WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."


I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.


Jeff Masters
Tornado Power
Tornado Power
Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.
25 May,
25 May,
May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.
What A Storm
What A Storm

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

XX/AOI/XX



Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


Jason can you please stop posting random videos of the tropical wave in the Caribbean? You have nothing to say in those, plus it's just one image, in just one video. You're wasting blog space by doing that.
Quoting AllStar17:
The key for tropical systems is expect the unexpected.


You do not have to tell us Floridians that, we already have been taught that over and over by Mother Nature.
Pressure at this location is at 1009 mb:
Same old, same old on the 12z ECMWF. System gets stretched out to the northeast as it gets picked up by a trough.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


You do not have to tell us Floridians that, we already have been taught that over and over by Mother Nature.
Same as us in Gulfport/Biloxi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XX





Nice explosive thunderstorm activity as we head through the afternoon, doesn't look too shabby IMO.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
EMCWF was pretty much hitting right on with it last year. Whether the trends will continue, thats what we have to watch. But if you notice with those trends, they develop it from a low to mid tropical storm. The question is what are the Sea Surface Temperatures within the region currently, combine those with the shear values and you will have an idea of what those models are feeding off of.

Sea Surface Temperatures:

TCHP:

Shear Forecast:
CLICK HERE FOR 3 DAY SHEAR FORECAST
2009. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z ECMWF staying with the NE movement


Day 4: The ENE steering at 500mb is evident. A lot will have to do with how the cut-off upper low over the northern Yucatan behaves.

Florida has been lucky in the past few years or so. After Fay, they haven't seen much. I mean, they had Claudette (09) Ernesto(06) Alberto(06) and Bonnie (10). Those were mainly rainmakers, as they did little to no damage to Florida.
In relevant news...

Quick side note - all of this information has been posted already, but I thought I would mention it again since it is very relevant to seasonal activity.


Relative to the other basins, the Atlantic is the warmest -anomaly wise



Meaning the Atlantic is favored relative to the other basins in the coupling system.

Additionally, the NAO is forecasted to take a drop...



this signals decreased trade winds, meaning less upwelling and evaporative cooling. This means SSTs over the mid Atlantic will likely increase. Which will only increase our anomalies in our basin relative to the others, and obviously, allow for greater energy for emerging African waves, meaning faster development, and, in other words, more waves developing before leaving our basin.


Finally, the ECMWF is now forecasting a wetter than average Cape Verde season for July, August, and September



Also note lower predicted pressures during the same period




this is significant because previously it was forecasting a drier than average season.
I think that Pre-93L will prob. shoot off NNE-NE after it reaches 20N
2013. Levi32
It leaves a little piece down at the tail in the Caribbean throughout the forecast period, indicating that the situation is still fragile, but it will be interesting to see if consecutive model runs latch onto this northeast solution. The WATL trough is a lot stronger on this 12z run and farther south.

2014. emcf30
The earlier thunderstorms seem to be waning now.
2018. Asta
Any guesses on when the tropical low might move inland?
May 30, 2011 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The Trough is expect to merge with area of Low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean tomorrow.



24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers across northeastern parishes, partly cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms across sections of the island.
Tonight… Mostly cloudy.


3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Tue… Partly cloudy morning. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across sections of most parishes.
Wed/Thu… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across most areas.


Regionally… There is an Area of Low Pressure over the southwestern Caribbean that is still producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

nch
the problem is that this system if you may call it such is still feeding off the trough. Once that trough dies out, it will be interesting seeing how it behaves when its umbilical cord is cut, so to say
Asta, all models move it eastward away from land.
Quoting Asta:
Any guesses on when the tropical low might move inland?

most likely it won't
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah no. Even more severe potential. You stay safe up there too!


Thanks! This is the kind of weather pattern I hate because it gives us a lot of sticky, humid, stormy weather and mot much relief because the post-cold front winds come from the west, which then shift back to coming from the south again as a new low pops up in the southern plains.
Current Steering:


FORECAST STEERING:
Link
no doubt southern cuba is in for some heavy rain had a good shower this afternoon e cen florida
Quoting Levi32:


Sure. (Japanese site isn't working today)

ECMWF:



UKMET:



CFS:


Levi, can you post the link to the UKMET seasonal forecasts please?
Quoting AllStar17:
Pressure at this location is at 1009 mb:


Dew point 81F? YUCK, that humidity would make me sick. I thought the 74F dewpoint we got in Fargo last summer was unbearable! I'll take blizzards and -20F temps over that! :-)
Tropics Worldwide...
Western Pacific: Invest 90W now likely to form, and head Northeast into Taiwan... The Name Will be a Cambodian name, Sarika...
There is another tropical wave near Micronesia that has some tropical characteristics, this wave could form in 3 days or so...
Eastern Pacific: A low pressure system south of Mexico is forecasted by some computer models to form in 4 to 7 days
Atlantic: A 1007 Millibar Low in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, This low is supported by many hurricane models to form and head north into the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Cuba, Grand Cayman, or Haiti... This system could produce locally heavy rainfall, and some flooding... If the trough forecasted to be off to the Northeast of this low can't pull it out to sea, the system will sit for around 3 to 6 days while it waits for steering currents to change, once the high weakens it is possible that this system will head north into the Gulf, and afterwards hit Florida... If this low is to form, the name it will be given is Arlene...
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


Dew point 81F? YUCK, that humidity would make me sick. I thought the 74F dewpoint we got in Fargo last summer was unbearable! I'll take blizzards and -20F temps over that! :-)
no bad if you got an air conditioner
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tropics Worldwide...
Western Pacific: Invest 90W now likely to form, and head Northeast into Taiwan... Will the Cambodian name, Sarika...
There is another tropical wave near Micronesia that has some tropical characteristics, this wave could form in 3 days or so...
Eastern Pacific: A low pressure system south of Mexico is forecasted by some computer models to form in 4 to 7 days
Atlantic: A 1007 Millibar Low in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, This low is supported by many hurricane models to form and head north into the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Cuba, Grand Cayman, or Haiti... This system could produce locally heavy rainfall, and some flooding... If the trough forecasted to be off to the Northeast of this low can't pull it out to sea, the system will sit for around 3 to 6 days while it waits for steering currents to change, once the high weakens it is possible that this system will head north into the Gulf, and afterwards hit Florida... If this low is to form, the name it will be given is Arlene...


yep that looks correct
I think Doc needs a new blog
2032. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi, can you post the link to the UKMET seasonal forecasts please?


Link
yeah, me too cayman, 41 pages for a preseason blog is pretty irregular to see, definetley something out in the Atlantic for that to happen... 3 days since new blog...
Quoting Levi32:


Link
Thanks a bunch, been looking all over for it
2036. Asta
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Asta, all models move it eastward away from land.

Thanks,
I was just curious since this drought is so long, that we could use some rain.
UKMET model run on the low is actually pretty agreeable to me...
The NAM and GFS are predicting some bad storms in South Dakota and Nebraska, which then go just east of Fargo into Canada.

Quoting islander101010:
no bad if you got an air conditioner


I didn't know AC worked outside! :-p
crazy model here
Asta I am a native, so I am used to this weather.
jason, what model run is that?
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Asta I am a native, so I am used to this weather.


Sorry to Say this (I live in South Florida)...

But it doesnt look like Rainy Season will start soon.

2043. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
jason, what model run is that?


6z GFS
OLR Forecast
2046. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Sorry to Say this (I live in South Florida)...

But it doesnt look like Rainy Season will start soon.



Patience, sammy, patience. It will start soon.
2047. Levi32
Upper diffluence expected to increase over the Caribbean through mid-June:

2048. Levi32
12z ECMWF ensembles still very much onboard with development near Jamaica in 6-7 days based on the member variance (pink/purple colors). Thereafter it appears that a group of ensemble members take it northeast like the operational, but another group leaves it to sit in the northwest Caribbean through Day 10.

2049. Levi32
NAEFS is leaning more west in the ensemble means:

2050. Levi32
This should bring joy to some hearts.

The 12z Canadian ensemble mean keeps the low in the NW Caribbean through the beginning of next week. The Day 9 mean plot of all the ensemble members shows a lot of low positions (red numbers) in the vicinity of south Florida, which would mean rain. It's also noteworthy since it goes against the GFS ensembles here.

Quoting Levi32:
NAEFS is leaning more west in the ensemble means:



That would tend to coincide with the forecast steering over the next 5-6 days.
Global Teleconnections by Metcheck:
Link
2053. Bielle
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


Dew point 81F? YUCK, that humidity would make me sick. I thought the 74F dewpoint we got in Fargo last summer was unbearable! I'll take blizzards and -20F temps over that! :-)


What if you live where you get both? Sometimes I feel that the changes are on consecutive days. I know I have gone from furnace to a/c in 12 hours.
2054. xcool
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W TO THE PANAMA CANAL ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1442
ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT NORTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONGER WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY ALONG 80W TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MARINE
INTERESTS OVER THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
SINCE ITS POTENTIAL FORMATION COINCIDES WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AND OVER A REGION THAT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE MONTH OF JUNE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W S OF 13N WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 68W TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 72W WED
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.
2055. 7544
intresting
Quoting xcool:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W TO THE PANAMA CANAL ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1442
ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT NORTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONGER WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY ALONG 80W TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MARINE
INTERESTS OVER THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
SINCE ITS POTENTIAL FORMATION COINCIDES WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AND OVER A REGION THAT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE MONTH OF JUNE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W S OF 13N WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 68W TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 72W WED
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.


lookxs like things will be getting intresting soon we just might get 93l soon imo thanks xcool
TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED SINCE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BUT REMAINS
A THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF
13N TO THE COAST VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 72W/73W S OF
13N HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND HAS BEEN
DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

Quoting Levi32:
This should bring joy to some hearts.

The 12z Canadian ensemble mean keeps the low in the NW Caribbean through the beginning of next week. The Day 9 mean plot of all the ensemble members shows a lot of low positions (red numbers) in the vicinity of south Florida, which would mean rain. It's also noteworthy since it goes against the GFS ensembles here.



so it seems to be the CMC vs the GFS with the other models somewhat flipping around


but I have noticed that the GFS is flipping around some too, the most consistent models we have seen in terms of track are the CMC and UKMET; both of which have favored a more westward track
2058. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


so it seems to be the CMC vs the GFS with the other models somewhat flipping around


but I have noticed that the GFS is flipping around some too, the most consistent models we have seen in terms of track are the CMC and UKMET


The CMC has flipped the track a couple times I think, but you're right the UKMET has been rock solid.

12z 144 hours:

Quoting Levi32:


The CMC has flipped the track a couple times I think, but you're right the UKMET has been rock solid.

12z 144 hours:



and to me regardless of which forecast model it is, I tend to gravitate more towards ones that stay consistent


I think the CMC has flipped around more on intensity than it has on track.
Turning is evident on this satellite image. Also looks like some thunderstorms are trying to refire.
Levi32 where do you get that graphic for the UKMET? I used to be able to get it from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ but its been discontinued for quite a while now.
Quoting AllStar17:
Turning is evident on this satellite image. Also looks like some thunderstorms are trying to refire.


certainly does seem to be a bit more consolidated today than yesterday
??? where did the low go??
2064. xcool
May 30, 2011 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Wave moving over the island.
Comment
An Area of Low Pressure is developing over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica. This system is expected to bring an increase in rainfall activity in the coming days but especially as of Thursday.

24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Lingering showers across northernand southeastern parishes.
Tomorrow… Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy aftenoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the island.

3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed... Mostly cloudy day. Scattered afternoon showers over central and western parishes.
Thu/Fri… Cloudy. Periods of showers and thunderstorms over the island in the afternoon.

Regionally… There is an Area of Low Pressure over the southwestern Caribbean that is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms

rar

Link
2066. Levi32
Quoting Cantu5977:
Levi32 where do you get that graphic for the UKMET? I used to be able to get it from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ but its been discontinued for quite a while now.


You still can :P
Quoting Hurricanes101:


certainly does seem to be a bit more consolidated today than yesterday


that being said I am noticing some outflow boundaries over Nicaragua; tells me convection will likely wane over the next few hours
Quoting Levi32:


You still can :P


Maybe I'm blind as a bat but I don't see it lol..

I copied and paste the models just to make sure..

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfdl
gfs
hwrf
ngp
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that being said I am noticing some outflow boundaries over Nicaragua; tells me convection will likely wane over the next few hours
Yup. And we're probably going to continue to see these major fluctuations in convection until a surface circulation develops...which could take a while.
Hello everyone, pressures seem to be dropping by the San Andreas Islands. Currently at 1006 mb.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

VALID 12Z THU JUN 02 2011 - 12Z MON JUN 06 2011

...

AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE MIDWESTERN/MID SOUTH RIDGE...THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS
CONSIDERING THE
LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS NORTHWEST CAUSING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EARLY ON WITH A SUBSEQUENT SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED.
THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE OF FAIRLY LARGE SIZE PER THE
GUIDANCE. THE POINTS FOR THIS LOW WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT
17Z.


ROTH


2072. Levi32
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Hello everyone, pressures seem to be dropping by the San Andreas Islands. Currently at 1006 mb.


Good catch, hadn't checked that in a while. Winds have also become considerably lighter from 4 hours ago, and are now variable. That's very interesting as well.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. And we're probably going to continue to see these major fluctuations in convection until a surface circulation develops...which could take a while.


but I do think this is better organized than yesterday, but not much lol
2074. xcool
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011053006/


go here-Cantu5977
2075. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but I do think this is better organized than yesterday, but not much lol


Well, relatively speaking it's a whole lot better than yesterday because there's actually a focused point of surface convergence and possibly low pressure. Absolutely speaking, it's still not in a great position for further development and won't be for a while, but it will of course be intriguing to see how far it gets before the wind shear says enough's enough.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. And we're probably going to continue to see these major fluctuations in convection until a surface circulation develops...which could take a while.


I agree, the current convection is definitely prone to fluctuations in intensity.
2077. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011053006/


go here-Cantu5977


Here's a better link, a permanent one to the current MSLP animation
2078. xcool
;
2079. xcool
.
2080. xcool
/
TORNADO WARNING
NEC149-302200-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0003.110530T2128Z-110530T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
428 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ROCK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TWIN LAKES STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF BASSETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PONY LAKE AROUND 440 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 9926 4234 9925 4216 9945 4228 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 222DEG 33KT 4230 9944

$$

POWER

no Low yet but should be there by 2mrrow
2084. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
here mm5 forecast models


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/


They were discontinued in 2009 it appears.
Thank you very much Levi and xcool!
2086. xcool
Levi32 opps mybad.
you can get the updated and recontinued Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but I do think this is better organized than yesterday, but not much lol
Lol, it's trying. But from the start we knew that this system was going to take it's sweet time. Patience meter is running low though, lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, it's trying. But from the start we knew that this system was going to take it's sweet time. Patience meter is running low though, lol.


Oh well, if it's not this one then there will be plenty of other opportunities.
2090. Levi32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
you can get the updated and recontinued Link


Thanks.
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh well, if it's not this one then there will be plenty of other opportunities.
I'm sure, but Florida, as well as much of the Caribbean, need the rain. Badly. Lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm sure, but Florida, as well as much of the Caribbean, need the rain. Badly. Lol.
Ok Miami, don't be trying to hog the rain. Here in South Central Texas we have had like No rain the past 9 months, send some our way. :)
2093. Levi32
At 120 hours it doesn't look like the 18z GFS is going to string it out to the northeast this time.

2094. xcool
wunderkidcayman:
thanks
One thing to remember with these tropical systems or really all weather in general, thuderstorms never "try" to form or rain doesn't "try" to develop - there is no human characteristic to weather, its not alive. The system we are watching in Caribbean is not biased whether to develop or not. It is simply reacting to the fluid atmosphere around it. Just something I was taught early in my meteorological career.
strongest convection so far in w. carib
2097. beell
Any pressure falls at or around this time may be one of the two daily pressure minima (diurnal). Usually around 4AM/4PM local



Pressure @ 42057



Wind Direction @ 42057
click above grapics to open in new window


NDBC - Western Caribbean
2098. Levi32
It's in the NW Caribbean by Day 7, but these last couple runs of the GFS have been collapsing the upper-level high by the time it gets there, increasing the wind shear over it at this point significantly.



2099. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Any pressure falls at or around this time may be one of the two daily pressure minima (diurnal). Usually around 4AM/4PM local



Pressure @ 42057



Wind Direction @ 42057
click above grapics to open in new window


NDBC - Western Caribbean


That's why you compare it to the previous minimum. San Andres is showing a slightly lower pressure this period.
2100. JRRP
2101. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:
One thing to remember with these tropical systems or really all weather in general, thuderstorms never "try" to form or rain doesn't "try" to develop - there is no human characteristic to weather, its not alive. The system we are watching in Caribbean is not biased whether to develop or not. It is simply reacting to the fluid atmosphere around it. Just something I was taught early in my meteorological career.


Actually, I doubt anybody really believes that? Lol.

It's easy to personify tropical systems because it helps to explain a lot of concepts in ways that are easy to understand. When I say a tropical depression hugging the SE US coast is "trying to get to the water," I mean that it is meteorologically attracted to the water because that is where the upward motion is, and that is where the center of lowest pressure will try to develop at.
Evening everybody,
It is fascinating for me to watch how you tap around whats going to happen with a possible storm forming and as Chucktown said they don't decide to form, they form!Thanks.

Heres a bit of a slight diversion. From the BBC Dated 30 May 2011:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-135 95174

Its to do with carbon emissions records. A quote is below:-
''At a meeting last year in Cancun, Mexico, world leaders agreed that deep cuts were needed to limit the rise in global temperature to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

But according to the IEA's estimate, worldwide CO2 emissions from the energy sector reached a record 30.6 gigatonnes in 2010.

The IEA's Fatih Birol said the finding was "another wake-up call".

"The world has edged incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 if the 2C target is to be attained," he added.

Just a note but ''probably,''going to cause a lot of problems in the worlds future?

2103. beell
Photobucket

2045Z
2104. beell
Quoting Levi32:


That's why you compare it to the previous minimum. San Andres is showing a slightly lower pressure this period.


For this buoy, it has not-yet.
2105. Levi32
18z GFS does take it ENE eventually, after peaking at about 1005mb over Cuba.

Quoting beell:


For this buoy, it has not.
That buoy is quite a distance from San Andreas.
2107. alfabob
Quoting Chucktown:
One thing to remember with these tropical systems or really all weather in general, thuderstorms never "try" to form or rain doesn't "try" to develop - there is no human characteristic to weather, its not alive. The system we are watching in Caribbean is not biased whether to develop or not. It is simply reacting to the fluid atmosphere around it. Just something I was taught early in my meteorological career.

Well if you want to think about things in terms of physics, everything is deterministic; maybe to a point beyond what most could comprehend. So using the word "try" in a deterministic perspective (fluid dynamics) doesn't really make sense, or in any realistically. On the other-hand you could look at it from the perspective of how we understand "trying", as in it is "trying" to release energy; same thing either way.
Quoting Levi32:


Actually, I doubt anybody really believes that? Wow lol.

It's easy to personify tropical systems because it helps to explain a lot of concepts in ways that are easy to understand. When I say a tropical depression hugging the SE US coast is "trying to get to the water," I mean that it is meteorologically attracted to the water because that is where the upward motion is, and that is where the center of lowest pressure will try to develop at.
We are genetically programmed to think in terms of something "wanting" something else, it's very hard NOT to use that kind of language.
2109. beell
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That buoy is quite a distance from San Andreas.


True, about 300 miles. May come in handy later on. Use it or don't!
2110. Levi32
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
We are genetically programmed to think in terms of something "wanting" something else, it's very hard NOT to use that kind of language.


In my opinion it has no negative effects whatsoever. Humans understand things well with that kind of language. It applies well to meteorology.
Quoting Levi32:


Actually, I doubt anybody really believes that? Lol.

It's easy to personify tropical systems because it helps to explain a lot of concepts in ways that are easy to understand. When I say a tropical depression hugging the SE US coast is "trying to get to the water," I mean that it is meteorologically attracted to the water because that is where the upward motion is, and that is where the center of lowest pressure will try to develop at.


I like that term, meteorologically attracted. Its just that a lot of folks think that any given system can sense where the 80 degree isotherm is or maybe position itself to another location just because the atmospheric conditions may be better for it to further develop. Last year's Bonnnie was a perfect example of this when everyone thought it was going to explode once it got into the Gulf, but just the opposite happened. There is always a cause and effect when it come to weather.
Well, looks like the warm front has gone through, it suddenly warmed up by 12F to 86F and the dew point is 72F, ICK. For some reason the local Co-op observer's station is giving a dew point of 82F, but I don't think that's possible, all the other stations around here are giving a DP of just over 70F.
Levi-

Could you provide me the link(s) where you get your model runs for the tropiics? I would greatly appreciate it!
T-Storms starting to fire up in SD and NE.

The area in the SW Caribbean looks better now than what it did yesterday...slowly organizing IMO.
Quoting weatherman566:
Levi-

Could you provide me the link(s) where you get your model runs for the tropiics? I would greatly appreciate it!
I've wondered, too, I'd especially like to know where to find the European model.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Ok Miami, don't be trying to hog the rain. Here in South Central Texas we have had like No rain the past 9 months, send some our way. :)
Hopefully the whole western hemisphere gets rain. That should solve our drought problems, lol.
2119. Levi32
Quoting weatherman566:
Levi-

Could you provide me the link(s) where you get your model runs for the tropiics? I would greatly appreciate it!


The ones I was just posting come from here

Others can be found here
2120. Levi32
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
I've wondered, too, I'd especially like to know where to find the European model.


One

Two

Three
tropical wave still holding it t.storm lets see what happern tonight
Quoting Levi32:


In my opinion it has no negative effects whatsoever. Humans understand things well with that kind of language. It applies well to meteorology.


and contrary to popular belief on this blog; thinking a storm is going to develop is not "wish-casting". Also if someone happens to be "wish-casting", it has absolutely no impact on what the storm may or may not do lol
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


Dude please stop, seriously.
Quoting Levi32:


One

Two

Three


Thanks, Levi!
Very gradual development so far.
Thank you so much Levi. I greatly appreciate it. I had links to model runs before, but they seem to no longer exist. Plus, I have a new computer and I lost a good bit of the links I had on my previous one.
Quoting sunlinepr:


That satellite image is so cool, with the city lights, I have to know where everyone is getting that stuff. It's so fascinating!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. And we're probably going to continue to see these major fluctuations in convection until a surface circulation develops...which could take a while.


I have noticed it takes quite a while for June storms to develop, take Alex last year (93L)for example. But when august and september comes around, they can form in the blink of an eye.
I question how long this convection blow-up can sustain itself.
Nebraska:

Photobucket
I am really impressed at how it has organized since yesterday, now some circulation is evident. This thing could be well on it's way to TD 1 by the end of this week, but knowing June storms, they do take their time to develop, so I think it will be a gradual development, and it has been that way so far.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I have noticed it takes quite a while for June storms to develop, take Alex last year (93L)for example. But when august and september comes around, they can form in the blink of an eye.
One of the reasons Alex took so long to develop, just like this one, was the monsoonal nature of the development. In this case, yes this system has monsoonal origins, but upper-level winds are far more unfavorable this time around as opposed to Alex (if I remember correctly). I could be wrong however.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
One of the reasons Alex took so long to develop, just like this one, was the monsoonal nature of the development. In this case, yes this system has monsoonal origins, but upper-level winds are far more unfavorable this time around as opposed to Alex (if I remember correctly). I could be wrong however.


Pre-Alex fluctuated a lot as far as organization goes.
And I think it took like 2 weeks for Alex to develop.
Heading to the Middle Keys end of the week, I do hope this thing is a non event. I know we need the rain in Florida, but I need a vacation.
If this storm develops I think it could very well be similar to Tropical Depression One of 1990; Just a little rainmaker (which is good for Florida).
2137. bappit
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and contrary to popular belief on this blog; thinking a storm is going to develop is not "wish-casting". Also if someone happens to be "wish-casting", it has absolutely no impact on what the storm may or may not do lol

I think it depends on what you get out of it. What does Harold Camping get out of predicting the end of the world?
Quoting sugarsand:
Heading to the Middle Keys end of the week, I do hope this thing is a non event. I know we need the rain in Florida, but I need a vacation.

Speaking selfishly, we need the rain more than you need a vacation. But I know what you mean. ;-)
Quoting bappit:

I think it depends on what you get out of it. What does Harold Camping get out of predicting the end of the world?


Money.
no low on this map!! i do not see any tropical wave and tropical lows on this map
so still no 93L eh? just joking, don't expect that till late tomorrow or Wednesday...
2144. Bitmap7
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
no low on this map!! i do not see any tropical wave and tropical lows on this map


It wants to keep it a broad low a bit longer. I have seen the ECMWF do this often last year as the time for development gets closer it begins to back off on intensity. We are still left in the dark with this as the models are once again flopping all over the place.
latest of what's left of songda


can someone give me the link for the surface map...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Speaking selfishly, we need the rain more than you need a vacation. But I know what you mean. ;-)


How about rain at night, and sunshine during the day? That's a compromise.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Dude please stop, seriously.
If it bothers you so put him on ignore.
2149. help4u
Anyone that say's this or that will end the world,all get the same thing! Big MONEY!!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
If it bothers you so put him on ignore.


I have like 5 or 6 jasons in my ignore list.
2151. bappit
I suspect Harold Camping found the response to his predictions gratifying in other than monetary ways. At his age I'm not sure what good the money is anyway.
Quoting bappit:
I suspect Harold Camping found the response to his predictions gratifying in other than monetary ways. At his age I'm not sure what good the money is anyway.


LOL!
2154. emcf30
2 Tornadoes on the ground Holt County Neb.
Quoting Chucktown:
One thing to remember with these tropical systems or really all weather in general, thuderstorms never "try" to form or rain doesn't "try" to develop - there is no human characteristic to weather, its not alive. The system we are watching in Caribbean is not biased whether to develop or not. It is simply reacting to the fluid atmosphere around it. Just something I was taught early in my meteorological career.


Your comment is a very interesting subject and it can be analysed in many directions. This is the way I relate it... For decades, superpowers have made experiments involving "weather manipulation", like in Vietnam, the Caribbean. Russians and Chinese have also experimented. I find that subject quite interesting, although many of those studies are classified...
Good evening

The TUTT that runs from the ULL near 30N 50W to the ULL near 25N and 80W is a killer for anything trying to develop in the Caribbean right now. You can see it by running this WV Loop and selecting both the lat. and long. as well as the high level winds by checking the relevant boxes.

The ULL over the Northern Bahamas/S. Fla is retrograding to the West and this is allowing the moisture to lift farther N in the NW Caribbean, albeit slowly. This lifting of the moisture must precede the slackening of the shear. Once the moisture stream makes it NW to the Yucatan channel there will be a better chance for development as this should coincide with a significant drop in shear in the SW Caribbean. Probably another 24 hours IMO.
2157. emcf30
This would hurt

2217 400 3 ESE ATKINSON HOLT NE 4252 9892 NEARLY GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL SIZE MEASURED BY STORM CHASER. ACTUAL DIAMETER OF STONE WAS 3.5 INCHES. (LBF)
Thinking on:- 2155. sunlinepr

Maybe substituting 'Trying, to Form,' with 'Tending to Form,' Might be a better way the general public could understand what is going on.

Interesting to think of the kind of power needed to humanly change a weather system, or maybe it could be as simple as the little rudder moving a big ship if done in the right way?
2160. xcool
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAVE FORMERLY CARRIED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH. IT HAS BEEN TRACKED BACK TO WEST AFRICA...AND IS
NOW APPROACHING TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

Quoting PlazaRed:
Thinking on:- 2155. sunlinepr

Maybe substituting 'Trying, to Form,' with 'Tending to Form,' Might be a better way the general public could understand what is going on.

Interesting to think of the kind of power needed to humanly change a weather system, or maybe it could be as simple as the little rudder moving a big ship if done in the right way?


Very interesting your point.. "the kind of power needed to humanly change a weather system". The only way we could humanly do it, it to interact, seed or affect, ahead of time, what would become a major system in the future, hoping to acquire the desired results. That's what the US made in Vietnam in the Ho Chi Minh trail, seeding with Silver Iodide the clouds...

"Project Popeye was an attempt to indefinitely extend the rainy monsoon weather over southeastern Laos by cloud seeding. Testing on the project began in September above the Kong River watershed that ran through the Steel Tiger and Tiger Hound areas. Clouds were seeded by air with silver iodide smoke and then activated by launching a fuse fired from a flare pistol. 56 tests were conducted by October and 85 percent were judged to be successful. President Johnson then gave authorization for the program, which lasted until July 1972".
72 Dbz at 18000 feet. You know that's producing some good sized hail:

Photobucket

WWUS53 KFSD 310010
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
710 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

SDC009-023-043-067-310045-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-110531T0045Z/
HUTCHINSON SD-DOUGLAS SD-CHARLES MIX SD-BON HOMME SD-
710 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BON HOMME...
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLES MIX...EASTERN DOUGLAS AND WESTERN HUTCHINSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 710 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED...
PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORSICA TO DANTE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
AVON AND DELMONT AROUND 715 PM CDT...
TYNDALL...TRIPP...SPRINGFIELD AND PARKSTON AROUND 725 PM CDT...
TABOR AND SCOTLAND AROUND 740 PM CDT...
CLAYTON AROUND 745 PM CDT...

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS STORM IS HEADING DIRECTLY TOWARDS
DELMONT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
OLIVET.
I don't know how to post an active link but this FSU Met page updates the latest runs of most of the major models

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfdl
gfs
hwrf
ngp


on one nice page to access:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
On the 'messing with weather {front} so to speak/think.

I would hazard a guess that sunlight shielding, if it could be achieved would be a good track to go down, a bit difficult to imagine how but you don't need much fog or smoke to block out a lot of light/heat and so might be able to cause a system to be 'steered.'

Chemical seeding is difficult and expensive large scale.
Uganda~ About 40 houses had their roofs blown off and hundreds of acres of crops destroyed when a hailstorm hit Namutumba District. The two-hour hailstorm on Thursday hit 20 villages including Isegero A and B, Ndikitwamaila, Namukoge, Busene, Nabikenge, Bakudumira, Nawampiti, Kibaale and Kivule. Domestic animals and birds were also killed. Eight hours after the downpour, ice blocks were still visible on the ground. In Nsinze Sub-county, several plantations under the Naads programme were destroyed. Mr Richard Kayingo, the sub-county NAADS coordinator, while touring the plantations, said the government should provide relief aid, including seeds, to farmers. “This is horrible. It is a total destruction and there is no hope for farmers to have any harvest this season,” he said. Most of the crops were left with two months to mature but farmers’ hope of a fruitful harvest has been dashed.“We have nothing to do right now. We don’t have seeds. The affected families should be given food aid for three months as they wait for the new season,” Mr Kayingo said. Residents have also appealed to non-governmental organisations to come to their aid. ‘No mangoes for lunch’ "My family has been depending on mangoes for lunch and breakfast. We have been eating food only at supper. But now that the hailstorms have destroyed the mangoes, I don’t know how my family of 15 will survive,” said Moses Nabongo of Isegero village. The area councillor, Mr George Damba, asked government to provide temporary shelter to the affected families. The Chief Administrative Officer, Mr David Kawoya, said he has set up a team to assess the magnitude of the damage. “I have set up a team led by the district agriculture officer to establish the actual number of people affected and the acreage of the plantations destroyed so that we forward the report to the ministry of disaster preparedness for redress,” he said. Two people sustained serious injuries when a building collapsed on them during the downpour and were admitted to Nsinze Health Centre IV.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

The TUTT that runs from the ULL near 30N 50W to the ULL near 25N and 80W is a killer for anything trying to develop in the Caribbean right now. You can see it by running this WV Loop and selecting both the lat. and long. as well as the high level winds by checking the relevant boxes.

The ULL over the Northern Bahamas/S. Fla is retrograding to the West and this is allowing the moisture to lift farther N in the NW Caribbean, albeit slowly. This lifting of the moisture must precede the slackening of the shear. Once the moisture stream makes it NW to the Yucatan channel there will be a better chance for development as this should coincide with a significant drop in shear in the SW Caribbean. Probably another 24 hours IMO.


almost as bad as lawyer talk!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I don't know how to post an active link but this FSU Met page updates the latest runs of most of the major models

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfdl
gfs
hwrf
ngp


on one nice page to access:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
to create an active link simply click the "link" button just above the text box you write the post in and insert the link you want into the pop up that shows up.

Also, the link you posted has ukmet model runs as well, however they're not located directly on the site. To access the ukmet model runs you have to add "ukm" to the end of the url as shown below

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm

Here's the active Link
2169. xcool
Quoting sunlinepr:


Your comment is a very interesting subject and it can be analysed in many directions. This is the way I relate it... For decades, superpowers have made experiments involving "weather manipulation", like in Vietnam, the Caribbean. Russians and Chinese have also experimented. I find that subject quite interesting, although many of those studies are classified...
I predict that one day man WILL be able to control the weather. Once we understand and master gravity at a level similar to our mastery of the electromagnetic force, we will be able to move around weather systems at will.Ongoing research at CERN will unlock these secrets in the near future. We may choose to use this knowledge to develop StarSaucers to discover and populate worlds with climates that might provide for a Utopian existence. Hopefully we will not abandon Earth, but like an inner city with its problems I feel we will choose to expand out to the suburbs and neglect Earth until future generations "rediscover" it. Irregardless we will not be held hostage to weather and climate as we are today.
2171. xcool
- Theodosia Pickering Garrison


A handful of old men walking down the village street
In worn, brushed uniforms, their gray heads high;
A faded flag above them, one drum to lift their feet-
Look again, O heart of mine, and see what passes by!

There's a vast crowd swaying, there's a wild band playing,
The streets are full of marching men, or tramping cavalry.
Alive and young and straight again, they ride to greet a mate again-
The gallant souls, the great souls that live eternally!

A handful of old men walking down the highways?
Nay, we look on heroes that march among their peers,
The great, glad Companions have swung from heaven's byways
And come to join their own again across the dusty years.

There are strong hands meeting, there are staunch hearts greeting-
A crying of remembered names, of deeds that shall not die.
A handful of old men?-Nay, my heart, look well again;
The spirit of America today is marching by!


Thank you Veterans, past, present and future!!
2173. xcool
HPC Final Update:

AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE MIDWESTERN/MID SOUTH RIDGE...THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS NORTHWEST CAUSING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EARLY ON WITH A SUBSEQUENT SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED.
THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE OF FAIRLY LARGE SIZE PER THE
GUIDANCE. THE POINTS FOR THIS LOW WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT
17Z.
China's Weather Manipulation Brings Crippling Snowstorm to Beijing By Clay Dillow Posted 11.11.2009 at 7:08 pm

In The People's Republic of China, it's no secret that the Party controls just about everything. But as Beijing suffers through its second major snowstorm this season, residents are growing weary of their leadership's control-freak tendencies. After all, while the storm came as a surprise to residents, the government knew about it all along. In fact, the government caused it.

China has long tinkered with Mother Nature's waterworks, even establishing a state organ -- the Beijing Weather Modification Office -- whose sole purpose is to meddle with the weather. The purpose behind weather modification is less megalomaniacal than it sounds at first pass; a large swath of northeast China, including Beijing, has been mired in a drought for nearly a decade, and the party leadership would like to reverse that trend for both practical reasons and to show the Chinese people exactly who is in charge.

To do so, they've turned to cloud seeding, a controversial practice that involves launching (or dropping) chemicals into the atmosphere -- silver iodide in China, though dry ice and liquid propane also work -- that cause water vapor in the air to crystallize at temperatures it otherwise would not. Its effectiveness is dubious; while it's generally accepted that it works to some degree, it can only increase precipitation by 20 percent. Sometimes....

.

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-11/chi nas-weather-manipulation-brings-crippling-snowstor m-beijing



Now, can we Imagine, if this is a technique that was used in the 1960's, what will be the Actual experiment?
2168. TomTaylor 8:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2011

Thank You TT......
2176. Bitmap7
I think we are on the verge of getting an invest.....



In the WPAC
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
2168. TomTaylor 8:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2011

Thank You TT......
no problem
The main problem I see in tampering with the weather systems to create rain/snow is that there has to be moisture there in the first place.

I think steering systems is the first concern that has to be overcome and by altering the surface/air temperature this can possibly affect the natural directions of the moist systems.

As far as I can grasp from some of you learned persons this is what the atmosphere does naturally, until possibly recently with the introduction of 'pollution factor.'
2181. Bitmap7


2182. Bitmap7
Quoting Bitmap7:



Quoting sunlinepr:
China's Weather Manipulation Brings Crippling Snowstorm to Beijing By Clay Dillow Posted 11.11.2009 at 7:08 pm

In The People's Republic of China, it's no secret that the Party controls just about everything. But as Beijing suffers through its second major snowstorm this season, residents are growing weary of their leadership's control-freak tendencies. After all, while the storm came as a surprise to residents, the government knew about it all along. In fact, the government caused it.

China has long tinkered with Mother Nature's waterworks, even establishing a state organ -- the Beijing Weather Modification Office -- whose sole purpose is to meddle with the weather. The purpose behind weather modification is less megalomaniacal than it sounds at first pass; a large swath of northeast China, including Beijing, has been mired in a drought for nearly a decade, and the party leadership would like to reverse that trend for both practical reasons and to show the Chinese people exactly who is in charge.

To do so, they've turned to cloud seeding, a controversial practice that involves launching (or dropping) chemicals into the atmosphere -- silver iodide in China, though dry ice and liquid propane also work -- that cause water vapor in the air to crystallize at temperatures it otherwise would not. Its effectiveness is dubious; while it's generally accepted that it works to some degree, it can only increase precipitation by 20 percent. Sometimes....

.

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-11/chi nas-weather-manipulation-brings-crippling-snowstor m-beijing



Now, can we Imagine, if this is a technique that was used in the 1960's, what will be the Actual experiment?
I commend and encourage the Chinese to continue their experiments. They may fail at first, but will unlock the secrets of meteromanipulation some day.
Ah crap, we're gonna get nailed!

Quoting FrankZapper:
I commend and encourage the Chinese to continue their experiments. They may fail at first, but will unlock the secrets of meteromanipulation some day.


Not a good idea though
Quoting FrankZapper:
I commend and encourage the Chinese to continue their experiments. They may fail at first, but will unlock the secrets of meteromanipulation some day.


I would hate for this to succeed to be honest, mother nature would react in a way none of us has seen before if you try this and succeed.

With the shape this world is in, countries would use this to send bad weather to other countries; it would also ruin the profession of meteorology altogether IMO. If man could completely control the weather, would there really be need for a job where someone tells you what is forecast?

Not to mention that failures can cost lives.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would hate for this to succeed to be honest

With the shape this world is in, countries would use this to send bad weather to other countries; it would also ruin the profession of meteorology altogether IMO. If man could completely control the weather, would there really be need for a job where someone tells you what is forecast?
agreed.
2188. Bitmap7
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would hate for this to succeed to be honest

With the shape this world is in, countries would use this to send bad weather to other countries; it would also ruin the profession of meteorology altogether IMO. If man could completely control the weather, would there really be need for a job where someone tells you what is forecast?


Think of what the accumulation of those chemicals in the atmosphere could do. The effect it will have on health, the ozone layer and what if it begins to change the global climate on a whole. We could find ourselves with intense droughts.
Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.


we already have an example of it coming back to bite us, remember that storm in the 60s that was going out to sea? They decided to go and seed it; what happened?

It didn't weaken the storm and the storm took a sharp turn back towards land.


In a world where we truly do not understand all that is involved in creating weather; trying to alter is a very dangerous idea.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would hate for this to succeed to be honest

With the shape this world is in, countries would use this to send bad weather to other countries; it would also ruin the profession of meteorology altogether IMO. If man could completely control the weather, would there really be need for a job where someone tells you what is forecast?

Not to mention that failures can cost lives.


True, it's a bad idea... But the quest for weather control began long ago and it is a MUST for every superpower to sustain a weather manipulation program as part of their national defense system....
2191. wpb
great day in se fla. however rain is lacking and lake o is near the danger level. rainy season please begin.models are making us wait though............
Quoting emcf30:
This would hurt

2217 400 3 ESE ATKINSON HOLT NE 4252 9892 NEARLY GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL SIZE MEASURED BY STORM CHASER. ACTUAL DIAMETER OF STONE WAS 3.5 INCHES. (LBF)
that is a bad storm
Quoting sunlinepr:


True, it's a bad idea... But the quest for weather control began long ago and it is a MUST for every superpower to sustain a weather manipulation program as part of their national defense system....


maybe countries should stop focusing on how to control the weather and start protecting themselves form other countries.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would hate for this to succeed to be honest

With the shape this world is in, countries would use this to send bad weather to other countries; it would also ruin the profession of meteorology altogether IMO. If man could completely control the weather, would there really be need for a job where someone tells you what is forecast?
Of course the UN would have to establish an "Office of Meteoromanipulation" where Meteorology Ambassadors from each country would debate the actions of each country and pass out sanctions if for instance Cuba sent a hurricane to the USA.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


maybe countries should stop focusing on how to control the weather and start protecting themselves form other countries.
trust me, they do.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Of course the UN would have to establish an "Office of Meteoromanipulation" where Meteorology Ambassadors from each country would debate the actions of each country and pass out sanctions if for instance Cuba sent a hurricane to the USA.


Sounds like a stupid Sci-Fi movie; the idea sound so far-fetched and stupid

Again you mess with mother nature, she will bite you back
2197. Bitmap7
And in SPACE Weather

"There is a very active area on the sun as rotated onto the invisible solar disc. This active area has got the potential for more flaring for the next five to six days," space weather forecaster Kobus Olckers of the Space Weather Warning Centre at the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory told News24.

He said that communications and electronic systems might be affected.

"The internet could be a little slower for the next week or so and especially long distance communications."
That active area isn't in a geo-effective position at the moment. It will be in an active area in about five to six days from now," said Olckers.

"We will keep you posted and see how it develops. It's rapidly developing at the moment but it can get into a non-threatening format over the next few days," he added.

He said that people need not take any special precautions.

"The levels of X-rays aren't enough to really affect biological systems. This time around its technological systems."


Link




Quoting TomTaylor:
trust me, they do.


I know but look how much money is spent on projects like this, that could be used elsewhere
anyway back to the tropics; as I said before I think we will have another invest in the WPAC soon
I suppose at the end of the day the powers that be could justify the next bout of hostilities by stating that,Meteoromanipulation had stolen their rain or in fact sunshine and demand compensation.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I know but look how much money is spent on projects like this, that could be used elsewhere


Like in my bank account. lol! j/k
The site to watch is the one that announces new invests are up.So far,no 93L tonight.

Link
Quoting Hurrykane:


Like in my bank account. lol!


LOL
Quoting PlazaRed:
I suppose at the end of the day the powers that be could justify the next bout of hostilities by stating that,Meteoromanipulation had stolen their rain or in fact sunshine and demand compensation.


To me that would be the only benefit; drought areas could be given rain for relief and vice versa


I just hate the idea of messing with mother nature; she is already going crazy as it is.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


we already have an example of it coming back to bite us, remember that storm in the 60s that was going out to sea? They decided to go and seed it; what happened?

It didn't weaken the storm and the storm took a sharp turn back towards land.


In a world where we truly do not understand all that is involved in creating weather; trying to alter is a very dangerous idea.


Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane!
Quoting sunlinepr:


True, it's a bad idea... But the quest for weather control began long ago and it is a MUST for every superpower to sustain a weather manipulation program as part of their national defense system....
Imagine if for instance we could send a Task Force off the coast of North Korea or Iran and cook up and send a severe tropical system their way.
Quoting wpb:
great day in se fla. however rain is lacking and lake o is near the danger level. rainy season please begin.models are making us wait though............

The models are going to make it rain??????
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Sounds like a stupid Sci-Fi movie; the idea sound so far-fetched and stupid

Again you mess with mother nature, she will bite you back
Have you seen the movie "Dr Strangelove""? Weird things were going on there.
That storm in the lower Caribbean is starting to look a bit agitated, bet it get out of hand soon.

Wish I could sit up all night and watch you guys debating but its 2.30 in Europe now so thanks and good night.
2212. Bitmap7
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane!


Actually, it may not have been coincidental. Back in the day, seeding a hurricane caused the eye diameter to grow, which should have weakened it. I think there were a few that did...however, it's just like a hurricane doing an eyewall replacement cycle...you weaken it, it gets steered lower in the atmosphere for a while...then, once the eye shrinks again, the cane can be even stronger than before the seeding. Again, different steering level.
Quoting sunlinepr:

There's a lot of activity out there tonight, however nothing to organized right now. But there is a huge wave that came off the coast of senegal, i know it;s to early, but it's impressive.
Link
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane!


A hurricane in 1947, turned back to the coast and hit Savannah; they claim it had already started turning towards land when they seeded, but the seeding did not do much anyway
Quoting Hurrykane:


Actually, it may not have been coincidental. Back in the day, seeding a hurricane caused the eye diameter to grow, which should have weakened it. I think there were a few that did...however, it's just like a hurricane doing an eyewall replacement cycle...you weaken it, it gets steered lower in the atmosphere for a while...then, once the eye shrinks again, the cane can be even stronger than before the seeding. Again, different steering level.


exactly when you mess with the strength of a storm you are also affecting what ends up steering it.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


A hurricane in 1947, turned back to the coast and hit Savannah; they claim it had already started turning towards land when they seeded, but the seeding did not do much anyway


Those were the first experiments... around the 1940's
Looks like they learned that you can only control it, by seeding (when it is embrionic) before it develops into an uncontrollable system...
And seems like they got good results if you consider the 85% effectiveness in Vietnam....
And China learned it too...

Quoting PRweathercenter:

There's a lot of activity out there tonight, however nothing to organized right now. But there is a huge wave that came off the coast of senegal, i know it;s to early, but it's impressive.
Link


That gif can be posted directly here... That's a good bookmark to post from time to time here...

Quoting sunlinepr:


Those like those were the first experiments... 1947
And seems like they got good results if you consider the 85% effectiveness in Vietnam....
I'm not familiar with the Vietnam Mateoromanipulation experiment. Exactly what happened there? I assume you're not talking about Agent Orange.
This may have been discussed earlier (I didn't read 2200 posts) but reading Dr. Masters calling for more money for better tornado warning I was thinking that what would I do if I got more warning? Start looking out the window sooner? I think if we want to make ourselves safer we need to consider things like where is a safe place to go? Friends of ours near Oklahoma City have a storm cellar that will hold about six with some comfort. That sounds like a seriously good idea to me. I can evacuate from a hurricane, however running from a tornado seems like one of those questions of "what direction do I run?" It appears to me that most of the tools you need to be safe are in place, we just need to use them rather than spend another zillion dollars on more predictive tools that really don't make people any safer.

Just some thoughts on a holiday night.
Quoting zoomiami:


almost as bad as lawyer talk!


I resemble that remark :-)
2222. SBKaren
Hey Dr. Masters....saw you on the PBS News Hour! Well done!
Quoting FrankZapper:
I'm not familiar with the Vietnam Mateoromanipulation experiment. Exactly what happened there? I assume you're not talking about Agent Orange.


There are a lot of links about weather manipulation... It is a fact...
But... there is fiction and exageration in it... You will find many conspiracy theory fanatics behind it... So if you want to make a serious, scientific study of it, you have to filter the good from the bad... and look for info. available...

Link

Link

what we've been talking here is about the seeding of clouds with Silver Iodide, experiments made by the US during WWII...
Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low



Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet )



Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now.
by the way been a long time from the last time we saw this




Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405






RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SIOUX CITY IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...WW 403...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED N/S ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD AS IT MOVES EWD. VERY STRONG PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET IS DRIVING THE LINE EWD WITH THE FORCING FROM
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDING
BOTH SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR VERY
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT
DAMAGING WINDS NOW ARE THE DOMINANT THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23040.
2226. Bitmap7
Quoting kmanislander:
Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low



Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet )



Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now.



Shear has been falling in some places but over the past few hours has began increasing over our blob. Shear is on the decrease at our new low center and the convection seems to be migrating there now.
Quoting twincomanche:
This may have been discussed earlier (I didn't read 2200 posts) but reading Dr. Masters calling for more money for better tornado warning I was thinking that what would I do if I got more warning? Start looking out the window sooner? I think if we want to make ourselves safer we need to consider things like where is a safe place to go? Friends of ours near Oklahoma City have a storm cellar that will hold about six with some comfort. That sounds like a seriously good idea to me. I can evacuate from a hurricane, however running from a tornado seems like one of those questions of "what direction do I run?" It appears to me that most of the tools you need to be safe are in place, we just need to use them rather than spend another zillion dollars on more predictive tools that really don't make people any safer.

Just some thoughts on a holiday night.
I agree much is already in place for tornado warnings, however much can still be done.

For one, better radar would allow or better prediction systems which would allow for increased forecasting skill. This should, in theory, give people more time to prepare and allow people to place more trust in tornado warnings rather than assuming its another false alarm (which not many people do, but there is certainly a decent number of folks who ignore the warnings), ultimately saving lives.

Sure, our nation is not in the best economic position to increase spending, but I do believe it is something to consider in the near future when we are in a better economic situation.
Quoting Bitmap7:



Shear has been falling in some places but over the past few hours has began increasing over our blob. Shear is on the decrease at our new low center and the convection seems to be migrating there now.


Yes but too close to the coast to really do anything. It has to get out over the open water and that is where the shear has gone up recently. Give it 24 hours for the ULL over the Bahamas to get into the GOM and then we will have a real chance of development. Until then the lows will come and go as they are beheaded by the shear aloft.
2229. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low



Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet )



Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now.


Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant.
Quoting pressureman:



With all the "Shear" right now the enviroment is very hostile..I don't think the NHC will even make this and ivest..I hope it moves towards florida so they can get some much needed rain..I really dont think we wil see our first system until sometime in july..IMO


Hello Stormtop.
Quoting Levi32:


Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant.


Yes, see post 2228
2232. Bitmap7
Quoting Levi32:


Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant.


2233. Levi32
Quoting Bitmap7:




That map isn't necessarily accurate either. Visible imagery doesn't lie. Satellite estimates of wind trying to peak beneath -60C clouds do. The inflow into that convection observed while the sun was up clearly indicates the focus-point of surface convergence. So did this morning's ASCAT.
Post 2232

The convergence on the coast will fade away when the low there fades. I don't think it can last in that area and may be the perennial low that comes off the Colombian highlands.
Shear won't start letting up until 48-72 hours from now.
Levi, will this develop, or not?



...by the way guys (*points at Taz*) I'm not the infamous troll known as "eye" throught the years so don't get the wrong conception.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree much is already in place for tornado warnings, however much can still be done....


If I lived in a tornado area i would invest in concrete shelter INSIDE the house:

Government can stimulate this by giving tax excemptions..

How to Build a Concrete Storm Shelter
By Heidi Braley, eHow Contributor
Link
Having a concrete storm shelter in the backyard is a safety must for anyone who lives in the tornado alley of the United States. The timing when the tornadoes will come is unpredictable but you can make an effort to be prepared. Your family's health and safety must be your top priority in the event of an emergency. Educating everyone in your home how to react in the case of a tornado warning is essential for survival as every second counts. This shelter is also a perfect emergency structure for hurricanes.

Also Link




There are many links around...
2238. brianc
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane!

It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury...
the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965
2239. Bitmap7
Quoting Levi32:


That map isn't necessarily accurate either. Visible imagery doesn't lie. Satellite estimates of wind trying to peak beneath -60C clouds do. The inflow into that convection observed while the sun was up clearly indicates the focus-point of surface convergence. So did this morning's ASCAT.


Agreed.

What are your estimates for the reduction of shear now? I am thinking 24-36hrs.
Quoting brianc:

It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury...
the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965


They never seeded Betsy; they had seedings scheduled but by then the storm had turned towards land; so they cancelled them
we have invest 91W now
We lost power here for about 30 minutes when a supercell came through, sounds like there's wind damage in places, no reports of a tornado, though.
2243. Levi32
Quoting Bitmap7:


Agreed.

What are your estimates for the reduction of shear now? I am thinking 24-36hrs.


I've been saying Thursday for any kind of significant progress when shear starts to really relax, and I still think that's a good estimate.
Quoting brianc:

It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury...
the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965


Link
Link
Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


There are a lot of links about weather manipulation... It is a fact...
But... there is fiction and exageration in it... You will find many conspiracy theory fanatics behind it... So if you want to make a serious, scientific study of it, you have to filter the good from the bad...

Link

Link
Like most things nowadays.
2246. Levi32
Quoting brianc:

It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury...
the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965


Lol there was a perfectly fine explanation for Betsy's turnaround. A blocking ridge planted itself squarely in her way, just like Jeanne in 2004.
Project Stormfury was a research program for hurricane modification that was active between 1962 and 1983. The Stormfury hypothesis was that seeding the first rain band outside of the eyewall clouds with silver iodide (AgI) would cause supercooled water to turn into ice. This would release heat, which would cause the clouds to grow faster, pulling in air that would otherwise reach the wall of clouds around the eye. The plan was to cut off the air supply feeding the original eye wall, which would cause it to fade away while a second, wider eye wall would grow further from out from the storm's center. Because the wall would be wider, air spiraling into the clouds would be slower. The partial conservation of angular momentum was intended to decrease the force of the strongest winds. At the same time the cloud seeding theory was being developed, a group at the Navy Weapons Center in California was developing new seeding generators that could release large amounts of silver iodide crystals into storms.

In 1961, the eye wall of Hurricane Esther was seeded with silver iodide. The hurricane stopped growing and showed signs of possible weakening. Hurricane Beulah was seeded in 1963, again with some encouraging results. Two hurricanes were then seeded with massive quantities of silver iodide. The first storm (Hurricane Debbie, 1969) weakened temporarily after being seeded five times. No significant effect was detected on the second storm (Hurricane Ginger, 1971). Later analysis of the 1969 storm suggested that the storm would have weakened with or without the seeding, as part of the normal eyewall replacement process.

Budget cuts and lack of definitive success led to the discontinuation of the hurricane seeding program. In the end, it was decided that funding would be better spent learning more about how hurricanes work and in finding ways to better prepare for and lessen the damage from natural storms. Even if it turned out cloud seeding or other artificial measures could lessen the intensity of the storms, there was considerable debate about where on their course the storms would be altered and concern over the ecological implications of changing the storms.

1966 photo of Personell

Quoting Levi32:


Lol there was a perfectly fine explanation for Betsy's turnaround. A blocking ridge planted itself squarely in her way, just like Jeanne in 2004.


Levi we got a duo of invests in the WPAC, not sure if you follow the storms over there
2249. Levi32
Quoting eyestalker:
Levi, will this develop, or not?



...by the way guys (*points at Taz*) I'm not the infamous troll known as "eye" throught the years so don't get the wrong conception.


Well, that's going to depend a whole lot on its initial track. The farther northeast it goes, the more likely it doesn't do anything. I'm leaning towards the idea that it takes its time leaving the Caribbean, northeast or not, and has an ok shot at gaining TD status, but whether it ever gets beyond that will depend entirely on its track, which is still up in the air. It will be hard to even get it to a TD too.
2250. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Levi we got a duo of invests in the WPAC, not sure if you follow the storms over there


When I'm bored, or when they get strong, lol.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree much is already in place for tornado warnings, however much can still be done.

For one, better radar would allow or better prediction systems which would allow for increased forecasting skill. This should, in theory, give people more time to prepare and allow people to place more trust in tornado warnings rather than assuming its another false alarm (which not many people do, but there is certainly a decent number of folks who ignore the warnings), ultimately saving lives.

Sure, our nation is not in the best economic position to increase spending, but I do believe it is something to consider in the near future when we are in a better economic situation.


This is a recording:"What we need is better education, what we need is better education, what we need.........."
Well you know. Stupid is as stupid does. I think someone said that.LOL
Quoting Levi32:


I've been saying Thursday for any kind of significant progress when shear starts to really relax, and I still think that's a good estimate.


3 days for the ULL over the Fla straits to get far enough out of the way ?
Quoting Levi32:


I've been saying Thursday for any kind of significant progress when shear starts to really relax, and I still think that's a good estimate.


Agreed, as the Bahamian upper low will have retrograded far enough west to change the upper flow from southwesterly to southerly at that point, along with some reduction of the speed.
2254. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


3 days for the ULL over the Fla straits to get far enough out of the way ?


It should be over the western gulf by then. The subtropical jet will already be making its biggest move. After that conditions won't change much.
More highly radioactive water at damaged Japanese nuclear plant

The operator of a damaged Japanese nuclear power station said highly radioactive water was inundating the basement of one of one of the reactor buildings at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, a news report said Tuesday.

Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) detected levels of 2 million becquerels of radioactive caesium per cubic centimetre of water in the basement of reactor 1. TEPCO suspects that radioactive materials from the melted fuel have leaked from the reactor's pressure vessel.

The large amounts of contaminated water have prevented TEPCO workers for restoring key cooling functions. Concerns are now rising as the increase in water accumulation coincides with the onset of the rainy season.
Since the plant was crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, it has leaked radioactive materials into the environment.

Rain showers that had started in the region Sunday caused the water levels in the turbine buildings of reactors 2 and 3 to rise at a faster pace of 3 to 4 millimeters per hour, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Article...
Quoting Levi32:


It should be over the western gulf by then. The subtropical jet will already be making its biggest move. After that conditions won't change much.


I think we will see the shear fall off before it gets all the way to the Western Gulf, possibly as soon as 24 hours from now but of course the low then has to start to get its act together.Being June that won't happen overnight even with fair conditions aloft.
1947 Hurricane Season - Hurricane 9

The hurricane was noted for the first time hurricane seeding was conducted in the Atlantic basin by the United States Weather Bureau through an operation called Project Cirrus. A B-17 dropped 180 pounds of dry ice onto the storm from 500 feet above its cloudtop after it had moved 350 miles off Jacksonville. Shortly afterward, the storm reversed course and headed for Savannah. The scientists conducting the experiment believed they had caused this change, but it was shown a 1906 hurricane had followed a similar pattern.[6]

Link

While out to sea in August of the 1965 Atlantic hurricane season, Stormfury meteorologists decided that Hurricane Betsy was a good candidate for seeding.[9] However, the storm immediately swung towards land, and on September 1, the planned flights were canceled. For some reason, the press was not notified that there were no seedings, and several newspapers reported that it had begun.[9] As Betsy passed close to the Bahamas and smashed into southern Florida, the public and Congress thought that seeding was underway and blamed Stormfury.[9] It took two months for Stormfury officials to convince Congress that Betsy was not seeded, and the project was allowed to continue.[9]
my town under a tornado warnings right now its very windy over my house winds up to 50 mph
2259. xcool
*oh*
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
my town under a tornado warnings right now its very windy over my house winds up to 50 mph

So maybe a basement or someplace other than at your computer might be in order?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
my town under a tornado warnings right now its very windy over my house winds up to 50 mph


Where do you live, exactly?
2263. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


I think we will see the shear fall off before it gets all the way to the Western Gulf, possibly as soon as 24 hours from now but of course the low then has to start to get its act together.Being June that won't happen overnight even with fair conditions aloft.


Yes, slow should be assumed for any June system. Wind shear directly over a convective mass in the SW Caribbean generally tends to be overestimated as well. The shear analysis reflects the strong ~20kt easterly surface inflow into the convective area, adding to the ~20kt of 200mb wind to get 40kts of shear. However, the large-scale surface steering is very light where the low center is, which is why it's not moving. The easterly inflow stops and converges before reaching central America, which means that in reality the shear is a good 10-20 knots lower directly over the convection area than the CIMSS analysis shows in situations like this.
Levi

The rainfall correlation project I was going to do won't happen unfortunately. I requested the rainfall data from our local weather service but what they wanted to charge me for it was off the chart. I did get some stats from our statistics department but only for 13 of the 54 years that data exists for. Not enough to establish a long term trend as the 13 years I obtained started with 1995 which was when we entered the historically active current period. A couple of years near the end of the period were not available from the statistics department.

One curious thing I did see was that November 2003 we only received 1.98 inches of rain and Nov 2004 1.06, both significantly below the average of 6.63 inches for that Month. You know what kind of seasons we had in the years that followed ( 2004 and 2005 ).

November 2010 we only received 1.06 inches identical to November 2004. Not enough data to establish anything but curious nonetheless.
only low i see on land 1007 mb low..why is the new low on land!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
my town under a tornado warnings right now its very windy over my house winds up to 50 mph


Move to a the safest place, protect your family and get your digital camera running...
The 00z surface analysis has the Colombian low down to 1005 mbs and another new low north of Panama.

2268. Levi32
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
only low i see on land 1007 mb low..why is the new low on land!!


Columbian heat low.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
only low i see on land 1007 mb low..why is the new low on land!!


So you are being ravaged by a tornado and instead of seeking shelter you are posting a surface analysis of the Tropical Atlantic...lmfao dude get to safety
Upper low near 25N 78W:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z surface analysis has the Colombian low down to 1005 mbs and another new low north of Panama.



The Eastern Pacific ITCZ is close to nosing back into the SW Caribbean across Panama as well.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Move to a the safest place, protect your family and get your digital camera running...


Abandoning the computer might also be advisable.
2273. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Levi

The rainfall correlation project I was going to do won't happen unfortunately. I requested the rainfall data from our local weather service but what they wanted to charge me for it was off the chart. I did get some stats from our statistics department but only for 13 of the 54 years that data exists for. Not enough to establish a long term trend as the 13 years I obtained started with 1995 which was when we entered the historically active current period. A couple of years near the end of the period were not available from the statistics department.

One curious thing I did see was that November 2003 we only received 1.98 inches of rain and Nov 2004 1.06, both significantly below the average of 6.63 inches for that Month. You know what kind of seasons we had in the years that followed ( 2004 and 2005 ).

November 2010 we only received 1.06 inches identical to November 2004. Not enough data to establish anything but curious nonetheless.


That's too bad....didn't think they'd charge for data that should be available anywhere? What about NCDC?

Thanks for the interesting tidbits though.
The only two active tropical waves in the basin are quickly approaching the disturbance. This could generate enough instability and lift to potentially trigger a surface low amidst the surface trough:

2275. Levi32
Satellites are measuring ~200mb winds at only 20-25kts maximum directly over the convection blob, with the stronger subtropical jet just northwest of the system. The shear analysis is taking into account the ~20kt surface inflow from the east, despite the fact that the low itself is not moving. A subjective point would also be to look at the blob on satellite loops and ask yourself whether that actually looks like 40kts of shear (directly over top of it). It looks like a bit less to me.

Quoting kmanislander:
Levi

The rainfall correlation project I was going to do won't happen unfortunately. I requested the rainfall data from our local weather service but what they wanted to charge me for it was off the chart. I did get some stats from our statistics department but only for 13 of the 54 years that data exists for. Not enough to establish a long term trend as the 13 years I obtained started with 1995 which was when we entered the historically active current period. A couple of years near the end of the period were not available from the statistics department.

One curious thing I did see was that November 2003 we only received 1.98 inches of rain and Nov 2004 1.06, both significantly below the average of 6.63 inches for that Month. You know what kind of seasons we had in the years that followed ( 2004 and 2005 ).

November 2010 we only received 1.06 inches identical to November 2004. Not enough data to establish anything but curious nonetheless.
Now that's interesting. Too bad they charge for more statistical data because I would be fascinated to see if this trend reoccurred in past winters that prelude to active an season.
2277. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:
The only two active tropical waves in the basin are quickly approaching the disturbance. This could generate enough instability and lift to potentially trigger a surface low amidst the surface trough:



I'm looking forward to when that newly-designated low-amplitude wave throws its two cents in there. I love low-amplitude long-period waves that ripple the entire ITCZ.
Quoting kmanislander:


Abandoning the computer might also be advisable.
See my earlier post.LOL
2279. xcool


2280. Levi32
Hmm ya...NCDC only has Cayman Island's station data between 2005 and 2009 for some reason.
Levi, what timeframe you are looking for invest 93L to be tagged? I say Wednesday.
Quoting Levi32:
Satellites are measuring ~200mb winds at only 20-25kts maximum directly over the convection blob, with the stronger subtropical jet just northwest of the system. The shear analysis is taking into account the ~20kt surface inflow from the east, despite the fact that the low itself is not moving. A subjective point would also be to look at the blob on satellite loops and ask yourself whether that actually looks like 40kts of shear (directly over top of it). It looks like a bit less to me.



Just was discussing this with a friend of mine. We both don't believe the upper level environment is as hostile as the CIMSS suggests as the convective pattern suggests quite the opposite as convection continues to build and maintain in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting kmanislander:
Levi

The rainfall correlation project I was going to do won't happen unfortunately. I requested the rainfall data from our local weather service but what they wanted to charge me for it was off the chart. I did get some stats from our statistics department but only for 13 of the 54 years that data exists for. Not enough to establish a long term trend as the 13 years I obtained started with 1995 which was when we entered the historically active current period. A couple of years near the end of the period were not available from the statistics department.

One curious thing I did see was that November 2003 we only received 1.98 inches of rain and Nov 2004 1.06, both significantly below the average of 6.63 inches for that Month. You know what kind of seasons we had in the years that followed ( 2004 and 2005 ).

November 2010 we only received 1.06 inches identical to November 2004. Not enough data to establish anything but curious nonetheless.


You could always try the World Data Center (WDC), they might have the data you need.
2284. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, what timeframe you are looking for invest 93L to be tagged? I say Wednesday.


If it actually shows promise, I would guess Thursday. That's probably when the NHC would officially acknowledge it, assuming there's still model support by that time. They could dump this system in a hurry if it's not destined to develop.
2285. alfabob
Hmm MI has a 60% chance for tornadoes tomorrow and temperatures are suppose to hit close to 95F which is about 4 degrees over the record. In fact its not even dropping below 70F tonight which is the average high for this time of month.
2286. Bitmap7
Quoting Levi32:
Satellites are measuring ~200mb winds at only 20-25kts maximum directly over the convection blob, with the stronger subtropical jet just northwest of the system. The shear analysis is taking into account the ~20kt surface inflow from the east, despite the fact that the low itself is not moving. A subjective point would also be to look at the blob on satellite loops and ask yourself whether that actually looks like 40kts of shear (directly over top of it). It looks like a bit less to me.




Yeah its kind of contradicting itself here.
2287. Levi32
Pressures are rising a bit more than the last diurnal max though.
Quoting Levi32:
Hmm ya...NCDC only has Cayman Island's station data between 2005 and 2009 for some reason.


Hey Levi, is it me or did the NCDCs "free data" shrink a little bit...half a year ago I remember they had a whole section devoted to international stations and now it seems to be gone.
2289. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:


Hey Levi, is it me or did the NCDCs "free data" shrink a little bit...half a year ago I remember they had a whole section devoted to international stations and now it seems to be gone.


They still have international data. It's in the link I posted. As for the volume of it, I don't use it enough to notice any trends or removal.
2290. Bitmap7


Quoting Levi32:


They still have international data. It's in the link I posted. As for the volume of it, I don't use it enough to notice any trends or removal.


Ahh ok
Quoting Levi32:


That's too bad....didn't think they'd charge for data that should be available anywhere? What about NCDC?

Thanks for the interesting tidbits though.


I have not found any data there for Cayman so far but will keep looking. Other interesting things I noticed from the 13 years I looked at was that 9 of the 13 years saw below average rainfall in November but 11 of the seasons that followed those years had above average TC activity ( more than 11 named storms ) . Four years had above average rainfall in November and in 2 of the 4 seasons that followed those the TC activity was below average ( 8 and 10 systems ), one year was close to average ( 12 systems ) and one was above average ( anomaly ? ).

The data, limited though it is, seems to suggests that rainfall in the NW Caribbean since we entered this active phase around 1995 has been below the long term average of 6.63 inches for November but TC activity has been above average in the years that followed. The years of above average rainfall in November had below average TC activity in 2 of the 4 years that followed and one year near average.

It will be interesting to see two things this year.

1. If the extremely low November rainfall for last November is followed by an above average season this year ( as forecasted ), and

2. If the almost non existent rainfall of 1.06 inches last November correlates to not only an active season this year but intense Caribbean systems such as we saw in 2004 and 2005 when rainfall deficit in November of the years preceding those was as severe as last November.

Food for thought



2293. 7544
our system seem to be trying to get its act together at this hour down there just might blossom at dmax sonner than expected dispite the shear imo

Link
Good night all. Looking forward to an update in the morning. Was overcast all day here in Norbrook, St. Andrew, Jamaica. Looking forward to rain to ease the drought but can't take floods.

Sleep well.
Quoting MrstormX:


So you are being ravaged by a tornado and instead of seeking shelter you are posting a surface analysis of the Tropical Atlantic...lmfao dude get to safety
Seek shelter!
only one red circle
Dry air coming aboard...
Quoting FrankZapper:
I suspect jasonweatherman2010 is a computer. He never seems to respond to others.

With 50mph winds around or a tornado in the area, maybe he lost WiFi or electric power... hope that's the only thing happening...
The latest surface observations in the SW Caribbean suggest that we have a low developing the area.
Night all. Pick up the adventure in the morning.
2302. Levi32
Well, I found data for Grand Cayman from 1973 to present at NCDC, and they want $140 for it lol. What a shame, really.
Convection has been persistent for the better part of the day, too.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
The latest surface observations in the SW Caribbean suggest that we have a low developing the area.
The NW wind reading in Puerto Limon is really interesting.
Levi,I know you are watching this closely.Gulf of Guinea continues to cool.

2306. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The NW wind reading in Puerto Limon is really interesting.


Indeed. The last 24 hours there have seen several wind shifts.
2307. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,I know you are watching this closely.Gulf of Guinea continues to cool.



Yeah...will be interesting to see if that holds.
Quoting Levi32:
Well, I found data for Grand Cayman from 1973 to present at NCDC, and they want $140 for it lol. What a shame, really.


I won't tell you what they wanted here for 1957 to the present LOL. Did you see my post 2292 ?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,I know you are watching this closely.Gulf of Guinea continues to cool.



why is that important?
Evening All.

The players are all coming together. You can see the upper level disturbance developing in the GOM pressing the sub tropical ridge tonight, likewise the AOI slowly progressing with ever increasing T-Storm activity (Moderate to Strong). Still not a drip of rain in the lower SE FL peninsula, the ULL has proved to be a sheep on the east coast anyway, back to hoping.
Quoting kmanislander:


I have not found any data there for Cayman so far but will keep looking. Other interesting things I noticed from the 13 years I looked at was that 9 of the 13 years saw below average rainfall in November but 11 of the seasons that followed those years had above average TC activity ( more than 11 named storms ) . Four years had above average rainfall in November and in 2 of the 4 seasons that followed those the TC activity was below average ( 8 and 10 systems ), one year was close to average ( 12 systems ) and one was above average ( anomaly ? ).

The data, limited though it is, seems to suggests that rainfall in the NW Caribbean since we entered this active phase around 1995 has been below the long term average of 6.63 inches for November but TC activity has been above average in the years that followed. The years of above average rainfall in November had below average TC activity in 2 of the 4 years that followed and one year near average.

It will be interesting to see two things this year.

1. If the extremely low November rainfall for last November is followed by an above average season this year ( as forecasted ), and

2. If the almost non existent rainfall of 1.06 inches last November correlates to not only an active season this year but intense Caribbean systems such as we saw in 2004 and 2005 when rainfall deficit in November of the years preceding those was as severe as last November.

Food for thought





That's fascinating. I love that kind of stuff. Been trying to dig up similar things about the weather in Texas too. Although my research is probably not as scientific as some. I still find it interesting. It's interesting to me in other places as well. This is all relatively new to me so I haven't gotten that far yet. I did notice that earlier someone posted about some of Florida's earlier tropical weather and the first recorded mainland hurricane was in 1906? I may have to read that again. That doesn't seem right? Anyway thanks for sharing. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's fascinating. I love that kind of stuff. Been trying to dig up similar things about the weather in Texas too. Although my research is probably not as scientific as some. I still find it interesting. It's interesting to me in other places as well. This is all relatively new to me so I haven't gotten that far yet. I did notice that earlier someone posted about some of Florida's earlier tropical weather and the first recorded mainland hurricane was in 1906? I may have to read that again. That doesn't seem right? Anyway thanks for sharing. :)


Thanks. I will be watching this year with more than a passing interest.:-)
2313. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


I won't tell you what they wanted here for 1957 to the present LOL. Did you see my post 2292 ?


Yes. I've been trying to think of a connection, but it's hard to draw one to the November preceding a hurricane season. It's a long way back. One thing I would say is that, as you mentioned, those 13 years of data were all since 1995, and thus your definition of an "above-average" season is going to apply much more often. The true average during a warm AMO period is much greater than 11 storms.
2314. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


why is that important?


It is one of the strongest influences on how far north the ITCZ gets during the height of the hurricane season, and how strong the African Easterly Jet is. Both factors determine how active of a Cape Verde season we have, and the entire season in general since it controls the strength of tropical waves.
Quoting Levi32:


It is one of the strongest influences on how far north the ITCZ gets during the height of the hurricane season, and how strong the African Easterly Jet is. Both factors determine how active of a Cape Verde season we have, and the entire season in general since it controls the strength of tropical waves.


So does cooler mean higher or lower ITCZ?
2316. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So does cooler mean higher or lower ITCZ?


Higher latitude, because the temperature gradient between the gulf and the Sahara Desert is greater. The air pressure is higher over the gulf, and lower over the desert, which draws the ITCZ further north.
2317. Levi32
It's kinda nice to see our first -80C cloud tops of the season in the Caribbean.

Quoting Levi32:


Yes. I've been trying to think of a connection, but it's hard to draw one to the November preceding a hurricane season. It's a long way back. One thing I would say is that, as you mentioned, those 13 years of data were all since 1995, and thus your definition of an "above-average" season is going to apply much more often. The true average during a warm AMO period is much greater than 11 storms.


I have the breakdown by month for all of the 13 years but since I concluded that those years all fell in the current active period I decided against trying to do anything in greater depth.Maybe one day I will get my hands on the 1957 to present data sets but for the price quoted it was out of the question.

Thats all for tonight. Back tomorrow.

Good night.
2319. alfabob
I cant tell if this thing is just fading away right now or is actually spinning up.
Quoting Levi32:
It's kinda nice to see our first -80C cloud tops of the season in the Caribbean.



Starting to get the sense that this may not be like the cycle we have been seeing the past few days in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting Levi32:


Higher latitude, because the temperature gradient between the gulf and the Sahara Desert is greater. The air pressure is higher over the gulf, and lower over the desert, which draws the ITCZ further north.


Which in turn would allow more waves the chance to form?
Just lurking .....but did want to say...thanks for posting all those good looking new visuals...they get better and better every season....and I have so many links saved, I'll never be able find anything lol, .... I really dont know why I save them, as they are always posted here....I'm rambling...bye :)
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Starting to get the sense that this may not be like the cycle we have been seeing the past few days in the SW Caribbean.

you got to admit its doing quite well right now this should continue and expand at D-Max
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Starting to get the sense that this may not be like the cycle we have been seeing the past few days in the SW Caribbean.
I agree. Convection is holding up better tonight as compared to the last few days. Could mean a low-level circulation is starting to establish itself.
What's burning in FL (alot). Some homes up in Volusia County evacuated earlier.
2327. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Which in turn would allow more waves the chance to form?


The stronger gradient also strengthens the African Easterly Jet, which is what the tropical waves form in. The stronger the jet, the stronger the waves. An AEJ farther north increases the overlap of the positive cyclonic vorticity region (south of the jet axis) with the low wind shear region of the eastern Atlantic. Such a setup produces active tropical seasons in the eastern Atlantic basin.
Quoting Levi32:


The stronger gradient also strengthens the African Easterly Jet, which is what the tropical waves form in. The stronger the jet, the stronger the waves. An AEJ farther north increases the overlap of the positive cyclonic vorticity region (south of the jet axis) with the low wind shear region of the eastern Atlantic. Such a setup produces active tropical seasons in the eastern Atlantic basin.



Ah gotcha that makes sense, do you know what influences temperatures in the gulf of guniea?
2329. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. Convection is holding up better tonight as compared to the last few days. Could mean a low-level circulation is starting to establish itself.


We're going to need to see some difference between the wind at San Andres and the NOAA buoy in the SW Caribbean before we can say a surface circulation is forming.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Starting to get the sense that this may not be like the cycle we have been seeing the past few days in the SW Caribbean.


A lot of mini-vorticie starting up tonight. Indicative of a forming low pressure.
2331. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Ah gotcha that makes sense, do you know what influences temperatures in the gulf of guniea?


The Benguela Current which rides up the west coast of Africa, similar to the Humboldt Current in that it can be upwelled and cool the water along the equator. It is fairly unpredictable, certainly more so than the ENSO. I hope to at some point spend time looking into possible causes of fluctuation such as wind patterns, perhaps governed by Walker-like circulations in that part of the world.
Quoting alfabob:
I cant tell if this thing is just fading away right now or is actually spinning up.


Looking at the animation, looks like it's trying to spin up. If this continues much longer we should see an invest.
2333. Levi32
Still poppin' hot-towers at 3:45UTC.

2334. alfabob
Caribbean does look like it is forming with the continuous ball of convection, although out-flow from the EPAC is going to inhibit any immediate formation of an anti-cyclone. Areas around 110W and 95W will continue to aid in the strength of the EPAC anti-cyclonic flow (even if they don't produce anything) but it should move off to the west allowing the Caribbean to further develop in a few days (that is if it is capable of producing its own anti-cyclone due to the moderate shear).
Quoting Levi32:


The Benguela Current which rides up the west coast of Africa, similar to the Humboldt Current in that it can be upwelled and cool the water along the equator. It is fairly unpredictable, certainly more so than the ENSO. I hope to at some point spend time looking into possible causes of fluctuation such as wind patterns, perhaps governed by Walker-like circulations in that part of the world.


Yeah it could put a lot more accuracy into preseason forecasts if they knew what that current was going to do. Is there a lot of data to back up the fact it enhances t-waves?
Quoting Skyepony:


Looking at the animation, looks like it's trying to spin up. If this continues much longer we should see an invest.


These EYES see some spin ~~~~~
Looks like the GFS is still holding the low in the Caribbean without much movement the next 6 days. That, at least has been consistent.
This suggests that wind shear isn't as big of a problem as we thought...

Notice that upper level winds are relatively weak directly over the convective complex.
2339. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah it could put a lot more accuracy into preseason forecasts if they knew what that current was going to do. Is there a lot of data to back up the fact it enhances t-waves?


It's common tropical meteorology. I've seen it written in various textbooks and online courses.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
This suggests that wind shear isn't as big of a problem as we thought...

Notice that upper level winds are relatively weak directly over the convective complex.


Looking at Satellite would tell me about 15kts.
Quoting Levi32:


We're going to need to see some difference between the wind at San Andres and the NOAA buoy in the SW Caribbean before we can say a surface circulation is forming.



A surface circulation is forming.
2342. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:
The only two active tropical waves in the basin are quickly approaching the disturbance. This could generate enough instability and lift to potentially trigger a surface low amidst the surface trough:



Was going to ask that XD
------------
I see we got a 1008mb low now.
And it begins...
Good morning, bloggers, =).
2344. Levi32
Quoting caneswatch:


A surface circulation is forming.


No, not with everybody north of Panama and Costa Rica reporting northeast winds.
Quoting Levi32:
Well, I found data for Grand Cayman from 1973 to present at NCDC, and they want $140 for it lol. What a shame, really.
that's pathetic. Someone should buy the data and repost it for free. put them out of business
2346. Levi32
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Looks like the GFS is still holding the low in the Caribbean without much movement the next 6 days. That, at least has been consistent.


And it still does absolutely nothing with it in terms of strengthening.
Quoting Levi32:


And it still does absolutely nothing with it in terms of strengthening.
Doesn't show as favorable an upper air pattern as the most recent runs in the NW Carib.
2348. alfabob
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
This suggests that wind shear isn't as big of a problem as we thought...

Notice that upper level winds are relatively weak directly over the convective complex.

Yea but I don't think it will stay that way, I would expect 20-30kt shear with a diffluent outflow for about 2 to 3 days until it starts to lift N/NW.
Alright, I need to ask this question: But, why hasn't Dr. Masters made Levi a featured blogger on this website, as of yet? I mean, geeze, are you kidding me, the kid is a sheer genius on here when it comes to the field of tropical meteorology, I mean, wow, I would know, I've been following him since last year, =).
Don't claim to know much of what I link. Though the South Equatorial Current looks to have an effect on the Gulf.



Results suggest that surface cooling is mostly due to vertical
mixing at the base of the surface mixed layer. At seasonal scale, the timing and distribution of turbulent heat
fluxes in the Gulf of Guinea is strongly correlated with the spatial structure and the time variability of the northern
and southern branches of the South Equatorial Current (SEC), and of the Guinea Current. Through modulation of
the velocity shear at the subsurface, these surface currents are shown to control the vertical turbulent exchanges,
bringing cold and nutrient rich waters to the surface.


2351. Levi32
Quoting cycleranger:
Don't claim to know much of what I link. Though the South Equatorial Current looks to have an effect on the Gulf.



Results suggest that surface cooling is mostly due to vertical
mixing at the base of the surface mixed layer. At seasonal scale, the timing and distribution of turbulent heat
fluxes in the Gulf of Guinea is strongly correlated with the spatial structure and the time variability of the northern
and southern branches of the South Equatorial Current (SEC), and of the Guinea Current. Through modulation of
the velocity shear at the subsurface, these surface currents are shown to control the vertical turbulent exchanges,
bringing cold and nutrient rich waters to the surface.







Seasonal modes of surface cooling in the Gulf of Guinea





Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11



Yeah, the Benguela Current turns into the South Equatorial Current within the Gulf of Guinea.
Quoting GoldCoast2011:
Alright, I need to ask this question: But, why hasn't Dr. Masters made Levi a featured blogger on this website, as of yet? I mean, geeze, are you kidding me, the kid is a sheer genius on here when it comes to the field of tropical meteorology, I mean, wow, I would know, I've been following him since last year, =).




hello am hunting JFV so i got too ask are you JFV?
the flare ups are due mostly in part to the difluent flow aloft to the aoi's north,any organization will take days and wont happen until sheer relaxes
What effect will have the infusion of dry air from GOM to the NW boundary of the low?

Quoting Tazmanian:




hello am hunting JFV so i got too ask are you JFV?


I am not, Tazmanian. My real name is Jacob, nice to meet you.
Well Here we go again....Good morning Night Shift...Hopefully look foreward to an exciting, interesting season of FISH STORMS!!

Coffee and Donuts are ready!!
Quoting GoldCoast2011:


I am not, Tazmanian. My real name is Jacob, nice to meet you.



nic too meet you and welcome too the blogs



i this wanted too make sure lol
Quoting Tazmanian:



nic too meet you and welcome too the blogs



i this wanted too make sure lol


It's alright, no worries, and thank you.
1008MB is expected to be added to the next update, this map is 2 hrs old.

2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Quoting GoldCoast2011:


It's alright, no worries, and thank you.




and your welcome
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Doesn't show as favorable an upper air pattern as the most recent runs in the NW Carib.


Ah ok. Thanks for explaining that. I'm trying to get to know how to read these models better. Good to compare what y'all are saying with what I'm seeing. :) From what I could tell from that run is it looks like the NE Caribbean and the SE U.S. will be getting a good amount of rain anyway, if nothing tropical. And for some reason it shows the precip stopping at the TX border. Would someone please remove the "Do Not Disturb" sign from Texas? Thank you. Lol.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, the Benguela Current turns into the South Equatorial Current within the Gulf of Guinea.


Originates off the Cape of Good Hope and journey's along the coast bringing cool water to the Tropics.

Oh how the world works together to help create this weather phenomena. Endlessly fascinating.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah ok. Thanks for explaining that. I'm trying to get to know how to read these models better. Good to compare what y'all are saying with what I'm seeing. :) From what I could tell from that run is it looks like the NE Caribbean and the SE U.S. will be getting a good amount of rain anyway, if nothing tropical. And for some reason it shows the precip stopping at the TX border. Would someone please remove the "Do Not Disturb" sign from Texas? Thank you. Lol.
The reason moisture is having a hard time reaching Texas is due to the flow around the upper level low that will be in the NW Gulf. The positioning of this low will determine how much moisture you will get there.
Quoting GoldCoast2011:
Good morning, bloggers, =).
morning VFJ
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning VFJ



keep hes not JFV
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah ok. Thanks for explaining that. I'm trying to get to know how to read these models better. Good to compare what y'all are saying with what I'm seeing. :) From what I could tell from that run is it looks like the NE Caribbean and the SE U.S. will be getting a good amount of rain anyway, if nothing tropical. And for some reason it shows the precip stopping at the TX border. Would someone please remove the "Do Not Disturb" sign from Texas? Thank you. Lol.


That would be a big change as repeatedly rain chances are proven false or insignificant for the SE. Although welcome, I doubt the validity.
Quoting traumaboyy:
Well Here we go again....Good morning Night Shift...Hopefully look foreward to an exciting, interesting season of FISH STORMS!!

Coffee and Donuts are ready!!


Hey Trauma. Yeah looks like the night shift is gearing up for another season here. Hopefully any of the bad ones will be fishes. And donuts would be divine right about now! :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Trauma. Yeah looks like the night shift is gearing up for another season here. Hopefully any of the bad ones will be fishes. And donuts would be divine right about now! :)


Howdy Maam.....They're Krispy Kreme.....Fresh!!
This area of disturb weather in the Carib. is getting clobbered by a lot of dry, stable air hitting it from the north. Thought, bloggers, will it survive it? I wouldn't think so.
Seems poised to make some substantial gains tonight and early morning. I am wondering if the little insignificant T-Wave provided more than previously thought?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The reason moisture is having a hard time reaching Texas is due to the flow around the upper level low that will be in the NW Gulf. The positioning of this low will determine how much moisture you will get there.


Ok. Thanks. So if it would get to my west it could pull the moisture up from the Caribbean to here? I think.
Quoting GoldCoast2011:
Alright, I need to ask this question: But, why hasn't Dr. Masters made Levi a featured blogger on this website, as of yet? I mean, geeze, are you kidding me, the kid is a sheer genius on here when it comes to the field of tropical meteorology, I mean, wow, I would know, I've been following him since last year, =).


There's more than meets the eye ;)
Quoting GoldCoast2011:
This area of disturb weather in the Carib. is getting clobbered by a lot of dry, stable air hitting it from the north. Thought, bloggers, will it survive it? I wouldn't think so.


The AOI in the SW Caribbean is south of the Sub-Tropical jet, it's getting clobbered by moisture at the moment.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah ok. Thanks for explaining that. I'm trying to get to know how to read these models better. Good to compare what y'all are saying with what I'm seeing. :) From what I could tell from that run is it looks like the NE Caribbean and the SE U.S. will be getting a good amount of rain anyway, if nothing tropical. And for some reason it shows the precip stopping at the TX border. Would someone please remove the "Do Not Disturb" sign from Texas? Thank you. Lol.


MOST OF THE OUTLOOKS BEYOND SON 2011 SHOW EQUAL CHANCES (EC)BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CLIMATE SIGNALS,EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN JFM AND FMA
2012.


Modified Comment: Looks like the Temps will be above average and our rain chances on the Below side...the worst side. Oy.


2376. Levi32
0z NOGAPS ringing in with sub-1000mb pressures, but overall not too strong, lifting northeast over Cuba by Day 7:

2377. xcool
Quoting caneswatch:


There's more than meets the eye ;)


What do you mean? He should replace StormW, I'd think.
Quoting caneswatch:


There's more than meets the eye ;)

After Dr. JMasters, Levi is second to him....
I mean, in meteorological knowledge and dedication to the blog..
Quoting GoldCoast2011:


What do you mean? He should replace StormW, I'd think.


I wouldn't mention that name on here.
Quoting sunlinepr:

After Dr. JMasters, Levi is second to him....
I mean, in meteorological knowledge and dedication to the blog, you know ;)


I'm just sayin', there's more than meets the eye.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok. Thanks. So if it would get to my west it could pull the moisture up from the Caribbean to here? I think.
Yup, unfortunately, it doesn't look like that is being forecast by the models at this time.
Quoting sunlinepr:

After Dr. JMasters, Levi is second to him....
I mean, in meteorological knowledge and dedication to the blog, you know ;)


That's what I'm saying, name me someone else in here, that knows more about the tropics then Levi does?
Quoting GoldCoast2011:


That's what I'm saying, name me someone else in here, that knows more about the tropics then Levi does?

stormtop


...anyways, I don't think this system gets pulled northeast at all really. I see more of a 2005 arlene setup.
Quoting eyestalker:

stormtop


...anyways, I don't think this system gets pulled northeast at all really. I see more of a 2005 arlene setup.
Do you think the GOM is a possibility?
Quoting GoldCoast2011:


That's what I'm saying, name me someone else in here, that knows more about the tropics then Levi does?


Not to offend anyone's Met. education, but... In order to prepare the tidbits, he has to consider sat. weather info. and dynamics, studiy each model, see the similarities and differences, consider any other met. tools, get to conclusions, create the animations and explain them, post them in his Youtube site and update his WU blog... and that dedication and effort is shared as info to us...
I really appreciate that effort......

Bedtime, good night all
2387. Levi32
0z CMC just as weak as the last two runs. It leaves a weak piece behind, but it's basically saying no development.

2388. Levi32
The 0z UKMET, on the other hand, is still telling the same story that it has all along.

Quoting cycleranger:


MOST OF THE OUTLOOKS BEYOND SON 2011 SHOW EQUAL CHANCES (EC)BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CLIMATE SIGNALS,EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN JFM AND FMA
2012.


Modified Comment: Looks like the Temps will be above average and our rain chances on the Below side...the worst side. Oy.



PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS







Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 13



Oh boy. Starting to look more and more likely any rain will have to come from something tropical.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Yup, unfortunately, it doesn't look like that is being forecast by the models at this time.


Sigh. Well on the bright side I did learn something anyway. To quote Cycloneranger, "Oy." :)
Quoting Levi32:
The 0z UKMET, on the other hand, is still telling the same story that it has all along.



Its really been the only consistent model during the past few days.
Quoting Levi32:
The 0z UKMET, on the other hand, is still telling the same story that it has all along.

Very consistent run-to-run. Right now the model I'm focusing on.
2392. xcool
next forecast models ECMWF
2393. Levi32
Goodnight all. We shall see what tomorrow brings.
2394. alfabob
UKMET seems about right to me, other models should start favoring a scenario more like that. Only thing that I'm not 100% sure about is the EPAC unless it keeps/improves on its current structure; but I guess it would have 6 days to get there.
Upper-level winds still look a bit too hostile to allow for rapid development over the next couple of days, but the current convective burst, should it continue, might aid the system a little bit.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Upper-level winds still look a bit too hostile to allow for rapid development over the next couple of days, but the current convective burst, should it continue, might aid the system a little bit.


True, Kori.
people are forgetting, the UKMET has been essentially out of the loop since 2007, which renders it difficult to rely on a model like that

However I remain confident and I hope that it makes it to the gulf, I live in Texas and we could sure use the rain!

Quoting eyestalker:
people are forgetting, the UKMET has been essentially out of the loop since 2007, which renders it difficult to rely on a model like that

However I remain confident and I hope that it makes it to the gulf, I live in Texas and we could sure use the rain!
If I recall correctly, the UKMET was one of the few global models incorrectly predicting Gustav's path, being heavily biased toward the west.

And it could certainly make it into the Gulf, but I have my doubts as to whether or not it'll be a full-fledged tropical cyclone.
the purple is spreading
2400. xcool



shear forecast
Relevant excerpt from the 0z Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD) from the NHC:


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG
ACTIVITY IS ALSO INLAND ACROSS PANAMA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S
OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-17N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF 75W CENTERED
N OF BRAZIL NEAR 9N54W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING
. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES WESTWARD.

Obligatory image:

Quoting KoritheMan:
Relevant excerpt from the 0z Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD) from the NHC:


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG
ACTIVITY IS ALSO INLAND ACROSS PANAMA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S
OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-17N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF 75W CENTERED
N OF BRAZIL NEAR 9N54W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING
. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES WESTWARD.

Obligatory image:



Is the new ECM out yet, Kori? I would like to view it before hitting the hay, lol.
Quoting traumaboyy:
Well Here we go again....Good morning Night Shift...Hopefully look foreward to an exciting, interesting season of FISH STORMS!!

Coffee and Donuts are ready!!
I'll 2nd that. Good morning night shift!
2404. xcool
soon ecw
Quoting xcool:
soon ecw


Thank you, XCool, 3am, right?
Why you don't want to be in Virginia this upcoming week. Not enough to issue a tornado alert...
...but still, what with "the third time's a charm", "three on a match", etc...
2407. xcool
GoldCoast2011 3am yes
2408. JRRP

96hr
at least we will see an INVEST lol

see you tomorrow
2409. xcool
lol
Hey night WU'ers! I see convection and have read backa bit. But I haven't had a chance yet to go over models and such. So.. What's going on??
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very consistent run-to-run. Right now the model I'm focusing on.


What are we looking at MH? Depression, Storm, Cane? I really got to go look at the models.. BBL
Quoting nocaneindy:
Hey night WU'ers! I see convection and have read backa bit. But I haven't had a chance yet to go over models and such. So.. What's going on??


Our AOI is hanging on better than expected in the face of strong upper-level southwesterlies. The current convective blowup, if it persists, could generate a surface low underneath the convection sometime today, especially when you take into account the two tropical waves approaching the system from the east.

Conditions still do not look overly favorable, however, and I still only see this system making 40 kt if it forms at all. Regardless, there exists a small window of opportunity for drought relief across portions of the Gulf Coast and deep south over the next 7 days or so as the system's moisture gradually gets drawn northward by the upper low over the Bahamas, which is forecast by the global models to retrograde westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
This is what I think is going to happen
the two main Blobs #1 at 12N/13N 80W #2 at 8N/9N 77W will merge as shown below

and the low will fully form note to that it is merging right under the 850 vort max as shown below

I think we very well may have Invest 93L by this Evening it will develop into our first TC in the next couple of days and the overall track movement I think will be N with maybe a Western bias

now we have our low

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST May 31 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, A Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) is located near 19.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported moving north at 10 knots.
Another explosion reported at FukushimaDaiichi, this time on the south side of reactor#4.
TEPCO says that "...no fire or smoke has been spotted, and there have been no noticeable changes in radiation levels at monitoring posts within the compound. No injuries have been reported" and that "unmanned heavy machinery removing debris at the site may have damaged what may be a gas cylinder and caused it to explode."

That TEPCO knows so little as to be forced to use "may" as a modifier is less than comforting.

Due to rainfall from Songda, the water level has increased by 37.6centimetres(~14.8inches) in the basement of FukushimaDaiichi's reactor#1.
And this is just the beginning of Japan's rainy season.

And on a news scroll, "a private think tank says the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant could cost Japan up to 250 billion dollars over the next ten years".
Still haven't been able to run down the story for particulars...
...but that would make the TEPCO meltdowns by themselves financially more costly than repairing the rest of the damage caused by the GreatTohokuEarthquake and tsunami.
2417. ackee
Any one think we see two LOWS forming does seem possible flooding may be a major problem in central and western carib in the next couple of days
2418. IKE
60 hour 6Z GFS....


Quoting caneswatch:


I wouldn't mention that name on here.


Why? I've been lurking here for a couple seasons...I used to follow his forecasts on here. He seems extremely knowledgeable on the tropics.
2421. IKE
Quoting Hurrykane:


Why? I've been lurking here for a couple seasons...I used to follow his forecasts on here. He seems extremely knowledgeable on the tropics.
www.stormw.com

................................................. .................................................. .........

6Z GFS @ 156 hours....


2422. aquak9
g'morning ya'll.

ike- that's it, eh? oh well. At least I won't be seeing the temps many folks will be seeing in the next week or so.
2423. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ya'll.

ike- that's it, eh? oh well. At least I won't be seeing the temps many folks will be seeing in the next week or so.
My NWS forecast calls for no chance of rain tomorrow.

TWC forecast for tomorrow for me calls for a 50% chance of rain with a high near 100.
2424. aquak9
I'd go with the NWS. Wonder where TWC came up with that percentage. Dice? Dartboard? Magic 8-ball?
2425. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
I'd go with the NWS. Wonder where TWC came up with that percentage. Dice? Dartboard? Magic 8-ball?
lol

looks like a big system forming
2427. IKE
NOGAPS 00Z @ 144 hours...


Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS 00Z @ 144 hours...




Thanks Ike...seems the NOGAPS has it the strongest.
2429. aquak9
Quoting islander101010:
cialis? weatherunderground is advertising it. if our system had alittle of that it might get big. might also turn into a freak doing odd things. looks like a big system forming


If you were a member, you would get longer radar loops, and no advertisements.

And maybe if more men had cialis, they would not sit here 24/7, chasing camel farts.
2430. IKE

Quoting aquak9:


If you were a member, you would get longer radar loops, and no advertisements.

And maybe if more men had cialis, they would not sit here 24/7, chasing camel farts.
LOL!

Levitra works too!
2431. Bitmap7
I think the gfs and ecmwf will lock in with the nogap's and ukmet's tracking soon.
2432. Gearsts
More rain for PR :(
Good morning. May will end on a wet note in Puerto Rico,with a very above average rainfall. I will post tommorow the stats of the month.
Good morning. May will end on a wet note in Puerto Rico as it has been well above average rainfall. I will post the May stats tommorow.

Edit: Oh my double post. I dont know what happened.

Morning everyone, checking in before work.
Seems our area in the SW Caribbean is holding its own.
2436. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A STAGNANT WX PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS S FL
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE AT MODEST SPEEDS. SO FOR AT LEAST TODAY,
THE THUNDER CHANCES LOOK SLIM DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS
AND
ECMWF KEEP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING VERY
LITTLE.
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THAT MAY TAKE PLACE IS AT THE END OF
THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD, A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AS THIS HAPPENS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC RIDGE
TO SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTH FL. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SFC GRADIENT AND
THE LOW LEVEL EAST WIND WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN. BUT UNTIL THEN, THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL.
2437. IKE
5 day QPF.....


At the ROI (Rate of organization), I'd say we have TD #1 by next Tuesday.
more purple
2440. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
At the ROI (Rate of organization), I'd say we have TD #1 by next Tuesday.
It does seems like a s-l-o-w process. If at all....although it looks better than yesterday.
Quoting IKE:

It does seems like a s-l-o-w process. If at all.


Well that is to be expected with monsoonal development...takes a long time to consolidate.
I say at the rate its going we may get 93L today or tonight and TD 1 by Saturday Afternoon/evening
2443. IKE
Look at it this way....in less than 18 hours the season starts and the NHC will give us their opinion. Thank goodness.
Older:


Newer:
2445. IKE
Bastardi thinks.....twitter style....

Joe Bastardi

Watch the western Caribbean folks.. as if on cue... the tropics will start to light up this week there

Panama radar.

2447. Bitmap7
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Older:


Newer:



We obviously are looking at two different images.


Which is correct!?!
2448. IKE

Quoting Bitmap7:



We obviously are looking at two different images.


Which is correct!?!


they both are... they have different color scales.
2450. Bitmap7
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they both are... they have different color scales.


Thats interesting I never new that they did them in different color scales. The goes site didn't really specify. Thanks for clearing that up. I am gonna stick with mine in that case, when stuff flares up on it, you its hit the fan and is now all over the room.
2451. IKE
(CNN) -- Officials in Joplin, Missouri, trimmed the list of people still missing Monday, more than a week after the most-deadly U.S.tornado in more than 60 years tore through the city.

Twenty-nine people remain unaccounted for, down from 43 on Sunday, according to the Missouri Department of Public Safety. That figure includes three people whose families have reported them as dead.
2452. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED BETWEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIE IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN NW ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. BROAD LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT.
2453. Bitmap7


You can see those thunderheads bellowing up in Vis.
It took Alex over a week to develop last year and it was in a better shear environment than our potential Arlene.



Meanwhile, looks interesting, but nothing will come from it...

2455. IKE
I hope that moisture from the Caribbean makes it up into the northern GOM. We need some rain.
2456. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
I hope that moisture from the Caribbean makes it up into the northern GOM. We need some rain.
It appears that low pressure will be sticking around the Western Caribbean for quite some time time...GFS at 216 hours...
2457. Jax82
16 hours til Hurricane Season officially starts!
Link my new blog
2459. hydrus
Quoting Jax82:
16 hours til Hurricane Season officially starts!
And of course the NOGAPS has a storm down there...
2460. hydrus
2461. Bitmap7
The MM5 model run has a north then west kind of track

blog page update completed for the season come check it out

Link
the low pressure might drag all the moisture north of the greater antillias into to it while also absorbing this low amplitude energy coming from its east. every system during the formation stage are different. just a guess big bend area 10days as a large tropical storm
2464. Bitmap7
Link to MM5

Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


exactly when you mess with the strength of a storm you are also affecting what ends up steering it.


I wasn't aware cloud seeding was actually effective enough to push a tropical cyclone into a different steering level. That's really interesting.
Good Morning...I think it is going to be a long wait for something in the SW Caribbean. As far as something flourishing later on down the road towards the Gulf, lots of factors against it right now not the least being all of the dry air in that region and the orientation of the current Tutt cell over Cuba and the Yucatan Channel....It's definately a wait and see but I am not holding my breath on this one.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
659 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TO GUATEMALA/BELIZE-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING BETWEEN JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA AND 20N 50W...WITH
MOIST TONGUE ENVELOPING HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SUSTAINS AN ITCZ MOIST SURGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH AXIS APPEARING NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION
.


It's an ITCZ thang............
actually the low pressure seems to be forming rather fast and soon it will be designated as an invest looking at the rate of thunder storm activity and the current structure of the system!! however i do think it is waiting on one final energy from that wave to its east normally wen thunder storms fire up like this it is an indication it is however fighting of some factors
2469. Gearsts
Shear doesnt look super strong were the heavy convection is, I'll say 20kt to 25kt.
i study a bit of cloud structures and looking at the visible sat one can tell that something is trying to form probably the only thing holding it back and at the same time helping it to survive is the location..it is embedded within the itcz.
Carbon emissions from energy use hit record level, agency says

CNN) -- Carbon emissions from energy use reached a record level last year, up 5% from the previous record in 2008, the International Energy Agency said.

The Paris-based agency called the findings a "serious setback" to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), which was set at the U.N. climate change talks in Cancun, Mexico, last year.

"Our latest estimates are another wake-up call," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA. "The world has edged incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 ... it will be extremely challenging to succeed in achieving this global goal agreed in Cancun."

Carbon emissions climbed to a record 30.6 gigatonnes in 2010. For the 2-degree goal to remain attainable, emissions in 2020 can't be greater than 32 gigatonnes.

Residents of southern Michigan were cleaning up on Monday after a violent storm ripped through the region, leaving at least 30,000 people without power, authorities said. The Sunday storm hit northern Illinois with heavy rains and lightning, canceling at least 400 flights at Chicago airports, before raking a stretch of southern Michigan from Kalamazoo to Detroit. No deaths or injuries were reported, officials said. The storm's 60-mile-per-hour winds drove heavy rain, uprooted hundreds of trees, ripped the roofs off buildings, and twisted billboards in and around Battle Creek, a city of 50,000 about 120 miles west of Detroit. "As of right now we are going around taking trees off of houses, clearing out roadways, and pushing all of the debris aside so emergency vehicles can get to people who need it," said Tyler Upston, 24, who owns a landscaping business in Battle Creek. "Tomorrow we will start the full clean up." About 34,000 people were still without power in Battle Creek's Calhoun County on Monday and "a significant number of Michigan residents are without power throughout the area hit by the storm," said Bob Dukesherer, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
2473. IKE



2474. whadat
!
so when will this most likely be declared an Invest?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND S OF 11N
BETWEEN 74W-84W. A HORIZONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR THIS AREA OF
HEAVY STORMS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-71W. B
H01 0.+++0 THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF
75W CENTERED N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW
FORMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES
WESTWARD.

Lets jack oil up since hurricane season starts tomm

WTI Crude Oil
$102.37 ▲1.78
2478. IKE
NEW BLOG!
2479. ackee
I wonder when will the NHC will mention the distrubuance in SW carib not even a yellow circle
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets jack oil up since hurricane season starts tomm

WTI Crude Oil
$102.37 ▲1.78

I thought it was "Lets jack up oil prices since it is a day that ends in Y, and my kid just got their tuition bill".
The water vapor is tantalizing close -- but doesn't look like it will get here any time soon.

Haven't really begun the rainy season here in Miami, and the pattern setting up doesn't look like there will be much for the next 8-10 days.

2482. cre13
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Do you guys have sirens? Here in Macon, GA it's awfully hard to continue and go about what you're doing with deafening air raid sirens blaring.


No, we don't have sirens that go off for weather warnings. We have them but they are used for the volunteer fire department. The community is so used to hearing them to alert the volunteer fire fighters that they would ignore them if they were set off for weather reasons. I just don't have a clue about how to alarm these folks. People just seem to not care.
Before all you people get to excited about florida being hit by a depression or storm it isn't going to happen the westerlies that are in the GOM are much to strong..If anything tries to move into the GOM it will be ripped to shreds...The conditions are much to hostile for this thing to develop...So for now the the tropics are quiet.
2484. Patrap




I got a login just so I can respond to Jeff's posting regarding tornado warnings. Earlier warnings won't save many lives. Here's why:

I have a sister who lives in Joplin. I was on the phone with her just minutes before the tornado struck. She said "Oh, we're having another tornado warning. I'm going to turn the TV off, we get so many of those. This graphically illustrates a problem of crying wolf - too many warnings that are not geographically relevant. Warnings are issued on a potential tornado miles away and moving away or parallel. That's one problem - people get jaded.

Second problem - there's no place to hide from a storm of that magnitude. Hardly any houses have basements anymore. I heard that the Joplin twister was warned 24 minutes before it struck. That's plenty of time to hunker down in the middle of your house, but a lot of people weren't saved by that, because the entire house was destroyed right down to the foundation.

To save lives: 1. make warnings meaningful; 2. encourage, somehow, the construction of shelters, hardened rooms, some place people can be safe.

Thanks,
RandyWeather
2486. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN