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Invest 98L or a nor'easter?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009

Hi, it's Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Dr. Masters today.

Take a look at the satellite image below:


Fig. 1 GOES IR composite at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

What do you see? (This is like a Rorschach test for meteorologists) Well, it's got a comma head with what looks like a front extending southward. It must be a nor'easter with some pretty good precipitation bands from NY into New England. There are also plenty of coastal flood advisories out to make it seem like fall/winter. Right?


Fig. 1 Plot of severe weather advisories made at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

Well, that's not quite the right answer. For 4 hours earlier today, this low was known as INVEST98L. I have to admit that this designation caught me by surprise. Looking at the QUIKSCAT passes and SSMI data in the dark hours of the morning (I work in the SF office), I saw an elongated cyclone that looked it had a front extending southward. That meant the feature was maybe subtropical at best, and more than likely extratropical given the model analyses available. So, color me surprised when I found out about INVEST98L and even more surprised about it's short lifespan.

Moving on and taking at look at the tropical Atlantic, there's not much in the way of tropical waves to look at on satellite except for the fresh cluster that just moved off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how that wave will develop.

Rob

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Rob
Thanks for the update...
The robust -AO is clearly responsible for the deep Midwest trough. The natural regression of the Bermuda ridge means that the circulation will be forcing waves toward FL/EGOM. I am a bit skeptical about some TC development next week as African systems are failing to develop once off the coast...combination of dust and some shear probably. We're still about 3 + weeks away from raising my interests.

One thing of note is that I am going to be watching for areas of High pressure > 1030 mb to build into the US late AUG...if true, circulations are such that low pressure should form underneath , depending on the location of course.

Adrian
A Nor'easter in July!?
Thanks for the update! Clearly a noreaster. 29% of the way through hurricane season and all's well!
hey rob i believe 98l was the fastest invest in the east at 4 hrs 13 minutes from start to finish

not sure on that

thanks for the update
Quoting hurricane23:
The robust -AO is clearly responsible for the deep Midwest trough. The natural regression of the Bermuda ridge means that the circulation will be forcing waves toward FL/EGOM. I am a bit skeptical about some TC development next week as African systems are failing to develop once off the coast...combination of dust and some shear probably. We're still about 3 weeks away from raising my interests.

One thing of note is that I am going to be watching for areas of High pressure > 1030 mb to build into the US late AUG...if true, circulations are such that low pressure should form underneath , depending on the location of course.

Adrian


Negative AO weakens the tradewinds and weakens the upper level westerlies favoring tropical cyclone development. The AO is forecast to become more negative as we head into august.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?
as strange as it may be
Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal
Thanks for the update Dr. Carver. Must say that I really like your writing style and how you make it really easy for anyone to understand.
Quoting MrSea:
Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal
we bit rough for ya lets hope its not a sign of some thing bigger down the line a ways to come and we do know the express is long overdue
Thx Dr. C
cant disagree...looks like a hatteras low to me. Has all the standard characteristics.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
cant disagree...looks like a hatteras low to me. Has all the standard characteristics.


Oh yea im right in this thing. Its freezing. 63.8 degrees and falling. dewpoint was 71 this morning but 63 now, this storm has wiped out the tropical airmass, it hasnt reinforced it. definitely nontropical
Glad the tropics are quiet on the anniversary of Dolly hitting SPI, TX.
Go Dawgs!
Good Evening,
Thank you Dr. Carver and also you MrSea in Long Island. Both very interesting. I love to know what's going on weatherwise in other areas. Coffee weather for sure. Stay safe.
Quoting MrSea:
Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal




pulling away now your on the southern edge of precip shield
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




pulling away now your on the southern edge of precip shield


Yea but winds are still increasing and the pressure is still falling. more signs that its non tropical


Not looking too impressive at the moment except for the convection. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?


It's bound to be linked to GW. *ducking*
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?


Looks very similar to the March 1-3 Snowstorm.
maybe thats what 09 will be

the year of the nor'easters
Hi guys! Looks like the NE is in for some wet weather!
I can't help but thinking that it so quiet....to quiet.......like we are going to get slamed in August and September.
Rob thank you for the late update out from the West Coast, good to know!
good night everyone could this be our next invest 99l
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N29W TO 09N27W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH CLOUD MOTIONS
SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW NEAR 14N28W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE SFC...THOUGH WINDS
ARE GENERALLY WEAK. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE SUPPRESSED BY SAHARAN DUST.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good night everyone could this be our next invest 99l
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N29W TO 09N27W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH CLOUD MOTIONS
SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW NEAR 14N28W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE SFC...THOUGH WINDS
ARE GENERALLY WEAK. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE SUPPRESSED BY SAHARAN DUST.



For them to mention it this early out, then the NHC might be hinting at possible development once the dust is out of the way.

Anna in the making?? stay tuned....
Has anyone else noticed the 75F SST patches in the western Pacific, in the midst of the widespread area of 31C SSTs? This is likely erroneous, but it's on the wunderground's SST map on the tropical page.

Just thought it was interesting. We have not had any tropical cyclones to cause upwelling in that area, so it struck me as odd to see that.
Quoting Funkadelic:


For them to mention it this early out, then the NHC might be hinting at possible development once the dust is out of the way.

Anna in the making?? stay tuned....
more like dust in the wind
So Dr. Carver are you calling it a NorEaster or not.....i don't know!
That area is actually 33 C Koritheman.
Perhaps a typhoon will feast on that and put typhoon Tip into second place ;)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
Nor'easter in July...Who'd a thunk it?!
The noreaster low appears to be heading for between Brentwood and Brookhaven
They had black patches on the map, because the were 33 C and the top of the temperature scale used is 32 C. Why they put in the yellow patches as an edit I'm not sure. I think they should use a lighter pink.
Evening kids - should i call my brother and tell him lousy weather is on it's way...oh wait -i think he's got it already on long island.

Hope everyone is well...
Here's what JB at ACCUWEATHER is saying tonight.


THURSDAY 11:30 PM
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING S NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS


The data buoy 23 s of Montauk has had wind gusts to 42.7 kts and Block Island is now gusting near gale force

Here is the wind profile at the data buoy showing the rapid ramp up as the center approaches, typical of tight warm core system with strong winds near its center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44017&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4& time_label=EDT

That the origin of this in the low levels was an African wave certainly is a factor in how it is trying to develop as the heat of a long journey through the tropics is adding to the storm.


I dont know if the average person can appreciate what is going on here. While this is not named, in my lifetime, the only storm to force gale warnings in the New England coastal waters in July that I can remember was Bertha in July of 1996.

But think about this... this is causing, for New England, more wind and rain than Charley in 2004 which made its final landfall on the New England coast, though not many people had much with it. I certainly understand why TPC is not naming this, but I would understand if they had.


This is the second non named system to come from waters over 25c and cause tropical storm conditions on the coast, to not get classified. The first one was Friday night of memorial day weekend on the Alabama coast.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's what JB at ACCUWEATHER is saying tonight.


THURSDAY 11:30 PM
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING S NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS


The data buoy 23 s of Montauk has had wind gusts to 42.7 kts and Block Island is now gusting near gale force

Here is the wind profile at the data buoy showing the rapid ramp up as the center approaches, typical of tight warm core system with strong winds near its center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44017&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4& time_label=EDT

That the origin of this in the low levels was an African wave certainly is a factor in how it is trying to develop as the heat of a long journey through the tropics is adding to the storm.


I dont know if the average person can appreciate what is going on here. While this is not named, in my lifetime, the only storm to force gale warnings in the New England coastal waters in July that I can remember was Bertha in July of 1996.

But think about this... this is causing, for New England, more wind and rain than Charley in 2004 which made its final landfall on the New England coast, though not many people had much with it. I certainly understand why TPC is not naming this, but I would understand if they had.


This is the second non named system to come from waters over 25c and cause tropical storm conditions on the coast, to not get classified. The first one was Friday night of memorial day weekend on the Alabama coast.


Interesting stuff and he does have a point
JB is the biggest Hypecaster of all... its entertainment for everyone. I do like JB....dont get me wrong....and he does have knowledge...but he lets his hype overtake his forecasting..makes that his forecasting...
btw...this wasnt close to being a tropical or subtropical storm....xtratrop...ok 50% on that...this is just a typical cold core low with some warming that took place near VA @ the start..but it quickly became cold-core.

Now the memorial day system in Alabama...was probably a Tropical Storm..
looks lively along the ITCZ tonight...
turninandburnin

thanks dr. rob for the 'flash' update!
funny you hadn't noticed it...lol.
coming from connecticut shore, summer storms were always the best!


Wind Shear.. zippo... nada
Quoting TaminFLA:
I can't help but thinking that it so quiet....to quiet.......like we are going to get slamed in August and September.


Yeah, that is what it seems like here too. Been so quiet in the Gulf and some HOT waters. Seems like like one day we will wake up and there it is......questions is...how strong.
The wave coming off africa now looks like the next invest.
Evening,

Still waiting for Ana entering late July in this so far quiet season, but the ITCZ is ganing latitude and that's will finaly kick off 2009 huricane season. If el Niño does't pick up and stay a weak El niño we will have many stroms to track. 00z GFS try to develop a TC in the EATL in 36-96 hrs time frame and looking the Sat loops of and the conditions in the tropical atlantic below 20N we could have 99L in 24 hrs.
Quoting stormsurge39:
The wave coming off africa now looks like the next invest.
not till it gets to 25w and persists more than 12 hrs
What about that persistent little blob around 25N 73W... Also noticed that the 2AM discussion has yet to be released...But I dought if anyway is on this blog anyway...Buenos Noches
50. 7544
Quoting hurricanefiend85:
What about that persistent little blob around 25N 73W... Also noticed that the 2AM discussion has yet to be released...But I dought if anyway is on this blog anyway...Buenos Noches


and its in less shear /? lloks to be moving south ?
good morning melb. fl. nws discussion noted the persistant trough is suppose to retrograde west allowing the ridge to pushinto florida s florida could be vulnerable to a west moving tropical system
Quoting leftovers:
good morning melb. fl. nws discussion noted the persistant trough is suppose to retrograde west allowing the ridge to pushinto florida s florida could be vulnerable to a west moving tropical system


Not to mention that a persistent ridge in that area will aid in heating the SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, due to southerly flow on the western periphery of said ridge.
you know, I was hoping to get at least some rain out of this system, but its had a fairly defined "cut off line" on the western side= new york didnt get any rain like they were calling for.
Looks like the Boyz on the Cape & North got some big waves.....
Nada here in SWFL -Gulf is as flat as it gets.... the rising sun greets The East Coast Surfers with some fun looking waves. Gulf Temp 89

Last night I said "Thinking East of Florida for development soon, real soon, sweeps to the straights, and crawls back towards coat as it moves NNW as a Cat 1 or two". This morning I feel that this BLOB will sink to extreme south east Bahama chain and loop up north and crawl back towards Florida as something between a Depression and weak Hurricane; this whole process should take 3.5 days
I like Rob's style at the end of the blog! :)

"Nuthin' to see here people, move along now." :)
trying to post gfs...not sure how its done...here's the link

Link
Looks like a blob has broken free from that "Nor'easter" and is heading south from 24N - 71W.

Still very warm waters right there and the shear seems to be dropping a bit, looks like it's trying to coalesce and develop some convection. With it's current position in the steering currents, the GoM may not have closed one of its doors hard enough....

Hmmmm...

You know, since everyone else is watching that African wave, I'll keep an eye on this one for ya'll just in case.
Good Morning Folks.........That little "blob" near the Bahamas looks interesting this am. Looks like a classic trof/frontal remnant and sheer is low and waters are warm around it right now.....Will have to see if it can persist after fully separating from the flow to it's North.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Looks like a blob has broken free from that "Nor'easter" and is heading south from 24N - 71W.

Still very warm waters right there and the shear seems to be dropping a bit, looks like it's trying to coalesce and develop some convection. With it's current position in the steering currents, the GoM may have not closed one of its doors hard enough....

Hmmmm...

You know, since everyone else is watching that African wave, I'll keep an eye on this one for ya'll just in case.


Good Morning Oz; looks like we were on the same page as we both typed...
I went beyond looking at the short-term this morning and took a look at long-term prospects for the next 7-14 days and I think we may want to
watch an area from just east of the Bahamas westward through the Bahamas and then westward from there into the Gulf of Mexico. The reason for
this is because the overall pattern is looking favorable for close-in development as a high pressure system builds westward; in fact the 7 to
10 day 500 millibar forecast shows the mean trough shifting back to the west and allowing for a ridge of high pressure to extend westward to
the northeast Gulf of Mexico, so what this means is that any approaching tropical disturbances will #1 be in a much more favorable
environment and #2 will have a much harder time curving out into the open Atlantic and pushing
further west. None of the forecast guidance is forecasting any tropical development for the next 7 to 10 days in the western Atlantic,
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, however, this should be taken with a grain of salt as the models sometimes do not pick up on close
in development and looking at the pattern over the next 10 days, I think we will need to watch things closely from the southwest Atlantic
westward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Beat 'cha by 1 minute WWbe! :)

Does that mean I get to give it a "pre-invest" name (i.e. Ralph.)

If so, I'll name it Buzz.

So there ya go. It's Blob Buzz for now, okay? :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning Oz; looks like we were on the same page as we both typed...


I agree. Looks like I can type 1 minute faster than you can! LOL!
Quoting CycloneOz:
Beat 'cha by 1 minute WWbe! :)

Does that mean I get to give it a "pre-invest" name (i.e. Ralph.)

If so, I'll name it Buzz.

So there ya go. It's Blob Buzz for now, okay? :)


That will work; as long as it does not turn into a "Buzz Saw" later on down the road.... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That will work; as long as it does not turn into a "Buzz Saw" later on down the road.... :)


I actually thought of that when I wrote the name "Buzz."

All I can say is beware 99L.
67. IKE
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##
BTW all, for everyone who followed along with me and PensacolaDoug yesterday on the previous blog...

UPS delivered his gift and he loves it. His comment to me last night on the phone was "You sure are a great friend." :) Well folks, you have to know this as a fact. PensacolaDoug is a great friend to have!

Finally, you need to know what the gift was. It's a very special watercolor print from the artist Ed Gill.

It's an off-size work, so I had to have a custom frame created for it, as well as special matting. Since the predominant color of the work is yellow, I had the framers match that yellow to the very edge of the mat, so the work really pops now.

Ed Gill's aviation masterpieces are spectacular in every way. This one featuring an early trainer with a period map of Pensacola as the background freaked me out when I found it at the Aviation Arts Gallery in Laguna Beach, CA.

While I was there admiring all the space art, Buzz Aldrin came in to sign some more portraits of himself that were for sale there. That's when I met old Buzz. He is awesome, BTW!
69. IKE
WOW!

No wonder....a choke job....awesome...

Models continue to strengthen the ridge over the east coast.


Uh Oh....



Buzz Blob has an "X" on it just like the "X" in our logo...




I'll really be watchin' it now! :(
Quoting HurrikanEB:
you know, I was hoping to get at least some rain out of this system, but its had a fairly defined "cut off line" on the western side= new york didnt get any rain like they were calling for.

I noticed the Yankies v Athletics game had a 2hr 35min rain delay. Was that due to 98L?
73. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

I noticed the Yankies v Athletics game had a 2hr 35min rain delay. Was that due to 98L?


Yup.
FROM Central Florida Hurrica (respected site)
The interesting item today... There is a plume of convection that shot southeast from the old 97L that is holding together interestingly this morning, which is the only thing worth watching at the moment. Right now it's a "blob", that if it persists a good 24 hours has a chance to do something.

Odds are that it will not, but it is the only thing going at the moment. However, these are the types of frontal/trough remnants you look for in development. For flare ups like these, Persistence is the key..



More to come later...

I was sceptical on the blob east of the Bahamas, but looking at bouy data there was a wind direction change at 27.5N 71.5W and 23.9N 70.9W. Also, 27.5N 71.5W showed a small pressure drop. Indicates to me something is at the surface. Hope QuikScat catches it.


Edit: Of course, this morning's QuikScat missed it.
Quoting IKE:


Yup.

Did it drop much rain or just annoying persistent showers
I have been talking of the blob since last evening; and continue with my assessment.
78. IKE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N77W TO 32N71W CONTINUING N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 69W-73W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N33W TO 9N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO INDICATE GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO THE THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN NELY FLOW ALOFT.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY DUE TO THE LACK
OF GOOD PRESENCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE DUE TO DRY SAHARAN AIR
DIRECTLY TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS IS IN THE E PACIFIC...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 94W-96W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. REFER TO THE TWDEP FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE SRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.
79. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did it drop much rain or just annoying persistent showers


Two official NYC PWS's I checked had around a third of an inch yesterday.
The blob near the Bahamas should become an area of low pressure within the next 48hrs or so.
from previous blog:

Quoting sebastianflorida:
Still thinking East of Florida for development soon, real soon, sweeps to the straights, and crawls back towards coat as it moves NNW as a Cat 1 or two.


I looked at your posts last night on the previous blog and compared them with the available imagery of Buzz (you didn't name it, sorry...) and though it wasn't much of a blob at the time, you do have a good eye.

It has so far done as you predicted it would do.

And now at this time, you may still be proven right with your above quote as far as movement goes as that is precisely where I see Buzz headed.

Cat 1? Cat 2? If it goes...this prediction too may prove true.

Good job, man! :) That was a nice catch yesterday!

If you wanna change the name, you certainly are allowed! :)
82. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Morning...
84. IKE
Not that anyone cares or should, but I had over an inch of rain in thunderstorms yesterday at my house....with no former invest around.

It rained here off and on for at least 5 hours.

Looks like it will go back to a normal summertime pattern next week in the SE USA. If there were something out in the Atlantic, which there isn't now, it would look to have a good chance of making it to the western Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM beginning next week.
I do not expect this current Blog Page to reach 2000 posts, before new Blog Page, on new development
Quoting sebastianflorida:
I do not expect this current Blog Page to reach 2000 posts, before new Blog Page, on new development


Agreed!

Rob is definitely gonna want to talk about Buzz (future 99L.)

I say we get to 1229 posts before he updates.

Those of us who thought we wouldn't have a named storm in July (include myself on that list, btw...) we may be eating crow come Sunday or Monday.
87. IKE
6Z NAM shows that blob east of the Bahamas, getting pulled north.

Shows high pressure building in to the SE USA.
Well... this should be an interesting weekend as we might be able to see some development from the moderate to strong TW that just came off Africa.

GFS has been quite persistent at it... just like it was with 97L. So development of it will remain to be seen.

One interesting observation from GFS... (latest run 06Z) is that you when run the loop you can see the wave trying to develop, but after a couple days conditions become a bit hostile... and tries to take it out, but then you get another TW energy jump starting the disturbance and moving on.


A high building over the SE CONUS...
A UUL spinning at 30N - 55W...

And Buzz is caught in between them right now.

I guess it could get sucked up to the east, but from how the setup is right now...it practically could go anywhere it wanted to.

IMO, it's looking like it wants to go stationary and decide later.
Quoting CycloneOz:
BTW all, for everyone who followed along with me and PensacolaDoug yesterday on the previous blog...

UPS delivered his gift and he loves it. His comment to me last night on the phone was "You sure are a great friend." :) Well folks, you have to know this as a fact. PensacolaDoug is a great friend to have!

Finally, you need to know what the gift was. It's a very special watercolor print from the artist Ed Gill.

It's an off-size work, so I had to have a custom frame created for it, as well as special matting. Since the predominant color of the work is yellow, I had the framers match that yellow to the very edge of the mat, so the work really pops now.

Ed Gill's aviation masterpieces are spectacular in every way. This one featuring an early trainer with a period map of Pensacola as the background freaked me out when I found it at the Aviation Arts Gallery in Laguna Beach, CA.

While I was there admiring all the space art, Buzz Aldrin came in to sign some more portraits of himself that were for sale there. That's when I met old Buzz. He is awesome, BTW!



It's beautiful Brian. Thanx bro!
Looks like people are wondering whether 99L will be next to the Bahamas or that tropical wave. I'll take a look at both and see what I think.
It looks like the Bahama area is weakening, and so is the tropical wave that just came off of Africa, however there is a system still on Africa East of the Cape Verdes, that may be something to watch for. I'll be back later.
good morning everyone
Good morning!

Thanks for the update Dr. Carver.

If I were to bet which system will become the next invest, I would place my bets on the African wave. NHC already states it has cyclonic turning, and it is at the sfc. The Bahamian blob looks like it is already dying. So...I will be watching the African wave over the next few days as it goes west/WNW
Orca is right....shear is at the most favorable levels now as I have seen the whole season. I think we are about to get the real season started, folks.....
Quoting AllStar17:
Good morning!

Thanks for the update Dr. Carver.

If I were to bet which system will become the next invest, I would place my bets on the African wave. NHC already states it has cyclonic turning, and it is at the sfc. The Bahamian blob looks like it is already dying. So...I will be watching the African wave over the next few days as it goes west/WNW

more west than WNW
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

more west than WNW


Yeah....and the key is it will be in favorable conditions, the only hinderance would seem to be dust.
No storms for July
Quoting AllStar17:
Orca is right....shear is at the most favorable levels now as I have seen the whole season. I think we are about to get the real season started, folks.....


Yup. Lets get this baby cranked up. I have a gut feeling that we could have a 2004 season.
Quoting RitaEvac:
No storms for July


Don't write off july yet, we could still have ana this month.
102. amd
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##


imho, those models seem right. It's going to be real hard to get an organized tropical system with a strong bermuda high, and a continuing el nino setup.

Way too much subsidence in the tropical atlantic currently.



Quoting RitaEvac:
No storms for July

don't write off july until the 30 or 31
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yup. Lets get this baby cranked up. I have a gut feeling that we could have a 2004 season.


August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004


Lacking a lot of convection on the eastern side of this wave.
We did have one TD but it wasn't named.
Quoting tropicfreak:
We did have one TD but it wasn't named.

yes we did but it was in may not june and not july and it was going to be named and I wish it had
Quoting wunderkidcayman:



August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004


August perhaps, but I feel it is too cool here in the northwesterly mideast (PennOhio border)for another 2004 season.
Quoting CycloneOz:
from previous blog:



I looked at your posts last night on the previous blog and compared them with the available imagery of Buzz (you didn't name it, sorry...) and though it wasn't much of a blob at the time, you do have a good eye.

It has so far done as you predicted it would do.

And now at this time, you may still be proven right with your above quote as far as movement goes as that is precisely where I see Buzz headed.

Cat 1? Cat 2? If it goes...this prediction too may prove true.

Good job, man! :) That was a nice catch yesterday!

If you wanna change the name, you certainly are allowed! :)
Well, we'll see, however the darn thing looks less impresive now than 3 hours ago.
Still putting my money on development though
Quoting IKE:
Not that anyone cares or should, but I had over an inch of rain in thunderstorms yesterday at my house....with no former invest around.

It rained here off and on for at least 5 hours.

Looks like it will go back to a normal summertime pattern next week in the SE USA. If there were something out in the Atlantic, which there isn't now, it would look to have a good chance of making it to the western Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM beginning next week.
i care ever remember so many fronts in dead summer?
Check this out:
sittinontopoftheworld

Mornin' wunderweatherfolk, something really cute about 97L being part of the blob now 'dropping out of the sky' so to speak.
i think albert einstein was also fond of watching the weather. if he had satellite pictures to watch maybe he wouldn't have gotten so much accomplished in his life! lol
when the tropics are slow, more gets done.
i wonder if sal is really thick enough to stop development if something were able to get a foothold right now.
tgif everyone!
awesome!
Quoting jaycoyote:


August perhaps, but I feel it is too cool here in the northwesterly mideast (PennOhio border)for another 2004 season.


That has nothing to do with how bad a hurricane season will be. GOM temperatures are really hot and certain spots in the carribean waters are hot as well. These kinds of fronts that are diving further from the north and keeping the midwest and east states cooler are perfect for curving storms that enter the GOM right into land. It's all about the timing. Because if the front is further east it will curve the storm up the east coast or out to sea (fish storm).
morning
the area 10N 43W seems to be a pertabation in the itcz. sometimes disturbances can form from such features. i will continue to look at this area for signs of cyclogenesis
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
pennstate meterology
here's a project!
54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.


Got a feeling the next 70 days will not be as slow, never is!
Cool air over SoFla lately (500mb) .
nothing to hang a hat on right now hopefully it stays that way
Quoting weatherskink:
Cool air over SoFla lately (500mb) .


huh?
Good morning but...just wondering where that came from?
We are in the 90's everyday and many days breaking heat records.... where are you from in South Florida?

The heat we have this summer is very unusual for South Florida, especially SE Florida.. we don't hit 90's everyday "normally"

Good morning everyone.
Hope all is well and we have no systems
coming to harm anyone this year.

Gams
Quoting IKE:
Not that anyone cares or should, but I had over an inch of rain in thunderstorms yesterday at my house....with no former invest around.

It rained here off and on for at least 5 hours.

Looks like it will go back to a normal summertime pattern next week in the SE USA. If there were something out in the Atlantic, which there isn't now, it would look to have a good chance of making it to the western Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM beginning next week.


Ike I care about your rain should be a hot one today? I hear 95 degrees in Defuniak Springs.
122. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike I care about your rain should be a hot one today? I hear 95 degrees in Defuniak Springs.


Today
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly before 2 PM. Highs 89 to 94. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Quoting Chicklit:
pennstate meterology
here's a project!


This site is indeed pretty awesome. Great functionality, really good displays.

It's near the top of my weather favorites now! :)

Thank you very much for posting! :)

PS: I rarely do this. I gave you a "plus" vote on your post! :)
I am in FL and these stalled out fronts that we are getting are bothering me. If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL. This could be the year that Tampa gets the big one.
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.
Quoting RufusBaker:
I am in FL and these stalled out fronts that we are getting are bothering me. If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL. This could be the year that Tampa gets the big one.


I agree and I live in St. Petersburg, FL. My house is only 3 ft above sea level. I would be in serious trouble even with a strong cat 2.
Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.
Haha... for me personally, a lot was released on Tuesday night over the Dominican Republic as 97l moved over. Wind was gusting to 60 mph with constant lightning and over 5 inches of rain. Great storm to watch from the beach. :)
Quoting StormChaser81:


I agree and I live in St. Petersburg, FL. My house is only 3 ft above sea level. I would be in serious trouble even with a strong cat 2.
Downtown Tampa would be in trouble with a strong TS. Bayshore floods with strong cold fronts
Quoting RufusBaker:
...If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL...


Really?


Quoting amd:


imho, those models seem right. It's going to be real hard to get an organized tropical system with a strong bermuda high, and a continuing el nino setup.

Way too much subsidence in the tropical atlantic currently.



Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


Hi all,
Just checking back on this board as I liked coming on here during the seasons before. Now, I am born and raised Miami and now live on the Treasure Coast but in all my years (40+) I never even started thinking about hurricane probability until at least late mid to late August. I know we have had a season here and there with earlier but does anyone really expect to see any real "action" until that time? I'm just curious statistically? Best regards!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Really?


Yes... really. Do you know how to read wind barbs?
133. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.


I don't know.

I can tell you when it won't be released in the Atlantic and that's through the end of July.

Probably by mid-August with an end to the season for me by mid-October.
Sorry about that...the answer is truely really. :)

My ability to read sheet music got in the way just then and I brain farted.

LOL....(I'll go get some coffee and wake up....)
135. IKE
What a surprise...troughs in the east on the 12Z NAM at 60 hours....notice a pattern here?

The area 10N 44W is showing some form of organisation. it is a pertabation from the ITCZ.
This could be the next invest and i suspect ANA
137. IKE
area 10N 44W


Link
Good morning folks,

Just a quick drop in before work.

Chicklit - a different point of view - looking from top of the world - thanks.

I am looking for a surface map that includes the East Atlantic.
There is this which is on of my favorites, but I wanted something showing tropical waves a bit more clearly.

Thanking you in advance.
Got your mail junky! And you've got a reply.
Surface map

KEH see if this works
Re #123 and #139:
Thanks guys.
I cannot read those maps.
Don't have that gene.
Not saying women can't, however, as there are several on this blog who can and do!
Just not me.
I'm better at art, literature than math, science. It's all good.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Surface map

KEH see if this works
Thanks... that is exactly what I was looking for. Much appreciated.
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

don't write off july until the 30 or 31

August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004

NOOOOOO!!!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.


It is in a dry enviroment and dealing with SAL though
Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.


Not this year!!!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.

Agree, Petrol. That's what worries me,too.
Been watching that area like a hawk!
new blog thread up from Dr Masters.
After looking at the current visible loop and focusing on the new Bahama blog, I see a few interesting things about it.

1) It just outflowed from every side within the last couple of hours.

2) Is that a low pressure developing on the western flank?

3) Is it trying to develop a spin?

It looks like a very iffy blob right now. That one thing is for sure.

The problem I have with animations is that when I stare at them for so long, I begin to see things that aren't really there.
Destinjeff,
I'm still trying to remember your "Hebert's Litter Box" joke...something about every time your cat stepped in it, something happened.
Quoting seflagamma:
new blog thread up from Dr Masters.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It is in a dry enviroment and dealing with SAL though

Agreed, if it can keep due west, it might stand a chance as shear seems to be at its lowest now in the MDR
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html

The GFS 925mb Vorticity forecast shows something breaking off of the trough at about 24 hrs near 30N70W. What does this exactly mean?
Here's a kick in the behind blog friends...I live in the least probable area on the U.S. East Coast for tropical activity (Jersey Shore) and MY area took it on the chin probably the worst from yesterday's 98L. It was not unlike other (minor) tropical events of the past, at least on the direct coast.