WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Irene's 1-in-100 year rains trigger deadly flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:00 PM GMT on August 29, 2011

Hurricane Irene is gone, but the huge hurricane's torrential rains have unleashed one of the Northeast's greatest flood disasters. Videos of rampaging rivers in Vermont, New York State, New Jersey, and surrounding states attest to the extreme nature of the great deluge Hurricane Irene brought. Numerous rivers and creeks throughout the Northeast crested above their highest flood stages on record over the past 24 hours. The previous records were mostly set during some of the great hurricanes of 50 - 60 years ago--Hazel of 1954, Connie and Diane of 1955, and Donna of 1960. Vermont, where 3 - 7 inches of rain fell in just twelve hours, was particularly hard-hit. Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. In northern New Jersey and Southeast New York, where soils were already saturated from the region's wettest August on record even before Irene arrived, record flooding was the norm. According to imagery from metstat.com, Irene's rains were a 1-in-100 year event for portions of eight states.


Figure 1. Water levels on Vermont's Otter Creek in Rutland, Vermont crested at 17.21 feet, 3.81' above its previous record, and more than 9 feet above flood stage. Image credit: USGS.

Here are a few of the rivers in the Northeast that set all-time flood height records over the past 24 hours, which I found using our wundermap with the USGS rivers layers turned on:

Mettawee River, Middle Granville, NY
Hoosic River, North Bennington, VT
Saxton River, Saxtons RIver, VT
Schoharie Creek, Gilboa, NY
Esopus Creek, Coldbrook, NY
Passaic River, Millington, NJ
Rockaway River, Boonton, NJ
Pompton River, Pompton Plains, NJ
Millstone RIver, Blackwells Mills, NJ
Assunpink Creek, Trenton, NJ

And here are the unofficial maximum 24-hour rainfall amounts each state received from Irene, as compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

North Carolina: 14.00" Bunyan
Virginia: 12.52" Ft. Eustis
Maryland: 12.96" Plum Point
Delaware: 8.50" Federalsburg
Pennsylvania: 8.00" Goldsboro
New Jersey: 10.20" Wayne
New York: 11.48" Tuxedo Park
Connecticut: 8.70" Burlington
Massachusetts: 9.10" Savoy
Vermont: 7.60" Walden
New Hampshire: 6.09" 5SE Sandwich
Rhode Island: 5.37" Warren
Maine: 6.11" Phillips

Newark, NJ broke its all-time 24-hour precip record with a total of 8.92" (8/27-28)--old record 7.84" on 8/27-28/1971. Also, New York City, Philadelphia, and Newark now have August 2011 as their rainiest month in recorded history. Overall damages from Irene could range from $5 billion to $10 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis, a risk assessment firm that specializes in natural disaster impact. This would put Irene between 13th and 24th place on the list of the most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. Irene is very likely to have its name retired. The multi-billion dollar price tag from Irene puts the year 2011 in first place for the greatest number of billion-dollar disasters in one year, ten. The previous record was nine such disasters, set in 2008.

Irene cuts though barrier island, isolates North Carolina's Outer Banks
Irene's large surge surge and pounding waves breached North Carolina's Pea Island in two places Sunday, cutting U.S. Highway 12 and isolating the Outer Banks from the rest of the world. According to Dr. Rob Young of Western Carolina University, Irene did little damage to the ocean-front homes along North Carolina's Outer Banks, but there was significant soundside flooding impacting many areas of Duck, Kitty Hawk, Collington Village, and Roanoke Island. The $30-plus million dollar beach nourishment project at Nags Head survived the storm, although there has been some loss of sand along the beach.


Figure 2. Hurricane Irene's storm surge and winds carved two new channels through Pea Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks. This cut, near the town of Rodanthe, is the smaller of the two cuts. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland will need to be re-built across these two cuts. Image credit: Western Carolina University.

Tropical Depression 12
Tropical Depression Twelve formed this morning from a strong tropical wave that had moved off the coast of Africa. TD 12 is undergoing some moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong easterly winds, which is keeping most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity limited to the west aide. This shear should relax as TD 12 pulls away from Africa, and allow the storm to become Tropical Storm Katia. Ironically, today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the Gulf Coast, and Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina after that name was retired. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada might be the only land area threatened by TD 12, but it is too early to be confident of this.


Figure 3. Tropical Depression Twelve at 8:10 am EDT August 29, 2011, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

A break in Texas' drought coming
One other area we need to watch later this week is the Gulf of Mexico. A significant shift in the atmospheric circulation is predicted for the region, with the ridge of high pressure that has brought Texas its record heat and drought predicted to shift eastwards and allow a flow of moist, tropical air into the state. A low pressure region is forecast to develop in the Gulf near the coast of Texas on Wednesday or Thursday, and this low will need to be watched for tropical development. The shift in the large scale weather pattern does not signal a permanent end to the Texas drought, but it should bring welcome rains and cooler temperatures to the Lone Star state beginning on Thursday. This will be a relief to the residents of Austin, where the temperature topped out at 112°F yesterday--the hottest day in Austin's recorded history, tied with September 5, 2000. By Labor Day, hot and dry weather will settle back in over the state, but the new ridge of high pressure will be weaker, and temperatures will not be as hot as this week's.

Jeff Masters
Tuttletown Gristmill
Tuttletown Gristmill
Tuttltown Gristmill looking South down the Plattekill.
Bad Break
Bad Break
Closeup

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting disneyfaninnawlins:


I am from New Orleans, heat is something we are used to. Besides there are not long lines in September because kids are back in school. And we visit WDW every year. To each his own? Right?
My favorite time is around the first of December - all decked out for the holidays - kids not yet out of school. ("value" season = HUGE cost savings.)
As for September - again typically low crowds in general. As I am guessing that you already know - the trick is to be at the park at rope drop, take a break during the heat of the day (pool, nap) and back to the parks for the evening. Maybe a little of that pixie dust will keep Katia away (Katia would be a great name for a Disney Villain)

With all the sadness that Irene brought, it is nice to be reminded that there are also good days ahead.
2502. GetReal


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO
Quoting carpentergrl:


Yep, it starts in May and won't go away till sometime in October. However, late July, all of August, and early September are by far the worst.
I lived in NE Ohio before moving here and we would have hot humid days...not weeks or months. Guess that's the price you pay for better winters ;)

My best friend lives in Ohio and she tells me I have no clue what winter is. When I am complaining that it's freezing here because its 32 degrees outside she laughs at me and says, I have several feet of snow and its 2 degrees! You have no idea what cold is! I always tell her I could never live where its cold like that because I am so accustomed to the heat. Its funny how our bodies adjust to different living conditions.
Quoting weathers4me:
Katia will not be a problem for FL or East Coast. The GOM system will most likely move into Mexico or extreme E TX from the looks of the models. Folks enjoy your holiday weekend. Take a break from this blog. LOL


I like your outlook and your advice! U2
Quoting WxLogic:


3K to remove a tree... in my opinion that's a rip off.

In regards the winds, as you might have guessed, it is due to the strength/structure of Irene. To put it simply, on Sat. morning when you experienced the strongest winds, you were in the N to NE quadrant of Irene which was one of the strongest sides, but as she moved further N she began to deteriorate and lost most of her punch closer to the center with the strongest winds now being found further away.
That depends...

Such as needing a crane to lift tree or parts of tree out to avoid further damage to house, etc.
Where's Patrap?
2507. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
That depends...

Such as needing a crane to lift tree or parts of tree out to avoid further damage to house, etc.


Since you put it that way... :)
2508. P451
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.



Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO


It depends what you are assuming is the COC...
2510. P451
Quoting wxobsvps:
Where's Patrap?


Quit the blog apparently.
2511. ackee
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO
I am glad someone else said it that what been seeing this morning cant wait for recon to get better idea where the centre is
Quoting carpentergrl:


Yep, it starts in May and won't go away till sometime in October. However, late July, all of August, and early September are by far the worst.
I lived in NE Ohio before moving here and we would have hot humid days...not weeks or months. Guess that's the price you pay for better winters ;)

Ya got that right! I went North a few years ago to help an elderly relatve. A snow storm came through and I had to dig the car out. I thought to my self really!! Folks got to be crazy to live here!
Is it way to soon to KNOW where TS K is going to be a threat to cont US?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
My favorite time is around the first of December - all decked out for the holidays - kids not yet out of schoo. ("value" season = HUGE cost savings.)
As for September - again typically low crowds in general. As I am guessing that you already know - the trick is to be at the park at rope drop, take a break during the heat of the day (pool, nap) and back to the parks for the evening. Maybe a little of that pixie dust will keep Katia away (Katia would be a great name for a Disney Villain)

With all the sadness that Irene brought, it is nice to be reminded that there are also good days ahead.


Yes this is value season also with free dining! Of course its probably because its also during hurricane season. We are always there at rope drop because my hubby is a disney fanatic! Its the only time he ever wants to get out of bed in the morning! LOL Katia would be a great name for a disney villian! LOL I hope Tink is spreading her pixie dust all over Katia and keeping her away from everyone.
Quoting Squid28:


Just hang out on the tree for a little while, if you can. All the out of town tree crews should be showing up any day (look for all the out of state plates on the vehicle they show up in). They are like pirranahas, and will cut the legs out from under each other to get the job. Also make sure they are insured and bonded, and get them to write you an inflated receipt if they will to help you cover the deductible. Trees on structures and your dwelling are generally covered by homeowners policy.


To remove the tree and drop it to the ground is covered in most policies. Removing the tree from the property isn't included in all policies. I agree with Squid28 ..get the bill a bit inflated if their willing to work with you. It will assist with the deductible and debris removal if any.
Quoting wxobsvps:
Where's Patrap?


He has his own blog...
2517. JamesSA
@2508 GOM run... Whoa! LOL, let's hope not!
2518. P451
Quoting wxobsvps:


I prefer the XTRP. Not as flaky.

Straight and to the point.


I wish we had XTRP not-a-model runs.

Straight line. Ever intensifying every frame.

They'd be a WU blog dream.

Quoting P451:
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.





Why do you tempt this blog :P
Looks like the NAO is going to be neutral for the coming weeks, this looks ike a bad setup for the southeast coast and northern gulf. If the models verify the highs should be stronger and the troughs will be further north and not as strong as predicted on the GFS models.
2521. Squid28
Quoting P451:
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.





Dude that is so wrong..... That would officialy make the upper Texas coast, the epiceneter of ultimate weather anomalies....
Look at the strange way the GFS flares up the GOM...as P451 was discussing:
2523. Gearsts
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO
The COC is almost naked east of the convection right on top of the nhc forecast track. Well thats what i see :)
2524. Katia
Quoting weathers4me:
Katia will not be a problem for FL or East Coast. The GOM system will most likely move into Mexico or extreme E TX from the looks of the models. Folks enjoy your holiday weekend. Take a break from this blog. LOL


You must be psychic if you know where i'm going to be in 10 days! I dont even know where i'll be, but naked is not one of them, sorry to disappoint you all!
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO


I argee the LLCOC it well south of the forecast track
2526. P451
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO


Really looking nice. Seems the easterly shear is slackening.

Not surprising to see her on the south side of the guidance. They should get her pinned down better next full update.



Heading towards DMin so convection is expected to wane during the day. She should really blossom overnight.

Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO


Honestly it doesn't surprise me. I am fully expecting the model runs to be further west with time. This one really needs to be watched just like Irene.
2528. angiest
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Look at the strange way the GFS flares up the GOM...as P451 was discussing:


That's at least twice GFS has split the Gulf storm, with one piece heading towards Sabine Pass and the rest into Mexico.
Tropical Disturbance 35
Issued: 08:54 AM CDT Tuesday August 30, 2011

Current Location: 18N/84W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean
Movement: West-Northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph
Organizational Trend: No change since yesterday
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 5%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 60%
Forecast Track Confidence: Below Average due to poor model guidance as far as the track beyond Friday.
Changes From Our Previous Forecast This is our first forecast for this disturbance.

Our Forecast Computer models have come into much better agreement on the development of a low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico late this week. Development appears to originate from a combination of factors. Moisture from Disturbance 35 moves northwestward and into the northwest Gulf by Friday morning. That moisture interacts with a decaying frontal boundary now located over the central Gulf, forming a low pressure center off the lower to middle Texas coast in the general vicinity of 25N/95W.

We think that there is a better-than-not chance that a tropical storm will form in the northwest Gulf of Mexico later this week, probably not until late Friday or more likely on Saturday. Beyond that point, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to how long the storm system may remain offshore . Steering currents across the northern Gulf may be quite weak by Saturday. The most likely scenario would be for the system to move ashore into Texas either late Saturday or on Sunday as a tropical storm. However, if the system remains over water for an extended period of time, then we cannot discount the possibility that it could strengthen to a hurricane prior to moving inland into Texas or Louisiana.

Expected Impacts on Land Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday evening, which means that Thursday may be the last day for potential evacuations offshore. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.

The next update will be issued by 4PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
© ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved
tropicswatch@impactweather.com
2530. Vero1
Quoting P451:


Quit the blog apparently.
Yesterday was August 29, six years after Katrina, quiet day for him.
Quoting Gearsts:
The COC is almost naked east of the convection right on top of the nhc forecast track. Well thats what i see :)

what I see that you are seeing is the LL bands near the LLCOC
Has anybody seen the keys to the random satellite shots of an empty GoM?
2533. russm1
Quoting seasntrees:


To remove the tree and drop it to the ground is covered in most policies. Removing the tree from the property isn't included in all policies. I agree with Squid28 ..get the bill a bit inflated if their willing to work with you. It will assist with the deductible and debris removal if any.


Recommending someone commit insurance fraud is not good advice. Just saying....
2535. P451
Quoting MrstormX:


Why do you tempt this blog :P


LOL.

Remember the early runs when we had 92 and 93 way out there? Fujiwara off of the SE US Coast?

haha.
Quoting P451:
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.





Kinda reminds me of a stronger version of TS Alison. Not something out of the realm of possibility.
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO

agreed, just goes to show you why looking at a 10 day model output is useless when the storm has barely even formed yet and is 10 days away ...
2538. Dakster
Quoting Katia:


You must be psychic if you know where i'm going to be in 10 days! I dont even know where i'll be, but naked is not one of them, sorry to disappoint you all!


I hear the North Atlantic is beautiful this time of the year - why don't you visit there?
Quoting Dakster:


I hear the North Atlantic is beautiful this time of the year - why don't you visit there?

Hahahahahahahah
I would give katia 45 mph in the next advisory....but maybe sticking with 40 would be reasonable also i guess
2541. angiest
Quoting P451:
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.





GFS continues to resurrect storms from history, though with some variation in this case:

2542. Seastep
Quoting GetReal:


Katia coming together nicely, and the COC appears to be well south of the official track... IMO


It is well S.

Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

agreed, just goes to show you why looking at a 10 day model output is useless when the storm has barely even formed yet and is 10 days away ...


Not useless at all. COC discrepancies are common and expected however the trends reflected in long range forecasts are quite realistic if one has had the training to interpret correctly...
Outflowlooks good on each side if Katia exceptfor the E and NE sides
2545. aimetti
im a newbie but isnt the GFS mostly for short term - medium term timeframe.
Quoting SPLbeater:
I would give katia 45 mph in the next advisory....but maybe sticking with 40 would be reasonable also i guess

It's already at 45, according to ATCF. NHC may even take it to 50, though there's still a bit of noticeable shear going on, so maybe not...
2547. Jax82
I feel like i never got to know Jose.
"get them to write you an inflated receipt if they will to help you cover the deductible. "


This message not endorsed by your local US Attorney's office. Insurance and wire fraud are not your friend.
Quoting Dakster:


I hear the North Atlantic is beautiful this time of the year - why don't you visit there?


Cold water? Bleh!
Quoting Jax82:
I feel like i never got to know Jose.


I feel like i never got to know Gert, franklin or jose
2551. Drakoen
ECMWF 00z shows a storm ramping up in the western GOM and impacting Texas as a minmal hurricane. Something to watch out for the next coming days.
2552. Katia
Quoting yesterway:


COC discrepancies are common and expected


I have to agree with you on that, wait, are we talking about the same thing here?
2553. Tijer
Quoting ackee:
I am glad someone else said it that what been seeing this morning cant wait for recon to get better idea where the centre is


At this point, I would not be to concerned about the COC. The COC has a bad habit of bouncing around like a drunk sailor on shore leave. Wall - Lamppost - Wall - Bus bench - Alley - Trash cans - OUCH!
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 00z shows a storm ramping up in the western GOM and impacting Texas as a minmal hurricane. Something to watch out for the next coming days.


Texas = land of extremes
Quoting Allyson00:
Tropical Disturbance 35
Issued: 08:54 AM CDT Tuesday August 30, 2011

Current Location: 18N/84W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean
Movement: West-Northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph
Organizational Trend: No change since yesterday
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 5%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 60%
Forecast Track Confidence: Below Average due to poor model guidance as far as the track beyond Friday.
Changes From Our Previous Forecast This is our first forecast for this disturbance.

Our Forecast Computer models have come into much better agreement on the development of a low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico late this week. Development appears to originate from a combination of factors. Moisture from Disturbance 35 moves northwestward and into the northwest Gulf by Friday morning. That moisture interacts with a decaying frontal boundary now located over the central Gulf, forming a low pressure center off the lower to middle Texas coast in the general vicinity of 25N/95W.

We think that there is a better-than-not chance that a tropical storm will form in the northwest Gulf of Mexico later this week, probably not until late Friday or more likely on Saturday. Beyond that point, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to how long the storm system may remain offshore . Steering currents across the northern Gulf may be quite weak by Saturday. The most likely scenario would be for the system to move ashore into Texas either late Saturday or on Sunday as a tropical storm. However, if the system remains over water for an extended period of time, then we cannot discount the possibility that it could strengthen to a hurricane prior to moving inland into Texas or Louisiana.

Expected Impacts on Land Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday evening, which means that Thursday may be the last day for potential evacuations offshore. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.

The next update will be issued by 4PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
© ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved
tropicswatch@impactweather.com


Allyson,

How did you get that on their website?
Quoting Dragod66:


I feel like i never got to know Gert, franklin or jose


Never got to know TD 10 either... :/ lol

2557. Katia
Quoting Tijer:


The COC has a bad habit of bouncing around like a drunk sailor


I read somewhere that Whiskey and the COC is not a good thing to mix together.
2558. JeffM
Quoting russm1:


Recommending someone commit insurance fraud is not good advice. Just saying....


I was about to say the same thing.
ACE so far:

IRENE: 20.3425
BRET: 2.9450
ARLENE: 1.9875
EMILY: 1.9875
CINDY: 1.8800
DON: 1.7000
GERT: 1.6025
HARVEY: 1.2350
JOSE: 0.5275
FRANKLIN: 0.4050
KATIA: 0.2825

Katia will likely be in second place by tomorrow evening. 'Tis been a funny year...
I don't know, but that model P451 showed has a big system smashing into us in Nova Scotia.

BOOOOO!! to that
So since Irene's models started west and shifted east. Is Katia going to start east and shift west? hmmmm



Quoting Gearsts:
The COC is almost naked east of the convection right on top of the nhc forecast track. Well thats what i see :)


Just depends on where you live, you can see the COC differently!:-)
Quoting E46Pilot:
So since Irene's models started west and shifted east. Is Katia going to start east and shift west? hmmmm





It doesn't work like that....
I think Katia COC is around 11.5N/33.5W
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Katia COC is around 11.5N/33.5W


Fair enough...
2566. Tijer
Quoting Katia:


I read somewhere that Whiskey and the COC is not a good thing to mix together.


Better guess would be Rum. Larger supply near by.
Quoting waynehelpardNS:
I don't know, but that model P451 showed has a big system smashing into us in Nova Scotia.

BOOOOO!! to that


I see that too ... not good, the GFS looks like a similar track to Bill but stronger than Bill at NS
2568. angiest
Quoting Neapolitan:
ACE so far:

IRENE: 20.3425
BRET: 2.9450
ARLENE: 1.9875
EMILY: 1.9875
CINDY: 1.8800
DON: 1.7000
GERT: 1.6025
HARVEY: 1.2350
JOSE: 0.5275
FRANKLIN: 0.4050
KATIA: 0.2825

Katia will likely be in second place by tomorrow evening. 'Tis been a funny year...


And Don gets so much less respect than so many storms that rank lower in ACE.
2569. kap333
Yikes for everyone from Mexico to Florida!

Quoting P451:
And now the GFS

Look what it does in the GOM lol. I don't think this blog can handle that model run but I'm posting it for the laughs.



2570. TBird78
A possible "hurricane" party in Houston soon. Good thing my bar is stocked.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Allyson,

How did you get that on their website?


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !
2572. hahaguy
Quoting E46Pilot:
So since Irene's models started west and shifted east. Is Katia going to start east and shift west? hmmmm





Hopefully they stay east.
2573. Seastep
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Katia COC is around 11.5N/33.5W


Probably. Was at 11.5N/33W at 7:15 this morning:

all my eyes are on the gulf disturbance sorry bermuda
Quoting E46Pilot:
So since Irene's models started west and shifted east. Is Katia going to start east and shift west? hmmmm



The fishcaster will say models are going to trend east and the doomcaster will say models are going to trend west. The forecaster will go by whatever the model concensus is.

It's too early to say when and where and maybe even if she makes the turn to the north. Can't you people have a bit more patience for a few more day?
Quoting TBird78:
A possible "hurricane" party in Houston soon. Good thing my bar is stocked.


I think of all that hard baked soil and how the soil percolation is 0. The flash flooding will be intense should that system move inland Texas...
I'll believe it will rain in TX and a storm ramps up when I see it.
Quoting disneyfaninnawlins:


I am from New Orleans, heat is something we are used to. Besides there are not long lines in September because kids are back in school. And we visit WDW every year in May when it is hot. I actually find it cooler there because we have 100% humidity here on top of hot temps. Besides,to each his own? Right?


Unless a storm is actually going to hit, Disney does not change anything in the parks. There may be a ride or two that won't operate because of the weather (thinking Dumbo), but they just keep going.

They also do not issue rain checks or refund any tickets for bad weather.

Have been their in monsoon weather -- just put on ponchos and keep going!
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !
google your character you might see your quotes on this board
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Katia COC is around 11.5N/33.5W


NHC said 12.3N 33.4W, and I don't see any thing there..
If the GOM storm happens then it would probably be "Lee"...what a simplistic name.
Quoting yesterway:


Not useless at all. COC discrepancies are common and expected however the trends reflected in long range forecasts are quite realistic if one has had the training to interpret correctly...

people rely on models way toooooooo much these days, you have no idea how much the error of its current center location will be magnified 10 days later.

Long range computer model forecasts are good for determining only large scale features, and even then you are far better off using ensemble means rather than individual operational solutions.
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Me too! I do custom project work for Exxon but we don't have a subscription to ImpactWeather! That would be really nice! I hope this depression/TS forms and brings us a lot of rain in Houston. If you could post their graphics that would be fantastic! Or email them!
2585. TBird78
Quoting yesterway:


I think of all that hard baked soil and how the soil percolation is 0. The flash flooding will be intense should that system move inland Texas...


Yes, I've been telling all these idiots I work with that for months. But they just keep wishing for a big storm...no common sense.
Quoting angiest:


GFS continues to resurrect storms from history, though with some variation in this case:



Hurricane Love would be a good name for an all-star music group recording a syrupy-sweet ballad to raise funds for storm victims. They could call the song "You Are In The Eye Of Our Hearts"
2587. angiest
Quoting yesterway:


I think of all that hard baked soil and how the soil percolation is 0. The flash flooding will be intense should that system move inland Texas...


KBDI map of Texas, indicating how dry the soil is.
2588. angiest
Quoting MrstormX:
If the GOM storm happens then it would probably be "Lee"...what a simplistic name.


The author of Isaac's Storm described "Mitch" as a banal name.
Hey everybody,If you want to see some cool pic's of Irene on the Outer Banks,N.C. go to Facebook and search (Oregon Inlets Idiots) plenty of wall photos there. lot's of water damage and the sound side tidal surge which is caused by the wind,not the ocean tides.
Quoting TBird78:


Yes, I've been telling all these idiots I work with that for months. But they just keep wishing for a big storm...no common sense.


Yeah the soil around here, if it's not soggy because of a broken water main is practically concrete.
Quoting TBird78:


Yes, I've been telling all these idiots I work with that for months. But they just keep wishing for a big storm...no common sense.


I have been doing the same thing! Haha. My co-workers look dumbfounded when I tell them if we get some heavy rainfall for a straight day we will have some flooding problems. Some people just don't understand!
2592. SQUAWK
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Just make sure you don't get yourself in trouble for posting copyrighted material. You do not need the aggravation.
if you are in need of assistance you can check with different faith based organizations and i am sure they would be willing to help with tree removal. lets assume your insurance company will pay for the tree to be cut down and thats all. a faith based organization may be able to move the tree to the street for municipality to pick up, or may even remove the tree from site depending on a teams capabilities. if your insurance company gives you a check to have a tree cut down, you need to be paying a licensed company to do exactly that! Save your Invoice!
2594. angiest
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I have been doing the same thing! Haha. My co-workers look dumbfounded when I tell them if we get some heavy rainfall for a straight day we will have some flooding problems. Some people just don't understand!


We are definitely past the point where a weak tropical cyclone is beneficial. Even as early as May a very heavy thunderstorm around here caused a fair amount of street flooding in and around the Cinco Ranch area.
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Maybe just give us a summary, I think the company would not like charts etc given out for free.
2596. Vero1
..Atmospheric Forces Conspire to Make 2011 a Wild Year By Stephanie Pappas | LiveScience.com – 45 mins ago..

So far, 2011 has brought its fair share of tornadoes, droughts, floods and even a rare hurricane in the Northeast. With $35 billion in natural disaster damage so far this year, it seems natural to wonder: What the heck is going on?

The answer, according to climate and weather experts, is simply a combination of factors, including La Nina, local atmospheric patterns, and potentially climate change — though the importance of climate in any individual weather scenario is still nearly impossible to quantify..........

http://news.yahoo.com/atmospheric-forces-conspire -2011-wild-123803807.html

2597. TBird78
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I have been doing the same thing! Haha. My co-workers look dumbfounded when I tell them if we get some heavy rainfall for a straight day we will have some flooding problems. Some people just don't understand!


I work off of 45N and when it rains heavy it floods the feeders where I exit to go home. So I can only imagine what it would do now if we got a storm.
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

people rely on models way toooooooo much these days, you have no idea how much the error of its current center location will be magnified 10 days later.

Long range computer model forecasts are good for determining only large scale features, and even then you are far better off using ensemble means rather than individual operational solutions.


I don't know who you mean by "people" however forecast models are designed by and for professionals who have had formal training regarding their interpretation and application. As far as a public blog is concerned they serve as nothing more than a form of entertainment and curiosity.
2599. Gearsts
Quoting weatherguy03:


Just depends on where you live, you can see the COC differently!:-)
LOL
I just nailedthe intensity for 11Am advisory, lol woot woot 45 mph
Quoting SPLbeater:
I just nailedthe intensity for 11Am advisory, lol woot woot 45 mph


woot woot 45 woot woot

:)
Quoting overwash12:
Hey everybody,If you want to see some cool pic's of Irene on the Outer Banks,N.C. go to Facebook and search (Oregon Inlets Idiots) plenty of wall photos there. lot's of water damage and the sound side tidal surge which is caused by the wind,not the ocean tides.

OVERWASH!!!! I heard you being discussed the past few days during the Irene saga on the national news...
Quoting angiest:


The author of Isaac's Storm described "Mitch" as a banal name.


Not to mention a long time ago a martial artist named Bruce Lee existed. He could kick so fast that the cameramen told him to go slower so they could capture it on film. He trained for hours everyday and was similiar to Muhammad Ali in terms of speed...

Do you really want a storm in the gulf of Mexico called that?

People worry about Katia and relation (and even timing) to Katrina, I'd worry alot more about Hurricane Bruce Lee.
Notice 2 Tropical Cyclones are shown here:

11:00am Advisory
*Click graphics to magnify (graphics can be further magnified in the Link window by clicking on it)

Quoting yesterway:

OVERWASH!!!! I heard you being discussed the past few days during the Irene saga on the national news...
Yeah,check out them pic's! I took some small footage myself. I drove around the Island during the storm. I think when I grow up I want to be a stormchaser!LOL
Katia looking South of track to me.
Quoting overwash12:
Yeah,check out them pic's! I took some small footage myself. I drove around the Island during the storm. I think when I grow up I want to be a stormchaser!LOL


Hhahaha will do. I would have enjoyed driving around with you.
Quoting kmanislander:
Katia looking South of track to me.


Good morning.

You see it south of the 11 AM position of 12.3N?
Quoting kmanislander:
Katia looking South of track to me.


Hi Kman --
12Z NAM +84... 996 off shore of Galveston

Quoting TBird78:


I work off of 45N and when it rains heavy it floods the feeders where I exit to go home. So I can only imagine what it would do now if we got a storm.


I live not too far from the stretch of depressed US-59, and while I don't hope to see people jet skiing down it again anytime soon... it does sound like it would make some great photographs.
Quoting yesterway:


Hhahaha will do. I would have enjoyed driving around with you.
Well,we might get another chance this year!
2614. Seastep
Quoting kmanislander:
Katia looking South of track to me.


Yeah. Not sure why NHC went contrary to ASCAT. Can't imagine it went NNW in less than four hours.



EDIT: NNW. Directionally challenged this AM.
Saw J Bastardi jawing with O'Reilley on Fox last night......"It's an East Coast yr, It's an East Coast yr." Bastardi kept mentioning Katia as maybe a threat to the East Coast in 8-10 days?? A potential "Lee" is more of an immediate threat in the GOM(not much hype on it yet). Some areas are -38 to -49 inches of rain down in the rain bucket.......goodbye 100++ degree heat!! Wow, since May, no rain*****
Is it gonna rain or not?! damn models

2618. ncstorm
I know some people dont care for accuweather but I like Henry Margusity and he got Irene's track right..

Lee Should Form in the Gulf. Katia, I Hope, is Wide Right
Aug 30, 2011; 8:35 AM ET

Disco

1. Lee - The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico, and I expect that we will have Lee by the end of the Labor Day weekend. I think NAM may be too fast on the development while the GFS and Euro are slower. The landfall of the storm I am unsure of just yet. I can see Lee just sitting around the Gulf next week then eventually getting pulled north. However, that will really depend on a lot of factors that will affect Katia as well. The problem I see, you can't have a storm going north into the Tennessee Valley per the GFS and have a hurricane hit the East coast at the same time. That just not happen. Stop here and go below to Katia.

2. Katia - The key to Katia hitting the East coast will be the trough that might come into the East. I say might because an old friend of mine would always talk about the typhoon rule where if a typhoon recurves to the northeast in the Pacific, watch for a trough in the eastern U.S. 10 days later. Right now, it does not appear the typhoon will recurve so no trough in the East, thus there is room for Katia to come west toward the coast.

Now that you are totally confused, one of two things will happen. Lee will form and go into southern Texas and Katia will threaten the East coast, or the trough will come in, pick up Lee and take the storm into the Tennessee Valley while Katia stays out in the Atlantic and totally misses the East coast.
2619. angiest
Quoting nofailsafe:


I live not too far from the stretch of depressed US-59, and while I don't hope to see people jet skiing down it again anytime soon... it does sound like it would make some great photographs.


Freeways are part of our flood control plan. ;) If 59 hadn't filled up during Allison, there would have been a lot more water in the museum district, Rice, and the Medical Center.
2620. Katia
Quoting SPLbeater:
I just nailedthe intensity for 11Am advisory, lol woot woot 45 mph


For nailing my intensity, you receive: a cookie.
Quoting overwash12:
Yeah,check out them pic's! I took some small footage myself. I drove around the Island during the storm. I think when I grow up I want to be a stormchaser!LOL


Your photos are beautiful although very dramatic. "Overwash" is indeed the operative word in the photos...
2622. MahFL
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Posting paid for stuff might be against terms and conditions and you could get fired....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning.

You see it south of the 11 AM position of 12.3N?


I do. Perhaps closer to 11.9 N now. I also think Katia is a prime candidate for a center relocation to the South underneath the deep convection as sheared systems are well known to shift centers very early on when the weak convection where the actual center is cannot retain the area of lowest pressure.

I ran the RGB and visible loops and cannot see anything looking like a center North of 12 at this time. I guess we will just have to monitor this for the next few hours as the storm consolidates.
Where is the new blog!
Maybe the experts could help me understand the models a little better. I'm seeing on the HWRF @ 126hrs that the Bermuda High kinda extends past the US East Coast. Am I understanding that correctly or is that just a figment of my imagination?
Quoting Allyson00:


I work for an oil and gas commpany and we have a subscription, I'm sure we pay big money : ) They are conservative and pretty accurate. If I can figure out how to post images I can post their graphic...there are tons of tools due to us having to be ready to evacuate offshore operations. They also have a daily video update, but again not sure how to post it.

I don't mind posting updates if you guys are interested. Have a great day. Doing the rain dance here in Houston !


Heard the same
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi Kman --


Hi there. We are getting into the heart of the season now and the signs for that are all out there.
Quoting ncstorm:
I know some people dont care for accuweather but I like Henry Margusity and he got Irene's track right..

Lee Should Form in the Gulf. Katia, I Hope, is Wide Right
Aug 30, 2011; 8:35 AM ET

Disco

1. Lee - The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico, and I expect that we will have Lee by the end of the Labor Day weekend. I think NAM may be too fast on the development while the GFS and Euro are slower. The landfall of the storm I am unsure of just yet. I can see Lee just sitting around the Gulf next week then eventually getting pulled north. However, that will really depend on a lot of factors that will affect Katia as well. The problem I see, you can't have a storm going north into the Tennessee Valley per the GFS and have a hurricane hit the East coast at the same time. That just not happen. Stop here and go below to Katia.

2. Katia - The key to Katia hitting the East coast will be the trough that might come into the East. I say might because an old friend of mine would always talk about the typhoon rule where if a typhoon recurves to the northeast in the Pacific, watch for a trough in the eastern U.S. 10 days later. Right now, it does not appear the typhoon will recurve so no trough in the East, thus there is room for Katia to come west toward the coast.

Now that you are totally confused, one of two things will happen. Lee will form and go into southern Texas and Katia will threaten the East coast, or the trough will come in, pick up Lee and take the storm into the Tennessee Valley while Katia stays out in the Atlantic and totally misses the East coast.


Yup. I watch his videos every day.
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah. Not sure why NHC went contrary to ASCAT. Can't imagine it went NNW in less than four hours.



EDIT: NNW. Directionally challenged this AM.


I looked at that pass and wondered about that myself but what we really need is an updated microwave pass and who knows when that will show up on the Navy site.
Still 2.5 million without power and ongoing flooding from Irene if the blog still cares
Link

NEWFANE, Vt. (AP) — Flooding isolated entire towns in Vermont and New York, some communities warily watched swollen rivers and more than 2.5 million people from North Carolina to Maine lacked electricity Tuesday, three days after Hurricane Irene churned up the Eastern Seaboard.
The storm has been blamed for at least 40 deaths in 11 states.

Quoting ncstorm:
I know some people dont care for accuweather but I like Henry Margusity and he got Irene's track right..

Lee Should Form in the Gulf. Katia, I Hope, is Wide Right
Aug 30, 2011; 8:35 AM ET

Disco

1. Lee - The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico, and I expect that we will have Lee by the end of the Labor Day weekend. I think NAM may be too fast on the development while the GFS and Euro are slower. The landfall of the storm I am unsure of just yet. I can see Lee just sitting around the Gulf next week then eventually getting pulled north. However, that will really depend on a lot of factors that will affect Katia as well. The problem I see, you can't have a storm going north into the Tennessee Valley per the GFS and have a hurricane hit the East coast at the same time. That just not happen. Stop here and go below to Katia.

2. Katia - The key to Katia hitting the East coast will be the trough that might come into the East. I say might because an old friend of mine would always talk about the typhoon rule where if a typhoon recurves to the northeast in the Pacific, watch for a trough in the eastern U.S. 10 days later. Right now, it does not appear the typhoon will recurve so no trough in the East, thus there is room for Katia to come west toward the coast.

Now that you are totally confused, one of two things will happen. Lee will form and go into southern Texas and Katia will threaten the East coast, or the trough will come in, pick up Lee and take the storm into the Tennessee Valley while Katia stays out in the Atlantic and totally misses the East coast.



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it gonna rain or not?! damn models

Good question, they took rain out of our forecast and instead of 110 to 112 it will be 100 to 102? Is that really improvement?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good question, they took rain out of our forecast and instead of 110 to 112 it will be 100 to 102? Is that really improvement?


I feel ya...
NAM is too fast developing this thing (LEE GULF)...ignore...lean on the more reliable Euro model...

GFS next.
2637. ncstorm
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Yup. I watch his videos every day.


I just finish watching it myself.
2638. BDAwx
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.
2639. ncstorm
Quoting Twinkster:



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there


well Joe did call the GOM storm potential before Irene even made landfall in NY...not saying I am a huge fan of his but you have to give credit where its due..yeah I know he calls a lot of NE storms but he still got Irene track right as well as Henry..
Quoting BDAwx:
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.


Good commentary...thank you
2641. Dennis8
Houston HWO

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AS SOON AS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
T.C.F.W.
012/TS/K/CX
MARK
11.38N/34.03W



Quoting wxobsvps:
Nobody likes coming here anymore for fear of being banned.

Is this really the vision for the comments here on The Main Blog?

So many got so amped up on the Power to Report on "minus" that now the rich flavor that the blog had developed over the years is stripped away.

The self-righteous killed this place, one minus at a time. Failure to comprehend how to Ignore, rather than Report, is really the only offense worthy of excommunication from the Blog.

In the immortal words of the Grand Freakin Poobah of the Blog:

pfffft,,,..!


OHH NO! The fear of being banned on a weather blog! I see your point(just ignore the morons), but if people are actually in fear they are going to be banned here, they should probably find better use of there time.

It's not like it isn't extremely easy to circumvent a ban here. Why do you think the blog gets infested by the same few trolls on a daily basis.
2644. Grothar
img src="">
Quoting Twinkster:



his old friend regarding trough is Joe Bastardi. Just thought I'd throw that out there


Levi talks about the same thing with typhoon and USA Hurricanes. Not just Bastardi.
2646. Vero1
Quoting ncstorm:


well Joe did call the GOM storm potential before Irene even made landfall in NY...not saying I am a huge fan of his but you have to give credit where its due..yeah I know he calls a lot of NE storms but he still got Irene track right as well as Henry..
So did "StormTop".
2647. Grothar
img src="">
Quoting MahFL:


Posting paid for stuff might be against terms and conditions and you could get fired....


As long as I don't post propietary data referring to a specific operation there's no problem. This is just general weather update for the area. Now if I were to post the username and login I might be in trouble. Thanks for the concern though!
2649. Dennis8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011
WILL COMMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUESSES REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NW GULF LATER THIS AFTN. 47
2650. Grothar
img src="">
Quoting ncstorm:


well Joe did call the GOM storm potential before Irene even made landfall in NY...not saying I am a huge fan of his but you have to give credit where its due..yeah I know he calls a lot of NE storms but he still got Irene track right as well as Henry..


Even if JB hypes too much he still knows his stuff.
2652. Dennis8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

IT APPEARS
ANY MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW DEVELOPING AND SLOW MOVING
AND WILL IMPACT FORECASTS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
Quoting BDAwx:
I don't know why people feel like they have to prove that hurricane Irene was a devastating storm. I don't think it was over hyped at all, in fact I feel it was suitably hyped considering the forecast intensity.

People called for widespread wind damage including trees downed, power outages and tornado damage. That all occurred. Major/record inland flooding was forecast due to locally as much as 15" of rain. That also occurred. storm tides as high as 10' were forecast along irene's track in areas of onshore winds at high tide, that too occurred and caused damage. It was forecast to be the worst hurricane to hit the region in decades, it was; people who took the worst of Irene put it on par with storms like Bob 1991 and Gloria 1985, in fact it was the worst on record in inland areas with record flooding. It's not difficult to have the worst storm in decades in a region that gets a storm once or twice a decade.

The only thing I saw over hyped was the impacts of the storm tide. I don't think you can call a botched wind speed forecast over hyping, especially since it is an area of tropical cyclone forecasting that the NHC struggles with.

Believe it or not, in certain measurable ways, Irene was under-hyped by the media. But, yes, Irene is already the third most deadly tropical cyclone to strike the US since 1980, her insured and uninsured dollar losses could be close to $20 billion, more than 5 million customers are still without electricity, and she gave many parts of the northeast their heaviest rains in at least 100 years or more. IOW, Irene was to many the literal storm of the century; to accuse anyone of "overhype", then--with the possible exception of TV outlets that get excited over water skiing squirrels and discussing what Kim Kardashian is wearing--is plain wrong.
Quoting Dennis8:
Houston HWO

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AS SOON AS THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES
TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.


The source of this possible system is the unsettled weather to the SW of Cayman where pressures in the Gulf of Honduras are fairly low now. This weather will probably migrate into the GOM. Obs at Roatan show winds out of the SW and a pressure of 1010 mbs which could be a sign of something trying to develop in this area.
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
18.88N/81.63W
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Even if JB hypes too much he still knows his stuff.


Exactly, people who bash him are pretty clueless. Yeah, he can overhype stuff, he loves the tropics and weather just like we do. It gets him excited. He is a better forecaster then probably anyone on this blog with the exception of Dr. Masters.
2657. Dennis8
HOUSTON TEXAS CLIMATE...
EACH OF THE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES WILL RECORD THEIR WARMEST
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IN WEATHER HISTORY. IN OTHER
WORDS...NO MONTH HAS EVER BEEN WARMER.
THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION HAVE ENDURED AN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FOUR DAYS. 43
2658. Dennis8
Quoting kmanislander:


The source of this possible system is the unsettled weather to the SW of Cayman where pressures in the Gulf of Honduras are fairly low now. This weather will probably migrate into the GOM. Obs at Roatan show winds out of the SW and a pressure of 1010 mbs which could be a sign of something trying to develop in this area.


Thank you sir....from your part of the world to ours...many a vacation I have taken your way.
Katia appears to have relocated the center to 11.5N and 33.5 W on a heading of 280 to 285 degrees. Consolidation taking place quite quickly now.
2660. Dennis8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
Quoting Dennis8:


Thank you sir....from your part of the world to ours...many a vacation I have taken your way.


Come again soon :-)
Does anybody know why the storm in the Caribbean is not an invest yet? perhaps because there is not a LLC?
The discussion from NWS New Orleans this morning:

MARINE...MARINE FCST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND BECOME QUIET
INTERESTING. MOST OF THE RAW MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING AND DEVELOPING AN ACTUAL SFC LOW IN THE
WRN GULF. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION AND FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW BUT AT LEAST A
MAJORITY OF THE MDLS ARE NOW FCSTING IT. RIGHT NOW WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. IF THE GFS ACTUALLY VERIFIES
CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH WORSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WED
AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SERN CONUS. BY WED NIGHT AND INTO THU THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN.
WINDS WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE SE AND REMAIN OUT OF THIS DIRECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DEVELOP A SWELL ACROSS THE GULF. IN
ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AND BY FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT WE
COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THIS ON TOP OF A SWELL FROM THE SE COULD LEAD TO SIG SEA HGTS OF
9-11 FT AND A FEW WAVES POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LATER FCST. /CAB/
Quoting IceCoast:


Exactly, people who bash him are pretty clueless. Yeah, he can overhype stuff, he loves the tropics and weather just like we do. It gets him excited. He is a better forecaster then probably anyone on this blog with the exception of Dr. Masters.


Nobody here (unless i am missing something) has a degree in meteorology. The Doc does, so therefore he is the expert here. Everyone else is an "amateur" who do the best they can with the tools available. They may have good forecasts, but they don't have that sheet of paper (ie a college degree) I still have learned a lot from people on here regardless.
2665. Seastep
Looks like it, kman.

Looks like she's ramping up much faster than forecast.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a cane in 12-24hrs.
Quoting Dennis8:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
855 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011

ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.
2667. Dennis8
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Nobody here (unless i am missing something) has a degree in meteorology. The Doc does, so therefore he is the expert here. Everyone else is an "amateur" who do the best they can with the tools available. They may have good forecasts, but they don't have that sheet of paper (ie a college degree) I still have learned a lot from people on here regardless.


I do BUT that is not something I advertise.......
2668. Seastep
Nea.... you're up.
2669. Dennis8
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.


Something to watch...
2670. Seastep
NEW BLOG
2671. TBird78
Someone posted about a weather station yesterday and I missed any responses. I still haven't decided which one to get. Any ideas?
10.3n28.2w, 10.8n29.4w, 11.5n30.8w have been re-evaluated&altered for TD.12's_12pmGMT_ATCF
10.6n28.1w, 11.0n29.4w, 11.5n30.9w, 12.0n32.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 29August_12pmGMT and ending 30August_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicaStormKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Katia's travel-speed was []mph([]k/h) on a heading of []degrees([])
TS.Katia was headed toward passage over [],[] ~[]days[]hours from now

Copy&paste [coordinates] into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 29August_6amGMT)
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Katia:


I have to agree with you on that, wait, are we talking about the same thing here?


Where do you want to go??

So many good choices huh?
I have a question.

Is it easier for a high pressure sytem to stay high if the air is drier, as opposed to moisture. And can a low pressure system stay low if there is more moisture in the atmosphere at the time?
Looks more like the NE Gulf...no Houston


THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A
WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH IF SOMETHING
WERE TO FORM, ITS MOST PLAUSIBLE TRACK WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.




Quoting DavidHOUTX:


This would be amazing. Just as long as it does not stall and drop 30 inches of rain. There does not appear to be anything that will really steer the storm over the weekend so it will be interesting to see what happens.