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Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1502. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:


Bad idea, he provides a lot of info here.


ROFLMAO
I got a feeling today's going to be gruesome on the blog so I'm going to RTLS this shuttle out and I'll talk to you all when the next ECMWF run comes out a 3 pm.
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).
1506. scott39
Goodmorning, Are any of the reliable models sniffing out an early Cape Verde TC?
Quoting btwntx08:

umm tell ike thats off already its raining here
Aussie! How's things?
1509. 7544
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start
1510. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:


ROFLMAO


...
I wouldn't be shocked if they downgrade TD#2 to a tropical wave after the season is over :)
1512. calder
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).


yup apparently so

I am never listening to the NHC again, instead I will listen to the people on here, after all they know more right?

*rolls eyes*
Quoting sarahjola:
i think i see a spin by the Yucatan, and there also seems to be a small spin off the e. coast of Florida. there is also an area down in the southern Caribbean. can anyone clarify what I'm seeing? thanks in advance:)
1515. Patrap
Orleans

Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Coastal Flood Statement

Statement as of 3:56 AM CDT on July 08, 2010

Astronomical high tides will remain above normal through
Friday... but the threat of coastal flooding is decreasing as
atmospheric pressures rise and southeasterly winds decrease.
While coastal flooding is no longer expected... water levels at
time of high tide... through noon today... will run about a foot to
a foot and a half above predicted values. This may produce local
minor flooding in particularly flood prone locations.
You know what's funny? I take someone off ignore and within two days they pull something ignorant and they go right back on again...the arrogance I see here from some is not warranted given their track records
1517. cg2916
Quoting 7544:
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start


That's just stupid (no offense intended). The NHC doesn't want to just use up names. Heck, by 2 PM it'll have already started weakening. It's not even a closed low anymore.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I wouldn't be shocked if they downgrade TD#2 to a tropical wave after the season is over :)

that doesnt need to be a similey and NO they WILL NOT :P
Quoting sailingallover:

Jeff,
What are you using to predict the pattern change? We have had the current one a month now and sooner or later it will change but I am looking for some forecasting tools to at least get an idea of what it will change too.
I wouldn't give up on higher numbers for the season just yet but getting close..


To be honest I thought it just doesn't appear to be as active as previously thought in my opinion due to the fact the ITCZ is further south then what I would like but with that said August thru October will be very active with many systems hitting the US and I am concerned for the east coast of FL if this Bermuda situates itself over the SW Atlantic with troughing over the eastern US. This troughing could be very concerning down the road.
Quoting 7544:
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start

If the NHC did that, they would become a laughing stock.
1521. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).


They did the right thing sending recon in this morning.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).



If they were more consistant with there designation practices, it would not be this way.
1523. Patrap
1524. cg2916
Quoting AussieStorm:

If the NHC did that, they would become a laughing stock.


They already are with some on the blog.

BRB
1525. Patrap
Los Open Wave..?
1517 what part of a nw wind mean its there sorry
Quoting StormW:


Not too much. How have you been? How's the back doing?


I'm good...been busy getting ready for what may be a nasty storm season...the back is good; bothers me sometimes but nothing like before, thanks for asking
1528. Patrap
1529. angiest
Quoting katroy:


Thank you. Do you know if it just an oversight that the main page appears as if there are two systems (one for Tropical Depression Two and another for 96L)? I don't remember seeing anything like this with previous storms or in previous seasons. Thanks much!


It happens sometime after an invest is classed as a TC. Maybe the webmaster is on vacation. ;)
Quoting Floodman:
Aussie! How's things?

Hey Flood, Going fine mate, other than the flu which is slowing down my training/exercise, but it'll be soon out of my system. Did you get to talk to Paul yet, WU-mail me if you have.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).



If they were more consistant with there designation practices, it would not be this way.


Actually if people actually took the time to understand what the criteria was for a tropical cyclone and not be so fixated on the appearance of the system; maybe they would understand a bit better

I feel they were right on all the systems in question - 90L, 92L and 95L were did not meet the requirements. 96L did
So this front i got pictured caused this 10" of rain and not that little swirly thing on here.......HORRIBLE INFO....HORRIBLE

1534. Patrap
S, s, s, Sallllllllllllllllll


Quoting calder:
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.



The TPC (NHC to some of you) does an absoloutly wonderful job of forecasting where storms are going only after the storm is well developed.
personaly it will stay a td in post season cause it will be dumping more rain here and flooding will be worse just like last week
1538. Patrap
Fascinating,,eh TS ?

LOL
1539. NRAamy
SQUAWK!!!!
1540. FLdewey
Seems like someone's prescription ran out recently. So much stress over a tiny little storm.
Quoting calder:
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.


I would disagree in that they were wrong on the July 5 18Z TWO when they lowered 95L to "near 0%". They know that rapid organization/dissipation occurs and there is no skill in forecasting it. Never discount a potential system untill it has dissipated.
1542. cg2916
Quoting sailingallover:


Subtropical feature forming.
1544. FLdewey


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081453Z - 081630Z

IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BRIEF FUNNEL/TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL VICINITY. AN
UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY OCCUR WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

MODESTLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTH TX COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
FAR SOUTH TX/RIO GRANDE VICINITY DURING THE DAY. CONSULT NHC
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE LATEST FORECASTS. A COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FUNNELS/TORNADOES INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS CURRENTLY MODEST PER
CRP/HGX/BRO WSR-88D VWP DATA...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIRMASS/POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...COMBINED WITH A
FRICTIONALLY-ENHANCED NEAR-SHORE ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE...WILL SUPPORT FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
AS ADDITIONAL BANDS PIVOT ASHORE. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT
THINKING THAT FLOW AROUND 1 KM SHOULD AT LEAST REACH 30-35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO MODESTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SRH/LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALSO
DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX.
1545. cg2916
You know what, next time I poof someone, it'll be in another language. How about Dutch?

Flikker
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!
Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport
Lat: 26.16 Lon: -97.34 Elev: 19
Last Update on Jul 8, 9:53 am CDT


Light Rain Fog/Mist

82 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: NW 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.75" (1007.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 92 °F (33 °C


Honestly, they won't classify 90L in May of 2009, 92L (which had an eye) of June of 2009, they almost never named Grace. Now this year, they didn't classify 95L, but they can name a disorganized mess in the GOM, which HAD a circulation, with dying convection. Not good judgement at all in my opinion.
1549. calder
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would disagree in that they were wrong on the July 5 18Z TWO when they lowered 95L to "near 0%". They know that rapid organization/dissipation occurs and there is no skill in forecasting it. Never discount a potential system untill it has dissipated.


ok, i agree with that. However, the chaos that ensued on the blog when they raised it to 60 then back to 0 was just ridiculous..
Quoting IKE:


They did the right thing sending recon in this morning.


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.
1551. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!


Poof
11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?
1554. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.


The missions they were flying...they're higher up in the atmosphere and can't detect a circulation or can they?
Quoting StormW:


Glad to hear. I know you had a rough time with it.


Yeah, but the relief after surgery was a tangible thing...any pain I have now is a pale echo by comparison
1556. scott39
The horse is dead!
If they had sent recon into 95L it could have easily been upgraded the day before it made landfall in LA
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Plus what is the computing power of the on-board SFMR? Since it was developed in the 90s, like most government applications probably has not seen an upgrade in technology.
But, why couldn't that be done on shore as a final QC check?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Flood, Going fine mate, other than the flu which is slowing down my training/exercise, but it'll be soon out of my system. Did you get to talk to Paul yet, WU-mail me if you have.


You have mail!
1560. SQUAWK
AMY!!!!!!

How is Rock and Roll??
Me featured on a Official Website of the United States Government.


Restore The Gulf.gov
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
If they had sent recon into 95L it could have easily been upgraded the day before it made landfall in LA

i think NOT
Quoting putintang3:
ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?



Watch the ATL off of the Carolinas.
Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.
The wave in the Caribbean is becoming better organized. Also, the one near the Leeward islands is organizing. Almost every feature starts spinning early this year! Watch for floods in Texas! Turn around, don't drown is true.
No matter the criteria set to designate a system, there will always be marginal systems to that criteria. Maybe some day we will have a geosynchronous real time Scatterometer/Microwave satellite to instantly identify wind speed/direction and core structure.

Unless we set the criteria to over water, moisture present, wind present. We will then name thunderstorms.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
If they had sent recon into 95L it could have easily been upgraded the day before it made landfall in LA


It was still attached to the frontal boundary at that point; again the basic definition of a tropical cyclone is it has to be non-frontal in nature; 95L was frontal in nature over all of its lifetime with the exception of the last 3 hours before landfall

Had it shed that front even 12 hours earlier, I agree with you it probably could have gotten classified, but it didn't
Quoting putintang3:
ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?
i think i see a spin by the Yucatan, and there also seems to be a small spin off the e. coast of Florida. there is also an area down in the southern Caribbean. can anyone clarify what I'm seeing? thanks in advance:)
Quoting atmoaggie:
But, why couldn't that be done on shore as a final QC check?


We would have to wait more than 10 minutes to see the data :)
96L is aiming at Louisiana
Amazing
From now on, each disturbance will initially have a 0-100% probability of development. O.K.?
Quoting StormW:


That's good!


I like to think so...LOL
New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.
1574. Becca36
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!

You and me both! :)
Some very Strong waves in the ITCZ.....with the ITCZ climbing North...and now we got all of this running smack into MJO .....buckle up and pull the straps on tight!









1576. Squid28
Quoting Floodman:
You know what's funny? I take someone off ignore and within two days they pull something ignorant and they go right back on again...the arrogance I see here from some is not warranted given their track records


So true....
1577. FLdewey
Welcome to Chuck E. Cheese
TD Two/Former 96L would have been MUCH better off if it had formed into a TD in the Caribbean, then it would have likely moved much farther north than Alex, and would have stood a much better chance at TS/Hurricane Bonnie.
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!

You and me both! :)


Cheap entertainment no doubt.
That is the reason I don't ever "poof" anyone!
we had a closed low
Conditions at PTIT2 as of
(9:36 am CDT)
1436 GMT on 07/08/2010: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
this link info showed a west wind on here look
Link
I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now
Look at that vorticity off the east coast of US



Dry air is bieng cut off



Convergence:



Dropping shear


Quoting IKE:


The missions they were flying...they're higher up in the atmosphere and can't detect a circulation or can they?


Not really, difficult to interpolate the wind direction at 12K feet to near surface and as far as I am aware there is no directional component to the SFMR, only windspeed. The 3D Radar they were researching would give an indication, but I don't know how realtime that data is currently available.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!


You know, the way you're flailing around, one would think someone had struck a nerve or something...you OK?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.


Welcome. I am a self-professed "weather weenie" too.
1587. Patrap
Ohm,..Ohm..


Nirvana has been attained.

Now for some mo java.
Other than a slight relaxing and shift east beginning of next week, then slight shift north but with Higher pressures the B/A high is going to remain the dominant Atlantic factor. Slight window of decreased dust next week from the shift east but winds >20+knots of the African coast will keep most of the MDR dusted for the next 180hours.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Some very Strong waves in the ITCZ.....with the ITCZ climbing North...and now we got all of this running smack into MJO .....buckle up and pull the straps on tight!











The wave near 40W appears well-organized. That needs to be monitored if it can lift enough to miss South America.

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)


Quoting Floodman:


I'm good...been busy getting ready for what may be a nasty storm season...the back is good; bothers me sometimes but nothing like before, thanks for asking
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now

I don't know why either. It looks like it could develop into something subtropical.JMO
000
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

1595. Patrap
Seems the NHC wants to dismiss this nightmare away FAST.

LOL
Quoting Floodman:


You know, the way you're flailing around, one would think someone had struck a nerve or something...you OK?


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!
Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, they won't classify 90L in May of 2009, 92L (which had an eye) of June of 2009, they almost never named Grace. Now this year, they didn't classify 95L, but they can name a disorganized mess in the GOM, which HAD a circulation, with dying convection. Not good judgement at all in my opinion.


I usually don't go on the offensive against a NHC call, I didn't for 95L or TD2.. but I will admit the 90L in May 2009 might not have been fully thought through. Even NWS outfits were calling 90L a tropical storm. 90L was a tropical storm, QuikSCAT (RIP) had shown a well defined COC with winds over 40 mph. It also sustained convection for over 6 hours (something that 95L didn't btw, it was attached to a front) I was shocked that 90L wasn't called an unnamed TS.






(ps got these from stormchaser and weather456)
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)




Congratulations! The key to staying on top of it, even after a successful surgery, is to stay active...it's easy to just sit and be comfortable, but that only makes matters worse

Keep up the hard work (I know it's hard work...trust me)
1599. 7544
landfall next
Thank you for your replies. I do not usually get an answer from anyone. I dont really know any of the scientific jargon. I just like to watch the forming of a storm. I also like to read all the difference of oppinions here. I have learned many things in the last few years from this blog. StormW and Patrap have been very informative, among a few others. Thank you all.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.

Welcome, If you want to ask Question's direct them to Levi, StormW, Weather456, maybe a few others.
Quoting tomas5tex:
000
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG



"And thats the way the cookie crumbles" CASE CLOSED!
1603. Patrap
..yada,yada,yada...

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I usually don't go on the offensive against a NHC call, I didn't for 95L or TD2.. but I will admit the 90L in May 2009 might not have been fully though through. Even NWS outfits were calling 90L a tropical storm. 90L was a tropical storm, QuikSCAT (RIP) had shown a well defined COC with winds over 40 mph. It also sustained convection for over 6 hours (something that 95L didn't btw, it was attached to a front) I was shocked that 90L wasn't called an unnamed TS.






(ps got these from stormchaser and weather456)


yea that is 1 system I think that should have gotten a TD or TS classification
1605. Patrap
Anytime putintang3, sharing is what we do here.

Most of us that iz.
1606. 7544
guess it was moving faster than they thought lol
no bonnie today
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now
Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.
Quoting Patrap:
..yada,yada,yada...



Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...
1609. Patrap
My Bonnie Lies over the Name List,
My Bonnie is not in the seas,

That Invest was Upgraded way to Soon,to TD..

So its no Bonnie today for you..
Tropics look quite with the exception of a possible CV threat in the next 10 days. ECMWF has pretty much dropped it, but the 12z will be interesting.
I'll bring my 6 year old cousin to the blog to blog on here at this rate. Don't worry she was the Vocab and writing ability of an 8 year old.
Quoting btwntx08:
we had a closed low
Conditions at PTIT2 as of
(9:36 am CDT)
1436 GMT on 07/08/2010: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
this link info showed a west wind on here look
Link

Link
1613. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.


imo, that sounds like the truth.
Later.
1614. Patrap
Quoting TampaTom:


Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...


A reality slap is always good for me and the masses.

Quoting SunriseSteeda:

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)



Congrats on your success. I also have a lower back injury that can leave me almost feeling paralytic.
Quoting 7544:
guess it was moving faster than they thought lol
no bonnie today

not really just 2 hrs ahead of schedule
Where will the low off North Carolina go??
Quoting AussieStorm:

Welcome, If you want to ask Question's direct them to Levi, StormW, Weather456, maybe a few others.

Thanks for the advice Aussie.You forgot to mention MH09.
Quoting btwntx08:

not really just 2 hrs ahead of schedule
Landfall last night was expected to be at 8PM EDT. So it is actually about 9 hours ahead of schedule.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!


I'm pretty convinced that half or better of the trolls here are kids, but this one has a little knowledge about him and he's rarely unpleasant to deal with...I don't think his post of the Depression/TS requirements was meant as a jab at you but more of a general informational thing, at least that's how I read it (he didn't add much to it, so intent may be hard to discern)...
we could really use a Wunderground forum... to have a bunch of threads going instead of one big mass of comments on a blog would be great
Quoting TampaSpin:


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!
Anyways who cares how old I am. Well with the exception of you of course.
Quoting TampaTom:


Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...


It's been posted numerous times so far this season and doesn't seem to have the intended effect...
Quoting Floodman:


I'm pretty convinced that half or better of the trolls here are kids, but this one has a little knowledge about him and he's rarely unpleasant to deal with...I don't think his post of the Depression/TS requirements was meant as a jab at you but more of a general informational thing, at least that's how I read it (he didn't add much to it, so intent may be hard to discern)...
Why would it be meant in an bad way? It was just a general statement.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.


SSTs in that area appear to be conducive for tropical instead of subtropical development.
Various reports coming in that Lebron James is going to Miami. WOW!!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Maybe the reason that I "challenge" (although "challenge" isn't the proper word) you every time is because you are incorrect.



THank you Mr. 13yo.....dang i am not smarter than a 5th grader....there you go i said it....everyone have fun in KIDDIE LAND!
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst.gif
seems there is more time spent on bickering than weather. i have been asking about the spin by the Yucatan, and off the southeast coast of Florida and the convection i see in the south Caribbean, and no one has answered that, but plenty of space on here spent on bickering. its a shame what this site has become over the last year. people used to be happy to give opinions on here and now it seems people don't want to give opinion anymore cuz they will have to argue about it.:(
11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

Quoting TampaSpin:



THank you Mr. 13yo.....dang i am not smarter than a 5th grader....there you go i said it....everyone have fun in KIDDIE LAND!
So you didn't "poof" me, eh?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyways who cares how old I am. Well with the exception of you of course.


Don't pay any attention to Tampa. He's just very egotistical and he believes he is never wrong. Plus, I have him on ignore from the last time he went off on you, so don't quote him. :-)
1635. FLdewey
Quoting ElConando:
I'll bring my 6 year old cousin to the blog to blog on here at this rate. Don't worry she was the Vocab and writing ability of an 8 year old.


LOL... well I'm pretty convinced a good potion of the "I'm xx years old" accounts are totally bogus. They slip up from time to time and comment in ways that blow their "cover". The worst current offender is the "grandma" who gets flustered and accidentally speaks like a teenager from time to time.

My background in cryptography makes them easy to spot... and fun to poke sticks at. ;)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why would it be meant in an bad way? It was just a general statement.


Dude, I'm saying you didn't do it as a slap in his face...
1637. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


And some Valium. LOL!


Some need some Aderol
I have officially turned into a very NOVICE meteorology junkie over the last month. Now I acnnot resist. Trying to get my inventory of informative web sites together so i can start learning the jargon and the meaning of the terms. Im a pretty quick learner, so bear with me an my apologies up front for any really stupid appearing questions!!
Quoting sarahjola:
seems there is more time spent on bickering than weather. i have been asking about the spin by the Yucatan, and off the southeast coast of Florida and the convection i see in the south Caribbean, and no one has answered that, but plenty of space on here spent on bickering. its a shame what this site has become over the last year. people used to be happy to give opinions on here and now it seems people don't want to give opinion anymore cuz they will have to argue about it.:(


It is too bad more people are complaining and not focusing on the fact that regardless of what TD 2 is, it is still causing flooding problems; you would think that would be the focus, but again egos get in the way

1640. 7544
ok we need 97l now to calm the blog down lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Landfall last night was expected to be at 8PM EDT. So it is actually about 9 hours ahead of schedule.

the 4 am was changed to around 1 pm actually
Quoting Floodman:


Dude, I'm saying you didn't do it as a slap in his face...
I didn't. Lol!
Good point Hurricanes101. One would think a weather blog would be for the benefit of early warning for those in danger from weather related events and not a testosterone fueled peeing contest...but that's just me.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Don't pay any attention to Tampa. He's just very egotistical and he believes he is never wrong. Plus, I have him on ignore from the last time he went off on you, so don't quote him. :-)
Consider him poofed. Enough of this stuff now, please.
Quoting StormW:


And some Valium. LOL!

pppssssstttt... I have plenty of that.
Looks like the 2010 and 2011 eastern conference finals will be between Orlando & Miami. King James vs. D Howard.
Quoting reedzone:


"And thats the way the cookie crumbles" CASE CLOSED!


Well done. You've called it correctly; in that TD2 couln't make it as a TS.
I just want to learn!!!!!!!!
Spoke with my husband this morning, he is on a derreck barge near South Padre Island. Seas pretty rough out there. The barge is on tow now, moving towards Galveston bay. Due to the speed of the storms movement, the marine advisory came a little late. Being that my husband is out there is the biggest reason I watch this blog.
1651. Drakoen
Recon found some 40knot flight level winds off-sore Texas.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Dude. Up until this point I had no idea you were that young. I figured you were a student at da U studying meteorology. You honestly sound more mature than many of the people I go to school with, and I'm a senior in college...
TD Two made landfall, but it may yet redevelop within the seas of the barrier islands.
1654. swlavp
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I have officially turned into a very NOVICE meteorology junkie over the last month. Now I acnnot resist. Trying to get my inventory of informative web sites together so i can start learning the jargon and the meaning of the terms. Im a pretty quick learner, so bear with me an my apologies up front for any really stupid appearing questions!!
I have found a very good place to start would be on STORMW's blog...He lists and gives a description of all of the Anagrams and words used in tropical discussions...I find it is very helpful and a Great place for a novice like me to start to understand the meaning of everything.
1656. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


LMAO! Meant to ask you, what's your next step toward your degree? I know it must seem like forever having to take all those classes.


Starting classes lol?
Quoting Drakoen:
Recon found some 40knot flight level winds off-sore Texas.


yea they just felt due to lack of organization that it didn't deserve to be named

weather.com just opened up their new beta version.
pretty cool
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Well done. You've called it correctly; in that TD2 couln't make it as a TS.

I disagree with the NHC classifying it a TD last night, but right before it made landfall, as it got out of Hurricane Alex's wake, it organized enough to me for this to be a decent looking TD, but nothing more. Again, I don't make assumptions anymore, I provide evidence with my forecasts, I had my reasons for downplaying this mess in the GOM.
1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.
Quoting AussieStorm:

pppssssstttt... I have plenty of that.


You're on the wrong side of the globe to be of much help with that...LOL
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
TD Two made landfall, but it may yet redevelop within the seas of the barrier islands.


????
1664. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Thought you were in college?


Starting in the fall
Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.

AS OF 12Z...THE BROAD UPPER CLOSED LOW IS ABOUT DONE WITH ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK AND IS NOW ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON AND
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL
CAP ERODES BY 18Z AND ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEATING UNTIL
THEN ALLOWS FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SO WE SHALL SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS INITIAL
FORECAST PERIOD A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES
EXCEPT IN A SHOWER THE VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR. THREAT OF SHOWERS
ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MAY PRODUCE
MVFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!
Quoting cctxshirl:
1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.


radar shows a band coming in from the ESE, so if it isn't raining now, it will be again soon
oh man look at that nasty squall just to my se
INVEST 90L 2009 chase cam video from Dauphin Island, AL. Notice all the trash in the road .What do you think should this one have been upgraded ?


Quoting Drakoen:
Recon found some 40knot flight level winds off-sore Texas.


Key there FLIGHT LEVEL.
any one know how much rain se texas/ beaumont will get fron this? much more and we will need a boat!!!
Quoting Floodman:


You're on the wrong side of the globe to be of much help with that...LOL

More for me then. LOL.

I have a feeling this wont be like this for long


with this developing
Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.
Quoting cctxshirl:
1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.


I'd expect to see more of that...funnel clouds that is (though the bickering in here is a pretty safe bet too)
1676. Becca36
Quoting StormW:


Hey Becca, how are you today? Still in the Tampa area?

Hi Storm,I'm great, how about you? No, we came home early Tuesday. Back in Boca Raton.
Quoting weatherman12345:
Where will the low off North Carolina go??



Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.


sometimes it is easier to have a well developed storm, seems there is less bickering here
I feel bad for Matamoros, Mexico.TD TWO's moisture is probably affecting the city.The city was 80% flooded thanks to Alex.
(BTW, Alex caused $1.21 billion in damages, and
killed 51 people.)
1681. Drakoen
Quoting Jeff9641:


Key there FLIGHT LEVEL.


Didn't realize they went back up into the mid levels of the atmosphere
Quoting Drakoen:


Starting classes lol?


Lol, Drak. You're such a smarta$$! LOL.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.
Cool wake probably wasn't enough...thunderstorms still developed around TD#2, probably dry air entrained into the system, and multiple low-level centers than never really organized.
Coming from you Storm, that is high praise indeed. I appreciate your work here and am so thankful to have found this blog. I just wish some here would recognize the purpose it serves ;)
1685. Patrap
"Hooper drives the Boat"..
storm- thanks for the info. very informative. will read your blog before i ask questions for now on:)thanks!
1688. Patrap
Toot,toot..

U betcha


Quoting Drakoen:


Starting in the fall

Brush up on your math...you gonna need it!
Quoting StormW:


Sounds reasonable. Should see much improved conditions near months end, and beginning of Aug.

I don't know about "improved" as I want the MDR quiet.
Looking at the 180 hour forecast the current pattern breaks down on at the end so figure around July 20-22 things fire up and I run and hide.
i off for now i need some rest and i'll be watching how much water we will get bbl all
Quoting sarahjola:
seems there is more time spent on bickering than weather. i have been asking about the spin by the Yucatan, and off the southeast coast of Florida and the convection i see in the south Caribbean, and no one has answered that, but plenty of space on here spent on bickering. its a shame what this site has become over the last year. people used to be happy to give opinions on here and now it seems people don't want to give opinion anymore cuz they will have to argue about it.:(


Boy ain't hat the truth!
1694. Patrap
1696. swlavp
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!
You're welcome...It helps me a lot!!!
btw TWC have fixed up the Beta version on there site
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see a reason that the circulation would open considering the favorable conditions in and around the system.
Quoting Drakoen:


Starting classes lol?


Go Noles!
I live about 60 miles due North of Houston.. IKE was my first experience. I am better prepared now.. Stored Fuel, water, etc. Ran the house for about 15 minutes on the generator yesterday so I'm ready...
Mornin' ....stuck in meeting all AM. See 96L made TD#2, then made landfall...If ONLY they could all do this! Anything interesting on the horizon?
1705. Patrap
1706. katroy
Quoting angiest:


It happens sometime after an invest is classed as a TC. Maybe the webmaster is on vacation. ;)


That would explain it! :D
It just confused me for a bit (I thought a whole new storm system developed overnight, but they seemed way too close together!).

Thanks again for responding.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!

Another blog to visit is Link
and Link.
Also check out this internet show, Link.
1708. Patrap
A Stern turn?
I'll probably go for a met degree of some sort in 2 years time. Today's my 16th birthday, so it won't be before to long until I get to college (I'm going into my Junior year next month)
Quoting StormW:


95L.

Was talking about 90L in 2009 not 95L and you seem to have problems with people that don't kiss up to you

Not sure what you trying to say by that post but the NHC was glued for about 5 hours watching my live streaming and the NWS Mobile used 4 of my reports for LSR's and even issued a severe storm warning with the text the wind will strip bark off trees. Just cause it the storm happened in May doesn't mean that it shouldn't have been upgraded.
11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

1714. bakers
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.
Wow - here are some pics of the damage in Monterrey, Mexico from Alex. I had no idea major freeways and bridges were washed out. Incredible.

Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't get me wrong.....this will be a very dangerous systemt moving into South Texas and Mexico as the ground are already full from Alex. But, there is in no way should this be named Bonnie and i really don't think it deserves TD status looking at it...i was on last night when it got updated and i could not believe the upgrade last night....i was hoping visible would shed some light! Visible did and it does not deserve much other than a tremendous rain maker that will be deadly.


Worth reposting from some time ago..
1717. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

1718. K8eCane
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.


Im sittin here in wilmington nc with my popcorn and coke and aint nothin goin on except skies a little gray...thats about it. These things usually dont amount to much and if they do, nothing too bad.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
I'll probably go for a met degree of some sort in 2 years time. Today's my 16th birthday, so it won't be before to long until I get to college (I'm going into my Junior year next month)


Happy 16th Birthday!!
1720. calder
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


It's July! Stop trying to stir the blog!
Why I didn't have bakers on ignore, I do not know. He's evidently stormtop. Only he talks in all caps like that.
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


Are you yelling for a reason?
Quoting Whatever98:
Wow - here are some pics of the damage in Monterrey, Mexico from Alex. I had no idea major freeways and bridges were washed out. Incredible.

Link

The two big cities I know of that were flooded and damaged by Alex were Monterrey and Matamoros. That was one intense storm.Great Pics BTW.
Quoting Floodman:


Are you yelling for a reason?

It is July...Typically the season doesn't get started until August.
Happy Birthday HurricaneKyle are you planing on going to University of South Alabama for your met degree ?
Quoting StormChaser81:
Me featured on a Official Website of the United States Government.


Restore The Gulf.gov
You go, dude!
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Go Noles!


You Know it. FSU forever.
1728. NRAamy
1722. Floodman 9:02 AM PDT on July 08, 2010
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


Are you yelling for a reason?



maybe it's STORMTOPS little brother?
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)


My LiveEarthRotation wallpaper on my phone looks like Africa is shooting a gun at us...what, 5 waves?
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Happy Birthday HurricaneKyle are you planing on going to University of South Alabama for your met degree ?


I don't think so, actually I have no idea what college I will go to but I do plan to send my application first to University of South Florida, its closest to home.
1733. bakers
No models are predicting tropical formation into the third week of July, maybe this just might turn out to be an average year. alot of strong waves and small little swirls not taking root and sprouting wings. that will usually dictate the rest of the season.
Looks like CV is having a parade of waves...
You aren't kidding. I live by the words "stay as active as you can tolerate". And it is certainly true that the more sedentary you are, the worse the suffering. After I return from Beijing (research at Tsinghua University), I start my first full-time semester as Phd student, but have also joined the softball intramural club and Shorinji Kempo. I take stairs instead of elevators, park a mile from campus instead of the parking garage etc. Hope your recovery and lifestyle is as positive ;)


Quoting Floodman:


Congratulations! The key to staying on top of it, even after a successful surgery, is to stay active...it's easy to just sit and be comfortable, but that only makes matters worse

Keep up the hard work (I know it's hard work...trust me)
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

Was talking about 90L in 2009 not 95L and you [snip]

Suggested reading...


Just sayin'
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.


Its weakening, and it doesn't have a closed low. It will likely be downgraded at the 1 PM CDT advisory.
1739. hydrus
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.
Why?
Hey Stormchaser81!
Thats way cool Bryan!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Suggested reading...


Just sayin'

LOL
Quoting SunriseSteeda:
You aren't kidding. I live by the words "stay as active as you can tolerate". And it is certainly true that the more sedentary you are, the worse the suffering. After I return from Beijing (research at Tsinghua University), I start my first full-time semester as Phd student, but have also joined the softball intramural club and Shorinji Kempo. I take stairs instead of elevators, park a mile from campus instead of the parking garage etc. Hope your recovery and lifestyle is as positive ;)




Not quite as active; my job keeps me sedentary much of the day...I do what I can...LOL
RE:1736


LOL!
Quoting StormChaser81:


You Know it. FSU forever.

Can't wait for the UM vs. fsu game.
Quoting bakers:
No models are predicting tropical formation into the third week of July, maybe this just might turn out to be an average year. alot of strong waves and small little swirls not taking root and sprouting wings. that will usually dictate the rest of the season.


You might want to reconsider your information...
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.


Using what criteria?
1747. FLdewey
I still think I have a chance of winning the lottery today.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hey Stormchaser81!
Thats way cool Bryan!


Didn't expect it at all. I knew they took video but had no idea where it was going.

I see now, That's the first day they launched that website.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
I'll probably go for a met degree of some sort in 2 years time. Today's my 16th birthday, so it won't be before to long until I get to college (I'm going into my Junior year next month)


Happy Birthday man. Thats awesome that you are going to get your meteorology degree. I am 28 years of age and wish I was 16 again. I too am going to try and get my meteorology degree in about 2 years from now, but man how I wish I was 18 doing it and not 30.
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.

Actually, active seasons can have slow starts. Just remember 2004.
And recommended tech-geek article for those that really don't like capslock:
Disable Caps Lock Key in Windows 7 or Vista
http://www.howtogeek.com/howto/windows-vista/disable-caps-lock-key-in-windows-vista/

Or, a program install for the non-registry editing-type, and works on XP: http://www.brainsystems.com/capsunlock/

(I hate the insert key a little more than capslock, myself. Turned it into another "Home" on a standard keyboard.)
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.
I don't see why they would do that considering that the circulation has made landfall and is now over land.
Hi all... good almost afternoon. Trying to stay dry today. It's not working out too well. :)
Quoting Floodman:


Using what criteria? Sorry my computer is acting funny,and I didn't see the graphs that were posted.I't looks like It already made landfall.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update!

July 8, 2010 - 12:15 PM EDT - Tropical Depression #2 Makes Landfall And Outlook

Great Blog! You sound VERY smart for your age.
1757. 900MB
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Actually, active seasons can have slow starts. Just remember 2004.


I'd bet there is another TD or 2 in next 10 days.
Ha, I hear ya. I been a software engineer my entire career and now a college student (again) these past two years, so sitting in one place is the norm. I have to force myself to move.

In the meantime, I have been keeping an eye on the tropics and this blog while here in China (thankful this is not one of the many blocked sites). I worry about my house and property and an active season.

Here they've no idea what a tropical storm or hurricane can do, or even is for the most part. Very strange climate here, too. 106 one day, 78 the next. Thunderstorms with no rain. Heavy rain means 1/2 inch, not a foot like at home. Sand storms more frequent than real storms, and so on.

I get weird looks when I wear my hurricane related t-shirts (Miami Hurricanes jersey, Katrina benefit softball tournament jersey, Wilma benefit tourney jersey). But they can name all the players on the Miami Heat when I wear my 2006 Champions shirt ;)

Quoting Floodman:


Not quite as active; my job keeps me sedentary much of the day...I do what I can...LOL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see why they would do that considering that the circulation has made landfall and is now over land.


Secret Swamp in S Texas?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great Blog! You sound VERY smart for your age.
Thank you. And welcome to the blog.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see why they would do that considering that the circulation has made landfall and is now over land.
I didn't see the graph that was posted because of my crappy computer.Sorry.Looks like it already made landfall.
Quoting ElConando:


Secret Swamp in S Texas?
Yep. Area cincuenta y uno.
I thought I saw yesterday a couple of waves coming off Africa... ok.. I am a NOVICE.. It was probably historical data from another year! ha!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Area cincuenta y uno.
51 in spanish.
1765. swlavp
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Area cincuenta y uno.
LOL Another UFO sighting?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update!

July 8, 2010 - 12:20 PM EDT - Tropical Depression #2 Makes Landfall And Outlook


Miaimi, you scared the crap outta me with that bold lettering and exclamation point an all. Ah say, easy now boy...I'm not a chicken, that's a chicken!

Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Area cincuenta y uno.


Shhh the Aliens hablan espanol!
Quoting Kristina40:
Looks like CV is having a parade of waves...

I think those waves are from the ITCZ, not Cape Verde.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Area cincuenta y uno.
Do you know Spanish?
Quoting mikatnight:


Miaimi, you scared the crap outta me with that bold lettering and exclamation point an all. Ah say, easy now boy...I'm not a chicken, that's a chicken!

LMAO!
wasn't Alex's cat 2 advisary over land. Frankly this is the best i've seen td2 and if winds are high enough I think Bonnie could form over land
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Actually, active seasons can have slow starts. Just remember 2004.


Absolutely true. It's quite common that the "mean season" doesn't really get going until late July or August. I forget which year had 7 systems in the tropical Atlantic at one time, later in the season (2003?).
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you know Spanish?
Very, very little. Learned some from my 3-year-old recently...(the kid gets things from videos and repeats them all the time. Can actually translate some.)
Quoting ElConando:


Shhh the Aliens hablan espanol!

ROFLMAO!!
1775. USSINS
Quoting WeatherFromtheSouth:
To those of you joking about evacuations earlier...

"By JORGE VARGAS, Associated Press Writer Jorge Vargas, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 40 mins ago

NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico – Reservoirs along the Texas-Mexico border rose to their highest levels in decades after days of drenching rain, forcing officials to close two border bridges Wednesday, dump water into flooded rivers and evacuate tens of thousands from homes as a new storm headed toward the region.

The dramatic rise of the Rio Grande caused by Hurricane Alex and continuing rains forced the closure of one major border crossing between downtown Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, and another crossing known as the Colombia Bridge, about 20 miles upriver.

Officials evacuated the flood-threatened Vega Verde subdivision in Del Rio, Texas, some 110 miles (180 kilometers) upstream from Laredo, while high waters in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila have already damaged some 10,000 homes — many swamped in waist-deep water.

"That means there are 40,000 people who don't have any place to sleep," Gov. Humberto Moreira told the Televisa network Wednesday.

To the southeast, Mexican officials evacuated nearly 18,000 people from houses in Ciudad Anahuac for fear that water would overflow the Venustiano Carranza dam and threaten lives. Mexico's National Water Commission said the dam currently had the largest emergency water release in the country.

Ciudad Anahuac Mayor Santos Garza Garcia said at least 1,500 homes had been flooded in the town of Rodriguez, across the Salado River from his city.

Officials in Laredo urged residents of low-lying areas to evacuate.

An airplane on an inspection tour of the flood zone crashed Wednesday, killing the mayor of the border town of Piedras Negras, the state public works director, a municipal civil defense official, a government photographer and the pilot and co-pilot. The plane was flying over a rain-swollen reservoir about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Eagle Pass, Texas, when it went down, said Ricardo Castillo, a spokesman for the border state of Coahuila.

Hurricane Alex dumped heavy rains on the region last week, causing flooding that killed at least 12 people in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, where Ciudad Anahuac is located, and leaving some 130,000 without water service.

The U.S. National Weather Service said the second tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season had formed over the western Gulf of Mexic and issued a tropical storm watch for the Mexico and Texas coasts on both sides of the Rio Grande.

The depression was about 265 miles (425 kilometers) east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were about 35 mph (55 kph).Forecasters said it could become a tropical storm before hitting land and dumping more rain.

Water behind the binational Amistad Dam on the Rio Grande already is at its highest level since 1974, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission, forcing officials to release water from it at the fastest rate in a quarter century.

The commission said the downstream Falcon dam would probably reach capacity within the next few days, suggesting future releases there will raise water levels along the river's lower reaches.

Much of that downstream area is protected against flooding by levees, but Mexico's National Water Commission said it was worried about low-lying settlements, most built by poor people without official permission.

"One of country's most serious problems are irregular settlements on federal land and in flood-prone areas," it said.

Authorities walked a painful, delicate line — forced to release reservoir waters they know will add to flooding in hopes of avoiding worse disasters.

It was an unusual state of affairs in a semiarid region where Mexican and U.S. officials often squabble over rights to scarce water.

Garza Garcia, the Ciudad Anahuac mayor, said 20 floodgates had been opened by late Tuesday at the Venustiano Carranza Dam, which was releasing 600 cubic meters (21,190 cubic feet) per second into the Salado River, a tributary of the Rio Grande.

"It was preferable having controlled flooding than having the whole town disappear," Garza Garcia said. "The situation is very critical."

Luis Lobo, who drove 16 people from Ciudad Anahuac to Nuevo Laredo, said hundreds of people from Ciudad Anahuac and nearby villages left by foot and were by the side of the road.

"They are out in the open. Men, women, and children with nothing to eat," Lobo said after arriving in Nuevo Laredo.

Garza Garcia said soldiers planned to take food to those stranded.

Sally Spener, public affairs officer for the binational Water Commission that operates the Amistad Dam, said the agency had tried to limit releases "so that we would not exacerbate the flooding."

In Laredo, city spokeswoman Xochitl Mora said officials had telephoned 3,000 homes in low-lying areas urging the residents to leave before the Rio Grande crested. She said a shelter would be opened at the civic center.

Mora said Bridge One was closed as a precaution ahead of the expected crest on Thursday. The water was expected to rise as high as 43 feet late Thursday — high enough to top the bridge.

Officials removed the heavy steel shade canopies to ease the weight on Bridge One before the heaviest water pressure comes with the river crest, she said. About 11,000 pedestrians and 13,000 vehicles use the downtown bridge daily.

A second bridge leading into the northwestern edge of Laredo in an industrial area was also being closed to traffic before the river crests."

For some people, any extra drop of rain is devastating.



Yup, worth a repost.
Im Confused... Novice in Texas!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think those waves are from the ITCZ, not Cape Verde.
Not necessarily. As long as the disturbance moves off the western coast of Africa and becomes a tropical cyclones within 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) of the Cape Verde Islands it can be considered as a Cape Verde type system regardless of being attached to the ITCZ or not.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not necessarily. As long as the disturbance moves off the western coast of Africa and becomes a tropical cyclones within 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) of the Cape Verde Islands it can be considered as a Cape Verde type system regardless of being attached to the ITCZ or not.

Oh. Thanks for the clarification.
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I thought I saw yesterday a couple of waves coming off Africa... ok.. I am a NOVICE.. It was probably historical data from another year! ha!
Little to see, atm.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Im Confused... Novice in Texas!
About the above?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think those waves are from the ITCZ, not Cape Verde.


Thats funny, Cape Verde waves are in the ITCZ.
Quoting Whatever98:
Wow - here are some pics of the damage in Monterrey, Mexico from Alex. I had no idea major freeways and bridges were washed out. Incredible.

Link
I appreciate your posting this. It amazes me that we're not seeing these pictures on the news -- if it didn't happen in the US, it didn't happen?
Quoting ElConando:


Shhh the Aliens hablan espanol!
Translation:the aliens speak spanish.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Very, very little. Learned some from my 3-year-old recently...(the kid gets things from videos and repeats them all the time. Can actually translate some.)
Oh I see. It's a fun language to learn, how you here it is how you spell it.
Thanks for the clarification Miami, I just assumed it was Cape Verde. I'm a newbie so I'm not up on the classification process.
1786. K8eCane
ok beginning to get a little grayer and breezier here
Quoting all4hurricanes:
wasn't Alex's cat 2 advisary over land. Frankly this is the best i've seen td2 and if winds are high enough I think Bonnie could form over land


No, Alex became a Category 2 Hurricane right before landfall.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ITCZ certainly is active today. Hard to believe we won't get a system in that area the next few weeks.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...
Ohhh, that.

Sometimes the higher winds aren't found by the hurricane hunters and/or were not present yet over open water (the only place the HHs can "measure" surface winds) and it takes moving the system to where there are people and anemometers, a.k.a. land, to discover sustained winds of enough magnitude to classify as a TS. Not saying this is the case here, just laying out how such a thing could transpire.
Is anybody watching the swirl of cloud east of the Carolinas? The water is surely warm enough there.

nthompson
1791. FLdewey
Facepalm
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats funny, Cape Verde waves are in the ITCZ.

I already know that.MH09 told me. Again, I said I was 11. I'm not an expert. :|
Quoting K8eCane:
ok beginning to get a little grayer and breezier here
In the blog, or outside?
atmoaggie... thanks for the TD-TS explanation. Now I get it!
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...
If your talking about me I messed up.My computer is crappy.I didn't see the graphs.Anywho the disturbance in the itcz looks interesting.It would have to pull north to develope though.
Los extranjeros hablan espanol!

Una Pregunta, The MJO pulse is coming in next week right?
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Quoting NickThompson:
Is anybody watching the swirl of cloud east of the Carolinas? The water is surely warm enough there.

nthompson


Waters are definitely warm enough for Subtropical, or even Tropical, development over the next 2 days or so. Wind Shear is in the Low/Moderate range, and there is a broad surface low. I give it a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
1800. Conus
Good afternoon, all! ^_^.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


It doesn't
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Could be worse. I work in a basement. The view never changes...
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


ITCZ certainly is active today. Hard to believe we won't get a system in that area the next few weeks.


yeah, or then again who knows...
I'm fairly confident we will see a system or two next week. I guess TD 2 was just one of those depressions that never become tropical storms.

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)

No on tropical storm formation
Quoting ElConando:
Los extranjeros hablan espanol!

Una Pregunta, The MJO pulse is coming in next week right?
Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.
Haven't noticed 456 on the blog lately. He's still around, right?
Quoting Baltimorebird:
No on tropical storm formation
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Translation:the aliens speak spanish.
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?


BaltimoreBirds
1811. IKE
Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph

Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


BaltimoreBirds
I know, LOL, I was just messin' around.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)



Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.
1814. will45
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-090715-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$




BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph

Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft


I expect Tropical Depression #2 to be deactivated late tonight.
1817. msphar
Week 6 and all is quiet on the Eastern Front. Thank goodness.
Quoting AussieStorm:
BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.


It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Awwww....doggonit! The shackels of adult responsibility!
Quoting Baltimorebird:
No on tropical storm formation
Be original.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.


I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.
Quoting Baltimorebird:


Coming from you that is funny JFV


She's not JFV.
NEW BLOG
Ok....Novice here again!! MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation.. Google again! This is the very think I thrive on!! Thanks again to stormw's blog and key to terms!!!
Quoting ElConando:


I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.
Me too. Drak should start doing entries, they sure would be good.

Now time to sit back and watch the birds from Baltimore bicker.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Waters are definitely warm enough for Subtropical, or even Tropical, development over the next 2 days or so. Wind Shear is in the Low/Moderate range, and there is a broad surface low. I give it a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Agreed.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?
with the "s". The other is some sort of affliction this place cannot seem to be rid of. Someone so desperate for companionship and attention that they need to pretend to be someone else in order to borrow their acquaintances. Probably never learned the difference between positive and negative attention as a child...hmmm, or hasn't yet learned this as a child.

This is someone that needs to broaden their hobbies or try dating, if at all possible, as they clearly have time on their hands and have no idea what to do with it. And heshe seems to have no sense of right and wrong. I expect that, without some intervention or growing up a tad, that future, more serious infractions will be committed by this person.

One second thought, maybe dating isn't a good idea. We would all be much better off with no offspring, thanks.
All I can do is a face palm right now.
Quoting StormChaser81:


It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.

yeah i no but I thought i should post it.
New blog everybody!
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.


Don't know the author of the quote, but it sounds right...

Actually, a hurricane will typically begin to decrease in intensity prior to its official landfall (characterized by the center of its eye crossing the coast). As I mentioned previously, an intensifying system like both Andrew and Alex are prime examples of hurricanes that tightened up their eyes due to the frictional effects of land. However, that did not and doesn't translate into a continued intensification of the storm in either its central pressure nor its MSW. Numerous studies have shown that a hurricanes MSW typically decreases by 5-10 % at the land-sea interface.

On the other hand, it is not too uncommon for TC's to begin to reintensify while over land as they approach very warm SST's as they are about to exit a particular coastline. This is what occurred during 1997 with TD Danny as it neared the NC Outer Banks. The same was true for TS Bonnie from 1998-when it intensified back to minimal hurricane intensity while moving over the Outer Banks as well.

The only known example of a TC that I am aware of that actually intensified over land right after it had come ashore was TS Fay in 2008. In that case, the atmospheric environment improved just after it crossed the SW Fl. coastline near Everglades City and was able to take advantage of the marshy wetlands of the Everglades.
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.


WOOOO HOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The system off the east coast could develope slowly into a sub tropical depression over the next few days,shears not that bad,and It's over relativly warm waters.Dry air also doesn't seem to be a problom.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:
Ha, I hear ya. I been a software engineer my entire career and now a college student (again) these past two years, so sitting in one place is the norm. I have to force myself to move.

In the meantime, I have been keeping an eye on the tropics and this blog while here in China (thankful this is not one of the many blocked sites). I worry about my house and property and an active season.

Here they've no idea what a tropical storm or hurricane can do, or even is for the most part. Very strange climate here, too. 106 one day, 78 the next. Thunderstorms with no rain. Heavy rain means 1/2 inch, not a foot like at home. Sand storms more frequent than real storms, and so on.

I get weird looks when I wear my hurricane related t-shirts (Miami Hurricanes jersey, Katrina benefit softball tournament jersey, Wilma benefit tourney jersey). But they can name all the players on the Miami Heat when I wear my 2006 Champions shirt ;)



It's interesting to see what one culture will key to as opposed to another...I'm not surprised that the Chinese are interested in American professional sports though
1836. angiest
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The two big cities I know of that were flooded and damaged by Alex were Monterrey and Matamoros. That was one intense storm.Great Pics BTW.


Unfortunately they seem likely to get at least a little more from TD2 (if they aren't already). Unfortunately, this moisture isn't going some place that can use it: Link


On Wednesday, the lake set a new record low, dropping close to 44 feet. It's the last thing that Lake Meredith officials wanted to do, but starting this week or next, they're going to add new wells out at their Roberts County well field.

Lake Meredith General Manager, Kent Satterwhite can't believe what he's seeing. In only a decade Meredith has dropped close to 20 feet setting a new low. It's something he thought would never happen.

Lake Meredith is in the Texas Panhandle, formed from the Canadian River. ISTR reading that the water pumps don't work below 45 feet and they have now had to start adding special pumps since the water is below that level.
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!
1838. hydrus
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!
And there are some serious eating experts on this blog. If we were not allowed to talk weather anymore, food just might be next..:)
1839. angiest
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!


We are at the new blog. ;)
Quoting Floodman:


It's been posted numerous times so far this season and doesn't seem to have the intended effect...


Alas, the slap needs to be more vigorous... :-)

How you doin, Flood?
1841. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI