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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on November 20, 2009

We should emit as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as possible and oppose efforts to regulate CO2 emissions, because more CO2 is good for the Earth. That's the take-home message of an audacious TV ad that was run this fall by the advocacy group, CO2isgreen.com. "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life", the ad proclaims.

It's the brainchild of H. Leighton Steward, a retired oil industry executive, and Corbin J. Robertson, Jr., chief executive and leading shareholder in Natural Resource Partners, a Houston-based owner of coal resources that lets other companies mine, in return for royalties. According to an article in the Washington Post, the ad ran this fall in New Mexico and Montana, which have key Congressmen that CO2isgreen.com hopes to sway. The ads form part of a major PR campaign being waged by the fossil fuel industry and its allies in advance of the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference, which will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge.


Figure 1. Screen shot of the new ad by the advocacy group CO2isgreen.com.

Let's consider the scientific accuracy of the ad's three main points:

1) "Congress is considering a law that would classify CO2 as pollution. This will cost us jobs".
Well, this is a reasonable concern. Fossil fuels represent the foundation upon which modern civilization is built. The marvelous inventions of civilized life that have brought increased health, lifespan, and prosperity to billions of people are largely due to the use of fossil fuels. Regulating CO2 and moving to non-fossil fuel based energy sources won't be cheap or easy, and there is a potential for significant economic harm if our politicians bungle the job. The fossil fuel industry employs millions of people, and some of these jobs will no doubt be lost as new "green" energy sources are developed. However, the longer-term economic benefits of moving to a less fossil fuel-intensive economy, plus the jobs created as a result, must be weighed against the shorter term economic disruption that may occur.

2) "There is no scientific evidence that CO2 is a pollutant".
Webster's dictionary defines a pollutant as "man-made waste that contaminates an environment". Webster's defines "contaminate" as "to make inferior or impure". CO2 is man-made waste, and there is scientific evidence that added CO2 can make our atmosphere "inferior" to its present state, or else the EPA would not be considering regulations. As just one example, when CO2 is dissolved in the oceans, the water grows more acidic. Corals and other creatures that build shells out of calcium carbonate cannot form their shells if the acidity passes a critical level--their shells will dissolve. Thus, for these organisms, CO2 is definitely a pollutant. Several shell-building planktonic organisms, such as coccolithophorids, pteropods, and foraminifera, form an important basis of the food chain in cold ocean waters, and the continued increase in CO2 emissions have many scientists very concerned about a collapse of the oceanic food chain in these regions in coming decades. Presumably, CO2isgreen.com is taking the very narrow view that a pollutant is something that harms human health when breathed. The more important question is, how does CO2 emitted by fossil fuel generation, plus all the effects that come with it, impact human health and the health of Earth's ecosystems?

3) "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life".
It is true that many plants grow faster under enhanced CO2--the so-called "CO2 fertilization effect". Just ask your neighborhood commercial indoor marijuana grower, who probably grows his or her plants in an enhanced CO2 environment. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found that crop yields under unstressed conditions increased by 0 - 25% for a doubling of CO2, and that growth of young tree stands also increased. However, the IPCC noted that ground level ozone pollution will limit the CO2 fertilization effect. Ozone pollution is caused by emissions from fossil fuel burning, and will increase in a warmer world since the chemical reactions that create ozone act more efficiently at higher temperatures. Furthermore, the higher temperatures, increased drought, and increased insect pests that added CO2 is likely to bring to the atmosphere via greenhouse effect warming will induce major stresses to plants that will counteract the CO2 fertilization effect. A 2009 paper by Battisti and Naylor in Science titled, "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat", reported that the 2003 heat wave in Europe--featuring temperatures predicted to be the norm by the end of the century--reduced harvests of fruits and grains by 21 - 36%. The 2007 IPCC report noted, "even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally and low latitude regions". Most of the world's population at risk of starvation live in such regions (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa).

To get more CO2 in the air, we have to mine, transport, and burn fossil fuels, and potentially fight wars to protect them. This creates a host of effects highly detrimental to people and ecosystems:

1) Particle pollution, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides emitted as a result of burning coal and operating motor vehicles cause over $118 billion in health and other damages per year in the U.S., according to a Congressionally-ordered National Academy of Sciences study released last month. The study said this was a "substantial underestimate", as it did not consider climate change-related costs, or pollution emissions from a wide variety of other sources.

2) Oil and natural gas drilling and oil spills have had catastrophic effects on many ecosystems over the past century, and will continue to do so. Coal mining via mountaintop removal has laid waste to vast regions of the Appalachians, obliterating over 700 miles of rivers and streams. Failures of slurry ponds dams such as the one that failed in December 2008 in Tennessee have contaminated numerous ecosystems, and killed hundreds (the Buffalo Creek, WV dam failure of 1972 killed 125, and a 1966 slurry pond dam failure in Aberfan, Wales killed 144, including 126 schoolchildren). The Physicians for Social Responsibility put out a report this week called Coal's Assault on Human Health that details many more examples of how coal is bad for ecosystems and human health.

3) Coal mining accidents killed 65 miners in the U.S. in 2006, and kill tens of thousands of miners worldwide each year (China has averaged 6,000 deaths per year this decade). Tens of thousands of miners contract black lung disease each year, as well.

The Greening of Planet Earth
Fossil fuel industry-funded Public Relations campaigns focusing on the benefits of CO2 for life on Earth are nothing new. In 2006, I blogged about a TV ad run by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) that proclaimed, "as for carbon dioxide, it isn't smog or smoke, it's what we breathe out and plants breathe in. Carbon dioxide: they call it pollution, we call it life.". In 1991, coal giant Western Fuels founded an organization called "The Greening Earth Society" which spent $250,000 to produce the video, "The Greening of Planet Earth" (available on Youtube). The 30-minute movie features scientists who describe in glowing terms the tremendous increases in plant growth that will occur due to increased CO2. Set to appropriately stirring music, the movie concludes: "The future also holds great promise. And contributing to this promise is the positive effect that carbon dioxide has upon our world. Crop plants will continue to grow more productively, contributing to ever-greater supplies of food. Forests will extend their ranges. Grasses will grow where none grow now. And great tracts of barren land we be reclaimed. In fact, it is not inconceivable that the vitality of our biosphere could rise by a full order of magnitude over the next few centuries, to a new, greening Planet Earth". According to Boston Globe investigative reporter Ross Gelbspan in his book The Heat is On, the movie was shown extensively in Washington D.C. and in the capitals of OPEC nations, and was the favorite movie of President George H.W. Bush's chief of staff, John Sununu. It's interesting to note that The Greening Earth Society shares the same mailing address and fax number as the Americans for Balanced Energy Choices (ABEC), a fossil fuel industry front group that was given $35 million to fight climate change regulation in 2008. According to the creators of desmogblog.com, a website dedicated to "Clearing the PR Pollution that Clouds Climate Science", that money, plus an extra $5 million, was shuffled to a new industry front group called the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and used to help fund the "Clean Coal" TV ads that dominated the airwaves during the November 2008 election. The details are in the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore.

Commentary
The CO2isgreen.com ad is beautifully produced, with multiple windows depicting flowing pictures of flowers blooming, animals grazing, crops growing, and the sun shining over these grand scenes of nature's bounty, all set to the soothing sound track of some slick New Age music. Who wouldn't want to live in such a world? Unfortunately, this is a fantasy world created by fossil fuel industry Public Relations people, and we live in the real world where physics and science rule. Oil is not clean, coal is worse, and the extraction, transportation, and burning of fossil fuels that accompany the enhanced-CO2 world we live in are already causing massive environmental destruction. Add in the immense environmental damage likely to occur as a result of the coming climate change storm, and the fantasy that more CO2 will be good for the world dissolves into a nightmare for a huge proportion of Earth's ecosystems--and the people who depend upon them for life.

Hacked emails purport to show climate scientists' cover-up
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia this week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Realclimate.org has an interesting response to the debacle, saying the emails are a "presumably careful selection of (possibly edited?) correspondence dating back to 1996 and as recently as Nov 12)". They show one example of a "cherry-picked" distortion of one of the emails that global warming contrarians are using to try to discredit the science of climate change, and successfully refute the distortion, in my mind. The realclimate groups adds:

"More interesting is what is not contained in the emails. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to "get rid of the Medieval Warm Period", no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no "marching orders" from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. But if cherry-picked out-of-context phrases from stolen personal emails is the only response to the weight of the scientific evidence for the human influence on climate change, then there probably isn't much to it".

There's not a person alive who would not look bad if their private emails made public, taken out of context, and subjected to attack. The reputations of all the scientists involved will suffer, as will understanding of the science of climate change. Global warming contrarians have not been able to effectively dispute the reality of human-caused climate change by publishing peer-reviewed scientific articles, so they've done what any effective (and unethical) politician would do--resort to personal attacks of dubious merit on their opponents, in an attempt to muddy the waters and distract people from the facts. That's politics, and it's not too surprising to see this sort of ugly episode in a game where the stakes are so high.

None of the so-called "smoking gun" emails the contrarians are excited about change what I pointed out in in my previous post: Arctic sea ice was at a new record low this month, human-emitted greenhouse gases are largely to blame, and the polar ice cap is expected to melt by 2030, throwing the climate into a dangerous new unstable mode.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Inyo:
also, this blog is anything but 'full of liberals', if anything the comments lean pretty far right of the mainstream.


Was this a JOKE?
I am a journeyman machinest. 0.46 mm is HUGE. Put your finger in a vice. Tighten it till your finger feels uncomfortable. Now tighten it 0.46 mm more. All depends on your perspective.
I think I would prefer to call it 460,000 nanometers, myself...
GRACE measures how much smaller Greenland is in Gigatons each year, scientists did the math to figure how much rise that would lead to the ocean per year. In that context .75mm would be the yearly average from 2006 to 2008 that the sea level rose because of Greenland alone, significant since such a large % of rise in such a short time, with .46mm the average the decade before...it was in italics cause it was straight copied from the article.

This too could have much to do with the Positive PNA that Masters discussed earlier today. Here's some info if lost. Because it's suddenly switched on doesn't mean it won't undo. But it's a huge anomaly & somewhat stuck recently. Three years & the large % change is worth noting.

18z gfs. By the end of it the only precip over the entire country is snow! :)
Also note that this gulf storm dies out rather than becoming a noreaster.

In Weather news..

Extreme canoeist dies in a flooded stream in Wales.

Dunes badly eroded on Outer Banks from Ex-Ida. No funds coming, sea oats & let nature rebuild.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I am a journeyman machinest. 0.46 mm is HUGE. Put your finger in a vice. Tighten it till your finger feels uncomfortable. Now tighten it 0.46 mm more. All depends on your perspective.


Actually, it depends on whether the surface pinching your finger is flat or pointed. If it is flat, 0.46mm aint nothing. Put a point on it and now that would hurt.

Its about the surface area of the device doing the pinching.

Just kidding..:-)
I thought Indianriverguy had a good point a ways back about how we've stayed about the same, high end but steady the last few years.. Other than the PNA everything else has been at such a negitive for heating the earth, this unusually long minimum in solar activity & where we are in space relative our dance with the sun there is the shorter term high impact natural cycle of ENSO which had been on cold, now warming up. I had gone definitely moderate, probably strong several months ago. We've reached strong & now look what's coming up..

easily should be stronger than 2002 as well as the other 2 el ninos since 1998. I'll wait atleast a few weeks to compare to 1998. 2010 should be notably hot.
Quoting Skyepony:
I had gone definitely moderate

No.
You didn't.

(snicker, snicker)

Luv ya, Skye!
What?.. next you'll be hackin my e-mails for one liners to smear across the web:)
Quoting Skyepony:
I thought Indianriverguy had a good point a ways back about how we've stayed about the same, high end but steady the last few years.. Other than the PNA everything else has been at such a negitive for heating the earth, this unusually long minimum in solar activity & where we are in space relative our dance with the sun there is the shorter term high impact natural cycle of ENSO which had been on cold, now warming up. I had gone definitely moderate, probably strong several months ago. We've reached strong & now look what's coming up..

easily should be stronger than 2002 as well as the other 2 el ninos since 1998. I'll wait atleast a few weeks to compare to 1998. 2010 should be notably hot.


It seems as if a very impressive El-Nino is building. Looks like it could become as strong as the 97 and 98 El-Nino.
512. IKE
Blog is dead.....Atlantic is dead.

Quoting Jeff9641:


It seems as if a very impressive El-Nino is building. Looks like it could become as strong as the 97 and 98 El-Nino.

A little dated, but will not have changed much in 20 days...

Nov 1, 2009:


Oct 30, 1997:


Dec 2, 2002:



I wouldn't write home to mom just yet.
Quoting winter123:
What do the models do with this one? Don't know where to find non-atlantic models. Bet the phillipenes hope its a fish.



94W's got a long way to go till it affects the Philippines. And it's got to get through a high that's blocking its path, that's also keeping 93W stationary which is just east of the Philippines.




GFS takes 94W away from Philippines

Quoting atmoaggie:

A little dated, but will not have changed much in 20 days...

Nov 1, 2009:


Oct 30, 1997:


Dec 2, 2002:



I wouldn't write home to mom just yet.


We will have to see if it falls or continues to build. If it does not fall off it may get strong but not to 97 level.
Quoting Skyepony:
GFS takes 94W away from Philippines


Yeah, as i said. there is a great big high blocking its way.
Quoting ElConando:


We will have to see if it falls or continues to build. If it does not fall off it may get strong but not to 97 level.

I think it might be just a classic, somewhat textbook moderate Nino, probably not building all that much more, and back to fully neutral by next June.
Nothingmore.

I haven't heard any lightning at all, much less in the last 20 minutes of sitting on my porch...



Yet this plot shows a bunch of it just a little to my north.
GOM IR Loop

Quoting Patrap:


What does it mean when the clouds know where the Mason-Dixon line is?
Ok, really, Union and Confederate...
They must Google it ..Im certain.


Loop
IR Ch,CONUS
Quoting atmoaggie:


What does it mean when the clouds know where the Mason-Dixon line is?
Ok, really, Union and Confederate...

Domestic Terrorist v. Manufactured Doubter
WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 6.4N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 6.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 7.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 7.7N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.5N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 148.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ISLAND HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211051Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 211100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN
------
Wow! More then 20 minutes and no post!
very very quiet
531. beell
There is some humor in the hacks. A bit from the documents titled "Fisher.txt"

I will send you the time series you need in a minute for the Central
west Greenland Stack...
And some other bits and pieces,,, The NGRIP record has the trend in it
that is no doubt closer to the truth for the fixed elevation temperature
history. But even there one could need a correction for elevation
change. The elevation corrected south GRIP Holocene has a very strong
negative delta trend in it and I expect there should be some correction
done to the north GRIP record too,, eventually I think they should all
come out looking like our records from Northern Canada. Now at least
ice core records have some low frequencies to correct... not like your
bloody trees that can not remember one century to the next,,,
(alderheimers )
Currently in Australia

Walgett Airport, NSW, 41.5°C (106.7°F)
My place in Sydney, 40.6°C(105.1°F).

Weather tomorrow will be 21°C(69°F)
The Los Angeles Times

Atlantic hurricane season appears over -- to some
Some meteorologists say it's unlikely another storm will build because of El Niño. But the National Hurricane Center says let's wait.
By Ken Kaye

November 22, 2009
Reporting from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. - The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is essentially over, even though it does not officially end until Nov. 30.

So says William Gray, Colorado State University hurricane forecaster.

Because El Niño has created strong wind shear over the tropics, "the odds of a storm are very, very small from this point on," said Gray, who closed the book on the 2009 season Thursday.

However, according to the National Hurricane Center in Florida, it's possible that the wind shear could relax over the coming weeks, and the waters in the Caribbean are still warm enough to support storm formation.

"The hurricane season goes until Nov. 30. Each day we get closer to that, it looks better and better that we won't see any more tropical activity," said center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "But don't raid the hurricane kit yet."

Feltgen said that the hurricane season looked like it was over two weeks ago. But then Ida formed in the western Caribbean. And, he said, it wouldn't be unusual for a storm to develop in December.

"Tropical cyclones have been recorded in every month outside of the standard June-through-November period," he said.

But Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of the website Weather Underground, said that since 1950, in years that El Niño has emerged only three named storms have developed in the Atlantic after Nov. 15.

El Niño is created by a warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. It generates wind shear -- a change in wind speed or direction -- and instability in the atmosphere, which acts to disrupt storms before they can build and strengthen.

If the season has, in fact, shut down, it would be considered a breeze.

In all, there were only nine named storms, including three hurricanes. Two struck the U.S. coastline this year -- Tropical Storm Claudette, which wobbled ashore on the Florida Panhandle in mid-August, and Tropical Storm Ida, which hit Alabama on Nov. 10 after initially strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Only hurricanes Bill and Fred had winds greater than 110 mph.

The average season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.

"It was a very inactive season," Gray said.

kkaye@sun-sentinel.com

Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times
Sydney hits 41C as fires rage

SCORCHING temperatures, bone-dry bush, strong winds and severe lightning storms have combined to create NSW's worst bushfire threat in 100 years.

The mercury reached 41.2C at Sydney Airport at 2pm, according to Weatherzone, with 40.1C recorded at Penrith, and 40.4C at Bankstown Airport.

The volatile cocktail of conditions has forced authorities to issue "catastrophic'' fire warnings and impose a total fire ban across most of the State.

Rural properties in central NSW are being threatened by a new bushfire believed to have been started by fallen powerlines, the Rural Fire Service said today.

An emergency warning has been issued to residents of Tara Stock Road at Gunnedah where a fire started on Sunday morning and is burning in an easterly direction.
"We are seeing properties in that area being impacted by fires,'' a RFS said.

"News of the fire has just come through, it seems to have started this morning.

Premier Nathan Rees said unprecedented conditions were expected today.

"These are conditions that haven't been seen for 100 years. It has never been this hot, dry or windy in November ever before,'' Premier Nathan Rees said.

As Sydney awaits a high of 41C today, the message from authorities is clear: this is only the beginning and dangerous conditions will be be a threat throughout summer.

At least 80 fires are now burning throughout NSW, including in the Blue Mountains, the Hawkesbury region and the north.

Late yesterday, the Rural Fire Service said homes near the NSW central west towns of Rylstone and Kandos were being threatened by a fire fanned by high winds.

As many as 1100 firefighters and 380 tankers worked around the clock to contain blazes, with thousands more on standby.

So far, no property or lives have been lost.

Dry lightning storms on Fri-day night and 45km/h winds put most of NSW under threat and the RFS on high alert.
Fire officials fear more fires may break out today as conditions worsen.

RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said anything was possible because of the conditions. He said although most of the State's safety was "of great concern'', the far west and upper and lower central plains had been classified as catastrophic, meaning their fire rating was "off the charts'' - above 100.

Deniliquin's fire index reached a record 190 yesterday.

Highly populated towns in the catastrophic zone include Dubbo, Broken Hill and Forbes, which were hoping for relief from a cool change later today.

"We don't know where the next fire is going to start and, clearly, we will be monitoring the existing fires, in light of these elevating weather conditions,'' Mr Fitzsimmons said yesterday.

"There is every likelihood a bushfire-prone area could be susceptible to fire tomorrow, which is why we're calling on vigilance, common sense and care.

"All areas that are subject to these adverse fire conditions are areas of concern.''

Mr Fitzsimmons described the current fire season as ``one of the most difficult we've seen'', based on early indications.

Bureau of Meteorology forecasting chief Rob Webb said the late-spring heatwave was just the beginning, with unusually high summer heat possible for NSW in January and February.

"Tomorrow, we expect temperatures to rise back to 41C in Sydney, and much of north-eastern NSW will see temperatures towards the mid-40s.

"Ahead of a strong front approaching, we will see wind speeds get up to 40km/h. This will put pressure on fires already started by lightning strikes.''
Boy it's raining so bad here our road looks like a river it's never done this.
sheri
as the season comes to a close i bid all a good holiday season ahead and see you all in 2010 for the hurricane season regards
KOTG

2009 ATLANTIC STORM NAMES

ANA THE FIRST AT 5 AM OF AUG 15
BILL THE SECOND AUG 15 A MAJOR THE EVENING OF 18 C4
CLAUDETTE THE BIG LITTLE SURPRISE TS AUG 16 AT 5AM NE GOM
DANNY T.S. DANNY ON THE MORN OF AUG 26
ERIKA ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN T.S. FORMS SEPT 1
FRED FORMS ON 7 SEPT C3 ON THE 9TH
GRACE TS GRACE MOST NE
HENRI TS NOTHING MORE
IDA TS FORMS NOV4 CAT2 ON NOV 8 ONLY GOM CANE

Unofficial Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six (26W) Advisory Number 1
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...Tropical Depression forms over Chuuk State...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 6.5 degrees north and longitude 148.8 degrees east. This is about 215 miles west-northwest of Chuuk Island.

Twenty-Six is moving toward the northeast at 3 MPH...5 KM/HR. Twenty-Six is expected to curve to the northwest within the next 24 hours and continue in that general motion throughout the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected for the next few days and Twenty-Six could become a tropical storm by Sunday night.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 MB...29.65 inches.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...6.5N 148.8E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.
Fire jumps lines as NSW scorches

A bushfire emergency warning has been issued for residents in three townships in central-west New South Wales.

The blaze has burned out more than 1,200 hectares of bush and is heading towards Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla.

Nearly 170 firefighters are working on the blaze with the support of six helicopters and four planes.

An emergency warning has also been issued for residents along Kangaroobie road at Orange, due to a grass fire.

Stuart O'Keefe of the Rural Fire Service says there is now a real threat to properties in the Rylstone/Kandos area and residents need to activate their survival plans.

The RFS says about 1,000 firefighters are battling more than 100 blazes across the state as temperatures head towards the 40-degree mark.

But the Rylstone and Kandos blazes remain the biggest concern, after a fire threatening rural properties at Gunnedah in the state's north was brought under control.

Current conditions suggest the fire could take two to three hours to reach Rylstone and Kandos.

"The fire weather that we're experiencing now puts us into a defensive mode, so we're setting up to protect individual properties and relocate to deal with any threat at that particular time," he said.

He says the RFS is expecting erratic fire behaviour this afternoon.

"High temperatures, low humidity and strong winds - what we've been saying for the last 24 hours, the potential for the fire to breach the containment lines, has happened.

"Conditions out there are very difficult for all our firefighters at the moment."

The Cudgewong road has been closed due to this fire.

Earlier, the Rylstone Hospital was evacuated as a precaution.

The ambulance service says it has moved nearly all of the 19 patients to Gulgong, Mudgee and Bathurst hospitals.

The weather bureau has issued a severe weather warning for locally damaging winds in the Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and South-West Slopes and Plains.

Craig Ronan, Central West controller for the SES, says the windy conditions are having an effect on bushfires, but are also bringing down trees and damaging homes in the Bathurst and Lithgow areas.

He is expecting severe winds to have an impact when they hit this afternoon, and says anyone affected should call the SES on 132 500.

John Parnaby, incident controller at the Cudgegong fire control centre near Kandos and Rylstone, says the forecast is for winds of 45-65 kilometres an hour, and firefighters are reporting winds of around 35 kilometres an hour currently.

Mr Parnaby says people in the Kandos/Rylstone area should consider going away for the day.

"If people's properties are not prepared for the attack of fire or ember and people are not psychologically ready or physically capable to go through a situation where fire may impact upon their property, they really should be leaving to find a safer place essentially," he said.

"Now would be the right time to go to a neighbouring town - Lithgow, Mudgee, something like that. At this point in time there are no closed roads."

Residents of Glen Davis, south-east of Rylstone and Kandos, are being warned about a fire that has the potential to spot over the Mount Iris escarpment into the town.

Kandos resident Bonnie Farrell says the strong winds are causing fear in the community.

"People are scared and I think the horrific winds at the moment make people even more on edge," she said.

She has the car packed and is ready to leave if necessary.

"The most important things are us and our pets - material things can be replaced over time ... that's why we've made the decision," she said.

"I've been a bush girl all my life ... this is the first time I've felt threatened as an adult, where I'm the one who had to make the decisions."

Rylstone shire farmer David Lee says he has decided to stay to protect his animals.

"I've got a few fields that have nothing on them, nothing to burn," he said.

"I'm confident enough to defend. If I have to I've got dams, I'll get a piece of poly pipe and off I'll go."

He says he can see more smoke coming from the east.

"I can see Newcastle, the Wollemi [National Park], the smoke's getting more and more. It's coming and hopefully that won't catch up with the fire in the Glen Davis [area] because that means the whole of Wollemi and Gardens of Stone [National Park], it'll go."

Meanwhile, firefighters have gained the upper hand on a blaze that threatened properties on the outskirts of Gunnedah.

An emergency warning was issued for people on Stock Road on the outskirts of Gunnedah. But the Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons says crews have the blaze under control.

"They're just mopping it up so we're confident it will be okay," he said.

Mr Fitzsimmons says conditions across the state are expected to deteriorate later today.

"Come the early afternoon, mid-afternoon period is generally where temperatures are at their hottest the humidity's at its lowest," he said.

- ABC
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in Australia

Walgett Airport, NSW, 41.5°C (106.7°F)
My place in Sydney, 40.6°C(105.1°F).

Weather tomorrow will be 21°C(69°F)

Sure hope the lower temps help the firefighters to control the fires. What an enormous temperature difference.
540. beell
Quoting beell:
There is some humor in the hacks. A bit from the documents titled "Fisher.txt"

I will send you the time series you need in a minute for the Central
west Greenland Stack...
And some other bits and pieces,,, The NGRIP record has the trend in it
that is no doubt closer to the truth for the fixed elevation temperature
history. But even there one could need a correction for elevation
change. The elevation corrected south GRIP Holocene has a very strong
negative delta trend in it and I expect there should be some correction
done to the north GRIP record too,, eventually I think they should all
come out looking like our records from Northern Canada. Now at least
ice core records have some low frequencies to correct... not like your
bloody trees that can not remember one century to the next,,,
(alderheimers )


well, i thought it was funny...
Quoting beell:


well, i thought it was funny...

Actually, it is a clever play on words.

CatastropheAdjuster -- Careful there w/the flooded roads.

General comment -- there have been some particularly nasty trolls in and out the last couple days; I'm thinking some folks might be staying away for a bit.

Also, I haven't seen an update on Floodman for awhile. Hope he's still recovering nicely. I've already checked Mrs. Flood's blog
(LongStrangeTrip).

This Saturday Night Live is stupid so far.

Good night, all.
Quoting beell:


well, i thought it was funny...

Hehehe.

I wasn't here, beell, but I know your pain...
543. beell
bout damn time you chimed in, atmo
LOL
Homes under threat as fire breaks lines

A FIRE burning west of the central west townships of Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla has broken containment lines, putting some properties under threat.

An emergency warning has been declared for the central western townships after containment lines were breached at 1pm (AEDT) today.

The fire, which has burnt through 1260 hectares of bushland west of the townships, is now bearing down on some rural properties.

"The fire started on the northern side of Windamere Dam and has crossed the dam," the Rural Fire Service (RFS) said.

"The fire is threatening rural properties between Lake Windamere and the towns of Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla."

"The fire is currently impacting properties along Pinnacle Road and White Rocks Road, to the west of Rylstone, where fire fighting crews are providing property protection."

RFS spokesman Anthony Clark said the fire would remain a threat well into this afternoon because of scorching temperatures and gusty 70km winds.
Residents have been told to follow their Bush Fire Survival Plan and if they have any doubts about their ability to protect their property, to leave early.
El Nino Picking Up Steam
11.12.09




Satellite image showing El Nino pumping up This image was created with data collected by the U.S./European satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. Image credit: NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team

El Nino is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Nino condition.

This image was created with data collected by the U.S./European satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).

"In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Nino is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack," said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.

For more information on NASA's ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
Dr Masters:
All due respect but,
1. CO2 is green is a waste product of animal life as well as combustion both part of nature.

2. CO2 do support plant life. High ammounts of CO2 wold be like us having an athmosphere of aviation quality oxygen but for plants. therefore if there are high ammounts of CO2 this would be beneficial for plant life and of course if beneficial for them then it would be beneficial for us as well.

3. I truly believe there are fluctuations in the climate. We have periods of warm weather and periods of cold weather. I do not agree it is caused by humans, I believe it is caused by nature itself. That we are contributing to the carbon input yes about 1 percent of the total input the rest is caused by nature. The sun is also a big factor in warming and cooling trends in this planet. The sun has been quiet for quite some time and we have been noticing cooling in the planet. This cooling will surely change eventually once the sun becomes more ative in regards to sun spots. Now I do respect your opinion, but do not subscribe to it, and I felt like I had to give an opposing view so members here look for themselves and find out if all this human made global warmin is a hoax created to make some rich.
AIRS Image Shows Global Carbon Dioxide Transport



This image was created with data acquired by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite during July 2009. The image shows large-scale patterns of carbon dioxide concentrations that are transported around Earth by the general circulation of the atmosphere. Dark blue corresponds to a concentration of 382 parts per million and dark red corresponds to a concentration of almost 390 parts per million.

The northern hemisphere mid-latitude jet stream effectively sets the northern limit of enhanced carbon dioxide. A belt of enhanced carbon dioxide girdles the globe in the southern hemisphere, following the zonal flow of the southern hemisphere mid-latitude jet stream. This belt of carbon dioxide is fed by biogenesis activity in South America (carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere through the respiration and decomposition of vegetation), forest fires in both South America and Central Africa, and clusters of gasification plants in South Africa and power generation plants in south eastern Australia.

The AIRS instrument flies on NASA's Aqua satellite and is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, under contract to NASA. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.


Guam and Saipan better watch out.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-220700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM NEAR 6N148E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR GUAM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE. TROPICAL DISTURBANCES CAN INTENSIFY QUICKLY THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
Dang.. that was a quick season. August - November then straight back into Post-season global warming debates and political squabbles.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion November 22 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 PM, Tropical Disturbance 05R (1006 hPa) located at 9.1S 56.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-northeast at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 08.8S 55.0E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 08.9S 53.7E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 09.5S 51.3E - 45 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 10.1S 49.4E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Quikscat Date of the last night shows clearly an improving low level circulation center due to the development of deep convection over the center during the night, but pression remains high as environmental pression remains high to. The system is expected to develop progressively due to a favorable environment, good low level inflow, over warm sea surface temperature, and good upper level outflow. It is expected to track globally westwards.
oops 6:00 AM not PM =P
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "28"
15:00 PM JST November 22 2009
===========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 7.1N 147.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 7.7N 148.0E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST November 22 2009
=====================================

A tropical low [1008hPa] lies near 08S 100E but is not expected to develop further.

A low is expected to form near the west Kimberley coast late on Monday or on Tuesday but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low
Tuesday: Very Low

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:




is that the southern indian ocean storm? So it has its eye on mainland africa it seems...
AXIO20 FIMP 220600
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS.
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 22.11.09 @ 0600 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 02
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2. B LATITUDE : 9.2 DEGREES SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 56.1 DEGREES EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : FAIR
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.0/ 2.0 PLUS D 0.5 /12 HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 12KT.
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.
T.O.O. : 22/11/09 @ 0600 UTC=

02 from Mauritius... looks like they sort of fixed the problem when they had ANJA numbered as 01 and 02
winters

that island you see is Madagascar in the lower left


JTWC should have a TCFA soon 30kts (1 min)


Pretty swirl. A 954mb low dumping yet more rain on places pretty well saturated already (one town got 12 1/2 inches of rain in 24 hours on Thursday.)
ya pretty nice, does the low come with a nice name as well =p
Ludwig, huh?
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (1000z 22NOV)
=================================================

An area of convection (93W) located at 8.2N 128.2E or 380 NM west of Palau. Animated mutlispectral satellite imagery shows continued consolidation of deep convection near a well defined low level circulation center and a 0500z AMSRE Aqua microwave image shows multiple convective bands coverging into the system center. The 0035z ASCAT Pass also reveals a symmetric low level circulation center with 20 knot winds. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of minimal vertical wind shear and has divergent flow aloft. An upstream mid latitude trough is also starting to provide outflow. A circle was used for the tropical cyclone formation alert area to convey near-term track of uncertainity due to the system being in a dual steering environment

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB

No records set despite sweltering heat

AS expected, Sydney sweltered through a scorching Sunday with the mercury soaring into the 40's but failing to smash the all-time November record.

In the CBD today, the temperature reached 40.4 degrees, just shy of the 1982 November record of 41.8.

Further west at Sydney airport, the mercury shot up to 42.5 degrees, almost nudging the 1982 record for that area of 43.4, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said.

"There were near-record temperatures right throughout Sydney today, which reached up to 40 degrees, so there was no escape from the heat for anyone," BoM forecaster Michael Logan said.

The movies, the beach ... and icecream anywhere ... were the preferred ways to beat the heat.
Around 25,000 people flocked to Bondi beach yet , lifeguards said they didn't have to log many rescues.


"We performed more rescues on Monday than we did today," one lifeguard told AAP.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Anna Kennedy was one of many people who went to George Street cinema in Sydney city for respite.

"I should be used to it coming from Brisbane, but it is really hot," she said.

Paramedics were kept busy around midday as the mercury climbed steeply, attending four heat exposure cases in the three hours between 12pm (AEDT) and 3pm.

One case was at Taronga Zoo; the others were spread across Sydney from Windsor in the far west to the northern beaches suburb of Dee Why.

Other cases that paramedics attended across Sydney may have been heat-related but it was impossible to say how many, an ambulance spokeswoman said.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (1000z 22NOV)
=================================================

An area of convection (93W) located at 8.2N 128.2E or 380 NM west of Palau. Animated mutlispectral satellite imagery shows continued consolidation of deep convection near a well defined low level circulation center and a 0500z AMSRE Aqua microwave image shows multiple convective bands coverging into the system center. The 0035z ASCAT Pass also reveals a symmetric low level circulation center with 20 knot winds. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of minimal vertical wind shear and has divergent flow aloft. An upstream mid latitude trough is also starting to provide outflow. A circle was used for the tropical cyclone formation alert area to convey near-term track of uncertainity due to the system being in a dual steering environment

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB



565. IKE
New Orleans discussion....

"FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD FINALLY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCH THE FREEZING POINT FRI AND SAT MORNINGS(BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SAT MORNING).
THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THAT COLDER AIR
MASS FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THU NIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG CAA REGIME AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS DROP NICELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOW DUE TO CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH BEING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE STRONG CAA...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WOULDN`T PROMOTE TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BUT WITH A PURELY CAA SCENARIO SETTING UP WE COULD
OVERACHIEVE AND SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. DUE TO THAT I HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 DEGREES BELOW MEX FRI MORNING BUT KEEPS EVERYONE
ABV FREEZING STILL. NOW ON FRI NIGHT THINGS WILL BE A TAD DIFFERENT.
FIRST OFF HIGHS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE OF A HEAD START AS WE
HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. SECOND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION THUS PROVIDING CALM WINDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. IF ALL
OF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MDLS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THEN IT SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
SINCE THIS IS ACTUALLY DAY 6 THE MEX LOOKS LIKE IT IS HIGHLY
UNDERESTIMATING AND TRYING TO GO CLOSER TO CLIMO. DUE TO THAT AND
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND THE GFES I HAVE
GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUI AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE NEARLY
ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE ANYONE AT FREEZING YET BUT IF THE
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP
TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. DURING THE DAY SAT THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD START TO MODERATE OUR AIRMASS. /CAB"

566. IKE
210 hours, 4 minutes left...
and it's officially over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Knowing well the adage "Denial ain't just some river in Egypt", I tend to observe rather than deny things that escape my preferences.

It would not be my nature to deny the reality of a satellite image of today's sea ice compared to those of past years. I tend to believe what I see, not what I hear.

The same applies to the hacked emails. Time will tell. Along with many, I will see what becomes of it.

I do not view Dr Masters nor Dr Rood as elitist snobs. However, I would beg patience from them as some of us try to digest what appears to be a slap in the face to the Science Community. Talk to me like I'm 3 years old. Bring me out of this rabbit hole.

One of the dangers of being an elitist snob is that you think you know everything.
Many will think that because the emails were hacked that they have no legal consequence. If you believe that, then here's yer rope.
There is a principle of Law that escapes most.

"The Long Arm of the Law"
Though indeed hacking is illegal, the hackers were not operating within the Long Arm of the Law. They were independent of any Law Enforcement Authority and therefore a "Warrantless Search" strategy may fall on deaf ears.
In other words: If a burglar broke into a murder's home and stole a gun that ballistics later proved was indeed a murder weapon, then the murderer is in deep poo poo. The burglar was not operating within the Long Arm of the Law and therefore Search and Seizure guidelines would not apply.

Already some of our esteemed pundits for AGW are quick to shoot the messenger in an attempt to wash their face and hands. Though most are simply trying to wash their face as they were only plowing the mule they were handed. If I were them, I think I would sit down and shut up. I would concentrate on the deminishing thickness of sea ice instead of the increasing thickness of my skull. I would start thinking out of the box. The box that now seems sullied by the Fruits of the Poisoned Tree.
Good Morning Ike, How cold for your area next week. Oh also send some rain to w cen fl please.
569. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning Ike, How cold for your area next week. Oh also send some rain to w cen fl please.


Thursday and Friday nights....Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 39.

It may be even colder then that.
Here ya go Severestorm. Good morning Ike.

571. P451
A little SW Caribbean flareup with GFS support. Much ado about nothing I'd say.



572. P451
X'Ida'Easter still churning away. (left side of image)

573. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
Here ya go Severestorm. Good morning Ike.



Good morning.

Floodman still recouping in the hospital?
Quoting IKE:


Good morning.

Floodman still recouping in the hospital?


I don't know. I think so but haven't seen anything new in LST's blog.
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still churning away. (left side of image)



From everything I have seen, our next "big nor'easter" is not gonna amount to all that much. Our locals are calling for some rain and a little breezy for Monday and Tuesday and that is about it. You see anything different?
576. P451
The developing Nor'Easter.





Model support showing a transition of energy to a developing low off of the SE coast. Typical setup. (Ida, Inland - gave birth to the Nor'Easter off the SC coast which became the dominant low)

577. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


I don't know. I think so but haven't seen anything new in LST's blog.


I looked for her blog and it's dropped off the blog page...no posts in awhile.


Quoting SQUAWK:


From everything I have seen, our next "big nor'easter" is not gonna amount to all that much. Our locals are calling for some rain and a little breezy for Monday and Tuesday and that is about it. You see anything different?


You didn't ask me, but I don't see anything different. It was overhyped by a few on here(and no, P451, I'm not talking about you).

Look beyond this low and look to the one next weekend. It may be a more significant system.
Quoting IKE:


Good morning.

Floodman still recouping in the hospital?
refer to post 449 from LST...Flood is home Nov.21
579. P451
Quoting SQUAWK:


From everything I have seen, our next "big nor'easter" is not gonna amount to all that much. Our locals are calling for some rain and a little breezy for Monday and Tuesday and that is about it. You see anything different?


No me neither. They seem to have scaled back interest quite a bit. Might not even amount to Nor'Easter (Gale) status. Might just be a coastal low.

NY, NY

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF COAST STATES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.


...another system (frontal) moves through Thursday and develops a low that moves out to sea. Friday into Saturday they're calling for cold and a chance of snow showers especially north and west.

We'll be falling off the cliff come Friday temperature wise. Winter moving in.
580. IKE
Quoting peejodo:
refer to post 449 from LST...Flood is home Nov.21


Glad to hear it...thanks.
581. IKE
I agree, that winter is fixing to affect the eastern USA by turkey day and Friday. Warm up by next Sunday and Monday and a possible colder blast next week.
582. P451
Quoting Cotillion:


Pretty swirl. A 954mb low dumping yet more rain on places pretty well saturated already (one town got 12 1/2 inches of rain in 24 hours on Thursday.)


That is wild looking. MODIS:

YIPPPEEEEEEEE...... the cold change has arrived.... good bye 42C(107.6F)..... hello 22C(71F). yes yes yes... YIPPPPEEEEEEE
It's wonderful that human civilization derives so many benefits from the CO2 generated by buring fossil fuels. It's just too darn bad that the supply of fossil fuels is ultimately finite. It's also too bad that human civilization has already consumed nearly all of the low-hanging fruit and that, from here on, extracting the remainder will become increasingly costly from an energy input standpoint. Eventually, and soon, the caloric input required for extraction will exceed the calories extracted. Approaching that point, jobs - and a whole lot more - will be lost anyway. Since this is inevitable, why not start now developing and deploying the technologies or changing over?

Oh, right. Because we'll lose all those benefits from the added CO2.
Good morning! It's 65 here with some rain falling in Melrose, FL. I've got 3 sleeping dogs around me (Gabby is overweight and she snores) Good weather for coffee, newspaper, and blogging. Rain is good but we will have none of the noreaster's or tornadoes here :)
Accuweather says my area will have highs at or slightly above freezing every day after December 2 to December 6.
Quoting AussieStorm:
YIPPPEEEEEEEE...... the cold change has arrived.... good bye 42C(107.6F)..... hello 22C(71F). yes yes yes... YIPPPPEEEEEEE


Got a little warm down there eh? Looked at some temp charts for Sydney and they sure seemed to spike yeaterday.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Got a little warm down there eh? Looked at some temp charts for Sydney and they sure seemed to spike yeaterday.

I thought someone forgot to turn the oven down it got that hot here. my bowl of ice-cream melted in 2 mins, i sat it down to get a drink, when i got back it had turned into a milk shake.

Sydney wind doppler Radar
beautiful weather here in e cen florida its ashame that it might be under water in 20 yrs
Quoting sxwarren:
It's wonderful that human civilization derives so many benefits from the CO2 generated by buring fossil fuels. It's just too darn bad that the supply of fossil fuels is ultimately finite. It's also too bad that human civilization has already consumed nearly all of the low-hanging fruit and that, from here on, extracting the remainder will become increasingly costly from an energy input standpoint. Eventually, and soon, the caloric input required for extraction will exceed the calories extracted. Approaching that point, jobs - and a whole lot more - will be lost anyway. Since this is inevitable, why not start now developing and deploying the technologies or changing over?

Oh, right. Because we'll lose all those benefits from the added CO2.


Well stated.

Cap and Trade is an aristocracy based ploy to steal from those less fortunate so that the aristocracy can line their pockets with more money.

How is that possible.

Take a look.

We have land preservation and habitat protection and what happens when someone wants to build a high rise building on that spot? Easy, the law allows for swapping of credits from another less valuable piece of property elsewhere.

Here in Florida, for example, there is a species of tree snail called Liggus and it is protected by federal law. You cannot remove it from a tree - dead or alive -, or pick it up 'dead' from the ground. This applies to both private and public land. Nice idea, right?

Well, if you own the property and want to build a home, guess what. Send in the bulldozer and crush those trees and the resident tree snails all you want because its okay. Want to have someone come in and remove those snails before destroying the trees? No can do, federal law prohibits the removal...period...end of story.

Same thing is slated to happen with Cap and Trade. Reduce your emissions to below that required by law and you will earn a credit that you can 'SELL'. Sell to who? To someone who does not reduce their emissions, that's who.

Instead of demanding that the emissions be reduced across the board, you can buy your way out of the responsibility by purchasing the credits that the other company has stashed away for just this occasion. Of course the is a broker fee involved.

Were you aware that the main spokesman for AGW, Al Gore, is hip deep in bed with a company that brokers just such hypocrisy?

Do we need to conserve?

Yes, indeed.

Should the Al Gores of the world get rich as the process moves forward??

Absolutely not!!
so is the cold next week going to be primarily on the East coast or are we supposed to get some colder weather in the South Central region as well?

EDIT: the reason i ask is that the 10-day forecasts aren't really showing anything unusual in the way of temperatures.
Quoting leftovers:
beautiful weather here in e cen florida its ashame that it might be under water in 20 yrs


Based in satellite information, my house is at 22 feet above sea level.

I am designing the west side of my property for the day it becomes beachfront. Goodness gracious its going to be great.

Imagine...GOM beachfront property in South Florida. Life is grand.

And it's all happening in less than twenty years!! Yahoo!!!

Not!!!

The only thing that will be happening in twenty years is that Al Gore and his AGW followers will be sitting around with egg on their faces. Unfortunately, they will be rich beyond their dreams from the fraud they perpetrated on the rest of the world.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
so is the cold next week going to be primarily on the East coast or are we supposed to get some colder weather in the South Central region as well?





593. ahhhh, thanks, Drak...that's what i figured. that's why the forecasts are essentially saying "more of the same next week". LOL
595. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
so is the cold next week going to be primarily on the East coast or are we supposed to get some colder weather in the South Central region as well?


Both, but more so for the eastern USA.
VIVE LA DIFFERENCE, Aussie!!
Quoting pearlandaggie:
so is the cold next week going to be primarily on the East coast or are we supposed to get some colder weather in the South Central region as well?

EDIT: the reason i ask is that the 10-day forecasts aren't really showing anything unusual in the way of temperatures.


Quoting AussieStorm:

I thought someone forgot to turn the oven down it got that hot here. my bowl of ice-cream melted in 2 mins, i sat it down to get a drink, when i got back it had turned into a milk shake.

Sydney wind doppler Radar


That is one really cool RADAR you got there Aussie! Man, I really like that!
Quoting pottery:
VIVE LA DIFFERENCE, Aussie!!


22/11/09 03:00pm 39.8C(103.6F)
23/11/09 12:00am 30.6C(87.1F)
23/11/09 12:30am 29.9C(85.8F)
23/11/09 01:00am 22.9C(73.2F)
23/11/09 01:30am 21.5C(70.7F)
Drak, Ike, Squawk...LMAO. it's like flipping between the channels during the weather segment. the forecast depends on who you're watching! :)

i could be wrong, but i'm starting to believe that you guys really are meteorologists! LOL

thanks for all the help :)
Quoting SQUAWK:


That is one really cool RADAR you got there Aussie! Man, I really like that!

Yeah it brand new. only been online like 6 weeks.
599, Aussie,
That would give my body's thermostat a real challenge.....
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Drak, Ike, Squawk...LMAO. it's like flipping between the channels during the weather segment. the forecast depends on who you're watching! :)

i could be wrong, but i'm starting to believe that you guys really are meteorologists! LOL

thanks for all the help :)


Not a chance!!! LOL At least not me. I just happened to see that earlier this morning and did not have a senior moment trying to find it again.
602. must be menopause...oh wait! LOL

just kidding with ya, pottery :)

how's that rum coming along?
Quoting pottery:
599, Aussie,
That would give my body's thermostat a real challenge.....

that temp of 22/11/09 03:00pm 39.8C(103.6F) was at Sydney airport. my place got to 41C(106F)
Ya think so, Aggie? Could very well be. But I am well "preserved".
Bottle doing good still.
606. LOL....couldn't resist. i think the word you were looking for is "pickled"! ;)
Quoting AussieStorm:

that temp of 22/11/09 03:00pm 39.8C(103.6F) was at Sydney airport. my place got to 41C(106F)


Aussie, Here is a picture of the Simpson Desert. Is it really that red, or just the image. Bet it is hot there.

610. P451


Redoubt might be becoming active again....its puffing some and Rammb has a floater on it too now....I put it up also
Quoting Grothar:


Aussie, Here is a picture of the Simpson Desert. Is it really that red, or just the image. Bet it is hot there.


It's really is that red. and its very hot... Sydney was like a hot desert today... 42C(106F)
Good Sunday morning read. Cool pic.

International Workshop of Experts Dealt with Risks Facing World Heritage Sites

Artdaily.org
JERUSALEM.- Jerusalem, Masada, Caesarea … are they here to stay? The Israel Antiquities Authority and the Israel National Commission for UNESCO (the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization) have warned that the heritage sites in Israel are at risk of destruction in the event of natural disasters and being vandalized by man.

Out of a desire to prepare for possible emergency scenarios and to protect the heritage sites in the country that are among the most important in the world, the Israel Antiquities Authority and the Israel National Commission for UNESCO this week convened a three day international workshop of experts for the purpose of brainstorming and consulting authorities from around the world who cope with risks and natural disasters. Experts arrived in Akko from many different countries such as Italy, Jordan, Japan, China, Peru and Tanzania.

According to Ra’anan Kislev, director of the Israel Antiquities Authority Conservation Department, “Israel is located in a region that is highly susceptible to earthquakes because of its proximity to the Rift Valley – a region of active faults where strong earthquakes have already struck that have left destroyed cities in their wake in Israel and neighboring lands. The last great earthquake struck Israel in 1927. An earthquake of high magnitude can cause severe damage to life and property, including irreversible damage to cultural heritage, especially at sites which are situated just a few kilometers from the Rift Valley. The Old City of Jerusalem, Masada and Bet She’an are amongst these sites”. Kislev also said, “Due to the collapse of the coastal cliff owing to changes in the sea level, many heritage sites along the coast are in real danger of erosion and collapse” (Apollonia, Caesarea, Ashkelon and Atlit).
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's really is that red. and its very hot... Sydney was like a hot desert today... 42C(106F)


You should post some pictures of your country once in awhile. There are some awsome sights. We would enjoy them. Just remember to post the weather along side them. lol
I need to know what the temp ranges are going to be for Southern Florida in the 6-10 day ranges. I know that maps have been posted, but would like some info other than that as to what we are looking at.
616. beell
Some more funny stuff from the hacks. What ever you may think, it is nice to see that in some respects, these folks are not that much different from the rest of us!

A portion of 1206628118.txt

From: Phil Jones
To: trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,"Jonathan Overpeck"
Subject: Re: Fwd: ukweatherworld
Date: Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:28:38 +0000
Cc: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "Susan Solomon"

...I'm away all next week - with Mike. PaleoENSO meeting in Tahiti - you can't
turn those sorts of meetings down!


Cheers
Phil
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I need to know what the temp ranges are going to be for Southern Florida in the 6-10 day ranges. I know that maps have been posted, but would like some info other than that as to what we are looking at.

Not exactly an answer, but might be of interest to you(?)

Can El Niño end a 4-year drought?
WETTER WINTER: While the weather shift appears on track, water chiefs still fret

By Kate Spinner
Published: Friday, November 20, 2009 at 1:00 a.m.

The weather pattern expected to bring lots of rain to Florida this winter is coming a little late, but it is still on its way.

Rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, triggered by warmer seas there, should change Florida's weather within the next two to three weeks, federal forecasters predicted Thursday.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I need to know what the temp ranges are going to be for Southern Florida in the 6-10 day ranges. I know that maps have been posted, but would like some info other than that as to what we are looking at.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

Looks like about 10 degrees below normal. Not swimming weather.
619. jipmg
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I need to know what the temp ranges are going to be for Southern Florida in the 6-10 day ranges. I know that maps have been posted, but would like some info other than that as to what we are looking at.


I wouldn't trust the forecasts from local mets for now.. TWC is saying upper 70s and low 60s at night.. that map says extreemly below average, well thats average for miami this time of year..
plywoodstatenative it looks like we're starting to resemble an El Niño pattern with the increasing subtropical jet stream energy coming from Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. The low in the Gulf for this weekend is a result of one of these shortwaves moving along the subtropical jet.There are also hints that a low or weak wave could form in the southern Gulf in about 7-9 days which is also a sign of an El Niño-like pattertrying to set up. Even in solid El Niño years, it all depends on exactly where the jet stream and storm track sets up. Small changes can affect our weather from warm and dry to cool and wet. In 2006-2007, a moderate El Niño, we ended up with a warm and dry winter for the most part. Going with the long-term trends, it's hard to go against the cooler and wetter scenario, but sometimes it doesn't work out that way.

adrian
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I need to know what the temp ranges are going to be for Southern Florida in the 6-10 day ranges. I know that maps have been posted, but would like some info other than that as to what we are looking at.


Friday morning lower 60s along the southeastern coast. 50s inland:



Saturday morning lower 50s along the southeastern coast 40s inland:



Sunday essentially the same as Saturday, though slightly warmer:


622. beell
Quoting hurricane23:
plywoodstatenative increasing subtropical jet stream energy coming from Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. The low in the Gulf for this weekend is a result of one of these shortwaves moving along the subtropical jet.

adrian


Shortwave came from the N. It did mesh with the subtropical jet over the NW GOM.

But you are correct. Would expect to see disturbances unique to the southern jet this El Nino winter.
Question to everyone, anyone --

Can you still post on your own blog in WU if you are banned?

I really do not think LongStrangeTrip (Mrs. Floodman) did anything to get banned, but just a little concerned because as far as I can tell, there hasn't been a Floodman update for awhile...which led to my question...just can't believe anyone would flag them, in any case.
I gotta disagree on some of the people who think this winter will be mild, yes El Ninos are known to warm things up, but look at the southern tracks. The 1993 Superstorm was in El Nino if you didn't know. I believe a cold, robust winter is in store with possible snows in unknown locations. This is not a wishcast, but looking at the current pattern, I see a very hard winter for the East Coast/Southeast.
Quoting pottery:


Pottery, Things that slow around your place????
Quoting reedzone:
I gotta disagree on some of the people who think this winter will be mild, yes El Ninos are known to warm things up, but look at the southern tracks. The 1993 Superstorm was in El Nino if you didn't know. I believe a cold, robust winter is in store with possible snows in unknown locations. This is not a wishcast, but looking at the current pattern, I see a very hard winter for the East Coast/Southeast.


Hey, Reed! If it snows in unknown locations, who is going to know about it?? JK How ya doing? Long time no talk.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Reed! If it snows in unknown locations, who is going to know about it?? JK How ya doing? Long time no talk.


What I meant to say snows in places where they normally don't see snow lol.. I'm doing alright, just been busy. I don't see how a warm winter is in store, El Nino, so what, it's a phase, a warm area in the Pacific. I don't like it when people use El Nino as an excuse for a prediction.
Those are great temperature graphics Drakoen!


Rain over me does the split:

Quoting reedzone:


What I meant to say snows in places where they normally don't see snow lol.. I'm doing alright, just been busy. I don't see how a warm winter is in store, El Nino, so what, it's a phase, a warm area in the Pacific. I don't like it when people use El Nino as an excuse for a prediction.


I know what you mean, reed! I remember the simpler days when the only concern about El Nino was less anchovies and more sardines for the South American fisherman. Ah! the simple life. Nobody attacked each other back then about the weather. We enjoyed the snow when it came, loved the rain when it came in Spring, enjoyed the changing of the leaves in Autumn. Now people are practically killing each other over GW, El Nino, MJO, STD's, etc.
What is that last abbreviation about Grothar?
635. beell
Patience, patience! Some cloud breaks.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EXTREME SERN GA...
UPPER LOW OVER AL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MS VALLY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM SRN LA EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED WITHIN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM SERN LA INTO FAR NRN FL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING N-S
IN THE NERN GULF...WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA. AT MID MORNING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NW OF PIE. WHILE MODERATE
INSTABILITY PERSISTED OVER THE NERN GULF WATERS...INSTABILITY WAS
WEAK OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STORMS TO BACKBUILD AND
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THICKER CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO RESTRICT
WARMING/INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL
. HOWEVER...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFTING
NWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED.

..IMY/SMITH.. 11/22/2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Those are great temperature graphics Drakoen!


Rain over me does the split:



Where is the rain for South Florida! It is getting so bad I have to give my geckos water with an eye dropper. I can't even remember when it rained last. Never remember this!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What is that last abbreviation about Grothar?


Sub - Tropical Depression. Trying to get me banned. LOL Wanted to see if anyone was paying attention, you little lurker you!!!
I'm 6'7" / 258. I'm a big lurker!
Quoting Grothar:


Where is the rain for South Florida! It is getting so bad I have to give my geckos water with an eye dropper. I can't even remember when it rained last. Never remember this!


Down here, we got a big .01 just yesterday. (The grass is already turning brown, sigh.)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm 6'7" / 258. I'm a big lurker!


YO! I better be nice to you. I learned a long time ago to be nice to guys bigger than I.
Quoting miajrz:


Down here, we got a big .01 just yesterday. (The grass is already turning brown, sigh.)


Care to share?
Not to worry. Rich does 95% of the blogging under our handle and he is 9 1/2" shorter and 103 lbs lighter. Pipsqueak ;)

It is cloudy and dead calm. The barometer has fallen 4 mb since breakfast. We've had 0.03" of rain. I don't think we'll get much more rain, if any. On the island, this storm system has been a bust.
Yea! An update from Mrs. Flood (LongStrangeTrip) re the FrankenFlood Chronicles. I hope no one will mind (esp. Admin!), I'm posting on the main blog because various WU members inquire from time to time. Messages can be left on LST's blog site.

29. LongStrangeTrip 6:51 PM GMT on November 22, 2009
Afternoon, all. It has taken us a full 24 hours, but we're gradually working our way into a comfortable routine. Ron is able to do just about everything for himself, and is getting around pretty well. Unfortunately, pain management is not quite where it should be. He'll address that with the surgeon tomorrow.

I'm reading all of your comments to him and he's eager to get back into the blog. We just have to rig him up with his laptop and he'll be good to go. I'm hoping we'll be able to do that later this afternoon, after a good, home-cooked Sunday dinner.

Onward, through the fog! :-)

644. beell
Last one of these alleged e-mail hacks I'll post here. But if you only read one, this would be the one. Legitimate skeptic's issues are raised regarding climate reconstruction, the peer review process, the hocky stick, sea level rise, Copenhagen, and more. A quick way to get familiar with the remaining issues (imo). Value judgement left to the reader.

An e-mail thread of course. Reads from the bottom up.
1170724434.txt
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Yea! An update from Mrs. Flood (LongStrangeTrip) re the FrankenFlood Chronicles. I hope no one will mind (esp. Admin!), I'm posting on the main blog because various WU members inquire from time to time. Messages can be left on LST's blog site.

29. LongStrangeTrip 6:51 PM GMT on November 22, 2009
Afternoon, all. It has taken us a full 24 hours, but we're gradually working our way into a comfortable routine. Ron is able to do just about everything for himself, and is getting around pretty well. Unfortunately, pain management is not quite where it should be. He'll address that with the surgeon tomorrow.

I'm reading all of your comments to him and he's eager to get back into the blog. We just have to rig him up with his laptop and he'll be good to go. I'm hoping we'll be able to do that later this afternoon, after a good, home-cooked Sunday dinner.

Onward, through the fog! :-)



Thanks Awake. Some of us were wondering.
Suddenly it is sunny and the wind is blowing lightly out of the SSE. Warm front!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Not to worry. Rich does 95% of the blogging under our handle and he is 9 1/2" shorter and 103 lbs lighter. Pipsqueak ;)

It is cloudy and dead calm. The barometer has fallen 4 mb since breakfast. We've had 0.03" of rain. I don't think we'll get much more rain, if any. On the island, this storm system has been a bust.


Who is the better speller?
better speller? With firefox spell correction does it matter? ;)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Suddenly it is sunny and the wind is blowing lightly out of the SSE. Warm front!


Our long range forecast for South Florida is little or no rain through December. Not good. We had hardly anything in October and nothing in November.
potentially big snow event for the northeast on the 28th-29th.
Quoting Grothar:


Care to share?


Actually, I was thinking that our best strategy may be to hope the Fri/Sat am lows get cold enough that we see our exhalations and then pray they condense. :)
We had a wet spring and summer, ending with over 3" of rain during the first 2 days of September. Since then it has been dry, with storm systems just not producing much rain. Ida brought us less than half an inch. We had a very brief shower at lunchtime. I hope we get some decent rains this winter with the El Nino. We'll see.
Quoting miajrz:


Actually, I was thinking that our best strategy may be to hope the Fri/Sat am lows get cold enough that we see our exhalations and then pray they condense. :)


Now that is desperation! Think I'll try it on the orchids. LOL
hi ya'll.

SSI- here's an update, from SPC, don't hold you're breath on getting any rain today. Looking real doubtful for me, too. :(

A TENDENCY TOWARD WEAKENING/VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY... AND A SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY INHIBIT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE NORTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND STILL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF A TAMPA/DAYTONA BEACH LINE.
655. xcool
GFS says snow on December 7
aquak I agree--this storm system has been a bust for us!
Quoting xcool:
GFS says snow on December 7


Can you narrow it down a little. At least tell us which continent.
658. xcool
Grothar some where on gulf cost .
659. xcool


660. xcool
if i`m wrong sorry
Quoting xcool:
Grothar some where on gulf cost .


Thanks xcool. They certainly narrows it down.

Where are all your images you post. Nothing of interest going on.
The NCEP is running the GFSP which will replace the GFS in mid december:

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade
Changes include:
-New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI
-Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS
-Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved
-Additional parameters added to products available on FTP servers

GFSP model
Quoting xcool:
if i`m wrong sorry


Hey xcool, here is an image of the snow in Florida in 1977. It can happen.

Quoting Drakoen:
The NCEP is running the GFSP which will replace the GFS in mid december:

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade
Changes include:
-New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI
-Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS
-Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved
-Additional parameters added to products available on FTP servers

GFSP model
interesting been watching these new runs to see how they handle and perform hopefully a more reliable model for frorecasters
Quoting Drakoen:
The NCEP is running the GFSP which will replace the GFS in mid december:

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade
Changes include:
-New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI
-Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS
-Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved
-Additional parameters added to products available on FTP servers

GFSP model


That new model shows a Superstorm on the East Coast in 384 hours..
666. xcool
Grothar welcome.





Snow on Canal Street, 1963
Quoting reedzone:


That new model shows a Superstorm on the East Coast in 384 hours..


Which is insignificant at this time.
668. xcool
We are about to get some good thunderstorms here north of Orlando. Already near Ocala 2 inches of rain. There also, has been some severe thunderstorm warnings for Lake and Marion counties. In Apopka is starting to get black outside.
If it shows a superstorm in 84 hours, I'll take notice ;)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
If it shows a superstorm in 84 hours, I'll take notice ;)


Agree.
Quoting Drakoen:


Which is insignificant at this time.


Yeah, I thought it would be funny to mention it lol
Quoting reedzone:


That new model shows a Superstorm on the East Coast in 384 hours..
i only pay attention till 144 hr mark after that its a shot in the dark but maybe this new model will be better we watch wait see like always
wow, I was just making a statement of what it showed, I certainly don't believe it till about less then 100 hours.
675. xcool
Quoting aquak9:
hi ya'll.

SSI- here's an update, from SPC, don't hold you're breath on getting any rain today. Looking real doubtful for me, too. :(

A TENDENCY TOWARD WEAKENING/VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY... AND A SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY INHIBIT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE NORTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND STILL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF A TAMPA/DAYTONA BEACH LINE.


There seems to be no weakening infact it looks as if a heavy rain threat is setting up in Central Florida. It looks as if this may continue throughout the night considering the reformation of thunderstorms in the eastern GOM.
aquak and I don't deny the storms over central Florida, we just don't think any rain from them is heading to Jax and south coastal GA.
Ooooooo I found a GFS 25,000 hour run ;) Link
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ooooooo I found a GFS 25,000 hour run ;) Link



Damn, a 25,000 hour run? hmmm...accuracy on that is less tha oh, say, 1%, huh?
I hope so! :)
Quoting Floodman:



Damn, a 25,000 hour run? hmmm...accuracy on that is less tha oh, say, 1%, huh?
FloodMan, how do you feel? Glad to see you posting so soon. C,MON, You know that 25,000 hour run is spot on...jk :)
OH MY...I just found this article completely by accident...wasn't even searching CO2 -- "There Are No Accidents"(?)
Disclaimer: I know zero about this website.

Link
Acid oceans make fish %u201Cfatally attracted%u201D to their predators
By ANI
November 22nd, 2009

LONDON - In a new research, scientists have found that ocean acidification can cause fish to become %u201Cfatally attracted%u201D to their predators.

Danielle Dixson, from James Cook University in Queensland, who led the study, claims fish are unable to %u201Csmell danger%u201D because of the dissolved CO2.

She and her colleagues tested orange clown fish larvae that were raised in water with the same slightly alkaline pH as their ocean reef habitat, and those raised in more acidic water.

A %u201Cflow chamber%u201D with two water sources flowing in parallel was built for the project.

One source was taken from tanks containing the clown fishes%u2019 natural predators and one was drawn from tanks in which non-predatory fish were swimming.

%u201CThe flow rates are identical, so the water won%u2019t mix. This allows the fish in the chamber to choose which water cue they prefer or dislike,%u201D The BBC News quoted Dixson as saying.

The researchers made sure that the fish reared in normal water was kept away from the stream of water that their predators were placed in.

It was noted that they detected the odour of a predator and swam away from it.

However, fish raised in more acidic water were strongly attracted to both the predatory and the non-predatory flumes.

The scientists asserted that the fish larvae %u201Cmight exhibit a fatal attraction to predators at CO2 and pH levels that could occur in our oceans by 2100 on a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions%u201D.

Dixson concluded: %u201COcean acidification has the potential to become a widespread problem and it%u2019s unknown how many organisms and ecosystems will cope with the decrease [in] pH.

%u201CThis study shows that ocean acidification could lead to an increase in the mortality of larvae.%u201D

The study was published in the journal Ecology Letters. (ANI)

Question for the Technies: Why do quote marks always come out kaflooey???
Quoting Floodman:



Damn, a 25,000 hour run? hmmm...accuracy on that is less tha oh, say, 1%, huh?


Flood!!!!!!!
Afternoon, all! I was going to give Flood a big introduction, but he just couldn't stand it any longer!

To see the new and improved Floodman, go here:

Floodman's Recovery Room
So how are you folks today? I understand that there has been some questiin as to how I'm doing and let me just say that aside from feeling like I was taken apart and put back together somewhat wrong, I'm fine...I'm weak and don't get around well without a walker and I need to use a backbrace to sit up for any length of time but other than that I am remarkably well. Theres a great deal to the theory that you need to get out of bed immediatley and trying to walk and sit, etc. Helps with the confidence as well.

I want to thank everyone that was thinking about me and asking after me (my understanding from Trip is that it was nearly everyone; it does a man good to know that he is well thought of and has friends

I'll be back on later (I'm a little worn out right now) and I will also jump on Trips blog. I'm hoping to be back to a more normal schedule by the end of this week, so I'll see a great many of you folks then

Thanks again for all your concern; I am truly touched and I really do appreciate you!
How long has this Floodman troll been lurkin'?
He's Ba-ack!

Grothar, re that 1977 pic you posted -- that was my hairstyle, my man. Modified "fro." I was SO cool (NOT).
687. xcool
Floodman i hope you feeling better !
hydrus, Grothar, Awake, xcool and drak...glad to see you and to be here to be seen!

I'll be back in a few hours...a few more meds and decent rest and I'll be back!
I hope Flood realizes that...that is the longest sentence xcool has ever written, and that he indeed remains "touched." :) I know I am!
Quoting Jeff9641:


There seems to be no weakening infact it looks as if a heavy rain threat is setting up in Central Florida. It looks as if this may continue throughout the night considering the reformation of thunderstorms in the eastern GOM.


Jeff, I was being extremely self-centered and geo-centric. I meant for MY area, that does NOT include central florida.

Central Florida may be on the recieving end and a more potent setup. Nothing to get oo worried about, tho.

Geeeesh.
691. xcool
Floodman :)
Quoting aquak9:


Jeff, I was being extremely self-centered and geo-centric. I meant for MY area, that does NOT include central florida.

Central Florida may be on the recieving end and a more potent setup. Nothing to get oo worried about, tho.

Geeeesh.

40 Lashes With a Wet Noodle! :)

Really, hope you all get some rain, Aqua. Orca really needs to send you some overnight express.
Gonna go start dinner...first good homecooked meal for Flood in awhile. We'll be back later on to catch up with everyone.

Big hugs and many thanks!

:)
Quoting LongStrangeTrip:
Gonna go start dinner...first good homecooked meal for Flood in awhile. We'll be back later on to catch up with everyone.

Big hugs and many thanks!

:)

Can't wait. If you have leftovers, Pottery has been pretty desperate...living on his own chili and bottles of this and that he's been recovering from the cabinets!
little showers to my SW have popped up:

665. reedzone 8:29 PM GMT on November 22, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
The NCEP is running the GFSP which will replace the GFS in mid december:

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade

you need to stop watching movies ,,,all that you "doomcast" its called a Super this,o super that ,,,the only super that you can talk about it is the super bowl for sure wiil be at Miami


not what we need right now...
Well obviously I've been looking for my pot of gold in all the wrong places.

Rare Charles Darwin book found on toilet bookshelf
AP

FILE - In this undated file photo, British scientist Charles Robert Darwin, AP – FILE - In this undated file photo, British scientist Charles Robert Darwin, founder of the theory for …
Sun Nov 22, 10:31 am ET

LONDON – An auction house says it is selling a rare first edition of Charles Darwin's "On the Origin of Species" found in a family's guest lavatory in southern England.

Christie's auction house said Sunday the book — one of around 1,250 copies first printed in 1859 — had been on a toilet bookshelf at a family's home in Oxford.

The book will be auctioned on Tuesday, the 150th anniversary of the publication of the famous work. Christie's said the book is likely to sell for 60,000 pounds ($99,000).

Darwin's "The Origin of Species" outlined his theory of natural selection, the foundation for the modern understanding of evolution.

Celebrations around the world this year have marked the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth.

___
Quoting Floodman:
So how are you folks today? I understand that there has been some questiin as to how I'm doing and let me just say that aside from feeling like I was taken apart and put back together somewhat wrong, I'm fine...I'm weak and don't get around well without a walker and I need to use a backbrace to sit up for any length of time but other than that I am remarkably well. Theres a great deal to the theory that you need to get out of bed immediatley and trying to walk and sit, etc. Helps with the confidence as well.

I want to thank everyone that was thinking about me and asking after me (my understanding from Trip is that it was nearly everyone; it does a man good to know that he is well thought of and has friends

I'll be back on later (I'm a little worn out right now) and I will also jump on Trips blog. I'm hoping to be back to a more normal schedule by the end of this week, so I'll see a great many of you folks then

Thanks again for all your concern; I am truly touched and I really do appreciate you!


Awww darn.. another bet lost.... who had Nov 22?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


not what we need right now...


Hope you get some more help already, and hope they keep the qualifying dates open longer, might need it, it seems.

Kaine asks for federal disaster aid for victims of last week’s nor’easter
By Staff Reports
Published: November 21, 2009
Richmond Times-Dispatch

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine today asked for federal disaster assistance for areas that suffered damage from the Nov. 11-15 nor'easter.

He is asking for low-interest loans for homeowners and renters and funds to help local governments make repairs, a statement issued today said.

"I've seen firsthand the damage inflicted on Virginians as a result of last week's nor'easter and it's clear the impact will be felt for some time to come," he said.

He is requesting aid from the Small Business Association and Federal Emergency Management Agency for the cities of Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach and the counties of Halifax, Isle of Wight, King and Queen, Northampton and Surry.

As usual, all the storms and widespread rain stays north of us, while rain and storms to our west fall apart just before getting to us. There are even some nearly stationary thunderstorms well to our south. Cut us a break mother nature!
702. P451
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.

Weak couplet under 40,00' top
699. LOL, Orca - can't keep a good man down! It will probably be several days before he can spend more than a few minutes at a time in here, but he enjoys the company far too much to stay gone for long.

:)
694. Hey Awake, I never cook a little if I can cook a lot! Should be plenty of leftovers for Pottery.

I'm gonna go hang in Flood's Recovery Room since I have nothing to contribute to the weather discussion today.
Everyone should take a moment to find, download, and read the hacked file. It almost makes me sick. I have never seen such bias coming from "so-called" scientists. One would not believe the collusion and outright lying manipulation these people were committing for many years. It also proves that "global warming" is nothing but a fantastic creation.
Quoting cubanheat:
665. reedzone 8:29 PM GMT on November 22, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
The NCEP is running the GFSP which will replace the GFS in mid december:

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade

you need to stop watching movies ,,,all that you "doomcast" its called a Super this,o super that ,,,the only super that you can talk about it is the super bowl for sure wiil be at Miami


LOL.. That's all I'm gonna say. I said I stated that for fun. My Noreaster forecast with Ida did come true, so wishcast? No, try looking at the patterns.
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.



OMG an eye!!!!! :P
Local Forecast I made for my area from 5:00PM EST today:



710. xcool
pp .
711. xcool
lll
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
9:00 AM JST November 23 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 7.5N 148.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 8.6N 146.1E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Our MIA NWS almost never opines, but there might be some who are looking forward to the GFSP, based on this aft's discussion:

Long term...Tuesday through Thanksgiving day...deep layer ridge
over western Atlantic and Caribbean will begin to build and advect
moisture northwestward. This will keep the local area under a
chance of precipitation. Believe GFS still struggling with convective
feedback problems as it still shows unbelievable Omega values with
equally ridiculous precipitation amounts (near 8 inches) over
South Florida Tuesday night associated with rather insignificant
upper level dynamics.


On the other hand, an inch, or three, would be nice.
Stange stuff. I posted a pc of music here earlier today (the blog was very quiet then), by the name of Earthquake.
Well, shortly after that we had 2 mag. 5,0 quakes.
Quoting pottery:
Stange stuff. I posted a pc of music here earlier today (the blog was very quiet then), by the name of Earthquake.
Well, shortly after that we had 2 mag. 5,0 quakes.
Good Evening Pottery, could you actually feel the earthquakes? I have never experienced one.
Hydrus. Strangely, I did not feel either one! But I was out and about at the time.
Believe me, when terra firma starts moving about under your feet, it is very weird. I dont feel comfortable for hours after that.
Hi everyone,
i haven't been in lately, getting ready for the hoildays. i saw this and thought of you all. I wish all of you a great Thanksgiving!

It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"
"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?"
"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "It's definitely going to be a very cold winter."
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"
"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."
"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.
The weatherman replied, "The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy."
Quoting pottery:
Hydrus. Strangely, I did not feel either one! But I was out and about at the time.
Believe me, when terra firma starts moving about under your feet, it is very weird. I dont feel comfortable for hours after that.
I would not feel comfortable either. I have researched earthquakes quite a bit, and know how deadly they are. Caracas does come to mind.
Howdy Waterwitch, They say the Indians do in fact have a certain instinct about the weather. Hope you are doing well...:)
Hydrus, where are you, that you have never felt a 'quake?
And yes, Caracas is near here, and on the sams fault, so we get quite a lot each year. Most of them are too small to feel, but last year we had a 6 and a couple of 5+. Not nice.
Quoting pottery:
Hydrus, where are you, that you have never felt a 'quake?
And yes, Caracas is near here, and on the sams fault, so we get quite a lot each year. Most of them are too small to feel, but last year we had a 6 and a couple of 5+. Not nice.
S.W. Florida, I have been there a very long time. I thought I felt one once many years ago, but nobody mentioned it. So I wrote it off as a equilibrium issue. I did look up Florida earthquakes and they actually do happen here but it is a rarity.
Check this! JB'S Latest.


SUNDAY 9 PM

Snow in New Orleans again this winter?


I cant remember the last time there was measurable snow in New Orleans two winters in row, but that is on the table this year First of all it snowed to stick last year, the earliest measurable ever. The pattern next week and beyond is one that could mean early season snow again is seen into the deep south. The overall pattern this winter, with the el nino, is in line with the kind of pattern that leads to snow in the deep south. But its particularly interesting to see if New Orleans can put this question away early, since the pattern with the negative AO and the pronounced southern jet developing is something that could lead to alot of people in areas where snow is not that common seeing it early this year

thanks for reading, ciao for now


Will be interesting to see for sure.On occasion, Here in N. Fla.during winter i see 4 or 5 flakes,usually at about 3 a.m. it seems like lol.The deep south could see an interesting winter, i think there is a good possibility of a significant icing event or two....
There's only one(as opposed to three) cases for a major Earth-Quack in Florida. And that's a one in a thousand year event.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong. During the Superstorm(March 93'), wasn't the AO(Arctic Oscillation) and NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) negative and the PAO(Pacific American Oscillation) positive under a strong El Nino. If so, December would be the ideal month for one to occur.

Not sayin' it's gonna happen though. Just wondering.
What's with fronts stalling around here(Orlando) as of late. If this keeps up, I'm moving either to Arizona or Tallahassee.
729. xcool
SevereHurricane nope im not busted i have .http://www.accuweather.com/proBenefits.asp? thank your
730. xcool
;
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ##
09:00 AM JST November 23 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.1N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary
Quoting winter123:
potentially big snow event for the northeast on the 28th-29th.

18z. cant wait for 00z, this storm keeps getting bigger. Clipper, rockies storm, and coastal low all merge over new york.
733. xcool
winter123 you like cool .com website huh
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.


amazing... no shear, outflow, all we need now is a surface low! With the water temperatures, doubt it but with how this looks... anyway, its at 50w 37n now.
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.



Thats Ex-Ida??? Dang!
I'll be attending the conference here tomorrow and will do a entry on it for Weds most likely.





No-nonsense general eyes warmer Cuba ties



The butt-kicking, cigar-chomping, no-nonsense general who lifted New Orleans from the depths of Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 thinks Cuba has some important lessons to teach this country in storm-fighting, and wants warmer relations with our neighbor to the south for that reason.

“They’re closer to the hurricane highway,” says retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, talking from the home he’s still settling in at in Baton Rouge. “Even though it’s a poor country, challenged economically in all directions, they do a good job of hurricane (damage) prevention and preparedness. I say that tongue-in-cheek because it is a socialist, Communist-controlled country. At the same time people spend an extraordinary amount of time preparing to prevent damage to property and to human beings.”

Honoré will take part in the Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes Monday at the River City Complex in New Orleans’ East Bank. The event is sponsored by Washington-based Center for International Policy.

With Honoré will be Jose Rubiera of the Cuban Meteorological Center; Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami; Dr. Mesa Ridel, the director of the Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine in Havana; retired Lt. Col Jerry Sneed, director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority; and Dr. Alex Isakov, founding director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

Honoré, who will be in Shreveport in December to help send off the deploying National Guard unit in which his son Michael is a member, recently spent four days in Cuba and came away impressed.

Read more about this issue, and Honoré's views, in Monday's print and online editions of The Times.

737. xcool




I gotta give Ida-ex an outside chance of becoming one of those is it or isn't it like Grace, off in the far East Atlantic.

Pretty interesting about Cuba.
It sure was a nice surprise to get an invite to the conference here skyepony..

heres tomorrows schedule of speakers..

> The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
>
> A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
>
> To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to
Mardi Gras World
>
> 1380 Port of New Orleans Place
>
>
>
> 2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
>
>
>
> 2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and
Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center
(invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by
Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
>
>
>
> 2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes.
Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations
(invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force
Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of
Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University
Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood
Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
>
>
>
> 4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster
Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin
American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding
Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and
Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU’s Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of
International Cuba Society
>
>
>
> 4:30 – 4:45 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to
Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment.
Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
>
>
>
> 4:45 – 5:00 p.m. – Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing
Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States.
Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
>
>
>
> 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations
to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express
opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize
to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University
Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
>
>
>
> 6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 23 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (997 hPa) located at 8.5S 53.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle and up to 100 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 08.9S 53.2E - 50 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 09.6S 52.7E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.4S 51.2E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 11.5S 49.5E - 90 kts (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
========================
Classical and microwave imagery including Scatterometric data shows that the system has rapidly intensified over the last 18 hours. Specially last night microwave imagery shows that the low level organization has significantly improved.

System is analysed as T2.5 at (0000z) by SAB analysis.

Latest satellite imagery shows that the intensification trend is still on the way and the system is upgraded to a 40 knot moderate tropical storm and named "BONGANI" by Madagascar Meteorological Services.

Bongani is currently located on the northwestern edge of a mid level ridge and a weakness within this ridge can be seen along 50E. Present forecast is based on consensus of all available dynamical guidance that show a slow down and a more southwestward track at short range. The mid level ridge is forecast to rebuild Wednesday and the track could by that time take a more west southwest component. There is a lot of dispersion among all available forecast track, some guidance (UKMO, LAM Aladin-Reunion) have a more westward track than the offical forecast.

All factors look favorable for continued intensification. The only limiting element could be the intrusion within the circulation of dry subtropical air currently located to the southwest of the system. Intensification philosophy is a climatological one that bring Bongani to the tropical cyclone stage by 36 hours. It is not excluded that this could intensify at a faster rate

Considering all the above, interest in the Fahquar Archipelago, northern tip of Madagascar, Comoros Archipelago, and Mayotte Island should monitor the progress of Moderate Tropical Cyclone Bongani

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
15:00 PM JST November 23 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.3N 147.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 9.0N 145.7E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)


Bongani aiming for northern part of Madagascar...
Quoting winter123:

amazing... no shear, outflow, all we need now is a surface low! With the water temperatures, doubt it but with how this looks... anyway, its at 50w 37n now.

Isn't it 28N 48W?
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 23NOV)
=========================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 3.7N 107.4E or 295 NM east-northeast of Singapore. Animated multispectral imagery shows broad cyclonic turning of deep convection near an improving low level circulation center. A 0156z ASCAT Pass shows an increasingly symmetric low level circulation center with winds of 10-15 knots, Additionally, The ASCAT Pass shows 30 knot peripheral winds to the northwest (Associated with the northeasterly cold surge through the south china sea) and 20-25 knots winds to the southwest and southeast of the system's center. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis with moderate vertical wind shear and radial outflow.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. Due to the improving nature of the low level circulation center, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours IS FAIR
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The Low Pressure Area East of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "URDUJA"

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 9.7ºN 127.1ºE or 170 kms east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Leyte
2.Southern Leyte
3.Eastern Samar
4.Western Samar

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao del Sur
2.Surigao del Norte
3.Siargao
4.Dinagat Islands

Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
746. IKE
186 hours...
16 minutes...and it's officially finished...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

any chance of another sw carib sytem beginning of dec? watched that crabbing show incredible shots of the swells in the broken ice
The East Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass for the last three years, according to an analysis of data from a gravity-measuring satellite mission.

The scientists involved say they are "surprised" by the finding, because the giant East Antarctic sheet, unlike the west, has been thought to be stable.

Other scientists say ice loss could not yet be pinned on climate change, and uncertainties in the data are large.

The US-based team reports its findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Link

(Something for both sides of the argument there, if the data checks out: East Antarctic may finally be showing signs of impact, but on the other hand, that impact is still very small it seems.)
749. P451
X'Ida'Easter - Around 30N and 45-50W.





It just WONT DIE. Wow!
750. P451
Anyone think we have a shot at Joakin out of X-Ida-Easter? Looking pretty healthy and it's in the area you'd expect one of those late season short lived STS's to pop up.

751. P451
GFS bombing a nor'easter for the mid-atlantic around the 120 hour range.

168hr GFS Model

IKE - Hopefully a peaceful end to the season next week...
I respect Dr. Masters a lot, but I think the release of those emails is more damning than he realizes. It wasn't just emails taken out of conext, there were source code files included, and the comments in some of those -- for those of us who do software engineering for a living -- were equally damning.

Also, Dr. notes that there are no references to Soros et al. But there are enough references to the need to delete certain compromising emails and even data files that I think the veneer of selfless scientific seeking of truth has been sufficiently lifted, and what we see are people trying to prove a theory -- often confounded by contrary data, which they reject because it doesn't fit the theory.

The idea that the science is settled and the cure is confiscatory taxation of, and massive redistrubution of wealth from first-world countries is hardly "proven" at the moment.

I wouldn't care except certain politicians are reaching for my wallet and thereby my freedom and I think these emails confirm some of the fears of those of us who find all this so-called debate strikingly more political than scientific.
754. P451
24 Hours of X'Ida'Easter (not the best perspective, she's in that void)



She organized quite quickly overnight but I wonder about the environment moving in on her NW. Shear moving in rapidly so the window would be small here if she were to do something.

Still amazing though. This is 24 days now since the SW Caribbean first gave us reason to start watching.

755. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - Hopefully a peaceful end to the season next week...


I'll 2nd those thoughts.
756. P451
The political and corporate side of the climate change issue is disturbing.

One the one side if you prove Global Warming beyond a reasonable doubt then you open the gates for the "New Alternate Energy" sectors to get grants to further their research and projects no matter how futile some of those may be - and then you have wasted money.

On the other side if you prove Global Warming to be a farce beyond a reasonable doubt then you open the flood gates for companies currently operating carelessly to continue doing so. Coal fired power plants, gasoline powered vehicles. There will be less of a need for restrictions on such because if it's proven they are NOT contributing to climate change then why spend money governing these entities?

So, no matter what, we've got the old double edged sword here and it's why I detest politics and they should stay out of it.

Let the scientists continue their research instead of them being used as pawns to further a political/corporate standpoint.

I will say this: We still know next to nothing given how nasty the debates get in regards to GW.

You have one side trotting out charts and graphs that claim to have proven trustworthy data going back hundreds and in some cases thousands of years showing a non-stop runaway warming trend.

You have another side showing proof that the data collection is untrustworthy in many ways and that you can't compare an Eskimo who uses a shot of vodka on his window sill to tell whether or not it's gone under -40F outside from 250 years ago - to a polar satellite that was launched 15 years ago and began to take infared readings of the surface of the arctic.

And both argue who is right.

It's sad, really, but it's what it is and why I stay out of the meat of these arguments and simply state what I believe:

The data collected is trustworthy to maybe 15 years ago and you can't apply it to any argument that the planet is warming or not. You just can't no matter how hard you try.

Ice cores are interesting except you still can't tell whether or not you had a warmer or cooler year - OR - simply a higher or lower precipitation year. You can't. So you can't see a thin layer of ice and say "oh, here we go, WARM YEAR it didnt snow as much!" - because - it could have been an incredibly COLD AND DRY year - giving you the same result: A thin ice layer.

So, well...that's where I'm going to leave it: The data is untrustworthy. It's tainted in various ways.
One thing not mentioned in the blog article is the Ocean's buffering capacity for CO2 is diminishing. It has dropped by 10% since 2000 according to some blogs I'm reading.
Yes, the shellfish need their PH in a set range in order to make shells so some CO2 is needed but not from antropogenic sources. And now we need to make 10% less just to break even.
758. P451
Quoting IKE:


I'll 2nd those thoughts.


The only thing we have to worry about these days close to home are the parade of coastal lows we've been witnessing.

But, well, as we all know, they too can turn severe and be as damaging as a hurricane itself.
759. IKE
The following is nothing but a joke....

***picked up wife at airport Sunday night***

Wife: Hey honey, how did your weekend go?
Me: Just fine. I debated Global Warming all weekend and didn't get anything accomplished.
..............................................


I'm sorry...I believe GW exists but have zilch to use as a link,etc....and don't feel like arguing over it and fail to see any point in doing so.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

L8R.

Oh....P451....I gave you a plus on post 756.

I've got to go try and make a dollar.
Quoting P451:
GFS bombing a nor'easter for the mid-atlantic around the 120 hour range.

168hr GFS Model



HERE IS GFS/MRF 4 PANE RUN SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS WITH SECOND BEING STRONGEST OF THE 2

sorry about caps
KOG - No problem here. Just thought you were a little exciting about the model runs.
For everyone in Florida especially the penisula there appears to be a good chance that a very major severe weather event may occur TWICE next week. Two very strong storms possibly coming up out of the GOM. For people that live on the back side of these systems watchout because we could be talking about a blizzard in places that normally don't see snow. Let's watch the models over the next couple of days to see if this does verify.
I hate to wishcast but a superstorm is not out of the question next week. Things look to get very interesting because of the way the weather pattern is beginning to setup. Arctic cold colliding very warm air over the GOM. A perfect setup it looks for major storms.
Anyone here going to Copenhagen?

766. P451
KOG: Wow, just wow...what a winter this is going to be! I can't wait personally. I love the big snow storms. It's been a good six years since we've had multiple big snow storms (central new jersey).


IKE: Yeah, it's all good man. Take care.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
I respect Dr. Masters a lot, but I think the release of those emails is more damning than he realizes. It wasn't just emails taken out of conext, there were source code files included, and the comments in some of those -- for those of us who do software engineering for a living -- were equally damning.

Also, Dr. notes that there are no references to Soros et al. But there are enough references to the need to delete certain compromising emails and even data files that I think the veneer of selfless scientific seeking of truth has been sufficiently lifted, and what we see are people trying to prove a theory -- often confounded by contrary data, which they reject because it doesn't fit the theory.

The idea that the science is settled and the cure is confiscatory taxation of, and massive redistrubution of wealth from first-world countries is hardly "proven" at the moment.

I wouldn't care except certain politicians are reaching for my wallet and thereby my freedom and I think these emails confirm some of the fears of those of us who find all this so-called debate strikingly more political than scientific.


Good post. I agree wholeheartedly.
Quoting Dakster:
KOG - No problem here. Just thought you were a little exciting about the model runs.
not excited but watchin anyway
Honestly if I say the "S" word, I'll be taking the heat like last night. People on this blog are amazing, called me a sick person. I'm sorry but a Christian is not a sicko, I don't want to see any disasters, just predicting by what I see with the pattern.
771. P451
NEW BLOG



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NEW BLOG


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772. P451
NEW BLOG



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Dr. Masters,

In reading your blog, your positions present a very clear bias against the extraction and use of coal. If you look at any industry you will find that changes take place in the landscape, physical conditions can be affected on other properties, and wherever man and machinery is involved, there will be deaths from accidents. Regarding your insertion of the Buffalo Creek disaster, I lived near Buffalo Creek, remember very well the day it happened, and know and worked with people who survived it. It was a terribly tragic event brought about by only doing the minimum required instead of looking ahead for broader implications. What industry isn't somewhere occasionally guilty of that. Should we eliminate every industry that has some type of major fatal accident? Instead we should learn how to not repeat the situation.

Is the operation of large surface coal mines any more destructive to the environment than the building of a major cities? Considering the long term pollutant loading and loss of lives, a city seems to be more destructive. But I don't see you recommending the cessation of city building.

Most of the complaints against mountaintop removal surface mining comes from people who don't like the look of the active or finished operation. They don't take into consideration that it is the land owner, or lessee with the approval of the owner, who is using the mining land as they see fit for their business. That is the same thing that any industry, including agriculture, does.

I agree there are problems from insufficient regulations, and sometimes deliberately lax regulatory enforcement, against offsite impacts. But those are correctable. Please use your resources to promote the correcting of problems in the extraction and use of coal, as it is the largest energy source we have in this country. For example, think of the national environmental and energy self-sufficiency benefits from using the multiple billions of tax dollars dispersed by Congress if they had been focused on upgrading older power plants.

In your last point, you discuss the deaths of 65 U.S. coal miners in 2006 and the thousands more around the world. You state that tens of thousands of miners contract black lung disease each year. While any fatal industrial accident is tragic, don't hold that up as a reason to not have coal mining unless you are also going to promote the abolition of automobiles to eliminate the thousands (not just 65) killed and injured in automobile accidents. I don't know where you obtained the information on miners contracting black lung, but at that rate it would only be a few short years until there would not be any miners alive and able to work. The mining industry uses more machinery and fewer miners per ton of coal than in years past.

Also, please don't compare the safety of mining practices in other countries with those in the U.S. It is through years of efforts to promote safety through regulations and education that the U.S. mine accident fatality record is much better per man hour. The value of a human life is considered much higher in this country (well at least after they are born, but that's another subject) than in many other countries. Even the military recognizes that.

Too much of anything is a bad thing!

But just a question
Volcano CO2
How much CO2 is being produced by the Mexico Volcano?
What about the Italian eruption and the anticipated Alaskian eruption.
Are these volcano CO2 generations the norm; higher or lower than expected annual outputs.
Anyone have an answer?
Your advocacy for Climate Change is a result of your insecurity manifested as conformity to the bubble land of the Bay Area Left Coast. You would have no job, no funding, no friends, and no poontang or poonass if you espoused differently.

Further, you should not call yourself a scientist, but a lobbyist and barker, for not upholding the scientific method, having healthy skepticism, and producing childish lies of omission.

Dr. Masters, you are a baiter.
Dr. Marsters, you have intelligence, but no wisdom, accomplishment but no courage, and enormous self deception and fear of your own insecurity, which leads you to behave like a cheap politico money grubber, not a scientist.

You are deserving of pity.