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Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene
Irene

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Can someone point me to a site that shows the top sustained winds on the delmarva peninsula during Irene? Thanks in advance..
2502. WxLogic
Good Morning
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning


Morning. It's very quiet today.
2504. MahFL
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link
Quoting MahFL:
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link


Yeah. My part of Louisiana is in the same drought. We're all hoping the rain forecasted for the latter part of the week comes through.
2506. WxLogic
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning. It's very quiet today.


Indeed... pretty sure quite a bit of people got burned out by Irene. lol.
2507. Vero1
2508. MahFL
""We can't believe a hurricane came through here," city spokeswoman Lori Crouch said."

Proberbly because one didn't, more likely it was a TS at the time.

big difference between those gulf monsters and atlantic ones thats why my family does not live over on the gulf as for the future only the future knows but nature tends to repeat itself
Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS at 117 hours. This is why I said in my blog that Puerto Rico and the northern islands should keep an eye on (Katia). Wouldn't take a whole lot to put her right on top of them...


It form the same day and the same place as DONNA, 51 years ago
Quoting Floodman:


Fish storm is an unfortunate turn of phrase; anything that makes the trip from the Cape Verde is most likely to pass through the islands; last I checked there were damned few uninhabited islands in the Leewards and the Lesser Antilles...

3 millions exactly
Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:

Link



2513. Vero1
2514. scott39
Goodmorning, Does the Bermuda High continue to build back in on TD 12, late in the forecast track?
Quoting Vlad959810:

It form the same day and the same place as DONNA, 51 years ago


Bite your tongue!

Ack!
2516. aimetti
Quoting StormHype:
Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:

Link





i live just to the west of this. I am at work now but they are saying we will be without power for at least 3 days. I took a drive yesterday. power lines down everywhere / trees as well. Big mess.
MSNBC news article:

'Gold medal forecast' of Irene's path saved lives, expert says
24 hours before landfall, National Hurricane Center predicted storm's next day location to within 10 miles or so
Link

does this pattern continue with Katia, when if she develops? hmmmm


emily path



Irene path

My classroom awaits. Everyone have a great Monday!
bump
i see we have TD 12
2522. K8eCane
Good morning TazHope you have a good day!
2523. hydrus
Quoting StormHype:
Impressive Hurricane Irene New England impact video from near Mystic Connecticut. Makes what they saw in NY pretty lame. Right side of a large storms always has the most surge and wind:





.......................................Not to mention that Irene picked up in forward speed, hence increasing winds on the right quadrant and decreasing them on the left. A lot of spin with the new depression..
2524. scott39
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.
2525. scott39
Quoting scott39:
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.
Who is the HHC??? LOL The NHC
Quoting K8eCane:
Good morning TazHope you have a good day!



thanks
I lurk and post every now and then

track forecast for Irene - %100
intensity forecast - no reason to even think about it

I say that because getting the track is all you need....come on folks...why would anyone complain when a disaster doesn't hit? at least we know the forecasters get the track right...money? you say it costs money to close stuff down....I say too bad...people are more important

2528. scott39
I havent seen the blog this slow since the winter. WU---burnout?? Or is school back in for our enthusiastic young WU bloggers??
Quoting scott39:
TD 12 has taken the southern route off of Africa. It looks like the HHC has TD 12 climbing in latitude around 28N to 30N to the WNW. With TD 12 being so far S, and the High building back in, it will be one to watch.



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea
Quoting scott39:
I havent seen the blog this slow since the winter. WU---burnout?? Or is school back in for our enthusiastic young WU bloggers??




we have are own life other then this old blog and many WU bloger has started school
2531. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea
I agree Taz, at the very least it will be a threat to the Northern Islands and Bermuda.
Quoting scott39:
I agree Taz, at the very least it will be a threat to the Northern Islands and Bermuda.




Bermuda. is safe
2533. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:




we have are own life other then this old blog and many WU bloger has started school
It does look like life is busy for most this morning.
2534. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:




Bermuda. is safe
Your thinking further W?
Quoting scott39:
Your thinking further W?



yes
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup has i was saying sunday storms this far S rarey gos out too sea


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.
well needtoo get ready you guys need too follow the nhc forcast and mode runs too find out where TD 12 will go
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.



so ture
2539. scott39
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Overall system development also has alot to do with it... Yes it can be said that storms that dev. this far south rarely go out to sea. But well developed systems this far west rarely make it to CONUS. I certianly will depend on the High, how far east the storm will come.
Do you mean how far W?
Have a great day folks...
2541. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
well needtoo get ready you guys need too follow the nhc forcast and mode runs too find out where TD 12 will go
Good advice Taz!
The track of soon to be Katia is solely dependent on what the trough does.it is also dependent on the strengh of the trough. the forecast iS for it to start a WNW track today. should the system continues west for most of today and part tomorrow, you can rest assure that the trough will have no effect and we are looking at a caribbean track. something to watch very closely.
Quoting scott39:
Good advice Taz!



sorry could have said it better lol


sorry wrong picture
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry could have said it better lol



What a surprise.
2546. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry could have said it better lol
Looked good to me Taz.
For those who weren't on last night when I posted, here's my blog update. It's a little out of date now that 92L is TD12, but the same principles still apply. :-)

Out until later today. Enjoy.

Blog
2004!

ok this is a better one

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archive s/2011/al122011.11082906.gif 2011!
T.C.F.W.
012/TD/K/CX
MARK
XXN/XXW
OUT OF RANGE


2550. scott39
It will be interesting to see how far W TD 12 tracks before going WNW. This will gives a little better idea of a long term track.
TD 12 has to be observed carefully. This time of year CV cyclones go far west (climatology). We have to consider the models are depicting a weaker storm than in formerly runs( less effect from trough). To me this cyclone could be like hurricane Luis (1995). I mean caribbean risk is increasing with this one...
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Does the Bermuda High continue to build back in on TD 12, late in the forecast track?


General rule is any storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W will more then likely miss the continental US. The high is much weaker to the north of this disturbance as it was during irene. European global model has a pretty substantial trof in its path which will more than likely keep it out to sea.

2553. 7544
looks like td 12 will be another intresting storm to watch ge here we go again will the others follow

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zgge m500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.htmlLink
2554. GetReal


TD 12 has been tracking almost due west for the past several hours, and may continue on the more westerly track.





I see we have TD Twelve...what a way to wake up. guess i will monitor this threat too
Good morning all - have not heard how Abaco fared during Irene. I have some friends and interests there, but have not heard much regarding damage, etc... Thanks!
I expect at least a strong cyclone tru the NE caribbean during september. This year pattern is my simple argument (could it be TD 12, but not necessarily, it could be another one CV storm from september .
Good Mornings to everybody...
...Back in the evening or tonight....
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1012.0mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 3.3
lol Cimss sat estimates on TD 12 have Raw estimation of 3.3
Who's developing TD12 besides the GFS? GFS takes her near Maine way out in time. Are other models keeping her further south?
Quoting scott39:
Do you mean how far W?
Yes..I was thinking West
Sure is slow this morning...little surprised with the latitude of the track forecast with TD Twelve
2565. Gearsts
Quoting GetReal:


TD 12 has been tracking almost due west for the past several hours, and may continue on the more westerly track.





OMG shift west now! The eye has miss the forecast point! ;)
2566. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


General rule is any storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W will more then likely miss the continental US. The high is much weaker to the north of this disturbance as it was during irene. European global model has a pretty substantial trof in its path which will more than likely keep it out to sea.

That is the general rule of thumb. Although Ivan didnt pay any attention to that rule in 2004. He formed on 9/2/04 in the same general area.... as TD 12, and hit the N Gulf Coast. It will also depend on how fast TD 12 strengthens and many other factors are still at play, so Im not saying out to sea yet.
2567. NASA101
I just think the models develop TD12 too fast... East side lacks convection and it may be while before it develops into Katia - currently it's moving due West - it's to easy on the loops...

Wait and See....
Nogaps takes her the farthest south going due W toward the islands, most of the others show it go north of the islands and likely out to sea, or Canadian landfall. Another thing models show is another African coming off in 7 days, one last thing to keep some watch on is the little tropical wave in the W. Caribbean, the Nam forms it 3 days or so. I know its the nam, but it's not that far out to forecast
2569. FLdewey
Best video of Irene... street hockey in Times Square.

"
2570. FLdewey
Quoting SPLbeater:
Sure is slow this morning...little surprised with the latitude of the track forecast with TD Twelve


Meh... way too far out.

I vote feesh.

Back later tonight...
I think the key to tracking TD#12 is if its below 15N at 45W, this will increase the chances of it affecting land before it recurves, if it does recurve at all? Sure hope the East coast don't take a 1-2 punch but it is not impossible, just saying
Quoting MahFL:
I forgot to check last week, but the TX drought has got worse.

Link


It's pretty sad when parts of West TX have less drought conditions than the Gulf Coast part of the state.

We're going to Ireland next month just to see green and feel a little rain.
FYI - Mom's place in Cape May made it through fine.. no damage, no flooding.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled life...
5:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Quoting Gearsts:
OMG shift west now! The eye has miss the forecast point! ;)



Next thing you know is, it'll "pump the ridge" and "bust the trough" and then the "shift" will really "hit the fan."
This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.


TD12 is very far south. the trough most of the global models are expecting to create a weakness in the ridge, and move the system wnw, has 48 hrs to do so. there after the trough weakens and allows the the ridge to build back stronger. should this happen, then soon to be Kasia will continue west towards the central islands as a hurricane and track into the caribbean sea.
2580. FLdewey
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Next thing you know is, it'll "pump the ridge" and "bust the trough" and then the "shift" will really "hit the fan."


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.
2581. Gearsts
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo.

Patent pending.
LOL
Will Irene be retired? I think so.
Quoting Twinkster:
This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.


yes sit back and watch where she goes maybe just a highhseas player
2584. ncstorm
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.


LOL!!!
2585. FLdewey
Okay wait, this video may trump downtown street hockey.

Military vehicles driving, fully submerged, through town.

HOO-AAHH

WESH news Link
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.
lol
2588. CBJeff
Quoting hurricaneben:
Will Irene be retired? I think so.


No question about it. Any US loss of life is almost a guaranteed trip to the retired list.
Looks like the military saved a guy in that video, (the man with the red shirt on!).
or wait

"shift always happens"

"i've been pumped"


i got to stop this before i get in trouble
Quoting FLdewey:
Best video of Irene... street hockey in Times Square.

"
,i could here them on the times square cam sat night,i was wondering were all the whooting and hollaring was coming from,
2592. FLdewey
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like the military saved a guy in that video, (the man with the red shirt on!).


Yep - looks like they had the right equipment at the right time.
2593. FLdewey
HAHA KOTG - now you've got me chuckling.
2594. Vero1
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.
Or: "Is your heart healthy enough for..." (and then the Hurricane symbol")
It's a beautiful post-hurricane morning here in North Central Vermont, with some sun and clouds. Up here on our hill, we sat it out successfully. But the folks below us along U.S. Route 2 and the Winooski River running into Montpelier (and eventually out into Lake Champlain) are in trouble. The New Deal-era dam in Marshfield built to prevent devastating floods on this watershed like the famous one in 1927 old-timers still talk about is in danger of overflowing and possibly breaking. (See the WCAX news story.) So the road has been closed and the people below the dam evacuated. Montpelier's downtown is partly flooded (again, like back in May). So are Rutland and Middlebury on the other side of the Green Mountains. Whoever says this storm was being hyped and is a "disappointment" is an idiot. Here in Vermont, folks will remember this one for a long time.
I think any low in the GOM bears close watching. 90 degree water coupled with low shear could spin one up fast. I remember Cindy in July 2005. Came out of nowhere and spun up fast. I am not wishing one just concerned about the amount of energy available in the Gulf.
Quoting Vero1:
Or: "Is your heart healthy enough for..." (and then the Hurricane symbol")


how about

"have you been pumped today"

lol

ok enough iam gone be back at lunch
2598. LBAR
Hey! I got a shout-out from the NHC!

DURING THIS TIME THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LBAR...WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS
WELL IN THE DEEP TROPICS
.
Irene's waves and surge slam camera man in New England:
Irene video - POV surge

Quoting greenmtboy:
It's a beautiful post-hurricane morning here in North Central Vermont, with some sun and clouds. Up here on our hill, we sat it out successfully. But the folks below us along U.S. Route 2 and the Winooski River running into Montpelier (and eventually out into Lake Champlain) are in trouble. The New Deal-era dam in Marshfield built to prevent devastating floods on this watershed like the famous one in 1927 old-timers still talk about is in danger of overflowing and possibly breaking. (See the WCAX news story.) So the road has been closed and the people below the dam evacuated. Montpelier is partly flooded (again, like in May). So are Rutland and Middlebury on the other side of the Green Mountains. Whoever says this storm was being hyped and is a "disappointment" is an idiot. Here in Vermont, folks will remember this one for a long time.

Yea, you guys took the brunt of the rain. Here in NH
we lost a couple tree branches and some rain. Power
never went out thankfully. Thank goodness they closed the National Forest yesterday.
Well if the GFS has this hitting Maine or the Canadian Maritimes in it's early runs then it will more than likely be a threat from Texas to Florida.
Quoting FLdewey:


I bet I could sell "Shift Happens" T-shirts with a hurricane logo. I might have to open a wunderstore.

Patent pending.


There already is a Wunderstore!
2603. Drakoen
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.
2604. kwgirl
Good morning all. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the people adversely affected by Irene. Thank God she lost some of her punch when she did or it could have been a lot worse. On a positive note, I found out this weekend that I am going to be a Grandma, FINALLY! I am so thrilled! Now back to watching the tropics.
looks like the pattern of a strong high pressure will not be as strong as troughs dig in
2606. Grothar
Quoting Twinkster:
This shows exactly why not to initially worry about models and track. These types of storms you just watch and monitor for 5 days.




Models have gotten markedly better since 2004.
Quoting ElConando:


Models have gotten markedly better since 2004.


Doesn't mean they can't be wrong in long range
2609. Grothar
Drak, one just has to look at the flow in the deep tropics and look at the direction of the clouds. tere iis only a shift to the wnw/nw when you get to the islands. i have a suspicion that Kasia will be one of these deep cape verde systems that track into the caribbean
Good morning. xkcd has a hurricane-related cartoon today: Link Hurricane Eggbeater? LOL
2612. Brock31
Quoting Drakoen:
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.


Looks a bit ragged on the SW side, but has a fairly well developed LLC.

I'm watching this one closely.

Irene was just a teaser here in Wilmington NC. We are wayyy past due.
Interesting article - Damage State by State

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-28/irene-s- damage-a-state-by-state-look-at-deaths-flooding-po wer-outages.html

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning all,
I thought we might see Katia this morning, but I see not yet. My thoughts are with all those today who went through Katrina.


Also anniversary of Hurricane David destroying Dominica island with first landfall on 29 August 1979. Its 32 years ago, but as someone said on here,about some other storm, those memories stay with you a lifetime



I must say the trails were nice and empty for a summer weekend.



2616. 3211976
During the past 40 years no hurricane that developed below 10N has become a fish storm. In fact all of them have hit the US and one of them hit PR.

All of them have pas over PR or South of PR.

Let see if TD 10 changes that historical tendency.

If that Cut off Low near Bermuda doesn't get too strong or develops into a tropical ciclone  PR will be in trouble.
lots of shear in the BOC and SOUTHEASTERN GOM this morning...
Quoting 3211976:
During the past 40 years no hurricane that developed below 10N has become a fish storm. In fact all of them have hit the US and one of them hit PR.

All of them have pas over PR or South of PR.

Let see if TD 10 changes that historical tendency.

If that Cut off Low near Bermuda doesn't get too strong or develops into a tropical ciclone  PR will be in trouble.


I think you mean develop below 10N because not many storms become Hurricanes South of 10N. Last one to do so I think was Ivan.
2619. ncstorm
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Who's developing TD12 besides the GFS? GFS takes her near Maine way out in time. Are other models keeping her further south?


Mostly all the models are developing it into a hurricane but the CMC is the only model that brings it west..all the others turn it out to sea..
2620. 3211976

Quoting ElConando:


I think you mean develop below 10N because not many storms become Hurricanes South of 10N. Last one to do so I think was Ivan.
Correct
All I can say, down here in Houston, is COME ON COOLER WEATHER. My station, KTXHUMBL5, recorded 109.9 yesterday and a whopping 111.1 on Saturday. We are watching the oak trees die and the pines are not far behind. I know it's crazy, but people down here are starting to hope for a hurricane, or at least a slow moving tropical storm.
2622. ackee
well I HONESTLY THINK TD#12 WILL track much further WEST and south than what the models are showing now
2623. Brock31
Thats another big blob about to come off Africa behind TD 12. A little higher in Latitude. I wonder what it will do when it makes it to the water?
its really to early imo to call depression 12 a FISH STORM yet...im more interested in whats coming off of africa at 13n...


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect...
Conditions at 4:17 AM

Weather: Fog w/ moderate rain

Temperature: 52°F

Wind: SE 24 mph

Visibility: 75 feet

Relative Humidity: 100%

Station Pressue: 23.79" falling

Ground Conditions: Wet
24 Hour Statistics

Maximum Temperature: 56°F

Minimum Temperature: 48°F

Peak Wind Gust: W 49 mph

Average Wind Speed: 23.7 mph

Liquid Precipitation: 0.00"

Snowfall: 0.0"
Almanac Data

Record High: 70°F (1952)

Record Low: 23°F (1986)

Average Daily Temperature: 46°F

Average Monthly Melted Precipitation: 8.08

Average Monthly Snowfall: 0.20

Total Snowfall So Far This Month: 0.6"

Average Monthly Winds: 24.6

Sunrise: 5:57

Sunset: 7:35
Forecast Discussion

Hurricane Irene will make its way northward into New England today, producing torrential rains and very windy conditions atop the higher summits. Irene will make landfall along the Connecticut coastline this morning, but will spread bands of heavy rainfall well in advance of its center. The periods of rain will become progressively heavier as the day wears on and Irene's eye comes extremely close to a direct pass over the White Mountains. Intense thunderstorms are often imbedded within the structure of a tropical cyclone, so rumbles of thunder and dangerous lightning are not out of the question as well. Wind speeds will pick up quickly through the day, gusting near hurricane force by afternoon. Winds are predicted to drop off around dusk as Irene's calm eye perhaps makes its way overhead. However, as Irene passes north of the region and begins to transition to an extratropical storm, winds will pick up tremendously, gusting well in excess of 100 mph--perhaps as high as 130 mph--in the wee hours of Monday. Temperatures will take a nose dive as well as the winds sharply shift towards the west and pull in chillier air, with overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s. Rain will taper to showers by daybreak, and come to an end early tomorrow, with the summits emerging from the fog tomorrow to reveal mostly sunny skies. Irene's fury will be in full force today, dumping as much as 6-8" of rain atop the higher summits. Tropical cyclones generally do not generate particularly significant wind events on Mt. Washington. However, Irene will be in the unique state of transition between tropical and extratropical system as it passes over and to the north. Should this transition occur quick enough, wind speeds will be on the higher end of the forecasted numbers, perhaps even a bit higher, as a tremendous pressure gradient forms. However, a slower or later transition will translate to less formidable wind speeds tonight. Nevertheless, at minimum, overnight winds will regularly gust in excess of 100 mph. However, the potential is there for a much more significant wind event.
Mike Carmon
Observer
2626. ackee
Quoting Brock31:
Thats another big blob about to come off Africa behind TD 12. A little higher in Latitude. I wonder what it will do when it makes it to the water?
the fact that it is coming off at a HIGHER latitude not too concern
2627. Brock31
All the models seem to show the high over the Atlantic braking down on its west side and pulling TD 12 north. All the models develope it, but also, show it to not be a CONUS threat......yet
2628. FLdewey
More than 8600 people waking up in 340+ American Red Cross shelters this morning. If you can't make a financial donation donate your time - volunteer with the Red Cross today. (No special skills needed)
they were having a discussion on the WC this morning if IRENE should be retired....no question in my mind IRENE should be retired could be the most expensive in terms of damage ever to hit the east coast but the most important thing is IRENE killed 22 people as she ravaged the eastcoast...
keep a close eye on the GOM ...in the next 7 days this will be the HOT SPOT...
GFS Ensemble split at the end, some continue NW track, others recurve



REPOST: 5:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Quoting cloudburst2011:
they were having a discussion on the WC this morning if IRENE should be retired....no question in my mind IRENE should be retired could be the most expensive in terms of damage ever to hit the east coast but the most important thing is IRENE killed 22 people as she ravaged the eastcoast...

26 dead and counting. Floods are still active, and the power line danger will persist for a few days yet. Link
THIS WAS SUCH A WASTE GIVEN jose a name...we have had only 2 decent legit systems this year ARLENE and IRENE...so for this hurricane season has been a real bust...nothing to ride home about thats for sure..i expect the activity for the next 2 months are going be very active...it would not surprise me if we complete the alphabet...
2635. A4Guy
Quoting Drakoen:
TD12 looks like it will be a fun system to track. The initial track from the NHC looks solid given the models poleward bias in the deep tropics and taking into account what we have seen in previous seasons with this systems that form at a low latitude sub 10N.


I read that in the TD12 discussion...but it seens as though their track is right along the consensu, and is not very different from the models.
Quoting summerland:

26 dead and counting. Floods are still active, and the power line danger will persist for a few days yet. Link



wow im sorry to hear the death toll is still climbing...its incredible the damage this storm did...thank GOD it wasnt a strong cat 3...
TD 12 is still struggling to have clouds wrap around it's southwest. his is due to 20-30 khots easterly shear. i cannot see td 12 forming ijto a ts today as forecast by the hhc. the weak td will track west with the low level wind flow. There is a big anticyclone tothe west of td 12 which will make it more conducive for further development. expect td 12 to track west for the next few days
Good morning everyone.


On this dreaded day, six years ago, the costliest hurricane in USA history made landfall. Taking 1,836 lives and causing $108 billion in damage, Katrina made landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana as a 125 MPH Category 3 hurricane.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning everyone.


On this dreaded day, six years ago, the costliest hurricane in USA history made landfall. Taking 1,836 lives and causing $108 billion in damage, Katrina made landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana as a 125 MPH Category 3 hurricane.




yes it was just 29 minutes from now at 930am in the morning i recorded a gust to 142mph from katrina and a sustained winds at that time were 105mph...something i will always remember...it seems like yesterday...
2641. beell
In case some of you missed it, the Colorado State University Tropical Cyclone Operational Model Guidance (TCGP) page will cease to exist tomorrow, August 30th.

Replacement site from NCAR is available here:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/curre nt

One immediate benefit from the change:
"Bloggers will be interested to hear that the TCGP site does not feature the same prohibitions on hot linking that the old site had. All plots for numbered systems (depressions or higher) will have a permanent URL that blogs may freely link to. Please be aware that all content on the new site falls under the UCAR Terms of Use. In general commercial use is prohibited."
I think 012L going to go WNW, and "fish"...
Is TD 12 and Invest 92 the same storm?
Quoting MrstormX:
I think 012L going to go WNW, and "fish"...


Why?



Quoting capquest:
Is TD 12 and Invest 92 the same storm?


Yes, Invest 92L was renamed as TD #12.
2645. 7544
with all these trofs due to come down in sept if a storm does get into the gulf can we see a wilma track wwith the trofs pushing systems ne into fla tia
You mean to say that TD12 looks weak on the southeastern quadrant right, because the whole western semicircle looks great, the eastern side is the one struggling do to the easterly shear.
2647. HCW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why?


I suspect it is going to ride along the Bermuda High, ridging should set it up so it goes WNW for at least the next 5 days, if not more before making a sudden Northern jog E of Bermuda.
Da dum... da dum...da dum...

2650. 7544
cat 2 by thurs hmmmm
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.
Quoting MrstormX:


I suspect it is going to ride along the Bermuda High, ridging should set it up so it goes WNW for at least the next 5 days, if not more before making a sudden Northern jog E of Bermuda.


It's moving west..
CMC warns of frontal forming storms (like Cindy, Franklin) in the coming days.
Alas poor Jose, I knew him... well not really, what with Irene and all.
TS.Jose's ATCF lifespan from 28August_6amGMT to 29August_6amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent TropicalStormJose's path and
the dot connected to YHZ is where TS.Jose was headed before giving up the ghost.
(Terminal Beach east of Halifax)

Copy&paste 29.7n65.4w-30.9n65.7w, 30.9n65.7w-32.3n65.7w, bda, 32.3n65.7w-34.1n65.6w, 34.1n65.6w-36.2n65.2w, yhz, 34.1n65.6w-44.64n63.32w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why?





Yes, Invest 92L was renamed as TD #12.


I'm done changing colors for now unless Katia becomes a significant threat. LOL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's moving west..


Right now, but in a day or two it should start WNW movement...per the nhc
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.


Yes, Irene will almost no doubt be retired. Damage estimates have already topped $10 billion, making it the 8th costliest hurricane to hit the USA. And these are just early damage estimates, could be more.

Irene has topped the damage costs caused by Frances, Jeanne, and Allison.
Quoting AllStar17:


I'm done changing colors for now unless Katia becomes a significant threat. LOL.


lol, let me change mine :P
anticipating 11 AM advisory..will be Katia or not?
2660. ncstorm
Quoting weatherguy03:
TD #12 Forms In The Eastern Atlantic. Tropical Update w/Video


Great video Bob..interesting that the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF has TD12 farther west..
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So is Irene likely to be retired or not?

I really don't think it warrants it, but knowing recent trends, it probably will be.


definitely be retired. Damage in Bahamas, NC and record flooding in upstate new york, vermont, etc.

TD 12 finallyshowing on the central/wide view of the Atlantic, floater should be coming soon for it if it hasnt already got one
with the exception of Irene, the Bermuda High positively has not been as strong as predicted at the start of the season
2664. ncstorm
Quoting MrstormX:
CMC warns of frontal forming storms (like Cindy, Franklin) in the coming days.

NOGAPS does as well..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, Irene will almost no doubt be retired. Damage estimates have already topped $10 billion, making it the 8th costliest hurricane to hit the USA. And these are just early damage estimates, could be more.

Irene has topped the damage costs caused by Frances, Jeanne, and Allison.


Damage in Vermont was pretty extreme, could be more then that amount. Overall though adjusted for inflation some past hurricanes were probably on par with Irene.
2666. 7544
we may see our new k ts born soon
Quoting SPLbeater:
anticipating 11 AM advisory..will be Katia or not?


No.

To the extreme right
2669. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No.


agree maybe at 11pm
2670. TDogg
Alibi time: I blew my forecast of Irene because the stratospheric solenoidal equilibrium was miscalculated. In short...my hamster died on the wheel and took out the electric grid. That forced me to break out my slide rule, which I haven't used in eons. Slide rules are tricky devils, but I learned from the experience!
ECMWF in 240hrs.


GFS in 240 Hrs.


CMC in 144hrs.


NOGAPS in 144hrs.


UKMO in 144hrs.
Hello all! Good morning. I wish for a quick recovery for all those affected by Irene along the east coast.
Hurricanes are great fun to track and an adrenaline rush when they are coming to you or over you, but one quickly regrets every "it would be cool to get hit" thought once the aftermath begins. No power, destruction, death... This is the time when you realize you never want another storm near you.
My best thoughts for all of you.

TD 12, I believe this one should be watched by everyone. Rule of thumb for me here in
PR is always "it's not gone until it's over 20N or west of 67W". You just never know... That first model run and official track is always anyone's guess. We don't say the best place to be is right along that first forecast track for nothing... This is the one line that will change greatly.
As of now I expect to gradually see the track shift west... For the models to pan out it would have to take a WNW move already and pass 30W at about 10-10.4N, I don't foresee this.
While the odds favor the islands being safe since it has so long to develop and move north as strong systems do, nobody is out of th woods... Much less Bermuda and the east coast.
It isn't strange to get a 1-2 punch in the tropics. I find it's quite common to get a warm up and then a good beating from a stronger storm soon after. (Emily-Irene in PR for example).
So, heads up! Nonetheless, September is here.
2674. Dakster
I am liking the ECMWF right now...
Quoting Dakster:
I am liking the ECMWF right now...

Bermuda-Cane-caster, lol
The accuracy of computer models in tracking hurricanes has obviously come a long way. However, watching Irene I have thought, and certainly not for the first time, that the models do no not factor in the affects of dry air as much as they should.

When monitoring hurricanes I often turn to the water vapor images on the NHC website. I find these are very helpful in understanding the atmospheric conditions that are likely to impact the storm.

We all understood that Irene would be forced up the East Coast due to the ridge to the west. On the water vapor images, you could clearly see the dry air becoming compressed and pushed down over Texas, even as dry air was pulled into Irene. (My heart really went out to Texas).

But my question to any who are involved in computer modeling, wasn't this something that could have been predicted? Why, at least as it seems to me, do the models not factor in the presence of dry air?
My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.

2678. JLPR2
Hello morning crew! XD

Really rare for me to be here at this hour, I see we got TD 12 at 5am.
We are now at 9days with at least one named storm in the Atlantic.

*Make that 10days! XD
2679. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFS Ensemble split at the end, some continue NW track, others recurve





So early in the game... it's just sit, wait, watch...and let the models zero in on it with subsequent runs.


As of now media up here around NYC is _of course_ saying "Irene Part 2" about this system.

Well, lol. Way too early to bother with such things.

We will just sit and watch this system intensify into a hurricane over the coming days before we put any stock into such predictions.

=====

So, transit to NYC was not running yet this morning so I get to mill about and pick up branches and the like. Only a select few are chainsaw worthy. Most streets around me that were blocked early have been cleared of the trees.

Over by Yorktown and Mt. Kisco however there are a lot of blocked roads still this morning. The lay of the land seems to have spared my region some versus others that got hit hard.
2680. DFWjc
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.



lol seriously....
Quoting MrstormX:


lol seriously....


:P
Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:

2684. emcf30
Good riddance Irene.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...DEPRESSION OVER THE WATERS OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 27.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
2679. P451

My post was intended to show the uncertainty. If you think that the track of TD12 is not going to be posted from every conceivable model, at every model synoptic time for the next ten days, I suggest you not log onto Dr. Masters blog for the next 7 days. That is what is done here, trying to guess where it is going using the models as aid. Always has been, always will be.
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 63.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Quoting MrstormX:
Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:


Are you surprised about that, She was moving so slowly up the east coast I am not surprised. It will warm up quickly though.
Katia is a newly bred species...Guys, go easy on her lol.
I think i will agreee with the previous answers to me quetion, TD 12 doesnt look solid enough to be named just yet. maybe 5 PM, maybe not. but probably atleast 11 PM, most likely
2693. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bermuda-Cane-caster, lol


No... More like Fishcaster. I don't want it to hit Bermuda either. LOL...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME BROKEN BANDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INTIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. CURRENTLY
THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS APPEARANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL SOON LESSEN...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 275/13. THERE IS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
40-50W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CYCLONE FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 9.8N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.3N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.2N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 12.3N 34.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.4N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 15.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.5N 48.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TD12 is no longer 270 True. Another one down, another down, another bites the dust.

Wait. Was that a wobble west I just saw....?
2696. lhwhelk
Quoting DFWjc:
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
I am SOOO jealous. We have predicted rain for the weekend on the TX coast, though.
2670.TDogg, I'm going to remember that one. Sorry about your hamster.
2697. emcf30
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWELVE AL122011 08/29/11 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 66 80 91 98 101 102 102
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 14 13 4 3 6 8 7 10 9 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -2 -1 3 6 5 -2 0 0 -6 -3
SHEAR DIR 60 61 66 62 56 86 68 180 100 124 159 134 148
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4
Quoting MrstormX:
Irene killed the SSTs off the East Coast:


So miami is safe from any category 3 or higher storms am I right? the water is too cold around Miami
Hey, if the models are turning depression 12 out to sea in long term, that's not a good sign, because that's probably what it wont do, lol. Many times computer models in the far long term will forecast hurricanes to hit Tampa, so there you go.
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
2702. o22sail
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.



HAHAHA!
I couldn't take another one of those right now.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.


Katia*
2704. emcf30
Another nice wave approaching the Atlantic.

2705. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


yeah, goes to show..everything is not set in stone..
Historical tracks are of little significance to current storms.

Could pull a Charley.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
Thx Tampa
Best coverage of impacts on VT I have seen.
2709. chawk
inconspicuous little spin in the GOM just north of the Yucatan and the SE GOM is getting very wet. Got 3" of rain in 4 hours this morning in Palm Harbor.
The thing that stood out the most tropically today while updating my blog was...OMG look how big TALAS is..

2711. Patrap
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Katia*



YA I SCREWED THAT UP........just fixed it! LOL.,...Thanks for the correction.
11:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.
2716. fsumet
Top 10 Analog Tracks for TD 12:

Link
Once these storms start recurving, they tend to keep doing so because each one leaves a weakness in the ridge for the next
Quoting RussianWinter:


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.



Its too early to say that yet.......,but it is possible when that far out........Caution tho as this is very far South and the South ones tend to make it more often further West.
2719. Zaphod
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?
Quoting wxobsvps:
Historical tracks are of little significance to current storms.

Could pull a Charley.


Charley was a storm that formed near the antilles. Not the same thing.
Quoting RussianWinter:


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.


Not so..

--- From NWS - San Juan - They believe it will find the weakness to stay far away to the North of PR Sat/Sun.

NEWLY FORMED TD#12 XPCD TO BECOME TS KATIA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH WEAKNESS TO STEER THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE ON A NW TRACK AND KEEP IT AT A SAFE DISTANCE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE STORM
BECOMES AS INTENSE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
NEXT MON SEPT 05.

12L might threaten Bermuda, other than that, too early to tell but so far, models are pointing towards Bermuda.
2724. o22sail
Quoting Patrap:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)
Quoting Zaphod:
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?

KAH-tyah. Two syllables.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
the name is katia tampa incorrect info there and confusing as well once its label by NHC
Actually they don't have a floater up on TD 12 yet either......i was trying to figure out which Floater # they would put up and i took Floater 1 for now.
Quoting Zaphod:
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?

Kat-yah
2729. Patrap
Quoting o22sail:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)


Well those of us who live in Miss and La. know all too well.



"Calamity Knows no Border's, only men's minds and maps do"

2730. Patrap




Looking at what is coming down the pike, trough wise in the norther Pacific, it looks about as zonal as it could get.

The door is wide open to CONUS, for the near term, anyway.
Irene at Hispaniola/Cuba.


Cuba/Turks Caicos Islands.


The Bahamas


Florida/Northern Bahamas.


Florida/GA/SC


NC Landfall


New York.
2733. Patrap
Quoting o22sail:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)


I'm in Mississippi and I remember Katrina very well. My home gone, but the worst part is to go around trying to at least find some memories, photos or some other items which are of personal value. We were largely ignored, but to us it did not matter, because people in Mississippi did not need the attention we rebuilt our towns by ourselves and of course with the help of those who came down here to lend a hand. New Orleans, well, there are many who also suffered there and I can assure you that many of them where very decent people, but generally their reaction to the aftermath was quite different to ours. The reason they were devastated was mainly due to the levees giving way after so many warnings were given to their officials about the need to reinforce them. The lack of leadership also contributed to the disaster in evacuating the residents. But I know I will take heat for saying this and it will happen again and perhaps worse. I'm just glad to be living in the right side of the border.
Whoops my bad got mississippi and alabama mixed up.

We will never forget. 8/29/2005

Windham downtown decimated by storm





WINDHAM – Windham Fire Chief Michael Scarey said Hurricane Irene has “wiped out” downtown Windham. Torrential rains that started Saturday night forced evacuations, submerged school buses and garages and shut down access to the rest of the mountain top.

More than 10 inches of rain fell on the community with an estimated three to four feet of water rushing through Main Street, decimating everything in its path.

Further west, a house was ripped from its foundation and was swallowed by the fast moving creek. It slammed into a bridge.

Fire fighters spent much of the day rescuing people from their flooded homes. One woman was rescued after she was pinned to a tree by the sheer force of the flood waters.
2740. Grothar
2741. Patrap
I feel Gustav showed the World NOLA has come far since K,and to be sure,we who Grew up in Waveland,Bay St Louis know many who lost family in both areas.

As Americans we share the day for the remembrance of the lost and suffered.


I kept my promise of being first into Texas in 08 after they helped La. so graciously after K.

From a single post here in my blog n Sept 08, to as recently as today, I've stayed true to that promise thru Portlight.

But this is my last post till that need arises again.

My head is empty for words, but my heart remains NOLA and Gulf Coast.

May we all respect the Hurricane and let us not forget the past, for when we do, were doomed to repeat it.

Carry on,..live well, and cherish what you Love most..for in a single day you can lose it.










2742. bassis
Quoting AussieStorm:
Windham downtown decimated by storm





WINDHAM – Windham Fire Chief Michael Scarey said Hurricane Irene has “wiped out” downtown Windham. Torrential rains that started Saturday night forced evacuations, submerged school buses and garages and shut down access to the rest of the mountain top.

More than 10 inches of rain fell on the community with an estimated three to four feet of water rushing through Main Street, decimating everything in its path.

Further west, a house was ripped from its foundation and was swallowed by the fast moving creek. It slammed into a bridge.

Fire fighters spent much of the day rescuing people from their flooded homes. One woman was rescued after she was pinned to a tree by the sheer force of the flood waters.


Is that Vermont?
Quoting bassis:


Is that Vermont?

Not sure. Could be NY or VE.
Awesome satellite loop

2745. rv1pop
Quoting DFWjc:
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
PTL
Quoting MississippiWx:
We will never forget. 8/29/2011



Katrina is not in the Gulf right now. You mean 8/29/2005 :)
2747. cmahan
Quoting bassis:


Is that Vermont?


Windham, NY. Dilbert creator Scott Adams put out a call on his blog for someone to check on his dad, he grew up in the area. (He says his father lives on high ground and is likely okay, but may be cut off and need help.)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Katrina is not in the Gulf right now. You mean 8/29/2005 :)


...Good point. :-)
Japan may get hit again.
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)
TD 12 has the potential to be saving grace for Quicksilvers 1 million dollar surf contest in New York From Sept 4th.-to 15th. Long beach.
I have been lurking on this site since 2004 and I have only posted once before. Im in Beaufort County, NC and this is the first opportunity I have had to get on line since Irene. There is lots of damage from Irene in Eastern NC. My parents were notified yesterday that their river house along the South side of the Pamlico river was destroyed. We managed to make it down there to survey the damage. Let me tell you, It is total devestation. I saw house after house lifted off foundations by the surge and blown into the swamp. I saw many homes and parts of homes that looked as if they had bomb explode within. It is the worst damage I have ever seen. We are hearing local reports that just in Beaufort and Hyde Counties more than 600 people have no homes to go back too. Tyrell county has not even been able to be surveyed yet due to flooding, fallen trees and lack of accesability. Sorry for the long post. I just wanted to get this information out. Irene may have been a category 1 storm, but in eastern NC it has had the storm surge and damage consistent with a category 3.
Wind shear on the west side??

2753. emcf30
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah.


Actually, the photos you posted are from Windham,NY located in Greene County
Nice link if you want to know for sure which states got affected. I say Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Link
2755. ackee
whach and see TD#12 track will shift futher WEST and south
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear on the west side??



It was mainly the entrainment of dry continental air.
Quoting fsumet:
Top 10 Analog Tracks for TD 12:

They do not want those posted, according to the text in the plot.

If we continue to do it anyway, they may restrict access. (which would suck, don't you think?)
That is interesting to watch that loop of Katrina. What did cause that sudden weakening / deterioration (particularly on the western side) right before landfall? Just curious.
2741. Patrap 11:19 AM EDT on August 29, 2011

Not sure what you mean by last post but hope that all is well with you and your family and keep the faith. Once a storm hits the US as Irene did relatively early in the season and many lives were lost, I have lost some interest in following them as closely....Too much hype on WC for parts North of the Carolinas which took the brunt of the storm and too much hype on here from some bloggers hoping for US landfalls....My bud lost his Summer home on the Carolina Coast....What Can I Say?
Quoting TropicalGenesis:
--- From NWS - San Juan - They believe it will find the weakness to stay far away to the North of PR Sat/Sun.

NEWLY FORMED TD#12 XPCD TO BECOME TS KATIA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH WEAKNESS TO STEER THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE ON A NW TRACK AND KEEP IT AT A SAFE DISTANCE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE STORM
BECOMES AS INTENSE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
NEXT MON SEPT 05.



yipee! :D :D :D :D :D :D (saving gas money)




The stronger she gets the further North and likely to move out to sea.....
2762. jpsb
Quoting chawk:
inconspicuous little spin in the GOM just north of the Yucatan and the SE GOM is getting very wet. Got 3" of rain in 4 hours this morning in Palm Harbor.
I am so jealous! Plase send so of that rain to the Galveston-Houston area, Tia
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM
UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE
EYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN
CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA
BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT
MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.
THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
HURRICANE!
2764. junie1
Quoting ackee:
whach and see TD#12 track will shift futher WEST and south

I feel the same way im in the islands so i watch all systems until they clear us completely
Quoting MississippiWx:
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM
UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE
EYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN
CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA
BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT
MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.
THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
HURRICANE!


Ok.
On these date we all know Katrina made landfall.Sadly her replacement "katia" wants to form today.By the way the media while doing Irene coverage was mentioning one of the Doc's most favorite word......"Unprecedented".









BELOW are the BAM models.......the light colored blue is the BAMS....the darkest is the BAMD
Quoting junie1:

I feel the same way im in the islands so i watch all systems until they clear us completely
Same here. Not taking any chances after Earl :)
2770. jpsb
Quoting DVG:
New, convincing evidence indicates global warming is caused by cosmic rays and the sun

Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.
2771. 7544
models already are starting to shift west with td 12 ?
2772. Tijer
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I'm in Mississippi and I remember Katrina very well. My home gone, but the worst part is to go around trying to at least find some memories, photos or some other items which are of personal value. We were largely ignored, but to us it did not matter, because people in Mississippi did not need the attention we rebuilt our towns by ourselves and of course with the help of those who came down here to lend a hand. New Orleans, well, there are many who also suffered there and I can assure you that many of them where very decent people, but generally their reaction to the aftermath was quite different to ours. The reason they were devastated was mainly due to the levees giving way after so many warnings were given to their officials about the need to reinforce them. The lack of leadership also contributed to the disaster in evacuating the residents. But I know I will take heat for saying this and it will happen again and perhaps worse. I'm just glad to be living in the right side of the border.


NOLA was a man made disaster. From what I have seen, they have learned nothing. Thus, they will repeat it. Since then, my insurance has doubled, and I do not need/have flood. I will guess that thanks to Irene, it will double again. The first bill comes in October.
Quoting jpsb:
Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.



NOPE they don't........its all about the Sun! Its all about $$$$$$$$$$
upper level ac over 12

Good Morning!



I see that we have TD 12. Looks healthy on satellite.

On another note, I took a moment of silence this morning with my family in remembrance of the victims of the most destructive hurricane to ever hit the US 6 years ago. Our prayers are with the families who lost everything in the disaster, and those who lost loved ones.



We Remember: 8/29/05
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure why they didn't play this during Irene.It's almost "unprecedented".Lol.
Quoting jpsb:
Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
Quoting serialteg:
upper level ac over 12

Looks like one is trying to set up over that other wave to.
mswx whats your thoughts on td 12?
It's interesting to see this tropical wave flare up today. The NAM has been developing it into a moderate strength tropical storm and takes it to Louisiana in the next few days. However, there's not much support for the NAM solution.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
LOLOL. I'm not sure he phrased that statement exactly the way he wanted to


HIGH Pressure is trying to build over the top right at the end......thata may not be a good thing......
Quoting AllStar17:
Japan may get hit again.
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


I do not like your graphical reports!
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
mswx whats your thoughts on td 12?


Check out my blog. I made one last night on it, but it still applies.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
The big furnace also brings heat to us during the summer months.And it's causing the drought in Texas.Some people just don't make since.The Sun has everything to do with weather.Without the sun Earth will just be a big thing of rock floating in space.The sun also helps with plants.I can keep going down the list.
Uh-Oh! Jason is back!

POOF!

The west casting will be in full force, once again.
Quoting Jasoniscoolman2015:
WHAT IS THAT!!!
Oh lord not again.Remember everybody. "!" and "-".Or press ignore.
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
The west casting will be in full force, once again.


YES!! it has to come to TX.....starting.....now
2799. scott39
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.



LOOKS like a SPIN is trying to start in the Caribbean.......We need to watch this very close.




Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh lord not again.Remember everybody. "!" and "-".Or press ignore.


Yep.

Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh lord not again.Remember everybody. "!" and "-".Or press ignore.
and don't quote him lol
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Yep.

That's funny.
Quoting masonsnana:
and don't quote him lol
I only quoted him so everybody can see who I'm talking about.
Quoting scott39:
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.


That's not necessarily true. There is a lot of debate on the effects of the NAO, but we've been in a negative NAO for most of this season and we were also in the negative most of last season. A neutral or slightly positive NAO favors tracks more to the west. In 2005 and 2008, we had a slightly positive NAO during the peak months and we know what happened.

A strongly positive NAO favors a strong A/B high, but it is displaced to the east some, while a trough tends to carve itself out along the Eastern Seaboard.

A neutral to slightly positive NAO is worse for U.S. landfalls.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.


There was a man named Steve Blog who got the idea in a dream. Next thing you know, its all over the Internet bearing his name.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's funny. I only quoted him so everybody can see who I'm talking about.


Where is KOTG or Taz when you need them?
2812. MahFL
Don't quote the trolls, just ignore them.
12L is moving fairly slowly right now, may not get a floater until tomorrow. Remember, once the system gets to 30W, it will get a floater.



(Click to enlarge)
On this day six years ago, Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. Are developed countries now more well-prepared for catastrophic tropical cyclones?

Elsewhere in the tropics, Irene floods Canada, and the remnants of Jose are being dragged by Irene toward Cape Breton Island and Newfoundland. Jose's butt is still bringing convection to Bermuda.

Typhoon Nanmadol has hit southern Taiwan, and will track into the southern central provinces of China, presenting a significant flooding risk.

Although tropical storm Talas is currently extremely broad and almost disorganized, current forecasts project it to make landfall just west of the Tokyo-Yokohama Bay region, due in part of Fujiwara interaction with Nanmadol. This is potentially a threatening scenario, considering the storm is about ten degrees (roughly 1,100 km or 690 mi) wide, and will likely make landfall at a similar diameter as a strong category one. Considering that Katrina's initial landfall and Irene's final landfall were both cat. 1, these storms need to be watched.



Talas track forecast.

In the Atlantic still, TD 12L has developed, and promises to be a significant threat to the Gulf, Florida, US East Coast, Bermuda, random fish and/or Newfoundland. The wake left by Irene's slow motion and upwelling thereof has cooled most of the Gulf Stream region significantly, though that could vamp up again when future Katia approaches. A side note: sea surface temperatures off Louisiana are 32C (90F).

Finally, considering that Irene has almost exited the WU consciousness field, let's look again at the famous SST maps. (*groan*)



We observe that La Nina's second episode is picking up again: notice the cool anomaly offshore southern Peru. In the North Pacific, however (read: PDO zone), a 20C SST isotherm lurks barely 1,200 km from Portland, Oregon. Compared to last year, this is much closer to shore, and an axis extending from Hawaii to San Francisco is warmer.

In other news, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake struck the San Andreas two days ago. This is the first M4.5 earthquake in the region in three months.

Quoting MississippiWx:


That's not necessarily true. There is a lot of debate on the effects of the NAO, but we've been in a negative NAO for most of this season and we were also in the negative most of last season. A neutral or slightly positive NAO favors tracks more to the west. In 2005 and 2008, we had a slightly positive NAO during the peak months and we know what happened.

A strongly positive NAO favors a strong A/B high, but it is displaced to the east some, while a trough tends to carve itself out along the Eastern Seaboard.

A neutral to slightly positive NAO is worse for U.S. landfalls.
So what NAO phase are we in now?
2817. bassis
Quoting Jasoniscoolman2015:
DO YOU SEE THAT!!! BIG TROPICAL WAVE!!!!


Stay away from Caps lock and somebody might take you a little more seriously
2818. jpsb
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12L is moving fairly slowly right now, may not get a floater until tomorrow. Remember, once the system gets to 30W, it will get a floater.



(Click to enlarge)


Already has a floater on RAMSDIS.

2820. scott39
Quoting scott39:
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.
Negative NAO----Stronger High. Positive NAO-----Amplified stronger troughs that break down the High.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.


I have...hypergraphia.
For those who haven't noticed, there have been a few HURDAT changes this month for some older storms:

"In August 2011 – Multiple changes are introduced to HURDAT:
1) Four new tropical cyclones were added: 1899 (tropical storm), 1901 (hurricane),
1904 (hurricane), and 1909 (tropical storm);
2) Alterations to the track and/or intensity of some tropical cyclones in 1857, 1859,
1866, 1882, 1885, 1887, 1900, 1901, 1909, 1910, 1912, 1915, 1921, 1922, 1925,
1926, 1927, and 1930;
3) Significant changes for U.S. hurricanes: 1857 North Carolina hurricane -
upgraded from Category 1 to Category 2, a new 1859 Florida Category 1 hurricane,
1882 Louisiana hurricane - downgraded from a Category 2 to a tropical storm,
1885 South Carolina hurricane - downgraded from Category 3 to Category 2,
1887 Texas hurricane - downgraded from Category 2 to Category 1, and
1925 Florida hurricane - downgraded from a Category 1 to a tropical storm;
4) Minor intensity changes for Georges (1980), Floyd (1981), Helene (1988), and
Keith (1988). These all contained original best track windspeeds to the overly
precise nearest 1 kt. Values are adjusted to the nearest 5 kt currently used."

The 1925 Florida Hurricane was once thought to be the latest hurricane to hit the US, but analysis has shown that not to be the case.

HURDAT changes Aug2011
2823. NEwxguy
I see the fish people are already at it,if there anything they're consistent.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what NAO phase are we in now?


Neutral - Slightly positive.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Where is KOTG or Taz when you need them?
They havn't been posting much as of late.
2826. HCW
We will have INVEST 93L before the end of the day in the Carib :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what NAO phase are we in now?


We are currently in a neutral phase, but forecast by the models to go slightly positive over the coming week.

2015 impostor or a post-Irene return attempt?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


if it is anything like bill or earl, i will be watchin for sure!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Neutral - Slightly positive.
Crap....
Quoting jpsb:
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.


ok :-) I figured it has to be a joke.
Quoting washingtonian115:
They havn't been posting much as of late.


They were on last night.
Quoting MississippiWx:


We are currently in a neutral phase, but forecast by the models to go slightly positive over the coming week.

Then Katia or T.D 12 could pose a threat to the Carribean and the U.S?
Being sheared and has dry air problems, but may develop into something in the Gulf of Mexico, as the NAM as been consistently been hinting. Remember, the NAM has done very well this season, surprisingly.

The Atlantic has become much more unstable over the last couple of weeks. The instability has spiked to much closer to normal levels.

Tropical Atlantic



Subtropical Atlantic

Quoting NoVaForecaster:


They were on last night.
I can never catch them.I've been on and off the blog.
2837. sarepa
New Blog
Quoting washingtonian115:
Crap....


Worst part of that is, if another major storm threatened the ECOTUS people wont take it seriously after the "blown forecast" of Irene. They don't know she was probably only a taste of what could come.
NEW BLOG!!!!
2840. rv1pop
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where did we get this idea of blogging in the comment section of a blog?

lol, seriously, I'm curious.
That has been my thought for a long time. This way there is no link back so when someone quotes a post, trying to find it is ..... worse than predicting Irene's track.
NEW BLOG
Quoting washingtonian115:
Then Katia or T.D 12 could pose a threat to the Carribean and the U.S?


It's hard to say at this point. The NAO theories aren't set in stone. Just because we have a neutral or slightly positive NAO doesn't mean we can't have one passing trough that takes it out to sea. If the NAO remains neutral to slightly positive, however, I believe the chances are higher. Also, a slightly negative NAO isn't terribly against landfalling storms in the U.S. either.
2844. bassis
I was wondering if Irene cooled the waters much.
As we are remembering Katrina today, let us not forget The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 next Thursday. Between 6-12 thousand souls perished in that storm and everytime I read Isaac's Storm I feel like I had gone through it myself. Truly heartbreaking.
2846. MahFL
I co-worker just walked by and as he's a long time Floridian said "another one already, well I guess it's that time of year".
2847. Tijer
Quoting jpsb:
Lol, just having a little fun. I believe I've read that the brightness of the Sun increases 10% every 1 billion years. If true then I am afraid there is nothing long term that can be done about global warming, it's a done deal. However short term I find it interesting that the earth climate is considerably cooler now then say 100 million years ago. Huge Ice Caps seem to be a recently development for Earth, save Snowball Earth some 700ish million years ago. So why is the Earth cooling at the same time the Sun is "warming", curious yes? Kinda makes me think there is a lot going on that we have little knowledge of. Sure glad we didn't try desperate measures back in the 70's to prevent the new ice age all the climate science said was coming. I am all for reducing man's foot print on our climate as much is reasonably possible, and I'm all for continued (real) research but please let drop all the hype until we have a better understanding of just what is happening and why.


Why drop the hype, when money and paychecks are involved! LMAO!
Katia should be clear recurve on 12Z GFS
see we wont know for awhile the extent of the damage from irene hopefully the bridges and dams are not compromised
Quoting Tijer:


NOLA was a man made disaster. From what I have seen, they have learned nothing. Thus, they will repeat it. Since then, my insurance has doubled, and I do not need/have flood. I will guess that thanks to Irene, it will double again. The first bill comes in October.


We have learned everything, the hard way. Its the politicians in the Congress and the Corps and people who make uninformed statements about New Orleans who have learned nothing.

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