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Is the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:45 PM GMT on November 08, 2010

Hurricane Tomas is gone, and good riddance to this deadly late-season storm that hit the southern Lesser Antilles and Haiti hard. While Tomas thankfully spared Haiti a flooding catastrophe, it may yet cause heavy loss in that beleaguered nation by worsening their cholera epidemic, which has already claimed over 500 lives. So, with Tomas gone, are we all done for 2010? Or will this third-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a twentieth named storm, Tropical Storm Virginie?


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, seven of the fifteen years have seen an Atlantic named storm form after November 8: 2007 (Tropical Storm Olga on December 11), 2005 (the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), 2004 (Tropical Storm Otto on November 29), 2003 (Odette and Peter in December), 2001 (Hurricane Olga on November 24), 1999 (Hurricane Lenny on November 14), 1998 (Hurricane Nicole on November 24), and 1996 (Hurricane Marco on November 19). Only two of these storms caused loss of life: Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic, and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was the only major hurricane of these very late season storms.


Figure 2. Wind shear forecast for November 24, 2010, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 8, 2010 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) over a small region of the Central Caribbean. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the subtropical jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season. The odds of a significant storm that causes loss of life are much lower, less than 15%. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest October on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 0.95°C above average during October, beating the previous record of 0.93°C set in October 2003. Wind shear will also be low enough in the Caribbean to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 2.) However, the subtropical jet stream is forecast to slowly edge southwards over the next few weeks, in keeping with its usual seasonal cycle. The Caribbean will gradually see wind shear increase, until only the extreme southern Caribbean near the coast of Panama can support tropical storm formation. Taking all these factors into account, I believe we are all done this hurricane season with dangerous storms capable of causing loss of life. The latest long-range runs of the GFS and ECMWF models don't hint at anything developing over the next seven days, and I give a 30% chance we will see one more inconsequential named storm, which will not cause loss of life if it forms.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters
Limonade (Haiti)
Limonade (Haiti)
Les habitants en proie à l'inondation de Bord de mer de Limonade (Haiti) le dimacche 7 Novembre 2010

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. That seems like good news!
Season is over! Even Drake says "It's Over"!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lTB1pIg1y0
Taking all these factors into account, I believe we are all done this hurricane season with dangerous storms capable of causing loss of life. ........

Great news doc! Have a nice Monday!
Thanks Dr. Masters,
Great update,50% chance 2010 Hurricaine season is over...I can live with that!!!
Thanks Jeff,
v/r
Moe
Quoting Grand Master M:
So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season.


Twas a bit of a snooze fest... time to start closing up shop. Thanks for das update.
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
...judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season... [however,] taking all these factors into account, I believe we are all done this hurricane season with dangerous storms capable of causing loss of life.

I'll drink to that. ;-)
Quoting surfmom:
...ain't nothing better then see that map swirl-less

I'll have to disagree with you on that. The reason I'm even on this site is my fascination tropical weather. I love watching TCs form; I enjoy testing my (admittedly minimal) hurricane forecasting skills against the experts; I admire the awesome sight of an Igor thrashing away at peak somewhere over the open water; I like to spend spare hours crunching the seasonal stats. And, I'll openly admit, there's always a bit of a letdown for me as each season winds down (as they always do); much as I like weather, I get little enjoyment out of watching a cold, cyclone-less Atlantic.

Now, my attitude doesn't in any way imply that I wish to see landfalling storms, especially in populated areas, and even more so in impoverished populated areas. Been there, done that, helped clean up the mess--and more than once. I suppose some on here do want to see them, and that's their prerogative, but it's not a mindset I happen to share.

Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days and 14 hours until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)
Great analogy.. do the cars go around the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere?
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll drink to that. ;-)

I'll have to disagree with you on that. The reason I'm even on this site is my fascination tropical weather. I love watching TCs form; I enjoy testing my (admittedly minimal) hurricane forecasting skills against the experts; I admire the awesome sight of an Igor thrashing away at peak somewhere over the open water; I like to spend spare hours crunching the seasonal stats. And, I'll openly admit, there's always a bit of a letdown for me as each season winds down (as they always do); much as I like weather, I get little enjoyment out of watching a cold, cyclone-less Atlantic.

Now, my attitude doesn't in any way imply that I wish to see landfalling storms, especially in populated areas, and even more so in impoverished populated areas. Been there, done that, helped clean up the mess--and more than once. I suppose some on here do want to see them, and that's their prerogative, but it's not a mindset I happen to share.

Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days and 14 hours until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)
a very good update Dr Masters, and history has faught us well. Recently Tomas was the first storm to form south of 12N east of 60W in late october.now i am looking at a build up of convection with some cyclonic turning near 9N 47W. could this be another turn in history and climatollogy
A thrilling ride it has been this season and the numbers predicted at the beginning of the season panned out. A job well done all around this year on predicting the number of storms, and thankfully a poor job was done by predicting many storms to hit the CONUS!
Quoting WXTXN:
Great analogy.. do the cars go around the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere?

Ha! No...but--on a somewhat related note--it appears that "Mexican" (stadium crowd) waves tend to run counter-clockwise in the southern hemisphere with far greater frequency than they do in the northern.

Coincidence? :-)
No coincidence - we are mostly H2O.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll drink to that. ;-)



Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days and 14 hours until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)


While clear and understandable, I don't that your analogy works as well in practice. Formula One has not had a fatality since 1994, at Imola in May of that year. A fair number of posters on this blog weren't old enough to read then. F1 starts a period of unprecedented safety and just as an active cycle of the Atlantic hurricane season begins? Coincidence or conspriracy? You decide. (Yes, I'm kidding.)

I have 3/4" plywood cut to fit my windows on my brick home. They have to fit inside the brick casing (?) and they were a bear to cut and trim when preparing for Ivan. Not having slept for 3 days made it tougher - at least many of the basic decisions regarding all that dont' have to be repeated. The first time those boards came down after that storm I felt exhaustion and relief - and hoped it would be another 7 seasons (the time we had owned the house) before I needed them again. It wasn't - they all went up for Dennis in July following year, and again for Katrina. I used to be quite fascinated with hurricane formation and watching the big storms wrap up - I still am, but it is very much a reality/subsequent action based attentiveness. You don't just watch the computer, you think about putting it somewhere where, if the roof leaks, it would be protected. So, the longer those boards sit and the hardware gathers dust, the better, because I don't like it when the maps plot things toward my home.

So, while the temps outside are unseasonably cool once again, and the water temps in the Gulf fall dramatically and the shear continues upward, I bid a fond good riddance to a threatening season that had impact far below it's potential. Our local soothsayers said this would be our year for a bad storm - it wasn't. The only other good thing about this La Nina year is it has to end, maybe next season will transition into El Nino!

Best Regards,

Jeff
16. JRRP
The season has started ?
Last full ASCAT (that I saw) showed clean spin. Tomas keeps going and going...
TropicalStormTomas
6Nov 12pmGMT - 22.6n70.9w - 60knots(~111.1km/h) - 990mb - ATCF
H.Tomas
6Nov 06pmGMT - 23.8n70.3w - 65knots(~120.4km/h) - 988mb - ATCF
7Nov 12amGMT - 24.9n69.7w - 70knots(~129.6km/h) - 987mb - ATCF
7Nov 06amGMT - 25.3n69.6w - 65knots(~120.4km/h) - 993mb - ATCF
TropicalStormTomas
7Nov 12pmGMT - 25.8n69.6w - 60knots(~111.1km/h) - 992mb - ATCF
7Nov 06pmGMT - 26.0n69.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 999mb - ATCF
ExtraTropicalStormTomas
8Nov 12amGMT - 26.0n68.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 999mb - ATCF
8Nov 06amGMT - 25.8n67.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 999mb - ATCF
8Nov 12pmGMT - 25.6n66.2w - 45knots_(~83.3km/h) - 999mb - ATCF

Copy&paste 22.6n70.9w, 23.8n70.3w, 24.9n69.7w, 25.3n69.6w, 25.8n69.6w-26.0n69.5w, 26.0n69.5w-26.0n68.5w, 26.0n68.5w-25.8n67.5w, 25.8n67.5w-25.6n66.2w, mbj, fdf, 23.4n54.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the directions and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the six hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~11days to Bompetok,SierraLeone
Copy&paste 25.8n67.5w-25.6n66.2w, cbj, fna, 25.6n66.2w-7.81n12.85w into the GreatCircleMapper ifn ya wanna looksee.
Quoting MahFL:
The season has started ?
.lol
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
Good coverage Jason, but where are you located?
A person could wonder just how in the world an NOAA official could imagine that it is part of her job description to try to tell a website what it should and should not be publishing regarding the safety of gulf seafood.

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/noaas-lead-public-affairs-officer-demanded-website-withdraw-story

A U.S. government spokesperson reacted sharply today to an EIN news story questioning the safety of gulf seafood, saying “the veracity of the federal government seafood safety protocol or results are not in question by any qualified scientist.” EINNEWS said it stands by its story.

The official, Christine Patrick, the lead public affairs officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, demanded that EINNEWS withdraw its story. …

But contrary to Ms Patrick’s claim that “the results are not in question by any qualified scientist,” the scientific community has expressed concerns that the federal government has been too quick to help the Gulf fishery get back on its feet after the massive BP oil spill. …

Based on available literature EINNEWS supports its original story, will not withdraw it, and invites members of the scientific community to offer their opinions.

Some of EIN’s examples:

* The DOSS safety “threshold” itself is controversial among scientists and represents a compromise with many authorities who believe it should be higher.
* The Environmental Protection Agency asked BP to stop using the dispersant Corexit 9527′s because of short and long term concerns about its toxicity. … Despite the EPA’s concerns, Corexit 9527 was used until supplies ran out, and then was replaced with Corexit 9500.
* The dispersants are known to kill incubating sea life.
* In humans, long-term exposure can cause central nervous system problems or damage blood, kidneys or livers, according to the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention.
* The FDA-NOAA statement made no mention of tests for PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). These are cancer-causing chemicals in crude oil and can be taken in through fish and shellfish. A recent assessment of long term effects of the Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska’s Prince William Sound concluded that that chemically dispersed oil was far more toxic than physically dispersed oil and that PAH in the water column was the primary cause.
* The FDA-NOAA statement also failed to discuss the heavy metals found in oil itself. Heavy metals are trace contaminants in the crude oil, but they bioaccumulate up the food chain. Larger, predator fish could potentially pick up a significant amount of heavy metals from the oil contaminants, and mercury and lead are toxic to the brain and nervous system.
* Many scientists are concerned that levels of some of these chemicals will increase through the food chain over time, resulting in worse problems with food safety several years from now.


(truncated)
Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport
Last Update on 08 Nov 6:53 MST


Lt Snow, Fog

34°F
(1°C) Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 MPH

Barometer: 29.78 in (1007.70 mb)
Dewpoint: 32°F (0°C)
Wind Chill: 25°F (-4°C)
Visibility: 4.00 Miles


I know is late in the season but the little system at 15N, 73W showing some spinning, we need to keep and eye on it...
Quoting Fluid:
A person could wonder just how in the world an NOAA official could imagine that it is part of her job description to try to tell a website what it should and should not be publishing regarding the safety of gulf seafood.

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/noaas-lead-public-affairs-officer-demanded-website-withdraw-story

A U.S. government spokesperson reacted sharply today to an EIN news story questioning the safety of gulf seafood, saying “the veracity of the federal government seafood safety protocol or results are not in question by any qualified scientist.” EINNEWS said it stands by its story.

The official, Christine Patrick, the lead public affairs officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, demanded that EINNEWS withdraw its story. …

But contrary to Ms Patrick’s claim that “the results are not in question by any qualified scientist,” the scientific community has expressed concerns that the federal government has been too quick to help the Gulf fishery get back on its feet after the massive BP oil spill. …

Based on available literature EINNEWS supports its original story, will not withdraw it, and invites members of the scientific community to offer their opinions.

Some of EIN’s examples:

* The DOSS safety “threshold” itself is controversial among scientists and represents a compromise with many authorities who believe it should be higher.
* The Environmental Protection Agency asked BP to stop using the dispersant Corexit 9527′s because of short and long term concerns about its toxicity. … Despite the EPA’s concerns, Corexit 9527 was used until supplies ran out, and then was replaced with Corexit 9500.
* The dispersants are known to kill incubating sea life.
* In humans, long-term exposure can cause central nervous system problems or damage blood, kidneys or livers, according to the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention.
* The FDA-NOAA statement made no mention of tests for PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). These are cancer-causing chemicals in crude oil and can be taken in through fish and shellfish. A recent assessment of long term effects of the Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska’s Prince William Sound concluded that that chemically dispersed oil was far more toxic than physically dispersed oil and that PAH in the water column was the primary cause.
* The FDA-NOAA statement also failed to discuss the heavy metals found in oil itself. Heavy metals are trace contaminants in the crude oil, but they bioaccumulate up the food chain. Larger, predator fish could potentially pick up a significant amount of heavy metals from the oil contaminants, and mercury and lead are toxic to the brain and nervous system.
* Many scientists are concerned that levels of some of these chemicals will increase through the food chain over time, resulting in worse problems with food safety several years from now.


(truncated)


1.Many authorities? Tell us who.

2. Oil also kills sea life. Dispersants accelerate the degradation of non-aqueous phase liquid.

3. Chonic exposures to concentrations known to cause the problems discribed in the open ocean are very unlikely.

4. PAHs are not know to bioaccumulate. Chemicaly dispersed oil is more bio available but also degrades more quickly.

5. Heavy metals do bioaccumulate to toxic levels, usually due to chonic exposure over time. The concentrations in tertiary predators should be monitored. I am not aware of this exposure pathway being associated with open water oil spills.

6. Which "Many scientists"?
GFS from the 00Z run was showing up to 8 inches across most of Eastern TN and Northern GA. Another show temp drop could be poised for the East next weekend. Also note all the rain in FL next week. Could be several inches is this La Nina or El-Nino here? Very interesting considering a moderate La Nina.
Wind Advisory for Southern New Haven, CT

Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
4:08 am EST, Mon., Nov. 8, 2010

... WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY... AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREE LIMBS... WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH... ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION

Quoting hydrus:
Good coverage Jason, but where are you located?
I LIVE in Southern New Haven, CT
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
wow!!!!


What a Nor-Easter! WOW!
Quoting Fluid:
A person could wonder just how in the world an NOAA official could imagine that it is part of her job description to try to tell a website what it should and should not be publishing regarding the safety of gulf seafood.

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/noaas-lead-public-affairs-officer-demanded-website-withdraw-story

A U.S. government spokesperson reacted sharply today to an EIN news story questioning the safety of gulf seafood, saying “the veracity of the federal government seafood safety protocol or results are not in question by any qualified scientist.” EINNEWS said it stands by its story.

The official, Christine Patrick, the lead public affairs officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, demanded that EINNEWS withdraw its story. …

But contrary to Ms Patrick’s claim that “the results are not in question by any qualified scientist,” the scientific community has expressed concerns that the federal government has been too quick to help the Gulf fishery get back on its feet after the massive BP oil spill. …

Based on available literature EINNEWS supports its original story, will not withdraw it, and invites members of the scientific community to offer their opinions.

Some of EIN’s examples:

* The DOSS safety “threshold” itself is controversial among scientists and represents a compromise with many authorities who believe it should be higher.
* The Environmental Protection Agency asked BP to stop using the dispersant Corexit 9527′s because of short and long term concerns about its toxicity. … Despite the EPA’s concerns, Corexit 9527 was used until supplies ran out, and then was replaced with Corexit 9500.
* The dispersants are known to kill incubating sea life.
* In humans, long-term exposure can cause central nervous system problems or damage blood, kidneys or livers, according to the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention.
* The FDA-NOAA statement made no mention of tests for PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). These are cancer-causing chemicals in crude oil and can be taken in through fish and shellfish. A recent assessment of long term effects of the Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska’s Prince William Sound concluded that that chemically dispersed oil was far more toxic than physically dispersed oil and that PAH in the water column was the primary cause.
* The FDA-NOAA statement also failed to discuss the heavy metals found in oil itself. Heavy metals are trace contaminants in the crude oil, but they bioaccumulate up the food chain. Larger, predator fish could potentially pick up a significant amount of heavy metals from the oil contaminants, and mercury and lead are toxic to the brain and nervous system.
* Many scientists are concerned that levels of some of these chemicals will increase through the food chain over time, resulting in worse problems with food safety several years from now.


(truncated)


I am sorry to have to call you on this but floridaoilspilllaw.com is an obvious hype and fear-mongering site.

They post numerous articles which look legitimate at first glance but many of them are not. Most of the content there is unsubstantiated
or unverifiable.

Just as one small example, when the Macondo well leak was underway, floridaoilspilllaw.com posted numerous articles, with photo images, that purported to "prove" that oil from the Macondo well was washing up on Florida East Coast beaches. Of course, no such thing was happening. Some of these articles were linked to countless other sites on the Internet and thus were presented as "official information" even though they were not. And this is just one example, there have been hundreds or thousands coming from that so-called source since it first started cranking out its inflammatory articles about the oil spill.

It is bad enough when a cascading disaster such as the Gulf oil spill takes place. It is worse when the various authorities involved behave irresponsibly or treat the general public with disdain and attempt to cover up certain aspects of the situation.

But equally abhorrent is the behavior of websites or other entities which use the ongoing disaster as an excuse to spew hype and fan the flames of fear, depending upon the ignorance of some in the general public to be their catalyst for such efforts.
ok
Quoting jurakantaino:
I know is late in the season but the little system at 15N, 73W showing some spinning, we need to keep and eye on it...
possible development called for by NOGAPS
Quoting Neapolitan:

Ha! No...but--on a somewhat related note--it appears that "Mexican" (stadium crowd) waves tend to run counter-clockwise in the southern hemisphere with far greater frequency than they do in the northern.

Coincidence? :-)




Mexico is not in the southern hemisphere.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I am sorry to have to call you on this but floridaoilspilllaw.com is an obvious hype and fear-mongering site.

They post numerous articles which look legitimate at first glance but many of them are not. Most of the content there is unsubstantiated
or unverifiable.

Just as one small example, when the Macondo well leak was underway, floridaoilspilllaw.com posted numerous articles, with photo images, that purported to "prove" that oil from the Macondo well was washing up on Florida East Coast beaches. Of course, no such thing was happening. Some of these articles were linked to countless other sites on the Internet and thus were presented as "official information" even though they were not. And this is just one example, there have been hundreds or thousands coming from that so-called source since it first started cranking out its inflammatory articles about the oil spill.

It is bad enough when a cascading disaster such as the Gulf oil spill takes place. It is worse when the various authorities involved behave irresponsibly or treat the general public with disdain and attempt to cover up certain aspects of the situation.

But equally abhorrent is the behavior of websites or other entities which use the ongoing disaster as an excuse to spew hype and fan the flames of fear, depending upon the ignorance of some in the general public to be their catalyst for such efforts.


+1
"So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season."

A little monkey told me that, I sware.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll drink to that. ;-)

I'll have to disagree with you on that. The reason I'm even on this site is my fascination tropical weather. I love watching TCs form; I enjoy testing my (admittedly minimal) hurricane forecasting skills against the experts; I admire the awesome sight of an Igor thrashing away at peak somewhere over the open water; I like to spend spare hours crunching the seasonal stats. And, I'll openly admit, there's always a bit of a letdown for me as each season winds down (as they always do); much as I like weather, I get little enjoyment out of watching a cold, cyclone-less Atlantic.

Now, my attitude doesn't in any way imply that I wish to see landfalling storms, especially in populated areas, and even more so in impoverished populated areas. Been there, done that, helped clean up the mess--and more than once. I suppose some on here do want to see them, and that's their prerogative, but it's not a mindset I happen to share.

Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days and 14 hours until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)


But to carry your analogy one step further: simply because 499 laps have gone by accident free, doesn't imply that there can't be a major pile-up on the last turn of the last lap.

True, odds are reduced, but as long as conditions are ripe (cars moving), there can be a disaster.
36. P451
Northern Westchester County, NY

Had moderate sleet and then moderate sleet and snow for some time this AM. Occasional heavy bursts with winds pushing 40 at times in gusts.

Happy to see the winter precip I must say.

Event has since changed to rain/sleet and now is winding down. Wind on the rise. It's in the 30s.
Quoting remembercleo:
"So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season."

A little monkey told me that, I sware.


Hey, I didn't tell you anything!
I'm glad to see this discussed now, Jeff -- I was wondering whether you'd "stick a fork in it" at this point.

Years ago, a colleague (who's now a CCM in New England, I believe) used to swear by a rule of thumb to the effect that a cold front with enough energy to push through Merida (on the Yucutan Peninsula) was the signal of the end of the storm season, at least in South Florida. This last system (Friday Nov 5) was strong enough to do that, and I think we're done for this year.
Good Afternoon..........Here's hoping that temps rebound a bit in North Florida this week so I can get some coastal fishing in on Thursday and Friday. We normally do not get down into the 30's until Jan-Feb so this past week's cold snap was a bit of a surprise.
Does anyone have the animation of Gulf SST's? I wonder how fast they fell after this weekend's cold temps...
If I may hearken back to Haiti's plight--a major topic of dicussion here just a few days ago as Tomas bore down on the island--I'd like to present a pair of photographs as evidence that not a lot has been done since the quake. The following images show the same area shot three weeks after the quake and again seven months after it.

FEBRUARY 3, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Many more images here.
Quoting TampaTom:
Does anyone have the animation of Gulf SST's? I wonder how fast they fell after this weekend's cold temps...

Pretty dramatic:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/gosst.gif
posted in error
Quoting TampaTom:
Does anyone have the animation of Gulf SST's? I wonder how fast they fell after this weekend's cold temps...
here is a still image of sept 7 oct 7 nov 7


.FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT 0.4 700 AM 11/8 COOP OBSERVER
SHELTON 0.3 728 AM 11/8 COOP OBSERVER
DANBURY 0.2 838 AM 11/8 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PORTLAND 1.3 800 AM 11/8
KILLINGWORTH 0.5 640 AM 11/8 NEWS MEDIA

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
MADISON 1.0 632 AM 11/8 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 0.5 640 AM 11/8 NEWS MEDIA
BRANFORD 0.3 619 AM 11/8 PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GROTON 0.5 615 AM 11/8 FIRE DEPARTMENT
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
It will be interesting to see how the moisture surge from the Atlantic responds to the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea..It is my belief that something tropical will come from this set up..All the while a wintry weather forecast for the U.S...
area of disturbed weather at 7N 48W moving west. the area is in moderate shear and weak 850mb vorticity
Quoting Neapolitan:
If I may hearken back to Haiti's plight--a major topic of dicussion here just a few days ago as Tomas bore down on the island--I'd like to present a pair of photographs as evidence that not a lot has been done since the quake. The following images show the same area shot three weeks after the quake and again seven months after it.

FEBRUARY 3, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Many more images here.


To think you had the nerve to bust my chops and call me out last week when I said the money people donated didn't get to the people and nothing was being done to clean this mess up and start rebuilding. The only way people are get help in Haiti is from organization like Portlight which has done a remarkable job there. Rappers doing animalistic dances on TV to raise money is not getting the job done. All I said is they should focus that energy in Haiti to help the people rebuild. I also made a reference to Poppa Doc as when he was in power it was safer to walk the streets there than now as the crime in Haiti is out of control. What he did in power I don't know but I do know it was a safer place to walk around than now. You are a dam fool to call me a racist when you have no clue who I am and your lucky this wasn't a face to face conversation.
Quoting Neapolitan:
If I may hearken back to Haiti's plight--a major topic of dicussion here just a few days ago as Tomas bore down on the island--I'd like to present a pair of photographs as evidence that not a lot has been done since the quake. The following images show the same area shot three weeks after the quake and again seven months after it.

FEBRUARY 3, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Many more images here.
It's the same guy there too! LOL
Quoting Waltanater:
It's the same guy there too! LOL


No it's not!
Good grief. Lets not talk about the geopolitical situation unless we are willing to go into non stereotyped based detail.
Why was there such a poor forecast this season, when it came to a landfalling hurricanes hitting the CONUS?
If you had actually read the article you would understand why it's called the Mexican wave...so quick to criticize!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Mexico is not in the southern hemisphere.
Quoting DrCloud:
I'm glad to see this discussed now, Jeff -- I was wondering whether you'd "stick a fork in it" at this point.

Years ago, a colleague (who's now a CCM in New England, I believe) used to swear by a rule of thumb to the effect that a cold front with enough energy to push through Merida (on the Yucutan Peninsula) was the signal of the end of the storm season, at least in South Florida. This last system (Friday Nov 5) was strong enough to do that, and I think we're done for this year.


Yeah, the GOM hurricane season is over.
Quoting remembercleo:


Yeah, the GOM hurricane season is over. its hard to believe i know after 159 years of record keeping
Quoting WXTXN:
If you had actually read the article you would understand why it's called the Mexican wave...so quick to criticize!!


That's the problem people don't read before responding. I call this lazy!
wow!!! look like a hurricane!!!
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
wow!!! look like a hurricane!!!


Is it windy there? If so what's your max gusts?
Quoting Jeff9641:


You have a lot of room to talk with all of your GW B S.


Well as I source my statements on current scientific knowledge and dont rely on racist stereotypes and gross generalizations to form my opinion - I actually do have a lot of room to talk still.

You posts daily display a critical lack of any reference material backing up your ridiculous opinions.

You are best ignored. Others can deal with your ridiculous statements.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Well as I source my statements on current scientific knowledge and dont rely on racist stereotypes to form my opinion - I actually do have a lot of room to talk still.

You post daily display a critical lack of any reference material backing up your ridiculous opinions.


Well for one my family was in Haiti and I know the conditions first hand there and nothing said was racist. All I said is the only way these people are getting help are by on ground operations. Maybe you need to post critical information.
Interesting to see the anticyclone that once accompanied Tomas now perfectly collocated with the disturbance in the Caribbean.
Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting to see the anticyclone that once accompanied Tomas now perfectly collocated with the disturbance in the Caribbean.
Is this the disturbance the models where predicting to form last week?
Some nice vort in the Southern Caribbean.

Can someone calculate that Noreaster's ACE value? Apply the total energy equation (TEE), and show all your work.
Quoting LoveThemCanes:
Is this the disturbance the models where predicting to form last week?
Yeap, that's the one, suppose to move NE to the Mona Canal...vamos a ver que pasa...
Quoting LoveThemCanes:
Is this the disturbance the models where predicting to form last week?


Yep, but most of the models have backed off and stopped developing it.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, but most of the models have backed off and stopped developing it.


There's some nice spin going on in the Southern Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, but most of the models have backed off and stopped developing it.


Looks like a lot of rain from this system will head NE toward PR.
Quoting tornadodude:



Hey T-Dude! How are you? Hard to believe Tornado season is just a few months away already.
Quoting Jeff9641:


There's some nice spin going on in the Southern Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


Yep, I'm not sure why the models stopped developing, it has warm SSTs and an anticlone, plus its spin.

*Maybe the problem will be dry air?
Idaho Falls ID

Updated: 0 sec ago
31.7 °F
Heavy Snow Fog Windchill: 22 °F
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 10.0 mphfrom the SW
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Overcast 300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 4750 ft

Actually there seems to be two spins battling it out.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Idaho Falls ID

Updated: 0 sec ago
31.7 °F
Heavy Snow Fog Windchill: 22 °F
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 10.0 mphfrom the SW
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Overcast 300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 4750 ft



Nice! Now that's some snow!
Quoting Jeff9641:



Hey T-Dude! How are you? Hard to believe Tornado season is just a few months away already.


yeah I know!

im getting ready for it,

how have you been?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nice! Now that's some snow!
Just this morning the forecast was for rain changing to snow tonight with little or no accumulation....somebody at the NWS must have finally looked out the window because now we have a winter weather advisory.lol
Hey T dude, Dewey has a pretty cool waterspout vid up on his blog.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I know!

im getting ready for it,

how have you been?


Been great! I would love to go on a Chase sometime. Spring 2011 could be a prime tornado season and I think the season could start early this coming season as La Nina is in place. I think this coming season will be similar to Spring 2008 as the wx patterns could be similar.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey T dude, Dewey has a pretty cool waterspout vid up on his blog.


oh right on,

I'll have to check it out!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey T dude, Dewey has a pretty cool waterspout vid up on his blog.


Amazing video that is! Dewey always post some of the best severe wx pics on his blog.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Been great! I would love to go on a Chase sometime. Spring 2011 could be a prime tornado season and I think the season could start early this coming season as La Nina is in place. I think this coming season will be similar to Spring 2008 as the wx patterns could be similar.


yeah, this coming season looks to be pretty epic, and dangerous!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Amazing video that is! Dewey always post some of the best severe wx pics on his blog.


that was great!
Quoting tornadodude:


that was great!


Hey did you run into Reed Timmer this past season while chasing with OZ and do you plan to this this upcoming season?

Big cyclone over UK today with high winds battering the coasts of Spain and France, accompanied by very low pressure even in Germany (less than 980 hPa), but few winds.
Quoting barbamz:

Big cyclone over UK today with high winds battering the coasts of Spain and France, accompanied by very low pressure even in Germany (less than 980 hPa), but few winds.


I saw that - they had warnings up all weekend in Ireland.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll drink to that. ;-)

I'll have to disagree with you on that. The reason I'm even on this site is my fascination tropical weather. I love watching TCs form; I enjoy testing my (admittedly minimal) hurricane forecasting skills against the experts; I admire the awesome sight of an Igor thrashing away at peak somewhere over the open water; I like to spend spare hours crunching the seasonal stats. And, I'll openly admit, there's always a bit of a letdown for me as each season winds down (as they always do); much as I like weather, I get little enjoyment out of watching a cold, cyclone-less Atlantic.

Now, my attitude doesn't in any way imply that I wish to see landfalling storms, especially in populated areas, and even more so in impoverished populated areas. Been there, done that, helped clean up the mess--and more than once. I suppose some on here do want to see them, and that's their prerogative, but it's not a mindset I happen to share.

Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days and 14 hours until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)


You put that really well. I agree.

Pressure map western Europe. Click to enlarge.
Quoting barbamz:

Pressure map western Europe. Click to enlarge.


Monster wind machine!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Monster wind machine!


Really. Wonder whether we'll get some of these during the next days in Germany.
Quoting jurakantaino:
I know is late in the season but the little system at 15N, 73W showing some spinning, we need to keep and eye on it...


Surprised NHC hasn't picked up on this! This at least deserves a "near 0" circle!
This is some cold air dropping deep into TX then spreading east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_348.shtml
First time in months I've seen the "No Tropical Cyclones At This Time" TWO in the Atlantic. Feels weird.
Someone new in the neighborhood??

Link
on his firing
there's this really neat feature called personal messaging...

it's located at the top of the page, just click on "mail," select to whom you would like to talk, then type away.

It saves blog space, generally prevents one from making a fool of himself in front of the whole blog, and keeps the blog in a better mood.

:P

Evening all. After a lousy day with cold dull weather, it's good to look into the blog for a few. On the season end, I sure hope the good doc is right about the end of threatening storms, but I certainly expect to see at least one more named system before the end of the year. I doubt it'll be more than a TS, but there's certainly enough potential out there for one more.... IMO. It'll be interesting to see IF and WHERE anything else happens....

Currently

Nassau, Bahamas
75 °F / 24 °C
Mostly Cloudy

Bah humbug.
Re 113 TS.... wish I could afford to sit around all day and chat.... would mean I could live without going to work... unfortunately at least some of us live in the real world... lol

Quoting hurristat:




Um, actually, he's not a fool. He's right.


Congratulations! Violence is the best way to get things done! Because bullying and threats are the best way to communicate your ideas! Nevertheless, stuff like this only makes you look like a jerk. Don't do it.


To be honest I was very upset when the individual above called me a racist for making a statement that i felt would help the Haitian people more other than booty dancing on TV to raise money. I was mad and made out of character remarks and I'm sorry for saying that to the Neapoliton as it was just out of anger.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am amazed how some sit at home all day and chat. I see the same people 24/7 on this site and all they want to do is pick a fight with others. If your at work your unproductive, if your at home your unproductive, and above all your dam unproductive on here as well when all you do is attack others. GET A LIFE
Excellent post...Terrific post.......Absolutely great post...:0)
Quoting sunlinepr:

My blobcasting senses are tingling :) pre-Virginie is looking good!
live press conference going on right now on the coaching agange
Quoting Jeff9641:
To be honest I was very upset when the individual above called me a racist for making a statement that i felt would help the Haitian people more other than booty dancing on TV to raise money.


I guess just think about what you say before you say it. It wasn't so much that your idea was bad: there are better ways to raise money and to help people than TV telethons, but it was more the way that you phrased it, talking about "rappers" dancing "animalistically." I suppose I may be a bit overreactionary about this, as I had to console a Hispanic friend that I have after some incredibly racist comments were said to him. So I guess just choose your words more carefully.

I was mad and made out of character remarks and I'm sorry for saying that to the Neapolitan as it was just out of anger.


Fair enough. No harm done.
Quoting winter123:

My blobcasting senses are tingling :) pre-Virginie is looking good!

Well, that blob is stationary and spinin... Though models like NAM & GFS do recognize it as a Low that dissipates
If we get one more storm it would make this year the 2nd most active season since records were kept....

I notice that, on one of the satellite view loops posted below, that Port-au-Prince is the only dot of light that shows up on the nighttime frames on the Haitian side of Hispaniola. I guess that would make for fine stargazing, but there are other implications, too.

The mess to the south might not develop into a cyclone, but it could still be an unwelcome rain threat if it drifts north.
Edit: nevermind
The pattern set up later this week and next week should perclude anything from developing imo I think the season is over but wouldn't rule out a sub tropical system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
?

2005: 27 named storms

1995: 21 named storms

2010: 20 named storms (Considering we get Virgine)


1995 : 19 storms...
area of convection southeast of the southern winwards will be approaching an area of low shear for the next few days. this could spring a surprise. a little 850mb vort, and sss is still in the 29 deg C range
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
breaking news:wade is fired....knew it
I wish they would have kept him on til after they Played the Saints, Rob...LOL!
Seems like that N'Easter is going to move SE to Central Atl... Seems it Will cleanup everything...

GFS 162 hrs






Quoting CaribBoy:


1995 : 19 storms...


I changed it...For some odd reason, the number 21 and the season 1995 just seem to match.
For memorable years, don't forget 1933 (and these are only the ones that came close enough to land to be counted in the pre-satellite era:



My guess is 50-50 odds for one more named system and 20% chance for two or more.
well it got worse than jerry thought so he did it now...garret's the man now
I come on here seldomly(Is that a word?) But everytime I do I hear the "Grownup Babies".
I can now see how and why we get into wars because MAN cannot get along with MAN. Being female I do believe we need a WOMAN to run all of the governments of the world...And if I here the usual manly comment about a certain time of the month it will deepen my hope in MAN'S world.

I guess what I am saying is GROW UP MEN
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am amazed how some sit at home all day and chat. I see the same people 24/7 on this site and all they want to do is pick a fight with others. If your at work your unproductive, if your at home your unproductive, and above all your dam unproductive on here as well when all you do is attack others. GET A LIFE


Amen brother. Seriously, when I look back at posts when I get home from college, it's amazing all of the fights I see. A word of advice, if you're young like me, and you haven't gone to school since high school, go to college and get a degree. If you can't, get a job. Then that should help the problem, and hopefully it will make the fighters nicer people.

Speaking of college, i'm looking forward to getting out of this school i'm in and going to a school that offers meteorology. Hopefully, it will be for the spring semester or for the start of sophomore year.
And what really ruined my day was, Neopolitan...He WAS my last hope, but now he let me down and showed he was a true Silver Back...And as for you TampaSpin..On your last post..Does this mean we are all to ignore your bashings of Orca??
Quoting Dakster:
If we get one more storm it would make this year the 2nd most active season since records were kept....


It would have to beat 1933 before becoming the 2nd most active hurricane season. (1933 had 21 total storms)
Well really you probably just shouldn't say things that are harmful or involve harmful stereotypes.

Its a no brainier. Its not that difficult a rule to follow. Source your opinions.

I don't know why you would kick someone when they are down anyway. Obviously it doesn't help the situation, in any way shape or form and only makes matters worse.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I come on here seldomly(Is that a word?) But everytime I do I hear the "Grownup Babies".
I can now see how and why we get into wars because MAN cannot get along with MAN. Being female I do believe we need a WOMAN to run all of the governments of the world...And if I here the usual manly comment about a certain time of the month it will deepen my hope in MAN'S world.

I guess what I am saying is GROW UP MEN


I'm a feminist, and this is patently not what the majority of feminists support. Feminists support equality -- and while man has caused all of the problems faced by women day in and day out, an all-woman government would work just as well as an all-man government. A 50-50 mix of the two is the best.

Oh, and women are just as immature as men, when age is greater than 22.
Caneswatch - What school are you going to?
To each his (or her) own hurristat...I agree partly with the immaturity, but the female immaturity usually does kill fellow human beings..The female immaturity usually is at the worst is " Does this lipstick make my butt look big"?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And what really ruined my day was, Neopolitan...He WAS my last hope, but now he let me down and showed he was a true Silver Back...And as for you TampaSpin..On your last post..Does this mean we are all to ignore your bashings of Orca??


Apparently you need to read the blogs to see you are being very blind in both eyes. IT IS THE OTHER WAY AROUND. And, most except for a very small few Know that to be true!
TampaSpin....It is going to take a lot of convincing...But does it really matter what I think? Not really at the end of the day..I will not have trouble sleeping because of you, or Orca...I just know what I see.
Are you the real Jesus, and now living in Tampa...I think not
I dont even know what any of that means. I would certainly, again, avoid stereotypes and insensitivities, particularly negative ones with regard to age, race, religion, gender, sexuality and economic status.

None of that is really helpful to the discussion. BE SPECIFIC.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And what really ruined my day was, Neopolitan...He WAS my last hope, but now he let me down and showed he was a true Silver Back...

Huh? I thought my acknowledgement of the physical threat would prove that I was absolutely not just another gorilla-disguised-as-a-man. Oh, well; you won't be the first female I've let down--a fact to which my ex-wives would no doubt attest. ;-)
Sorry Neo..I have excepted the fact that there is not the "Perfect Man" but hey, you sure gave it a good shot, and I salute you for that.Try harder
Question: The low off the UK, was it a named storm at some point? Just curious its progression to there. tyia if anyone knows.

img src="">">



Good evening everyone. Is this something I need to watch or no chance of development ?
Quoting Jeff9641:


To be honest I was very upset when the individual above called me a racist for making a statement that i felt would help the Haitian people more other than booty dancing on TV to raise money. I was mad and made out of character remarks and I'm sorry for saying that to the Neapoliton as it was just out of anger.


Jeff i have know you for over a year, and i have never seen any kind of racist comment ever and i doubt nothing of the such was intended to mean such. Your a good guy so don't worry too much about others words.
153. BDAwx
Did we forget Hurricane Paloma (2008)? November 5th - 10th. That was a major hurricane.
Hurricane Ida (2009)? November 4th-10th.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Huh? I thought my acknowledgement of the physical threat would prove that I was absolutely not just another gorilla-disguised-as-a-man. Oh, well; you won't be the first female I've let down--a fact to which my ex-wives would no doubt attest. ;-)
Let me guess......Now everything is going to be a gender issue?...There is enough off topic B.S.on the blog that reasonable people have to contend with.
Quoting hydrus:
Let me guess......Now everything is going to be a gender issue?...There is enough off topic B.S.on the blog that reasonable people have to contend with.
That is why so many people have left I think. Many familiar names have been noticeably absent.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Huh? I thought my acknowledgement of the physical threat would prove that I was absolutely not just another gorilla-disguised-as-a-man. Oh, well; you won't be the first female I've let down--a fact to which my ex-wives would no doubt attest. ;-)
I'm a gorilla disquised as a potato.
Idaho........I love baked potatoes with butter, sour cream, and chives.
Quoting hurristat:


I'm a feminist, and this is patently not what the majority of feminists support. Feminists support equality -- and while man has caused all of the problems faced by women day in and day out, an all-woman government would work just as well as an all-man government. A 50-50 mix of the two is the best.

Oh, and women are just as immature as men, when age is greater than 22.


really....?

probably going to do a lot of lurking in the coming months if this is what the blog is coming to
Even if we don't see Virginie, it is VERY impressive that we've seen 2/3 of the top 3 most active hurricane seasons in the last 5 years. 2005 and 2010.

I didn't think 2010 would become THIS active, even in May when the 14-24 named prediction by NOAA came out I thought 17 was reasonable. 19 however.. that's higher than Dr. Gray's forecast in August.
Home from work, catching up.

Blob south of Windwards: strong subsidence just west of there and dry relatively stable air; just wait and see it appears.

Palmbeach et al: being an older dude and quite benign: no real difference at all; a few graphic interpretations:

WARNING!!! Graphic Content in the following links!!!!!!! DANGER Will Robinson DANGER!

Either, early adulthood:
Link

Either middle aged:
Link

Either "wicked old"
Link

:)
I wonder if we may get 1 or 2 more unnammed tropical storms this year from earlier that may put this over 1933
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I guess what I am saying is GROW UP MEN


I think it should be grow up BOYS and GIRLS. Actually, there are only a few here. Most everyone else on this blog is well-behaved and reacts to criticism in a totally appropriate manner.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Idaho........I love baked potatoes with butter, sour cream, and chives.
Sorry, I'm a married spud...even got some tater-tots and I only get buttery with my Wife. ;^)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That is why so many people have left I think. Many familiar names have been noticeably absent.
If this type of subject matter starts to prevail over scientific info, admin will make some changes.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Sorry, I'm a married spud...even got some tater-tots and I only get buttery with my Wife. ;^)


LOL nice
Everyone, stop being a jerk. Just because you think that whatever side comment you make that happens to be borderline racist or sexist or homophobic, it hurts. I happen to be fairly well blessed: white, male, and heterosexual. But I have female friends, I have gay friends, I have "minority" friends. And I've had to console them after some side comment that someone said that wasn't intentionally rude, but still hurt their feelings anyways. So, yes, all the racist sympathizers on here who say, "oh, you're not racist, it's cool." No. Everyone's racist, whether you think you are or not. I'm racist. Dr. Masters is racist. Neapolitan is racist. Jeff9641 is racist. But the question is: do you do something to counteract that, do you do something in choosing your words carefully? I know I do, and I know at least then I can have some comfort in the fact that I tried. Do you try?

To the regulars who aren't involved: I'm sorry for this rant, but whenever I see racism or sexism or homophobic actions, I must stand up. It is my social duty.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh it will get much worse hydrus...With not too much going on in the tropics I have devoted the rest of my life at getting revenge at men..


Thanks for the warning. Must say I'm not so sure this is the right place to vent your anger, though.

Quoting hurristat:
Everyone, stop being a jerk. Just because you think that whatever side comment you make that happens to be borderline racist or sexist or homophobic, it hurts. I happen to be fairly well blessed: white, male, and heterosexual. But I have female friends, I have gay friends, I have "minority" friends. And I've had to console them after some side comment that someone said that wasn't intentionally rude, but still hurt their feelings anyways. So, yes, all the racist sympathizers on here who say, "oh, you're not racist, it's cool." No. Everyone's racist, whether you think you are or not. I'm racist. Dr. Masters is racist. Neapolitan is racist. Jeff9641 is racist. But the question is: do you do something to counteract that, do you do something in choosing your words carefully? I know I do, and I know at least then I can have some comfort in the fact that I tried. Do you try?

To the regulars who aren't involved: I'm sorry for this rant, but whenever I see racism or sexism or homophobic actions, I must stand up. It is my social duty.


I respect your helping people and consoling them, but do they really get hurt to the point of needing help because of what someone said on the internet?

Quoting hydrus:
If this type of subject matter starts to prevail over scientific info, admin will make some changes.
change will come even if ya want it or not
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
change will come even if ya want it or not


if change can come for the Dallas Cowboys, then there is hope everywhere
Quoting Dakster:
Caneswatch - What school are you going to?


If I can get super lucky, my avatar says it all. If not, it's FIU.
Quoting caneswatch:


If I can get super lucky, my avatar says it all. If not, it's FIU.


FIU is where JFV goes... :P
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff i have know you for over a year, and i have never seen any kind of racist comment ever and i doubt nothing of the such was intended to mean such. Your a good guy so don't worry too much about others words.


I have been a member here for only a short while but a lurker for far longer.

And so, I second the above comment.

+2
Quoting hurristat:


No, but even if someone is racist within such a small and homologous group, such as this (which, I have to say, is 75% white) the subtle stuff is still wrong. I feel like I need to stand up for those that cannot be there. Better to stop someone before they do actually cause damage.


fair enough





so, how bout 'dem Cowboys?
Quoting tornadodude:


if change can come for the Dallas Cowboys, then there is hope everywhere


Change did come lol. If no one heard, Phillips fired, Garrett is the replacement.
Quoting caneswatch:


Change did come lol. If no one heard, Phillips fired, Garrett is the replacement.


yeah, that was my point haha so there is hope
Quoting tornadodude:


fair enough





so, how bout 'dem Cowboys?


lol

they're not doing so hot this year

although I'm not sure I should be one to make judgments. the lions (my hometown team) aren't doing much better...
Quoting hurristat:


lol

they're not doing so hot this year

although I'm not sure I should be one to make judgments. the lions (my hometown team) aren't doing much better...


haha at least the lions have a better record,

I think it is a race between Dallas and Buffalo to see who gets the first pick in the draft :P
Latest Blog News:

Weather blog Champion ends defeated by Controversial bloggers Giant....



Quoting tornadodude:


haha at least the lions have a better record,

I think it is a race between Dallas and Buffalo to see who gets the first pick on the draft :P


ya, we almost won the game against the jets!!
Seriously, do we really have to be this stupid? Have you ever thought through that maybe all people are prone to corruption need some work and lots of help and humility? Your stupid theories won't save you from your selfishness and ignorance, we are all selfish and have a lot to learn, I have my share of selfishness and wrong theories, I am not putting myself above others, so stop pointing the finger and quit it with the arrogant opinions. This is a weather blog, how the heck does it turn into a stupid debate over stupid politics. Guess what all your theories are wrong. But if you want to go and waste your life debating and trying to prove who's smarter, this isn't the place.
Quoting tornadodude:


FIU is where JFV goes... :P


I know :P, if I can't get into The U, FIU is my only hope.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Latest Blog News:

Weather blog Champion ends defeated by Controversial bloggers Giant....





that dude is a fat blob, anyone could beat him in a boxing match, lol.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, that was my point haha so there is hope


I know :P, I was just posting it for people who didn't hear it yet.
Alejandro!!!!!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


that dude is a fat blob, anyone could beat him in a boxing match, lol.


Hope so....
Hey guys!

Quoting hydrus:
If this type of subject matter starts to prevail over scientific info, admin will make some changes.
There are a lot of people from the Caribbean who come here to get information. It is very irritating when all you see is this back and forth foolishness. I would spend hours on here before reading each and every post. Now I glimpse through for comments from a select few.
Quoting hurristat:


ya, we almost won the game against the jets!!


haha yeah it was a close one!

Quoting caneswatch:


I know :P, I was just posting it for people who didn't hear it yet.


good call, best of luck with school too man!
The other side of the blog fighting is that there r prolly quite a few pple fighting on the blog by day because they are supposed to be SLEEPING so they can go to work @ night.... and some of them who'd RATHER be working.... but maybe can't get a job. Maybe the blog aggression is the result of yet another job application rejected....

So I am glad I have a job to go to where I don't get a break to get online during the day, on the days when I am in a position to get online in the first place...
Good luck Caneswatch... I am a UM Alumn... Although that was many years ago.
snow at my house this morning!!!
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah it was a close one!



good call, best of luck with school too man!


Thanks TD. I just looked at FIU, everything for me would be about $18,000, about $4,000 less than what my current tuition is. If everything goes well, I can transfer there.
kewl photo JASE.... I'm thinking about spending some time w/ relatives up in the Boston area at Christmas... ur snow pic in the New Haven area is not making feel like going there.... I'm shivering at 73 right now...
Quoting Dakster:
Good luck Caneswatch... I am a UM Alumn... Although that was many years ago.


Thanks Dak. The U is the first school i'm applying to, so hopefully, it goes well and I can get in there instead of FIU.
HP was the CONUS best friend this season. Amazing that not even 1 minimal hurricane made landfall.
Quoting caneswatch:


Thanks TD. I just looked at FIU, everything for me would be about $18,000, about $4,000 less than what my current tuition is. If everything goes well, I can transfer there.


right on man!

bast of luck, do what you think is best
Jason. Apparently you do not live in South Florida. I am not really familar with that white stuff that falls from the sky and collects on the ground.
Check out the Haiti story linked in our blog. It just might reaffirm your faith in humanity.
Link
Quoting Dakster:
Jason. Apparently you do not live in South Florida. I am not really familar with that white stuff that falls from the sky and collects on the ground.


lol
Buenos Noches, from 42 degrees South!
In Puerto Madryn,Argentina, south of Buenos Aires it is about 8 celcius, which is COLD however you call it.

Glad to read that things are pretty quiet in the Basin, though Haiti had some troubles.

Is that blob of rain approaching the Islands out near 50W going to leave some rain behind?
Quoting robert88:
HP was the CONUS best friend this season. Amazing that not even 1 minimal hurricane made landfall.


Yea, but screwed over everyone else though.

Caused very similar damage and even a higher death toll than the 1995 hurricane season.
Quoting pottery:
Buenos Noches, from 42 degrees South!
In Puerto Madryn,Argentina, south of Buenos Aires it is about 8 celcius, which is COLD however you call it.

Glad to read that things are pretty quiet in the Basin, though Haiti had some troubles.

Is that blob of rain approaching the Islands out near 50W going to leave some rain behind?



Its really not getting cold enough in Haiti to kill mosquitoes either. Adults killed and breeding pools disrupted gave them a window of less mosquitoes but that will be over soon.
Quoting JFLORIDA:



Its really not getting cold enough in Haiti to kill mosquitoes either. Adults killed and breeding pools disrupted gave them a window of less mosquitoes but that will be over soon.


does it ever get cold enough in Haiti to kill mosquitoes anyway?

Ill check, the larva of Aedes aegypti dies at 50 degrees.
Sorry about earlier -- today's been a rough day and I kind of have a short temper today. Sorry for distracting everyone from the conversation and raising the tension on the blog.

We now shall return to our regularly scheduled program...
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ill check, the larva of Aedes aegypti dies at 50 degrees.


oh ok, right on
Quoting Portlight:
Check out the Haiti story linked in our blog. It just might reaffirm your faith in humanity.
Link


Well done Press!
Quoting tornadodude:


does it ever get cold enough in Haiti to kill mosquitoes anyway?



Only rarely and in the highest mountain areas.

The highest mountain on Hispañola is in the Dominican Republic and a bit to the east of the Haitian Border.

Pico Duarte is around 3100 meters in height and it can drop down below freezing there.

Most of the island is at too low an elevation though to get conditions cold enough and often enough to kill mosquito larvae on a widespread basis.
Quoting pottery:
Buenos Noches, from 42 degrees South!
In Puerto Madryn,Argentina, south of Buenos Aires it is about 8 celcius, which is COLD however you call it.

Glad to read that things are pretty quiet in the Basin, though Haiti had some troubles.

Is that blob of rain approaching the Islands out near 50W going to leave some rain behind?


I don't know how keeper, orca, and others live where they do. I can at least run around naked when its 100F ;)
oh wow,

so doesnt really get cold enough at all there to kill of mosquitoes...

bad news
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Only rarely and in the highest mountain areas.

The highest mountain on Hispaola is in the Dominican Republic and a bit to the east of the Haitian Border.

Pico Duarte is around 3100 meters in height and it can drop down below freezing there.

Most of the island is at too low an elevation though to get conditions cold enough and often enough to kill mosquito larvae on a widespread basis.


thanks wish i would have seen that first - went through the last few years lol. Doing some research on my own of seasonal models for my blog now anyway so its good.
Quoting tornadodude:
oh wow,

so doesnt really get cold enough at all there to kill of mosquitoes...

bad news


I know here it can come a snow and the ditches and such can have ice for days, and as soon as it warms up BAM. Mosquitoes! They are like a roach, and their eggs can lay dormant for months without water in any temp. They have em in Canada during the summer, and it freezes there for a few months at a time!
I just cant see it being cold long enough to kill off any mosquitoes
Quoting GaryGaga:
Quoting 183. KerryInNOLAThe People of Haiti are shouting. If you listen carefully when the ocean is calm, you can hear them. They shout
Gimmie Shelter

(M. Jagger/K. Richards)

Oh, a storm is threat'ning
My very life today
If I don't get some shelter
Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away
It's just a shot away
War, children, it's just a shot away
It's just a shot away


CALL OF DUTY - BLACK OPS . " Operation Haitian Liberation by Annilihation".


Please tell me thats not a real badge you are wearing in your avatar!
Quoting pottery:
Buenos Noches, from 42 degrees South!
In Puerto Madryn,Argentina, south of Buenos Aires it is about 8 celcius, which is COLD however you call it.

Glad to read that things are pretty quiet in the Basin, though Haiti had some troubles.

Is that blob of rain approaching the Islands out near 50W going to leave some rain behind?


Good evening, Pottery. What happened to the 3 week hiatus?
Complete Update

Something different.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
So glad to see DontAnnoyMe come here and be an expert at what is going on .....Doctor Joyce Brothers would be proud of you.......NOT


Well - lol. When did I claim to be an expert? I simply offered my opinion and observations, based on several years of watching this blog. I didn't hear anyone refute what I said in post 164.

Meanwhile, still looking pretty dry for those of us in the SE US

Pretty good player:

WHAT...is THAT?! (right-bottom corner)



Full disk...
Hey Y'all.


(FROM 8 PM NHC DISCUSSION)
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N45W TO 15N47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEPICTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/1300 UTC. MID-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THE WAVE LOCATES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL...700 MB...RIDGE THAT COVERS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

I was amazed at the 30-50% chance of another tropical system mentioned in Doc Masters' blog.
Fuzzy on the details since my brain has thankfully shut down.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
WHAT...is THAT?! (right-bottom corner)



Full disk...
ITCZ action. or something like that.
Quoting jeffs713:
ITCZ action. or something like that.

That is a tropical wave.
With still a chance of developing because shear is low in the Caribbean still and waters are warm enough to support cyclogenesis.

Potts would like to know if he'll get some rain out of it.
IRLoop
Quoting pottery:
Buenos Noches, from 42 degrees South!
In Puerto Madryn,Argentina, south of Buenos Aires it is about 8 celcius, which is COLD however you call it.

Glad to read that things are pretty quiet in the Basin, though Haiti had some troubles.

Is that blob of rain approaching the Islands out near 50W going to leave some rain behind?




imo, yes. it's still pretty far south.
237. kwads
Quoting Chicklit:




imo, yes. it's still pretty far south.
It is still pretty far south like Tomas
Hey, Chick.

I'm thinking that Twave has a chance of getting a name. I don't expect it to get beyond TS, but I wouldn't be surprised at Virginie.

And what about the lower edge of that front kicking up some "action" in the Central CAR?

xx/xx/xx
xx/xx/xx

Seems like that Wave SE of the islands will be absorbed or kept South by this N'easter that is going to move SE to the mid Atl... for the moment NAM & GFS dissipate it....



Govt suspects cholera has entered Haitian capital

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti %u2013 Health officials said Monday they are examining at least 120 suspected cases of cholera in Haiti's capital, the most significant warning sign yet that the epidemic has spread from outlying areas to threaten as many as 3 million people.

Link

Hmmm, no coverage of the Nor'Easter on the blog tonight. Hmmm

BTW, about 80% of the images some of you are posting are showing up as black squares on my browser. I am using the latest firefox and my firewall is off.

And NO to a lot you who will say I am making a racist remark with black squares.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Hmmm, no coverage of the Nor'Easter on the blog tonight. Hmmm

BTW, about 80% of the images some of you are posting are showing up as black squares on my browser. I am using the latest firefox and my firewall is off.

And NO to a lot you who will say I am making a racist remark with black squares.

They are chromatically challenged squares.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:

They are chromatically challenged squares.
Good one!
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Hmmm, no coverage of the Nor'Easter on the blog tonight. Hmmm

BTW, about 80% of the images some of you are posting are showing up as black squares on my browser. I am using the latest firefox and my firewall is off.

And NO to a lot you who will say I am making a racist remark with black squares.


Political correctness™

Where free speech is a thing of the past.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Good one!
Saints look like they are doing better and regaining their form of last season.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Saints look like they are doing better and regaining their form of last season.
Yea, they need to finish 6-1 to win their division and get a 1 or 2 seed probably. A key game will be at Atlanta on MNF on 12/27. The Defense actually is better this year.
The blog is dead and my satellite dish is full of snow....(sigh)
000
NOUS41 KBGM 090208
PNSBGM
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-091406-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
906 PM EST MON NOV 8 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


NEW YORK

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
DELHI 4.0 600 PM 11/8
SPOTTER
WALTON 1.0 600 PM 11/8 SPOTTER

$$




Called for no more than 5 inches in my blog post, not too shabby, decent sized early snow for the interior of New York tho
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yea, they need to finish 6-1 to win their division and get a 1 or 2 seed probably. A key game will be at Atlanta on MNF on 12/27. The Defense actually is better this year.
I lived in Algiers Point and worked in Belle Chase back-in-the-day. What part of NOLA are you in?
Quoting tornadodude:
Snowed here all day but only accumulated about 3 inches of wet-slushy snow...perfect for snowmen and snowball fights!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I lived in Algiers Point and worked in Belle Chase back-in-the-day. What part of NOLA are you in?
I was born on Belville St in Algiers point and live in Mandeville now. I'll take a guess, you worked at the refinery or the Airbase.
That Nor'easter looks like it is wound up tight! What are the winds like on Nantuket?
Bought my first house on Casa Calvo....stationed on the Air base. Good Call!
My sister-in-law and father-in-law live in Covington.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Bought my first house on Casa Calvo....stationed on the Air base. Good Call!
Small world. Anyway, we think a lot about moving up your way someday.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Snowed here all day but only accumulated about 3 inches of wet-slushy snow...perfect for snowmen and snowball fights!


sounds like a lot of fun!
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Small world. Anyway, we think a lot about moving up your way someday.
I enjoy it and it's a great place to raise kids.

Quoting tornadodude:


sounds like a lot of fun!
It is now but come March April....notsomuch.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I enjoy it and it's a great place to raise kids.

It is now but come March April....notsomuch.


oh i bet!

so are you in the Air Force?
Quoting tornadodude:


oh i bet!

so are you in the Air Force?
I was a Marine in a helicopter squadron.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I was a Marine in a helicopter squadron.


oh, that's great!

I have been contemplating joining the Air Force
Quoting tornadodude:


oh, that's great!

I have been contemplating joining the Air Force
Cool, the Air Force is almost like being in the military!lol.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Cool, the Air Force is almost like being in the military!lol.
Just Kidding!! The military (all branches) is a good career and/or a good way to jump-start your college education.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Just Kidding!! The military (all branches) is a good career and/or a good way to jump-start your college education.
(as long as you don't get shot, blown-up, etc.) :^p
hahaa yeah, no kidding, we'll see what happens
Quoting tornadodude:


oh, that's great!

I have been contemplating joining the Air Force


But then you're van project would be gone.
Quoting caneswatch:


But then you're van project would be gone.


yeah... lol

storm chasing is my main priority, but that requires funding
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah... lol

storm chasing is my main priority, but that requires funding


Yeah, you're right. My cousins are in the Air Force, they like it.
I half expect at least one more storm for the Atlantic basin before this season is done. There has been a trend toward later storms the last 10 or so years. Plenty of energy left.


President Ren Prval changing strategy credited with saving lives

PORT-AU-PRINCE -- Fifteen hours after his arrival at an emergency operations center and just as a menacing Hurricane Tomas took aim at the capital and the flood-prone northwest coast, a sleep-deprived President Ren Prval peered into the TV cameras and in a stern voice pleaded with the Haitian people.

``Everyone living near the ocean. Cit Eternal. Cit Soleil. Evacuate,'' he said live from the emergency command post next to the presidential palace, which had collapsed in the January earthquake. ``In order for us to no longer count dead bodies, please, evacuate.''

A media-dodging president who has been criticized for poor communication, Prval -- and his disaster-weary, often overwhelmed government -- had undergone a transformation.

``In the history of hurricanes in this country, this is the first time that a president took it upon himself to go around and motivate the population in advance of the hurricane's arrival,'' said Ronald Semelfort, Haiti's chief meteorologist. ``This is what took us to the current results where we were able to limit the number of deaths in the population.''

Officials say 21 died in the storm, which struck Friday, and its aftermath. Tomas dumped 15 inches of rain as it passed over Haiti. In the past, many more have died in storms with far less rain.

The low death toll has been credited to not only Prval's personal pleas but also to government action. For months the government has been warning Haitians to seek friends and family they could stay with in the event of a weather crisis and Haiti was put on red alert five days prior to Tomas' arrival.

Throughout the storm, disaster experts gave regular updates and warned Haitians not to cross rivers or stand on bridges. In one community, the police even set up barricades to keep people off a bridge.

Faced with a cholera epidemic that has already left hundreds dead and thousands hospitalized, as well as this late-season hurricane, Prval took to the road and the airwaves to warn Haitians last week.

He ended up visiting more Haitian cities in a 72-hour period than he had during his entire five years as president -- making him omnipresent in Haitians' daily lives for the first time.


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/11/08/1915870/president-rene-preval-changing.html#ixzz14kzs334D
Wind Warning

Issued at 8:06 PM PST Monday 8 November 2010

Summary

Southeast winds 70 to 90 km/h will develop over West Vancouver Island overnight. Southeast winds 60 to 80 km/h will develop over Greater Victoria..Southern Gulf Islands..East Vancouver Island Tuesday morning. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Details

A pacific frontal system is approaching the British Columbia south coast. Ahead of the system strong southeast winds of 70 to 90 km/h will develop over West Vancouver Island overnight. Strong southeast winds of 60 to 80 km/h will also spread to Greater Victoria..Southern Gulf Islands..East Vancouver Island Tuesday morning. The strong winds will ease early Tuesday morning over West Vancouver Island and early Tuesday afternoon over Greater Victoria..Southern Gulf Islands..East Vancouver Island.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Just Kidding!! The military (all branches) is a good career and/or a good way to jump-start your college education.


Well, I'm not Sure that's the feeling of the many American families who lost sons in Irak and Afganistan, while others jump-started their education like:

Link
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah... lol

storm chasing is my main priority, but that requires funding
Look into programs that pay for school and then require a contract (usually 6 years) after graduation. Navy and I think A.F. have meteoroligist jobs so you get Met degree, 6 years experience, get out and write your own ticket.
Oh Oh, I knew the mellow mood of the blog would change when the Antiamerican sentiment of those who live under our umbrella of security and freedom showed up.
so many possibilities ha

“I can promise you won’t go to Iraq or Afghanistan because of your assigned Military Occupational Specialty/Duty Station/branch of service/reserve or guard status/because I say so.”
Response: Recruiters can promise this, but their word means absolutely nothing to the people who will actually decide what the military does with you. A lot of the people who join the military today will go to the Middle East (about 43% of the Army). Some of them won’t come home or, more likely "partially" come home. Personnel from the Navy and Air Force are being pulled as “Individual Mobilization Augmentees” to run convoys in Iraq after a two-week crash course. In a comparatively unprecedented action, the Marine Corps has even sent band members to Iraq for combat missions.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, I'm not Sure that's the feeling of the many American families who lost sons in Irak and Afganistan, while others jump-started their education like:

Link
To paraphrase Creedence Clearwater Revival...I ain't no fortunate son...but last I checked the military was a respected vocation and a good way to improve the hand that life deals you.
Quoting tornadodude:
so many possibilities ha



There are, but you need to pick the one that you think is best.
Quoting sunlinepr:
“I can promise you won’t go to Iraq or Afghanistan because of your assigned Military Occupational Specialty/Duty Station/branch of service/reserve or guard status/because I say so.”
Response: Recruiters can promise this, but their word means absolutely nothing to the people who will actually decide what the military does with you. A lot of the people who join the military today will go to the Middle East (about 43% of the Army). Some of them won’t come home or, more likely "partially" come home. Personnel from the Navy and Air Force are being pulled as “Individual Mobilization Augmentees” to run convoys in Iraq after a two-week crash course. In a comparatively unprecedented action, the Marine Corps has even sent band members to Iraq for combat missions.
WTF!? Marines do almost nothing but combat missions. Hey life on the tip of the spear is not for everyone...you should be happy that there are those who chose to defend freedom with action and not just words.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
the military was a respected vocation and a good way to improve the hand that life deals you..

With much respect, my opinion is that like you said "It was a respected vocation....". Right now, when you press that digital button to fire a missile from a drone over a suspected enemy there, you will never find, if a family of civilians is blown up or even if you are involved in a "friendly fire" situation....
I don't blame people for not believing most of the stupid crap that people write about themselves on a blog but I am a Desert Storm veteran who got a Bachelors of Science in biology while in the Corps and a Masters of Science after I left the military so I might have a clue about what I am writing about.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2010

....

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD
TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 50W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N67W THEN BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N72W. EARLIER INDICATIONS FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/1440 UTC SHOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OCCURRING WITH A NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
14N71W WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
75W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN
Quoting caneswatch:


There are, but you need to pick the one that you think is best.


agreed

a lot of thought and prayer and we'll see

ha plan as of now is storm chasing
292. JLPR2
The military is a volatile topic of conversation and since I don't want people hating my guts I wont say nothing. :P

Also suddenly we got a few AOIs.


Quoting sunlinepr:

With much respect, my opinion is that like you said "It was a respected vocation....". Right now, when you press that digital button to fire a missile from a drone over a suspected enemy there, you will never find, if a family of civilians is blown up or even if you are involved in a "friendly fire" situation....
The burden of evidence required to secure permission to utilize the type of lethal force you describe is VERY high. Never-the-less, war always results in civilian casualties...what is your solution?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
you should be happy that there are those who chose to defend freedom with action and not just words.


Sure!!! there are many who are happy that there are many young lives who defend freedom with action and not just words....

There are a lot of World leaders, enjoying luxury and billionare life styles because of those who believe that they should put the word into action...

And that's what I hate....
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
The burden of evidence required to secure permission to utilize the type of lethal force you describe is VERY high. Never-the-less, war always results in civilian casualties...what is your solution?


Man, you are correct, there is no solution.... Not a single human in this world will deliver that....

Well, I'll keep on watching the skies....
Quoting sunlinepr:

With much respect, my opinion is that like you said "It was a respected vocation....". Right now, when you press that digital button to fire a missile from a drone over a suspected enemy there, you will never find, if a family of civilians is blown up or even if you are involved in a "friendly fire" situation....
Those people, and I assume you're talking about the tribal regions of Pakistan ARE HARBORING TERRORISTS and if I had my way, we would take them out cause the Pakistani Govt is in bed with them. I would start droning Yemen soon also.
Quoting JLPR2:
The military is a volatile topic of conversation and since I don't want people hating my guts I wont say nothing. :P

Also suddenly we got a few AOIs.


"Discretion is the better part of valor"! LOL
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
"Discretion is the better part of valor"! LOL


;)
299. JLPR2
Strongest winds are still at the center of Tomas, I thought it had transitioned into an extratropical storm.
300. JLPR2
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
"Discretion is the better part of valor"! LOL


That's the price to pay to stay neutral here. XD
Quoting sunlinepr:


Shure!!! there are many who are happy that there are many young lives who defend freedom with action and not just words....

There are a lot of World leaders, enjoying luxury and billionare life styles because of those who believe that they should put the word into action
Problem is, if no one fights, Bin Laden and his ilk will stick a knife in your belly whether your rich or poor.
Definitions of ilk on the Web:

"A type, race or category; a group of entities that have common characteristics such that they may be grouped together; The same"
"A U.S.—born radical Yemeni cleric has called for the killing of Americans in a new video message posted on radical web sites on Monday.

Anwar al—Awlaki said Americans are from the “party of devils” and so don’t require any special religious permission to kill.

In the 23—minute Arabic language message entitled “Make it known and clear to mankind,” al—Awlaki said it was “either them or us.”

Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoa! Pat Robertson has an Islamic twin!
LOL
Quoting sunlinepr:
Hey even if we don't see eye-to-eye I hear what you are saying and I feel like neither of us disrespected the other during this discourse.....peace out. :)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
LOL
Salvo's! Best po'boys on the West bank!
Quoting JLPR2:
Strongest winds are still at the center of Tomas, I thought it had transitioned into an extratropical storm.

May be considered a hybrid storm?? Anyone pull the charts to see if this is a cold or warm cored storm?
Caribbean AOI : 10%

Good night
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey even if we don't see eye-to-eye I hear what you are saying and I feel like neither of us disrespected the other during this discourse.....peace out. :)


Well, that proves that you can present your ideas in this blog, without hurting anyone... In this small interchange of ideas, I feel that I've learned from you... I feel the same everytime my nephew arrives from Irak, I sit and chat with him.... 3rd time he's been there.... Though we can differ, it's his life and his freedom to decide.... and also mine....
Our next trouble-maker:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Salvo's! Best po'boys on the West bank!
Danny and Clyde's are good too.
315. JLPR2
Quoting Bordonaro:

May be considered a hybrid storm?? Anyone pull the charts to see if this is a cold or warm cored storm?


This one says Asymmetric warm core.
317. JLPR2
Although the consensus says shallow cold core
That N'easter is going to wipe all lows away.... The ones that persist, will be too way South...

That "pesky" trough has nosed down to the 20N latitude area. The southwesterly winds are lowering pressures in the SE Caribbean, just as another area of Low pressure has developed and a tropical wave approaches from the east.

I smell the 20TH TC of the season over the next 4-7 days, may be sooner!!!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2010

....

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD
TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 50W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N67W THEN BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N72W. EARLIER INDICATIONS FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/1440 UTC SHOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OCCURRING WITH A NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
14N71W WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
75W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN

Here we go AGAIN!!!!

"ARLIER INDICATIONS FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/1440 UTC SHOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OCCURRING WITH A NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
14N71W WITHIN 24 HOURS"


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Bob if your still online.......please go back to the site...gotta show you something


SPC AC 090618

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS BLOCKING
PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MAY
BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. PACIFIC
COAST...AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE MAY BEGIN TO DIG MORE SHARPLY WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A STRONG DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH... WITH
THE MORE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD FEATURE.
WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING THE SOMEWHAT MODEST
PROGGED STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER...OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER...PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO
PROBABLY BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL OR SLOWLY RETREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN
STILL APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A RELATIVE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION...AND
LIMITING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
GIVEN THE SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE... AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND
SHEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
APPEARS TO EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING AT
LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT A
PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF LOWER 50S DEW POINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO
250 J/KG. WHILE WEAK...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A NARROW BROKEN LINE...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE AND CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.

...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...
MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF A VIGOROUS DIGGING JET
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE NEAR THE 10
PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD.

..KERR.. 11/09/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT


AL932010 - INVEST



BAMSick!
So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters



My guess is a new post Tuesday morning.
I don't think anyone here cares, but I just finished a giant research paper!! :D
Quoting hurristat:
I don't think anyone here cares, but I just finished a giant research paper!! :D


A paper on what?
Quoting KoritheMan:


A paper on what?


yeah, Im curious as well lol
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, Im curious as well lol


lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol


haha

:PP
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2010

....

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD
TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 50W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N67W THEN BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N72W. EARLIER INDICATIONS FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/1440 UTC SHOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OCCURRING WITH A NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
14N71W WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
75W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN


Where is this heading?
Quoting hurristat:
I don't think anyone here cares, but I just finished a giant research paper!! :D


I hope the giant approved :) I too, am curious. In what field did you submit your paper? Congratulations by the way!
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Where is this heading?


Quoting CaribbeanStorm:




Slowly NW according to 0z steering data from PSU's e-wall.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Slowly NW according to 0z steering data from PSU's e-wall.


Very interesting!!!
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Very interesting!!!




Maybe it will dissipate soon!
This is a few hours old, but no one has posted it yet, so here you go:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011090606
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010110906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010110806, , BEST, 0, 135N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 694W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110818, , BEST, 0, 135N, 695W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110900, , BEST, 0, 135N, 696W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 697W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Woulda thought Tomas would be sheared beyond localization by now, but...
Hurricane
7Nov 06amGMT - 25.3n69.6w - 65knots(~120.4km/h) - 990mb - ATCF
TropicalStorm
7Nov 12pmGMT - 25.8n69.6w - 60knots(~111.1km/h) - 992mb - ATCF
7Nov 06pmGMT - 26.0n69.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 992mb - ATCF
ExtraTropical
8Nov 12amGMT - 26.0n68.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 993mb - ATCF
8Nov 06amGMT - 25.8n67.5w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 994mb - ATCF
8Nov 12pmGMT - 25.6n66.2w - 50knots__(92.6km/h) - 997mb - ATCF
8Nov 06pmGMT - 25.8n64.5w - 45knots_(~83.3km/h) - 997mb - ATCF
9Nov 12amGMT - 26.5n62.3w - 45knots_(~83.3km/h) - 995mb - ATCF
9Nov 06amGMT - 28.0n60.2w - 45knots_(~83.3km/h) - 995mb - ATCF

Copy&paste 25.3n69.6w, 25.8n69.6w, 26.0n69.5w, 26.0n68.5w, 25.8n67.5w-25.6n66.2w, 25.6n66.2w-25.8n64.5w, 25.8n64.5w-26.5n62.3w, 26.5n62.3w-28.0n60.2w, mbj, 26.7n54.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the directions and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Slowly NW according to 0z steering data from PSU's e-wall.


We are hoping that this will be shortlived. We are anxiously awaiting Dr. Masters comment.
343. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST TUE NOV 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N60W SW THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N70W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E
THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 19N WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. THE LOW AND
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRI...
LEAVING A STATIONARY SHEAR LINE IN
PLACE THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WED AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This is a few hours old, but no one has posted it yet, so here you go:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011090606
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010110906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010110806, , BEST, 0, 135N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 694W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110818, , BEST, 0, 135N, 695W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110900, , BEST, 0, 135N, 696W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 697W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, B0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
About time the pay attention to this entity , is been showing a nice rotation and little by little is increasing its area of convection...
Quoting jurakantaino:
About time the pay attention to this entity , is been showing a nice rotation and little by little is increasing its area of convection...


NHC gives this less than 30% probability

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif
hey guys I see we have 93L but I don't trust the models at all I will have to watch it for a few days anyway today I will be at work so more chance to watch it and I may do a broadcast over the weather radio station that we have
Here's an old ASCAT pass:

This amazing season has yet another one? Could be!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoa! Pat Robertson has an Islamic twin!



That's not a fair comparison.
Good Morning all, I see we have 93L, a potential Puerto Rico problem?
Link Whatever circulation there is sames to be drifting eastward
Good Morning
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
93L.INVEST
Looks like a rainy week next week for FL then some of the coldest air since last winter is set to drop down from Canada possibly causing some freezes at night well down into S FL. GFS is agressive with this deep trough and has been for several days now. Next week appears to be quite interesting as some could get a decent snow all the way into the Southern Appalachians.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.10N/69.80W
540

WHXX01 KWBC 091228

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1228 UTC TUE NOV 9 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20101109 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101109 1200 101110 0000 101110 1200 101111 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 69.3W 15.5N 69.4W 16.7N 69.8W 17.9N 70.0W

BAMD 14.2N 69.3W 15.4N 69.4W 16.8N 69.0W 18.4N 67.4W

BAMM 14.2N 69.3W 15.4N 69.3W 16.4N 69.3W 17.6N 68.8W

LBAR 14.2N 69.3W 15.2N 69.2W 16.9N 68.9W 18.6N 67.8W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101111 1200 101112 1200 101113 1200 101114 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.5N 69.8W 18.6N 68.3W 19.5N 64.2W 23.3N 56.9W

BAMD 19.7N 64.1W 22.6N 53.7W 27.3N 42.9W 25.8N 34.5W

BAMM 18.5N 67.3W 19.6N 61.5W 25.0N 52.1W 30.8N 42.3W

LBAR 20.9N 65.1W 28.2N 54.1W 39.2N 41.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 30KTS 25KTS 17KTS 0KTS

DSHP 30KTS 25KTS 17KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 69.3W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 18DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 69.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
I smell Virgine coming...



this could become at most a tropical depression with 93l
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this could become at most a tropical depression with 93l


Morning Keeper! Great tornado videos you posted on Dewey's blog.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this could become at most a tropical depression with 93l


Or it could become a TS
Complete Update

Apparently the Fat Lady forgot to sing :)






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
thanks 41
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or it could become a TS
if it does it will be brief
Large disturbance in the Atlantic... Rotation very pronounced with new invest.
Quoting Neapolitan:



That's for sure; where religious nuttiness and holy book malinterpretation are concerned, I doubt even a wildly radical jihadist could give Robertson a run for his money. ;-)


Your left wing is showing.
had a scare this morning to wake me up... guess they were doing a test on the nuclear power plant sirens here at 9 AM that I did not know about... those things are very very loud and not something you want to be woken up by... I got up and got online to find out if it was a test or real

edit... one of the sirens was 1 block from my house
JB this morning. Two Posts. Enjoy and let the bashing begin!


TUESDAY 7:30 AM
DR MANN, CAN I TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST?

Yet Mann remains keenly aware of the political import of every word. He ended his talk with an impassioned plea to action, complete with a picture of his daughter marveling at swimming polar bears at the local zoo. "I can't imagine having to tell her when she's grown up that the polar bears became extinct" he said, "because we didnt act soon enough to combat a problem that we knew was real but that we couldn't convince the public of."



Okay, lets get little forecast going here between PSU's most visible climatologist and a fading memory of the 70s at PSU, me. I predict that my daughter, who is about the same age as Dr. Manns, will still have Polar Bears to marvel at in her old age. Its a simple forecast, so we shall see who is right, the synoptic blue collar weather nerd ( me) or the highly quoted PHD that is leading the charge for us to do things that are questionable at best for the polar bears, and would perhaps cut out the very economic machine that made it possible for researchers like Dr. Mann to get those big grants.

That money came from somewhere, it had to be a profit somewhere and just because it gets recycled through the government doesnt mean someone, somewhere else, did not work for it and either have it confiscated in the form of taxes, or volunteered to give it away.

But I have seen none of it, nor do I want it, since it is not mine. However I will accept a forecast challenge when I see one, even if it is from a university employee that I got my degree from, and just like forecasts for lack of ice at the pole by 2010 ( now pushed to 2013, with our esteemed science officer saying the arctic may be ice free in winter) This one will crash and burn too. The question is will someone call him on it.

Dont worry Jessie ( my daughter) polar bears will be around for your grandchildren to see. Just understand, they are big animals meant to be in the wild where its cold, and thats just where they will be ( BTW why isnt Dr Mann upset about the bear being in a zoo, seems awfully cruel to me)

Game on.. Give us an extinction date, Dr. Mann. Say exactly what you mean, so we can all write it down.

ciao for now.

TUESDAY 7 AM

GET READY FOR WINTER..WEST FIRST, THEN PLAINS, BUT INTO THE EAST THE 20TH AND BEYOND.

now that I have your attention, a couple of things

1) Tomas still has a tight low level center with banded convection to the north and northeast. Why they have to take names off these things when they came out of the tropics is beyond me ( until they are absorbed and gone). Think about the willy nilly standards here.. the naming of Grace last year in the middle of a cold upper low, north of 40 north, with 70 degree water, and then you see this. Again, one standard, I think I have the right idea, do it and be done with it.

Its as if confusion needs to be created to force reliance, and common sense is thrown to the 4 winds. See Rudyard Kiplings The Gods Of the Copybook Headings: http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm


2) The LGA thermometer continues to run too warm relative to everyone around it. There is no reason for JFK... on a north northwest wind coming straight down from the city to be 1-2 colder than LGA, which further east does not have the exposure to the city on a north to north northwest wind. I suspect that this needs to be looked at the old fashioned way, get 5 thermometers, immersed in ice water at 32 degrees so we know they are accurate, and then put them next to the thermometer at LGA to see if they are all reading the same thing. It was snowing around NYC yesterday, and while the other sites dropped to near 40 during the time snow was reported, not LGA.. snow in the air.. at 45 degrees. Cut me a break. That would mean, given a saturated lapse rate ( which it wasnt, btw) the snowflakes would have had to survive for 2500 feet. At 40 and assuming it could be saturated above, the more standard 12 hundred feet for seeing the end game of a flake is likely. Again common sense says something is amiss.


Read that Kipling poem.. it blew me away since it applies to a bunch of things, not only my little rants about the weather.

Well I see we have the Caribbean active again. And the ITCZ is loading back up. It is getting late now, but its amazing, how on October 4th I read a quote as to how the season was ending like 2004 and on it went, right out of the area that had to produce storms to CORRECT the imbalance that was evident ( and by the way, gives hope for the cold start to winter in the east... no tropical storm development because its too late, if the imbalance is still there and colder air shows up, it heads toward it, and you are seeing that evolution underway... with this trough now and then what is coming later in the month and into December for the east. That ties into the rant below about research deciding we now need warmer water temps for tropical cyclones.

Okay you got me. I admit it. I am upset about that paper because I was getting ready to put out one that said you need lower temperatures for it to get as cold as it used too. Stole my thunder right out from under my feet.

ciao for now ***

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
had a scare this morning to wake me up... guess they were doing a test on the nuclear power plant sirens here at 9 AM that I did not know about... those things are very very loud and not something you want to be woken up by... I got up and got online to find out if it was a test or real

edit... one of the sirens was 1 block from my house
I would have been quite worried myself if that happened to me..
The GEM has the invest in the Caribbean remaining stationary for a week..Link look, what a surprise, 3 low pressure areas in the Caribbean in 84 hours...
Quoting hydrus:
I would have been quite worried myself if that happened to me..


they used to post it in the Rochester News paper but now they only post it in the local one that I dont read
didnt jb call for 5 significant tc effects for the contiguous US and a oilacane at one point as well,he has the makings of a wx version of glenn beck,suprised he doesnt do foxs wx!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting Neapolitan:



That's for sure; where religious nuttiness and holy book malinterpretation are concerned, I doubt even a wildly radical jihadist could give Robertson a run for his money. ;-)


Your left wing is showing.
Since ur right wing is showing and his left wing is showing, does that now mean we have a balanced aircraft?
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST TUE 09 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Morning all.

PDoug, I couldn't resist that one... lol

I see we had some interesting military-related conversation overnight, respectful, too, which is pretty good for the blog. If pple were different, we could do without armed forces; as it is, I think u as an individual have to decide whether that is something that is right for u... it's really not a career u join because ur folks want u to or because all ur friends are doing it. Unlike the "run over while crossing the street" scenarios, pple who join the military should do so knowing they will be expected to put their lives at risk. I wouldn't do it myself; I don't encourage my young relatives to join up; however I greatly respect those who know themselves well enough to choose the military as a career. There are some pple out there for whom there is no better choice. And SOMEbody's got to do it, unfortunately. So IMO respect is due.

On the Cleric = Pat Robertson, my one comment is "That's the kind of thinking that we need to kill". Wars happen when people begin to think their way of thinking / belief is more important than other pple's lives, and anybody who promotes the "them or us" way of thinking is IMO in the same boat.

The weather is better today than yesterday - not so gloomy - but I am still not enjoying it. Tomorrow is supposed to be warmer; I hope we get to 82!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since ur right wing is showing and his left wing is showing, does that now mean we have a balanced aircraft?

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!



Not sure these early models will be the true path as high pressure builds off the East Coast!



Below it the GFS MODELS.....its really confused!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST TUE 09 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
This is sorta interesting...Watch the low in the Caribbean, it comes and goes but you can still see it...Link
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 998 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TOWARD
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS NEAR 27N65W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A 27N58W TRIPLE
POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N54W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N58W 24N53W 19N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W
26N46W 19N40W 14N47W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N46W 16N40W 22N39W 25N44W
28N45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW
CENTER. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 20N234W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 34W/35W RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM 18N TO 32N.

Is it just me or is anyone else having off and on issues getting into the SSD site for satellites?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Is it just me or is anyone else having off and on issues getting into the SSD site for satellites?
Its just you...and its probably your fault......j.k....Good morning..
Quoting stormpetrol:

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!
LOL agreed. I think sometimes we have an advantage because our countries r so small... a little harder to get too full of urself when everybody knew where u grew up and went to school w/ u... lol.. u can think what u like, but pple generally laugh at ur foolishness...
Thought some of you might find this interesting:

BY GISELA SPEIDEL – Scientists have long known that atmospheric convection in the form of hurricanes and tropical ocean thunderstorms tends to occur when sea surface temperature rises above a threshold. So how do rising ocean temperatures with global warming affect this threshold?

If the threshold does not rise, it could mean more frequent hurricanes. A new study by researchers at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa shows this threshold sea surface temperature for convection is rising under global warming at the same rate as that of the tropical oceans. Their paper appears in the Advance Online Publications of Nature Geoscience.

In order to detect the annual changes in the threshold sea surface temperature (SST) for convection, Nat Johnson, a postdoctoral fellow at IPRC, and Shang-Ping Xie, a professor of meteorology at IPRC and UH Mānoa, analyzed satellite estimates of tropical ocean rainfall spanning 30 years. They find that changes in the threshold temperature for convection closely follow the changes in average tropical sea surface temperature, which have both been rising approximately 0.1°C per decade.

“The correspondence between the two time series is rather remarkable,” says lead author Johnson. “The convective threshold and average sea surface temperatures are so closely linked because of their relation with temperatures in the atmosphere extending several miles above the surface.”

The change in tropical upper atmospheric temperatures has been a controversial topic in recent years because of discrepancies between reported temperature trends from instruments and the expected trends under global warming according to global climate models. The measurements from instruments have shown less warming than expected in the upper atmosphere. The findings of Johnson and Xie, however, provide strong support that the tropical atmosphere is warming at a rate that is consistent with climate model simulations.

“This study is an exciting example of how applying our knowledge of physical processes in the tropical atmosphere can give us important information when direct measurements may have failed us,” Johnson notes.

The study notes further that global climate models project that the sea surface temperature threshold for convection will continue to rise in tandem with the tropical average sea surface temperature. If true, hurricanes and other forms of tropical convection will require warmer ocean surfaces for initiation over the next century.

This research was supported by grants from NOAA, NSF, NASA, and JAMSTEC.

Citation: N.C. Johnson and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.

Gisela E Speidel is the Outreach Specialist for the International Pacific Research Center

Well, I'm out for a while. Will check in later once the Doc's changed the blog. I guess he'll be going back to 3x weekly blogs after the next week or 2...
390. hulakai 10:02 AM EST on November 09, 2010
Thought some of you might find this interesting:


Very much so.... so this supports Landsea's view that we're more likely to see an increase in POWERFUL TCs than in TCs generally.

And thinking about seasonal numbers, anybody want to guess what our map would have looked like back in 1910 with the kind of activity we've had this year?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morning. Two Posts. Enjoy and let the bashing begin!


TUESDAY 7:30 AM
DR MANN, CAN I TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST?

Yet Mann remains keenly aware of the political import of every word. He ended his talk with an impassioned plea to action, complete with a picture of his daughter marveling at swimming polar bears at the local zoo. "I can't imagine having to tell her when she's grown up that the polar bears became extinct" he said, "because we didnt act soon enough to combat a problem that we knew was real but that we couldn't convince the public of."



Okay, lets get little forecast going here between PSU's most visible climatologist and a fading memory of the 70s at PSU, me. I predict that my daughter, who is about the same age as Dr. Manns, will still have Polar Bears to marvel at in her old age. Its a simple forecast, so we shall see who is right, the synoptic blue collar weather nerd ( me) or the highly quoted PHD that is leading the charge for us to do things that are questionable at best for the polar bears, and would perhaps cut out the very economic machine that made it possible for researchers like Dr. Mann to get those big grants.

That money came from somewhere, it had to be a profit somewhere and just because it gets recycled through the government doesnt mean someone, somewhere else, did not work for it and either have it confiscated in the form of taxes, or volunteered to give it away.

But I have seen none of it, nor do I want it, since it is not mine. However I will accept a forecast challenge when I see one, even if it is from a university employee that I got my degree from, and just like forecasts for lack of ice at the pole by 2010 ( now pushed to 2013, with our esteemed science officer saying the arctic may be ice free in winter) This one will crash and burn too. The question is will someone call him on it.

Dont worry Jessie ( my daughter) polar bears will be around for your grandchildren to see. Just understand, they are big animals meant to be in the wild where its cold, and thats just where they will be ( BTW why isnt Dr Mann upset about the bear being in a zoo, seems awfully cruel to me)

Game on.. Give us an extinction date, Dr. Mann. Say exactly what you mean, so we can all write it down.

ciao for now.

TUESDAY 7 AM

GET READY FOR WINTER..WEST FIRST, THEN PLAINS, BUT INTO THE EAST THE 20TH AND BEYOND.

now that I have your attention, a couple of things

1) Tomas still has a tight low level center with banded convection to the north and northeast. Why they have to take names off these things when they came out of the tropics is beyond me ( until they are absorbed and gone). Think about the willy nilly standards here.. the naming of Grace last year in the middle of a cold upper low, north of 40 north, with 70 degree water, and then you see this. Again, one standard, I think I have the right idea, do it and be done with it.

Its as if confusion needs to be created to force reliance, and common sense is thrown to the 4 winds. See Rudyard Kiplings The Gods Of the Copybook Headings: http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm


2) The LGA thermometer continues to run too warm relative to everyone around it. There is no reason for JFK... on a north northwest wind coming straight down from the city to be 1-2 colder than LGA, which further east does not have the exposure to the city on a north to north northwest wind. I suspect that this needs to be looked at the old fashioned way, get 5 thermometers, immersed in ice water at 32 degrees so we know they are accurate, and then put them next to the thermometer at LGA to see if they are all reading the same thing. It was snowing around NYC yesterday, and while the other sites dropped to near 40 during the time snow was reported, not LGA.. snow in the air.. at 45 degrees. Cut me a break. That would mean, given a saturated lapse rate ( which it wasnt, btw) the snowflakes would have had to survive for 2500 feet. At 40 and assuming it could be saturated above, the more standard 12 hundred feet for seeing the end game of a flake is likely. Again common sense says something is amiss.


Read that Kipling poem.. it blew me away since it applies to a bunch of things, not only my little rants about the weather.

Well I see we have the Caribbean active again. And the ITCZ is loading back up. It is getting late now, but its amazing, how on October 4th I read a quote as to how the season was ending like 2004 and on it went, right out of the area that had to produce storms to CORRECT the imbalance that was evident ( and by the way, gives hope for the cold start to winter in the east... no tropical storm development because its too late, if the imbalance is still there and colder air shows up, it heads toward it, and you are seeing that evolution underway... with this trough now and then what is coming later in the month and into December for the east. That ties into the rant below about research deciding we now need warmer water temps for tropical cyclones.

Okay you got me. I admit it. I am upset about that paper because I was getting ready to put out one that said you need lower temperatures for it to get as cold as it used too. Stole my thunder right out from under my feet.

ciao for now ***


Thanks for posting this, very informative!
BR>“This study is an exciting example of how applying our knowledge of physical processes in the tropical atmosphere can give us important information when direct measurements may have failed us,” Johnson notes.

The study notes further that global climate models project that the sea surface temperature threshold for convection will continue to rise in tandem with the tropical average sea surface temperature. If true, hurricanes and other forms of tropical convection will require warmer ocean surfaces for initiation over the next century.

This research was supported by grants from NOAA, NSF, NASA, and JAMSTEC.

Citation: N.C. Johnson and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.

Gisela E Speidel is the Outreach Specialist for the International Pacific Research Center



They published in that rag? Pffffft....(jk!)
Wow, I didn't realize the morning crowd read anything from the night before.
Yep, so far this year we have been getting close calls from different systems or their tails, with lots of flooding problems,Igor,Tomas,Karl this will be another one, lets hope it doesn't gain to much momentum...
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