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Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Patrap
Quoting brla61:
Hello Everyone! Just coming out of my cave:)Yay, it's the first time I'v seen sunlight all day. Hey Patrap,how are you? I heard about a tornado in nola this am.



F-0 in Gentilly.

Minimal Damage..but it did put a Garbage can up on the Telephone Pole wires,dat was cool.,downed some trees.

And Did some roof damage.

NWS Confirmed F-0
Quoting cg2916:


Which one?

i mistyped my post i reedited it plz re look at it
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok i was this makeing sure


The JFV stuff is getting really old. You use more posts interrogating people about who they are than you do on the weather. Enough already. Please let the moderators do their job. And if you are still concerned, use the "Ignore" function. Thanks.
Time: 22:58:30Z
Coordinates: 21.5667N 91.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 645.4 mb (~ 19.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,811 meters (~ 12,503 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.5 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 27° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Dew Pt: 2.4°C (~ 36.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate:
2005. Patrap


by Mike Hoss / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on July 6, 2010 at 11:23 AM

Updated today at 5:27 PM
Related:



GENTILLY, La. – A snapped tree and blown off shingles are the usual remnants of a strong storm, but the weak tornado that touched down this morning on Prentiss Street in Gentilly produced a new visual: a trash can, sitting some 30 feet in the air.

It was blown up there by the storm, but it looked as if someone had placed it there perfectly in between two electrical wires.



Can up on wires
2006. brla61
Quoting Patrap:



F-0 in Gentilly.

Minimal Damage..but it did put a Garbage can up on the Telephone Pole wires,dat was cool.,downed some trees.

And Did some roof damage.

NWS Confirmed F-0

Minimal Damge is always good news..This season is some kind of eerie. Even the administration at the surgical hospital where I work are talking about evacuating the hospital if needed, this year.That's never been done..
2007. Patrap
95L feeder Band slams Uptown NOLA 4:30Pm July 5th 2010

Time: 22:59:30Z
Coordinates: 21.4833N 91.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 645.4 mb (~ 19.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,810 meters (~ 12,500 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.1 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 22° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.6°C (~ 47.5°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (~ 35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
guys, do you think that 96l could follow a similar track as Alex did, cause we don't need anymore rain!!! Easily some spots have surpassed 1 meter of rainfall in the last 7 days and at my spot I'm around 750 mm or (30 in).
2010. Levi32
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.

i am watching Central Atlantic 40 west
3062 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 6 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 5682 comments in all blogs.

Handle: btwntx08
Status: no membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-13 16:28:47
Keeper - I thought I had a "justasking" handle in the past but the site couldn't find me, so I created a new account. And when I pull up the blog list I don't even see my handle listed. What's with the inquisition?

Your Membership:
Handle: justasking
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2010-07-05 13:26:31
2014. JLPR2
SAL! :)

At last a decent surge of SAL
Quoting btwntx08:
3062 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 6 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 5682 comments in all blogs.

Handle: btwntx08
Status: no membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-13 16:28:47




thats nic i be out 50,000 commets this year
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care if it did officially or not. 947mb is a major hurricane in my book. The total kinetic energy of the storm far surpassed most Cat 3s that you could pull up. A clear 15nm eye is not something you usually find in a Cat 2 either.

The pressure is a better measure of the overall power of the storm. The surface winds likely were Cat 3-force at landfall but there were no surface stations in the area.

Officially yes it was a Cat 2, but in reality, Alex was a major hurricane by any standard.


I kind of agree with you. Like Ike... came in at 950... but "only" a Cat 2. Much worse than a "typical" Cat 2.
Quoting btwntx08:
3062 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 6 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 5682 comments in all blogs.

Handle: btwntx08
Status: no membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-13 16:28:47
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care if it did officially or not. 947mb is a major hurricane in my book. The total kinetic energy of the storm far surpassed most Cat 3s that you could pull up. A clear 15nm eye is not something you usually find in a Cat 2 either.

The pressure is a better measure of the overall power of the storm. The surface winds likely were Cat 3-force at landfall but there were no surface stations in the area.

Officially yes it was a Cat 2, but in reality, Alex was a major hurricane by any standard.



any ch of a upgrad in post season,
2019. CJC111
Levi, post 1928. If that were to happen, 95L would have to return to the gulf and wait a year for litigation :)
Quoting Levi32:
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.



So what are you saying Levi, 96L a puss?
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats nic i be out 50,000 commets this year
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself
The current aircraft going to check out 96L isn't to see if there is a surface circulation or anything to that effect.
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?



look where it say fatured Blogs

fatured Blogs:
Portlight Disaster Relief
Hurricane Alex Response
Read Post - 2 comments
Tropical Weather Blog
Little change to our 4 areas of...
Read Post - 3 comments
Tropical Weather Discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion - W...
Read Post - 35 comments
Dr. Rob Carver's WunderBlog
Severe Weather in the Northern ...
Read Post - 3 comments
WunderPress Blog
Check your flights on wundergro...
Read Post - 4 comments
Northeast Weather Blog
Wintry week of weather ahead
Read Post - 1129 comments

then you see this

Search The Blogs:


then you see this

Community Participation:

3083 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 5074 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 44826 comments in all blogs.


i hop this helps
2024. Dakster
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?


Where do you get all of the info? I haven't created or posted my own blog so that part is empty...

look at my video..i am showing you the wave at 40 west..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself



lol lol lol
2028. USSINS
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I always thought that the size of the circle was directly related to the broadness of the circulation and/or inability to determine a clear LLC.



Apparently, everything is being "r e v i s e d" these days, but not surprising though, everything else is upside down, too. ;) New age, new ways. That's ok. Times change.

We've got TD's that aren't TD's. We've got no TD's when there should be. We've got monsoonal and typhoonal, maximas and moisture gyre's. And, a few more. LOL.

It's weather, and it hadn't changed all that much. It's just some years are more severe than others.
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
Actually, where do you get the bottom information?
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?

in the blog directory just scroll down a bit its on the lower right hand side when u scroll
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself



would t you do the same if you did have any thing better too do?>
2032. JLPR2
Quoting THUNDERPR:


whoa, wait a second, I'm finally going to start my classes tomorrow that cant come here LOL! :P
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
go to blog display page look to your right and down to Community Participation just under featured bloggers list
Quoting Dakster:


Where do you get all of the info? I haven't created or posted my own blog so that part is empty...

Same here...
2035. Patrap
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


I kind of agree with you. Like Ike... came in at 950... but "only" a Cat 2. Much worse than a "typical" Cat 2.


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt
2036. Grothar
My only contribution for the day. Hope everyone is well.

2037. Dakster
Here is what I got, I can't find my join date either...

Community Participation:

3105 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 2520 comments in all blogs.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually, where do you get the bottom information?

go to ur settings its there
Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt


hush...pfffft
Good evening all

Hope every one is doping good and is safe with all the rain out there.
2041. Patrap
SSscale numbers are the last thing to Quantify a Hurricane Impact.

Thats always done with the Human eye.

Not many Cat 3's create a 30 ft Surge at Landfall.


watch my video
Handle: GeoffreyWPB
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-04-22 19:59:20
Signed Up: 2007-09-10 18:04:40
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
watch my video



will you stop posting that
2045. JLPR2
Quoting THUNDERPR:


whoops, no, the same one, eh.. I thought I had a link to the other one XD
Found the top part finally!
3114 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 7 comments in all blogs.
2047. Dakster
Finally found the rest under My Settings...

Here ya go:

Handle: Dakster
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2006-03-10 17:13:03

Quoting mahep1911:
Good evening all

Hope every one is doping good and is safe with all the rain out there.


I'm doing pretty good, only doping on Mr. Beam though.......LOL
2049. Levi32
Quoting StormSurgeon:


So what are you saying Levi, 96L a puss?


I'm saying that they are finding evidence of the broad mid-level circulation around the Yucatan Peninsula, and hopefully further investigation by the recon plane will give us some more info on what the structure is like.
Quoting Dakster:
Finally found the rest under My Settings...

Here ya go:

Handle: Dakster
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2006-03-10 17:13:03

You beat me there. Lol.

Signed Up: 2009-09-01 22:23:51

Back to the tropics...
Handle: muddertracker
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-06-02 17:23:33
Signed Up: 2007-08-16 19:15:42

652 posts to date! I lurked forever...maybe I should still be lurking...

2048 sorry slip of the fingers on here. Look to be a very busy season.
2053. Levi32
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.

can some one tell me if se texas needs to be watching 96L? i have to drive to dallas friday and dont want to be stuck in that crap...to no ahead of time would be great...thanks!
As of late, those big waves coming off of Africa fizzle like an Alka-Seltzer once they hit water.
Quoting mahep1911:
2048 sorry slip of the fingers on here. Look to be a very busy season.



yup


hey all what do other mode runs show
2057. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt


Lol. So I guess living through Betsy and Katrina helped you forecast hurricanes better? :P
How likely is that blow-up of convection (is that the right name?) in the mid-gulf to develope into something and will it affect Mississippi?
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.




where dos the rest of the run take it?
2060. Dakster
Nah Muddertracker, you should be involved. The more the merrier.

Waiting on this 8pm report and model runs!
Quoting Levi32:


I'm saying that they are finding evidence of the broad mid-level circulation around the Yucatan Peninsula, and hopefully further investigation by the recon plane will give us some more info on what the structure is like.


Spoken like an expert, been on that bandwagon for two days.....by the way, what's up Levi?
2062. Levi32
The Cape Verde development on the long-range GFS ties right in with my post from earlier. This pattern is very favorable for this to happen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms.

The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.

Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt
don't forget the 900 million snowflakes just ribbing levi don't take it to heart
2065. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



where dos the rest of the run take it?


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.
Levi, what are the chances of this non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics??

so that P-3 is checking out 96L's MLC hmm odd
2068. Patrap
Yup..and the 13 other eyewall's and specifics to them.

Let alone the TS's and other Vortexes to boot.

Plttttttttttttt...............

Im lost as to Snowflakes I must admit.

Quoting Levi32:


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.




how sad
Quoting Dakster:
Nah Muddertracker, you should be involved. The more the merrier.

Waiting on this 8pm report and model runs!
Me, too. I'm curious about what 96 has in store...some surprises, maybe?
2071. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.



Parallel version:



I think I'm happier with this one XD
2072. Dakster
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.
2073. Levi32
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Spoken like an expert, been on that bandwagon for two days.....by the way, what's up Levi?


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex lol.
Quoting Levi32:


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.
Lol. Well it goes to show how favorable conditions will be for a Cape Verde type system to develop regardless of how far out it is.
2075. Levi32
Perhaps feeling the warming of the temperature by several degrees Celsius inside the eye of a hurricane could inspire one to infer the core structure of a hurricane....you never know.
96L will probably grow rapidly once it is done with the Yucatan.
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.

It's hard to find the US in that image from #2053. Maybe it's just me though. I find that many times, it takes me a few seconds to make out the geographical outline in some types of maps.
Recon is now finding west winds
2080. centex
What is the forecast for the dry air in western gulf? Like in 24-36 hours?
2081. Levi32
Quoting cyclonekid:
Levi, what are the chances of this non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics??



That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
Quoting Dakster:
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.
To me knowledge (So I'm probably wrong, lol) there is a high placed over the S.E US and GOM and the B/A high so it will likely be a westward trucker type of system that goes straight into the Yucatan after a long trek across the Atlantic and Caribbean.
2083. Dakster
Cosmic - Yeah me too. I would like a nice red 'X' and 'you are here'...
2084. beell
One thing is for certain, Anything I or anyone else may say to or about Levi...it will not deter him in the pusuit of his tropical passion. Refreshing!
2085. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To me knowledge (So I'm probably wrong, lol) there is a high placed over the S.E US and GOM and the B/A high so it will likely be a westward trucker type of system that goes straight into the Yucatan after a long trak across the Atlantic and Caribbean.


Ala Hurricane Season 2006?
In the older books on Hurricanes any pressure falling below 28.00 was considered a great Hurricane. These were the days before the Saffir-Simpson scale was adopted. The Sept 1947 Hurricane that hit Ft Laud was 27.97 with winds of 155. I know because I first became interested in storms at the age of 14 with this CV type and remember it very vividly.
Quoting Levi32:
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.



Levi - What GE plugin are you using for this? The one I'm using to pick up the flights is not pulling this data in. Thanks
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go to blog display page look to your right and down to Community Participation just under featured bloggers list


Link to "blog display page" ? Can't find the sucker.
NEW BLOG
2090. spathy
I tried to skim back over the recent posts about 96L.
But too much fluff.
Or other informative topics..
.
.
Can anyone tell me if 96L has multiple circulations.
I see one on the West coast of the Yucatan.
And one off shore of the East coast YTan.
I am sure thats not where things are spinning.
Cause I see swirls in the afternoon T storms.
Any clarification on a possible dominant spinnythingy!
Quoting belizeit:
Recon is now finding west winds


its not a recon mission for 96L
2092. JLPR2
NEW BLOG!
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1009mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
991mb 130° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)
909mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
743mb 130° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
681mb 105° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
617mb 175° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
571mb 195° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
546mb 220° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
528mb 220° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
498mb 170° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
485mb 195° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
410mb 165° (from the SSE) 19 knots (22 mph)
383mb 145° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
353mb 160° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
286mb 160° (from the SSE) 1 knots (1 mph)
211mb 30° (from the NNE) 7 knots (8 mph)
203mb 10° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
180mb 20° (from the NNE) 20 knots (23 mph)
172mb 355° (from the N) 22 knots (25 mph)
162mb 355° (from the N) 27 knots (31 mph)
147mb 10° (from the N) 50 knots (58 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
Quoting belizeit:
Recon is now finding west winds


This is not a recon mission for 96L
NEW BLOG
new blog!!!!!!!
Quoting Levi32:


That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
Oohh. Thanks!
How many TWO's will be posted:

1. One
2. 2-4
3. 5-8
4. It doesn't matter...It will be too many.
2099. Patrap
Er..NEW Blog Dogs and cats
Quoting Levi32:


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex.


Made it through Calc 1 and then changed majors to Geography. Couldn't handle the math....as many here.
2101. beell
blog: new
new blog
2103. IKE
Merida, MX (Airport)....21.0N and 89.7W
Updated: 22 min 6 sec ago
Overcast
81 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft
Overcast 2500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 33 ft
New Blog.
2105. Levi32
Quoting Dakster:
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.


It's a pattern that favors long-track storms that could continue WNW right towards the Caribbean and United States without recurving. Florida could certainly be a potential target for such a system that makes it all the way west, like Frances in 2004.
No posts for 10 minutes?
Quoting Patrap:
Yup..and the 13 other eyewall's and specifics to them.

Let alone the TS's and other Vortexes to boot.

Plttttttttttttt...............

Im lost as to Snowflakes I must admit.

your not lost i know right where you are
NEW BLOG
Quoting Levi32:


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex lol.


Heard that, divided by pi.........
the comments are being eaten
BIG BLOG HOLE

and Rob and new blog fell into it.....
they up the % to 40%
BLOG UPDATE
Gig 'em (atmo) - we at teh new blog, brah. So no whinin' this time. LOL
Either Patrap "WAmp..wahhhhhhhhh"ed the next/1536blog too hard
or NRAamy's "SQUAWK!!!" blew out the sensors it uses to detect incoming messages.
not good :( models shifting further south

not too shabby for the end of the first week in July!


Quoting Levi32:


That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
I'm just glad we're getting a little break from the rain and overcast skies... I'm sure it won't last much longer...
2120. centex
There are some cools temps right off coast.