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Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All.

That's one heck of a ridge forecast by the GFS at the end of the run. Are we sure this is November? And El Nino to boot?


LOL... I've been asking myself that with all these madness happening with the WX this year. Got to love when WX is this unpredictable... even forecast models are burning out. :)
Quoting Weather456:
In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.


Sure thing... that should reinforce the already cooler WX in the SE CONUS. Currently 8:33AM ET and still looking @ 64.3F under considerable cloudiness @ my local in CFL.
back too sleep i go



000
ABNT20 KNHC 031150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
506. beell
Anybody looked at the 200mb GFS over the next 120 hours and beyond? N of 15N?
Quoting Weather456:
In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.



That couldn't be any further from what "Normally" happens this time of year. Do you put any stock into a ridge of that magnitude? Even a blend of the October / November climatology, since we really haven't crossed the summer threshold yet, wouldn't yield a track of that nature, not even close.


More fuel for the "Old Grey Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be" phrase?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



That couldn't be any further from what "Normally" happens this time of year. Do you put any stock into a ridge of that magnitude? Even a blend of the October / November climatology, since we really haven't crossed the summer threshold yet, wouldn't yield a track of that nature, not even close.


More fuel for the "Old Grey Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be" phrase?


somewhat due to the fact that mid-latitude dynamics are easier forecasted and that is the model consensus.
543

WHXX01 KWBC 031219

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1219 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W

BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W

BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W

LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W

BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W

BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W

LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W

SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT

LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.
511. beell
Quoting beell:
Anybody looked at the 200mb GFS over the next 120 hours and beyond? N of 15N?


Oh, well. Must not be worthy of consideration.
Later, folks. Have a good 'un!
512. IKE
Pretty good consensus....

Quoting Skyepony:
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.


NHC does not control the floaters or the names assigned to them, that is SSD. If you go by the ATCF Database that is NHC, not to say they don't screw that up either though.


I see we have an Invest 97L...Looks to be going inland...
there was a character on the blogs back at the turn of the century dixiebreeze who had the number 1 connection. the floater was moved within hours
Quoting crownwx:
Thanks for posting my discussion portcharlotte.




You are Welcome
Any thoughts on the spin at ~63W 26N?
Quoting Skyepony:
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.


the problem is that the lesser reliable CMC is the model which is forecasting this. something to watch in case tho.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Any thoughts on the spin at ~63W 26N?


a surface low along the trough that drapes south of 96L.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC does not control the floaters or the names assigned to them, that is SSD. If you go by the ATCF Database that is NHC, not to say they don't screw that up either though.


I think my difficulty has been NOAA in general (which covers both).
Wow. I look this morning at there is an ORANGE circle....

Still something to watch and blog about.
What is going on over Columbia? Did the ITCZ fork?
The diagonal storms across Brazil, Lack of defined westerly flow from North Africa. Is this a typical anything?
Quoting beell:


Oh, well. Must not be worthy of consideration.
Later, folks. Have a good 'un!


Lot's of destructive shear. Probably why the ships keeps the AOI in check through 120hr @ 37kts. May be able to strengthen a bit once it starts running with the shear though, kinda like Wilma did.

If it's in the BAMMD position (19.2N 85.5W Heading N) at the end of the run, I would look for a strengthening Topical Storm heading NE shortly thereafter. That is assuming, which is a safe bet this time of year, that a trough will come and pick it up eventually.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Still no floater on 97L amazing....years ago it would have been on before an Invest was named....Wow has times changed from the money crunch......speaking of money crunch the Dow will fall sharply at opening bell....major sell off in Asia overnite....Back to weather.


Tim be careful, the admins are cracking down hard.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Lot's of destructive shear. Probably why the ships keeps the AOI in check through 120hr @ 37kts. May be able to strengthen a bit once it starts running with the shear though, kinda like Wilma did.

If it's in the BAMMD position (19.2N 85.5W Heading N) at the end of the run, I would look for a strengthening Topical Storm heading NE shortly thereafter. That is assuming, which is a safe bet this time of year, that a trough will come and pick it up eventually.


which is why I think shear and proximity to land will be two moderating factors.
Quoting Weather456:


the problem is that the lesser reliable CMC is the model which is forecasting this. something to watch in case tho.


End of a front & that has been a popular area somewhat this year to try & spin something up. Trick is if the end of the front will be north enough.
Quoting Skyepony:


End of a front & that has been a popular area somewhat this year to try & spin something up. Trick is if the end of the front will north enough.


not only that but end of the fronts genesis counts for about 10-15% of Atlantic TCs, 2nd to tropical waves.
They just took the floater off the depression (24W) about to hit the Philippines, Looks like that may go south of Manila & wander through the islands.
area of squally weather heading for the centarl windward islands. there has also been a blow up of convection near 12n 50w. there is also evidence of of cyclonic turning in the mid levels. could be a wet and blustery period ahead for the islands
456~ good point. It's pretty much how we got Claudette. End of front + tropical wave. I found it worth an outside chance, atleast at this point.
Quoting Weather456:


now only that but end of the fronts count for about 10% of TCs, 2nd to tropical waves.


456 I have a question. If a low forms in the southwest Gulf would that feature tend to deepen the trough more than expected and cause more northward movement of the Carib system?...
Quoting Skyepony:
456~ good point. It's pretty much how we got Claudette. End of front + tropical wave. I found it worth an outside chance, atleast at this point.


and 90L





Last frame.....
97L is looking rather sick....
Quoting portcharlotte:


456 I have a question. If a low forms in the southwest Gulf would that feature tend to deepen the trough more than expected and cause more northward movement of the Carib system?...


Not deepen the trough but extend the weakness, sort of a bridge connection, this is most effective if the cyclone is subtropical or extra tropical.
Fresh quikscat. Misses 97L, nothing going on at the surface in the GOM, trying out there in the EPAC..



Check out the Convergence in the BOC....WOW!

I know Shear is high and good thing it is...



97L floater isn't aimed anywhere near where Navy has 97L
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh quikscat. Misses 97L, nothing going on at the surface in the GOM, trying out there in the EPAC..



It can't. Have you ever heard the Tehauntepec Wind event. Gale to storm force northerly winds will prevent any circulation from forming during the passage of strong fronts.

Now imagine if the the isthmus of Tehauntepec (the narrow area between the Yucatan and Mainland Mexico) did not have a valley for the north winds to blow though. Then they would round the coast of the Bay of Campeche and there would always be enough circulation for something to develop.
97L floater isn't aimed anywhere near where Navy has 97L...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Check out the Convergence in the BOC....WOW!

I know Shear is high and good thing it is...





That convergence is not due to cyclonic turning.

That convergence is caused when the northerly winds behind the front meet the terrain of Mexico and slows down as it flows though the valleys of the isthmus of Tehauntepec. Anytime air slows down convergence occurs.

Sickly TSpin?

I was about to say Red & TCFA this afternoon. Ariel coverage has decreased, yes, but T-Storm density and organization have increased around the center.
Quoting Weather456:


Not deepen the trough but extend the weakness, sort of a bridge connection, this is most effective if the cyclone is subtropical or extra tropical.


Thanks so I guess it could be said that such a development could pull the Carib system more easily to the north in the short term.
Statement as of 11:40 am EST on November 2, 2009

... October set an all-time driest record for Fort Lauderdale...

Fort Lauderdale set the record for the all-time driest October in
2009. Rainfall for October 2009 at Fort Lauderdale was only 0.73
inches. This was 5.71 inches below average. The previous driest
October for Fort Lauderdale was 0.94 inches set in 1977.
456~ I totally agree, some watch the persistent convection & mention how about there.. Quikscat confirms how about not..
Navy's 97L


NOAA's (SSD) 97L


I think I'll stay out of this one today..



Surface winds show it very disorganized and possibly 2 spins with the strongest inland in Panama...stronger winds in the Pacific.
Quoting portcharlotte:


Thanks so I guess it could be said that such a development could pull the Carib system more easily to the north in the short term.


It cannot be short-term since what ever the models were developing over the BOC was in 1 week around the same time as the next trough.

I also suspected yesterday that what ever was in the BOM was connected to the SW Caribbean disturbance, since the time frames were reasonable. It could be 1 system following the weakness into the GOM.

Quoting Skyepony:
456~ I totally agree, some watch the persistent convection & mention how about there.. Quikscat confirms how about not..
Navy's


NOAA's (SSD) 97L


I think I'll stay out of this one today..



Erika
TheCaneWhisperer~ Ya'll south of me seem to be the driest so far. That spring/summer 2nd year in an El Nino is when some part of FL if not the whole thing tends to try & burn down. Even though we have over all worse storms over the winter.. I'll point out again chances are good for a killer tornado outbreak (atleast 20) somewhere across FL this February.. El Nino is maturing in fine form (the graph is in my blog), so climo (back through the 80s) gives this a very good chance of passing..
Quoting Weather456:


It cannot be short-term since what ever the models were developing over the BOC was in 1 week around the same time as the next trough.

Thanks, I understand
I have been saying there is a suface Low in the BOC...as QuikScat has caught it twice.....you all can decide.....Everyone have a nice day......BBL tonite...

Tropical Depression 'Tino'(TD24) heading for N. Luzon

By Nikko Dizon
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines
A low-pressure area hovering east of northern Luzon has intensified into a tropical depression Monday afternoon, making it the 20th weather disturbance to enter the storm-weary country this year.

Tropical Depression' Tino'(TD24) was estimated to be 270 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City in Cagayan as of 4 p.m. Monday, packing maximum winds of 55 kilometers per hour. It was forecast to move west northwest at 15 kph, according to the weather bureau.

Based on the average number of typhoons that hit the country yearly, there could be one to two more typhoons this month and another in December, said Nathaniel Cruz, deputy director of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Storm Signal No. 1 was raised Monday over Isabela, Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Islands, and the Batanes group of islands.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flash floods and landslides, PAGASA said.

It said the rest of northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.

Upgrade

Only hours before the low-pressure area officially became Tino, PAGASA officials were not expecting it to become a tropical depression.

But Cruz told the Philippine Daily Inquirer by phone that the weather bureau decided to upgrade the low-pressure area to a tropical depression after developing stronger winds associated with the northeast monsoon.

Tino was expected to be at 90 km north of Aparri town in Cagayan or at the vicinity of Calayan Island later Tuesday afternoon.

The tropical depression was forecast to be 420 km northwest of Aparri or 330 km west northwest of Basco town in Batanes by Wednesday afternoon.

Strong gale winds were also expected to affect the northern and central Luzon seaboards.

Warning against boats

PAGASA warned fishing boats and other small sea craft against venturing out into the sea. Larger vessels were alerted against big waves.

The western seaboard of Ilocos and Central Luzon will have rough to high seas with waves as high as 7.5 meters.

The eastern seaboard will have rough to high seas with waves reaching 6.5 meters.

PAGASA said Tuguegarao would experience rains with gusty winds Tuesday and cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

The cities of Laoag and Baguio will be cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week.

Metro Manila, Olongapo, Angeles and Tagaytay cities will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday until the rest of the week.

The cities of Legazpi, Puerto Princesa, Iloilo, Bacolod, Cebu, Tacloban, Cagayan de Oro, Davao and Zamboanga will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and will be mostly cloudy with rain showers for the rest of the week.

Death toll from Santi

On Saturday, Typhoon Santi (international codename: Mirinae) smashed the storm-weary nation, killing 16 people.

Damage to infrastructure in Camarines Norte alone was pegged at P15.6 million, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

Damage to agriculture was initially placed at P159 million, according to the Department of Agriculture.

The estimates were as of 5 p.m. on Nov. 1.

The damage was in addition to more than P27 billion in agricultural losses caused by two recent storms Pepeng (Parma) caused P20.48 billion in agricultural damage and Ondoy (Ketsana), P6.67 billion.

Santi dumped heavy rain and brought strong winds just weeks after Pepeng and Ondoy left about 1,100 dead and tens of thousands homeless.

Fewer casualties

The evacuation of more than 115,000 people in the days before the typhoon had resulted in fewer casualties compared with the other two storms, the NDCC said.

Most of those who were moved into evacuation sites have been trickling back to their homes since Sunday, it said.

The NDCC said the deaths from Santi were due mostly to drowning and occurred in suburban areas just south of Manila and in two eastern provinces.

One fisherman remained missing while 38 others were rescued on Monday after they set sail in bad weather in 17 small boats from the coastal town of Claveria in Cagayan, police said.

Rescuers helped to pull back 14 of the boats, but three were wrecked by high waves caused by heavy winds associated with Santi, police said.

In its latest report, the NDCC said eight people were killed in Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) and eight in Bicol when the typhoon battered the two regions on Friday night before swiftly sweeping Metro Manila.

Of the eight people killed in Bicol, seven were from Camarines Norte and one from Catanduanes.

Missing persons

The number of missing persons stood at four from Laguna, Quezon and Batangas, according to a report of Glenn Rabonza, NDCC executive officer.

The number of families provided shelter in evacuation centers has ballooned to 3,924, or 19,356 people, from Sundays figure of more than 2,000 families.

The families were being served with relief items the government had transported via a food caravan before the typhoon entered the country on Oct. 29.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development had moved P3.8 million worth of assorted relief supplies like family food packs, drinking water, blankets, noodles and medicines to cities and provinces expected to be hit by the typhoon.

Some P923,000 worth of relief goods were distributed in Metro Manila; P2.35 million in Calabarzon; and P538,083 in Bicol.

Authorities, however, said relief and rehabilitation efforts would continue for the more than 87,000 people left homeless by the two previous storms and staying in evacuation centers.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I have been saying there is a suface Low in the BOC...as QuikScat has caught it twice.....you all can decide.....Everyone have a nice day......BBL tonite...



I looked at QS and all I saw was northerly winds....any winds which are deflected is due to topography and not due cyclonic turning of the system

No circulation:

The Legend of Hurricane Jeanne (1980)
(sung to the tune of "The Legend of the Edmund Fitzgerald)

The legend lives on from the Gulf bordered states
Of the big gale they call Hurricane Jeanne
The storm, it was said, was one to quite dread
When those skies of November turned mean.

Off Central America’s shore – it developed a core
And caught everyone by surprise
Moving west it grew and was a bone to be chewed
When the gales of November did rise

Into the Gulf, the American side
Coming close to the Cuban shore
As the big storms go it was bigger than most
With an outflow and savage winds of war.

But a front from above showed Jeanne no love
And soon it began to die
And later that night when it really felt right
The NHC said its goodbyes.

The legend lives on from the Gulf bordered states
Of the big gale they call Hurricane Jeanne
The storm, it turned out, was not one to dread
T'was just a witch of November come stealing.
HPC has that East Ridge hanging tough...Hard to believe that this pattern keeps persisting.
567. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:


I looked at QS and all I saw was northerly winds....any winds which are deflected is due to topography and not due cyclonic turning of the system

No circulation:



plus 1
Quoting StormW:
Hey 456.
Quoting StormW:
Hey 456.
Quoting StormW:
Hey 456.


hey chief
Recon for Wednesday Afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
I tell ya...the steering looks more like June than November

after the current trough passes, the other does not reach the central plains until 1 week while the system chugs northwesterly in the return flow of the deep layer ridge sitting offshore the E Coast.

Quoting portcharlotte:


As illustrated here



Now you see how the features over the W GOM and WCARIB have an area of connected vort. Its basically weakness and the systems following it sorta like bridge connections.

Shear is not too favorable to the north unless the system hugs the coast
Quoting Skyepony:
TheCaneWhisperer~ Ya'll south of me seem to be the driest so far. That spring/summer 2nd year in an El Nino is when some part of FL if not the whole thing tends to try & burn down. Even though we have over all worse storms over the winter.. I'll point out again chances are good for a killer tornado outbreak (atleast 20) somewhere across FL this February.. El Nino is maturing in fine form (the graph is in my blog), so climo (back through the 80s) gives this a very good chance of passing..


Dry as a bone in these parts. You can have the nadoes, just send some precip.

Quoting StormW:


97L becoming better organized as we speak.


Structurally, yea

Quoting portcharlotte:
Shear is not too favorable to the north unless the system hugs the coast


stay low, or it could get a hair cut.
Not much shear 15kts or so were 97L is so some slow development seems probable.just to its north a 40-45kt jet streak lies across the Caribbean. Any signifcant impacts other then some increased precip across the southeast appears unlikley as of now. 120hrs out 200-850mb GFS vertical windshear forcast.12z NAM is bullish and keeps it stationary.
Great explanation graphically and in your words!! Thanks
456..thanks for that great explanation!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I added the models.....have a good day.

TampaSpin: Your interactive weather center, links, etc. are so good...and dare I say it, make learning fun!
Quoting Weather456:


stay low, or it could get a hair cut.


Right...For now it will do better to stay low until the sheer scissors disappear later in the week.
Looks like SSD got the 97L floater aimed in the right direction now..
As I suspected last night, 97L is born. It looks good structurally, but needs some convection to really get going. It's under 10 knots of shear, should stay down there for a few days, after those few models models show wind shear decreasing in the Gulf. So it definitely bears watching.
Quoting StormW:


Yea...wierd for November. I was just going over the recent steering layers forecast maps...I gotta go with a WNW motion, and the left model guidance for the next 48-72 hours, albeit slow. Looks like after that, the low feature in the EPAC aids in creating a weakness, and allows 97L or what's left to make it to the BOC as you and I and some others have been thinking. Of course too...the steering layers forecast maps have been kind of sluggish since October, and I expect we'll probably see them change somewhat. I don't think they have a good handle right now on the weaknesses you've pointed out.


yea, but I will go with nw, it could cross Honduras into the Gulf of Honduras and over the Yucatan into the BOC.

the 00Z ECMWF sort of have far east while the GFS has a more westerly component.

I'll have to go with the GFS even though it isn't really being consistent having trouble after the feature goes into the Gulf of Honduras.
November



June

BAMD

a little left at the end, dont think the system will be deep.



Quoting reedzone:
As I suspected last night, 97L is born. It looks good structurally, but needs some convection to really get going. It's under 10 knots of shear, should stay down there for a few days, after those few models models show wind shear decreasing in the Gulf. So it definitely bears watching.


Decreaseing shear? Not sure about that models are showing a very hostile upper environment across the southeast in terms of strong westerlies. Other then that development seems like a good bet into a td/ts as conditions are less hostile way south.
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting StormW:


Yea...I just saw that with the ECMWF.

Light bulb just went on too...GFS track and CMC for that matter may not be too far fetched, as they probably expect 97L to become strong enough to be taken over by the mid layer mean, which would add a more northerly component. Oh yea, gotta say...been great forecasting with you this season!


same here...

It seems most of the return flow around the high is in the low and mid levels so yea I kinda agree with the west of north but I'm edging on a more northerly motion at the end of the forecast cycle.

I'm thinking the BAMM is a bit far left