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Invest 97L bringing heavy rains to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:03 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche has spun up very quickly into an impressive system with very heavy thunderstorm activity. Radar out of Alvarado, Mexico is showing some rotation to 97L, and the system is close to tropical depression strength. In a special statement issued at 9:15am EDT, NHC gave 97L a 50% chance of development before the storm moves ashore over Mexico this afternoon. The topography of the Bay of Campeche features mountains that help accelerate the counter-clockwise flow of low-level winds, making the region prone to sudden spin-ups of tropical storms.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

97L a heavy rainfall threat
It is already raining in Veracruz, just to the south of where the center of 97L is expected to make landfall. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can be expected over Mexico today and Thursday along 97L's track. These rains may cause flooding problems, particularly since the region impacted has been under extreme drought this year. The drought has killed much of the vegetation that ordinarily would slow down run-off. In late June, Tropical Storm Arlene brought flooding rains in excess of ten inches (250mm) to the coast just north of where 97L is expected to make landfall. These floods killed 22 people.



Figure 2. On June 30, 2011, Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall near Cabo Rojo in Veracruz, Mexico. The impact of Arlene’s heavy rain was clear in early July as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead. MODIS captured the top image on July 5, 2011. For comparison, the bottom image shows the same area on June 19, 2011. The images use a combination of visible and infrared light to increase contrast between water and land. Water varies from electric blue to navy. Depending on land cover, areas above water range in color from green to brown. Clouds are pale to medium blue-green. A network of lakes extends inland from the city of Tampico. In the image from July 5, the lake network appears to have multiplied, with standing water covering large areas northwest and southwest of the city. Standing water is also apparent south of Cabo Rojo. Image credit: NASA.

The latest runs of the reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development over the next seven days,

I'll have a new post late this afternoon or early Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. Just waiting on the weather and the models to see if a storm off the East Coast pans out. In the meantime, the ITCZ is slowly but surely beginning that slow rise to the North and currently averaged in at around 8N (see link below). Not sure if we will get any CV storms between now and August but many of the coming waves over the next few weeks will be in a better position to trajectory into open water in the Eastern Caribbean/Lesser Antilles as opposed to grounding on SA.

Link

More indication the CV season may not ever get going. We'll see.
NWS, Wilmington, NC..may be some issues with dry air with the developing storm off the east coast

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER
OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN ACROSS
THE INLAND CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS INTO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS LATE SUN THROUGH MON. ALL MODELS ARE COMING ON
BOARD WITH THIS TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE INCREASED
SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON
WHILE DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. MAY SEE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

More indication the CV season may not ever get going. We'll see.


Note sure what you are referring to but it is quite the opposite; the peak of the CV season starts in mid-August through September and it WILL get going in earnest at that time......Mother Nature does not dissapoint on that one.
NAM has a low in the S.W.Caribbean....For the forth day in a row...

Wave visible in SW carribean. possible formation immenient?
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wave visible in SW carribean. possible formation immenient?



note even close
LOL... great second post.

You've got to make it more subtle if you want people to take the bait.
the peak of the CV season starts in mid-August through September and it WILL get going in earnest at that time......Mother Nature does not dissapoint on that one.

CV is like a "train gets a rollin' all the time"

:)
Quoting Tazmanian:



note even close
maybe it's the low in NAM hydrus mentioned.
Quoting Vincent4989:
maybe it's the low in NAM hydrus mentioned.


may be but you can this have one mode run saying some in you have too have all the mode runs going a long with it
Complete Update

Looks like Pottery is going to get a little wet in the next day or two :)

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





So what's the dolphin doin' in the southeast end of the pool?
Quoting aspectre:
So what's the dolphin doin' in the southeast end of the pool?


Back Later but LOL.....Looks like Flipper going up for the fish toss....... :)
Morning All.

Nice little wave @ 42.5W

Shear is low however, dry air is rather high.


Wow i wake up this moring and i see everybody has gotten very excited. For what i do not yet know...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

Looks like Pottery is going to get a little wet in the next day or two :)

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Looks so, indeed.
Yesterday "dozens" of houses lost their roofs to a very strong squall that blew through here at about 3:30pm.
I had some strong gusts, but what I found weird was the sound that the forest was making just to my south.
I thought it was a plane innitially, but I was not sure. Then the reports started coming in.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow i wake up this moring and i see everybody has gotten very excited. For what i do not yet know...


They found a Taz translator! =)

Hot and humid on the west coast of Florida today.

Taz, just kidding, please no re-port me.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
good looking tropical wave coming off africa


That is a good looking wave. It's about that time of year. Seriously dry air in the C-Atl however which should keep things at bay till the W-Atl & E-Caribbean.

Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update July 14th., 2011



Morning Bob, long time no see.


guys look at the surface maps for 06Z,00Z,18Z and 12Z in this order look at EX-/97L its moving back offshore eastward into the gulf
looks like we are going to get 98L in the SW Carib
Wow, it's been a long time Bob. I'm glad to see you back on here. Your contributions are much appreciated.
Blob watchin off South Carolina coast.


More blob a watchin in SW Caribbean.
This oughta warm the cockles of your heart. And the rest of you, too...

...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week...

Published: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:47:09 EDT

The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop into next week as a large area of high pressure is anticipated to circulate hot and humid air over much of the central and eastern U.S. Maximum heat index values of at least 100.F are likely across much of this area by the middle of next week, with heat index values in excess of 110.F possible over portions of these areas. Details...

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



National Weather Service Article...
It is great to see Bob.For the majority of the bloggers who post on here anymore,or teens and newbies, Bob is a official meterologist,not a student, a teenager or hobbyist,like most on the blog.Next to Masters his input I would respect to the upmost.Bob tells it like it is and usually is spot on.He takes little stock in long term model runs and coincides basically with the nhc which all should do.Hope yall treat him with respect and encourage him to post more often.This blog desperatly needs his wisdom and maturity.
Good Morning to all. Just added up my rainfall since August 1, 2010 I have received 13 inches at my house. Should have around 35 inches for this period of time. Today will be day 36 of 100 or greater when our average first day of 100 degree weather is July 11th.

The high pressure is suppose to move north early next week? We may be near 100 for 2 or 3 days and we have a 20 percent chance of rain, this is progress. I will believe it when I see it.

I see the eastern half of the U.S. has a cool front to drop their temps, enjoy your temporary relief. Temps are getting hotter in Texas and that High Pressure is forecast to move northeast next week.

The tropics get going and we have that large high pressure over the U.S. this could spell trouble.
Ma-On is getting big...

I must say that even though homegrown development from that front has very little model support, upper-level winds are forecast to be pretty favorable. Thus, if the system can stay offshore (unlikely) for a prolonged period of time, development may be possible.
533. SLU
Thunderstorm squalls cause damage to homes in Trinidad yesterday.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Wow, it's been a long time Bob. I'm glad to see you back on here. Your contributions are much appreciated.


TY. I am still around and posting on my blog. I kept forgetting to put the link here in the main blog. Time is alittle limited right now so I have been putting out videos only a few times a week. I tend to put quick updates more on Facebook, especially when there is a storm out there, so if anyone wants to friend me there they can, just follow the link in my blog.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This oughta warm the cockles of your heart. And the rest of you, too...


...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week...

Published: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:47:09 EDT

The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop into next week as a large area of high pressure is anticipated to circulate hot and humid air over much of the central and eastern U.S. Maximum heat index values of at least 100.F are likely across much of this area by the middle of next week, with heat index values in excess of 110.F possible over portions of these areas. Details...

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



National Weather Service Article...


Our area up here in Upper Michigan has heat warnings starting this weekend. Since we tend to be cooler than most of the country, a lot of places don't have AC. There could be quite a few problems with older folks. Lake Superior should be seeing some swimmers.

Has anyone said what this might do to the power grid? Blackouts would be deadly.
Quoting pottery:

Looks so, indeed.
Yesterday "dozens" of houses lost their roofs to a very strong squall that blew through here at about 3:30pm.
I had some strong gusts, but what I found weird was the sound that the forest was making just to my south.
I thought it was a plane innitially, but I was not sure. Then the reports started coming in.


Need to tie down those palm leaf roofs a bit tighter mate! LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
This oughta warm the cockles of your heart. And the rest of you, too...


...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week...

Published: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:47:09 EDT

The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop into next week as a large area of high pressure is anticipated to circulate hot and humid air over much of the central and eastern U.S. Maximum heat index values of at least 100.F are likely across much of this area by the middle of next week, with heat index values in excess of 110.F possible over portions of these areas. Details...

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



National Weather Service Article...


This is going to last at least two weeks from what I gather off the Climate Prediction Centers 6-10 adn 8-14 day forcast. I know long range models are low in accuracy, but I do not have a good feeling about this heat wave. What are the odds this high pressure is just going to park itself over the Midwest for month? Isn't this the same high that has been baking Texas for the last 2 months? Any models show a front coming through at any time in the Midwest?
Speaking of heat, it probably won't get any hotter than this:

The July 1936 Heat Wave

Anyone remember the 1995 Chicago heat wave. It killed over 700 people in Chicago alone.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I must say that even though homegrown development from that front has very little model support, upper-level winds are forecast to be pretty favorable. Thus, if the system can stay offshore (unlikely) for a prolonged period of time, development may be possible.


Yeah, well I think the big hindering factor will be the elongated front making it hard to get a low pressure center to consolidate and have a shot at development. It will need time to do that.
Wow Jason,

That does look like a big wave leaving Africa.
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update July 14th., 2011


Hi Bob,

Glad to see you back on the main blog..You listed three areas that are at most risk this season, is that list in likely strikes order of where you think tropical development will happen at or just 3 areas in no general order? (I hope that made sense)

Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.
Quoting ncstorm:


Hi Bob,

Glad to see you back on the main blog..You listed three areas that are at most risk this season, is that list in likely strikes order of where you think tropical development will happen at or just 3 areas in no general order? (I hope that made sense)

Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.


In no general order. But I believe I would list Central and South Florida first, then the Eastern U.S Coastline, then the Northern Gulf Coast.
544. SLU
45 west wave

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
It is great to see Bob.For the majority of the bloggers who post on here anymore,or teens and newbies, Bob is a official meterologist,not a student, a teenager or hobbyist,like most on the blog.Next to Masters his input I would respect to the upmost.Bob tells it like it is and usually is spot on.He takes little stock in long term model runs and coincides basically with the nhc which all should do.Hope yall treat him with respect and encourage him to post more often.This blog desperatly needs his wisdom and maturity.


Let you in on a little secret I haven't posted...so am I.
Quoting capelookout:
Speaking of heat, it probably won't get any hotter than this:

The July 1936 Heat Wave

Anyone remember the 1995 Chicago heat wave. It killed over 700 people in Chicago alone.

I was living in Wrigglyville during that heat wave in a 680 sf apartment with no AC. I remember one day I just got fed up and drove to a Downers Grove movie theatre and watched the Brady Bunch movie. I'm sure it awful.
Quoting weatherguy03:


In no general order. But I believe I would list Central and South Florida first, then the Eastern U.S Coastline, then the Northern Gulf Coast.


Hey Bob, good to see you posting. Lurked here for a couple years, and just recently started posting.
548. beell
Homegrown development seems unlikely off the SE coast. Mentioned this earlier in the week-Ridging centered over the NE builds back in fairly strong.

A more likely area for weak low pressure would be along the gulf coast/FL panhandle area at the end of the stalled cold front in conjunction with an E to W trough along the coast.

Quiet.
Quoting weatherguy03:


In no general order. But I believe I would list Central and South Florida first, then the Eastern U.S Coastline, then the Northern Gulf Coast.


Thanks!
Looking at the models and the current conditions in the Atlantic, development isn't very likely to happen over the weekend except maybe off the US Coast. The area of showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean is becoming more prudent today but the steering currents will cause any development to move into Central America over the next few days, making development unlikely. With the possibility of a trough split however, sometimes its not always best to take stock 100% what the models say and no models at this time develop this, but conditions will be favorable off the coast and should be monitored for either sub-tropical or tropical development. However this is unlikely to happen as upper level ridging should push this into the coast and bring squally weather to the SE CONUS.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
It is great to see Bob.For the majority of the bloggers who post on here anymore,or teens and newbies, Bob is a official meterologist,not a student, a teenager or hobbyist,like most on the blog.Next to Masters his input I would respect to the upmost.Bob tells it like it is and usually is spot on.He takes little stock in long term model runs and coincides basically with the nhc which all should do.Hope yall treat him with respect and encourage him to post more often.This blog desperatly needs his wisdom and maturity.


Careful now....all meteorologists are not the NHC, and are not "supposed to" hold the same opinions as they do. They would not be meteorologists otherwise. However, we all point the public to the NHC for official information to base their decisions off of.

That said, I fully agree. Bob is well-respected and we are privileged to have him around.
Seems like with that persistent ridge around no matter where it forms it gets pushed westward into land. That's not a blessing once Cape Verde season is around if the ridge is still in place, if there are no troughs to pick it up.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, July 24th, with Video


Thanks Levi. Bad news for Japan.
554. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Seems like with that persistent ridge around no matter where it forms it gets pushed westward into land. That's not a blessing once Cape Verde season is around if the ridge is still in place, if there are no troughs to pick it up.


Well, that kind of a ridge is only dangerous for the U.S. if it lifts north a bit. The way it is now, central America will be the only ones to get hit. However, in similar seasons, that ridge starts to lift north more in August and September, opening up the U.S. as well as the northern Caribbean islands to potential hits.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, well I think the big hindering factor will be the elongated front making it hard to get a low pressure center to consolidate and have a shot at development. It will need time to do that.


Yeah, it's not that likely. Honestly, I am starting to think we will not see development until August.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, it's not that likely. Honestly, I am starting to think we will not see development until August.


Possibly.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This oughta warm the cockles of your heart. And the rest of you, too...

...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week...

Published: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:47:09 EDT

The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop into next week as a large area of high pressure is anticipated to circulate hot and humid air over much of the central and eastern U.S. Maximum heat index values of at least 100.F are likely across much of this area by the middle of next week, with heat index values in excess of 110.F possible over portions of these areas. Details...

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



National Weather Service Article...


It might get to 100F in Fargo? YUCK!!! I thought this was supposed to be a COOL summer for us! :(
Great example that major tropical cyclones still develop in the midst of strong MJO downward motion pulses, and entire basins can remain basically quiet under the upward motion pulses:

i see a spin on the tropical wave at 45 west
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at the models and the current conditions in the Atlantic, development isn't very likely to happen over the weekend except maybe off the US Coast. The area of showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean is becoming more prudent today but the steering currents will cause any development to move into Central America over the next few days, making development unlikely. With the possibility of a trough split however, sometimes its not always best to take stock 100% what the models say and no models at this time develop this, but conditions will be favorable off the coast and should be monitored for either sub-tropical or tropical development. However this is unlikely to happen as upper level ridging should push this into the coast and bring squally weather to the SE CONUS.


I see the same steering patterns of last year. Any thoughts?
Morning all.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
In respnse to Andrew Tx.I take it you must be very young or do not own property.or have stock in any business.I for one having been impacted, by Katrina,Camille,fredrick,elena,georges,i would prefer 0 storms or all fish storms.As far as the insurance industries,i feel in the near futre that wind an flood will not be available to anyone by private inustry.that is folks living anywhere near the coastline.It will be like we have in ms. a state ran wind pool.But what can i say no one holds a gun to our head and makes us live close to the coast lol.As far as the current stae of the tropics Nhc has a big zilcho I think i will believe thier take on the ever changing ridges and mojo thats postd on here second by second.But in jest we could have a pre pre pre pre pre invest on the 420 hr gfs to post 300 times about lol.That was meant to be a little early morning humour.And to tex not picking on you, i hope it stays boring for the next 50 years.Anyway God bless and have a great day.
Well, well, well. I see the saint is alive and well and posting acerbically as per the usual.... lol.... good to see you in the blog, man. I agree with you on the zilch and fish... wish we could keep it coming for a few more years so pple can get out of the economic hole they are in, if for no other reason. Unfortunately, overall setup doesn't seem to be favoring our party...
Quoting capelookout:
Speaking of heat, it probably won't get any hotter than this:

The July 1936 Heat Wave

Anyone remember the 1995 Chicago heat wave. It killed over 700 people in Chicago alone.
I remember that heat wave because it caused a series of derechos that went through my area. I was 9yo at the time and it scared the ever-living crap out of me.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, it's not that likely. Honestly, I am starting to think we will not see development until August.


Maybe, but remember though just last month we were saying it wasn't very likely, but possible, we'd get a storm in June and sure enough - Arlene popped up the last week. And just last year in July we where saying the same thing and Bonnie came around, although that's not really saying much.. Bonnie was pretty darn weak.
Quoting capelookout:
Speaking of heat, it probably won't get any hotter than this:

The July 1936 Heat Wave

Anyone remember the 1995 Chicago heat wave. It killed over 700 people in Chicago alone.

I certainly hope it's not as bad as that killer 1995 Chicago heat wave, though with heat indices all across the Midwest and Southeast expected to be in the high 90s and low 100s, I fear this one will become a killer.

At any rate, many (but far from all) of the records from the 1936, 1980, and 1995 heat waves have already been broken this year--and it's only July 14th, meaning we're not even halfway through the middle of summer.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wonder if that's still true after the Tsunami for the northern part of the counntry.
After the worst destruction that any country could endured, Hirochina, Nagazaki,they resucitated, overcame, changed their views, instead of war,imperialism, they chose, science, technology, and wisdom, to become one the most peaceful but yet develop and economically powerful countries in the world; so I think that this tragedy will become another boost to this amazing nation.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I see the same steering patterns of last year. Any thoughts?


Right now yeah, the mean synoptic steering pattern is roughly the same. But as Levi just said, in similar years we see a northward retreat of that ridge, leading to more US strikes.
Quoting Levi32:


Well, that kind of a ridge is only dangerous for the U.S. if it lifts north a bit. The way it is now, central America will be the only ones to get hit. However, in similar seasons, that ridge starts to lift north more in August and September, opening up the U.S. as well as the northern Caribbean islands to potential hits.

Levi do any reliable models show the texas ridge backing off to allow tropical moisture into the US gulf coast because its mad dry there
Quoting Levi32:


Well, that kind of a ridge is only dangerous for the U.S. if it lifts north a bit. The way it is now, central America will be the only ones to get hit. However, in similar seasons, that ridge starts to lift north more in August and September, opening up the U.S. as well as the northern Caribbean islands to potential hits.


I think of Katrina and Rita paths with the ridge over the midwest
here the tropical wave i am watching right now!!
Quoting Levi32:
Great example that major tropical cyclones still develop in the midst of strong MJO downward motion pulses, and entire basins can remain basically quiet under the upward motion pulses:

I've always thought the MJO was a bit over rated as an indicator of anything. What we're seeing in the Western Pacific is the equivalent of an isolated thunderstorm breaking the cap in a big way. Its isolation can lead to the formation of the Mother of all supercells, or the Mother of all typhoons. A monster in the making, cruel and pitiless in her objectives.


TYPHOON MA-ON PASSING NORTH OF AGRIHAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MA-ON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
150 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
355 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN...AND
465 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THIS SPEED WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON MA-ON
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
713 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

PMZ161-150800-
KOROR PALAU-
713 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF PALAU...

AT 400 PM CHST...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF KOROR
AND YAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAINTAINS RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER KOROR AND YAP.

NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SURF TO BUILD
ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH SWELL FROM
TYPHOON MA-ON...CURRENTLY NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COULD COMBINE WITH THE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
AND CAUSE COMBINED SEAS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.
527 Neapolitan "This oughta warm the cockles of your heart. And the rest of you, too"...
...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week... ...hpc.ncep.noaa. temperature map...

Time to take the cure?
576. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, it's not that likely. Honestly, I am starting to think we will not see development until August.


Still 2 weeks and a bit left in the month of July and my experience has taught me that 2 weeks is a very long time in the tropics. A lot can happen within that time frame.
Extended HPC Discussion

RESIDUAL TROUGHING NEAR THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COASTS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
ENOUGH 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO TO KEEP
A WEAK LOW MOVING JUST OFFSHORE GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE OUT TO SEA.
Quoting SLU:


Still 2 weeks and a bit left in the month of July and my experience has taught me that 2 weeks is a very long time in the tropics. A lot can happen within that time frame.


True, but the GFS continues the trend of unfavorable upper-level winds across much of the Caribbean, with the possible exceptions of the southwest and western portion.

With the exception of homegrown development (either from tropical waves or stalled out fronts), I think we will be hard pressed to see another storm.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I've always thought the MJO was a bit over rated as an indicator of anything. What we're seeing in the Western Pacific is the equivalent of an isolated thunderstorm breaking the cap in a big way. Its isolation can lead to the formation of the Mother of all supercells, or the Mother of all typhoons. A monster in the making, cruel and pitiless in her objectives.


Easterly winds (and the evaporation rate) weaken near the western edge of the suppressed convection region, and this leads to low-level moisture convergence. This triggers deep convection, leading to the other half of the OLR oscillation, i.e. the region of enhanced convection. This region is comprised of one or more super cloud clusters (SCCs) that move eastward along with the MJ wave. Within the SCCs, westward-moving cloud clusters form at the eastern edge of the SCC and die at the western edge. These smaller clusters have a lifetime of one to two days. In turn, the individual mesoscale convective systems within these smaller clusters typically move eastward, usually by discrete propagation, and have a lifetime of 6-12 hours. The SCCs travel eastward at 5-10 m/s, not as a long-lived storm complex, but rather as a moving wave or oscillation, i.e. the MJO. The MJO has a wavenumber of 1-2, that is at any time there are one or two areas around the equator with enhanced convection, and one or two with suppressed convection.

Actually, it's not overrated. It worked well last season, as pretty much every time during June and July when the MJO came out to octant 1, we had development in the Caribbean
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 14N39W TO 7N40W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER W DUE TO
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WELL W OF THE PREVIOUS WAVE LOCATION. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
here the tropical wave i am watching right now!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I certainly hope it's not as bad as that killer 1995 Chicago heat wave, though with heat indices all across the Midwest and Southeast expected to be in the high 90s and low 100s, I fear this one will become a killer.

At any rate, many (but far from all) of the records from the 1936, 1980, and 1995 heat waves have already been broken this year--and it's only July 14th, meaning we're not even halfway through the middle of summer.
Good morning all. I don't understand why people don't buy a small 5,000 BTU window A/C and install it in a room to keep cool. I have them in my mobile home, and I can lift it, install it, and take it out and clean it. I keep one running while I am gone and it keeps the home cool in an area of 420 Sq ft. They cost $100.00 at Home Depot.
Core looking better.
By the way, whenever someone posts the TPW loop or Microwave loop (.gif files) from CIMSS it freezes my browser, and i get the spinning wheel of death. I'd appreciate if people would link those instead of post them, as they are the only animations that do that to my computer.

mitibushi ac they just began selling in the us theyve been using them in the tropics for along time
Quoting Hurrykane:


Easterly winds (and the evaporation rate) weaken near the western edge of the suppressed convection region, and this leads to low-level moisture convergence. This triggers deep convection, leading to the other half of the OLR oscillation, i.e. the region of enhanced convection. This region is comprised of one or more super cloud clusters (SCCs) that move eastward along with the MJ wave. Within the SCCs, westward-moving cloud clusters form at the eastern edge of the SCC and die at the western edge. These smaller clusters have a lifetime of one to two days. In turn, the individual mesoscale convective systems within these smaller clusters typically move eastward, usually by discrete propagation, and have a lifetime of 6-12 hours. The SCCs travel eastward at 5-10 m/s, not as a long-lived storm complex, but rather as a moving wave or oscillation, i.e. the MJO. The MJO has a wavenumber of 1-2, that is at any time there are one or two areas around the equator with enhanced convection, and one or two with suppressed convection.
quote B. Geerts and M. Wheeler ;)
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/ mjo.html
586. DEKRE
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. I don't understand why people don't buy a small 5,000 BTU window A/C and install it in a room to keep cool. I have them in my mobile home, and I can lift it, install it, and take it out and clean it. I keep one running while I am gone and it keeps the home cool in an area of 420 Sq ft. They cost $100.00 at Home Depot.


You also have to pay for the electric consumption.
Quoting IceCoast:
Core looking better.
By the way, whenever someone posts the TPW loop or Microwave loop (.gif files) from CIMSS it freezes my browser, and i get the spinning wheel of death. I'd appreciate if people would link those instead of post them, as they are the only animations that do that to my computer.



yes agreed samething happens to mine so yes please can you guys put the TPW animations on a link

Actually, it's not overrated. It worked well last season, as pretty much every time during June and July when the MJO came out to octant 1, we had development in the Caribbean

I think it being overrated is overrated.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow i wake up this moring and i see everybody has gotten very excited. For what i do not yet know...
We got bored with being bored.... lol

Quoting weatherguy03:


In no general order. But I believe I would list Central and South Florida first, then the Eastern U.S Coastline, then the Northern Gulf Coast.
That's prolly chronologically accurate as well... yes?

Quoting Levi32:
Great example that major tropical cyclones still develop in the midst of strong MJO downward motion pulses, and entire basins can remain basically quiet under the upward motion pulses:

That explains why Ma-on has been struggling so much... basin features are tending towards downward motion on the whole.... Just imaginge what the WPac would be like right now if MJO was over there giving that storm a boost...

Quoting DEKRE:


You also have to pay for the electric consumption.
I run my a/c 24/7 and my electric bill is around $100.00. In the winter my electric bill is 60.00. They run on 110 current and it is worth a life. Especially the elderly and young children who have a hard time controlling their body temps.
Wave between Africa and the Caribean is pretty much surrounded by dry air, I am actually surprised it has gained convection, but i don't see it developing, even if it makes it to the caribean wind shear there is just not optimal for development, not to mention the fact that it would be steered towards central america or mexico. So I'm not sweating this one much.
Anyone now adays can afford a small AC unit just so they have a cool room to go to if they get too hot.
100$ for the unit + maybe another 15.00 a month just to keep one room cool, well worth it. The bigger problem is people who do not have any AC and finally get a small unit tend to run it all the time instead of just when they really need it, therefore the affordability issue becomes a problem.