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Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.


Figure 1. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. A surge rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Wind damage
I don't think Irene is going to do a lot of wind damage to the mid-Atlantic states, since the eye of the storm will be just offshore, and the I-95 corridor from Virginia to New Jersey will be on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. The current wind distribution of Irene (Figure 1) shows almost all of the hurricane's winds are on the right side of the storm, and by the time the storm reaches Virginia, there will be likely be no hurricane-force winds on the left side of Irene. Sustained winds should stay below 74 mph (hurricane force), and wind damage will be similar to that wrought be some of the strongest Nor'easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City. Since Irene will be steadily weakening as it approaches its second landfall on Long Island, I give a 50% chance that no mainland U.S. surface station in New England will record sustained hurricane-force winds. I do think it likely that one or more of the offshore islands--Block Island, Nantucket, and Marthas Vinyard--will get Category 1 hurricane winds. Though the wind damage to buildings will be similar to what the Northeast has seen during some of the more severe nor'easters of the past 20 years, tree damage will be much worse. The trees are in full leaf during hurricane season, and catch the wind much more readily than during the winter. Tree damage will very heavy, and we can expect trees in regions with saturated soils will fall over in high winds onto power lines. Irene is likely to cause one of the top-five most widespread power outages in American history from a storm. The record power outage from a Northeast storm was probably the ten million people that lost power during the great Blizzard of 1993. I don't think Irene's power outages will be quite that extensive, but several million people will likely lose power.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In addition to storm surge, flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are the main threats. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 8" to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. New Jersey has had its 6th wettest August on record, with most of that rain falling in the past two weeks. Expect major river flooding throughout New Jersey the Delmarva Peninsula, and regions near New York City, as Irene's rains run off the saturated soils directly into the rivers. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. I don't think flooding from heavy rains will be a huge concern in North Carolina, which is under moderate to severe drought. Irene's rains are likely to do some good in Southeast Virginia, where a fire triggered by lightning from a thunderstorm on August 4 sparked a fire in the Dismal Swamp that is burning out of control. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday August 31, as issued by NOAA/HPC.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will there, and I will be available if my schedule permits. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and has sent out their relief trailer and crew to North Carolina. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Irene's Wrath !
Hurricane Irene's Wrath !
A shot of the Palm Trees at Nassau, Bahamas being thrashed by high winds during Irene's closest approach !
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Utility pole with street light snapped in half by Irene's winds on a busy street in New Providence.
Irene Response
Irene Response
Portlight deploying to North Carolina

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AllStar17:


And you obviously still have power.


LOL, yeah.
Quoting Levi32:


Nope - worse.
alright and i know ive asked you this but are you still keeping your forecast as a cat 3 making landfall in NC or will you change it?
Quoting Huskymaniac:
Is it me or does the center seem to be farther west than the models predicted?


Been wondering this too. Will the GFDL be right?
1005. dewfree
looks more like Irene is bringging her pressure up to match the winds reather the other stated here.
Irene has had water temps galore to work with .forgive if im wrong,but isnt water temp the fuel for hurricane. she is inbetween now two boundaries . the first one she worked her way threw yesterday and the other she is pushing on now.
yes they both are weak at best . would that not inhibit her from bringing her winds to bare . I think she will have a cat 1 status when she meets land but isnt that a good thing in comparisonto the alternatives.
in june i came on into this blog and gave what i thought to be forecast of the atlantic hurricane season in my opinion and i quote it here:

11 storms 4 hurricanes 2 minimum hurricane hits :this was during a time the official hurricane outlook was 17 storms , I made that forecast based on analog and upper level patterns.I think there is a guy at accuweather that uses these same things to predict the outcome of tropical season and the winter that follows. last sept i put this on disk for the winter 2010 2011 for my area that we would get 2,3.5 to 5,8 to 12 inches of snow , we recieved 1.5,4,8,2.5 inch snows . pretty good huh and i live in an area that doesnt recieve very much snow or hasnt the last 30 years .in case your wondering north al .i will do the same this years as i have been doing this for a few years now . some people hate it some people have come to depend on it . i think them people that hate it ,we'll they will get over it . or not .who cares..mark my word on this storm and her impact of cat 1 status about 93 mph.remeber the place i said land fall would be between mertle and kitty hawk that was made when this storm was on south end of bahamas about 905 miles away. have a good day im out of here untill time of land fall .
dew
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL, yeah.


So if you disappear will it be because you lost power???
1008. ncstorm
I have to say I stopped watching the Weather Channel yesterday..its all about NY...for Irene to get to NY, she has to pass through NC..I dont call 6-11ft storm surge nothing to sneeze about in NC..The weather channel can kick rocks all I care..
Another cell coming at us... winds increasing to 15-20 mph.
Quoting RTPGiants:
Being a long time lurker, but never poster, can I ask why people on this blog get so caught up in rooting for the storm to become stronger or weaker? Is there some sort of betting pool I missed?

Isn't it more important to analyze facts?


Well, aside from the people that look at these storms strictly from an objective position, you have people that want to see massive destruction...and as such root for the storms to gain instensity. Then, you have those who are terrified of these storms and their potential effects, and root for them to die. Additionally, to make it more fun, you have those who are strictly trolls and just want to get a rise out of people. Those people commonly say every storm is dying, falling apart or is over-hyped. You will learn who is worth listening to, and you will learn how to fill up your ignore list as well.
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


Tell me what the power ball numbers are going to be on Saturday. Please
I have nothing to do with the lottery,the state gets enough of my money! But,watch Irene get stronger tonight.
Quoting AllStar17:


So if you disappear will it be because you lost power???


More than likely.
Quoting WaterWitch11:

Well the spelling is questionable. Lol
the troll did do a little homework, but definitely an impostor!
Anyone talking this storm down right now is a complete moron. Bill Read, the director of the NHC himself said earlier today he wished the saffir-simpson scale didn't exist for a storm like this. The wind field is massive, capable of producing an extremely dangerous storm surge. In addition, copious amounts of rain will fall up the east coast.

We should not discount wind damage either! I can't speak for the whole Northeast, but Eastern MA is full of old large trees that have been there for many many years in densely populated neighborhoods. Even TS force wind gusts of 50-70Mph would do tons of tree damage and cause massive power outages.

Refer to the NHC and your local officials for the best storm information for your area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


More than likely.


OK. I sure hope you don't lose power!
Quoting jonelu:
Its windier today here in WPB than it ever was when she was much closer. She is huge and I think the comparison to IKE are accurate...I think the storm surge will be a big problem with this one. Be prepared NE.


Tell me about it. We definitely dodged a bullet. Here in Western West Palm Beach we had all of two squal lines yesterday with a max gust of 25mph. Although I did have a couple pine limbs break off and litter the yard as a result.
1023. Thaale
Quoting Bluestorm5:
people accused the same thing when Ike hit... Ike had Category 2 winds, but Category 4 Storm Surge. Katrina landfalled as Category 3, but it had Category 5 storm surge that broke the record for all time. Irene is similar to Ike in size so the surge should be equal to Category 3 PLUS the tide is at the highest point of the month to add few more feet to the surge to make it Category 4 style surge.

The glass-half-full side of spring tide is that for the area (around NYC it looks like) where the highest storm surge comes during low tide, it will be the lowest low tide of the month.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

There is a hurricane that will make landfall on the United States East Coast within the next 24 hours...Let's stick on topic and talk about it. Don't worry about the Taz imposter, or the people who are downing this storm.
hi guys i sure hop you this is the real me by looking at my join date
1026. A4Guy
to me, Irene looks less and less impressive with each click of the sat loop. maybe high-end cat 1 at landfall....high-end TS in the NY/NJ area.
I understand the caution with shutting down NYC mass transit...but I hope it turns out to be for nothing...though people will be even less likely to take a threat seriously "next time."
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im very angry the NHC is lowering the wind speed for irene. people wont take this storm seriously if they do this....
Listen, I would rather them to be accurate with facts than wrong with hype.

What people do not seem do understand is that some people overkill on preparation spending unnecessary time and funds that they may not have on some event that has on a extremely low probability of ever happening.

I've lived through 8 hurricanes in South Florida so I know that it does happen.

There just has to be a balance.

With that said, Irene is a wonky storm with more unique characteristics than the one I have seen in a long time.
Quoting QacarXan:


Been wondering this too. Will the GFDL be right?


I hope not!!! That would stink for those of us in rain soaked upstate NY. The further east it is, the less damage it can do for all involved. I mean, someone has to be in the direct path it seems but the more of this storm that is out to sea, the better!
Something tells me that many (most? all?) of those accusing various authorities of "fear-mongering" and "over-hyping" for taking precautions to ensure that damage to life and property is minimized are probably the exact same people who were first online after Katrina or the Japanase tsunami to accuse authorities of malfeasance for failing to do enough to warn and protect their citizens.

Armchair quarterbacking is a famous American sport, but it sure does get tedious to listen to...
If you live in a well-built home or building a bit inland or at a higher elevation (20-ft above sea level or more)... think about calling your friend's family that lives near the beach or in a low-lying area near the river. Invite them to spend Saturday night and Sunday with YOUR family.

Some people won't evacuate simply because they can't afford it. Others just don't want to inconvenience anybody. Still others aren't aware that they have anyplace else to go. In some of those cases, people are too proud or embarrassed to ask for help.

Your phone call and offer might just save their lives. It may be a BIG relief to them. If you have a fenced back yard... invite them to bring their dog. Cats or birds will likely not be that big of a deal for 1 day. Some people won't evac without their pets. Tell them to bring their cars, boat or RV. Some people won't leave without "stuff".

If you are going to call... do it today. Give people a chance to pack and leave. Give them a safe place to go. One day won't hurt... and the chance to evac safely may be the biggest gift you ever gave them.
1032. Dennis8
..HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT
NEW YORK CITY-MANHATTAN
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HUMID
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 70 MPH...
BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
85 MPH...DECREASING TO 80 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


can u find me one for the Chas area...press just called, still no power, wants updates...last i got on my phone was conditions for us to be worst from 3pm - 8pm tonight...tia and press thanks you too...already told him you were posting winds for us :)


Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi guys i sure hop you this is the real me by looking at my join date


Good to see the real incarnation of Taz has returned.
1036. 900MB
Back to the computer. Been away for a couple hours...

Anyone have some recon? Looks like weakening has stabilized.

P.S. NYC is shutting down.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


can u find me one for the Chas area...press just called, still no power, wants updates...last i got on my phone was conditions for us to be worst from 3pm - 8pm tonight...tia and press thanks you too...already told him you were posting winds for us :)


Folly Island

1038. tkeith
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi guys i sure hop you this is the real me by looking at my join date
everyone knows it's not you Taz.

1040. Speeky
All the birds in New York are gone. Its dead silent out here in Westchester county. Also why hasn't anyone boarded up their windows?
Quoting Levi32:


I think catastrophic would be if Irene was a Cat 4 or Cat 5, not that damage won't be severe there.


NC does have a lot of barrier islands to protect the big cities (i.e. Texas). There will still be destruction, enormous erosion problems, and a lot of wild life killed but this will not be a tsunami!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Something tells me that many (most? all?) of those accusing various authorities of "fear-mongering" and "over-hyping" for taking precautions to ensure that damage to life and property is minimized are probably the exact same people who were first online after Katrina or the Japanase tsunami to accuse authorities of malfeasance for failing to do enough to warn and protect their citizens.

Armchair quarterbacking is a famous American sport, but it sure does get tedious to listen to...


Well said.
Headed back out to the pier here in Cherry Grove section of North Myrtle Beach, SC, was well overhead this morning should be nuts now
Based on MIMIC and IR I wouldn't rule out if Irene makes landfall as a gigantic cat 1 in NC.
Quoting 900MB:
Back to the computer. Been away for a couple hours...

Anyone have some recon? Looks like weakening has stabilized.

P.S. NYC is shutting down.


An HH plane is on it's way, currently over east Florida.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Good to see the real incarnation of Taz has returned.



i was at work this got in home



all so if am gone during the day and some one like this comes on when am gone its not me
Quoting Thaale:

The glass-half-full side of spring tide is that for the area (around NYC it looks like) where the highest storm surge comes during low tide, it will be the lowest low tide of the month.
Dr. Masters, NHC, and Weather Channel are all saying the highest tide of the month. Is it the lowest or the highest tide of the month, anyone?
1053. Levi32
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
alright and i know ive asked you this but are you still keeping your forecast as a cat 3 making landfall in NC or will you change it?


We'll probably know in 12 hours whether it's going to tighten up or not. I'm still keeping it at 115mph at landfall. We'll see how it goes. These finer details in strengthening/weakening trends are difficult to forecast.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


EPIC SUPER ULTRA POOFAGE TIME FOR YOU!!!!!
lol...reminds me of the campfire scene in BLAZING SADDLES.
irene is dead look at lasted vis sattilite http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1109_sat.html
1060. cutgr
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
Headed back out to the pier here in Cherry Grove section of North Myrtle Beach, SC, was well overhead this morning should be nuts now


cherry grove nice place.
Irene appears like it wants to turn NNE in short order.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi guys i sure hop you this is the real me by looking at my join date


Hey Taz! Happy to see the real deal. #4, on ignore!
Reporting that the winds is getting stronger with that tiny cell coming closer. It's blowing from east to west.
Quoting Levi32:


We'll probably know in 12 hours whether it's going to tighten up or not. I'm still keeping it at 115mph at landfall. We'll see how it goes. These finer details in strengthening/weakening trends are difficult to forecast.


I don't know about you, but this has been one of the most interesting storms I have ever tracked.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Dr. Masters, NHC, and Weather Channel are all saying the highest tide of the month. Is it the lowest or the highest tide of the month, anyone?


this is the new moon high tide for next 2 days... average is 2 feet above normal high
1068. kaiden
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi guys i sure hop you this is the real me by looking at my join date


We know who the real Taz is, just leave the phony alone.
Quoting seafarer459:


Hey Taz! Happy to see the real deal. #4, on ignore!



hi how are you
1070. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't know about you, but this has been one of the most interesting storms I have ever tracked.


Probably because it's been aimed at your house :P

But yes, it has been an interesting storm.
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
irene is dead look at lasted vis sattilite http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1109_sat.html


You're an idiot, seriously. Irene is far from dead, and saying something like that could seriously endanger people.
Charleston Air Force Base
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -80.03 Elev: 59
Last Update on Aug 26, 2:56 pm EDT


Light Rain

75 F
(24 C) Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: N 20 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.66" (1004.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 74 F (23 C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Not to bad inland a little bit.
Quoting kaiden:


We know who the real Taz is, just leave the phony alone.



i no you guys no that am the real me but do the admins no
The reason why Category 3 landfall can't be ruled out is because of Gulf Stream... but the storm is getting weaker so I have no clue.
Quoting AllStar17:
Irene appears like it wants to turn NNE in short order.


Doubt it, look at the long satellite loop...Due north.

Link

(Turn on tropical points)
Why have i had to poof like 20 people today? Don't people have better things to do than spam a tropical weather blog when a disaster is occurring?
Based on current location of HH over JAX I'm doubtful they'll be able to make a center fix / pressure estimate before the 5pm full. Think they'll delay the update until it gets the first vortex update?
Here is a local news station for you LeviLink streaming available.
imposter taz tisk tsik such a sad little person peoples lives are in danger and all you do is come on to a site of profecionls and mess you about i pity you sir >>>> IN OTHER NEWS take a look at latest vis pass of irene shes dead
1082. Thaale
Does anybody know what Irene's IKE is, as compared to say those of Katrina and Ike as they approached landfall? I don't know what site supplies IKE stats. TIA.
1083. HarryMc
Quoting Levi32:


We'll probably know in 12 hours whether it's going to tighten up or not. I'm still keeping it at 115mph at landfall. We'll see how it goes. These finer details in strengthening/weakening trends are difficult to forecast.


I'm agreeing with you Levi. Structure is there less well-defined eye. Nothing in its path for it to stumble on at this point.
Quoting Tazmanian:



hi how are you


Good my friend. And you?
Quoting Levi32:


Probably because it's been aimed at your house :P

But yes, it has been an interesting storm.


lol.
1086. oakland
Quoting Tazmanian:



i no you guys no that am the real me but do the admins no


Yes Taz they know. Don't worry about it.
1087. FLdewey
*Tons* of dry air being wrapped into the hurricane... This could further significantly weaken Irene. Winds may continue to fall!

~ Brooks Garner (NBC met)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Charleston Air Force Base
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -80.03 Elev: 59
Last Update on Aug 26, 2:56 pm EDT


Light Rain

75 �F
(24 �C) Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: N 20 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.66" (1004.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 74 �F (23 �C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Not to bad inland a little bit.


im between the 2...Press directly on the beach...
Don't underestimate this storm. She may look ragged and weaker at the moment, but she's still packing the kinetic energy of a major CAT3.

1090. dewfree
funny i see most of you when im not posting im watching i have seen most of you post things that were not of topic , i see that troll stuff alot too . care that you are not what you may be calling others lol have a good one and like i said i will return to see the accuracy of what i said ,if you have any problems with that ,please reframe from letting us know . and you are right this is a tropical weather blog untill something better comes along lol . i have seen it all on here ,especially when there isnt any activity in the tropics ,
God given gifts have nothing to do with the ability of man to train hiself in his schools to the facts of propaganda. have a nice day like i said im gone
gust of 35-40 just hit my house, but went back to 10-20 mph now.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
The reason why Category 3 landfall can't be ruled out is because of Gulf Stream... but the storm is getting weaker so I have no clue.


100% agree. With those warm waters a short period of re-intensification is not unlikely.

1093. oakland
Quoting NoVaForecaster:
Why have i had to poof like 20 people today? Don't people have better things to do than spam a tropical weather blog when a disaster is occurring?


Sadly no.......
Flooding could become a huge issue with Irene, as the wind threat diminishes.
1095. Motoko
Quoting tiggeriffic:


kite boarder near sullivan's island was spotted bout mile out...then that bad feeder band hit...last i heard they were still looking for him


Could this be the first winner of the Darwin Award?
Quoting seafarer459:


Good my friend. And you?



am doing vary vary well
Must say great job so far with the predicted track.
Anyone have a link that lists evacuation orders?
1100. Levi32
Quoting BLee2333:
Don't underestimate this storm. She may look ragged and weaker at the moment, but she's still packing the kinetic energy of a major CAT3.



As she should with a 951mb pressure. That's why she's so dangerous. The storm surge will be typical of a Cat 3 even if she's a 2.
I think Irene is just maintaining and preserving her strength at best. This storm seems to still be expanding itself slightly which is amazing given how big it is already. I don't her to strengthen more than 5-10 MPH and I don't think it will make a big difference if she does so. The fact is she has Cat 3 level air pressure and this should be a sign enough that the winds on this storm is not a good enough representative of how powerful it is.
Anyone have a link that lists evacuation orders?
Can anyone explain to me the latest steering forecast? I can't seem to find it. Going mobile here...:(
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Dr. Masters, NHC, and Weather Channel are all saying the highest tide of the month. Is it the lowest or the highest tide of the month, anyone?
Lowest low and highest high I believe. As with many things timing is critical.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Something tells me that many (most? all?) of those accusing various authorities of "fear-mongering" and "over-hyping" for taking precautions to ensure that damage to life and property is minimized are probably the exact same people who were first online after Katrina or the Japanese tsunami to accuse authorities of malfeasance for failing to do enough to warn and protect their citizens.

Armchair quarterbacking is a famous American sport, but it sure does get tedious to listen to...
Agreed about the Armchair quarterbacking but not so much about your first comment.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
gust of 35-40 just hit my house, but went back to 10-20 mph now.



Where are you located?
Quoting Levi32:


We'll probably know in 12 hours whether it's going to tighten up or not. I'm still keeping it at 115mph at landfall. We'll see how it goes. These finer details in strengthening/weakening trends are difficult to forecast.


Look at the SST maps.

Look at her projected path.

The puffs of convection come from Hot SST's.

Her surge and windfield is plowing the fresh hot Gulf Stream into every bay up the east coast.

That water is almost as warm as the Gulf itself until you pass the Outer Banks.

The models are seeing this.
Quoting TexasGulf:
If you live in a well-built home or building a bit inland or at a higher elevation (20-ft above sea level or more)... think about calling your friend's family that lives near the beach or in a low-lying area near the river. Invite them to spend Saturday night and Sunday with YOUR family.

Some people won't evacuate simply because they can't afford it. Others just don't want to inconvenience anybody. Still others aren't aware that they have anyplace else to go. In some of those cases, people are too proud or embarrassed to ask for help.

Your phone call and offer might just save their lives. It may be a BIG relief to them. If you have a fenced back yard... invite them to bring their dog. Cats or birds will likely not be that big of a deal for 1 day. Some people won't evac without their pets. Tell them to bring their cars, boat or RV. Some people won't leave without "stuff".

If you are going to call... do it today. Give people a chance to pack and leave. Give them a safe place to go. One day won't hurt... and the chance to evac safely may be the biggest gift you ever gave them.


Great post
10-15 MPH sustained, 20-25 MPH frequent gusts, 30-35 MPH infrequent gusts.
My guess is that Irene will be borderline cat1/2 at landfall in NC, rain will be a huge issue up through Maine though.
ok...out for a bit...gonna try to brave the streets b4 the next feeder band...
1117. HCW

Quoting Motoko:


Could this be the first winner of the Darwin Award?


Unfortunately it may well be.
If you ARE living in a low-lying area near the coast or river...and plan to evacuate, please don't leave without;

1) Turn OFF your main electrical breaker. Before electricity goes off for good, it often surges off/on first in hurricane winds. You don't need the extra damage that surging electricity can cause.

2) Turn OFF your main gas valve to the house. If something happens to your home... you don't want THAT danger to add to the problem. It only takes a few seconds to turn back on afterward.

3) Turn OFF the main water valve to your home. Again... you can always turn it on again later. If anything happens (tree falling on home, etc...) you don't want an interior water leak to add to the flooding problems.

If you watched the footage from Galveston pre-Ike... you likely saw several house fires happen when the winds kicked up. Same thing pre-Rita. The fire department can't respond if the winds are above 35-40 mph. If tropical storm force winds have arrived, fire & police will NOT respond to calls. You don't want YOUR house to be a potential risk. It only takes a few seconds, but may save your home from catastrophic damage while you're gone.
Quoting Motoko:


Could this be the first winner of the Darwin Award?


Don't forget the poor soul in PR who was driving on a flooded road. She should be in the nomination pool.
1122. Levi32
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Look at the SST maps.

Look at her projected path.

The puffs of convection come from Hot SST's.

Her surge and windfield is plowing the fresh hot Gulf Stream into every bay up the east coast.

That water is almost as warm as the Gulf itself until you pass the Outer Banks.

The models are seeing this.


Right, the models are seeing the water. It's hard to tighten up the core of a dried-out hurricane as large as this though, and the Gulf Stream is very thin. The models may be responding too quickly to it, but we will see. I've had my forecast for a low-end Cat 3 at landfall for a while now, and I'll stick to it based on what we're seeing today.
Gonzo (Gulfstream IV) is picking up intermittent dry air in the SE quadrant. Just how far apart do temp and dew point need to be to dry enough to have a significant effect? Does it need to be consistent through altitude?

Thanks.

Looks like they are running a counter clockwise pattern. I would imagine that saves quite a bit of fuel ;-).
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Look at the SST maps.

Look at her projected path.

The puffs of convection come from Hot SST's.

Her surge and windfield is plowing the fresh hot Gulf Stream into every bay up the east coast.

That water is almost as warm as the Gulf itself until you pass the Outer Banks.

The models are seeing this.
100% agreed!
Update
*All graphics can be magnified by clicking on them (they can also be further magnified in the new window by clicking on the graphic)






While the attention is now focus on hurricane Irene the the devastating consequences for the eastern seaboard of the CONUS, my attention as a resident of the lesser antilles is now focused on the consistent runs of the reliable models, that a very strong cyclone will plow through the windward islands around the 6th of sept. the disturbance is about to exit the african coast the next 24 hrs. Like the residents of the eastern usa who can see their plight, we in the ilands have to wait for this scenario to play out.
The mere fact that Irene was a Cat 3 is going to be enough to create a storm surge reminiscent of a Cat 3 hurricane. Just look at what happened with Katrina (no, I am not saying that this is going to be like Katrina, just showing an example), she weakened to a Cat 3 before landfall, yet still produced a Cat 5 surge.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone have a link that lists evacuation orders?

http://www.vaemergency.gov/
Link
Levi & Others

Here is a live local news stream for Eastern NC

Link
1137. Levi32
West Beach, NC is already getting gusts to tropical storm force and periodic sustained winds above 30mph.
Irene probably will not strengthen much if any before landfall based on MIMIC which reveals a slowly decaying core. On the flip side, Irene is and will probably remain massive.
Quoting Levi32:


Right, the models are seeing the water. It's hard to tighten up the core of a dried-out hurricane as large as this though, and the Gulf Stream is very thin. The models may be responding too quickly to it, but we will see. I've had my forecast for a low-end Cat 3 at landfall for a while now, and I'll stick to it based on what we're seeing today.


Thin yes, but also deep. The maps almost look like she'll track right along it for the next 13 hours until 8am tomorrow morning passing the outer banks, dead smack in the middle of this deep hot current.
Levi, try www.nbcnewyork.com They have live stream. I would think CNN and the Weather Channel may have live stream when it gets close.
this storm is going out to sea!!! forget this storm!!!!!
Research HWRF (purple) does not forecast restrengthing, while the operational does. This is from 06Z, the problem with the research version, it is not timely.


A hurricane is like a race car - even if it flames out its gonna hit something hard and do some damage.
Quoting Levi32:


Right, the models are seeing the water. It's hard to tighten up the core of a dried-out hurricane as large as this though, and the Gulf Stream is very thin. The models may be responding too quickly to it, but we will see. I've had my forecast for a low-end Cat 3 at landfall for a while now, and I'll stick to it based on what we're seeing today.


Irene should continue weakening, I highly doubt we will see Irene make landfall as a category 3, and based on what the NHC said about Irene not transitioning its highest winds to the surface, I would expect NC to get a wind maximum of category 1 strength if the eye wall actually makes landfall. However, hours of tropical storm strength winds with gusts to hurricane force should cover a rather large area near the coast.

To me its clear that Irene reaching major hurricane status again is quite unlikely.

Although Irene is suffering from dry air intrusion, that's only relative to preventing growth, its kinda hard to call a hurricane dried out. That's sort of oxymoron-ish, lol.

Someone posted earlier that all the birds were gone from their area around New York or Jersey. If the birds are GONE and everything is quiet... that's not a good sign.

In Beaumont, Tx for Hurricane Rita... our trees were filled with birds that fled from western Louisiana. The birds KNEW and evacuated to safer areas.

If the birds are gone and you see no squirrels... everything seems quiet and still... then I would do what THEY are doing. Call your friends further West and see if their trees are unusually full of birds. If so, then consider leaving and going where the birds went. They sense the weather and won't stay in an unsafe environment.
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
alright keep ure panties on jesus christ im intitled to my opinion and my opinion is that irene will be downgraded to a weak cat one unless she can get her act back to gether wich i find highly unlikely theres no need for name calling were mostly all profecionals here


Finally. A funny post...yeesh
Quoting Levi32:


Right, the models are seeing the water. It's hard to tighten up the core of a dried-out hurricane as large as this though, and the Gulf Stream is very thin. The models may be responding too quickly to it, but we will see. I've had my forecast for a low-end Cat 3 at landfall for a while now, and I'll stick to it based on what we're seeing today.


Agree. Just don't see anything (except possibly dry air) that will stop at least some restrengthening
1149. franck
Irene was shot...Bobby, Irene was shot!!!
Quoting NavarreMark:


Yep. He's had enough beans for now.

Howdy Cosmic.

Hope your staying safe. That means I hope your Being Safe.


How peculiar that most of us on this blog enjoy each other's sense of humor and quote the same old, classic and whacky movies!
Isn't the storm surge much greater when a storm is coming in perpendicular to the coast? Since Irene is basically skirting the coast, wouldn't that lessen storm surge concerns for most of the coast (except for RI and Conn)?

Hurricanes #1 killer is storm surge. This entire situation reminds me of Ike, except off the US coast instead of in the Gulf of Mexico. Irene, even though its a Category 2, is generating massive swells and will be generating Isabel-style surge to North Carolina, I suspect that the effects will be similar. The thing is, Irene is massive, and probably pretty high up on the IKE Scale. This is a very serious situation, and further proof why the current Hurricane scale should be discarded for one that takes in account both the wind and surge. Ike and Irene are absolute proof of that.
Wow, i just LOL at that VA beach guy on TWC. He will wish he changed his mind in 24 hours.
anybody got a link to Oz's chase?

1155. Gorty
To those who say people are hyping this up. Guess what? Remember that ice storm in 2008? People were hyping that up too? Well it DID play out! Sure the hype was useless for me, I just got plain rain but many other areas got clobbered with the crippling ice storm.

So for some, the hype was right and for others the hype was wrong.
Invest 91L is 35mph
Hi Cyber, nice to see you on the blog.
1159. Levi32
Quoting ecupirate:
Levi & Others

Here is a live local news stream for Eastern NC

Link


Thanks a lot.
Quoting TexasGulf:
Someone posted earlier that all the birds were gone from their area around New York or Jersey. If the birds are GONE and everything is quiet... that's not a good sign.

In Beaumont, Tx for Hurricane Rita... our trees were filled with birds that fled from western Louisiana. The birds KNEW and evacuated to safer areas.

If the birds are gone and you see no squirrels... everything seems quiet and still... then I would do what THEY are doing. Call your friends further West and see if their trees are unusually full of birds. If so, then consider leaving and going where the birds went. They sense the weather and won't stay in an unsafe environment.


Yeah i seen that post. Calm before the storm.
1161. Melagoo
Quoting TexasGulf:
Someone posted earlier that all the birds were gone from their area around New York or Jersey. If the birds are GONE and everything is quiet... that's not a good sign.

In Beaumont, Tx for Hurricane Rita... our trees were filled with birds that fled from western Louisiana. The birds KNEW and evacuated to safer areas.

If the birds are gone and you see no squirrels... everything seems quiet and still... then I would do what THEY are doing. Call your friends further West and see if their trees are unusually full of birds. If so, then consider leaving and going where the birds went. They sense the weather and won't stay in an unsafe environment.
That is because the are all still intouch with Mother Earth we lost that ability long ago
My neighbor just brought in his 25 ft boat his family in Wilmington was holding... couple of cars came to my other neighbor's family from Wilmington area came here and brought in suitcases. At least we got special garage to store our boat here...
did they ban him?
does any one have a link to a live cam off the coast of NC?
Quoting Melagoo:
That is because the are all still intouch with Mother Earth we lost that ability long ago


Aren't birds sensitive to changes in atmospheric pressure?
1166. jonelu
Quoting Tazmanian:
did they ban him?
I dont know but I reported him 6 times..
1167. Levi32
Quoting Jedkins01:


Irene should continue weakening, I highly doubt we will see Irene make landfall as a category 3, and based on what the NHC said about Irene not transitioning its highest winds to the surface, I would expect NC to get a wind maximum of category 1 strength if the eye wall actually makes landfall. However, hours of tropical storm strength winds with gusts to hurricane force should cover a rather large area near the coast.

To me its clear that Irene reaching major hurricane status again is quite unlikely.

Although Irene is suffering from dry air intrusion, that's only relative to preventing growth, its kinda hard to call a hurricane dried out. That's sort of oxymoron-ish, lol.



It's very bad to assume that the winds at flight-level over the water won't come cascading down to the surface over the land as turbulence increases. If it's 950mb, Cat 3 gusts could find themselves hitting the surface. It's not wise to play this down, even if it is not upgraded later today.
Shear and dry air continues to pummel Irene's core......

To me, I don't see any way Irene can organize itself and spin out the dry air enough to re-obtain Major status....

I fully expect Irene to make landfall as a strong Cat 2 storm. But because of the tremendous size of Irene, this STILL will be a record breaking storm in several area's!

I wish those in harms way the best of luck!

Here is an image (water vapor) which shows Irene allowing dry air to entrain into the core.......

Picture Irene as a plow, from her storm surge, then picture the entire time 60+ mph winds keeping all that water out in front of the "plow" from escaping.

This effect, combined with the size of the system, slow forward speed, abnormally high tides.

There is no over hyping this system, it is as they say, "Once in a lifetime".
Quoting Tazmanian:
did they ban him?


Ahhhh, we finially have the REAL Taz. Good to have you back on.
1171. Gorty
Idk to you downcasters, more and more expert weaher forecasters are agreeing with each other for me in western Mass for winds to be over 40 and 50 mph with higher gusts... Gusts don't know yet, right now could be 60-80 or more mph
Quoting BobinTampa:
Isn't the storm surge much greater when a storm is coming in perpendicular to the coast? Since Irene is basically skirting the coast, wouldn't that lessen storm surge concerns for most of the coast (except for RI and Conn)?



Parts of North Carolina are perpendicular to Irene. Some of the Barriers are aligned west southwest to east northeast which would be perdicular if the storm was moving NNW, but shes movin North right now.
Quoting Melagoo:
That is because the are all still intouch with Mother Earth we lost that ability long ago


When my cat ran to the basement right before the earthquake a few days ago in VA I became a firm believer in animals knowing that stuff will happen before we do.
1174. LargoFl
Washington d.c would anyone know how bad the flooding would be inside the city itself?
obx cams
Quoting Gorty:
To those who say people are hyping this up. Guess what? Remember that ice storm in 2008? People were hyping that up too? Well it DID play out! Sure the hype was useless for me, I just got plain rain but many other areas got clobbered with the crippling ice storm.

So for some, the hype was right and for others the hype was wrong.


Indeed. I imagine forecasting Ice accumulation in specific areas is very difficult. The amount we saw in 2008 takes a pretty special setup with the Temperatures. It was one of the most beautiful things i've ever witnessed when i woke up in the morning, but I was also without power for over two weeks.
Unless it turns SHARP NE all the sudden, Irene will landfall between SC/NC and Morehead City.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=4 1013

Frying Pan Shoals
Levi. Check 4km IR Arent the cloud tops cooling again?

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?r es=4km&banner=uhmet&chnl=ir&domain=asb&size=large& period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goeseast&overlay =off&animtype=flash
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:



1181. Levi32
Quoting asgolfr999:
Levi. Check 4km IR Arent the cloud tops cooling again?


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.
1182. Gorty
Looks like a clear NNE motion to me.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Unless it turns SHARP NE all the sudden, Irene will landfall between SC/NC and Morehead City.


Is that on track or farther west than the models said?
1185. LargoFl
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:



thanks for posting that pic, way too many people think a cat 1 or 2 isnt all that bad....it IS
Link

Cape Hatteras on a beautiful day taken in 2009. I can't even begin to imagine what this storm is going to feel like.
Quoting Levi32:


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.


Yep...Mentioned that earlier. She is more or less maintaining intensity as she isn't firing up any intense cold cloud tops.
Quoting Levi32:


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.


I agree, the dry air is killing her very slowly. She has a big old core though, so I expect a hurricane at landfall.
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Look at the SST maps.

Look at her projected path.

The puffs of convection come from Hot SST's.

Her surge and windfield is plowing the fresh hot Gulf Stream into every bay up the east coast.

That water is almost as warm as the Gulf itself until you pass the Outer Banks.

The models are seeing this.


Could be, but my understanding is that because hurricanes are so turbulent and mix up water from the colder depths, the net result is cooler water.

Second, the job of a hurricane is to suck the heat out of the top 300 feet of water or so, and send it packing way high aloft above the troposphere.

Third, blowing air causes water to cool through evaporation.

I'm not disagreeing but I'm seeing increased current velocity, not warmer water temperatures, such as on the RTOFS web page.
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE IS
BECOMING MORE VISIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER, AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA FROM NOAA AND THE US AIR FORCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE REDUCED TO 90 KNOTS OR 170 KM/H. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY
DEPICTS DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF IRENE WHICH POSSIBLY
EXPLAINS WHY THE HURRICANE HASN'T INTENSIFIED. IRENE IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H).

B. PROGNOSTIC

IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AT WHICH TIME THE STORM WILL BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THEREAFTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
TWO FACTORS IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION WITH LAND
WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF IRENE AS IT MOVES ALONG
OR VERY NEAR THE US EAST COAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER,
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT
BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.

THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK.
DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM
SURGE THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACT COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES
CLOSE TO IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
26/18Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50
27/06Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50
27/18Z 250 200 120 170 120 100 50 75 80 80 50 50
28/06Z 260 220 120 150 120 120 50 75 50 50 15 35
28/18Z 270 220 120 130 120 120 75 60 30 30 10 10
29/06Z 270 250 120 115 120 120 75 0 10 5 0 0
29/18Z 270 250 100 85 30 25 10 15 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/06Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END HATT/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
Can see the dry air on RGB really well....

1194. Levi32
Realistically the difference between a 105mph storm and a 115mph storm here is almost nil. Irene is going to have roughly the same impacts on the eastern seaboard regardless of what she does tonight. It's fine-tuning of forecasting right now. I'm not moving from 115mph yet simply because there is still a chance for some reorganization, and I've had that forecast for a while. That said, it is hard to get a big one like Irene to re-tighten. Igor had this problem and never recovered. The really massive storms like this won't stay very strong unless they are in the Caribbean. It's impossible for them not to entrain lots of dry air anywhere else.
Quoting IceCoast:


Indeed. I imagine forecasting Ice accumulation in specific areas is very difficult. The amount we saw in 2008 takes a pretty special setup with the Temperatures. It was one of the most beautiful things i've ever witnessed when i woke up in the morning, but I was also without power for over two weeks.


I hate to even try to compare the two--but personally, I would rather be out of power after a hurricane than out of power in the FREEZING weather of an ice storm.
1196. junie1
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible
1197. bwat
The way its looking now, is the center of Irene going to pass over, just to the east, or just to the west of the Albemarle Sound? I know any input is an opinion, I will listen to NHC for official forecast. But the track mentioned about is going to make a HUGE difference on the impact I recieve here at home.
1198. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:


I agree, the dry air is killing her very slowly. She has a big old core though, so I expect a hurricane at landfall.


She will be a hurricane right up to New England.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





Another picture. This is why this storm should be taken VERY seriously.
I'm estimating this Buoy is currently 150 to 200 miles WNW of Irene's center.

Quoting junie1:
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible


Wouldn't saying it looks horrible be a good thing?
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shearing it to pieces.

1203. 900MB
Despite potential dry air intrusion from the NW, the Funktop, Rainbow, IR presentations are getting more organized.
Anyone have latest recon data?
Pressure is rising which is good news. We all hope that trend continues. I think the main threat from Irene is the heavy rain over an already soaked northeast. North of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia Irene will resemble a very strong and very wet noreaster.

Epic flooding of rivers is a real danger. But I don't think tides and wind north of Virginia will be nearly as bad as was feared.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another picture. This is why this storm should be taken VERY seriously.


If it's anything like that, then this storm would be once in a lifetime.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shear it to pieces.



The only way I see anything more than a TD from 91L is if it gets left behind by the trough, which is unlikely.
Live video of Irene from the International Space Station coming up.
1208. Gorty
Quoting junie1:
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible


Because they FINALLY realize that with the huge wind field, sooo many people are threatened with downed trees and power lines.
Quoting thelmores:
Shear and dry air continues to pummel Irene's core......

To me, I don't see any way Irene can organize itself and spin out the dry air enough to re-obtain Major status....

I fully expect Irene to make landfall as a strong Cat 2 storm. But because of the tremendous size of Irene, this STILL will be a record breaking storm in several area's!

I wish those in harms way the best of luck!

Here is an image (water vapor) which shows Irene allowing dry air to entrain into the core.......



She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.
1210. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shear it to pieces.



That one, been watching the area since I got my power back, a spawn of an ULL, the same one that was shearing 98L.
Quoting Gorty:


Because they FINALLY realize that with the huge wind field, sooo many people are threatened with downed trees and power lines.


The huge wind field will be there regardless.
1212. Patrap
More Darwin Candidates:

*Apologies if this has already been posted, busy board

* Commercial TV, so you get a small commercial at first

http://www.wesh.com/r-video/28983987/detail.html
Quoting Levi32:


She will be a hurricane right up to New England.
are you sure about that
Quoting SCwannabe:


She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.


I am going with Levi. Hurricane all the way to New England.
1216. Dennis8
NEW YORK (AP) — Nearly 300,000 people were ordered Friday to evacuate flood-prone areas and subways, buses and trains prepared to shut down a day later as Hurricane Irene steamed toward New York, the most powerful storm to target the city in decades.

It was the first time the nation's largest city was evacuated. And never before has the entire mass transit system been shuttered because of a storm. Despite the unknowns of how the city would react, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he was confident people would get out of the storm's way.

"Waiting until the last minute is not a smart thing to do," Bloomberg said. "This is life-threatening."
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Unless it turns SHARP NE all the sudden, Irene will landfall between SC/NC and Morehead City.


I hope Grandpa bailed from Atlantic Beach.

Ocracoke Island NC Fri 8.26.11 4pmimg src="Photobucket">
1218. FLdewey
Even mets are turning on the media hype...



According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "The notion of a storm surge to 11 feet in New York City is unfounded."
"This is not a category 3 or 4 hurricane moving in from the southeast at northern New Jersey, but rather a category 1 or 2 storm that will be weakening moving northward," Sosnowski added.
The storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above normal, with parts of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Long Island enduring a 3- to 6-foot surge.
Further worsening the situation will be pounding waves and tides that are astronomically higher due to Sunday's new moon.
It is not just the beaches that line the Atlantic Ocean that are bracing for coastal flooding, but also neighboring bays and sounds.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect that these smaller inlets will experience an even greater rise in water than the nearby Atlantic beaches.

Bottom line: This is not the day after tomorrow.
The good thing about Irene is that the worst of her storm surge is going to move parallel to the coastline. If she moves a little farther west and some south facing beaches get her eastern eye wall, it won't be pretty. Just hoping that by the time she reaches Long Island and places in that region that her storm surge will have lost some steam.
1220. Patrap
1221. barbamz
Recons: Kermit just startet from Tampa to join AF-308.
Quoting FLdewey:
Even mets are turning on the media hype...



According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "The notion of a storm surge to 11 feet in New York City is unfounded."
"This is not a category 3 or 4 hurricane moving in from the southeast at northern New Jersey, but rather a category 1 or 2 storm that will be weakening moving northward," Sosnowski added.
The storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above normal, with parts of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Long Island enduring a 3- to 6-foot surge.
Further worsening the situation will be pounding waves and tides that are astronomically higher due to Sunday's new moon.
It is not just the beaches that line the Atlantic Ocean that are bracing for coastal flooding, but also neighboring bays and sounds.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect that these smaller inlets will experience an even greater rise in water than the nearby Atlantic beaches.

This is not the day after tomorrow.


no, but the storm will reach New York on Sunday and that IS the day after tomorrow. What say you now???!!
1223. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you sure about that


It takes a lot of air to fill up a 950mb low that is 800 miles wide. Baroclinic influence also looks favorable to keep the storm from weakening quite as rapidly as usual.
Elsewhere on the planet.....

Tropical storm Talas is taking the dry air bullet for Super Typhoon Nanmadol. The reward for Talas? Dancing to a Fujiwara beat and a one sided dinner for two a couple of days ahead.

Nanmadol (or Mina as she SHOULD be called right now should hopefully recurve and miss Japan completely about a week from now... Maybe the Fujiwara will pull Mina East a bit... But luck's not been on their side and it's not been that kind of year for Japan has it?

Keep a close eye on this Super system.

Link
Quoting HurricaneHAM:


Where do you see this warning? I'm in Wake Forest/Raleigh and I'm seeing this on NWS--20 to 40mph wind.


I have the same thing:

A WIND ADVISORY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1225 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO BRING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

.STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT...AND EASTERN SANDHILLS OF NC ON
SATURDAY.

NCZ008>010-025-026-041-077-088-270400-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WI.Y.0006.110827T1000Z-110828T0400Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE-HARNE TT-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...
DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH...LILLINGTON...FAYET TEVILLE
1225 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SANDHILLS OF
NC...FROM FAYETTEVILLE AND LILLINGTON...TO RALEIGH AND
DURHAM...TO LOUISBURG AND OXFORD...TO HENDERSON AND WARRENTON.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





Yes, but that's not the image I remember from Ike:

This is...
1227. Walnut
Quoting SCwannabe:


She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.
Cantore doesn't decide where to go - the mets at TWC make the assignments. He is just operating as an onsite reporter. Is he overly dramatic? Maybe - but last night Irene looked to put a real hurting on NYC - and still may do so. People take him seriously.
1228. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, but the storm will reach New York on Sunday and that IS the day after tomorrow. What say you now???!!


I say I picked the wrong disaster movie comparison.

Let's just hope the NYC levees hold.
1229. P451
Manhattan Forecast from NWS

SUNDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 70 MPH...
BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
85 MPH...DECREASING TO 80 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.


Raritan Bay (the waters due south of Manhattan stretching to NJ)

SUN
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 45 TO 65 KT...
BECOMING S 55 TO 75 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 85 KT...
INCREASING TO 90 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 23
FT...BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like colder cloud tops building back over the center and may form a new eyewall soon.
Quoting Landfall2004:


I hate to even try to compare the two--but personally, I would rather be out of power after a hurricane than out of power in the FREEZING weather of an ice storm.


Ya it definitely was not pleasant at that time of year. Funny thing was I had just flown back into Boston home for School vacation and i was back for no more then 2 hours before the power went out for 2 weeks lol! A nice welcoming back the Northeast..
1232. Dennis8
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





Lived through it....12 hours TS winds 6 hours Hurricane force winds 2weeks no electricity..2 miles north downtown Houston. I have been in 12 Tropical systems and this would had a Howling wind Like I have never heard and Celia in 1970 was 161 mph.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


I am going with Levi. Hurricane all the way to New England.


Even if it's not...the NHC will say it's so the people up there won't let their gaurd down.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


When my cat ran to the basement right before the earthquake a few days ago in VA I became a firm believer in animals knowing that stuff will happen before we do.


After Gustav I saw this same thing happen...only with horses and tornadoes. My husband and I were outside securing our back porch roof when I noticed about 20 of our neighbors horses run to the middle of the field and stand in a tight bunch.
I came in and took our daughter to the laundry room (safest room in our house). About 3 minutes later my husband, who thought I was nuts and was still outside, saw three tornadoes come over the top of the trees, split in the air over our pasture, and take out the neighbors barn and horse trailers, my elderly neighbors roof, and a storage building across the road.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





It ain't the wind...it's the water...Irene is a big girl..she'll be pushing a lot of water.
Quoting Levi32:


It takes a lot of air to fill up a 950mb low that is 800 miles wide. Baroclinic influence also looks favorable to keep the storm from weakening quite as rapidly as usual.


Dr. Masters predicts it will weaken rapidly (up in the blog entry).
1237. P451
Quoting FLdewey:


I say I picked the wrong disaster movie comparison.

Let's just hope the NYC levees hold.


Bulkheads. We got bulkheads here. Water rises six feet? Water comes over bulkheads. Most of Manhattan has quite some elevation to it however.
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:
Picture Irene as a plow, from her storm surge, then picture the entire time 60+ mph winds keeping all that water out in front of the "plow" from escaping.

This effect, combined with the size of the system, slow forward speed, abnormally high tides.

There is no over hyping this system, it is as they say, "Once in a lifetime".
Love that analogy! They should use it on the weather channel
1240. wpb
recon crew what happened to irene the other day she had makeup on. today she forgot
Quoting Tazmanian:



i no you guys no that am the real me but do the admins no

I'm sure Keeper has told them Taz I put #4 on ignore earlier like alot of us did. We knew he was a troll
Quoting LowerCal:
Live video of Irene from the International Space Station coming up.


Thanks for posting that! Incredible.
1243. P451
Quoting Levi32:


It takes a lot of air to fill up a 950mb low that is 800 miles wide. Baroclinic influence also looks favorable to keep the storm from weakening quite as rapidly as usual.


Many don't seem to understand the baroclinic situation when these storms head north and how it helps a system maintain intensity and broaden it's northern windfield substantially.
Quoting Walnut:
Cantore doesn't decide where to go - the mets at TWC make the assignments. He is just operating as an onsite reporter. Is he overly dramatic? Maybe - but last night Irene looked to be looking to put a real hurting on NYC - and still may do so. People take him seriously.


TWC is a bunch of drama queens. I used to like them until they became part of NBC.
09L/H/I/C1
RI FLAG (off)
RD FLAG (off)
MARK
33.32n/76.92w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Irene will probably be retired just because of all the evacs she has caused, and NYC shutting down....
People, watch this video of storm surge and you'll see how dangerous storm surge is... btw, that cameraman is an idiot.....

Youtube:
Link
Quoting 900MB:
Despite potential dry air intrusion from the NW, the Funktop, Rainbow, IR presentations are getting more organized.
Anyone have latest recon data?



Getting close...

20:28:30Z 31.267N 77.883W 696.7 mb
(~ 20.57 inHg) 2,860 meters
(~ 9,383 feet) 967.5 mb
(~ 28.57 inHg) - From 329° at 76 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 87.4 mph)


Link
I see NHC says storm is weakening, and not forcast to increase again. must be like a strong tropical storm or something because of no
eye. never seen a cane without an eye.
is Irene still moving due north & is she gonna make landfall further south and west now?
1251. Levi32
Quoting AllStar17:


Dr. Masters predicts it will weaken rapidly (up in the blog entry).


And it will be weakening, but a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 from North Carolina to New England is not rapid, or as rapid as usual.
Just began raining and thunder in central Raleigh.
Been out all day, so I'm behind on my model runs. Just realized the Euro develops an African wave about 96-120 hours out into this at 240...



Also has a TS in the Bay of Campeche.
Quoting Levi32:


It takes a lot of air to fill up a 950mb low that is 800 miles wide. Baroclinic influence also looks favorable to keep the storm from weakening quite as rapidly as usual.


Can you dive into this a little bit further. I've heard a few people say it but don't really understand it. Does it have to do with the storms forward motion? Another feature in the atmosphere that will keep the pressure gradient strong?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
People, watch this video of Irene's surge (idk where) and you'll see how dangerous storm surge is... btw, that cameraman is an idiot.....

Youtube:
Link


You really need to stop with the misinformation.

"Brought to you by extreme storm chaser/cameraman Jim Edds and his famous "surge cam," included here, in sequence, are Hurricanes Rita (Key West 2005), Fabian (Bermuda 2003), Katrina (2005), Isabel (2003). "
1256. Dennis8
4:32 PM 80.6 °F 88.1 °F 78.8 °F 94% 29.72 in 2.5 mi East 15.0 mph 24.2 mph 0.07 in Rain Heavy Rain

History for Beaufort, NC
09L/H/I/C1
RI FLAG (off)
RD FLAG (off)
MARK
33.32n/76.92w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Latest radar is showing the beginning of a more northeastward turn.
Quoting MrstormX:
Irene will probably be retired just because of all the evacs she has caused, and NYC shutting down....

And the $1.1 billion in damage caused so far.
ISS latest pass of irene seen in the pick iss her eye and the dry air
1261. P451
Quoting muddertracker:


It ain't the wind...it's the water...Irene is a big girl..she'll be pushing a lot of water.


The wind will be a dangerous situation up here. Many forecasts have sustained 65-85 gusting to 100 along the immediate beaches. 45-65 gusting to 85 inland areas.

That will take down a lot of trees thus blocking roads and taking out the power.

We're not worried about direct structural damage from wind. We are worried about trees falling on structures, cars, powerlines, blocking roads.

Up to 15" of rain on top of ground still soaked from some fairly torrential rain events in recent days and weeks. Trees are coming down no way around it.

Storm surge is of concern for coastal regions. The primary doom scenario is if the water comes high enough over the battery park bulkhead in Manhattan it only has a few hundred feet at most to reach the subway entrances down there. If the water makes it in those entrances it will spread underground quite quickly as tunnels are 25-75 feet down. The water will spread into other corridors such as sewage and electrical potentially knocking out the grid.

So, that's a real big concern, and we just hope it doesn't get there.

6 foot storm surge with 25-30 foot waves on Raritan Bay just south of Manhattan is no joke.

A lot to worry about. Folks are mostly prepared. Officials are shutting down a lot of the transportation corridors to avoid problems with people getting stranded.

I'm more than prepared. Overkill in fact.
1262. Gorty
It could just brush the outer banks that and combined with her being further away from the dry air... watch out.
If this setup holds true, the East Coast could be under the gun again in 10-15 days. Long way out, of course.

im not really concered with the wave the euro and gfs develop. both take it out to see in all of their runs most likely our first BIG cape verder that recurves.
Quoting Levi32:


And it will be weakening, but a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 from North Carolina to New England is not rapid, or as rapid as usual.


Well, what if it weakens to a Cat 1 as it passes North Carolina? Does that then mean a Tropical Storm for New England?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And the $1.1 billion in damage caused so far.


Yah, the flooding in PR is crazy...of course why am I telling you this, you know it first hand. :)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You really need to stop with the misinformation.

"Brought to you by extreme storm chaser/cameraman Jim Edds and his famous "surge cam," included here, in sequence, are Hurricanes Rita (Key West 2005), Fabian (Bermuda 2003), Katrina (2005), Isabel (2003). "
I EDITED IT. I AM NOT MISINFORMATING PEOPLE ON PURPOSE!!!
1268. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And the $1.1 billion in damage caused so far.


People don't even know that as a Tropical Storm she raked Puerto Rico. They don't even know. So how they're laughing about a 100mph Hurricane that has grown to incredible size I just don't know.

But, whatever, you can't fix stupid as they say. And as I say I can only control what I do and know - not what other people do.

1269. Dennis8
4:13 PM 77.0 °F - 71.6 °F 83% 29.81 in 8.0 mi East 11.5 mph 21.9 mph 0.04 in Rain Light Rain
History for Hatteras, NC
1270. CCkid00
Quoting AllStar17:


Dr. Masters predicts it will weaken rapidly (up in the blog entry).


no, actually he says...."the storm is too large to weaken quickly."
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, but the storm will reach New York on Sunday and that IS the day after tomorrow. What say you now???!!

hahahahahhahahahahaha LMFAO!!!!!!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
People, watch this video of storm surge and you'll see how dangerous storm surge is... btw, that cameraman is an idiot.....

Youtube:
Link


NOT IRENE'S STORM SURGE. THE COMMENT HAD BEEN EDITED.
Quoting Levi32:


And it will be weakening, but a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 from North Carolina to New England is not rapid, or as rapid as usual.


Regardless of the wind speed the surge will still be very intense
Quoting MississippiWx:
If this setup holds true, the East Coast could be under the gun again in 10-15 days. Long way out, of course.

what about the gulf coast? theyve been protected ever since the beginning of the season. will they be protected the entire season?
it is sad that people expecting a strong hurricane and will not believe forcast too much future storms
Quoting MississippiWx:
If this setup holds true, the East Coast could be under the gun again in 10-15 days. Long way out, of course.



Euro shows another system in the long range on the 12Z. Pretty far north, but a long ways out.

Quoting Levi32:


And it will be weakening, but a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 from North Carolina to New England is not rapid, or as rapid as usual.


Wrong.

Dr. Masters said: "With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday.

See above.
Quoting MrstormX:


Yah, the flooding in PR is crazy...of course why am I telling you this, you know it first hand. :)
Quoting P451:


People don't even know that as a Tropical Storm she raked Puerto Rico. They don't even know. So how they're laughing about a 100mph Hurricane that has grown to incredible size I just don't know.

But, whatever, you can't fix stupid as they say. And as I say I can only control what I do and know - not what other people do.


Well, half of the damage was to the Bahamas, but still a big load of damage.
Quoting IceCoast:


Euro shows another system in the long range on the 12Z. Pretty far north, but a long ways out.



Yeah, I posted it a few posts back.
Quoting bayoubrotha:


Wrong.

Dr. Masters said: "With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday.

See above.


As far as I can see, that is EXACTLY what Levi just said.
Question, could Irene's storm surge be diminished by interaction with the Outer Banks?
recon found 950
1283. Dennis8
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the gulf coast? theyve been protected ever since the beginning of the season. will they be protected the entire season?


Ridge breaking down next weekend..finally. We are expecting possible all time historical high temperature record tomorrow ( 109 is record) as a side effect of Irene in Houston.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the gulf coast? theyve been protected ever since the beginning of the season. will they be protected the entire season?


Who knows, but the Texas death ridge is still in place on the model comparison map. As long as it's there, the US Gulf Coast will be hard pressed to receive any sort of significant tropical activity.
It appears that Irene will strugle to maintain cat 1
status before landfall. She will be just a big rainmaker for the east coast.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And the $1.1 billion in damage caused so far.


Good point!
Quoting TerraNova:
Question, could Irene's storm surge be diminished by interaction with the Outer Banks?


Doubt it...Outer Banks are low lying, just like the Bahamas.
1288. HCW

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I EDITED IT. I AM NOT MISINFORMATING PEOPLE ON PURPOSE!!!


mis-what people??

Going to my school's game... bringing camera in case something happened.
1291. Dennis8
Houston NWS AFD

THE 384 HOUR GFS KEEPS A 500 MB WEAKNESS OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION. THE WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 43
Winds are getting stronger, probably because of this one rain band moving through.

20-25 mph sustained, 30-35 mph frequent gusts, and 40-45 mph infrequent gusts.
1293. Remek
Quoting stormtopz1:
I see NHC says storm is weakening, and not forcast to increase again. must be like a strong tropical storm or something because of no
eye. never seen a cane without an eye.


No complete/visible eye, but the CoC is still hanging tough and generating new hot towers.
In Williamsburg Va, some light winds and occasional rain.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the gulf coast? theyve been protected ever since the beginning of the season. will they be protected the entire season?



So far so good, let's just hope it stays that way for all of us. But yes some have said we should get one.
so sad when the storm weakens and not forcast to strong again while the media keeps beating the drums of doom!
...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....


5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 31.7°N 77.4°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Quoting BobinTampa:


mis-what people??

I posted the youtube video, and commented this is surge from Irene. But I saw that it belonged to famous storms, Irene so I edited it. Storm surge can still be dangerous.
Quoting BobinTampa:


mis-what people??



Something about four people mating? I couldn't figure it out.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO
SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG
ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...
BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE
BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H...
AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Quoting weatherrx:
It appears that Irene will strugle to maintain cat 1
status before landfall. She will be just a big rainmaker for the east coast.


i know, seen noreaster's like irene, and they never evacuate LOL
I disagree.

Cape May surge..

1304. zawxdsk
Quoting P451:


The wind will be a dangerous situation up here. Many forecasts have sustained 65-85 gusting to 100 along the immediate beaches. 45-65 gusting to 85 inland areas.

That will take down a lot of trees thus blocking roads and taking out the power.

We're not worried about direct structural damage from wind. We are worried about trees falling on structures, cars, powerlines, blocking roads.

Up to 15" of rain on top of ground still soaked from some fairly torrential rain events in recent days and weeks. Trees are coming down no way around it.


Amen to all of that. I work at a logistics/transportation company and we are getting as much equipment away from here as possible. I don't expect that we're looking at the equipment being damaged or tipped as we're looking at trees and power lines falling on it.

Just as bad is being blocked into an area where we cannot access our stuff. We need it to make money and help ship items back into the coast because these areas are going to need a lot to recover. We do that!
For those posting images hotlinked from americanwx.com they have disabled hotlinking so all we see is a black box. Please save the image and upload to something like photobucket or imageshack.
NEEWWWW BLOGGGGG!
Quoting P451:


Many don't seem to understand the baroclinic situation when these storms head north and how it helps a system maintain intensity and broaden it's northern windfield substantially.


forward speed alone can often be fast enough play a role as well
1308. Levi32
Quoting IceCoast:


Can you dive into this a little bit further. I've heard a few people say it but don't really understand it. Does it have to do with the storms forward motion? Another feature in the atmosphere that will keep the pressure gradient strong?


Well because the shortwave is going to be passing up over southern Canada, encountering strong resistance from the Bermuda ridge over the northwest Atlantic. This will be creating a strong jet just north of New England, and if you look at the jet, it is in a great position to exhaust air from Irene's surface low via the right entrance region. Irene will be approaching New England by that time (48 hours on this GFS image). This should slow the pressure rises a bit, and I believe this is why the global models show Irene remaining very strong until she crosses Long Island.

Quoting Levi32:


It's very bad to assume that the winds at flight-level over the water won't come cascading down to the surface over the land as turbulence increases. If it's 950mb, Cat 3 gusts could find themselves hitting the surface. It's not wise to play this down, even if it is not upgraded later today.


That is true, never really thought about that, very strange though, do you have any idea why Irene has had such low pressure, yet the wind is not transitioning down to the surface, and also why the inner core has struggled so bad?
Hurricane Irene NOT as bad as predicted. NY subway smart rats will remain in their protected habitat and will not invade the streets. They have a very good adaptability potential, much better than us. They live from us and with us in a paceful way. Danger (from the storm) will diminish as time passes...
Quoting Bluestorm5:


NOT IRENE'S STORM SURGE. THE COMMENT HAD BEEN EDITED.
1312. HCW

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I disagree.



With what?
erased by me... look at new blog for comment.
please don't call hurricane without an eye, all hurricane have eye
Myrtle Beach Cam:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtleb each/
1317. Dennis8
IKE FACTS

Ike made U.S. landfall at Galveston, Texas, on Sept. 13 at 2:10am CDT (0710 UTC), as a high Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) and a central pressure of 950 mbar (28.05 inHg). The 2:00 am NHC advisory cited tropical storm and hurricane force winds extending 275 miles (443 km) and 120 miles (190 km), respectively, from the center. Around 3:00 a.m. CDT (0800 UTC), it passed over San Leon, Texas and made its final landfall near Baytown, Texas around 4:00 a.m. CDT (0900 UTC).

IRENE FACTS
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb...28.08 inches.

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles...150 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles.
Quoting weatherrx:
It appears that Irene will strugle to maintain cat 1
status before landfall. She will be just a big rainmaker for the east coast.


She will be JUST A BIG RAINMAKER for the east coast? Have you not been listening to those on here like Dr. Masters, Levi, and others? Let me see if I can make it perfectly plain.....STORM SURGE is extreme danger regardless of storm intensity. Clean out your ears and quit minimizing this storm and leading others to let their guard down. When NC and NYC and others further north have no power, sewerage, severe storm damage from water/tornados/high winds, etc....its more than a large rainstorm. They just had that yesterday remember???
Quoting stormtopz1:
please don't call hurricane without an eye, all hurricane have eye


educated much? i think not
Watching a web cam on Myrtle Beach and waves are now breaking at sea wall. About two hours ago they had a pretty wide beach. Conditions are not getting better anytime soon.
Quoting SWLACajun:


She will be JUST A BIG RAINMAKER for the east coast? Have you not been listening to those on here like Dr. Masters, Levi, and others? Let me see if I can make it perfectly plain.....STORM SURGE is extreme danger regardless of storm intensity. Clean out your ears and quit minimizing this storm and leading others to let their guard down. When NC and NYC and others further north have no power, sewerage, severe storm damage from water/tornados/high winds, etc....its more than a large rainstorm. They just had that yesterday remember???


you should stop so much doom gloom when dr master title is "Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely"

geesh


See that HUGE outer band about to break off? Think of that as her "downsizing".

The inner core will be protected from dry air intrusions from by that heavy moisture, while that perfectly symmetrical "core" takes advantage of the Gulf Stream over the next 15 hours until expected landfall tomorrow morning 8am Outer Banks.

The storm won't be "drying out" or "dying" until the rainbow satellite imagery doesn't show those puffs of red and has gone completely yellow.

Expect to see a MUCH smaller looking system form under a beautiful looking symmetrical CDO as she passes over the Gulf Stream overnight tonight.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You really need to stop with the misinformation.

"Brought to you by extreme storm chaser/cameraman Jim Edds and his famous "surge cam," included here, in sequence, are Hurricanes Rita (Key West 2005), Fabian (Bermuda 2003), Katrina (2005), Isabel (2003). "


He's pointing out what storm surge can do, he never said it was specifically from Irene.
1324. skfnek
err on the side of caution when it comes to the surge. Here in Galveston Mr. Ike taught us well as I found my 30' sailboat sitting on its keel in my backyard and leaning on my roof. Fewer things on earth more powerful than moving water. Our thoughts are with all the right coasters, be careful.
1325. Gorty
Quoting stormtopz1:


you should stop so much doom gloom when dr master title is "Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely"

geesh


You didn't read? Masters also said wind damage and power outages, geesh.
1326. JamesSA
The 5pm map is showing NC landfall as a Cat 1...

Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


educated much? i think not


quote "Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely"

no eye = no intense

education not needed for that
Whithout that excess of technology that we use today it is almost impossible for us to survive or to anticipate any storm or another weather event. We have to live in accord with Nature to survive. We have to obey Nature rules (and of course, God rules). If something happen that we lost the satellite signals and other technologies permanently we will have a very big problem to survive... People from several decades ago , and even centuries ago had a better capacity to survive as a society. Owr worst enemy is our society, ourselves... Hurricanes are our friends, our allieds to dstribute energy in Nature.
1329. 996tt
Still looking kind of weak. Any new news. Is TWC still calling this the storm of the century and a worst case scenario? Looks like good news to me.
If you live in Long Island or lower Manhattan, here are a few things to keep in mind;

1) From being in a few hurricanes and tropical storms, when the electricity goes out and the wind is blowing tropical rains... you will NOT be able to see outside except between lightning flashes. If you even think that you might have to go out in the storm (to check on animals, etc...) have a really GOOD flashlight and try to memorize where everything is. Know where the ditches are. Know how to get back to the house. If you can't find your way back blindfolded NOW... don't think about going out.

2) If you live in a possible flooding area and your family will be staying home... make everyone wear GLOW BRACELETS that night. (the kind that comes 3 per package for $1.00). Glow bracelets are water resistant and you can see them easily during a dark night. You at least will be able to see each other if everything goes dark. If you have to evac... you can see where everyone is.

3) If you live in an area with large trees... DONT go out around them. Limbs falling probably cause the 2nd most deaths in hurricanes other than storm surge flooding.

4) If an electrical line is down (they will be all over the place) assume every one of them is live. After tropical storm Allison, several people were electrocuted by either contact with live wires or stepping into a puddle or touching a metal shed on which wires had fallen. If you don't know... then it's "live" until proven otherwise.

5) Animals will be nervous during a storm. Make them comfortable, but don't BOTHER them. Nervous animals can react unexpectedly. Even if the dogs down the street are running loose... maybe call them in out of the storm, but don't assume that they will be calm like normal. Nervous animals can be dangerous.
Quoting stormtopz1:


quote "Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely"

no eye = no intense

education not needed for that


there have been very intense hurricanes in the past with no eye... that doesn't make them NOT a hurricane
1333. zawxdsk
Does anyone else really hate the Mercator Projection that the NHC still uses for its Hurricane Tracking maps. (It's the reason why Greenland is often the size of the United states)

I know it gets complicated to hand-plot maps, but this is the 21st century - map it on a computer and find an appropriate display. Mercator is fine for equatorial areas but at the very least, use Robinson or something once we get about 30 degrees!
Quoting 996tt:
Still looking kind of weak. Any new news. Is TWC still calling this the storm of the century and a worst case scenario? Looks like good news to me.


they do that to scare people to much and media needs sponsor.
1335. P451
Scope of winds is incredible Jersey Shore expecting 65-85 sustained gusting 100. SE Mass expecting 50-60 sustained gusting 70.

That is gigantic.

Quoting weatherjr:
Hurricane Irene NOT as bad as predicted. NY subway smart rats will remain in their protected habitat and will not invade the streets. They have a very good adaptability potential, much better than us. They live from us and with us in a paceful way. Danger (from the storm) will diminish as time passes...


LOL. Will you be watching the storm tonight?, because you might have a surprise in the morning...
Recon has found a couple findings of 950...at very least seems to not be weakening anymore at the moment.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


there have been very intense hurricanes in the past with no eye... that doesn't make them NOT a hurricane


you have to be kidding. LOL

all intense hurricanes have eyes!
Hurricane Warning now in effect for CT shore, still a Hurricane Watch for the rest of southern CT and a Tropical Storm watch for the rest
I think some are giving way too much credit to the Gulf Stream. It's not the only factor we are dealing with. If Irene strengthens any, it will be a minimal gain of 5-10mph. She has already assembled her main weapon and that is the storm surge.
Quoting stormtopz1:


you have to be kidding. LOL

all intense hurricanes have eyes!


It's true. There have been Category 3 hurricanes with no eyes... in fact Irene was one of those at times. A hurricane doesn't need an eye to be a hurricane. 74MPH sustained winds is still a hurricane, eye or no eye.
an intense hurricane = eye

intense hurricane = katrina

Quoting stormtopz1:


you have to be kidding. LOL

all intense hurricanes have eyes!



How do you define intense? What is your determining factor that causes a hurricane to be intense? Cat 3, 4, or 5? You can have intense thunder storms with 60 mph winds be called intense. So why can't a cat 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds be called intense?
NY rats are celebrating a party inside their tunnels. They enjoy the City and the best of all: they enjoy the life and amenities of the NY city without paying any money. Surely, they are more happy than us (including, of course, the people that do not live in NY).
Quoting stormtopz1:
an intense hurricane = eye

intense hurricane = katrina



either way, you were claiming that no eye = no hurricane

"please don't call hurricane without an eye, all hurricane have eye"

but you are still incorrect, as intense hurricanes have and do occur without having a distinct eye
Quoting P451:
Scope of winds is incredible Jersey Shore expecting 65-85 sustained gusting 100. SE Mass expecting 50-60 sustained gusting 70.

That is gigantic.

How long of a duration are they expecting those winds, and how much rainfall in those areas?
testing
Quoting carcar1967:



How do you define intense? What is your determining factor that causes a hurricane to be intense? Cat 3, 4, or 5? You can have intense thunder storms with 60 mph winds be called intense. So why can't a cat 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds be called intense?


a cat 1 is not intense and that is predicted for landfall
If NY rats are in party, NY people should do the same (but watching) , because the worst will NOT succeed
People in the Irenes path: remember GOD, which is compasive...
Quoting TexasGulf:
If you live in Long Island or lower Manhattan, here are a few things to keep in mind;

1)


6. What kind of poisonous snakes live in your habitat? Run down to Goodwill and get some bite-proof boots.
30.0n77.3w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF
30.0n77.4w, 31.2n77.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 25August_6pmGMT and ending 26August_6pmGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 13.8mph(23k/h) on a heading of 355.9degrees(N)
H.Irene was headed toward passage over Ogden,NorthCarolina ~12hours from now
(ILM is WilmingtonInternationalAirport)

Copy&paste 26.5n77.2w-27.7n77.3w, 27.7n77.3w-28.8n77.3w, 28.8n77.3w-30.0n77.4w, 30.0n77.4w-31.2n77.5w, ilm, 30.0n77.4w-34.246n77.768w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 26August_12pmGMT)
Quoting stormtopz1:


a cat 1 is not intense and that is predicted for landfall


but it is still a hurricane, and sustained 74MPH winds ( a minimal category 1) is still pretty intense.
Anybody have the ability to pull up the weather maps for March 13-14, 2010? That weekend a very powerful Nor'easter roared up the east coast. JFK Airport clocked sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts to 73 mph. Rain totals were in the area of 6 inches. There was localized flooding, but the big story was the wind damage. This storm may be useful in trying to predict the damage patterns along the east coast.
1355. JamesSA
Quoting redwagon:


6. What kind of poisonous snakes live in your habitat? Run down to Goodwill and get some bite-proof boots.


Most of the poisonous snakes in Manhattan are wearing 3 piece suits.
The Latest
*Click on images in WU Blog to magnify them (images can be further magnified in the new window by clicking on them)






Quoting MrNatural:
Anybody have the ability to pull up the weather maps for March 13-14, 2010? That weekend a very powerful Nor'easter roared up the east coast. JFK Airport clocked sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts to 73 mph. Rain totals were in the area of 6 inches. There was localized flooding, but the big story was the wind damage. This storm may be useful in trying to predict the damage patterns along the east coast.


the highest winds I have ever experienced from a Nor'Easter was actually December 26th, 2010 which had hurricane force gusts, but Nor'Easters usually always keep their sustained high winds on the coast unlike tropical systems which tend to bring the sustained winds much further inland.
As the cyclone weakened, the blogg site stop!!! wait the next one from the east in the very near future... In any case, be safe.
Quoting MrNatural:
Anybody have the ability to pull up the weather maps for March 13-14, 2010? That weekend a very powerful Nor'easter roared up the east coast. JFK Airport clocked sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts to 73 mph. Rain totals were in the area of 6 inches. There was localized flooding, but the big story was the wind damage. This storm may be useful in trying to predict the damage patterns along the east coast.


What was the time frame for that event though? Irene is much larger and NY will be under it for a much longer time than most nor'easters.
1360. K8eCane
Weather Underground Community I for one am very grateful and thankful that we have Portlight...They will be there when we need them and that is comforting to know.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


the highest winds I have ever experienced from a Nor'Easter was actually December 26th, 2010 which had hurricane force gusts, but Nor'Easters usually always keep their sustained high winds on the coast unlike tropical systems which tend to bring the sustained winds much further inland.


Very true. I bring this up because many bloggers are trying to predict damage without any points of comparison. A very powerful Nor'easter can cause Hurricane like damage along the coast.
1362. Patrap
Quoting stormtopz1:


you should stop so much doom gloom when dr master title is "Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely"

geesh


no doom gloom. Just practical and been through two cat 2 & cat 3 storms. Also can read past Dr. Master's title and actually read the article. Try it and you may get informed, as well info of others on this blog that pretty much concur. When the surge happens and all the damage that comes with it, where will you be with your "no doom gloom geez" flippant comments while others are suffering the effects of Irene?
If much of New York City loses power, How long will the water pressure be able to get water up to the top floors of those apartment buildings?
1366. Patrap
1368. Patrap

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

1369. Patrap
Quoting uptxcoast:
If much of New York City loses power, How long will the water pressure be able to get water up to the top floors of those apartment buildings?


Another question, with the sewers filled to the brim, how long will the toilets on the top floors of those apartment bldgs be able to send down their contents without it spilling out into the city streets?
Quoting SWLACajun:


Another question, with the sewers filled to the brim, how long will the toilets on the top floors of those apartment bldgs be able to send down their contents without it spilling out into the city streets?


Does not sound good. Yuck!!!!
IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

That's great news.
I am just a high school drop out but I can't help but wonder why we even spend a dime sending Hurricane Hunters into storms to get precise measurements when the guys and gals with the degrees resort to assumptions and guesses of the storms intensity when they don't get readings to support their hype.


"Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds."
Dr. Jeff Masters weather blog 3:14 pm GMT 08/26/2011

A couple of quotes from others:

"Although not shown in the official
forecast...Irene could weaken just below hurricane strength before
reaching southern New England."
forecaster Brown/cangialosi


Hurricane Irene Discussion Number 23
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2011

" two hurricane hunter aircraft...one Air Force and one NOAA...are
again tonight supplying very valuable meteorological data to the
National Hurricane Center. Both planes indicate that the central
pressure is gradually falling and is now near 942 mb...but the
winds have not increased yet. The initial intensity is kept at 100
knots at this time."
forecaster Avila

The two hurricane Hunter reports preceding this forcast found maximum surface winds of 70MPH and 90MPH...Heck why not round it up to a nice even 100kts. After all 115mph Cat 3 storm is much scarier than a strong TS or a CAT 1 hurricane. I guess it is fine to ignore the data and fan the flames of fear in the public to keep the herd moving.




1374. Speeky
All the birds in New York are gone. Its dead silent out here in Westchester county. Also why hasn't anyone boarded up their windows?
What is the forecast windshear for Irene until out banks landfall?

patrick
NEW BLOG!
From looking at the recon plots, seems clear to me that Irene does not like landfalls, and want to even avoid the outer banks......

And should this occur, and Irene then head due north, could be worse for the NE!
the tropics are going to be really quiet for quite a while..that high over texas is going to keep anything from getting into the GOM...they expect that high to be there the rest of september..it will briefly move nw into the 4 corners area before retreating once again over texas...so it looks like this hurricane season is just about over for for the GOM ..in october we have the strong cool fronts starting to trickle down and the cool the gulf ssts off...i guess thats a good thing another year we have dodged the BULLET...
Time: 00:34:00Z
Coordinates: 32.2667N 77.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,715 meters (~ 8,907 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 949.6 mb (~ 28.04 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 2° at 5 knots (From the N at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 14.9°C (~ 58.8°F)
Dew Pt: 11.0°C (~ 51.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 11 knots* (~ 12.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data