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Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2011

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. An ASCAT pass from 8:08 pm EDT last night showed 98L was close to closing off a well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical depression, but most of them do show some weak development. NHC gave the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. Given the recent increase in spin on visible satellite images and favorable environment for development, I'd bump these odds up to 70%. 98L is currently moving little, but is expected to begin a westward motion at 10 mph today. This motion would take 98L into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The northern Lesser Antilles would be most likely to see the core of the storm, as has been the case for all of this year's disturbances. However, a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFS model, cannot be ruled out. Once 98L does reach the Lesser Antilles, all of the models indicate the storm will see a sharp increase in vertical wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands.

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the rest of September
Ocean temperatures are starting to decline in the North Atlantic, though remain much above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. The latest departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average plot (Figure 2) shows a large area of ocean temperatures near 1°C above average. The water temperatures were 0.8°C above average in this region during August, which is the 4th highest such reading on record. These warm waters will allow for an above-average chance of African tropical waves developing through early October. By early October, the African Monsoon typically begins to wane, spawning fewer tropical waves that tend to be weaker, and we should stop seeing development of newly-emerged tropical waves off the coast of Africa.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for September 19, 2011. Ocean temperatures were about 1°C above average over much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. In the Pacific off the coast of South America, we can see the tell-tale signature of a La Niña event, with cooler than average waters along the Equator. Also note the cooler than average waters between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, due to the passage of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Katia. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear has been near average over the tropical Atlantic this hurricane season, and is currently at its climatological low point, which occurs in mid-September. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows wind shear will remain at the sort of typical low levels we usually see this time of year. With ocean temperatures at near-record warm levels, this combination would tend to favor formation of at least two tropical storms between now and the beginning of October. One inhibiting factor, though, may be the continued presence of dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes like to have an unstable atmosphere, with moist, warm air near the surface, and cold, dryer air aloft. This situation helps the updrafts in the storm grow stronger. This year, we've had unusually stable air (Figure 3.) This has really put the brakes on intensification of most of the tropical storms that have formed. The current ratio of 14 named storms but only 3 hurricanes is unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1851. Usually, just over half of all Atlantic tropical storms intensify into hurricanes. One other factor to consider, the 30-60 day pattern of increased thunderstorm activity known as the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO), looks like it will have little influence over the coming week. The MJO has been weak all month, and is predicted to stay weak for the remainder of this week.


Figure 3. Vertical instability, as measured by the difference in temperature near the surface to the bottom of the stratosphere. The atmosphere in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (right) has been much more stable than average this year (average is the thick black line). Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
We are past the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks on September 10. On average, about 60% of the activity has occurred by this point in the season. Since we've already had 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes, at the current rate, we would expect to see another 8 or 9 named storms, with 1 or 2 of them reaching hurricane strength. It's pretty tough to maintain the sort of activity levels we've seen so far this year, so I am forecasting we'll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to "W" in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we'll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength. As far as steering currents go, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model doesn't show any significant changes to the jet stream pattern we've seen all summer. There will continue to be a parade of troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that will tend to curve any storms northwards and then northeastwards out to sea, once they penetrate north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This pattern favors strikes on North Carolina and New England, and discourages strikes on Texas. I doubt Texas will see a tropical storm this year given this steering pattern, and considering that Texas' tropical cyclone season tends to peak in late August and early September. It is quite unusual for Texas to have a tropical storm or hurricane this late in the season, so they will probably have to look elsewhere for drought-busting rains.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/graphics/AT0 9/09.AL0904W.GIF
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's raining heavy here in NOLA. I wish I Knew how to post radar.


FZ, just make a selection (animated), copy paste


Link
Quoting twincomanche:
Sure it does. I have a different name now. You know kind of a troll like character.
there is nothing wrong with coming back just be civil and friendly and tell know one who you are or were start again brand new page only then do we stand a chance to begin again
Invest 98L should be on a west heading for a while until a point somewhere between Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba, before it makes up its mind to turn North or continue west towards Central America, the trough on the latest GFS run doesn't really look all that strong, so it may continue on its westward heading. In all due respect future Ophelia looks like she will be a dandy, and I just have bad feelings about this one.

Quoting Levi32:
It's not dry air. It's the lack of vertical instability.

It's been quite moist this year in the Atlantic, expected with warmer than normal SSTs.

June 1st through September 15th, 2011 Precipitable Water Anomalies:



Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability:

Right, and dry air, particularly at the low levels of the atmosphere, causes a lack of vertical instability.

If you look at the 850mb and 925 mb (low levels of the atmosphere) relative humidity over the tropical Atlantic over the exact same dates as your PW anomaly map, you will find that it has been drier than normal. A drier low level atmosphere makes for a relatively denser low level atmosphere (when compared to a moister atmosphere), making it harder for the air to continue to rise once it has already been pushed up. In other words, it is stabler.

Here's the 850mb plot




I agree there is more to it than that, but the low level of the atmosphere has been drier than normal, which would help partially explain the lack of vertical instability.
Quit feeding the trolls. Your just trying to stroke your own damn egos. No one, not one, has those magical words. Nothing you say, will send a troll crying into the night. You may get a + or two. But the troll, feels as if he has gotten 50. Your trying to put out a fire, with gasoline.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is nothing wrong with coming back just be civil and friendly and tell know one who you are or were start again brand new page only then do we stand a chance to begin again
Read my next post.
Quoting twincomanche:
Sure it does. I have a different name now. You know kind of a troll like character.


Heh. What was the old handle?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A tropical storm hit my land on Dec 12 1887 and quickly dissipated


TS 19 , 1887


December, quite a storm!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking at the convection and how its moving east reminds me of Wrong Way Lenny.
I have a different name now. You know kind of a troll like character.

Cool.
Quoting Tazmanian:




well do


Have any gas issues lately?
Quoting twincomanche:
Patrap. LOL.


*snicker* yeah I asked a dumb question.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Right, and dry air, particularly at the low levels of the atmosphere, causes a lack of vertical instability.

If you look at the 850mb and 925 mb (low levels of the atmosphere) relative humidity over the tropical Atlantic over the exact same dates as your PW anomaly map, you will find that it has been drier than normal. A drier low level atmosphere makes for a relatively denser low level atmosphere (when compared to a moister atmosphere), making it harder for the air to continue to rise once it has already been pushed up. In other words, it is stabler.

Here's the 850mb plot




I agree there is more to it than that, but the low level of the atmosphere has been drier than normal, which would help partially explain the lack of vertical instability.


You always respond to several hour old posts :P
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


*snicker* yeah I asked a dumb question.
There are no dumb questions on here.
520. JLPR2
98L's reformation to the east is evident on vort maps and also another nice detail:

The mid level vort has strengthen, 98L isn't as shallow as it was yesterday.
It has been 20 days since the EPAC has had a storm, since then it has been dead quiet, Invest 96E looks like it will make a run at the H name, I think it's Hilary.

I think 98L will struggle throughout its journey across the Atl into the Caribbean, then shear will rip it apart or expose the center of circulation. Might be a threat to the GOM in the future.
Did 99 replace 98L or are there 2 separate invests right now?
What the name Ophelia means...

fem. proper name, from Gk. opheleia "help, aid," from ophelein "to help, aid, assist," ophelos "advantage, help"

Would it not be ironic and fitting if she rolled straight into TX as a TS w/ drought-busting rains?

I man can dream... love y'all, TX!!!
Quoting Delsol:
Did 99 replace 98L or are there 2 separate invests right now?
only one 98L all others deactivated
next invest number 90L
98L (notice the naked swirl to its northwest)

Quoting Delsol:
Did 99 replace 98L or are there 2 separate invests right now?




no 99L is dead gone RIP



the olny game in town is 98L
what throws some off is that WU main page still has 99L on it
POSS.T.C.F.W.
98L/INV/XX
MARK
11.27N/37.31W
531. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




no 99L is dead gone RIP



the olny game in town is 98L


Not really completely dead.
532. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS.T.C.F.W.
98L/INV/XX
MARK
11.27N/37.31W


Wow, almost exactly were the new ATCF update says it is.

AL, 98, 2011092000, , BEST, 0, 113N, 372W, 25, 1008, DB

Good eye!
No change. No longer a low however...now classified as a disturbance.

AL, 98, 2011092000, , BEST, 0, 113N, 372W, 25, 1008, DB,

T-number from SAB below:

19/2345 UTC 11.0N 37.4W T1.0/1.0 98L

IMO, 98L still has another day or two of organization before classification takes place.
Re: Post 502.
That is not nice!
But Ivan would follow the Everywhere Then Texas model.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You always respond to several hour old posts :P
got to love trolls
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/graphics/AT0 9/09.AL0904W.GIF
In the Cayman Islands, we hate anything Lo and slow to develop, Ivan wrecked us big time. We also hate the big and fast systems to start below us, no way to watch a developing system in the Caribbean, so we have to watch getting plowed from right or maybe plowed from within. It's a tough game when you are sitting on the possible storms marching through you.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I apologize, I just lost it. Really stressed out today with the amount of homework I had to do, so the last thing I needed were trolls, let alone a tag team... sigh.
notice there quiet now does not take long
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
next invest number 90L


Thanks Gate!
Quoting twincomanche:
Patrap. LOL.
patrap is a powerhouse. Don't mess with him.
my *list*
is at
231
and still growing.
It works for me.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Eatrap is a powerhouse. Don't mess with him.
I fear no evil....
Sorry if this has been posted before but it's relevant anyway.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE EAST ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Invest 98L should be on a west heading for a while until a point somewhere between Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba, before it makes up its mind to turn North or continue west towards Central America, the trough on the latest GFS run doesn't really look all that strong, so it may continue on its westward heading. In all due respect future Ophelia looks like she will be a dandy, and I just have bad feelings about this one.

Looks like it will follow a Katia type of track in the end.
Uhh, this is cold-core right?
548. JLPR2
Didn't catch much, but it does show that the LLC we were following is gone, another probably took its place were the center of 98L is now placed.

Look at that void of dryness in the middle!
Ophelia used to iron and fold clothes and peal shrimp for my Mother.
Roke...Cat 3
Quoting tropicfreak:


I apologize, I just lost it. Really stressed out today with the amount of homework I had to do, so the last thing I needed were trolls, let alone a tag team... sigh.


Don't sweat it. I wasn't singling you out. It was a generalized admonition to all troll feeders.
Evening all!

Looks to be quieter than the past few days, when the hostility level was a bit too high for me.

Assuming 98L made it into the gulf, which seems at least a possibility, given how far south it is, and how the models have it going generally westward, rather than northward, where's it likely to head from there? Texas? Mexico? Northern Gulf? Or West Florida?

I do realize it's still a long way out, and things are subject to change. Just wondering which way the proverbial wind is blowing...
Quoting tropicfreak:


I apologize, I just lost it. Really stressed out today with the amount of homework I had to do, so the last thing I needed were trolls, let alone a tag team... sigh.
Yea Algebra can be quite a *****.
...my Brotha FrankZapper, Homie, check it out.

If you ever need to post the NOLA Radar, just quote my radar which is usually the first Post on my Blog, and snatch up the Img HTML Code between the quote Icons.





It should look like the above.

Post it directly n the comment box, bypassing the Image Button as its already sized .


..no charge. : )




Quoting Patrap:
...my Brotha FrankZapper, Homie, check it out.

If you ever need to post the NOLA Radar, just quote my radar which is usually the first Post on my Blog, and snatch up the Img HTML Code between the quote Icons.





It should look like the above.

Post it directly n the comment box, bypassing the Image Button as its already sized .




Thanks,Pat
Quoting outlookchkr:
In the Cayman Islands, we hate anything Lo and slow to develop, Ivan wrecked us big time. We also hate the big and fast systems to start below us, no way to watch a developing system in the Caribbean, so we have to watch getting plowed from right or maybe plowed from within. It's a tough game when you are sitting on the possible storms marching through you.
Where in the Cayman Islands are you ?
Quoting FrankZapper:
Thanks,Pat


anytime. Now I gotz to back up zee DVR as I missed MNF Kickoff.

But for a Homie, I do dat.
..Oh if you go to the blog, dont mess with Gustavo and Jesse, they hanging out in comment 2 or 3 I think.

Wah,

wah,

wahhhhhhhhh................
Quoting seafarer459:
Quit feeding the trolls. Your just trying to stroke your own damn egos. No one, not one, has those magical words. Nothing you say, will send a troll crying into the night. You may get a or two. But the troll, feels as if he has gotten 50. Your trying to put out a fire, with gasoline.


Words to the Wise:

Behavior that is REINFORCED will be repeated.

Behavior that is NOT REINFORCED will be extinguished.

I find the "Ignore" feature helps me to avoid the urge to respond to those who irritate us, by making them invisible! Some days I am not strong enough to resist.
Quoting Patrap:


anytime. Now I gotz to back up zee DVR as I missed MNF Kickoff.

But for a Homie, I do dat.
How bout dem Saints! And Bear fans were showed a good time too. :)
They sold a LOT of Dome Foam yesterday fo sho..


Who Dat! part Deux
Evening all. Been reading back before getting on. :(

Loved the rain last night. Had hoped for more, but it was a great storm. Amazing thin line red line of a squall that came down and through.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where in the Cayman Islands are you ?


Hi there

Another local ??. I have been off for about 2 weeks. Some travel and some down time.

98L has my attention even though it has essentially been sitting and spinning for about 36 hours in the same place. The models are not bullish on this but we need to keep an eye on it.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Another local ??. I have been off for about 2 weeks. Some travel and some down time.

98L has my attention even though it has essentially been sitting and spinning for about 36 hours in the same place. The models are not bullish on this but we need to keep an eye on it.


Don't think it will curve before the Western Caribbean?

I think it will curve a little farther west than what Irene did, right over Hispaniola.
wow kman seeming to find more and more caymanains on here huh
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Another local ??. I have been off for about 2 weeks. Some travel and some down time.

98L has my attention even though it has essentially been sitting and spinning for about 36 hours in the same place. The models are not bullish on this but we need to keep an eye on it.
I was wondering where you were but I figured when needed you would be here. Outlookchkr but don't know where in Cayman they are.
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Think he means it could be Tropical Storm Ophelia by the time it is affecting the islands.
Quoting Hurricanes12:

It could affect in many ways, i didn't saw a direct hit, just in case, Water does a lot of damage down here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Think he means it could be Tropical Storm Ophelia by the time it is affecting the islands.
exactly, a most likely scenario if the models are right
Quoting PRweathercenter:

It could affect in many ways, i didn't saw a direct hit, just in case, Water does a lot of damage down here.
Looks set to go North of PR.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks set to go North of PR.


No, it doesn't.
TropicalAnalystwx13

Tried replying with the quote button but the blog seems to be messed up. The models take 98L just South of Haiti as a weak system. If that verifies then the Western Caribbean is a distinct possibility. Of course, the models are not good before we get a classified system so just something to watch for at the moment.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, it doesn't.

He needs glasses. Or geography class.
Quoting kmanislander:
TropicalAnalystwx13

Tried replying with the quote button but the blog seems to be messed up. The models take 98L just South of Haiti as a weak system. If that verifies then the Western Caribbean is a distinct possibility. Of course, the models are not good before we get a classified system so just something to watch for at the moment.


Wow, you have a lot of troubles with your quote button. ;P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

He needs glasses. Or geography class.


lol..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wow, you have a lot of troubles with your quote button. ;P




mine works
543 CaicosRetiredSailor "my *list* is at 231 and still growing. It works for me."

My list is at zero. Oddly the trolls disappear anyways.
Not sure what's up but every time I reload it says " done with errors on the page ".

Cannot use quote function.
Quoting kmanislander:
Not sure what's up but every time I reload it says " done with errors on the page ".

Cannot use quote function.




if you are on firefox ues chorm 14 mine works vary well on it
Quoting kmanislander:
Not sure what's up but every time I reload it says " done with errors on the page ".

Cannot use quote function.

Mine seems to work, too.
blog issues
Quoting Tazmanian:




mine works


Well, that is always a plus, Taz ;)
Quoting kmanislander:
Not sure what's up but every time I reload it says " done with errors on the page ".

Cannot use quote function.
Make sure that you are using the latest version of ie.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, that is always a plus, Taz ;)




yup
Quoting Tazmanian:




if you are on firefox ues chorm 14 mine works vary well on it

Chrome rules!
Quoting kmanislander:
Not sure what's up but every time I reload it says " done with errors on the page ".

Cannot use quote function.


Works fine with me on google chrome.

What browser are you using?
What browser are you using?
Quoting BDADUDE:
Make sure that you are using the latest version of ie.






IE sucks man



K MAN dont ues IE ues the best ones like firefox or google chrome they are the best but i like google chrome the best and firefox my 2nd pick
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What browser are you using?


on topic
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Chrome rules!


Amen!!!!
Quoting BDADUDE:
Make sure that you are using the latest version of ie.


Heck to the no.

GOOGLE CHROME ROCKS!
598. JLPR2
The only interesting thing that 98L is doing right now is pulling that band of convection from the east closer to itself.
Quoting Tazmanian:






IE sucks man



K MAN dont ues IE ues the best ones like firefox or google chrome they are the best but i like google chrome the best and firefox my 2nd pick


Taz on IE you can't see the whole comment, it gets cut off, it reloads when you quote, and the button seems to disappear.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Heck to the no.

GOOGLE CHROME ROCKS!
Should i try it?
google chrome is great but ie is aight i can use it fine
Quoting BDADUDE:
Should i try it?


Yes.
I'm tired of browser upgrades. Every time I do one my Roboform and Google toolbars don't work!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You always respond to several hour old posts :P
that is true lol

I love reading back since I'm usually not on here to see all of the interesting posts. Then I respond to them if I have something to contribute.


This post took a while to respond cuz I was working out
Back in a while. Trying to sort out browser problems
Quoting TomTaylor:
well I can't be on here all the time lol

And I love reading back since I'm usually not on here to see all of the interesting posts.


This post took a while to respond cuz I was working out

Fun :P
Quoting TomTaylor:
that is true lol

I love reading back since I'm usually not on here to see all of the interesting posts. Then I respond to them if I have something to contribute.


This post took a while to respond cuz I was working out

Good to know someone on this planet still exercises.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Good to know someone on this planet still exercises.


worked out for 4 hrs today haha
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Heck to the no.

GOOGLE CHROME ROCKS!




wish google chrome you have go too about too find out
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Good to know someone on this planet still exercises.


LOL.

You're not being really nice tonight are you? :P
oops soory
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fun :P
it can be a pain, but it's well worth it imo...boost in self-confidence, more respect from others, girls, etc etc lol
Still new posting to this blog, but I have a question. Can someone please tell me why nearly half the posts here are hidden? It's a PITA to unhide all of them everytime I want to lurk. TIA
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL.

You're not being really nice tonight are you? :P

LoL Do I sound mean? Sorry XD
Quoting weatherh98:


worked out for 4 hrs today haha
doing what??

I did like 2hrs today, can't imagine doing twice that lol
Not sure if anyone noticed but i think the Clevland Volcano in Alaska has had an explosive eruption, 5.8 in the vicinity and the lava dome has been growing sence september 3, just a guess.
Quoting TomTaylor:
it can be a pain, but it's well worth it imo...boost in self-confidence, more respect from others, girls, etc etc lol


+1
Quoting DJMedik91:
Still new posting to this blog, but I have a question. Can someone please tell me why nearly half the posts here are hidden? It's a PITA to unhide all of them everytime I want to lurk. TIA


Just change your fiter to "Show All".
Quoting DJMedik91:
Still new posting to this blog, but I have a question. Can someone please tell me why nearly half the posts here are hidden? It's a PITA to unhide all of them everytime I want to lurk. TIA
You are also hidden dude.
Quoting DJMedik91:
Still new posting to this blog, but I have a question. Can someone please tell me why nearly half the posts here are hidden? It's a PITA to unhide all of them everytime I want to lurk. TIA


Near the top of the comment sections, there is a little Filter thing. Yours should say SHOW AVERAGE if posts are hidden. If it does, change it to SHOW ALL.
Quoting TomTaylor:
doing what??

I did like 2hrs today, can't imagine doing twice that lol


worked out with varcity bball team and swam for 2 hrs always fun
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not sure if anyone noticed but i think the Clevland Volcano in Alaska has had an explosive eruption, 5.8 in the vicinity and the lava dome has been growing sence september 3, just a guess.

Cleveland Volcano lava dome may be growing
All I found.
Quoting TomTaylor:
it can be a pain, but it's well worth it imo...boost in self-confidence, more respect from others, girls, etc etc lol


LOL, yep, everybody should do it.

We need to get back on topic. :P

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LoL Do I sound mean? Sorry XD


lol XD
Quoting kmanislander:
Back in a while. Trying to sort out browser problems

good luck

...and I hope you aren't using IE lol
I could have sworn this was a weather blog.
I have 98L at 11N/37.5W ? , anyone else seeing the same thing?
Quoting DJMedik91:
Still new posting to this blog, but I have a question. Can someone please tell me why nearly half the posts here are hidden? It's a PITA to unhide all of them everytime I want to lurk. TIA


Has to do with your settings. May be a better way to get there, but if you go to "My Blog" then I believe it's edit blog or something like that, you can set to show "Average" comments, or all comments.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Near the top of the comment sections, there is a little Filter thing. Yours should say SHOW AVERAGE if posts are hidden. If it does, change it to SHOW ALL.


doesnt work
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have 98L at 11N/37.5W ? , anyone else seeing the same thing?


37.2W, 11.3N
Quoting weatherh98:


doesnt work


Ok.

It should say something like this in the URL:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=1933&filter=average

Even if it doesn't say "average", and just has a number, take out the whole thing from "&filter..."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


37.2W, 11.3N


11.3N,37.2W always do n first
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


37.2W, 11.3N


Nothing to disagree on there!
Quoting weatherh98:


11.3N,37.2W always do n first


Yeah, Yeah, same thing :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL.





lol XD
I know it sounds funny, but it's the truth man.

Try it out for yourself if you want. I wouldn't go too hard (I've heard lifting too much before you're fully grown can cause growth issues--how truthful that statement is is debatable, but obviously it's not something you want to risk) but you're what, 13? 14? That's old enough to start and if you can get in shape early on in high school that's pretty cool.

I didn't start lifting until early this summer (I'm a senior now) and I definitely wish I would have started earlier since it takes a while to build up muscle and it really is nicer and feels nicer being in-shape and fit rather than out of shape, weak, or whatever.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have 98L at 11N/37.5W ? , anyone else seeing the same thing?


That looks about right, perhaps slightly North of 11.
Dangerous Category 3 typhoon Roke is continuing to strengthen. Its eye is becoming more clear and circular, its deep convection in the eye-wall is wrapping around about half of the eye, which is more than roughly the quarter it had a few hours ago. It has very nice outflow on the eastern side of the system, although it looks like the western side is being hampered a bit by a combination of dry air and wind shear.

Likely a strong Cat. 3 right now, approaching Cat. 4.


Quoting weatherh98:


worked out with varcity bball team and swam for 2 hrs always fun
dang 2hr swim, that's a lotta work
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dangerous Category 3 typhoon Roke is continuing to strengthen. Its eye is becoming more clear and circular, its deep convection in the eye-wall is wrapping around about half of the eye, which is more than roughly the quarter it had a few hours ago. It has very nice outflow on the eastern side of the system, although it looks like the western side is being hampered a bit by a combination of dry air and wind shear.

Likely a strong Cat. 3 right now, approaching Cat. 4.



Roke is one cool-looking typhoon.
Roke and Sonca.

Japan's about to get smacked by Roke.


In the meanwhile,


LinkSWCATLOOP

Looks like EPac is going to pull off one more hurricane.

done for the day.
98L sure has a lot of stuff going on.
Quoting Ameister12:
Looks like EPac is going to pull off one more hurricane.


...and major hurricane.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Roke should be weakening and will make landfall in Japan as a strong tropical storm or minimal Typhoon.

60 kts. (70 mph)..I just don't see it weakening that much.

Quoting TomTaylor:

good luck

...and I hope you aren't using IE lol


Actually I am but it works now LOL
Typhoon Roke has done a nice amount of RI during the day.


Quoting kmanislander:


Actually I am but it works now LOL
ie rules
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually I am but it works now LOL


That's a big no-no. I HIGHLY recommend you try Google Chrome. If you don't like it, you can always uninstall it...But, you don't know what are missing.
98L is growing larger in size, and is embedded within a moist cyclonic gyre. A fair amount of rotation can be seen on satellite imagery.

RAMSDIS Floater
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Roke should be weakening and will make landfall in Japan as a strong tropical storm or minimal Typhoon.

60 kts. (70 mph)..I just don't see it weakening that much.


70 mph? How could they possibly see it weakening so much? I think Strong Cat1 or Cat2.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's a big no-no. I HIGHLY recommend you try Google Chrome. If you don't like it, you can always uninstall it...But, you don't know what are missing.


I just tried Chrome but whatever was messing up IE has gone away. Apparently a post by a particular blogger
...I used to trust the GFS...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


...and major hurricane.

I would enjoy another major hurricane. Epac Major Hurricanes this year have been very beautiful.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...I used to trust the GFS...
Me too.
Quoting Drakoen:
98L is growing larger in size, and is embedded within a moist cyclonic gyre. A fair amount of rotation can be seen on satellite imagery.

RAMSDIS Floater



Awwww! Look at 99L! Its so cute!

Its not finished yet either.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...I used to trust the GFS...
Also, it'll probably do so much damage the world economy will be beeepeeed.

98L
Quoting Tazmanian:




then your a nuthead then



IE sucks
To each his own I guess. Everybody is a nuthead in their own special way. It's what makes the world such an interesting place.
99L looks so pathetically cute! xD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL, yep, everybody should do it.

We need to get back on topic. :P


right.

here's a satellite image



Turn on the "HDW-high" on the satellite loop to check out the nice anticyclonic flow over 98L. Shear is also light to moderate and it has very nice divergence aloft thanks to that anticyclonic flow and the ULL to the north. The only real issues with this storm is the fact that it is a broad, elongated, entity struggling to maintain a significant convective complex for any amount of time over the center. This is noted by the lack of a strong mid level vortex (on CIMSS analysis) as well as satellite imagery (only seeing little popcorn thunderstorms, or lone cells, no large blobs or complexes over the center). My best guess for the reason this is occurring is poor low level convergence since low level moisture does appear to be high (according to SHIPS) and SSTs are warm enough.

Don't get me wrong there are plenty of thunderstorms firing up, indicating an unstable environment, and the cloud tops are cold. It's just these thunderstorms are not consolidated--yet. That should change based off satellite trends and the fact that we are headed toward dmax.

Another issue down the road will be that ULL to the north causing upper convergence aloft ahead of the system creating dry air. This can be seen already on satellite imagery by the large area of dry air in front of the storm.

This is sad.
Quoting TomTaylor:


right.

here's a satellite image



Turn on the "HDW-high" on the satellite loop to check out the nice anticyclonic flow over 98L. Shear is also light to moderate and it has very nice divergence aloft thanks to that anticyclonic flow and the ULL to the north. The only real issues with this storm is the fact that it is a broad, elongated, entity struggling to maintain a significant convective complex for any amount of time over the center. This is noted by the lack of a strong mid level vortex (on CIMSS analysis) as well as satellite imagery (only seeing little popcorn thunderstorms, or lone cells, no large blobs or complexes over the center). My best guess for the reason this is occurring is poor low level convergence since low level moisture does appear to be high (according to SHIPS) and SSTs are warm enough.

Another issue down the road will be that ULL to the north causing upper convergence aloft ahead of the system creating dry air. This can be seen already on satellite imagery by the large area of dry air in front of the storm.



Yeah, it'll face some problems on the way to the Lesser Antilles. Will probably be about the same strength and have the same appearance of Tropical Storm Maria as it was impacting the islands. 98L probably wont have favorable conditions after it affects the islands, thanks to wind shear from an Upper Trough/Low.
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually I am but it works now LOL
yikes

that's like reading in the dark. Have you tried downloading FF or Chrome? It's really easy, free and well worth it.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This is sad.


LOL! Looks like a real killer! ;-) Poor 99L, never had a chance.
wow, the ATCF/SHIPS FTP site is loading really fast on this laptop. Is it just me, or did they fix something?

It's always taken forever to load on any other computer I've used. Guess I'll have to use the laptop from now on.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yikes

that's like reading in the dark. Have you tried downloading FF or Chrome? It's really easy, free and well worth it.


I have Chrome as well. Will run it to see how it looks then decide
Quoting TomTaylor:
wow, the ATCF/SHIPS FTP site is loading really fast on this laptop. Is it just me, or did they fix something?

It's always taken forever to load on any other computer I've used. Guess I'll have to use the laptop from now on.


It's just you -.-
Quoting WoodyFL:
thunderstorms are firing up more and are starting to consolidate over the center more
Quoting kmanislander:


I have Chrome as well. Will run it to see how it looks then decide
it takes a little while to figure out where all the buttons are and get all your bookmarks/favorites in order, but after I got comfortable with it (which took like 2 minutes), I made the decision and never went back to IE.

It's faster, safer, and easier
Quoting TomTaylor:
it takes a little while to figure out where all the buttons are and get all your bookmarks/favorites in order, but after I got comfortable with it (which took like 2 minutes), I made the decision and never went back to IE.

It's faster, safer, and easier


Needs a home button.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This is sad.




thats old it say 8am on it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's just you -.-
Yeah on this laptop I can literally load any SHIPS text in half a second.

On the other computer it takes 5-10 seconds lol. Maybe it's because I'm on Firefox right now? idk what it is but it's awesome
Good Night. Well, not really:
I'm off for the night, Good night all.
Night All.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Needs a home button.




too show your Home button in google chrom goo to options then go down toobar then it show home button
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Cleveland Volcano lava dome may be growing
All I found.
The Observatory supports the lava dome growing sence sept 3.
Link

Look at the activity reports.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Night All.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm off for the night, Good night all.
night and night

I have to go eat dinner and then do hw, so I'm out for now as well. Later all. Nice to talk for once and not have trolls and political debates running at the same time

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not sure if anyone noticed but i think the Clevland Volcano in Alaska has had an explosive eruption, 5.8 in the vicinity and the lava dome has been growing sence september 3, just a guess.
This might cause some concern as well being as its the WORLDS LARGEST volcano http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/311696
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...I used to trust the GFS...


I seem to remember reading in a forecast discussion of Katia that they were going to stop issuing forecast points that crossed the Meridian for this very reason. :P
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The Observatory supports the lava dome growing sence sept 3.
Link

Look at the activity reports.
Go here you can actually watch the dome grow Link
Quoting nymore:
Go here you can actually watch the dome grow Link
0.0
Wow gona be quite the explosion.
Quoting Tazmanian:




too show your Home button in google chrom goo to options then go down toobar then it show home button



too late
Durn. Tropicalanalystwx13 and TomTaylor are leaving for the night. I'll hang out a bit and see what's going on. I need to catch up on the tropics.
i know why gfs dropped the carribean development. notice it takes 96E as a potent hurricane which forces the upward motion over the e pac meaning no carribean system FOR NOW
695. DDR
Seems the models have shifted a little south,im expecting some more rain starting Thursday.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
0.0
Wow gona be quite the explosion.
It could you should bookmark this site www.gi.alaska.edu/ lots of interesting info on everything from earthquakes to the northern lights
Fresh WINDSAT caught the left side of 98L..
698. DDR
The last thing we need right now is for Tambora to erupt again.
Quoting nymore:
It could you should bookmark this site www.gi.alaska.edu/
Yah thx. Looks like it may blow its top this week, if not that gona be quite the pressure build up.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Durn. Tropicalanalystwx13 and TomTaylor are leaving for the night. I'll hang out a bit and see what's going on. I need to catch up on the tropics.


I believe that little dot in the middle was 99L and the other on the lower right is 98L.

From Bryan Norcross..well lets pack up and go home, its been real!

The system between the Leewards and Africa is looking like it will soon be a depression and then Tropical Storm Ophelia. It has an opportunity to strengthen before it gets to the islands late week... but then the pattern becomes less favorable. The odds are increasing that hurricane season is over for much of the US coast including TX. Can't totally rule out a late-season storm - esp. South FL, NC, and New England - but the pattern is looking more like November for most...
702. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh WINDSAT caught the left side of 98L..


Seems like winds are increasing, I think I see a lonely 30knot wind barb.

*Scratch that, there are several of those.
703. JLPR2
Quoting WoodyFL:


I believe that little dot in the middle was 99L and the other on the lower right is 98L.



99L is so freaking cute LOL!
Watch it turn into a compact cat 5 out of pure fury for being called cute. xD
img src="">
Quoting JLPR2:


99L is so freaking cute LOL!
Watch it turn into a compact cat 5 out of pure fury for being called cute. xD


That would not be so cute, I think!! But it has been strange this year.
Quoting TomTaylor:


right.

here's a satellite image



Turn on the "HDW-high" on the satellite loop to check out the nice anticyclonic flow over 98L. Shear is also light to moderate and it has very nice divergence aloft thanks to that anticyclonic flow and the ULL to the north. The only real issues with this storm is the fact that it is a broad, elongated, entity struggling to maintain a significant convective complex for any amount of time over the center. This is noted by the lack of a strong mid level vortex (on CIMSS analysis) as well as satellite imagery (only seeing little popcorn thunderstorms, or lone cells, no large blobs or complexes over the center). My best guess for the reason this is occurring is poor low level convergence since low level moisture does appear to be high (according to SHIPS) and SSTs are warm enough.

Don't get me wrong there are plenty of thunderstorms firing up, indicating an unstable environment, and the cloud tops are cold. It's just these thunderstorms are not consolidated--yet. That should change based off satellite trends and the fact that we are headed toward dmax.

Another issue down the road will be that ULL to the north causing upper convergence aloft ahead of the system creating dry air. This can be seen already on satellite imagery by the large area of dry air in front of the storm.


looks like a big fart
GFDL & LGEM has taken the lead from LBAR for least model error for 98L. HWRF & all the models that begin with T are up in the fray for best as well.

High & low-lights 98L model error (nm). 0hr, 24hr & etc..

GFDL 12.2 56.2 -
LGEM 5.6 68.8 143.6
LBAR 5.6 81.9 208.6
HWRF 3.4 87.6 -
TVCA 7.2 84.9 -
TVCC 7.2 86.4 -
TVCE 7.2 87.4 -
TVCN 7.2 87.4 -

BAMM is doing okay, GFS not so hot, NOGAPS fails & CMC trails..

Intensity wise just about all the models forecast it to be 1-3 kts more than it was 24hrs out.

Quoting JLPR2:


Seems like winds are increasing, I think I see a lonely 30knot wind barb.

*Scratch that, there are several of those.


It was more put together (atleast on that side) than I was expecting..shows a west wind. Hope OSCAT gets a good pass tonight.



Models are not showing much with 98L! Looks like Shear will keep 98L in check!
710. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:


It was more put together (atleast on that side) than I was expecting..shows a west wind. Hope OSCAT gets a good pass tonight.


Yeah, I'm crossing my fingers it does. Otherwise we would be in the dark and would have to wait till tomorrow's pass to hopefully see the LLC. :\
TRMM caught the eye wall & North on ROKE.
Quoting nofailsafe:


I seem to remember reading in a forecast discussion of Katia that they were going to stop issuing forecast points that crossed the Meridian for this very reason. :P
At least it is not a court jester like the NOGAPS :P
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2011 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 29:19:32 N Lon : 131:39:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 930.6mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +9.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : EYE
em>Four earthquakes struck the southeastern part of Guatemala in less than two hours Monday afternoon, causing at least one death as some walls collapsed, authorities said. At least three people were reported missing. President Alvaro Colom urged calm after the temblors were felt across much of the Central American country, the largest a 5.8 magnitude. All were centered in an area about 30 miles southeast of the capital, Guatemala City, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. "There is no reason to think there will be anything bigger," Colom said at a news conference. He said all rescue forces and government agencies had been activated to deal with the aftermath. USGS geophysicist Rafael Abreu said all four quakes were connected to the same fault running through the area. A 38-year-old woman, Floridalma Divas Escobar, died when a wall fell down in her house in Cuilapa, the epicenter and one of the areas most effected, said Mariano Laz, spokesman for the local Volunteer Fire Department. Colom said there were at least three people missing and others injured, though he didn't say how many or in what locations. Besides Cuilapa, the areas of Santa Maria Inhuatan and Oratorio were most affected, Guatemala's seismology institute said. Public buildings were evacuated and school classes canceled. Many people camped out in tents Monday night because of damage to their homes or worries about further quakes. The quakes also caused landslides along the main highway to El Salvador, and at least one car was buried, authorities said. The largest quake hit about 12:34 local time, a half hour after a 4.8-magnitude temblor. Another 4.8-magnitude quake hit at about 1:20 p.m. A fourth of 4.5-magnitude was reported in an area south of the others at 2:30 p.m. The depths of the quakes varied from 23 miles to 38 miles.
we had a early season and with the northerly componant to the winds here in swfl over the last week seasons over for us
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, I'm crossing my fingers it does. Otherwise we would be in the dark and would have to wait till tomorrow's pass to hopefully see the LLC. :\


OSCAT caught the other piece..the right side of 98L. That wave behind it is trying to tap it..being downright disruptive.
Coming off Africa..
Violent storms across Italy that led to four deaths over the weekend caused damage and disruption on air, port and city transport systems on Monday, officials said. Six underground subway stations in the capital Rome that were closed due to flooding overnight disrupting the morning rush hour reopened in the early afternoon. Buses took travellers between stops. Palermo airport on the island of Sicily was forced to close for 40 minutes after a tornado whipped a Falcon 2000 aircraft off the runway, throwing it against police and emergency vehicles. The storm also ripped free the 'Suprema' ferry from its moorings at Palermo port, causing a small boat nearby to sink before running into an English destroyer, the Monmouth, which was undamaged. Train traffic was disrupted in the Naples region causing delays and regional train cancellations. In the town of Canepina, north of Rome, more than a third of the central square caved in after it was undermined by water. In northern Italy, snow and falling trees closed five mountain passes. On Sunday, two hikers were found dead in a landslide, while a 72-year-old German tourist died after falling into a ravine and a man in his 40s from Milan was struck by lightning. After several days of unseasonally high temperatures, weather conditions took a turn for the worse in the north of the country on Saturday gradually moving south on Sunday.
The rain has moved out of Texas, across La, and into my area in Ms today. We received a very light shower. I am so ready for some cool, crispy weather.....maybe soon...:)

Quoting HurricanePookie:


Has to do with your settings. May be a better way to get there, but if you go to "My Blog" then I believe it's edit blog or something like that, you can set to show "Average" comments, or all comments.


I've tried changing the filter at the top to show all to no avail. Do I need to make a blog to do this?

Sorry I cant quote everyone, but thanks for the help WUbloggers! Sounds like a Star Trek species.... Lol
Record shattering flooding...Floods claim 57 lives as rain wreaks havoc in China


Eye~ I'm hoping it brings me rain..
Quoting DJMedik91:


I've tried changing the filter at the top to show all to no avail. Do I need to make a blog to do this?

Sorry I cant quote everyone, but thanks for the help WUbloggers! Sounds like a Star Trek species.... Lol


I have noticed if I change my filter for any reason, and I go back to show all....it never shows all till I go back and click on the Jeff Master's Blog again. It's worth a try ")
20/0232 UTC 29.2N 131.8E T6.0/6.0 ROKE -- West Pacific
Quoting Skyepony:
Coming off Africa..


Skye, that image is awesome..... What Sat is that?
Quoting Skyepony:
Record shattering flooding...Floods claim 57 lives as rain wreaks havoc in China


Eye~ I'm hoping it brings me rain..


Hopefully it will :)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I have noticed if I change my filter for any reason, and I go back to show all....it never shows all till I go back and click on the Jeff Master's Blog again. It's worth a try ")


Thanks! I'll give that a shot. Hopefully it works on my smartphone. I rarely use my computer anymore.
My computer died last night, so I'm having to use a different one. I've lost all the links I had to the models. I'd appreciate it a lot of someone can post those links for me. I wish I could remember exactly what pages I had, but I'll be grateful for anything similar.
728. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:


OSCAT caught the other piece..the right side of 98L. That wave behind it is trying to tap it..being downright disruptive.


Good old 97L. :)
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
My computer died last night, so I'm having to use a different one. I've lost all the links I had to the models. I'd appreciate it a lot of someone can post those links for me. I wish I could remember exactly what pages I had, but I'll be grateful for anything similar.
Link
Link
Link
Link
see if these help
Quoting BDADUDE:
ie rules
ie blows
Quoting Tazmanian:




wish google chrome you have go too about too find out
Taz - stick with firefox
Quoting WoodyFL:


I believe that little dot in the middle was 99L and the other on the lower right is 98L.



I see that none of the GFS runs today, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z develop 98L much. Or anything else. I'll stay up a bit and see what the 00Z run shows.
Quoting lottotexas:
Link
Link
Link
Link
see if these help


Thanks, lotto!
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
My computer died last night, so I'm having to use a different one. I've lost all the links I had to the models. I'd appreciate it a lot of someone can post those links for me. I wish I could remember exactly what pages I had, but I'll be grateful for anything similar.


Here is a good Link
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
My computer died last night, so I'm having to use a different one. I've lost all the links I had to the models. I'd appreciate it a lot of someone can post those links for me. I wish I could remember exactly what pages I had, but I'll be grateful for anything similar.
Go to Levi32's blog all kinds of links on his page he is post 68 on this blog
Quoting hunkerdown:
Taz - stick with firefox




LOL



nop

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Here is a good Link
WOW :)
Quoting DJMedik91:


I've tried changing the filter at the top to show all to no avail. Do I need to make a blog to do this?

Sorry I cant quote everyone, but thanks for the help WUbloggers! Sounds like a Star Trek species.... Lol
You have to log out and come back sometimes to get things to work. Might try that.
Quoting TravisBickle:

WOW :)


LOL....I have a lot of things saved....too much to keep up with...., but I did recently try to organize...somewhat...;}
Time for bed, goodnight and sleep well all...:))

Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



nop


Looks like you had a fun raft trip Taz!
There is a pretty good chance we will have a Tropical Depression out of 98L, perhaps as early as tomorrow. Link

Quoting DJMedik91:


Skye, that image is awesome..... What Sat is that?


Eumetsat..Day Microphysics.


JLPR2~ May twist up enough tomorrow to break away.

Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Looks like you had a fun raft trip Taz!




yes a littl too march fun now am geting that fun sadnes


been feeling a liitle happy and a little fun sadnes the soon after the tip on sunday
Another view of 98L from Nasa Satellite



Thanks for the great links, everyone! I really appreciate the help.
A good DMAX for 98L should do the trick.
Quoting hunkerdown:
Taz - stick with firefox

Chrome is tight.. I only use Firefox because my internet marketing job uses lots of add-ons..
I notice 98 took a large step backwards. Sweet. May it never cross 40W.
night all
751. JLPR2
753. JLPR2


1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

And with that I'm out.
Goodnight.
99L is trying to make a comeback... though I doubt it'll make it.

And that storm off of the Maritime provinces has been spinning there for a while, it looks like a post-tropical system that just got cut off, perhaps the remnants of Maria's circulation drifted back down again.
20/0545 UTC 11.2N 37.7W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic
The ghost of 99 seems to be waking up this morning. Not a fan. Needs a stake through the heart.
760. ackee
99L seem like its coming back to life small system like these could devlop quickly 98L see for the frist time this seasons more souther track may be the windrard ISland this time around the GFDL track and intensity foor this look scary if it comes throught
morning
looking at early visible sat pics of 98L it appears to be me that the system is now tropical storm Ophelia, and i expect van upgrade at 8 am
A definate trend:
13 of the last 14 years - or 15 of the last 17 years - have all had 10 or more named storms. Which is unprecidented.

And of course, this year ain't over yet...

Morning, all! 98 is looking interesting.
Quoting mikatnight:


Morning,Mik. That really brings 05 into perspective. That was a year... 05 and 08 reminded Louisiana that hurricanes really do come here, and not just the smaller ones.
Where might we expect 90L?
#765 -
Unwelcome reminders to be sure. Yet even still, people remain oblivious to the dangers. I live just across the street from the Intracoastal Waterway, and have had more than one neighbor exclaim they wouldn't evacuate for anything less than a Cat. 4. They are more than a little surprised when I tell them a landfalling Cat. 1 in the right spot would put anywhere from 1 - 4 feet of water in their house. Despite that, they remain unconvinced.

Oh, and good morning!
Good morning.

More of the same here as rain today is on tap for PR as the trough lingers around.
Quoting mikatnight:
#765 -
Unwelcome reminders to be sure. Yet even still, people remain oblivious to the dangers. I live just across the street from the Intracoastal Waterway, and have had more than one neighbor exclaim they wouldn't evacuate for anything less than a Cat. 4. They are more than a little surprised when I tell them a landfalling Cat. 1 in the right spot would put anywhere from 1 - 4 feet of water in their house. Despite that, they remain unconvinced.

Oh, and good morning!


From 1776 to 1811, over the course of about thirty-five years, ten hurricanes hit New Orleans, causing great damage. Can you imagine the same today? Spending this morning doing a little research.
NOAA HFIP model shows 3 nice lookin storms off the coast of Africa. One is 98L.
Interesting reading.

September 14-17th, 1839: This storm struck Charley's Lake (later named Charleston, then Lake Charles). An "appearance of rain" was noted in the T. Rigmaiden Diary on the 14th. Rain began on the 15th with a "hard wind". Rainfall increased in intensity on the 16th. By the 17th, the rain and wind subsided, while cloudiness lingered.


June 19th-23rd, 1840: Another reference to a tropical storm appears in the diary in June of the next year. An "all day rain" began on the 19th and continued for days. Wind increased by the 21st, as corn was "blown down in the field". The center of the cyclone passed to the west of Charley's Lake (Charleston, Lake Charles), as a "hard south wind" blew through the area. Rain continued until the 23rd.

Quoting stoormfury:
morning
looking at early visible sat pics of 98L it appears to be me that the system is now tropical storm Ophelia, and i expect van upgrade at 8 am
i ex[ext them to upgrade it to ophelio and forcast it to hit pr. in 4 days but by tommorow i except them to have it as just a tropical wave
"Dying is easy; comedy is hard."
(Old Hollywood Saying)
awww. Flood waters going down?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
NOAA HFIP model shows 3 nice lookin storms off the coast of Africa. One is 98L.
whats the other 2?
Could be TD 16 by 11 AM

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the rest of September
Ocean temperatures are starting to decline in the North Atlantic, though remain much above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. The latest departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average plot (Figure 2) shows a large area of ocean temperatures near 1°C above average. The water temperatures were 0.8°C above average in this region during August, which is the 4th highest such reading on record. These warm waters will allow for an above-average chance of African tropical waves developing through early October. By early October, the African Monsoon typically begins to wane, spawning fewer tropical waves that tend to be weaker, and we should stop seeing development of newly-emerged tropical waves off the coast of Africa.

could be a race for the o storm between old 99 and 98
In terms of the U.S with a huge trof progged by the globals this thing will get shunted to the NE sooner rather then later as many this season.

Could come close to some of the islands before its turned.
Off to school and then another workshop. Everyone have a great Tuesday!
Quoting islander101010:
could be a race for the o storm between old 99 and 98



99L is gone
Good Morning All.

What happened to Post-99L? It has convection now, and looks decent! See:



All I will say about 98L is...

Tropical Depression Sixteen: COMING SOON

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Quoting Tazmanian:



99L is gone



Not quite.
Quoting hurricane23:
In terms of the U.S with a huge trof progged by the globals this thing will get shunted to the NE sooner rather then later as many this season.

Could come close to some of the islands before its turned.

You're not the only one who thinks this way!


Quoting Chicklit:

You're not the only one who thinks this way!




Only the GFS and GFDL initialized it right, so I'm discounting all the others...

Its not moving NW, its moving W
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Not quite.




yes it has come back but un less they re put 99L up you have too call it EX 99L
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes it may hae come back but un less they re put 99L up you have too call it EX 99L


you don't "have to".
They're being very stubborn with 98L:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N38W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 31W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 35W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N-18N ALONG 17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. EXAMINING RECENT UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM BAMAKO MALI...THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED AROUND 18/1200 UTC AND IS POISED TO FULLY PASS DAKAR SENEGAL...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
17W-20W.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


you don't "have to".



so ture
06Z GFDL has a hurricane at 15N - 72W....
797. SLU
TADAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!

20/1145 UTC 11.7N 36.7W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
so if the current steering pattern holds through the season any system that forms over the NW Carribbean would move towards South Florida Like Wilma
SLU
my take on 98L earlier this morning was 40 mph ophelia
98L/ OPHELIA should increase in foreward speed sometime today
802. SLU
869

WHXX01 KWBC 201229

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1229 UTC TUE SEP 20 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110920 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110920 1200 110921 0000 110921 1200 110922 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 37.5W 12.4N 40.5W 12.9N 44.2W 13.1N 48.4W

BAMD 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.4W 12.8N 41.5W 13.6N 43.7W

BAMM 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.6W 12.7N 42.2W 13.2N 44.9W

LBAR 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.0W 13.0N 41.0W 14.2N 43.5W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200 110925 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.7N 52.9W 10.8N 60.9W 9.7N 67.0W 10.4N 70.6W

BAMD 14.4N 45.9W 16.4N 49.6W 18.5N 52.8W 19.6N 54.8W

BAMM 13.6N 47.6W 14.8N 52.2W 16.9N 56.6W 18.7N 60.5W

LBAR 15.3N 46.2W 17.9N 51.7W 21.4N 56.2W 23.7N 58.3W

SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS 45KTS

DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS 45KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 37.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
803. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU
my take on 98L earlier this morning was 40 mph ophelia


To me it still looks a little ragged to be called a tropical storm. It needs a burst of convection near the center 1st. But this is certainly at least a TD now.
804. 7544
morning all looks like 98l will be a td or ts sometime today and ex99.looking good could that one surpise us

note now the gfdl has 98l as hurricane at 15n 72 west will it get just below dr then turn n or ne toward fla possibly a fay track with the trofs coming down . this one would . could be all about timimg and fla should keep one eye on this one .
Morning all! Our little invests look like they survived through the night. Definitely bears watching.
806. MTWX
99L's rotation looks really good on visible, but all of the convection is popping well to the east of the center.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
so if the current steering pattern holds through the season any system that forms over the NW Carribbean would move towards South Florida Like Wilma
Especially with the number of troughs we have been having..Florida gets whacked in October than any other state..I have been through a few myself.
the multi layer steering takes 98L/td16 west or slightly north of west the next 4 days close to the central windward islands
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like 98l will be a td or ts sometime today and ex99.looking good could that one surpise us

note now the gfdl has 98l as hurricane at 15n 72 west will it get just below dr then turn n or ne toward fla possibly a fay track with the trofs coming down . this one would . could be all about timimg and fla should keep one eye on this one .



this with the monster trof off the east coast this week will be a sea rider ...this will not affect the united states..once again saved by the TROF..
ALERT ATCF MIL 98X XXX 110920060000
2011092006
11.3 322.3
11.3 319.2
100
11.3 322.3
201000
1109201000
1
WTNT21 KNGU 201000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 37.7W TO 11.3N 40.8W OVER THE
NEXT 24HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25KTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0815Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 037.7W MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
2. A 1008MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 11N37W, OR APPROXIMATELY 1300NM EAST OF WINWARD ISLANDS,
AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE AS OF 20/0545Z IS CURRENTLY T1.5/1.5.
WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE MARGINAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 84 TO 88 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EXIST IN THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING, CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 211000Z.//9811091700 99N 369W 15
9811091706 99N 364W 15
9811091712 100N 358W 20
9811091718 104N 353W 20
9811091800 110N 350W 20
9811091806 117N 350W 25
9811091812 120N 357W 25
9811091818 119N 362W 25
9811091900 117N 367W 25
9811091906 117N 372W 25
9811091912 111N 372W 25
9811091918 108N 364W 25
9811092000 113N 372W 25
9811092006 113N 377W 25

Been Watching 98l, I think it will become a min TS
sometime tomorrow. But its forward speed and dry air ahead will not allow for much intensification, therefore possibly keeping it on the more southerly track into carib. We will see what happens. JMO
Glad we have something to watch into the weekend.
98L will be pulled North and NE out to sea like Maria and the previous storms. The GFDL has been WAY off this year with a very left bias. The only chance for a Florida storm this year will be in October when pressures lower in the Carib and the upward MJO returns. So far no hints of anything forming in this region from the long range GFS. Looks like a 10-14 day lull until the October action begins.
Good Morning. Per CIMSS there are a few bands of moderately high sheer on the NE quadrant of the system at the moment so I am not too sure that we will have a TD by today unless it stays below it or the sheer wanes off a bit over the next 48 hours. Just my opinion.

Link
Quoting coffeecrusader:
98L will be pulled North and NE out to sea like Maria and the previous storms. The GFDL has been WAY off this year with a very left bias. The only chance for a Florida storm this year will be in October when pressures lower in the Carib and the upward MJO returns. So far no hints of anything forming in this region from the long range GFS. Looks like a 10-14 day lull until the October action begins.
And the upward phase of the MJO should be in our region of the world during October, when there is a second round of increased activity... Link
816. MTWX
99L is trying really hard to pull something off. Link
Quoting hurricane23:
In terms of the U.S with a huge trof progged by the globals this thing will get shunted to the NE sooner rather then later as many this season.

Could come close to some of the islands before its turned.
thats why watching the nw carib development is important
818. JLPR2
Quoting MTWX:
99L is trying really hard to pull something off. Link


Seems like it wants some attention.
deleted, meant to to temporarily store some coordinates then reflexively posted.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
98L will be pulled North and NE out to sea like Maria and the previous storms. The GFDL has been WAY off this year with a very left bias. The only chance for a Florida storm this year will be in October when pressures lower in the Carib and the upward MJO returns. So far no hints of anything forming in this region from the long range GFS. Looks like a 10-14 day lull until the October action begins.



+10000
Quoting MTWX:
99L is trying really hard to pull something off. Link
Tenacious little thing.....I think it wants a shot at da title...
Quoting MTWX:
99L is trying really hard to pull something off. Link



YES SHES TRYING TO PULL OFF HER CLOTHES...
Long time listener, first time caller: surprised to see strong low-level circulation near the canadian maritimes this morning now that the deep convection is gone...must be deep extratropical or you guys missed one!
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
23/1200Z ON A SYSTEM NEAR 13.5N 54.0W.
G'day all.
Well fire season has started with a bang. as of today, there is 47 bush fires burning in NSW.
2 are burning the Blue mountains west of Sydney. there is also a bush fire burning in the SW suburbs of Sydney that closed the main highway to Canberra and Melbourne. Today's weather conditions were very ugly and ripe for fire ignition. Sustained wind were 50km/h(31mph) gusting up to 80-100km/h(50-62mph). A almost completed sports Stadium in Woolongong south of Sydney has sustained damage and is on the verge of collapse.









This is what everyone in NSW was dreading, Last year there was only a few bush fires due to the inclement weather, and flooding. This has caused the undergrowth to become a cinder pot waiting to explode.

I will post more info when it comes to hand.


How is Texas and Florida going with there bush fires?
Puerto Rico NWS Discussion

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND THE ECMWF COMPUTER
MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ONLY AS AN OPEN
WAVE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAY TUNED.
Interesting to see if this trough off our coast could turn in to something..a lot of rain being predicted for eastern NC..

Quoting ncstorm:
Interesting to see if this trough off our coast could turn in to something..a lot of rain being predicted for eastern NC..





What might the blue/purple off TX/LA, be that we don't see? Be nice if a cut-off something span up, ran south and strengthened, then drifted back to S TX.
830. MTWX
Wow either something is wrong, or noone is on the blog right now!
EVERYONE WAKE UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
well i see everyone has officially left...