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Is U.S. climate getting more extreme?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on March 13, 2009

Is the climate in the U.S. getting more extreme? The answer to this question depends upon how one defines "extreme". For example, the number of extreme tornadoes (violent EF-4 and EF-5 twisters) has not increased in recent years. We lack the data to judge whether there has been an increase in severe thunderstorms and hail. There has been a marked increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 (though the possible contribution of human-caused global warming to this increase is not something hurricane scientists agree upon). Since it is difficult to quantify how severe storms like tornadoes and hurricanes are changing, a better measure of how climate extremes are changing is to look at temperature and precipitation, which are well-measured. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has developed a Climate Extremes Index to attempt to quantify whether or not the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is based upon three parameters:

1) Monthly maximum and minimum temperature
2) Daily precipitation
3) Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

The temperature data is taken from 1100 stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), a network of stations that have a long period of record, with little missing data. The temperature data is corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, as well as for station and instrument changes. The precipitation data is taken from 1300 National Weather Service Cooperative stations. The Climate Extremes Index defines "much above normal" as the highest 10% of data, "much below normal" as the lowest 10%, and is the average of these five quantities:

1) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.

2) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much above normal.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

4) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

5) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI), updated through 2008, shows that U.S. climate has been getting more extreme since the early 1970s. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center. On average since 1910, 20% of the U.S. has seen extreme conditions in a given year (thick black line).

As summarized by Gleason et al. (2008), the National Climatic Data Center concludes that based on the Climate Extremes Index, the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation generally increased since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in the summer. No trend in extremes were noted for winter. The annual CEI index plot averaged for all five temperature and precipitation indices (Figure 1) showed that five of the fifteen most extreme years on record occurred since 1997. Shorter-lived periods with high CEI values occurred in the 1930s and 1950s, in association with widespread extreme drought and above-average temperatures. The most extreme year in U.S. history was 1998, with 1934 a close second. The year 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history, with a record 78% of the U.S. experiencing minimum temperatures much above normal. That year also had a record 23% of the U.S. with much greater than normal precipitation from extreme 1-day precipitation events. The 1934 extreme in CEI was due in large part because of the most widespread drought of the century--a full 52% of the U.S. was affected by severe or extreme drought conditions. That year also saw a record 64% of the U.S. with much above normal maximum temperatures.

The impact of maximum and minimum temperatures on the Climate Extreme Index
It is very interesting to look at the five separate indices that go into the Climate Extremes Index. Today I'll look at temperature, and next week, I'll focus on drought and precipitation. The portion of the U.S. experiencing month-long maximum temperatures either much above normal or much below normal has been about 10% over the past century (black lines in Figure 2). However, over the past decade, about 20-25% of the U.S. has been experiencing monthly maximum temperatures much above normal, and the portion of the U.S. experiencing much colder than normal high temperatures has been near zero. Minimum temperatures show a similar behavior, but have increased more than the maximums (Figure 3). Over the past decade, minimum temperatures much above normal have affected 25-35% of the U.S. This means that the daily range of temperature (difference between minimum and maximum) has decreased over the past decade, which is what global warming says should be happening if greenhouse gases are primarily to blame for the rise in temperatures.

While there have been a few years (1921, 1934) when the portion of the U.S. experiencing much above normal maximum temperatures was greater than anything observed in the past decade, the sustained lack of maximum temperatures much below normal over the past decade is unique. The behavior of minimum temperatures over the past decade is clearly unprecedented--both in the lack of minimum temperatures much below normal, and in the abnormal portion of the U.S. with much above normal minimum temperatures. Remember that these data ARE corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, so we cannot blame increased urbanization on the increase in temperatures. Recall that the all-time record maximum and minimum temperature data, which I presented in a post in February, are not corrected for the Urban Heat Island Effect, but look very similar to the CEI maximum and minimum temperature trends presented here.

A lot of people have told me that they believe we are experiencing more wild swings of temperature from hot to cold from day to day in recent years, but the CEI data does not answer this question. To my knowledge, a study of this kind has not been done.


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for maximum temperature, updated through 2008, shows that 20-25% of U.S. has had maximum temperatures much above normal over the past decade. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for minimum temperature, updated through 2008, shows that 25-35% of U.S. has had minimum temperatures much above normal over the past decade. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

References
Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Annual WeatherDance contest ready for registration!
Armchair forecasters, now's your chance to shine! WeatherDance, based on teams in the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments, allows players to predict which team's city will be hotter or colder on game day in each round of the Big Dance. Beginning today, players can make their forecasts at the Weather Dance Web site at: www.weatherdance.org. The site will be updated with cities promptly after NCAA seeding announcements. First round Weather Dance selections must be entered by 11:59 p.m. EDT Wednesday, March 18.

"Officially, Weather Dance began as a class project to get students involved in weather forecasting, but we kept it around because it got popular. People think they can do better forecasting than the meteorologists. Well, here's their shot!" said Perry Samson, WeatherDance creator, co-founder of the The Weather Underground, Inc., and Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences at the University of Michigan.

This is the fifth year for the game. Last year more than 2,000 people played. Most play merely for the thrill, but many K-12 science teachers involve their classes as part of meteorology units. The winning teacher will receive an expense-paid trip to join the Texas Tech/University of Michigan Storm Chasing team this spring for a day of tornado chasing in Tornado Alley. Other winners will receive a Weather Underground umbrella, "Extreme Weather" mugs, or a copy of the book "Extreme Weather," by Christopher C. Burt.

I'll talk about drought and precipitation trends in my next post, Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Record Report

Statement as of 4:30 PM EDT on March 16, 2009

... Record high temperature set at Daytona Beach...

a record high temperature of 90 degrees was set at Daytona Beach
today. This breaks the old record of 89 set in 1973.

A little rain in the area missed my parched front lawn, but got me when I went out for a 15 mile bike ride.
Vort~ I'll check it out in a bit. I gotta run for now.
Quoting Skyepony:


It would be interesting to see how the chaos equation would do in peer review. Math has come a ways in figuring out natural shapes, movements & patterns, like how a school of fish would react to a ripple. Not sure if it has nailed chaos yet or my 5 day forcast should be better. Also his idea of a climate shift is totally different than what is being refured to in climate change. His work is the little ups & downs, the patterns over one to a few decades. To compare it to ENSO he is watching every little up & down, not the big picture~ as in if overall we are trending up & down. He's throwing out alot of peer reviewed stuff saying we don't understand natural forcings so how can we understand human's forcings.. That cooling in the '70s was a huge volcano. ENSO cycles, the sun cycles, how the earth travels cycles we do understand these things. (not that every question is answered but he's tossing baby with bath water here). Sounds like a steeper study in math than climate & geology.

This aerosol thing isn't new. Pan evaperation rates (which farmers have done & recorded for centuries) is a solid base for the data. Google PBS Dimming the Sun, very comprehensive, all angles. Some is caused by contrails. After 911 & taking the planes out of the sky for 3 days the studies concluded contrails make the USA ~5ºF cooler. Others contributers is industry. We used to make things here, the aerosols released caused that huge drought & famine in Etheopia, documents released from the govt said was the result of their studies. Those paticular aerosols prevented water from grasping them, so no rain could be made down wind. We stopped making what ever it was in the NE & Etheopia once again got rain. My aunt who lives in Calif jokes their drought is from living down wind from China now that all our crap is made there.. Maybe the down swing in the economy has brought them rain..lol.

Back from the tangent, it really is no suprise we just had our coolest year in the last 10 years..with Aerosols at an all time high, during back to back La Niñas & a period of very low sunspot activity I would have thought it would have been cooler had it not been for the record greenhouse emissions & the 0 attempt at reducing the black soot that ends up on the ice at the north pole. The soot itself is blamed for a +5ºF increase in temps so in the math of it all, 2 forms of pollution, the soot & aerosols about cancel each other out.


Thanks Skyepony, that's what we are looking for overall. It has become very difficult to decipher what is right, what is wrong, and what is real and not. All we have is us to figure it out and we will.
OK darlin...I'll post it again up here on top so you don't forget!
LOL



Update: More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims

Outpouring of Skeptical Scientists Continues as 59 Scientists Added to Senate Report

The %uFFFDscience has, quite simply, gone awry



Washington DC: Fifty nine additional scientists from around the world have been added to the U.S. Senate Minority Report of dissenting scientists, pushing the total to over 700 skeptical international scientists a dramatic increase from the original 650 scientists featured in the initial December 11, 2008 release. The 59 additional scientists added to the 255-page Senate Minority report since the initial release 13 %uFFFD weeks ago represents an average of over four skeptical scientists a week. This updated report which includes yet another former UN IPCC scientist represents an additional 300 (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the initial report's release in December 2007.

The over 700 dissenting scientists are now more than 13 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. The 59 additional scientists hail from all over the world, including Japan, Italy, UK, Czech Republic, Canada, Netherlands, the U.S. and many are affiliated with prestigious institutions including, NASA, U.S. Navy, U.S. Defense Department, Energy Department, U.S. Air Force, the Philosophical Society of Washington (the oldest scientific society in Washington), Princeton University, Tulane University, American University, Oregon State University, U.S. Naval Academy and EPA.

The explosion of skeptical scientific voices is accelerating unabated in 2009. A March 14, 2009 article in the Australian revealed that Japanese scientists are now at the forefront of rejecting man-made climate fears prompted by the UN IPCC.

Prominent Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, a professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology%u2019s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences who has authored more than 125 scientific publications, said in March 2009 that %u201Cthere was widespread skepticism among his colleagues about the IPCC's fourth and latest assessment report that most of the observed global temperature increase since the mid-20th century %u2018is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.%u201D Maruyama noted that when this question was raised at a Japan Geoscience Union symposium last year, %u2018the result showed 90 per cent of the participants do not believe the IPCC report.%u201D


Link
aww heck Hiexpress -- you know it felt good to cycle in the rain --Lordy, I can't wait to run in the rain, sit in the rain -- DANCE IN THE RAIN
ok kids...off topic and I'm willing to take the ban but I gotta yell it - WE'RE OUTTA HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Back to San Diego and hopefully before hurricane season starts....



Link
Celebrate!!! May your new journey be blessed with fair skies!!!!!
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm reading comments about FL being in a severe drought. I know that it has been dry here in the Tampa area and to our north but didn't most of the state get excessive rains from Faye last year?

that was last year
this year whole different ballgame excessive dry spell over s fla and it may continue for a time yet
as for fay thats all but a memory
iam also a little concearned for lack of a severe season so far been rather light which has me thinking about whats yet to come
iam also a little concearned for lack of a severe season so far been rather light which has me thinking about whats yet to come


I've been thinking the same thoughts Keep!

Thanks Surfmom!!!! Totally celebrating and trying to make all the plans - finally feel like the feet are out of the mud!

Anyone need a place to crash during evac...San Diego is awfully nice weather...
Hey Surfmom,
We're waiting for those summer daily showers, but then we'll be ducking the lightning. Can we make it through without anything severe in April, or burning the state down in May? Can't fight the weather, got to live on it's schedule if you're outdoors much.
i know there is no co-relation but if we get no big severe season we may get no big cane season and it just may end up very dry very hot summer season for all of north america dry everything right up mom nature is thowing a curve ball going to be interesting
Quoting melwerle:
Thanks Surfmom!!!! Totally celebrating and trying to make all the plans - finally feel like the feet are out of the mud!

Anyone need a place to crash during evac...San Diego is awfully nice weather...

Actually, my son who lives near San Diego says they have four seasons: Drought, Fire, Earthquake, and Mudslide.
You can run, but you can't hide!
513. Lived there for twenty years...I know the seasons by now...not fond of fire - did the whole fire thing back in 2003 (Cedar fires and then Otay fires and then everything fires!) - right up to our house but we were okay...earthquakes...not fond either. Gotta love no GNATS, NO BITING FLIES though.

Gotta pick your poison!
Good evening everyone....i hope we get some response to the Charity Event for Portlight. Please let me know if you don't know what to do! I hope it is explained well....

March Madness Charity Link
515. TampaSpin
Thursday evening is not too late for March Madness Charity pick is it?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
515. TampaSpin
Thursday evening is not too late is it?


The brackets auto lock out before the games begin! You must be complete by 12 noon on Thursday!
Ok.... Will do

BTW, I like your website - nicely done
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Ok.... Will do

BTW, I like your website - nicely done


thanks
There is a dedicated featured blog for all Portlight business.

Here is the link
Quoting vortfix:
There is a dedicated featured blog for all Portlight business.

Here is the link


And your point! This site is also a good spot!
Latest Video From Futuremet Productions

Click HD button for high definition

Quoting vortfix:
There is a dedicated featured blog for all Portlight business.

Here is the link
Quoting vortfix:


In case you did not know but, WU is a sponser for Portlight!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-110E
12:15 PM WDT March 17 2009
=====================================

A slow moving tropical low lies near 10S 086E [west of the forecast area] and is expected to remain west of 090E during the outlook period.

A low in the vicinity of 12S 120E is expected to be west of 110E by Thursday. The low is expected to develop and may reach cyclone intensity on Thursday or Friday. At this stage it is not likely to impact Christmas or Cocos Islands as it expected to pass to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: High
Friday: High

Quoting KEHCharleston:
Seems folks in the south have 2 good reasons to get rid of the dead wood.
1)Fire control
2)Preparation for Hurricane season



Yes we have to get a giant pine tree brought down and its not dead. Just really lucky it hasnt taken out a house yet. And it appears that Ike is still claiming victims. Trees that is. We were told to wait to see if the trees came back in the spring before declaring them dead. But it looks like two in my yard dont have a leaf on them. The rest have been green since February. I'm hoping they do come to leaf soon. I cant tell the difference between one tree and another without the leaves. Just find it odd that the grass came back and all but two trees.
In case you did not know but, WU is a sponser for Portlight!


That is why they have given Portlight a dedicated featured blog!

I am also a sponsor of Portlight...I do not post that information on Dr. Master's blog.

Vort~ I remember when Senator Inhofe's 650 Dissent list came out in Dec.. First lets look at Inhofe..

In 2003, on the floor of the U.S. Senate, Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe shared his thoughts on global warming with the American people. He said “much of the debate over global warming is predicated on fear rather than science.” He called the threat of catastrophic global warming the “greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
Then, on Fox and Friends, Inhofe argued that this hoax was a part of a diabolical plan by Hollywood, that din of liberal decadence and nastiness; media titan George Soros; and “the far-left environmentalists on the committee” that he chaired before the 2006 midterm elections to put ideology before science, dogma before country. There, Inhofe said, “Now look, God’s still up there. We still have these natural changes, and this is what’s going on right now.”
And — and this part is especially important — Inhofe put on a straight face and told the American people that the Weather Channel has a liberal bias.


& lets check the oil ties..

In 2002, Mr. Inhofe ranked in Congress as the top recipient of campaign contributions from oil and gas.

Last week's news..

After His Climate Denial Machine Is Exposed, Marc Morano Will Leave Senate Post
Marc MoranoA top aide for Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) will be leaving his Senate post after a Wonk Room investigation revealed how he coordinates the right-wing climate denial machine. Marc Morano, Inhofe’s environmental communications director, joined the Senate in 2006 to promote Sen. Inhofe’s denial of manmade global warming via the Drudge Report and other right-wing outlets. E&E News reports that Morano will return to the conservative media network as a blogger for Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT):

& back to the list... the origanal 650 was pretty scetchy Many aren't climate scientists & you don't need to dissent AGW, just not 100% agree with IPCC report. Much of the IPCC report was wrong. More of Antartica, greenland & summer sea ice is gone than was anticipated. Feedback loops are worse than it was anticipated. Some feed backloops & natuarl sea hieght variation with higher ocean levels weren't accounted for.

Looking at actual conditions things are happening faster than the worst models predicted. You have a list of 700 of varying degrees of disagreeance with IPCC report that is pretty much coming on 3 years old now...What about the last few weeks..

In what was described as a watershed moment, more than 2,500 leading environmental experts agreed a statement that called on governments to act before the planet becomes an unrecognisable – and, in places, impossible – place to live.

At an emergency climate summit in Copenhagen, scientists agreed that "worst case" scenarios were already becoming reality and that, unless drastic action was taken soon, "dangerous climate change" was imminent.

In a strongly worded message that, unusually for academics, appealed directly to politicians, they said there was "no excuse for inaction" and that "weak and "ineffective" governments must stand up to big business and "vested interests".

Steps should be "vigorously and widely implemented", they said, to reduce greenhouse gases. Failure to do so would result in "significant risk" of "irreversible climatic shifts", the statement added.


Even if CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas (just saying), burning natural resources is polluting in a bad way for us, our kids & the other critters. There is cleaner ways that could make us all a little richer.
Quoting vortfix:
In case you did not know but, WU is a sponser for Portlight!


That is why they have given Portlight a dedicated featured blog!

I am also a sponsor of Portlight...I do not post that information on Dr. Master's blog.



Your the first on my ignore list this year.....Your #1 congratulations.
Your the first on my ignore list this year.....Your #1 congratulations.

So like you matter?

Take off...
Skye...this is what you always do...you attack the source and never can you argue the facts involved!

hey ts the crap should be kept on the blog it was design for and not to be blasted all over the site till it becomes consumed by it
by the way chill the @#$! out will ya
and i can be num 2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by the way chill the @#$! out will ya


You 2 must be twins.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Your the first on my ignore list this year.....Your #1 congratulations.


You put him on your ignore list for that? For pointing out a fact? Please make me #2.
Here's 47 pages or more regarding AGW deniers Skye....please argue these sources.
I'm sure every single one is bought and paid for by some oil company...LMAO!

Link
Damn..was I to late to be #2... ok.. #3 then
Dam i love that ignore button.
Vort~ some on the list are AGW deniers & climate scientist...sooo~ There's a few climate scientist out there that don't think CFC's cause a hole in the ozone. What about the 2500 specialists from around the globe pleading for the govt to stop business as usual? That's going beyond attacking the source. Jeez man how about a source that isn't such an easy target. When your top guy admits to being head of such a media clearing house for denier info & has to step down cause of it~ last week, I can't not drag charactor of source around a little, for fun..
542. GBlet
less concrete, more grass...
pretty lonly place if ya use that button too much ts ask stl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
pretty lonly place if ya use that button too much ts ask stl


Your just a big bully... you COTU people are meanies
This is from the Los Angeles Times Skye.
Definitely bought by Saudi oil!
LOL




Global warming: Do Americans care?

5:54 PM, March 16, 2009


The Gallup poll has been asking Americans what they think about global warming for more than a decade. Is public concern increasing? One might think so, given the past year’s tsunami of scary climate science and the push to laws to control planet-heating greenhouse gases.

Not so, according to a survey of 1,021 adults questioned March 5 to 8.

Sixty percent of all those queried — down from 66% last year — say global warming is a problem they personally worried about either “a great deal” or “a fair amount.”

And a record high, 41% of those interviewed, believed the media “generally exaggerates” the seriousness of global warming. That was up from 35% last year, and only 30% in 2006.

Does the skepticism flow from the nation’s new economic gloom? If so, other environmental issues would presumably suffer equal drops. But the 2009 survey measured concern about eight specific environmental issues. “Not only does global warming rank last on the basis of the total percentage concerned either ‘a great deal’ or ‘a fair amount’, but it is the only issue for which public concern dropped significantly in the past year,” Gallup said. Concern over water pollution, toxics and rainforests, among other issues, remained stable.

What’s to make of this?

Because California has adopted the nation’s most sweeping plan to control greenhouse gases, we asked several of the state’s global warming experts to respond.

....continue reading.....

be nice orca or i'll get the harpoon
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
be nice orca or i'll get the harpoon


Yup.. just a bully...
Bedtime for me.. play nice :)
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket

GASP... and how long have you been saving that one?

BTW, thats not an ORCA :)
later orca have a good sleep dont have no nightmares about whale hunting
So you all think that a Fundraiser for Portlight does not belong on Dr. Masters Blog....I would love to hear what Dr. Masters view on this would be since his blog is a sponser.
iam out btoo later all see ya in the morning
imo it should be posted on the site that was design for it the portlight blog or your own blog but not on someone elses blog unless you have written permission to do so if ya want to be techical
Current Dr. Master's blog topic:


Is U.S. climate getting more extreme?

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
iam out
Drove past a brush fire off the interstate on my way to work tonight. Bad stuff. Gonna have to get out the face masks soon, can't take all the smoke with my asthma. We really need some rain.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL LOW
3:50 PM WDT March 17 2009
===========================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low [1006 hPa] located at 12.1S 118.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 115.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 13.4S 112.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN (CAT 1)
18:00 PM FST March 17 2009
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ken, Category One [995 hPa] located at 21.7S 162.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots. Position POOR based on Multispectral infrared imagery with animation and Microwave Pass.

Gale-Force Winds
============
120 nautical miles of the center

The low level circulation center slipping under deep convection. Spiral band to east consolidating and wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to south through east and northwest but restricted elsewhere.

Dvorak analysis based on a 0.60 wrap on LOG10 Spiral results in DT=PT=MET=3.0 FT Based on DT

YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

Shortwave upper trough passing over the system. A mid level ridge to the east is expected to steer the system southeastward. Global models support further intensification and quickly moves Ken southeast. ECMWF indicates an amplifying thermal trough to the west of Ken and this is expected to deepen the system rapidly in the next 24 hours.


Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 23.6S 161.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.5S 160.0W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 29.1S 156.4W - 55 knots (CAT 2)

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 14:30 PM UTC..
Happy St. Patty's Day


I had given up my Stir Stick for Lent, and do not mean this to be a rehash of last night.

I agree that Portlight business should for the most part be placed on that blog (I will try to be more careful in the future - cause I am certainly guilty as well). I could also do without the stock report or political commentary. However, I believe that the announcements of WU-sponsored events is a horse of a different color - and very appropriate to announce on the main blog. Support of Portlight has been discussed by Dr.Masters on this blog.
I also feel announcements of Blog Refresh, of updates to personal weather blogs, questions to the WU community at large regarding weather stations, hurricane supply recipes, etc are appropriate. I very much appreciate them, and I suspect others do as well

During the off season, so many topics have been discussed here, and there are few who have kept to weather/blog topic (Skyepony and Futuremet, HadesGodsWyvern come to mind).

Umm... how many days till you know what and the blog needs to stay tropical and the trolls come out to play?
In the mean time, give each other a bit of slack. An Irish Saying.....
Here's to you as good as you are

and here's to me as bad as I am

As Good As you are and as bad as I am

I'm as Good as you are

As Bad As I am!


May the wind be at your back, y'all




heavy downpour last night for about a minute. first rain in about a month e cent. fl. happo weather
"Umm... how many days till you know what and the blog needs to stay tropical and the trolls come out to play?
In the mean time, give each other a bit of slack. An Irish Saying.....

Here's to you as good as you are

and here's to me as bad as I am

As Good As you are and as bad as I am

I'm as Good as you are

As Bad As I am! " Thank you KEHCharleston and may I add: May the rains fall gently on your fields. For those of us on the drought zones here in Texas and in Florida. Happy St. Patricks to all.



May the wind be at your back, y'all


April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!

2009 National Hurricane Conference
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

Mirror Site

Current Home weather station data.

Morning Everyone! Happy St. Patricks Day!

Its rather sad when a organization like NOAA decides to ignore the rules of science and data that does not fit their preconceived opinion. You can determine weather cycles that span thousands of years on 100 years of data. Its like taking a sample of the water in a tea cup to determine the composition of a lake. You have to sample the entire thousand years. AND listen to other scientists, and engineers.
Quoting melwerle:
Morning Everyone! Happy St. Patricks Day!



Its going to be a long day... I don't think I own anything green.. SWMBO is sort of laughing at me.
We have records from Ship Voyages,like the British and Spanish who were careful record keepers and many other's going back 500 years easily..

Ice core samples...and geologic evidence of which you sadly arent aware of poster,too.

So, take a lil time to research such a wide portrait yer Painting.

Pick another color..





Say..er,Green?
Looks like there is some precipitation moving west to east associated with the front in the gulf. I really hope it all does fizzle out before it reaches ecfl. Looks like our chances are only today and tomorrow, and then were back to lower humidity. No good.
I wish the map of Florida was Kelly Green -- this fuchsia/chili pepper red color scheme is getting old....... and very flamable
I meant to say it does not fizzle out. sorry
Quoting surfmom:
I wish the map of Florida was Kelly Green -- this fuchsia/chili pepper red color scheme is getting old....... and very flamable

Yeah, it is not any better on the east coast Surfmom.
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