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Is the U.S. climate getting more extreme?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on January 24, 2011

Is the world's climate getting more extreme, with hotter heat waves, colder cold events, heavier rains, and more extreme droughts? After seeing the unprecedented weather events of 2010 and the equally impressive floods of 2011, it's an important question to be asking. Unfortunately, it's an almost impossible question to answer objectively, because we simply don't have good enough long-term global weather records to do so. However, in the U.S., we do have good enough records to attempt this, and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has developed a Climate Extremes Index to do so. For 2010, the Climate Extremes Index (CEI) showed that the U.S. had a near-average area experiencing extreme weather conditions. Averaged over decades-long time scales, the U.S. climate has been getting more extreme since 1970, but has not changed significantly over a century-long time scale. The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is based upon three parameters:

1) Monthly maximum and minimum temperature
2) Daily precipitation
3) Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

The temperature data is taken from 1100 stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), a network of stations that have a long period of record, with little missing data. The temperature data is corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, as well as for station and instrument changes. The precipitation data is taken from 1300 National Weather Service Cooperative stations. The Climate Extremes Index defines "much above normal" as the highest 10% of data, "much below normal" as the lowest 10%, and is the average of these five quantities:

1) The sum of: (a) the percentage of the United States with monthly maximum temperatures much below normal, and (b), the percentage of the United States with monthly maximum temperatures much above normal.

2) The sum of: (a) the percentage of the United States with monthly minimum temperatures much below normal, and (b), the percentage of the United States with monthly minimum temperatures much above normal.

3) The sum of: (a) the percentage of the United States in severe drought each month (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and (b), the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

4) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

5) The sum of: (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation, and (b), percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI), updated through 2010, shows that U.S. climate has generally been getting more extreme since the early 1970s, but that the 2010 climate was just slightly more extreme than average. On average since 1910, 21% of the U.S. has seen extreme conditions in a given year (thick black line), and in 2010 this number was about 24%. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

As summarized by Gleason et al. (2008), the National Climatic Data Center concludes that based on the Climate Extremes Index, the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation generally increased since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in the summer. No trend in extremes were noted for winter. The annual CEI index plot averaged for all five temperature and precipitation indices (Figure 1) showed that four of the ten most extreme years on record occurred since 1996. However, some very extreme years also occurred in the 1910s through 1950s, in association with widespread extreme drought and above-average temperatures. The most extreme year in U.S. history was 1998, with 1934 a close second. The year 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history, with a record 78% of the U.S. experiencing minimum temperatures much above normal. That year also had a record 23% of the U.S. with much greater than normal precipitation from extreme 1-day precipitation events. The 1934 extreme in CEI was due in large part because of the most widespread drought of the century--a full 52% of the U.S. was affected by severe or extreme drought conditions. That year also saw a record 64% of the U.S. with much above normal maximum temperatures.

Maximum and minimum temperatures
It is very interesting to look at the five separate indices that go into the Climate Extremes Index. Today I'll look at temperature, and focus on drought and precipitation in my next post. The portion of the U.S. experiencing month-long maximum or minimum temperatures either much above normal or much below normal has been about 10% over the past century (black lines in Figures 2 and 3.) However, over the past decade, about 20% of the U.S. has experienced monthly maximum temperatures much above normal, and less than 5% has experienced maximum temperatures much cooler than normal. Minimum temperatures show a similar behavior, but have increased more than the maximums (Figure 3). Climate models minimum temperatures should be rising faster than maximum temperatures if human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases are responsible for global warming, which is in line with what we are seeing in the U.S. using the CEI.

While there have been a few years (1921, 1934) when the portion of the U.S. experiencing much above normal maximum temperatures was greater than anything observed in the past decade, the sustained lack of maximum temperatures much below normal over the past decade is unique. The behavior of minimum temperatures over the past decade is clearly unprecedented--both in the lack of minimum temperatures much below normal, and in the abnormal portion of the U.S. with much above normal minimum temperatures. Remember that these data ARE corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, so we cannot blame increased urbanization for the increase in temperatures.


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for maximum temperature, updated through 2010, shows that about 10% of U.S. had maximum temperatures much warmer than average during 2010. This was right near the average from the past 100 years (thick black line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for minimum temperature, updated through 2010, shows that about 35% of U.S. had minimum temperatures much warmer than average during 2010. This was the 7th largest such area in the past 100 years. The mean area of the U.S. experiencing minimum temperatures much warmer than average over the past 100 years is about 10% (thick black line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll talk about how extremes of drought and precipitation have changed in the U.S. (I may talk instead about the developing winter storm for the Appalachians and Northeast coming Wednesday and Thursday this week, though.)

References
Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

The National Climatic Data Center has a more in-depth discussion of the Climate Extremes Index for the U.S. on a regional and seasonal basis during 2010. In some regions, such as the Southeast U.S., 2010 was a remarkably extreme year.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Another excellent and thought provoking article. Thanks!
Great report!
More things change, the more they stay the same
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks Jeff...good read. Appreciate your caveats too.
GFS has Snowstorm over TX to start February


Looking like a wild ride to start February somewhere out there. Buckle up folks, were going for a RIIIIIDE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like a wild ride to start February somewhere out there. Buckle up folks, were going for a RIIIIIDE


My goodness, I am seeing snow in the deep south?
I wouldn't put too much faith in that run. That was yesterday's 12Z run, today's is just starting to come out. And besides, the long-range GFS has been showing snow for Texas on and off for weeks now, which has not verified as of yet.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wouldn't put too much faith in that run. That was yesterday's 12Z run, today's is just starting to come out. And besides, the long-range GFS has been showing snow for Texas on and off for weeks now, which has not verified as of yet.


I know you're right...lol..just wishful thinking..do love snow :)
thanks for update doc

i'am afraid we are only just seeing the extreme side of the weather as we progress along

we have seen nothing yet
more extreme weather?

I blame it on the Ancient Aliens...


Here is your storm NE folks, get ready

Quoting NRAamy:
more extreme weather?

I blame it on the Ancient Aliens...


and they were purple aliens as well
that goes without saying.....
have you noticed that we see extreme maximum temperatures when the ancient aliens return to refuel their space craft every twenty to thirty years or so?

yes, that guy who wrote "Chariots of the Gods" mentioned that last week on The History Channel.....
Someone has to get the ancient aliens to go green on their space craft. All of the eons of them polluting our atmosphere is taking its toll. Maybe we should construct sad polar bear hieroglyphs in the face of mountains to get them the message.
why don't we send Al Gore into outer space to reason with them? that would solve two problems with one bloated politician!

Quoting Surfcropper:
Someone has to get the ancient aliens to go green on their space craft. All of the eons of them polluting our atmosphere is taking its toll. Maybe we should construct sad polar bear hieroglyphs in the face of mountains to get them the message.

Some will ignore the messages anyway.

24. MTWX
Need to tell those aliens to quit stealing our ozone!!!
000
FXUS62 KTBW 240754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
254 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR TODAY THE
FORECAST WILL BE FOR A QUIET DAY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
BACK AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL HELP TO FORCE RISING HEIGHT ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. SO A
WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT WITH LATE DAY INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. GUIDANCE WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AND SO WENT CLOSE
TO IT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT SHARPLY IN THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER
WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHEN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER
FLORIDA. LOW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS. THEN TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AS IT IS
FORCED BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST. WITH A STRONG LEAD
VORT MAX MOVING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THERE WILL BE A VERY HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
PUSH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY INTO THE MID 60S. PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
OVER THE AREA ARE 2SD ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH A
DEEP AND STRONG 500 MB LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS LATE TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED
SHEAR...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. THE 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. SO THIS EVENT APPEARS
PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA...AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE DAY.
TORNADO...STRAIGHT LINE WIND...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL
THREATS. WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-13C AT 500
MB...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTH...AND THIS INVERSION COULD LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT.


BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH COLD ADVECTION RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A WEAK MID SHORT WAVE AXIS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN US BY FRIDAY BUT BUT A LACK OF
SURFACE DYNAMICS WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION HELPING TO
MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AND 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM 2-6C. MAY SEE FROM
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THURS AND FRI MORNING
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN HELPING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS
LATE TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE AND ADVISORY CRITERIA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS HIGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RETURNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 55 75 59 / 5 10 60 70
FMY 72 58 78 64 / 5 10 40 60
GIF 68 53 78 59 / 5 10 60 70
SRQ 68 56 75 61 / 5 10 50 70
BKV 68 48 74 57 / 5 10 60 70
SPG 65 57 74 59 / 5 10 60 70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON


Finally getting some action back into Florida again! Lets just hope its not weather that gets anybody hurt!
To the uninformed, Al isnt a Politician anymore.

But he is still a US Army Veteran.

Quoting NRAamy:
more extreme weather?

I blame it on the Ancient Aliens...





I agree! The most likely cause would be the continuing effects of the massive amounts of flatulence they released into the atmosphere. Do to its foreign nature, I have evidence and graphs that prove it is warming the climate much more rapidly than human caused CO2 is.

In fact the impact on the atmosphere is at a yield of about 55% more at 3 PPM then human caused CO2 is.

Not only that, I have peer reviews from DR. John Doe, and Dr. Lady upperclass that prove how flatulence from ancient aliens could prove extremely dangerous for our planets future...

I will be releasing subsequent updates on this serious climate crisis in the near future.

Whatever the case, those who love to live on the side of anti-science will continue to be deniers, because anyone who disagrees with my theory is a denier of real science. How dare my knowledge of this subject be questioned...
jedkins- re post 25

my local NWS (KJAX) has been hem-hawin' over this...talkin about the negative tilt, low CAPE values, and low dewpoints during that time frame. THANK YOU for posting Tampa's discussion. It's really getting bad, our mets up here.

Had you not posted that, I never woulda looked at SPC. Thanks.
you're alright Jed.....

;)
Explosion kills 31 at Moscow airport
Published: Monday, January 24, 2011, 9:12 AM



A explosion ripped through the arrivals hall at Moscow's busiest airport on Monday, killing 31 people and wounding about 130, Health Ministry officials said.
moscow-airport.JPGPavel Golovkin, The Associated Press A general view of the Domodedovo airport is seen in Moscow, Russia, on Dec. 26. An explosion ripped through the arrivals hall at Moscow's busiest airport on Monday, killing travellers and wounding others, Health Ministry officials said. The state RIA Novosti said the explosion may have been caused by a suicide bomber.

The state RIA Novosti said the explosion may have been caused by a suicide bomber.

The Russkaya Sluzhba Novostei radio station cited a traveler, identified as Viktor, as saying he heard the bang outside the airport, where he was waiting for a car.

"There was an explosion, a bang. Then I saw a policeman covered in fragments of flesh and all bloody. He was shouting 'I've survived! I've survived!'"

Domodedovo is generally regarded as Moscow's most up-to-date airport, but its security procedures have been called into question.
Hey Levi, that first graph you showed must not have very high resolution, because December was very dry all across this area.

But most official and local rain gauges have recorded 4 to 8 inches of rain for January, and most fell in the last 2 weeks...

The system moving in tomorrow will be the strongest yet, and could even bring a tornado threat, and possibly another 2 to 4 inches of rain, which would be amazing for the dry season, but I'm not complaining! Lets just hope there won't be anyone hurt from severe weather. I don't think it will be like a spring outbreak in the plains or anything. But we can get some nasty little severe weather events in January and February here sometimes...



Whatever the case, thanks for the explanation about the change in rainfall likely being caused from the shift to NAO positive. That's what I suspected to be the cause of the more recent heavy rain pattern, but I wasn't really sure.

Lets hope this pattern continues! Less record cold and more rain to help the drought sounds good to me!
Patrap: Al is a navy veteran. I was doing gunfire support in that same area in '71. We were supporting the Swift boats. We buried our sonar dome in the mud and had to back out very carefully. Two miles inside Cambodian waters. (oops!). I don't agree with everything he says but I do respect his service. That was a rough corner of Nam!
Anyway, good morning to all from a recently reformed lurker. Weather in Houston is yucky, but not cold.
G'morn Hoot..

Thanx for your service as well.


When Gore graduated in 1969, his student deferment ended and he immediately became eligible for the military draft. His father, a vocal anti-Vietnam War critic, was facing a tough reelection fight in 1970.
Gore eventually decided that the best way he could contribute to the anti-war effort was to enlist in the Army,which would improve his father's reelection prospects.
Although nearly all of his Harvard classmates avoided the draft and service in Vietnam, Gore believed if he found a way around military service, he would be handing an issue to his father's Republican opponent.

According to Gore's Senate biography, "He appeared in uniform in his father's campaign commercials, one of which ended with his father advising: 'Son, always love your country. Regardless, Al senior lost his seat.

Gore has said that his other reason for enlisting was that he did not want someone with fewer options than he to go in his place.

Actor Tommy Lee Jones, a former college housemate, recalled Gore saying that "if he found a fancy way of not going, someone else would have to go in his place." His Harvard advisor, Richard Neustadt, also stated that Gore decided, "that he would have to go as an enlisted man because, he said, 'In Tennessee, that's what most people have to do.'" In addition, Michael Roche, Gore's editor for The Castle Courier, stated that "anybody who knew Al Gore in Vietnam knows he could have sat on his butt and he didn't.


After enlisting in August 1969, Gore returned to the anti-war Harvard campus in his military uniform to say goodbye to his adviser and was "jeered" at by students. He later said he was astonished by the "emotional field of negativity and disapproval and piercing glances that ... certainly felt like real hatred".

Gore had basic training at Fort Dix from August to October, and then was assigned to be a journalist at Fort Rucker, Alabama. In April 1970, he was "Soldier of the Month".


Gore with the 20th Engineer Brigade in Bien Hoa as a journalist with the paper, The Castle Courier.


Al and Tipper Gore's wedding day, May 19, 1970 at the Washington National Cathedral

Quoting aquak9:
jedkins- re post 25

my local NWS (KJAX) has been hem-hawin' over this...talkin about the negative tilt, low CAPE values, and low dewpoints during that time frame. THANK YOU for posting Tampa's discussion. It's really getting bad, our mets up here.

Had you not posted that, I never woulda looked at SPC. Thanks.


How weird! Well I don't know what they are smokin, cause forecasters here re basing on highly agreeing models and their consistent data.

Let met tell ya, this system will likely be very potent! Its probably not gonna be a widespread outbreak or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if several warnings do get issued, and several inches of rain falls in some spots before all is said and done.
OOps, my bad! I confused Al with John Kerry. Need to get another cup of coffee!
All my Marine friends assure me that the U.S.Navy is part of the Corps. So Semper Fi, Pat and thanks for your Veteren's Day posts. I read them with pleasure.
I am about to retire and hope to spend more time on WU.
Jeff~ Great blog. Thanks for including how the CEI is calculated.

Who could forget 1998 around here.. ECFL about burnt down.


Jedkins~ that set up looks somewhat favorable for an awakening of the I-4 tornado alley.
"Jedkin~ Agreed..theories will change.. This week the hot topic could be how much faster the oceans could rise than expected. Two new things out..

Climate change: Rising waters threaten North Carolina & national security

Must-read Hansen and Sato paper: We are at a climate tipping point that, once crossed, enables multi-meter sea level rise this century

Have you had college Chemistry for science majors yet? They wouldn't let me out of there til I knew what GHGs absorbed what wavelengths of IR photons & how long they lasted, the sorts of reactions to dismantle them, etc.. They are quite measurable & chemically explained. No big secret that WV is the most abundant GHG & without it our blue marble would be way too cold for us. I remember experiments..CO2 vs methane vs WV vs air vs vacuum in a double glass pane.. which heats up more & how much..use your volumes to workout nightmarish equations. That class started with some "deniers", didn't end with any. I was on a physics quest at the time. Does Met majors have to take the harder Chem for science majors?"

Hey SkyPony, yes unfortunately I do have to take some pretty serious chemistry, I need basic chem and 2 more chem classes after that require calculus to be completed. I have already completed the introductory class to chemistry, as well as the first calculus, this semester I am working on the harder stuff.

Honestly, I ended up finishing the last Chemistry course with an 85%, and I worked very hard to get that grade. I'm not sure why, but even though I'm pretty decent at math and I really love physics, Ive found I hate chemistry. For some reason the chemistry equations don't make any sense to me when the math is in chemistry form. My brain just doesn't work well with chemistry, just like some people just don't get how I love meteorology so darn much, lol.

Because I did work hard to earn that grade, I did learn quite a bit about the nature of gasses and how they interact though.

Ive yet to take the more difficult chemistry courses though, I'm not looking forward to them to say the least! lol

The only time I enjoyed chemistry at all was for the brief amount of time that we went over meteorology applications, which there weren't much of...
someone remind me, I rEALLY gotta start reading other discussions than my own locals. Even Melbourne raised an eyebrow, my mets still yawning.

No severe, no Lady Lake, I'll be happy.
Quoting Skyepony:
Jeff~ Great blog. Thanks for including how the CEI is calculated.

Who could forget 1998 around here.. ECFL about burnt down.


Jedkins~ that set up looks favorable for an awakening of the I-4 tornado alley.


Yeah it does...


I'm just being optimistic and hoping this system just outputs a lot of rain and and exciting lightning and gusty wind event. I'm hoping damaging and destructive weather will be at a minimum.

Our one saving grace may be the cold water temps that will create as surface inversion as the NWS has been saying, however the cold water temps seem to be no match when strong dynamics and a significant low level jet are in place.
Angola-

About 28 residences and a primary school were destroyed over the last weekend by the heavy rain that hit Ambriz district in northern Bengo Province. According to what Angop learnt, the rain also destroyed roads and other means of communication, a situation that hinders the inhabitants to go to agricultural fields. The affected people claimed for assistance of the local authorities in order to rebuild their houses.
From the blog post

"Unfortunately, it's an almost impossible question to answer objectively, because we simply don't have good enough long-term global weather records to do so"


But, you can absolutely say there is man-made global warming?
AMY!!!!!!
SPC AC 241724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN
GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN
STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA.

...FL...

WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM.
STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH
APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS


SQUAWK!!!!

:)
Aqua~ May it's south of their area of responsibility.

Jedkins~ The trend lately hasn't been for these to be all that severe. Did have that tornado on the 17th though. MLB NWS caution concerning the event seems sensible. Toward the east coast it may come over in the night or early morning.

NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK THAT YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS IN WORKING
ORDER. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALERT YOU OF AN APPROACHING
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...HAS SAVED LIVES.
ECFL hazerdous outlook

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LONG TRACK
TORNADOES. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

KELLY

Look out Florida...my local surf shop just reported a run on Reef flip-flops... Reed Timmer must be close by!

Shhhh... can you hear that?

Dominating-Dominating-Dominating-Dominating
oracle28: The long term record is in the rocks and ice cores. We are in a cool phase now, with the continents split by large oceans. Our warm phase is when the continents are together. We experience interglacial periods due to the orbital variations. The present inter glacial period starting about 9000 years ago is definately anomalous. We should be about 3 to 5 degrees cooler, and we should have a history of sinking sea levels. We have been reasonably constant. We need more research to know what is going on.
Interesting SPC says the outlook may have to be bumped up above slight risk... Model outputs do support moderate risk in Central Florida, so the SPC may upgrade to Moderate. But I agree, its safe to go on the conservative side for now. I'm sure the main reason they haven't upgraded to moderate risk yet is due to the fact the surface CAPE values are the one factor that aren't that impressive for widespread severe weather. That is due to coastal water temps being very cold which will advect a stable layer across the area. The hard call on this forecast is how much will that impact the forecast, or will dynamics overcome any effect from the shallow surface layer.

I would tend to believe the stable layer will lower the severe threat to a degree based on my observation of past severe weather events, but I do believe at least isolated tornados and damaging winds will materialize. Cold air aloft may support hail which is pretty rare in Florida, thanks to frequent arctic air masses cooling the upper layers.


What I'm most excited about with this system is the beneficial rains that it will likely bring. Conditions will support tropical cloud burst type rains, rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will likely be common in thunderstorm cores. Strong to severe cells could have even higher rain rates.
Quoting Skyepony:
Aqua~ May it's south of their area of responsibility.

Jedkins~ The trend lately hasn't been for these to be all that severe. Did have that tornado on the 17th though. MLB NWS caution concerning the event seems sensible. Toward the east coast it may come over in the night or early morning.

NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK THAT YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS IN WORKING
ORDER. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALERT YOU OF AN APPROACHING
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...HAS SAVED LIVES.



Keep in mind though, the last few systems were actually downplayed around here. The last few rain events not only brought more rain than predicted, but the last 2 events we had massive amounts of lighting and gusty winds of 45 mph, which weren't in the forecast. The forecast called mainly for half inch amounts and maybe a rumble of thunder.

Of course, I'm not criticizing forecasters, I myself was shocked by how impressive the thunderstorm activity was with the last couple events here.

I believe they are probably right on target with the forecast this time.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
326 am CST Monday Jan 24 2011


Synopsis...
high pressure off the East Coast...with a weaker high pressure
over Texas and Oklahoma. Surface low developing just off the Texas
coast near Brownsville...with an inverted trough to near Lake
Charles. Isentropic lift is inducing clouds across much of
Louisiana and the western Gulf of Mexico. Cloud cover making a
significant difference in temperatures across the area. Those
sites without clouds are seeing temperatures in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Areas with clouds are middle 40s to lower 50s.
&&


Short term...
most of the sensible weather issues will occur during the first 48
hours of the forecast. Low off the Texas coast will move
northeastward...and be centered off the Louisiana coast by midday
on Tuesday...then over eastern North Carolina Wednesday.
Significant strengthening of the low should hold off until it
reaches Georgia and the Carolinas.


As noted in the synopsis...isentropic lift has begun...and radar
echoes noted between Houston and Lake Charles. Lightning detected
over the last hour east of Corpus Christi. Rain will develop
eastward during the day...reaching our area by late afternoon.
With surface low remaining offshore...we will be on the stratiform
side of the precipitation shield for about 24 hours. Should see
some fairly steady rain...with current model indications of about
2 inches across most of the area. Mention of thunder will be
limited to offshore waters. Will be carrying categorical probability of precipitation
across most of the area tonight and Tuesday...with most
precipitation tapering off Tuesday evening. Wednesday should be
dry.


Tended toward a middle of the Road solution in the short
term...with a slight lean toward the GFS. 35
&&

Jedkins~ I'm so looking forward to the rain as well. Agreed it warrants the caution we may see a few long track tornadoes, damaging winds, hail & such but atleast today it doesn't look like it should be a wide spread devastating event.
NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


Quoting HOOTat:
oracle28: The long term record is in the rocks and ice cores. We are in a cool phase now, with the continents split by large oceans. Our warm phase is when the continents are together. We experience interglacial periods due to the orbital variations. The present inter glacial period starting about 9000 years ago is definately anomalous. We should be about 3 to 5 degrees cooler, and we should have a history of sinking sea levels. We have been reasonably constant. We need more research to know what is going on.


We know what is going on and why the current interglacial isn't doing what it should be doing. For one, there is an overwhelming body of evidence of major warming episodes in the past due to greenhouse gasses (which in turn have been known to be so based on basic high-school level physics for well over a century). Even the most extreme of those episodes, like the PETM, fall quite short of the current rate of CO2 emissions (and add methane emissions when the permafrost melt really gets going).

For example, see this paper, which explains just HOW the past climate changed and just why the climate is changing now (note - there is NO difference between natural and human-caused CO2 as far as the climate system is concerned):

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Here is one excerpt:

The strong global warming trend between 60 and 50 My ago was surely a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2, as the Indian plate subducted carbonate-rich ocean crust while traversing the Tethys Ocean. The magnitude of the CO2 source continued to increase until India crashed into Asia and began pushing up the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. Emissions from this tectonic source continue even today, but the magnitude of emissions began decreasing after the Indo-Asian collision and as a consequence the planet cooled. The climate variations between 30 and 15 million years ago, when the size of the Antarctic ice sheet fluctuated, may have been due to temporal variations of plate tectonics and outgassing rates (Patriat et al., 2008). Although many mechanisms probably contributed to climate change through the Cenozoic era, it is clear that CO2 change was the dominant cause of the early warming and the subsequent long-term cooling trend.


Of course, what we are doing right now exceeds those natural CO2 sources/sinks by about 20,000 times (the long-term trend in CO2 in recent geological history is about -0.0001 ppm per year, or a decrease of 1 ppm per 10,000 years; we are currently adding about 2 ppm per year - not including the half that goes into the oceans and other sinks).
Quoting Skyepony:
Jedkins~ I'm so looking forward to the rain as well. Agreed it warrants the caution we may see a few long track tornadoes, damaging winds, hail & such but atleast today it doesn't look like it should be a wide spread devastating event.


Agreed!

It seems like here in Pinellas County, that we tend to not get as much rain when it comes to seabreeze activity, but we seems to get the brunt of the rain with low pressure systems. I had 3.40 inches here with that low pressure system last week, hopefully we'll see more of that kind of rain total tomorrow!
CIMSS Sat blog has some good imiages of the extreme cold that Hit northern Midwest & Great Lakes ares.
Quoting FLdewey:
Look out Florida...my local surf shop just reported a run on Reef flip-flops... Reed Timmer must be close by!

Shhhh... can you hear that?

Dominating-Dominating-Dominating-Dominating



LOL I wouldn't be surprised if Reed is headed to Florida. If he did come here though, more than likely he's not gonna try and chase anything here. Dense forests, flat terrain, and almost always rain wrapped tornadoes due to very heavy HP super cells make Florida bad and dangerous place to chase tornadoes.

Tornadoes in this subtropical environment are known for doing weird things, like popping up then disappearing, than dropping back down in a new location.
Also of interest:

Science stunner: On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter

Paleoclimate data suggests CO2 "may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models"


See also:

Canada sees staggering mildness as planet’s high-pressure record is “obliterated”

The largest anomalies here exceed 21°C (37.8°F) above average, which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month.


That is what happens when the Arctic becomes ice free (fortunately only limited so far, like around Hudson Bay), and fits with this:

Arctic Climate May Be More Sensitive to Warming Than Thought, Says New Study

Led by the University of Colorado at Boulder, the international study indicated that while the mean annual temperature on Ellesmere Island in the High Arctic during the Pliocene Epoch 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago was about 34 degrees Fahrenheit, or 19 degrees Celsius, warmer than today, CO2 levels were only slightly higher than present.

"Our findings indicate that CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees F)," Ballantyne said. "As temperatures approach 0 degrees Celsius, it becomes exceedingly difficult to maintain permanent sea and glacial ice in the Arctic. Thus current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere of approximately 390 parts per million may be approaching a tipping point for irreversible ice-free conditions in the Arctic."
61. JRRP
Quoting Jedkins01:



LOL I wouldn't be surprised if Reed is headed to Florida. If he did come here though, more than likely he's not gonna try and chase anything here. Dense forests, flat terrain, and almost always rain wrapped tornadoes due to very heavy HP super cells make Florida bad and dangerous place to chase tornadoes.

Tornadoes in this subtropical environment are known for doing weird things, like popping up then disappearing, than dropping back down in a new location.


Yes I go L-O-N-G periods of time between seeing any discrete storms in Florida... but if you need squall line footage I'm your man (roll eyes) ;-)

I was hoping for a day free of "junkvection" but it's starting to look messy. We shall see.
Thanks Michael. I've spent 30 yrs in geoscience. My point was about having a good record about paleoclimate. We have from the rock records, good proxies for clamate, paleo biology, sea levels, etc. I agree that CO2 is a GHG, and that we are pushing that limit up. I am trying to avoid the POLITCAL part of the discussion(good luck there) and try to approach it from the science. The point about the present interglacial period is that the orbital variations affect the overall amount of energy and are major forcing agents. Caveat: my experience is in geophysics and geology, and I don't know as much of the atmospheric science. appreciate the info.
rainy in Houston.
"Well it's kind of hot and smoky
In this ante room to hell
And I won't make up a story
'Cause you know the truth too well
It's far too late to worry
That we never had a chance
And when the politicians get here
We will dance, dance dance
When the politicians get here
We will dance"

LOL


Here's a new site (the domain names were just registered yesterday) that I thought some of you might be interested in: IWantSomeProof.com.

IWantSomeProof.com

The site uses some advanced HTML and CSS, so it looks substantially better in the latest versions of Chrome or Firefox. It's still okay in Explorer; it just doesn't display as designed.
"If you'll be my Dixie Chicken...."
Quoting NRAamy:
"If you'll be my Dixie Chicken...."

That's definitely your song, Amy. LOL

Quoting HOOTat:
Thanks Michael. I've spent 30 yrs in geoscience. My point was about having a good record about paleoclimate. We have from the rock records, good proxies for clamate, paleo biology, sea levels, etc. I agree that CO2 is a GHG, and that we are pushing that limit up. I am trying to avoid the POLITCAL part of the discussion(good luck there) and try to approach it from the science. The point about the present interglacial period is that the orbital variations affect the overall amount of energy and are major forcing agents. Caveat: my experience is in geophysics and geology, and I don't know as much of the atmospheric science. appreciate the info.
rainy in Houston.


The reason why orbital variations have caused interglacials/glacials in the recent past is because a cooler climate is more sensitive to changes in forcings. One big reason is the ice-albedo feedback, since ice and snow reflect most of the sunlight while bare ground and open water absorb it. Orbital variations themselves are too small to really cause significant changes unless there is something to amplify them; assuming that everything is initially near equilibrium, a slight warming would result in ice melt and CO2 outgassing from the oceans, both of which would lead to further warming until a new equilibrium is reached (due to the positive feedbacks, the temperature rise is very rapid, while the decline is gradual).

Also of note is that currently, tilt (blue at the top) is decreasing while 65N summer insolation (black in the middle) is decreasing and aphelion occurs in July (image below), all of which point towards a cooler climate:





The perihelion and aphelion of the Earth

Currently, the annual perihelion happens at about 14 days after the winter solstice, thus making January 4 the average date of perihelion. The perihelion that currently occurs in early January places the Earth at a distance of about 91,402,500 miles (about 147,098,070 kilometers) from the sun, which can also be expressed as about 0.98329 astronomical units (AU). (The eccentricity of the orbit also varies slowly over many millennia.)

Likewise, the annual aphelion that currently occurs in early July happens about 14 days after the summer solstice. At this time, the distance of the aphelion is currently about 94,509,130 miles (about 152,097,700 kilometers), which can also be expressed as about 1.01671 AU.


(the significance of this is that cooler summers favor more snow and ice surviving until the next winter - it is cooler summers, not winters, which lead to an ice age; even with high snowfall in recent winters, spring and summer snowcover has still reached new record lows, like last June, when insolation is maximum due to the solstice and albedo has its maximum effect)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


We know what is going on and why the current interglacial isn't doing what it should be doing. For one, there is an overwhelming body of evidence of major warming episodes in the past due to greenhouse gasses (which in turn have been known to be so based on basic high-school level physics for well over a century). Even the most extreme of those episodes, like the PETM, fall quite short of the current rate of CO2 emissions (and add methane emissions when the permafrost melt really gets going).

For example, see this paper, which explains just HOW the past climate changed and just why the climate is changing now (note - there is NO difference between natural and human-caused CO2 as far as the climate system is concerned):

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Here is one excerpt:

The strong global warming trend between 60 and 50 My ago was surely a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2, as the Indian plate subducted carbonate-rich ocean crust while traversing the Tethys Ocean. The magnitude of the CO2 source continued to increase until India crashed into Asia and began pushing up the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. Emissions from this tectonic source continue even today, but the magnitude of emissions began decreasing after the Indo-Asian collision and as a consequence the planet cooled. The climate variations between 30 and 15 million years ago, when the size of the Antarctic ice sheet fluctuated, may have been due to temporal variations of plate tectonics and outgassing rates (Patriat et al., 2008). Although many mechanisms probably contributed to climate change through the Cenozoic era, it is clear that CO2 change was the dominant cause of the early warming and the subsequent long-term cooling trend.


Of course, what we are doing right now exceeds those natural CO2 sources/sinks by about 20,000 times (the long-term trend in CO2 in recent geological history is about -0.0001 ppm per year, or a decrease of 1 ppm per 10,000 years; we are currently adding about 2 ppm per year - not including the half that goes into the oceans and other sinks).


What's even more interesting than greenhouse gas concentrations is the actual net energy flux. I've been compiling a bunch of research to figure this out more accurately, but just including most forms of water (sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets, top/mid/deep ocean); we are currently gaining approximately 2.17575*10^21 Joules of energy per year. This is 400% of worldwide primary energy consumption; and does not include the mixing of melted ice with the ocean, the amount of energy transferred to water vapor, the energy absorbed by the ground and the energy transferred to dry air molecules. So taking these into consideration, the gain would be even larger. This warming has been occurring for a long time, it's just that most people think atmospheric temperatures depict climate change when in fact the lower atmosphere is dependent on the ocean (and the remaining surface ice).
An SPS was issued for the Tampa Bay Area

Of note is that global sea ice area is about to set a new absolute record minimum:


Global sea ice area


Also, lest the scaling they use fool you, there has been a definite (and statistically significant) decline in global ice area (and extent; click following image for more):

Quoting MichaelSTL:
Of note is that global sea ice area is about to set a new absolute record minimum:


Global sea ice area


since ice management took over less than 100 years ago...

pretty sure the Earth has seen periods where there was no sea ice whatsoever...we just weren't around to keep records of it.

Yearly Net Worldwide Ice Loss (Cubic Kilometers): Data from PIOMAS, GRACE, WGI, and some other sources.

2003: -1119
2004: -1177
2005: -825
2006: -1108
2007: -3031
2008: -250
2009: -1514
2010: -1902

Wilma:



Developing a rather compact eye recently as it tracks south of the latitude of Fiji. Definitely a SW component present and expected to hit New Zealand.



Anthony could potentially drive more moisture toward Queensland, though it could have dissipated by then.
pretty sure the Earth has seen periods where there was no sea ice whatsoever...we just weren't around to keep records of it.


the ancient aliens were.....
all hail the purple ancient aliens!
If I'm no mistaken(IINM?), when it was a lot warmer, the continents were all together. That's not going to happen for a long time. lol
maybe that's why the ancient aliens keep visiting us...to try to show us that sea ice comes and goes in cycles...like seasons to us but we just don't live as long as they do to notice it.
Quoting NRAamy:
pretty sure the Earth has seen periods where there was no sea ice whatsoever...we just weren't around to keep records of it.


the ancient aliens were.....

I wish you would refrain from blaming us for your planets problems. Your unpublished study; USAF Blue Book is filled with unfounded facts as well as your PICTO_documentaries ; The Blob and Alien and your document series Star Trek or Star Gate is purely fictional. We are not here, we do not make visits nor have we designed any facilities on your planet. We also can not control your weather. I hope our interpretations are understandable. WE ARE NOT HERE!
By Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack.com

LA NIÑA AND YOU

You may have read the headlines about how La Niña is to blame for the recent devastating floods in Australia and the cold and snow in parts of the eastern United States. Last year at this time, it was El Niño though it was about to fade and transition in to the current La Niña we are experiencing now. So what are El Niño and La Niña? The simple answer is this:

El Niño is the abnormal warming of the Equatorial Pacific. La Niña is the abnormal cooling of the Equatorial Pacific. What causes the two phenomenon? That is a story for another day as there are too many variables to go in to here. The main aspect of the two distinctly different anomalies is that one (El Niño) ADDS heat to the Pacific while the other (La Niña) takes that heat out. Remember, heat is energy and the less heat there is, the less energy there is. This change from the normal pattern throws a proverbial monkey wrench in to the global weather patterns.

Is this La Niña causing the cold and snow for the Southeast? Well, according to the NOAA La Niña site, a typical La Niña winter for the Southeast is characterized by warmer than normal temps. That certainly has not been the case this winter. However, another typical result of La Niña conditions is drought for portions of the Southeast and that is most definitely the case. In fact, Florida is especially dry right now even though a recent frontal passage did bring fairly widespread precipitation to the Sunshine State. Contrast this to last winter when a series of relentless winter storms came across the northern Gulf and dumped copious amounts of rain along the southern tier states- including a good deal of Florida. Then, it all came to an abrupt halt once the La Niña developed in the tropical Pacific. Experts on the subject point out that saying any one weather event cannot be pin-pointed to La Niña or El Niño but that the overall weather pattern can be changed, resulting in disruptive weather events over a period of time.

How long is the La Niña going to last and what about hurricane season? The most recent climate models from Australia and Europe suggest that the La Niña will slowly fade over the coming months to near neutral conditions by mid-summer or early fall. On the other hand, the U.S. generated Climate Forecast System is forecasting a continuation of the current La Niña through at least October. A La Niña pattern is usually associated with enhanced Atlantic hurricane activty due to the lower upper level wind shear values that often accompany the cold episodes of the Pacific. This was evident last season and likely contributed to the high numbers of hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. However, the steering patterns were such that ZERO of the ten hurricanes that formed hit the United States - a remarkable stroke of luck to be sure. As we know, Colorado State University is forecasting 17 named storms for the upcoming season and cites the lack of El Niño conditions as being partly responsible for the high numbers.

If we look closely at past La Niña events we might be able to detect a pattern and at least get an idea of what to expect this coming Atlantic hurricane season. Let's examine only the most recent La Niña episodes since they also correlate with the current warm phase of the Atlantic- which began in 1995.

1995/96 Fairly weak La Niña lasting from the summer of 1995 through early 1996. The La Niña faded to neutral conditions by the time hurricane season had arrived in 1996. In 1995, there were 19 named storms. Two hurricanes hit the United States that year: Erin and Opal. Neither formed from a long-track Cape Verde tropical wave. All of the true Cape Verde hurricanes of 1995 curved well east of the United States with the greatest impact being to the northeast Caribbean islands. In 1996, the La Niña faded to neutral conditions and we saw 13 named storms. That year, hurricanes Bertha and Fran made landfall along the North Carolina coast (Bertha also passed over Puerto Rico).

1998-2000 A strong La Niña set in after the record El Niño of 1997. This La Niña remained firmly in place for several years, reaching its peak at the end of 1999 and in to early 2000. This La Niña event was characterized by several hurricanes hitting the United States. In 1998, hurricane Bonnie made landfall in North Carolina while Earl struck the Florida panhandle. In late September of that year, powerful hurricane Georges marched across the Atlantic Basin and blasted the Greater Antilles, the Florida Keys, finally making landfall in Mississippi. In 1999, hurricanes Bret, Dennis, Floyd and Irene all made landfall in the United States. There was also hurricane Lenny which formed in mid-November in the Caribbean as it tracked eastward through the region, a very rare event. The 2000 hurricane season featured no landfalling U.S. hurricanes.

2007/08 It would not be until 2007 that the next La Niña would develop. It was moderate in intensity and lasted until early 2008 and then faded to neutral conditions before the hurricane season began. As it turned out, 2007 had only one hurricane strike the U.S. and that was Humberto, a very small, rapidly developing hurricane in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The two notable events were hurricanes Dean and Felix which were both category five and tracked at a fairly low latitude and in to Central America. In 2008, when the La Niña faded, a multitude of hurricanes took aim at the U.S. and surrounding island nations. The most devastating for the U.S. was hurricane Ike which traveled from Africa to Texas.

2010 The 2010 La Niña began in the early summer and has persisted ever since. As I previously mentioned, of the 10 hurricanes that formed, none hit the United States. The La Niña remains firmly in place and is forecast to perhaps modify towards neutral as we approach the peak of the 2011 hurricane season.

From these observations, can we take away anything helpful? Perhaps a little. It seems that during the actual strongest part of a La Niña episode that the U.S. is spared the worst of the hurricanes. The evidence suggests that when we are heading in to or are in neutral conditions that the threat from hurricanes is highest, but only slightly so. In fact, the record-setting 2005 season was neutral throught the entire 28 named storm cycle. The most obvious conclusion is that during El Niño years, the threat from Atlantic hurricanes is dimished greatly. However, some outliers to that statistic exist. Look at 1992. That was a weak El Niño season and hurricane Andrew was the one hurricane to cause a problem that season. So the bottom line is that while we would like to find a reliable pattern to make sense of, the fact remains that weather is dynamic and trying to predict an upcoming hurricane season based on past El Niño/La Niña data is only partially helpful. So much has to do with the steering patterns during periods of active hurricane bursts. No one can predict with any skill what those steering patterns will be like this far out. For now, we'll have to wait and continue to endure the cold and fairly stormy winter. How much of it can be directly attributed to La Niña is tough to say. We will keep an eye on the evolution of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. I would lean towards thinking that if they moderate some towards neutral then this hurricane season might just have a slightly better chance of spawning some unpleasant moments for our coastal areas. As far as which coastal area, well, if I knew, I would tell you. Only time will tell. At least as we approach June 1, the average temperature for all us will be going up steadily which is good news, even if we do not look forward to the hurricane season itself.
Quoting HOOTat:
all hail the purple ancient aliens!
If I'm no mistaken(IINM?), when it was a lot warmer, the continents were all together. That's not going to happen for a long time. lol


A long time for us...but to the ancient aliens, they might see continental drift 100 million years from now as a summer vacation. ancient aliens don't like cold water.
Quoting JRRP:


Looks like a significant coral bleaching event in store for much of the mid-latitude South Pacific. The area 135W-170W, 30S-40S has warmed significantly compared to average temperatures within the past week. Also, it looks like the recent warm water being driven into Jakobshavn Isbrae has incited a response in cold meltwater from that glacial outlet, which will likely trigger freezing of the Davis Strait and coast of Labrador even though the Arctic sun has already risen in that area, and in turn, the reduction of Gulf Stream-W. Greenland diversion should redirect more warm water to the east, meaning that Europe should see more seasonable temperatures, as it is still recovering from the Greenland Block.
ancient aliens don't like cold water

shrinkage?
A vehicle crash on the icy highway near Guelph, Ontario:

Quoting Surfcropper:


since ice management took over less than 100 years ago...

pretty sure the Earth has seen periods where there was no sea ice whatsoever...we just weren't around to keep records of it.


In my opinion, this is the absolute weakest bit of denialism people come up with: almost any time a record is mentioned--at least, a record that seems to bolster AGWT--someone's bound to respond, "Yeah, but records have only been kept for X number of years!".

But why is that?

When someone uses the word "record"--as Michael did when he wrote "Of note is that global sea ice area is about to set a new absolute record minimum"--they are both implicitly and explicitly referring to recorded history. And sometimes even the word "record" isn't needed; if I say the world record long jump is 29.4 feet, most thinking people rightly assume I mean that's the longest jump that's ever been officially measured and verified. No one will feel need to chime in, "Yeah, well, maybe one of our forebears was racing to escape from a pack of starving hyenas when he jumped across a ravine 33 feet in width!" Maybe--but we just weren't around to keep a record of it. ;-)

IMO, it's a lousy defensive tactic.
Quoting NRAamy:
ancient aliens don't like cold water

shrinkage?


nah..it frizzes their hair too much.


Sun coming up over Wilma..
Quoting Floodman:
"Well it's kind of hot and smoky
In this ante room to hell
And I won't make up a story
'Cause you know the truth too well
It's far too late to worry
That we never had a chance
And when the politicians get here
We will dance, dance dance
When the politicians get here
We will dance"

LOL




And this one:

So the kids they dance they shake their bones Cause its all too clear were on our own
And the politicians throwing stones...
singin ashes, ashes all fall down
I wonder if Wilma will be the same as the previous Wilma???
Move on, there's nothing to see here.
Quoting Neapolitan:

In my opinion, this is the absolute weakest argument that denialists come up with: every time a record is mentioned--at least, a record that seems to bolster AGWT--someone's bound to respond, "Yeah, but records have only been kept for X number of years!".

But why is that?

When someone uses the word "record"--as Michael did when he wrote "Of note is that global sea ice area is about to set a new absolute record minimum"--they are both implicitly and explicitly referring to recorded history. And sometimes even the word "record" isn't needed; if I say the world record long jump is 29.4 feet, most thinking people rightly assume I mean that's the longest jump that's ever been officially measured and verified. No one will feel need to chime in, "Yeah, well, maybe one of our forebears was racing to escape from a pack of starving hyenas when he jumped across a ravine 33 feet in width!" Maybe--but we just weren't around to keep a record of it. ;-)

IMO, it's a lousy defensive tactic.


yeah, and it takes too long to build an oil refinery..10 years!! It takes too long to build nuclear reactors!!

All I'm saying is, its not really scientific to say we have "record" highs, lows, levels, etc. "Sea Ice is at a record low!!" The moon is at a record distance away from us year after year. Our solar year is getting longer 1.25 microseconds per year, that's record breaking. I just turned a few seconds older now, so that's a record advance in age for me...wow we're breaking records all the time!!

As far as ravine jumping, over time given erosion and tectonic plate movement, a 33 foot ravine could be a centimeter wide crack in a few thousand years...record breaking stuff.

Could Dimming the Sun Change Teleconnections in Weather Patterns as we Know Them?


Ahh something that seems so under discussed here.. Aerosols. Interesting they worry about using arosols to mitigate GW specifically afraid to starve Africa & Asia.. the same reasons aerosols were reduced in the 80s.
A threat for a Tornado Outbreak has increased for us here in Florida tomorrow night. They may upgrade probabilities, maybe even a rare moderate risk if the trend continues.


"DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
*

Lots of energy coming with this storm.
Quoting Surfcropper:


since ice management took over less than 100 years ago...

pretty sure the Earth has seen periods where there was no sea ice whatsoever...we just weren't around to keep records of it.



From one of the links I posted earlier (you should look at it):

Paleoanthropological evidence of Homo sapiens in Africa dates from about 200,000 years ago, i.e., over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles in Fig. 1c. Migration of Homo sapiens to other continents, 60,000 years ago, occurred at about the midpoint of the cooling after the penultimate (Eemian) interglacial period. Earlier human-like populations, such as Neanderthals and Homo erectus, date back at least 2,000,000 years, but, as is clear from Fig. 1a, even those species were present only in the recent time of ice ages.


Hmmm... have to think why we evolved during this period and not 50 million years ago or whatever (assuming that you actually believe that we evolved and the Earth is really that old).
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I wonder if Wilma will be the same as the previous Wilma???


Well, in 2008, there was a Cyclone Ivan that was similar to the Atlantic version in 2004, in terms of impact (they even nicknamed it "Ivan the terrible", just like the Atlantic storm).
Quoting MichaelSTL:


From one of the links I posted earlier (you should look at it):

Paleoanthropological evidence of Homo sapiens in Africa dates from about 200,000 years ago, i.e., over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles in Fig. 1c. Migration of Homo sapiens to other continents, 60,000 years ago, occurred at about the midpoint of the cooling after the penultimate (Eemian) interglacial period. Earlier human-like populations, such as Neanderthals and Homo erectus, date back at least 2,000,000 years, but, as is clear from Fig. 1a, even those species were present only in the recent time of ice ages.


Hmmm... have to think why we evolved during this period and not 50 million years ago or whatever (assuming that you actually believe that we evolved and the Earth is really that old).


I don;t see how this proves that homo sapiens are witnessing a record reduction of sea ice. Sea Ice is Sea Ice. Any record of Sea Ice should include a footnote deatiling that our species is post dated after 2 million years ago. We have no evidence early mammals and dinosaurs kept their sea ice records. You have to think even 50 million years ago the human ancestors evolved from something that lived on the Earth for millions of years where there was zero sea ice planetwide.
Michael: Thanks for the info and links. I want to study more about the Milankovic cycles. Not only have we been relatively constant over the last 9000 yrs, but we did not appear to have as high a peak in temperature or sea level as the earlier cycles would indicate. trying to stay within about 500,000 years as the earlier times aren't as relevant(IMO) to what we face today.
Quoting Surfcropper:


I don;t see how this proves that homo sapiens are witnessing a record reduction of sea ice. Sea Ice is Sea Ice. Any record of Sea Ice should include a footnote deatiling that our species is post dated after 2 million years ago. We have no evidence early mammals and dinosaurs kept their sea ice records. You have to think even 50 million years ago the human ancestors evolved from something that lived on the Earth for millions of years where there was zero sea ice planetwide.


Yes, but so what (PLEASE read the links I posted - or maybe I'll just post the entire articles here) - the climate wasn't necessarily good for humans, or all of their associated food crops and infrastructure. In fact, 50 million years ago it was literally too hot for humans to survive without artificial cooling. Plus, agriculture depends on a stable climate, a big reason why it developed during the Holocene (and very likely delayed the eventual cooling; yes, even thousands of years ago we were already having an impact).

Most people can't even begin to imagine the implications of what will happen if we continue business as usual...
maybe SpongeBob knows the answer to the sea ice problem....I bet Plankton is behind the whole thing....maybe he's an ancient alien....
Quoting Jedkins01:
"Jedkin~ Agreed..theories will change.. This week the hot topic could be how much faster the oceans could rise than expected. Two new things out..

Climate change: Rising waters threaten North Carolina & national security

Must-read Hansen and Sato paper: We are at a climate tipping point that, once crossed, enables multi-meter sea level rise this century

Have you had college Chemistry for science majors yet? They wouldn't let me out of there til I knew what GHGs absorbed what wavelengths of IR photons & how long they lasted, the sorts of reactions to dismantle them, etc.. They are quite measurable & chemically explained. No big secret that WV is the most abundant GHG & without it our blue marble would be way too cold for us. I remember experiments..CO2 vs methane vs WV vs air vs vacuum in a double glass pane.. which heats up more & how much..use your volumes to workout nightmarish equations. That class started with some "deniers", didn't end with any. I was on a physics quest at the time. Does Met majors have to take the harder Chem for science majors?"

Hey SkyPony, yes unfortunately I do have to take some pretty serious chemistry, I need basic chem and 2 more chem classes after that require calculus to be completed. I have already completed the introductory class to chemistry, as well as the first calculus, this semester I am working on the harder stuff.

Honestly, I ended up finishing the last Chemistry course with an 85%, and I worked very hard to get that grade. I'm not sure why, but even though I'm pretty decent at math and I really love physics, Ive found I hate chemistry. For some reason the chemistry equations don't make any sense to me when the math is in chemistry form. My brain just doesn't work well with chemistry, just like some people just don't get how I love meteorology so darn much, lol.

Because I did work hard to earn that grade, I did learn quite a bit about the nature of gasses and how they interact though.

Ive yet to take the more difficult chemistry courses though, I'm not looking forward to them to say the least! lol

The only time I enjoyed chemistry at all was for the brief amount of time that we went over meteorology applications, which there weren't much of...
I had to take 2 general chemistry courses and then took 2 atmo chem courses, by choice. (Yes, I am a little crazy)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Yes, but so what (PLEASE read the links I posted - or maybe I'll just post the entire articles here) - the climate wasn't necessarily good for humans, or all of their associated food crops and infrastructure. In fact, 50 million years ago it was literally too hot for humans to survive without artificial cooling. Plus, agriculture depends on a stable climate, a big reason why it developed during the Holocene (and very likely delayed the eventual cooling; yes, even thousands of years ago we were already having an impact).

Most people can't even begin to imagine the implications of what will happen if we continue business as usual...


I understand completely. Maybe the human species isn't good for the Earth, just as high levels of CO2 aren't good for our bodies and our food supply. I'm all for wishing this ideal climate for our species continues, but its not realistic. And who's to say the evolution of man into something else over time is not better suited for this planet? Its very mind-boggling. Which is why I wish people would just live it up more than worrying about the inevitible. Our helium Sun is like a huge Energizer battery...at some point it's energy ends, so what the heck does sea ice matter in another 8 billion years when the lights go dim? There will be so much darn ice by then, no ancient alien will care about vacationing here anymore. No amount of oil rig shutdowns can stop this rock's doom.


Here is an interesting figure from the aforementioned paper; the dotted line represents the current temperature:



Some things to note - the warming from glacials is usually much faster than the subsequent cooling, and the ice age cycles didn't occur prior to 2 million years ago because they are dependent on the long-term average temperature being low enough. Here are the relative contributions to the temperature changes (some small changes from solar insolation as well which drove it in the first place, not included):

Quoting reedzone:
A threat for a Tornado Outbreak has increased for us here in Florida tomorrow night. They may upgrade probabilities, maybe even a rare moderate risk if the trend continues.


"DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
*

Lots of energy coming with this storm.


Reed, a week or so ago, you said that you didn't believe GW because you are a christian, right?
Quoting Floodman:
"Well it's kind of hot and smoky
In this ante room to hell
And I won't make up a story
'Cause you know the truth too well
It's far too late to worry
That we never had a chance
And when the politicians get here
We will dance, dance dance
When the politicians get here
We will dance"

LOL


The weed keeps getting better & better down there doesnt it.....:)..
Quoting caneswatch:


Reed, a week or so ago, you said that you didn't believe GW because you are a christian, right?


I believe in climate change, not Global Warming.
Quoting caneswatch:


Reed, a week or so ago, you said that you didn't believe GW because you are a christian, right?


Energy and global warming news for January 5, 2011: Scientist proves conservatism and understanding of climate science aren’t incompatible; House Energy Chair Upton (R-MI) shows up at an oil industry event

A physicist by training, John Cook is an evangelical Christian who runs the website skepticalscience.com, which seeks to debunk climate change deniers’ arguments...


And on that thread, here is an article form Skeptical Science on how climate chnage will be bad (and yes, in some cases good, but the bad will likely far outweigh any benefits):

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change

For example:

Agriculture

While CO2 is essential for plant growth, all agriculture depends also on steady water supplies, and climate change is likely to disrupt those supplies through floods and droughts. It has been suggested that higher latitudes – Siberia, for example – may become productive due to global warming, but the soil in Arctic and bordering territories is very poor, and the amount of sunlight reaching the ground in summer will not change because it is governed by the tilt of the earth. Agriculture can also be disrupted by wildfires and changes in seasonal periodicity, which is already taking place, and changes to grasslands and water supplies could impact grazing and welfare of domestic livestock. Increased warming may also have a greater effect on countries whose climate is already near or at a temperature limit over which yields reduce or crops fail – in the tropics or sub-Sahara, for example.
I believe in NOAA.


Global Climate Change Indicators

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.

God works fer NOAA,,and she has tenure as well.
Some may not like the URL, but Watts has a thought provoking guest post analyzing past rapid climate changes from ice core data, historical effects as recorded in human history through proxy, and how the current changes in Greenland compare to past changes.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/easterbrook-on-the-magnitude-of-greenland-gisp2-ice-core-data /

Derision of Watts...
...right...
...about...
...now.

Watts didn't write the post nor conduct the study. He only hosts the website, in this case. Try not to make a fool of yourself.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The reason why orbital variations have caused interglacials/glacials in the recent past is because a cooler climate is more sensitive to changes in forcings. One big reason is the ice-albedo feedback, since ice and snow reflect most of the sunlight while bare ground and open water absorb it. Orbital variations themselves are too small to really cause significant changes unless there is something to amplify them; assuming that everything is initially near equilibrium, a slight warming would result in ice melt and CO2 outgassing from the oceans, both of which would lead to further warming until a new equilibrium is reached (due to the positive feedbacks, the temperature rise is very rapid, while the decline is gradual).

Also of note is that currently, tilt (blue at the top) is decreasing while 65N summer insolation (black in the middle) is decreasing and aphelion occurs in July (image below), all of which point towards a cooler climate:





The perihelion and aphelion of the Earth

Currently, the annual perihelion happens at about 14 days after the winter solstice, thus making January 4 the average date of perihelion. The perihelion that currently occurs in early January places the Earth at a distance of about 91,402,500 miles (about 147,098,070 kilometers) from the sun, which can also be expressed as about 0.98329 astronomical units (AU). (The eccentricity of the orbit also varies slowly over many millennia.)

Likewise, the annual aphelion that currently occurs in early July happens about 14 days after the summer solstice. At this time, the distance of the aphelion is currently about 94,509,130 miles (about 152,097,700 kilometers), which can also be expressed as about 1.01671 AU.


(the significance of this is that cooler summers favor more snow and ice surviving until the next winter - it is cooler summers, not winters, which lead to an ice age; even with high snowfall in recent winters, spring and summer snowcover has still reached new record lows, like last June, when insolation is maximum due to the solstice and albedo has its maximum effect)
While we're looking at Watts guest posts, let's not forget the 4th dimension. The length of time parts of the earth face the sun at different periods counts, too. NH summer is longer than NH winter, as a function of the perihelion and aphelion, too.

Net effect, according to the post, is increasing insolation for NH during summer over the last 100 years and a shorter winter. This supports a lot of anecdotal "spring earlier"-type observations, among other things.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/commentary-hansen-draft-paper-paleoclimate-implications-for-h uman-made-climate-change/

Does make you think, a bit, about the relative difference between the distances and duration of insolation, and what the net effect would be.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
6:00 AM FST January 25 2011
===================================

Warnings for Tonga
======================

Hurricane Warning is now in force for Ha'apai

Storm Warning is now in force for Vavau

Gale Warning remains in force for Tongatapu

A Strong Wind Warning is in force for the rest of Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is in force for southern Lau group

A Strong Wind Warning is now in force for Fiji

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 18.8S 173.0W has 10 minute winds of 65 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 14 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern semicircle and within 80 NM of the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Overall organization has improved in the last 6 hours. Primary band tightly wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to the south and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies under an upper diffluent region and weak sheared environment. CIMSS indicates a weak sheared environment along the forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on visible 1.40 LOG10 spiral and enhanced infrared radar eye pattern with MG eye LG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 20.8S 175.7W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.4S 178.3W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.3S 178.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 12U
3:00 AM WST January 25 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 am WST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 15.4S 125.3E (over land), or 85 km east of Kuri Bay and 435 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

The low continues to track to the southwest just inland from the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity once it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening and bring gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay.

On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may develop in coastal areas of the Pilbara later on Wednesday and during Thursday.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localized stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Wallal.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 123.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.2S 122.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.8S 117.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.9S 112.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Position based on Wyndham radar and IR. The low remains just inland of the NW Kimberley coast, the low is showing improved organization with cloudiness spiraling towards the center. Maximum winds of 25 knots are over water, winds are likely to be lower overland. The low continues to track to the southwest and will be close to the coast in about six hours time. Forecast of cyclone intensity as early as Tuesday evening should it move more over water than land, otherwise development will be delayed until Wednesday.

Vertical shear has continued to eased to now be about 10-15 knots over the system. With significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to develop at least the climatological rate as soon as it reaches open water on Wednesday and Thursday possibly reaching severe cyclone intensity. Weakening is then likely from Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 12U will be at 21:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 AM EST January 25 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (988 hPa) located 19.0S 160.1E, or 1170 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM in northern quadrant
120 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.1S 160.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.6S 159.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.6S 155.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.7S 153.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

FT based on MET with DT poor due to lack of deep convection near the LLCC. Constraints have been used to keep CI at 3.0.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear is persisting across Tropical Cyclone Anthony with an upper trough extending across the Coral Sea. A mid level ridge will begin to extend across the central Coral Sea during Tuesday and will begin to steer Anthony in a west northwesterly direction later in the day and into Wednesday.

Brisbane TCWC will continue to issue products despite the system being east of 160E as it is forecast to move west of 160E in the next 12-18 hours.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Why are skeptics always lumped into one group? If someone has a problem believing that man and his energy is the general factor in climate change, why are they automatically considered a bible thumping fairytale kook? And why are they labeled as "deniers"? Are the AGW scientists and their funders labeled as "pushers"? Not in the media circle. This Denier and Alarmist label has to go. This would best be solved by the science actually proven as fact rather than theory.

Personally, I'd like to see more evidence. Even if that takes another 100 years. Getting a masters degree in magic is just as available as getting one in climate change science.
An 85GHz SSMI microwave overpass of Tropical Storm Wilma from 15:50 UTC revealed a tightly consolidated low-level circulation with a complete eyewall developed. Since then, both infrared and visible satellite images have revealed that a compact eye has developed and cleared (albeit not fully). In the upper levels, the environment is relatively favorable with the exception of an upper-level low located to the northwest of the system not allowing for cirrus outflow to span in that direction. However, although this upper-level low is hindering cirrus outflow in the aforementioned direction, it is enhancing cirrus outflow in the west and southwest direction.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...AS WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE.
re: 108

Just where is 'flood?
..Bueller?
Quoting Patrap:
..Bueller?


Present.
Now that those TPS reports are done,..check out the current GOM situ.





Visible satellite imagery of Anthony shows pretty much a swirl:

The threat of Severe Weather is growing pretty strong at the moment...Weak surface low off the TX coast is supposed to become very strong shortly, just waiting for an upper-level disturbance currently in NW TX to combine with it.

Tornadoes and Damaging Winds will be the two biggest threats, but Hail is also likely in a lot of storms. The threat of long-lived, damaging tornadoes is possible, and I'd be surprised if the SPC did not upgrade to at least a MDT risk (Although the chances of a high risk are pretty low attm).

Quoting atmoaggie:
Some may not like the URL, but Watts has a thought provoking guest post analyzing past rapid climate changes from ice core data, historical effects as recorded in human history through proxy, and how the current changes in Greenland compare to past changes.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/easterbrook-on-the-magnitude-of-greenland-gisp2-ice-core-data /

Derision of Watts...
...right...
...about...
...now.

Watts didn't write the post nor conduct the study. He only hosts the website, in this case. Try not to make a fool of yourself.


I found that post very enlightening. The magnitudes of warming episodes in the last 25000 years apparently dwarf the current modern warming, and were not correlated with CO2. The historical information about the medieval warm period was also interesting, proving that we were warmer not that long ago.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery
at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)


Australia/Fiji Region

Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Storm Anthony


Quoting Levi32:


I found that post very enlightening. The magnitudes of warming episodes in the last 25000 years apparently dwarf the current modern warming, and were not correlated with CO2. The historical information about the medieval warm period was also interesting, proving that we were warmer not that long ago.


AGW proponents speak seriously of year to year termperature fluctuations of less than one degree as proof of warming. Bulb thermometers are not that accurate and have a short life span. Electronic thermometers in official weather stations are almost never regularly calibrated. Ninety percent of US surface stations are influenced by artificial heat. Are we truly expected to believe that an increase of less than one degree demonstrates climate change when the majority of US stations only have an accuracy rate of +/- 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit?
By Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack.com

LA NIÑA AND YOU

You may have read the headlines about how La Niña is to blame for the recent devastating floods in Australia and the cold and snow in parts of the eastern United States. Last year at this time, it was El Niño though it was about to fade and transition in to the current La Niña we are experiencing now. So what are El Niño and La Niña? The simple answer is this:

El Niño is the abnormal warming of the Equatorial Pacific. La Niña is the abnormal cooling of the Equatorial Pacific. What causes the two phenomenon? That is a story for another day as there are too many variables to go in to here. The main aspect of the two distinctly different anomalies is that one (El Niño) ADDS heat to the Pacific while the other (La Niña) takes that heat out. Remember, heat is energy and the less heat there is, the less energy there is. This change from the normal pattern throws a proverbial monkey wrench in to the global weather patterns.

Is this La Niña causing the cold and snow for the Southeast? Well, according to the NOAA La Niña site, a typical La Niña winter for the Southeast is characterized by warmer than normal temps. That certainly has not been the case this winter. However, another typical result of La Niña conditions is drought for portions of the Southeast and that is most definitely the case. In fact, Florida is especially dry right now even though a recent frontal passage did bring fairly widespread precipitation to the Sunshine State. Contrast this to last winter when a series of relentless winter storms came across the northern Gulf and dumped copious amounts of rain along the southern tier states- including a good deal of Florida. Then, it all came to an abrupt halt once the La Niña developed in the tropical Pacific. Experts on the subject point out that saying any one weather event cannot be pin-pointed to La Niña or El Niño but that the overall weather pattern can be changed, resulting in disruptive weather events over a period of time.

How long is the La Niña going to last and what about hurricane season? The most recent climate models from Australia and Europe suggest that the La Niña will slowly fade over the coming months to near neutral conditions by mid-summer or early fall. On the other hand, the U.S. generated Climate Forecast System is forecasting a continuation of the current La Niña through at least October. A La Niña pattern is usually associated with enhanced Atlantic hurricane activty due to the lower upper level wind shear values that often accompany the cold episodes of the Pacific. This was evident last season and likely contributed to the high numbers of hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. However, the steering patterns were such that ZERO of the ten hurricanes that formed hit the United States - a remarkable stroke of luck to be sure. As we know, Colorado State University is forecasting 17 named storms for the upcoming season and cites the lack of El Niño conditions as being partly responsible for the high numbers.

If we look closely at past La Niña events we might be able to detect a pattern and at least get an idea of what to expect this coming Atlantic hurricane season. Let's examine only the most recent La Niña episodes since they also correlate with the current warm phase of the Atlantic- which began in 1995.

1995/96 Fairly weak La Niña lasting from the summer of 1995 through early 1996. The La Niña faded to neutral conditions by the time hurricane season had arrived in 1996. In 1995, there were 19 named storms. Two hurricanes hit the United States that year: Erin and Opal. Neither formed from a long-track Cape Verde tropical wave. All of the true Cape Verde hurricanes of 1995 curved well east of the United States with the greatest impact being to the northeast Caribbean islands. In 1996, the La Niña faded to neutral conditions and we saw 13 named storms. That year, hurricanes Bertha and Fran made landfall along the North Carolina coast (Bertha also passed over Puerto Rico).

1998-2000 A strong La Niña set in after the record El Niño of 1997. This La Niña remained firmly in place for several years, reaching its peak at the end of 1999 and in to early 2000. This La Niña event was characterized by several hurricanes hitting the United States. In 1998, hurricane Bonnie made landfall in North Carolina while Earl struck the Florida panhandle. In late September of that year, powerful hurricane Georges marched across the Atlantic Basin and blasted the Greater Antilles, the Florida Keys, finally making landfall in Mississippi. In 1999, hurricanes Bret, Dennis, Floyd and Irene all made landfall in the United States. There was also hurricane Lenny which formed in mid-November in the Caribbean as it tracked eastward through the region, a very rare event. The 2000 hurricane season featured no landfalling U.S. hurricanes.

2007/08 It would not be until 2007 that the next La Niña would develop. It was moderate in intensity and lasted until early 2008 and then faded to neutral conditions before the hurricane season began. As it turned out, 2007 had only one hurricane strike the U.S. and that was Humberto, a very small, rapidly developing hurricane in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The two notable events were hurricanes Dean and Felix which were both category five and tracked at a fairly low latitude and in to Central America. In 2008, when the La Niña faded, a multitude of hurricanes took aim at the U.S. and surrounding island nations. The most devastating for the U.S. was hurricane Ike which traveled from Africa to Texas.

2010 The 2010 La Niña began in the early summer and has persisted ever since. As I previously mentioned, of the 10 hurricanes that formed, none hit the United States. The La Niña remains firmly in place and is forecast to perhaps modify towards neutral as we approach the peak of the 2011 hurricane season.

From these observations, can we take away anything helpful? Perhaps a little. It seems that during the actual strongest part of a La Niña episode that the U.S. is spared the worst of the hurricanes. The evidence suggests that when we are heading in to or are in neutral conditions that the threat from hurricanes is highest, but only slightly so. In fact, the record-setting 2005 season was neutral throught the entire 28 named storm cycle. The most obvious conclusion is that during El Niño years, the threat from Atlantic hurricanes is dimished greatly. However, some outliers to that statistic exist. Look at 1992. That was a weak El Niño season and hurricane Andrew was the one hurricane to cause a problem that season. So the bottom line is that while we would like to find a reliable pattern to make sense of, the fact remains that weather is dynamic and trying to predict an upcoming hurricane season based on past El Niño/La Niña data is only partially helpful. So much has to do with the steering patterns during periods of active hurricane bursts. No one can predict with any skill what those steering patterns will be like this far out. For now, we'll have to wait and continue to endure the cold and fairly stormy winter. How much of it can be directly attributed to La Niña is tough to say. We will keep an eye on the evolution of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. I would lean towards thinking that if they moderate some towards neutral then this hurricane season might just have a slightly better chance of spawning some unpleasant moments for our coastal areas. As far as which coastal area, well, if I knew, I would tell you. Only time will tell. At least as we approach June 1, the average temperature for all us will be going up steadily which is good news, even if we do not look forward to the hurricane season itself.
Quoting Levi32:


I found that post very enlightening. The magnitudes of warming episodes in the last 25000 years apparently dwarf the current modern warming, and were not correlated with CO2. The historical information about the medieval warm period was also interesting, proving that we were warmer not that long ago.

Garbage in, garbage out; Easterbrook is known far and wide for his inability or unwillingness to understand the intricacies of the PDO; he simply insists on seeing signals that few others do, on interpreting data in ways few others do, and coming to conclusions that few others do.

Bottom line: for Easterbrook's "global cooling" theory to work, one needs to discard those mountains of data that don't fit--which he apparently does. Then again, one wouldn't expect much different from a paid shill for the ultra-conservative, cigarettes-are-good-for-you, pollution-is-a-sign-of-a-healthy-economy, regulations-are-for-wimps Heartland Institute.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Some may not like the URL, but Watts has a thought provoking guest post analyzing past rapid climate changes from ice core data, historical effects as recorded in human history through proxy, and how the current changes in Greenland compare to past changes.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/easterbrook-on-the-magnitude-of-greenland-gisp2-ice-core-data /

Derision of Watts...
...right...
...about...
...now.

Watts didn't write the post nor conduct the study. He only hosts the website, in this case. Try not to make a fool of yourself.


Too late for that...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Garbage in, garbage out; Easterbrook is known far and wide for his inability or unwillingness to understand the intricacies of the PDO; he simply insists on seeing signals that few others do, on interpreting data in ways few others do, and coming to conclusions that few others do.

Bottom line: for Easterbrook's "global cooling" theory to work, one needs to discard those mountains of data that don't fit--which he apparently does. Then again, one wouldn't expect much different from a paid shill for the ultra-conservative, cigarettes-are-good-for-you, pollution-is-a-sign-of-a-healthy-economy, regulations-are-for-wimps Heartland Institute.
? The post is not about Easterbrook, genius. Scared to discuss the post, itself? Go ahead and tell us just what in the post is wrong...

So long as we're examining authors of the cybersphere, though, are you a shill for GE?
Well so much for civility.


Quoting Patrap:
Well so much for civility.




Haven't you heard, Pat? Civility's been banned. ;-)
No where credible,university,nor Credible Institution or Independent panel,nor individual can show this Planet cooling.

I respectfully ask if someone can do a Blog entry of their own here,,(we've got plenty o' ram for yas)..that shows a Cooling planet,with studies and credits due as is done by this authors entry above, in the scientific manner.

I'll be in the Gym..

Working on my Lay-up's,and trying to think of my Mardi Gras Day Costume this year.



Quoting Neapolitan:

Garbage in, garbage out; Easterbrook is known far and wide for his inability or unwillingness to understand the intricacies of the PDO; he simply insists on seeing signals that few others do, on interpreting data in ways few others do, and coming to conclusions that few others do.

Bottom line: for Easterbrook's "global cooling" theory to work, one needs to discard those mountains of data that don't fit--which he apparently does. Then again, one wouldn't expect much different from a paid shill for the ultra-conservative, cigarettes-are-good-for-you, pollution-is-a-sign-of-a-healthy-economy, regulations-are-for-wimps Heartland Institute.


True - what legitimate climate scientist would take data known to be contaminated, flip it and use it to support AGW?

Other than Mann, that is...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat of Severe Weather is growing pretty strong at the moment...Weak surface low off the TX coast is supposed to become very strong shortly, just waiting for an upper-level disturbance currently in NW TX to combine with it.

Tornadoes and Damaging Winds will be the two biggest threats, but Hail is also likely in a lot of storms. The threat of long-lived, damaging tornadoes is possible, and I'd be surprised if the SPC did not upgrade to at least a MDT risk (Although the chances of a high risk are pretty low attm).



Lots of energy with this system, remember the storm in March of 2001? This may be similar.
Quoting JupiterKen:
re: 108

Just where is 'flood?


Central Missouri, most likely
A massive volcanic explosion could cool this planet...but predicting those are harder than hitting 8 digits in Keno. Yet, geologists claim its coming..one day. Maybe Yellowstone, maybe Sumatra..who knows for sure. So after that day comes there will be plenty of cooling data, just gotta wait fer it.

Hiya Floodman.

Im reviewing Ark Plans and trying to figure out if the alligators should go in first,middle,or last.

The Ark can Sustain with Solar,,but were also looking for a Low power reactor just in case.



PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 24 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2011

RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH FORECAST NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY ALTHOUGH
RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE TROUGH ENERGY
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AO INDEX WHICH
RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN
WEAKLY POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL THROUGH DAY 14. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS
BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART
INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS,
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
THE EXPECTATION OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOWS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ALL OF ALASKA.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GULF COAST,
AND SOUTHEAST. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOWS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS. THE REST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAYS 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.





8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2011

THE RECENT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2
CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY BLEND CHART. THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR WEEK 2 ARE ALSO VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING WEEK 2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.



FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Based on the above discussions, it looks like some interesting things may be happening next week, especially for the southern states. It's not often the ECMWF ensembles produce a monstrous positively-tilted trough connected with Arctic air and EPAC moisture with such good agreement to the operational ECMWF!

but predicting those are harder than hitting 8 digits in Keno.

;)
Quoting Patrap:
Hiya Floodman.

Im reviewing Ark Plans and trying to figure out if the alligators should go in first,middle,or last.

The Ark can Sustain with Solar,,but were also looking for a Low power reactor just in case.


Hey, Pat! Wet in your neighborhood? We're seeing about 10" of snow here; a little colder than your house too...

Looks like you may need your water wings soon
Quoting reedzone:
A threat for a Tornado Outbreak has increased for us here in Florida tomorrow night. They may upgrade probabilities, maybe even a rare moderate risk if the trend continues.


"DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
*

Lots of energy coming with this storm.




Yeah man, I'm currently doing maintenance on my weather station, to make sure all components will be ready for tomorrow! lol
Quoting Patrap:
Hiya Floodman.

Im reviewing Ark Plans and trying to figure out if the alligators should go in first,middle,or last.

The Ark can Sustain with Solar,,but were also looking for a Low power reactor just in case.


Should be able to use methane, too.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I had to take 2 general chemistry courses and then took 2 atmo chem courses, by choice. (Yes, I am a little crazy)


Yes you are crazy! lol, I happen 2 know a couple of other people who really enjoy chemistry too though, surprisingly. lol
Quoting hcubed:


Should be able to use methane, too.


LOL...should be plenty o'that on "Pat's Ark"
Ooops...was that my outside voice?
Quoting atmoaggie:
? The post is not about Easterbrook, genius. Scared to discuss the post, itself? Go ahead and tell us just what in the post is wrong...

So long as we're examining authors of the cybersphere, though, are you a shill for GE?

Why the seeming hostility, friend? Anyway, thanks for recognizing my superior intellect with your "genius" remark. Guess that explains my membership in the Prometheus Society. ;-)

No, the article wasn't about Denier-In-Chief Easterbrook, but it was by him; not sure whether you saw that or not. But so far as what in the post is wrong, I haven't the time (nor the inclination) to rebut yet another of Easterbrook's frequent--and increasingly surreal--flights of fantasy. I'll just say this: anyone can freely download the raw GISPII data from the NOAA FTP servers, which is what Easterbrook appears to have done. And anyone's free to create their own graphs and charts, using only that data which corroborates their pre-suppositions. Again, this is what Easterbrook appears to have done. Unfortunately for Easterbrook, his "interpretations" of the data appear different from what most paleoclimatologists come up with. Just to get you started, look at this: http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/alley1.html
Quoting Neapolitan:

Why the seeming hostility, friend? Anyway, thanks for recognizing my superior intellect with your "genius" remark. Guess that explains my membership in the Prometheus Society. ;-)

No, the article wasn't about Denier-In-Chief Easterbrook, but it was by him; not sure whether you saw that or not. But so far as what in the post is wrong, I haven't the time (nor the inclination) to rebut yet another of Easterbrook's frequent--and increasingly surreal--flights of fantasy. I'll just say this: anyone can freely download the raw GISPII data from the NOAA FTP servers, which is what Easterbrook appears to have done. And anyone's free to create their own graphs and charts, using only that data which corroborates their pre-suppositions. Again, this is what Easterbrook appears to have done. Unfortunately for Easterbrook, his "interpretations" of the data appear different from what most paleoclimatologists come up with. Just to get you started, look at this: http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/alley1.html


Lol.
Meanwhile, daily satellite data shows that this current La Nina has already lowered global temperatures by a greater amount since its start than the 2008 La Nina did, and it is still falling. Furthermore, 2011 looks to be trying to become the 10th straight year with a running flat trend in global temperature. We have flat-lined since 2002 (basically since 1998 as well), and decade-long flattening when the global oceans don't support it yet (this isn't a repeat of 1945-1977 yet) seems to be significantly outside of the forecasted trend.



Data found here.
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...should be plenty o'that on "Pat's Ark"


Photobucket
Quoting hcubed:


True - what legitimate climate scientist would take data known to be contaminated, flip it and use it to support AGW?

Other than Mann, that is...
Quoting hcubed:


True - what legitimate climate scientist would take data known to be contaminated, flip it and use it to support AGW?

Other than Mann, that is...


Perhaps you have been out of the country for sometime and have recently returned? All the allegations which you again repeat in your comment were investigated sometime ago and dismissed as having no basis in fact.
Quoting Floodman:
Ooops...was that my outside voice?


Yes. That's why they call them "thoughts".
Quoting Neapolitan:

Why the seeming hostility, friend?
I just don't care for the irrelevant. What the author of any analysis had for breakfast, how he/she votes, whether or not he/she has to notify his neighbors when he moves, what his particular outlook in AGW happens to be, etc. is completely irrelevant. If the analysis, itself, has holes in it, that would be the only comment worth making about it, IMHO.

And the supposition that any "denier" or "warmista" is incapable of adding 1 plus 1 has long ceased being humorous or useful.


I'll just say this: anyone can freely download the raw GISPII data from the NOAA FTP servers, which is what Easterbrook appears to have done. And anyone's free to create their own graphs and charts, using only that data which corroborates their pre-suppositions. Again, this is what Easterbrook appears to have done. Unfortunately for Easterbrook, his "interpretations" of the data appear different from what most paleoclimatologists come up with. Just to get you started, look at this: http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/alley1.html

From your link:


"Melt against age (upper panel) and July insolation against age (lower panel) for the GISP2 site. Years containing melt features are shown by thin dotted lines. The heavier textured line is the 100-a running mean of melt frequency (number of melt features per 100 years), and the heavy black line is the 1000-a running mean. The lower panel shows deviation of July insolation from modern values in calories/cm2/day, from Berger (1978; 1979); positive values indicate more insolation than today. Data from: Alley, R.B. and S. Anandakrishnan. Variations in melt-layer frequency in the GISP2 ice core: implications for Holocene summer temperatures in central Greenland. Annals of Glaciology 21, 64-70 (1995)"

What a terrible graph...

I can see the point you bring with this graph, but the post and analysis is for the last 25k years, for which that graphic has no utility whatsoever. Easterbrook's points not debunked. Yet.
Quoting Levi32:
Meanwhile, daily satellite data shows that this current La Nina has already lowered global temperatures by a greater amount since its start than the 2008 La Nina did, and it is still falling. Furthermore, 2011 looks to be trying to become the 10th straight year with a running flat trend in global temperature. We have flat-lined since 2002 (basically since 1998 as well), and decade-long flattening when the global oceans don't support it yet (this isn't a repeat of 1945-1977 yet) seems to be significantly outside of the forecasted trend.



Data found here.



That's a good trend for us Floridians, persistent ridges causing very warm mid level temps and sinking air was pretty much the only reason for drought here. We have had a consistent and huge cool down with mid to upper temps across Florida as compared to much of last summer and fall. Our more potent systems can be partly thanks to the cooler mid level temps, helping to give that extra kick in updraft development. The shift in the NAO has a lot to do with it as well, the southern stream jet has become much more active, which always leads to heavy rain and often severe storm here in the winter and spring. Which we can really be thankful for since its the "dry" season. As long as nobody gets hurt from any severe weather, that is.
Any long-range models showing what temps. in so. Fla. may be like Super Bowl weekend?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Any long-range models showing what temps. in so. Fla. may be like Super Bowl weekend?


Sunny with a chance of a.. erm, Steelers victory?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Any long-range models showing what temps. in so. Fla. may be like Super Bowl weekend?


GFS ensembles say chilly.

Thank you Levi.
Quoting CanadianClimateHawk:


Perhaps you have been out of the country for sometime and have recently returned? All the allegations which you again repeat in your comment were investigated sometime ago and dismissed as having no basis in fact.


We're not talking Climategate, or MBH98.

We're talking about data that was used RECENTLY (in Mann08). What investigation or papers backed up the use of Mann's upside-down use of the Tiljander proxies?
GFS is sayin the Packers though, so I don't know. ECMWF is out to lunch with the Colts somehow being involved, and the CMC is sayin Steelers.

As always model consistency is key. ;)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sunny with a chance of a.. erm, Steelers victory?


I'm not a Steelers fan, but I gotta hand it to em, They always get the job done, they aren't pretty boys with big mouths, just hard working men that win. I hate when teams get "Hollywoodized" because of success. The Steelers aren't one of them, probably because they are gritty get the job done types, rather than the flashy I look better than I actually am, kinda team.

However, the Packers aren't that kind of hollywood team either. Just classic, get it done types. That means we are gonna have a good Super Bowl, boys and girls.
156, I believe you will find the numbers through this summer quite remarkable. The physics dictate it as such. \\

163, I like your thinkin :)

In the words of Myron Cope, who's birthday was yesterday,and as the Steelers are privileged to gain another chance to participate in the Big Game, " The Terrible Towel is poised to strike!"



Quoting Levi32:
Meanwhile, daily satellite data shows that this current La Nina has already lowered global temperatures by a greater amount since its start than the 2008 La Nina did, and it is still falling. Furthermore, 2011 looks to be trying to become the 10th straight year with a running flat trend in global temperature. We have flat-lined since 2002 (basically since 1998 as well), and decade-long flattening when the global oceans don't support it yet (this isn't a repeat of 1945-1977 yet) seems to be significantly outside of the forecasted trend.



Data found here.

Hmmm. You're showing anomalies from the last eight years based on the three warmest decades in the last several hundred years. (And even then the linear regression line is ever-so-slightly rising.) Isn't that cherry-picking? If so, that's an excusable mistake for average folks who don't need the rigors of statistical analysis in their day jobs. But any scientist (in pretty much any field) knows that you can't extract meaningful information about trends in noisy data from single-year end points. Period.

The thing is, the temperature isn't flattening, Levi. If you look at the last 30 years, you'll see we've experienced warming of about 0.2 degrees C/decade. If you start with 1970, the surface temperature over this period shows 0.6 degrees C warming. If you start with 1965, you'd see about 0.5 degrees C warming. Start with 1880, and you get 0.8 degrees C of warming. Start with 1855, and you get 0.8 degrees C warming. As with the trend above, we can not say it is over without many decades more data indicating cooling. You could look at the last 500 years in the bore hole record analysis, and you'll see about 1 degree of warming above the first three centuries of that record. Bottom line, each record shows that the 20th century was the warmest of the entire record, that warming was most dramatic after 1920, and that the first decade of this century has been warmest of all.

I wish you were right. I wish the rate of warming would stop. I wish cooling back to 1950 levels was imminent. Unfortunately, however, there are no signs of that happening.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hmmm. You're showing anomalies from the last eight years based on the three warmest decades in the last several hundred years. (And even then the linear regression line is ever-so-slightly rising.) Isn't that cherry-picking? If so, that's an excusable mistake for average folks who don't need the rigors of statistical analysis in their day jobs. But any scientist (in pretty much any field) knows that you can't extract meaningful information about trends in noisy data from single-year end points. Period.

The thing is, the temperature isn't flattening, Levi. If you look at the last 30 years, you'll see we've experienced warming of about 0.2 degrees C/decade. If you start with 1970, the surface temperature over this period shows 0.6 degrees C warming. If you start with 1965, you'd see about 0.5 degrees C warming. Start with 1880, and you get 0.8 degrees C of warming. Start with 1855, and you get 0.8 degrees C warming. As with the trend above, we can not say it is over without many decades more data indicating cooling. You could look at the last 500 years in the bore hole record analysis, and you'll see about 1 degree of warming above the first three centuries of that record. Bottom line, each record shows that the 20th century was the warmest of the entire record, that warming was most dramatic after 1920, and that the first decade of this century has been warmest of all.

I wish you were right. I wish the rate of warming would stop. I wish cooling back to 1950 levels was imminent. Unfortunately, however, there are no signs of that happening.


.2 degrees? You must be kidding. I'll repost a prior statement because I think my posts have been hidden.

AGW proponents speak seriously of year to year termperature fluctuations of less than one degree as proof of warming. Bulb thermometers are not that accurate and have a short life span. Electronic thermometers in official weather stations are almost never regularly calibrated. Ninety percent of US surface stations are influenced by artificial heat. Are we truly expected to believe that an increase of less than one degree demonstrates climate change when the majority of US stations only have an accuracy rate of +/- 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hmmm. You're showing anomalies from the last eight years based on the three warmest decades in the last several hundred years. (And even then the linear regression line is ever-so-slightly rising.) Isn't that cherry-picking? If so, that's an excusable mistake for average folks who don't need the rigors of statistical analysis in their day jobs. But any scientist (in pretty much any field) knows that you can't extract meaningful information about trends in noisy data from single-year end points. Period.

The thing is, the temperature isn't flattening, Levi. If you look at the last 30 years, you'll see we've experienced warming of about 0.2 degrees C/decade. If you start with 1970, the surface temperature over this period shows 0.6 degrees C warming. If you start with 1965, you'd see about 0.5 degrees C warming. Start with 1880, and you get 0.8 degrees C of warming. Start with 1855, and you get 0.8 degrees C warming. As with the trend above, we can not say it is over without many decades more data indicating cooling. You could look at the last 500 years in the bore hole record analysis, and you'll see about 1 degree of warming above the first three centuries of that record. Bottom line, each record shows that the 20th century was the warmest of the entire record, that warming was most dramatic after 1920, and that the first decade of this century has been warmest of all.

I wish you were right. I wish the rate of warming would stop. I wish cooling back to 1950 levels was imminent. Unfortunately, however, there are no signs of that happening.


Firstly, you might take a closer glance at the linear regression. That's a slope of 0.02C per decade, which would take half a millennium to provide a 1C increase. That is a negligible trend to any climatologist. Sorry. It's so small that only one more month of this La Nina could bring the slope to zero or lower.

And yes, we are flattening. The average temperature has not changed since at least 2002, and the current La Nina will only drag that trend towards negative numbers. I don't really care about the anomalies relative to the 20th century average. My post had nothing to do with that. We have warmed somewhat in the last 100 years. That's an expected fact. The point of my post was to show that we have seen a decade now of a flat temperature trend, significantly deviating from the forecasted slope.
I know we are in a La Nina but our Central Fl weather continues to say El Nino. January rainfall already way above normal with much more to come.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
108 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

...HEAVY RAIN WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...RISING RIVER LEVELS...AND
THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

Quoting atmoaggie:
I just don't care for the irrelevant.

And yet you consistently delve into the anti-science slop pit that is WattsUpWithThat.com. ;-)

I never said that Easterbrook couldn't add 1 plus 1; I merely contend that he sees 2's and 3's where every other climatologist sees only those 1's. As the overused expression goes, Easterbrook is entitled to his own opinion, but he's not entitled to his own facts.

Finally, you say the source doesn't interest you. That's okay, but a bit naive; if I were ever to go in for open heart surgery, I'd rather the guy cutting me open be an actual heart surgeon and not, say, a diesel mechanic.

Credibility counts.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
11:00 AM EST January 25 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (992 hPa) located 19.4S 160.8E, or 1230 km east of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM in northern quadrant
120 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.3S 160.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.0S 158.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.2S 154.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.5S 151.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

FT 1.5 based on shear with 2.5 degree separation to deeper convection. CI at 3.0 due to constraints. The system is undergoing strong NW shear and with its slow or WNW forecast movement is likely to be classified a tropical low in the next 6 hours and is unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Longer term global models have redevelopment in the northwest Coral Sea.

Brisbane TCWC will continue to issue products despite the system being east of 160E as it is forecast to move west of 160E in the next 12-18 hours.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Quoting Cochise111:


.2 degrees? You must be kidding. I'll repost a prior statement because I think my posts have been hidden.

AGW proponents speak seriously of year to year termperature fluctuations of less than one degree as proof of warming. Bulb thermometers are not that accurate and have a short life span. Electronic thermometers in official weather stations are almost never regularly calibrated. Ninety percent of US surface stations are influenced by artificial heat. Are we truly expected to believe that an increase of less than one degree demonstrates climate change when the majority of US stations only have an accuracy rate of /- 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit?


This may help put GISS in perspective :)

http://surfacestations.org/

The full survey is here

Is the U.S.
Surface Temperature
Record Reliable?


Get ready for the character assassination and discrediting, but the pictures and evaluations don't lend themselves to redirection. Sorry, to the pay per post people. You will circumvent it accordingly. Just as you have with respect to the other non-conforming information that has been brought forth.
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JANUARY 2011

WSPOD NUMBER.....10-055



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. A62/ 30.4N 78.9W (TORRY)/ 26/1200Z

B. AFXXX 13WSA TRACK62

C. 26/0415Z

D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:

A. A61/ 35.4N 75.1W (TOMMZ)/ 27/0000Z

B. A61/ 35.4N 75.1W (TOMMZ)/ 27/1200Z



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

JWP


Interesting night on MSNBC. Sans Chris Matthews, all other hosts are addressing Keith Olbermann’s departure.
Just to compliment the "DENIER" comments and salutations and subsequent valedictions coming :) For entertainment purposes only!

Quoting Levi32:

And yes, we are flattening. The average temperature has not changed since at least 2002, and the current La Nina will only drag that trend towards negative numbers. I don't really care about the anomalies relative to the 20th century average. My post had nothing to do with that. We have warmed somewhat in the last 100 years. That's an expected fact. The point of my post was to show that we have seen a decade now of a flat temperature trend, significantly deviating from the forecasted slope.


Sometimes it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees.

Photobucket

Data can be found here.

Below was yesterday's Sunday project (aka "What I did with one side of my brain while the other side drank beer and watched ten hours of football coverage"): IWantSomeProof.com.

IWantSomeProof.com

The site uses a bit of advanced HTML and CSS (gradients, rounded box borders, text shadowing, etc.), so it looks substantially better in the latest versions of Chrome or Firefox than it does in less advanced browsers such as Internet Explorer. (Hint, hint)

;-)
Quoting McBill:


Sometimes it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees.

Photobucket

Data can be found here.



I'm not talking about the warming of the 20th century. I'm talking about the last decade, where the trend has flattened out considerably so far. We will see if it continues. It may not. So far, it has fallen short of the IPCC projections for the last 10 years.

Various data sets show predominantly flat trends:



I'm off to dinner.
Quoting Ossqss:


This may help put GISS in perspective :)

http://surfacestations.org/

The full survey is here

Is the U.S.
Surface Temperature
Record Reliable?


Get ready for the character assassination and discrediting, but the pictures and evaluations don't lend themselves to redirection. Sorry, to the pay per post people. You will circumvent it accordingly. Just as you have with respect to the other non-conforming information that has been brought forth.


Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming

On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record



Quoting Levi32:
Meanwhile, daily satellite data shows that this current La Nina has already lowered global temperatures by a greater amount since its start than the 2008 La Nina did, and it is still falling. Furthermore, 2011 looks to be trying to become the 10th straight year with a running flat trend in global temperature. We have flat-lined since 2002 (basically since 1998 as well), and decade-long flattening when the global oceans don't support it yet (this isn't a repeat of 1945-1977 yet) seems to be significantly outside of the forecasted trend.



Data found here.


You're neglecting to mention that the flat to cooling period from the 40's to 70's, was due mainly to our pollution, specifically sulfur dioxide emissions. Once we started combating acid run and scrubbing exhaust the sulfur dioxide content of the atmosphere dropped dramatically and the cooling effect went away.

For a more recent and drastic illustration of the effect of sulfur dioxide, you can see the results from the Pinatubo eruption which globally cooled world temperatures by about .5C . However, SO2 doesn't stay for long in the atmosphere as it readily combines with water vapor into acid rain.

This has several remarks on the subject: Link.

Since the developed nations have started reducing SO2 emissions, world SO2 levels have not increased. The SO2 currently in the atmosphere is masking additional warming we would see otherwise. This has led some to speculate that reintroduction of SO2 could be one of the "extreme" solutions to global warming, at the expense of acid rain.
Quoting Cochise111:


.2 degrees? You must be kidding. I'll repost a prior statement because I think my posts have been hidden.

AGW proponents speak seriously of year to year termperature fluctuations of less than one degree as proof of warming. Bulb thermometers are not that accurate and have a short life span. Electronic thermometers in official weather stations are almost never regularly calibrated. Ninety percent of US surface stations are influenced by artificial heat. Are we truly expected to believe that an increase of less than one degree demonstrates climate change when the majority of US stations only have an accuracy rate of /- 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit?


Very good point my friend;)

If the margin of error on the first level of data(temp record) is BIGGER than the proposed change in global temp(over decades) -approx. 0.3 deg C, the temp record cannot be trusted. It's just plain common scientific sense!

And there is NO consensus of climate scientists! Im sick of hearing lies from the AGW crowd that there is a consensus!

Why not the AGW crowd post a list of their "supposed" scientists who declare AGW to be true. Never seen one yet. Got to make sure they are in fact "qualified".
Quoting Neapolitan:
Below was yesterday's Sunday project (aka "What I did with one side of my brain while the other side drank beer and watched ten hours of football coverage"): IWantSomeProof.com.

IWantSomeProof.com

The site uses a bit of advanced HTML and CSS (gradients, rounded box borders, text shadowing, etc.), so it looks substantially better in the latest versions of Chrome or Firefox than it does in less advanced browsers such as Internet Explorer. (Hint, hint)

;-)


Why are they (chrome) abandoning H.264? It is not hard to support.......
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 12U
9:00 AM WST January 25 2011
=======================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 16.1S 124.3E (near the Kimberley coast), or 150 km north northeast of Derby and 300 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

The low continues to track to the southwest near the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity after it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening, bringing gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island.

On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Whim Creek.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 122.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 18.2S 120.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.7S 115.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 21.9S 110.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

Position based on Wyndham and Broome radar, and IR. The system is between the two radars and coverage is poor, hence the confidence in the position is relatively low.

The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some curvature evident in the developing bands to the southwest. Maximum winds of 25 knots are over water, winds are likely to be lower overland. Forecast of cyclone intensity as early as Tuesday evening should it move more over water than land, otherwise development will likely be delayed until Wednesday.

Vertical shear has continued to ease and is now about 10-15 knots over the LLCC. With significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to develop at least the climatological rate as soon as it reaches open water, and on Wednesday and Thursday possibly reaching severe cyclone intensity. Weakening is then likely from Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear. The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 12U will be at 3:00 AM UTC..
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not talking about the warming of the 20th century. I'm talking about the last decade, where the trend has flattened out considerably so far. We will see if it continues. It may not. So far, it has fallen short of the IPCC projections for the last 10 years.

Various data sets show predominantly flat trends:


Seems to me that the last decade (2000-2009) was noticeably warmer than the one that preceded it (1990-1999). We are talking about climate, right? I don't think 8 years of data really says much about climate.

Maybe you can give us a link to the IPCC projection - it's projections actually - for the last 10 years. I'd like to have a look at that.

I'm becoming very concerned now about the severe weather threat across Central Florida and to a somewhat lesser extent South Florida beginning tomorrow afternoon and lingering to Wednesday around noon. I'll be working on a blog entry highlighting the situation and the potential threats which include isolated strong tornadoes, especially in Central Florida.
Quoting Neapolitan:

And yet you consistently delve into the anti-science slop pit that is WattsUpWithThat.com. ;-)

I never said that Easterbrook couldn't add 1 plus 1; I merely contend that he sees 2's and 3's where every other climatologist sees only those 1's. As the overused expression goes, Easterbrook is entitled to his own opinion, but he's not entitled to his own facts.

Finally, you say the source doesn't interest you. That's okay, but a bit naive; if I were ever to go in for open heart surgery, I'd rather the guy cutting me open be an actual heart surgeon and not, say, a diesel mechanic.

Credibility counts.
Terrible analogy.

What this is, is getting cholesterol advice from a another doctor in addition to listening to what the cardiologist says. But, though you try, let's talk about the climatology post. This sure isn't the geologist gossip blog...

Yes, it does have a sliver of opinion-ish prose at the end...equaling about 2% of the total blog post. The rest is pure fact, or at the very least, is presented that way. None of them strike me as wholly untrue. Anyone else?

Can you disprove any of those points presented as such?
Hummm, credibility and climate science degrees?

Chris Field, Ph.D. Biology (IPCC Co-chair of Working Group 2)
Gavin Schmidt, Ph.D. Applied Mathematics (NASA GISS, RealClimate)
James Hansen, Ph.D. Physics (NASA GISS)
James Lovelock, Ph.D. Medicine
Joe Romm, Ph.D. Physics (Climate Progress)
John Holden, Ph.D. Theoretical Plasma Physics
Joshua B. Halpern, Ph.D. Physics (Rabett Run)
Lonnie Thompson, Ph.D. Geological Science
Michael Mann, Ph.D. Geology (RealClimate)
Michael Oppenheimer, Ph.D. Chemical Physics
Naomi Oreskes, Ph.D. History of Science
Rajendra Pachauri, Ph.D. Industrial Engineering, Indian Railways Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering (IPCC Chairman, 2007-Present)
Richard Alley, Ph.D. Geology
Robert Watson, Ph.D. Chemistry (IPCC Chairman, 1997-2002)
Stefan Rahmstorf, Ph.D. Oceanography
Steven Schneider, Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering and Plasma Physics (Died: July 19, 2010)
Susan Solomon, Ph.D. Chemistry
Tom Chalko, Ph.D. Laser Holography


cchsweatherman

don't know if you're familiar w/the layout of fla, I'm thinking this will be a wake up call for the I-4 corridor. Quick moving, I expect a quick barometer drop near midnite-ish.

Watch your northern end jk capes, watch depth/height (as plotted) dewpoints vs temp.

Let's roll, hahahaha
Quoting atmoaggie:
None of them strike me as wholly untrue. Anyone else?


None of them strike me as wholly untrue? Funny how your standards seem to change when things are consistent with your ideological bent.

Maybe you can tell us why these mooks don't publish real papers in real journals like real scientists?

Rhetorical question, by the way.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Garbage in, garbage out; Easterbrook is known far and wide for his inability or unwillingness to understand the intricacies of the PDO; he simply insists on seeing signals that few others do, on interpreting data in ways few others do, and coming to conclusions that few others do.

Bottom line: for Easterbrook's "global cooling" theory to work, one needs to discard those mountains of data that don't fit--which he apparently does. Then again, one wouldn't expect much different from a paid shill for the ultra-conservative, cigarettes-are-good-for-you, pollution-is-a-sign-of-a-healthy-economy, regulations-are-for-wimps Heartland Institute.

I would say ditto in an alternate reality.
But you of course you know best.

Quoting aquak9:
cchsweatherman

don't know if you're familiar w/the layout of fla, I'm thinking this will be a wake up call for the I-4 corridor. Quick moving, I expect a quick barometer drop near midnite-ish.

Watch your northern end jk capes, watch depth/height (as plotted) dewpoints vs temp.

Let's roll, hahahaha


Definitely going to be watching the observation soundings throughout the day tomorrow as the system approaches.

To answer your question, I'm very familiar with the layout of Florida since I live in South Florida. lol
sorry cchs, i didn't know where you were at. I live up here in Jax. You and I both on the edges of it...still gonna be the kick-off to a bust-out spring season.

Peace ya'll. Enjoy the calm.
Dont mind Spathy.
He is just having fun.
I am sure of that.
One of the only things we humans can be sure of....
That is....
What we do with what we are given.
Live long and prosper.
hi spathy♥

aqua out
Aqua
You got your hatches and garden hatch-lings battened down.
Tuesday could be very bumby.

ahhh spathy- tomorrow is a 16 hour one. 6 sweet peas, 6 lettuce, already inside. The Subaru will bring me home safely around midnite.
Quoting Levi32:


Firstly, you might take a closer glance at the linear regression. That's a slope of 0.02C per decade, which would take half a millennium to provide a 1C increase. That is a negligible trend to any climatologist. Sorry. It's so small that only one more month of this La Nina could bring the slope to zero or lower.

And yes, we are flattening. The average temperature has not changed since at least 2002, and the current La Nina will only drag that trend towards negative numbers. I don't really care about the anomalies relative to the 20th century average. My post had nothing to do with that. We have warmed somewhat in the last 100 years. That's an expected fact. The point of my post was to show that we have seen a decade now of a flat temperature trend, significantly deviating from the forecasted slope.


Looking at a decade's worth of information isn't going to get you far climatological speaking. Sure, temperature's didn't move much, but 10 years is short enough to be affected by both positive and negative noise from short to medium scale phenomena, such as the PDO and El Nino/La Nina. It's too easy to choose ten year periods to show the effect you want (and both sides have done so, so I'm not just pointing the finger at skeptics). The longer the time period, the harder it is to do that. That's one of the reasons why scientist use 30 year periods or longer.

Over the past ten years temperatures didn't rise much. But we still had the warmest decade we've had yet. So what does that mean? While both statements contain valid observations, neither is particularly meaningful or useful in and of themselves. It's sort of like taking a quote out of context and trying to determine the point of the conversation.

As I've said before, single year anomalies and even a decade of anomalies don't provide much evidence one way or the other. That's still within the realms of normal variation.

I think the next decade will be very telling, barring any extreme events.

Quoting reedzone:


Lots of energy with this system, remember the storm in March of 2001? This may be similar.


I was four in 2001, so no, I do not remember it, lol.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Definitely going to be watching the observation soundings throughout the day tomorrow as the system approaches.

To answer your question, I'm very familiar with the layout of Florida since I live in South Florida. lol

I always assumed the CC in CCHS was Cooper City (best known as the alma mater of supermodel Niki Taylor). Is that right?
Quoting aquak9:
ahhh spathy- tomorrow is a 16 hour one. 6 sweet peas, 6 lettuce, already inside. The Subaru will bring me home safely around midnite.

Good to hear.
I gave my new starts an extra sprinkling of pine straw to lessen the blow of the beating.
Good night stay safe.
My wishes to you and my protected seedlings.
Quoting McBill:


None of them strike me as wholly untrue? Funny how your standards seem to change when things are consistent with your ideological bent.

Maybe you can tell us why these mooks don't publish real papers in real journals like real scientists?

Rhetorical question, by the way.

Alright, can you find anything factually untrue in that post?

No one seems willing nor able to analyze the topic at hand, here...
There's a Topic ?

O yeah,,the entry


Is the world's climate getting more extreme, with hotter heat waves, colder cold events, heavier rains, and more extreme droughts? After seeing the unprecedented weather events of 2010 and the equally impressive floods of 2011, it's an important question to be asking. Unfortunately, it's an almost impossible question to answer objectively, because we simply don't have good enough long-term global weather records to do so. However, in the U.S., we do have good enough records to attempt this, and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has developed a Climate Extremes Index to do so. For 2010, the Climate Extremes Index (CEI) showed that the U.S. had a near-average area experiencing extreme weather conditions. Averaged over decades-long time scales, the U.S. climate has been getting more extreme since 1970, but has not changed significantly over a century-long time scale. The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is based upon three parameters:

1) Monthly maximum and minimum temperature
2) Daily precipitation
3) Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Discussion from earlier today:

"AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL HELP ORGANIZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CERTAINLY BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER MAY SLIGHTLY
OFFSET THE AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...WITH 0-3KM AGL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 300 M/S OVER THE
LAKE REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS CERTAINLY EXISTS.
THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
LAKE. ALL OF THAT SAID, IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY FROM STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL BE
ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WITH A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF STORMS REMAIN
DISCRETE, A FEW SEVERE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD
OCCUR, WHILE A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE WOULD MAINLY RESULT IN
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH RAPID COOLING AND TEMPS FALLING TO
NEAR -10C AT H5. FINALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD MOVEMENT TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN CORRIDORS. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY."
Quoting Ossqss:


Why are they (chrome) abandoning H.264? It is not hard to support.......

Darn good question. I know Google claims it's because H.264 isn't an open codec, but it's more open than WebM. My own guess is that money's involved; H.264 isn't royalty-free, and Google wants to avoid paying up. If so, that's a little hypocritical; Flash is more closed and proprietary than H.264, and they don't have a problem with that.

Ah, well; while they sort things out, I'll continue to plumb the depths of HTML5. So far, it's completely awesome...
Didnt Michael Steele exit the same way ?

(Cymbal crash)
Quoting McBill:


Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming

On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record





Do ya really buy that? The FLIR talks volumes ....... I have one available if you would like to use it :)



I thought Steele went out the back door.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not talking about the warming of the 20th century. I'm talking about the last decade, where the trend has flattened out considerably so far. We will see if it continues. It may not. So far, it has fallen short of the IPCC projections for the last 10 years.

Various data sets show predominantly flat trends:



I'm off to dinner.


The anomalies are based on the 1979-2010 mean, which includes three warm decades, including two of the warmest. That will, of course, reduce the anomalies.

If I were to show a graph of temperature anomalies, I would use the last 100 years of data. That way it would include the warmth of the 20's/30's, include several PDO cycles, along with several strong Nin* events.

Measuring warmth anomalies relative to the last three decades is sort of like measuring an upward incline when you're already standing on one.
Sigh, what a liberal blog... Can't we all be nice and get along and put our differences aside whether it be polatics or GW?
Local mets are taking this severe weather threat seriously for tomorrow:

WPTV Storm Team 5
Our new meteorologist Kait has offered to come in and help us out if severe weather pops up overnight Tuesday. That's after working 8 days straight with some double shifts. Thanks big time Kait. - Steve Weagle
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 24 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A62/ 30.4N 78.9W (TORRY)/ 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 13WSA TRACK62
C. 26/0415Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z
Jan 24, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 24 17:26:53 UTC 2011



Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 241724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN
GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN
STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA.

...FL...

WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM.
STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH
APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS

..DIAL.. 01/24/2011
Quoting reedzone:
Sigh, what a liberal blog... Can't we all be nice and get along and put our differences aside whether it be polatics or GW?


Not likely, not during the NH tropical wx offseason.

During the Atlantic Hurricane season and when there is a major system to track and to discuss, the ceaseless AGW tug-of-war will be temporarily suspended, or at least toned down. But this time of year, not a chance.

During the offseason I just come by here occasionally or when there may be an interesting non-tropical weather development in the formative stage, in order to see what other weather-knowledgeable people have to say about that. For the most part I just skip over all of the posts of those locked into a debate with one another about AGW.

To each his or her own.

GOM IR Loop




Quoting FLWaterFront:
To each his or her own.

Truer words have never been spoken...
Quoting reedzone:
Sigh, what a liberal blog... Can't we all be nice and get along and put our differences aside whether it be polatics or GW?

Well I tried some fun, poking humor but I am on ignore or no ONE person got it.
Its all good.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NM

Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NM


Er, I think you gonna get some showers, Pat.
But I am not absolutely sure.
This forecasting thing is an inexact science, dont you know?
Quoting pottery:

Er, I think you gonna get some showers, Pat.
But I am not absolutely sure.
This forecasting thing is an inexact science, dont you know?



Looking outside.
It wet and getting wetter.

Im doing a paper on it now.
I wonder if the Storm Prediction Center will upgrade the severe wx risk from slight to moderate over a part of the FL peninsula by tomorrow?

I cannot recall the last time that happened but it probably has been at least ten years since it did. It always does seem as if the NWS SPC is a bit on the conservative side with those forecasts, however. Even in the heart of "tornado alley" they rarely ever issue a high risk potential for any forecast area, for example.
WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
Quoting aspectre:
Preventing another 'Titanic'disaster as the ArcticSea warms.


Not likely to happen. Because of the Titanic disaster, many maritime rules were put in place. The number of life boats, the International Ice Patrol, just to name a few.

Titanic being dissolved by newly ID'd bacteria
SH082011 - Tropical Cyclone WILMA

RAAMB Page

Quoting Patrap:



Looking outside.
It wet and getting wetter.

Im doing a paper on it now.
Huh!!
Does not sound very nice at all.
Stay dry and warm.
"this too shall pass"
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Local mets are taking this severe weather threat seriously for tomorrow:

WPTV Storm Team 5
Our new meteorologist Kait has offered to come in and help us out if severe weather pops up overnight Tuesday. That's after working 8 days straight with some double shifts. Thanks big time Kait. - Steve Weagle


Reading Facebook much? LOL
All things must Pass.

George Harrison
Quoting caneswatch:


Reading Facebook much? LOL


Lol! Yep! You have a FB page?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
12:00 PM FST January 25 2011
===================================

Warnings for Tonga
======================

A Hurricane Warning is in force for western Ha'apai group and nearby smaller islands.

A Storm Warning is in force for Tongatapu

A Gala Warning is in force for rest of Ha'pai group, Vavau group, and 'Eua island

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================

A Gale Warning is in force for Fulaga, Ogea, Vatoa, Ono-I-Lau, and nearby smaller islands.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 20.6S 175.3W has 10 minute winds of 65 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle and 60 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Cyclone has intensified over the last 24 hours. Primary band tightly wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and south but restricted elsewhere. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a weak sheared environment along the forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on enhanced infrared radar eye pattern with OW eye DG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 22.4S 178.2W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 23.7S 179.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 25.2S 175.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol! Yep! You have a FB page?


Haha yes I do.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol! Yep! You have a FB page?


Who doesn't?
What's your dog doing on the paper.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Alright, can you find anything factually untrue in that post?

No one seems willing nor able to analyze the topic at hand, here...


If he would/could post to a scientific journal (he seems to have a reputation of junk science in climate circles) I'm sure they would do a much better job. But here are a couple of things right off the top.

He uses one ice core, and no other proxies to back his assertions. I believe you have personally discredited the use of proxies as useless, and that was for papers who used multiple proxies so I'm not sure why you like the fact that he is using only one. Regardless, that makes his thesis somewhat weak from the start.

He makes a lot of mentions about how CO2 levels did not change during these sudden climate shifts, but carefully omits any data or graphs in that regard. The reason for this is because he is wrong. Paleoclimate records indicate CO2 levels spike with temperature mainly because of the positive feedback cycle. As long frozen areas unfreeze and oceans warm, CO2 is released into the atmosphere which increases warming, so on and so forth. His claims that CO2 didn't increase is directly contradicted by the Vostok ice cores. Here's a graph showing temperature, dust, and CO2 concentrations for the past 400K years. Link.

Then he goes on to make other claims that have been roundly debunked by climate scientists and I'm not going to waste my electrons repeating them here because no one is going to listen to what the scientists say anyway.

One more thing. He claims there is no explanation for the cooler period beginning in the 40's and lasting through the '70's. That is incorrect. The huge amount of SO2 being dumped into the atmosphere was cooling the planet. Once the EPA brought the hammer down about SO2 (it's a nasty toxin, not to mention a key ingredient to acid rain) temperatures started rising again. SO2 cooling is pretty well documented as it is one of the primary cooling factors from large volcanic eruptions (like Pinatubo).

Of course, his conclusion section is a joke and would never make it into any serious science journal.

This is nothing out of the ordinary for such posts on sites like Watt's and McIntyre sites. Lots of quasi-scientific language, bold claims with no or falsified evidence, omission of data that contradicts the topic, and usually ending with a comical derision or too aimed at the climate science community. The cherry on top is usually an obvious rhetorical questions designed specifically to reinforce the reader's perception that climate science is nothing but a conspiratorial lie.

What I find sad way is the amount of cognitive dissonance that seems to rampant on the denier side. For those that don't know what that is, here's a brief article on the subject. Reading the comments after the post is a classic example of this. They're practically singing this guys praises for sticking it too the climate scientists and how they would like to see a real climate scientists put something of this quality together. And yet this guy is guilty of every imagined "crime" that they routinely denigrate the climate science community for.

Even you atmo. You have routinely criticized climate science on many aspects. For example, you routinely scoff at the use of proxy data even when multiple proxies are used. Yet here is someone using only a single proxy while simultaneously omitting data and you seem to support him. Where is the scathing criticism? Why is what this guy doing any better than what you claim the climate science community is doing? Did I miss something in the article that makes his rather poor science more rock solid than real peer-reviewed research?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Who doesn't?


Me, and another 6.3 billion.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Me, and another 6.3 billion.


Hyperbole my good man. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hyperbole my good man. ;)


Yeah, I was wrong. Do the math. ;-)

World population 6,895,658,006
500 million active FB users


Wilma's going up to 75 mph? Isn't that like our cat 2? Looks like some serious damage in the Tonga area is possible ...

Quoting Levi32:


Firstly, you might take a closer glance at the linear regression. That's a slope of 0.02C per decade, which would take half a millennium to provide a 1C increase. That is a negligible trend to any climatologist. Sorry. It's so small that only one more month of this La Nina could bring the slope to zero or lower.

And yes, we are flattening. The average temperature has not changed since at least 2002, and the current La Nina will only drag that trend towards negative numbers. I don't really care about the anomalies relative to the 20th century average. My post had nothing to do with that. We have warmed somewhat in the last 100 years. That's an expected fact. The point of my post was to show that we have seen a decade now of a flat temperature trend, significantly deviating from the forecasted slope.


The thing is that we have been warming since 2002, and that the true trend can only be taken from recent data because we did not have the technology to measure all regions of which the heat may be transferred to until recently.

Heat and energy cannot just accumulate in a region of space, it must have a medium; otherwise it would simply disperse. The atmosphere is poor at holding heat and energy, although I'm sure the large bodies of water with their extensive depths are not. I have read the research papers, and I do have a degree as a physicist; I can tell you that our current net intake of energy is enormous right now. So maybe there will be some fluctuations in specific regions of our environment (such as SST or atmospheric temperatures); but when you take the time and add up every single region, you see that there has always been a net increase over the past few years (can't tell before the data was obtained but I'm sure it was increasing prior also due to the large gap in net energy flux).

Atmospheric temperature increase is also non-linear, and as soon as the bottom layers of the ocean and remaining ice start to warm-up / melt; the atmospheric and SST will increase much more rapidly. This is taking a long time because prior to our rapid expansion as a species, Earth was most likely headed for another ice-age.

Sorry but the warming has already been proven, and the methods and science behind such conclusions don't really care about anyone's opinion. Mathematics and models are based off of observations, not the other way around; once you learn how the natural sciences work it's all very clear. So I would prepare for the worst now and hope for the best in the future, because who knows how bad things are going to get.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Alright, can you find anything factually untrue in that post?

No one seems willing nor able to analyze the topic at hand, here...


Recurring theme. They're willing to tear to shreds any paper they deem suspect, but don't put a whole lot of effort into checking the data in others.

It appears that to some, the reading of a paper starts (and usually ends) with seeing the author (or where that author posts).
Quoting Patrap:
All things must Pass.

George Harrison
\\

The same statement came from the Gastroenterologist , LOL :)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


If he would/could post to a scientific journal (he seems to have a reputation of junk science in climate circles) I'm sure they would do a much better job. But here are a couple of things right off the top.

He uses one ice core, and no other proxies to back his assertions. I believe you have personally discredited the use of proxies as useless, and that was for papers who used multiple proxies so I'm not sure why you like the fact that he is using only one. Regardless, that makes his thesis somewhat weak from the start.

He makes a lot of mentions about how CO2 levels did not change during these sudden climate shifts, but carefully omits any data or graphs in that regard. The reason for this is because he is wrong. Paleoclimate records indicate CO2 levels spike with temperature mainly because of the positive feedback cycle. As long frozen areas unfreeze and oceans warm, CO2 is released into the atmosphere which increases warming, so on and so forth. His claims that CO2 didn't increase is directly contradicted by the Vostok ice cores. Here's a graph showing temperature, dust, and CO2 concentrations for the past 400K years. Link.

Then he goes on to make other claims that have been roundly debunked by climate scientists and I'm not going to waste my electrons repeating them here because no one is going to listen to what the scientists say anyway.

One more thing. He claims there is no explanation for the cooler period beginning in the 40's and lasting through the '70's. That is incorrect. The huge amount of SO2 being dumped into the atmosphere was cooling the planet. Once the EPA brought the hammer down about SO2 (it's a nasty toxin, not to mention a key ingredient to acid rain) temperatures started rising again. SO2 cooling is pretty well documented as it is one of the primary cooling factors from large volcanic eruptions (like Pinatubo).

Of course, his conclusion section is a joke and would never make it into any serious science journal.

This is nothing out of the ordinary for such posts on sites like Watt's and McIntyre sites. Lots of quasi-scientific language, bold claims with no or falsified evidence, omission of data that contradicts the topic, and usually ending with a comical derision or too aimed at the climate science community. The cherry on top is usually an obvious rhetorical questions designed specifically to reinforce the reader's perception that climate science is nothing but a conspiratorial lie.

What I find sad way is the amount of cognitive dissonance that seems to rampant on the denier side. For those that don't know what that is, here's a brief article on the subject. Reading the comments after the post is a classic example of this. They're practically singing this guys praises for sticking it too the climate scientists and how they would like to see a real climate scientists put something of this quality together. And yet this guy is guilty of every imagined "crime" that they routinely denigrate the climate science community for.

Even you atmo. You have routinely criticized climate science on many aspects. For example, you routinely scoff at the use of proxy data even when multiple proxies are used. Yet here is someone using only a single proxy while simultaneously omitting data and you seem to support him. Where is the scathing criticism? Why is what this guy doing any better than what you claim the climate science community is doing? Did I miss something in the article that makes his rather poor science more rock solid than real peer-reviewed research?
Thank you, for the most part.

For a study of Greenland, and it's historical changes, what else would one use for a proxy? True that he does try to use that proxy as a global indicator, when it may not be representative. (Though multiple proxies confirm *some* of the temperature swings discussed.)

And the proxy I scoff at is, primarily, tree rings. Ice cores do have their limitations and uncertainty, but are far better than tree rings.

He did not say that CO2 did not change. As you correctly point out, CO2 will always change when temperature does. He did say numerous times than the temperature changes were not "caused by" or "preceded by" CO2 changes.

As to the 40s to 70s, correct. He did leave out the aerosol negative feedback. Before that he asked: "If CO2 is the cause of global warming, why did temperatures rise for 30 years (1915-1945) with no significant increase in CO2?"

All of the above does not take away the past rapid and extensive temperature swings in Greenland nor how insignificant recent changes appear, in comparison.

As for the rest of your points, they appear to be about another topic.
Quoting McBill:

Seems to me that the last decade (2000-2009) was noticeably warmer than the one that preceded it (1990-1999). We are talking about climate, right? I don't think 8 years of data really says much about climate.

Maybe you can give us a link to the IPCC projection - it's projections actually - for the last 10 years. I'd like to have a look at that.



The 1997-1998 El Nino bumped temperatures up to a new warm level for the start of the 2000-2009 decade. The fact that it is the warmest in our current records says nothing about the current trend, which is flat.

"Maybe you can give us a link to the IPCC projection - it's projections actually - for the last 10 years. I'd like to have a look at that."

I don't think you really need me to get you that kind of info. I think you know quite well what the trends are forecasted to be for every decade in the 21st century.


NASA EarthObservatory

.Quoting hcubed...

"It appears that to some, the reading of a paper starts (and usually ends) with seeing the author (or where that author posts)".



That makes sense to me. Lots of sense.
If I wrote a paper tonight, claiming that the Climate was actually cooling, and stuck in a graph or two, it seems that you would accept it as Truth.
But other people, with good sense, would check my credentials, and ignore my paper.
Quite rightly too !

But you would say they were being biased and wrong.
Quoting caneswatch:


Evening PSL!




Nice, canes!


Thanks!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're neglecting to mention that the flat to cooling period from the 40's to 70's, was due mainly to our pollution, specifically sulfur dioxide emissions. Once we started combating acid run and scrubbing exhaust the sulfur dioxide content of the atmosphere dropped dramatically and the cooling effect went away.

For a more recent and drastic illustration of the effect of sulfur dioxide, you can see the results from the Pinatubo eruption which globally cooled world temperatures by about .5C . However, SO2 doesn't stay for long in the atmosphere as it readily combines with water vapor into acid rain.

This has several remarks on the subject: Link.

Since the developed nations have started reducing SO2 emissions, world SO2 levels have not increased. The SO2 currently in the atmosphere is masking additional warming we would see otherwise. This has led some to speculate that reintroduction of SO2 could be one of the "extreme" solutions to global warming, at the expense of acid rain.


The cause you mention of cooling/flattening between 1945 and 1977 has nothing to do with the current flattening trend during the last 10 years.
Quoting Levi32:


The cause you mention of cooling/flattening between 1945 and 1977 has nothing to do with the current flattening trend during the last 10 years.




Good evening, Levi.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Looking at a decade's worth of information isn't going to get you far climatological speaking. Sure, temperature's didn't move much, but 10 years is short enough to be affected by both positive and negative noise from short to medium scale phenomena, such as the PDO and El Nino/La Nina. It's too easy to choose ten year periods to show the effect you want (and both sides have done so, so I'm not just pointing the finger at skeptics). The longer the time period, the harder it is to do that. That's one of the reasons why scientist use 30 year periods or longer.

Over the past ten years temperatures didn't rise much. But we still had the warmest decade we've had yet. So what does that mean? While both statements contain valid observations, neither is particularly meaningful or useful in and of themselves. It's sort of like taking a quote out of context and trying to determine the point of the conversation.

As I've said before, single year anomalies and even a decade of anomalies don't provide much evidence one way or the other. That's still within the realms of normal variation.

I think the next decade will be very telling, barring any extreme events.



Again, nobody is trying to say 10 years of data disproves anything. It is simply "interesting," and it will be even more interesting to see if it continues. I agree that this decade could be very revealing.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Good evening, Levi.


Good evening.
Quoting pottery:
.Quoting hcubed...

"It appears that to some, the reading of a paper starts (and usually ends) with seeing the author (or where that author posts)".



That makes sense to me. Lots of sense.
If I wrote a paper tonight, claiming that the Climate was actually cooling, and stuck in a graph or two, it seems that you would accept it as Truth.
But other people, with good sense, would check my credentials, and ignore my paper.
Quite rightly too !

But you would say they were being biased and wrong.



Hey Pot, how it be?


Complete Update





Quoting Levi32:


Good evening.



I've enjoyed reading the exchanges tonight.


Civil discourse is cool.


Thanks, Bloggers!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The anomalies are based on the 1979-2010 mean, which includes three warm decades, including two of the warmest. That will, of course, reduce the anomalies.

If I were to show a graph of temperature anomalies, I would use the last 100 years of data. That way it would include the warmth of the 20's/30's, include several PDO cycles, along with several strong Nin* events.

Measuring warmth anomalies relative to the last three decades is sort of like measuring an upward incline when you're already standing on one.


And again, I don't care about 20th century anomalies when it comes to the post I made. I'll shift the graph up or down as much as you like. The point I was making was about the trend. The PDO is only just now going solidly cold in the last couple of years, and the AMO is still extremely warm. The ocean cycles don't quite yet support significant flattening/cooling, and given that CO2 is still increasing, the flattening is interesting to see. This decade will see the ocean multidecadal cycles come more into play, along with declining solar activity. We'll see how temperatures behave going forward.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Nice, canes!


Thanks!


Thanks and no problem!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thank you, for the most part.

For a study of Greenland, and it's historical changes, what else would one use for a proxy? True that he does try to use that proxy as a global indicator, when it may not be representative. (Though multiple proxies confirm *some* of the temperature swings discussed.)

And the proxy I scoff at is, primarily, tree rings. Ice cores do have their limitations and uncertainty, but are far better than tree rings.

He did not say that CO2 did not change. As you correctly point out, CO2 will always change when temperature does. He did say numerous times than the temperature changes were not "caused by" or "preceded by" CO2 changes.

As to the 40s to 70s, correct. He did leave out the aerosol negative feedback. Before that he asked: "If CO2 is the cause of global warming, why did temperatures rise for 30 years (1915-1945) with no significant increase in CO2?"

All of the above does not take away the past rapid and extensive temperature swings in Greenland nor how insignificant recent changes appear, in comparison.

As for the rest of your points, they appear to be about another topic.


Did ya happen to gain access to this? I have not yet, but it is certainly interesting.

Cosmic rays contribute 40 p.c. to global warming: study

Reminds me of a vid from some credentialed folks from a couple years ago :) gnight all ! out>>>>>

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Hey Pot, how it be?



It be Good.
Currently 71F, with clear sky and a Moon coming up in the trees...
Getting ready for sleep!
After one more (probably the last) minor C-class solar flare from the only sunspot group on the solar disc at the moment, the sun is sinking back to minimal activity levels once again.

267. JRRP
Link
GFS temp
Quoting pottery:

It be Good.
Currently 71F, with clear sky and a Moon coming up in the trees...
Getting ready for sleep!




Glad to hear it. You paint a nice picture.
Quoting Levi32:
After one more (probably the last) minor C-class solar flare from the only sunspot group on the solar disc at the moment, the sun is sinking back to minimal activity levels once again.



A butterfly tool that is to wide to post :)

From here ~~ http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

This is the graphic from there~~

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
Some locations about to cross into better than 2.5 inches of rainfall since this morning, here.



Already beyond that in some places:


Catching up on our missing winter rainfall...
Quoting FLWaterFront:
I wonder if the Storm Prediction Center will upgrade the severe wx risk from slight to moderate over a part of the FL peninsula by tomorrow?

I cannot recall the last time that happened but it probably has been at least ten years since it did. It always does seem as if the NWS SPC is a bit on the conservative side with those forecasts, however. Even in the heart of "tornado alley" they rarely ever issue a high risk potential for any forecast area, for example.



The SPC does seem to be conservative with severe weather events in Florida though. Considering severe weather frequency tops just as high as tornado alley. The only difference is Florida gets mostly weak tornados and fairly small in the hail department. However, in terms of numbers, we get higher tornado density then in any other state. Severe wind events, torrential rain bursts, and of course lightning also put Florida at the top for severe weather numbers.


That being said, I have a likely answer as to why the Moderate risk is rare here. The likely candidate is that the SPC bases their forecasts on forecasting low pressure systems. First of all, typically January to March is usually the only time of year that the ingredients come together for a frontal system based severe weather event. But it is the dry season, so conditions are not always favorable for severe weather event. But even though its the dry season, it isn't desert dry, and if the the southern stream jet becomes very active, it then allows for massive amounts of moisture to fuse with strong shear and upper level energy and lift from the low pressure system to produce severe weather event.

More then often though, because it is winter, there is usually at least one ingredient missing that keeps it below moderate risk values.

Most severe weather in Florida comes during the summer and because it is a daily pop-up thunderstorm pattern that leads to the most severe weather in Florida. It is not an organized event and therefore pinpointing if and when, as well as how much severe weather will occur just really isn't practical, and neither would it be accurate either.


However, we have had occasionally serious severe weather events this time year in Florida that have resulted in significant wind damage from straight line winds/ and or tornadoes. I'm pretty sure we actually did have a moderate risk last year thanks to El Nino as a matter of fact.

The moderate risk is more common in north and central Florida than in southern Florida, due to the fact that low pressure systems typically divert most upper support to the north of south Florida. A moderate risk is quite rare in south Florida because of this, despite that severe weather is common in south Florida, in terms of recorded events.
Quoting caneswatch:



Smiling.


Thanks, canes. Cool!
Quoting Ossqss:
271 and 273 , you are keeping me up , LOL !!





LOL.

Thanks, Oss.


Good tune!
I won't be surprised if the SPC does upgrade to Moderate tomorrow, but I won't be shocked if they don't. Thank God we don't have the upper low moving right over head too, or it would likely warrant a high risk.

The main inhibiting factors to an outbreak will be weak surface instability, thanks to very cold water temps surrounding Florida. Also, as I said, the upper low will be lagging behind the squall line and surface low. Typically severe weather outbreaks at Moderate or High risk have the cold pool upper low traveling right overhead.

Even still, Mid-level temps will be plenty cold enough when you add the fact that a strong low level jet will be funneling in a warm and extremely humid air mass for January with PWATS approaching 2 inches.


Personally, I don't think its gonna be a highly destructive outbreak,( lets hope) but the potential still exists for it to be so. Weather sometimes ignores the missing factor that us weather people feel is needed.



What I believe, is if the SPC upgrades to Moderate risk, its time to start praying that we don't another deadly tornado event like we have had in Central Florida several times before. If it stays at slight risk, we will probably still see some severe weather, and we need to still watch for tornadoes, but not something to panic about.


Hopefully it will just be a real exciting storm, and nobody gets hurt or have their lives ruined by tornadoes.




LOL. At least when the tunes take over the blog, no one gets hurt!


Thanks, DAM.
Quoting caneswatch:


No problem. Sorry ossqss, there's more LOL




Love that one.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Love that one.


A personal favorite. Listened to it since I was 9, and have never stopped.
Uhhhggg.Accuweather is trying to shove their damn "Rest of the winter forecast" down peoples throat as if they care anymore.They were already wrong about the first half of winter.What happend to"january should be 1 to 2 degress above average".Oh gee well that certainly didn't turn out true.Insted the oppisite has occured.People are freezing their behinds off.And now they changed it to"January should be the coldest since the 80's".Hypeuweather stop trying to hype things.
Quoting pottery:
.Quoting hcubed...

"It appears that to some, the reading of a paper starts (and usually ends) with seeing the author (or where that author posts)".



That makes sense to me. Lots of sense.
If I wrote a paper tonight, claiming that the Climate was actually cooling, and stuck in a graph or two, it seems that you would accept it as Truth.
But other people, with good sense, would check my credentials, and ignore my paper.
Quite rightly too !

But you would say they were being biased and wrong.


No, I don't think so.

You should look at a scientist's past papers (and problems associated with their past papers), before you believe new papers.

I don't think that ANY scientist should get a automatic ignore or a free pass simply because of their name.

Dispute the papers, not the scientist.
I think now might be a good time to say hello...been trying very hard to get into the hurricane discussions last season...and the one before. Weather is a hobby of mine so i'll "break the ice"...HELLO!
I kept repeating it on the blog several times in early september,that we were going to have a cold winter coming,and that's even before accuweather..Opps I'm sorry "Hypeuweather" was shoving their forecast in peoples throat.But what supported these 1.We (at that time)had a moderate La nina 2.We have a cold PDO. 3.The NAO was forecasted tostay negative,and 5.Nature was already pointing to the signs.
Quoting TropicThunder:
I think now might be a good time to say hello...been trying very hard to get into the hurricane discussions last season...and the one before. Weather is a hobby of mine so i'll "break the ice"...HELLO!
HELLO!!.


Hope springs, eternal.

Thanks for the comradery.

G'night, folks.
According to Melbourne NWS Forecast Office there is a

"THREAT OF FAST MOVING SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES"

Still waiting for SPC to update Severe Weather Outlook...NWS MLB also issued a Public Information Statement regarding Nighttime Tornadoes which can be read here:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MLB&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&gloss ary=1

Any thoughts??
296. xcool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99o8HXAXndk

Once again, extreme weather grips the U.S. during this active winter season

by ImpactWeather,
Quoting Jedkins01:
I won't be surprised if the SPC does upgrade to Moderate tomorrow, but I won't be shocked if they don't. Thank God we don't have the upper low moving right over head too, or it would likely warrant a high risk.

The main inhibiting factors to an outbreak will be weak surface instability, thanks to very cold water temps surrounding Florida. Also, as I said, the upper low will be lagging behind the squall line and surface low. Typically severe weather outbreaks at Moderate or High risk have the cold pool upper low traveling right overhead.

Even still, Mid-level temps will be plenty cold enough when you add the fact that a strong low level jet will be funneling in a warm and extremely humid air mass for January with PWATS approaching 2 inches.


Personally, I don't think its gonna be a highly destructive outbreak,( lets hope) but the potential still exists for it to be so. Weather sometimes ignores the missing factor that us weather people feel is needed.



What I believe, is if the SPC upgrades to Moderate risk, its time to start praying that we don't another deadly tornado event like we have had in Central Florida several times before. If it stays at slight risk, we will probably still see some severe weather, and we need to still watch for tornadoes, but not something to panic about.


Hopefully it will just be a real exciting storm, and nobody gets hurt or have their lives ruined by tornadoes.


Thank you for your detailed responses to my comment/question, and your excellent analyses!

One thing though, I have gotten the impression from the local TV mets here in the Tampa Bay area that the upper level low is expected to catch up to and converge with the surface low pressure system. I am probably wrong in my impression but that is what they seemed to be saying.
Quoting TropicThunder:
According to Melbourne NWS Forecast Office there is a

"THREAT OF FAST MOVING SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES"

Still waiting for SPC to update Severe Weather Outlook...NWS MLB also issued a Public Information Statement regarding Nighttime Tornadoes which can be read here:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MLB&product=PNS&format=CI& ;version=1&gloss ary=1

Any thoughts??


The potential for "long track tornadoes" is another thing that you do not often see in a Florida forecast. If it were Kansas in May then it would be business as usual but Florida? Not so much.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Uhhhggg.Accuweather is trying to shove their damn "Rest of the winter forecast" down peoples throat as if they care anymore.They were already wrong about the first half of winter.What happend to"january should be 1 to 2 degress above average".Oh gee well that certainly didn't turn out true.Insted the oppisite has occured.People are freezing their behinds off.And now they changed it to"January should be the coldest since the 80's".Hypeuweather stop trying to hype things.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I kept repeating it on the blog several times in early september,that we were going to have a cold winter coming,and that's even before accuweather..Opps I'm sorry "Hypeuweather" was shoving their forecast in peoples throat.But what supported these 1.We (at that time)had a moderate La nina 2.We have a cold PDO. 3.The NAO was forecasted tostay negative,and 5.Nature was already pointing to the signs.


It was a forecast. They are sometimes wrong, sometimes right, and never perfect. NOAA completely failed on last summer's forecast.

And your first two reasons of a La Nina and a cold PDO actually point towards a warm winter.
Interesting map of sulfur dioxide levels over comparably-sized regions circa 2005-2007.
Xyrus2000 "You're neglecting to mention that the flat to cooling period from the 40's to 70's, was due mainly to our pollution, specifically sulfur dioxide emissions...
...The SO2 currently in the atmosphere is masking additional warming we would see otherwise...
"

255 Levi32 "The cause you mention of cooling/flattening between 1945 and 1977 has nothing to do with the current flattening trend during the last 10 years."

You haven't been paying attention to news from China and India. Sulfur dioxide emissions peaked circa 1990, then began falling (mostly due to the collapse of the Russian and former SovietBloc economies).
However while those nations' industrial pollution fell, China's (then India's) industrial output began booming. By 2002, total SO2 emissions began climbing again.
China became the largest consumer of fossil fuels, and the greatest emitter of sulfur dioxide. Increasing at an average rate of ~7.3% per year, it has doubled its emissions during the past 9years.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
18:00 PM FST January 25 2011
===================================

Warnings for Tonga
======================

A Gale Wind Warning is now in force for Ata

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for 'Eua, Tongatapu, and Ha'apai group

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================

A Gale Warning is in force for Fulaga, Ogea, Vatoa, Ono-I-Lau, and nearby smaller islands.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 21.5S 177.2W has 10 minute winds of 70 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 20 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle and 60 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================
Cyclone has intensified over the last 24 hours. Primary band tightly wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and south but restricted elsewhere. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a weak sheared environment along the forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on enhanced infrared radar eye pattern with DG eye LG surrounding yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models move cyclone WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 23.0S 179.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.1S 177.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 25.8S 173.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Wilma has become much better organized over the last few hours.
(rant on)
Local JAX NWS did not even have an HWO on their forecast page at 10pm last night! I told co-workers, it'd gonna be a stormy day, get ready your weather radios and they are like, but it's just supposta rain.

Oh and NOW- - NOW the local NWS page has severe written everywhere!! Why did they not keep up with Tampa and Melbourne? Tampa and Melbourne had been touching on the severe potential since Sunday.

I think my "local" NWS mets have been outsourced....to like Utah, or the moon, or something.

grrrrrr
This is only very tangentially related to weather--and barely that--but I thought it was something nice to watch in the morning. Click in the frame and move the mouse around to get a 360-degree view of everywhere (but straight up) while it's playing. Best viewed full screen. (Bonus: a nice version of Cohen's "Hallelujah" as soundtrack.)

http://www.northstudio360.com/portfolio/nimmo-bay-helicopter-adventure-resort-360-video
oh hi Nea...there was no coffee made, I'm mad at my local NWS, and now I have motion sickness.

(staggers away from blog, bounces into wall...)
Geez, aquak, u r not having a really great morning, are u..... hope the coffee thing changes.... if nothing else does....

hello baha- a goodmorning from you, makes it all better :)

poor Nea does not realize that he has embedded a running video. He's probably in the shower right now thinking "hmmmm...did I?"
309. IKE
He's probably in the shower thinking....GW...GW....GW....
hi ike

gotta run- 16 hour day today (sigh)

peace ya'll
@ aquak... same here on the 16 hours.... however, today I may actually be able to check in 1ce or 2ice... lol

Ya'll have a good one...
Oh and special morning to Ike...
Re: 305

That's really cool Nea.
314. IKE
Morning.

Rain outside and 49.5.
Quoting aquak9:
(rant on)
Local JAX NWS did not even have an HWO on their forecast page at 10pm last night! I told co-workers, it'd gonna be a stormy day, get ready your weather radios and they are like, but it's just supposta rain.

Oh and NOW- - NOW the local NWS page has severe written everywhere!! Why did they not keep up with Tampa and Melbourne? Tampa and Melbourne had been touching on the severe potential since Sunday.

I think my "local" NWS mets have been outsourced....to like Utah, or the moon, or something.

grrrrrr



lol its probably because they were playing it lazy or way too conservative, but you know, when the main prediction office is calling for severe weather, they were kinda forced to now at the last minute :)


honestly though, I've seen these systems pan out many times, more than likely, The I-4 corridor starting with me will get wacked, but Jacksonville will probably miss the strong storms.

That's just something to keep in mind, I'm not actually forecasting that though, lol
..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY. THE SQUALL LINE
SHOULD REACH THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THIS EVENING...AND PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE
SQUALL LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AS EARLY
AS MID AFTERNOON...A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR LARGE LONG TRACK
TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE.
THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT WILL EXTEND
FROM 5 PM TO 5 AM. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 50 MPH.
NWS MLB

.

It's not too often NWS MLB use the terms "large long track tornadoes"

Maybe they have a transfer from Oklahoma? :-p

--
2007 Groundhog Day tornado outbreak
--
Quoting IKE:
He's probably in the shower thinking....GW...GW....GW....

I think about a lot of things in the shower...but GW isn't one of them... ;-)

Wait--why would I be thinking about George Washington while I'm in the shower?
318. IKE
"""I think about a lot of things in the shower...but GW isn't one of them... ;-)"""....

Glad to know that:)

Rain is about over, for now, for my area. I had .16 inches of rain. Forecasted to have between 1-2 inches. Looks unlikely.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
440 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260045-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
440 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
STORMS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

WIND: STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY TODAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS.

WAVES: SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER BOUT OF COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
...WITH EVEN
MID TO UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
The information for doesn't sound so bad compared to what they are saying on the east coast.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THEN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
INTO THE EAST GULF AND THEN CROSSING THE STATE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE TIME OF GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT...AS A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED FORM THE IN THE EAST GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION THESE STORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. STORMS WILL BE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

I guess the meteorolgist calling it "Tornado Tuesday" may be wrong for our area.
321. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY
AS REALITY IS DISAGREEING GREATLY WITH THE FORECAST MODELS. WHILE
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE LA
COAST...IT HAS NOT BEEN NEAR HAS HEAVY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AND
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS DECREASING. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS IS
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH HAS BEEN MORE RAPID IN ITS EASTERLY
MOVEMENT THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
THE SUBSIDENCE ON ITS PERIPHERY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DECREASE
IN RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT
HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHILE FRONTOGENESIS HAS
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF IS NOT AS TIGHT...WHICH CAN BE SEEN BY LACKLUSTER WINDS
OFFSHORE COMPARED TO MODEL FORECASTS.

RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
CATEGORICAL POPS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...WILL ERR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR NOW AND KEEP HIGH POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING (THROUGH 15Z). THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE
LA COAST THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THIS INCREASE IN FRONTOGENIC
FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
THROUGH MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE
ABOVE 850 MB RAPIDLY DRIES OUT BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...AND ALL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WITH BY NOON AND EVEN SOONER OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK OUT COULD BE JUST INLAND
OR JUST OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE RAPID CLEARING OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER...WHICH MAY HELP THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR HIGHS...EXCEPT THE FAR NW CWA. LIKELY TO SEE A LARGE SPREAD IN
HIGHS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
COAST.

Morning!

Patrap, what is that single point in the gulf that seems to be putting up a HUGE moisture plume. Is someone seeding the clouds from a boat? The narrow stream of clouds looks so odd.
The clouds come down to a fine, low level, point.
Is it just a sharp frontal boundary?
324. Jax82
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
515 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS RAINFALL MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAINT AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE LINE.


THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

325. Jax82
FYI
Just isotropic Lift at the Base of the The System,..

No Boat involved.

Unless itsa very BIG Boat.
. . .

Goin' green.
Quoting aspectre:
Xyrus2000 "You're neglecting to mention that the flat to cooling period from the 40's to 70's, was due mainly to our pollution, specifically sulfur dioxide emissions...
...The SO2 currently in the atmosphere is masking additional warming we would see otherwise...
"

255 Levi32 "The cause you mention of cooling/flattening between 1945 and 1977 has nothing to do with the current flattening trend during the last 10 years."

You haven't been paying attention to news from China and India. Sulfur dioxide emissions peaked circa 1990, then began falling (mostly due to the collapse of the Russian and former SovietBloc economies).
However while those nations' industrial pollution fell, China's (then India's) industrial output began booming. By 2002, total SO2 emissions began climbing again.
China became the largest consumer of fossil fuels, and the greatest emitter of sulfur dioxide. Increasing at an average rate of ~7.3% per year, it has doubled its emissions during the past 9years.


Levi is still spewing nonsense when he claims that global temperatures have been cooling (or not warming) over the past 10 years:




Seems like he still thinks that it is 2008:



Also:



The strongest La Niña on record?

The SOI values confirm that we are in the middle of either the strongest La Niña event on record, or the second strongest. The SOI values for October 2010 and December 2010 were each the largest positive values on record for those months, as was the three-month average October-December 2010. If we take a longer perspective (July-December) then 1917 was stronger than 2010, but 2010 was still the second strongest in the historical record. Using either the October-December or the longer July-December periods, the strong La Niña events on 1973 and 1975 were both ranked as weaker than the 2010 event.

330. eddye
so u people expect severe weather in south florida tonight
Look at all the pretty colors!

Sorry.

The sbcape over Central Florida isn't all that impressive, but I see sunlight here in Melbourne so daytime heating is getting started. I imagine we won't get a better picture on how all of the ingredients are going to come together until late this afternoon.
332. IKE
...
This might as well be from millions of years in the future (but change volcanoes to humans; millions of years because that would be when a human-like species evolves again):

Earth’s greatest mass extinction caused by coal: study

About 250 million years about 95 per cent of life was wiped out in the sea and 70 per cent on land. Researchers at the University of Calgary believe they have discovered evidence to support massive volcanic eruptions burnt significant volumes of coal, producing ash clouds that had broad impact on global oceans.

Unlike the end of the dinosaurs, 65 million years ago—where there is widespread belief that the impact of a meteorite was at least the partial cause—it is unclear what caused the late Permian extinction. Previous researchers have suggested massive volcanic eruptions through coal beds in Siberia would generate significant greenhouse gases causing run away global warming.

“Our research is the first to show direct evidence that massive volcanic eruptions—the largest the world has ever witnessed—caused massive coal combustion thus supporting models for significant generation of greenhouse gases at this time,” says Grasby.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Levi is still spewing nonsense when he claims that global temperatures have been cooling (or not warming) over the past 10 years:




Seems like he still thinks that it is 2008:



Also:



The strongest La Nia on record?

The SOI values confirm that we are in the middle of either the strongest La Nia event on record, or the second strongest. The SOI values for October 2010 and December 2010 were each the largest positive values on record for those months, as was the three-month average October-December 2010. If we take a longer perspective (July-December) then 1917 was stronger than 2010, but 2010 was still the second strongest in the historical record. Using either the October-December or the longer July-December periods, the strong La Nia events on 1973 and 1975 were both ranked as weaker than the 2010 event.



Takes a while for the planet to cool off after a very strong El Nino and record temperatures. Expect a continued decline for the rest of the year.

With the cold anomalies in the Pacific, the earth will cool down some more this year. Just takes some time.
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


336. beell
Quoting FLdewey:
Look at all the pretty colors!

Sorry.

The sbcape over Central Florida isn't all that impressive, but I see sunlight here in Melbourne so daytime heating is getting started. I imagine we won't get a better picture on how all of the ingredients are going to come together until late this afternoon.


Mixed layer CAPE (MLCAPE)is probably a better parameter to look at. Mix up the lowest 100mb of atmosphere and you get a better sense of the instability that is actually available to the updraft. Kinda takes into account any cooler more stable air at the surface.
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI




"Here I come, I come, I come, I come....."
Quoting beell:


Mixed layer CAPE (MLCAPE)is probably a better parameter to look at. Mix up the lowest 100mb of atmosphere and you get a better sense of the instability that is actually available to the updraft. Kinda takes into account any cooler more stabe air at the surface.
forecasted MLCAPE for 3 pm EST:



(Peak of just under 1000 on the peninsula)
339. Inyo
RE: extreme floods and droughts, don't forget that these aren't necessarily just increasing due to climate change. As watersheds become more and more degraded, we can expect more floods and droughts, regardless of what the climate does. I know I sound like a broken record here but... it's important to think of things in terms of more than one factor!
Quoting Inyo:
RE: extreme floods and droughts, don't forget that these aren't necessarily just increasing due to climate change. As watersheds become more and more degraded, we can expect more floods and droughts, regardless of what the climate does. I know I sound like a broken record here but... it's important to think of things in terms of more than one factor!


Hey, I hear you. I'd love to see the government start some of volunteer/only way to maintain long term unemployment payments /etc scheme to re-plant and just clean up the US - from inner cities to outer farms.
341. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
735 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

.UPDATE...A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON RADAR CONTINUES TO BE
NOTED. DUE TO THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA.
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST CLOSE TO OUR COASTLINE...WILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS...PRIMARILY THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NW ZONES AS RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
RAIN MOVING EAST OUT OF SW MS. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT FURTHER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP DECREASES
EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ALREADY SENT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
SCOREBOARD...MOTHER NATURE 1...MODEL GUIDANCE 0. 34/JFB
Quoting biff4ugo:
Morning!

Patrap, what is that single point in the gulf that seems to be putting up a HUGE moisture plume. Is someone seeding the clouds from a boat? The narrow stream of clouds looks so odd.
The clouds come down to a fine, low level, point.
Is it just a sharp frontal boundary?
I was wondering that as well. I think I've read that contrails can actually create microweather - but I think that is too large and persistent for soemthing like that effect.
343. Inyo
Quoting greentortuloni:


Hey, I hear you. I'd love to see the government start some of volunteer/only way to maintain long term unemployment payments /etc scheme to re-plant and just clean up the US - from inner cities to outer farms.


Yeah, there are people doing good work out there, but not nearly as much as needs to be done. We just have to do it wisely, because a poorly-thought out project can be even worse than nothing. We are still dealing with many of these: invasive species introduced for erosion control that actually increase erosion; channelized rivers that don't reduce flooding; drained wetlands; inappropriately placed/built dams, etc etc etc
Itsa Tangerine Weather
Quoting Inyo:
RE: extreme floods and droughts, don't forget that these aren't necessarily just increasing due to climate change. As watersheds become more and more degraded, we can expect more floods and droughts, regardless of what the climate does. I know I sound like a broken record here but... it's important to think of things in terms of more than one factor!
Well, broken record time, here, too. I agree completely.

Dams causing sediment deposition upstream of where it should, depleting sediment downstream. Us cementing the walls of tributaries. Us building structures to prevent flooding in floodplains only means that flooding will occur somewhere that it shouldn't.

We cause most of the flooding and the wetland erosion (in active delta areas)...

All the while, someone will say that water levels are at record highs, or flooding exceeded highest levels ever, or, such and such a place has never flooded before, etc. The cause? AGW over the last 100 years, of course. (Anthropogenic Gradual change of the Watersheds)
346. IKE
84 hour 12Z NAM shows a high over the northern GOM. Looks like a nice weekend coming up...weather wise...


347. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows a high over the northern GOM this weekend too.....


Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, broken record time, here, too. I agree completely.

Dams causing sediment deposition upstream of where it should, depleting sediment downstream. Us cementing the walls of tributaries. Us building structures to prevent flooding in floodplains only means that flooding will occur somewhere that it shouldn't.

We cause most of the flooding and the wetland erosion (in active delta areas)...

All the while, someone will say that water levels are at record highs, or flooding exceeded highest levels ever, or, such and such a place has never flooded before, etc. The cause? AGW over the last 100 years, of course. (Anthropogenic Gradual change of the Watersheds)


Add to that the massive increase of population next to the water, and those floods are becoming more destructive.

More people, more homes, more crops close by - all wiped out by those natural floods.

Some of the rivers in Asia have flooded thousands of times over the past 1000 years.
New Blog...
Quoting RipplinH2O:
New Blog...


Oh thank the Lord!