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Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:34 PM GMT on December 16, 2008

It seems like there have been an unusual number of early and late season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic in recent years. In 2008, we had four named storms in July, and the second most powerful November hurricane on record. Both 2007 and 2005 had rare December storms, and 2003 featured Tropical Storm Anna, the first April tropical storm ever recorded. This year, Hurricane Tomas made 2010 the fourth straight year with a November hurricane, something that has never occurred in the Atlantic since accurate records began in 1851. Is hurricane season getting longer? Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".


Figure 1. Observed sea surface temperature (SST) trends during the official North Atlantic hurricane season (June-November) for the period 1950-2007. Units are °C per century. The dashed rectangle denotes the tropical storm formation region south of 30° North latitude and east of 75° West longitude. Data are from the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature V3 product [Smith et al., 2008]. Image credit: Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Methods
Dr. Kossin utilized the "best track" database of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity going back to 1851. However, since lack of satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data before 1950 makes the early part of this record suspect, he limited his analysis to the period from 1950 onward. The era of best data--the satellite era beginning in 1980--was also looked at separately, to ensure the highest possible data quality. The area studied was only a portion of the Atlantic--the tropical storm formation region south of 30° North latitude and east of 75° West longitude. This region has shown considerable warming of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) since 1950, in excess of 1°F (0.6°C) (Figure 1). A statistical method called "quantile regression" was employed. The method looked at how certain thresholds that mark the beginning and end of hurricane season have changed over the years. For example, the date where 5% of all tropical storms form earlier than that date, was called the 0.05 quantile, and the date where 5% of all tropical storms form later than that date, was called the 0.95 quantile. Kossin was able to show that the date of the 0.05 quantile got steadily earlier and the date of the 0.95 quantile steadily got later since 1950. Hurricane season for both the period 1950-present and 1980-present got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade.


Figure 2. Trends in tropical storm formation dates, in the region south of 30° North latitude and east of 75° West longitude, at the 0.05.0.95 quantiles. Trends are based on the periods (left) 1950-2007, and (right) 1980-2007. The dates (month/year) associated with the 0.05, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 quantiles for each period are shown on the top axis (these threshold dates are based on the full sample for each period). Shading denotes the 90% confidence interval. Image credit: Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature
The broadening of the Atlantic hurricane season found was strongly dependent upon Sea Surface Temperatures. Both the onset and end of hurricane season shifted by 20 days per degree C of warming of the SST. With global warming projected to increase tropical Atlantic SSTs 1-2°C by the end of the century, can we then expect a 40-80 day increase in the length of hurricane season? Dr. Kossin doesn't explore this possibility, and doesn't blame the observed increase in the length of the season on human-caused global warming of the oceans. There is reason to believe that future warming of the Atlantic SSTs won't necessarily broaden the area over which tropical storms will form, though. Papers by Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (2008) theorize that as SSTs warm, the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form will also increase. The current minimum temperature of 26.5°C (80°F) may increase to 28.5°C for a 2°C warming of Atlantic SSTs. Johnson and Xie (2010) have found observational evidence that the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form has indeed been increasing at about 0.1°C per decade in the Atlantic, in line with climate model predictions.

References
Henderson-Sellers, A., et al., 1998, "Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment", Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79, 19–38.

Johnson, N.C., and S.P. Xie, 2010, "Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection", Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo1008

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi, and I.M. Held, 2008, Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", Nature Geoscience 1, 359 - 364 (2008), doi:10.1038/ngeo202

Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I certainly hope not... thanks Doc.
Meh, I don't think the Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer. There isn't really enough evidence to say for sure, though.
Thanks for keeping us posted while at the conference.
Good Afternoon.
"Hurricane season for both the period 1950 - to present, and 1980 - to- present got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade "

That would suggest to me, that the season has become longer, in the studied period, Drak.
This study is interesting ... because in the early and late season, SSTs usually aren't the limiting factor for cyclones to form.

Storms need an initial vorticity, low shear, moist air, and sufficient SST/convective potential to thrive ... and generally it's the dry air or shear that disrupts the formation around the season's edges, not the SSTs.

That said, higher SSTs provide more area of ocean that can sustain development. This implies that the favorable conditions for cyclogenesis will occur more often. (Assuming no change in the probability of suitable shear, humidity, vorticity.)

I'm still convinced that the way storms are named has changed over time, and greatly skewed the results of this study. Would Epsilon of 2005 have been named 20 years ago? Quite a few of these early / late season storms have been iffy in my book ... and I really don't know if there is a way to identify or remove bias on this area based on the data we have.
Jeff,

Papers by Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (2008) theorize that as SSTs warm, the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form will also increase. The current minimum temperature of 26.5°C (80°F) may increase to 28.5°C for a 2°C warming of Atlantic SSTs.


Why would that be so? Increase in sheer?

Thanks for informative post.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20082009
22:00 PM Reunion December 16 2008
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 10.1S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gust of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Squally weather exist within 160 NM radius from the center extending up to 350 NM in the southern sector and up to 470 NM in the eastern sector (also within a convergence line between 5S to 10S from 75E to 83E).

Locally reaching Gale-force winds 250 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 11.5S 65.8E - 35 knots (Tempete Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 13.1S 64.1E - 35 knots (Tempete Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 13.4S 62.3E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

The position's tilt existiing between the 37ghz and 85ghz channels on TRMM 1010z swath seems not to be so obvious anymore (CF 1357z SSMI/F13 and 1448z SSMIS/F16), so does not been shown on METEO SAT7 Visible animation. Low level center has been in consequence located under the deep convection cell existing since 1500z. This system evolves within a neutral environment: weak wind shear, upper level divergence is good poleward but weak equatorward. low level inflow is established poleward but remains minimal equatorward although it has slightly improved today. Available NWP models analyze this low and tracks it southwest along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical high pressures.

A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
rsmc Mauritius is expecting Moderate Tropical Storm Cindy now.
That's been a question that I've been pondering over the past half-decade and I'm excited that some real scientists have taken notice of this very peculiar trend. Thank you Dr. Masters for providing this information and such an interesting topic to discuss. When I do get some spare time, I will most likely read that paper.

This brings me to another thought. Over the years, many people have had interesting questions about weather that they saught answers to. Well, over the years, it has been my pleasure to answer any questions posed to me by those seeking simple or easy-to-understand answers. Well, coming this week on my site, I will be hosting a new feature. For those here that have any weather-related questions that you wish to get easy-to-understand answers for, just message me your questions and I will answer them in a weekly blog feature on my site called "Ask the CCHS Weather Center". For those wishing to access my site, here is the link.
It sure started early this year.
I've got a sort of related question to GW:

Volcanoes are part of the earth's atmospheric system right?(they spew alot of ash in the air)

So is there a possibility that the earth could "balance" itself by this method?(the earth cools when the ash is in the air?)

Just wanted to throw this question into the mix

It would be interesting to see a blog that proves or disproves any way mother nature can "balance" herself

I mean don't get me wrong and say that I said there's no reason to worry (too little or too much)

There could be a reason to worry since this hypothetical "balancing" could take some time to happen ("balancing" could happen sooner if we change way we live)

I'd just like to see anything that proves or disproves anything about climate "balance" (ie. the time it would take if we stayed "the same" vs. a change, methods of global cooling, cooling and warming of each year/decade( or an appropriate time frame) so that we can see a net outcome to decide if we are warming or cooling, etc)


Perturbation Tropicale 04/96S.INVEST

30kts 1000 MB - Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is likely soon
It should be extended to May through December.



out of season
area of interest west atlantic
Has there been any change in the number of atmospheric disturbances in the period in which they could be detected? Is there any correlation with the Atlantic Oscillation and / or ENSO (El Nino/ la Nina Southern Oscillation)? The latter is associated with tornado frequency with the la Nina portion of the cycle strongly associated with major tornado outbreaks.

Has there been a change in the number of hurricanes forming over relatively cooler waters? I don't have time to look up past hurricanes right now, but I remember there was one last year or the year before that became a hurricane after moving into waters with SST's where hurricanes would be expected to weaken.

13. CybrTeddy 8:31 PM GMT on December 16, 2008

It should be extended to May through December.



Well they unofficially change it to a cyclone could form at anytime. NHC no longer says on their page that the season is "over".

Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I've got a sort of related question to GW:

Volcanoes are part of the earth's atmospheric system right?(they spew alot of ash in the air)

So is there a possibility that the earth could "balance" itself by this method?(the earth cools when the ash is in the air?)

Just wanted to throw this question into the mix

It would be interesting to see a blog that proves or disproves any way mother nature can "balance" herself

I mean don't get me wrong and say that I said there's no reason to worry (too little or too much)

There could be a reason to worry since this hypothetical "balancing" could take some time to happen ("balancing" could happen sooner if we change way we live)

I'd just like to see anything that proves or disproves anything about climate "balance" (ie. the time it would take if we stayed "the same" vs. a change, methods of global cooling, cooling and warming of each year/decade( or an appropriate time frame) so that we can see a net outcome to decide if we are warming or cooling, etc)


Volcanoes indeed do cause cooling; Pinatubo caused temperatures to drop for several years and a series of volcanic eruptions in the early 1800s lead to the "year without a summer" (there have also been instances in the past of massive continent-covering eruptions that caused drastic climate changes, though such eruptions are very rare, the last time was Toba 74,000 years ago). Although I have never heard of any way the Earth can use this to "balance things out"; volcanic eruptions are more or less random and the Earth doesn't "know" about what is happening on the surface. Also, volcanic eruptions are only transitory events, so unless they occurred continuously, they wouldn't be able to offset any warming trend (by themselves, variations in activity over centuries affects long-term climate, as prior to 1850 or so, a relative lack of major eruptions in the first part of the 20th century likely contributed to some of the warming then).

Following are graphics showing forcing from volcanic activity from the link above:





In addition, here is what you get when you add in greenhouse gasses (most of the remaining variations are due to ENSO, as shown in the second graphic):



Quoting CybrTeddy:
It should be extended to May through December.


Or at least, extend it to May 15 and Dec. 15. I think they should shorten the EPac season to May 15 to Nov 15... nothing ever happens in the second half of November
Naw leave the Atlantic season alone. Most storms still happen in Aug-Sept-Oct anyway, and the other months have some activity but generally not too much (July 2005 nonwithstanding) When a major hurricane makes landfall in the USA outside the normal Atlantic hurricane season I'll take notice.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Naw leave the Atlantic season alone. Most storms still happen in Aug-Sept-Oct anyway, and the other months have some activity but generally not too much (July 2005 nonwithstanding) When a major hurricane makes landfall in the USA outside the normal Atlantic hurricane season I'll take notice.
The US isnt the only place that matters...
Anyway, Hurricane Able was a Cat. 3 in the middle of may and came really close to the NC coast as a Cat. 3. does that count?
Woah!! Look at what CMC and UKM do to S. Ontario around 132-138h!
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
WTXS21 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
21:30 PM UTC December 16 2008
======================================

An area of convection (96S/04R) located at 10.2S 67.6E or 335 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts increased deep convection over the low level circulation center. A 1735z AMSU-B Microwave image also shows the increased organization of this system. The system is in an area of low vertical wind shear with favorable diffluence to the poleward side of the low level circulation center. Sea surface temperatures in the region is warm.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 27-32 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
23. DDR
Good evening all.
Quick question,are the models still showing a possible subtropical storm?BTW its a lovely evening here in Trinidad,this tropical paridise,but some showers expected later....
24. P451
With a blog like this, again, I question the data pool. The data we collect today versus the data we collected 50 years ago does not compare.

We have no acceptable data pool to draw conclusions from because until the past 10-12 years - we were in the dark.

Now we see all and we compare our all-seeing-eyes to ages when we couldn't see a damn thing.

Then we try to draw conclusions from it?

No sale.

I don't want to hear that 2008 was a more active hurricane season than 1904 (I pulled the year out of my you know what). Why? Heh... where were the advanced satellites in 1904? How many storms formed in 1904? Where did they go? How do they compare to 2008?

You CANNOT use data going back beyond 1995 and attempt to compare it to today's data because the satellites did not exist and the automated weather stations we have today not only did not exist but they did not exist en masse as they do today.

It's unfortunate but it is reality that you cannot create a factual representation about the weather because we have only stepped into the future - about 10 years ago - in regards to the data fields.

If you try to step beyond about 12 years into the past to confirm a theory on weather you'll always fail.

Perhaps in another 20 or 30 years we will finally have a 30 or 40 year record of weather that WE CAN TRUST and then derive conclusions from.

Not now...don't even try.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Woah!! Look at what CMC and UKM do to S. Ontario around 132-138h!



link please.
Quoting P451:
With a blog like this, again, I question the data pool. The data we collect today versus the data we collected 50 years ago does not compare.

We have no acceptable data pool to draw conclusions from because until the past 10-12 years - we were in the dark.

Now we see all and we compare our all-seeing-eyes to ages when we couldn't see a damn thing.

Then we try to draw conclusions from it?

No sale.

I don't want to hear that 2008 was a more active hurricane season than 1904 (I pulled the year out of my you know what). Why? Heh... where were the advanced satellites in 1904? How many storms formed in 1904? Where did they go? How do they compare to 2008?

You CANNOT use data going back beyond 1995 and attempt to compare it to today's data because the satellites did not exist and the automated weather stations we have today not only did not exist but they did not exist en masse as they do today.

It's unfortunate but it is reality that you cannot create a factual representation about the weather because we have only stepped into the future - about 10 years ago - in regards to the data fields.

If you try to step beyond about 12 years into the past to confirm a theory on weather you'll always fail.

Perhaps in another 20 or 30 years we will finally have a 30 or 40 year record of weather that WE CAN TRUST and then derive conclusions from.

Not now...don't even try.


I agree 100% with you on that. Thats the truth but lots of people ignore that because people only hear what they want to.
Wierd that the GOM is showing a slight cooling trend...
Quoting newt3d:
This study is interesting ... because in the early and late season, SSTs usually aren't the limiting factor for cyclones to form.

Storms need an initial vorticity, low shear, moist air, and sufficient SST/convective potential to thrive ... and generally it's the dry air or shear that disrupts the formation around the season's edges, not the SSTs.

That said, higher SSTs provide more area of ocean that can sustain development. This implies that the favorable conditions for cyclogenesis will occur more often. (Assuming no change in the probability of suitable shear, humidity, vorticity.)

I'm still convinced that the way storms are named has changed over time, and greatly skewed the results of this study. Would Epsilon of 2005 have been named 20 years ago? Quite a few of these early / late season storms have been iffy in my book ... and I really don't know if there is a way to identify or remove bias on this area based on the data we have.


Very good points...all of them.

You should look up a talk Chris Landsea gave at the AMS 2008 annual meeting concerning storms of the past that were not named, but would be if they happened now (looking for link...). Telling, indeed.

He interviewed all of the NHC directors for some number of years back and gave them a scenario.

All of them from further back than 10 years or so said they would not have named the system with the given parameters. That system was an actual named TS from 2005 (I think).
Why didn't anyone write a paper on the Eastern Pacific? The number of hurricanes there have been on the the decline since the 1980s...

Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I've got a sort of related question to GW:

Volcanoes are part of the earth's atmospheric system right?(they spew alot of ash in the air)

So is there a possibility that the earth could "balance" itself by this method?(the earth cools when the ash is in the air?)

Just wanted to throw this question into the mix

It would be interesting to see a blog that proves or disproves any way mother nature can "balance" herself

I mean don't get me wrong and say that I said there's no reason to worry (too little or too much)

There could be a reason to worry since this hypothetical "balancing" could take some time to happen ("balancing" could happen sooner if we change way we live)

I'd just like to see anything that proves or disproves anything about climate "balance" (ie. the time it would take if we stayed "the same" vs. a change, methods of global cooling, cooling and warming of each year/decade( or an appropriate time frame) so that we can see a net outcome to decide if we are warming or cooling, etc)
I think you'll find that most global warming sites are incapable of original thoughts. There only claim to fame is posting more graphs and charts than the next guy and feeling good about themselves for doing so.
Of course, facts are facts. The Artic ice sheet has diminished,the oceans are rising and warmer and appear to be more acidic and global climate as a whole has shown an upward trend.If the earth is warming it also must be expanding.
However, you won't find any discussion as to how this weight redistribution/exspansion can effect plate migration rates and earthquake and volcanic activity increases.
Life as we know it could end tomorrow. No one can dispute that with scientific data. No one can dispute with scientific data that sun spots won't remain low for the next hundred years.
Yellowstone could well have been the next Toba had the hotspot not migrated east beneath heavier structure.
Your thoughts of volcanic activity will get swept under the rug as "ain't gonna happen" and your attention diverted elsewhere. LOL
Quoting HurrikanEB:



link please.

Link. I put the numbers into two different wind calculators, then weighted the calculations accordingly. This is a much saner method than was used last time, when my method produced wind gust calculations about 60 km/h stronger than what actually occured. However, looking at today's calculations based on four different computer models and the official TWN forecast, I still get a crazy calculations of winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) around 2:30 am, Monday, for my location! Of course, it's a long way off, but that's just scary! Of course, the calculation may again prove to be incorrect, but again this is a much more conservative calculation method. The last time I calculated, the method showed the highest gusts in my data set to be 215 km/h, and it yielded a calculation of 135 km/h. This time, the highest number in the data was 330 km/h gust. Now, that's impossible. Still, the highest gust I've ever seen was about 105 km/h. We're also supposed to see over 30 cm (1 ft) of snow within the next week. This is going to be...interesting.
Quoting txag91met:
Why didn't anyone write a paper on the Eastern Pacific? The number of hurricanes there have been on the the decline since the 1980s...


they have active and inactive years in the cycle too they and what I've seen they tend to oppose each other so our active cycle means their inactive cycle. You need to look at more than 30 years for hurricane stats
Quoting theshepherd:
I think you'll find that most global warming sites are incapable of original thoughts. There only claim to fame is posting more graphs and charts than the next guy and feeling good about themselves for doing so.
Of course, facts are facts. The Artic ice sheet has diminished,the oceans are rising and warmer and appear to be more acidic and global climate as a whole has shown an upward trend.If the earth is warming it also must be expanding.
However, you won't find any discussion as to how this weight redistribution/exspansion can effect plate migration rates and earthquake and volcanic activity increases.
Life as we know it could end tomorrow. No one can dispute that with scientific data. No one can dispute with scientific data that sun spots won't remain low for the next hundred years.
Yellowstone could well have been the next Toba had the hotspot not migrated east beneath heavier structure.
Your thoughts of volcanic activity will get swept under the rug as "ain't gonna happen" and your attention diverted elsewhere. LOL

That happens too much an inevitable disaster is swept under the rug. Katrina was theorized before it hit, I remeber a show about it nicknaming Katrina "Pam" and nobody cared until it happened. Then a week after Katrina hit I saw a show about Hurricane X a major hurricane that hit New York.
I see a lot of hoopla around about NASA's newest oceanography satellite, Jason-2 and I see waves and winds reported as near realtime products from the altimeter on board.

Can anyone explain how it is that an altimeter is going to give us anything more than sea surface height? (as in wind on a scale capable of seeing TC vorticies, not the inferred prevailing wind on a scale of weeks...to influence SSH) Or maybe that scale of wind is what they are talking about for climate study applications...but then why near realtime?

Not that sea surface height isn't important, but I do not think this is an adequate replacement for QuikScat, nor even much of a supplement to it.

This is not a scatterometer.

Link
This from FOX NEWS


Scientists skeptical of the assertion that climate change is the result of man's activites are criticizing a recent Associated Press report on global warming, calling it "irrational hysteria," "horrifically bad" and "incredibly biased."

They say the report, which was published on Monday, contained sweeping scientific errors and was a one-sided portrayal of a complicated issue.

"If the issues weren't so serious and the ramifications so profound, I would have to laugh at it," said David Deming, a geology professor at the University of Oklahoma who has been critical of media reporting on the climate change issue.

In the article, Obama Left with Little Time to Curb Global Warming, AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein wrote that global warming is "a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid," and that "global warming is accelerating."

Deming, in an interview, took issue with Borenstein's characterization of a problem he says doesn't exist.

"He says global warming is accelerating. Not only is it continuing, it's accelerating, and whether it's continuing that was completely beyond the evidence," Deming told FOXNews.com.

"The mean global temperature, at least as measured by satellite, is now the same as it was in the year 1980. In the last couple of years sea level has stopped rising. Hurricane and cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is at a 24-year low and sea ice globally is also the same as it was in 1980."

Deming said the article is further evidence of the media's decision to talk about global warming as fact, despite what he says is a lack of evidence.

"Reporters, as I understand reporters, are supposed to report facts,"Deming said. "What he's doing here is he's writing a polemic and reporting it as fact, and that's not right. It's not reporting. It's propaganda.

"This reads like a press release for an environmental advocacy group like Greenpeace. It's not fair and balanced."

A spokesman for the Associated Press said that the news agency stands by its story. "It%u2019s a news story, based on fact and the clearly expressed views of President-elect Barack Obama and others," spokesman Paul Colford told FOXNews.com in an e-mail.

Michael R. Fox, a retired nuclear scientist and chemistry professor from the University of Idaho, is another academic who found serious flaws with the AP story's approach to the issue.

"There's very little that's right about it," Fox said. "And it's really harmful to the United States because people like this Borenstein working for AP have an enormous impact on everyone, because AP sells their news service to a thousand news outlets.

"One guy like him can be very destructive and alarming. Yeah it's freedom of speech, but its dishonest."

Like Deming, Fox said global warming is not accelerating. "These kinds of temperatures cycle up and down and have been doing so for millions of years," he said.

He said there is little evidence to believe that man-made carbon dioxide is causing temperature fluctuation. "It's silly to lay it all on man-made carbon dioxide," Fox said. "It was El Nino in 1998 that caused the big spike in global warming and little to do with carbon dioxide."

Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations in the solar magnetic field and solar irradiation, could all be affecting temperature changes, he said.

James O'Brien, an emeritus professor at Florida State University who studies climate variability and the oceans, said that global climate change is very important for the country and that Americans need to make sure they have the right answers for policy decisions. But he said he worries that scientists and policymakers are rushing to make changes based on bad science.

"Global climate change is occurring in many places in the world," O'Brien said. "But everything that's attributed to global warming, almost none of it is global warming."

He took issue with the AP article's assertion that melting Arctic ice will cause global sea levels to rise.

"When the Arctic Ocean ice melts, it never raises sea level because floating ice is floating ice, because it's displacing water," O'Brien said. "When the ice melts, sea level actually goes down.

"I call it a fourth grade science experiment. Take a glass, put some ice in it. Put water in it. Mark level where water is. Let it met. After the ice melts, the sea level didn't go up in your glass of water. It's called the Archimedes Principle."

He called sea level changes a "major scare tactic used by the global warming people."

O'Brien said he doesn't discount the potential effects man is having on the environment, but he cautioned that government should not make hasty decisions.

"There is no question that the Obama administration is green and I'm green, and there's no question that they're going to really take a careful look at what we need to do and attack problems, and I applaud that," O'Brien said.

"But I'm really concerned that they're going to spend all the money on implementation of mitigation, rather than supporting the science."










Quoting all4hurricanes:

That happens too much an inevitable disaster is swept under the rug. Katrina was theorized before it hit, I remeber a show about it nicknaming Katrina "Pam" and nobody cared until it happened. Then a week after Katrina hit I saw a show about Hurricane X a major hurricane that hit New York.

It appears that large holes are now appearing in Earth's magnetic field. See the articles on space.com and livescience.com. There has been one study suggesting a link between global warming and earthquakes, but it's only a hypothesis right now. There are many future events that could threaten Earth's civilization locally and globally. GW is the most imminent one. Every year finds new data pointing closer to the cunclusion that we've underestimated the effects of GW. Just this year, methane clathrate releases began to be observed by the AGU and now they're saying summer Arctic sea ice could be gone by 2013! This doesn't leave us much time to cope with GW. A major extinction event is due to occur in our lifetimes. Hurricanes will be affected, but since this is a very complex mechanism, there's still a lot we don't know.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

It appears that large holes are now appearing in Earth's magnetic field. See the articles on space.com and livescience.com. There has been one study suggesting a link between global warming and earthquakes, but it's only a hypothesis right now. There are many future events that could threaten Earth's civilization locally and globally. GW is the most imminent one. Every year finds new data pointing closer to the cunclusion that we've underestimated the effects of GW. Just this year, methane clathrate releases began to be observed by the AGU and now they're saying summer Arctic sea ice could be gone by 2013! This doesn't leave us much time to cope with GW. A major extinction event is due to occur in our lifetimes. Hurricanes will be affected, but since this is a very complex mechanism, there's still a lot we don't know.

I wouldn't say mass extinction in our life time I think GW is to slow for that but sometime later if we don't stop it. There are a lot of doomsday scenarios and anyone of which could occur but in the past 100 years the Worst case scenario never really happened except possibly 2004 Tsunami and Nargis. And your right about us not knowing the effect of GW on hurricanes one of my friends who was foolish enough to bring up the topic of weather to me said that GW would definitely cause an increase in hurricanes although the opposite could occur.
Re: PensacolaDoug:

Nobody is attributing sea level rise to the melt of the Arctic Ocean. It's the land-based ice caps like Greenland and Antarctica that contribute to sea level rise, as well as other factors such as thermal expansion and glacial melt. Most people who try to debunk AGW use, to some degree, points that are at least partially moot.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I wouldn't say mass extinction in our life time I think GW is to slow for that but sometime later if we don't stop it. There are a lot of doomsday scenarios and anyone of which could occur but in the past 100 years the Worst case scenario never really happened except possibly 2004 Tsunami and Nargis. And your right about us not knowing the effect of GW on hurricanes one of my friends who was foolish enough to bring up the topic of weather to me said that GW would definitely cause an increase in hurricanes although the opposite could occur.

Actually, no. GW is no longer expected to be a gradual or slow process. More recent data suggests it will be enforced by a series of "tipping points". We've reached some of them already. A report says that "15-37% of all plant and animal species will be 'commited to extinction' by 2050". I estimate, from that report, that about 50% of species will be extinct 100 years from now. By comparison, the Cretateous-Tertiary mass extinction, the one that killed the dinosaurs, saw about 60% of species going extinct, and in a timescale of about 100,000 years. This, in about a century, will surely qualify as a mass extinction, no?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This from FOX NEWS


Scientists skeptical of the assertion that climate change is the result of man's activites are criticizing a recent Associated Press report on global warming, calling it "irrational hysteria," "horrifically bad" and "incredibly biased."

They say the report, which was published on Monday, contained sweeping scientific errors and was a one-sided portrayal of a complicated issue.

BR>









YOu know, part of my problem with the so-called "anti-MMGW crowd is that they are constantly clamouring about the "bad science" of their foes, but never seem to have much "good science" to counteract it. Comments such as the ones above, or calling another scientist and his work "silly" make the speaker look and sound like disgruntled bloggers. That's not commentary I can respect. Then to tell me that hurricane incidence is at a 24 year low when world wide things are pretty much the same as they have been since the start of the lastest active period is a way to make me doubt your analysis of the GW data. While I agree there is too much at stake to move foreward without further intensive study of world systems, I have to admit my agreement is not coming about because of what THESE scientists seem to be saying. Frankly I've seen more erudite and scientifically based commentary on both sides of the argument here in our very own blog . . ..
What I do hope President Obama will bring to the adminstration's approach to GW is a fresh sense of exploring all possibilities, including that man may NOT be causing the GW, with a view to mitigating against them. If we have species whose habitats are likely to change radically over the next 50 years, do we know which species they are? Do we have a way of preserving either them or their habitat? Do we need to start now moving NY and NOLA further onshore before they become little more than tourist towns? Or should we be more concerned about intensified desertification on the interiors of our continents?

Maybe we'll get a good start to looking at and answering these questions and others like them, instead of squabbling about the facts that are out there.

The questions about melting and methane release and shifting pressures seem to be ones that may be worth considering. Consider that the 2004 tsunami happened in a zone that the average person didn't realize WAS an earthquake zone. Do we know everything we need to know? Hurricane science is proving otherwise.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What I do hope President Obama will bring to the adminstration's approach to GW is a fresh sense of exploring all possibilities, including that man may NOT be causing the GW, with a view to mitigating against them. If we have species whose habitats are likely to change radically over the next 50 years, do we know which species they are? Do we have a way of preserving either them or their habitat? Do we need to start now moving NY and NOLA further onshore before they become little more than tourist towns? Or should we be more concerned about intensified desertification on the interiors of our continents?

Maybe we'll get a good start to looking at and answering these questions and others like them, instead of squabbling about the facts that are out there.

The questions about melting and methane release and shifting pressures seem to be ones that may be worth considering. Consider that the 2004 tsunami happened in a zone that the average person didn't realize WAS an earthquake zone. Do we know everything we need to know? Hurricane science is proving otherwise.


Read my eight-paragraph comment on LiveScience.com, "Thousands Negotiate New Climate Treaty". I'm AstroHurricane001 on there as well and I have the same display pic. There's also another article, which I also commented on, that lists 10 animal species "you can kiss goodbye".
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Actually, no. GW is no longer expected to be a gradual or slow process. More recent data suggests it will be enforced by a series of "tipping points". We've reached some of them already. A report says that "15-37% of all plant and animal species will be 'commited to extinction' by 2050". I estimate, from that report, that about 50% of species will be extinct 100 years from now. By comparison, the Cretateous-Tertiary mass extinction, the one that killed the dinosaurs, saw about 60% of species going extinct, and in a timescale of about 100,000 years. This, in about a century, will surely qualify as a mass extinction, no?

Sorry I was being selfish and was only thinking you all meant human mass extinction but that does technically count as mass extinction, still I think people have been contributing to some sort of mass extinction long before GW
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Actually, no. GW is no longer expected to be a gradual or slow process. More recent data suggests it will be enforced by a series of "tipping points". We've reached some of them already. A report says that "15-37% of all plant and animal species will be 'commited to extinction' by 2050". I estimate, from that report, that about 50% of species will be extinct 100 years from now. By comparison, the Cretateous-Tertiary mass extinction, the one that killed the dinosaurs, saw about 60% of species going extinct, and in a timescale of about 100,000 years. This, in about a century, will surely qualify as a mass extinction, no?
It was an asteroid that was responsible for the dino extinction. Personally,I think they may well have died of old age in addition to a dwindling food supply. With cooler temps it's quite common even now for only one sex to hatch. If there is only one sex, then the species dies with the oldest remaining. We'll never know.
When I was born there were 2 billion people on this planet and now there are 6.6 billion. Can we again tripple that to almost 20 billion by 2050? How do we get a handle on this when it is mostly the underdeveloped countries that are responsible for the majority? Loss of habitat and chemical pollutants will score a heavier blow than GW by far. Definetly stressed and weakened for any GW affect to accelerate. Your 50% guess is as good as any,especially where amphibians are involved.
Bottom line, my friend, society ain't gonna do nothing to change until the price of oil forces them to. It won't be from their love of Mother Terra, it will be their love of the dollar.
And then ....there's this place called China. LOL
Quoting all4hurricanes:

they have active and inactive years in the cycle too they and what I've seen they tend to oppose each other so our active cycle means their inactive cycle. You need to look at more than 30 years for hurricane stats

Yes I know that...and the E Pacific and the Atlantic are very closely correlated. El Ninos in the Eastern Pacific --- active hurricane season and vice versa. This has been known for years. I would like to the see the cycle between the 1930s and the 1970s. I bet you would have seen a decline in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.
Just a thought.

Link
Hello all.
Good discussion on the GW thing earlier.
Good points, no crap. Nice.

Lovely evening here, was sitting outside looking at the stars and counting satelites with grandsons. Saw 5. Then Mother came home and spoiled all the fun ! " Its time for bed".
Link

Just short term, but none the less interesting.

Link
anything going to happen with that atlantic low?
Nice to see some folks around - you are missing a great adventure story on Rob's blog - run away meerkats being chased by commando squirrels.

Also - check out the santa's on my blog - and add your own - should be a nice collection by Christmas Eve!

Pssst - heard a rumor that Orca is being dropped back into the snow tomorrow - bet he won't be happy.
Quoting theshepherd:
I think you'll find that most global warming sites are incapable of original thoughts. There only claim to fame is posting more graphs and charts than the next guy and feeling good about themselves for doing so.
Of course, facts are facts. The Artic ice sheet has diminished,the oceans are rising and warmer and appear to be more acidic and global climate as a whole has shown an upward trend.If the earth is warming it also must be expanding.
However, you won't find any discussion as to how this weight redistribution/exspansion can effect plate migration rates and earthquake and volcanic activity increases.
Life as we know it could end tomorrow. No one can dispute that with scientific data. No one can dispute with scientific data that sun spots won't remain low for the next hundred years.
Yellowstone could well have been the next Toba had the hotspot not migrated east beneath heavier structure.
Your thoughts of volcanic activity will get swept under the rug as "ain't gonna happen" and your attention diverted elsewhere. LOL


The Earth may in fact be growing.
Link
I have seen Highs before but, wow...lol

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20082009
4:00 AM Reunion December 17 2008
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 10.8S 66.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gust of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Squally weather exist within 90 NM radius from the center extending up to 200 NM in the eastern semi-circle within a convergence line between 5S to 12S from 71E to 84E.

Near Gale-force winds 20 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 12.7S 65.4E - 35 knots (Tempete Tropicale Modere%uFFFD
48 HRS: 13.7S 63.2E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 14.4S 61.1E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================
The deep convective cell existing since 1500z has probably allowed to intensify within the recent past 6 hours. TRMM 2001z swath confirms an existing low level circulation center under the main cluster (CF 37H), this system evolves within a neutral environment: Wind shear is weak, divergence is good poleward but weak equatorward, low level inflow is established poleward but remains weak equatorward. System is expected to keep on tracking southwest within the next 12 hours then recurve west-southwest on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures.

A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE NORTHERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER ON THE FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
xmas high temp. for west palm went down to 68....low friday morning after 53...do the models show a somewhat major front moving through that time period?
Here is more on GW!


The Day After (Inauguration)

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Monday, December 15, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Climate Change: The Associated Press warns that the new administration won't have much time to save the planet from a global warming apocalypse. Never mind that the "ticking time bomb" is a dud.

The temperature at Denver International Airport dropped to 18 below zero on Sunday, breaking the previous record of 14 below set in 1901. White Sulphur Springs, Mont., reported 29 below to the National Weather Service, breaking the record of 17 below set in 1922. Meanwhile, ice storms ravage the Northeast and the upper Midwest.

This is not a local phenomenon. Hong Kong had the second-longest cold spell since 1885. Cold in northern Vietnam destroyed 40% of the rice crop and killed 33,000 head of livestock. The British Parliament debated climate change as London experienced the first October snow since 1934.

Presumably this has all been reported by the Associated Press. But according to a weekend AP report, this is all an illusion and "2008 is on a pace to be a slightly cooler year in a steadily rising temperature trend line." Rather than being "evidence of some kind of cooling trend, it actually illustrates how fast the world is warming." Oh.

The report, which includes no comments from any skeptic, says global warming "is a ticking time-bomb that President-elect Obama can't avoid." It warns "warming is accelerating. Time is running out, and Obama knows it." Especially if he relies on AP wire reports.

Problem is, nature didn't get the memo. Geophysicist David Deming found that for the first time since the 18th century, in the days before SUVs, Alaskan glaciers grew this year instead of retreating. Fairbanks had its fourth coldest October in 104 years of records.

U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia reported: "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July." It was the worst summer he'd seen in two decades.

As the Anchorage Daily News reports, "Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Ice Field witnessed the kind if snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too."

The consequence of melting glaciers and sea ice is supposed to be rising sea levels. The poster children for this phenomenon are low-lying coral islands such as the Maldives and Tuvalu. Again, the facts are ignored in the quest for headlines.

The satellite record shows the sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993, when the $100 million international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began.

As in other places around the world, sea-level changes have many natural explanations, including geologic changes in the land.

The atolls of Tuvalu rest on sinking volcanic rock on top of which new coral grows to replace the coral die-off that occurs as the volcanic rock sinks deeper into the ocean where coral does not survive. Sand is excavated for building material on Tuvalu. Excavation for building material has eroded the beach, thus giving to the casual, or biased, observer the impression of rising sea levels.

The strong El Nino of 1997-98 caused the sea level surrounding Tuvalu to drop just over one foot.

Patrick Michaels, a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and visiting scientist with the Marshall Institute in Washington, D.C., notes that Tuvalu is near the epicenter of a region where the sea level has been declining for nearly 50 years. He has written that the decline has been so steep that, even accepting the U.N.'s median estimates of global warming over the next hundred years, Tuvalu would not return to its 1950 sea level until 2050, much less disappear under the sea.

None of this, of course, matters to the warming zealots and some major media outlets. If it's too dry or too wet, too hot or too cold, everything is caused by global warming. We believe, as do many reputable scientists, that the warming and cooling of the earth is a natural phenomenon dictated by forces beyond our control, from ocean currents to solar activity. We needn't worry about one day mooring our boats to the Washington Monument.
Yo pot.
Those grandsons will always remember tonight.
Never miss the opportinity amigo.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I have seen Highs before but, wow...lol

Wow! Hope all is well with you Tampa
Here's your (low) the models have been harping on for a few days now...

Wondering if this could become the 1st Cyclone of Aussie 08/09 season.



Cheers AussieStorm
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NON-TROPICAL LOW...1010
MB...NEAR 26N56W
WILL TRACK SW TO WSW TO 25N62W WED AFTERNOON
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATE THU OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.
Link


QuikScat showing circulation near 26N x 57W
Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
I have seen Highs before but, wow...lol



How current is this image? This is great for wind surfing!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I have seen Highs before but, wow...lol



ROFLMAO!!! headache time!!!
Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature
The broadening of the Atlantic hurricane season found was strongly dependent upon Sea Surface Temperatures. Both the onset and end of hurricane season shifted by 20 days per degree C of warming of the SST. With global warming projected to increase tropical Atlantic SSTs 1-2°C by the end of the century, can we then expect a 40-80 day increase in the length of hurricane season? Dr. Kossin doesn't explore this possibility, and doesn't blame the observed increase in the length of the season on human-caused global warming of the oceans. There is reason to believe that future warming of the Atlantic SSTs won't necessarily continue to broaden the length of hurricane season at the rate Kossin suggests has occurred. Papers by Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (2008) theorize that as SSTs warm, the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form will also increase. The current minimum temperature of 26.5°C (80°F) may increase to 28.5°C for a 2°C warming of Atlantic SSTs. Furthermore, Kossin's results apply only to the Atlantic Ocean, and it is uncertain whether or not hurricane season is changing in length in other ocean basins. -Jeff Masters


Why is that?
Quoting hurristat:
Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature
The broadening of the Atlantic hurricane season found was strongly dependent upon Sea Surface Temperatures. Both the onset and end of hurricane season shifted by 20 days per degree C of warming of the SST. With global warming projected to increase tropical Atlantic SSTs 1-2°C by the end of the century, can we then expect a 40-80 day increase in the length of hurricane season? Dr. Kossin doesn't explore this possibility, and doesn't blame the observed increase in the length of the season on human-caused global warming of the oceans. There is reason to believe that future warming of the Atlantic SSTs won't necessarily continue to broaden the length of hurricane season at the rate Kossin suggests has occurred. Papers by Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (2008) theorize that as SSTs warm, the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form will also increase. The current minimum temperature of 26.5°C (80°F) may increase to 28.5°C for a 2°C warming of Atlantic SSTs. Furthermore, Kossin's results apply only to the Atlantic Ocean, and it is uncertain whether or not hurricane season is changing in length in other ocean basins. -Jeff Masters


Why is that?
Why, to which statement?
please send a hurricane my way this week...what a crap day.

and yes, i'm wishcasting.
Your Christmas song for the night...

Quoting theshepherd:
Why, to which statement?


Why is it that the threshold rises?
Quoting MissNadia:
Here is more on GW!


LOL... That is totally insane; most of the stuff mentioned there is false (and a few days of cold weather doesn't mean anything; after all, weather is not climate).

Example (notice the overall temperature anomaly; this isn't Hong Kong but it is right next to it, from here):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(wow - look at all of the heat waves they had this year!)

Denver too:



Just gibberish posted by some idiot... probably funded by Big Oil (indeed; check this out for info on the so-called scientists who say global warming isn't happening).
Also, as for this year being a little cooler than recent years, you can find an unbiased report about that here (from scientists, so no media corruption). The following explains why this is the case:



(not to mention that one year a trend does not make, plus anybody can see that there are a lot of squiggles, just like on those temperature graphs in my last comment)

Many areas were even warmer this year than the last seven years (a notable exception is North America):





The bigger news should be this:

Very warm 2008 makes this the hottest decade in recorded history by far*

The climate story of the decade is that the 2000s are on track to be nearly 0.2°C warmer than the 1990s. And that temperature jump is especially worrisome since the 1990s were only 0.14°C warmer than the 1980s (see datasets here). Global warming is accelerating, as predicted.


Of course, many are still going to deny that (check here as well)

Oh, and this gem too where scientists complain about media corruption.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What I do hope President Obama will bring to the adminstration's approach to GW is a fresh sense of exploring all possibilities, including that man may NOT be causing the GW,


Believe it or not, the possibility of natural cycles was one of the very first things scientists looked at, and because no natural cycles can explain what is happening (it is virtually certain that there isn't any cycle that we haven't discovered yet that can explain what is happening), it had to be something else. Indeed, studying past climate change was absolutely necessary for them to arrive at the conclusions today (e.g. determining the relative influences of natural cycles, including greenhouse gasses; also, one use of models is to try to simulate the past climate as closely as possible, enabling us to determine just how much each factor influences climate); the best analog for today is probably the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, where large amounts of greenhouse gasses, in similar amounts to the fossil fuel reserves present today, caused warming of around 6*C, resulting in mass extinctions (and also ocean acidification).
I wonder why articles that say "oh, look at how cold it is! Global warming is a fraud!!!" never point out record warm or unusual warm spells? Hmmm... now that is definite bias and corruption...

For example, it was nice and toasty in Montana not too long ago (this is only through the 9th, but you can see that they had a few similarly cold days in January, and overall more warm than cold)

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Also, they definitely aren't complaining about the cold in Moscow (and many other areas of the globe); they haven't had any below normal days for more than two months now; the 31 day mean is currently close to 7 degrees Celsius above normal:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(also note that even though last winter was warm as well they did have a cold wave in mid-January - certainly nothing to hype up past all reason though)

Of course, not everywhere can be warm at the same time (until global temperatures rise far higher than today and even then they can use, say, 2071-2100 normals, thus have below normal temperatures). Here is an example, during the U.S.'s warmest January on record - Russia sure wasn't warm then (indeed, scores were freezing to death over there, as reported by the media):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Thanks Geoffrey -

I could use some xmas tunes...but so reflective and worried for people. And our family too.

Bureau of Meteorology in Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK WESTERN AUSTRALIA 110E-125E
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 17th of December 2008
===========================================
A developing Tropical Low [1002 hPa] is situated north of the Kimberley in the Timor Sea. At midday it was near 12.5S 127.0E, about 220 km north-northeast of Kalumburu and moving towards the south at about 8 km/h. The low is expected to move slowly towards the southwest during the next few days, towards the north Kimberley coast.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=====================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: High
Saturday: High
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ONE
TROPICAL LOW (02U)
4:00 PM Austialia CST December 17 2008
=====================================

At 12:30 PM Australian CST, a Tropical Low [1004 hPa] located at 12.5S 127.0E, or 205 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 420 kilometres west of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots towards Kimberley coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing close to the north Kimberley coast on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=========================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo Island in WA to the Western Australia/Northern Territory Border.


BOM Darwin is showing a slight possibility of Tropical Cyclone Billy just before landfall
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NON-TROPICAL LOW...1010
MB...NEAR 26N56W
WILL TRACK SW TO WSW TO 25N62W WED AFTERNOON
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATE THU OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.
Link


QuikScat showing circulation near 26N x 57W
Link


STS Rene?!
Is our not-Rene in the Mid-Atlantic now Because i think that low looks like it has potential
It occurred to me we might not have enough data. Just Fifty years ago we missed or looked over lots of storms even full-blown hurricanes until re-analysis and 100 years ago we missed out on cat 2 and 3s and didn't find them at re-analysis so I think a few late season and early season storms weren't recorded
Good Morning from N.C.
53F and forecast to be 70F today
Must be GW!!!!!!
Cloudy all day
Goodmoring all. going to be 80 here today. wow, where did my winter go. I know we don't have alot of snow here in Elkton but maybee some frost would be nice!
More November numbers are out.. It was the 6th warmest November for the Northern Hemisphere since 1880. Link for the ncdc climate anylisis isn't working for me.. NOAA does have their monthly write up out.. 4th warmest globally.
Here's a few 2008 highlights from NOAA..

Arctic sea ice extent in 2008 reached its second lowest melt season extent on record in September. The minimum of 1.74 million square miles (4.52 million square kilometers) reached on September 12 was 0.86 million square miles (2.24 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average minimum extent.


The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most costly on record in current dollars, after 2005 and 2004, and the fourth most active year since 1944. This was the first season with a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) each month from July through November. With the exception of the South Indian Ocean, all other tropical cyclone regions recorded near to below-average activity during 2008. Globally, there were 89 named tropical cyclones, with 41 reaching the equivalent of hurricane strength (74 mph), and 20 achieving the equivalent of major hurricane status (111 mph or greater) based on the Saffir-Simpson scale.


The United States recorded a preliminary total of just under 1,700 tornadoes from January - November. This ranks 2008 second behind 2004 for the most tornadoes in a year, since reliable records began in 1953.


Torrential rains caused widespread flooding in parts of Vietnam, Ethiopia, northern Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, and the northern Philippines during November. Several million people were displaced and nearly 200 fatalities were reported. Monsoonal rainfall was much above average over many regions in 2008. Mumbai, India, recorded its greatest June rainfall in seven years, while Hanoi, Vietnam, observed its greatest October rains since 1984
Quoting hurristat:


Why is it that the threshold rises?
The threshold extends, not rises according to Dr Gossin. And he admitts the uncertainty of the relationship is high. To wit: warmer water allows a storm to form in cooler air temps.
Excluding the Paciffic and other oceans "may" lead to conjecture by opponents that either the SST's are not rising universely or either his theory is hogwash.
He should have completed his homework.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ONE
TROPICAL LOW (02U)
4:00 PM Austialia CST December 17 2008
=====================================

At 12:30 PM Australian CST, a Tropical Low [1004 hPa] located at 12.5S 127.0E, or 205 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 420 kilometres west of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots towards Kimberley coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing close to the north Kimberley coast on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=========================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo Island in WA to the Western Australia/Northern Territory Border.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:10 pm Australian CST [10:40 pm WDT] Wednesday 17 December 2008

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island
communities from Cockatoo Island to WA/NT Border.

At 9:30 pm Australian CST [9:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 190 kilometres
north northeast of Kalumburu and 370 kilometres west of Darwin, moving slowly
south towards the Kimberley coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing close to the north
Kimberley coast on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the
next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [9:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 127.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 18 December [4:30 am WDT
Thursday 18 December].

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


BOM Darwin is showing a slight possibility of Tropical Cyclone Billy just before landfall

Updated
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


BOM Darwin is showing a slight possibility of Tropical Cyclone Billy just before landfall
Will it be Tropical Cyclone Billy or Tropical Cyclone Anika ???
Cyclone fears prompt offshore rig evacuation
Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 14:40 EDT

Oil and gas exploration workers have been evacuated from offshore rigs in preparation for a possible cyclone off the Western Australian coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring a weak low between Timor and the Tiwi Islands, off the north Australian coastline.

The bureau says it could develop into a cyclone within the next few days.

Port authorities in Broome say four companies have begun moving workers from offshore rigs.

- ABC
Not too much warming in Great Falls for the last 100 years...

Link
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Just gibberish posted by some idiot... probably funded by Big Oil (indeed; check this out for info on the so-called scientists who say global warming isn't happening).


Isn't it amazing that every single "skeptic" as you like to call them, is funded by "Big Oil"? It's easy to dismiss something and say that it's automatically funded by some imaginary group, such as "Big Oil," rather than do the research and find out that it's from normal, every day climate scientists who just don't buy in to the load of garbage that media outlets like to report because it makes for some exciting headlines.

What's even more ridiculous is that you follow that up with a review on those climate scientists by referring us to a report from "The Daily Green." Hmm...that's a pretty objective source isn't it? I wonder where they get their funding from? Is there a "Big Solar" or "Big Green" out there that I can complain about?

Please save your ridiculous comments about "Big Oil" and how it funds everything with a view contrary to yours. I'm sure your Al Gore-led support group would be glad to hear them.
'Death map' shows heat a big hazard to Americans 17 Dec 2008 00:00:17 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Heat is more likely to kill an American than an earthquake, and thunderstorms kill more people than hurricanes do, according to a U.S. "death map" published on Tuesday.

Researchers who compiled the county-by-county look at what natural disasters kill Americans said they hope their study will help emergency preparedness officials plan better.

Heat and drought caused 19.6 percent of total deaths from natural hazards, with summer thunderstorms causing 18.8 percent and winter weather causing 18.1 percent, the team at the University of South Carolina found.

Earthquakes, wildfires and hurricanes combined were responsible for fewer than 5 percent of all hazard deaths.

Writing in BioMed Central's International Journal of Health Geographics, they said they hoped to dispel some myths about what the biggest threats to life and limb are.

"According to our results, the answer is heat," Susan Cutter and Kevin Borden of the University of South Carolina wrote in their report, which gathered data from 1970 to 2004.

"I think what most people would think, if you say what is the major cause of death and destruction, they would say hurricanes and earthquakes and flooding," Cutter said in a telephone interview. "They wouldn't say heat."

"What is noteworthy here is that over time, highly destructive, highly publicized, often-catastrophic singular events such as hurricanes and earthquakes are responsible for relatively few deaths when compared to the more frequent, less catastrophic such as heat waves and severe weather," they wrote.

The most dangerous places to live are much of the South, because of the heat risk, the hurricane coasts and the Great Plains states with their severe weather, Cutter said.

The south-central United States is also a dangerous area, with floods and tornadoes.

California is relatively safe, they found.

"It illustrates the impact of better building codes in seismically prone areas because the fatalities in earthquakes have gone down from 1900 because things don't collapse on people any more," Cutter said.
NOAA and NASA Estimate 2008 will be 9th Warmest for the Globe - Don’t Buy It

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

Though it doesn’t rank with the Bernie Madhoff’s Ponzi scheme, it is nonetheless criminal at a time when important decisions are about to be made that will affect our way of living and economic well-being.

According to a NOAA Press Release yesterday, NCDC’s ranking of 2008 as ninth warmest if expected trends continue compares to a similar ranking of ninth warmest based on an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The NASA analysis indicates that the January-November global temperature was 0.76 degree F (0.42 degree C) above the 20th century mean. The NOAA and NASA analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use data from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center - the federal government’s official source for climate data.

Don’t believe a word of it. UAH MSU satellite data suggest 2008 will end up about the 15th warmest (16th coldest) in their 30 years of lower tropospheric data. The NASA, NOAA and Hadley data bases are seriously contaminated and the agencies are intentionally ignoring the issues as they are agenda driven with inflated budgets because of the alleged global warming.

NOAA has actually gone as far as to pull out the urbanization (urban heat island or UHI) adjustment from the US data and there is very little to no urban adjustment made to the global data based on the flawed papers by Peterson and Parker which suggest UHI has little effect on global trends. Ignored are the many other papers from some of the worlds best climatologists worldwide that suggest it produces significant contamination.

Add to that the fact that more than 2/3rds of the world’s stations (most rural) have dropped out and or are often missing monthly data, 69% of the first nearly 600 US stations evaluated by Anthony Watts surface stations.org are poor or very poorly sited with only 4% meeting official standards and no changes were made for the known biases of new instrumentation.

Not less than half a dozen peer reviewed papers have suggested the warming is exaggerated by up to 50%. This would put 2008 somewhere nearer the middle of the pack of the 114+ years in the global data bases not near the top. It also belies the claim that the 10 warmest years have occurred in the last dozen years. Read more here on the important data integrity issue.



...if that link to the PDF fails to open, just copy and paste this address in your browser:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DataIntegrity.doc
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review.....
Merry Christmas everyone!
TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Clearly a closed surface low:

Link

95. P451
Scientists call GW hysteria

Scientists prove GW exists


What I want to know is why so many scientists disagree on what is happening. To me that means nothing has been proven one way or another beyond a reasonable doubt.

I also maintain the data pools are corrupt given we haven't been able to record worldwide weather so well over the years. Reliable data truly only extends about 15 years into the past. Beyond that we have no real picture of reliable data.

We're trying to compare data collected 150+ years ago to reliable satellite information and automated weather stations of today and want to draw a conclusion from that. I'm not so sure you can do that in a reliable manner.

Maybe that's what causes the overall conflict between scientists?

96. P451
Nothing impressive on the Satellite though. Link

It's not going to have an endless window of opportunity here.


Meanwhile the models seem to want to predict a pretty major snow storm for the north east this coming weekend. Anyone got a feeling about it?

Attention all hands!!!!


I just met Stormjunkie, Jr.

....quite a handsome young man....doesn't look a thing like his father....
Quoting mixade:


Isn't it amazing that every single "skeptic" as you like to call them, is funded by "Big Oil"? It's easy to dismiss something and say that it's automatically funded by some imaginary group, such as "Big Oil," rather than do the research and find out that it's from normal, every day climate scientists who just don't buy in to the load of garbage that media outlets like to report because it makes for some exciting headlines.

What's even more ridiculous is that you follow that up with a review on those climate scientists by referring us to a report from "The Daily Green." Hmm...that's a pretty objective source isn't it? I wonder where they get their funding from? Is there a "Big Solar" or "Big Green" out there that I can complain about?

Please save your ridiculous comments about "Big Oil" and how it funds everything with a view contrary to yours. I'm sure your Al Gore-led support group would be glad to hear them.


ROTFLMAO... I feel so sorry for you... NOT... LOL...

Everything that I have heard only supports a few dozen scientists who oppose global warming, and even then, many of them don't totally deny it. I am also not lead by Al Gore; indeed, I don't even read anything he says (I have never seen any of his movies either, since Al Gore is not a climate scientist and I prefer to read what the scientists say). Ya ought to get the facts straight... start here to read up on the history of the science... not that you will or care to do so because it violates your religious views... LOL

Good-bye, MixedUpSod; #61!
Oh, that reminds me:

Cyberspace has buried its head in a cesspit of climate change gibberish
The Stansted protesters get it. The politicians of Poznan don't quite. But online, planted deniers drive a blinkered fiction

We all create our own reality, and shut out the voices we do not want to hear. But there is no issue we are less willing to entertain than man-made climate change. Here, three worlds seem to exist in virtual isolation. In the physical world, global warming appears to be spilling over into runaway feedback: the most dangerous situation humankind has ever encountered. In the political world - at the climate talks in Poznan, for instance - our governments seem to be responding to something quite different, a minor nuisance that can be addressed in due course. Only the Plane Stupid protesters who occupied part of Stansted airport yesterday appear to have understood the scale and speed of this crisis. In cyberspace, by contrast, the response spreading fastest and furthest is flat-out denial.

The most popular article on the Guardian's website last week was the report showing that 2008 is likely to be the coolest year since 2000. As the Met Office predicted, global temperatures have been held down by the La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean. This news prompted a race on the Guardian's comment thread to reach the outer limits of idiocy. Of the 440 responses posted by lunchtime yesterday, about 80% insisted that manmade climate change is a hoax. Here's a sample of the conversation:

"This is a scam to get your money ... The only people buying into 'global warming' have no experience with any of the sciences."

"If we spend any money or cost one person their job because of this fraud it would be a crime. When will one of our politicians stand up and call this for what it is, bullshit!"

"What a set of jokers these professors are ... I think I understand more about climate change than them and I don't get paid a big fat salary with all the perks to go with it."

And so on, and on and on. The new figures have prompted similar observations all over the web. Until now, the "sceptics" have assured us that you can't believe the temperature readings at all; that the scientists at the Met Office, who produced the latest figures, are all liars; and that even if it were true that temperatures have risen, it doesn't mean anything. Now the temperature record - though only for 2008 - can suddenly be trusted, and the widest possible inferences be drawn from the latest figures, though not, of course, from the records of the preceding century. This is madness.

Scrambled up in these comment threads are the memes planted in the public mind by the professional deniers employed by fossil fuel companies. On the Guardian's forums, you'll find endless claims that the hockeystick graph of global temperatures has been debunked; that sunspots are largely responsible for current temperature changes; that the world's glaciers are advancing; that global warming theory depends entirely on computer models; that most climate scientists in the 1970s were predicting a new ice age. None of this is true, but it doesn't matter. The professional deniers are paid not to win the argument but to cause as much confusion and delay as possible. To judge by the Comment threads, they have succeeded magnificently.

There is no pool so shallow that a thousand bloggers won't drown in it. Take the latest claims from the former broadcaster David Bellamy. You may remember that Bellamy came famously unstuck three years ago when he stated that 555 of the 625 glaciers being observed by the World Glacier Monitoring Service were growing. Now he has made an even stranger allegation. In early November the Express ran an interview with Bellamy under the headline "BBC shunned me for denying climate change". "The sad fact is," he explained, "that since I said I didn't believe human beings caused global warming I've not been allowed to make a TV programme." He had been brave enough to state that global warming was "poppycock", and that caused the end of his career. "Back then, at the BBC you had to toe the line and I wasn't doing that."

This article, on the web, received more hits than almost anything else the Express has published; so 10 days ago the paper interviewed Bellamy again. He took the opportunity to explain just how far the conspiracy had spread. "Have you noticed there is a wind turbine on Teletubbies? That's subliminal advertising, isn't it?"

There is just one problem with this story: it is bollocks from start to finish. Bellamy last presented a programme on the BBC in 1994. The first time he publicly challenged the theory of manmade climate change was 10 years later, in 2004, when he claimed in the Daily Mail that it was "poppycock". Until at least the year 2000 he supported the theory.

In 1992, for instance, he signed an open letter, published in the Guardian, urging George Bush Sr "to fight global warming ... We are convinced that the continued emission of carbon dioxide at current rates could result in dramatic and devastating climate change in all regions of the world." In 1996 he signed a letter to the Times, arguing: "Continued increases in the global emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels are likely to lead to climate change at a rate greater than the Earth has experienced at any time during the last 10,000 years." In the same year he called for the replacement of fossil fuels with wind power. In 2000 he announced that he was supporting a plan to sue climate change "criminals": governments and industries that blocked attempts to stop global warming (all references are on my website). But Bellamy's new claims about the end of his career have been repeated as gospel in several newspapers and all over the web.

In his fascinating book Carbon Detox, George Marshall argues that people are not persuaded by information. Our views are formed by the views of the people with whom we mix. Of the narratives that might penetrate these circles, we are more likely to listen to those that offer us some reward. A story that tells us that the world is cooking and that we'll have to make sacrifices for the sake of future generations is less likely to be accepted than the more rewarding idea that climate change is a conspiracy hatched by scheming governments and venal scientists, and that strong, independent-minded people should unite to defend their freedoms.

He proposes that instead of arguing for sacrifice, environmentalists should show where the rewards might lie: that understanding what the science is saying and planning accordingly is the smart thing to do, which will protect your interests more effectively than flinging abuse at scientists. We should emphasise the old-fashioned virtues of uniting in the face of a crisis, of resourcefulness and community action. Projects like the transition towns network and proposals for a green new deal tell a story which people are more willing to hear.

Marshall is right: we have to change the way we talk about this issue. You don't believe me? Then just read the gibberish that follows when this article is published online.


Especially this blog in particular...
95 P451
Sophism exists in Science as well as Politics.
That's why we educate ourselves...LOL
Quoting presslord:
Attention all hands!!!!


I just met Stormjunkie, Jr.

....quite a handsome young man....doesn't look a thing like his father....
Yo press...
Good news. Skips a generation, huh???
STL,

Although many will never buy into what you post...thank you for doing a good job of showing actual data and reports to back it up.
Quoting Buhdog:
STL,

Although many will never buy into what you post...thank you for doing a good job of showing actual data and reports to back it up.
Please don't encourage him. He has 61 people on his "iggie" list here. Not fair to have to endure these rants without equal time. He has his own blog for that.
Quoting from Michael's posts...

We all create our own reality, and shut out the voices we do not want to hear

Yeah, that sounds kinda familiar...somewhat like the infamous ignore list.

Good-bye, MixedUpSod; #61!

Add to that the name-calling. And your attacks on entire groups...Christians,(actually you used the term creationist, which includes many more people than Christianity alone), Conservatives, and esentially any other group who's way of thinking does not mesh with your own.

Is it any wonder many of us just scroll through your posts? I know you won't read this because I am on your list "for Agreeing with a troll" (your exact words) I never said a thing bad about you...never even publically disagreed with you. Still I got on the list.

Just seems strange to me that you would post an article calling for a more open and productive dialog on the topic.
Quoting Buhdog:
STL,

Although many will never buy into what you post...thank you for doing a good job of showing actual data and reports to back it up.


Thanks



I also want to add - I am not the only one who gets peeved by the misreporting you often see by the media; the scientists don't like it either, as shown here (referring to failure to check facts) and here (reference to a glitch made in October data).
104 rob
He reads them all. Anyone that insecure would have to.
In his fascinating book Carbon Detox, George Marshall argues that people are not persuaded by information. Our views are formed by the views of the people with whom we mix. Of the narratives that might penetrate these circles, we are more likely to listen to those that offer us some reward. A story that tells us that the world is cooking and that we'll have to make sacrifices for the sake of future generations is less likely to be accepted than the more rewarding idea that climate change is a conspiracy hatched by scheming governments and venal scientists, and that strong, independent-minded people should unite to defend their freedoms.

He proposes that instead of arguing for sacrifice, environmentalists should show where the rewards might lie: that understanding what the science is saying and planning accordingly is the smart thing to do, which will protect your interests more effectively than flinging abuse at scientists. We should emphasise the old-fashioned virtues of uniting in the face of a crisis, of resourcefulness and community action. Projects like the transition towns network and proposals for a green new deal tell a story which people are more willing to hear.

Marshall is right: we have to change the way we talk about this issue.

I am in agreement w/Marshall MichaelSTL --

remember though you get more cooperation w/honey then venom

our present methods of energy, farming and lack of birth control hurt the planet..... GW or not. why do the humans insists on using products and methods that hurt the earth in any way. We need not to add to the earth's stress factor and we need to change our ways & think. "you dont "sh--" where you eat.
20 degrees below in some of the Northern States and 80 degrees in FLORIDA.... Guess what, I AM GLAD TO BE A GULFSTER..love this warming trend with sunny skies and light East wind.

If you want waves SWFL surfers...fill the tank and head to where the sun rises. Gulf waters 62 degrees.

Seems like the high pressure will dominate -- perhaps a front around 12/22..... looks iffy
Dr. Masters:

It seems to me that 1950 to 2007 was a period the ran from no satellite data to heavy satelite data. The heavy satellite coverage in recent years would tend to detect systems that otherwise would have not been known, particularly over the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic where ship traffic is less than in the Western half.

Also in the period from 1987-2007 when satellite coverage was good, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) went from the cold phase to the warm phase which might also influence the results.

Quoting presslord:
Attention all hands!!!!


I just met Stormjunkie, Jr.

....quite a handsome young man....doesn't look a thing like his father....
better not look like you either!!!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Thanks



I also want to add - I am not the only one who gets peeved by the misreporting you often see by the media; the scientists don't like it either, as shown here (referring to failure to check facts) and here (reference to a glitch made in October data).
The science may indeed be correct, Michael. But, that still does not give you the right to disrespect so many honorable people.
107 Surfmom
Well spoken. And respectfully so.
Just thought I would add a note about the collecting of accurate weather data --- during WW11 weather forecasts were banned. Don't know if reporting on weather events was also banned. Given Government reluctance to unclassify anything (ever) those years may have vanished! 'Tis a fine line between skepticism and cynicism.
110 mom
Had ta go there. Dent cha???
ROTFL = Shep, I may have had the crap beat out of me this month.....but I ain't DEAD yet....us little ones learn to be scrappers.....ruff, ruff,
the sheppard,

You really think I am encouraging him? I think he will post whenever he desires with or without my approval. And to be honest, Why shouldn't I encourage someone to post evidence backing up what he believes? It is better than the alternative of just saying (NOT) or (TRUE)_...You do not have to read his posts..(STL) but you must admit that he backs up his claims with painstaking research. That research can be viewed in many different ways yes....but his passion and knowledge is true!
BTW,

I did not see STL dissrespecting anyone....I do not approve of that...so you know. SOrry to just jump in.
Hey there, all.
Enjoying the good discourse in here for 2 days now. Good points, well presented.
Most appreciated too.
ALOHA Pottery - I have 80 degrees today -- the gulf is way cold 63 degrees..... but it's warm and SUNNY on land -- I'm thawing and coming alive.......there is the energizerbunny & me.... the SUNBUNNY.
120. P451
Quoting MarineMeteorologist:
Dr. Masters:

It seems to me that 1950 to 2007 was a period the ran from no satellite data to heavy satelite data. The heavy satellite coverage in recent years would tend to detect systems that otherwise would have not been known, particularly over the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic where ship traffic is less than in the Western half.

Also in the period from 1987-2007 when satellite coverage was good, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) went from the cold phase to the warm phase which might also influence the results.




This is exactly why even the map that is posted in the blog is probably incorrect. How can such a map even be printed? Where were all the satellites and buoys in 1950 that contributed to that image's data?

No way... I especially laugh when you see maps like that going back to 1900 or beyond. How can the data be legit? Simply: It can't. We really only have about 15 years of global data that we can compare. 15 years is most certainly not enough of a sample size to draw any long term conclusions.

This is one of my main questions/concerns in trying to turn GW from THEORY into FACT.

So good to come by today --whew!!! I'm off to work the herd...... lots of trot & canter now that season is on.... nice for me to do in the warm......... although a bit harder on the herd.

Good Afternoon to ALL
122. IKE
Global warming and STL....same old blog.....
Death Map I thought was a bit contrived. Only goes back to 1970. Go back 100 years & South FL would look more like South LA. Same might have been said about CA, faultlines can be infrequent. General point about the heat being the worst killer can't really be disputed. I just wouldn't pick me out a "safer" place to live based on it.
116 buhdog
You are correct. Michael will post whatever he wants, whenever he wants until he's banned from this blog once more by the administrator. Whether he gives you a chance to respond or reflect is an entirely different story.
Yes I do in fact love his passion and I have wadded through all his posts. Maybe I can learn something. But, a gentleman doesn't ban and run at every turn.
Just my two cents. LOL
Yo pot
Still propped up on that chair arm?
Making new memories with grandsons still???
Shep..

I hear ya...the really smart ones can't seem to use their smarts in a way to let us common folk understand. Lord knows that when I believe something...no one else can tell me different. If I had STL's brain capacity...No one could tell me crap cuz I would think i am right. Maybe we can all grow a little more. It's too bad that STL is on some peoples crap list...he has been one of my favorite posters since I joined in 2005 at the start if this place...I only understand about half of what he says...but I feel smarter when i read it.
P451~ If the data being so iffy & the media's scientist's in disaggreeance is so confusing why close your eyes to what is happening? Answer me this.. When before the last few years was the Northwest passage open? Some try & say satalites scew all the data...How about the satalites showing Greenland & permafrost melting way faster then ever thought possible? At this point saying the world hasn't warmed a noticable amount is like saying an ice cube doesn't melt because of heat.

It's frustrating since the data sets will never be 100% right. That doesn't change the fact the physical changes to the earth are happening faster than the worst dooms sayers said. That is more real than data sets.

We need to stop polluting the world now for alot of reasons. Not fight about why & continue burning resourses & unsustainable farming.

Surfmom~ Have a sweet ride, weather couldn't be nicer..
LOL Sheph. 3 grandsons live in the bottom of the garden (ages 10,8,6 )
The memories are being created every day.
A couple days ago, they set up a camp-site in the trees. Made their own food - cooked Tilapia from the pond, which they caught. Slept an a tent till rain and dark spooky motions in the bushes chased them home at about 9 pm.
Yesterday, I went to check the water level in one of my tanks. It was full last week. IT WAS DRY !! 4000 gallons of PRECIOUS H2O.
Well, it was a LOOOONG story, about Max was in charge of the tap, but he could not find it, so Sam did something, and Chas something else. You know how it goes.
Anyway, I tried to sound vexed and filled with fury.
But the truth is, I should have checked the dam thing ...
buhdog
reluctant ditto
peace and karma, bro
87. AussieStorm 1:55 PM GMT on December 17, 2008
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


BOM Darwin is showing a slight possibility of Tropical Cyclone Billy just before landfall
Will it be Tropical Cyclone Billy or Tropical Cyclone Anika ???

---
Billy. TC Anika was last month
Hey All; I see Dr. M, and his colleagues, are still looking at GW issues and the impact on hurricane season........I am not qualified to discuss the issue, and it will take years to "nail" it down with evidence one way or the other...However, and for a change of topic, I had a conversation with a respected FSU met professor a few weeks ago and he felt that we/they were all missing the boat with the GW debate in terms of immediate urgency of issues; he basically said that the issue of growing shortages of "fresh water" for the growing earth population is the most pressing issue facing us right now......(He told me, "forget about GW being a real factor in your lifetime, your kids "may" have to worry about that, but everyone is talkng about GW and not stressing enough right now how this water issue will be affecting us in the very near future)...............Just some food for thought...........WW
Shep,

You too man.....

Desaliniztion is the way to go for fresh water right? I mean if a yacht can change over salt water...then don't we have enough fresh water if the earth is almost all salt water?
Hi Weathermanwannabe.
I agree that water will certainly be a major consideration in future.
But we can simply de-salinate the ocean, and pipe the stuff where we want it. Water prices will obviously soar, but we have used it for virtually "free" for ever.
128 pot
What a hoot.
I see mum is not the word with the three banditos. Better than facing grandpa's wrath alone.
They'll never forget these days...LOL
Yoikes, I have to go to the Teeming City. Sit around in traffic and stuff. Joy !!
Check you guys tonight......
Quoting pottery:
Hi Weathermanwannabe.
I agree that water will certainly be a major consideration in future.
But we can simply de-salinate the ocean, and pipe the stuff where we want it. Water prices will obviously soar, but we have used it for virtually "free" for ever.


Hey Pottery; we did not get into the desalinization issue, and I am not sure of the mechanics of it (although all military ships including submarines have their on-board plants) but I can't begin to imagine the cost of massive plants able to sustain a general population as well as agricultural needs (along with the "pipes" to transfer the water inland for hundreds of miles for irrigation purposes)........There is no viable alternative, at present, for natural rain water and/or well and aquifer reprenishment...(Why we often pray for tropical storms in the SE to reduce rain deficits in the Summer)......
Quoting MichaelSTL:


not that you will or care to do so because it violates your religious views...


Ah, you nice messed up little excuse of a man. You humor me so much. I had to laugh a little (okay, a lot) when you complained that I implied you follow Al Gore, but then you did the same thing right back by assuming that I'm a right wing, religious nut job. Allow me to educate you on myself before you make more assumptions.

I am just about the furthest thing from religious you could possibly find. From day one, I have fervently promoted free thinking and nothing else. That includes religious zealotry, and guess what, it also includes causes that have become pseudo-religions, such as...global warming.

If global warming research were no longer tied to grant funding, I can guarantee you the whole global warming parade would end tomorrow. As a university student in an earth science department, I see the battles for grant money on a daily basis. Statistics and facts are manipulated ("slightly embellished" is the term I've heard used) for the purpose of getting money. If you think this isn't happening, you've got your head in the clouds. Although judging from your prior comments, I already know that to be the case.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20082009
22:00 PM Reunion December 17 2008
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 10.9S 67.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gust of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Near-Gale Force Winds
===================
Squally weather exist within 60 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the northeastern sector and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-force winds 20 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle where it reaches locally 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 13.0S 66.0E - 35 knots (Tempete Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 14.1S 64.1E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 15.1S 61.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================
As usual by nighttime, convection has strengthen around the low level circulation center. A Quikscat Pass at 1344z suggest some winds in the 30 knots range in the southern semi-circle (The max no contaminated wind at 43 knots is suspected). Intensity is kept at 30 knots at this time (although it could be a little bit conservative).

A windsat pass at 1330 (Fix: 10.7S 67.7E) shows that the system is a little bit more eastward than previously estimated. It seem to make a slow drift towards the south.

This system evolves within an environment which is neutral to slightly favorable for the moment Located beneath the western periphery of the upper ridge it benefits from weak vertical wind shear, while the upper outflow is restricted to a moderately potent poleward outflow channel (ahead of an upper trough to the west). While there is a consensus among the different numerical models for a general southwest motion of the system they disagree noticeably about the future speed of movement.

The present track, that takes into account the latest consensus from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the 1200z track from the french limited area french model Aladin, is a little bit to the left and slower than the previous forecast.

The potential for further intensification appears limited although there is a window for some marginal improvement within the next 12 to 24 hours before northerly to northwesterly winds start to strengthen and to impinge on the cloud system affecting it through increasing vertical wind shear.
Quoting Buhdog:
Shep,

You too man.....

Desaliniztion is the way to go for fresh water right? I mean if a yacht can change over salt water...then don't we have enough fresh water if the earth is almost all salt water?
You are right on.
SE Fla tried unsuccessfuly several years ago to divert Suwanee river water south. We won't budge on that issue. They have built beyond the capacity of their infrastructure for years. West Palm,Lauderdale and Miami need a common desalinization plant badly. They also need to stop pumping their poop into the,used to be, pristine ocean.
There is also the Tri-State Water War between Alabama,Georgia and Florida that has existed for years. There is an ongoing battle about the spillway height at the lower end of the Okeefenokee Swamp. Interesting reading along those lines.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Hey All; I see Dr. M, and his colleagues, are still looking at GW issues and the impact on hurricane season........I am not qualified to discuss the issue, and it will take years to "nail" it down with evidence one way or the other...However, and for a change of topic, I had a conversation with a respected FSU met professor a few weeks ago and he felt that we/they were all missing the boat with the GW debate in terms of immediate urgency of issues; he basically said that the issue of growing shortages of "fresh water" for the growing earth population is the most pressing issue facing us right now......(He told me, "forget about GW being a real factor in your lifetime, your kids "may" have to worry about that, but everyone is talkng about GW and not stressing enough right now how this water issue will be affecting us in the very near future)...............Just some food for thought...........WW


He seems to forget that the two can be related; global warming will cause (may have already caused) weather patterns to shift; (even if precipitation doesn't decrease, evaporation will increase due to rising temperatures and snowmelt will increase, the latter is especially important in areas like the West, where even if they have a good winter, a warm spring can cause problems by melting all of the snowpack which needs to supply water through the rest of the year). A common meme is that climate change will be too slow to have any real effects for centuries, when there are already major changes occurring - many of which were not expected for 100 years or more; I have seen many say that the IPCC is wrong because they have underestimated (also consider that the Ice Age was only a few degrees cooler than today, yet the climate was drastically different). Also, the real cause of water shortages is basically the same as for climate change (and just about every other problem we face today) - overpopulation, overconsumption.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
3:00 AM JST December 18 2008
==================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (992 hPa) located near 20.7N 135.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 14 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
100 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 21.6N 139.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.7N 141.1E - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Quoting MichaelSTL:


- overpopulation, overconsumption.
...Yup, that does seem to be the common theme.......
Quoting mixade:


Ah, you nice messed up little excuse of a man. You humor me so much. I had to laugh a little (okay, a lot) when you complained that I implied you follow Al Gore, but then you did the same thing right back by assuming that I'm a right wing, religious nut job. Allow me to educate you on myself before you make more assumptions.

I am just about the furthest thing from religious you could possibly find. From day one, I have fervently promoted free thinking and nothing else. That includes religious zealotry, and guess what, it also includes causes that have become pseudo-religions, such as...global warming.

If global warming research were no longer tied to grant funding, I can guarantee you the whole global warming parade would end tomorrow. As a university student in an earth science department, I see the battles for grant money on a daily basis. Statistics and facts are manipulated ("slightly embellished" is the term I've heard used) for the purpose of getting money. If you think this isn't happening, you've got your head in the clouds. Although judging from your prior comments, I already know that to be the case.
Now you've gone and done it, you will be the newest addition to the Poof list (Ignore). LOL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
...Yup, that does seem to be the common theme.......
only way to ensure the planets survial is to ensure we don't
Overpopulation?

You guys must have grown up in the 80's when that was all the rage and had it engrained into your heads that it was a problem. I remember all the death clocks that ticked up the current population and projected huge numbers of people ... numbers far above what they actually are today.

Population is self-correcting as people become uncomfortable with their surroundings.

Let alone, do a quick search and you'll find populations have leveled and even declined in most developed nations. The US is getting closer to flat even year by year.

UNDERpopulation is actually the new problem, if you look around. There's a reason Russia is beginning to pay people to have more babies.

Don't spread fear!
Quoting chilliam:
Overpopulation?

You guys must have grown up in the 80's when that was all the rage and had it engrained into your heads that it was a problem. I remember all the death clocks that ticked up the current population and projected huge numbers of people ... numbers far above what they actually are today.

Population is self-correcting as people become uncomfortable with their surroundings.

Let alone, do a quick search and you'll find populations have leveled and even declined in most developed nations. The US is getting closer to flat even year by year.

UNDERpopulation is actually the new problem, if you look around. There's a reason Russia is beginning to pay people to have more babies.

Don't spread fear!
We were talking about the population here on earth.
I grew up in the 50's when the population was 2 billion. Now it's 6.6 billion.
Ya know we wasted a ton of fresh water from Lake O the past 3 years dumping out so much fresh water down the calusahatchee river...(had to hand out those muck removing contracts)to the point no one could cut across FL anymore. The fresh water ruined our river and brought on red tide...what a waste! Now we are back to normal(close) from Fay...amazing that we dumped all that water.
Quoting theshepherd:
We were talking about the population here on earth.


And I'm not? Or is that you trying to retort with a glib comment so everyone ignores the actual facts in my argument?

Show some respect ... as you said yourself a few minutes ago: "But, that still does not give you the right to disrespect so many honorable people."
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THREE
TROPICAL LOW (02U)
5:00 AM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 3:30 am Australia CST, a Tropical Low [1002 hPa] located at 13.7S 127.7E, or kms east northeast of Kalumburu and 375 kms west southwest of Darwin. The low has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gust of 45 knots and is reported as moving south at 5 knots towards the Kimberley coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing close to the north Kimberley coast on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
==========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo Island to Western Australia/Northern Territory border.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am ACST
Quoting chilliam:
Overpopulation?

You guys must have grown up in the 80's when that was all the rage and had it engrained into your heads that it was a problem. I remember all the death clocks that ticked up the current population and projected huge numbers of people ... numbers far above what they actually are today.

Population is self-correcting as people become uncomfortable with their surroundings.

Let alone, do a quick search and you'll find populations have leveled and even declined in most developed nations. The US is getting closer to flat even year by year.






148 chi
Nothing glib there, I was sincere.
To say that the population of the earth is self correcting is profoundly askew to a realistic, stewardly philosophy amigo.
Michael your graph of the US misrepresents population growth. It includes immigration to the US, one of the countries with the largest immigrant growth.

Of course the US growth continues up as more people immigrate. To look at the issue responsibly, you should look at the standard growth metric called the "birth rate".

Take your pick of pages showing maps of the world and where babies are coming from:
http://p2o2.blogspot.com/2008/07/bye-bye-cosy-europe.html

You'll find that overpopulation is a problem coming from poor economic conditions. The problem is *not* overpopulation, but rather awful economies. Solutions should address the root problem, economics.




Quoting theshepherd:
148 chi
Nothing glib there, I was sincere.
To say that the population of the earth is self correcting is profoundly askew to a realistic, stewardly philosophy amigo.


I didn't realize you were my amigo.

Realistic philosophies are based on the facts at hand. Realistic philosophies do not come from a misplaced notion that the world is overpopulated.

Almost all of Europe has a declining birth rate. Not self correcting? It's not from population restricting measures, mi amigo, it's from a self correcting measure that happens when countries establish a nice standard of living and no longer need large families to maintain that lifestyle.

Solutions aren't found by yelling on the street corners about the end of the world. It's about realistic philosophies that strive to boost the economies of developing nations without using misplaced ideas such as population limits. That only acts *against* the establishment of strong economies, ironically. You're part of the problem, not the solution.


153 chi
Sorry that tonal inflections don't come across on keyboards. If you feel I have insulted you, then I appologize, Sir.
But, I think Sophism may exist in the Science of Economics as well. If you sincerly beleive that overpopulation in third world countries is due to need and if you sincerly beleive that overpopulation in certain races is due to need, then we'll just have to disagree.
Does anyone even read STL's posts?
155 storm
Actually, I do.
Sometimes I grit my teeth, but yes I do. LOL
Here's an editorial commentary from Investor's Business Daily:




The Day After (Inauguration)



INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 12/15/2008

Climate Change: The Associated Press warns that the new administration won't have much time to save the planet from a global warming apocalypse. Never mind that the "ticking time bomb" is a dud.....

Well, strong winds are still possible here Sunday night, but probably not as strong as my previous prediction (120 km/h), but UKM is still going crazy. It appears we could have about 48 cm (19 in) by Christmas! GFS is suggesting possibly 80 cm by New Years! Of course, the extra snow could compact. It looks like the end of the year could be crazy weatherwise. Time to make a 12-ft snowman! LOL.
Quoting vortfix:
Here's an editorial commentary from Investor's Business Daily:




The Day After (Inauguration)



INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 12/15/2008

Climate Change: The Associated Press warns that the new administration won't have much time to save the planet from a global warming apocalypse. Never mind that the "ticking time bomb" is a

I put this up last night and MichaeSTL called it "Totally Insane" LOL
160. P451
Quoting Skyepony:
P451~ If the data being so iffy & the media's scientist's in disaggreeance is so confusing why close your eyes to what is happening? Answer me this.. When before the last few years was the Northwest passage open? Some try & say satalites scew all the data...How about the satalites showing Greenland & permafrost melting way faster then ever thought possible? At this point saying the world hasn't warmed a noticable amount is like saying an ice cube doesn't melt because of heat.

It's frustrating since the data sets will never be 100% right. That doesn't change the fact the physical changes to the earth are happening faster than the worst dooms sayers said. That is more real than data sets.

We need to stop polluting the world now for alot of reasons. Not fight about why & continue burning resourses & unsustainable farming.



I don't... and I think it's obvious we're in a period of warming. However I don't know if anyone has a clear answer on how much and for how long?

NW Passage: Was it not navigated in the early 1900s? It's a "fabled" water route and it did not get that way by always being frozen up could it?

We all know the climate has at any given time in the past been much colder and much warmer than it is today.

The bigger questions are how much is it warming, how much of an effect are we having on that warming, and how far does it continue before a cycle of cooling begins?

With the data that we're trying to make a case with I don't think we can have a factual answer. Again, given just the one ocean temperature image in this blog's head, we all know there weren't satellites and buoy's recording ocean temperatures over such large areas with great accuracy going back to 1950 so how can that map be fact? It can't. It's theory.

That's what I question. Not if we're warming but how much.

As to prevention it's simply not possible when you have countries such as India, China, and Russia refusing to curb their emissions in any way. It will also take decades at the very least to develop non-fossil fuels that everyone can afford and transition over to.

So I don't really think there's a viable answer to prevention any time soon.

Quoting P451:


I don't... and I think it's obvious we're in a period of warming. However I don't know if anyone has a clear answer on how much and for how long?

NW Passage: Was it not navigated in the early 1900s? It's a "fabled" water route and it did not get that way by always being frozen up could it?

We all know the climate has at any given time in the past been much colder and much warmer than it is today.

The bigger questions are how much is it warming, how much of an effect are we having on that warming, and how far does it continue before a cycle of cooling begins?

With the data that we're trying to make a case with I don't think we can have a factual answer. Again, given just the one ocean temperature image in this blog's head, we all know there weren't satellites and buoy's recording ocean temperatures over such large areas with great accuracy going back to 1950 so how can that map be fact? It can't. It's theory.

That's what I question. Not if we're warming but how much.

As to prevention it's simply not possible when you have countries such as India, China, and Russia refusing to curb their emissions in any way. It will also take decades at the very least to develop non-fossil fuels that everyone can afford and transition over to.

So I don't really think there's a viable answer to prevention any time soon.


As it stands now, GW cannot be stopped. We can try to reduce its impact, but not stop it entirely. Although it has been warmer than it is predicted to be, it's about the rate of warming, not just how much it warms by. When a six-degree warming occured in the Permian-Triassic, 90% of all life went extinct. This amount of warming is possible within the next 100 years. The extra fast warming is releasing feedback mechanisms, which is making it accelerate even faster. We've been in a stable climate for the past 10,000 years, and that's all about to change. Although climatic stability is rate in Earth's pre-Holocene period, the sudden reversal of the current stability, as a fellow Wikipedian puts it, "will be seen as nothing short of apocalyptic".
Quoting conchygirl:
Now you've gone and done it, you will be the newest addition to the Poof list (Ignore). LOL


He was in post 108 or something like that. I have one person on my poof list: 15hurricanes.
I put this up last night and MichaeSTL called it "Totally Insane" LOL


Well Nadia, STL is entitled to his own personal thoughts and allowed to post them here as is everyone else.
When the name-calling begins by any individual regarding any topic or issue it is "Not" allowed and the comment should be flagged!

Hi All! Been a while since I was on...

The reason why the minimal threshold for storm formation might increase from 26.5°C to 28.5°C is as follows:

Warming Ocean -> More Deep Convection & Latent Heat Release Aloft -> Warming of the Upper Atmosphere

Currently 26.5°C and higher SSTs generally lead to unstable conditions that foster deep convection. However, if the upper atmosphere warms the ocean would have to warm as well to maintain instability.

It all has to do with environment lapse rates...

Quoting streamtracker:
Jeff,


Papers by Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (2008) theorize that as SSTs warm, the lowest temperature at which tropical storms can form will also increase. The current minimum temperature of 26.5°C (80°F) may increase to 28.5°C for a 2°C warming of Atlantic SSTs.


Why would that be so? Increase in sheer?

Thanks for informative post.
165. GBlet
Did anyone catch Sci Fi last night? Some scientist believe that the crystal skulls contain the info to stop the damage that we have done to the planet.
After reading all the comments I think many good points were made. Figured I'd summarize some of the salient themes that I agree with:

1. The Data Record is too short
2. Pre 1980's storms may have been missed - not sure if they would preferentially be missed at the beginning/end of the season because storms then are likely to be weaker/have shorter duration
3. Warm phase of the AMO switched in the middle of the satellite period - so the increase in season length after 1995 could largely be due to warmer SSTs
4. Shear/Dry air are typically the major limiting factors during the early/late parts of the season in the Atlantic Basin - though higher SSTs do play a role



Quoting MichaelSTL:


... global warming will cause (may have already caused) weather patterns to shift...


Or.... weather pattern shifts cause GW. ;)
Some of the modeling efforts made by Knutson et al. should help shed some light on what is likely to happen, however the data length limitiations will simply not let any conclusive statements be made on whether GW has influenced hurricane activity anytime soon.
MichaelSTL 150.

While I respect your stance, I do think that once countries become developed, the birth rate goes down, sometimes below the death rate. For instance:

Birth Rate (per 1000)- Death Rate (per 1000)= new people (per 1000)

Italy= 8.36-10.61= -2.25 new people (per 1000)
Canada= 10.29-7.61= 2.68
United States= 14.18-8.27= 5.91
Japan= 7.87-9.26= -1.29
Australia= 12.55-6.68= 5.87
New Zealand= 14.09-7.00= 7.09
Denmark= 10.71-10.25= 0.46
Estonia= 10.28-13.35= -3.07
Finland= 10.39-10.00= 0.39
Iceland= 13.50-6.81= 6.69
Ireland= 14.33-7.77= 6.56
Latvia= 9.62-13.63= -4.01
Lithuania= 9.00-11.12= -3.12
Norway= 11.12-9.33= 1.79
Sweden= 10.15-10.24= -0.09
United Kingdom= 10.65-10.05= 0.60
Austria= 8.66-9.91= -1.25
Belgium= 10.22-10.38= -0.16
France= 12.73-8.48= 4.25
Germany= 8.18-10.80= -2.68
Liechtenstein= 9.86-7.42= 2.44
Luxembourg= 11.77-8.43= 3.34
Monaco= 9.09-12.06= -2.97
Netherlands= 10.53-8.71= 1.82
Switzerland= 9.62-8.54= 1.08
Cyprus= 12.56-7.76= 3.80
Russia= 11.03-16.06= -5.03
Hong Kong= 7.37-6.6= 0.77
Malta= 10.33-8.29= 2.04
Singapore= 8.99-4.53= 4.46
Spain= 9.87-9.90= -0.03
Portugal= 10.45-10.62= -0.17
Greece= 9.54-10.42= -0.88
Slovenia= 8.99-10.51= -1.52
South Korea= 9.09-5.73= 3.36
Taiwan= 8.99-6.65= 2.34
Czech Republic= 8.89-10.69= -1.80
These are all the countries that are considered "developed." Notice that most of them are under 7.00, and there are only a handful over 5.00. As you can see, the United States is not done with its process and that number is likely to go down. To show you how low these numbers are, here's Sierra Leone for comparison:

45.08-22.26= 22.82 new people (per 1000)
If all the undeveloped countries could be raised to developing or developed standards, world overpopulation would not be a problem.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Hi All! Been a while since I was on...

The reason why the minimal threshold for storm formation might increase from 26.5°C to 28.5°C is as follows:

Warming Ocean -> More Deep Convection & Latent Heat Release Aloft -> Warming of the Upper Atmosphere

Currently 26.5°C and higher SSTs generally lead to unstable conditions that foster deep convection. However, if the upper atmosphere warms the ocean would have to warm as well to maintain instability.

It all has to do with environment lapse rates...



Okay thank you I was trying to figure that out.
Re: hurristat:

World overpopulation is very much a short-term problem, and one that is mostly restricted to developing countries. In fact, in some developed countries, we may even see "not enough people" become a problem. Although a global population of around 12 billion by 2100 will further exuberate our economic and environmental crises, we have much bigger problems ahead of us.
Quoting Skyepony:
P451~ If the data being so iffy & the media's scientist's in disagreeance is so confusing why close your eyes to what is happening? Answer me this.. When before the last few years was the Northwest passage open? Some try & say satalites skew all the data...How about the satalites showing Greenland & permafrost melting way faster then ever thought possible? At this point saying the world hasn't warmed a noticable amount is like saying an ice cube doesn't melt because of heat.

It's frustrating since the data sets will never be 100% right. That doesn't change the fact the physical changes to the earth are happening faster than the worst dooms sayers said. That is more real than data sets.

We need to stop polluting the world now for alot of reasons. Not fight about why & continue burning resourses & unsustainable farming.

Surfmom~ Have a sweet ride, weather couldn't be nicer..


Got ur back on this one. NW passage prolly was last open when Greenland was green enough to earn the name, say, maybe 600 years ago? 1000 years ago? Anyway, my point is we are missing a lot of the data we need to confirm some of the hypotheses out there.

That being said, just because data wasn't collected the way is is being collected now, we can't assume that the data is completely invalid. For example, the fact that we have better coverage of the EATL via satellite today doesn't mean that there was no ship's data available from the area 100 years ago.

We all benefit more from directing our attention to using our data wisely and allowing both enthusiasm and skepticism to be healthy rather than rabid. If more of the so-called scientific reporters and commenters on both sides of this issue would be more objective in their word choice, we might actually get a better understanding of the real science. Nobody benefits from the you-say-I-say.
BTW, I agree we should work hard to keep a civil tone; I agree we should keep the discussion focused on issues rather than personalities.

I think some people on both sides of the issue can benefit from eliminating the judgemental name-calling.

I also think links to sources for this topic should be clearly focused.

I don't think we can avoid discussion of this topic, since it impinges so directly on the purpose of this blog (and this website!), but it behooves us to make the conversation worth the while, doesn't it?
Quoting Skyepony:
Death Map I thought was a bit contrived. Only goes back to 1970. Go back 100 years & South FL would look more like South LA. Same might have been said about CA, faultlines can be infrequent. General point about the heat being the worst killer can't really be disputed. I just wouldn't pick me out a "safer" place to live based on it.
I wonder if there is any such place as a "safer" place. Seems there's something that'll getcha just about anywhere. Guess u gotta pick ur poison . . .
That being said, just because data wasn't collected the way is is being collected now, we can't assume that the data is completely invalid. For example, the fact that we have better coverage of the EATL via satellite today doesn't mean that there was no ship's data available from the area 100 years ago.


Completely agree. We didn't necessarily miss whole storms when we had 2 ship obs and those ship obs may be good data. Some of the classifications, such as number of TSs and/or when they happened has some serious questions, though.

Remember earlier this year when we are all calling a system a TS and due to lack of QuikScat data showing a closed system, NHC was slow to call it a TD? Comparing the historical (> than 20 years ago) to now is very much like comparing the proverbial apples to oranges.

"just because data wasn't collected the way is being collected now, we can't assume that the data is completely invalid" This is so true of surface stations. The historical surface ob data as a representative value for an area and/or a component of a mean global telephone number is likely far more valid than the same for today.

Thanks for the civility comment...hope it gets through to everyone.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Hey All; I see Dr. M, and his colleagues, are still looking at GW issues and the impact on hurricane season........I am not qualified to discuss the issue, and it will take years to "nail" it down with evidence one way or the other...However, and for a change of topic, I had a conversation with a respected FSU met professor a few weeks ago and he felt that we/they were all missing the boat with the GW debate in terms of immediate urgency of issues; he basically said that the issue of growing shortages of "fresh water" for the growing earth population is the most pressing issue facing us right now......(He told me, "forget about GW being a real factor in your lifetime, your kids "may" have to worry about that, but everyone is talkng about GW and not stressing enough right now how this water issue will be affecting us in the very near future)...............Just some food for thought...........WW
People started talking about the water issue about 20 years ago as a serious shortterm problem. I think we're getting to the point where some "futuristic" style movies about criminals attempting to steal / control water supplies and wars being fought over water rights are likely to seem more factual than fictional. It's already been an issue here in the Bahamas simply because of our geography (small islands existing on minute, fragile limestone rock water lenses and captured rainfall). However, I can see water-rich countries having a stronger position as clean water supplies dwindle and climate patterns inevitably shift.
Bad news..I am back :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Can we not try to polarize this issue along religious lines? Neither the political liberals or conservatives have a hold on God, Allah etc, and neither group has the "mandate" on conservation. All Christians are not a part of the Religious Right, and a whole lot of the "Religous Right" are not Christians. These are the kinds of non-issue baggage that are keeping us from developing clarity about really important issues like keeping the world in as good a shape as possible.

Can't we be good husbands of the "vineyard" of the earth? If we destroy our home, we don't have a guarantee of being granted another one.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Does anyone even read STL's posts?
I do. As others have said, I'm willing to read posts that attempt to present information in a scientific and reasonably balanced manner.

Hey, I even read the FOX News one, and I have found FOX to be remarkably biased towards whatever their current bias of the week is in their reporting . . . .
Quoting chilliam:


And I'm not? Or is that you trying to retort with a glib comment so everyone ignores the actual facts in my argument?

Show some respect ... as you said yourself a few minutes ago: "But, that still does not give you the right to disrespect so many honorable people."
Chill, I think he's trying to say that your argument ignores the massive growth in other parts of the world, which therefore tends to support the idea that there IS overpopulation and overconsumption.

It's called rebuttal, not disrespect.

He makes a good point too, since some of the areas where populations have been on the rise are also areas with potential water shortages.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Does anyone even read STL's posts?


I'm in ''lurking'' mode...I also find find STL's post to be quite informative and accurate.
Quoting chilliam:
You'll find that overpopulation is a problem coming from poor economic conditions. The problem is *not* overpopulation, but rather awful economies. Solutions should address the root problem, economics.




I'm not sure if this is a correct statement. Countries like Singapore and Bangladesh aren't overpopulated because they are poor; they're overpopulated because they have large population densities. If u mean problems we associate w/ overpopulation, perhaps it would make more sense. Nevertheless, the most densely populated places (Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore etc according to Wikipedia) are all highly reliant on outside sources of food and water, and I wonder how similar population densities along the entire coastlines of the world would impact supplies of water and arable land. I can't see it as merely a matter of economics; there is a footprint issue too.
Quoting stormdude77:


I'm in ''lurking'' mode...I also find find STL's post to be quite informative and accurate.


I may disagree with him, but when I do, I can prove my point with more data... just because you don't agree with someone doesn't mean their argument is invalid.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not sure if this is a correct statement. Countries like Singapore and Bangladesh aren't overpopulated because they are poor; they're overpopulated because they have large population densities. If u mean problems we associate w/ overpopulation, perhaps it would make more sense. Nevertheless, the most densely populated places (Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore etc according to Wikipedia) are all highly reliant on outside sources of food and water, and I wonder how similar population densities along the entire coastlines of the world would impact supplies of water and arable land. I can't see it as merely a matter of economics; there is a footprint issue too.


The density is largely the issue; another is reproduction rates... Singapore is in no way, shape, or form poor. (no offense) But I get your point.

The reliance on outside sources is a different topic, but the relationship between density and arable land is related to overpopulation.
stat,

What I like best about the blog is when we can slam each other with the data LOL. I get a real education out of it.

I guess that's why I was annoyed with the two reports about GW I saw this past week, where each reporter sounded more like one of our local summer bloggers in defense of his / her position than like well-trained, scientific journalists. Just about the only thing missing from one of them was the "but he started it first". . . lol. What's the world coming to the the bloggers are the sound voice of reason and the reporters are "he-saying and she-saying"???
Quoting stormdude77:


I'm in ''lurking'' mode...I also find find STL's post to be quite informative and accurate.



Yeah I do too...dont really think that there annoying. Sometimes the stuff he posts is interesting.
184. hurristat 7:09 PM EST on December 17, 2008

My bigger concern about the GW issue is not what the cause is so much as what the impacts are likely to be. I agree we should consider causes; if we can mitigate against the effects by shutting down the cycle I can see the value of that. OTOH, it seems that anything we do now will still leave us with quite a few years when we will have to cope with a least some of the consequences. That's why I found the comments about overpopulation, developed vs. developing, and land / water use so interesting. If arid areas are going to spread or shift in scope, for example, what are the potential impacts on food production in that part of the world?

Somebody mentioned earlier the role of TCs in moving water into the SE US, and I know they perform similar functions along the SE African coast (and prolly to a lesser extent to NW Australia). How might shifting temperatures affect traditional storm tracks, storm rates, etc? We've seen a short-term shift on the basis of La Nina / El Nino vacillations, so we know something similar, but longer lasting isn't out of the range of possibility.

I'm also thinking about the Grey/Kolbach Dec forecast, which the good doc repeatedly reminds us has little skill. Nevertheless, it does indicate that hurricane predictors can / do shift based on climate-based patterns, so that things we used to read before as indicators may no longer be so reliable.

Just a few thoughts.
World population growth is not a simple exponential curve, as average world birth rates have been falling since the 1970s. But the population will still rise considerably through mid century. This is the latest census bureau (updated Dec 2008)
For those who may not know, the NHC finally released their report on Hanna today. Take a look at it.
Or for a more quantitative table here: Link
Good ole Hard Hearted Hannah!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE CINDA 04-20082009
04:00 AM Reunion December 18 2008
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cinda (994 hPa) located at 11.3S 66.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gust of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 70 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 12.0S 66.6E - 40 knots (Temp%uFFFD Tropicale Modere%uFFFD
24 HRS: 13.4S 65.7E - 35 knots (Temp%uFFFD Tropicale Modere%uFFFD

Additional Information
======================
System has reached moderate tropical storm stage during the night and given the name "Cinda" by Mauritius Meteorological Services at 0000z. Stronger winds extend further in the souther semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. The potential for intensification of this system appears limited. Environmental conditions are still expected to deteriorate starting today.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
World population growth is not a simple exponential curve, as average world birth rates have been falling since the 1970s. But the population will still rise considerably through mid century. This is the latest census bureau (updated Dec 2008)



Good evening, all! Yup, Simon. I've done some reading in the past about "sustainability." I'm curious, according to the graph (as I see it) why do you think it's supposed to take about 20 years to go from eight to nine billion - especially, since it's only supposed to take about 10 years to go from seven to eight billion? Seems with that many more people having babies that it would take nearly as much as 20 years to grow exponentially again.
Take a look at link on 190 MLC
Quoting Orcasystems:
Bad news..I am back :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
was the vacation good orca bet yer all tanned up for the holidays

o welcome home
StSimons, that's fascinating...Do you know what's factored into that drop in percentage increase?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
World population growth is not a simple exponential curve, as average world birth rates have been falling since the 1970s. But the population will still rise considerably through mid century. This is the latest census bureau (updated Dec 2008)


they're getting farther apart...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE CINDA 04-20082009
04:00 AM Reunion December 18 2008
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cinda (994 hPa) located at 11.3S 66.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gust of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 70 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 12.0S 66.6E - 40 knots (Temp%uFFFD Tropicale Modere%uFFFD
24 HRS: 13.4S 65.7E - 35 knots (Temp%uFFFD Tropicale Modere%uFFFD

Additional Information
======================
System has reached moderate tropical storm stage during the night and given the name "Cinda" by Mauritius Meteorological Services at 0000z. Stronger winds extend further in the souther semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. The potential for intensification of this system appears limited. Environmental conditions are still expected to deteriorate starting today.


Cindy or Cinda??
I'm very interested in seeing the final on Fay. I have a feeling she's going to beat out several prior storms for fickleness and long-term unpredictability.
Evening everyone. I asked this question the other night. I am curious if anyone knows the final death toll from Ike in the US. Wiki hasn't updated it, and I can't find a site under search engines. If anyone knows, please let me know. Wiki says 202 still missing, and I doubt this is, but I don't really know. Seems they would either count them as dead or have located their whereabouts. Thanks a lot!
Moonlight, haven't seen you in a long time, where have you been hiding?
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOUR
TROPICAL LOW (02U)
11:00 AM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 9:30 AM Australia CST, a Tropical Low [1002 hPa] located at 13.8S 128.3E, or 135 kms west-northwest of Port Keats and 190kms east northeast of Kalumburu at 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo Island in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.
198. hurristat 1:18 AM GMT on December 18, 2008

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

Cindy or Cinda??


It's Cinda

I asked this on the last page, but since it's not busy at all tonight and there's a new page, I'll ask again. Anyone know the final death toll from Ike in US? Thanks again
sooo ahhh Orca... what you bring back? Tequila, Orcas....... a good tan?
Snowing Las Vegas, NV.
Also snowing 6-10" just east of San Diego, CA.
No Orca yet - probably hasn't had time to turn the computer on!

Still hanging Christmas lights - and still sweating while we are doing it. Don't know whether I prefer the warm temps or the ability to stay cool for a while.

Our daughter in Maine finally got power back last night. We were threatening to fly up and get the baby, poor guy doesn't know what to do with only cold water.
Quoting surfmom:
sooo ahhh Orca... what you bring back? Tequila, Orcas....... a good tan?


Hey surfmom!!
209. DDR
looks like the us desert sw is getting some rain
Quoting BahaHurican:


Got ur back on this one. NW passage prolly was last open when Greenland was green enough to earn the name, say, maybe 600 years ago? 1000 years ago?


Actually, Greenland was NOT called Greenland because it used to be greener than today (see here for the reason); in all likelihood, current temperatures are the warmest in at least several thousand years (since the peak about 6,000 years ago temperatures were falling, at least until the past century, as part of the normal interglacial/ice age cycle)
MichealSTL, do you suppose you could answer my question, that is if you're still here?
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Hi All! Been a while since I was on...

The reason why the minimal threshold for storm formation might increase from 26.5°C to 28.5°C is as follows:

Warming Ocean -> More Deep Convection & Latent Heat Release Aloft -> Warming of the Upper Atmosphere

Currently 26.5°C and higher SSTs generally lead to unstable conditions that foster deep convection. However, if the upper atmosphere warms the ocean would have to warm as well to maintain instability.

It all has to do with environment lapse rates...



That assumes that the upper atmosphere actually does warm as fast as the lower atmosphere, as observations show that the uppermost layers are actually cooling (this is also predicted if greenhouse gasses are actually the cause of global warming; for example, increased solar radiation would cause all layers to warm with more warming higher up). You can check that out here; the following shows the latest daily readings (though daily readings aren't really meaningful), compared to the same day last year (the year overall is fairly similar though):

900 mb: 0.36 degrees F warmer
600 mb: 0.11 degrees F warmer
400 mb: 0.11 degrees F cooler
250 mb: 0.18 degrees F cooler
150 mb: 0.30 degrees F cooler
90 mb: 0.44 degrees F cooler

(it also shows higher levels, though the stratosphere isn't relevant here)

From this, it appears that below 500 mb warming is occurring and above 500 mb cooling (this has also been fairly consistent since I came across the site a few months ago).
Quoting GatorWX:
MichealSTL, do you suppose you could answer my question, that is if you're still here?


I think we'll have to wait for the NHC report to find out, since I haven't seen any updates since shortly after (a quick search on Google for "hurricane ike deaths" just brings up articles from around mid-September).
Thanks Micheal, that's all I could find too. I guess you're right about post analysis, I haven't seen anything updated since Sept. either. Wiki still says 202 missing and there's no way that's true. I'm sure most of those people were either displaced or some perhaps dead, but I'm sure most are since accounted for. Thanks again
Quoting surfmom:
sooo ahhh Orca... what you bring back? Tequila, Orcas....... a good tan?


The tan I got :)
Pictures I have...
I also Have SNOW... WTF??
Mother nature was very rude when we got back here.. from Tequila to a snow shovel :(



SNOWFALL WARNING: Greater Victoria Issued at 6:53 PM PST WEDNESDAY 17 DECEMBER 2008

FURTHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 15 CM OVER MAINLY VICTORIA AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 5 CM OVER MUCH OF THE INNER SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
217. we86
ur article is very profession, i like it .welcome to my websitesomewhere i've never been
Lurk-n in the warm sector (for now). Let's watch it out there in the fog.
In the Icelandic sagas, which I have a copy of, Erik the Red, the leader of the Greenland settlement expedition said, quoted from the translation "I named the new land Greenland, with settlers more likely to go there with such a name"
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CINDA 04-20082009
10:00 AM Reunion December 18 2008
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Cinda (985 hPa) located at 12.2S 66.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gust of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in southern semi-circle

Near-Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 13.2S 66.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.0S 65.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 14.6S 63.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================
Satellite imagery analysis leads to T=CI T3.5 however 85 ghz microwave and infrared/visible imagery are much more impressive than 37 ghz microwave imagery. 85 ghz imagery (F17/0052z, F15/0156z, F16/0325z) actually displays a rather well defined eye. but on the 37 ghz, this eye is eroded on the northern edge. Moreover these imagerires show a tilt between the low level and the upper level center. This shows the system is undergoing a northerly constraint. The environment remains however slightly favorable. Located beneath the western periphery of the upper level ridge, the system benefits from still rather weak vertical wind shear, while the upper outflow is restricted to a moderately potent poleward channel (ahead of an upper trough to the west). This environment is still forecast to become less and less favorable with the strengthening of northern to northwestern winds and the loss of the upper level ridge. About the forecast track, it seem that current steering flow are from the mid-level (700/500 HPA) - where they are somewha weak as the system is located on the western edge of a mid level ridge. As the system should gradually weaken, it should be steered by a more low level steering flow and then track west-southwestwards.
Nice banding in association with Cinda. IIRC, this wasn't forecast to significantly intensify with the initial advisories. Interesting.
ya surprising storm that was suppose to only remain a tropical depression two days ago.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropcial Cyclone Advice Number FIVE
TROPICAL LOW (02U)
5:00 pm ACST December 18 2008
===============================

At 3:30 pm Australia CST, a Tropical Low [997 hPa] located at 14.1S 128.6E or 100 kms west of Port Keats and 215 kms east of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is moving southeast at 5 knots.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf tonight or early on Friday. GALES may develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu overnight or early on Friday.

Widespread heavy rainfall is likely over the southern Darwin-Daly district, the northern Victoria River district, and northern parts of the Kimberley over the next 3 days. Significant stream rises and local flooding are expected in these areas on Friday, extending westwards to the north Kimberley over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

The Cyclone WATCH from Cockatoo Island to Kalumburu in WA has been cancelled.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST
while you guys look at current tech and statistics to see what the next decade will bring i will be looking at the 12th and 13th century for the answer to that puzzle.
These little statistical things we do now may come in handy three hundred years from now.
Fact is the patterns on earth are far more intwind in time then some think .the big huricane season of 2005 was a pivital point inwhitch people in the future will say.
that was the turning point and i remember it .we are in a cooling period !!!!!
This period will last anywhere from 35 to 70 years ,that is if it doesnt last 300 hundred years.
Drought is the worst of it all . cooling periods are laiden with drought.that will be the greatest misery in it . remeber the great potato famine.
our cycles and patterns are not i repeat not the cause of man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the patterns on earth are a direct result of our sun and the patterns in our planets and moon. the earth is growing in size .that can be proved by looking at the land masses and how they spread from each other .
science isnt and exact science if you know what i mean . he he just don't think that anything you here in regards to hurricane activity is rock solid .
Fact is the earth was as close to the Sun as it has b een in 40,000 years it would if you use commen sence that the Earth would be warmer. Note that heat rises and brings into it cold so keep that in mind too .
Another words everything I have said here has just as much likely hood of happening as any other . keep the faith
dew
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin (0600z 18DEC)
---------------------------------

TROPICAL LOW

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.4S 128.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.6S 128.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.7S 127.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.1S 124.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The low has undergone significant development during the day, whilst tracking steadily to the southeast. Dvorak analysis at 06Z has DT2.5 [0.55 curved band wrap], MET=PT=FT=2.5.

The system is located under the upper ridge, so vertical shear is not a problem. Standard development rate has the low reaching TC intensity early on Friday, just prior to crossing the coast.



30 knots 1000 MB

hmm will JTWC issue a TCFA in time before BOM names it "Billy", LOL
there are those at the college that would like to see Dr, Gray gone.They believe his way of predicting huricane activity is long sence past.
The fact is that Dr. Gray does not subscrible to the Global Warming theory and that presents a wall for those that would like it propagated to be hurtled.
That being said and knowing this /: I would be sceptical as to the forecast they stamp with Dr. Grays appoval.
It will most certainly be scaled to more then what it would be if the Globalist wasnt present.
The next decade i would in my ipinion be sceptical of anythingyou here in regards to global warming or as it is refered to now as climate change.
These people arent interested in the science .They have an adjenda and that my friends is a fact.scientist are being pushed in directions they would not persue other wise because of the politics of the time.
don't think this is a new thing ; It has went on for hundreds of years. The bad thing about it in a time of the greatest tech era of the ages is here ;yet it still goes on.
What a shame it is !True Science will have to be done on low budget personal wage of the scientist will have to be used to conduct even unbiased science.
follow the money and you will find the villon as always . Just think of the damage that will be done in the name of science for political ends. i don't post much here but thought sence there is a lul in activity ;this would be a good time to introduce the activities as some as fraudulent as they are.
Hope you all take it all with a grain of salt and keep in mind that some science inst science at all.
have a good day last post see ya .
dew
Quoting KoritheMan:
Nice banding in association with Cinda. IIRC, this wasn't forecast to significantly intensify with the initial advisories. Interesting.


We all know the feeling after going through the 2008 and 2007 Hurricane seasons. System's out of the blue rapidly intensifying. I still will never forget Dean or Ike..
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


30 knots 1000 MB

hmm will JTWC issue a TCFA in time before BOM names it "Billy", LOL


LOL, don't worry, next year the Atlantic will have "Bill" according to the list.
Wyndham RADAR
our local-radar composite
Good Morning -- lots of interesting reading already!!! I canceled the morning paper about a month ago.... better read in here
Good Morning All
Wilmington is 58 and partly cloudy
Forecast is sunny and 65!!!
Morning

preping for the storm here

Let It Snow
Let It Snow
Let It Snow
235. JRRP
good mornging!!!!
the weather in Santo Domingo feels like 62 (17)
That is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Possibility of at least 4 inches of snow....Day 1:

Photobucket


Day 2:

Photobucket

Photobucket

Freezing weather in the Northern States, while those of us in SWFL enjoying the 80's (well maybe not the horses) It's good to be GULFSTER, although if you are looking for waves.... fill the gas tank & go to where the sun rises. Flat on the Gulf, but the East Coast has some lively action........Gulf of Mexico a chilly 62 degrees........wanna be in Trinidad -- where the rum flows freely and wetsuits are an anomaly
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Wait. Isn't this the one that they were saying had poor prospects for even getting a name? The conditions must not have deteriorated as much / quickly as they expected they would. Cinda's looking pretty healthy.
Quoting JRRP:
good mornging!!!!
the weather in Santo Domingo feels like 62 (17)
That is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow! On the Caribbean Sea??? It was warmer here at that time this morning, more like 70. What's the weather like, clear or cloudy?
Morning everyone......thinking of having a little fun.......i own a remix program on my computer.....and think i will try to put to together a very long mix of Christmas fun mix that we can play on Christmas eve for those that use their computer for such. If anyone has any request let me know. I do almost anything with this remix program. The wife makes me help her with the Cheerleading dance mixes that she produces.....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone......thinking of having a little fun.......i own a remix program on my computer.....and think i will try to put to together a very long mix of Christmas fun mix that we can play on Christmas eve for those that use their computer for such. If anyone has any request let me know. I do almost anything with this remix program. The wife makes me help her with the Cheerleading dance mixes that she produces.....LOL
How nice Tampa. I'll send you my request via wumail.
Quoting conchygirl:
How nice Tampa. I'll send you my request via wumail.


That would be great.....please let me know the song and whom you want that sings it....I will try to produce about 30 songs on one hit if i can and have enough time....LOL
243. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! On the Caribbean Sea??? It was warmer here at that time this morning, more like 70. What's the weather like, clear or cloudy?

At this moment is totally clear and breezy
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone......thinking of having a little fun.......i own a remix program on my computer.....and think i will try to put to together a very long mix of Christmas fun mix that we can play on Christmas eve for those that use their computer for such. If anyone has any request let me know. I do almost anything with this remix program. The wife makes me help her with the Cheerleading dance mixes that she produces.....LOL
Good for you Tampa. Look forward to the finished product.
How about Drummer Boy?
Uh, any cheerleaders need private lessons???
Quoting theshepherd:
Good for you Tampa. Look forward to the finished product.
How about Drummer Boy?
Uh, any cheerleaders need private lessons???


LOL......
Quoting MichaelSTL:


That assumes that the upper atmosphere actually does warm as fast as the lower atmosphere, as observations show that the uppermost layers are actually cooling (this is also predicted if greenhouse gasses are actually the cause of global warming; for example, increased solar radiation would cause all layers to warm with more warming higher up). You can check that out here; the following shows the latest daily readings (though daily readings aren't really meaningful), compared to the same day last year (the year overall is fairly similar though):

900 mb: 0.36 degrees F warmer
600 mb: 0.11 degrees F warmer
400 mb: 0.11 degrees F cooler
250 mb: 0.18 degrees F cooler
150 mb: 0.30 degrees F cooler
90 mb: 0.44 degrees F cooler

(it also shows higher levels, though the stratosphere isn't relevant here)

From this, it appears that below 500 mb warming is occurring and above 500 mb cooling (this has also been fairly consistent since I came across the site a few months ago).


This data looks messed up on that link. How can 1998 be colder than now? The El Nino of 1998 was the warmest on record.
Tampaspin -- left a song on your blog.... geeze, looks like the lake of Mexico... not complaining though.... I need the HOT SUN more then waves.... least for a while
TAMPA SPIN-I like your blog,alot of cool satellite loops and earthquake info.I Wanted to leave a comment,but could not find where to type it.
Quoting txag91met:


This data looks messed up on that link. How can 1998 be colder than now? The El Nino of 1998 was the warmest on record.


According to the denialists, yes (it was also the strongest El Nino on record but of course there is also the trend - ENSO of course doesn't cause global warming), but not according to this:



In addition, this explains what is happening in the Arctic (you can see the effect of the warming Arctic on global temperatures here and why some other datasets show less warming as they don't include the Arctic, note that those look more like the "low latitudes" graph below than the graph above):

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
11:00 PM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 9:30 pm Australia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [993 hPa] located at 14.5S 128.8E or 85 kms west-southwest of Port Keats and 130 kms northeast of Wyndham has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported moving southeast at 4 knots and is expected to slow and begin moving towards the south or southwest later.

Tropical Cyclone Billy is expected to cross the coast between Wyndham and the NT/WA border during Friday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Port Keats on Friday morning and may extend further inland into the east Kimberley region later on Friday or early Saturday. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast between Wyndham and Port Keats during Friday.

Widespread heavy rainfall is likely over the southern Darwin-Daly district, the northern Victoria River district and northern parts of the Kimberley over the next 3 days. Significant stream rises and local flooding are expected in these areas on Friday, extending westwards to the north Kimberley over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin (1200z 18DEC)
---------------------------------

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.7S 128.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.0S 128.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.4S 126.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.2S 123.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The tropical low has intensified rapidly during the day, with well defined spiral banding evident on Wyndham radar and has been named Tropical Cyclone 'Billy'. The system continued to track slowly towards the southeast, but has recently moved in a series of loops while intensifying. Dvorak analysis at 1200 UTC based on a shear pattern with a radar-derived LLCC on the edge of an area of
deep cold cloud.

FT based on DT=3.0, MET=2.5, PAT=3.0. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying in a favourable low shear environment despite close proximity to the coast. It is forecast to turn slowly towards the southwest or west during the next 12-24 hours under the influence of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the southwest and move inland over the eastern Kimberley region.
Also, an interesting thing regarding ENSO is that although El Ninos warm the surface, that is because the ocean releases (and looses) heat, which is then lost to space - so an El Nino actually results in heat loss from the system; during La Ninas the opposite is true (the cold water upwelled absorbs heat, the heat doesn't disappear from the system, just gets transferred into the ocean). Also, you have probably seen stuff regarding what will happen to ENSO as the climate warms; I have an idea that we may actually see more La Ninas based on some things I have seen (such as semi-permanent El Nino conditions during the last Ice Age and semi-permanent La Nina conditions during some warm periods). This is also supported by the fact that the western Pacific has warmed up more than the eastern Pacific over the last few decades (though with cycles like the PDO it is uncertain until a few more decades pass as the +PDO phase peaked in the 1980s)
Quoting hydrus:
TAMPA SPIN-I like your blog,alot of cool satellite loops and earthquake info.I Wanted to leave a comment,but could not find where to type it.


At the bottom where it says comments...
I thought this was also interesting:

Two trillion tons of land ice lost since 2003, rate of Greenland summer ice loss triples 2007 record

The AP reports on new data to be presented today at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union:

More than 2 trillion tons of land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted since 2003, according to new NASA satellite data that show the latest signs of what scientists say is global warming.

More than half of the loss of landlocked ice in the past five years has occurred in Greenland, based on measurements of ice weight by NASA’s GRACE satellite, said NASA geophysicist Scott Luthcke. The water melting from Greenland in the past five years would fill up about 11 Chesapeake Bays, he said, and the Greenland melt seems to be accelerating.

This staggering ice loss is all the more worrisome because it was not predicted by the IPCC’s climate models. As Penn State climatologist Richard Alley said in March 2006, the ice sheets appear to be shrinking “100 years ahead of schedule.” In 2001, the IPCC thought that neither Greenland nor Antarctica would lose significant mass by 2100. They both already are.
255. P451
Wild winter ahead!

Substantial Snow in New Orleans, Vegas, Malibu regions.

Blizzards already in the Dakotas and Montana and severe arctic outbreaks plunging to 40 below zero in those regions.

Now it's the North East US's turn to really get in on things.

Check out Northern Westchester Forecast WOW They will be talking about feet of snow in total come Monday morning!

Down here in Central Jersey the first storm has us on the slushy side but then Saturday Night and Sunday Night has us in for solid snowfall with a slush storm on Sunday.

All this, combined with numerous inch-deep accumulations already. We're in for it this year!

About time...I've been tired of these mild winters. This is also very early for my region and definitely for others as well.

The period of mild winters just came to a screeching halt! That tends to happen about once every 5-7 years where I live. It's been 6 so right on target!
165. GBlet 1:49 PM PST on December 17, 2008

Did anyone catch Sci Fi last night? Some scientist believe that the crystal skulls contain the info to stop the damage that we have done to the planet.


um...that was the last "Indiana Jones" movie....you sure you weren't watching HBO last night?


257. GBlet
Anybody up for some freezing fog or drizzle, come on now there's plenty to go around!
258. GBlet
No amy, Lester Holt from NBC hosted it on SCI FI tue nite. It was very interesting stuff!
259. GBlet
Really interesting to know that they are made of the material we use in computers to store info.
260. GBlet
HELLO, HELLO, HELLO, is there anybody in there?
Alright!!!!!!!!!!! Pink Floyd on the weather blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!
262. GBlet
HEY PREES! Glad somebody knows good music!
263. GBlet
BOY...
264. GBlet
I wanna head south soooo bad right now!

well, well vort....

Aren't you just a charming little ray of sunshine?!?!?!?
...he he he...

Tomorrow's snow forecast for at least 4 inches:



Photobucket
GBlet....come on down....it's a beautiful day in the Lowcountry....
270. GBlet
Just read that Las Vegas got about 3in last nite, shut everything down. Look crazy with snow on pirate ship at TI.
Heck yeah GBlet...it's 80 down here right now...come on down!

272. GBlet
I can hear the beer in Brownsville calling my name!
273. GBlet
You guys are mean...
I think she's serious.
Already thinking about beer and heading south...ROFL!!
275. GBlet
I keeping waiting for someone to slide through front of store. That's one way to get a day off from this place.
gonna pull the canvass off the Wrangler and head out to the beach....
..."beer in Brownsville"... sounds like the beginning of a pretty good country song.....
278. GBlet
Can't wait to finish "Hillbilly Mansion", so that I can go south. Will be there for the whole month of June. Taking my son for his graduation trip. He is quadrapalegic with CP. He loves water, so we are going to the gulf! I want to make sure we stay until everyone is sick of seagulls and ready to go home.
..."beer in Brownsville"... sounds like the beginning of a pretty good country song.....


Yup...Hung over in Houston!
LMAO

That's it GB...stay till you're sick of it!
LOL

281. GBlet
I want my beer out of ice chest, not out of snowdrift!
Quoting presslord:
gonna pull the canvass off the Wrangler and head out to the beach....
I think you are forgetting something...?
you're not in Cancun anymore, buddy.. . .
I'm heading out east to the Polo barns... weather is really nice for workouts and later for young bucks game...........ahhhh Presslord... got a few frisky mares --looking for adventure?
Presslord -
hope your feeling better!!!!
Should be nice and warm on Saturday
for about an hour or two
Cant wait for this party!!!!!
adios friends....sunnny day, chasing the clouds away -- it's warm, it's bright, gentle breeze ---"it's such a perfect day".... geeze just remembered Lou Reed -- a blast from the past
Should be nice and warm on Saturday
for about an hour or two



Geesh...that long Emmy??
Me too!!!!!Portlight Party !!!!!-- love the cam -- should be good weather too? got work in the AM -- should be around in the PM --- I'm late, I'm late.......whoooosh
LOL - with my luck about 25 minutes Vort

Oh yes Surf - wish you were here too!

txaq91met~ Here's the monthly Stratosphere temps ranked, scroll about to the bottom. Nov's comes out on the 18th. We keep setting records for it being the coldest. I think it was one of those things widely not expected but in the world of Chemistry further chinches the greenhouse effect.

Kinda like they didn't widely expect melt water to gather under the glaciers to slide them out to sea, on a much faster demise.

Earth Quake in the Dominican Republic 5.1 to 5.3 magnitude about 50 minutes ago. No damage reported yet. Those folks can't catch a break.
This was in there~ NH sea ice extent anomily.. DR Masters hadn't posted it lately. Looking a little shakey there at the end..


Surfmom~ WEather couldn't be nicer for some polo.
Photobucket


5.1
Date-Time Thursday, December 18, 2008 at 17:13:48 UTC
Thursday, December 18, 2008 at 01:13:48 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.626°N, 69.370°W
Depth 106.3 km (66.1 miles) set by location program
Region DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Distances 10 km (6 miles) NW (315°) from Consuelo, San Pedro de Macorís, Dominican Republic
20 km (12 miles) NNW (341°) from San Pedro de Macorís, San Pedro de Macorís, Dominican Republic
20 km (12 miles) SW (216°) from Hato Mayor, Hato Mayor, Dominican Republic
63 km (39 miles) ENE (77°) from SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic
Dr. Masters may want to specify that this is lenghting is only true for the "North" Atlantic.
The "South" Atlantic seems to be a newly developing bed for hurricanes and there may well be more of them heading toward Brasil and curving south.
This is some good Ice discussion. I hope you are mirroring it on the climate change blog.
296. P451
The Sister Swirls in the Central Atlantic.

I guess the southern one was to be Rene but little to no convection ever developed (I think there was a poof or two here and there.

297. KRL
Record snowfall in Las Vegas - LOL



If that is the swirl at 35.5N/57.5W, I've been watching that simply because of presentation. Very symmetrically round and full banding all the way around. Seems to be mid-upper level only, though and not much moisture.

But, pretty nonetheless.


Record snowfall in Spokane, WA also. Breaking record set in.... 1984. Records go back to 1881.

Link
I am sitting in my kitchen looking out at a beautiful sun setting. Did I mention that I am in the western suburbs of Chicago? This must be the calm before the storm because it is lovely, winds calm. No sign of trouble yet. All schools are on alert for a possible snow day tomorrow.
Wow, here in S. Ontario we will get some snow. There's about 7 cm (3 in) on the ground right now. I think by Friday night there will be 20 cm (8 in), 40 cm by Tuesday (16 in), and 48 cm by Christmas (19 in)!
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
5:00 AM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 3:30 am Austalia CST. Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [991 hPa] located at 14.6S 128.8E, or 90 kms west-southwest of Port Keats and 120 kms northeast of Wyndham has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gust of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 3 knots, but is expected to begin moving towards the southwest later.

Tropical Cyclone Billy is expected to cross the coast between Wyndham and the NT/WA border later this morning.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal communities from Kalumburu in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

TC Technical Bulletin (1800z 18DEC)
================================
12 HRS: 15.0S 128.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.0S 127.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.2S 125.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has been tracking slowly southeast, but has recently turned in a more southerly direction. Dvorak analysis at 1800 UTC based on central cloud cover pattern with radar-derived LLCC centred under area of deep cold cloud.

FT based on MET=2.5, PAT=3.0. The cyclone is near the coast with little intensification expected before crossing the coast in the next 6 to 12 hours. It is then expected to turn slowly towards the southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the southwest.


AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN KS...SRN AND SERN NEB...WRN/NWRN
MO...FAR SWRN IA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 181735Z - 182330Z

OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS SERN NEB...NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HRLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.20 ARE
LIKELY.

A LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THE SFC FREEZING
LINE WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS KS AND MO THIS AFTERNOON...RESTING NEAR
I-70 BY 00Z. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN...ONGOING ACROSS
SRN KS AS OF 17Z...WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES NWD. WHILE SOME ICING
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. STRONG LIFT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RASH OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS OVER MUCH OF NRN/NERN KS...SERN
NEB...AND NWRN MO. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS WILL
EXPAND NEWD INTO IA AND IL AFTER 00Z.

..JEWELL.. 12/18/2008

Snow in Malibu, CA yesterday.
Link
Actually, that was in 2007, but they did have snow there yesterday.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
5:00 AM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 3:30 am Austalia CST. Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [991 hPa] located at 14.6S 128.8E, or 90 kms west-southwest of Port Keats and 120 kms northeast of Wyndham has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gust of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 3 knots, but is expected to begin moving towards the southwest later.

Tropical Cyclone Billy is expected to cross the coast between Wyndham and the NT/WA border later this morning.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal communities from Kalumburu in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

TC Technical Bulletin (1800z 18DEC)
================================
12 HRS: 15.0S 128.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.0S 127.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.2S 125.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has been tracking slowly southeast, but has recently turned in a more southerly direction. Dvorak analysis at 1800 UTC based on central cloud cover pattern with radar-derived LLCC centred under area of deep cold cloud.

FT based on MET=2.5, PAT=3.0. The cyclone is near the coast with little intensification expected before crossing the coast in the next 6 to 12 hours. It is then expected to turn slowly towards the southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the southwest.


I have A cyclone! :D
Billy Jr. ;D
306. P451
The USA looks like an XMas tree.

US Advisories

The North East is going to be lit up through about Monday at this rate.

This early winter has already brought so much I just feel like it's got even more to offer much more.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Dr. Masters may want to specify that this is lenghting is only true for the "North" Atlantic.
The "South" Atlantic seems to be a newly developing bed for hurricanes and there may well be more of them heading toward Brasil and curving south.


While there have been three over a period of two years (04-06), that does not qualify the Southern Atlantic as a Cyclone producing region... those storms were anomalies. Outside of that there have been two recorded storms... we still have a long way to go b4 we start talking about the Southern Atlantic Cyclone season.
It took a while for winter to arrive here in the northeast,but its here!!!
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
8:00 AM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

IMMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE

At 6:30 am Australia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [988 hPa] located at 14.5S 128.8E or 130 kms northeast of Wyndham and 85 km west-southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gust of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 1 knot, but is expected to begin moving towards the southwest later.

The cyclone may intensify further before landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Billy is expected to cross the coast between Wyndham and the North Territory/Western Australia border later today.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal communities from Kalumburu in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.
hurristat I sent you mail.
Quoting Skyepony:
txaq91met~ Here's the monthly Stratosphere temps ranked, scroll about to the bottom. Nov's comes out on the 18th. We keep setting records for it being the coldest. I think it was one of those things widely not expected but in the world of Chemistry further chinches the greenhouse effect.

Kinda like they didn't widely expect melt water to gather under the glaciers to slide them out to sea, on a much faster demise.



Actually, that isn't true; if greenhouse gasses are the cause of the observed warming (models also predict this), the surface and lowest part of the troposphere should warm but further up warming is less and eventually switches over to cooling. The site I linked to earlier says that:

During global warming, the atmosphere near the surface is supposed to warm at least as fast as the surface warms, while the upper layers are supposed to cool much faster than the surface warms.


Weather Underground also as a page on that in their climate section (some links to more technical stuff as well); ozone loss also causes cooling but only where the ozone layer is, cooling is also occurring higher up; the following in particular is startling (a very good thing the surface is only warming at 1/100th of this rate!):

Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2-3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling!


Billy is expected to become a Category Two cyclone (between 50-65 knots) before landfall north of Wyndham.
Quoting hurristat:


While there have been three over a period of two years (04-06), that does not qualify the Southern Atlantic as a Cyclone producing region... those storms were anomalies. Outside of that there have been two recorded storms... we still have a long way to go b4 we start talking about the Southern Atlantic Cyclone season.
Again we are hampered by lack of reliable records. The S Atlantic may go through cycles of formation that act on a different scale from the NATL and other basins. How far back do our storm databases go for that area? Are they reliable enough in reporting the features of the storms encountered to enable us to discern an existing pattern?

Sometimes an anomaly is only an anomaly until the pattern it fits is discovered. . .
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Billy is expected to become a Category Two cyclone (between 50-65 knots) before landfall north of Wyndham.
Hmmm. What do u think are the chances of the low hanging about long enough to exit near Kuri Bay?
Michael~ Back in the early '90s Chem class for science majors...we expected the stratosphere to become exteme end of cold as we know it but widely in the community at large it wasn't really known or expected til there became no doubt. I linked current data that totally supports what you said. It shows the upper ends of our atmosphere like 3rd coldest last month.

I can't get your link to open either. Good stuff though. Dr Masters has done a few blogs on it.
The east is expected to switch to a progressive pattern with a deep mean trough embedded while a ridge builds in the west next week. Looks like a white Christmas favors more those to the east.
It would be interesting to see more on the minimum temp for 'cane formation rising. It seems we've had a few freak storms lately that formed in waters cooler than the current minimum temps. I wish I had a little time to look at the stats on that.
Found an interesting comment here about S. ATL cyclones, in which the writer remarks "A broad convergence zone like this needs to reach about 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator in order for the Coriolis Force to have sufficient intensity to organize a full-fledged tropical cyclone, and the Atlantic ITCZ almost never shifts that far south. . ."

I'm thinking about how far south we've been seeing the ITCZ loop some years and wondering if shifts in global SST patterns (I'm thinking about naturally occurring longer range shifts, like those related to NAO / PDO e.g.) could result in a longer "season" for S Atlantic / near Equator cyclones (like Vaimei e.g.). Maybe the S Atlantic "tropical season" has a 10 or 15 year recurrance wave . . . I'm also curious how effective sat. coverage of the S. Atlantic was in say, the 60s, when compared with the NAO. I can't say I'd see the scientists of the time spending much time/energy peering at the SAO when the NAO is where the US landing storms are most likely to form . . .
Atmospheric Circulation



Microscale

* Size: meters
* Time: seconds

Mesoscale

* Size: kilometers
* Time: minutes to hours

Macroscale
Synoptic

* Size: 100s to 1000s kilometers
* Time: days

Global (planetary)

* Size: Global!
* Time: Days to weeks

Macroscale Circulation Link

To begin, imagine the earth as a non-rotating sphere with uniform smooth surface characteristics.
Assume that the sun heats the equatorial regions much more than the polar regions.
In response to this, two huge convection cells develop.
Seasonal and Long-Term Variations of Particle Fluxes Induced by ...
The high particle fluxes in December-May are attributed to the strong NE trade wind caused by southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). ...Link

lol...latest Senate vote between Coleman and Franken...Coleman up by 2! That was after millions of votes! Just goes to show you..every vote counts!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm. What do u think are the chances of the low hanging about long enough to exit near Kuri Bay?

Cyclone Billy threatens Kimberley coast Link
Cyclone Billy brewing to category 2
Link
Was there a earthquake in S.C Tuesday? I slept most of the day, did I miss something?
TC Billy is currently 100km's NNE of Wyndham and about 19km from landfall. Looking really nice on RADAR Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Actually, that isn't true; if greenhouse gasses are the cause of the observed warming (models also predict this), the surface and lowest part of the troposphere should warm but further up warming is less and eventually switches over to cooling. The site I linked to earlier says that:


During global warming, the atmosphere near the surface is supposed to warm at least as fast as the surface warms, while the upper layers are supposed to cool much faster than the surface warms.


Weather Underground also as a page on that in their climate section (some links to more technical stuff as well); ozone loss also causes cooling but only where the ozone layer is, cooling is also occurring higher up; the following in particular is startling (a very good thing the surface is only warming at 1/100th of this rate!):


Even greater cooling of 17 C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2-3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling!


My point exactly: global warming is a VERY complicated process. This year, Discover magazine reported enormous chunks of ice falling from a clear sky as a result of climate change! Also, since the extra sky pressing onto the troposphere would thus increase its pressure, and thus its heat content, would this count as a positive feedback mechanism?
there was a blogger on here a few years ago who traveled the coastline documenting Katrina's aftermath... could someone please link me if you remember...thx
North...yea....we had a 3.6 just North of Charleston....no biggie....
329. P451
Quoting presslord:
North...yea....we had a 3.6 just North of Charleston....no biggie....


I dunno...I wouldn't call it no biggie when you live in a region that has infrequent EQs that is known to have massive ones when it decides to remind you it's still there.

It's been a while since SC had a big one and it does every so often.

Anyways, this was the event.
330. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
TC Billy is currently 100km's NNE of Wyndham and about 19km from landfall. Looking really nice on RADAR Link
Cheers AussieStorm


Mostly a rainmaker I suspect? Little breezy no doubt.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol...latest Senate vote between Coleman and Franken...Coleman up by 2! That was after millions of votes! Just goes to show you..every vote counts!!!
Lol there are likely two Coleman voters out there who are glad they voted, and three Franken supporters who are mad they didn't. . . lol
Link
un tormenta tropical nuevo en el Ociano Pacifico?
Quoting AussieStorm:
TC Billy is currently 100km's NNE of Wyndham and about 19km from landfall. Looking really nice on RADAR Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Gotta love the new BOM toys available online. When I first went to their website, they didn't even let u see the radars, much less with all the bells and whistles . . . lol

That COC is pretty well defined. Looks like it might stay intact long enough to cross the peninsula.
A little Christmas ditty for the evening...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Again we are hampered by lack of reliable records. The S Atlantic may go through cycles of formation that act on a different scale from the NATL and other basins. How far back do our storm databases go for that area? Are they reliable enough in reporting the features of the storms encountered to enable us to discern an existing pattern?

Sometimes an anomaly is only an anomaly until the pattern it fits is discovered. . .


Exactly why I said recorded storms, not storms.
Hey guys, not a professional, but I am monitoring the redar. Are we in for a storm in Chicago as big as predicted? Not much on radar. Amature...
Quoting MidWtornado:
Hey guys, not a professional, but I am monitoring the redar. Are we in for a storm in Chicago as big as predicted? Not much on radar. Amature...


Um... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=a4&size=2x&type=loop

Mind you, this is 1-3 in. per hour you're looking at here. So yes, you're gonna get nailed.

338. ayi
Quoting P451:


Mostly a rainmaker I suspect? Little breezy no doubt.


Interesting how Kalumburu has only had about 8mm rain in the past 50 odd hours but Wadeye has had about 330mm in the same time. The rainfall is very one sided about TC Billy's COC.
In comment 252, I mentioned that it appeared that the western Pacific was warming faster than the eastern Pacific (graphic since 1982) and I found something that supports this observation - and back through at least the late 1800s:

Second Mode of Variability: ENSO

The second PC/EOF of the world sea surface temperature anomaly is also interesting.



This is the characteristic signature of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); there is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and a cooling in the western Pacific with little change elsewhere. I mention this not because it’s interesting that ENSO is a dominant mode of variability in the world SST data, but because of the corresponding principle component time series.



At first glance, this does not look like an ENSO time series. However, there is a large spike in the year 1998 which was the year of the super El Nino. Also indicative of an ENSO signal is the peak for the 1983 ENSO, and the current La Nina. But the main signature of this figure is the downward trend. Looking at the EOF figure above, we can interpret what this means. Since the early 1900s, the temperature in the tropical Pacific has been decreasing (the EOF is positive and the trend is negative), while the western Pacific has been warming (a negative EOF and a negative trend).
well, ns sherlock, given the phase of the PDO...

looks to me like the western Pacific would warm as a result...

Oscillation rules as the Pacific Ocean cools
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
5:21 PM ACST December 18 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 pm WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [983 hPa] located at 14.5S 128.7E or 125 kms north-northeast of Wyndham and 95 kms west-southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Gale-Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

The cyclone may intensify further before landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Billy is expected to cross the coast near Wyndham tonight.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 14.8S 128.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.0S 127.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.5S 125.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' is moving slowly west southwest. Dvorak analysis at 0600 UTC based on central dense overcast pattern with radar-derived LLCC centred under area of deep cold cloud.

FT based on DT=3.5 MET=3.5. It is expected to
continue moving towards the southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the southwest.
CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers had never bought into the notion that man can alter the climate and the Vegas snowstorm didn’t impact his opinion. Myers, an American Meteorological Society certified meteorologist, explained on CNN’s Dec. 18 “Lou Dobbs Tonight” that the whole idea is arrogant and mankind was in danger of dying from other natural events more so than global warming.



“You know, to think that we could affect weather all that much is pretty arrogant,” Myers said. “Mother Nature is so big, the world is so big, the oceans are so big – I think we’re going to die from a lack of fresh water or we’re going to die from ocean acidification before we die from global warming, for sure.”

http://businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081218205953.aspx
Anybody awake at this ungodly hour?

5.5 offa the coast of Chile. Near Valpairiso (sp?) where we were watching a volcano last year about this time, I believe.

tsunami warnings anyone? thanks
Morning
ILM has FOG with a vis of 1/2 mile
58F
Forecast is for 72F and partly cloudy
Storm that walloped Southwest targets the East


(CNN) -- After blanketing parts of the Southwest with snow, a major winter storm headed eastward late Thursday with new strength, the National Weather Service said.

"This is essentially the reincarnation of the same storm that brought the heavy snow to parts of California, southern Nevada and northern Arizona," Steve Corfidi, lead forecaster with the weather service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, told CNNRadio.

Corfidi said the storm is expected to maintain intensity into Saturday, continuing eastward and "spreading a swath of very heavy snow and freezing rain all the way into Pennsylvania and New York."

Storm watches and warnings extended from the central Plains to the mid- and north-Atlantic coast, he said.

"There could easily be up to a foot of snow over parts of Illinois, northern Indiana, perhaps into parts of Michigan and southern Wisconsin, eastward into parts of New York and Pennsylvania," Corfidi said.

The system should move quickly, Corfidi said. It was not shaping up as an extraordinary winter event, he said.

"It is December, and winter storms certainly raise their ugly heads this time of year," Corfidi said.




From Accuweather:


Storms Target Major Cities Coast to Coast

Photobucket

The fast-moving storm that dumped over 3 inches of snow on Wednesday in Las Vegas will slam a number of major cities east of the Rockies today, including Chicago, New York and Boston, creating the potential for widespread travel problems.

Expert Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says that the week before Christmas could be the stormiest week of the winter of 2008 - 2009.

Photobucket

The near-constant parade of storms that began last week will continue to spread a nasty mix of rain, ice and snow across the country right up until Christmas Eve.

The recent storm in the Southwest and a new storm in the Northwest have dropped phenomenal snowfall in some areas. Dry, desert areas that typically see little or no snow through the entire winter have been buried by heavy snow from these single storms.

Snow is being measured in feet over interior Washington, while the ground was blanketed with snow in southern Nevada.

Three storms over the next week will move from the West Coast across the central Plains into the Midwest and the Northeast. Each will produce substantial snow and heavy rain sandwiched around a dangerous band of icy precipitation.


Photobucket

Quoting NEwxguy:
It took a while for winter to arrive here in the northeast,but its here!!!


Um, winter doesn't start for another day or 3.
347. ayi
From the Wyndham radar it appears TC Billy is finally starting to cross the coast.
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR072.loop.shtml
Wow,got up this morning and everything is covered in ice. Went to my office and now it is lightning and thundering.
Metar for ksbn says 11 knots from ESE, broken clouds at 700 ft, 32F, 29F dew point.

Everything is closed and the road in front of my house is not carrying much traffic.

One of the dangers of this kind of storm is getting iced into your house. Both doors here were difficult to open. A little more ice and the door would have had to have been broken to exit the building.

Earthquake in North Atlantic......very unsual spot....NO Tsunami was expected..

Magnitude 5.9 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2008 December 19 08:31:52 UTC
Morning all! Tampa - how's the Christmas music coming along?
Good day, to all.
Still raining here (Trinidad), including a major cloud-burst over the city of Port-of-Spain last evening. In several of the valleys around the city, roads were washed out, homes damaged, bridges overtopped.
Looking at the sat-loops, more to come as well.
Going to be a wet weekend and beyond, from the looks of things.
Click to enlarge......
Quoting conchygirl:
Morning all! Tampa - how's the Christmas music coming along?


Had it almost done and lost it all when the i walked away the darn cat jumped up on the desk and hit the keyboard and locked my computer up....can you believe it.....LOL i will try again....i will get it done by Tuesday...LOL
Quoting pottery:
Good day, to all.
Still raining here (Trinidad), including a major cloud-burst over the city of Port-of-Spain last evening. In several of the valleys around the city, roads were washed out, homes damaged, bridges overtopped.
Looking at the sat-loops, more to come as well.
Going to be a wet weekend and beyond, from the looks of things.
Stay safe Pottery. Have you visited the training camp. LOL
Oh, Tampa. I know it really isn't funny but I am laughing so hard now at the thought of the cat doing that ~
Click to enlarge.....



Doc foretold the future 2 years ago!
Hurricane Tomas made 2010 the fourth straight year with a November hurricane, something that has never occurred in the Atlantic since accurate records began in 1851.