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Invest 97L quiets down, nothing else in sight

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:49 PM GMT on July 27, 2008

The only game in town, Invest 97L, has quieted down and the Atlantic is pretty dull. Convection with Invest 97L has subsided, which is no real surprise considering that it had been on the wrong side of the wave if you're looking for development. The wave still lacks any organization and there is nothing else in sight.



Bryan Woods

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Drakoen:
This site should have advertisements for Prozac...


LOL... Maybe it does, though only non-paying members can see them (or if you log out).
3002. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
This site should have advertisements for Prozac...


LOL....way too serious by a few.

My gosh...it's a weather blog.
Quoting JFV:
Thanks for your heartfelt and kind words Weatherman, they certainly meant the world to me, buddy!
maybe ya need a twizzle stick
Quoting Chiggy007:
Girls...Girls!! LoL!


Are you gonna stop?
3005. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Quoting Drakoen:
This site should have advertisements for Prozac...


LOL....way too serious by a few.

My gosh...it's a weather blog.


Exactly. This weather blog has turned into some dramaland. If you can't handle this blog how the heck do you handle the real world.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting JFV:
Thanks for your heartfelt and kind words Weatherman, they certainly meant the world to me, buddy!
maybe ya need a twizzle stick


No comment! lol
3007. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting JFV:
Thanks for your heartfelt and kind words Weatherman, they certainly meant the world to me, buddy!
maybe ya need a twizzle stick


LOL!

3009. nash28
Just stopping in for a sec.

I see no Invest yet in the EATL.
3010. Vero1
Quoting 7544:
ok we had over 10 pages of pure garbage can we now get 10 pages of real weather talk thats what the blog is for thanks sehhhhhhhh


I agree. I going back to taking the glass out of my windows.
Quoting 69Viking:
2930. stormdude77

I asked that earlier and was pretty much ignored.


I can see why; there was too much bickering in here earlier...once that happens, don't even bother asking weather related questions...
This is like a soap opra!!!to much drama!!!,there are tropical disturances out there people lets concentrate on that instead of bickering..thanks a fellow wunderblogger
omg, popped in for a sec and found myself amidst "As the Hurricane Spins" and there isn't even a storm out there...what up with the prozac mental institution soap opera stuff?
3014. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting IKE:
Quoting Drakoen:
This site should have advertisements for Prozac...


LOL....way too serious by a few.

My gosh...it's a weather blog.


Exactly. This weather blog has turned into some dramaland. If you can't handle this blog how the heck do you handle the real world.


They probably can't. They seem to express their lack-of-ability to handle the real-world on here.
Well, NO cos you guys (or girls i should say) are still acting like..hmmm, little girls! Get back to tropical weather mate...
Forget As The World Turns, we have As The Blog Turns... I would appreciate a little less wineiness and a little more weather
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting JFV:
Thanks for your heartfelt and kind words Weatherman, they certainly meant the world to me, buddy!
maybe ya need a twizzle stick


ROTFLMFAO
3021. CapnJak
Quoting mikatnight:
You folks seem to have some smarts (when yer not moanin' and groanin').

I got a question for ya:

When was the last time major hurricane (sustained) winds were felt in Palm Beach County (Florida)?


Hurricane Wilma in 2005...
3022. tkeith
no problems here....xanax
Quoting Chiggy007:
Well, NO cos you guys (or girls i should say) are still acting like..hmmm, little girls! Get back to tropical weather mate...


ROFL im trying....
Quoting yonzabam:
It's like a gay Cuckoo's Nest fishing expedition in here.


that was good!
is it 3 oclock yet isnt dr phil on
3028. IKE
GOM system has been dropped from the updated TWO....

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 29, 2008


for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave just offshore of the West Coast of Africa is moving
slowly west-northwestward. Development...if any...of this system
is expected to be slow to occur.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Blake




RIP GOM system....
Addition: Now that I reflect back on it, Drak has been a constant victim of harrassment here for weeks. Most everyone has harrassed him just because he sticks to his guns and speaks his mind. Although I may not agree with the way he has approached others with his comments, he should not have been receiving a constant barrage of "bullets" just for going agains the majority opinion and for speaking his mind. I respect you for that Drak.
Quoting CapnJak:
Quoting mikatnight:
You folks seem to have some smarts (when yer not moanin' and groanin').

I got a question for ya:

When was the last time major hurricane (sustained) winds were felt in Palm Beach County (Florida)?


Hurricane Wilma in 2005...


I remember that one....Wilma cost me allot of money.
3031. Vero1
Come on folks let JFV go study for that exam, like he said he going to do six pages ago.
3027.

you got an hour and a half...btw...nice new avatar =)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is it 3 oclock yet isnt dr phil on


LOL....I should call em up and tell him to come on here and school yall. lol
3035. IKE
CCHS...will you please stop posting that? That's the 3rd time...it's a weather blog.

Please stop posting that....Ive seen it 4 times and ive read it once.
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting Vero1:
Come on folks let JFV go study for that exam, like he said he going to do six pages ago.


LOL!


ROFL... :p
Quoting IKE:
CCHS...will you please stop posting that? That's the 3rd time...it's a weather blog.


Yeah it takes up allot of space.
3040. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Blah Blah Blah


Please stop posting that....Ive seen it 4 times and ive read it once.


Reminiscent of the TWO...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quoting IKE:
CCHS...will you please stop posting that? That's the 3rd time...it's a weather blog.


Yeah it takes up allot of space.


LMAO
LOL Drak...same concept.
....Does anyone have a dolly high def. radar snapshot of her multiple vorticies in her eye before making landfall..it would be helpful!!!..as I can not find any information on this occurance,anybody have any explaination or idea????????????????????
3045. IKE
3040...LOL!

Half of the posts on this blog should be deleted by admin!
3047. NEwxguy
unbelievable!!!!We really do need an invest or TD.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
3027.

you got an hour and a half...btw...nice new avatar =)
thanks tigger
ok...leaving for now...be back when the kids are in bed...the things that happen in here when there is NO storm to watch...and when there is...stormkat aka stormtop aka stormttop is in here causing havoc...bouncin out!
wave at 32w looks good if convection persists for 6-12 hrs then a surface low is forming and right now it looks to have a slight spin in mid levels it means its trying now
Just popped in and OMG its hysterical!!!! Glad to know I can come on here and get tropical info(haha).....
Quoting NEwxguy:
unbelievable!!!!We really do need an invest or TD.


Let's bypass all of that and get a real storm... That would surely stop all of the bickering...like it did with Dolly LOL
3053. Patrap
Midwest Floods b-4 and after Images Link
3054. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:
wave at 32w looks good if convection persists for 6-12 hrs then a surface low is forming and right now it looks to have a slight spin in mid levels it means its trying now


could be first to get the label 98l imo
When is nap time so that the adults can come back on and discuss the Tropics?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Addition: Now that I reflect back on it, Drak has been a constant victim of harrassment here for weeks. Most everyone has harrassed him just because he sticks to his guns and speaks his mind. Although I may not agree with the way he has approached others with his comments, he should not have been receiving a constant barrage of "bullets" just for going agains the majority opinion and for speaking his mind. I respect you for that Drak.


Please stop thats the third time you posted that. PEOPLE FOR CRING OUT LOUD ITS A WEATHER BLOG NOT A PLACE TO EXPRESS FELLING SAVE THAT FOR JERRY SPRINGER!!!!!!!!!
Quoting IKE:
GOM system has been dropped from the updated TWO....

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 29, 2008


for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave just offshore of the West Coast of Africa is moving
slowly west-northwestward. Development...if any...of this system
is expected to be slow to occur.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Blake




RIP GOM system....


Hmmm... They don't seem to like the African wave that much...
3058. NEwxguy
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Quoting NEwxguy:
unbelievable!!!!We really do need an invest or TD.


Let's bypass all of that and get a real storm... That would surely stop all of the bickering...like it did with Dolly LOL


I say we call the wave off Africa Edouard,
that should work.
Stormchaser:

I agree to that!!!
Jerry, Jerry, Jerry, Jerry!
I found this really interesting. Link 72 hour forecast map from the NHC. Shows a ridge to the north of the wave that extends across the ATL. The ridge I'm sure will weaken in time but the wave should give us something to watch in the next few days ;)
3063. Drakoen
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Quoting IKE:
GOM system has been dropped from the updated TWO....

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 29, 2008




$$
Forecaster Blake




RIP GOM system....


Hmmm... They don't seem to like the African wave that much...


Yea. That's the same vibe I got.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:

Quoting NEwxguy:
unbelievable!!!!We really do need an invest or TD.


Let's bypass all of that and get a real storm... That would surely stop all of the bickering...like it did with Dolly LOL


I say we call the wave off Africa Edouard,
that should work.


LOL... I think some in here already have
3065. Drakoen
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Blake is normally conservative, the system isnt even all the way off of Africa, they will come around soon enough if the wave keeps its structure


It is off Africa just very close to the coast.
NEwxguy if you call the wave off Africa that someone will be confused and think we have a TS or Hurricane out there.
3068. NEwxguy
The A/B high seems awfully strong and pretty far south and east,seems to me that would cause some problems for the waves coming off africa,am I right?
3070. DocBen
Crazy day! I spend time on some political blogs - I expect nastiness there. But over here I have always come to expect lively but informative conversation. Let's all kick back and relax for a while!
3071. afj3
How long will it be until that wave off Africa will become an invest?
3072. Drakoen
Quoting jphurricane2006:
if they didnt like the African wave that much it would be on the TWO at all, once again patience people lol


The lets if the TWD contradicts that thought.
3073. 7544
nope the wave at 32 will get the name eddy first i think
3074. NEwxguy
Quoting fran0made0me:
NEwxguy if you call the wave off Africa that someone will be confused and think we have a TS or Hurricane out there.


Not really suggesting we do that,it would cause a lot problems,just joking about getting peoples attention back on the tropics
3075. IKE
12Z CMC...sends the African wave west and forms a system off of the African coast in 144 hours....

Link
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I found this really interesting. Link 72 hour forecast map from the NHC. Shows a ridge to the north of the wave that extends across the ATL. The ridge I'm sure will weaken in time but the wave should give us something to watch in the next few days ;)


Agreed, but not that much. With the front tilted like that above the ridge I don't think it will have much of an impact.
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting MichaelSTL:

Quoting IKE:
GOM system has been dropped from the updated TWO....

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 29, 2008




$$
Forecaster Blake




RIP GOM system....


Hmmm... They don't seem to like the African wave that much...


Yea. That's the same vibe I got.
waitin on the return impulse of mjo starting around the 10 or 11 aug then we will get all the action we need till then just more of the same nothing more nothing less
And 3069 disappears from my screen
Quoting jphurricane2006:
if they didnt like the African wave that much it would be on the TWO at all, once again patience people lol


Patience is a virtue. I agree. They got some inpatient and crazy people in this world. lol
3080. IKE
3077...you're probably right...which is what StormW said would happen too. Just a temporary lull.....
Quoting afj3:
How long will it be until that wave off Africa will become an invest?


It already is.
Patrap thanks for the very good links you post. I've added a number of them to my favorites.
man guys look at the wave at 32w stop talkin about the african wave if u keep talkin about it then it won't form
3087. Patrap
There are NO Atlantic Invest at this time. Link
3089. NEwxguy
watching and patiently waiting
Quoting jphurricane2006:
have to go, behave while im gone


ill think about it. lol
3091. Patrap
Thanx TT, glad you find the Links useful..have a good afternoon.
Patrap at this point i have most of your links on my favorites.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on the return impulse of mjo starting around the 10 or 11 aug then we will get all the action we need till then just more of the same nothing more nothing less


It isn't that bad right now, with little to no abnormal subsidence over the Atlantic (any subsidence you see right now is normal):



That is in part because the MJO signal is very weak, thus is not having much of an effect (I believe this map also includes non-MJO related anomalies).
3095. NEwxguy
everytime someone says behave,I have visions of being in a classroom again.
3096. Patrap
Having the tools close when the Fray comes makes it easier than coming here like some do asking for this and that.

One can Google anything you think of..from frogs to Logs.

Google usually gives a bunch of Links to anything.

For example.
Google Tropical Models..
3097. IKE
12Z GFS showing a GOM system early next week...

Link
3098. Patrap
Google results for Tropical Models Link
3099. NEwxguy
3096. Patrap 6:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2008

Pat,
Couldn't agree with you more,have the fun is researching different sites and google gives a gazillion choices.
You mean Mr. Redundant never learn anything for himself?
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS showing a GOM system early next week...

Link


brings it right over my house.
3102. Patrap
543,000 links to Tropical Models should hold some busy till December..

wave at 32w is holding good convection but it has to go though some dry air when it appoaches the antillies
Also notice the enhanced area already building in the East Pacific and Gulf/western Caribbean.
Whoa!! Drama - anyways, back to weather. According to TWC, the pressures are rising with the GOMEX blob. I doubt we will see any development here - just some rain for LA and TX. However, the wave just west of the wave coming off Africa looks extremely impressive and seems to have some potential. Looking at the latest satellite imagery it even looks to have some rotation with it. Surprised its not already an invest. I believe this will be 98L with another wave to watch right behind it. Seems to be the year of the Cape Verde storms. Drak, Storm W, thoughts?
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED.
Perhaps one of my favorite teachers on here could explain why the blob in the GOM is just a rain system? To me, conditions are favorable for development, but local mets are calling it a rain event. I'm interested in learning.
3108. IKE
Quoting StormChaser2005:
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS showing a GOM system early next week...

Link


brings it right over my house.


It doesn't have much model support yet...maybe that will change.
3109. Patrap
Technical Attachment

AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS Link

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region
3110. beell
From the 205PM TWD:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH DISTINCT
LOW CLOUD TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

From my blog this morning:

Two waves worth watching. Looks like the central ATL wave really has its axis alon 38W. Dragging a ball of convection SE of the wave axis. This one moving west-down low.

The other wave heading WNW and might be more inclined to find a weakness to the N.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N43W 12N45W 3N46W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N48W. THIS WAVE MAY
REACH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.


I see 32N being mentioned, I got 38W, NHC had 42N this morning and now it's at 48N.
Where is it lol. Is it trans-atlantic?
3111. IKE
Not that anyone cares or should, but it's raining at my house again...here in the Florida panhandle....
Quoting fran0made0me:
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED.


Again? I wonder how they deal with that; this is from Wikipedia:

After a long period of dormancy it became active in 1995, and has continued to erupt ever since. Its eruptions have rendered more than half of Montserrat uninhabitable, destroying the capital city, Plymouth, and causing widespread evacuations: about two thirds of the population left the island.
3114. IKE
3110. beell 1:09 PM CDT on July 29, 2008 Hide this comment.
From the 205PM TWD:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH DISTINCT
LOW CLOUD TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.


The 12Z GFS and NAM really flair that wave up as it approaches the islands.
Quoting Patrap:
543,000 links to Tropical Models should hold some busy till December..


We could only hope, lol.
Quoting IKE:
Quoting StormChaser2005:

Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS showing a GOM system early next week...

Link


brings it right over my house.


It doesn't have much model support yet...maybe that will change.


We need a nice tropical storm or minimal hurricane to cancel school later this year.
Quoting beell:
From the 205PM TWD:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH DISTINCT
LOW CLOUD TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

From my blog this morning:

Two waves worth watching. Looks like the central ATL wave really has its axis alon 38W. Dragging a ball of convection SE of the wave axis. This one moving west-down low.

The other wave heading WNW and might be more inclined to find a weakness to the N.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N43W 12N45W 3N46W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N48W. THIS WAVE MAY
REACH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.


I see 32N being mentioned, I got 38W, NHC had 42N this morning and now it's at 48N.
Where is it lol. Is it trans-atlantic?

32n i believe its 32w
3118. NEwxguy
You can have the rain Ike,we had more than enough here in New England last week.
3119. afj3
Thanks mikatnight. It looks like we are into another busy season.
Quoting fran0made0me:
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED.



Do you have a link to this ?


A large eruption close to north America could make winter very interesting.
3121. kdav
guys theres like a huge downpour here in jville. im soaking wet getting back from lunch.
3122. beell
Sure nuff IKE. Saw the GFS of it. Almost looks like it stold some energy from the other wave.

Long ways off, but "half wet" might get far enough N to find a weakness-and "off it goes".

This one at 48N through 32N (lol) might squeak through and then face the TUTT if it is still strong.

Ok-back to lunch. Enough wild ideas!
3123. beell
btwntx.
Thank you sir! Will edit.
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Do you have a link to this ?


A large eruption close to north America could make winter very interesting.


It has been erupting on and off since 1995, see the link I posted above. Seriously doubt it will have any effect at all next winter, only the most massive volcanic eruptions can do that (even the recent Chaiten volcano in Chile had little, if any, effects down there from what I have seen).
Any thoughts on another system developing off the Carolina's. Pretty strong mid-level rotation / convection.
Quoting beell:
btwntx.
Thank you sir! Will edit.

your welcome beell
3127. Patrap
Dome collapses at Montserrat volcano; ash blasts into stratosphere

from 3 hours ago Link

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Volcano monitors say the Caribbean's Montserrat volcano has blasted a column of ash some 12 kilometres high into the sky.
3111. IKE

Told you it was going to be rainy couple of days! Saturday we received 3 inches along the coast so were not hurting for rain either. The ponds are finally holding some water, not full but holding some water instead of sun baked and dry. The frogs are happy, they serenade us to sleep!
3129. beell
Edit to Post 3110.
Had trouble w/Mod button.
Fixed all "N"'s to "W".

see 32W being mentioned, I got 38W, NHC had 42W this morning and now it's at 48W.
Where is it lol. Is it trans-atlantic?
Yet again, TWD contradicts the TWO
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W
SOUTH OF 18N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 11N17W. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Quoting fran0made0me:
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED.



Do you have a link to this ?


A large eruption close to north America could make winter very interesting.


Yeah, it occured last night...some information about it is here
3132. Patrap
3135. NEwxguy
the last volcano eruption,that effected the climate was Mt Pinatubo in 1991
You guys the flare up of convection to the west of the wave emerging off africa is just part of the ITCZ:

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 13N48W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W
. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

3138. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:
3111. IKE

Told you it was going to be rainy couple of days! Saturday we received 3 inches along the coast so were not hurting for rain either. The ponds are finally holding some water, not full but holding some water instead of sun baked and dry. The frogs are happy, they serenade us to sleep!


Same here...I live on a lake...plenty of frogs around..........
3139. Patrap


Island Info Link
Geez, the NHC is really being conservative. This wave came off 2 days ago, and it still looks good.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Do you have a link to this ?


A large eruption close to north America could make winter very interesting.


It has been erupting on and off since 1995, see the link I posted above. Seriously doubt it will have any effect at all next winter, only the most massive volcanic eruptions can do that (even the recent Chaiten volcano in Chile had little, if any, effects down there from what I have seen).


Well I hope your right. You just never know when the ash gets in the atmosphere though.
3142. kdav
so guys it seems we have two wavesand the atlantic. i give the african wave a good shot and the one ahead it needs to keep flaring before convection tries to build. it will have to deal with dry air. the gom might get something this weekend from a trough too.
3125. TheCaneWhisperer

I don't know but the remnants of Dolly in the central part of the country could really cause some more flooding concerns. I think that blob off the southeast cost will push northeast out to sea before any development.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
You guys the flare up of convection to the west of the wave emerging off africa is just part of the ITCZ:

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 13N48W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W
. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 53W-57W.


convection has been persisted for 4-5 hrs already its going break off and form
This is in reference to my comment about the Chile volcano:

LOL!! OMG i leave for lunch and miss the best damn drama i've read in a long time....go figure...looks like the same person is doing the same thing over and over and over and over..is this getting redudant yet??
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Any thoughts on another system developing off the Carolina's. Pretty strong mid-level rotation / convection.


Funny you brought this up...I was just looking at that system and said hmmmm to myself. I think maybe something might develop if the convection can hold together?
thought it was a lava doom collapse not a actual eruption? http://eruptions.wordpress.com/
3152. Patrap
They tried to Make me go to Blog rehab..

I said... , NO!!, NO!!, NO!!!
is chhs's blog full yet??
3155. Levi32
3124. MichaelSTL 10:20 AM AKDT on July 29, 2008

Well the Chile eruption can't affect the climate much because it wasn't close enough to the equator. Eruptions at mid to high latitudes don't affect the climate much because the ash is carried in the westerlies, which spreads it out a ton and doesn't have near as much affect on how much sun energy hits the earth than if it was circling around the equator, where the most sun energy hits the earth. The ash also wouldn't be spread out as much if it was stuck at the equator.
Quoting leftovers:
thought it was a lava doom collapse not a actual eruption?


Seems like a bit of both to me since I don't think a collapse would send ash 40,000 feet up:

Montserrat volcano blasts ash into sky
The Associated PressPublished: July 29, 2008

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico: A dome over the crater of Montserrat's volcano has partially collapsed, spewing ash an estimated 40,000 feet (12 kilometers) into the Caribbean sky, scientists said Tuesday.

No one was injured, but residents were temporarily evacuated late Monday as a precaution, said Roderick Stewart, director of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory.

About 120 people who live north of the volcano drove away in their cars to stay at government buildings and returned later, said James White Jr., acting director of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency.

The collapse sent bursts of volcanic material sweeping into the abandoned former capital of Plymouth, which was buried in a 1997 eruption that killed 19 people, and on into the sea, according to the observatory.

Stewart said the dome of the Soufriere Hills volcano is expected to crumble further, leading to more explosions and lava flows.

The dome has formed and collapsed at least four times in previous years, with the most recent collapse recorded in January 2007, Stewart said. Dozens of people were relocated for about six months during that collapse, White said.

The dome will likely keep growing, "and then one day it will run out of puff," Stewart said.

The volcano, which spewed large columns of ash over the weekend, became active in 1995 and forced the departure of half of the island's inhabitants.
Just cos something has a strong convection doesn't mean it will develop in to somehting of tropical nature(cyclone)! Thuderstroms happen all over the place, BUT if it has an associated circulation then it's a different matter!
So, please not get too excited if you guys see big blobs of convection in the middle of the Atlantic..unless of course you see signs of rotation to go with it...
StormW - Thanks! Now I understand why it's not developing. Glad for that, just glad we will get some rain in LA.
I appreciate your updates!
Loop of satellite image showing eruption OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO. The volcano is on the small island north of Goudalupe.
Link
Can someone tell me why someof the comments on this blog are hidden and I have to click show to read them?
JP, the area we're talking about is near 32W and it looks like more than an ITCZ enhancement to me. Like StormW said it has no LLC yet but it bears watching.

3162. Patrap
Set the FILTER to the right to "SHOW ALL"

to see all comments.

But I warned ya..LOL
Quoting Chiggy007:
Just cos something has a strong convection doesn't mean it will develop in to somehting of tropical nature(cyclone)! Thuderstroms happen all over the place, BUT if it has an associated circulation then it's a different matter!
So, please not get too excited if you guys see big blobs of convection in the middle of the Atlantic..unless of course you see signs of rotation to go with it...


Right. Those waves also have to sustain convection after moving offshore as well; the current wave has been over water for a day now according to SSD's locations (they wouldn't take readings if it was over land, even if it was too weak):



29/1730 UTC 12.2N 16.9W TOO WEAK INVEST
29/1200 UTC 11.3N 16.6W TOO WEAK INVEST
29/0600 UTC 9.7N 16.2W TOO WEAK INVEST
29/0000 UTC 9.4N 15.8W TOO WEAK INV
28/1800 UTC 9.2N 15.4W TOO WEAK INV

Also still moving rapidly northwards...
Quoting Patrap:
Set the FILTER to the right to "SHOW ALL"

to see all comments.

But I warned ya..LOL


Thanks
3157. Chiggy007

I think us guys can get excited over whatever we want to and if it's a blob in the CATL with no circulation so be it. Does anything get you excited?
3166. Indaba
Link

I am looking directly at the Montserrat Volcano which is roughly 35 mailes distant from my mooring. There is a huge ash clound developed over the island into the cloud base above. There have been several earthquakes related to this recent eruption which started in earnest on Saturday night. I enclose the link to the permanent Volcano Observatory which is based in the Soufriere Hills on Montserrat in the exclsuion zone. I visited here in March and th lunar landscape around this part of the island is impressive. One of my yachts pasing close to the exclusion zone at the week end reported heavy sulphur deposits and ash on hos decks. By Montserrat standards this is a realtively minor eruption. ee the website for very good info.
big earth quake in la
3168. junie1
I live in St.Thomas in in the usvi and theres a lot of ash on the cars over here.How about you guys in Puerto rico
Quoting Levi32:
3124. MichaelSTL 10:20 AM AKDT on July 29, 2008

Well the Chile eruption can't affect the climate much because it wasn't close enough to the equator. Eruptions at mid to high latitudes don't affect the climate much because the ash is carried in the westerlies, which spreads it out a ton and doesn't have near as much affect on how much sun energy hits the earth than if it was circling around the equator, where the most sun energy hits the earth. The ash also wouldn't be spread out as much if it was stuck at the equator.


After the past winter, I kind of wonder what would happen if we had a major eruption like Pinatubo and a strong La Nina at the same time, although such eruptions seem to trigger El Ninos instead (probably because the cooling results in a heat imbalance between the ocean and atmosphere, thus heat is released from the ocean, a little contradictory since El Ninos are usually associated with warming though it makes sense when the ocean heat exchange is considered; in contrast, La Nina causes cooling because heat is absorbed into the ocean).
the ash will be here later afternoon.

Link
3173. Greyelf
Quoting leftovers:
big earth quake in la


8 mins ago registered at 5.8 according to USGS.
A magnitude 5.8 earthquake has rattled Los Angeles, California

Someone has made the undergrounds gods mad.
3175. NEwxguy
Quoting leftovers:
big earth quake in la


did it just occur?
Hmm, volcanoes and earthquakes, hold on everyone!
69Viking:

That wave off Africa gets me a little excited..
3178. Chiggy007

If it keeps going North it's just going to be a fish storm. That wave around 32W has a better chance to affect land.
at least it was not a 7.0
3181. crownwx
sounds like it has just happened (5.8 earthquake in LA). I'll have to check the radio scanners from LA Fire when I get home in a few minutes.
3182. Greyelf
KTLA streaming video

Link
Untasked recon dropsonde in the gulf today..
all things must come to pass
volcanoes, earthquakes, possible invest oh my!! gees is the world falling apart on a tuesday?? sure hope everyone is ok....nothing... then all of a sudden everything...unreal!!
LA Earthquake just happened - I received email from my daughter. She is in Orange County, CA and felt it.
Almost right on top of LA:

Quoting hurricanehanna:
A magnitude 5.8 earthquake has rattled Los Angeles, California

Someone has made the undergrounds gods mad.


it was me and Baja....we were talking about "earthquake weather" yesterday!
3189. Vero1
All from two days of Blog Rattling
3190. kdav
is it on cnn?
3191. Indaba
69 Viking

The amount of ash spewing to a great height out out of Montserrat will have influence to some degree on the tropical waves passing through to the west of the Caribbean mid island chain during the next week or so.
This blog is now going to be called "Earthquake" blog during the next few hours depending on how serious the LA situation is!
This is a weather blog, please refrain from over blogging about the LA earthquake reports....if you realy want to the PLEASE find an earthquake blog..I am sure there are plenty out there....
3193. kdav
yeah ccn has it. they say 5.8 just east of la.
3194. CATfour
LA just had a 3.8 after shock.
Impressive....

Hi Annie! Miss you...
Quoting kdav:
is it on cnn?


Yep. Slow news day. They're hyping it.
Okay, everyone needs to play nice now and behave! Mother Nature is getting pissed!
wait watch see
3203. CATfour
Quoting kdav:
is it on cnn?
yes, and on ever news channel you can think of.
stock mkt is up at least oil is down volcano going off the tropics are sleeping so what are we going to blog ciggie?
3183. Skyepony - couldn't link. What is it showing?
3207. kdav
yeah so far damage seems minimal. they say san diego and possibly las vegas felt it.
3208. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:



Looks good...
The FOX4 local guy was going on about upwelling and a blob in the GOM off So.Lo. What are the odds of it sitting there long enough to become depressed?
3212. kdav
just looked at the 850_winds nogaps and it shows that the gomex has a circulation as well asthe other two waves.
Keeper...your avatars are giving me bad dreams.
3217. kdav
wow. them two waves look good. i could be mistaking but im seeing some evident circulation in the wave off the coast. the other one seems to have a small swirl.
Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
Quoting kdav:
is it on cnn?


Yep. Slow news day. They're hyping it.


agreed, a 5.8 is a very small quake
3221. kdav
hey theres a new blog.
Quoting captainhunter:
Keeper...your avatars are giving me bad dreams.
sorry if it helps
his name is eddy
Quoting Chiggy007:
This blog is now going to be called "Earthquake" blog during the next few hours depending on how serious the LA situation is!
This is a weather blog, please refrain from over blogging about the LA earthquake reports....if you realy want to the PLEASE find an earthquake blog..I am sure there are plenty out there....

You need to take a Chill Pill. Chill dude, like someone said tropics are quite and really that is breaking news. If ya don't like what there talking about go to another blog.
Sheri
The dropsonde was well to the SE of the blob. A good measure of the mid to upper level shear that's been there. 1016mb at the surface there. Probibly put a little extra stock in the 18z runs...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting captainhunter:
Keeper...your avatars are giving me bad dreams.
sorry if it helps
his name is eddy


Eddy is nice...and the other one's name is.....SATAN?!?
hello
3227. FLdewey
BLOG TEST
3228. FLdewey
BLOG TEST 2