WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Irene pounds the Dominican Republic, heads for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene is pounding the north coast of the Dominican Republic this morning with tropical storm-force winds and torrential rains, as the storm continues to head west-northwest towards the Bahama Islands. Puerto Plata on the north coast of the Dominican Republic reported sustained winds of 58 mph at 5am local time this morning, with heavy rain. In the Turks and Caicos Islands ahead of Irene, winds have gusted to 42 - 49 mph this morning on Providenciales at personal weather stations at the Regent Grand and at Pine Cay. The latest hurricane hunter eye report at 10:38am EDT found a central pressure of 980 mb, and top surface winds of 85 mph using their SFMR instrument. The plane had not finished sampling the storm yet.

Yesterday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, reaching hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. No deaths or major injuries have been reported thus far from the islands, though the storm knocked out power to 1 million residents of Puerto Rico, including the entire island Vieques; 28% of Puerto Rico had no running water Monday afternoon. Billionaire Richard Branson's 8-bedroom mansion on private Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands was hit by lightning during the storm and burned down, and Branson relates on his blog how actress Kate Winslett had to carry out his 90-year-old mother from the main house to safety. Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from Irene, though the main danger comes today as the storm makes its closest approach to Haiti.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene, showing a hint of an eye starting to pop out.

Track forecast for Irene
Yesterday's dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet helped significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the Turks and Caicos islands today, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts. One reliable model, the UKMET, takes Irene into South Carolina, while several others have the hurricane missing the Southeast U.S. completely, passing just offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday. The official NHC forecast of a landfall along the North Carolina coast is a reasonable compromise, though with the models trending more eastwards of late, I would favor a landfall farther east than NHC is predicting. Irene will continue north or curve northeast after its encounter with North Carolina, and the hurricane could be a dangerous and destructive storm for the entire mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (8am EDT) runs of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 27 nm
24 hours: 44 nm
36 hours: 64 nm
48 hours: 81 nm
72 hours: 137 nm
96 hours: 201 nm
120 hours: 308 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 79 nm
48 hours: 98 nm
72 hours: 144 nm
96 hours: 190 nm
120 hours: 239 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Irene are better than average over the 1 - 3 day time period, and worse than average for 4 - 5 days. Note the error estimate of 308 nm (355 miles) for today's 5-day forecast. That's more than the distance from New York City to Boston, suggesting that we really don't know what portions of New England might be at most risk from Irene. It is still quite possible the core of the hurricane could miss New England.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest microwave data suggests that Irene does not have full eyewall; a gap exists in the southwest side. With wind shear now a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Irene may have trouble intensifying today. The hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next four days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 3 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by wind shear. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where the presence of Hispaniola is interfering with development. Once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola tonight, intensification is more likely.

Irene's impact on the Turks and Caicos Islands
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the Turks and Caicos Islands, which form the southeastern portion of the Bahama Islands chain. The last hurricane to affect the Turks and Caicos islands was Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike's northern eyewall devastated Grand Turk, Salt Cay, South Caicos, and a few other smaller cays when the storm was at Category 4 strength. Ike then weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds before making a direct hit on Great Inagua Island. Approximately 70-80% of the houses on Great Inagua Island sustained roof damage, and 25% had major damage or were destroyed. The Morton Salt factory on the island was forced to halt operations as Ike damaged its offices and loading docks. A few West Indian flamingos were killed by Ike but most of the 50,000 flamingos in Inagua National Park--the world's largest colony--survived by taking shelter within the park's mangroves or flying to other islands. Risk Management Solutions estimates that total damage costs are between $50 and $200 million (USD) for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Irene will be weaker than Ike, so will not do as much damage. The main threat from Irene will be wind damage.


Figure 2. The path of Hurricane Ike of 2008 took it through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds (pink colors).

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene will pass through the length of the Bahama Island chain and cause widespread destruction on those islands unfortunate enough to encounter the storm's right front eyewall. Currently, it appears that Crooked, Cat, Exuma, Eleuthera, and Abaco Islands are all in danger of experiencing the eyewall of Irene, which will be capable of bringing storm surges of 9 - 13 feet. The current forecast puts the Bahamas' two most developed islands--New Providence and Grand Bahama--on the weaker west side of Irene, where Category 1 hurricane winds are likely. These winds will likely cause considerable but not devastating damage. Irene will come very close to the capital city of Nassau on New Providence Island on Thursday morning, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas. Nassau has received direct hits from three major hurricanes since 1851--the Category 4 Nassau Hurricane of 1926, which killed 287 people, a Category 4 hurricane in 1866 that killed 387 people, and a Category 3 hurricane in August 1949. The island is vulnerable to high storm surges--a ten-foot storm surge is theoretically possible on the south shore of Nassau in a Category 3 hurricane. However, the south shore of the island is relatively undeveloped, and the city of Nassau and Paradise Island are mostly higher than ten feet in elevation. A much higher storm surge of 20 feet is possible along the southwest shore of Exuma Island, but again, this shore is not heavily developed.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120 - 125 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 3 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image.

Irene a potential multi-billion dollar disaster for New England and the mid-Atlantic
Though it is still possible the core of Irene will miss the U.S., the current NHC official forecast would mean that Irene would bring destructive flash flooding, significant beach damage, and widespread power outages due to tree damage along the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine, costing several billion dollars. If Irene ends up skirting the Outer Banks of North Carolina and not significantly weakening, then plowing through the mid-Atlantic and New England states as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, it could become one of the ten most damaging hurricanes in history. The latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model puts Irene ashore in Southeast Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon as a large storm with a central pressure of 974 mb. The latest run of the ECMWF model has Irene with a central pressure of 964 mb over Chesapeake Bay, and 972 mb over New Jersey. These central pressures correspond to strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strengths, and are similar to what Hurricane Floyd or 1999 had when it moved up the mid-Atlantic coast after hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Floyd was the 14th most damaging hurricane in history, with total damages estimated at $9.2 billion (2010 dollars.) Most of the damage was in North Carolina, which experienced its worst flooding on record. If the GFS and ECMWF models are correct, Irene could easily be a $10 billion hurricane, causing widespread damage along a long section of heavily populated coast. The most damaging Northeast U.S. hurricane of all time was Hurricane Agnes of 1972, with damages estimated at $11.8 billion (2010 dollars.) Currently, it appears that Irene will hit North Carolina on Saturday, and New England on Sunday. I strongly urge all residents of the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts to assess their hurricane preparedness immediately, and anticipate the possibility of hurricane conditions this weekend.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves far out in the eastern Atlantic, Invest 90L and Invest 98L, that NHC is giving 20% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. At present, the long-range models are showing that both of these disturbances will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Texas/Oklahoma heat wave sets all-time 100° records
The unprecedented heat wave gripping Texas and Oklahoma set several new all-time heat records yesterday. The high temperature hit 101° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, the 22nd consecutive day of 100°+ heat and 33rd day of 100°+ heat in the city. Both are all-time records for the city. Oklahoma City recorded its 51st day of 100°+ temperatures yesterday, breaking the record for most such days in year, set previously in 1980. Temperature records for Oklahoma City date back to 1891.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene
Ragged eye of Irene
Tragic
Tragic
This is the scene around Lake Sam Rayburn. Dead fish every 20 yards or so and dead fresh water clams everywhere. The lake is 11 feet low and is losing about an inch a day.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. rkay1
Maybe the waves will be an inch higher? 
Quoting CCSoFLA79:
really wondering what kind of impact even if offshore this will be for SF

Quoting LightningCharmer:


Actually don't mind children on this blog if they are respectful more so than some of the adults, and are eager to learn. There have been and are some excellent bloggers on here that appear at least to me to be minors. A child blogger on here may someday instigate or participate in a great scientific breakthrough.



Well said. I'm only 18, but I really study this stuff hard and try my best to make educated opinions and predictions. I truly enjoy learning a lot from the older ones here, who have been studying this stuff for a while...
1505. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Irene
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
1506. snotly
It's his own fault, comments like this can create a rift withing the blog, it could be a landslide of bad puns.

Quoting FLdewey:


Watch it Grothar... you're on shaky ground.
Anyway, apologies for my rant. It doesn't really matter the reason for it. I just get sick of people being attacked for minor things on the blog. A lot of people, especially lurkers, come here to learn. I finally got sick of the trash talking and said something. If the way I put my words offended you, I apologize. I just don't think it's asking too much to be respectful of others.

With that said, end of rant and back to Irene and/or earthquake.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Irene's eye vanishing is NOT due to an eyewall replacement cycle or dry air, rather due to the high convective blowup in the eyewall that obscures the eye. Often, like last year this happens in intensifying hurricanes.



Agree, intensifying at the moment as seen on cloud tops cooling significantly. Starting to spin up again after 6-8 hours weakening.
Quoting presslord:


All clear?


Not quite, but definitely looking better. Still the center will be about 200 miles or so offshore, may have some TS force winds along the coastal counties if track remains as is.
At my protected location on Provo
having sustained 30-35 with gusts to 50 mph
from ESE
my Bar is 29.61 falling (uncalibrated)
power has flickered a couple of times
i dont by the mode runs in tell this storm make that turn in tell then it will come vary close
Quoting thunderbug91:


Well said. I'm only 18, but I really study this stuff hard and try my best to make educated opinions and predictions. I truly enjoy learning a lot from the older ones here, who have been studying this stuff for a while...


Post of the year!!!! I strongly suspect that, for Jeff Masters, this is the point of it all...

Quoting thunderbug91:


I definitely think FL should still watch it...

I don't want to make anyone mad when I say this, but I think it will be heading west for a while. I honestly don't see the trough pulling it north anytime soon.

But I'm just a meteorological hobbyist, so I definitely could be wrong.
These storms can be aggravating in that you don't know where they're going sometimes.  The NHC archives are full of forecasts that shifted even within the 3 day cone.  
when is the next recon
Quoting Patrap:
PR still being soaked by Irene's tail



On Water Vapour loop, you can see the tail being left behind as an extra gift for PR.
i think this will miss the US...its looking more likely that it will
1518. jonelu
Quoting thunderbug91:
Is the reason all the storms in FL now are heading SW because of interaction with the extreme outer circulation of the hurricane? I was wondering...
No...we are on the boundary of that trough thats digging south. We wont feel any outer bands until Thursday.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like 105mph maybe at 5. Is RI still a factor?


Oh definitely, especially after it pulls away from Hispaniola. Here is the thing that some people don't understand - Yes, Irene has ingested some dry air. However, the conditions are primed for rapid intensification once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola.
So an earthquake for the mid-Atlantic and a possible hurricane on the way. I was a bit surprised to see the CMC model not only predicting a hurricane, but also a plague o' locusts making landfall near the Delmarva peninsula. Not sure what category though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh definitely, especially after it pulls away from Hispaniola. Here is the thing that some people don't understand - Yes, Irene has ingested some dry air. However, the conditions are primed for rapid intensification once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola.


Agree completely.
Quoting thunderbug91:


Well said. I'm only 18, but I really study this stuff hard and try my best to make educated opinions and predictions. I truly enjoy learning a lot from the older ones here, who have been studying this stuff for a while...


Good stuff I started on this blog 3 years ago, and am now a met major entering my junior year, and to be honest I have learned about as much about operational meteorology (basically weather forecasting) on this site than I have at this point in school. So if you know who to pay attention to this site can be great.
Quoting weatherlover94:
i think this will miss the US...its looking more likely that it will


Agree
Quoting Grothar:


I tried putting my age down when I joined, but they only had two spaces to enter your age. I needed 3.


I'll bet grandpa potato 4 is older than you and he doesn't need 3 digits. Are you prone to exaggerating or stand up when fibbing?
1525. NCSCguy
Just curious but at what times of the day do the model runs come out?
Quoting TomTaylor:
When did I say discussing the earthquake was off-topic? I said I haven't been seeing the normal on-topic insightful crew on the blog. Where's Drak? Levi? Atmo? Mswx and Cybr just got on, but they weren't here earlier. Kori? Kman? atmos? etc, etc

Please reread my post or just don't read them at all if you are having trouble understanding them.


I have been wondering where they are to. I miss there input. I know some said they where leaving because of all the dang trolls. It just blows my mind because we have a serious Hurricane on our hands and these idiots come in here and pick on folks and start crap in the middle of this. But I sit back and lurk and learn and when i see them I start - - every chance I get and ! ! . Enough is enough. I hope we here from BAHA and CRS. I read earlier BAHA has a blog on what's going on where he lives. Just go to his name.

I hope everyone stays safe that is in her path.

sheri
1527. Vero1
.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't think it will turn NE as fast as the models are saying...I believe the trough is a little weaker than what the models are seeing.



The trough is strong. By all accounts, strong enough at any other time to sweep Irene away. But the difference this time is that there's another even deeper trough digging behind the first one. The second trough will sharpen the mid-latitude flow and help to lift out the first trough very quickly. This will leave Irene behind and on a continued north-northwest track on Thursday as it approaches the coast.

Pay attention to how strong the severe weather outbreak is Thursday across the Northeast. Strong convection in the Northeast Thursday will help to build the ridge to the east ever-so-slightly such that it may give Irene that extra 20-40 miles push west that will mean all the difference.
1529. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh definitely, especially after it pulls away from Hispaniola. Here is the thing that some people don't understand - Yes, Irene has ingested some dry air. However, the conditions are primed for rapid intensification once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola.


+1
Quoting libertygirl:


Hello Sully!! So happy to see you back! :-)



Hiya LibertyGirl!

It feels great to be back. And just look what decides to happen...lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont by the mode runs in tell this storm make that turn in tell then it will come vary close


1533. rkay1
I would say the blog is slowing down now that there's hope of no direct hit. 
Quoting weather12know:


The earthquake is present, Irene is in the future...
For me the earthquake is non-existent, Irene is the now...


[It's all a matter of where u r... innit?]
Quoting StormJunkie:


I was saying that it looks like it will be just a hair N of the next forecast point...But not enough to make any difference overall. She is right where the NHC said she would be and moving about the predicted speed.


She's not keeping up with her forecast points and not where the NHC said she would be yesterday at this time. Go back and look at the Graphic Archives, the NHC just keeps updating the track on the new Graphic Archives and Satellite images so it yes it appears she's on track but she hasn't moved any in the last couple of hours if you watch the visible closely.
1512 I agree whole heartedly1
1537. Patrap
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh definitely, especially after it pulls away from Hispaniola. Here is the thing that some people don't understand - Yes, Irene has ingested some dry air. However, the conditions are primed for rapid intensification once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola.


It still has to deal with dry air from the west, but if it can defend itself from that I think you're right.

We'll soon see what the 5 p.m. discussion says but the 11 am discussion said that SHIPS was forecasting 10-20 knots of SW shear and that it would not decline, likely holding Irene to Cat 3 strength.
1540. CCkid00
Quoting sunlinepr:


That's the effect of abusive oil extraction and drilling in the GOM.... The collapse of deep oil cavern walls...


it is called....LIFE. they had earthquakes LONG before they ever started drilling for oil.
could someone let me know what the models look like now? are they shifting back west or farther East?
1543. rkay1
Most people on here won't acknowledge comments on here like that, but I will.  Your right on the money.  With every model run it looks more and more likely to spare the CONUS of at least a direct hit.  When shifting East resulted in a more likely hood of a CONUS hit, every other comment was "ITS GOING EAST!!!" now that its gone too far East, every comment is "I THINK ITS GOING BACK WEST!!!". 
Quoting weatherlover94:
i think this will miss the US...its looking more likely that it will

1544. 900MB
Funktop starting to green up impressively in the center. Looks like we are in for another round of intensification...
Quoting weatherlover94:
could someone let me know what the models look like now? are they shifting back west or farther East?


Shifting west for the first part of the track, very slightly east for the second part. Sharper recurve.
Looks stalled on the last few frames of post #1537.

Anyone else see that?
@Sully, amazing, I can't believe it! I haven't been on hear for about a year and a half...and here I am seeing you post comment on Irene! I am so happy to see you! Although, I wish I was up in Liberty and not in KW right now :-P Not digging the models, until I see Irene reach the 24 - passed the back door of the alley - I'm hanging out waiting to see...and happy to see you, again! Peace and all the best to ya' my fine weather friend. :-)
1548. Ryuujin
SO so many trolls out here now. Sheesh. I wish there was a 24 hour approval window when you make a new account during times of Hurricane/Tropical Storm activity. I think that would lessen the amount of troll accounts by half to two thirds.

Anyhoo, I see the models still have Irene all over the place. She doesn't look like she's headed NW in all that much of a hurry, but we will see. It's still going to be interesting how the trough and ridge pattern plays out.

Anything I've missed out on? (sides the DC quake) Any new info that would convince me of Irene's sweeping off to sea?

Quoting rkay1:
I would say the blog is slowing down now that there's hope of no direct hit. 



The blog is slowing down because many kids started school on Monday.
1550. JGreco
Quoting rkay1:
Most people on here won't acknowledge comments on here like that, but I will.  Your right on the money.  With every model run it looks more and more likely to spare the CONUS of at least a direct hit.  When shifting East resulted in a more likely hood of a CONUS hit, every other comment was "ITS GOING EAST!!!" now that its gone too far East, every comment is "I THINK ITS GOING BACK WEST!!!". 



Exactly...+1000. That seems to happen here often. I'm also from Florida and despite this being far removed from my area on the Gulf, This subject interests me simply not because of a threat to my area.:)
000
URNT12 KNHC 231848
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/18:28:20Z
B. 20 deg 44 min N
071 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 66 kt
E. 296 deg 13 nm
F. 010 deg 65 kt
G. 296 deg 15 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3106 m
J. 16 C / 3114 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E06/30/20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 23
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:32:00Z
;
Seems like Irene loves intensifying in the evening times...
Wake up to a category 4 being predicted to directly hit Wilmington (my location).... come home from work to nearly perfect model consensus that this will completely miss my area with very little side effects (being on the west side of the storm). Interesting.

This is a perfect example of why people dont take these storms seriously.... I gotta say, considering the models showed everyone from Texas to Maine at risk... then showed Florida, GA and SC at a very high risk... then showed NC at a very high risk... and now millions and millions of people in these states will receive little-to-nothing from Irene... Wow. Its a good thing this time, but should clear up for some of us enthusiasts why the everyday person doesnt take these things seriously until the last second
20.6n70.6w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF
20.4n70.6w, 20.7n71.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 22August_6pmGMT and ending 23August_6pmGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 7.3mph(11.8k/h) on a heading of 298.1degrees(NNW)
H.Irene was headed toward passing 1.3miles(2.1kilometres) north of LittleInagua,Bahamas ~15hours from now (though I wouldn't count on Irene continuing to move that slowly)

Copy&paste 19.3n68.0w-19.7n68.7w, 19.7n68.7w-20.1n69.7w, 20.1n69.7w-20.4n70.6w, 20.4n70.6w-20.7n71.2w, iga, 20.4n70.6w-21.578n72.996w, snu, pid into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 23August_12pmGMT)
1556. ncstorm
Quoting sullivanweather:



The blog is slowing down because many kids started school on Monday.


Where do you think Irene will make landfall after the bahamas?
Quoting rkay1:
Most people on here won't acknowledge comments on here like that, but I will.  Your right on the money.  With every model run it looks more and more likely to spare the CONUS of at least a direct hit.  When shifting East resulted in a more likely hood of a CONUS hit, every other comment was "ITS GOING EAST!!!" now that its gone too far East, every comment is "I THINK ITS GOING BACK WEST!!!". 




I'll just say it's heading north and won't be wrong. =)
1558. kwgirl
Well I am out of here. Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, you are in my prayers. As far as predicted landfall, I'm hoping it goes to sea. NO ONE needs a hurricane. As a person living in the Keys, I am still watching this thing until it starts really moving away. We have had too many turn at the last minute. Whenever a storm stalls, it is for a reason and the end result can be a BIG surprise. (Andrew, Katrina, etc, etc, etc) Stay safe everyone! I will be here tomorrow.
Yeah historically speaking the Ridge Deepens while the trough usually might deepen but it stays further north. I think Irene will track further west before it is turned to the north I expect the general consensus in the models to shift to the west from here on out. The trough will have an influence but only after it is far enough north and I think by the time that happens it might be too far west of North Carolina to hit it unless it makes a turn to the Northeast which I doubt given the high.
Quoting oakland:


Does the F5 share a button with something else? If so try CTRL + F5 and see if that works.
Try right click and see if there is a refresh option.
1562. WxLogic
Irene is ENE of the next forecast point.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Shifting west for the first part of the track, very slightly east for the second part. Sharper recurve.


I dont know about a sharper recurve most models seem to be more N or NNE rather than NE
1564. Ineluki
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Wake up to a category 4 being predicted to directly hit Wilmington (my location).... come home from work to nearly perfect model consensus that this will completely miss my area with very little side effects (being on the west side of the storm). Interesting.

This is a perfect example of why people dont take these storms seriously.... I gotta say, considering the models showed everyone from Texas to Maine at risk... then showed Florida, GA and SC at a very high risk... then showed NC at a very high risk... and now millions and millions of people in these states will receive little-to-nothing from Irene... Wow. Its a good thing this time, but should clear up for some of us enthusiasts why the everyday person doesnt take these things seriously until the last second


Best wait until it actually happens to say this. I don't trust a hurricane until it dissipates. And even then I don't let my guard down for a day or so.
Quoting sullivanweather:



The trough is strong. By all accounts, strong enough at any other time to sweep Irene away. But the difference this time is that there's another even deeper trough digging behind the first one. The second trough will sharpen the mid-latitude flow and help to lift out the first trough very quickly. This will leave Irene behind and on a continued north-northwest track on Thursday as it approaches the coast.

Pay attention to how strong the severe weather outbreak is Thursday across the Northeast. Strong convection in the Northeast Thursday will help to build the ridge to the east ever-so-slightly such that it may give Irene that extra 20-40 miles push west that will mean all the difference.


I don't know about that...A stronger outbreak would signify to me a stronger trof. I'm not so sure that would provide enough heat in the atmosphere to extend the ridge west, considering it would be evolving from cold-core processes.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/20 11_09L/webManagerIR/gifsBy12hr_04.gif

Seems to be taking a sharper turn to the NW at the end.


I think it's something of an optical illusion caused by the view being shifted to the north.
Quoting ncstorm:


Where do you think Irene will make landfall after the bahamas?


Atlantic Beach/Morehead City, North Carolina.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
At my protected location on Provo
having sustained 30-35 with gusts to 50 mph
from ESE
my Bar is 29.61 falling (uncalibrated)
power has flickered a couple of times
How far from the coast are you??

Elevation?

Keep on posting CRS
Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, apologies for my rant. It doesn't really matter the reason for it. I just get sick of people being attacked for minor things on the blog. A lot of people, especially lurkers, come here to learn. I finally got sick of the trash talking and said something. If the way I put my words offended you, I apologize. I just don't think it's asking too much to be respectful of others.

With that said, end of rant and back to Irene and/or earthquake.


I think you said it well MsWX....as a fellow Mississipian.....I know hospitality is in our upbringing....just is :))
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think it's something of an optical illusion caused by the view being shifted to the north.


Very possible.
1571. atl134
I thought that just yesterday the shear models were suggesting 5-10kt shear for several days but seeing this post now they're saying 10-20kts for a lengthy period. I feel like I remember several cases of changes in either direction like that last year but I'm also aware that one tends to remember quirks more than things that run smoothly so my question is... how reliable are these wind shear forecasts?
1572. Grothar
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:
Yeah historically speaking the Ridge Deepens while the trough usually might deepen but it stays further north. I think Irene will track further west before it is turned to the north I expect the general consensus in the models to shift to the west from here on out. The trough will have an influence but only after it is far enough north and I think by the time that happens it might be too far west of North Carolina to hit it unless it makes a turn to the Northeast which I doubt given the high.


Nice Handle.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think it's something of an optical illusion caused by the view being shifted to the north.


I agree.
Quoting sullivanweather:


Atlantic Beach/Morehead City, North Carolina.



IRENE will go on a SEA CRUISE after hitting the bahamas...
1575. ncstorm
Quoting sullivanweather:


Atlantic Beach/Morehead City, North Carolina.


thanks, Morehead is up the road from Wilmington..
FWIW, Irene is not likely at all to recurve without hitting the USA. Even if it does miss VA, it will still be heading north.. that means the NE states, New York, ect. Would be a very unnatural recurve for it to miss the US entirely.


Quoting sullivanweather:


Atlantic Beach/Morehead City, North Carolina.


How strong do you think Irene will be in New England?
I'm back. What's the chances of models shifting west and making landfall on Mrytle Beach? I really need to know this because someone's vacation is either going to end soon or not.
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, it's still quite sunny here, with light winds, some clouds. Typical summer day, if a bit breezy.
Since then it's started to get a bit overcast at my location.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, Irene is not likely at all to recurve without hitting the USA. Even if it does miss VA, it will still be heading north.. that means the NE states, New York, ect. Would be a very unnatural recurve for it to miss the US entirely.




I agree.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, Irene is not likely at all to recurve without hitting the USA. Even if it does miss VA, it will still be heading north.. that means the NE states, New York, ect. Would be a very unnatural recurve for it to miss the US entirely.




I agree.
Down to 90 mph

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 71.2W
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I think you said it well MsWX....as a fellow Mississipian.....I know hospitality is in our upbringing....just is :))


Lol...Exactly. I believe in being respectful, some don't. It's the differences in culture. Of course, some have different ways of being respectful, which may not be respectful in the eyes of others. Like I said, differences in culture.
1584. rv1pop
Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, apologies for my rant. It doesn't really matter the reason for it. I just get sick of people being attacked for minor things on the blog. A lot of people, especially lurkers, come here to learn. I finally got sick of the trash talking and said something. If the way I put my words offended you, I apologize. I just don't think it's asking too much to be respectful of others.

With that said, end of rant and back to Irene and/or earthquake.
I have come to respect you quite a bit. I thought you may have been over reacting -- but I did not 'ignore' you. Thanks for getting back on track.
POP
1585. Thrawst
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since then it's started to get a bit overcast at my location.


Still rather partly cloudy here in Western New Providence.. however wind is starting to increase now. expecting high end cat.1 to low end Cat 2 at peak of storm.
1586. cwf1069
Quoting Tazmanian:
when is the next recon

It's already on the air, right now over Gran Bahama Island
1587. TheMom
Quoting FLdewey:


Watch it Grothar... you're on shaky ground.
I didn't know Grothar is in Virgina??
Irene down to 90 MPH and now moving 9 MPH towards the WNW
90 MPH.
if any one cares noaa recon is up and it turn on this below so we can see what winds they are finding


NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
No change in intensity as of 5 PM

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 71.2W


Em, they lowered it to 80knots, that's 90mph, Cat 1.
5 pm
cone moved slighty east well somewhat of a little
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Exactly. I believe in being respectful, some don't. It's the differences in culture. Of course, some have different ways of being respectful, which may not be respectful in the eyes of others. Like I said, differences in culture.


i do my best to be respectful until i am attacked, then my Momma comes out in me and i lash back...but must say that i do respect you
Deepening and weakening at same time!
Quoting weatherlover94:
could someone let me know what the models look like now? are they shifting back west or farther East?


Look for yourself:



Model Collection
Irene likes toying with the blog.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, Irene is not likely at all to recurve without hitting the USA. Even if it does miss VA, it will still be heading north.. that means the NE states, New York, ect. Would be a very unnatural recurve for it to miss the US entirely.




Pretty good summary.

For argument's sake and it did totally miss the US, then considering how things looked only a day ago, then it would be a bullet dodge worthy of The Matrix.

As long as people remember that the Bahamas and T&Cs are going to get a heavy impact. Sometimes, people focus too much on the CONUS, even without any form of malice or ignorance, and forget there are other people to be hit as well.

Speaking of which, has the Caicos Sailor reported anything yet, anyone?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I also want to say that if a 15-year-old-boy is having that pathetic of a life that he has to come onto a blog and masquerade as his 65-year-old grandfather, what's it to you? As long as he doesn't extort money from you or cause you to go out of your way to give help he doesn't need, pity the poor sailor and move on.

If the gentleman is genuine, with a sickly wife and a storm on the way, I'm sure he will enjoy his weekend in Raleigh, in the comfort of his home. Your baiting of him will only make you look mean, immature and very disrespectful.

Either way, you end up looking like the "sick" one; whether the other blogger is an elder or enough of a mental patient to need to pretend to be one, you come off looking like a bully.

My social comment of the day.


+100000000000...

I've lurked here since the '09 season...really appreciate the information and enjoy the debates. But I grow a tad weary of those who seem to have learned manners from Talk Radio and civil discourse from Cable News.

Back to lurking.
1602. CCkid00
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Wake up to a category 4 being predicted to directly hit Wilmington (my location).... come home from work to nearly perfect model consensus that this will completely miss my area with very little side effects (being on the west side of the storm). Interesting.

This is a perfect example of why people dont take these storms seriously.... I gotta say, considering the models showed everyone from Texas to Maine at risk... then showed Florida, GA and SC at a very high risk... then showed NC at a very high risk... and now millions and millions of people in these states will receive little-to-nothing from Irene... Wow. Its a good thing this time, but should clear up for some of us enthusiasts why the everyday person doesnt take these things seriously until the last second

the models are only educated guesses and their error window is acknowledged. Sooooo many on this blog are only guessing, and many are not even educated guesses. i've lurked in here for 6 years. at present i am seeing names on here that i have NEVER seen and they are telling people, "it's not going here, it's going there" when they have NO IDEA what they are talking about.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, Irene is not likely at all to recurve without hitting the USA. Even if it does miss VA, it will still be heading north.. that means the NE states, New York, ect. Would be a very unnatural recurve for it to miss the US entirely.



Good point.
If it misses N.C. and is accelerating as predicted it could be in New England in a day as a powerful storm.

Quoting rv1pop:
I have come to respect you quite a bit. I thought you may have been over reacting -- but I did not 'ignore' you. Thanks for getting back on track.
POP


Thanks and you're probably right. I think I did as well, but it was for the overall good. :-)
1605. HCW
1606. keisa90
Here's a question. What effect will hurricane Irene have on bridges and homes and other buildings that have been shaken by a 6.0 earthquake? Not a major earthquake by far, but enough to shake some foundations. And if she is still a hurricane just offshore of Virginia and with a large wind field, it may not take as strong of a storm to do quite a bit of damage.
I have learned from tracking this storm that the 4 or 5 day out tracks..I dont put alot of stock in them because I have seen this hit from fla. to sc. to maybe nc. now. so a word of advice maybe we should wait and see before going into a panic 4 or 5 days out. Just saying.
I LIKE LOWERING to Cat 1 !!!
i think the problem is to many on this blog wants a HURRICANE screming down at them...when you make negative comments which they dont like to hear and im referring to the TRUTH they start to get defensive and call you a TROLL..people need to respect anyone on this blog regardless of the stupid comments they post... all you have to do is just overlook them...if they did this the blog would be a much better place...
You know somehting

Irene could become 9-1-1

911

now that is Eerie
Quoting 69Viking:


She seems to have jumped on a Sit and Spin and isn't moving much at all!


That looks like an optimal illusion to me based on the center getting devoid of convection and then a large blossom coming up. Take a look at the visible and it appears to be chugging along WNW on a consistent speed.

Post# 1491.... and no one cares.....remarkable.
Check out the weather station located at Regent Grand Hotel & Resort in Providenciales, T&C, specifically the tabular data.

Irene's eyewall is approaching & the barometer is dropping like a rock over that past 2 hours.

Link is in the 1st paragraph at the top of the page.

MZ


If Irene is down to 90 MPH this should change alot of things. The weaker this is the stronger the influence the ridge will have on it the less influence the trough should have over it. The longer this stays weak the further west the forecast track should trend. This is most likely going to actualize. I think everyone in North Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina should watch out especially if this remains weaker for a longer time than expected I do expect this to ramp up rapidly by late Wednesday into Thursday though.
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Actually don't mind children on this blog if they are respectful more so than some of the adults, and are eager to learn. There have been and are some excellent bloggers on here that appear at least to me to be minors. A child blogger on here may someday instigate or participate in a great scientific breakthrough.

Frankly, about 75% of the kids on here are the sensible ones.... OTOH, the adults sometimes make me wonder...

LOL

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I LIKE LOWERING to Cat 1 !!!


How is it currently there?
Back for a bit. I just took a look at the center fixes from recon. Not a pretty picture for TCI as they may well wind up either in or very clsoe to the NE eyewal where the really ferocious weather will be.

Storm surge is also going to be a big factor as the water shoals up in that area.

I hope everyone is away from the South facing beaches and seashore as overwash is going to be a serious issue there, particulalry as Irene will probably be intensifying as it approaches and passes over them.

Pessure is down to 976 and there is a new convective blow up which is a clear indication that the dry has been mixed out. The eye is closed off and the winds should start to rise tonight in response to the pressure fall.

the slower the storm gos the less of the ch the storm has in turning N at the last sac
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures fell Monday, as traders shrugged off any threat from Hurricane Irene and focused on forecasts for cooler weather.
-----

It's interesting how cavalier the market can be :) Are there any other LI'ers (Long Island, NY) in Red Cross agencies, OEMs, DR/BCP outfits-teams that are working on educating their locales or associates/employees on preparedness? Reading through all of the posts, it appears that the threat to Long Island cannot be determined at this time, but being a medic and in the emergency/EVAC services - time is never on the public's side when a weather system has you in their bullseye. Complacency leads to deaths, many indirect when people are locked in their homes not knowing what to do.

LI'ers are neither proficient nor do they have the knowledge for premise protection against hurricanes (plywood, stockpiling of supplies etc).

Looking to see if I'm the only LI'er tracking this with extremely limited weather knowledge (trying to learn more - great blog - thank you everyone and Masters).
1620. rkay1
They get my local forecast wrong 24 hours out.  If I have learned 1 thing from these computer models, its to ignore them, especially 72hrs+.
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Em, they lowered it to 80knots, that's 90mph, Cat 1.


I corrected the post right after... probably you missed it
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.
1623. rkay1
Conspiracy?
Quoting wolftribe2009:
You know somehting

Irene could become 9-1-1

911

now that is Eerie

So DC/baltimore could experience cat 1 conditions?
i give Irene a 30% chance of hitting the us at all right now
the NOAA HDOB (URNT15) (1) is up in the air the recon has gone home
First effects being seen on Guantanamo Bay RADAR....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&p roduct=N0R&loop=yes
The 5pm is looking worse for the delmarva to Long Island/NYC. :(
Quoting wolftribe2009:
You know somehting

Irene could become 9-1-1

911

now that is Eerie


oooohh... especially if she goes thru DC and NYC....

creepy...
1630. 900MB
Prove, T&C now 40mph sustained with gusts to 59mph.

You will see this back at Cat 2 at 8pm. Funktop getting funky green again!
Quoting kmanislander:
Back for a bit. I just took a look at the center fixes from recon. Not a pretty picture for TCI as they may well wind up either in or very clsoe to the NE eyewal where the really ferocious weather will be.

Storm surge is also going to be a big factor as the water shoals up in that area.

I hope everyone is away from the South facing beaches and seashore as overwash is going to be a serious issue there, particulalry as Irene will probably be intensifying as it approaches and passes over them.

Pessure is down to 976 and there is a new convective blow up which is a clear indication that the dry has been mixed out. The eye is closed off and the winds should start to rise tonight in response to the pressure fall.



Yeah, the winds can only go so low with the pressure continuing to fall.

She could be really bad for the Bahamas. Really not liking the new convection bursting over the center.
Quoting kmanislander:
Back for a bit. I just took a look at the center fixes from recon. Not a pretty picture for TCI as they may well wind up either in or very clsoe to the NE eyewal where the really ferocious weather will be.

Storm surge is also going to be a big factor as the water shoals up in that area.

I hope everyone is away from the South facing beaches and seashore as overwash is going to be a serious issue there, particulalry as Irene will probably be intensifying as it approaches and passes over them.

Pessure is down to 976 and there is a new convective blow up which is a clear indication that the dry has been mixed out. The eye is closed off and the winds should start to rise tonight in response to the pressure fall.



Think it will become a major hurricane by morning?
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:
If Irene is down to 90 MPH this should change alot of things. The weaker this is the stronger the influence the ridge will have on it the less influence the trough should have over it. The longer this stays weak the further west the forecast track should trend. This is most likely going to actualize. I think everyone in North Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina should watch out especially if this remains weaker for a longer time than expected I do expect this to ramp up rapidly by late Wednesday into Thursday though.

The winds have nothing to do with how much it is steered by the high.. It is the pressure of the storm. And it actually went down on the new advisory. So track shouldn't be effected at all.
The Turks and Caicos are experiencing 30-40 mph sustained winds with the highest wind gust being 56 mph, yet the NHC has them in the sustained strongest Tropical Storm Force wind field and getting into the sustained Hurricane force wind field.

Not getting it...
Quoting weatherlover94:
i give Irene a 30% chance of hitting the us at all right now

I wouldnt say that low but its less likely to hit FL if your any wheres on the east coast you should keep an eye on it thats all i have to say
000
WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT. THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 20.9N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.5N 72.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.7N 74.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.2N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.0N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 34.0N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 39.0N 74.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
1637. Seastep
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.


You can turn it to 3-day if you prefer. Choices...

And, don't look at the line. Look at the cone. It is only 33% outside the cone, even five days out, on average. That is what the cone is... historical forecast error... 67% within the cone. 33% out.

Quoting Tazmanian:
the slower the storm gos the less of the ch the storm has in turning N at the last sac


Exactly, miss the trough and models will go nuts.
Can the weakening of Irene give the storm more of a west ward track?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I LIKE LOWERING to Cat 1 !!!


Don't pay to much attention to that as I suspect the weakening trend is over. With a pressure of 976 it is only a matter of time before the winds respond by increasing. Fortunately Irene didn't get it together earlier but a new round of deep convection is occurring now. When the heavy weather arrives it will be quite nasty.
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:
If Irene is down to 90 MPH this should change alot of things. The weaker this is the stronger the influence the ridge will have on it the less influence the trough should have over it. The longer this stays weak the further west the forecast track should trend. This is most likely going to actualize. I think everyone in North Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina should watch out especially if this remains weaker for a longer time than expected I do expect this to ramp up rapidly by late Wednesday into Thursday though.




ugh i dont think a 90mph hurricane is what you calll WEAK..
Quoting Bretts9112:

I wouldnt say that low but its less likely to hit FL if your any wheres on the east coast you should keep an eye on it thats all i hvae to say


yes we are all watching but it is continuing to look less likely...im thinking an Earl 2010 track right now just off shore
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.

Because it takes an enormous amount of time to mobilize an evacuation of onshore and offshore assets, and then to mobilize post-disaster assistance, such as calling in the national guard. Giving everyone at least a week to be on notice that they MIGHT be activated is much more cost effective than trying to wrangle it all in under 48 hours. (This is especially important with nuclear plants, oil refineries, offshore platforms, and other settings that could cause a major environmental disaster.) One of the big lessons of Katrina, Ike, and Rita has been for people to get out early -- and Rita seemed to come out of nowhere. Everyone's attention was elsewhere, and suddenly there was Rita.
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.


I couldn't agree more
Quoting gulfscout:
So DC/baltimore could experience cat 1 conditions?


Conceivable, it remains to be seen if it will have made a first landfall in say NC or just skims the Outer Banks, (or even goes even farther east) It also remains to be seen how it will handle the lower SST's up there.
Irene is exactly on its forecast point from the 5 a.m. discussion for 12 hours later.

Irene is 20 mph weaker than the 5 a.m. discussion said it would be now.
I knew it was going to be just another one of those overhyped strong hurricanes that misses NC coast... this is why no one in central NC believes hurricane will hit them anymore...

My question that wasn't responsed: What's the chances of models shifting west and making landfall on Mrytle Beach? I really need to know this because someone's vacation is either going to end soon or not (I'm serious).
Just on the news now, the weatherman said that the storm needs to slow down in order to make the turn to the north, just like when we take a turn while driving a car.. They expect it to turn between now and tomorrow night.. We will see..
1649. ncstorm
The dreaded turn???

THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.
1650. LargoFl
Quoting Bassfishing123:
I have learned from tracking this storm that the 4 or 5 day out tracks..I dont put alot of stock in them because I have seen this hit from fla. to sc. to maybe nc. now. so a word of advice maybe we should wait and see before going into a panic 4 or 5 days out. Just saying.
I have to agree with you on this one, the storm as of 5pm has not made that all important turn to the north and is moving wnw still...florida northward, keep a good eye on this storm
Quoting weatherlover94:


yes we are all watching but it is continuing to look less likely...im thinking an Earl 2010 track right now just off shore

I agree with you on the part that it looks less likely to have a direct hit on the east coast would be cool to see the waves at the beaches this weekend
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Irene is exactly on its forecast point from the 5 a.m. discussion for 12 hours later.

Irene is 20 mph weaker than the 5 a.m. discussion said it would be now.



its olny 5 or 10mph weaker not 20
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
So question for all, and I am not trying to be mean or disrespectfull to anyone by saying this. But why post a hurricane track 5 days out, with the knowledge that is likely 90% chance of being wrong(that far out)? You get some peoples attention when you do that and they start paying attention. But then the track changes and I believe this to have a negative effect on the general public taking a storm seriously when they should. This can be very true along the SE coast where it seems like every storm the past couple years has come out the coast and then turned away at the last minute. People see the NHC predicting a hit somewhere in 5 days and they will start ignoring it becuse there have been so many bads calls that far out. Once again just stating what I see and I am in no way attacking NHC or others, they do thier best with what information is presented to them.


See, that's the way you bring up a disagreement.

Anyway, the NHC has to go with what they have at the forecast time. A 5-day cone is needed to warn people of an upcoming strike. The NHC emphasizes strongly to not focus on the actual line because of their average 5-day track error. North Carolina was not originally in the cone, and now they look to receive a direct hit. However, things change that far out and NC still has plenty of time to prepare for a strike, even now. Overall the 5-day cone is very useful. If you choose to ignore the cone because of history, then you might be history. If you're in the cone, pay attention. That's all you can do.
1654. HCW
Quoting kmanislander:


Don't pay to much attention to that as I suspect the weakening trend is over. With a pressure of 976 it is only a matter of time before the winds respond by increasing. Fortunately Irene didn't get it together earlier but a new round of deep convection is occurring now. When the heavy weather arrives it will be quite nasty.


I understand, it's better than then saying it's cat 3 already at 5pm
I realize I am looking for any positives I can, while being ready/ resigned to getting a major whack
Quoting summerland:

Because it takes an enormous amount of time to mobilize an evacuation of onshore and offshore assets, and then to mobilize post-disaster assistance, such as calling in the national guard. Giving everyone at least a week to be on notice that they MIGHT be activated is much more cost effective than trying to wrangle it all in under 48 hours. (This is especially important with nuclear plants, oil refineries, offshore platforms, and other settings that could cause a major environmental disaster.) One of the big lessons of Katrina, Ike, and Rita has been for people to get out early -- and Rita seemed to come out of nowhere. Everyone's attention was elsewhere, and suddenly there was Rita.


I agree that emergency managers/ local governments should be getting ready very early but really the general public should generally not be stirred to a panic until it is at most 72 hours out, which leaves plenty of time for evacuation decisions/ gathering supplies.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Exactly, miss the trough and models will go nuts.


That indirectly answered my question lol.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I knew it was going to be just another one of those overhyped strong hurricanes that misses NC coast... this is why no one in central NC believes hurricane will hit them anymore...

My question that wasn't responsed: What's the chances of models shifting west and making landfall on Mrytle Beach? I really need to know this because someone's vacation is either going to end soon or not (I'm serious).



I beleive the reality is that it is to far away to know for sure yet. You may have to wait til mid day tomorrow to know with some confidents. The chance exsists, MB is within the cone still.
looking more and more like Irene is a complete Whiff to the CONUS
1660. rkay1
Here comes the NYC casters.  This storm is like a giant roll call.  We have gone from FL all the way to NY. 
Quoting Chapelhill:
The 5pm is looking worse for the delmarva to Long Island/NYC. :(

1661. ncstorm
Quoting ncstorm:
The dreaded turn???

THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.


this is suspect to me..how can a weak trough turn a major out to sea?
Quoting Bretts9112:

I agree with you on the part that it looks less likely to have a direct hit on the east coast would be cool to see the waves at the beaches this weekend


oh yes that would be nice...but any time these models can start shifting back west again...even if NC misses a direct hit i say New England is still going to get it
now that is Eerie

That is not the only thing eerie; tomorrow is the 19th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's landfall.
This storm continues to strengthen. Pressure overrides wind speed. The wind speed will catch up to the pressure. Always does. Watch the pressure. Large explosion of convection going up right now.
Recently updated model runs (full resolution), click here for interactive model map.

...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE...

Quoting SeanyBoy:


That indirectly answered my question lol.


There is almost no way it will miss that trough, sure the trough could be a little weaker/stronger than anticipated, but it would be nearly impossible for it to completely miss it.
Worry when it starts to steer clear from Hispaniola. Looks like it did what Ike did when he was in the GOM, the pressure plummeted but not the winds.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Think it will become a major hurricane by morning?


Not out of the realm of possibility, provided Irene does not ingest anymore dry air.
You should not make any plans (ANY) Based on what any blogger says on this site!!!!!   React with accurate information from your local authorities.  There are a lot of people on this site that look like they know what they are talking about but are not Mets.  Trust you local met he or she was hired to know what they are talking about.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I knew it was going to be just another one of those overhyped strong hurricanes that misses NC coast... this is why no one in central NC believes hurricane will hit them anymore...

My question that wasn't responsed: What's the chances of models shifting west and making landfall on Mrytle Beach? I really need to know this because someone's vacation is either going to end soon or not (I'm serious).



1670. rkay1
Yep.  The only thing you can be sure about is wherever the models point, the storm wont go to.
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:



I beleive the reality is that it is to far away to know for sure yet. You may have to wait til mid day tomorrow to know with some confidents. The chance exsists, MB is within the cone still.

Quoting ncstorm:


this is suspect to me..how can a weak trough turn a major out to sea?


Because it will not be pulling the storm northward, it will come in behind after Irene is up near NC and VA and push it out to sea.
1672. ncstorm
Quoting alvarig1263:


Because it will not be pulling the storm northward, it will come in behind after Irene is up near NC and VA and push it out to sea.


well, how can it push it if its weak?
Based on the 5 PM update I think I will delay my planned evacuation by a day. The weather folks still seem to think it will head even more east and that is comforting.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I agree that emergency managers/ local governments should be getting ready very early but really the general public should generally not be stirred to a panic until it is at most 72 hours out, which leaves plenty of time for evacuation decisions/ gathering supplies.

Oh, I agree. The panic-mongering is ridiculous. And ultimately unhelpful, since people get so sick of it that they ignore the message entirely.

The way the news stations and weathercasters are all vying for ratings and hyping this to be the storm of the century just creates more panic, more of a mob mentality when people rush out to get last minute supplies.

The point is to be aware and prepared in time to act, not to be paralyzed with panic by the time action is finally required.
Quoting dracko19:


That looks like an optimal illusion to me based on the center getting devoid of convection and then a large blossom coming up. Take a look at the visible and it appears to be chugging along WNW on a consistent speed.



It looks like it's not moving much in the last few frames of the visible but like the NHC said it's still moving WNW at 9 MPH, slowing down from earlier advisories if you want you can go back and look. I think the slow down is now a result of her starting to move more NW instead of WNW.
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:



I beleive the reality is that it is to far away to know for sure yet. You may have to wait til mid day tomorrow to know with some confidents. The chance exsists, MB is within the cone still.
sigh ok. They are in Las Vegas (having bad time, I heard) and they left their late teenager childrens behind in Charleston as well as family shop. They are not sure whatever to return to Charleston if Irene is going to hit it or not because Irene is no threat.
1677. Vero1
Quoting NWHoustonMom:


oooohh... especially if she goes thru DC and NYC....

creepy...
And if it slows down and hit NYC 2 days later it will on 9/1/11


The central dense overcast is really building up now just like yesterday at this time. (dur min)

Tonight Hispaniola isn't in the way.

The NHC predicted the transition from CAT 2 to CAT 3 would be tonight, I'd say they were right on the money and Irene's about to put on quite a show.

Don't be surprised by the rapid pressure drop and windspeed increases to 120 overnight tonight.
From the latest NHC discussion

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


There is almost no way it will miss that trough, sure the trough could be a little weaker/stronger than anticipated, but it would be nearly impossible for it to completely miss it.


Irene is moving slowly and it is a large storm. It all depends now on timing, and the strength of the trough.
Quoting TerraNova:
Recently updated model runs (full resolution), click here for interactive model map.

...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE...


Looks like part of the track of Hurricane Bob
Quoting MississippiWx:


I don't know about that...A stronger outbreak would signify to me a stronger trof. I'm not so sure that would provide enough heat in the atmosphere to extend the ridge west, considering it would be evolving from cold-core processes.


I'll illustrate what I mean.

Using the most recent run of the NAM model...

Note the cold front associated with the next trough.







Note how quickly it lifts in the last frame and how it stalls along the coast.

1683. Gorty
Oh dear, more of a threat to me here in western Mass. 85 mph WITH HIGHER GUSTS is going to deal lots of damage up here...
Gonzo is in the Northern Bahamas chucking dropsondes. Kermit took off from near Tampa, flew across South FL toward the Bahamas & Irene, ~15,000' with the SFMR on. AF300 is headed back to ST Croix after four center fixes.
Quoting ncstorm:


well, how can it push it if its weak?


Irene is already heading northward, it will just coax it along per say.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
From the latest NHC discussion

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.



plzs get too your point
I don't think there is actually a reason for doing it, maybe more of a not thinking about the reason to not do it. I could imagine that years ago when the internet first was developing there was a much smaller group of qualified people who even found this information. And as many things have done on the internet, they evolve, and not everyone understands the info provided, and many more use it incorrectly out of not fully understanding the information provided.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
You should not make any plans (ANY) Based on what any blogger says on this site!!!!!   React with accurate information from your local authorities.  There are a lot of people on this site that look like they know what they are talking about but are not Mets.  Trust you local met he or she was hired to know what they are talking about.



Really great advice, if you have ever been to any NWS office (much less the NHC) you would be amazed at the amount of technology and expertise present. There are some very intelligent people that post here, but still I doubt anyone here has access to AWIPS and all the other tools the NWS has. Also your local authorities get their information straight from the NWS so they are also good to get advice from.
1689. Gorty
Link

Oh boy...
1690. bwat
Quoting poknsnok:
looking more and more like Irene is a complete Whiff to the CONUS
Would be nice, but shes still 4 days out. I like the way the models are trending, but the same models went from a southern florida hit, to a wilmington nc hit in two day. Things can and most likely will change. Perhaps not a drastic change, but very much warrents watching.
The 5 PM NHC forecast track has Irene center cutting Buxton, NC (Cape Hatteras)
1692. ncstorm
Quoting alvarig1263:


Irene is already heading northward, it will just coax it along per say.


a weak trough pushing a major out to sea? I dont see it..
Quoting sullivanweather:


I'll illustrate what I mean.

Using the most recent run of the NAM model...

Note the cold front associated with the next trough.







Note how quickly it lifts in the last frame and how it stalls along the coast.




that is a lot closer too the USA on that mode run
The earthquake is getting more attention than Irene on our news.
1695. Patrap
Quoting ncstorm:


a weak trough pushing a major out to sea? I dont see it..


Well then I don't know what more to tell you. ;)
5:00pm Advisory
*Click on image for enlarged version
Quoting summerland:

Oh, I agree. The panic-mongering is ridiculous. And ultimately unhelpful, since people get so sick of it that they ignore the message entirely.

The way the news stations and weathercasters are all vying for ratings and hyping this to be the storm of the century just creates more panic, more of a mob mentality when people rush out to get last minute supplies.

The point is to be aware and prepared in time to act, not to be paralyzed with panic by the time action is finally required.


Agreed. Here at local emergency services, we are all ready on Long Island. Ever since most insurance companies stopped writing home owner policies for the Eastern parts of the island, we knew something big would arrive one day - not saying this is it, but mobilization as far as supplies started on Monday. NYC OEM is also tracking the hurricane and guess what - if nothing happens, we just load everything (supplies) back up on our buses and trailers and put them back into our storage depots.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I understand, it's better than then saying it's cat 3 already at 5pm
I realize I am looking for any positives I can, while being ready/ resigned to getting a major whack


No question there are positives. If not for that jog to the West last night bringing it close to Hispaniola which interrupted the intensifcation process you would probably be looking at a CAT 3 right now. I do believe this will go back to CAT 2 before it passes you by though.

Rain rates could be 3 inches per hour based upon the new round of convection that will soon arrive.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I have been wondering where they are to. I miss there input. I know some said they where leaving because of all the dang trolls. It just blows my mind because we have a serious Hurricane on our hands and these idiots come in here and pick on folks and start crap in the middle of this. But I sit back and lurk and learn and when i see them I start - - every chance I get and ! ! . Enough is enough. I hope we here from BAHA and CRS. I read earlier BAHA has a blog on what's going on where he lives. Just go to his name.

I hope everyone stays safe that is in her path.

sheri
Alot of these guys go to work. Levi is at home for the first time in a while... prolly enjoying himself with that instead of with Irene... Thanks for the well wishes, Sheri. I also want to add that when these guys are not on, WE are the only experts left. It behooves us to pay attention to what they say and learn how to explain it to others. Frankly, it's how I developed some skill [the little I have] in forecasting. Learn from others; explain to others.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I knew it was going to be just another one of those overhyped strong hurricanes that misses NC coast... this is why no one in central NC believes hurricane will hit them anymore...

My question that wasn't responsed: What's the chances of models shifting west and making landfall on Mrytle Beach? I really need to know this because someone's vacation is either going to end soon or not (I'm serious).


Yeah, its real smart to say that right now...
downgrade on the winds, and the pressure continues to drop! whats with this?
pressure still dropping... almost Category 3 in pressure term. However, winds is not supporting Category 2 storm at this time. I believes it will explodes tonight and be Category 3 by 5 am update. Not will be surprised to see Category 4 later tomorrow, but I think Category 5 is highly unlikely now. People on NC coast should be getting ready for Category 3/4 storm just in case it get stronger than NHC thoughts.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
At my protected location on Provo
having sustained 30-35 with gusts to 50 mph
from ESE
my Bar is 29.61 falling (uncalibrated)
power has flickered a couple of times


Here is a link to a Tumblr page I just made with 4 personal weather stations from Southern Bahamas locations (Turks and Caicos and Emerald Bay):

Southern Bahamas - Live Weather Stations
1705. ncstorm
Quoting alvarig1263:


Well then I don't know what more to tell you. ;)


LOL..thanks though
Hopefully the Dropsonde's data it gathers tonight will be fully entered into the computer models for tomorrow, as only 16 of them we're put in today for some unknown reason. GFS wasn't getting the whole picture IMO. Could've had more data...
Next, with the 500mb charts...

I drew lines representing the base of the trough and trough axis. As well as lines connecting Bermuda with the crest of the offshore ridge.

Note how when the trough digs the ridge, in response, builds. Since the front will be lifting out fast, leaving Irene behind for the second trough, the building of the ridge will keep Irene from recurving.





Lets hope the NHC is correct on the forecast track for Irene because if not, there will be alot to explain.
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..thanks though


Your welcome. Maybe I can look into it more and be able to explain it better, or maybe someone else could?
Quoting SPLbeater:
downgrade on the winds, and the pressure continues to drop! whats with this?


Means Irene is spreading out.
1711. Gorty
To those that say an entire miss, STOP! New England and the Northeast are in grave danger!
Quoting sullivanweather:
Next, with the 500mb charts...

I drew lines representing the base of the trough and trough axis. As well as lines connecting Bermuda with the crest of the offshore ridge.

Note how when the trough digs the ridge, in response, builds. Since the front will be lifting out fast, leaving Irene behind for the second trough, the building of the ridge will keep Irene from recurving.









and still thats comeing vary close too the USA
Cleaner view of the models and the interesting trend that NHC mentioned in their 5 PM discussion...

Quoting SPLbeater:
downgrade on the winds, and the pressure continues to drop! whats with this?


Winds generally follow pressure. It's clear that Irene suffered today, but no longer. Winds will be back up soon.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Lets hope the NHC is correct on the forecast track for Irene because if not, there will be alot to explain.


Lucy ... you got some splainin to do ..
Quoting Gorty:
To those that say an entire miss, STOP! New England and the Northeast are in grave danger!


Florida's in grave danger! ;-)
1717. WXHEAD
Quoting alvarig1263:


Exactly, miss the trough and models will go nuts.


Well, people on the blog go nuts, the models just draw new lines.
Quoting SPLbeater:
downgrade on the winds, and the pressure continues to drop! whats with this?


Look for another round of explosive reintinsification soon, i think.... convection is looking strong right now
Quoting TerraNova:
Cleaner view of the models and the interesting trend that NHC mentioned in their 5 PM discussion...





i think mode runs are too far E and could turn back W tonight i this dont see it
Quoting Bluestorm5:
pressure still dropping... almost Category 3 in pressure term. However, winds is not supporting Category 2 storm at this time. I believes it will explodes tonight and be Category 3 by 5 am update. Not will be surprised to see Category 4 later tomorrow, but I think Category 5 is highly unlikely now. People on NC coast should be getting ready for Category 3/4 storm just in case it get stronger than NHC thoughts.


I support that statement. this thing has got to have the wind speeds jump higher then last sometime due to the pressure
Me to high level FEMA official this AM: "If y'all can help, great!!! If not, please get out of our way..." Haven't heard another word from them...guess that answers that...
Quoting WXHEAD:


Well, people on the blog go nuts, the models just draw new lines.


This is true... lol
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs get too your point


Tazmanian the point is that the upper level atmosphere is not conducive for Irene to reach Cat 4.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Florida's in grave danger! ;-)

Is there any other kind ??
Quoting SPLbeater:
downgrade on the winds, and the pressure continues to drop! whats with this?


Lack of inflow. Pressures continue to slowly drop in Irene's core but the mountains of Hispaniola are preventing air from entering the system from the south.
My intent is not to offend anyone on this site but it is an amateur site with some very skilled and intelligent people.  A few like Levi really know what they are talking about but it is hard to weed that out unless you know everyones credentials....   But I still wouldn't trust my life and interests to what is said in this Blog.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Really great advice, if you have ever been to any NWS office (much less the NHC) you would be amazed at the amount of technology and expertise present. There are some very intelligent people that post here, but still I doubt anyone here has access to AWIPS and all the other tools the NWS has. Also your local authorities get their information straight from the NWS so they are also good to get advice from.

i really think thats a good thing to delay for another day...the way it looks now cape hatteras may just get a brush by some gale force winds and some squalls...nothing to drastic...they will also be on the weak side the strong side of IRENE will be sea bound,...
Looks like a more northerly component towards the 4/5 day range is starting to rear its head. This is definitely nowhere near to going out to sea for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast regions.
Cape May, NJ should take a direct hit!
Quoting marknmelb:

Is there any other kind ??


Don't make me order a Code Red!
I must agree a lot of people that show up here for major events have no clue what they are talking about. I will admit, I am a bit of a lurker in these blogs, and usually comment much more during the winter months.... as Nor'Easters and other New England winter weather events are more my specialty. However, I have been researching and forecasting the weather since I was 5 years old, and I am 28 now. While I do consider myself a bit of a weather buff, I know there are more well trained people than me... with a higher education. That being said, I can't help but to be made sick when I see people claiming that Irene is in the process of breaking up (obviously confusing a temporary slowing of the strengthening process via a little bit of dry air and some mountains) turn on their troll-machines and start criticizing people who are not forecasting this to be a "fish" storm.

As a matter of fact, we have seen quite a bit of model consensus over the last 48 hours, and even a little longer. The models have consistently depicted Irene striking somewhere between the SC/NC border, and passing just east of Cape Cod. This "cone" has not changed all that much, but it has shrank a bit... resulting in much of the Carolinas possibly being spared, but with an increased risk to New England and the upper Mid Atlantic. As we speak, the latest GFS and ECMWF models both show Irene taking a track up through or just off the NC coastline, and impacting western Long Island/CT. This is a solution that has been near the center of the "cone of uncertainty" the entire time... yet people claim that the models have been unreliable?

Anyone who knows anything about computer models and tropical systems see it as an obvious fact that models do not pick up on tropical systems and their tracks well until they are well developed. Yet, ever since Irene became a Hurricane the forecast track and the vast majority of the models have remained fairly consistent. Is this going to be a fish storm? Maybe. Is this storm going to make landfall? Maybe. But one thing is for sure, nobody knows for sure... and the models have likely made more accurate predictions than most of the human beings commenting here.

As for all the bickering between members, personally I would like to see the site moderate this a bit better, and eliminate the trouble makers.

As for my personal feeling about the storm, I think the track will fall between the last two most recent runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. There is no real reason to believe this storm will fly harmlessly out to sea, at the moment anyway - considering the ridge to the east of the storm track, and the not-too-impressive troughs helping steer it northward. I have a hard time believe such weak features will save the entire coastline from impacts, but if I'm wrong... heck, I don't feel bad, and no true weather buff or meteorologist should feel bad or feel like they failed the public in any way if they end up being wrong. Who's really failing the public? Well... the public fails the public more than any meteorologist ever has. They are the ones who expect computer models to have an exact track more than a week in advance.. and they are the ones who let their guard down based on shallow reasoning such as "well the forecast was wrong before so it will be wrong this time too."

Quit finger pointing, and quit trying to suggest that your forecasts, hopecasting, landcasting, fishcasting, whatever you want to call it is the definitively RIGHT solution. I've seen people screaming "fish storm" here and I've seen people calling for mass destruction of the entire US Coastline, when in fact there is no definitive reason to believe either will happen, they are both still possibilities. All we can do is take what info we have NOW and make an educated assessment, and forecast the most likely scenarios based on our knowledge. But for people with little to no forecasting experience or in depth education to come in here and criticize anyone, especially the educated and dedicated meteorologists of this site and elsewhere... you should be ashamed... and I wish you would take your bull elsewhere.

Sorry for the rant, but I've seen more pointless non-sense posted here than useful info about Irene over the last 24 hours. Let's get serious people.
do.Quoting leftlink:


Here is a link to a Tumblr page I just made with 4 personal weather stations from Southern Bahamas locations (Turks and Caicos and Emerald Bay):

Southern Bahamas - Live Weather Stations



Thanks for the work you are doing.
Quoting Thrawst:


Still rather partly cloudy here in Western New Providence.. however wind is starting to increase now. expecting high end cat.1 to low end Cat 2 at peak of storm.
It's raining with light winds at my location [SW quadrant of New Providence].

Looks like little or no change to the forecast track through 72 hours.
Quoting thunderbug91:


Look for another round of explosive reintinsification soon, i think.... convection is looking strong right now


Yes, RI doesnt seem far away now that land interaction troubles are decreasing as we speak
-
Quoting LIRedCross:


Agreed. Here at local emergency services, we are all ready on Long Island. Ever since most insurance companies stopped writing home owner policies for the Eastern parts of the island, we knew something big would arrive one day - not saying this is it, but mobilization as far as supplies started on Monday. NYC OEM is also tracking the hurricane and guess what - if nothing happens, we just load everything (supplies) back up on our buses and trailers and put them back into our storage depots.

Yes, exactly. If it doesn't get used this time, just wait a few weeks.


equals...

Recon. about 435 miles from the center of Irene. I'm curious to see if the pressure continues to drop and if the winds have responded to those pressure drops yet.
Quoting TerraNova:
Cleaner view of the models and the interesting trend that NHC mentioned in their 5 PM discussion...



We discussed this last night, actually.

Quoting sullivanweather:



Those trough will be there, stacked up one after the next. However, notice their orientation; negatively tilted. This, combined with the Bermuda high offshore being so far north will keep this thing on a north-northeast heading.



Here's the GFS model for 2am EDT Sunday night/monday morning. You can see how the two troughs over the eastern half of the nation are both digging towards the southeast while that high offshore remains anchored there. Not good.



(a pic would be nice)

This is still very much a timing thing people. I don't think the trough will be as amplified as the models are thinking-IMO. I don't see that weak trough pulling this thing-JMO SC and NC are still very much in play as the NHC cone includes.
"Blob" and low pressure off GA have dissipated. No worries about those factors...
1742. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


1743. scott39
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
I must agree a lot of people that show up here for major events have no clue what they are talking about. I will admit, I am a bit of a lurker in these blogs, and usually comment much more during the winter months.... as Nor'Easters and other New England winter weather events are more my specialty. However, I have been researching and forecasting the weather since I was 5 years old, and I am 28 now. While I do consider myself a bit of a weather buff, I know there are more well trained people than me... with a higher education. That being said, I can't help but to be made sick when I see people claiming that Irene is in the process of breaking up (obviously confusing a temporary slowing of the strengthening process via a little bit of dry air and some mountains) turn on their troll-machines and start criticizing people who are not forecasting this to be a "fish" storm.

As a matter of fact, we have seen quite a bit of model consensus over the last 48 hours, and even a little longer. The models have consistently depicted Irene striking somewhere between the SC/NC border, and passing just east of Cape Cod. This "cone" has not changed all that much, but it has shrank a bit... resulting in much of the Carolinas possibly being spared, but with an increased risk to New England and the upper Mid Atlantic. As we speak, the latest GFS and ECMWF models both show Irene taking a track up through or just off the NC coastline, and impacting western Long Island/CT. This is a solution that has been near the center of the "cone of uncertainty" the entire time... yet people claim that the models have been unreliable?

Anyone who knows anything about computer models and tropical systems see it as an obvious fact that models do not pick up on tropical systems and their tracks well until they are well developed. Yet, ever since Irene became a Hurricane the forecast track and the vast majority of the models have remained fairly consistent. Is this going to be a fish storm? Maybe. Is this storm going to make landfall? Maybe. But one thing is for sure, nobody knows for sure... and the models have likely made more accurate predictions than most of the human beings commenting here.

As for all the bickering between members, personally I would like to see the site moderate this a bit better, and eliminate the trouble makers.

As for my personal feeling about the storm, I think the track will fall between the last two most recent runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. There is no real reason to believe this storm will fly harmlessly out to sea, at the moment anyway - considering the ridge to the east of the storm track, and the not-too-impressive troughs helping steer it northward. I have a hard time believe such weak features will save the entire coastline from impacts, but if I'm wrong... heck, I don't feel back, and no true weather buff or meteorologist should feel bad or feel like they failed the public in any way if they end up being wrong. Who's really failing the public? Well... the public fails the public more than any meteorologist ever has. They are the ones who expect computer models to have an exact track more than a week in advance.. and they are the ones who let their guard down based on shallow reasoning such as "well the forecast was wrong before so it will be wrong this time too."

Quit finger pointing, and quit trying to suggest that your forecasts, hopecasting, landcasting, fishcasting, whatever you want to call it is the definitively RIGHT solution. I've seen people screaming "fish storm" here and I've seen people calling for mass destruction of the entire US Coastline, when in fact there is no definitive reason to believe either will happen, they are both still possibilities. All we can do is take what info we have NOW and make an educated assessment, and forecast the most likely scenarios based on out knowledge. But for people with little to no forecasting experience or in depth education to come in here and criticize anyone, especially the educated and dedicated meteorologists of this site and elsewhere... you should be ashamed... and I wish you would take your bull elsewhere.

Sorry for the rant, but I've seen more pointless non-sense posted here than useful info about Irene over the last 24 hours. Let's get serious people.
1744. Grothar
Nice thunderstorms over central Africa.

The chances of Irene taking the exact NHC track are slim to none. Irene is very close to hitting SC, even on the exact track of the NHC. The trends farther and farther east are nice, but it's not over until the fat lady sings.

The OBX and New England are still in the forecast track. New Englad probably won't be dealing with a major, though, as Irene will most likely be struggling with dry continental air at that time. Even still, she could be a disaster.


Quoting BrockBerlin:


Really great advice, if you have ever been to any NWS office (much less the NHC) you would be amazed at the amount of technology and expertise present. There are some very intelligent people that post here, but still I doubt anyone here has access to AWIPS and all the other tools the NWS has. Also your local authorities get their information straight from the NWS so they are also good to get advice from.
You are NOT lying. I asked NWS Raleigh if I can have a tour. They said sure and dated the tour for April 16th (yep, NC outbreak occurred that date). On morning of April 16th, I went on SPC site (as usual during tornado season) and saw NC under HIGH RISK. NWS Raleigh called me to move the tour to next weekend because they are busy with the storm. We all know what happened on April 16th and NWS Raleigh saved many lives by getting tornado warnings correctly in most cases. Next week, I went to NC State for NWS tour. They only got 3 or 4 people running one shift at the time (can be up to 10 during MAJOR events) running MANY models, forecasts, radars, satellite images, flood stages, measurement, etc. They said they got 20 more members of NWS team on the field doing measurements. They also were working on reports from April 16th outbreak and they explained what happened with EF-3 Sanford/Raleigh tornado and explained it ALMOST got to EF-4, but the winds measurements didn't support it. Trust me, NWS offices KNOW what they are doing.
This guy had REAL DAMAGE....

1748. air360
I really dont have model support or big evidence...but just thinking about what i have seen and read on everything and wondering a few things...since they are talking about a possible bend back to the west towards the end of the period.... if the storm actually slowed down some (as it showed in 12z run compared to 06z models) could that bend happen earlier than the track shows and "cover" more or NC/VA than currently forecast even though the initial track is more east?

**this isn't wishcasting...its trying to understand how everything works together and the possible outcomes overall**
1749. scott39
I didnt mean to post 1731.---sorry
Irene growing "pole-ward" again. Intensifying?
1731 - plus 1,000 if I could. Thank you, Sir (or Ma'am)

Quoting MississippiWx:
The chances of Irene taking the exact NHC track are slim to none. Irene is very close to hitting SC, even on the exact track of the NHC. The trends farther and farther east are nice, but it's not over until the fat lady sings.

The OBX and New England are still in the forecast track. New Englad probably won't be dealing with a major, though, as Irene will most likely be struggling with dry continental air at that time. Even still, she could be a disaster.


I just hope it doesn't pull "Hugo"... turning at the last moments is bad stuff to deal with, so I would keep telling people along SC/NC coast to get ready and keep the eye on the cone.
since there's a bit of blog bashing going on...let me add this:

I've spoken by phone today with an even dozen WU bloggers...and, without exception, they have been some of the nicest, smartest, most caring people I've ever dealt with......you know who you are...
Quoting rchira1:


***ALERT***


What happens if this storm continues on this wnw track and does not make that turn its supposed to make? Where would the storm hit? SOUTH FLORIDA ?


Remember Andrew. It was coming towards south florida but all of the computer models and weathermen said it would not hit south florida and it was going to make a turn away from s florida. the next morning, they said it missed the turn and now coming straight at south florida . everybody had less than 24 hours to get ready and that evening it came.


***Voice Your Opinions On This***

You also have to think that was 19 years ago technology has improved greatly since then
1756. scott39
Quoting sullivanweather:
Next, with the 500mb charts...

I drew lines representing the base of the trough and trough axis. As well as lines connecting Bermuda with the crest of the offshore ridge.

Note how when the trough digs the ridge, in response, builds. Since the front will be lifting out fast, leaving Irene behind for the second trough, the building of the ridge will keep Irene from recurving.





How is the intensity of Irene being lowered in the forecsat, going to play out in the track?
1757. ncstorm
Quoting SCwannabe:
This is still very much a timing thing people. I don't think the trough will be as amplified as the models are thinking-IMO. I don't see that weak trough pulling this thing-JMO SC and NC are still very much in play as the NHC cone includes.


I think the fact that the NHC called it weak says a lot..
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I LIKE LOWERING to Cat 1 !!!
You ain't the only one.... lol ... much harder to get to cat 4/5 before exiting the Bahamas...
Quoting rchira1:


***ALERT***


What happens if this storm continues on this wnw track and does not make that turn its supposed to make? Where would the storm hit? SOUTH FLORIDA ?


Remember Andrew. It was coming towards south florida but all of the computer models and weathermen said it would not hit south florida and it was going to make a turn away from s florida. the next morning, they said it missed the turn and now coming straight at south florida . everybody had less than 24 hours to get ready and that evening it came.


***Voice Your Opinions On This***


It won't happen. Let's just put it that way. It's a different situation than with Andrew.

Anyway, we have 19 years more of study and new technology now. She's going up the coast somewhere east of Florida.
Quoting rchira1:


***ALERT***


What happens if this storm continues on this wnw track and does not make that turn its supposed to make? Where would the storm hit? SOUTH FLORIDA ?


Remember Andrew. It was coming towards south florida but all of the computer models and weathermen said it would not hit south florida and it was going to make a turn away from s florida. the next morning, they said it missed the turn and now coming straight at south florida . everybody had less than 24 hours to get ready and that evening it came.


***Voice Your Opinions On This***


There are a few things that would need to happen atmospherically for that scenario to take place. I certainly am not ruling it out as with this system already and a countless number of systems in the past have just outright fooled all the weathermen and super computers. So to be on the safe side if anyone lives in S FL, like myself, I would stay tuned in to the latest....
1761. Patrap
Quoting presslord:
since there's a bit of blog bashing going on...let me add this:

I've spoken by phone today with an even dozen WU bloggers...and, without exception, they have been some of the nicest, smartest, most caring people I've ever dealt with......you know who you are...


Oh thank you :)
Eye popping out again directly south of Turks and caicos, moving due west it seems, :/
Quoting alvarig1263:


There are a few things that would need to happen atmospherically for that scenario to take place. I certainly am not ruling it out as with this system already and a countless number of systems in the past have just outright fooled all the weathermen and super computers. So to be on the safe side if anyone lives in S FL, like myself, I would stay tuned in to the latest....


Definitely
Hey, Va Beach - all done prepping? Lots of trees up Little Neck way.
Great image of that CDO Patrap!



The "eye" feature from this morning has filled in, dropping pressures, then boom tonight we'll see the nice beautiful rippled outflow.

She's going to get real pretty tonight.

I predict a 10 nautical mile eye in the morning, over that hot water, she's going to be tight!
90L will probably receive an upgrade in percentage later tonight in the TWO. Nice flare-up over the center.



1768. palmpt
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
I must agree a lot of people that show up here for major events have no clue what they are talking about. I will admit, I am a bit of a lurker in these blogs, and usually comment much more during the winter months.... as Nor'Easters and other New England winter weather events are more my specialty. However, I have been researching and forecasting the weather since I was 5 years old, and I am 28 now. While I do consider myself a bit of a weather buff, I know there are more well trained people than me... with a higher education. That being said, I can't help but to be made sick when I see people claiming that Irene is in the process of breaking up (obviously confusing a temporary slowing of the strengthening process via a little bit of dry air and some mountains) turn on their troll-machines and start criticizing people who are not forecasting this to be a "fish" storm.

As a matter of fact, we have seen quite a bit of model consensus over the last 48 hours, and even a little longer. The models have consistently depicted Irene striking somewhere between the SC/NC border, and passing just east of Cape Cod. This "cone" has not changed all that much, but it has shrank a bit... resulting in much of the Carolinas possibly being spared, but with an increased risk to New England and the upper Mid Atlantic. As we speak, the latest GFS and ECMWF models both show Irene taking a track up through or just off the NC coastline, and impacting western Long Island/CT. This is a solution that has been near the center of the "cone of uncertainty" the entire time... yet people claim that the models have been unreliable?

Anyone who knows anything about computer models and tropical systems see it as an obvious fact that models do not pick up on tropical systems and their tracks well until they are well developed. Yet, ever since Irene became a Hurricane the forecast track and the vast majority of the models have remained fairly consistent. Is this going to be a fish storm? Maybe. Is this storm going to make landfall? Maybe. But one thing is for sure, nobody knows for sure... and the models have likely made more accurate predictions than most of the human beings commenting here.

As for all the bickering between members, personally I would like to see the site moderate this a bit better, and eliminate the trouble makers.

As for my personal feeling about the storm, I think the track will fall between the last two most recent runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. There is no real reason to believe this storm will fly harmlessly out to sea, at the moment anyway - considering the ridge to the east of the storm track, and the not-too-impressive troughs helping steer it northward. I have a hard time believe such weak features will save the entire coastline from impacts, but if I'm wrong... heck, I don't feel bad, and no true weather buff or meteorologist should feel bad or feel like they failed the public in any way if they end up being wrong. Who's really failing the public? Well... the public fails the public more than any meteorologist ever has. They are the ones who expect computer models to have an exact track more than a week in advance.. and they are the ones who let their guard down based on shallow reasoning such as "well the forecast was wrong before so it will be wrong this time too."

Quit finger pointing, and quit trying to suggest that your forecasts, hopecasting, landcasting, fishcasting, whatever you want to call it is the definitively RIGHT solution. I've seen people screaming "fish storm" here and I've seen people calling for mass destruction of the entire US Coastline, when in fact there is no definitive reason to believe either will happen, they are both still possibilities. All we can do is take what info we have NOW and make an educated assessment, and forecast the most likely scenarios based on our knowledge. But for people with little to no forecasting experience or in depth education to come in here and criticize anyone, especially the educated and dedicated meteorologists of this site and elsewhere... you should be ashamed... and I wish you would take your bull elsewhere.

Sorry for the rant, but I've seen more pointless non-sense posted here than useful info about Irene over the last 24 hours. Let's get serious people.


That is a show nuff lecture.
5:00pm Advisory
*Click on image for enlarged version
Quoting scott39:
How is the intensity of Irene being lowered in the forecsat, going to play out in the track?


the intensity forecast, in this case, will be adjusted according to current intensification trends. If a round of rapid intensification ensues, I would not be surprised to see the forecast upped significantly. If, for some reason, the storm does not intensify as much... the forecast could be lowered. However, logically speaking the Hurricane is in a decent environment and warm water for modest-to-moderate intensification. My feeling is that there is a moderate risk of it reaching strength higher than the official forecast. But that remains to be seen.

Edit - The hurricane has weakened slightly, although it is probably temporary the intensity forecasts have been nudged downward. You can see my point. A lot of the strength rests on what the storm does, not on what is predicted. Interestingly enough, more and more models show Irene either not curving to the northeast, or turning back to the north after a short northeast stint. This in response to a weak trough digging into the southeast states behind Irene. This is somewhat alarming, since it is quite similar to the track of the Hurricane of 1938. But will it be as intense? Will it happen this way at all? Questions still yet to be answered.
GFS running. 0 hr.

Quoting BahaHurican:
You ain't the only one.... lol ... much harder to get to cat 4/5 before exiting the Bahamas...


Not really, all those winds gotta do is catch up to the pressure drop and Irene is right back in the saddle. But better for you ppl in the Bahamas FOR NOW
Quoting CoopsWife:
Hey, Va Beach - all done prepping? Lots of trees up Little Neck way.


Well im at college so not much to do here, but called the parents and made sure they already had everything all set. Now just sitting and waiting making sure it starts to turn, on the weathertap sat it looks like its wobbling west again :(
1774. redux
storm track will be like a typical noreaster. won't know what happens until it does.
Quoting TerraNova:
Cleaner view of the models and the interesting trend that NHC mentioned in their 5 PM discussion...



Those suck. Earl, Part II.
Quoting MississippiWx:
90L will probably receive an upgrade in percentage later tonight in the TWO. Nice flare-up over the center.





No way, Jose.
1777. 996tt
Quoting MississippiWx:


It won't happen. Let's just put it that way. It's a different situation than with Andrew.

Anyway, we have 19 years more of study and new technology now. She's going up the coast somewhere east of Florida.


The same technology had Gustav going up east coast in 2008 when Gustav was in a similar location. Gustav never turned either.
1779. hamla
QUOTING MISSISSIPPIWX

U THINK IRINE IS THE FAT LADY WHO IS GONA SING LOL
1780. Levi32
Irene looks to be trying to reform her CDO again. We will see how long it lasts. These attempts will become easier to maintain as the core pulls away from Hispaniola.

IR Loop
1781. Relix
Quoting MississippiWx:
90L will probably receive an upgrade in percentage later tonight in the TWO. Nice flare-up over the center.





Will it really go out to sea like models say? Many in PR are looking towards this little wave.
Quoting Grothar:
Nice thunderstorms over central Africa.




Are any of them headed to Texas? - Hi Grothar!
Quoting Levi32:
Irene looks to be trying to reform her CDO again. We will see how long it lasts. These attempts will become easier to maintain as the core pulls away from Hispaniola.

IR Loop


May not need anymore attempts after this one.
Quoting ncstorm:


I think the fact that the NHC called it weak says a lot..


They were talking about the weak trough that follows the hurricane across the SE states.

"SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE."
1785. Patrap
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Wake up to a category 4 being predicted to directly hit Wilmington (my location).... come home from work to nearly perfect model consensus that this will completely miss my area with very little side effects (being on the west side of the storm). Interesting.

This is a perfect example of why people dont take these storms seriously.... I gotta say, considering the models showed everyone from Texas to Maine at risk... then showed Florida, GA and SC at a very high risk... then showed NC at a very high risk... and now millions and millions of people in these states will receive little-to-nothing from Irene... Wow. Its a good thing this time, but should clear up for some of us enthusiasts why the everyday person doesnt take these things seriously until the last second
You act as if the storm has already passed you.

Be patient, you never know what could happen. Those models could shift west again for all we know. They're just models.
1787. cwf1069
As the pressure deep on Irene, she can be on a different steering layer if goes below 970 mb. This sugest she will slow down a little bit more, waiting for the next trough to pull her. Just my point.
GFS 18z running...

Link
The GFS is starting to initialize.
i wonder if the weather channel will go into Storm Alert mode for Irene?
Quoting Levi32:
Irene looks to be trying to reform her CDO again. We will see how long it lasts. These attempts will become easier to maintain as the core pulls away from Hispaniola.

IR Loop


Levi,

What do you think about all the "missing the trough" talk? Is that a possibility or is the recurve pretty much a done deal?

Thanks,
Trough is outta here. Ridge moving back west already, and ridge over Texas has moved west a tad too.

At 18UTC:



Current as of 21UTC:

Quoting AllStar17:


No way, Jose.


Lol...You don't think it will? Models develop it within 48 hours. I don't see why not...
6 hr out.

1795. scott39
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


the intensity forecast, in this case, will be adjusted according to current intensification trends. If a round of rapid intensification ensues, I would not be surprised to see the forecast upped significantly. If, for some reason, the storm does not intensify as much... the forecast could be lowered. However, logically speaking the Hurricane is in a decent environment for moderate intensification. My feeling is that there is a high risk of it reaching strength higher than the official forecast. But that remains to be seen.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


the intensity forecast, in this case, will be adjusted according to current intensification trends. If a round of rapid intensification ensues, I would not be surprised to see the forecast upped significantly. If, for some reason, the storm does not intensify as much... the forecast could be lowered. However, logically speaking the Hurricane is in a decent environment for moderate intensification. My feeling is that there is a high risk of it reaching strength higher than the official forecast. But that remains to be seen.
I dont know if you were refering to the (track) in your answer?
1796. DFWjc
Quoting presslord:
since there's a bit of blog bashing going on...let me add this:

I've spoken by phone today with an even dozen WU bloggers...and, without exception, they have been some of the nicest, smartest, most caring people I've ever dealt with......you know who you are...


same to you Presslord, always enjoy conversing with you on weather...
1797. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
Me to high level FEMA official this AM: "If y'all can help, great!!! If not, please get out of our way..." Haven't heard another word from them...guess that answers that...

AWESOME!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...You don't think it will? Models develop it within 48 hours. I don't see why not...


You missed my joke. I'm with you. The next name on the list is the J name - Jose.
GFS initializing way too weak. 997 MB??
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...You don't think it will? Models develop it within 48 hours. I don't see why not...


Believe he was making light of the next name on the list.
Quoting ncstorm:


a weak trough pushing a major out to sea? I dont see it..


First off, you're looking at it all wrong...where did you get the idea that the trof "pushes" anything? What causes forward movement in one of these sytems, do you think? What determines their steering, and what is their general tendency in motion?

I'm trying to get a feel for where and when you went off the tracks...
Quoting Levi32:
Irene looks to be trying to reform her CDO again. We will see how long it lasts. These attempts will become easier to maintain as the core pulls away from Hispaniola.

IR Loop


It wasn't majorly disrupted was it?
12 hr. Is it me, or it's too high up from the start?

Quoting 996tt:


The same technology had Gustav going up east coast in 2008 when Gustav was in a similar location. Gustav never turned either.


Gustav's forecast track never took him out to sea. This is from the first advisory. All tracks shifted west afterwards. Notice the huge circle at the end of the 5-day period. It tells the huge uncertainty associated with the forecast. Again, this is totally different.

Quoting BrockBerlin:


Believe he was making light of the next name on the list.


Correct
Trough is outta here. Ridge moving back west already, and ridge over Texas has moved west a tad too.

At 18UTC:



Current as of 21UTC:

Im not bashing anyone, just stating my opinion.

The computer models, blogs, as well as NHC all put S Fla in pretty grave danger a few days ago. Then they were safe 2 days later. I woke up this morning to my home of wilmington in the direct path of a cat 4. This afternoon after work, we are on the west side of a storm by about 100 miles, leaving us with little impact.

Great news: These residents are safe from a potentially dangerous storm (now NE residents may not be)

Bad news: Another "boy who cried wolf" situation for some of the most hurricane prone areas... namely florida and NC.

I understand things change with time, and this is stated by any computer model or NHC prediction. But it is what it is, and I feel this event (or non-event) will definitely have an impact on how seriously people take approaching hurricanes.
Good news for today with some potential consequences somewhere down the road. Just my two cents though
UMMMM weather channel just said its a cat 1 now??? guess i missed that on the 5;00 update ;/
Quoting Relix:


Will it really go out to sea like models say? Many in PR are looking towards this little wave.


The models see a break in the ridge due to a passing trough. We'll see, but I'd keep an eye on it.
Quoting Floodman:


First off, you're looking at it all wrong...where did you get the idea that the trof "pushes" anything? What causes forward movement in one of these sytems, do you think? What determines their steering, and what is their general tendency in motion?

I'm trying to get a feel for where and when you went of the tracks...


Can you explain that for us that don't have a clue?

Thanks,
1811. Patrap

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

1812. BrandiQ
Quoting alvarig1263:
Trough is outta here. Ridge moving back west already, and ridge over Texas has moved west a tad too.

At 18UTC:



Current as of 21UTC:



Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Quoting AllStar17:


You missed my joke. I'm with you. The next name on the list is the J name - Jose.


LOL...Woosh, right over my head.

But hey, in my defense, you said no way when I suggested the percentage would be increased. LOL.
I hadn't noticed til i saw a wv loop,it appears a TUTT or ULL chasing Irene. watch the GOES 14km WV loop here.

Link

To what afect?
1815. ncstorm
Quoting Floodman:


First off, you're looking at it all wrong...where did you get the idea that the trof "pushes" anything? What causes forward movement in one of these sytems, do you think? What determines their steering, and what is their general tendency in motion?

I'm trying to get a feel for where and when you went of the tracks...


it you look back when I posted that, you will see that a blogger responder to me and said it pushed it out to sea..I said initally it pulled it out to sea, hence the push comment..
Quoting BrandiQ:


Is that a good thing or a bad thing?


Well, if it was either of the two, it would be bad, as the weakness is shifting west, so the storm's path would move west. However, the high was forecast to move west, the next shortwave trough will reinforce the weakness allowing Irene to move to the north.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Im not bashing anyone, just stating my opinion.

The computer models, blogs, as well as NHC all put S Fla in pretty grave danger a few days ago. Then they were safe 2 days later. I woke up this morning to my home of wilmington in the direct path of a cat 4. This afternoon after work, we are on the west side of a storm by about 100 miles, leaving us with little impact.

Great news: These residents are safe from a potentially dangerous storm (now NE residents may not be)

Bad news: Another "boy who cried wolf" situation for some of the most hurricane prone areas... namely florida and NC.

I understand things change with time, and this is stated by any computer model or NHC prediction. But it is what it is, and I feel this event (or non-event) will definitely have an impact on how seriously people take approaching hurricanes.
Good news for today with some potential consequences somewhere down the road. Just my two cents though


Understand your point but most that I know that live in south Florida, take every storm seriously until it's north of our latitude in most cases. Although many of wait till the last minute to stock supplies but one often meets nice people waiting in the very long lines at the grocery, department, drug, and/or home improvement stores.
Quoting sunlinepr:
This guy had REAL DAMAGE....

OMG!!!post 1747.
That really puts everything in perspective.
Thanks.
What is Mission 10 into Irene???

What is Mission 11 doing?
1820. cutgr
i live here in SC...glad to see that we arent really in the target area anymore.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Im not bashing anyone, just stating my opinion.

The computer models, blogs, as well as NHC all put S Fla in pretty grave danger a few days ago. Then they were safe 2 days later. I woke up this morning to my home of wilmington in the direct path of a cat 4. This afternoon after work, we are on the west side of a storm by about 100 miles, leaving us with little impact.

Great news: These residents are safe from a potentially dangerous storm (now NE residents may not be)

Bad news: Another "boy who cried wolf" situation for some of the most hurricane prone areas... namely florida and NC.

I understand things change with time, and this is stated by any computer model or NHC prediction. But it is what it is, and I feel this event (or non-event) will definitely have an impact on how seriously people take approaching hurricanes.
Good news for today with some potential consequences somewhere down the road. Just my two cents though


I don't know about the local meteorologists down there but all the national ones repeatedly said that A) It was still early in the game and the track would likely change and B) That the models do no do well until the cyclone is well developed. As I previously stated, this is a well known fact... except to the public who does not listen closely enough.

Models have done a pretty good job with this system over the past 48 hours, IMO. Who cares if they said it could hit Florida a few days ago, that was when the circulation was still weak and the models could not initialize it well... it was also before there was frequent NHC aircraft flying into it to collect more data to input into the models.
Just a general comment for those who feel the storm hasn't turned west yet and thus might miss the forecast point. THE STORM'S NOT SUPPOSED TO TURN YET! lol..... Based on this morning's and this afternoon's forecast track, the turn is supposed to take place sometime tonight. And from my vague recollection, originally this WNW track was supposed to continue until about 78W or so... so the next 12 hours should be the ones to tell us how far west Irene goes.
1823. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It wasn't majorly disrupted was it?


It has been dealing with major injections of dry air all morning and afternoon, and hasn't looked healthy. It may be regenerating now.
24 hrs.

Infrared - Water Vapor image showing negative values again




This is usually a sign of overshooting cloud tops or very deep and intense convection. Seeing a large patch of negative values over the CDO is a good sign that intense new convection is occurring over the core which would obviously signal strengthening.

Also note the batch of negative values just south of PR. They're about to get hammered again
1827. Remek
Quoting aprinz1979:


Can you explain that for us that don't have a clue?

Thanks,


Simplification: A trough tends to attract, a ridge tends to repel.
1828. scott39
Patrap--Are you seeing any "suprises" that may be occuring currently with Irene, that could alter current track or intensity? From one TC hobbiest to another.
1829. Patrap
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Quoting BrandiQ:


Is that a good thing or a bad thing?


It depends on your perspective. If you don't want it to hit S FL, or the East Coast then yes it's a bad thing. But I you do then... it's good.

The atlantic ridge building quickly west before the next trough will push Irene as far west as possible before the next trough comes, which could be further west than what all the computer models and the current track currently think.

The ridge over texas moving west will also allow more room for it to go west before bouncing off of it and then heading northward. That high over Texas is pretty much the only reason why Irene can't even touch the GOM or FL. But even though it is not expected to at this point, it could change. We'll keep watching it....
I seriously think that the trough will not be strong enough to influence a strong High pressure ridge. This is my take on the whole situation but I think the High will have considerably more influence than the models are taking into account. I think the models have had a tendency from the very beginning to be underemphasizing the high pressure ridge and overemphasizing the trough. I think we need to take this into account and realize that given how far this storm is out from making landfall that their is still most likely a large margin or error in the model dyanmics even if they have started to agree with each other.
It's getting nasty, just had a 52 mph gust, and heavier rain.

just did today's test run of gen, taking break and then go take a hot shower.
30 hr out.

Quoting ncstorm:


it you look back when I posted that, you will see that a blogger responder to me and said it pushed it out to sea..I said initally it pulled it out to sea, hence the push comment..


**Bows deeply**

My spologies; it's a fault of mine to be a bit impatient and scan the posts a bit too quickly...I did not mean to infer that you were any less knowledgeable than you are and if I caused offense I do heartily beg pardon...

**was that a bit too formal? I really do apologize, btw**
I wonder how good the chance is now that it will miss the CONUS altogether now?
Quoting Levi32:


It has been dealing with major injections of dry air all morning and afternoon, and hasn't looked healthy. It may be regenerating now.


Okay, I have an important question.

Do you believe the models are too far east and that Irene will pass slightly more west than the models and the NHC are predicting?
Recon getting ready to leave from St. Croix.
1838. Patrap
Quoting ncstorm:


this is suspect to me..how can a weak trough turn a major out to sea?
The trough pushes the high back and the storm goes along the edge of the high. Think of the storm as a train on a track that is moveable. Wherever the track goes, there goes the train.
Quoting AllStar17:
What is Mission 10 into Irene???

What is Mission 11 doing?


Hmmm, weird. Perhaps 11 is throwing dropsondes, though I have no idea why it wouldn't leave from the US. Perhaps there are two going in.
Even the center don't landfalls, this storm is still LARGE so I would be expecting TS force winds along the East Coast and keep tracking NHC cone.
1843. hamla
BACK IN 1965 BETSY WAS A FISH STORM AT 1 TIME BUT IT DID A LOOP T LOOP AND HIT NAWLINS SO TILL ITS GONE KAPUT DONE FINI ITS NOT OVER TILL ITS OVER
1844. Remek
Quoting cutgr:
i live here in SC...glad to see that we arent really in the target area anymore.


No reason to let your guard down. Gale force/TS force winds, high surf + high tide, heavy rain + isolated tornado risk.
Still hazardous conditions.
Quoting Jwd41190:
I wonder how good the chance is now that it will miss the CONUS altogether now?


Seem to be increasing quickly by the hour
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay, I have an important question.

Do you believe the models are too far east and that Irene will pass slightly more west than the models and the NHC are predicting?


I'm not Levi, but at this point I do. IMO. Look at posts #1806 and #1830, they give a further explanation.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Infrared - Water Vapor image showing negative values again




This is usually a sign of overshooting cloud tops or very deep and intense convection. Seeing a large patch of negative values over the CDO is a good sign that intense new convection is occurring over the core which would obviously signal strengthening.

Also note the batch of negative values just south of PR. They're about to get hammered again


The deep convection burst brought the system up 20 mph in strength last night. Considering the pressure is indicative of a higher Category 2 hurricane (105-110 mph), do you believe the winds will catch up tonight and be a major by morning or mid-morning?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Frankly, about 75% of the kids on here are the sensible ones.... OTOH, the adults sometimes make me wonder...

LOL

I agree, children are showing lots of interest,in the subject providing insights,knowledge. They are our future, and we should be proud of them.
what should i look for up around greensboro nc. alot of rain maybe? thanks.
Here in east central florida. I'm watching this close i won't be releaved untill I see that north turn tomorrow......... someone want to explain why fay sat off my coast for 24 hours nearly stationary. i now it was influenced buy something but 24 hours lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
The trough pushes the high back and the storm goes along the edge of the high. Think of the storm as a train on a track that is moveable. Wherever the track goes, there goes the train.


Precisely, but I would at that the train is actuallt trying to be the polar express; all of these storms do their best to gain latitude and get to the pole so they tend to "bounce" along under the ridge, looking for a way to tend northward
wait a minute so we will be having 2 recon in the storm tonight... thats soo cool
Quoting Floodman:


Precisely, but I would at that the train is actuallt trying to be the polar express; all of these storms do their best to gain latitude and get to the pole so they tend to "bounce" along under the ridge, looking for a way to tend northward


humpin' the ridge...See?!?!?! I told ya!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay, I have an important question.

Do you believe the models are too far east and that Irene will pass slightly more west than the models and the NHC are predicting?
as the pros been explaining, keep the eye on cone. NHC also said it's expecting up to 200 miles of error at the end of cone.
1856. rv1pop
Quoting Grandpato4:
The earthquake is getting more attention than Irene on our news.
I am not seeing the news, but just as a 'point of interest' in the Seattle area, when we had anything above about 3.2 there were a lot of semi-trained people (mostly Ham Radio Operators) that would go out and check all the bridges and overpasses for obvious damage, spauling etc., sometimes that could take a few hours. If there were any signs of damage we would call in an expert immediately. When the experts were the only ones checking, it could take a week to do the preliminary. The Nisqually quake was a 6.8 and a deep quake (Feb.28,2001 @10:54 AM). When the radio officer got to the EOC at 11:15 AM he had a 90% report of any damages. The "officials" could not believe the accuracy but did dispatch to the reported damage areas first. at 6 AM the next morning they confirmed our reports were accurate and RACES officially became the first observers. A 5.9 shallow quake vs a 6.8 deep quake do not compare, and to us, I had 4 bridges to check, I drove out and checked and went back about my business - with my radio on my hip. A 5.9 is not a small quake.
1857. barbamz
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Hmmm, weird. Perhaps 11 is throwing dropsondes, though I have no idea why it wouldn't leave from the US. Perhaps there are two going in.

Perhaps they just want to move the plane to a better starting point for further investigations further northwest?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a general comment for those who feel the storm hasn't turned west yet and thus might miss the forecast point. THE STORM'S NOT SUPPOSED TO TURN YET! lol..... Based on this morning's and this afternoon's forecast track, the turn is supposed to take place sometime tonight. And from my vague recollection, originally this WNW track was supposed to continue until about 78W or so... so the next 12 hours should be the ones to tell us how far west Irene goes.


Thanks!I thought someone had said that we were looking for 78W or 79W for the turn. Just learning and thought maybe I had misunderstood.
TCI's: 43mph gusting to 68

18Z GFS is thus far slightly slower and east of the 12Z. 36 hours out.
Intense convection has also allowed outflow to expand more toward the west, which is a good sign. The upper level convergent zone has also shifted further away from Irene and dissipated some.

6hrs ago




Current




Wind shear has also dropped ahead of the storm and finally, the water vapor loop shows that dry air to the west has lessened a bit, outflow has improved to the west, and cloud tops over the core are cooling.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a general comment for those who feel the storm hasn't turned west yet and thus might miss the forecast point. THE STORM'S NOT SUPPOSED TO TURN YET! lol..... Based on this morning's and this afternoon's forecast track, the turn is supposed to take place sometime tonight. And from my vague recollection, originally this WNW track was supposed to continue until about 78W or so... so the next 12 hours should be the ones to tell us how far west Irene goes.


u are correct sir,NHC stated a turn at 78-79W
I started using Wunderground just recently, and came across this blog. After spending hours on here daily in the last month, I finally decided to sign up. I do not know much about the science behind these radars or storms, so I must ask. How well does the GFS forecast storms 10-12 days out?? I was watching the forecast, and it looked to me like a storm begins to develop in the Gulf in about ten days. Is that correct?? Or is way to early to determine that??

Again, I'm very new to this, so please be nice. Thanks!
1864. Patrap
Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 221430 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-083 COR

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/12Z,18Z A. 24/00Z
B. AFXXX 0809A IRENE B. NOAA9 0909A IRENE
C. 23/1015Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 20.5N 71.4W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 24/00Z,06Z
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 B. AFXXX 1109A IRENE
A. 24/00Z C. 23/2145Z
B. NOAAX 1009A IRENE D. 21.2N 73.2W
C. 23/2000Z E. 23/2330Z TO 24/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
A. 24/12Z A. 24/12Z
B. NOAA9 1209A IRENE B. NOAAX 1309A IRENE
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/08Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP


Again I will say this... Irene.. is not... going out.. to sea.. not possible, not gonna happen. It will head NNE towards Long Island or Cape Cod because the Bermuda High is slanted in a position where a storm cannot move ENE or even NE. Stop saying this is a fish storm.. I have family up on Long Island and am very concerned as a "Gloria part II" situation is developing. Earthquake + Hurricane Irene = very dangerous week.
OK I know you didn't ask for it but heres my 2 cents worth anyway. Anyone living in the Bahamas or along the East coast of US. you still need to watch this storm. I will not discount a hit for S.Fl until it has passed 80 longitude at least. Not to say some have passed us and turned around like a mad dog and bit us. But that is a general rule of Thumb for me. A hurricane that affects any populated land area is not a FISH STORM there are a bunch of insensitive buttheads who think that if it doesn't hit the US its a fish. You all no who you are so just shut the heck up............I am sure the fine people of the Bahamas wish this could be a fish storm.
Quoting presslord:


humpin' the ride...See?!?!?! I told ya!!


More like riding the hump, but I digress...
1869. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay, I have an important question.

Do you believe the models are too far east and that Irene will pass slightly more west than the models and the NHC are predicting?


I still believe a landfall will occur just northeast of Wilmington, NC. Obviously my track has shifted east a bit along with the models today. I will continue to say that regardless of the forecasts right now, 4 days out is way too early to feel safe from this storm. We are all hoping that Irene's likely path continues to shift east, but the overall pattern still favors the eastern seaboard seeing at least some of this storm. I don't see how we can get away with nothing from Irene somewhere along the coast. Even missing North Carolina could still result in a landfall in New England.
Turks and Caicos just had a gust of 107 mph wow!
1871. rkay1
lol 10-12 days out? These models cant get it right 5 days out let alone 10 days. 
Quoting Meriweather:
I started using Wunderground just recently, and came across this blog. After spending hours on here daily in the last month, I finally decided to sign up. I do not know much about the science behind these radars or storms, so I must ask. How well does the GFS forecast storms 10-12 days out?? I was watching the forecast, and it looked to me like a storm begins to develop in the Gulf in about ten days. Is that correct?? Or is way to early to determine that??

Again, I'm very new to this, so please be nice. Thanks!

1872. Patrap
Quoting AllStar17:
What is Mission 10 into Irene???

What is Mission 11 doing?


Mission 10 is the Hurricane Research Division Tail Doppler Radar flight.

Mission 11 is the normal Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight.
1874. scott39
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
link please
Quoting Floodman:


More like riding the hump, but I digress...


ridge.......I meant ridge....I changed it....
1877. rkay1
So you guarantee a direct hit by Irene somewhere?
Quoting reedzone:
Again I will say this... Irene.. is not... going out.. to sea.. not possible, not gonna happen. It will head NNE towards Long Island or Cape Cod because the Bermuda High is slanted in a position where a storm cannot move ENE or even NE. Stop saying this is a fish storm.. I have family up on Long Island and am very concerned as a "Gloria part II" situation is developing. Earthquake + Hurricane Irene = very dangerous week.

Quoting presslord:


ridge.......I meant ridge....I changed it....




Weakness now directly north of her, still a strong low level flow tho...
Quoting Levi32:


I still believe a landfall will occur just northeast of Wilmington, NC. Obviously my track has shifted east a bit along with the models today. I will continue to say that regardless of the forecasts right now, 4 days out is way too early to feel safe from this storm. We are all hoping that Irene's likely path continues to shift east, but the overall pattern still favors the eastern seaboard seeing at least some of this storm. I don't see how we can get away with nothing from Irene somewhere along the coast.


Me either.. The high pressure to the east will block Irene from escaping the East Coast. GFS even pulls it NW again after crossing Cape Hatteras.
1880. Remek
Quoting Floodman:


More like riding the hump, but I digress...

Ha! Good analogy! :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The deep convection burst brought the system up 20 mph in strength last night. Considering the pressure is indicative of a higher Category 2 hurricane (105-110 mph), do you believe the winds will catch up tonight and be a major by morning or mid-morning?
Maybe as early as tomorrow morning, it's hard to say, I do expect it to be a major by this time tomorrow. Pressures have continued to drop, however, winds have yet to follow. We'll have to see what recon finds. We got a recon plane just leaving St. Croix right now, and a "Kermit" plane leaving Tampa as well.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
It's getting nasty, just had a 52 mph gust, and heavier rain.

just did today's test run of gen, taking break and then go take a hot shower.


Good luck sailor..I'll keep you in our prayers.(and everybody else in Bahamas)
Still going <---- dat way Pat?
If Irene misses NC and hits New England, will it be even stronger -- or is intensification potential between N. Carolina and New England negligible?

Quoting Levi32:


I still believe a landfall will occur just northeast of Wilmington, NC. Obviously my track has shifted east a bit along with the models today. I will continue to say that regardless of the forecasts right now, 4 days out is way too early to feel safe from this storm. We are all hoping that Irene's likely path continues to shift east, but the overall pattern still favors the eastern seaboard seeing at least some of this storm. I don't see how we can get away with nothing from Irene somewhere along the coast. Even missing North Carolina could still result in a landfall in New England.
Quoting Levi32:


I still believe a landfall will occur just northeast of Wilmington, NC. Obviously my track has shifted east a bit along with the models today. I will continue to say that regardless of the forecasts right now, 4 days out is way too early to feel safe from this storm. We are all hoping that Irene's likely path continues to shift east, but the overall pattern still favors the eastern seaboard seeing at least some of this storm. I don't see how we can get away with nothing from Irene somewhere along the coast. Even missing North Carolina could still result in a landfall in New England.


Levi, it didnt take me long to figure out you are one of if not the most respected blogger here.

I live and Wilmington... this morning woke up to the NHC showing a cat 4 on top of me... but now think I am pretty safe, based on the trends and the NHC projected path. Should I still keep a close eye on this and maybe stock up on supplies? I had pretty much felt safe after coming home from work seeing the update... is it too soon for that?
48 hrs out. Got feeling it's going little east this time.

Quoting rkay1:
So you guarantee a direct hit by Irene somewhere?



Yes, it cannot escape.. unfortunately.. High Pressure will be too large and strong for a NE movement. I'm looking at Long Island to Cape Cod for direct landfall as of now, maybe further west. Irene hasn't strengthened much today and may lead to a further westward track, not by much though.
1888. redux
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Levi, it didnt take me long to figure out you are one of if not the most respected blogger here.

I live and Wilmington... this morning woke up to the NHC showing a cat 4 on top of me... but now think I am pretty safe, based on the trends and the NHC projected path. Should I still keep a close eye on this and maybe stock up on supplies? I had pretty much felt safe after coming home from work seeing the update... is it too soon for that?


do you really expect a "respected" forecaster/blogger to tell you to ignore a hurricane before it passes you?

ACE (Source) — Storm:
1 5.38 Irene

2 2.95 Bret

3 1.99 Emily

4 1.84 Cindy

5 1.63 Arlene

6 1.60 Gert

7 1.50 Don

8 1.24 Harvey

9 0.41 Franklin
Total: 18.5
Quoting masonsnana:
Still going <---- dat way Pat?


He's now going this way.
NEW BLOG
Quoting leftlink:


Here is a link to a Tumblr page I just made with 4 personal weather stations from Southern Bahamas locations (Turks and Caicos and Emerald Bay):

Southern Bahamas - Live Weather Stations
Emerald Bay, Exuma is really central Bahamas. It should be a good location to monitor tomorrow.
here in central florida....... I'm not taking my eye off irene untill she take here north turn..... thinking it will be a tad west of forecast though......
1895. JNCali
how much storm surge would it take to flood the subways in NYC?
they just put a hurricane alert on my weather bug for broward county possible tropical storm force winds at times but squalls could move through and dangerous rip currents hope this things does not track any more west then it is suppose to i do not want anymore alerts!!
Quoting ncstorm:


this is suspect to me..how can a weak trough turn a major out to sea?


Notice it says behind the Hurricane, meaning it is going to potential push the storm into the NE after pass us in the SE
Quoting rkay1:
Your right on the money.  These computer models are a complete joke and I for one have lost complete confidence in them.  There is one thing to take from this all though.  Wherever they point to will be the area the storm does not go. 



Well said...so what would you use for prediction of general track and eventual landfall? The entrails of a goat? Tea leaves perhaps? Or one of the really old standards, mind altering substances, extreme physical deprivation and isolation? Maybe a non-spiritual method, perhaps standing on a tall tower with binoculars and looking out to sea?

As I see it, all of the above would be about equally effective, perhaps we should put each on a strip of paper and draw lots? I know which one I want...
1899. Levi32
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
If Irene misses NC and hits New England, will it be even stronger -- or is intensification potential between N. Carolina and New England negligible?



It would be weakening and would probably be a couple categories lower than it is off of North Carolina, but even a Cat 1 in New England would be bad.
1900. Remek
New Blog Entry!


the orange color east of Irene is spinning and following Irene. What is it? Watch the 14km GOES East WV Loop, ULL OR TUTT?

I MUST BE ON IGNORE
Quoting Meriweather:
I started using Wunderground just recently, and came across this blog. After spending hours on here daily in the last month, I finally decided to sign up. I do not know much about the science behind these radars or storms, so I must ask. How well does the GFS forecast storms 10-12 days out?? I was watching the forecast, and it looked to me like a storm begins to develop in the Gulf in about ten days. Is that correct?? Or is way to early to determine that??

Again, I'm very new to this, so please be nice. Thanks!


About the best anyone can really do in the heat of the year for time frames that long is pressure tendencies
Quoting rchira1:


***ALERT***


What happens if this storm continues on this wnw track and does not make that turn its supposed to make? Where would the storm hit? SOUTH FLORIDA ?


Remember Andrew. It was coming towards south florida but all of the computer models and weathermen said it would not hit south florida and it was going to make a turn away from s florida. the next morning, they said it missed the turn and now coming straight at south florida . everybody had less than 24 hours to get ready and that evening it came.


***Voice Your Opinions On This***


What you've said is absolutely true -- but is was also 19 years ago, and the technology that allows them to track the storms is different as night and day.

If you want to reassure yourself as to the accuracy, take the time to go back to the archives and look through all the cones for storms in the last 3 or 4 years. You will see that rarely inside the two day cone have they been wrong.

For anyone out there who is worried that things can change, its natural. It certainly has happened here in Miami more than once. That's why you don't over react, you just keep an eye out, and when its past us, breathe a big sigh of relief and get back to life.
Quoting Remek:

Ha! Good analogy! :)


LOL...thanks...
Quoting reedzone:


Me either.. The high pressure to the east will block Irene from escaping the East Coast. GFS even pulls it NW again after crossing Cape Hatteras.
Don't worry REED, even if clips the NE corner of Maine I'll give you credit for being right as right can be.
.
And this isn't a fish storm. It's already done damage in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and it's bearing down as we speak on the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas.
09L/H/I/C3
RI FLAG (flag)
MARK
21.00n/72.50w






ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Quoting redux:


do you really expect a "respected" forecaster/blogger to tell you to ignore a hurricane before it passes you?



Given that the models are on a nearly perfectly matching paths going well east of here (and that western side impacts are much less), maybe, i dont know thats why im asking the question. I am hoping he'd give me his real answer and not just bs as to not look wrong later. Thats what the NHC, TWC and more publicly known places do... thats why im asking levi here on a blog.
Quoting JNCali:
how much storm surge would it take to flood the subways in NYC?


I read somewhere that a strong CAT 2 would do it
Quoting HondosGirl:


Thanks!I thought someone had said that we were looking for 78W or 79W for the turn. Just learning and thought maybe I had misunderstood.
that was a yesterday or the day before, the models seem to have drifted east some,so the turn may be sooner,perhaps 77-78w
Quoting charlottefl:
TCI's: 43mph gusting to 68

serious rain and wind!
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Given that the models are on a nearly perfectly matching paths going well east of here (and that western side impacts are much less), maybe, i dont know thats why im asking the question. I am hoping he'd give me his real answer and not just bs as to not look wrong later. Thats what the NHC, TWC and more publicly known places do... thats why im asking levi here on a blog.


He's being responsible. Why would you expect him to stick his neck out for you? Ultimately it is YOUR responsibility to decide what to do. Don't put it off on a well respected blogger.
Quoting LADobeLady:


He's being responsible. Why would you expect him to stick his neck out for you? Ultimately it is YOUR responsibility to decide what to do. Don't put it off on a well respected blogger.


You have a good point. Sorry levi lol. Going out for dinner... I'll be back to continue the watching and waiting
Quoting weaverwxman:
OK I know you didn't ask for it but heres my 2 cents worth anyway. Anyone living in the Bahamas or along the East coast of US. you still need to watch this storm. I will not discount a hit for S.Fl until it has passed 80 longitude at least. Not to say some have passed us and turned around like a mad dog and bit us. But that is a general rule of Thumb for me. A hurricane that affects any populated land area is not a FISH STORM there are a bunch of insensitive buttheads who think that if it doesn't hit the US its a fish. You all no who you are so just shut the heck up............I am sure the fine people of the Bahamas wish this could be a fish storm.


Why would you wait til Irene passes 80W to think she would not hit Florida? If she gets to 80 W, isnt she on top of Florida?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


the orange color east of Irene is spinning and following Irene. What is it? Watch the 14km GOES East WV Loop, ULL OR TUTT?

I MUST BE ON IGNORE
It's an upper level low.
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
1916. liljade
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Well, if it was either of the two, it would be bad, as the weakness is shifting west, so the storm's path would move west. However, the high was forecast to move west, the next shortwave trough will reinforce the weakness allowing Irene to move to the north.
How far west could it go? Into the Gulf? Just making sure GOMEX is safe.
1917. liljade
Quoting Floodman:


About the best anyone can really do in the heat of the year for time frames that long is pressure tendencies
Could you share the link please?
Anyone remember the last time a cat. 1 made landfall in State of New Jersey?
1919. JNCali
ECMWF still showing Irene nailing Cape Hatteras and proceding due North scouring the NE seaboard all the way up to New Brunswick... That is a whole lotta folks
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay, I have an important question.

Do you believe the models are too far east and that Irene will pass slightly more west than the models and the NHC are predicting?
I sure hope not. Even 40 miles west could make a bad situation worse.
Quoting Grandpato4:
The earthquake is getting more attention than Irene on our news.


The Hurricane is still days away... you got plenty of time... that is the best thing about hurricanes... earthquakes just start shaking under your feet... tornadoes just as bad as they can just drop out of the sky... hurricanes... plenty of warning and they ALWAYS change where they are going, and ONLY effect a very small area with destruction... no matter how big there are... and to the right of the storm... with exceptions obviously with places like New Orleans etc... but up the east coast? relax... still plenty of time to see what it will do...

:-D
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
09L/H/I/C3
RI FLAG (flag)
MARK
21.00n/72.50w






ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
.... Yup here it goes, it will try for cat 4 status off this if not higher.
AF302 took off from St Croix. If your in San Juan, PR that's who just flew over. They are beginning to descend into Irene. Kermit is flying ~8000' about to get a fix on Irene from the WW side.
From Twitter:
Live Now: the Space Station will fly over Hurricane Irene. Watch live views on NASA TV: http://go.nasa.gov/ax5PCk

Quoting rhiles2760:
From Twitter:
Live Now: the Space Station will fly over Hurricane Irene. Watch live views on NASA TV: http://go.nasa.gov/ax5PCk

Im probably just seeing things on that but is there an eye?
Quoting CharsletonAsrock:
do.


Thanks for the work you are doing.


You're very welcome.

By the way, pressure at 7:30pm EST reported as:

pine bay - 29.41
providenciales (almost same spot) - 29.53 or 29.48
great exuma - 29.94

These are not guaranteed to be accurate but by monitoring them regularly we can get an idea of the pressure change.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a general comment for those who feel the storm hasn't turned west yet and thus might miss the forecast point. THE STORM'S NOT SUPPOSED TO TURN YET! lol..... Based on this morning's and this afternoon's forecast track, the turn is supposed to take place sometime tonight. And from my vague recollection, originally this WNW track was supposed to continue until about 78W or so... so the next 12 hours should be the ones to tell us how far west Irene goes.


If it goes west all the way to 78 then i guess so fl would be affected a lot more!!!
Quoting liljade:
Could you share the link please?


This link geos to the FSU modeling collection and is generally out 120 - 160 hours:

FSU Modeling

They're a little slow to update on that one, but it does give a nice graphic representation.

This one:

E-Wall

Gives you some longer range solutions.

When I said pressure tendencies, what I meant was that, for example, the GFS shows a nasty storm at 10 days. Does that mean we;ll have a nasty storm at 10 days? Probably not, but the tendency will be there...lower pressures, etc. More of a heads up than anything even vaguely similar to a real solid forecast. Anyone who has a fair idea about tnis stuff knows you can't, with any certainty, predict a storm at that range...the best you can hope for is an idea about what the conditions will be.
Has anyone seen CRS in the last few hours?
Quoting Floodman:
Has anyone seen CRS in the last few hours?


Have you seen that wave almost halfway across Africa?
Any word from Turks and Caicos island?
1934. msphar
I wonder how that Caicos sailor is doing tonight ?
1935. msphar
Sapodilla Bay is probably not the most idyllic place right now.
Wobble, wobble ...

she seems to be getting stronger again. Not good for the Bahamas