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Invest 96L: Not Looking So Good

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he is on vacation.

Invest 96L is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and is not looking as impressive as it did over the holiday weekend. Right now, the cloud tops are warming, which indicate that the thunderstorms are weakening. This is likely due to 96L's being ashore right now. Looking into the future, 96L's doesn't show much promise of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Nearly all of the model guidance has 96L moving in a northwesterly direction along the cool waters churned up in Alex's wake. It looks like 96L will miss the warm SST's at 25N, 87W. It's also expected to move from low shear to higher shear over the the Gulf of Mexico. The ocean offshort of the coastal bend of Texas (Corpus Christi to west of Houston) may allow 96L to intensify if it gets there. There is a small band of warm SST's at the continental shelf, and the wind shear is low (<10 knots).

Looking at the dynamical model output, the story is still murky. Looking at the broad picture, a broad area of 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and southeast Louisiana. NAM favors SE Louisiana, while GEM and the parallel GFS favor the coast east of Corpus Christi. HWRF and NOGAPS have the wind affecting the coast west of Houston, while the operational GFS has the wind coming ashore east of Houston. NOGAPS and HWRF are also the only models that show surface winds that are tropical storm force.

I think that that the upper-level circulation and the surface circulation are not strongly coupled together in teh model simulations. This would explain the the discrepancies between the wind swaths I'm describing and the hurricane forecast aids. Those aids use an automatic process to identify the vortex center in the model data that may favor upper-level features for tracking instead of surface features.

To sum it all up, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.


Fig. 1 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z GFS. Parallel GFS wind swath.


Fig. 2 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z NOGAPS. Canadian Global wind swath.


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 18Z NAM.

Next Update
Tweaks later tonight as necessary, possibly a late night entry describing the Northeast heat wave. Tropical update will be posted Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

G'nite all...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't get me wrong I really enjoy reading what he says, but I like Dr. Masters better. Just my opinion though.
of course you have to understand that Dr. Masters has been writing this blog for numerous years! Experience really helps when blogging a forcast since you have to back up everything with factual links. Heck even the local met is a lot more vague then Dr. Masters and I live in Central Florida.
I do believe 96L will start cooking IF it heads more NNW into warmer waters... if it heads more WNW it may not do anything due to the cooler waters
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
of course you have to understand that Dr. Masters has been writing this blog for numerous years! Experience really helps when blogging a forcast since you have to back up everything with factual links. Heck even the local met is a lot more vague then Dr. Masters and I live in Central Florida.


And never forget that you also have the absolute right to your own opinion! That is why I love this country.
506. JLPR2




Not bad
Quoting JLPR2:




Not bad
Not bad.... heck that is awesome for July!! Beginning of July at that!
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
I do believe 96L will start cooking IF it heads more NNW into warmer waters... if it heads more WNW it may not do anything due to the cooler waters
Is it just me or does the circulation look like its moving slowly N?
509. JLPR2
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Not bad.... heck that is awesome for July!! Beginning of July at that!


yeah, makes you wonder what Africa could spit in August and September
*gulps*
XD
One thing to remember about TCHP is that the faster a system is moving, the more surface temperatures matter and the less the depth of the warm water matters. When a tropical cyclone is moving faster than 15 mph the center and eyewall will move over new water every few hours, before upwelling ruins the warm surface water layer.

Alex strengthened quickly his last day over the western gulf of Mexico despite unimpressive TCHP in part because he was moving quickly enough to 'outrun' his upwelling.


High TCHP is always 'better' for a strong hurricane. But it makes more difference the slower a hurricane is moving. A strong hurricane could do a near stall over the northwest Caribbean and stay strong for quite some time. A hurricane could maintain major status now over almost all the Gulf of Mexico by moving fast enough---over 15 mph in my opinion, just eyeballing things.
Quoting scott39:
Is it just me or does the circulation look like its moving slowly N?
It appears so, but I don't really trust anything other than vis to determine motion..and only if it is looped for at least 3 hours..but, yeah, I see what you see..
its u its going wnw
new surface maps are out 00Z



Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
One thing to remember about TCHP is that the faster a system is moving, the more surface temperatures matter and the less the depth of the warm water matters. When a tropical cyclone is moving faster than 15 mph the center and eyewall will move over new water every few hours, before upwelling ruins the warm surface water layer.

Alex strengthened quickly his last day over the western gulf of Mexico despite unimpressive TCHP in part because he was moving quickly enough to 'outrun' his upwelling.


High TCHP is always 'better' for a strong hurricane. But it makes more difference the slower a hurricane is moving. A strong hurricane could do a near stall over the northwest Caribbean and stay strong for quite some time. A hurricane could maintain major status now over almost all the Gulf of Mexico by moving fast enough---over 15 mph in my opinion, just eyeballing things.
Does it look to be moving more N than W?
Quoting kmanislander:
I hate it when these Invests just hang around. They don't become anything and they don't go away. All they do is cause strife on the blog.

Maybe tomorrow 96L will go quietly in the night, or the day as the case may be.

not with a bang, but a whimper....
My final post for tonight.

Keep an eye on the Central Atl.

Vorticity has been persistent for over 24 hours, and fairly well defined though small.

Convection has not been great but it is still early and that can change at any time.

Finally, a big high pressure just showed up to the East of the feature and may overtake it and provide support aloft.

All of this depicted in the images below, posted in order of the comments. We are transitioning from the Caribbean to the CV season now.

Have a great evening all.







If this is going to develop quickly in GOM we should start seeing the signs in next few hours. It should be at its worst condition now.
With respect to TCHP as I pass, and should not have peeked, how is TCHP impacted by oil sheen? We have no clue at this point. Nor do we know how the impact of oil has changed what we see from Satellites.... Just sayin, what exactly are we seeing from the instruments that exist and were not calibrated for the environment we view from them? I have no clue!! out>>>>>>
Quoting centex:
If this is going to develop quickly in GOM we should start seeing the signs in next few hours. It should be at its worst condition now.


Not quickly, but slowly. The waters are cool in the GOM thanks to Alex. That surely won't help 96L.
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, makes you wonder what Africa could spit in August and September
*gulps*
XD


wait... am i missing something or another stolen username... isnt there just a JLPR?
521. JLPR2
So red is stuff high in the Atmosphere like ULLs so the dark areas are Anticlones right?
I see one area with 96L and an even better one close to the area at 10N 40W

Quoting scott39:
Is it just me or does the circulation look like its moving slowly N?

where is the circulation? looks like it kinda disapeared after exiting the Yucatan into the gulf. its definitely not in the boc. what do you think?:)
523. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


wait... am i missing something or another stolen username... isnt there just a JLPR?


yeah, that's me, check my blog, I explained in the first line XD
It looks like 96L has taken a jog to the N. IMO
Quoting centex:
If this is going to develop quickly in GOM we should start seeing the signs in next few hours. It should be at its worst condition now.
Not because of cool water, Alex went south. It will get part of that.
Quoting kmanislander:
DR. fill in guy !
no respect i tell ya no respect
Quoting sarahjola:

where is the circulation? looks like it kinda disapeared after exiting the Yucatan into the gulf. its definitely not in the boc. what do you think?:)
If you real closely about 22N and 89W, it looks like its coming off the Yucatan and going more N.
528. ryang
Can anyone give me the link to the GFS parallel site? I keep forgetting to bookmark it...
Let’s see what happens next few hours. Shear is low, SST's ok and dry air not immediate problem. I think we will start to see action in few hours.
530. JLPR2
Quoting ryang:
Can anyone give me the link to the GFS parallel site? I keep forgetting to bookmark it...


Link
Quoting kmanislander:
My final post for tonight.

Keep an eye on the Central Atl.

Vorticity has been persistent for over 24 hours, and fairly well defined though small.

Convection has not been great but it is still early and that can change at any time.

Finally, a big high pressure just showed up to the East of the feature and may overtake it and provide support aloft.

All of this depicted in the images below, posted in order of the comments. We are transitioning from the Caribbean to the CV season now.

Have a great evening all.







that time is fast approaching now

good night island friend
532. ryang
Quoting JLPR2:


Link


Thanks!
533. beell
Quoting centex:
I heard mention of wind shear or dry air problem. I challenge someone to post official graghic showing problem tomorrow around 21/92. I've not been able to find it. Are we serious about our forecast?


May not convince you centex, but I can offer up the following charts and notes. May be somewhat better tomorrow but shear and dry air are slowing development.

20 knots on the NE side.



Note the outflow on the NW side-kinda hitting a wall. A bit more dry air to come following the TX coast, moving S. An opinion, but I believe some of that dry air is under the "visible" water vapor. And 96L is moving to the NW/WNW towards the dry air.

Link

And you should see my face-it is really serious looking. (j/k). I try not to get too serious about anything here. Better 'n TV!
that n jog is very tempoary should going back to the wnw cause of the building high to the north
INV/96/L
MARK
22.1N/89.7W
Quoting beell:


May not convince you centex, but I can offer up the following charts and notes. May be somewhat better tomorrow but shear and dry air are slowing development.

20 knots on the NE side.



Note the outflow on the NW side-kinda hitting a wall. A bit more dry air to come following the TX coast, moving S. An opinion, but I believe some of that dry air is under the "visible" water vapor. And 96L is moving to the NW/WNW towards the dry air.

Link

And you should see my face-it is really serious looking. (j/k). I try not to get too serious about anything here. Better 'n TV!


Sure is lol.

Water vapor shows the ULL lifting northwest into Texas...should drag at least some of the dry air out of the gulf and allow 96L's outflow to expand northwest a bit more. I would describe conditions as marginally favorable right now, not perfect.
Quoting Patrap:
I saw the TCHP degradation from ALEX and it goes well with the intensity Graph forecast as to Limiting the Intensity to a degree.

But the Available Joules is the Beta ..and thats what I follow




I think your graphic says it all ...

No wonder 96L is only firing on one cylinder, and that just happens to be over by Cancun and Cozumel. This thing is starved right now, for HEAT ...

Good evening, all.
Quoting beell:


May not convince you centex, but I can offer up the following charts and notes. May be somewhat better tomorrow but shear and dry air are slowing development.

20 knots on the NE side.



Note the outflow on the NW side-kinda hitting a wall. A bit more dry air to come following the TX coast, moving S. An opinion, but I believe some of that dry air is under the "visible" water vapor. And 96L is moving to the NW/WNW towards the dry air.

Link

And you should see my face-it is really serious looking. (j/k). I try not to get too serious about anything here. Better 'n TV!
ok but it's currenty 5-10 coming off coast. Not clear sailing with some 20 around.
PtownBryan, If you are still on, I just sent you an email thru Wunder ground concerning your question about your generator that we were discussing last night. I apoligize that i didn't get it last night, but I had to call it a night. I hope it helps, and Be Safe!!!
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I think your graphic says it all ...

No wonder 96L is only firing on one cylinder, and that just happens to be over by Cancun and Cozumel. This thing is starved right now, for HEAT ...



Well most of 96L's lack of convection right now is due to the system being over land, but it may be a bit deprived of heat as it moves over Alex's cold wake. SSTs are only around 27C there.
now i don't know too much about this stuff so i will ask, don't it look as though the western part of 96l is getting eaten up or pushed back some by the dry air and what ever that is moving toward it out of the west? also don't it look as if the coc or circulation has been stretched out or maybe is relocating to the north? thanks for any clarification anyone can give:)
My eyes are floating east at those two blobs off of the coast. I don't like the looks of that system diving SW!
This site is very informative! I am mostly a lurker! I am on here daily seeking info from alot of people who know what is really going on in the tropics. Thanks!
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Hi, Levi! A quick question, if I may........



hmmmmmmmmmmmm
do i smell a smell
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Hi, Levi! A quick question, if I may........


You may.
Quoting Levi32:


Well most of 96L's lack of convection right now is due to the system being over land, but it may be a bit deprived of heat as it moves over Alex's cold wake. SSTs are only around 27C there.
How much farther N is 96L than Alex at this longitude?
Quoting Tazmanian:



hmmmmmmmmmmmm


Excuse me, come again?????
looking at visible it is pretty clear that the circulation took a nice jog to the north.:)
554. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Sure is lol.

Water vapor shows the ULL lifting northwest into Texas...should drag at least some of the dry air out of the gulf and allow 96L's outflow to expand northwest a bit more. I would describe conditions as marginally favorable right now, not perfect.


True on the "short-term" effects of the ULL. I think it might be a little careless to not consider TD status at least-but as you said earlier-the clock is ticking towards "landfall"
Quoting btwntx08:
that n jog is very tempoary should going back to the wnw cause of the building high to the north
Thank you, kindly! Alright, I've recently noticed that some of our hurricane forecasting global models, have begun to show a potential CV storm forming just west of Africa, during the third week of month. What are your thoughts on this? I'm referring to the GFS and the ECMWF models.
Quoting btwntx08:
I dont put much weight in models when an AOI is an Invest.
559. beell
Quoting centex:
ok but it's currenty 5-10 coming off coast. Not clear sailing with some 20 around.


Works for me. Some dry air/shear negatives for development. But I won't be taking my eyes off of it! Pretty sure you won't be either.
Quoting scott39:
How much farther N is 96L than Alex at this longitude?


Not by much now. It will soon be closely in line with Alex's track across the western gulf, though possibly a tad farther north at the end as it approaches the coast.



549
HELLO
Quoting Levi32:


Not by much now. It will soon be closely in line with Alex's track across the western gulf, though possibly a tad farther north at the end as it approaches the coast.



So you dont see it tracking farther N before the high builds back in and tapping into those warmer waters?
As for the best preforming model for 96L... they all have failed miserably unable to get less than 100miles of error either day. This is really bad, even for an invest. Hope all the recon data helps..
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Thank you, kindly! Alright, I've recently noticed that some of our hurricane forecasting global models, have begun to show a potential CV storm forming just west of Africa, during the third week of month. What are your thoughts on this? I'm referring to the GFS and the ECMWF models.


I was not surprised to see that pop up on the GFS and ECMWF today. The pattern forecasted by both models during the 2nd half of the month is looking to be very favorable for our first CV development of the season. Here's a post from earlier where I described the favorable pattern:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms.

The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.

Quoting sarahjola:
now i don't know too much about this stuff so i will ask, don't it look as though the western part of 96l is getting eaten up or pushed back some by the dry air and what ever that is moving toward it out of the west? also don't it look as if the coc or circulation has been stretched out or maybe is relocating to the north? thanks for any clarification anyone can give:)
Quoting Levi32:


I was not surprised to see that pop up on the GFS and ECMWF today. The pattern forecasted by both models during the 2nd half of the month is looking to be very favorable for our first CV development of the season. Here's a post from earlier where I described the favorable pattern:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms.

The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.

not good at all and too soon!
I guess it looks like it may take a similar track as Alex? I just can't believe that...that is crazy. I'm not wishing a storm on TX but Mexico again and close to the same spot....hmmmm
Quoting scott39:
So you dont see it tracking farther N before the high builds back in and tapping into those warmer waters?


Well if it makes a Texas landfall then it might encounter some warmer waters near the coast, but a landfall south of the border would keep it over Alex's cool wake for pretty much most of its journey across the gulf. We should keep in mind that SSTs are more than warm enough to support development, but the fact that they are cooler, down to 27C in a lot of areas, means that 96L will not have as much support to help it develop than it would if it were tracking over another part of the gulf.
Looks like 96l is starting to move off of the northern coast of the Yucatan into the gulf... unless my eyes are deceiving me..

We should know much more about every aspect of this "thing" in 24 hrs...
Quoting Levi32:


Well if it makes a Texas landfall then it might encounter some warmer waters near the coast, but a landfall south of the border would keep it over Alex's cool wake for pretty much most of its journey across the gulf. We should keep in mind that SSTs are more than warm enough to support development, but the fact that they are cooler, down to 27C in a lot of areas, means that 96L will not have as much support to help it develop than it would if it were tracking over another part of the gulf.
thanks
Quoting Skyepony:
As for the best preforming model for 96L... they all have failed miserably unable to get less than 100miles of error either day. This is really bad, even for an invest. Hope all the recon data helps..


Well, that doesn't seem surprising given that the NHC had the models initializing the old surface low for quite some time before switching to the mid-level low. That was sure to cause some hefty errors.
Quoting Levi32:


I was not surprised to see that pop up on the GFS and ECMWF today. The pattern forecasted by both models during the 2nd half of the month is looking to be very favorable for our first CV development of the season. Here's a post from earlier where I described the favorable pattern:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms.

The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.


With this setup will the storms go into the Gulf or up the Eastern seaboard?
what are the max winds associated with 96l? thanks in advance:)
Quoting Skyepony:
As for the best preforming model for 96L... they all have failed miserably unable to get less than 100miles of error either day. This is really bad, even for an invest. Hope all the recon data helps..


It is common for the models to get a better handle on the more pronounced storms.. they often more have trouble with the "lil guys"..

I think they (the models) will have a much better handle of this thing in 24 hrs...
sterring agrees as well
Quoting btwntx08:
sterring agrees as well


You know that change somewhat tomorrow...and the next day ... and the next day :)
Levi, would you please look at the circulation of 96L right now and look at the last 2 frames and tell me what direction 96L is going?
Quoting MississippiBoy:

With this setup will the storms go into the Gulf or up the Eastern seaboard?


Under such a pattern, long-track storms going through the Caribbean may wind up in the gulf, but it is questionable whether storms passing north of the Caribbean would continue that far west. Regardless, it is a pattern that favors less recurving and more storms tracking WNW until they hit North America and the Caribbean.
The more I look at 96L the less confident I feel about any guesses I make about it.

With the heat wave building to the outer islands of the northeast today (Provincetown 93, Nantucket 91, Block Island 95) I wonder how much water temps off the northeast coast are jumping.
Quoting scott39:
Levi, would you please look at the circulation of 96L right now and look at the last 2 frames and tell me what direction 96L is going?


I see generally WNW motion continuing. If you're worried about a turn towards the northwest, there may be a slightly more northerly component to its track as it enters the gulf, but the tendency thereafter will be a curve back westward, and this isn't likely to surprise anybody farther north than where the models have it tracking right now. The track forecast is pretty straight-forward with this system.
Quoting Levi32:


Under such a pattern, long-track storms going through the Caribbean may wind up in the gulf, but it is questionable whether storms passing north of the Caribbean would continue that far west. Regardless, it is a pattern that favors less recurving and more storms tracking WNW until they hit North America and the Caribbean.

In other words Levi it could be a long season.
i knew it i knew it hes back again
Quoting HispanicWeather:


Thanks, Levi! But ouch, let's hope taht doesn't come to pass. But, if a storm did form, late month, would be most likely a fish storm, or would it threaten someone?


More likely to threaten land than recurve out to sea.
Quoting btwntx08:
i knew it i knew it hes back again


Mhm lol.
I'm sure this has been discussed but didn't see it > what is that circular motion located at what I think is 35N, 65W..?
Quoting Levi32:


I see generally WNW motion continuing. If you're worried about a turn towards the northwest, there may be a slightly more northerly component to its track as it enters the gulf, but the tendency thereafter will be a curve back westward, and this isn't likely to surprise anybody farther north than where the models have it tracking right now. The track forecast is pretty straight-forward with this system.
thanks, It looks like we will have plenty to track in the GOM this season and alot more powerful than 96L. Some of them i fear will be monsters
Quoting Levi32:


Mhm lol.

yea i wont say nothing else lol
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
I'm sure this has been discussed but didn't see it > what is that circular motion located at what I think is 35N, 65W..?


An upper-level low. You can see the spin in the upper winds here:

Quoting Levi32:


Well, that doesn't seem surprising given that the NHC had the models initializing the old surface low for quite some time before switching to the mid-level low. That was sure to cause some hefty errors.


Well yes, garbage in, garbage out..atleast it is confirmed.

Some more potentail graphics..


Yeah... one could get banned
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update!

July 6, 2010 - 8:55 PM EDT - 96L Organizing


Good night everyone.
your decoupled from the reality of the situation like blob 96L
Quoting Levi32:


I see generally WNW motion continuing. If you're worried about a turn towards the northwest, there may be a slightly more northerly component to its track as it enters the gulf, but the tendency thereafter will be a curve back westward, and this isn't likely to surprise anybody farther north than where the models have it tracking right now. The track forecast is pretty straight-forward with this system.
Sory models track/intensity on system before it develops is highly suspect. Your misleading people. I can't let these remarks be posted without clarification. NHC would not do this, this poster thinks better than NHC. Back off.
Quoting centex:
Sory models track/intensity on system before it develops is highly suspect. Your misleading people. I can't let these remarks be posted without clarification. NHC would not do this, this poster thinks better than NHC. Back off.


For the love of Pete...
Quoting CoffinWood:


For the love of Pete...


LOL... whose Pete?
Thanks @Levi32 > is there discussion something may be forming there?
Quoting CoffinWood:


For the love of Pete...


Agreed.
Quoting centex:
Sory models track/intensity on system before it develops is highly suspect. Your misleading people. I can't let these remarks be posted without clarification. NHC would not do this, this poster thinks better than NHC. Back off.


How about you back off? Levi bases his posts off of what he sees happening, not just the models. Your just trying to pick a fight.
Quoting centex:
Sory models track/intensity on system before it develops is highly suspect. Your misleading people. I can't let these remarks be posted without clarification. NHC would not do this, this poster thinks better than NHC. Back off.


Lol....I'm the last person to advocate for the accuracy of our models...they more often than not fail to do a good job. However, the pattern is not as complicated with 96L as it was with Alex, and thus there is less margin for error. I said that it's not likely to deviate much from the current model tracks because they are very much in line with what the pattern would argue for 96L's track to be. In this forecaster's opinion, the track is not very hard to forecast for 96L. The NHC commonly will express varying levels of confidence in their forecast and the model consensus. I am simply doing the same.
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Oh lord, Levi! Big trouble a-coming, eh? Gulp, sigh, lol.


... is that you JFV? Is this me?

Sorry had to say it.
Quoting sarahjola:
now i don't know too much about this stuff so i will ask, don't it look as though the western part of 96l is getting eaten up or pushed back some by the dry air and what ever that is moving toward it out of the west? also don't it look as if the coc or circulation has been stretched out or maybe is relocating to the north? thanks for any clarification anyone can give:)
Quoting

I noticed that too but.....

Levi32:



I see generally WNW motion continuing. If you're worried about a turn towards the northwest, there may be a slightly more northerly component to its track as it enters the gulf, but the tendency thereafter will be a curve back westward, and this isn't likely to surprise anybody farther north than where the models have it tracking right now. The track forecast is pretty straight-forward with this system.
Quoting btwntx08:

yea i wont say nothing else lol

another great elliot moment:
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Thanks @Levi32 > is there discussion something may be forming there?


That upper low is splitting off from the trough and will be interacting with an old front and a tropical wave east of the Bahamas, which may result in the stirring up of some mischief, but it is not an immediate concern. It will be a slow process that will have to be watched over the next 2-3 days.
Turn out the lights the party is over. 96L is hopelessly decoupled mid to low level. If it makes low grade storm will be suprising now. RIP 96L...(ok here she comes..i have formally ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Helpful > thanks @Levi32.
Did we ever get a defined coc with 96L?
Quoting Levi32:


Lol....I'm the last person to advocate for the accuracy of our models...they more often than not fail to do a good job. However, the pattern is not as complicated with 96L as it was with Alex, and thus there is less margin for error. I said that it's not likely to deviate much from the current model tracks because they are very much in line with what the pattern would argue for 96L's track to be. In this forecaster's opinion, the track is not very hard to forecast for 96L. The NHC commonly will express varying levels of confidence in their forecast and the model consensus. I am simply doing the same.
I might believe you but you tried to get everybody chasing a northern swirl just a few hours ago.
AOI
LOCATION: 08.0N, 20.0W
MOVEMENT: W

IAMGE A FEW HOURS OLD



LINK TO SAT (SAT IN REAL TIME)
Link
Quoting centex:
I might believe you but you tried to get everybody chasing a northern swirl just a few hours ago.


Did I? Quote me then.
Ok Hhunter... just noticed your post regarding decoupled 96L... thanks for clarification.
616. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AOI
LOCATION: 08.0N, 20.0W
MOVEMENT: W

IAMGE A FEW HOURS OLD



LINK TO SAT (SAT IN REAL TIME)
Link


Loosing steam again XD
Quoting Hhunter:
Turn out the lights the party is over. 96L is hopelessly decoupled mid to low level. If it makes low grade storm will be suprising now. RIP 96L...(ok here she comes..i have formally ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


LOL! Aw c'mon, since I can't forcast, I gotta have SOMETHING to do!!!

Dies irae aaawhhhhoooooooooooooooo!!!
Interesting wave off Africa today. Holding convection well, if it sustains we might get a mention from the NHC by 8 pm today. Also Levi if your still out there I enjoy your videos, and I was wondering if you might make a note on this wave in your next video.



Quoting HispanicWeather:
Levi, when will that huge low, currently hoverring to the east of the cost, move away?


In 3-4 days it should be carried out by a passing longwave trough to the north.
The model paths looking at the wunderground tropical site are pretty straightforward. But it's whether 96L ever really develops is what has me scratching my head.

Oh. Started posting 5 years ago today.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The model paths looking at the wunderground tropical site are pretty straightforward. But it's whether 96L ever really develops is what has me scratching my head.

Oh. Started posting 5 years ago today.


Happy Anniversary!

Agree....development is the biggest question mark right now. Track is not a head-scratcher right now.
623. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The model paths looking at the wunderground tropical site are pretty straightforward. But it's whether 96L ever really develops is what has me scratching my head.

Oh. Started posting 5 years ago today.


Happy Wu birthday!
Had one myself 4 days ago :)
Quoting Levi32:


Did I? Quote me then.
Be honest you were main blogger keeping the N swirl alive. Even after NHC droped it day before. Is that following them? Do you need me to repost your comments? It's ok to move on even NHC never admits wrong.
Quoting HispanicWeather:


No it isn't. You've been both, reported and flagged for accusing me of being another blogger.


Unfortunately, you just can't hide your true self. It seems pathological, but regardless, I wish you nothing but success and peace in whatever it is you are yearning for.
Created a animated image situated near the African coast from GHCC imagery. Updated the coordinates shortly after posting so that the image included more to see. Won't be updating coordinates again on this satellite.



Updates every 25 minutes.
Don't worry guys...I received an email from Dr. Masters today. Action is being taken...IP bans are possible in this day and age. :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The model paths looking at the wunderground tropical site are pretty straightforward. But it's whether 96L ever really develops is what has me scratching my head.

Oh. Started posting 5 years ago today.


If it has as much trouble with COC as it has today im not sure about it developing but just haffa see what it looks like in 24 hrs
Quoting centex:
Be honest you were main blogger keeping the N swirl alive. Even after NHC droped it day before. Is that following them? Do you need me to repost your comments? It's ok to move on even NHC never admits wrong.


I just asked you to repost my comments regarding what you're saying and here you are avoiding posting them.....they don't exist. I dare you to quote me then...honestly.

In my blog this morning I talked about the low-level circulation in the central gulf and how it was still anchoring the system at the time, which was true. I also said that the northern center had no chance for development and that the only chance 96L had was to work the southern, mid-level center down to the surface over the SW gulf. Please read more carefully before wildly accusing me.
Quoting centex:
Be honest you were main blogger keeping the N swirl alive. Even after NHC droped it day before. Is that following them? Do you need me to repost your comments? It's ok to move on even NHC never admits wrong.


NHC has admitted wrong before.. look at Epsilon in 2005!
btw 96L didnt decoupled he was just fooling
The info for models error has updated.. Dramatic improvement with models.. CMC leads over all 50nm, gfs ensamble 56, OFCL 66, NAM 70, LBAR 72, GFDL 77, MM5s, HWRF in the 80s.
Quoting Dirtleg:
Don't worry guys...I received an email from Dr. Masters today. Action is being taken...IP bans are possible in this day and age. :)


they dont do ip bans here
hey every one still in agreement that 96L will go south tex/mex????
will45>no, normally they don't. But when people go to extreme lengths to circumvent bans, then they can take extreme action.
Wait. So some bloggers are wrong about 96L. Some will be of course. Even some very knowledgeable ones.

So what?

I'm wrong all the time. I was mostly right with Alex, and that made me happy. But when I'm way wrong--so what?

I think guessing about tropical systems, where they will go, and how strong they will be is fun. Who cares if some blogger X made a wrong guess about 96L yesterday.

I mean really, so what?

Show me one blogger here who has made predictions in wunderground for any length of time who has not been way, way wrong.
Quoting Dirtleg:
Don't worry guys...I received an email from Dr. Masters today. Action is being taken...IP bans are possible in this day and age. :)


I call BS ....
Quoting Skyepony:
The info for models error has updated.. Dramatic improvement with models.. CMC leads over all 50nm, gfs ensamble 56, OFCL 66, NAM 70, LBAR 72, GFDL 77, MM5s, HWRF in the 80s.


That makes sense now that the models have been locked onto the new position (mid-level center) for a few runs now. The errors should remain fairly small from here on out.
643. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wait. So some bloggers are wrong about 96L. Some will be of course. Even some very knowledgeable ones.

So what?

I'm wrong all the time. I was mostly right with Alex, and that made me happy. But when I'm way wrong--so what?

I think guessing about tropical systems, where they will go, and how strong they will be is fun. Who cares if some blogger X made a wrong guess about 96L yesterday.

I mean really, so what?

Show me one blogger here who has made predictions in wunderground for any length of time who has not been way, way wrong.


I even lost count of my posts that ended up been nonsense LOL!
Quoting will45:


they dont do ip bans here



they dont then what dos this say

Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.
Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.
IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.
Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again.
Quoting Skyepony:
The info for models error has updated.. Dramatic improvement with models.. CMC leads over all 50nm, gfs ensamble 56, OFCL 66, NAM 70, LBAR 72, GFDL 77, MM5s, HWRF in the 80s.


Where do u get that info?
96L doesn't appear decoupled anymore to me.

500 mb vorticity


700 mb vorticity


850 mb vorticy


The former low of 96L ejected off to the north and dissipated, the MLC is indeed taking over and appears to might even be on the surface by now. You have to remember, this is a long process with this WPAC style invest, they take a long time to develop and once they do as we saw with Alex they can take off if conditions are there for it. I personally believe 96L might become Bonnie a few hours before landfall in Texas. Right now convection is seriously lacking, it needs to build tonight and tomorrow.
Quoting will45:


they dont do ip bans here


They do, but they most likely ban one IP. When you have a dynamic IP that changes almost daily, it's really hard to ban them without banning more than just that person.
Levi, and JLPR2, thanks!

JLPR2 how long have you been posting and blogging in wunderground?
Quoting Dirtleg:
Don't worry guys...I received an email from Dr. Masters today. Action is being taken...IP bans are possible in this day and age. :)


Why dont you share said email with all here to see so we can all sleep easy tonight...
650. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi, and JLPR2, thanks!

JLPR2 how long have you been posting and blogging in wunderground?


3 years, much more recent than you XD
I dont know where you got that Taz but there is nothing in the rules that even mentions an ip ban
Quoting Cantu5977:


Where do u get that info?


Link
Oh congrats StSimons, I've only been blogging for not even 2, started blogging in Oct. 2008.
Quoting Dirtleg:
will45>no, normally they don't. But when people go to extreme lengths to circumvent bans, then they can take extreme action.



and JFV is doing this that by comeing back here under new names
So that we are perfectly clear, this is from my blog entry this morning:

"The biggest story right now is Invest 96L. This system is another product of the overall pattern where building heat and lowering pressures are getting focused in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and the resulting disturbance is not unlike monsoonal depression development in the Indian Ocean or Western Pacific. It's the same thing we talked about with Hurricane Alex.

The surface center with the burst of strong gales on its eastern side has taken off to the north and is now in the central Gulf of Mexico heading up towards southwest Louisiana. The mid-upper center is staying behind near the eastern Yucatan where the greatest concentration of heat is, and this is not unusual to see a decoupled system in this kind of pattern. Typhoons do it all the time, but they always have a big wide open ocean with days upon days to get it together and develop. Alex had the time and nearly became a major hurricane, but 96L does not have enough time to pull itself together. It is obvious that the surface center does not want to get married to the mid-upper feature, and their divorce kills a lot of the hope for this system to develop.

96L still has a chance though, because with the low-level flow taking the surface feature rapidly northwestward, the mid-level center is left behind farther south and is more sluggish with its movement. It is possible this could work its way down to the surface and form a new surface low out in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple days once the old low is out of the way and has moved into western Louisiana. An upper low currently over the western gulf is shearing the current surface low in the central gulf, but this upper low will be backing away over the next couple days and ventilating the western gulf as 96L's mid-level piece comes across, and the environment should be at least marginally favorable for development should the mid-level center try to work down to the surface. If it does, the track will be farther south towards northern Mexico or south Texas. Right now I give it a low chance of development. Regardless, the surface feature moving inland near SW LA or NE Texas in 36 hours will be bringing heavy tropical rains and tropical storm-force winds to portions of the coast, and people should be aware that active tropical weather is headed their way this week regardless of development."
My 5-year blogging anniversary comes this November. It's been amazing.
Quoting Levi32:


That makes sense now that the models have been locked onto the new position (mid-level center) for a few runs now. The errors should remain fairly small from here on out.


No surprise OFCL hasn't done to bad compared to the models overall with this the last few days.. we haven't been calling it things like Alex2 for no reason.
I also have an e_mail from Dr Masters in which he says that admin support would have to handle it
I may have already passed my 5 year.. I lurked for only a few weeks before I first posted.
i no this is nuts if i was the Admin i would have had JFV block from the site by now
I'm trying to figure out why JFV is even an issue! Who cares if he comes back under another name. I didn't see anything in the above post by this HispanicWeather guy that warranted any attacks against him. Maybe, just maybe this JFV guy wouldn't act the way he does if people wouldn't make an issue out of it.

I read a lot worse things said on here by some of the regulars than I have from this JFV and nothing ever happens to them.

I think some people on here are obsessed with him.
You guys recognize him quick enough... if you put him on ignore right away... it would take him a long time to notice no one cares.. end of problem.

As long as you make such a big deal out of nothing... he wins.
hey st. simons not sure why u blocked me from blog? i just value your opinion and wanted to know what your thoughts were on 96L landfall...sorry if i offended you in any way!
Congrats Levi!

Skyepony I didn't see the blogs until April 05, although had been using wunderground since 1995/96. I jumped in when hurricane Dennis started looking interesting.
Quoting Orcasystems:
You guys recognize him quick enough... if you put him on ignore right away... it would take him a long time to notice no one cares.. end of problem.

As long as you make such a big deal out of nothing... he wins.

THANK you!!!
anticyclone right on top of it seems
96L or whatever it turns into seems to be heading to a northeast Mexico/South Texas landfall. All models show this, more or less. Intensification over the next 2 days is questionable.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no this is nuts if i was the Admin i would have had JFV block from the site by now


Taz, your knowledge of Internet network admin is zero. You CANNOT IP ban an individual. You can IP BAN an entire domain which means anyone else on that network.

It can't be done, so just let it go.
Quoting Skyepony:
I may have already passed my 5 year.. I lurked for only a few weeks before I first posted.


I lurked for all of 2005 because my computer wouldn't let me sign up at the time for a reason that I later figured out (I was not computer-savvy at all then). I was pretty sad to be reduced to lurking during the hurricane season to top all seasons, but I was finally able to join in November.
Quoting Orcasystems:
You guys recognize him quick enough... if you put him on ignore right away... it would take him a long time to notice no one cares.. end of problem.

As long as you make such a big deal out of nothing... he wins.


He goes on my ignore everytime he comes back but when people quote him ignore isnt worth a dime.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Taz, your knowledge of Internet network admin is zero. You CANNOT IP ban an individual. You can IP BAN an entire domain which means anyone else on that network.

It can't be done, so just let it go.



ture
also the mid gulf sfc finally went poof too as well also it is stacked from 850mb to 500 mb
676. JLPR2
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Hey Levi, does teh latest GFS run, continues it's persistency in reference to the CV entity?


Regular GFS still has it


Para GFS Lost it
What month and year did Hurricane Dean strike? I do remember following that storm on here. I thought it was early in the 2005 season.
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Hey Levi, does teh latest GFS run, continues it's persistency in reference to the CV entity?


Mhm. It does. Not quite as aggressive as 18z, especially on the parallel.

"Original GFS"



GFS Parallel:



Quoting will45:


He goes on my ignore everytime he comes back but when people quote him ignore isnt worth a dime.



mail for you
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Agreed, Orca, he's quite the bother.




he was talking about you not me
Quoting Levi32:


I lurked for all of 2005 because my computer wouldn't let me sign up at the time for a reason that I later figured out (I was not computer-savvy at all then). I was pretty sad to be reduced to lurking during the hurricane season to top all seasons, but I was finally able to join in November.

I started lurking after Charley and his buddies. Have rescue animals and disabled hubby to move in case of serious storm, and wanted a bit more heads up than i could get from local news. Stayed to learn, read the posts since then, and signed up just this year. I love the info, and like I said before, even when y'all are spitting at each other like teenagers, it's still educational.
Well I didn't like it when JFV tried imitating plywoodstatenative--who has been blogging going back to at least 2006. And then JFV claimed that he was the original blogger and plywoodstatenative was the imposter. His shenanigans I usually ignore, but imitating other bloggers is unacceptable.

I expect that he will come back as hmmm

Tampaspyn
Levy32
Skypony
Ocrasystems
StSimonsIslandGAgay
Tazmaynian
Drakeon
Waether456
Quoting Tazmanian:




he was talking about you not me


Tazzzzz drop it... or do I have the wrong person on ignore?
Quoting Tazmanian:




he was talking about you not me
Duh! He owns you!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Tazzzzz drop it... or do I have the wrong person on ignore?



ok i drop it
Quoting Tazmanian:



mail for you


got it Taz i replied
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I didn't like it when JFV tried imitating plywoodstatenative--who has been blogging going back to at least 2006. And then JFV claimed that he was the original blogger and plywoodstatenative was the imposter. His shenanigans I usually ignore, but imitating other bloggers is unacceptable.

I expect that he will come back as hmmm

Tampaspyn
Levy32
Skypony
Ocrasystems
StSimonsIslandGAgay
Tazmaynian
Drakeon
Waether456


Lol....good ones. I agree, impersonation is a step too far.
I've been lurking since 2005, but didn't sign up until last year. Katrina turned my life upside down so I wouldn't have been able to post even if I had been a member!
GFS parallel is the new version of the GFS that will soon take over completely. It has a finer spatial grid resolution of 27km, an improvement over the 35km original GFS. This should make it more accurate overall.
692. JLPR2
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Interesting, but, JP and Levi, whata re teh differences between both of those versions of the GFS model? That ahs me a tid bit confused, is there mcuh of a difference there?


Para is the new upgraded version and well the GFS is good ol GFS LOL!
Para proved to be more accurate with Alex than the regular GFS so yep...

And Levi gave the details* XD
Quoting Levi32:


Lol....good ones. I agree, impersonation is a step too far.
Hey, "imitation is the greatest form flattery"!
lol the plywoodstatenative the one we no and love was here all the long but the ThePlywoodstate was the imposter this a follow up for commet 683
Levi~ That's sad about not being able to post in '05..

I wunder if anyone ever Won the free year membership offer from Masters first blog, capturing a complete round rainbow.

I started coming here in 97 or 98. This place was pretty popular with Kennedy Space Center employees pretty early on. Was here daily once the '04 frenzy got underway. The blogs brought on such a new level of entertainment the next year~ by Oct '05 I shelled out $5 for membership.
696. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I didn't like it when JFV tried imitating plywoodstatenative--who has been blogging going back to at least 2006. And then JFV claimed that he was the original blogger and plywoodstatenative was the imposter. His shenanigans I usually ignore, but imitating other bloggers is unacceptable.

I expect that he will come back as hmmm



Shh! Dont give ideas.
LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:


Shh! Dont give ideas.
LOL!



right i would re move the last too names be for he think about copying cat one of them we dont want too see are 2 main blogers banned be come of a little mix up
Ok, I give up.. how do I find out how long I have been here?
I know I have been a paid member since 2007
I just wonder what will happen if JFV takes any of those handles up. It would be....interesting to see the reactions. Any of those handles could annihilate him if they chose.

Skeypony I remember when this site was cirrus. How odd it didn't have a www in the site address.
700. JLPR2
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I give up.. how do I find out how long I have been here?
I know I have been a paid member since 2007


Settings, besides where it says (Welcome back)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I give up.. how do I find out how long I have been here?
I know I have been a paid member since 2007
We're supposed to be paying? Uh oh, I hope they don't hit me up for 5 years of back pay! LOL
I wunder how we're doing with site traffic over the years. I remember Dr. Masters once posting a couple years ago about us being in the top 100 most visited sites on the internet, but I don't know how we're fairing since then.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I give up.. how do I find out how long I have been here?
I know I have been a paid member since 2007


http://www.wunderground.com/member/membersettings.html <-- "Member Since"
Levi, that's utterly terrific, dude. By when will it be ddebutted?
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
We're supposed to be paying? Uh oh, I hope they don't hit me up for 5 years of back pay! LOL

aaahhh..... oops! LOL!
Quoting jlp09550:


http://www.wunderground.com/member/membersettings.html <-- "Member Since"


OK, it seems soooo much longer then 2007
Where is the one that tells you how many posts you have made?
JP, congrats on your milestone, my man. I'm gonna go look up my info.
Between the swirls, oil & heat it's easy to forget.. The great Arctic melt is under way, smashing records. Update here.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
What month and year did Hurricane Dean strike? I do remember following that storm on here. I thought it was early in the 2005 season.

August 2007.
Quoting fatlady99:

aaahhh..... oops! LOL!


I pay...and I pay for the wife (SWMBO) to have one, and she is seldom on. If someone provides an excellent service.. I like to support them.
Ive been here since 2005 i was will40 then but see ive aged 5 years lmao
lol

Link



hit the link
Member since 09-08-2001. Long time.
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, it seems soooo much longer then 2007
Where is the one that tells you how many posts you have made?


Main blog index....right-hand side "community participation"
Quoting Orcasystems:


I pay...and I pay for the wife (SWMBO) to have one, and she is seldom on. If someone provides an excellent service.. I like to support them.

no argument here! sometimes the $5 is hard to come by, tho, but I agree WU is worth it.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Absolutely. He's much more intelligent than me so I have no right to criticize, just my opinion.


Just more educated not necessarily more intelligent.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

August 2007.
Then it's not Dean I'm thinking of, because I followed Katrina on here.
Ya'll seen this wunderphoto by teach50? Thoughts?
Quoting Levi32:


Main blog index....right-hand side "community participation"


Dunka :)
.
Quoting Tazmanian:
lol

Link



hit the link


I don't understand. What did they do wrong? ;)
Skye - you just took me down the path of Memory Lane... started following site in 2000-2001, was here daily during '04 and joined in '05 with my $5 membership. Had my morning coffee with many of you while talking weather, burros, Juan Valdez and whatever strange thing we could chat about. : )
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ That's sad about not being able to post in '05..

I wunder if anyone ever Won the free year membership offer from Masters first blog, capturing a complete round rainbow.

I started coming here in 97 or 98. This place was pretty popular with Kennedy Space Center employees pretty early on. Was here daily once the '04 frenzy got underway. The blogs brought on such a new level of entertainment the next year~ by Oct '05 I shelled out $5 for membership.
Quoting Skyepony:
Between the swirls, oil & heat it's easy to forget.. The great Arctic melt is under way, smashing records. Update here.


Probably won't beat 2007 at this rate. Arctic mean temperatures have dipped below average this summer. The record warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) likely has a lot to do with the melting, which is mostly taking place on the Atlantic side.

I believe if you had forgotten your password or username then it will not show your original signup date. It is showing mine to be July of 2008. AllBoardedUp wasn't my original username, I don't remember it.
member since 7-13-08 oh wait my 2 year aniversary is coming up wow
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll seen this wunderphoto by teach50? Thoughts?


Beautiful!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Skye - you just took me down the path of Memory Lane... started following site in 2000-2001, was here daily during '04 and joined in '05 with my $5 membership. Had my morning coffee with many of you while talking weather, burros, Juan Valdez and whatever strange thing we could chat about. : )


Hey now... you told me you were only 29...
lets do the math.... hmmmmm
Quoting CoffinWood:


I don't understand. What did they do wrong? ;)



read the link and you find out
I got my driver's license the same year I joined WU....... ROFL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey now... you told me you were only 29...
lets do the math.... hmmmmm
Quoting Beachfoxx:
I got my driver's license the same year I joined WU....... ROFL


Got mine this year :) And now I can't drive.....how fair is that?
Quoting Levi32:


Got mine this year :) And now I can't drive.....how fair is that?

Alright.... WHAT did you do, Levi? LOL!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
I got my driver's license the same year I joined WU....... ROFL


I got mine in ummm hmmm
I need more fingers.
Yep, heard that they frowned on blogging & driving in AK... BUI?
Quoting Levi32:


Got mine this year :) And now I can't drive.....how fair is that?
i cant drive lol
At exactly 1:26 am EDT, I have been a member here for 11,867,797 seconds (just over 4 months).
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
At exactly 1:26 am EDT, I have been a member here for 11,867,797 seconds (just over 4 months).
I think this means Masters has been gone to long...
Quoting fatlady99:

Alright.... WHAT did you do, Levi? LOL!


LOL....well, I got my license, that's what I did. We can't pay for me to be on my parents' insurance and I can't buy my own car, so I can't drive our family car because the company won't let a family member drive it unless they are on the policy. I could drive any other car because I have a license, but have had no opportunity to do so.
OK, last update... its 22:27 and if your as old as Bf, umm I mean as old as I am.. you need your sleep :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Hey in your case you need sleep cause you are old - Me, I need my beauty rest! ROFL
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, last update... its 22:27 and if your as old as Bf, umm I mean as old as I am.. you need your sleep :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
i got my license when i was 17 which was 3 yrs ago and i can drive pretty good
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Yep, heard that they frowned on blogging & driving in AK... BUI?


Lol! Yup that's it....too many cognitive functions spent monitoring the tropics instead of the road ahead...lol.
Levi, does the GFS's consistency tell you something?
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, last update... its 22:27 and if your as old as Bf, umm I mean as old as I am.. you need your sleep :)



sweet dreams.....
747. BA
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll seen this wunderphoto by teach50? Thoughts?


aliens

/me runs :)
748. JLPR2
Well I'm heading off to bed a little earlier today, *gasp* yeah! XD

Night everyone :)
Quoting Levi32:


LOL....well, I got my license, that's what I did. We can't pay for me to be on my parents' insurance and I can't buy my own car, so I can't drive our family car because the company won't let a family member drive it unless they are on the policy. I could drive any other car because I have a license, but have had no opportunity to do so.


That's what happens in my case. Progressive said that I can't drive our vehicles if they are under my parent's names. That's why I have to use my grandma's car (which she is giving to me soon) to go places without worrying. In her case, as long as I have permission from her, I'm covered under her policy.. only because her car doesn't reside on our property.
Why not, Taz, you're a 24-year old man?
Quoting Tazmanian:



read the link and you find out


j/k Taz - I meant saving the beer from the fire was the RIGHT thing to do, lol.
Quoting Levi32:


LOL....well, I got my license, that's what I did. We can't pay for me to be on my parents' insurance and I can't buy my own car, so I can't drive our family car because the company won't let a family member drive it unless they are on the policy. I could drive any other car because I have a license, but have had no opportunity to do so.

one word..... SCOOTER!
night guys
Quoting Tazmanian:
night guys


Night!
NHC kept the % at 40
Quoting HispanicWeather:
Why not, Taz, you're a 24-year old man?



am 25 have a good night HW but i do want too some day
Driving while blogging has been proven to be hazardous to your health!
ya'll keep an eye on the tropics, between watching swirls & the oil I'm exhausted!
Have a good night everyone.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol! Yup that's it....too many cognitive functions spent monitoring the tropics instead of the road ahead...lol.
good nite everyone, just realized my 2year aniversary is tomorrow thursday!!! :)

Handle: mtyweatherfan90
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-08 21:14:00
Community Participation:

3047 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 9 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 242 comments in all blogs.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


last t.s. elliot moment:

Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o'clock in the morning.

G'nite.
3051 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 74 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27169 comments in all blogs.


Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-01 03:06:05
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36


What is the difference between the paid and free memberships? Do you have access to more information, etc?
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll seen this wunderphoto by teach50? Thoughts?


Methane emissions from Houston's annual Burrito Festival refracting from the sunlight above the clouds.

In some distant galaxy, other life forms are viewing the far away annual glow from that one spot on the planet Earth. They still think it's some atmospheric phenomenon.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
3051 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 74 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27169 comments in all blogs.


Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-01 03:06:05
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36




Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.
Quoting TexasGulf:


Methane emissions from Houston's annual Burrito Festival refracting from the sunlight above the clouds.

In some distant galaxy, other life forms are viewing the far away annual glow from that one spot on the planet Earth. They still think it's some atmospheric phenomenon.
We need to find a way to harness all that energy and put it to good use!
00z GFDL has 96L making landfall in brownsville as a moderate ts Link
96L don't seem to be looking so good....

Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


Paid membership also gets you 40 frames of radar as opposed to six. It's actually quite nice.
The NON-TROPICAL low is starting to acquire some Subtropical characteristics as some convection is forming and banding becoming evident. The NHC may take notice tomorrow if it continues to organize.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


You also get up to 40-frame radar loops instead of only 6, as well as some calender thingy features which I never use so I don't know much about. There are a good few items that you get for being a paid member besides ads.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


Quoting TexasHurricane:
96L don't seem to be looking so good....



I disagree (IMHO) -- it seems to be consolidating its circulation in the northern Yucatan. Now, it doesn't have any deep convection there right now. But I bet by tomorrow morning it'll be firing. Convection comes and goes; consolidating to a single circulation is the most important thing for it to do right now.
Quoting jlp09550:




Right...it was email alerts, not calender.
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.
I guess I need to pay up... ;-)

Handle: Houstonia
Status: Your No-Ads Membership Expired!
Expiration: 2009-08-29 21:56:23
Signed Up: 2003-05-20 16:53:44

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.
You have posted 62 comments in all blogs.

I've probably posted more comments this year than all years combined...
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.


Yeah, I don't get any ads either (because I use Firefox/Adblock), despite not being a paid member. Hence my earlier question to Keeper about circumvention of ads via Adblock.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.


I have Firefox and never saw the ads either (even before upgrading to the paid account). I'm pretty sure the pop-up blocker prevents them.
Green track was Alex, orange is my best guess for 96L's path so far. Looks like it has a pretty good circular flow now, just waiting for the cloud bursts to start again. Should be back in the water pretty soon, if it isn't already.

772, thanks, I might have to look into being a paid member. You ought to get a commission!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
772, thanks, I might have to look into being a paid member. You ought to get a commission!


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?
Quoting jlp09550:


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Quoting jlp09550:


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Same here, been a long day.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...


Been on WU for some time myself.......Use to Pay the $10.00 but, since i have been Banned for no truly good cause......other than truly helping people......i would never pay them $10.00 again......JMHO!
00z hwrf has a landfall on south padre island as a mod/strong ts Link
Quoting duajones78413:
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?


TS, may or may not hit you.
Nite all, check back tomorrow.
790. Daveg
Quoting duajones78413:
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?


NHC currently is calling for a 40% chance of a tropical depression within 48 hrs, while most models are currently showing a landfall within 100 miles or so of Brownsville. I'm not exactly sure where Corpus Christi is but if it's near Brownsville, I would at least keep an eye on it. Most likely a heavy rain event at the minimum.

NHC
Models for 96L
Quoting Daveg:


Just like watching Alex all over again (as far as tracking)....weird. Ok, now I'm out.
Don't know if you all have looked at the BP oil LIve feeds lately or not, but the BOP appears to be swaying back and forth now....could be just an illusion but, it sure looks very unstable now......i have links on my WU blog to my site with the live feeds if anyone wants to observe.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't know if you all have looked at the BP oil LIve feeds lately or not, but the BOP appears to be swaying back and forth now....could be just an illusion but, it sure looks very unstable now......i have links on my WU blog to my site with the live feeds if anyone wants to observe.


Well, they've got 8-10' waves out there right now, so I'm not surprised.
wow got so quiet now lol
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...


You can get 40 frames of radar without paying just change num (number of frames)
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

to

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

but you still get ads



Quoting Daveg:


I wouldn't even trust those models. Only one still viable is HWRF and even then the system seems to be headed more north then any present model predicts. It almost seems as if an eye wall is being built at 21.5N, 89W; watching with IR4. NHC was predicting that Alex was going to hit 160 miles south of where it did. This was when it had already entered the gulf; same exact western curve to it, but they kept moving it north as the system progressed.

looks like the tvcn is in line with the gfdl lol
96L looks a little dry tonight. It has about 48-54 hours to do something until it hits land going by the OOZ GFDL. 96L better start popping soon or it's toast lol I don't think this invest has much of a chance looking at the latest satellite images. I think the NHC is being quite generous with 40% imo. It sure doesn't have the time that Alex had. The GFS has been persistent showing the TUTT moving away and light trade winds in the E Atlantic within the next 14 days. That is when things are going to get real interesting with these CV waves coming across. The pattern looks more similar to what you see in mid August and does not bode well for residents in the W GOM. You guys are going to be glued to the tv and internet in the next couple of weeks most likely.
Ya'll convinced me to pop for the $10.00 I have lurked for years...long time.
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


You can get 40 frames of radar without paying just change num (number of frames)
http://www.wunde rground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99 &lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&a mp;lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

to

http://www.wunde rground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99 &lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&a mp;lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

but you still get ads





Interesting circumvention method. lol
96-L little more than a trough now no apparent circulation....just enough of a nuisance to
keep skimmer vessels in port another day or two. There has been no organized skimming at
Deepwater Horizon site since Alex...hopefully
winds and seas subside sooner than expected....
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 93 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.6 °F
its 40% cause it just needs convection somebody is not patient
and no ecmwf hasnt nailed it sorry
850mb vitocity getting less enlongated now hmmm and still getting stronger
ULL moving away from 96L, will be interesting to see if the dry air will move with it or stick around to inhibit 96L development. The circulation is still profound though.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Conditions at 42055 as of
(2:50 am CDT)
0750 GMT on 07/07/2010:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 88 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °F
96L looks no good however back over water he could develope into TD today
812. IKE
NEW BLOG!