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Is this the end of Chris?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006

A hurricane hunter aircraft found a flight level wind of only 29 knots this morning. Thus Chris has been officially downgraded to a tropical depression. You can see in the visible floater loop that Chris is pretty much devoid of any thunderstorm development and you can also see the northeasterly shear that has torn Chris apart.
The system remains between two upper-level low pressure systems and the shear is not expected to relax. The official forecast has Chris regaining tropical storm status, but if that strong wind shear continues, this will not happen. If Chris makes it to the Florida straits, it may have a chance of intensification as it meets the favorable environment in the Gulf of Mexico. Then again, all it needs is for the shear to relax, like it seemed it got a a bit of time yesterday afternoon, and it may regain the tropical storm status that it once had. There may be a pocket of low shear to the storm's north so keep a wandering eye on that.

The high pressure ridge over the eastern United States will keep Chris on a general west-northwestern course over the next few days. The official track has it scraping northern Cuba Saturday night/Sunday morning.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

there's convection developing
1st Looks like the end to me...
Anything other then chris out there that we need to look at?
This season is indeed going to be an interesting one to follow.
Looks like a wave right now on Vis. to me. Chris might be trying to move its center north by splitting alittle bit and reforming. He is fighting for survival. Agree or disagree?
Joe Bastardi's video says if Chris survives, it has a good chance of being a Cat 1 near Brownsville, TX in 5 days

I'm not convinced, looking at this satellite loop, that Chris even has a closed circulation anymore.

I say its game, set, match. Done. Waiting on Debbie in a week or so.

if he goes much further north he will be in very hostile territory dont wish harm on anyone but looks like cuba is his best bet
It looks to me like the shear from the Upper Low to its East is starting to weaken, but it is now moving due West towards Cuba, so just when the upper levels finally get favorable, it'll get shredded over Cuba.

Just my uneducated guess.
This is a new update with all the newest data included

Click the image to go to hurricane warning.

Chris is still fighting to live. I have made a complete update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 12:45 PM EST aboout Chris. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of Chris. Feel free to discuss Chris on my blog.
Would everyone be quiet about Chris being finished in 24 hours. Leave the intensity forcating to the people who actually have college degrees in meteorology, like the NHC or TWC.
lol- to fight you must have desire. to have desire you must be able to think. Is TD "Chris" going to survive... still a chance, but not favorable. Mark me down as yes but not even close to what was predicted. I haven't yet figured out how much time the system's remnants may have in the favorable gulf conditions before landfall. Any thoughts on redevelopment time?
Looks to me like things are gonna stay calm for awhile. Although there appears to be some good looking waves coming off of Africa the mid Atlantic doesn't look too promising for development.
Whoa there freak!!.....part of the fun for many people here is to try to out predict the NHC.....any harm?...any foul?..not really...and it makes for some funny reading.....and if they blog..and you want to comment on their predictions..that should be fine also....heck..some actually study before they predict something and you can learn from them...

Thats assuming you think the weather channel does any real work to begin with.
oh..and thanks for your post..it was so much fun saying...whoa there freak...had to do it again
Would everyone be quiet about Chris being finished in 24 hours. Leave the intensity forcating to the people who actually have college degrees in meteorology, like the NHC or TWC.

This blog doesn't require a met degree, and it is understood that a posters forecasts aren't official.

If you read the forecast discussion, you will notice that the official forecast sometimes doesn't exactly match what the forecaster thinks will happen. The discussion today suggests that Chris probably dissipates, however, the discussion also notes, that if Chris doesn't dissipate, conditions in the Gulf would be favorable for strengthening, so as a course of least regret, the forecast is for Chris not to dissipate, even though it probably does, but at a strength less than the strong Cat 1/almost Cat 2 suggested by the 6Z GFDL at landfall in Mexico.
i dont agree with the intensity of the gfdl but i do with the track
also, there are several people on here with met degrees

Steve Lyons predicted Chris would become a depression while everyone else, including ppl in this blog were saying there was no way that would happen.
so they say
I mean he predicted 99l would become a depression
I thinks it is actually a good thing in the long run, it avoids confusion, but I think its pretty obvious that while Dr. Lyons explains and elaborates on things, the TWC forecasts match exactly the NHC forecast.

But TWC sometimes puts attractive woman in rain-slickers in the field in advance of storms, and that is a great public service.

Even AccuWeather, which does make its own forecasts, always throws in boilerplate about following all watches and warning from NHC.
23, are u lurking? out of curisoity i had asked earlier if there was a chance that the ull over central fla could spin down once over gom?
Dr Master's Thanks for the update. Hope it is the last on for Chris!
I like the forecast discussions, and Stewart and Franklin write discussions that really explain what they are thinking.

That is how I came to discover the official NHC forecast is often a compromise, between a course of least regret and what the forecaster really thinks will happen.

No takers on my mutterings about the Bay of Campeche? It looks juicy. The departing L into Texas seems to have left a little swirl behind...nothing? I'm just taking a stab here but I think it's at least as watchable as the storm formerly known as Chris... whose demise seems to be proceding as predicted...

Even if some of Chris' leftovers limp into the gulf, how come they won't get sucked to the north by that *spooky* ULL which is only now managing to move west? How is it they are expected to boogie straight west to Texas? I'm curious about the mechanism for that course. Thanks.
Also, the start of circulation in the off-Africa action? Looks like a barrel-roll now but I think it could right itself.
There is a very real possibility that our little TD will take a more north of west track today sometime. It would not surprise me to also see TS Chris again either. The ULL is moving more north of west than expected.
I am not a met and you should always heed "official" forecasts and tracks.
Dr. Lyons says he tends to accept Bill Grays forcast more than that of the NHC.

i know why they do it

if you announce chris is dead...day after day...one day..you'll be right....
I think the BOC looks juicy as well....much jucier than "the TS formerly known as Chris".
rand......ok..not a met...yankee maybe?
ricderr....Yep, Yankee fan!
ricderr...Are you at home? I've been having DSL problems here.
To quote Rummy from yesterday, I have to start with this quote: "My goodness."

We're now dealing with TD 'Chris' and I'm convinced it will struggle to maintain that status for the next 36 hours or so. We'll see periods of flare-up followed by shear blowing the storm apart. Do not expect any major changes during the next 36 hours or so other than the possibility of 'Chris' being downgraded further... Therefore, will take a break for the weekend and come back Sunday night or Monday morning to watch it further (provided there is an "it" to watch).

Once 'Chris' or his reminants enter the Gulf, there is a decent chance of redevelopment but this is too far off at this point to be concerned about. FL folks, I'd say you can breathe again as it looks like any impact will be minimal.

Catch everyone Sunday (unless something big changes)...
Lil' bit o' convection flaring up on the south side, or so it seems.
rand..you swine..as a bay area boy...went to the first oakland a's game in 69...i hate..and hate isn't a strong enough word...the yankees...how many a's players has georgie boy bought....scum bags the lot of them...lol...how's florida today?
Everyone..thi storm is toast. Stop saying that you think you see convection reforming. There are pockets of convection all over the ocean. Chris is nothing.
Oh, and the ever-optimistic CMC is predicting a monster storm rolling off Africa in the next 72 hours.

Chris is feeling like 'the, uh, storm that got away!'
kap nothing wrong with them thinking what they think just like you just did
I'm gonna call it - laugh and cuss, but here it is - Chris is NO^T blowing apart, but rather there is convection beginning to cover the coc - moreover, he is nearly far enough west of the ull to his ne to develop - he will now begin pulling moisture in from the ull to his ne as the ull kicks off small spots of convection - Chris will be a tightly wound TS by 8:00 pm est - now.....laugh away
"flight level wind of only 29 knots" - What does that translate to at the surface?
Everyone...ENJOY the peaceful weekend now while we all have a chance to! Unfortunately the time will come to soon for "the cone of doom"!! T.G.I.F.!!!
Buck: even though I am not at all a fan of Brutus and his minions, I could not agree more with you, everyone needs to get over it and have a good weekend.
Guy...approx 32mph
23kts i think guygee
The Keys had better not take their eyes off Chris. Even though the NW movement is not classified as a change in direction, Chris could potentially move north of west putting Key West or even SW FL in the path.

Stay informed.
kap333: Dude, I think it's time to up your meds. Relaaaax. :)
Convection is working its way to the center but not covering the center. But you can also clearly see the shear from the north hampering the system. If Chris can create more distance between himself and the ULL to the northeast then we could be talking about something tonight.
Chris is a girl's name...haven't you noticed what a fighter she is?
LOL TEX!!! We will pay you a visit this year,so get your horns ready! LOL! Stay cool everyone in all this horrible heat! 108 on the heat inded here already! Whew! HOT!
Posted By: kap333 at 5:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
Everyone..thi storm is toast. Stop saying that you think you see convection reforming. There are pockets of convection all over the ocean. Chris is nothing.

Kap..... like somebody else asked yesterday..... would you bet "your life" on it????

didnt think so! thats why the people who may be in the path of this storm continue to monitor it....cause they don't want to lose property or life..... not to mention, you can only learn about tropical weather by watching and discussing it....

this is afterall, a TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG!!!
nope....still in san diego....hard at work.....actually i have finished two reports.....this afternoon..i head to oak harbor, washington..then monday..hopefully i can get across the puget sound and see a sub or two...monday evening to dc...then wednesday or thursday..home to the admiral......i've never once had a problem with dsl...bellosouth has been good to me...knock on wood
Buck: actually I'm a misplaced Illini near Houston, c'mon down here and COOL OFF, it's only 92! lol
aj...Chris is a guys name this year. LOL!
ok the convection of the wave in the central atlantic seems to be holding on and persistent. look at the wave at 35W, and 12N...does ayone have any thoughts??

LMAO TEX!!! Good to see the BIG TEN is all over! Know how you feel, as I am in SC. You know I will never live down Woody Hays from here! LOL! Yes that was for all of you Clemson fans........
Surface winds would be 80% of the flight level I believe.
Take care everyone, lunchtime here, chill out this weekend, bye
Thank you buckeyefan1 and will40.

I will still keep an eye on Chris until the last NHC advisory,but things are looking better for now.

(I hope this is understood from now on for most of the people here...of course everyone should keep abreast of the NHC and local NWS statements and advisories...we are always on the edge of our seats to get the latest news).
Is it just me or does it feel like we've been talking about Chris, 99L or whatever for the last six weeks?? It has been tiring....
12:45pmEDT - Tropical Depression Chris, very disorganize......

1:00pmAST - A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure located SE of the Cape verde Islands has become better organize and upper level winds have become somewhat more favourable for additional development as the wave moves WNW over the next few days.......However development is not expected until Sun. 6th August 2006

I've noticed this year and last that these persistant, low level lows just HANG ON through the worst conditions and become storms. It makes me wonder if some unknown factor creates and maintains these circulations.
You got it GUY!! Keep one eye on the lookout, but the other one is for having fun while we have a chance to!
The one coming off Africa looks impressive...
thanks for the pic of it.
Don't mean to alarm but in my blog I do rasie the interesting question of the series of events with Chris and its similarities with The Bloody Beetch of NOLA aka Katrina.
Caffinehog...that was brought up on our message board this morning. I have been looking for reasons for this, and so far the only thing that I can come up with is the fact that conditions are "neutral". No LaNina or ElNino. If anyone else has any information on this, please speak up as inquiring minds want to know!! Thanks!
Hi Orion!! Going to check out your blog! Good to see you! :-D
scottie...i was here last year..but only as a lurker....not sure that makes me official....they said i had to post to get a badge
Not trying to be funny or sarcastic but being serious. I've noticed reading this blog that so many people get so upset when someone says Chris is dead or on his way to bein there but why? Why are some people trying to hold onto Chris so badly? I'm not making a judgement on if he's dyingor still has a chance but all I've seen online says tis is his last hoorah.I am just curious and wondering thats all. They say if you love something let it go.... (ya'll know the rest)
I think there are many unknown factors...
That would explaine all the disagreement in here!
However, with all the new tools, radar, sats, computer models, not to mention all the curious eyes and minds, hopefully we will better understand these storms in the future.

If we keep an open mind, muzzle the egos and continue to learn!
Neither La Nina or El Nino is expected to affect the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

If El Nino was to affect the season, wind shear would be high all across the basin. The lastest wind shear maps shows 0-10knots from the islands to Africa.

Now if La Nina was to affect this season, we would of have intense hurricanes by now...and more name storms.......

And the ENSO is expected to nuetral until spring 2007
there's a new advisory up
LOOKS LIKE the gfdl and the gfs moved more north this morning
..no major changes to strength or direction...better conditions forecasted about 100 miles west of the current position..status quo for now
any1 notice that there are little spots of convection developing all around the storm
LMAO GulfScotsman!! That was toooo funny!
buckeye: Not really funny.
Looks like the high is building which will prevent Chris from moving north.
88. IKE
GulfScotsman I see you're still giving us a frequent update with blow by blow descriptions of prior storms and how they were down for the count, but not out.

Christopher is headed right for eastern Cuba...Guatanamo bay country...to cruise by the captured...head to Havana to check on Fidel and his "in-charge" brother.

Keep us updated Scotsman and sip on that scotch!
..looks carefully @ the goes-12 Infrared 1 km view & sees no one scared in S. Florida..Zooms over to Pat Obriens Bar in da French Quarter And sees Cat-2 Hurricane being sipped by his cousin..LOL..Arrrrrgh!..
Not funny.
being mindful of scaring anyone, this was posted @ hurricanewarning1 "Chris is located at 21.3 N and 71.6 W or about 45 miles of WSW of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 13 mph but, jogged NW early this morning. Chris was downgraded to a depression earlier due to lack of convection and only a 29 kt flight wind but, convection has redeveloped." what id on't know is what time this appeared, i know it wasn't there @ 10 last time i looked. i also noted other sites speaking to the north jog jo
Chris bores me now...
the track the nhc made is exactly what i think will happen.... mayb like 20 miles north though
Has anyone noticed the track of this persistent little devil is right out into the middle of the steaming GOM????
It was only a jog, but for the life of me, I think it's anyones best guess as to where the damn COC is. Each update switches between WNW and W. Crap shoot if you ask me.
amazinwxman, I'd let it go if I really thought it was gone. I do that all day.
IS there a low over Florida right now ? Link
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 5:54 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
any1 notice that there are little spots of convection developing all around the storm

Yes, that is a new development, some convection on the west side now. The convection looks misaligned to the south of where I think the surface center is located.
amazn...i think one of the reasons..is that...chris isn't dead...it's a td..and even the nhc is forecasting it to strengthen once again to a ts...to forget about it..leaves people succeptable (nahh..not gonna spell check it) to being unprepared...let me give you a case in point...i'm a bay area boy..i used to believe...earthquakes can kill you but the weather won't..now..on the ocean....there isn't anyone that plays it safer than me..but the first time my wife and i vacationed in florida...was in 99...on our way to see her father near key west...we stopped first on hutchinson island in jensen beach for a week to visit friends staying in our motorhome in a mobile home park...ts irene came by in the middle of the night,traveling up from the keys...i had been fishing on lake O..knew nothing about it..and when i came across the causeway to the island..i saw all these cars heading in the other direction...had dinner with my wife..and as the night progressed it got windy..it wasn't until the news that we knew that irene was here to visit..at this point...we knew we couldn't drive across in the motorhome and had to stay put..although the wind wasn't near hurricane force...it was enough that at times..we thought the motorhome was going to tip over..the next morning...the park was trashed..people just hadn't been prepared...i won't let that happen to me again...so....i can see where pople can get their dander up over this chris is dead barrage..now to say...chris is dying..and explaining why you feel so..that's someones interpretaion of science and i respect that..
How much longer before Chris gets over the gulf stream?
They said they think it will become a tropical storm again. They are not giving much information really. I think it will redevelope again and by the time they can give out warnings it will be too late and the lights will be out.
Antivanity: That low's been spinning over Florida all morning.
I think they are upset that people speak with such certainty on the demise of Chris.
The attitude should be, anything is possible, keep an open mind and keep an eye on this thing until it has completely dissapeared.
What is the point of jumping on the Chris is dead bandwagon.
I'm sorry Chicklit, it wasn't meant in a mean way. If Chris does come close to FL., it will be nothing more than a good rain maker that is desperately needed! I do believe that everyone needs to continue to watch Chris for now, but at this moment he is not a threat.
Is the COC north of the recent convection? Or is the NHC going by the convection as the COC? It's hard to make out, but to me it looks like the COC broke away and is north of the convection. Thoughts??
Ormond I so agree with you I mean people can and should be free to disagree yes. Btit's more then disagreement in this blog. People have nasty attitudes and big egos and how they speak to each other in this blog it's crazy in a bad way. Everybody want to be right and prove others wrong there are too man chiefs and no indians in here.
Hey Scotsman,
Has anyone collected on that bottle of Scotch yet???
I'm still lookin' for the photo...
There are very few in here that just want to beat their chest because their almighty model got it right for three straight days. Yes, the attitude can get chippy in here, but what do you expect when you get a few jackballs who continually run their mouths?
Is it STILL scotch? I thought we were going to just fill up an entire bar? Man...one little meeting and miss everything!
..never does the get ready thing until..a threat passes 25 n here in New Orleans..Remembers that in the case of a threat from a Hurricane coming from the Southeast of us..things become time critical...the folks south of Metro area ..have to get out first..Some earlier than others now that we have many residents in FEMA travel trailers.But by no means ..people have to decide for themselves when to go.The earlier the better in the case of cat-3 or greater.No one should ever lose their lives from lack of warning.So choose to ignore good heeded advice or dont own a Weatheralert radio.
As we on the louisiana coast found out last year, it ain't over til its over...
and I am sitting in it... sunny skies surrounded by thick clouds and a breeze with a few gust here and there. So far not much rain.
Here goes a 2nd time....

Anyone have thoughts on the COC location?
Yeah wxman,
If you try to out-guess mother nature she will always get the best of you!
Instead, we should be marvelling at her beauty and power and try to understand her enough to know when to get out of her way!!!
GulfScotsman - I am looking on this blog for someone who said "National Hurricane Center are realllylly STUPID." Don't see it, although some guy yesterday (just one person) called them BAFOONS.
I see that GS but the problem is that people really trust the weather channels as far as channel 10 Don and channe 4 etc... and when they say we have nothing to worry about they stop watching the system. Hurricanes cost money to prepare and some wait till last minute so they don't have to spend the extra money. Thats what happened with Katrina when it went through south florida, they said we would get nothing so noone worried about it and then guess what woke up and all hell broke lose.

What are the steering currents going to be when or if Chris makes it into the GOM?

I hope someone will answer, it gets rather disappointing when your posts are ignored.
..has been tracking Chris in da visible realtime data..seems to b moving last 2 hrs around 275 to 280 @ 12,,,,
123. melly
I don't come here often, but i am always amazed at the hostility, and language used on this site.Such intelligent people I thought. It seems like if you can't see the other person's face ."No holds barred" And they wonder wht there is war in a (Man's World)...

And for my last little bit to make my blood pressure go down ( I live in south Florida, Lake Worth to be exact) "There is no such thing as a "MINIMAL HURRICANE" .I have been hearing that this whole week, and even after Minimal Hurricane Wilma caused me so much grief and damage last year... Ok, I feel better.
Melly- Don't be fooled. We are intelligent people. It's the select handfull of bozos that drop in here that we have to scream at once in a while until they scramola.
nash28 i can only guess that the nhc 2 pm is as close as we can get to the coc. i am not very good at this, but when i look at ir/sat pix i don't get anywhere close to that they say are lat/long so am no help on this, maybe someone with better tools can help us answer that? jo
melly: Take a chill pill or a belt of scotch, dearie. Some people just like to talk tough. And yes, there is war in this world and hurricanes...flak jackets and storm shutters.
128. melly
Just on this page Nash, have read, Baffons, Idiots, Babbons, bozos, stupid,

Yes Nash, Intelligence
You people that like to complain about our rhetoric, how about you throwing in a forecast once in a while. We might appreciate your weather thoughts.
131. BOBA
Chris could re-generate into a sizable storm OR could meander around the GOM for a few days playing havoc with the comodities markets. Gulfscotsman makes a valid point about that fact. Look at the track of Katrina last year. We went home Friday with a ho hum, nothing to worry about, and by Sunday it was Oh Shizzle.
....sees da forum SSts rising rapidly...kinda creepy..LOL
Thanks for the input Hobe. I have been plotting it as best I can, but it is very difficult to find the center when there barely is one left. May not seem like much, but if it seperated from the rest of the circulation and is further north than the visible convection, that changes the whole ballgame.
S--- happens; and when it stops happening, you know where you are...
GOM is quite a bit cooler this year compared to last...
melly - No way Wilma was a "minimal" hurricane over Florida. Here is what the the NHC said in their post-season report:

..."Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October. Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida."


hi ihave27windows i don't think it is a question of being ignored, i think we are all trying to get thru about 6 hours at a time! be patient and read the blog when you can, USUALLY all my questions get answered sooner or later, and sometimes i don't even have to ask, someone else does or it comes out in a routine discussion from one of these great mets just a matter of being there when it happens! jo
138. melly
I come here as a Lay person...I come here because i have been through 3 hurricanes in the last 3 years.i come here because I search every site to see what damage nature will deal me. That's why i come. Not to fight. (armpits are clean as a whistle)

And I'll take a Bud Select
Just because we have used some colorful words or euphamisms to describe some folks doesn't mean we are all a bunch of butt scratching rubes from Busted Whistle Tennessee or anything.

Geez, this isn't a Harvard Scholar blog.
Just watching for the coc of Chris on the visible loop, it looks to me like the coc got covered over by that last little bit of convection on the last frame - but I could be a couple hundred miles off.
Mama thinks Gulfscotman is ok...
..remebers that when the power went out @ 0515 on Aug 29th..We went from being the Jetsons to the Flintsones in 4 hours..storm center was 75 miles sesse of me and from then on thru noon I had to rely on my eyes for tracking the center in..was in western eyewall from 0500am to 1:30 pm..was one wild & wooly ride..but when we got to the breech @ the 17th St. Canal around 6pm Mon..whoa!..I said to my dog & neighbor ..Man ..we can get in here & go to Mobile!.....
145. melly
X-Files.One of my all time favorite shows.I loved it in the begiining.Then got to deep
Yeah Gulf, Now "Brownie" is raking it in with his new book and is hot on the lecture circuit.
nash28, and therein lies my poking around to the other sites, while i can't say anything definitive from my untrained eyes, the north thing looks like it is going on for a while now and been seeing other sites "casually" mentioning it jo
how come I can not get the 18:15 Infered Satalite
LOL Gulf!!! Thanks for the humor man:-)
Thank you all who forecasted.

24hr(5pm EDT,Aug 4) 21.4N, 72.4W, 30kts
48hr(5pm EDT,Aug 5) 21.7N, 76.5W, 35knts
72hr(5pm EDT,Aug 6) 22.6N, 81.0W, 40kts

Thank you all for forecasting and Good Luck,
For those who missed it earlier,

This is a new update with all the newest data included

Click the image to go to hurricane warning.

Chris is still fighting to live. I have made a complete update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 12:45 PM EST aboout Chris. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of Chris. Feel free to discuss Chris on my blog.
Butt scratching rubes.....I almost choked on my lunch.

Best laugh I have had today. Thanks :D
153. melly
My ex husband was an Air Force weather observer many years ago.He tried to explain things to me, but I couldn't grasp it all. But I do know some of the clouds. It must be my Dyslexia....5 out of 4 people have it
hey all, new to homestead fl and new to weather and bloggin all together but I can't stop reading this blog!! Had to get in the mix. Lots of great links on here. My favorite is Ramsdis so far. Been checking it constantly, looks like llc is trying to reform or is moved to north?? I'm not an expert, someone take a look.
I know Hobie. I am going crosseyed over here trying to find a coc. If the damn thing had made hurricane status at least we'd have an eye as a point of reference. Now it looks like an egg left out in the sun for 12hrs.
GulfScotsman, I'm still on the bandwagon with you and ST. Should we start passing round the special Cool-Aid now? :D

Chris is pulling a Travolta and "Staying Alive"
158. melly
GulfScotsman.My family is from Edinbourgh..I grew up there until 6th grade

nash, the center seems just nw of the convection....
160. IKE
GulfScvotsman said....cheers.... never panic.... TRUST NO ONE.........

Not even that bottle of scotch....my mother...our maker??????????????
Gulf- You and I need to get together and have a few beers man.
My guess is the center is just under the NW tip of the convection
thx thelmores. . . looking for coc myself not llc, sorry. Still trying to learn the lingo.
scottie...i spent an exhaustive 10 minute search looking for it....it aint to be found....now..for the important part....i've noticed...you get all the ladies..now..not that i could have one..the admiral has very direct orders concerning me and other vessels...but..i think..i'm gonna start using the same brand of aftershave as yourself..or maybe.i should try this......
Thanks txweather! Working to make blogging fun and educational.

Wow, it looks like I am way out on the tail of the distribution ;)
167. IKE
The center is just under the northern tip of that convection that's getting sheared
Thundercloud - that's what I thought as well - just got covered over in the last frame or two.
melly and homegirl, nice to see see ya'll.....

i can't stop reading this blog either! LOL
Cheers...never panic...trust no one...

ok womens....start flocking
blblblblblblblb (sound of bottle tipping)
If that's the case, then they a bit far south on their track here. Interesting.
174. melly
Thanks thelmores....Nice welcome. Question for you all...Do I need to logout each time? Does it hurt if I stay logged on all of the time?
I definately think the shear will keep chris a depression or small ts for the next 24 hours, lots of storms firing bc over warm shallow water now?
Fairly recent QuickSCAT of Chris.
It is Friday; I'm forgiving myself. I even plan a round of golf for later this afternoon.
Meanwhile...Chris is in Intensive Care, getting I.V.'d with same stuff Andrew and Katrina had, may make it yet and head toward recovery in Gulf Central. Shear!!! Where's the Shear???
178. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 1:35 PM CDT on August 04, 2006.
If that's the case, then they a bit far south on their track here. Interesting.

On the floater 1 visible...put the tropical forecast points on and the COC is just left of the "L". It's going where the NHC has forecasted.
Funny, someone claiming to be a Scot that can't spell Edinburgh.
180. melly
I know this isn't weather related, But i am watching TV. Here is my opinion.The most irritating person on TV is "Rachel Ray"
While the convection is laid up in the west wing, the coc has decided to go north to the dialysis wing.
Skye - Thanks for the information and keeping on topic. Interesting that the strongest winds are still over Puerto Rico. Closer to the center, on the NE side, strongest winds shown are 25 kts or less.
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 2:09 PM EDT on August 04, 2006.
no .. the scotch is still on the table for a photo of ugly little skinny naked ANDREW on Aug 20 - 1992

Hi GScot, I am sure someone that knows what they are doing can go into some files and find this picture. I'm at work now and it would take me forever to dig for it. Perhaps that can be a project this afternoon. I know WU wasn't here then, most of us didn't have computers then either, I got thru Andrew watching TV for a week. And it did blow up so quickly most people were not really prepared. We were not at my house; lucky it went south of us. (by prepared I mean boarded windows,all else was done but there was no boards to even buy when it got really bad quickly).

I think WU formed in the mid 90's, I started looking at it in the late 90's. but Dr Master's blog is only little over a year old (April 2005 I think) so none of us were really blogging until last summer.

Sure hope someone find that pictures for you!

184. melly
That was me ihave.I never could spell Edinbourgh and i grew up there
185. IKE
melly...you don't have to log in and out each time. Just stay logged in.
melly: What ever happend to peace and love?
Rowl! Hiss!
I know this isn't weather related, But i am watching TV. Here is my opinion.The most irritating person on TV is "Rachel Ray"

Maybe so, but oh so nice to watch ;)
188. melly
Chicklit.You mean my signature sign out & goodbye?
melly, see no reason to log out, unless you have somebody else in your house who would use your wunderground account.

no problems just staying logged on.... it probably is just a cookie that recognizes you when you go to the WU site....

homegirl, shear has definately been the ruler this year...... that could change though..... ;)
New vortex message just in, but did anybody notice that even when Chris was just a low cloud swirl this morning, it still was warm core?

URNT12 KNHC 041128
A. 04/11:14:20Z
B. 21 deg 08 min N
070 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1543 m
D. 25 kt
E. 1 deg 077 nm
F. 100 deg 024 kt
G. 001 deg 077 nm
H. 1012 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 24
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NE QUAD 10:46:00 Z

192. melly
Cajun.I used to like to look at Tyler Florence.He has been eating way to much of Paula Deen's food
Surface winds down to 28mph. Not looking too good for Chris.
is there anything else out there in the atlantic?
Ok, so question, The official track is showing the storm heading into Brownsville area. National Weather service in San Antonio has been talking about numerous tropical waves heading northwest into our area from the south. If that's the case, wouldn't the storm head more northwesterly once it gets closer to the Texas coast with the upper air patterns the way they are?
196. IKE
EdMahmoud...that's the vortex from this morning..

You been sippin on GulfScotsman's scotch???
While the convection is laid up in the west wing, the coc has decided to go north to the dialysis wing.
-- Okay Nash, that's two good laughs!
(Scotsman with a lady on each knee, tips back his Jack Daniels, ready for nap since he'll be up all night watching Storm Stories.
Ike.... i think Ed realizes that..... he said "this morning" in his post.....
200. melly
I love Storm Stories.Last night they had the Coast Guard swimmers.So tough training
I'll just jump out there and say I' ready to see one in the gulf. Yup...call me crazy. I want to experience one for myself. My area is way past due for a direct hit, and the longer it takes for us to get hit, the more dangerous it becomes...People get complacent, think it won't happen to them etc. I'm not asking for a CAT 5...Hell no...but it may happen, and the longer it takes to get hit, the more complacency develops. Complacency kills. bottom line. So I' cheering Chris on, and hope it comes this way for a middle TX coast wake up call. Not to mention we need the rain.
melly if I had Paula Dean cooking for me, I'd be huge too :D She is possibly the nicest person on TV.

Chris takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'.
ok so now what do I win cuz I found some early shots of Andrew here are someLink
Convection Continues to Build

Convection is still building we have convection over the coc and more continues to develop this will probably be a TS next advisory
Chicklit.You mean my signature sign out & goodbye?
No; just trying to raise your sense of humor.
206. melly
txwxnut.I would have traded you anytime these last 2 years here in south Florida
2:15pmEDT - Tropical Depression Chris's circulation has become much less defined.

amazinwxman- You can change the text of the link by changing the word link to what you want it to be

>linkWhat you want<
209. melly
I'm fine Chicklit.Thanks.I guess I have been here when a few people get very nasty
anything else to watch for?
The coc is covered and that is why it is less defined in my opinion which will cause strengthening
weather- dont think its loosing it. just cant see the llc like we did earlier. its starting to wrap denser convection over its center and will probably cover it trying to strenghen.
I'll just jump out there and say I' ready to see one in the gulf. Yup...call me crazy. I want to experience one for myself.

I'm thinking of reporting txwxnut as obscene.
Would someone please text message to coc and have him raise his hand so we can see him. Thanks.
I'll just jump out there and say I' ready to see one in the gulf. Yup...call me crazy. I want to experience one for myse

Take my word for it, no you don't.
I will try lol
217. KRL
I'll just jump out there and say I' ready to see one in the gulf. Yup...call me crazy. I want to experience one for myself. My area is way past due for a direct hit, and the longer it takes for us to get hit, the more dangerous it becomes...People get complacent, think it won't happen to them etc. I'm not asking for a CAT 5...Hell no...but it may happen, and the longer it takes to get hit, the more complacency develops. Complacency kills. bottom line. So I' cheering Chris on, and hope it comes this way for a middle TX coast wake up call. Not to mention we need the rain.

LOL, trust me on this cause we got our real experience last year, Hurricanes are not fun in any way, shape or form.

They were no where near as frightening as the 6.9 '94 Northridge quake I experienced, but the sound of that ferocious wind constant pounding like a train is still scary. You feel like at any moment the windows are going to blow out. And losing power, cable tv, your phone lines, and the Internet, even when you have a generator for some power is a pain in the butt to deal with for an extended period of time.
last frame of infra loop you can see its "eye" just got covered up. so maybe shear is relaxing, thats what the maps are sayig -10 in that area
Convection is on the increase but i'm refering to his central structure
That was the morning vortex message I copies- the new one is 1011 mb and 36 knots.
Hey guygee, looks like he's covered his center again, but with that cover your face cause your gonna get shoved around look.

I put a link in my blog to the NWS surge potential maps from Volusia south to Martin County. Check it out if ya hadn't seen it. You'd leave for a cat 5 surge right?
listen this blog is designed for ppl who are crazy aout hurricanes and includes ppl who chase them so plz if u dun like wat they say then get off but dun flag sumone as obscene cuz the want to go throught the experience of one of the earth's greatest wonders
Crap.... I just went completely void of thought!!! I hate that. Ugh.....
224. melly
txwxnut....I was home all by myself all 3 storms.....Frances last nearly 24 hours. scared the whole time...Jeanne wasn't as bad...very windy, but not too awful scary...Wilma in 2005 just about did me in.I remember hearing loud booming noises all through the house. I kept thinking that any minute the roof be torn off and then what would I do until the storm was over.It was very unpleasant. But the worst thing I have been through was when I was a 14 year old girl growing up in Xenia Ohio. Just fresh from Scotland & not knowing about tornados. April 3rd. 1974. 3:40 pm.....I was in one of the worst tornados every to hit the usa. Now that was bad. So txwxnut.You may have all of mt storm experiences for free.
225. melly
nash, I do that all of the time since I hit 40ish
MELLY!! ME TOO!! LOL!! Where in Xenia did you live! Small world!!
227. melly
buckeye.I lived in Arrowhead on Nebraska Drive.And you?
That moment in time will stand alone....along with the landfall of HUGO for me. That was my first hurricane, and believe me I will never ride one like that out again!!
229. melly
Where did you live Buckeye?
ARROWHEAD?!?!??! Really? I was just around the corner from the school!! We were almost neighbors!!
231. melly
Buckeye.I remember Hugo also.My ex was one time station at Myrtle Beach AFB.....We drove up there through Charlston, McClellandville, Georgetown
Oh yes, just in case anyone doubts it, I am a big fan of weatherguy03.
SanAntonioGuy I wouldn't worry very much about official track right now.

Many things could change in 24-48 hours. Sure keep half an eye on Chris. But there are way to many if's, maybe's and we shall see's, to get through before Texas is to really be a concern in my mind.Just my opinion and I am a novice.

Better to see what your local officials are saying and NHC than too created media hype.
warren ohio buckeye, melly
235. melly
Were you on Sioux Drive, or near it??
Do you remember the "old" spooky house that never did fall? I don't remember the street it was on, but we all called it the haunted house. We used to ride our bikes there until the tornado came through, then we knew it was haunted!
237. melly
Where are you now Buckeye???
I took an interest in Hurricanes 2 years ago before the season even started (I love stormy weather). I started watching radar and reading a lot of info on Hurricanes. Then what do ya know? We have a very active season followed by another extremely active season. I live in Ohio and I am hooked on BIG HURRICANES. I guess I became interested at the perfect time. I feel badly for people who are affected by them but that does not stop me from being extremely entertained by them. The power they have is huge and therefore my interest is huge.

I know there are people here who do not say they love these things and maybe are afraid to say so because they will get flamed by someone for doing so. I don't care if someone doesn't like the fact I like to see these things from the safety I have up here in Ohio. With all that said I hope that if there is a Hurricane this year that everyone in it's path stays safe.
twnut where are you? and I really hope you are kidding when asking for a direct hit from a cat 5. get real. no crazy is more like it
Yes 2 houses from the corner. Wiped out the street in front and behind us, but not our corner.
Robin...YOU TOO!?!?!
GS -

Haven't been able to find the photo (yet) but the NHC Synoptic History of Andrew sounds a bit like our boy in the caribbean.

242. melly
Buckeye.I was in Xenia in May.....I had to have all of my old favorites......

Cassanos Pizza.... and a beer at Nicks on North detroit st
Columbia, SC now. Grandparents were in Manning during Hugo. SCARY!!!!
grew up in warren ohio. do you know warren harding panthers? well they are warren harding raiders now. great football team. has been #1 many times. clarett's high school.
LMAO!! Nicks is still there?!??! I haven't been to Xenia in a few years, but still go home to West Carrollton to visit family.
Searching like mad for a picture of the "sheared Andrew"...I want the prize! Unfortunately, Andrew occurred before the wonderful blogospheric Age of Disminformation, so no luck so far;(

But here is a a nice big picture of Andrew's track.
Robin...COOL!! This is really NEAT!! Strolling down memory lane!!
OMG I am from hilliard oh. Buckeyes are #1 in the preseason coaches poll:) USA TODAY
249. melly
buckeye.Yep.Nick's is still there, and they expanded....They have a whole new room for the dinner crowd that don't want to sit in the bar area.
Crap.... I just went completely void of thought!!! I hate that. Ugh.....

That happens to me when the pressure drops.
All I can say is the Bengals are my team. Born and raised in and near Cincinnati, Ohio
Thx Skye! - I'll drop by and take a look.
253. melly
Beerman.I bet you remember Kenny Anderson & Chris what's his name
Oh Geesh... Too many Buckeyes... I feel like I'm out numbered. Ugh. :)
Collinsworth if I spelled that right. I have been a true Bengal fan since around 97 though. Madden got me hooked on Football before that I just cared about the reds.
Skye - I would leave for a Cat 3 coming from the Atlantic side, if I was sure it was coming in close to the south...
This time last year, Tropical Storm Harvey was active in th Atlantic Basin.

URNT12 KNHC 041824
A. 04/18:08:00Z
B. 21 deg 04 min N
072 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1529 m
D. 25 kt
E. 26 deg 055 nm
F. 119 deg 036 kt
G. 029 deg 062 nm
H. 1011 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1525 m
K. 14 C/ NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.03 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 04
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 17:48:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 7 / 9NM

The letter D is the wind speed

The letter H is the pressure - Down 1mb-Strengthening
259. melly
Also Beerman.When I see your name.It reminds me of the department store chain called Elder Beerman in Dayton. I don't know if they are still around
so whats chris doing now
some small convection now on what looks like the west side of the coc
Showing signs of Strengthening

Convection Building on all sides

mb dropped 1
not sure if I have seen one in awhile but I do remember that store.

That Harvey looked pretty organized compared to what we have seen of chris
does anyone think TD Chris will be a TS in 37 min
265. melly
You all take care and have a great Friday evening.I have had fun chatting with you all. Bye
maybe in 37 hours
does anyone think TD Chris will be a TS in 37 min

Yes he will reurn
GulfScotsMan - No matter how hard I try, I like a nice scotch, I cannot find sattelite views of Andrew before August 23.
When we say shear rules for 2006, we almost include 2005.

TD 09, (with later became Irene), TD 19 and Td 19, were all affected by shear.

Now last year, the five intense major hurricanes formed or reached thier peak in the Gulf, NW caribbean......

So far this, no storm was able to enter the gulf......but alberto and it went from 45 to 70mph.....and that was in June.....

Now, it only takes one storm wondering into the gulf, to overshadow, Alberto, Beryl and Chris, all together....

It only takes one, to put 2006 in the record books.....
change almost to also*
No clue this thing has been somewhat a rollercoaster ride. I just think like most do that if this thing makes it into the gulf that could get scary.
so TD 19 formed twice???
If you look at the wv loop, there's a lot moving down over Chris from the ne still. I think a lot of the convection is some interaction between Chris and the ULL. If that's true, it would only serve to dissipate Chris that much more. Now somebody who actually knows something can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think its more bad news for Chris.
change TD 19 to Td 22
Hello- thought I would stop in to see whats going on today, glad to see the Buckeyes are out...pre-season #1 GO BUCKS...I'll check in later to see whats happening with Chris
Weather456....Afternoon! Chris has caused one fatality already. He fried my modem!
Had to install a new one this afternoon.
You won't want to hear me say this but I have not totally written Chris off as an Atlantic problem yet. What do you think?
the wv loop makes it look like the ull is eating Chris for dinner - or maybe a late afternoon snack. Again, I could be misinterpreting what I'm seeing.
is it still moving west or wnw?
Hi weather456
Those are beautiful satelite images from Tropical storm Harvey.
Really like the second one, like a circular motion with a paint brush
canes - I gotta agree about the wv loop - shows convection being pushed to the sw
gameday forecast

No....this is not a plug!! Just wanted everyone to know that now I don't have to move my first helments! LOL!
Looks like a tropical wave to me. Still think it might redevelope later.
Non-weather related but critically important-

Coaches poll has Ohio State #1, Texas #2, setting up September meeting of football powerhouses in Austin

One the one had, Texas will either start a true freshman or redshirt freshman at QB with only 1 games experience, but on the other hand, the last time Texas was ranked #2 and played #1, last January, history was made in Pasadena!

There were lots and lots of people on here yesterday who had written Chris off as of yesterday aftertoon, saying he had no shot at comming back. But just as Chris has done so many times, he battled through the hard time and reformed some good convection and became Chris again last night.

If the shear dies down a bit which I think it will, Chris will be back again, easy.
Afternoon 456...
Looks like you are having another beautiful day in the islands!!
Hi, rand, I'll post a graphic of what i can expect from Chris....

JustSouthofEquator, thanks....

That is what i live for, beauty and movement of hurricanes and storms....not for them to hit land....

Also, if you look at the ir loop, it looks like Chris is getting decapitated again - especially on that last frame(except there's not much to decapitate).
i can not tell if its going west or just north of west anyone can help me out and let me know
Game 2 will be a GOOD one once again!!
Yes, its one beautiful day down here....I'm almost Glad the tropics are quiet....
Canesinlowplaces -

Yes, Chris is caught between two annoying ULLs and they're beating up on Chris like two older sisters might do to a younger male sibling. However, those Ulls are also bringing with them something Chris has lacked until now - water. I think that's a major reason why Chris has been looking better so far today.
Crisis - about an hour ago it was right on track w/ the nhc forecast as Ike pointed out - the last couple of frames, its hard to tell, but if you turn on the trop pts, you can follow it until the last frame or two.
GulfScotsman...Yeah, I'm not done with Chris yet. Maybe make that TS tonight. Things are different now than yesterday or even early this AM.
Hey Randrewl funny thing, the NHC has the path in the gulf pretty much what I guessed the other night LOL
Interesting how the tops of the storms on the west side of the circulation are starting to blow off towards the NW, while on the east side they are blowing off towards the SW. Is Chris finding the col in between the two ULLs?

Scottsman this may help
I dunno Cane to me it looks slightly north from the points but the last frame your right tis so hard to tell
Thanks highndry - so if he can keep the circulation in tact while they pass over, he could emerge a lot better - if it don't kill you, it'll make you stronger.
Howdy Fshhead. Yes they do! Good call. I'm thinking all day we'll see even a more northern shift in that track. Maybe at 5.
I say what they get is dependant on where the storm goes across cuba
It may not cross Cuba.
LOL & HOWDY back at ya.......
thats what i mean. if it goes across cuba not to bad for them, it tracks close hmmmmm better watch out cause then its getting gulfstream water then loop current water. This would be really bad bad scenario for them, to say the least
No Hurricanes are wanted. NO MORE HURRICANES!!!!!
Canes -

something like that yes. This system's been battling massive shear all the way along. I myself counted it out on more than one occasion so I've learned that it isn't going to just roll over and die because of a little wind - now if it hits Cuba that's a different story. The core is still extant and can grab moisture, which thanks to those ULLs there now IS, and if you compare the way it looked yesterday with the way it looks today you can see that it's starting to look a lot better today.
I hope it tracks right down the center of cuba, better scenario for everyone them included
i agree Randrewl the storm is slightly north of the NHC track in my opinion
Fshhead...Let's hope the Cuba track pans out. Good for everyone...even the Cubans.
Crisis57...Yes it is. Might do some more of that....have to see.

Ohmigod, not 1 to 2 inches of rain!!!!
Posted By: Randrewl at 3:52 PM AST on August 04, 2006.
Fshhead...Let's hope the Cuba track pans out. Good for everyone...even the Cubans
Thats what i am saying
I'm about to get hammered here. Severe storm warning issued. Be back after this passes.
Oh boy...here we go again...
the 1 thing that has me puzzled..... they have it as a storm all the way across the gulf. Hmmmmm ALOT of warm water there. Are they saying this cause its going to keep following the ULL?
yup its cloudy over here as well in Miami i've noticed that this storm does not want to listen to the NHC from the get go it has always been slightly north of the track just that last frame its hard to tell if its going west now?
The diffrent colors are the diffrent tracks it can take.....the most likely is yellow track. The red track will kill it....the gree track will make it become trouble......

Wind shear and water vapor imagery shows that Chris will enter a highly favourable area soon...

hmmm like the red line track for sure better for everyone
the gree should be green*
I like the green one. Personally
the mess in the gulf off of the ULL. its sitting right over fla.
Scotsman, Rum of course!
hello everyone...i am somewhat new to this and had a quick question..anyone know what is going on off the coast of africa?

pretty much where i guessed it to go.Mex. tex border.
fshhead - so if the ull is sitting there, wouldn't that mean there's probably more shear?
Posted By: nattat at 8:01 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
hello everyone...i am somewhat new to this and had a quick question..anyone know what is going on off the coast of africa?
canes I think so. Now there is one close to the rear of Chris. I still think he is toast but, thats my opinion
The models are starting to move a little farther N since the last time I looked.
That LBAR model scares me beyond all reason
Call me absolutely out of my gourd. (wouldn't be the first time) I don't buy into the Cuba thing at all right now. Gonna shift more north. How far? Don't know yet.
yea the lbar would be really bad scenario for sure. Not to mention uh-hum how the gas prices will skyrocket!!! grrrr
thanks fsshead :)
kewl Nattat. just go to NHC satellites go to bottom of page & they got the african loops there
yeah that lbar model scares the crap out of me if it took that path i would be on the ne quadrant
Randrewl hmmmmmmm I don't know about that. remember the models have been showing pretty good consistency in past couple of days.
I'm stickin with my old reliable GFDL (for now LMAO)
Fshhead...You're probably right about the models. I'm just thinking conditions have changed faster than they can keep up today.
A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure SE of the Cape Verde Islands has change little in organization between 1700UTC and 1900UTC. Shear is high but has been lessening somewhat during the day. Further development is expected and I give it 10% chance of becoming TD 04 in the next 7days.

There is also a Central Atlantic Wave (CATL) wave which a little more organized but is under the same conditions but still has a chance to become a TD

yes Fishhead me too been with it since yesterday but too tell the truth i was wrong before cuz i thought sure he would go much father south than he is now
I do not like the Lbar path at all
also Randrewl I think the new I guess its a ULL is building behind it also, I think this also might nudge him more westerly
ridesthestorms...Don't worry about the LBAR track.
yea highly doubtful it will take the LBAR track
Stormthug, you must be pretty close to me because if LBAR happens, I'm in the NE quadrant. (central La).
hmmmmmm starting to look for loop current links
Tropical Depression 08W has form in the WPAC....
the lbar track seems unlikely but u never know
yeah pirate im in se la
Most of the models keep Chris's circulation north of Cuba, keep in mind the huge amount of forecaset track uncertainties through time.Link
Randrewl where are the loop current graphics, do you have any sites???
the new official track should be comin out in about 30 minutes its gonna be interestin to see where they take it.
LBAR also scares this southern louisianian (Lafayette)
Loop Models.Link
CajunOil...Don't be concerned with the LBAR track. Wait for the 5pm advisory.
thanx for the links guys!!!!!!!!!!
Link heres one fssh
oh man this does not look good.if it goes north of cuba. I t will cross the loop a few times. FUEL FOR THE FIRE!!!
Tracks look like they are all shifting a bit East......last night it was all West to Mexico,
It's so close to Cuba it's hard to say. I say if it actually stays just north this thing has it's own plans for sure lol some evil plans indeed. It honestly looks like it could hit Cuba I don't know.
whew I will tell you this it sure is alot better tracking a storm when it is not headed for you LOL
I third the cuba track
unless chris gets a bit west of the ull to his east, he's gonna have trouble - it just keeps blowing the tops away
swla here
Hey Gulf,
Still looking for an earlier sat. on Andy but did find this......

Storm Andy gets raggedy

Posted August 19 1992

(Published Aug. 19, 1992) Tropical Storm Andrew on Tuesday started looking more like Raggedy Andy than a potential hurricane.

High-level winds on Tuesday sheared off some of the top of Andrew, leaving the storm ragged around the edges, said Max Mayfield, a specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables.

The storm`s unusually fast movement west-northwest at 18 mph contributed to the shearing effect, Mayfield said.

A storm becomes a hurricane when winds hit 74 mph. As of 11 p.m. on Tuesday, Andrew`s maximum winds were near 50 mph.

The storm`s center was at 16.6 degrees north latitude, 54.4 degrees west longitude, about 460 miles east of the Lesser Antilles."

Sound familiar?

Still trying to beat the 20th pic.

No need for Scotch anywho, I'll stick to my Molson's. But I'll keep looking.

I can't see how it is going to miss Cuba, either. That TUTT cell riding over the NE side is powerful.
If Chris does make landfall in Cuba, it is going to have to get quite far inland to weaken. Remember Beryl, although it's center was inland, it was only 50 miles or so from the GOM and maintained it's organization rather well.
lol are we seriously still going 8 pages on this? a storm u cant even see on Water Vapor Loop or IR?

whats up with the Cen Atlantic wave, any model runs on that badboy yet?
Scotsman, Send a big bottle, I live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Thanks...photojens.
The models here http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2006&storm=03, show Chris surviving even if he does cross Cuba.

Or am I reading them wrong?
NHC says status quo for now...Pressure down to 1011.
If you compare tracks, intensities and upper-level conditions, these references to Andrew are just comical. Not unless the point is that a tropical cyclone can weaken and then rapidly intensify under the right conditions. I think we all saw that last year, no need to go back to 1992 to find examples. Does anyone seriously think this is going to be another Andrew for South Florida?
guygee....Right. Andrew is no comparison.
I will stop watching chris, for a a while, until it gathers itself (if), and focus on a central atlantic wave that has been getting better organize all day....
At "ground zero", not much going on today other than you can see the winds twist around following the storm.

Conditions at Turks & Caicos August 4, hour by hour -scroll down

I dont see why their is any comparision to Andrew at all. He was way further north & alot healthier right now
chris has been dead for 2 days people - its nothing more than a summer thunderstorm for anyone
Weather456...Excellent....I'm not ready to go that far out again. Keep us informed ok?
anyone having trouble with the GOES loops not being very up to date?
Tshizz: I agree, keep an eye on it for now, and that's it
Posted By: NellyStormGeeks at 8:36 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
the last few frames look like it is being pushed hard right to Cuba!

I agree with that, I think it's Cuba here he comes LOL

that is what i observed on visible earlier today.........
Gotta go peeps, Randrewl I will see you later bro' PEACE

Couldn't agree more, but it's a great way to kill time and learn a little about the past until something happens.

Above all, NeverPanic
old rel. GFDL is that not the model that forcasted chris to turn sw into haiti a few days ago.also a turn to cuba would be to the left not right and no this is not ment to be a political joke.
east atlantic

now heres a mess of stuff that might have something develop down the road
those 30-36kt winds to the ne of coc are probably from the ull
I'll return in a couple of days to see how and if Chris emerges in the GOM.

No one ever bothers to answer my questions anyway. Seems as if the only way anyone pays attention is if you try to start an argument.

I really wanted to learn something here, what a shame.

Still, hope everyone has a great weekend.
NeverPanic - I'll give you that!
Zaphod Beeblebrox for President!

Pressure has dropped does anyone that is saying to write Chis off have any reasoning for this

There is just one little fact needs to be stated again. ULL's actually can help a system develop further and assist in "venting" them. Not saying this is happening but they are helpful to development given the right circumstances.
I do not think these are the right circumstances

Posted By: Randrewl at 8:51 PM GMT There is just one little fact needs to be stated again. ULL's actually can help a system develop further and assist in "venting"

Posted By: MidwestBeerman at 7:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.

All I can say is the Bengals are my team. Born and raised in and near Cincinnati, Ohio

Well you'll be better than my Browns for this year. But I'm sure your ownership will screw things up for you in the near future :)
butt on butt on apply directly to your butthead darn i hate that headson commercial lol
KatyTexasNewbee...don't have time to watch...fill me in later ok? Be back
"Chris is drivin' me nuts, hope it just dies over Cuba"

Well Said, Mike Naso.

Thanks for the link, KatyTexasNewbee.
will40 - LOL! I still don't even know what that product is supposed to be.
me either Guy i guess it is jus sumfin for the forehead LMAO
mikeohio, are you a browns fan. oh my. i have been my entire 47 years. although i am a houstonian now. kardiac kids. lol
robinvtx - We must have been almost neighbors growing up. Howland Township ring a bell?
whats the link for the new models
I think Mike said it well, guygee...

I strongly suspect you're wrong-

That looks like an outflow boundary/arc cloud pushing out away from the 'center' of Chris.

Its over, Chris is pushing up daisies and pining for the fjords.

We'll know by tomorrow evening, Sunday afternoon at the latest.
Gulf, just got back and don't know if anyone found that picture, but thought I would just draw with a charcoal pencil some tiny swirls in the ocean with just a bit of water and try to fake my way to that bottle and case of wine...what do you think? Could it work!
awesome link-thanks
Also look it has a 15% chance after 72 hours that it could be a Hurricane
Katy thanks for reminding me...I usually will never miss Mike Naso's updates.
Tannim - That was a very good report by Mike Naso. Keep watching is the phrase of the day.
That's all I have been preaching. Not as pointedly as GulfScot, but I like to err on the sided of caution when people are involved. But the not so fun part of his report talks about the lack of shear for the next wave. Talk about keeping an eye open.
Afternoon all

Had some nasty cloud to ground lightening. Looks like this is the case for many areas in the extereme SE.

So Chris is hangin on, but if he does not start heading WNW soon he will be in Cuba.

430. sigh
Posted By: GulfScotsman

>I have no fear of being wrong...

Good thing, that.

>The immedeate threat is to Cuba and South Florida and the Keys.

Threat of what? A pleasant breeze? A refreshing shower?
Is it raining at your house, cause it sure is raining at mine Link


65 dBZ coming over my house, I'm near where Interstate 10 crosses into Alabama, but I'm about 4 miles east of state line. Not often I get dressed for storms, this made me put my shoes on, looking for hook echo's.
Looked out into my front yard and there are four peacock's, never seen that in 10 years of living hear. They didn't show up on radar, not sure if it's a sign, no pink elephants though.
Once this gets in the Gulf its a whole new ballgame.....because of thisand more moist air.
good afternoon everyone you guys need to take a look at the coast of africa for a sec its impressive
Hey Gulfscotsman, I am a Scotsman too!!!!!!!

Where did you get that info on the comming of the favorable conditions?
I have been for the last 3 hours and it gets more impressive every time I look at it Mick Naso sais that he is expecting a "Significant storm"
when this come in to the gulf this thing will bomb out big time and may be be come a storng cat 4 with the hot sea temp and 2 eddys this will be a big one this is not done yet
437. amd
the circulation of the storm is starting to open up according to the nhc. In the next 12 hours, we will all know if Chris will have a chance to strengthen, or it will be already dead.
U have a GOOD LINK?? Please send it???

Posted By: mrpuertorico at 9:19 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
good afternoon everyone you guys need to take a look at the coast of africa for a sec its impressive



Still not saying anything about the storm off Africa
people you better pay attention to chris ove rthe weekend.chris will strengthen and become a tropical storm on sunday and a cat 1 on mondat and threaten the nw and northern gulf coasts...DONT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD CHRIS IS PLAYING POSSUM WITH US.....StormTop
guygee howland i remember. i was there in june -relatives gave my son a grad party. 1st stop sunrise pizza. you go back much?
ST that might just be true...
Who killed the Margins? Please Spam-mark the Margin Killer.
new blog up
Africa Infered

This storm is just as organized if not more organized then Chris
stormtop i will be watching just like i have been these past 10 days, glad i have this blog. thanks for all the great info and learning i am doing.
robinvtx - That is where I grew up, in a neighborhood near the corner of East Market and North Road. I think the pizza place was called "Ray's Pizza" back when I was in high school.
robinvtx - Wait, Sunrise Pizza, near downtown. That was a landmark, we used to go there all the time.
Thank you Katy for that link! That is very good information!

Is it Developing

to me it looks as if the storm is trying to develop convection all agond the eye near the eye cac someone help me
I think that no matter where the coc is it does have convection at least aroun 3/4 of the eye and is looking heathyer this time than 2 hours ago
The center of the surface circulation on the visible loop looks to be very close to Great Inagua island.
If it is at the red dot it has convection all the way around the coc

if it is in the open area to the north it has convection 3/4 of the way around it and it has high to middle level clouds throughout the coc which is still heathy
Might be easier if I link to a map: here.
DestinJeff - Yes, I think you have it right.
Well it doesnt matter where the coc is it still is

1.better organized
2.convection on all sides of the coc
3.moving into a more favorable enviroment
4.some deep convection
5.lower sheer
Maybe not zero but low
Here we go again

Convection is almost forming a ring

but some of it looks as if it is getting sheered again but I may be incorrect
Chris is still an impressive TD that will eventually enter the GOM where conditions are better for development. Chris ain't dead yet.
I do not think that Chris will ever die it has whithstood the challenges of sheer and now the only thing left to conqure is land and the land may come in the form of cuba
Chris now has convection from the se to the e the long way with only a slive of no convection around the coc
the coc in my opinion is right in the center of the circle
That LBAR model scares me beyond all reason

LOL . . . you should be reassured that LBAR is showing that . . . even more reason to believe Chris will go the other way! I am still waiting to see the first time the LBAR was on target . . .

Anyhoo, weather here in Nassau is sunny, light winds and scattered clouds. A lovely day, in fact. I looked at the Nassau radar and it showed a light line of showers over Acklins. These seemed to be from Chris rather than the ULL due to the shape and direction of movement.

I know we aren't "supposed" to talk about last year's storms, but the area over the Great Bahama Bank and Old Bahama Channel, north of Cuba and south of the Bahamas, is where Rita started to get her act together last year. Granted the conditions aren't as favorable for Chris, but there does seem to be some possibility for restrengthening if the centre of circulation stays over these waters. They are shallow, but warm.
Posted By: CajunOil at 8:06 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
That LBAR model scares me beyond all reason

Not just you, Cajunoil. Better yet? I have a kid on dock at toe of the boot until next week. oh well, we'll do what we have to do. :)cajungranny
Looking at the floater link is helping me understand why Chris is having such a hard time. That ULL to the NE is really pressing it, isn't it? The other low is lifting out across FL, but that's not help to this system if it isn't moving away from the more easterly one . . .