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Irene continues to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:46 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.


Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.


Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory.  Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. JRRP


here we go again
2002. Levi32
950.9mb extrapolated:

055730 3324N 07634W 6967 02715 9509 150 070 131009 012 009 003 03

She's still holding steady, amazingly.
Pretty much the same as it has been all evening:

055730 3324N 07634W 6967 02715 9509 +150 +070 131009 012 009 003 03
Quoting Levi32:


These are a lot weaker than even earlier today, though, which is good news. However, it is the very weakest quadrant of the storm. We'll see if they are weaker elsewhere as well. We're about to get a pressure reading in the eye.


Yeah, local news was calling this worse than isabel all day. It wont even come close to isabels power.
Quoting JRRP:


here we go again


Yeah here we go again....can't see links from that site anymore.....been going on all day.
2006. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, local news was calling this worse than isabel all day. It wont even come close to isabels power.


Well it's not a perpendicular hit to the NC coast so it's not going to beat Isabel in North Carolina. That won't be true farther north though.
Quoting MSweatherguy:
Great website Tampa

Tropical Links? Thanks! I find it very useful. :)
2008. Mucinex
Not that I'm completely oblivious or insensitive with whats going on with Irene.
But as my main interest is cyclogenesis, anyone have any thoughts on the GFS and ECMWF runs from 66-336 hours (ie Bermuda)?
Quoting AllStar17:
It appears that Irene's southwestern quadarant lacks any hurricane force winds.


The same happened when it was a storm over PR.... We had some TS gusts in the North east but in the SW they felt no winds at all.. The tail, did really bring a lot of rain to that area...
2010. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


The same happened when it was a storm over PR.... We had some TS gusts in the North east but in the SW they felt no winds at all.. The tail, did really bring a lot of rain to that area...


?

We had sustained TS force winds, did you mean Hurricane force gusts?
Station 41036
NDBC
Location: 34.206N 76.952W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 27 Aug 2011 05:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 42.7 kt gusting to 58.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 28.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 15 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (181°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.87 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F
Night all. Thanks to everyone for the informative posts... stay safe and dry. :)
2013. cwf1069
Irene is moving almost due north. For the last couples of hours she resume her track a little be to the left.
2014. tarps3
Don't know if any of this has been posted or not but here are some Tweets from AP and other news sources:

32 minutes ago: "Morehead City, NC, just went dark as wind from intensifies. Battery power only from here on out. "

3 hours ago: "Brunswick NC EOC is on generator power, buzzing along while the rest of the government complex is dark."
2015. Levi32
The northeast eyewall still has 90 kt flight-level winds:

000
URNT15 KNHC 270612
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 19 20110827
060300 3338N 07617W 6967 02783 9597 133 067 148069 070 063 008 00
060330 3339N 07615W 6961 02794 9622 115 067 149071 073 064 010 00
060400 3340N 07614W 6967 02791 9637 108 066 147071 073 066 014 00
060430 3342N 07612W 6969 02802 9642 112 064 148072 075 067 011 00
060500 3343N 07610W 6967 02814 9665 100 063 148077 080 067 013 00
060530 3344N 07609W 6965 02822 9672 102 062 150083 084 068 013 00
060600 3346N 07607W 6966 02831 9680 104 060 150082 084 069 009 00
060630 3347N 07606W 6967 02838 9690 103 059 150082 082 069 008 00
060700 3348N 07604W 6967 02846 9695 108 059 153083 084 070 008 00
060730 3349N 07603W 6963 02861 9709 103 059 153085 086 069 014 00
060800 3351N 07601W 6982 02846 9732 091 059 149086 087 069 019 00
060830 3352N 07559W 6956 02878 9735 092 057 153087 088 069 019 00
060900 3353N 07558W 6970 02875 9745 093 055 150087 088 069 016 00
060930 3355N 07556W 6966 02886 9747 098 054 151089 091 070 015 00
061000 3356N 07555W 6979 02877 9762 091 054 151087 088 070 022 00
061030 3357N 07553W 6958 02906 9776 085 053 147090 093 072 018 00
061100 3359N 07552W 6964 02908 9785 082 051 147088 089 071 015 00
061130 3400N 07550W 6969 02908 9786 089 049 148091 092 067 016 00
061200 3401N 07549W 6968 02915 9785 096 049 148089 091 069 014 00
061230 3402N 07547W 6966 02922 9782 105 048 149086 086 069 009 00
061030 3357N 07553W 6958 02906 9776 +085 +053 147090 093 072 018 00

Still not very impressive even in the NE quadrant.
Tides running 3+ ft. above predicted at Wrightsville Beach, NC and Beaufort, NC and appear to be building. High Tide ~6am


Hurricane IRENE QuickLook
Posted: 00:00 EDT 08/27/2011



Storm Analysis

As of 08/27/2011 00:00 EDT, water levels at stations from northeastern Florida to North Carolina are elevated between 0.5 and 3.5 feet above predicted tide levels, with the exception of Oregon Inlet Marina, NC and USCG Station Hatteras, NC. Water levels along the North Carolina coast are rising. Levels along the Atlantic coast of Virginia and Maryland as well as the entrance to the Chesapeake Bay remain at or slightly above predicted. Winds are generally increasing from Georgia to the Carolinas, especially at Wrightsville Beach, NC and Springmaid Pier, SC where sustained winds of 40 kts and gusts close to 50 kts have been measured over the past few hours. Barometric pressure continues to fall accross the region.

Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically.
this is going to be a rain event for Ny and New England!
did oz stop by the liqour store for the wiskey you know that will make a cat 1 look like a cat 3 maybe a 4 the more drinks you have hic....
Morehead City

Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
this is going to be a rain event for Ny and New England!


That just isn't true...the storm is still extremely powerful and will spread its impacts all the way up the eastern seaboard including in inland areas.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did oz stop by the liqour store for the wiskey you know that will make a cat 1 look like a cat 3 maybe a 4 the more drinks you have hic....


You watching that too? holy ch!t he's freaking out...
Quoting Levi32:
Very lackluster winds in the SW quad of Irene on this new pass from the hurricane hunters.



Not really surprised to hear that, convection is completely gone in the southwest quadrant as seen on radar.
Is Irene really this weak?
Winds have picked up a fair amount here in Elizabeth City. Rain bands coming in are definitely stronger than the previous. Rain is now moderate to heavy, gusts are in the 30mph range. Lightning and thunder with this band.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did oz stop by the liqour store for the wiskey you know that will make a cat 1 look like a cat 3 maybe a 4 the more drinks you have hic....
Now Thumper . . .
Don't be surprised if the storm ramps up just a bit between now and the 5AM advisory period.

Atmospheric conditions have heretofore not been friendly to this storm since its trek through the Bahamas. But with the rapidly approaching trough, that could change. Being such an oddball storm it can provide surprises that one would not expect from reading the textbooks on tropical systems.

Also, the SST's are warmer than normal and we have contradictory SST readings for the waters north of NC up to near Long Island.
Have a great night, everyone! Hopefully I wake up to a much weaker Irene!
Quoting atmosweather:


That just isn't true...the storm is still extremely powerful and will spread its impacts all the way up the eastern seaboard including in inland areas.


When it hits the NE will it be hurricane force or tropical storm based on the newest data?
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Is Irene really this weak?
yes and it will be getting even weaker as the morning goes by tommorrow may just be a strong tropical storm as she finishes the ride up the coast
2031. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Is Irene really this weak?


Don't be fooled. This is a 950mb hurricane and her power will be felt. The recon doesn't support more than Cat 1 winds, but stronger winds could come to the ground in gusts after landfall, and the very low pressure means that the overall power of the storm is immense and comparable to a Cat 3, which is what it would be if it had an eyewall without dry air. The size of the wind field means the coastline will get raked with 50kt or higher winds for many many hours straight, which is capable of doing substantial damage.
2032. tarps3
what is the link to oz's website again?
2033. Levi32
Well there is no temperature difference between the inside and outside of the eye, but at least it's not saturated inside the eye anymore lol.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/05:57:10Z
B. 33 deg 22 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2679 m
D. 54 kt
E. 221 deg 73 nm
F. 295 deg 61 kt
G. 212 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Dropsonde measures 952 mb and a 700 mb height of 2681 meters in the eye.

And the maximum flight level winds just found were 100 kts:

061730 3415N 07531W 6975 02955 9875 +067 +049 141099 100 065 011 00
so Plymouth mass will be worse than where OZ is?
Quoting QacarXan:


When it hits the NE will it be hurricane force or tropical storm based on the newest data?


It is such a large storm and its pressure is still down near 950 mb...this is a powerful storm and will be slower to weaken than the average system moving up the east coast. I still expect her to remain at hurricane strength as she moves into Long Island and the rest of the NE.
2037. help4u
lol
Quoting tarps3:
what is the link to oz's website again?
www you need a drink .com
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is no temperature difference between the inside and outside of the eye, but at least it's not saturated inside the eye anymore lol.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/05:57:10Z
B. 33 deg 22 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2679 m
D. 54 kt
E. 221 deg 73 nm
F. 295 deg 61 kt
G. 212 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Lol yeah that's weird...its basically not an eye anymore just a dry spot in the center.
Quoting atmosweather:


It is such a large storm and its pressure is still down near 950 mb...this is a powerful storm and will be slower to weaken than the average system moving up the east coast. I still expect her to remain at hurricane strength as she moves into Long Island and the rest of the NE.


Thank you for your explanation--as always, your post was very helpful!

This certainly is a fickle storm! Might have to rewrite a few textbooks on tropical cyclones...
Quoting JLPR2:


?

We had sustained TS force winds, did you mean Hurricane force gusts?


Well, my family in Ponce, felt no TS force winds... (that's what they tell me) At least in the Pastillo - Fort Allen area...
In Caguas, we did felt TS force winds
LOL. As soon as I say good night, my new avatar shows up.
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
so Plymouth mass will be worse than where OZ is?


Wind gusts are expected to be around 90 mph where he is; around 65 mph in Plymouth.
Quoting tarps3:
what is the link to oz's website again?
crazymother.tv
Once the center makes landfall it usually causes the winds to pick up because the middle starts to spread out and makes the wind field increase
2046. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, my family in Ponce, felt no TS force winds... (that's what they tell me) At least in the Pastillo - Fort Allen area...
In Caguas, we did felt TS force winds, but were sporadical...


I had sustained TS winds in Carolina,PR would dare to say there could have been a hurricane gust in there.

But yes, from what I heard the south didn't feel much.
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is no temperature difference between the inside and outside of the eye, but at least it's not saturated inside the eye anymore lol.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/05:57:10Z
B. 33 deg 22 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2679 m
D. 54 kt
E. 221 deg 73 nm
F. 295 deg 61 kt
G. 212 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.
I think this was the first HH pass where the SFMR or any dropsondes did not record a single 75 kt wind. They obviously exist in the NE-ern portion of the convection but it shows how broadly her energy is sprawled out and how poorly the flight level winds are mixing down to the surface.
2049. Levi32
Satellite blackout is over. No wonder the recon found nothing on the west side lol.

Well, best as I can tell, she's still 60 miles off of Harkers island... Even if she's going straight north at her current speed, she's got 5 more hours over water.

It's starting to look like she'll just skirt the outer banks like Levi was pointing out. That would be good if it was the beginning of a larger NE turn, but bad if it basically continues going up the coast with the center just off shore.

The forecast points now look like that's exactly what's going to happen... Over Nags head, and skirt the coast all the way to the West end of Long Island, just East of NYC.

Could be an interesting 24 hours... She shouldn't weaken much more along that track. If she would just go inland now, she would probably drop off quick...

Is Irene a Fat Lady? If she is, I don't think she's ready to sing yet...
Quoting Levi32:
Satellite blackout is over. No wonder the recon found nothing on the west side lol.



brutal dry air intrusion
2052. Levi32
I'm going to grab some sleep now. I'll be back in a while. Everyone stay safe!
2053. njdevil
Quoting Levi32:
Satellite blackout is over. No wonder the recon found nothing on the west side lol.



Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is no temperature difference between the inside and outside of the eye, but at least it's not saturated inside the eye anymore lol.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/05:57:10Z
B. 33 deg 22 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2679 m
D. 54 kt
E. 221 deg 73 nm
F. 295 deg 61 kt
G. 212 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.
Quoting njdevil:


Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.
yes
Quoting iahishome:
Well, best as I can tell, she's still 60 miles off of Harkers island... Even if she's going straight north at her current speed, she's got 5 more hours over water.

It's starting to look like she'll just skirt the outer banks like Levi was pointing out. That would be good if it was the beginning of a larger NE turn, but bad if it basically continues going up the coast with the center just off shore.

The forecast points now look like that's exactly what's going to open... Over Nags head, and skirt the coast all the way to the West end of Long Island, just East of NYC.

Could be an interesting 24 hours... She shouldn't weaken much more along that track. If she would just go inland now, she would probably drop off quick...

Is Irene a Fat Lady? If she is, I don't think she's ready to sing yet...


On radar Irene seems to be moving around 015 degrees, or just N of NNE, and has been doing that for about 90 minutes. If that continues up until landfall she will cross the coastline closer to Core Sound and Cedar Bar Island just a hair E of Cape Lookout, rather than Cape Hatteras or just over the edge of the farther Outer Banks islands.

2057. Ryuujin
Whats got me worried is that all people focus on are the winds. The winds rarely kill. Surge and flooding kills. 1 cubic yard of water has over a thousand lbs of force. Just 1. That is how dangerous it is.
people are freaking over on GLP about oz...

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 612707/pg45#26638220
Gonna start taking some video tomorrow night.

Might do a livestream if conditions permit.
West side is completely dry ... Kinda like how Hurricane
Ivan was.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.


Its more like a circular dry spot in the center of the storm. There hasn't been a proper eyewall for about 9-12 hours, just slightly stronger convection around 30-50 miles from the center from time to time.
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
Waves are battering the pier.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
crazymother.tv

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!
Where is he now?
Quoting StormTop5000:
people are freaking over on GLP about oz...

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 612707/pg45#26638220


why would anyone read any of this jibberish?
2065. njdevil
How long can that dry side of the storm hold? Or does it just sorta recondense itself with a smaller "wet" field?
Quoting winter123:

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!


Dolly
Quoting winter123:

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!
Where is he now?

That would of been Hurricane Alex.
I hope u guys pull through this storm ok along the eastern seaboard stay safe all.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
how long can the pier withstand
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
how long can the pier withstand


It went down in Fran in '96.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
how long can the pier withstand
pier parts are breaking up
Quoting njdevil:
How long can that dry side of the storm hold? Or does it just sorta recondense itself with a smaller "wet" field?


There is about 15-20 kts of southwesterly shear that is helping to pound her western side with dry air flowing off the southeast U.S. She hasn't really weakened all that much at all despite all of her inner structural changes and the less than ideal environment. Because she is so large and has so much energy spread out over a huge distance she is more capable of maintaining her strength for longer in worse conditions, or at least weakening at a slower pace than the average storm would.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
Waves are battering the pier.
Impressive swells and it's still 3 hrs to high tide.
Quoting atmosweather:


Its more like a circular dry spot in the center of the storm. There hasn't been a proper eyewall for about 9-12 hours, just slightly stronger convection around 30-50 miles from the center from time to time.



Yeah definitely a strange hurricane, I'm drawn to it for its weirdness, just as much as I'm drawn to the awesome structure of well organized hurricanes, lol.
2075. scott39
There are some peak winds to the NE of the center gusting at 125mph at 2500 ft in the air. This is what the latest dropzone from the planes readings were....per TWC. Do not focus on just the center. Irenes winds will not weaken quickly to the N and E. This is a stronger TC to the NE of the center....than the center is.
Big time band moving in soon. Could be cane force gusts here.

I'm thinking Topsail Pier's gonna make it... The storms basically even with it now and it's on the week side. I would expect the waves to start dying down over there in the next few hours.

I gotta crash... Good luck to all.

Please don't get upset if Irene doesn't pound you as hard as we all expected!

It reminds me of my old joke about the Hurricane Floyd virus... It temporarily moves all of the data on 1/2 of the hard drive then destroys the data on the other half... The half that survives complains about the inconvenience!
2078. nymore
This OZ is hilarious no planning no brains and for protection shin pads I could laugh all night at this guy.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
pier parts are breaking up
Think you are being fooled by camera shifts. When they rebuilt that thing they must have meant for it to take a licking. Peers like that usually wash out from underneath. Must have sunk those uprights to China.
Wow, the entire SW quarter is just a dry slot. This is reflected on radar too. Amazing it can stay so strong when it's being eaten alive by dry air and shear!
Sadly, I don't think any of the weather stations in Morehead city are reporting live... They all show winds out of the North, when clearly, they're out of the east and about to get interesting...
I thought the pier was breaking up too...but I think the shadow of the pier is thrown onto the oncoming waves in one of the rotating views...and it makes it seem as if pieces have been broken off and are being pushed back into the pier - just an optical illusion
Quoting atmosweather:


That just isn't true...the storm is still extremely powerful and will spread its impacts all the way up the eastern seaboard including in inland areas.

Would have to agree with 75 here. Not extremely powerful. Hurricane force winds in a small quadrant NE of eye. It will be weak and moving thru quick thru NE.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Think you are being fooled by camera shifts. When they rebuilt that thing they must have meant for it to take a licking. Peers like that usually wash out from underneath. Must have sunk those uprights to China.
A platform part was briefly visible in the closeup... the rounded end part of the pier is gone, right?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
00
WTNT34 KNHC 270658
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND
CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN FORT
MACON NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...120
KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN
TYRRELL COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN
Woohoo! down to 90mph keep dying Irene!
Which now means we have our first ever Category 1 hurricane with a pressure of 952 mb. Quite remarkable.
Gotta watch the reaction on this band moving in now, it's a doosie, then I am out.
2091. scott39
The real power of this storm is away from the center...to the NE and E. This is not looking good at all for the NE states.
Quoting TampaCat5:

Would have to agree with 75 here. Not extremely powerful. Hurricane force winds in a small quadrant NE of eye. It will be weak and moving thru quick thru NE.


Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.
2094. njdevil
The SW is just becoming totally naked. Not even cloud cover.

That's got to take a toll. Well, whatever it is, keep doing it.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A platform part was briefly visible in the closeup... the rounded end part of the pier is gone, right?


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....
Hmmm, wave height 28 feet at this buoy:

41036

And I think it's now west of the center... East side of Irene may still be no slouch.

OK, I'm not sleeping yet either... Just gotta see it come on shore...

I remember watching Katrina come on shore until the Slidell radar blew away as the eye wall hit it...

The last picture recorded was of Katrina's eyewall. I obviously don't expect that this time.
2097. vince1
Quoting njdevil:


Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.

HAARP? LOL
2098. scott39
I dont think some understand the magnitude of the extreme damage, that Irene is capable and more than likely will cause.
Thanks for that link to Nag's head... That's way out in front of the center...

Plus, I think I've heard that storm surge isn't as dangerous when a storm is perpendicular to the shore. I'll be interested to see how much the water comes up there... it already appears to be splashing over the end of the pier!
Quoting txarchitect:


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....
yeah but higher sea is announced so i really wonder how long it can withstand
Quoting txarchitect:


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....

The camera panned out into the waves and followed a bit of debris in addition to what you're describing. In addition to the pier bits, there seemed to be the hull of a white fiberglass boat. I thought it was part of a surfboard at first, then remembered the scale.
Quoting atmosweather:


Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.
2103. dewfree


Hurricane Irene Discussion Number 27 Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2011
Share This
Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late this afternoon and
early evening have found surface pressures of 950-951 mb and
flight-level winds ranging from 99 kt to 108 kt in the southeast
quadrant of Irene. However...SFMR surface winds have been much
lower than the Standard 90 percent reduction factor typically
yields. This disparity is likely due to the lack of significant
convection over the southern semicircle. NOAA Doppler radar data
from Wilmington and Morehead City have been indicating vigorous
convection redeveloping north and east of the ragged eye...with
Doppler velocities of 90 kt or greater at altitude above 15000
feet. Based on the radar data and the possibility that the stronger
flight-level winds could eventually work into northeast quadrant of
Irene...the initial intensity is being held at 85 kt.
Radar and recon fixes indicate Irene has made the long-forecast turn
toward the north-northeast now and is moving at 020/12 kt. Irene is
caught between a broad subtropical ridge to the east and an
approaching shortwave trough currently moving eastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The hurricane is expected to continue
moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours or so as the ridge
to the east amplifies northward. Thereafter...the cyclone should
accelerate to the northeast as it gets caught up in deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of the shortwave trough. The forecast
track has only been nudged slightly eastward of the previous track
through 36 hours due to the more eastward initial position.
However...all of the models suggest that some slight mid-level
ridging will occur across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic
states during the next 12-24 hours...which should act to keep Irene
close to the coasts of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. The
track forecast lies down the middle of the NHC guidance envelope
and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.
Irene is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28c until
landfall along the North Carolina Outer Banks in 12-18 hours. This
should allow the cyclone to maintain its current intensity or only
weaken slightly. After landfall...however...land interaction...
cooler water...and gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear is expected to induce steady weakening. Although a stationary
front currently lies across southern New England...this feature is
expected to lift northward due to the very large circulation of
Irene. This should delay extratropical transition until Irene is
over Maine or southeastern Canada.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 27/0300z 32.6n 76.9w 85 kt 100 mph
12h 27/1200z 34.2n 76.4w 80 kt 90 mph
24h 28/0000z 36.7n 75.5w 75 kt 85 mph
36h 28/1200z 39.8n 74.0w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 29/0000z 43.8n 71.3w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
72h 30/0000z 52.0n 62.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-
Consession: I conceed that the NHC won this one ,this time that is if Irene stays withen the forecast cone whitch was a spread 3 days ago from the models themselves. the least likely model had a better fix on it :Nogaps according to last seasons averages.looks like the short wave trough comming across from the nw is stronger then the last two that attacked Irene from the nw .of corse the further n Irene gets the stronger those influences will be .
hey 75 miles is not bad when you consider the forecast time was 905 miles out . hope it does make anyone angry because they were not brave enough to make such an assertion .that is 75 miles from the middle of a impact zone forecast made at 905 miles away .thanks for your time and all the good stuff i have een posted on this storm .minus a few troll comments .i think all in all it has been a very good experience. have a good one and untill the next storm .
Thanks Dr.masters for this wonderfull blog .
Dew

DO NOT let your guard down with this storm. Even in her current condition, she's retaining the kinetic energy of a strong CAT2 hurricane.

RECON back in for another center penetration with 949.8 mb.

071100 3343N 07634W 6973 02707 9498 +159 +073 214010 013 019 001 00
Conditions at CLKN7 as of
(3:00 am EDT)
0700 GMT on 08/27/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 58 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 66 kts

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.97 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.37 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

violent winds on the coast now
Quoting TampaCat5:

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.


No those winds are being found across the entire northern semicircle...some of them will move across the Outer Banks once the NW-ern portion of the "eyewall" makes landfall. And we will likely see reports of wind gusts around 10-20% higher than anything that the SFMR instrument is finding due to land friction and turbulence.
2108. njdevil
Weather channel is in Ashbury Park, NJ. lol. Where conditions are deteriorating.

Um. One, spell it right, two, can the melodramatics, the only thing deteriorating is the freaking humidity, it's just nasty right now.
Quoting BLee2333:
DO NOT let your guard down with this storm. Even in her current condition, she's retaining the kinetic energy of a strong CAT2 hurricane.


Considering the size of the circulation? Not that impressive. The KE is spread out over a large area mostly over sea. Honesty, if I was in NE my guard would be quite a bit. This thing will blow through quick with most of that KE out at sea.
the Infrared GEOS pics show the erosion of the circulation best... here are two pics, the top most recent at 2:45am, the second as of 11pm last night:

2111. njdevil
radar on the WC. that last shot. the offshore portion of the storm is a total mess.
I never appreciated the damage rising water could do until TS Allison stalled over my north Houston home dumping heavy rain for hours and hours. With water running well over the curbs, our french drains could not empty the rain from our backyard, and with no electricity we could not backwash the water out of the steadily rising swimming pool... we watched helplessly as the "pool" rose and flooded our entire first floor necessitating all the walls be replaced up to two feet as well as the carpet. We had time to move most of the furnishings up and out of the way. Although it was "clean" water (and surge water certainly is anything but clean) we still had huge damage and mold issues.

Parts of town less than five miles away had no flooding at all. Elsewhere, people died as the freeway "canyons" flash flooded and trapped folks in their cars.

A storm this size can do tremendous damage ... especially if it slows or stalls. And, with already heavily saturated soil, the prospects for flooding are almost as troubling as the high-tide-enhanced predicted surge issues.
Quoting atmosweather:


No those winds are being found across the entire northern semicircle...some of them will move across the Outer Banks once the NW-ern portion of the "eyewall" makes landfall. And we will likely see reports of wind gusts around 10-20% higher than anything that the SFMR instrument is finding due to land friction and turbulence.

Thought we were talking about New England. And uh, wind gusts, what is new about that. I never suggested there wouldn't be wind gusts. ??
5 counties in E-ern NC are under tornado warnings right now. Prayers go out to anyone riding out this storm. Here is a site that lists all active and expired severe weather warnings.
Topsail Island cam looking really rough. Maybe the surge is starting to pile in?
From a Scientific standpoint its very interesting how it's weakened and what not. Would've have been in some sad way, Valuable. To see how it wouldve played out if it had maintained strength or increased. In a future sort of study sense..

At the very least the surge potential remains deadly.. Everyone in its path remain cautious please.


@ Levi.. As a met major i visit this blog often during the season. And remain very impressed by your work. Keep it up good luck.
Back to lurking!
Morehead City, Beaufort and Cape Lookout getting absolutely smashed right now...I truly hope anyone on the shoreline that did not leave stays safe from this beast.
2118. njdevil
If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say that last HH did something to it. maybe 40% of the storm has gone "poof".
what a strange few days. Irene and Nanmadol both 2 categories lower than was predicted less than 12 hrs ago.
Ok, I am basically Confused (again), with out a eye or a identifiable center point of rotation, is Irene still a hurricane....OR has Irene become what we call (up here) a nor'easter...Irene sure an't no Agnes.
Does anyone know what city Oz is in?
2122. scott39
Quoting TampaCat5:

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.
2123. njdevil
Quoting atmosweather:
Morehead City, Beaufort and Cape Lookout getting absolutely smashed right now...I truly hope anyone on the shoreline that did not leave stays safe from this beast.


At least they don't have to contend with the back side of the storm because there is no backside.

Really unfortunate for those people it didn't implode 6 hours earlier. Almost everything nasty is on land. The sea portion right now is sad.
The Cape Lookout C-MAN station is now receiving close to hurricane force winds and over hurricane force gusts.
2125. Beremat
Oz is in the parking lot on this map:
http://g.co/maps/h5ba
Quoting hyperanthony:
Does anyone know what city Oz is in?


I believe he said he was in or around the Morehead City area.
2127. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.


Are you looking at it right now? Everything from the center to the west and the south and inbetween... is gone. Even part of the center.

I mean... gone. Naked swirl.

Quoting hyperanthony:
Does anyone know what city Oz is in?


He's in Morehead City, NC.
2129. scott39
Quoting njdevil:


Are you looking at it right now? Everything from the center to the west and the south and inbetween... is gone. Even part of the center.

I mean... gone. Naked swirl.

Yea, the center is decaying some, but the power is in the NE of this storm. This is going to the NE States. Irene is HUGE, she will not weaken fast enough to cut the NE states some slack.
2130. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Yea, the center is decaying some, but the power is in the NE of this storm. This is going to the NE States. Irene is HUGE, she will not weaken fast enough to cut the NE states some slack.


some? a good deal of the storm is gone. lol. not even cloud cover. something is seriously wrong with it.

I understand the NE quad is still pretty vicious as is the the stuff already on land N of the center... but how is it going to sustain itself at this point when it's naked?

Quoting scott39:
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.

Irene is going to pick up speed. And it *is* going to weaken fast. Look at thr forecast There is also a big flaw in your logic. She's piling up water on her right side. Irene is heading NNE, so where does that go? NNE. The surge doesn't suddenly change direction. Remember Katrina? Moved N, plowed N into land, the right side was perpendicular to the coast, so terrible storm surge. Irene is parallel to the coast, with the right side and powerful surge far to the east of center. This is not going to affect NE. Just look at NHC's own surge map.
This broadcast is hilarious.
Hey to CycloneOZ, I'm watching from Sydney Australia.
For all of the inner core degradation and the lack of strong surface winds, Irene remains unbelievably deep and continues to hold a minimum pressure around 950 mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270742
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/07:10:10Z
B. 33 deg 45 min N
076 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2678 m
D. 54 kt
E. 308 deg 21 nm
F. 053 deg 62 kt
G. 309 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 14 C / 3050 m
J. 16 C / 3050 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 06:17:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 07:31:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 308 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Cyclone Oz is broadcasting live from Morehead City right now. 7674u.com!

Mate, Just watching now. Get him to say hey to me next time you talk to him.
2138. scott39
Quoting njdevil:


some? a good deal of the storm is gone. lol. not even cloud cover. something is seriously wrong with it.

I understand the NE quad is still pretty vicious as is the the stuff already on land N of the center... but how is it going to sustain itself at this point when it's naked?

Think back to when it had 50mph winds to the N and E and the NHC was having a hard time finding a closed low. what about when it was just N of Hispanola and became a hurricane without and eye and the NE quad kept getting stronger. Then when it started heading to the Bahamas the W and S side of Irene finally started looking better. The point is that NE side aint going to die anytime soon. Its almost like the NE side can hold its own. I dont mean it doesnt need the coc, I just mean its one bad A area in Irene.
Irene has now broken the Atlantic Basin record for the lowest central pressure in both a Category 2 (942 mb) and a Category 1 storm (952 mb).
looks like representation is already recovering on satellite and radar. This is so strange I've never really seen a cyclone quite like this one. I'm almost rooting for Irene to recover for fighting so hard.

btw storm surge is still definitely a threat to NE. It will still be worse than even the worst Nor'Easters, which have been pretty bad.
NEW BLOG
2142. njdevil
how is it recovering when the last shot I saw was the sheer/dry air peeling off the SE end of the storm?

of course I can't see the radar box anymore because of the "flood watch" info bar. gee, ya think. hurricane warning... flood watch. never would have guessed.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
looks like representation is already recovering on satellite and radar. This is so strange I've never really seen a cyclone quite like this one. I'm almost rooting for Irene to recover for fighting so hard


She's been a very odd hurricane that's for sure. She "strengthened" into a hurricane while over Puerto Rico (although I'm sure the post-season analysis will upgrade her to a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall), and now she is maintaining an astonishingly low pressure with only Category 1 or 2 winds. I haven't seen a storm this odd since Hurricane Epsilon of 2005 that continued to maintain its strength and even intensify a little while over 22-23 degree waters in the north Atlantic...prompting 2 of the most entertaining forecast discussion wordings ever:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

-------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.
Quoting njdevil:
how is it recovering when the last shot I saw was the sheer/dry air peeling off the SE end of the storm?

of course I can't see the radar box anymore because of the "flood watch" info bar. gee, ya think. hurricane warning... flood watch. never would have guessed.


because clouds have somewhat started to re-wrap around where the dry slot formed, and radar reflectivity has increased. What's left of the eyewall has intensified in the last 45 minutes and cooler cloud tops have formed over the center. So although it has weakened, it's certainly not as weak as it looked an hour or two ago.
2145. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Think back to when it had 50mph winds to the N and E and the NHC was having a hard time finding a closed low. what about when it was just N of Hispanola and became a hurricane without and eye and the NE quad kept getting stronger. Then when it started heading to the Bahamas the W and S side of Irene finally started looking better. The point is that NE side aint going to die anytime soon. Its almost like the NE side can hold its own. I dont mean it doesnt need the coc, I just mean its one bad A area in Irene.


Well, that part is definitely resiliant. It's virtually all that's left right now. The core and the NE.

If you watched the radar from the point the sats went back up, it looks like when Pacman dies. lol.
2146. njdevil
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


because clouds have somewhat started to re-wrap around where the dry slot formed, and radar reflectivity has increased. What's left of the eyewall has intensified in the last 45 minutes and cooler cloud tops have formed over the center. So although it has weakened, it's certainly not as weak as it looked an hour or two ago.


well, it's a rotating storm, it's going to pull itself together in some form. I don't think it's just going to go up the coast as a NE quadrant pulling a ghost storm. but time that could be spent maintaining strength or even powering up a little will be used to pull itself together.

but alot of people on here last night were going on about it looking tight and that it could head to 115.

now it looks like this.

of course, that's how this stupid storm is. it's played me a bunch of times before. things I thought were good, weren't good. things I thought were bad weren't bad.

so what's one more. lol.

and hey, they finally spelled Asbury Park right.
Quoting njdevil:


well, it's a rotating storm, it's going to pull itself together in some form. I don't think it's just going to go up the coast as a NE quadrant pulling a ghost storm. but time that could be spent maintaining strength or even powering up a little will be used to pull itself together.

but alot of people on here last night were going on about it looking tight and that it could head to 115.

now it looks like this.

of course, that's how this stupid storm is. it's played me a bunch of times before. things I thought were good, weren't good. things I thought were bad weren't bad.

so what's one more. lol.

and hey, they finally spelled Asbury Park right.


well I certainly haven't been one of those who said it could strengthen to 115MPH. I would be surprised if it was able to strengthen at all (although, the NAM seems to think it might). But I think Irene did get a bit weaker than she was ready to accept a little while ago. That was really weird. 3 nights in a row now sudden cloud loss during the satellite blackout. Makes one give a slight thought about the weather modification posts that have popped up here and there LOL. Maybe our government forgot that hurricanes are actually very important for the planet's survival. Take those last two sentences with a lot of salt, btw ;)
ps - it's actually quite comical, there is now colder cloud-tops on satellite than there was before that dry air intrusion. I don't get it. But I'll roll with it haha
Cat 1 at this time and weakening.

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Cyclone Oz is right here.

Link


Protected by a barrier island? What fun is that??
Looks better in the last few frames.....amazing.
2152. Patrap