
Any word (official or otherwise) about the Bahamas and the other islands north of the COC?
Quoting BahaHurican:


Afternoon everybody.

Looking at the big picture... what are the odds Isaac can pull that moisture towards him it as it heads NW?

This is a whopper of asystem...
I was wondering about that too. What if it pulls all that moisture together and becomes one massive system?
The Latest
(click to enlarge)




Can anyone tell if they see a fix from Recon or Obs that suggest a center as close as they are flying to the NE Cuban coast!
They're looking hard.

211430 2130N 07618W 8430 01472 9977 +186 +155 072003 004 /// /// 03
That NHC discussion made me nauseous. Seriously ill. Holy cow. Will continue with our preparations. Nothing like telling your son that we need to celebrate his 16th birthday tonight as we will probably be to involved in hurricane prep tomorrow.
2336. mfcmom
Any guesses on Panama City impact yet, looks to have pulled a little west? Thank you.
Quoting Grothar:
Moving much faster than earlier.


when the nightfalls
it will get up too dance
get your shutters up in s fla....its going thru Key Largo///NHC is to hell bent on west...which it aint going
Baha



afternoon... the only nasty squall we had was the one at 4:50 this morning
hardly any rain since... windy yes
Quoting RTSplayer:
The surface low near Grand Cayman is about 3/4ths closed still, but convection there is intensifying on funktop.

There's a piece of ULL centered a couple hundred miles SSW of there which may be enhancing it.

Further, it looks like there may be a mid-level circulation forming as well.

Why isn't this showing up on any of the models except the NAM?!?


I still vote for a slight rightward bias in track...because of this system you point out. I find it interesting this new system west of Isaac has been producing a very persistent burst of clouds in the Florida Straits since 12 hrs ago...pretty cool....

At the upper-levels...this system is getting split in half...into one ULL in the W Carib...another ULL over the Carolinas...the split driven by Isaac's massive ULAC. Mabye ULL over the Carolinas is too far north to influence Isaac's track...but the W Carib ULL may help continue the more poleward Isaac track.

Plus Isaac is now in the east side of a broad surface low pressure field extending into the W Carib. This new surface low pressure field has been generated by split flow upper divergence between Isaac's ULAC...W Carib ULL...and Carolinas ULL. Cyclonic flow on the east side of the surface low pressure field may also help a more poleward track for Isaac....
I got a very tough question for anyone who might have the answer! When was the last time a storm skirted Cuba (Like Isaac) and then hit the Florida Panhandle as a Moderate to strong Hurricane? I can't think of one recently if there even ever was one; maybe if you can't find one then it is unlikely Isaac will do the same???
Ominous.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
Quoting breald:
Good afternoon everyone. Things are starting to get interesting for Florida. I say Isaac will shift to the east. But that is my uneducated guess.


Yup 18z models have been over playing the High from yesterday expect some type of eastern shift in the 11pm cone. next models should be much more accurate.


Pressure quite low here today 1004mb.
Is it possible for Issac to grab that big glob in front of it and wrap it up. Its kind of in the way so I was wondering since he is so big a storm is that possible?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I still vote for a slight rightward bias in track...because of this system you point out. I find it interesting this new system west of Isaac has been producing a very persistent burst of clouds in the Florida Straits since 12 hrs ago...pretty cool....

At the upper-levels...this system is getting split in half...into one ULL in the W Carib...another ULL over the Carolinas...the split driven by Isaac's massive ULAC. Mabye ULL over the Carolinas is too far north to influence Isaac's track...but the W Carib ULL may help continue the more poleward Isaac track.

Plus Isaac is now in the east side of a broad surface low pressure field extending into the W Carib. This new surface low pressure field has been generated by split flow upper divergence between Isaac's ULAC...W Carib ULL...and Carolinas ULL. Cyclonic flow on the east side of the surface low pressure field may also help a more poleward track for Isaac....

You're over-analyzing.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
This is the first time I seen GFS ensembles this far west...Plenty even going into Louisiana

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


I guess I'm just a little confused. Isn't this the Model that has all the data in it? Why is LA. out of the cone.
After reading the discussion at 5, I'm going to wait until Monday to see how everything sets ups.
2350. spathy
Well I should have nothing to worry about. Or they missed a spot (Lee County Fl)Fort Myers.

LOL

convection is begining to build on the east side of Isaac tonight is going to be intresting
2352. Drakoen
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.
Quoting spathy:
Well I should have nothing to worry about. Or they missed a spot (Lee County Fl)Fort Myers.

LOL

you are under a Tropical storm watch
Quoting BahaHurican:


Afternoon everybody.

Looking at the big picture... what are the odds Isaac can pull that moisture towards him it as it heads NW?

This is a whopper of asystem...

It looks that way...but in my view this is Isaac and his new neighbor (new system) to his west...theory in post 2340...
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.
could the center be relocating ???
24Aug.06pmGMT: 16.7n71.3w (312.8*NWest@11.8knots) 55knots , 995millibars, TS
25Aug.12amGMT: 17.3n72.0w (311.8*NWest @ 9.0knots) 55knots , 992millibars, TS
25Aug.06amGMT: 18.1n72.7w (320.1*NWest@14.0knots) 55knots , 991millibars, TS
25Aug.12pmGMT's numbers are below, before 25Aug.6pmGMT's
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormIsaac for 25August6pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 998millibars to 1000millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 50knots(58mph)93km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Vector changed from 327.0*NWest@21.9mph(35.3km/h) to 308.1*NWest@20.6mph(33.1km/h)

CCC-CayoCoco :: DCT-RaggedIsland :: IGA-GreatInagua :: MOA-Moa :: BCA-Baracoa :: JAK-Jacmel

The southeasternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Isaac's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Isaac's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to a coastline
24Aug.6pmGMT: TS.Isaac was had been headed for passage over Cotes-de-Fer, 18miles(29kilometres)South of Miragoane (right, blob left of JAK)
25Aug.12amGMT: TS.Isaac had been for passage over Coates-de-Fer (left,blob left of JAK)
25Aug.6amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over Cajobabo,Cuba (left,nearBCAdumbbell)
Between 6:13am and 6:25am GMT, TS.Isaac made landfall on Bainet,Haiti
25Aug.12pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for a 1:50pmGMT landfall on Punta de Maisi (right,nearBCAdumbbell) and had been headed for passage 8.2miles(13.1kilometres)NEast of DuncanTown,RaggedIsland,Bahamas
25Aug.2pmGMT: TS.Isaac made landfall on PuntaCaleta,Cuba
25Aug.6pmGMT: TS.Isaac was heading for passage over (MTH)Marathon,Florida in ~19hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste hav, dct-22.152n75.691w-22.219n75.586w, iga, ccc, moa, 20.067n74.461w-20.189n74.139w, bca, 18.175n72.987w-18.182n73.042w, jak, 18.1n72.7w-19.7n73.8w, 19.7n73.8w-20.8n75.3w, mth, 19.7n73.8w-24.722n81.015w, 19.7n73.8w-20.066n74.295w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting RTSplayer:
The surface low near Grand Cayman is about 3/4ths closed still, but convection there is intensifying on funktop.

There's a piece of ULL centered a couple hundred miles SSW of there which may be enhancing it.

Further, it looks like there may be a mid-level circulation forming as well.

Why isn't this showing up on any of the models except the NAM?!?


We started the day off here with moderate winds from due north, has switched to North-West since about midday,very slight wind about 10 mph now
you know I notcied something Isaac really love cuba


I wounder though what would happen if the COC/eye just starts to shoot W soon

not saying it will or it won't but just what if

ok the low to SW kinda elongated W-E and Ridge to its NE and the weakness off the US E Coast is steering it so what if that low to the SW dips S and becomes ENE-WSW elongated the ridge builds inWward and the weakness lift N then what
2359. SykKid
Quoting Civicane49:


he really pulling away from the coast wow
2360. spathy
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are under a Tropical storm watch


I know but look at the color.(My area has none) I just figured My area was all the above. LOL
Local NWS notes that the Tampa Bay area will be in a strong pressure gradient between Isaac and the high, therefore winds will be quite robust in the area even if it passes a decent distance to our west.
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.


looks like they found the center, .2N and .2W of the 5pm

21:14:00Z 21.483N 76.267W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,474 meters
(~ 4,836 feet) 997.9 mb
(~ 29.47 inHg) - From 57 at 0 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 0.0 mph)
What the *use your imagination*?

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
you know I notcied something Isaac really love cuba


I wounder though what would happen if the COC/eye just starts to shoot W soon

not saying it will or it won't but just what if

ok the low to SW kinda elongated W-E and Ridge to its NE and the weakness off the US E Coast is steering it so what if that low to the SW dips S and becomes ENE-WSW elongated the ridge builds inWward and the weakness lift N then what


Keep it coming... doing a great job entertaining me!
Quoting Civicane49:
CAPTION: OM NOM NOM
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.


Like I said earlier, The LLC and MLC would decouple by tonight, due to the mountains over Cuba and Haiti. Its happening.
2368. RevInFL
Well in light of another shift West at 5pm. I have decided to leave for my planned trip to the panhandle. Glad the Space Coast is once again escaping. Everyone here seems to think a further shift West will happen so I am feeling pretty confident. I am enjoying following all the discussion.
Isaac seems to be moving faster than expected. At the 12 hour mark, or at 0z tonight, he was supposed to be in his current location on the GFS. He is moving.
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.


Does appear to be a developing LLC @ 22.3W 75.8N or minion circulation.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
could the center be relocating ???


On a 60 MPH Tropical Storm? very unlikely.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Local NWS notes that the Tampa Bay area will be in a strong pressure gradient between Isaac and the high, therefore winds will be quite robust in the area even if it passes a decent distance to our west.


yea they have us getting gusts to 60mph in st petersburg
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're over-analyzing.

But Isaac is more complex than it seems...at least to me anyway :)
It is going to take atleast 8 hours for the surface center to reorganize.. Chill out guys.. It did just get shredded by mountains..
2375. airmet3
Quoting milo617:
Meanwhile in the pacific....




Kadena Air Base is in the path and will see passage in about 12 hours. The ICAO code is RODN if you want to track the observations.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Does appear to be a developing LLC @ 22.3W 75.8N or minion circulation.
That's where the HWRF had it.
2377. WxLogic
Quoting Jedkins01:
Local NWS notes that the Tampa Bay area will be in a strong pressure gradient between Isaac and the high, therefore winds will be quite robust in the area even if it passes a decent distance to our west.


Should be even stronger if it decides to go above Cat 1 before it gets to Key West.
RGB show Isaac is really starting to organize the core is off the cuban coast about 20-30 miles off shore i would say
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks like they found the center, .2N and .2W of the 5pm


Pressure still 997
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I still vote for a slight rightward bias in track...because of this system you point out. I find it interesting this new system west of Isaac has been producing a very persistent burst of clouds in the Florida Straits since 12 hrs ago...pretty cool....

At the upper-levels...this system is getting split in half...into one ULL in the W Carib...another ULL over the Carolinas...the split driven by Isaac's massive ULAC. Mabye ULL over the Carolinas is too far north to influence Isaac's track...but the W Carib ULL may help continue the more poleward Isaac track.

Plus Isaac is now in the east side of a broad surface low pressure field extending into the W Carib. This new surface low pressure field has been generated by split flow upper divergence between Isaac's ULAC...W Carib ULL...and Carolinas ULL. Cyclonic flow on the east side of the surface low pressure field may also help a more poleward track for Isaac....




Look what the NHC discussion said about that new low...



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS.

THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER
.

BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT
.


THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW
...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



Other words, that is DEFINITELY another tropical low near Grand Cayman embedded in the monsoon, and it's going to pull Isaac west, and maybe even hard west, at some point around 36 hours.


Now they say it will all eventually be absorbed by Isaac, so if that's the case, this is going to be one enormous storm by the time this merger/consolidation occurs.

Look how big of an area all of that convection and the monsoon trough covers!



and

2381. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea they have us getting gusts to 60mph in st petersburg
and a possible 5-7 ft storm surge depending
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.
What might that mean Drak?
Quoting spathy:
Well I should have nothing to worry about. Or they missed a spot (Lee County Fl)Fort Myers.

LOL

Wondering where you've been the past couple days! I for one just happy we're not in the cone anymore..not good for others, stay safe all
Suggestion of two systems possibly with one west of Isaac? What??? What a strange couple days with Isaac. Great that the NHC still giving Isaac less than a ten percent chance of reaching major status. I'll check out 2340, thanks NCHurricane2009.
2386. sar2401
Quoting mfcmom:
Any guesses on Panama City impact yet, looks to have pulled a little west? Thank you.


Assume you're going to be hit by a cat 2 hurricane and plan accordingly. Until this maddening storm gets into the Gulf and establishes a vertically stacked and closed circulation, the models are going to shift back and forth with every run. If you need anything, get it now, since it will be a full blown panic if the Florida Panhandle landfall verfies.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks like they found the center, .2N and .2W of the 5pm

21:14:00Z 21.483N 76.267W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,474 meters
(~ 4,836 feet) 997.9 mb
(~ 29.47 inHg) - From 57� at 0 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 0.0 mph)


Missed it by just a tad.

Time: 21:14:30Z
Coordinates: 21.5N 76.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,472 meters (~ 4,829 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72° at 3 knots (From the ENE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.6°C (~ 65.5°F)
Dew Pt: 15.5°C (~ 59.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Does appear to be a developing LLC @ 22.3W 75.8N or minion circulation.
noticing that very near the new convection firing if that is confirmed that is much farther to the NE than the current position
Isaac has to be one of the ugliest systems of all time, lol.

2390. WxLogic
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°30'N 76°18'W (21.5N 76.3W)
Didn't we see this before with 2006 Ernesto?
they went with the 67.9mph surface winds in the vortex
2393. wpb
weatherman on nbc6 in miami knows the storm is on one leg and can only get so far before it reaches the keys. also says rain could be the main issue for dade and broward with on and off gusts to 40 mph.
four stars for john.
others should be jailed for scaring air heads
2394. Michfan
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2130'N 7618'W (21.5N 76.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (168 km) to the E (86) from Camagey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the ESE (108) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139 at 56kts (From the SE at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the E (85) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19C (66F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15C (59F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the east quadrant at 20:12:00Z
2395. HCW
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Isaac has to be one of the ugliest systems of all time, lol.



Ernesto called and said don't forget about me :)
Quoting Drakoen:
They are finding southwest winds north of the NHC coordinates... what a mess.


Wouldn't that indicate that the circulation center is north of the NHC coordinates?
Quoting tropicfreak:


Keep it coming... doing a great job entertaining me!


HEY I AIN'T ENTERTAINING ANYONE

I am be straight up all I am saying is what if that is all
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Does appear to be a developing LLC @ 22.3W 75.8N or minion circulation.


There is nothing at those coordinates, and that is confirmed by recon as they just found the center a few minutes ago. The center is right where it should be on satellite.

According to the NHS, its the Northern Gulf Coast . They didn't adjust the cone at all, but they will not move it until we get a firm hold. Watching the GFL closely now as it dropped the sharp hook back to the East late in the track...

WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR.
WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
2400. CJ5
The convection to the NW is getting closer and closer to the center. We should know in an hour or so if it can pull it in and start wrapping something up.
RTSplayer...thanks for post 2380...

This is really an interesting situation. If I understand what was said...Isaac will wobble more northward as it orbits the new system in the W Carib...then potentially veer a hard left when he absorbs the system....

I still think this W Carib tropical low has origins from split flow upper divergence between Isaac's ULAC and W Carib upper vortex...

Quoting Michfan:
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°30'N 76°18'W (21.5N 76.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (168 km) to the E (86°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 56kts (From the SE at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the east quadrant at 20:12:00Z




looks like winds will go up too 65mph at 11pm
Quoting sar2401:


Assume you're going to be hit by a cat 2 hurricane and plan accordingly. Until this maddening storm gets into the Gulf and establishes a vertically stacked and closed circulation, the models are going to shift back and forth with every run. If you need anything, get it now, since it will be a full blown panic if the Florida Panhandle landfall verfies.


It is pretty well stacked if you asked me.

850 mb



700 mb



500 mb

Can someone post hwrf link please
Quoting sar2401:


Assume you're going to be hit by a cat 2 hurricane and plan accordingly. Until this maddening storm gets into the Gulf and establishes a vertically stacked and closed circulation, the models are going to shift back and forth with every run. If you need anything, get it now, since it will be a full blown panic if the Florida Panhandle landfall verfies.


rational and sensible post....What the hell is wrong with you?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting Michfan:
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°30'N 76°18'W (21.5N 76.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (168 km) to the E (86°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 56kts (From the SE at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the east quadrant at 20:12:00Z
we may have a 70 MPH tropical storm at 11pm , so the indications are that it would very likely be a hurricane before reaching the florida keys
Quoting HCW:


Ernesto called and said don't forget about me :)

Lol, we're on a roll this year.
Quoting Tazmanian:




looks like winds will go up too 65mph at 11pm
8pm
Looks like it's pulling convection over the LLC
18 hours out gfs
2411. Gorty
Quoting Civicane49:


Is that an eye?

And it looks like his structure is getting better organized. Am I right?
2412. divdog
Quoting RTSplayer:




Look what the NHC discussion said about that new low...



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS.

THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER
.

BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT
.


THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW
...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



Other words, that is DEFINITELY another tropical low near Grand Cayman embedded in the monsoon, and it's going to pull Isaac west, and maybe even hard west, at some point around 36 hours.


Now they say it will all eventually be absorbed by Isaac, so
if that's the case, this is going to be one enormous storm by the time this merger/consolidation occurs.

Look how big of an area all of that convection and the monsoon trough covers!



and



Good explanation. Let's see how it plays out. Interesting days for sure. Keep up the good posts
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I got a very tough question for anyone who might have the answer! When was the last time a storm skirted Cuba (Like Isaac) and then hit the Florida Panhandle as a Moderate to strong Hurricane? I can't think of one recently if there even ever was one; maybe if you can't find one then it is unlikely Isaac will do the same???


Quoting wpb:
weatherman on nbc6 in miami knows the storm is on one leg and can only get so far before it reaches the keys. also says rain could be the main issue for dade and broward with on and off gusts to 40 mph.
four stars for john.
others should be jailed for scaring air heads


Either you're a troll, or that guy needs to be fired.
2415. SykKid
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Isaac has to be one of the ugliest systems of all time, lol.



he beautiful in his own way dont be mean
2416. CCkid00
Quoting jazzygal:


I guess I'm just a little confused. Isn't this the Model that has all the data in it? Why is LA. out of the cone.
After reading the discussion at 5, I'm going to wait until Monday to see how everything sets ups.


Katrina was predicted to hit in the same place as Isaac is predicted to make final landfall, until 2 1/2 days before it hit. at that point, it was over 300 miles wrong. the turn happened later than they thought. so, until the turn, we in Louisiana are watching closely. could go either way??
I don't think the center is relocating, Isaac is a little too strong for that IMO... he's just a disorganized mess. He has to sort that out before he can strengthen more.
2418. WxLogic
Given the warm shallow and semi deep shelf waters N of Cuba and Bahamas... I will not be surprised or RI to a 75 to 80 by 11PM.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
8pm



ok
2421. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°30'N 76°18'W (21.5N 76.3W)


Farther north and west of the NHC coordinates. Not surprising.
From what I'm seeing now, Isaac is going to shoot the gap between Cuba and Florida. Should keep South FL in the worst part of the storm the entire time. Interested to see how much Isaac is affected by the gyre of low pressure it is embedded in and how much that pushes the center west around the Florida Straits.
2423. LargoFl
Also from the NWS discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
.
18z GFS 24 hours:

2426. HrDelta
Quoting Seflhurricane:
8pm


Not counting the fact that we still have 2 hours before 8. It could look better, and be a touch stronger by then.
New Blog
A VERY intense feeder band is consolidating on the S side near the radar station now.

If this keeps up we'll see some symmetry restored soon.




Still lots of convection moving over Hispaniola, so the farther it gets away the better the inflow will be for the storm.

2429. shawn26
Can someone please post the 18Z GFS run?
2430. WxLogic
18Z GFS keeping it a bit too weak for quite sometime... that would be a problem in the long run, but we'll see what happens towards the end.
2431. MZT
Looks like a feed band is developing on the east side, curling around to the south. Isaac is in the water off Cuba and it's "Game On"
Presslord,
Where might I find a link to the present location of the loop eddy in the GOM?
Thanks for your help......
Quoting HCW:


Ernesto called and said don't forget about me :)


that name is forbidden lol "Ernesto". That was a nightmare for me in predicting.
Quoting WxLogic:
Given the warm shallow and semi deep shelf waters N of Cuba and Bahamas... I will not be surprised or RI to a 75 to 80 by 11PM.


I wouldn't either. Environment in the upper and mid levels are favorable, and a steep shelf with high TCHP suggests a 80mph cane is not out of the question by 11 PM EDT.

Especially since it is still relatively vertically stacked. The only thing really missing is deep convection hugging the core but that is an easy fix if the structure is still in tact as it is now.
dont forget you got a young kid runninh NHC,,,has not been their for 30 years,,he picks a model and sticks with it....hey I remember,,that Andrew was moving into Ft Lauderdale...took them 20 years to figuire out it was cat 5...Gezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Quoting Bluestorm5:




wow and I had even thought of Georges. Good work for doing the research to find the answer.
Quoting Grothar:
Moving much faster than earlier.


Ok sir.. for us newbies who have a hard time weeding out the hype and misinformation...I am going to direct my question to you. I live in MS and (barely) survived Katrina. What do these new models mean? I am NOT wish casting but people keep saying MS is out of it. I realize this is guessing at this point but I am a long time lurker and never really posted much until lately but even I know that a storm this size will affect several states when it hits. I also know that the "cone of doom" can shift at the drop of a hat. Why are so many people so sure it won't hit MS?
Quoting Gorty:


Is that an eye?

And it looks like his structure is getting better organized. Am I right?


Isaac doesn't have an eye yet, but the cloud structure appears to gradually become better organized.
My forecast and intensity for Isaac..

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Isaac has to be one of the ugliest systems of all time, lol.



Hey now don't boost Jose's self esteem.

36 Hours, GFS 850mb:

Quoting Bluestorm5:




lol but wait....it hit Mississippi not the Florida panhandle. Thats what I mean. I can't remember any storm hitting the Panhandle after being where Isaac is now.
Quoting Bielle:
Any word (official or otherwise) about the Bahamas and the other islands north of the COC?


Here on Little Exuma in the central Bahamas we have 35-40 steady, earlier today a band came through with near horizontal rain and 60mph gusts.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
New Blog


where?
So based on the latest discussion by the NHC SE LA and MS are not yet out of the woods
Would not be surprised one bit to see the 18Z GFS continue to suggest Mobile, AL. It'll be the 00Z run that I believe will jump 100 miles or so...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Either you're a troll, or that guy needs to be fired.


Yea all signs point to a possible hurricane there and nothing less than a strong TS.
.
2449. MZT
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
So based on the latest discussion by the NHC SE LA and MS are not yet out of the woods

Cone of error is only 2/3 probability after all. It could land in MS and the NHC shrugs and says "we never said we're always right"

1/3 odds of "elsewhere" are not dismissable.
2450. Dunkman
18z may be a little slower and slightly weaker than the 12z through 48h but it's pretty much the same.
Picture in 2398 shows the eye feature pretty clearly. He's not as ugly looking at that image, he looks quite ready to rap up, land interaction with the convection over Cuba stopping that process at the moment. If Isaac continues to skirt the Cuban coast this could be a continuing issue until he moves northward. What's the deal with all the left over convection over Hispaniola? Is this the largest TS ever in this position? Simply unreal in size. Sucking in this new low will make him bigger or will that process weaken him? I know that's three questions in one post, I'm just intrigued beyond belief at this point.
2452. GetReal
45 hrs
2453. GetReal
54
2454. GetReal
63
T.C.F.W.
09L/TS/I/CX
MARK
21.37N75.83W


2456. peterj
Since Isaac is moving over the water now...do you all feel like it is going to pick up intensity faster than what the NHC is predicting?
Is there a new blog?
We're next store partying with Angela guys. New Blog!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:
We're next store partying with Angela guys. New Blog!!


where?
Did yall hear TWC talk about the low level center to the southwest of Isaac that it may help steer Isaac more westward. How long will that continue. Hmmm!
Quoting Cruiser29:


where?


Link
Quoting presslord:


rational and sensible post....What the hell is wrong with you?!?!?!?!?!


This person obviously does NOT understand the rules fo this online community...where is the vitriol and un-supported supposition?
You're kidding!

Quoting Matt1989:
It is going to take atleast 8 hours for the surface center to reorganize.. Chill out guys.. It did just get shredded by mountains..


Ed Rappaport of the NHC just said a possible eyewall could be forming to its NE but that will take 5-12 hours.
Quoting WindNoise:
Did yall hear TWC talk about the low level center to the southwest of Isaac that it may help steer Isaac more westward. How long will that continue. Hmmm!
Here it is on NOAA official discussion. Also, the low pressure system over Colombia helped keep Isaac farther south away from the trough. Undoubtedly, it was a close dynamic that kept Isaac from eastern Fla. coast path. The ECMWF/EURO was correct on that part of the course and so far. Now the EURO is spinning to the east while the GFS goes west.ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A
LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER
WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS
SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA
NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.







Yes!  What does the NHC know?
Quoting peterj:
Since Isaac is moving over the water now...do you all feel like it is going to pick up intensity faster than what the NHC is predicting?

Quoting GetReal:



Euro has now gone way east...


I Officially Hate Models!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting RevInFL:
Well in light of another shift West at 5pm. I have decided to leave for my planned trip to the panhandle. Glad the Space Coast is once again escaping. Everyone here seems to think a further shift West will happen so I am feeling pretty confident. I am enjoying following all the discussion.


everyone? Not I. I don't see this going to the panhandle even.
Well what a pathetic storm for us in swfl not even gonna jet wash the house was looking forward to one cat1 winds aswell :( nvm it's only August! Plenty hurricane season left.