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Isaac downgraded to tropical storm, but impacts continue

By: Angela Fritz 10:10 PM GMT on August 29, 2012

Isaac has been downgraded to a tropical storm after losing some strength as its center is now due west of New Orleans. Isaac continues to inflict tropical storm-force winds along the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. Shell Beach, Louisiana has had sustained tropical storm-force winds since 2pm CDT on Tuesday and as of writing this, they continue to see sustained winds around 39 mph. Radar shows heavy rain is falling from central Louisiana east to Mobile, Alabama. The heaviest rain continues to fall on the east side of the storm. A particularly strong band of thunderstorms is training over Gulfport and Biloxi, Mississippi, extending around the storm to McComb, Mississippi, as well. Satellite imagery shows Isaac still has well-developed outflow at higher levels, and the (albeit messy) structure of the cyclone's core seems to be collapsing this afternoon, which illustrates the weakening trend we've seen in observations and from the Hurricane center.

Rainfall totals through 4pm CDT:
• Gretna, LA: 16.84"
• New Orleans Lakefront: 9.26"
• Gulfport, MS: 7.3"
• Mobile, AL: 6.86"

A personal weather station on Freret St. in New Orleans has recorded 20+ inches of rain since yesterday, as well.


Figure 1. Isaac as seen from the high-resolution Terra satellite Wednesday at 1:15pm EDT.

Water levels have decreased since this morning's high tide, though impacts will likely continue along the Mississippi River and coastal Mississippi and Alabama. The town of Braithwaite, Lousiana was inundated with water today as storm surge forced the river to spill over its walls. Rescue crews gathered people in boats and rafts, and in some cases, were forced to use axes on rooftops to get the people and pets out of their homes.

Below are some pictures collected from Twitter of Isaac's impacts today.


Downtown Biloxi, Mississippi inundated with water from Isaac's storm surge. (via @extremestorms)


Water reaches 10 feet high in Braithwaite, Lousiana. (via @jebetz)


Floodwall in Braithwaite holding back the river. (via @jebetz)

More pictures below to come from the AP and WunderPhotographers.

Angela
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Homes are flooded as Hurricane Isaac hits Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in Braithwaite, La. As Isaac made landfall, it was expected to dump as much as 20 inches of rain in several parts of Louisiana. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TomballTXPride:

But I would be very careful to discredit his climate credentials. That man is one of the most intelligent out there when it comes to long-term climate forecasting.

Thanks for the early morning laugh Tom!
Quoting Hhunter:


Just answered my own question. Euro shows it going up the east coast and toward New York.......

Early indeed, Bastardi has put out a forecast that puts it a little North & West of Carolina's about to ride up to the Mid atlantic...Yikes..

Watch out East coast for Leslie to be....


Euro deterministic run has it run up toward the NE, but the Euro ensemble is more like the GFS with a recurvature along 60W.

Link

Quoting wayfaringstranger:
What if anything is being done about improving our technology so that there is a smaller cone of uncertainty beyond day 4? If we could advance our technology to the point where we are within 150 miles versus 200 or 250 then that would be a win win situation.


More computational resources to run models at higher resolution, and more observational data to feed the models. The observational data is the hard part.

Even with that there are limits that can't be breached. Since it is impossible to model the complete system to 100% accuracy, there is always some amount of error. The equations used for modeling weather are very sensitive to input values. The errors propagate and continually influences calculations. By day 4 in the model, you end up with a fairly wide variance between model runs of where the storm will wind up.

The short answer is, improving hurricane forecasting is not easy and takes a lot of money. Yes, it would be a win win, but you have to convince Congress it is a win win. With the way things have been going in Congress, it would probably take a massive cat 5 smashing DC to convince them. :P


1004. LargoFl
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I stopped in LaPlace on my way home from Florida earlier this month, a very nice small town. So sad.
yes weather up there is still very bad im afraid
Euro seems to have a fair handle on TD12, taking it farther west than the rest of the models. Seems more reasonable, they're thinking that Kirk will be able to recurve it, but given how small Kirk is.. I doubt that it could cause that much of an influence on a system like TD12.


If anything it reminds me a lot of Katia last year.

Speaking of Kirk, this will probably be a hurricane at 11AM or 5PM.


Prayers out to people who are just getting absolutely pounded by Isaac's storm surge. Isaac will truly be one to remember.
1006. LargoFl
warning after warning up there..very bad this storm still is..
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 811 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUCEDALE...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF GULFCREST...MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATE LINE... LEAKESVILLE... FRUITDALE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
1007. Chiggy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
12L/TD/L/CX
MARK
14.40N/44.40W


Official as of 8am is 13.8N - 42.6W - It's definitely not at 44W - where do you get these TCFA coordinates from? Link please?
Kirk's eye is back. If it persists I could see it becoming a hurricane at 11.

1009. LargoFl
isaac could have been much worse for folks because originally he was supposed to go into the panhandle but instead went into lousiana and had more time over water but his core was all bugged up because of the dry air. Looks like kirk and leslie will be two fishes, like i havent seen that kind of track the past 3 years ^_^
Morning can anyone tell me how to get info on I10 AND I12 in new orleans. I have 4 trucks coming over from Freeport Texas today. TIA
I hope all is well with anyone possible affected by Isaac. I'm thankfully ok here in Gulfport Ms.
1013. LargoFl
1014. Chiggy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Euro seems to have a fair handle on TD12, taking it farther west than the rest of the models. Seems more reasonable, they're thinking that Kirk will be able to recurve it, but given how small Kirk is.. I doubt that it could cause that much of an influence on a system like TD12.


If anything it reminds me a lot of Katia last year.

Speaking of Kirk, this will probably be a hurricane at 11AM or 5PM.


Prayers out to people who are just getting absolutely pounded by Isaac's storm surge. Isaac will truly be one to remember.

Teddy: Look at my post on how incorrect the 00Z EURO initialization is on TD12, has it at 16N-46W in 24 hours. It's already at 44W and 13.8N, moving rapidly WEST.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

But I would be very careful to discredit his climate credentials. That man is one of the most intelligent out there when it comes to long-term climate forecasting.


Oh....oh my sides. XD

Tell me, do you have a professional act or do you just improv? You're one funny guy.
Quoting Chiggy:


Official as of 8am is 13.8N - 42.6W - It's definitely not at 44W - where do you get these TCFA coordinates from? Link please?
there my own based upon sat presentation guessimate look at the image the mark is the centre of image

T.C.F.A.
12L/TD/L/CX
MARK
14.40N/44.40W
Quoting Xyrus2000:


More computational resources to run models at higher resolution, and more observational data to feed the models. The observational data is the hard part.

Even with that there are limits that can't be breached. Since it is impossible to model the complete system to 100% accuracy, there is always some amount of error. The equations used for modeling weather are very sensitive to input values. The errors propagate and continually influences calculations. By day 4 in the model, you end up with a fairly wide variance between model runs of where the storm will wind up.

The short answer is, improving hurricane forecasting is not easy and takes a lot of money. Yes, it would be a win win, but you have to convince Congress it is a win win. With the way things have been going in Congress, it would probably take a massive cat 5 smashing DC to convince them. :P




The next major improvement will be the unmanned
aircraft, providing longer recon times and more
data input.
1018. Hhunter
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Oh....oh my sides. XD

Tell me, do you have a professional act or do you just improv? You're one funny guy.
So, I guess your a successful always correct tropical forecaster. I would like to follow your work. Just message me and I will.
1019. Chiggy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there my own based upon sat presentation guessimate look at the image the mark is the centre of image

T.C.F.A.
12L/TD/L/CX
MARK
14.40N/44.40W

Ok, In that case I believe it's just below 14N and probably between 43-44W...
Quoting severstorm:
Morning can anyone tell me how to get info on I10 AND I12 in new orleans. I have 4 trucks coming over from Freeport Texas today. TIA


Check with the state police on road closures. Yesterday parts of 10 and 12 were closed. They may have to go up to 20.
1022. SLU
Although TD 12 has been moving rapidly westwards at 20mph over the last 24 hours, all of the computer models show a WNW turn today and passing clear of the islands over the weekend. It is very unlikely that the system will do otherwise.

west.nile.national.epidemic
Quoting severstorm:
Morning can anyone tell me how to get info on I10 AND I12 in new orleans. I have 4 trucks coming over from Freeport Texas today. TIA


Link

Link for La Highway info.
1025. LargoFl
Quoting severstorm:
Morning can anyone tell me how to get info on I10 AND I12 in new orleans. I have 4 trucks coming over from Freeport Texas today. TIA
here you go I-10 info..good luck ok.....Link
117

WHXX01 KWBC 301212

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1212 UTC THU AUG 30 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE (AL122012) 20120830 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120830 1200 120831 0000 120831 1200 120901 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 42.6W 15.2N 44.6W 17.3N 47.2W 19.9N 50.6W

BAMD 13.8N 42.6W 14.6N 45.3W 15.6N 47.8W 16.8N 50.1W

BAMM 13.8N 42.6W 15.0N 45.2W 16.4N 48.0W 18.1N 50.9W

LBAR 13.8N 42.6W 14.6N 46.0W 15.5N 49.7W 16.4N 53.4W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120901 1200 120902 1200 120903 1200 120904 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.1N 54.7W 24.8N 61.5W 25.2N 66.0W 23.5N 66.3W

BAMD 18.1N 52.0W 21.2N 55.7W 25.4N 56.8W 29.9N 55.4W

BAMM 19.7N 54.1W 21.7N 59.6W 23.1N 61.7W 24.7N 59.9W

LBAR 17.4N 56.7W 19.3N 60.7W 23.3N 61.7W 26.5N 61.4W

SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 80KTS 81KTS

DSHP 68KTS 78KTS 80KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 42.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 39.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 35.6W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting aislinnpaps:


Check with the state police on road closures. Yesterday parts of 10 and 12 were closed. They may have to go up to 20.
Thank you very much.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning can anyone tell me how to get info on I10 AND I12 in new orleans. I have 4 trucks coming over from Freeport Texas today. TIA

Looking at this. Not very good.

Aye...er....Eye, Cap'n Kirk!

Morning all, the 1 am Saturday location for Issac is probably 30 miles from me if that.....if we get a good soaking rain we will be dancing in the streets...my well water is starting to taste funny, think it's getting low....deer and other wildlife are desperate for forage (someone found 3 who looked as if they had starved), just not a pretty picture.
Prayers and positive thoughts going out to all who have been affected by Issac.
Quoting canehater1:


Link

Link for La Highway info.
Thank you all
morning guys hmm TD12 looking good can't wait on advisory at 11am

if I was to put the LLCOC location I'd put it at 13.4N 43.4W
That is a strong TS/border line hurricane.
1034. Max1023
Quoting WxNerdVA:
Aye...er....Eye, Cap'n Kirk!



Look at the speed that convective burst is rotating - this is likely a category 2 hurricane right now. Kirk is so small that it can spin up extremely fast.
1035. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:


It is Tropical depression 12 as I predicted 3 days ago. exaclty.


I did pretty good for Isaac 6 days out... Nailed the intensity, but landfall was 100 miles west of where I predicted...

So does that mean I only have to eat half the crow???
Quoting Hhunter:
So, I guess your a successful always correct tropical forecaster. I would like to follow your work. Just message me and I will.


No. For some like Xyrus & Neapolitan, bashing is more fun, since they lack the credentials of their own. It's easy to sit back hiding behind a handle on a weather forum in the basement of their parents house and ridicule other professionals. We see it all the time here with the NHC bashing. No different. I wouldn't get too bend out of shape on it. It is what it is.
Quoting wxchaser97:
That is a strong TS/border line hurricane.
A fish who nobody cares.
1038. ncstorm
From the Associated Press






kirk will be one of the tiniest hurricane I ever saw. it is actually cute to see...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys hmm TD12 looking good can't wait on advisory at 11am

if I was to put the LLCOC location I'd put it at 13.4N 43.4W


only thing i can tell ya at the moment
is this one will not be going anywhere
near the cayman islands
you are safe at this time
Quoting Hhunter:
So, I guess your a successful always correct tropical forecaster. I would like to follow your work. Just message me and I will.


No, and I never claimed to be.

There are many professional meteorologists out there who don't have the ego and personality issues Bastardi has. Most of them are too busy doing real actual research to go grandstanding in public.

As far as climate is concerned, Bastardi has absolutely 0 credibility. He has no research credentials in the field, yet seems to think he knows more than real climate scientists. His predictions have been consistently wrong in this area, from his supposed "global cooling" to arctic ice recovery.
1042. ncstorm




1043. VR46L
Kirk is a lil cutie

In Rainbow



and visable
I'm just doing a little reading on storm surge records around the USA and came across this....

Highest Theoretical U.S. Storm Surge

The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets.


What sort of storm surge would there be if a Cat 5 Hurricane hit New Bedford. Why did NOAA only do up to Cat 4 and not Cat 5? Wouldn't a Cat 5 Hurricane have higher storm surge than a Cat 4?
1045. Michfan
Quoting SLU:
Although TD 12 has been moving rapidly westwards at 20mph over the last 24 hours, all of the computer models show a WNW turn today and passing clear of the islands over the weekend. It is very unlikely that the system will do otherwise.



It should have turned by now if it was going to. I don't see it happening at the speed its going right now.
BOLD PREDICTION: 70 MPH Kirk at 11... crow me if I'm wrong
Quoting SLU:
Although TD 12 has been moving rapidly westwards at 20mph over the last 24 hours, all of the computer models show a WNW turn today and passing clear of the islands over the weekend. It is very unlikely that the system will do otherwise.



yeah the models thought Isaac was going to pass N of the Islands as well, and we all saw how that plan worked out.

as I said, I don't buy it. Kirk is to small, weakness is small and filling back in, TD12 is too far S and moving fast. I don't know man, this may just follow the rest of the storms and into the caribbean they may go, well that look like that is the pattern that they are taking this year.
Quoting Michfan:


It should have turned by now if it was going to. I don't see it happening at the speed its going right now.


Neither the Euro or the GFS get 98L any further west than Bermuda. Its a fish !!
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm just doing a little reading on storm surge records around the USA and came across this....

Highest Theoretical U.S. Storm Surge

The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets.


What sort of storm surge would there be if a Cat 5 Hurricane hit New Bedford. Why did NOAA only do up to Cat 4 and not Cat 5? Wouldn't a Cat 5 Hurricane have higher storm surge than a Cat 4?


I could be totally wrong, but it's possible with the cooler waters up there they didn't think it could sustain a Cat 5 that far north.
So with Isaac being decoupled now is there any chance that they shift the QPF south and east since that is where the energy is lining up right now?

I'm just not buying this...especially with wording like this from my local NWS.

PUSHING A WEAKENED TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO A VERY DRY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PULL A LOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE CORE...ERODING THE MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
SPOT IN THE RIDGE IS MORE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM THAN PREV
ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE PROGRESSION.


Quoting TomballTXPride:


No. For some like Xyrus & Neapolitan, bashing is more fun, since they lack the credentials of their own. It's easy to sit back hiding behind a handle on a weather forum in the basement of their parents house and ridicule other professionals. We see it all the time here with the NHC bashing. No different. I wouldn't get too bend out of shape on it. It is what it is.


Now to Kirk we go. Cute lil bugger on Infrared.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.



ouch
I have an odd question:

I've noticed that water levels in our canal are higher than I've ever seen them. 2-3" higher. With all the thoughts on sea-level rise this century due to the ice in Greenland melting, etc... I wondered:

Is it possible that the drought in North America can affect the sea level temporarily? So much water out of lakes, rivers, even soil?

I know, probably crazy, but thought I'd ask your opinion.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm just doing a little reading on storm surge records around the USA and came across this....

Highest Theoretical U.S. Storm Surge

The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets.


What sort of storm surge would there be if a Cat 5 Hurricane hit New Bedford. Why did NOAA only do up to Cat 4 and not Cat 5? Wouldn't a Cat 5 Hurricane have higher storm surge than a Cat 4?


Environmental condition that far north wouldn't be able to supprt Cat 5 hurricane. Cat 4 is the theoretical maximum for the area
A few of the models have Isaac making almost a u turn. Any experienced meteorologist care to comment?
Quoting TomballTXPride:


No. For some like Xyrus & Neapolitan, bashing is more fun, since they lack the credentials of their own. It's easy to sit back handing behind a handle on a weather forum in the basement of their parents house and ridicule other professionals. We see it all the time here with the NHC bashing. No different. I wouldn't get too bend out of shape on it. It is what it is.


I haven't lived in my parent's basement for a good 20 years now, but thanks for sharing your wonderful insight into other people. Insults get you everywhere I hear.

I don't bash the NHC. Nor do I make any tropical predictions. Nor do I claim to have the credentials to make such predictions.

I bash Bastardi because his track record is terrible, yet he still goes around pretending he's God's gift to tropical weather forecasting. Worse, he's also trying to do the same thing with climate science.

You can be a good forecaster without being an ego-maniacal ass about it.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


No. For some like Xyrus & Neapolitan, bashing is more fun, since they lack the credentials of their own. It's easy to sit back hiding behind a handle on a weather forum in the basement of their parents house and ridicule other professionals. We see it all the time here with the NHC bashing. No different. I wouldn't get too bend out of shape on it. It is what it is.


Dude... you can't get much more off-base than this. While nearly all of us on here have no credentials for forecasting, quite a few prominent people in the weather industry also lack credentials to back up their claims. One of them stands on his soapbox frequently to vehemently press points about global warming, but ALL of the science out there disputes his view. Yet he still presses it. It is similar to someone who took a few biology classes and an intro to medicine class telling a seasoned doctor how to treat a disease.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, and I never claimed to be.

There are many professional meteorologists out there who don't have the ego and personality issues Bastardi has. Most of them are too busy doing real actual research to go grandstanding in public.

As far as climate is concerned, Bastardi has absolutely 0 credibility. He has no research credentials in the field, yet seems to think he knows more than real climate scientists. His predictions have been consistently wrong in this area, from his supposed "global cooling" to arctic ice recovery.

Spot-on.
1058. Grothar
Quoting MTWX:


I did pretty good for Isaac 6 days out... Nailed the intensity, but landfall was 100 miles west of where I predicted...

So does that mean I only have to eat half the crow???


Yes, you have to eat the whole crow, feathers and all :)
If you remember, as I know you do. I wrote that Isaac would not move over the DR, but over the Isthmus of Haiti, then make a sharp turn over the Windward passage and cross the Easterb end of Cuba and move NW toward the Florida Keys, the move directly on a course NW just slightly west of New Orleans and slow down. A number of bloggers were posting that no storm ever made that kind of track.
So I see we've got TD 12 now, which will certainly become TS Leslie probably by this afternoon or tonight. What's the latest on that? Is the westward trend still continuing?
1060. MahFL
I notice Isaac's eye tightened up on radar, I wonder if it sucked up some moisture from that big lake NE of Alexandria ?
Quoting watercayman:
I have an odd question:

I've noticed that water levels in our canal are higher than I've ever seen them. 2-3" higher. With all the thoughts on sea-level rise this century due to the ice in Greenland melting, etc... I wondered:

Is it possible that the drought in North America can affect the sea level temporarily? So much water out of lakes, rivers, even soil?

I know, probably crazy, but thought I'd ask your opinion.

Not really, because the drought, while severe, is limited in global scope. Also, the water hasn't "disappeared". It is somewhere, just not in the midwest.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, you have to eat the whole crow, feathers and all :)
If you remember, as I know you do. I wrote that Isaac would not move over the DR, but over the Isthmus of Haiti, then make a sharp turn over the Windward passage and cross the Western end of Cuba and move NW toward the Florida Keys, the move directly on a course NW just slightly west of New Orleans and slow down. A number of bloggers were posting that no storm ever made that kind of track.


Thus..."No crow for Gro"
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
BOLD PREDICTION: 70 MPH Kirk at 11... crow me if I'm wrong
Yeah....and make a turn to New York City.
Quoting jeffs713:

Not really, because the drought, while severe, is limited in global scope. Also, the water hasn't "disappeared". It is somewhere, just not in the midwest.


Yeah, kinda figured that. Thought I'd ask. Thanks for the response!
1065. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, you have to eat the whole crow, feathers and all :)
If you remember, as I know you do. I wrote that Isaac would not move over the DR, but over the Isthmus of Haiti, then make a sharp turn over the Windward passage and cross the Western end of Cuba and move NW toward the Florida Keys, the move directly on a course NW just slightly west of New Orleans and slow down. A number of bloggers were posting that no storm ever made that kind of track.


You mean Eastern?? LOL! ;)
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, you have to eat the whole crow, feathers and all :)
If you remember, as I know you do. I wrote that Isaac would not move over the DR, but over the Isthmus of Haiti, then make a sharp turn over the Windward passage and cross the Western end of Cuba and move NW toward the Florida Keys, the move directly on a course NW just slightly west of New Orleans and slow down. A number of bloggers were posting that no storm ever made that kind of track.

Until now.

Here is your cookie, Gro.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


only thing i can tell ya at the moment
is this one will not be going anywhere
near the cayman islands
you are safe at this time

sigh... Keeps I am very dissipointed in you. I thought you were not like them. well I know now very immature of you

I did not say anything about me nor the Cayman Islands so I am really dishearted due to what you just said.

I feeling like poofing you but, I knew you to be a valuable resourse but, certainly not as those immature idots that keep this carp going on and on.
Quoting Chucktown:


Neither the Euro or the GFS get 98L any further west than Bermuda. Its a fish !!

Don't say that. Taz will POOF you.
Quoting MahFL:
I notice Isaac's eye tightened up on radar, I wonder if it sucked up some moisture from that big lake NE of Alexandria ?

Isaac's circulation is much too large to be influenced by a single lake. More likely it is tightening due to a mesovortex, or topography... or it could just be a visual thing.
Hi, WU people!
on a computer at my husband's office. We are safe and sound in Pearl River, La. no power or internet but good. Slidell, La not so lucky, the areas near the lake are flooded by storm surge and the pumps failed in Olde Towne Slidell, flooding it. also people are being evacuatd since an earthen levee was breached, flooding the area below Fremaux with five feet or so. that is what I hear on the radio anyway. These areas were all destroyed by Katrina and while this flooding is not so bad it is heartbreaking to see. Slidell is more like gulfport than NOLA in terms of hurricane effects. The wind and rain is still coming the winds are 30 or so with higher gusts. The rain is at least not continuous like yesterday. anyway, say a prayer the storm moves along so we can all clean up and the damage stops.
most of the models are depending on this deep trough to pull TD12/Leslie to the northwest. at the moment the turn has not materialised and the system continues on a west track. if one has to look at the low and mid level flow, it is quite apparent that TD12 will continue west for sometime. what cocerns me ,is that the system is moving so fast ,that it may miss the trough.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, you have to eat the whole crow, feathers and all :)
If you remember, as I know you do. I wrote that Isaac would not move over the DR, but over the Isthmus of Haiti, then make a sharp turn over the Windward passage and cross the Western end of Cuba and move NW toward the Florida Keys, the move directly on a course NW just slightly west of New Orleans and slow down. A number of bloggers were posting that no storm ever made that kind of track.



proof please ;)
1073. MahFL
Quoting coondini:
So I see we've got TD 12 now, which will certainly become TS Leslie probably by this afternoon or tonight. What's the latest on that? Is the westward trend still continuing?


Fish.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


More computational resources to run models at higher resolution, and more observational data to feed the models. The observational data is the hard part.

Even with that there are limits that can't be breached. Since it is impossible to model the complete system to 100% accuracy, there is always some amount of error. The equations used for modeling weather are very sensitive to input values. The errors propagate and continually influences calculations. By day 4 in the model, you end up with a fairly wide variance between model runs of where the storm will wind up.

The short answer is, improving hurricane forecasting is not easy and takes a lot of money. Yes, it would be a win win, but you have to convince Congress it is a win win. With the way things have been going in Congress, it would probably take a massive cat 5 smashing DC to convince them. :P


There was only one long range hurricane model published this year that pointed towards Isaac as the one to watch, and it cost you nothing.

It was written in the form of a poem.

April 05, 2012

"No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men."


1) Isaac's birth was announced by angels, and they too have wings.

2) Isaac returned to a place of former fury, where men had not been prepared.

3) Isaac circled on the anniversary date in that former place.

4) Seven is the number of perfection, completeness, but above all, transition.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
So with Isaac being decoupled now is there any chance that they shift the QPF south and east since that is where the energy is lining up right now?

I'm just not buying this...especially with wording like this from my local NWS.

PUSHING A WEAKENED TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO A VERY DRY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PULL A LOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE CORE...ERODING THE MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
SPOT IN THE RIDGE IS MORE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM THAN PREV
ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE PROGRESSION.



There is still a lot of moisture with Isaac. He still has a large circulation, and that is going to pull a heck of a lot of moisture up with him. The ridge is going to tear up his western side, tho. (in other words, he won't "poof" like Don did last year)
Quoting Charliesgirl:
Hi, WU people!
on a computer at my husband's office. We are safe and sound in Pearl River, La. no power or internet but good. Slidell, La not so lucky, the areas near the lake are flooded by storm surge and the pumps failed in Olde Towne Slidell, flooding it. also people are being evacuatd since an earthen levee was breached, flooding the area below Fremaux with five feet or so. that is what I hear on the radio anyway. These areas were all destroyed by Katrina and while this flooding is not so bad it is heartbreaking to see. Slidell is more like gulfport than NOLA in terms of hurricane effects. The wind and rain is still coming the winds are 30 or so with higher gusts. The rain is at least not continuous like yesterday. anyway, say a prayer the storm moves along so we can all clean up and the damage stops.


Wow. Thank you for the update. Prayers are out to those people.
1077. kwgirl
Good morning everyone. Went home last night and watched TWC with all the scenes of rescue. My heart and prayers go out to all those people. I logged on the WU from home and read the comments. Some of the comments were really heart tugging. It is amazing how our technology has advanced that people without power using their computers or smart phones on battery can communicate what is going on AT THE MOMENT. I believe this has helped rescuers to find the trapped people, or am I wrong? I think this alone has helped to save peoples' lives. Here in Key West they would have told us "Too bad, you should have evacuated." The people on the Gulf Coast have BIG HEARTS. Be nice to each other and have a good day all:)
Expecting that the intensity forecast and track forecast will be going north of the islands as a hurricane. Good chance this will be our first long tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Not too often you get a Cape Verde major hurricane with an "L" name, TD12 should be an interesting one to track.
Quoting stoormfury:
most of the models are depending on this deep trough to pull TD12/Leslie to the northwest. at the moment the turn has not materialised and the system continues on a west track. if one has to look at the low and mid level flow, it is quite apparent that TD12 will continue west for sometime. what cocerns me ,is that the system is moving so fast ,that it may miss the trough.


I think you are correct I too looked at low to mid level fow and saw this

and I was also thinking that his fast movements would miss the trough
Quoting jeffs713:

Until now.

Here is your cookie, Gro.



Stop that!!! You making me hungy!!!!
The blog seems to have many anglers. rod line hooks and sinker
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Expecting that the intensity forecast and track forecast will be going north of the islands as a hurricane. Good chance this will be our first long tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Not too often you get a Cape Verde major hurricane with an "L" name, Leslie should be an interesting one to track.

Most of the storms have been interesting to track, but just in their own special ways.
Quoting Chiggy:

Teddy: Look at my post on how incorrect the 00Z EURO initialization is on TD12, has it at 16N-46W in 24 hours. It's already at 44W and 13.8N, moving rapidly WEST.


Per XTRAP motion the current heading is heading WNW.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


No. For some like Xyrus & Neapolitan, bashing is more fun, since they lack the credentials of their own. It's easy to sit back hiding behind a handle on a weather forum in the basement of their parents house and ridicule other professionals. We see it all the time here with the NHC bashing. No different. I wouldn't get too bend out of shape on it. It is what it is.


Sir for your info.....Neapolitan has 3 PHD's in GW and he was valedictorian in the GW University (founded by Al Gore) so show a little more respect!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I think you are correct I too looked at low to mid level fow and saw this

and I was also thinking that his fast movements would miss the trough


Is the big high that steered Isaac westward there?
I'd like to state that even though I just joined recently, I've lurked for a long time and that I don't think that Neapolitan and Xyrus2000 should be bashed for their views... I haven't seen them go at anyone but trolls and conspiracy theorists...and when they do, is always short and fairly civil, considering what could be said.

Just my 0.02$, we should get back to the weather.
Good morning everyone. I have been out of touch the past day or so. Has anyone heard from the folks in the New Orleans area -- specifically anyone heard from Patrap, tkeith or weatherh98 ?
Louisiana GOHSEP@GOHSEP
As of 7:45 a.m., the Public Service Commission reports 900,868 homes without power, which is around 47 percent of homes.
Going to guess 70mph per the ATCF, but since the organization has continued to increase since the ATCF bump in intensity was given it wouldn't at all shock me to see Hurricane Kirk. Raw ADT is starting to climb and whenever the scene type changes to "EYE" you'll probably see some quick intensification. Just goes to show that these small type storms in a favorable environment can really begin to intensify. NHC was at the first advisory expecting a 40mph peak I believe.
If TD12 continue too much time to the west,Antilles needs to watch this one.So here we go again.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
There was only one long range hurricane model published this year that pointed towards Isaac as the one to watch, and it cost you nothing.

It was written in the form of a poem.

April 05, 2012

"No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men."


1) I



Why do you always tell us this after the fact?
If you are so knowledgable, why not tell us before so we will know and prepare?
Oh.....because its all....a lie..sorry to say

You could have interpreted that poem to mean anything when a disaster happens, it proves NOTHING.
Quoting southfla:
Good morning everyone. I have been out of touch the past day or so. Has anyone heard from the folks in the New Orleans area -- specifically anyone heard from Patrap, tkeith or weatherh98 ?

I haven't heard anything, but I do know power is out in a vast majority of the NOLA metro area.

When StormJunkie or Presslord hop on, they might have more info.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Louisiana GOHSEP@GOHSEP
As of 7:45 a.m., the Public Service Commission reports 900,868 homes without power, which is around 47 percent of homes.

Ouch, thats a lot of people. Hopefully that number will fall soon.
Quoting southfla:
Good morning everyone. I have been out of touch the past day or so. Has anyone heard from the folks in the New Orleans area -- specifically anyone heard from Patrap, tkeith or weatherh98 ?


Have not heard from the other two, but last I heard Pat was doing fine.


Once a storm is below 15N at 45W it has a good chance to make it at least into the Eastern Caribbean "John Hope rule" if I remember correctly.
1097. MTWX
Quoting southfla:
Good morning everyone. I have been out of touch the past day or so. Has anyone heard from the folks in the New Orleans area -- specifically anyone heard from Patrap, tkeith or weatherh98 ?


Patrap and tkeith are good. They intermittently post on FB to keep everyone up to speed, but as far as I know both are without power right now.

Haven't heard from weatherh98...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Going to guess 70mph per the ATCF, but since the organization has continued to increase since the ATCF bump in intensity was given it wouldn't at all shock me to see Hurricane Kirk. Raw ADT is starting to climb and whenever the scene type changes to "EYE" you'll probably see some quick intensification. Just goes to show that these small type storms in a favorable environment can really begin to intensify. NHC was at the first advisory expecting a 40mph peak I believe.

With the eye showing and ADT #'s rising and overall good organization I would not be surprised at a 75mph hurricane at 11am. Yes, they were expecting that as peak the first advisory.
Quoting MahFL:


Fish.
Hey,Fish.Change your menu.
1100. Chiggy
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Per XTRAP motion the current heading is heading WNW.


Sure,just saw that and I am confused. Current reported coordinates on wundergroungd are 13.9N - 41.9W and current location is 13.8N - 44W per NRL so not sure why XTRP showing WNW.
In any case, more importantly my point was that TD12 is south of the major model runs at this time and moving rapidly WEST. Also 00Z Euro is about 12hrs slower with TD12
Quoting jeffs713:

I haven't heard anything, but I do know power is out in a vast majority of the NOLA metro area.

When StormJunkie or Presslord hop on, they might have more info.


They are both heavily involved in the Portlight efforts right now. He is broadcasting right now LIVE I think he's heading somewhere to do tree cleanup.
The sirens are going off again here in Saraland, Al

sheri
1103. Chiggy
Quoting stormpetrol:


Once a storm is below 15N at 45W it has a good chance to make it at least into the Eastern Caribbean "John Hope rule" if I remember correctly.


This is about 3 hours old and from satellite loops I think TD12 has moved close 44W just south of 14N - Anybody agrees with this?
Early estimates in for Isaac's damage is around 1.5 billion.
Link

That will probably go higher when all said and done, to more like 3 billion due to flooding. Going to bet that due to all the damage, flooding and repeats of old headaches that Louisiana isn't going to be forgetting Isaac come the next WMO meeting and could very well be retired off the naming list.
Quoting coondini:
So I see we've got TD 12 now, which will certainly become TS Leslie probably by this afternoon or tonight. What's the latest on that? Is the westward trend still continuing?


Recurver
Quoting jeffs713:

There is still a lot of moisture with Isaac. He still has a large circulation, and that is going to pull a heck of a lot of moisture up with him. The ridge is going to tear up his western side, tho. (in other words, he won't "poof" like Don did last year)


We'll see how that forecast pans out. Hopefully most percipitation won't end up as virga.
Its now 12L on the floater page, Navy shows 12L as well.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Once a storm is below 15N at 45W it has a good chance to make it at least into the Eastern Caribbean "John Hope rule" if I remember correctly.
Absolutely right.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm just doing a little reading on storm surge records around the USA and came across this....

Highest Theoretical U.S. Storm Surge

The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets.


What sort of storm surge would there be if a Cat 5 Hurricane hit New Bedford. Why did NOAA only do up to Cat 4 and not Cat 5? Wouldn't a Cat 5 Hurricane have higher storm surge than a Cat 4?

Climatologically speaking there is a near zero chance of a category 5 hurricane making it that far north.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Once a storm is below 15N at 45W it has a good chance to make it at least into the Eastern Caribbean "John Hope rule" if I remember correctly.


If it where to make it into the Caribbean, which it probably will not, it would face the same exact issues dealing with trade winds and we'd be lucky to see it strengthen at all. However, this looks bent on going north of the islands this time around, so quicker intensification. We'll probably be talking about closing out the month of August with 12-6-0.
Giving ya'll a update..I'm in Destrehan La. Had a total of 11.89 in. so far..Power came back on in my area around 5:30 yesterday..Power was out about 17 hours..Lots of branches,leaves,and some trees down..No street flooding...Stay safe..
1112. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:

I haven't heard anything, but I do know power is out in a vast majority of the NOLA metro area.

When StormJunkie or Presslord hop on, they might have more info.


StormJunkie may not be on the Blog today, but Press will likely pop in a few times to provide Portlight updates. Junkie is in Biloxi right now heading up the Portlight team, so he is really busy.
Ummm.... if i were living in the islands right now, i would be a little nervous. This baby is moving fast! By the time it reaches the longitude of the islands it looks like it will be a hurricane. Best CV storm of the year so far.

If that little blob right by the islands is moving straight to the west then I think the models need some "modeling of their own". Look at the water vapor, I don't think this storm will turn north in time. If i'm wrong I will be the first to admit it on this blog two-three days from now. But if I'm right, do I get a cookie???
1114. icmoore
Quoting MTWX:


Patrap and tkeith are good. They intermittently post on FB to keep everyone up to speed, but as far as I know both are without power right now.

Haven't heard from weatherh98...


Weather98 was posting yesterday morning and very much feeling Isaacs' effects.
..boldly go.. where no man has gone before..
My thoughts are with all our WU bloggers and their friends and family. What an agonizing 24 hours it must have been and it isn't quite over. The noise of the wind can drive you around the bend at some point and you just pray for it to stop.

The flooding looks horrendous and far more widespread than after Katrina. The images will start pouring in from the media today and I think the nation will be shocked at what a storm that is "only a cat 1" can do. I hope the message sticks in the minds of those who are at risk during hurricane season that every storm is different and preparing for the worst is always worthwhile insurance for your family.

I am contributing to Portlight today, the charity created and operated by some of fellow WU members. I hope many more people who read this blog will consider doing the same or donating to their preferred charity. Portlight does incredible work providing assistance to the under-served communities with special needs which frequently are in out of the way impacted areas which might not see government help for weeks.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
The sirens are going off again here in Saraland, Al

sheri


Stay safe, Sherri. Let us know how you're doing, tornados just keep coming over there.
Sea Level...

Kid cay: On the Florida east coast we have something called Fall sea level rise. In the Indian River Lagoon this is usually accounts for about a foot of sustained water elevation rise across all tidal cycles. Typically it occurs in Sept. Oct. Nov.

I suspect that your canal, if open to the ocean some distance away, is experiencing an onshore wind set up pushing water up the canal OR a low pressure wave near the outlet that is inhibiting outflow and backing up water to your location.

How long has the water level been elevated?
How long have you been observing the water levels in the canal?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Louisiana GOHSEP@GOHSEP
As of 7:45 a.m., the Public Service Commission reports 900,868 homes without power, which is around 47 percent of homes.


That's a lot more than what Entergy is reporting - 694655 (http://viewoutage.entergy.com/la.aspx)- on their website. It'll be a while before the power is restored since they're trying to get in to assess damage first and then have to get materials placed and get the crews in to the affected areas. My husband & his crew (and many other companies) are still waiting for the call to head out - it'll take at least 2 days for many of the linemen just to get to LA.
Quoting MTWX:


StormJunkie may not be on the Blog today, but Press will likely pop in a few times to provide Portlight updates. Junkie is in Biloxi right now heading up the Portlight team, so he is really busy.


Good to hear that Portlight is lending a hand in the recovery process. At the end of the day it's a helping hand that is the best blessing after a storm.
I don't really see much WNW movement to TD12 at the moment... just a west movement... but it is too early to tell if the models are wrong.

There is a lot of agreement in the models that TD12 should pass north of the islands... guess we will have to wait and see.
Quoting bayoubug:
Giving ya'll a update..I'm in Destrehan La. Had a total of 11.89 in. so far..Power came back on in my area around 5:30 yesterday..Power was out about 17 hours..Lots of branches,leaves,and some trees down..No street flooding...Stay safe..


Glad you're all right and your electric is back on.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Going to guess 70mph per the ATCF, but since the organization has continued to increase since the ATCF bump in intensity was given it wouldn't at all shock me to see Hurricane Kirk. Raw ADT is starting to climb and whenever the scene type changes to "EYE" you'll probably see some quick intensification. Just goes to show that these small type storms in a favorable environment can really begin to intensify. NHC was at the first advisory expecting a 40mph peak I believe.
Kirk's environment wasn't very favorable when it first formed, it has dealing with a lot of dry air and moderate wind shear. Pretty neat to see it organize that quickly, despite unfavorable conditions.
Quoting TampaCat5:

Climatologically speaking there is a near zero chance of a category 5 hurricane making it that far north.

But if as you say a Cat 5 couldn't make it... How could a cat 4 make it. Surely if a cat 4 could make it why couldn't a cat 5?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Glad you're all right and your electric is back on.
Thanx
1126. Chiggy
Quoting dartboardmodel:
Ummm.... if i were living in the islands right now, i would be a little nervous. This baby is moving fast! By the time it reaches the longitude of the islands it looks like it will be a hurricane. Best CV storm of the year so far.

If that little blob right by the islands is moving straight to the west then I think the models need some "modeling of their own". Look at the water vapor, I don't think this storm will turn north in time. If i'm wrong I will be the first to admit it on this blog two-three days from now. But if I'm right, do I get a cookie???

Indeed! LOL
Tornado Warning in Hancock County
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if as you say a Cat 5 couldn't make it... How could a cat 4 make it. Surely if a cat 4 could make it why couldn't a cat 5?


Hypothetically, a Category 5 *could* make it to that latitude while strengthening if it is lined up with the recurving trough just enough to give it some very good ventilation but realistically a low end Category 4 is the max you could ever see in that situation.. Hurricane Ophelia last year did exactly that as a Category 4.
This will be a fully developed storm approaching the Antilles in a few days so they need to "hope" that it will turn off to the NW. After that, too early to tell at this point whether it will ever be a threat to the US or Bermuda............Anything could theoretically happen but it will not be a weak system drifting into the Caribbean and developing in the Western Caribbean.

Just have to keep an eye on the models.....The current runs are pretty much useless until a few days away when the models can grasp a good handle on the strength and synoptic pattern. Generally, we have seen that the models have a hard time with weaker systems and a better time with developed systems.
Quoting Chiggy:


This is about 3 hours old and from satellite loops I think TD12 has moved close 44W just south of 14N - Anybody agrees with this?

yep though I would say more like 13.4N/13.5N
1131. VR46L
TD 12 is going to face a bit of a battle with dry air but should overcome it ...



and in rainbow
The rain band coming into extreme W. AL and extreme E.
MS has a number of tornado warnings and flash flood warnings associated with it. We actually got some rain
in Lake Charles this morning, so my last crow sandwich
is being prepared by the other half...why does she have to grin like that?
1133. Chiggy
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if as you say a Cat 5 couldn't make it... How could a cat 4 make it. Surely if a cat 4 could make it why couldn't a cat 5?


Just by the fact that the No. of storms with Categories, CAT1>CAT2>CAT3>CAT4>CAT5

There are just more CAT-4s and CAT-5sm just as there are way more CAT-1s than CAT-3s and so on.....
TD12 might not be fish going by the ECMWF

240hrs....


yet the GFS 192hrs says otherwise.



NOGAPS
144hrs...



CMC 144hrs...

1135. milo617
Safe to say that Isaac has lived up to its "I" lineage.
Just a reminder... the models was showing Isaac to recurve out to sea when it was an invest. Then East Coast. Then Florida. And finally, Louisiana.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
..boldly go.. where no man has gone before..

Why do I get the feeling that Kirk is a lot stronger than we believe it is?
Interesting tidbit.

On 10 October 1804, a "snow hurricane" struck Massachusetts. The storm began with winds so powerful that whole forests were leveled. Houses, barns, chimneys, and church steeples came crashing down. Even when the wind subsided, it continued to snow. As much as two feet fell in some places. Fruit was blown off trees and potatoes froze in the ground. Hundreds of cattle, sheep, and poultry died. Ships at anchor collided with each other and nearby wharves, killing the men on board. So many oaks and pines were lost that it was decades before the state's shipbuilding industry recovered. In some parts of Massachusetts, the storm changed the landscape so dramatically that people felt as though they were suddenly living in a new and unfamiliar place.
Quoting Chiggy:


Just by the fact that the No. of storms with Categories, CAT1>CAT2>CAT3>CAT4>CAT5

There are just more CAT-4s and CAT-5sm just as there are way more CAT-1s than CAT-3s and so on.....

True that, But NOAA theoretically ran the SLOSH model for New Bedford, Massachusetts for only up to Cat 4. Why not up to Cat 5??
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Why do you always tell us this after the fact?
If you are so knowledgable, why not tell us before so we will know and prepare?
Oh.....because its all....a lie..sorry to say

You could have interpreted that poem to mean anything when a disaster happens, it proves NOTHING.
You have to first ask the question, what do butterflies have to do with hurricane forcasting? It is a strange thing to say, after all.

To say that butterflies see the unfolding of every birth is impossible, so they must symbolize something else, that can.

Proof is a hundred year old woman laughing at those butterflies.

What you should be asking now, is what comes, when the butterflies leave.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do I get the feeling that Kirk is a lot stronger than we believe it is?
'Eye' have no idea.

Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm just doing a little reading on storm surge records around the USA and came across this....

Highest Theoretical U.S. Storm Surge

The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets.


What sort of storm surge would there be if a Cat 5 Hurricane hit New Bedford. Why did NOAA only do up to Cat 4 and not Cat 5? Wouldn't a Cat 5 Hurricane have higher storm surge than a Cat 4?


Probably because you would never have a Cat 5 in Massachussets. I mean....strange things happen, but not that strange. Why not do slosh for a Cat 5 in Maine? Or Oregon?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just a reminder... the models was showing Isaac to recurve out to sea when it was an invest. Then East Coast. Then Florida. And finally, Louisiana.

True, I still think TD12 should make the turn but anything is possible.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do I get the feeling that Kirk is a lot stronger than we believe it is?

That makes at least two people with that feeling then, looks like a hurricane.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just a reminder... the models was showing Isaac to recurve out to sea when it was an invest. Then East Coast. Then Florida. And finally, Louisiana.


They did not properly anticipate how much Issac would struggle and remain weak all the way through the Caribbean.........Don't think the models anticipated that Issac would be cruising along at 20 mph which prevented true vertical stacking until much later in the forecast period.
The Bermuda high has shifted pretty far east and the same weakness that Kirk will turn into should be in place for TD12 by the time it gets to the islands. The only hitch might be if TD12 becomes Leslie and gets strong enough to pump up the ridge to the north of her. That forecasted turn is fairly close to the islands now, so lets hope it doesn't move too much further west.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Interesting tidbit.

On 10 October 1804, a "snow hurricane" struck Massachusetts. The storm began with winds so powerful that whole forests were leveled. Houses, barns, chimneys, and church steeples came crashing down. Even when the wind subsided, it continued to snow. As much as two feet fell in some places. Fruit was blown off trees and potatoes froze in the ground. Hundreds of cattle, sheep, and poultry died. Ships at anchor collided with each other and nearby wharves, killing the men on board. So many oaks and pines were lost that it was decades before the state's shipbuilding industry recovered. In some parts of Massachusetts, the storm changed the landscape so dramatically that people felt as though they were suddenly living in a new and unfamiliar place.

sounds like a bad Noreaster
1147. WxLogic
I wish they would they the opportunity and send one of those drones to Kirk. Excellent test case.
1148. Max1023
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if as you say a Cat 5 couldn't make it... How could a cat 4 make it. Surely if a cat 4 could make it why couldn't a cat 5?


The NHC doesn't doomcast.
Quoting largeeyes:


Probably because you would never have a Cat 5 in Massachussets. I mean....strange things happen, but not that strange. Why not do slosh for a Cat 5 in Maine? Or Oregon?

What's the chance of a Cat 4 Hurricane in Massachusetts. 1% higher than a Cat 5?
1150. HrDelta
Quoting CybrTeddy:
..boldly go.. where no man has gone before..


I'm thinking a Hurricane at 11.
...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.1N 43.4W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.
Good Morning from Central LA...Isaac was not all that bad here...barely any rain and some wind...we kept our power as well....My prayers go out to all that is seriously effected by Isaac.....
Let's see if the first forecast cone for TD 12 matches the first one issued for TD 9 (Isaac).

1154. Chiggy
So this is exactly what I mean by models initializing incorrectly with TD12: 00Z UKMET for example: Has this at 45W - 15N in 24hrs time (which is 8pm EDT today) - TD12 currently is already at 44W close to 14N

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Are they tired of these? :P
000
WTNT32 KNHC 301432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 43.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


They did not properly anticipate how much Issac would struggle and remain weak all the way through the Caribbean.........Don't think the models anticipated that Issac would be cruising along at 20 mph which prevented true vertical stacking until much later in the forecast period.
Very true. Isaac struggled all the way to final landfall.
Quoting jeffs713:

There is still a lot of moisture with Isaac. He still has a large circulation, and that is going to pull a heck of a lot of moisture up with him. The ridge is going to tear up his western side, tho. (in other words, he won't "poof" like Don did last year)


Thanks Jeff. That was the exact thought going through my mind was Don from last year when it tried to penetrate the Texas drought, but I guess the ridge was in place then? Or did don travel around the ridge there too? Bottom line is I cant have 6+ inches of rain here, drought or no drought. There would be devastating flooding in my area, especially because they have just added a bunch of housing, added 4 feet of earth over a large 2 block area to put the housing on. That area used to be 4-5 feet deep when our creek came out. I dread what will happen if it were to do the same now.
TD12 on NHC site, forecast is to become a hurricane with 80kt winds north of the islands.
000
WTNT22 KNHC 301432
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 43.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 43.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
Good Morning If anybody in Louisiana is concerned about road closures, try this site...it's only Louisiana but may link to other states.

http://www.511la.org
Quoting Carnoustie:

sounds like a bad Noreaster


Yes, but it's listed in history as a hurricane and not a noreaster. Could be there was historical documentation of one down here that went north?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Are they tired of these? :P

Lol, who knows but I'm not unless it goes into the Caribbean.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You have to first ask the question, what do butterflies have to do with hurricane forcasting? It is a strange thing to say, after all.

To say that butterflies see the unfolding of every birth is impossible, so they must symbolize something else, that can.

Proof is a hundred year old woman laughing at those butterflies.

What you should be asking now, is what comes, when the butterflies leave.



a 100 yr old woman?
some proof.
and what DOES happen when the butterflies leave?
we get less nervous?
Quoting Max1023:


The NHC doesn't doomcast.

If they don't why did they run the SLOSH model for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets then???
1166. HrDelta
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's the chance of a Cat 4 Hurricane in Massachusetts. 1% higher than a Cat 5?


The Great Colonial Hurricane in 1635 may have been a Category 4. IN any case, size of the storm matters alot for storm surge.
Does anyone have the model images showing Isaac when it was TD recurving out to sea like they are showing for our new TD? I don't remember the models showing that much of a turn.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 301435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES.
AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.1N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Are they tired of these? :P

Imagine how they felt in 2005.
Let's see what we got with Kirk...

Obviously this is going to change.
Quoting Joanie38:
Good Morning from Central LA...Isaac was not all that bad here...barely any rain and some wind...we kept our power as well....My prayers go out to all that is seriously effected by Isaac.....


Morning, Joanie. From the radar it looks like Alex is in that clear area in the middle. We all were very lucky with Isaac.
...ISAAC SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...SEVERE WEATHER...AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 31.7N 92.1W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
That's a pretty low pressure for a 40mph TS.
Advisory in for Isaac, 40mph with 987mb pressure.

Waiting on Kirk then I'm gone.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...SUSTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AND FAIRLY STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LIES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING
WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT LIES EAST OF THE FRENCH
ISLANDS...ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. FARTHER EAST...THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN AREA OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN 50W-40W. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW BRIEFLY SETTLES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLES EARLY THIS CYCLE. IT THEN RAPIDLY PULLS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DIGGING POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST
AND THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS TO
GRADUALLY CRUMBLE THROUGH 30-36 HRS AS POLAR TROUGH PATTERN
ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE
COLLAPSES...MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.

AT LOW LEVELS...PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES CROSSES THE
ISLAND CHAIN EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND THROUGH MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY IT IS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A MOIST TONGUE THAT ASSOCIATES WITH THIS FEATURE.
IMPACT IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CRUMBLES. BUT...THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING
MAXIMA IN THIS AREA PEAKING AT LESS THAN AN INCH.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
1176. Chiggy
HAHA read the NHC discussion on TD12 - lots of "probably", "should", "ridge builds back", "THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE" etc etc...

same record playing over and over again this year....
Quoting AussieStorm:

If they don't why did they run the SLOSH model for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets then???


thats not doomcasting, thats just seeing what will happen if we get a hurricane there..
000
WTNT21 KNHC 301442
TCMAT1

HURRICANE KIRK
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Kirk! Im not surprised at all.
mini.system.moving.into.windwards
1181. WxLogic
There we go... Hurricane Kirk... nice.
11-5-0 for this year... Kirk is now a hurricane.
Saw this ridge before to the west of the weakness, i still dont think it will bridge the gap, but depends on how far south it is, a jog south or a weaker storm could stay south of the weakness, at this time i give it a 10% chance, so 9 out of 10 of these will end up far from the US
Quoting AussieStorm:
How does this compare to what we saw?


too low for LA too high for
MS
1185. HrDelta
Kirk has made Hurricane.

Looks like this season's rule of two is continuing with Kirk and soon-to-be Leslie.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If they don't why did they run the SLOSH model for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford, Massachussets then???


Aussie, the water and temps are too cold to sustain a hurricane long. It's rare for even a Cat three to make it. Can a 4 get there? Yes, but only a couple in hundreds of years that they know of. So to extrapulate for a 5 is not really reasonable?
Hurricane KIRK
11-5-0. Predicted peak at 90mph.


Back at 4pm.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


a 100 yr old woman?
some proof.
and what DOES happen when the butterflies leave?
we get less nervous?
Here's the second hurricane forecast poem, published on April 20, 2012.

See if there are any clues, besides the next to the last line ...

"As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.


If Leslie is named today (August 30, 2012), 2012 will surpass Lee in 2005 (August 31, 2005)
Every city in USA should be prepared for Category 5... period. You never know when it'll happen, but it's the best to prepare for it.
1191. HrDelta
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


thats not doomcasting, thats just seeing what will happen if we get a hurricane there..


It has happened before. It would be irresponsible not to take that into account.
Looking at all of the model guidance, the forecast track for TD 12 makes sense. The NHC did leave themselves an out just in case it doesn't get pulled all the way out to sea. That is what happened to Andrew.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


thats not doomcasting, thats just seeing what will happen if we get a hurricane there..

so why not see what a Cat 5 would be if ever one got that far. I'm sure GW/CC people could theorize a Cat 5 could make it anywhere in the ATL in a few 100 years.
I picture Dr. Masters typing furiously right this second. And by the time I hit the Post Comment button there'll be a a new blog. :)
1195. HrDelta
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricane KIRK
11-5-0. Predicted peak at 90mph.


Back at 4pm.


It looks so well organized, I wonder if it will overshoot that.

Unfortunately, they haven't released the Wind Probability yet.
I could see Kirk getting a little stronger than forecasted but so far everything else looks good.
1197. Chiggy
KIRK: ...., just goes to show that you don't need a SSTs of 30+ degs to form a hurricane - better thermodynamics in the convective environment is more important..

1198. Dakster
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Recurver


I agree - should (hopefully) be a fish storm, although Bermuda has to watch out for it.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Here's the second hurricane forecast poem, published on April 20, 2012.

See if there are any clues, besides the next to the last line ...

"As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.




yes the red sticks are the california redwoods and moving along on a terrible journey means that the winds will blow into there and howl, and then the lord will subdue the air and make a transition from the winds to the calm at the california nevada border, the winds will stop rotating, for they are bound to be topped by the lords power, and will flee away, towering and stammering over the unlocked horizon...

See i can come up with any nonsense i feel like...and for the next disaster i can fit this to it too....
Its all cryptic lies
you probably just wrote it anyway
Just as I was finishing a blog the advisories come out, hate going back and making changes.
1202. FOREX
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Looking at all of the model guidance, the forecast track for TD 12 makes sense. The NHC did leave themselves an out just in case it doesn't get pulled all the way out to sea. That is what happened to Andrew.


What was the "OUT?"
Must be busy down at the NHC, they have

TS Isaac
Hurricane Kirk
TD 12
Hurricane Ilena in the EPac.
1109 TampaCat5 Climatologically speaking there is a near zero chance of a category 5 hurricane making it that far north.

Climatologically, kinda like there's a "zero chance of the Arctic becoming sea-ice free."
1205. 7544
looks like td 12 still wants to head west could she pull a issac where he was suppose to be a fish and look where he ended up ,any thing else after td 12 be fore augest ends ahead
Has Isaac hit Texas yet?
With Kirk now a hurricane, 2012 is a day ahead of 2005 for the number of named storms, and tied with that year for the number of hurricanes. However, that's about where the comparison ends. Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:

2012
Chris: Cat 1 / ACE 2.7675
Ernesto: Cat 1 / ACE 7.6625
Gordon: Cat 2 / ACE 8.19
Isaac: Cat 1 / ACE 9.4425
Kirk: Cat 1 / ACE 1.6575 (and counting)
Total ACE from hurricanes: 29.72

2005
Cindy: Cat 1 / ACE 1.52
Dennis: Cat 4 / ACE 18.8
Emily: Cat 5 / ACE 32.9
Irene: Cat 2 / ACE 13.1
Katrina: Cat 5 / ACE 20.0
Total ACE from hurricanes: 86.32

And that's not even looking at deaths or damage, both of which were, of course, vastly higher in 2005, both by a factor of nearly 100-to-1.
Kirk is a cute lil booger...
Quoting 7544:
looks like td 12 still wants to head west could she pull a issac where he was suppose to be a fish and look where he ended up ,any thing else after td 12 be fore augest ends ahead


NHC says it should have already turned to WNW too by now. So it won't take long before it is within the south side of guidance.
Wow, Kirk is a tiny storm, I wonder how it compares with Cyclone Tracy and Tropical Storm Marco?
At least $4 billion in damage (insured costs are normally doubled) from Isaac in Louisiana (and still counting), plus the Florida total is not complete yet. So I think retirement is likely.
Quoting FOREX:


What was the "OUT?"


MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.


Beautiful.
Quoting 12george1:
At least $4 billion in damage (insured costs are normally doubled) from Isaac in Louisiana (and still counting), plus the Florida total is not complete yet. So I think retirement is likely.


Like I have been saying, this entire event is going to approach the damage from Irene. Feel awful for that whole region again.
1215. FOREX
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Has Isaac hit Texas yet?
He's in the Caymans right now, but should begin that NW movement shortly.
1216. FOREX
Quoting atmosweather:


MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.


lol.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Every city in USA should be prepared for Category 5... period. You never know when it'll happen, but it's the best to prepare for it.



I'm quite sure Wichita, Kansas has completed all preparations.
1218. Jstn568
Quoting Neapolitan:
With Kirk now a hurricane, that 2012 is a day ahead of 2005 for the number of named storms, and tied with that year for the number of hurricanes. However, that's about where the comparison ends. Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:

2012
Chris: Cat 1 / ACE 2.7675
Ernesto: Cat 1 / ACE 7.6625
Gordon: Cat 2 / ACE 8.19
Isaac: Cat 1 / ACE 9.4425
Kirk: Cat 1 / ACE 1.6575 (and counting)
Total ACE from hurricanes: 29.72

2005
Cindy: Cat 1 / ACE 1.52
Dennis: Cat 4 / ACE 18.8
Emily: Cat 5 / ACE 32.9
Irene: Cat 2 / ACE 13.1
Katrina: Cat 5 / ACE 20.0
Total ACE from hurricanes: 86.32

And that's not even looking at deaths or damage, both of which were, of course, vastly higher in 2005, both by a factor of nearly 100-to-1.
Ugh, acronyms. Sorry, but what is ACE?
1219. MTWX
Quoting Jstn568:
Ugh, acronyms. Sorry, but what is ACE?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy
1220. ncstorm
"Kirk"..what an odd name for a hurricane..sound like someone had some disco nostalgia when picking names..

Isaac may have other plans and head back to the GOM....

hogwash..gordon.was.nothing.compared.to.isacc
Wow, this is one of the most beautiful, well formed tropical depressions I have ever seen, it almost looks like there is a ghost of an eye in it. I want to know, what are all your thoughts on TD12's potential of recurving or staying south?
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, Kirk is a tiny storm, I wonder how it compares with Cyclone Tracy and Tropical Storm Marco?
Kirk's TS force winds extend 70 miles from the center. Marco's winds extended about 12 miles from the center, and Tracy's extended approximately 30 miles from the center.
1225. msphar
I see TD12 going fast to the West.

NHC says this:

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.

If a ridge rebuilds the models will have to be adjusted for a new reality.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning, Joanie. From the radar it looks like Alex is in that clear area in the middle. We all were very lucky with Isaac.


Good Morning aislinnpaps..:) I noticed that this morning...how are things your way???
G'morning, geeks! ;)

Just one hurricane at a time, puulllleaze! ;P
Quoting houstonstormguy:



I'm quite sure Wichita, Kansas has completed all preparations.

or denver CO
Quoting Thing342:
Kirk's TS force winds extend 70 miles from the center. Marco's winds extended about 12 miles from the center, and Tracy's extended approximately 30 miles from the center.

Thanks, that is still pretty dang small. Kirk would look like a shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico compared to Isaac.
TD 12 Looks great. Vorticity at all levels lined up. Convergence good. Divergence good. Shear low.

Dry air not so good.

Most systems go.
1232. FOREX
Quoting msphar:
I see TD12 going fast to the West.

NHC says this:

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.

If a ridg rebuilds the models will havae to be adjusted for a new reality.


When I look at latest visible satellite it looks like it has no intention of making a turn anytime soon. Problem is, I don't have the map that others on here see that shows it will make the turn. Can someone link me to that? It would be a lot more helpful to see these steering currents.
Too late, now deleted


Hmmmmm.......
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, this is one of the most beautiful, well formed tropical depressions I have ever seen, it almost looks like there is a ghost of an eye in it. I want to know, what are all your thoughts on TD12's potential of recurving or staying south?




It's all about timing...continue racing W-ward quickly and it could miss the developing weakness in the central Atl ridge and enter the SW Atlantic or Caribbean.
Dam at Percy Quinn State Park failing....warning people to get out now from kentwood to amite
1237. FOREX
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, this is one of the most beautiful, well formed tropical depressions I have ever seen, it almost looks like there is a ghost of an eye in it. I want to know, what are all your thoughts on TD12's potential of recurving or staying south?


Apparently the NHC is pretty sure but not completely sure, but kinda sure, but somewhat sure it will recurve.


Kirk. Pinhole?
Quoting Joanie38:


Good Morning aislinnpaps..:) I noticed that this morning...how are things your way???


Our winds are at 13 to 16 mph with gusts to 40 and raining most of the time, but light rain. The gusts are only supposed to get to 35 this afternoon. Some without electric around me, but all good here.
Quoting msphar:
I see TD12 going fast to the West.

NHC says this:

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.

If a ridg rebuilds the models will have to be adjusted for a new reality.


Well with how crappy the models did with Isaac I wouldnt count this one out. The NHC would have better luck flipping a coin! LOL.
Quoting atmosweather:




It's all about timing...continue racing W-ward quickly and it could miss the developing weakness in the central Atl ridge and enter the SW Atlantic or Caribbean.


I'd love to see Levi's opinion on this.
1242. Grothar
Quoting jeffs713:

Until now.

Here is your cookie, Gro.



What a nice guy!! LOL
000
WTNT42 KNHC 301435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES. AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.1N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting WxNerdVA:


Beautiful.

Aww he's so cute.
Lake Tangipahoa Dam is about to fail. Everyone along the Tangipahoa River south of the dam is urged to evacuate. There is only a 90 minute window here.
Steering td 12



1247. FOREX
Quoting gustaveye:
Damn at Percy Quinn Stae Park failing....warning people to get out now from kentwood to amite


is that in Louisiana?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Our winds are at 13 to 16 mph with gusts to 40 and raining most of the time, but light rain. The gusts are only supposed to get to 35 this afternoon. Some without electric around me, but all good here.


Good...it's about 15-20mph here but nothing major and very light blowing rain...
Quoting Neapolitan:
With Kirk now a hurricane, that 2012 is a day ahead of 2005 for the number of named storms, and tied with that year for the number of hurricanes. However, that's about where the comparison ends. Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:

2012
Chris: Cat 1 / ACE 2.7675
Ernesto: Cat 1 / ACE 7.6625
Gordon: Cat 2 / ACE 8.19
Isaac: Cat 1 / ACE 9.4425
Kirk: Cat 1 / ACE 1.6575 (and counting)
Total ACE from hurricanes: 29.72

2005
Cindy: Cat 1 / ACE 1.52
Dennis: Cat 4 / ACE 18.8
Emily: Cat 5 / ACE 32.9
Irene: Cat 2 / ACE 13.1
Katrina: Cat 5 / ACE 20.0
Total ACE from hurricanes: 86.32

And that's not even looking at deaths or damage, both of which were, of course, vastly higher in 2005, both by a factor of nearly 100-to-1.
Would Rita be included 2005?
1250. FOREX
Quoting farupnorth:
Steering





So, how do I interpret this map? Would love to learn so I can better track future systems.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Expecting that the intensity forecast and track forecast will be going north of the islands as a hurricane. Good chance this will be our first long tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Not too often you get a Cape Verde major hurricane with an "L" name, TD12 should be an interesting one to track.


Are you saying Isaac isn't a long track CV system??
Quoting FOREX:


is that in Louisiana?


MS just north of LA. The river goes through LA. Effecting 50-60,000 people...
Quoting FOREX:


is that in Louisiana?


Dam is in Mississippi just north of the LA/MS border. This is a big deal.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Has Isaac hit Texas yet?


In the process. No rain, but temperatures in Austin to be above the century mark. Heating due to upper level subsidence caused by Isaac.
Quoting bearinLA:
Would Rita be included 2005?

Neo is pointing out up until August 29. Rita was September system.
Quoting bearinLA:
Would Rita be included 2005?
To-date--that is, through August 30.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


a 100 yr old woman?
some proof.
and what DOES happen when the butterflies leave?
we get less nervous?
That Isaac formed and traveled where he did and made landfall where and on the human date he did was not by chance, was not an interesting coincidence. There are no coincidences.

Doesn't matter when Oracle de wrote these poems. Only that s/he did.

Butterflies take many forms. "Science" does not have all the answers. I doubt it ever will. Other forms of knowledge also reveal life and nature, when one has the ability to see.

PS. Red stick is Baton Rouge.
Quoting WxNerdVA:


Kirk. Pinhole?


Kirk looks awesome this morning and has taken advantage of the continued favorable conditions in the subtropics. The environment in the central Atlantic is going to stay great for him until the weekend when low SST's come into play.


Also, 12z SHIPS brings TD 12 to hurricane strength in 48 hours. Wonder if that is too bullish again.
I hope you guys realize that TD Twelve recurving is far from a guarantee. It could miss the trough if it stays too far south, and become a serious threat to the East Coast in a little over a week. Still a lot to work out..
http://grooveshark.com/s/Leaving+Louisiana/4jBTNA?s rc=5
Dam in Pike County in southern MS expected to fail

PIKE COUNTY, MS (WAFB) -
The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi because officials believe a dam will fail.

NWS said local emergency management and law enforcement officials reported the Lake Tangipahoa Dam is expected to fail.

Forecasters expect severe flooding downstream along the Tangipahoa River from west of the McComb Airport and Magnolia to Osyka.

The water level is expected to rise nearly eight feet below the dam to six feet at Osyka. The river stage at Osyka is currently 14.8 feet.

The weather service said this is a flash flood emergency for all low-lying areas along the Tangipahoa River, including Osyka.

Tangipahoa Parish officials said they were notified of an "imminent failure" of the dam. They said this failure is expected to cause additional flooding along the already swollen Tangipahoa River.

Live coverage.... Link
Quoting FOREX:


Apparently the NHC is pretty sure but not completely sure, but kinda sure, but somewhat sure it will recurve.
National Seesaw Hurricane Center.
1264. msphar
waiting for td12 = waiting for godot
what river is the dam on ?
1266. MTWX
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.

1267. RayT
Quoting Neapolitan:
With Kirk now a hurricane, 2012 is a day ahead of 2005 for the number of named storms, and tied with that year for the number of hurricanes. However, that's about where the comparison ends. Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:

2012
Chris: Cat 1 / ACE 2.7675
Ernesto: Cat 1 / ACE 7.6625
Gordon: Cat 2 / ACE 8.19
Isaac: Cat 1 / ACE 9.4425
Kirk: Cat 1 / ACE 1.6575 (and counting)
Total ACE from hurricanes: 29.72

2005
Cindy: Cat 1 / ACE 1.52
Dennis: Cat 4 / ACE 18.8
Emily: Cat 5 / ACE 32.9
Irene: Cat 2 / ACE 13.1
Katrina: Cat 5 / ACE 20.0
Total ACE from hurricanes: 86.32

And that's not even looking at deaths or damage, both of which were, of course, vastly higher in 2005, both by a factor of nearly 100-to-1.


Yeah, quite a blessing.

The tropical stoms have been just enough to break the drought in Florida. a number of hurricanes, but no major hurricanes. And just enough to keep everyone entertained.

it's been great so far. No Katrina's Hugo's or other storms that cause extensive damage.
1268. sar2401
Quoting 12george1:
At least $4 billion in damage (insured costs are normally doubled) from Isaac in Louisiana (and still counting), plus the Florida total is not complete yet. So I think retirement is likely.


The article says $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. You're saying you arbitrarily double these losses to cover what's not insured? The article makes no such suggestion.
Quoting farupnorth:
Steering td 12



Looks like it would go west. Apparently this doesn't take in account the troughiness expected.
1270. FOREX
Quoting farupnorth:
Steering td 12





When I look at this map, where does it show the biggest weakness is in regards to latitude and longitude?
Quoting wxchaser97:
My blog on Isaac, Kirk, and TD12
My forecast:
YOUR forecast is gonna fail.
Folks, mandatory evac _quickly_ -- get out in 90 minutes -- just ordered for anybody along the river in Tangipahoa Parish. 90 mins.

They think that dam is gonna give.

Anybody with any social media or means to spread the word to folks in that area, make sure they know -- 90 min ain't long.

Quoting groundedpilot:
what river is the dam on ?


Tangipahoa River
Quoting gustaveye:
Damn at Percy Quinn Stae Park failing....warning people to get out now from kentwood to amite


700 acre lake.
Quoting Neapolitan:
To-date--that is, through August 30.
Didn't know it was year to date. Thank you.You said that didn't read closely.
NWS in Tulsa, where I live (sorta) thinks we might have a shot at some Isaac weather. It was never supposed to even think about coming this far west.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311 000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC WILL TRACK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ROTATE WESTWARD
AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. CURRENTLY THE RISK
OF FLOODING RAINS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM...AND THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF ISAAC TRACKS FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. WHILE BANDS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE CENTER OF THE STORM...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
STORM SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. A LOW SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AFTER ISAAC DEPARTS...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$


1277. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.



Osyka is ~20 miles downstream from the dam.
1278. FOREX
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Folks, mandatory evac _quickly_ -- get out in 90 minutes -- just ordered for anybody along the river in Tangipahoa Parish. 90 mins.

They think that dam is gonna give.

Anybody with any social media or means to spread the word to folks in that area, make sure they know -- 90 min ain't long.



None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.
Tangipahoa Parish authorities are concerned about the potential failure of a dam in Mississippi that could cause flooding along the Tangipahoa River in Louisiana.

If the dam at Percy Quin State Park in Mississippi fails, it could cause severe flooding along the Tangipahoa River, which is east of Interstate 55, said Jeff McKneely, spokesman for Tangipahoa Parish.

He said all cities bordering the river, beginning with Osyka, Miss., Kentwood, Fluker, Roseland could be affected.

The last time the dam broke in the 1980s, it caused the washing away of the La 16 bridge in Tangipahoa Parish, McKneely said.
Source
1280. 7544
so 50 /50 chance that td 12 will recurve sounds about right ?
Quoting sar2401:


The article says $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. You're saying you arbitrarily double these losses to cover what's not insured? The article makes no such suggestion.


I don't think those estimates are accounting for the full scale of this yet. I think the damage is going to still be filtering into awareness for days, and it's going to be very bad in a lot of places.

I would be very surprised at _not_ hitting a much higher number. Ultimately, it'll all get figured out -- there are still very much people with lives at risk, and there's still damage going on, so trying to guess too much what the final damage will be is wonky until the damage is done occurring.
Quoting atmosweather:


Kirk looks awesome this morning and has taken advantage of the continued favorable conditions in the subtropics. The environment in the central Atlantic is going to stay great for him until the weekend when low SST's come into play.


Also, 12z SHIPS brings TD 12 to hurricane strength in 48 hours. Wonder if that is too bullish again.

Nah..the NHC forecast shows hurricane status around that time as well.
1283. sar2401
Quoting groundedpilot:
what river is the dam on ?


TANGIPAHOA RIVER
Quoting FOREX:


None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.



Just thinking the same thing!...Why is this news not getting out?..people should be warned No?
Quoting RayT:


Yeah, quite a blessing.

The tropical stoms have been just enough to break the drought in Florida. a number of hurricanes, but no major hurricanes. And just enough to keep everyone entertained.

it's been great so far. No Katrina's Hugo's or other storms that cause extensive damage.

Umm... Isaac?
Quoting FOREX:


None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.


Literally just happened -- I just happened to be listening to WDSU live when it came in a minute ago. Takes a while to filter to the national media.
Quoting FOREX:


When I look at this map, where does it show the biggest weakness is in regards to latitude and longitude?


Kirk is going up to the left of the high where the weakness is. The weakness extends way west.

Trough is forecast to dig deep and pull td 12 towards it.

Right now td 12 seems stuck in a westerly flow.
Cost going up with the Dam failure.
Quoting sar2401:


The article says $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. You're saying you arbitrarily double these losses to cover what's not insured? The article makes no such suggestion.



Even tho Isaac is well inland he is still pulling moisture from the GOM! Amazing.. Hence why we are still under a flood watch.
Quoting FOREX:


None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.


WWL is talking about it right now. What a horrific situation shaping up there. For those with DirecTV, channel 349 is a Hurricane Isaac Info Channel and they have been running live feeds commercial free of several NOLA news stations. They jump around from station to station, pretty incredible coverage. FAR BETTER than TWC or any cable news...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah..the NHC forecast shows hurricane status around that time as well.


I think that's based on too much of a WNW track...if he accelerates with the trade winds to the West he's unlikely to be a hurricane east of the islands.
1292. FOREX
Quoting FOREX:


None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.


GOt WWL streaming live on my laptop.
CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk
Mississippi levee failing; evacuation of 50,000 to 60,000 people ordered. http://on.cnn.com/N1nm3X #Isaac
1294. MTWX
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Literally just happened -- I just happened to be listening to WDSU live when it came in a minute ago. Takes a while to filter to the national media.


Didn't just happen. The warning went up 2 hrs ago!
Quoting prcane4you:
YOUR forecast is gonna fail.


This doesn't look too bad

http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm


Quoting FOREX:


None of the Majors like CNN or FNC are talking about it. Typical.


This was posted 10 minutes ago...

"The damn has broken, government issuing mandatory emergency evacuation of 50-60 THOUSAND people. They are expecting water to begin reaching Kentwood area in less than 90 minutes. Evacuation includes areas along Tangipahoa River from Kentwood to Robert.

Government officials are scrambling busses, planes and military vehicles to help get people out of the area."

Per WWLTV, WWL 870am, WVUE and I'm sure many other sources.
1297. Grothar
I don't recall ever seeing SST near 80 right into Long Island. If a storm were to move in that direction, and moving quickly it could maintain its strength for a long time.

1298. FOREX
Quoting hurricanejunky:


WWL is talking about it right now. What a horrific situation shaping up there. For those with DirecTV, channel 349 is a Hurricane Isaac Info Channel and they have been running live feeds commercial free of several NOLA news stations. They jump around from station to station, pretty incredible coverage. FAR BETTER than TWC or any cable news...


listening to wwl thanks.
Quoting MTWX:


Didn't just happen. The warning went up 2 hrs ago!


Mandatory evac just happened. It is failing, just came over. No longer imminent, it _is failing_.
1300. yoboi
Quoting alaina1085:


Even tho Isaac is well inland he is still pulling moisture from the GOM! Amazing.. Hence why we are still under a flood watch.



look at the bright side tigers play sat night....
Quoting Chapelhill:


This was posted 10 minutes ago...

"The damn has broken, government issuing mandatory emergency evacuation of 50-60 THOUSAND people. They are expecting water to begin reaching Kentwood area in less than 90 minutes. Evacuation includes areas along Tangipahoa River from Kentwood to Robert.

Government officials are scrambling busses, planes and military vehicles to help get people out of the area."

Per WWLTV, WWL 870am, WVUE and I'm sure many other sources.


OH NO!...Please let these people be ok!
They're predicting an 8' wall (rise)? of water? They need stronger wording than flash flood. They need a high ground warning, a GTFO warning.
Quoting MTWX:


Didn't just happen. The warning went up 2 hrs ago!

The Parish president just call about 5 mins ago to WWL4 asking them to get the word out to get out now.
1304. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Mandatory evac just happened. It is failing, just came over. No longer imminent, it _is failing_.


where is it failing???
Quoting waterskiman:

The Parish president just call about 5 mins ago to WWL4 asking them to get the word out to get out now.


How do you evac that many people in 90 min?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope you guys realize that TD Twelve recurving is far from a guarantee. It could miss the trough if it stays too far south, and become a serious threat to the East Coast in a little over a week. Still a lot to work out..

I've been focused on it ever since the GFS started picking up on it a few days out, before it even came off of Africa. This'll be interesting to watch.
1307. MTWX
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Mandatory evac just happened. It is failing, just came over. No longer imminent, it _is failing_.


Sad that it took officials 2 hours to react!
NWS has stated that the dam hasn't broken yet, but it is in imminent danger of failing. Parish president is stating that there is roughly a 90 minute window to evacuate.
Please forgive if posted already: on iPhone. Percry Quinn State Park Dam in MS now failing. Area residents must immediately evacuate. Tangipahoa Lake will drain and rise the river downstream by 4 ft. Just south of McComb MS. 1600 acre lake. Now have approx 1 hour to leave! .....
Looks like I have to eat crow on my forecast.
The one I made a while ago about the timing of a new blog. ;)
Quoting midgulfmom:
Please forgive if posted already: on iPhone. Percry Quinn State Park Dam in MS now failing. Area residents must immediately evacuate. Tangipahoa Lake will drain and rise the river downstream by 4 ft. Just south of McComb MS. 1600 acre lake. Now have approx 1 hour to leave! .....


Are there official numbers on how many people they need out?
Quoting yoboi:



look at the bright side tigers play sat night....


Very true!!! We are all excited here and ready to see our Tigers play!
I think Kirk could become our first category three hurricane this season, overall size is small and I don't expect his best period of intensification to occur until 12-24 hours before the shear hits. That 12-24 hour window before the southwesterly shear hits him will allow ventillation to occur as a poleward outflow channel develops as well as possibly a southern one and outflow becomes symetrical.
One of the 06z GFS ENSEMBLE lol
Dam post removed.
Quoting Vindibunny:
NWS has stated that the dam hasn't broken yet, but it is in imminent danger of failing. Parish president is stating that there is roughly a 90 minute window to evacuate.

Word is that the dam has failed.
Link
1317. TheDewd
Quoting RayT:


Yeah, quite a blessing.

The tropical stoms have been just enough to break the drought in Florida. a number of hurricanes, but no major hurricanes. And just enough to keep everyone entertained.

it's been great so far. No Katrina's Hugo's or other storms that cause extensive damage.


On what planet do you live? Have you SEEN the damage? I, for one, am not "entertained" by carnage. Please be just a bit more respectful of those in Isaac's wake who have lost property and, in some cases, loved ones and pets.

I can appciate a storm like Kirk much more because he's so well organized. That's appreciation, not entertainment.

As for the distinction between "major" hurricanes...a storm that drops more than 20" of water on the same area in less than 24 hours is a major event, regardless of wind speed. Flooding does more damage than wind. I'd say Isaac has caused "extensive damage".

I've lurked here for a long time. Some of the most respected and informative Wx forecasters live in the areas affected by Isaac. Please apologize to them for your callousness.
1318. sar2401
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Folks, mandatory evac _quickly_ -- get out in 90 minutes -- just ordered for anybody along the river in Tangipahoa Parish. 90 mins.

They think that dam is gonna give.

Anybody with any social media or means to spread the word to folks in that area, make sure they know -- 90 min ain't long.



"BATON ROUGE -- Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in "extreme danger" of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said."

I still haven't seen anything official about a 90 minute evacuation order. This is a state senator picking up something said by a parish president on his Facebook page? Seems like an odd way to run an emergency evacuation.
Have not seen much about West Nile Virus but with all the rain I am sure the mosquito population is about to explode.

Just another thing to worry about.
Ok let me vent here for a moment. I was watching the news and there are people in a certain parish sending in complaints and demands on how they are furious that no one is there to rescue them from the rising waters. They have rapids going down the middle of their streets. Now that area was under a mandatory evacuation mind you, and doesn't that mean to get your butt out of there???? Or else you would be stranded? I know it is hard to leave behind your possessions but wouldn't you listen to authorities? Common sense people, if you live in an area that is at or even below sea level, and they are forecasting a 12 foot surge, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that you need to get the hell out of there! Don't just think, it is just a Cat 1 hurricane, because even the weakest tropical storms can do damage. Besides after Katrina you had to know it was coming again, so why even continue to live there. God I can't believe that we have idiots out there who think they are invincible.
Quoting Vindibunny:
NWS has stated that the dam hasn't broken yet, but it is in imminent danger of failing. Parish president is stating that there is roughly a 90 minute window to evacuate.

That was also issued over two hours ago.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MSC113-301615-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0070.120830T1326Z-120830T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 9045 3100 9044 3100 9049 3107 9049
3111 9051 3113 9054 3118 9055 3118 9050
Kirk's outflow is expanding on the northern and western sides of his circulation.
1323. 2ifbyC
Local sheriff said the dam has been breached and they expect the dam to fail.

He also said that safey is within 200-300 yards up the banks.
Quoting greene47:


Are there official numbers on how many people they need out?

Around 50-60,000 people.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One of the 06z GFS ENSEMBLE lol
I know that that time is in fantasy land, but Michael, Nadine, AND Oscar?
Eye is getting covered up again, but this time by heavier and deeper convection then when his eye first showed up. Watch him explode within the next 12-24 hours, but the best show is after this first 24 hour period.
1327. MTWX
Evacuation information:

Link

Updated 10 minutes ago.
UPDATE: Dam on Tangipahoa River, MS damaged, but has not failed. Evacuation still underway. (Per NWS)
Quoting sar2401:


"BATON ROUGE -- Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in "extreme danger" of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said."

I still haven't seen anything official about a 90 minute evacuation order. This is a state senator picking up something said by a parish president on his Facebook page? Seems like an odd way to run an emergency evacuation.


Social media is where alot are getting information nowadays. They'll check their facebook more than the local news, especially if they think the danger has passed.
Quoting coondini:

Around 50-60,000 people.

Talk about a possible bottleneck...It's on TWC now
A large African wave is about to emerge off the west African coast. Last night satellite images showed a well organized low pressure system over the western portions of the African Rain Forest.
Well how interesting. Today we have three active systems: Isaac, Hurricane Kurt, and of course tropical depression 12.



Kurt is heading out to sea and Isaac is nearly a remnant low, but td12 is heading w to wsw atm. Going to be very interesting to see where it goes in the next few days as guidance is unclear as to whether it will re-curve at all or simply move west. Atm, it looks more ts like on sat:

Link


Weather Underground ‏@wunderground
UPDATE: Dam on Tangipahoa River, MS damaged, but has not failed. Evacuation still underway. (Per NWS)

as of 3 minutes ago
They're talking about the dam on TWC right now.
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
A large African wave is about to emerge off the west African coast. Last night satellite images showed a well organized low pressure system over the western portions of the African Rain Forest.


If my calculations are correct....this one is FL bound for sure.
1336. 7544
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
A large African wave is about to emerge off the west African coast. Last night satellite images showed a well organized low pressure system over the western portions of the African Rain Forest.


99l ? maybe will it go fishing too
Quoting greene47:



Just thinking the same thing!...Why is this news not getting out?..people should be warned No?


its all over their twitter
1338. sar2401
Quoting Chapelhill:


This was posted 10 minutes ago...

"The damn has broken, government issuing mandatory emergency evacuation of 50-60 THOUSAND people. They are expecting water to begin reaching Kentwood area in less than 90 minutes. Evacuation includes areas along Tangipahoa River from Kentwood to Robert.

Government officials are scrambling busses, planes and military vehicles to help get people out of the area."

Per WWLTV, WWL 870am, WVUE and I'm sure many other sources.


I can find nothing which says the dam has failed, only that it has the potential to fail. This place is starting to look like panic central.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Tangipahoa-Parish -orders-immediate-evacuation-after-potential-levee -breach-167994886.html
Quoting greene47:


How do you evac that many people in 90 min?


Very poorly. They should have started evac when the dam started looking "off," IMO. But at the moment, it doesn't matter whether they shoulda coulda woulda -- they need to get folks out closest to the dam really, really fast, and everybody downstream should be paying close attention -- they're probably going to have to evac a lot further down, too, just not as quickly. Depends on the topography some.

This is basically "grab your loved ones, pets, hopefully already-gathered very important papers, plan a meeting place with anybody else you need to, get in the car, and drive away. Figure out where you're going for the night once you're out."

I hope they can get the word out to everybody, spreading the info is probably the hugest challenge right now.
Quoting BeanTech:


If my calculations are correct....this one is FL bound for sure.




You should be more interested in depression 12 for right now, it is highly unclear where it is ultimately going to go.
1341. TheDewd
Quoting tropicfreak:
Don't just think, it is just a Cat 1 hurricane, because even the weakest tropical storms can do damage.


This is also a failure of our classification system. Wind speed is not the only metric by which these storms should be measured.

I do agree that the people who failed to heed the warming got what was coming. However, regarding relocating, it is not that simple. It costs money to move, and people have strong attachments to places, especially when it's home. Moving yourself is expensive, moving your entire family, town and way of life is cost prohibitive.mjust my 2 cents.
On the damn in Miss, It has not failed yet but it is damaged, evac is still underway.


Seems like they waited till the last minute to do an evacuation doesn't it.
Quoting TheDewd:


This is also a failure of our classification system. Wind speed is not the only metric by which these storms should be measured.

I do agree that the people who failed to heed the warming got what was coming. However, regarding relocating, it is not that simple. It costs money to move, and people have strong attachments to places, especially when it's home. Moving yourself is expensive, moving your entire family, town and way of life is cost prohibitive.mjust my 2 cents.


I can understand that, but even if you can't move, know that you are in a flood prone area and HAVE A PLAN!
Quoting MTWX:


Sad that it took officials 2 hours to react!
What the hell are you talking about. The dam hasn't gone yet there is 50/50 chance. They are getting people out now on the side of caution. Why don't you get informed before you spout off
Update is that it is "damaged" and not "breached" according to somebody on the phone with WDSU. Missed who she is.
1346. Seastep
Quoting DataNerd:




You should be more interested in depression 12 for right now, it is highly unclear where it is ultimately going to go.


It was a joke. And a very funny one at that,imo.
Ventillation is vastly improving with Hurricane Kirk
Quoting DataNerd:




You should be more interested in depression 12 for right now, it is highly unclear where it is ultimately going to go.



I think that the models are out to lunch on TD 12 / to be Leslie.

Looks to me like this is going via islands into Caribbean also.

We will see, but the loop and current track is clear West.
Edit: Damn has not broken. NWS says failure is certain, mayor of McComb says complete failure is certain but areas have already been breached.
1350. Chiggy
TD12 has moved straight WEST over the past 6 hours...
1351. CJ5
Quoting TheDewd:


This is also a failure of our classification system. Wind speed is not the only metric by which these storms should be measured.

I do agree that the people who failed to heed the warming got what was coming. However, regarding relocating, it is not that simple. It costs money to move, and people have strong attachments to places, especially when it's home. Moving yourself is expensive, moving your entire family, town and way of life is cost prohibitive.mjust my 2 cents.


Saving ones live and/or insuring safety of your family is never cost prohibitive. Never.
1352. Grothar
Live link to New Orleans on the dam.


Link
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
Ventillation is vastly improving with Hurricane Kirk


you know, i find it interesting that canes in these latitudes (gordon) develop and canes down here in the lower latitudes are having a hard time...

nature's a tough one to figure out
Quoting sar2401:


I can find nothing which says the dam has failed, only that it has the potential to fail. This place is starting to look like panic central.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Tangipahoa-Parish -orders-immediate-evacuation-after-potential-levee -breach-167994886.html


Dude, when it comes over official news sources and interviews with parish presidents, I'd say the panic is not exactly out of nowhere.

I am currently not clear on the situation -- hear from one official that it is failing, hear from another that it is not.
1355. CJ5
Quoting CJ5:


Saving ones life and/or insuring safety of your family is never cost prohibitive. Never.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Update is that it is "damaged" and not "breached" according to somebody on the phone with WDSU. Missed who she is.


The person on the phone is a spokesperson for MEMA
1357. sar2401
Quoting waterskiman:
What the hell are you talking about. The dam hasn't gone yet there is 50/50 chance. They are getting people out now on the side of caution. Why don't you get informed before you spout off


Really. Fer cryin' out loud, stop posting junk from twitter and FB. If it's not from an actual official source, you're spreading rumors. This all started from one parish president jumping the gun and calling TV stations instead of coordinating what needed to be done through the local EMA. The dam has failed before, in the 1980's, and consequences were not catastrophic.
1358. MTWX
Quoting waterskiman:
What the hell are you talking about. The dam hasn't gone yet there is 50/50 chance. They are getting people out now on the side of caution. Why don't you get informed before you spout off


Thinking they would have acted a little faster considering...

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL

Issued 2.5 hours ago...
100 foot breach in the dam.
Quoting Chiggy:
TD12 has moved straight WEST over the past 6 hours...


This is too far south and too close to the islands for this to recurve... IMO.

Fujiwara effect setting up between Kirk and TD 12?

1361. Seastep
Quoting serialteg:


you know, i find it interesting that canes in these latitudes (gordon) develop and canes down here in the lower latitudes are having a hard time...

nature's a tough one to figure out


Coriolis force
1362. sar2401
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Dude, when it comes over official news sources and interviews with parish presidents, I'd say the panic is not exactly out of nowhere.

I am currently not clear on the situation -- hear from one official that it is failing, hear from another that it is not.


Dude, this parish president is running a one man show and not following procedure. Mississippi EMA is handling this situation, not him. MEMA states there's a potential dam failure but is not calling for 90 minute evacuations. This is a great example of how one guy, combined with social media and scared people, sets off a panic with no basis in fact.
MCCOMB, Miss. (AP) %u2014 Louisiana officials have ordered evacuation of low-lying, sparsely-populated areas along the Tangipahoa River because an Isaac-hammered dam at a state park lake in southwest Mississippi near the Louisiana border is in danger of failing.
Officials in Tangipahoa Parish, La., fear the water it would pour into the already swollen river would flood low-lying areas downstream from the park.

But Mississippi officials say they don't believe the volume of water in the 700-acre lake at Percy Quin State Park near McComb, Miss., would add enough flow to threaten communities downstream.
Source

Not saying that people shouldn't get out of the way as a precautionary measure, but this isn't Boulder Dam and Lake Mead; it's a low earthen levee containing a shallow one-square-mile lake.
1365. sar2401
Quoting MTWX:


Thinking they would have acted a little faster considering...

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL

Issued 2.5 hours ago...


The point is that there's a potential for a dam failure. It's an earth filled dam (actually, a large levee) that may fail at some point in the future, but no one except this one parish president was calling for a 90 minute evacuation. Unless you see something from MEMA or the NWS, it's a rumor.
1366. drs2008
Quoting tropicfreak:


I can understand that, but even if you can't move, know that you are in a flood prone area and HAVE A PLAN!
We need a system that factors in 3 metrics. Wind speed,storm size and perhaps ACE, imo.
Dam being patched....MS official argueing with local TV station that "danger imminent" but evac is "encouraged" but not mandatory...??????? Really? What is this craziness? Reporter trying to get official to clarify what MS wants people to do. Official said "don't chance it but not mandatory" also said Dam is damaged but relieving pressure slowly by lowering water level. My translation..."Don't PANIC but panic"...still trying to clarify with official... Any engineers available? WTHeck?
Quoting sar2401:


Dude, this parish president is running a one man show and not following procedure. Mississippi EMA is handling this situation, not him. MEMA states there's a potential dam failure but is not calling for 90 minute evacuations. This is a great example of how one guy, combined with social media and scared people, sets off a panic with no basis in fact.


I am _still_ unclear on what's going on. But the parish president on actual news is a pretty official source. The MEMA spokeswoman I was just listening to was, um, confusing, frankly.

Doesn't really matter at the moment. The whole thing is clear as mud, and it sounds like the news folks on WDSU feel the same way.
1369. TheDewd
Quoting CJ5:


Saving ones live and/or insuring safety of your family is never cost prohibitive. Never.


I think we're talking about two different things. I agree that the evacuations are not cost prohibitive. However, moving to a different part of the country can be. We have assistance for emergency evacuations, we do not for people who wish to relocate.

People who choose to stay during an emergency get what they deserve. I do wish they would not put the lives of our emergency crews at risk by doing so.
Quoting sar2401:


The point is that there's a potential for a dam failure. It's an earth filled dam (actually, a large levee) that may fail at some point in the future, but no one except this one parish president was calling for a 90 minute evacuation. Unless you see something from MEMA or the NWS, it's a rumor.


It's not a rumor. It's serious business!
Will TD12 follow Kirk?
126 hrs. could become a beautiful hurricane, maybe the first major of the season:

1373. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
MCCOMB, Miss. (AP) — Louisiana officials have ordered evacuation of low-lying, sparsely-populated areas along the Tangipahoa River because an Isaac-hammered dam at a state park lake in southwest Mississippi near the Louisiana border is in danger of failing.
Officials in Tangipahoa Parish, La., fear the water it would pour into the already swollen river would flood low-lying areas downstream from the park.

But Mississippi officials say they don't believe the volume of water in the 700-acre lake at Percy Quin State Park near McComb, Miss., would add enough flow to threaten communities downstream.
Source


Thank you, Nea. I may not agree with you all the time on AGW but at least you're good at posting actual facts.
1374. MTWX
Quoting Neapolitan:
MCCOMB, Miss. (AP) — Louisiana officials have ordered evacuation of low-lying, sparsely-populated areas along the Tangipahoa River because an Isaac-hammered dam at a state park lake in southwest Mississippi near the Louisiana border is in danger of failing.
Officials in Tangipahoa Parish, La., fear the water it would pour into the already swollen river would flood low-lying areas downstream from the park.

But Mississippi officials say they don't believe the volume of water in the 700-acre lake at Percy Quin State Park near McComb, Miss., would add enough flow to threaten communities downstream.
Source


The river runs through mostly farm land, and there are not many structures at all until ~20 miles downstream when it reaches Osyka.
1375. drs2008
Quoting midgulfmom:
Dam being patched....MS official argueing with local TV station that "danger imminent" but evac is "encouraged" but not mandatory...??????? Really? What is this craziness? Reporter trying to get official to clarify what MS wants people to do. Official said "don't chance it but not mandatory" also said Dam is damaged but relieving pressure slowly by lowering water level. My translation..."Don't PANIC but panic"...still trying to clarify with official... Any engineers available? WTHeck?
Same kind of dam as Johnstown-earthen dam.
1376. sar2401
Quoting saildawg54:


It's not a rumor. It's serious business!


It is a rumor...please look at the facts and take a deep breath. There is no need for a 90 minute evacuation. This parish president needs to shut up. I worked in emergency management for 27 years and people like him, going outside the normal SOP's, used to drive us nuts.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
126 hrs. could become a beautiful hurricane, maybe the first major of the season:



Close to Bermuda.
Dam break happened before in 1983. Devastating effect in LA to those along the river. No warning then.
1379. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:


The point is that there's a potential for a dam failure. It's an earth filled dam (actually, a large levee) that may fail at some point in the future, but no one except this one parish president was calling for a 90 minute evacuation. Unless you see something from MEMA or the NWS, it's a rumor.
That excerpt is from NWS...

Here is the full warning again...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.
Name of the damn that is failing is the: Lake Tangipahoa Dam


Look it up on google if you want pictures. Not a very large damn at all.
1383. Seastep
Guys please settle down... I know this may be turning into another Katrina but please don't get up into each other's faces in frustration.
Quoting MTWX:
That excerpt is from NWS...

Here is the full warning again...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM IS EXPECTED TO FAIL.
SEVERE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER
FROM WEST OF THE MCCOMB AIRPORT AND MAGNOLIA TO OSYKA. WATER LEVEL
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8 FEET BELOW THE DAM TO 6 FEET AT
OSYKA. CURRENT RIVER STAGE READING AT OSYKA WAS 14.8 FEET.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
TANGIPAHOA RIVER INCLUDING OSYKA.

So a 6-8 ft rise basically? It all depends on the flood plain below.
1386. CJ5
Quoting sar2401:


It is a rumor...please look at the facts and take a deep breath. There is no need for a 90 minute evacuation. This parish president needs to shut up. I worked in emergency management for 27 years and people like him, going outside the normal SOP's, used to drive us nuts.


I am not going to fault a man, who is an official for his Parrish, to sound the alarm that a dam may break. You EM guys may not like it but when you are talking about a dam and the potential loss of live minutes make a difference.
MSC113-301915-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS
AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE
LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN
AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

DUE TO THE DAM FAILURE...WATER LEVELS ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR
CHATAWA AND OSYKA WILL RISE QUICKLY. NEAR OSYKA...THE RIVER WILL
RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET. THIS WILL BREAK THE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET
IN 1997. AT 21 FEET...THE RIVER WILL THREATEN THE ROADWAY APPROACH
TO HIGHWAY 584 AND WILL INUNDATE THE SURROUNDING AREAS. IF YOU
LIVE IN THESE AREAS...LEAVE IMMEDIATELY FOR HIGHER GROUND.

$$
LAC105-301900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1053 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS
AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE
LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN
AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

DUE TO THE DAM FAILURE...WATER LEVELS ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR
KENTWOOD ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17 FEET QUICKLY. THIS IS A VERY
SIMILAR LEVEL TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN 1990 AND 1983. IF YOU
WERE IMPACTED BY THE FLOODS OF 1990 OR 1983...LEAVE THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY FOR HIGHER GROUND.

$$
1388. sar2401
Quoting midgulfmom:
Dam being patched....MS official argueing with local TV station that "danger imminent" but evac is "encouraged" but not mandatory...??????? Really? What is this craziness? Reporter trying to get official to clarify what MS wants people to do. Official said "don't chance it but not mandatory" also said Dam is damaged but relieving pressure slowly by lowering water level. My translation..."Don't PANIC but panic"...still trying to clarify with official... Any engineers available? WTHeck?


They are lowering the level of the lake behind the dam with controlled releases. The dam may still fail but it's not likely to fail catastrophically. The amount of people downstream is minimal for over 20 miles. The amount of water being released will hardly be noticed in rivers already running out of their banks. Anyone in danger of flooding should have already been gone. This not the time to panic.
(Add: ?? if stage forecast when this was posted is a forecast made before or after dam breach.)


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1050 AM CDT...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL
LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER IN NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA PARISH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE
TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER IN
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE
LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KENTWOOD...AND OTHER LOW LYING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&
Pike County Civil Defense/Emergency Management
48 minutes ago
Flood warning for the Tangipahoa River at Osyka. The dam at Lake Tangipahoa, better known as Percy Quin State Park, has been damaged by the torrential rains from Hurricane Isaac, but is intact, and is not leaking. We are monitoring it.
All residents below the dam that live along the Tangipahoa River are being notified of the damage.

Source : Link
Region: JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
Geographic coordinates: 71.462N, 10.723W
Magnitude: 6.6 Mwb
Depth: 8 km
Universal Time (UTC): 30 Aug 2012 13:43:24
Time near the Epicenter: 30 Aug 2012 12:43:24
Local standard time in your area: 30 Aug 2012 13:43:24

Location with respect to nearby cities:
422 km (262 miles) ENE (70 degrees) of Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund), Greenld
937 km (582 miles) NNE (25 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland


Magnitude: 6.6 - Jan Mayen Island region
UTC Date and Time: Thu Aug 30 2012 13:43:24 GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)

Depth: 8 km (~5 mi)

Affected regions: No tsunami hazard.

General Information: Seaquakes of this magnitude can
sometimes cause submarine landslides which themselves
can cause destructive tsunamis. In this case there was no
considerable danger of such an event taking place.
Quoting sar2401:


They are lowering the level of the lake behind the dam with controlled releases. The dam may still fail but it's not likely to fail catastrophically. The amount of people downstream is minimal for over 20 miles. The amount of water being released will hardly be noticed in rivers already running out of their banks. Anyone in danger of flooding should have already been gone. This not the time to panic.


I don't think anyone is panicking...People are just concerned about the danger to lives and property
1393. 7544
when could we 99l ?
Quoting midgulfmom:
Dam being patched....MS official argueing with local TV station that "danger imminent" but evac is "encouraged" but not mandatory...??????? Really? What is this craziness? Reporter trying to get official to clarify what MS wants people to do. Official said "don't chance it but not mandatory" also said Dam is damaged but relieving pressure slowly by lowering water level. My translation..."Don't PANIC but panic"...still trying to clarify with official... Any engineers available? WTHeck?


Typical for MS EOC. Their coordination of events are always confusion. I agree with SAR that I would focus on reports coming from MEMA or NWS...
Quoting MTWX:
That excerpt is from NWS...


Yep, the stuff at NWS doesn't match entirely with MEMA, either. This looks at the very least to me like a pretty bad communication screw-up between MEMA, NWS, and LA officials.

Jindal is confirming the mandatory evac order right now in press conference.
No offense, but it's never time to "panic", but it is time to act. That's what the words:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

It's greater than the flash flood warning before. K?
Quoting Neapolitan:
MCCOMB, Miss. (AP) %u2014 Louisiana officials have ordered evacuation of low-lying, sparsely-populated areas along the Tangipahoa River because an Isaac-hammered dam at a state park lake in southwest Mississippi near the Louisiana border is in danger of failing.
Officials in Tangipahoa Parish, La., fear the water it would pour into the already swollen river would flood low-lying areas downstream from the park.

But Mississippi officials say they don't believe the volume of water in the 700-acre lake at Percy Quin State Park near McComb, Miss., would add enough flow to threaten communities downstream.
Source

Not saying that people shouldn't get out of the way as a precautionary measure, but this isn't Boulder Dam and Lake Mead; it's a low earthen levee containing a shallow one-square-mile lake.


Understand what you're saying, but considering the rainfall totals from Isaac I would be concerned about any sudden release of water.
1398. sar2401
Quoting CJ5:


I am not going to fault a man, who is an official for his Parrish, to sound the alarm that a dam may break. You EM guys may not like it but when you are talking about a dam and the potential loss of live minutes make a difference.


Us EM guys were the ones who actually knew the facts. Politicians didn't know squat until we briefed them. Politicians are not competent to be releasing information to the press, and are not supposed to. It's all this "information" coming from different sources that causes panic. Add in all the retransmission and embellishment caused by people on social media and you spread a full blown panic.
1399. LargoFl
Quoting unknowncomic:
Will TD12 follow Kirk?

A hurricane never follow the other
1401. LargoFl
10,000 sandbags will be available at 130 today at the Harrison County Road Center on Lorraine Road.
A week ago today I was looking at where to put a bunch of evacuees from Hurlburt AFB. So much changed in one week. Now I sit waiting for the last of Isaac to move out of my area.
Quoting sar2401:


They are lowering the level of the lake behind the dam with controlled releases. The dam may still fail but it's not likely to fail catastrophically. The amount of people downstream is minimal for over 20 miles. The amount of water being released will hardly be noticed in rivers already running out of their banks. Anyone in danger of flooding should have already been gone. This not the time to panic.
Listened to resident along the LA portion of the river that called the local TV station who was affected in 1983. Said he is leaving with family. During the 1983 break many were trapped in their homes and he lost some cattle to drowning... Just saying past experience would say to evac but not to panic but prepare to leave in caution.
Quoting 7544:
when could we 99l ?
next
1405. LargoFl
1406. CJ5
Quoting sar2401:


Us EM guys were the ones who actually knew the facts. Politicians didn't know squat until we briefed them. Politicians are not competent to be releasing information to the press, and are not supposed to. It's all this "information" coming from different sources that causes panic. Add in all the retrainmission and embellishment caused by people on social media and you spread a full blown panic.


I agree with this for the most part, however, if my family lives below a dam I am going to act when I hear "Paul Reverie" ride down my street. I am not going to wait for everyone to brief each other so they can get a nice canned warning out to the press. The guy may have to change his story later, but his intentions of trying to save lives should not be taken lightly or demonized. Panic or not.
Quoting Neapolitan:
With Kirk now a hurricane, 2012 is a day ahead of 2005 for the number of named storms, and tied with that year for the number of hurricanes. However, that's about where the comparison ends. Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:

2012
Chris: Cat 1 / ACE 2.7675
Ernesto: Cat 1 / ACE 7.6625
Gordon: Cat 2 / ACE 8.19
Isaac: Cat 1 / ACE 9.4425
Kirk: Cat 1 / ACE 1.6575 (and counting)
Total ACE from hurricanes: 29.72

2005
Cindy: Cat 1 / ACE 1.52
Dennis: Cat 4 / ACE 18.8
Emily: Cat 5 / ACE 32.9
Irene: Cat 2 / ACE 13.1
Katrina: Cat 5 / ACE 20.0
Total ACE from hurricanes: 86.32

And that's not even looking at deaths or damage, both of which were, of course, vastly higher in 2005, both by a factor of nearly 100-to-1.



You forgot rita and wilma.
1408. LargoFl
1409. sar2401
Quoting farupnorth:
Pike County Civil Defense/Emergency Management
48 minutes ago
Flood warning for the Tangipahoa River at Osyka. The dam at Lake Tangipahoa, better known as Percy Quin State Park, has been damaged by the torrential rains from Hurricane Isaac, but is intact, and is not leaking. We are monitoring it.
All residents below the dam that live along the Tangipahoa River are being notified of the damage.

Source : Link


From the same Facebook page:

Pam Duncan: Homeland Security said it had been Breeched on TV !!! He said GET OUT NOW !!!

This is what I mean by spreading panic.
T.C.F.W.
12L/TC/L/CX
MARK
14.25N/44.40W
Quoting 7544:
when could we 99l ?


When it forms

anytime
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yep, the stuff at NWS doesn't match entirely with MEMA, either. This looks at the very least to me like a pretty bad communication screw-up between MEMA, NWS, and LA officials.

Jindal is confirming the mandatory evac order right now in press conference.
Clearly LA issued a mandatory evac order.

?? if MS has.

NWS is issuing flash flood emergency warnings.
Quoting DataNerd:



You forgot rita and wilma.

"Here are the two season's to-date tale of the tape:"

Reading is a good thing.
Isaac has deposited a bunch of frigate birds in Pensacola (Cuba being the nearest portion of their range). A bunch are hanging like kites over Bayfront Parkway downtown.
1415. LargoFl
•One inch of rain falling on 1 acre of ground is equal to about 27,154 gallons..USGS
1416. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
•One inch of rain falling on 1 acre of ground is equal to about 27,154 gallons..USGS
and some places already have recieved 14-16 inches
Some places are using Facebook as official places to go for information, for example Hurlburt AFB has an official facebook page letting them know what is opened, where to get sandbags, who has to come in, etc. I think we're going to see more use of FB in official capacities.

Quoting sar2401:


They are lowering the level of the lake behind the dam with controlled releases. The dam may still fail but it's not likely to fail catastrophically. The amount of people downstream is minimal for over 20 miles. The amount of water being released will hardly be noticed in rivers already running out of their banks. Anyone in danger of flooding should have already been gone. This not the time to panic.


I am lake property, but not lakefront. Our lake is always lowered prior to a hurricane or TS. I wonder if they did that with this lake prior to Isaac?
1419. sar2401
Quoting CJ5:


I agree with this for the most part, however, if my family lives below a dam I am going to act when I hear "Paul Reverie" ride down my street. I am not going to wait for everyone to brief each other so they can get a nice canned warning out to the press. The guy may have to change his story later, but his intentions of trying to save lives should not be taken lightly or demonized. Panic or not.


Until about 20 miles downstream, there is mostly pasture and farmland threatened. The total flow, even if the dam completely failed, which it hasn't, and it's not likely, would be about a 6 foot rise. Controlled releases will cause more on the order of a 1 foot rise. This will hardly be noticed in already flood swollen rivers. It's one thing for a politician to comment on a potential dam failure, it's quite another to say you have 90 minutes to get out or you're all going to die. People also die when engaged in panicked evacuations that have no basis in fact from traffic accidents.
1420. LargoFl
overland 09L

Quoting sar2401:


Until about 20 miles downstream, there is mostly pasture and farmland threatened. The total flow, even if the dam completely failed, which it hasn't, and it's not likely, would be about a 6 foot rise. Controlled releases will cause more on the order of a 1 foot rise. This will hardly be noticed in already flood swollen rivers. It's one thing for a politician to comment on a potential dam failure, it's quite another to say you have 90 minutes to get out or you're all going to die. People also die when engaged in panicked evacuations that have no basis in fact from traffic accidents.


Mississippi is breaching the lake to lessen the the threat so.
Quoting EcoLogic:
Isaac has deposited a bunch of frigate birds in Pensacola (Cuba being the nearest portion of their range). A bunch are hanging like kites over Bayfront Parkway downtown.
Shrimpers in LA say when they see those offshore they know it's time to leave....
1424. LargoFl
the dam at pike county,ms............
So, my cousin who just lost her home in LaPlace is now hunkered down with my uncle. And he lives East of Hammond. Hope that levee doesn't break.

BTW, both of these areas have historically been safe.

Cat-1? Wow!
This is new 1006 mb. low pressure in the SW Caribbean in 348 hrs.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1428. LargoFl
1429. 7544
looking at the last gfs anything forms after td 12 will follow the same path as kirk and td 12 so we can relax for now but it will be interesting to see if td 12 gets further west in the next 24 hours ,and misses the weakness but oscar may be a surpise to all imo
Quoting EcoLogic:
Isaac has deposited a bunch of frigate birds in Pensacola (Cuba being the nearest portion of their range). A bunch are hanging like kites over Bayfront Parkway downtown.


Frigate birds nest off Cedar Key Florida. I was amazed to see them there a couple years ago.
1431. flsky
Updated statement as of 12:30 ETLink
1432. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I am lake property, but not lakefront. Our lake is always lowered prior to a hurricane or TS. I wonder if they did that with this lake prior to Isaac?


It's not a lake dam that can be opened and closed. Most of our state park lakes are creek fed and have and overflow culvert on the downstream end.

When rains like this occur, the culvert cannot release the water as fast as it's coming in.... creating the problems mentioned.
1433. sar2401
Quoting midgulfmom:
Listened to resident along the LA portion of the river that called the local TV station who was affected in 1983. Said he is leaving with family. During the 1983 break many were trapped in their homes and he lost some cattle to drowning... Just saying past experience would say to evac but not to panic but prepare to leave in caution.


Correct. This dam had a much bigger failure in 1983 and no lives were lost. As I have already posted, it's pasture and crop land that would be flooded in the event of an uncontrolled failure. The people who live along the river are aware of the dangers from this dam.
Long time lurker first time poster. Thanks to everyone for the input for all the storms..Hopefully this new one forming will do the classic re-curve and give all the wave starved east coast surfers some waves with out striking any land. I feel bad for always getting exciting seeing these storms form up and all I can think is waves. But looking the images from Issac's destruction on the Gulf Coast makes me think otherwise. Those poor people Katrina wipes them out then now Issac.

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Some places are using Facebook as official places to go for information, for example Hurlburt AFB has an official facebook page letting them know what is opened, where to get sandbags, who has to come in, etc. I think we're going to see more use of FB in official capacities.

Yes. Many state and county emergency management offices use facebook. So does NWS. During the 2011 Mississippi River flood, lots of official info came out from Parish, county and COE on facebook pages. As a side note, Reed Timmer may not be "official" but I sure monitor his tweets when tornadoes threaten.
:)

Add: Ps LOL. New blog. Ho hum... Bye bye)
I do know for a Cat1 storm it sure has been crazy here in the Mobile AL area, as well as MS / LA.... just saying




Taco :o(
Quoting sar2401:


Until about 20 miles downstream, there is mostly pasture and farmland threatened. The total flow, even if the dam completely failed, which it hasn't, and it's not likely, would be about a 6 foot rise. Controlled releases will cause more on the order of a 1 foot rise. This will hardly be noticed in already flood swollen rivers.


What?

6 ft puts the river at ~17 ft. That's a catastrophic and historic flood with the "already swollen" river, which would then overflow all over the place. I live by a river that has had huge floods. When they're "already swollen," another foot or two can turn it into total catastrophe. You notice a foot when it's already too high, because it's over the banks and filling your friggin' neighborhood.

That 20 miles of farm is about 90 min warning for larger communities with that much water coming downstream, and the farmers ain't no worry, either.

Jindal confirmed that evac along the river in LA is mandatory and that the dam is not breached but is damaged, damage still being assessed.

"Don't panic" is always a good message, but one of the things in my experience that _feeds panic_ is feeling like the authorities are feeding you "nothing to see here" BS. I've lived that.

Done arguing over it. Folks close in below the dam should get out IMO regardless, because if it does fully breach, they won't have a whole lot of warning. And I hope everybody down there is safe and attentive, neither panicking nor thinking it's all just dandy no worries.
1438. sar2401
Quoting flsky:
Updated statement as of 12:30 ETLink


From the article:

"Mayor Whitney Rawlings of McComb, Miss., told CBS News that there was a "50-50 chance" of the dam failing at Lake Tangipahoa in Mississippi's Percy Quinn State Park, just south of McComb. He urged people south of the dam to evacuate.
"People need to be moving," Rawlings told CBS News.

In Louisiana, Tangipahoa Parish President Gordon Burgess issued an emergency alert warning of an "imminent failure" at the dam. Burgess said between 50,000-60,000 people had 90 minutes to evacuate, CBS New Orleans affiliate WWL-TV reports."

Again, politicians should let EMA officials release official information. Still, you can see the difference in the statement between the McComb mayor and Parish President Gordie calling WWL directly and issuing his "90 minute" evacuation order. I'm really hoping people here will stick to sources like the local and state EMA's, as well as the NWS, and not take every word from a TV station, a politician, or social media as gospel.

1439. sar2401
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


What?

6 ft puts the river at ~17 ft. That's a catastrophic and historic flood with the "already swollen" river, which would then overflow all over the place. I live by a river that has had huge floods. When they're "already swollen," another foot or two can turn it into total catastrophe. You notice a foot when it's already too high, because it's over the banks and filling your friggin' neighborhood.

That 20 miles of farm is about 90 min warning for larger communities with that much water coming downstream, and the farmers ain't no worry, either.

Jindal confirmed that evac along the river in LA is mandatory and that the dam is not breached but is damaged, damage still being assessed.

"Don't panic" is always a good message, but one of the things in my experience that _feeds panic_ is feeling like the authorities are feeding you "nothing to see here" BS. I've lived that.

Done arguing over it. Folks close in below the dam should get out IMO regardless, because if it does fully breach, they won't have a whole lot of warning. And I hope everybody down there is safe and attentive, neither panicking nor thinking it's all just dandy no worries.


Agreed, although, again, the dam has not, and is not likey, to catastrophically fail, so the 6 foot number is the worst case. Still, there is plenty of time to evacuate if it's needed. My heartburn is one politician calling a TV station and issuing his own 90 minute evacuation order. It wasn't needed, spread panic, and made rumor control that much more difficult.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
This is an example of why we need to be careful with our comments.

This was posted here yesterday

3308. depalma13 2:31 PM GMT on August 28, 2012 +1

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
My thoughts and prayers with all in the path of Isaac. I hope the levees doesn't break this time.




If the levees break, than New Orleans should be abandoned forever. This is a Tropical Storm/barely Cat 1 Hurricane. It is not a life or death situation. It's time for everyone to stop panicing because of a little water and and wind.


I would like to know what are the thoughts of depalma13 right now.


My thoughts haven't changed at all. It was a Cat One storm. Flooding occurs in a Cat One Storm. Flooding occurs at a greater rate when you build homes below sea level.

You guys are all still upset you didn't get the Cat 4 or 5 monster you wished for. When you were told for days it would never be greater than a weak Cat 2. You are probably still upset it didn't increase to a Cat 2 before landing like you dreamed of.

This blog is filled with Chicken Littles.
1441. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:
I do know for a Cat1 storm it sure has been crazy here in the Mobile AL area, as well as MS / LA.... just saying




Taco :o(


That's for sure. More storms are about to hit the Mobile area, and the rainband is now spreading into central AL, with us being under a tornado watch. There's also a tertiary rainband developing off the Gulf and over the Panhandle, into south and central AL. Even as Isaac weakens, he's still spreading some mean weather several hundred miles to the east.
Quoting CJ5:


I agree with this for the most part, however, if my family lives below a dam I am going to act when I hear "Paul Reverie" ride down my street. I am not going to wait for everyone to brief each other so they can get a nice canned warning out to the press. The guy may have to change his story later, but his intentions of trying to save lives should not be taken lightly or demonized. Panic or not.


well said
Quoting sar2401:


From the article:

"Mayor Whitney Rawlings of McComb, Miss., told CBS News that there was a "50-50 chance" of the dam failing at Lake Tangipahoa in Mississippi's Percy Quinn State Park, just south of McComb. He urged people south of the dam to evacuate.
"People need to be moving," Rawlings told CBS News.

In Louisiana, Tangipahoa Parish President Gordon Burgess issued an emergency alert warning of an "imminent failure" at the dam. Burgess said between 50,000-60,000 people had 90 minutes to evacuate, CBS New Orleans affiliate WWL-TV reports."

Again, politicians should let EMA officials release official information. Still, you can see the difference in the statement between the McComb mayor and Parish President Gordie calling WWL directly and issuing his "90 minute" evacuation order. I'm really hoping people here will stick to sources like the local and state EMA's, as well as the NWS, and not take every word from a TV station, a politician, or social media as gospel.



You are assuming that everyone has access to all of the different groups you have listed. When anything of this type occurs, you should err on the side of caution. It is also not smart to assume that the majority has the ability to filter out the messages across 5 different mediums.