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Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2014

The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model indicates that these hostile conditions will persist into early next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L in the Western Caribbean.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border has changed little since Thursday, but has the potential to develop early next week. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm's heaviest rains will likely remain offshore over the next five days.


Figure 2. VIIRS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) is growing more organized, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a medium chance of developing by Saturday. Conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F.) The storm will head slowly northwestwards, and the 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models predicted a landfall in Oman near 00 UTC Wednesday, October 29.


Video 1. New surveillance camera video released on October 23, 2014, of Hurricane Odile in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on September 14, 2014, as violent winds in the back eyewall destroyed the hotel lobby where the iCyclone chase team was sheltering.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc
Thanks Dr Masters
From the old blog

Good morning

94L has now made it offshore Belize and continues eastward. Yesterday morning I mentioned that 94L could be overtaken by the front as it sags to the South and become absorbed on the tail end, only to produce a new low thereafter. I still consider this a distinct possibility depending on the timing of the forward motion and trajectory of 94L, the speed at which the front moves to the SE through the NW Caribbean and where it eventually stalls.

It is likely to continue to the East or just South of due East today so this scenario will need to play out over the next 24 hours before the situation will become clearer.

For now 94L is very disorganized with the mid level circulation moving off to the NE away from the surface low that is moving Eastward but it is back over water with a chance to consolidate. Local conditions will see periods of heavy rain here as the westerly flow drives cloud cover in this direction. Could be a wet weekend for us with the first round of showers about to arrive. Grand Cayman is just under the leading edge of this cloud mass


I live in South Florida(over 30 years, now).

I'm watching the clouds over my head and they have a distinctive tropical spin to them. I verified the spin that I'm seeing on radar, looks to be just SE of Miami.

Anybody else see what I'm looking at?
Thanks Doc,

Amazing blast through the hotel!
4. notmaxmayfield
2:58 PM GMT on October 24, 2014
0 +
I live in South Florida(over 30 years, now).

I'm watching the clouds over my head and they have a distinctive tropical spin to them. I verified the spin that I'm seeing on radar, looks to be just SE of Miami.

Anybody else see what I'm looking at?

Been in Coral Springs for 35 years and I see the same thing.
I didn't think wind shear was that strong over 94L and the GOH? To me it looks strong to the north and east.
Quoting 6. HTTR:

4. notmaxmayfield
2:58 PM GMT on October 24, 2014
0 +
I live in South Florida(over 30 years, now).

I'm watching the clouds over my head and they have a distinctive tropical spin to them. I verified the spin that I'm seeing on radar, looks to be just SE of Miami.

Anybody else see what I'm looking at?

Been in Coral Springs for 35 years and I see the same thing.


what does that mean something tryin to form there ? loooks to be moving west ?thanks
Quoting 6. HTTR:

4. notmaxmayfield
2:58 PM GMT on October 24, 2014
0 +
I live in South Florida(over 30 years, now).

I'm watching the clouds over my head and they have a distinctive tropical spin to them. I verified the spin that I'm seeing on radar, looks to be just SE of Miami.

Anybody else see what I'm looking at?

Been in Coral Springs for 35 years and I see the same thing.



I am right on the coast and all I know is that it is very windy. I don't see any surface low.

Quoting 8. 7544:



what does that mean something tryin to form there ? loooks to be moving west ?thanks


It is moving east along a cold front. There is a circulation (non-tropical) and that is why you are seeing a westward movement on radar and satellite.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
I didn't think wind shear was that strong over 94L and the GOH? To me it looks strong to the north and east.


when we first started looking at 93l north of 93l where some stated florida would get hammered....shear was 60kts.....it's still that high...and higher than before further south.....there's a small pocket where 94l has a marginal chance.....and emphasis on marginal

GEOS-5 hasn't given up on 94L...and being forecast so near term I wouldn't be surprised if extreme South Florida didn't get some wild weather today & this evening..

Quoting 12. Grothar:


Glad the models have the track pinned down..:)
Thank you Dr. Masters
Wow 5-10kts of shear is some really high shear
Ha ha very funny Doc

Yeah high in the GOM not over the system nor the NW a Carib

Yeah dry air may be a problem but not that much
And if you look at the WV images the dry air ain't that much near the system nor over Yucatan or BOC Dry air is much however in and near Florida exception to S and SE Florida and the NE GOM

I think postTD9/94L may be able to miss the front
And I don't think the front will come down as far as some believe

Quoting 9. Grothar:




I am right on the coast and all I know is that it is very windy. I don't see any surface low.



Very windy and cloudy here in Boynton Beach
Quoting 19. GatorWX:


It does look like a few small rotations scooting back towards the west on the radar...just east of homestead.
Quoting 18. wunderkidcayman:

Wow 5-10kts of shear is some really high shear
Ha ha very funny Doc

Yeah high in the GOM not over the system nor the NW a Carib

Yeah dry air may be a problem but not that much
And if you look at the WV images the dry air ain't that much near the system nor over Yucatan or BOC Dry air is much however in and near Florida exception to S and SE Florida and the NE GOM

I think postTD9/94L may be able to miss the front
And I don't think the front will come down as far as some believe


I had a lot of respect for you when i join WU but this year you have become very stubborn in the blog and every post you make is hard to take seriously when we all know is extremely BIAS similar to others here. Sometimes is best to not say anything and just watch what is going to happen.
Please don't take this the wrong way.
Quoting 21. Abacosurf:


Quoting 15. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 hasn't given up on 94L...and being forecast so near term I wouldn't be surprised if extreme South Florida didn't get some wild weather today & this evening..


Looks accurate. There seems to be a low stuck at the top of Florida bay.
Coastal Waters - S.E. Florida/Upper Keys

NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.GULF STREAM HAZARDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET TODAY BUILDING UP TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
I agree with you wunder...It just seems like the Doc never really looks at the maps..You are refreshing and remind me of when I was a young guy who expressed his thoughts in the weather office, I was a Met.Tech for 14 years and now just watching and digesting this blog....


Quoting 22. Gearsts:

I had a lot of respect for you when i join WU but this year you have become very stubborn in the blog and every post you make is hard to take seriously when we all know is extremely BIAS similar to others here. Sometimes is best to not say anything and just watch what is going to happen.
Please don't take this the wrong way.
90A:



The models seem to have shifted significantly in the 00z runs. The Euro has it going further south into Yemen/Oman, the GFS has it riding up the coast of Oman and then curving back out to sea and hitting Pakistan and the GEM has it skimming Oman and curving into Pakistan/India. It seems almost any country bordering the Arabian Sea could be affected at this time. Hopefully in the coming days the models will get a better hold on it. Looks like it'll be dangerous no matter who it hits!
Thanks Jeff...
12Z NAM takes the low just off the S.E. Florida coast and develops it into a 995mb Low just east of the Bahamas.
Shear from the front is overtaking 94L while the front continues to dig towards the SE. Absorption of 94L looking more probable already.





With the steering currents the way they are, it is doubtful the system in the Bahamas is moving west. I think it is just moving slowly east and the rotation is just pushing convection to the east as it expands. It is really very windy on the coast here and light rain is beginning.





Now is this had been further north, Florida and the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos could have received very high amounts of rain. Also, if I had been born smart instead of handsome, I wouldn't even be on here.
Quoting 30. kmanislander:

Shear from the front is overtaking 94L while the front continues to dig towards the SE. Absorption of 94L looking more probable already.






Sounds like good news - I do not mind a wet weekend (we actually need the rain) but I do NOT want it to be accompanied by a TS - nevertheless, I wiil continue to watch developments carefully. Right now, brilliant sunshine on the Brac although there are clouds all around us so I am sure that rain "soon come"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow 5-10kts of shear is some really high shear
Ha ha very funny Doc

Yeah high in the GOM not over the system nor the NW a Carib

Yeah dry air may be a problem but not that much
And if you look at the WV images the dry air ain't that much near the system nor over Yucatan or BOC Dry air is much however in and near Florida exception to S and SE Florida and the NE GOM

I think postTD9/94L may be able to miss the front
And I don't think the front will come down as far as some believe

You may certainly live in a fantasy world if you wish. In reality, 94L (there is no exTD9) is a tiny low just off Belize. The water vapor view clearly shows it being attacked on both north and south by large amounts of dry air. As for shear, you can see pieces of 94L being ripped off to the north and headed east. There's very little thunderstorm development over the low and pressures are rising, not falling. Given the front coming down, there's at least some chance that 94L may get pushed south to a landfall over Honduras. The greater chance is that 94L is too small and too weak to remain a tropical low and that it will be absorbed by the cold front, bringing more rain to Cuba and the Bahamas as part of the much more impressive non-tropical low already in place. If you want to say Dr. Masters is wrong in his analysis, at least bring some evidence to the table besides your personal opinion.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather1950:
I agree with you wunder...It just seems like the Doc never really looks at the maps..You are refreshing and remind me of when I was a young guy who expressed his thoughts in the weather office, I was a Met.Tech for 14 years and now just watching and digesting this blog....


Can you post the maps you think Dr. Masters overlooked when he wrote his blog? I'd like to get a better understanding of why his analysis has been so poor for the past 10 years I've been on the blog.
Meanwhile in the DC metro area I'm just waiting for SNOW. Winter weather can be very interesting here without being threatening.
Quoting 4. notmaxmayfield:

I verified the spin that I'm seeing on radar, looks to be just SE of Miami.

Anybody else see what I'm looking at?

It's a non tropical low attached to a front.

There's the two remaining lows that was expected..Should be interesting to see if the one near SFL gets away from that front.

Almost off the charts air pollution:

BeijingAir @BeijingAir · 27 minutes ago

10-25-2014 PM2.5; 381.0; 421; Hazardous
Almost off the charts air pollution:

BeijingAir @BeijingAir · 27 minutes ago

10-25-2014 PM2.5; 381.0; 421; Hazardous


while nothing compared to china....i hate this time of year...inversion drops the smog from juarez on top of us
Quoting 26. PalmBeachWeather1950:

I agree with you wunder...It just seems like the Doc never really looks at the maps..You are refreshing and remind me of when I was a young guy who expressed his thoughts in the weather office, I was a Met.Tech for 14 years and now just watching and digesting this blog....



My post wasn't against the Doc.
GOM water vapor shows a re-inforcing shot of dry air pushing down into the central GOM with dry air working its way down into the Yucatan.



Weekend postcard from Ex-Gonzalo, currently vacationing in Athens/Greece:


Source: Metar.gr More: SevereWeatherGreece

German wetterlonline.de recorded Gonzalo's travel route until today. Nice, eh?



Airmasses in Europe at noon today. Source.

Wonder whether I'll still be reporting Ex-Gonzalo's progress at Christmas, lol. And sorry guys.
Weekend postcard from Ex-Gonzalo, currently vacationing in Athens/Greece:

just a little bit of water
Quoting 31. Grothar:

With the steering currents the way they are.. Also, if I had been born smart instead of handsome, I wouldn't even be on here.


i Agree Completely!
Sar your in fantasy land

Link

We are getting drenched here just south of Miami. Are my eyes deceiving me or is the radar staring to look like its moving around a center?
Never mind. I just saw the comment below that its a non-tropical low attached to a front. Whew. We have 2.5 inches of rain just this morning and its still coming.

Quoting 46. turtlegirl9:

Link

We are getting drenched here just south of Miami. Are my eyes deceiving me or is the radar staring to look like its moving around a center?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Sar your in fantasy land

So that's your meteorological analysis of what I presented? That may be part of the reason you've been wrong about every single Caribbean storm you've been promoting this year then.
Quoting sar2401:
So that's your meteorological analysis of what I presented? That may be part of the reason you've been wrong about every single Caribbean storm you've been promoting this year then.

Umm no it is not

And I've not been wrong about every Carib storm
Quoting barbamz:
Weekend postcard from Ex-Gonzalo, currently vacationing in Athens/Greece:


Source: Metar.gr

German wetterlonline.de recorded Gonzalo's travel route until today. Nice, eh?



Airmasses in Europe at noon today. Source.

Wonder whether I'll still be reporting Ex-Gonzalo's progress at Christmas, lol. And sorry guys.
Pretty amazing stuff. I really never recall Europe being so badly affect by so many post-tropical storms as it has been this year. I suspect part of the reason is the strongest hurricanes never really developed until they got into high latitudes, so they were able to carry a lot more energy with them. Maybe we're at least approaching the time when you'll only be stuck with the normal gigantic North Atlantic storms for the rest of the year.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Umm no it is not

And I've not been wrong about every Carib storm
OK, I'm waiting for your reasoned analysis then, backed up by the list of Caribbean storms you've called correctly this year. The only Caribbean storm I recall was Dolly, and you had that going into the northeastern Caribbean even as it entered the BOC. Maybe there were others I've forgotten.
Quoting 47. turtlegirl9:

Never mind. I just saw the comment below that its a non-tropical low attached to a front. Whew. We have 2.5 inches of rain just this morning and its still coming.


If you were parked just about 200 miles north of where you are right now, you'd be amazed at the difference in the atmosphere. In Central Florida we have dewpoints in the low 50s today and the sky is crystal clear. This feels like a winter season airmass, not a tropical season airmass; almost no discernible humidity, bone dry, a fresh northerly breeze, etc.

The tropical season is winding down now for Florida and the rest of the Continental United States. It happens every year and is perfectly normal. Extreme SE Florida is holding out in the last tiny little corner of warm, humid and rainy atmosphere, at the moment. But that too will change soon.
Quoting 49. sar2401:

So that's your meteorological analysis of what I presented? That may be part of the reason you've been wrong about every single Caribbean storm you've been promoting this year then.


He hasn't been wrong with all, just 99.9% since he has every cloud turn it a hurricane and bounce back and forth between the cayman islands and stormtracker scotts house
Quoting 51. sar2401:

Maybe we're at least approaching the time when you'll only be stuck with the normal gigantic North Atlantic storms for the rest of the year.


Thanks Sar for the good wishes. You're always so caring, lol :-P

Interesting:
Mistral winds
BBC weather video, 23 October 2014 Last updated at 17:06
As the remnants of hurricane Gonzalo move across Europe and high pressure builds behind it leaves a classic set up for a mistral wind to develop. BBC Weather's Helen Willetts explains.

Good summary until yesterday:
Gonzalo's remnants batter Europe
BBC weather video, 23 October 2014 Last updated at 17:10
Ex-Hurricane Gonzalo packed a punch as it reached Europe with strong winds and heavy rain. The storm surge along the German coastline saw cars submerged in flood water while high winds brought down trees in Belgium. BBC Weather's Helen Willetts reports for Global on BBC World.

Anyway
Keeping an eye on that front
12Z charts had the front tail end dipping into N Yucatan down to about 20N by the looks of it 15Z charts show that tail end is now gone and new tail end just touching the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan down about 21N/21.5N
Hopefully the low will pull out of the area and let Miami get in on this great weather across the rest of the state.

Peak wind gust 28mph at 12:00pm in Miami.
NHC just bumped up The Tropical outlook for 94 L (5 Day) to 20%.... is something going to happen with 94L???
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
Oh yeah and NHC bumps up postTD9/94L% on TWO
Oh yeah and NHC no longer see any interaction (absorption or merging) with the cold front

Oh why am I not surprised
Quoting 61. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah and NHC no longer see any interaction (absorption or merging) with the cold front

Oh why am I not surprised
The 5 days chance at 20%?
3 day radar estimate for South Florida.

Some areas of the lower Keys have received over 7" and in the upper Keys over 6" of rain.


Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully the low will pull out of the area and let Miami get in on this great weather across the rest of the state.

Peak wind gust 28mph at 12:00pm in Miami.
The weather here in Orlando has been beautiful and about as tranquil as it gets.  We could use some rain though.  Looks like we're going for 10 years without a FL hurricane strike.

Quoting 32. SSideBrac:

Sounds like good news - I do not mind a wet weekend (we actually need the rain) but I do NOT want it to be accompanied by a TS - nevertheless, I wiil continue to watch developments carefully. Right now, brilliant sunshine on the Brac although there are clouds all around us so I am sure that rain "soon come"


Rain is always good :-)

The front could push 94L either farther SE where it could survive to fight another day, shunt it off to the ENE or absorb it and spin up a new low on the tail end depending on how far it digs. Talk about options LOL.
94L is just NE of Belieze near 18.8N and 87.2W. Movement this morning had a jog NE as it feels the developing nontropical low developing near Key Largo but in general is moving E and will continue this path for the next 24-36hrs. The problem 94L will have is the sinking air in the NW caribbean. There will be moisture though in the lower and upper levels, especially south of Jamaica. 94L has about a 30% chance of coming back. Pressures will rise in the NW caribbean from high pressure to the north and 94L moving east. Once the ridge over the SE US moves out into the Atlantic by Monday... 94L will then move wnw to nw towards the Yucitan. Question people want to know, will it develop again? If 94L can maintain its structure and move a bit more east to near Jamaica by Sunday, then it may have alittle better chance before the move west under the ridge to the north. More moisture and less subsidance will be over the central caribbean. Again, in all, I give it about a 30% chance as of right now.
So officially 9 years since not only the last Florida hurricane but the last major strike on the US. While Florida might still be a legitimate target until 30 November (just don't affect Jacksonville that day!) it's likely it'll push to almost 10 years, or almost 19 years for NC.




Quoting kmanislander:


Rain is always good :-)

The front could push 94L either farther SE where it could survive to fight another day, shunt it off to the ENE or absorb it and spin up a new low on the tail end depending on how far it digs. Talk about options LOL.

NHC no longer see interaction with the front
Quoting 65. kmanislander:



Rain is always good :-)

The front could push 94L either farther SE where it could survive to fight another day, shunt it off to the ENE or absorb it and spin up a new low on the tail end depending on how far it digs. Talk about options LOL.
Certainly lots of options and judging by "octopus" Models which essentially cover almost 270 degrees of the Compass, the options are being kept wide open :-). I wish I could use such a huge risk possibility/potential in some of my work - it would make it very much easier as I would be unlikely to ever be wrong!!
Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:


NHC no longer see interaction with the front


by saturday-sat night it won't see it anymore
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

INVEST 94L
Quoting 54. scottsvb:



He hasn't been wrong with all, just 99.9% since he has every cloud turn it a hurricane and bounce back and forth between the cayman islands and stormtracker scotts house


Geeze, when I call them out I get flagged and reported:)
Quoting 69. SSideBrac:

Certainly lots of options and judging by "octopus" Models which essentially cover almost 270 degrees of the Compass, the options are being kept wide open :-). I wish I could use such a huge risk possibility/potential in some of my work - it would make it very much easier as I would be unlikely to ever be wrong!!


LOL !!

Absolutely, that is what happens this time of year in the tropics. No one really knows what may happen.

if I had to hang my hat on one or two scenarios I would lean towards the front catching 94L and then spitting out a new low in a couple of days, assuming it stalls across the NW Caribbean with the tail end at least down to Honduras. My next best option would be that the flow ahead of the front shunts 94L ahead of it, leaving it alone close to the Cayman area and perhaps just South or SW of here once the fronts stalls out.

In either case there could be a low around the NW Caribbean for several days.
Quoting 48. Skyepony:




Lets hope so. The Bufo Toads were just knocking on my patio door!
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL !!

Absolutely, that is what happens this time of year in the tropics. No one really knows what may happen.

if I had to hang my hat on one or two scenarios I would lean towards the front catching 94L and then spitting out a new low in a couple of days, assuming it stalls across the NW Caribbean with the tail end at least down to Honduras. My next best option would be that the flow ahead of the front shunts 94L ahead of it, leaving it alone close to the Cayman area and perhaps just South or SW of here once the fronts stalls out.

In either case there could be a low around the NW Caribbean for several days.


Well from past TWO and now
Seems NHC does not think the front will interact with it
Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:


NHC no longer see interaction with the front


Each TWO stands on its own. I would not cast the future on one TWO as the position stated in each only lasts until the next update. The progression of the front relative to what 94L is doing will determine what the NHC says about the interaction of both later on, if any.
Anyway key thing to do at this point is to watch it on Satelite and belize radar

INVEST 94L NOT looking good at all right now
Quoting 61. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah and NHC no longer see any interaction (absorption or merging) with the cold front

Oh why am I not surprised

Because you want a storm to hit you.
well mine is....


Quoting 40. Gearsts:

My post wasn't against the Doc.
INVEST 94L NOT looking good at all right now



nope...nor is the interaction with cuba going to do it any good...and all the time shear will be increasing unless it can somehow head south
well mine is....


what maps is he missing?
Hey WKC... if the front does not pick up 94L,it will meander in the NW caribbean. Wind shear is going to pick up in the next 24 hours. The only Hail Mary 94L has is to dive ESE. It is currently moving ENE. NHC is being generous giving it 20% in the 5 day. IMO
If you're right WKC, I'll fly to the Caymans and buy you a beer. Sorry, but pretty sure you're wrong here. I'd have to say that conditions aren't at all conducive to development, but hold on to whatever sliver of hope you have, if you want.






I haven't posted much lately because it's been beautiful outside and have been enjoying it.....and working. Off to work. Have a great day all.
94L looks to be moving more NE.
Conditon in the Cayman Islands.


Humidity:
80%

Dew Point:
76.3F

Barometer:
1010.00 mb

Baro Trend:
Now - Steady
Quoting 72. luvtogolf:



Geeze, when I call them out I get flagged and reported:)


Whenever he posts (kid), we should all just flag them all! ha
Quoting 45. wunderkidcayman:

Sar your in fantasy land




You sure you aren't?
Good night with an off topic postcard screenshot from Iceland - taken one hour ago. Although bad autumn weather and fog won't let you watch the fissure eruption in the east of the island at Bardarbunga very often, the guy keeps on spewing relentlessly and is annoying the Icelanders with poisonous air, ongoing earthquakes and still the threat of a major glacier flood. Nevertheless it's beautiful.



And - doh - the lava already covers Manhattan, as this headline from Iceland claimed two days ago, lol:

New Video, Lava Covers Two Thirds of Manhattan
By Eyglo Svala Arnarsdottir
October 22, 2014 09:25Updated: October 22, 2014 09:25

Nice summary site to monitor the volcano.
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:

Low must be moving away from Belize.
Baro Trend:
Rising Rapidly


Interesting. Lets hope it interacts and gets the heck out of the Caribbean before it can do much else. When they creep southward, I always get nervous. Last thing we need is to give this thing a chance.
Moving ENE at 8kts. 18z Best Track.

At 1800 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.0°N and 87°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 65 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

Sorry I made a mistake earlier. I was looking at the wrong page.

These are the current conditions in Belize as reported by Wunderground.

Belize, BH (Airport)

Updated: 1:00 PM CST on October 24, 2014


84 °F
Light Showers Rain

Heat Index:
96 °F

Humidity:
84%

Dew Point:
79 °F

Wind:
9 mph from the NW


Pressure:
29.82 in (Falling)

Visibility:
5.0 miles

UV:
7 out of 16

Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft

(Above Ground Level)
Elevation:
16 ft

Quoting 79. hurricanes2018:




GIANT OCTUPUS ALERT!!!
94L = unsignificant.

CATL wave = huge. Will bring heavy rains (possibly more) to the Eastern Caribbean by the middle of next week. Stay tuned xD

Interesting news story,

"An employee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been arrested by the FBI, accused of — on numerous occasions in May 2012 — accessing and downloading information from the National Inventory of Dams (NID). That database contains guarded information about thousands of dams in the United States — including potential causalities in the wake of a dam failure."

"Xiafen “Sherry” Chen, 59, of Wilmington, Ohio was taken into custody, by the FBI, at her workplace — the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, Ohio. Chen was employed as a hydrologist at the office."

Link
http://i.imgur.com/zk0Rh8o.png
Quoting 97. CaribBoy:

94L = unsignificant.

CATL wave = huge. Will bring heavy rains (possibly more) to the Eastern Caribbean by the middle of next week. Stay tuned xD




From San Juan NWS.

IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY...A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE.
Looks like its going into November's tracks early.......................................



wind shear went up on the east coast all in red
Just a rainmaker......................................... .............................................
Quoting 99. Grothar:

http://i.imgur.com/zk0Rh8o.png


It's hooked on the Yucatan
Quoting 98. Doppler22:

Interesting news story,

"An employee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been arrested by the FBI, accused of — on numerous occasions in May 2012 — accessing and downloading information from the National Inventory of Dams (NID). That database contains guarded information about thousands of dams in the United States — including potential causalities in the wake of a dam failure."

"Xiafen “Sherry” Chen, 59, of Wilmington, Ohio was taken into custody, by the FBI, at her workplace — the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, Ohio. Chen was employed as a hydrologist at the office."

Link
good they caught her.
Any chance this could hit South Florida? :)

Quoting 90. Articuno:



You sure you aren't?
Fantasyland? Don't mind if I do!
Quoting 92. barbamz:

Good night with an off topic postcard screenshot from Iceland - taken one hour ago. Although bad autumn weather and fog won't let you watch the fissure eruption in the east of the island at Bardarbunga very often, the guy keeps on spewing relentlessly and is annoying the Icelanders with poisonous air, ongoing earthquakes and still the threat of a major glacier flood. Nevertheless it's beautiful.



And - doh - the lava already covers Manhattan, as this headline from Iceland claimed two days ago, lol:

New Video, Lava Covers Two Thirds of Manhattan
By Eyglo Svala Arnarsdottir
October 22, 2014 09:25Updated: October 22, 2014 09:25

Nice summary site to monitor the volcano.


Impressive video of the lava flow. It is the first time I have seen video of a shield volcano spreading those vast expanses of lava - quite a difference from the Pacific Rim action we are used to seeing.
List of Winter storm names....
Oct .24, 2014 1:40 pm ET
Northeast |
- The nor'easter will be long gone and much better weather conditions can be expected this weekend.
- A few showers are possible around the eastern Great Lakes, however.
- Saturday highs will range from the upper 40s over parts of northern New England to near 70 in the Baltimore-Washington area.
Quoting 106. Grothar:

Any chance this could hit South Florida? :)


If Southern Mexico has a city named South Florida then: YES! :{)
South | starting to warm up soon!!
- Rain moves out of southern Florida tonight and the entire region will enjoy dry conditions Saturday.
- Temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year west of the Mississippi River, especially from the southern Plains to parts of Texas and western Arkansas.
- Some record highs are possible from the southern Plains to Texas.
- The Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex could reach the low 90s.
- Highs mainly in the 70 across the Southeast, with some low 80s across southern Florida.
- Sunday will also be dry across the region
- Highs in the 70s across the Southeast Sunday.
Quoting 106. Grothar:

Any chance this could hit South Florida? :)




Playing with your Etch A Sketch again I see.
A micro mid level spin spotted near 19.5N 96 W Not low level

Broad Low level seems to be further S still elongated NE-SW

High shear in the GOM low shear still in the NW Carib

Vort data shows more of a split between the Cuba/S Fl low and low near belize
Off tropical topic but of weather interest. The DC metro area, especially the northeast half, got about a factor of five more rain than was forecast tuesday night through wednesday afternoon. We expected about 0.3" or so and many locations got 1.5" or more in this region. My home in College Park/Riverdale got 1.9" in the gage.

A fairly narrow band of moderate but steady for many hours rain, set up along the I/95 corridor. Near Baltimore this was preceded by heavy convection but all I saw was a lot of impressive lightning to my north. I didn't get the convection.

The causing system was well forecast many days out, a synoptic scale cutoff low, but the rain band was not.
Quoting 101. LargoFl:

Looks like its going into November's tracks early.......................................
I am throwing out my hurricane supplies till next year. You want them?
Quoting 106. Grothar:

Any chance this could hit South Florida? :)




I think this low has had too much tequila in Mexico it is wobbling every which way but not pointed towards South Florida
I Wouldn't worry about the model runs or spaghetti models yet. Too far out...lets just Wait and See cause these spaghetti models are on drugs a lot of the time lol
Quoting 117. rmbjoe1954:



I think this low has had too much tequila in Mexico it is wobbling every which way but not pointed towards South Florida


Always look for my little smiley :)
94L is getting the old "shear squeeze" from the advancing front from the NW and the offset anticyclone that is situated to its SE, both imparting South Westerly shear over the system. Not much room in between.



Strong ridging across the eastern half of the U.S. and the GOM next weekend (Nov 1 - Nov 2).

Quoting 117. rmbjoe1954:



I think this low has had too much tequila in Mexico it is wobbling every which way but not pointed towards South Florida


I say put a fork in this season and lets move onto Winter. Never seen the models change on a system as they did a couple of days ago. With El-Nino entering the picture FL should have a lot of interesting weather once mid November comes around but until then expect fairly dry weather but this is typical before the El-Nino rains begin to settle in across FL so enjoy the dry weather now as rainy weather is just a few more weeks away.
Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



I say put a fork in this season and lets move onto Winter. Never seen the models change on a system as they did a couple of days ago. With El-Nino entering the picture FL should have a lot of interesting weather once mid November comes around but until then expect fairly dry weather but this is typical before the El-Nino rains begin to settle in across FL so enjoy the dry weather now as rainy weather is just a few more weeks away.
Hello Scott..I do not think its over. I am betting on two more.
Also pretty nice system near the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
It should get the Great Lakes surfers out hittng the swells before Winter sets in.
Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



I say put a fork in this season and lets move onto Winter. Never seen the models change on a system as they did a couple of days ago. With El-Nino entering the picture FL should have a lot of interesting weather once mid November comes around but until then expect fairly dry weather but this is typical before the El-Nino rains begin to settle in across FL so enjoy the dry weather now as rainy weather is just a few more weeks away.

I had bet we would have had 10 named storms for 2014. That's lots of eggs on my face
Lol
Quoting 119. Grothar:



Always look for my little smiley :)

8-(
This weekend will be enjoying perfect weather here in Port St.Lucie FL. Highs near 80 and DRY
8-)
129. 882MB
Quoting 97. CaribBoy:

94L = unsignificant.

CATL wave = huge. Will bring heavy rains (possibly more) to the Eastern Caribbean by the middle of next week. Stay tuned xD




Very well said my friend, this is the wave I have been watching all week. I see the CMC and NAVGEM do some sort of development with it, the rest, bring a very robust Tropical wave through here by the end of next week,. Who knows probably 95L in a couple of days, but sure does look loaded with moisture, too much shear, but if you look at similarities looks a lot like ex-Gonzalo when it was in the CATL sheared apart by Fay, if you look closely it has some spin, I'm just happy its going to bring more rains :)
Impressive video shots of that hotel lobby in Odile. A little surprising though that they seemed to have been caught by surprise. I would have thought that there would be some warning from the sound of the approaching eyewall.
Quoting 130. BayFog:

Impressive video shots of that hotel lobby in Odile. A little surprising though that they seemed to have been caught by surprise. I would have thought that there would be some warning from the sound of the approaching eyewall.
Some very lucky persons to have seemingly escaped injury! Cannot tell exactly what happened to doors/windows but it almost looks as though even the frames were blown out - in which case wonder what the "Code" is down there?? There again , i could be wrong :-)
Hmm I was looking at the fronts from 12Z to 18Z
The tail end has not moved much it's on the NE tip of Yucatan
The E side has come down a bit into cuba and S coastal areas of Cuba

18z NAM takes 94L into Central America in 57 hours.
Quoting Doppler22:
Interesting news story,

"An employee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been arrested by the FBI, accused of — on numerous occasions in May 2012 — accessing and downloading information from the National Inventory of Dams (NID). That database contains guarded information about thousands of dams in the United States — including potential causalities in the wake of a dam failure."

"Xiafen “Sherry” Chen, 59, of Wilmington, Ohio was taken into custody, by the FBI, at her workplace — the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, Ohio. Chen was employed as a hydrologist at the office."

Link

I don't quite understand this article. Anyone can access the NID by requesting a username and password. All you have to do is prove you have some need to know the data. When I was a consultant for PG&E, I was responsible for the dam safety database for all our dams and had complete access to the NID and uploaded and downloaded data. The only thing I couldn't do was download the data without additional clearance, which wasn't that hard to get. It's not like this data is top secret - there must tens of thousands of users. I guess she got caught because she was downloading without authorization. Without going into details, there were ways to do that, and I can see why an NWS hydrologist might do this. There must be something more to this story and this woman.


something spinning at east of FL!!


SOMETHING TO WATCH!!
Looks like Ana wants to become a hurricane again.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I say put a fork in this season and lets move onto Winter. Never seen the models change on a system as they did a couple of days ago. With El-Nino entering the picture FL should have a lot of interesting weather once mid November comes around but until then expect fairly dry weather but this is typical before the El-Nino rains begin to settle in across FL so enjoy the dry weather now as rainy weather is just a few more weeks away.
Two days ago you were shouting about a major hurricane headed toward Tampa because the GFS said so. Turns out the GFS was wrong, as it has been many times this season. That's why the NHC wasn't all bent out of shape about 93L. However, now you're going to stick a fork in the season based on...what? There's still over a month to go, and even a 384 hour model isn't going to give you any kind of reliable data to make such a statement. You've gone from major hurricanes to a dead season several times recently. Maybe waiting until November 30 makes more sense.
Finally clearing here in S Dade County. Looking forward to great weekend weather!
Quoting hurricanes2018:


something spinning at east of FL!!

Non tropical low associated with the cold front
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL !!

Absolutely, that is what happens this time of year in the tropics. No one really knows what may happen.

if I had to hang my hat on one or two scenarios I would lean towards the front catching 94L and then spitting out a new low in a couple of days, assuming it stalls across the NW Caribbean with the tail end at least down to Honduras. My next best option would be that the flow ahead of the front shunts 94L ahead of it, leaving it alone close to the Cayman area and perhaps just South or SW of here once the fronts stalls out.

In either case there could be a low around the NW Caribbean for several days.
That's a pretty reasonable summary. I'd add that 94L also has a chance to make landfall in Honduras and meander around land for a few days before coming back out into the Caribbean, perhaps with less hostile conditions. The one thing it needs to do to survive is start generating some deep convection near the center. It hasn't been able to that even when it was in the BOC. The increasing dry air makes that even less likely, although it may have a better chance to hold together over the jungle than it does over the water. Strange little low so far.
Quoting capeflorida:
Finally clearing here in S Dade County. Looking forward to great weekend weather!
It has been gorgeous weather up here in SE AL, with highs in the 70's and lows in the low to mid-40's. I actually had to turn the furnace on again, something unthinkable a week ago. The air is very dry, however, and there's no chance for rain at least over the next five days. We desperately need some rain. I'll happily join in wishcasting any kind of tropical low if it has even a remote chance of getting to Alabama. :-)
Quoting 142. sar2401:

It has been gorgeous weather up here in SE AL, with highs in the 70's and lows in the low to mid-40's. I actually had to turn the furnace on again, something unthinkable a week ago. The air is very dry, however, and there's no chance for rain at least over the next five days. We desperately need some rain. I'll happily join in wishcasting any kind of tropical low if it has even a remote chance of getting to Alabama. :-)


I'll trade you the the last 3 days of your temps for my last three days of rain. Deal?
What a messy looking system...

Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



I say put a fork in this season and lets move onto Winter. Never seen the models change on a system as they did a couple of days ago. With El-Nino entering the picture FL should have a lot of interesting weather once mid November comes around but until then expect fairly dry weather but this is typical before the El-Nino rains begin to settle in across FL so enjoy the dry weather now as rainy weather is just a few more weeks away.


I'm pretty sure you said something similar before, then we had Gonzalo. Don't say things like that Scott, you might just wake up the Atlantic again lol!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm I was looking at the fronts from 12Z to 18Z
The tail end has not moved much it's on the NE tip of Yucatan
The E side has come down a bit into cuba and S coastal areas of Cuba

Did you read the Offshore Waters Forecast?

Synopsis for the Caribbean Sea & Tropical North Atlantic from 7°N to 22°N

AMZ001-250300-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS LATE SAT. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN JAMIACA AND HONDURAS LATE
SAT...THEN MOVE W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN THROUGH TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS SAT AND SUN...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON.


The lows that are there (including 94L) and analyzed to be present are going to be west moving. and it's likely several areas of low pressure will end up wandering around either inland or over the GOH. The important bit is that last sentence. A wave already developing east of the Windwards is the one that may make it into the E. Caribbean by Mon or Tuesday. It will be far enough south not to be affected by the dry air and shear that's going to make 94L a non-player. This wave is one I think has possibilities. It is late October, and these kinds of waves are much more likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the eastern Caribbean than 94L. That's the one I'd hang about 30% of my hat on right now.

Everyone in the SE enjoy the beautiful weather for us this weekend. Good but busy day for me today; a) my oldest daughter just got her first job in Atlanta (after graduating from Yale this past May); b) Wife getting a new car (wiping out my recent raise), and c) my Wife's grant project was funded. Proud Dad and Happy Husband today.

Now, if they will only let me fish a little bit next weekend (along with some chump change for gas and lures) when the winds die down, it will have been a good October.

We will soon turn our eyes to the Noreaster's and severe Winter Weather for Conus as the Atlantic Season winds down. Everyone stay safe and particularly our friends in the NE that have been pounded by the storm up there:

Quoting capeflorida:


I'll trade you the the last 3 days of your temps for my last three days of rain. Deal?
Deal! I'd even take a little flooding if I had to. We've had a whopping 0.33" for October and I have hose burns from dragging all of them around trying to keep the container plants alive. I've given up on everything else for now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a messy looking system...

It is, but at least the Publix is safe for the weekend...:0(
A long-duration X-Class (X3.0 so far) flare from area 2192 is currently underway. It remains to be seen whether there was an associated CME; if there was, it's in a good position to be at least partly directed toward earth:



X class solar flare in progress from sunspot 2192.



Edit- Nea beat me by a second there. I'll leave the x-ray chart up though since his comment is gonna get buried on the previous page.
I have my Dobsonian telescope pointed out the window towards the setting sun to the west right now and I didn't see anything (but I didn't expect to, observing only in visual instead of H-Alpha). I will say that AR 2192 has grown since I observed it two days ago, however and is offset from center of sun's disk.
Quoting 128. rmbjoe1954:

This weekend will be enjoying perfect weather here in Port St.Lucie FL. Highs near 80 and DRY
8-)


windy... can't go outside
Looks like the flare is leveling off at X3.
Quoting 153. indianrivguy:



windy... can't go outside
Quoting 153. indianrivguy:

But it's really nice for a change. It will warm up again later the week.
Yowza:

Kalamata, Greece at one point today had rain falling at 11 in/hr with winds up to 65mph from Ex-Ganzalo.
Quoting 157. Skyepony:

Kalamata, Greece at one point today had rain falling at 11 in/hr with winds up to 65mph from Ex-Ganzalo.


Wow! Hope it didn't damage their olives, love those things
Quoting 144. GeoffreyWPB:

What a messy looking system...




That's "murky" Geoff!


Does this mean it is going to meander for a few days. :)

Quoting 158. capeflorida:



Wow! Hope it didn't damage their olives, love those things

It's damaged alot. The pics here are crazy and match up pretty well with the scene here.

Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Yowza:




Cool picture of the Death Star.
Quoting 157. Skyepony:

Kalamata, Greece at one point today had rain falling at 11 in/hr with winds up to 65mph from Ex-Ganzalo.
amazing amount of rain there..bet flash flooding all around the area
Quoting 153. indianrivguy:



windy... can't go outside
Nice cool breeze here on the gulf coast.
Looks to peak at X3 lets await the CME forecast now
Quoting 161. Naga5000:



Cool picture of the Death Star.
Quoting 161. Naga5000:



Cool picture of the Death Star.


this may shock some of our Canadian friends........................................... ......................
a question on solar flares.....can one coming to earth damage our electronic devices?
1859 Carrington Event is all I can say Largo

Quoting 168. LargoFl:

a question on solar flares.....can one coming to earth damage our electronic devices?
Quoting 169. Grothar:


models really don't know huh Gro where its going to go.
Are you really taking ex-9L serious???? I prefer watch Ana becoming a hurricane again.
Quoting 170. AdamWilson27:

1859 Carrington Event is all I can say Largo


I think I remember something said long ago about having to unplug everything...haven't heard that again in many years.
Quoting 168. LargoFl:

a question on solar flares.....can one coming to earth damage our electronic devices?


The flare itself? Nope. The subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME)? Yup. An extreme example of this would be the Solar storm of 1859, which was the result of an >X45 solar flare and resulting CME that produced auroras as far south as Cuba. The solar storm caused systems all over the US and Europe to fail and even game some operators electric shocks. If a event similar to this happened today it's estimated it could cause up to $600 billion to $2.6 trillion dollars in damages just to the United States.
Quoting 167. LargoFl:

this may shock some of our Canadian friends........................................... ......................


Tight cluster too.

These “solar storms” bombard the solar system – and Earth – with radiation and magnetic shock waves that can wreak havoc on magnetic fields, power systems, and electronics devices. The Earth’s atmosphere shields us from much of the radiation, but solar storms can still do quite a bit of damage, including:

Short out satellites and take down GPS, cell phone, Internet, and TV services.
Cause damage to electronic devices and computers.
Disrupt the power grid resulting in overloads, widespread power outages, and dangerous power surges.
Increase corrosion and breakage of gas and fuel pipelines.
Confuse compasses and electromagnetic gadgets.
Cause light displays (like the “northern lights”) in the sky.
Knock out communications, including radio, military communications, and early warning systems.
Quoting 174. CybrTeddy:



The flare itself? Nope. The subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME)? Yup. An extreme example of this would be the Solar storm of 1859, which was the result of an >X45 solar flare and resulting CME that produced auroras as far south as Cuba. The solar storm caused systems all over the US and Europe to fail and even game some operators electric shocks.


What's a CME???

Quoting 175. Grothar:



Tight cluster too.


I hope that area in Canada isn't too populated along the coast
Quoting 177. Grothar:



What's a CME???


geez
Quoting 171. LargoFl:

models really don't know huh Gro where its going to go.


As most of the reports last week, a majority had it meandering there for a while until something moved it.
Quoting 165. CybrTeddy:






Noooooooooooo!
Quoting Naga5000:


Noooooooooooo!


Quoting CybrTeddy:


The flare itself? Nope. The subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME)? Yup. An extreme example of this would be the Solar storm of 1859, which was the result of an >X45 solar flare and resulting CME that produced auroras as far south as Cuba. The solar storm caused systems all over the US and Europe to fail and even game some operators electric shocks. If a event similar to this happened today it's estimated it could cause up to $600 billion to $2.6 trillion dollars in damages just to the United States.
Kind of strange so far. Most of these flares affect HF radios, the low portion of the radio bands, from about 100 KHz to 70 MHz. They can either produce conditions that greatly increase long distance contacts on the amateur bands or knock out propagation altogether. So far, there's been almost no effect on propagation. You're right about CME damage. Basically, almost any kind of solid state device can be fried by one big enough, which means anything from the computer in your car to things like compact fluorescent bulbs. I have one old tube type transceiver (called boat anchors by hams) because tube radios will not be affected by a large CME and I'll still be able to talk to other hams with similar equipment. Your smartphone could very easily become pretty dumb. :-)

Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin!
Quoting 175. Grothar:



Tight cluster too.




Somebody wake the big fish Orca...
Or we can take bets on how soon he shows up here...
Quoting 184. stormpetrol:

Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin!

Uh Oh!
Quoting 184. stormpetrol:

Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin!


1007.9 now on my station
1008.1 at the airport

When last did you calibrate ??
Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Yowza:



Kinda reminds me of that Destroying Angel scene in The Prince of Egypt.


Most of the rain missing us so far.
Quoting 189. Saltydogbwi1:



Most of the rain missing us so far.



Wont last though. Drizzling in South Sound
Analysing further postTD9/4L has become rather lopsided NE-SW

LLC still down near 18N 86W
Mid level circulation NE of that or N-NNE

Looking at the shear it makes sense

Now looking at the front tail end still in NE Yucatan E side still moving through Cuba and N NW Carib

I think it may just be possible that the front pushes the low ESEward I know some people have been talking about that possibility

Quoting 191. kmanislander:



Wont last though. Drizzling in South Sound


Slowly working its way towards us.
Quoting 193. Saltydogbwi1:



Slowly working its way towards us.


Looks that way. Some thunder outside recently.
Quoting 187. kmanislander:



1007.9 now on my station
When last did you calibrate ??

Kman...what do you think of this 94L?
You said it's best to look in 6-12 hour intervals, which I think is smart.
I value your opinion and experience.
What would be looking for in the next 6-12 hours?
.
.
PS...no comment on the calibrate question here btw.
Quoting kmanislander:


1007.9 now on my station
1008.1 at the airport

When last did you calibrate ??


008.5mb here in WB and steady
But I think it's falling really slowly
Because it's been going down then steady down and again steady hr by hr
Quoting stormpetrol:
Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin!
The front is pulling that non-tropical low closer to you, so I imagine that's the reason for the falling pressure. There's a decent chance that the low will end up between the Caymans and Cuba before the front finally stalls out. How are your winds so far? It looks like a pretty good pressure gradient is setting up. I really don't remember a cold front this strong making such a deep penetration into the Caribbean in October. January maybe, but not October. The dry air to the north of the front is pretty impressive as well. We had a high of 82 today. Now that the sun is setting, the wind has fallen to calm and the temperature is already down to 64 after a low 42 this morning. We may get our first low since March in the 30's tonight.

Quoting 196. wunderkidcayman:



008.5mb here in WB and steady
But I think it's falling really slowly
Because it's been going down then steady down and again steady hr by hr


1006.1 at my station but I have not calibrated and its a cheap system so I would not rely on it too much lol
Quoting sar2401:
The front is pulling that non-tropical low closer to you, so I imagine that's the reason for the falling pressure. There's a decent chance that the low will end up between the Caymans and Cuba before the front finally stalls out. How are your winds so far? It looks like a pretty good pressure gradient is setting up. I really don't remember a cold front this strong making such a deep penetration into the Caribbean in October. January maybe, but not October. The dry air to the north of the front is pretty impressive as well. We had a high of 82 today. Now that the sun is setting, the wind has fallen to calm and the temperature is already down to 64 after a low 42 this morning. We may get our first low since March in the 30's tonight.



I doubt it
I can't recall ever seeing a time that a low associated with a front ever go that far S as your implying

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


1006.1 at my station but I have not calibrated and its a cheap system so I would not rely on it too much lol


What are you using
Quoting 195. CosmicEvents:


Kman...what do you think of this 94L?
You said it's best to look in 6-12 hour intervals, which I think is smart.
I value your opinion and experience.
What would be looking for in the next 6-12 hours?


I don't think much will change overnight. The vort max is not impressive being tied into the more intense feature near Florida and the system is caught between the advancing front from the NW and an anticyclone just offshore near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. if the front continues to advance to the SE 94L will be inclined to move off to the ENE or NE ahead of the SW flow aloft in the short term.

I would expect unsettled weather in the NW Caribbean in the next 12 hours but nothing dramatic. The environment is not conducive for any development currently.
Quoting kmanislander:


1007.9 now on my station
1008.1 at the airport

When last did you calibrate ??

Regarding the downward trend, I checked the pressures at a buoy south of the Cayman Islands and the atmospheric tide has been in its downwards phase the last few hours.
if ya axe me, then the season is over
Quoting 201. bappit:


Regarding the downward trend, I checked the pressures at a buoy south of the Cayman Islands and the atmospheric tide has been in its downwards phase the last few hours.



Last reading from that buoy was 1008 mbs about 1.5 hours ago
New TWO nothing has changed
Buoy South of us looks pretty diurnal to me

Just checked again pressure in west bay back up to 1009.1MB
I am out for now. Will check in later briefly
one of the names on the list of winter storms is Ganon.
*begins doing lots of snow in the winter dance*
Thunder powers- ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!
Quoting 199. wunderkidcayman:



I doubt it
I can't recall ever seeing a time that a low associated with a front ever go that far S as your implying



What are you using


a cheap Lacross unit that's about 2 years old wind and rain gauges no longer work. I will be getting a Davis Vantage Pro 2 for next hurricane season. I will be moving to Crystal Harbour where I should be able to get pretty good wind readings it's always windy where the house is being constructed.
Ana's eye clearing out nicely:





The JTWC have also issued a tropical cyclone formation warning for 90A:





Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a cheap Lacross unit that's about 2 years old wind and rain gauges no longer work. I will be getting a Davis Vantage Pro 2 for next hurricane season. I will be moving to Crystal Harbour where I should be able to get pretty good wind readings it's always windy where the house is being constructed.


Hmm I have the more expensive La Cross

Plus a direct link to the Met office station
Just had one hell of a storm
Thick heavy downpour visablity not great
Strong gusty winds
Quoting 208. 62901IL:

one of the names on the list of winter storms is Ganon.
*begins doing lots of snow in the winter dance*
Thunder powers- ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!
where do you live...
Quoting 211. Grothar:





What's the story with the top picture?
Quoting kmanislander:
Buoy South of us looks pretty diurnal to me


That's the atmospheric tide. Have to take it into account when trying to determine the pressure trend.
Nasty weather here in Cayman!
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a cheap Lacross unit that's about 2 years old wind and rain gauges no longer work. I will be getting a Davis Vantage Pro 2 for next hurricane season. I will be moving to Crystal Harbour where I should be able to get pretty good wind readings it's always windy where the house is being constructed.
I used to have a Davis Vantage Pro until almost all the sensors quit after about four years of use. I have never been impressed with the quality of Davis weather stations either for construction or accuracy for the money you have to pay. I'm using the Acurite 01035 now, and it's powering my PWS listed here as well as being on my website using the free and very simple USB connection and software you get with the unit. It's much better than any LaCrosse unit, but almost anything is better than LaCrosse, even Oregon Scientific. My Acurite has been up for about two years with no problem except for the fact birds like building their nests in the rain gauge well, so I had to put a wire screen over the well. You can get one on Amazon for about $125. You can buy four of them for one Vantage Pro, and I assure you four Acurite units will last longer than one Davis. :-)
Quoting 214. wunderkidcayman:

Just had one hell of a storm
Thick heavy downpour visablity not great
Strong gusty winds



How much rain xD?
Link
Quoting 220. CaribBoy:



How much rain xD?
http://www.brucesbythesea.com/wx.htm
Quoting 216. nygiants:


What's the story with the top picture?


Just a large wave expected to bring heavy showers to the islands in a few days.


Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

Quoting 177. Grothar:



What's a CME???


Is that gro grinning by the door??
Quoting 222. Grothar:



Just a large wave expected to
Quoting 224. Grothar:




Whacha lookin' at?
Quoting 226. Grothar:




looks like it could be a threat to Karachi, according to the GFS
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin! big doom
Quoting 230. hurricanes2018:

Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin! big doom


lol
""
""

Comparing these two images looking at Sat you would think we are getting tons of rain. We had a decent band go through then light stuff.
Quoting 227. ElConando:



Reruns of Matlock.
Quoting 228. nwobilderburg:



looks like it could be a threat to Karachi, according to the GFS



Quoting 222. Grothar:



Just a large wave expected to bring heavy showers to the islands in a few days.

I that what people are talking about possibly being 95L (NHC said it will come into Caribbean Monday; potentially our next system)
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Pressure down to 1006mb in Cayman and slowly fallin! big doom


Umm no

1011mb in West Bay (NW part of Grand Cayman)
1010mb in South Sound (basically South part of Grand Cayman)
1009mb in George Town (the Capital SW part of Grand Cayman)
237. DDR
Big time rains forecasted over the windward islands,seems to have started yesterday and 4-6 inches for the coming week,nice!
Nice rain and breeze, really enjoying it, I doubt it will be anything but a nice cool down! Really welcomed!
239. DDR
13.5 inches so far this October in Trinidad,with a good few flood days inbetween and the rainy seasons just getting cranked up again for the second peak next month.
Quoting 236. wunderkidcayman:



Umm no

1011mb in West Bay (NW part of Grand Cayman)
1010mb in South Sound (basically South part of Grand Cayman)
1009mb in George Town (the Capital SW part of Grand Cayman)



I was just going by weatherincayman.com when i wrote that, of course some will always try and make a joke of everything, I like a sense of humor, but you know sometimes certain people overdo it and make a real fool of themselves!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Nice rain and breeze, really enjoying it, I doubt it will be anything but a nice cool down! Really welcomed!

You never know might become something
It is slow tonight. I know it's Friday, but you all can't have dates. I mean, come on, after all, I've seen some of your pictures.
Quoting 234. Grothar:







yeah its weird.... THe NAVGEM and Euro show this as a big Oman threat, but others show it going towards Oman, but curving to Pakistan/India
Quoting stormpetrol:


I was just going by weatherincayman.com when i wrote that, of course some will always try and make a joke of everything, I like a sense of humor, but you know sometimes certain people overdo it and make a real fool of themselves!


Yep I know a few of those here
Quoting 241. wunderkidcayman:


You never know might become something

Oh I'm not letting my guard down, as I see the actual low has moved around 17.5N/85 W or ESE, Not where IT IS actually Pegged on Sat Imagery!
Ana is a hurricane once again.

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE STRUCTURE OF ANA HAS IMPROVED TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYE AROUND 2200 UTC. THIS MAY BE ANA/S BEST EYE THROUGH ITS LIFE
CYCLE THUS FAR. EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED INTACT. DVORAK FIXES CAME IN
WITH 65 KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...WITH CONSTRAINTS BROKEN BY ALL
THREE. GIVEN THIS EYE DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN A
ONE-IMAGE TRANSIENT FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KT.

ANA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...MOVING AT 040/20 KT
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
GROUPED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN POSITIONS.
THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH THE 48 THROUGH 96 HOUR POINTS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WHICH USED A BLEND OF THE
UKMET...GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK NEAR ANA...THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION BUT HOLDS ANA AT A MINIMAL HURRICANE LEVEL OF 65 KT
FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS DURING WHICH TIME ANA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 31.0N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 33.1N 165.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 36.7N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 40.9N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 45.2N 144.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 49.4N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 51.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
Since 1850 the record for the longest interval between major hurricane landfalls in the USA is 3,315 days from August 11, 1860 to September 8, 1869.

The latest major hurricane to make landfall in the USA is October 25, 1921 (Tampa Bay).

The record for longest interval between major hurricane landfalls will be tied on November 21, and broken on November 22 unless a major hits before then. Which will break the record for the latest major hurricane to make landfall in the USA.

No matter what happens, a record will fall!
Just got back from dinner. Big light show from lightning while sitting outside. Solid rain for the past two hours. Really nice !
Quoting 243. nwobilderburg:



yeah its weird.... THe NAVGEM and Euro show this as a big Oman threat, but others show it going towards Oman, but curving to Pakistan/India


Like this?

Quoting 249. stormpetrol:






Status quo. Weak vort max and offset anticyclone still in place. 94L very disorganized.
Rainy night :-). Wonderful.

Evening everybody....

Still pretty active in my area, though as I expected the action tonight is over the central Bahamas...



Looks like the Caymans are getting it good tonight, too. Between these two lows the WCar, Cuba and The Bahamas have gotten some profitable moisture.

The rain here was never really torrential at any time, but rather moderate and constant overnight and rather more sporadic during the day today. By about 2 p.m. many local roadways were flooded, but after that the rain held up. By 5 p.m. much of the flooding had run off or soaked in.

I expect we'll see at least one more round of showers in the NW before all's said and done, but it seems the worst of it is done.
Quoting 211. Grothar:




img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://i.imgur.com/1KZWwWn.jpg">
Yikes! That's pretty expansive for late Oct in the MDR.... what are you thinking about this once it gets into the Car, Gro?
Quoting 242. Grothar:

It is slow tonight. I know it's Friday, but you all can't have dates. I mean, come on, after all, I've seen some of your pictures.
Sorry Gro.... this kinda rainy wx makes me sleepy.... so I followed your example and took a nap.... ;o)
Quoting 253. kmanislander:

Rainy night :-). Wonderful.




Just came from town there is a boat that is tied up to the shore that was sinking out on its mooring. Now its being beaten to crap instead. I don't think there will be anything left of it in the morning. Putting a vid together and will upload shortly.
The bulb burning brightest before it burns out

Quoting 255. BahaHurican:

Yikes! That's pretty expansive for late Oct in the MDR.... what are you thinking about this once it gets into the Car, Gro?


I haven't really looked that closely to the conditions out there, but the shear seems to be very high. It is odd to see that large of a convection there this time of year. I guess we'll have to watch it, too.
Nite everyone. Stay dry.

Quoting 254. BahaHurican:

Evening everybody....

Still pretty active in my area, though as I expected the action tonight is over the central Bahamas...



Looks like the Caymans are getting it good tonight, too. Between these two lows the WCar, Cuba and The Bahamas have gotten some profitable moisture.

The rain here was never really torrential at any time, but rather moderate and constant overnight and rather more sporadic during the day today. By about 2 p.m. many local roadways were flooded, but after that the rain held up. By 5 p.m. much of the flooding had run off or soaked in.

I expect we'll see at least one more round of showers in the NW before all's said and done, but it seems the worst of it is done.
Hi Baha. My end of the island has received 1.45" in the past 4 hours. Local weather link in East End showing pressure @ 1003 mb. Don't know how accurate it is though.
Quoting 259. Grothar:



I haven't really looked that closely to the conditions out there, but the shear seems to be very high. It is odd to see that large of a convection there this time of year. I guess we'll have to watch it, too.
This year has been odd all around, IMO, in terms of things being where they should be. It's not like it's common for a storm to get its energy from the EPac, spin up in the GoM, and end up in the BoH, where it may then hitch a ride up the eastern seaboard of the US. That it's even possible this year suggests how off track things have been in the ATL all season. I'm not even surprised, in a way, to see so much activity still out there, despite the fact that it's practically November, when the MDR is usually closed for business....
Most of the convection associated with ex 09L/94L is not directly associated with the diffuse surface trough. Even if the shear abates, this thing will not likely develop.

Quoting 208. 62901IL:

one of the names on the list of winter storms is Ganon.
*begins doing lots of snow in the winter dance*
Thunder powers- ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!
I'm not sure how Ganon and thunder relate, but okay.
Quoting 261. stormwatcherCI:

Hi Baha. My end of the island has received 1.45" in the past 4 hours. Local weather link in East End showing pressure @ 1003 mb. Don't know how accurate it is though.
Hey, CI.... sat imagery suggests you guys are getting a good dousing right now .... lol ... up this end it's actually cooled off quite a bit, partially because it's been overcast for the last couple days, and partially because the air mass behind the front is rather cooler and drier than we've had for a while.... first signs of winter? or last blast of the tropics? [shrugs]
Quoting 263. KoritheMan:

Most of the convection associated with ex 09L/94L is not directly associated with the diffuse surface trough. Even if the shear abates, this thing will not likely develop.

Hey, Kori. I had more hope for 94L last night. This morning I looked at the WV loops.... tonight the circulation is barely perceivable. Kinda sad... I was hoping despite all we would get a wimpy Hanna from this. [shrugs] I haven't lost all hope, but I don't feel that excited about it anymore...
The heavy rains have certainly been hard on sewage treatment.

Environment Pollution in USA on Friday, 24 October, 2014 at 05:59 (05:59 AM) UTC.
Description
The second raw sewage leak announced in as many weeks poured 36,000 gallons of untreated wastewater into a Baltimore stream Thursday, the city's Department of Public Works said. The overflow ran into Maidens Choice Run, a tributary of the Gwynns Falls near the 800 block of Unetta Ave., the department said. The leak, attributed to this week's heavy rain, was confirmed at about 2 p.m. and took three hours to stop. Last week, the department announced it took eight days to repair a broken sewer pipe that dribbled 17,553 gallons of wastewater into the Gwynns Falls in West Baltimore last month. The department did not say why the pollution took so long to stop or why it did not disclose the leak to the public until two weeks after the leak was fixed. In both occasions, the department said it filed sewage overflow notices with the state Department of the Environment and the city Health Department as required. Signs are permanently posted along stream banks of the Gwynns Falls, and the public is advised to avoid contact with urban streams due to pollution concerns, the DPW said.

Quoting 267. BahaHurican:

Hey, Kori. I had more hope for 94L last night. This morning I looked at the WV loops.... tonight the circulation is barely perceivable. Kinda sad... I was hoping despite all we would get a wimpy Hanna from this. [shrugs] I haven't lost all hope, but I don't feel that excited about it anymore...
I was illogically hoping for another Juan (1985) off the Louisiana coast. It can happen!


Quoting 269. KoritheMan:


I was illogically hoping for another Juan (1985) off the Louisiana coast. It can happen!



I admit I didn't expect much of 09L as a GoM storm, mainly because it didn't have enough time to organize before the front dragged it off. The WV this a.m. showed a reinforcing trough that ensured whatever happens to ex-09L, it's unlikely to sit in the BoH and fester, which is pretty much what it would have had to do to spin up over the next 2+ days. With the low/trough passing through here now, at least we got the rain, if not very much wind.
I know I am going to take some criticism and heat from this, but why all of a sudden does a ridge decide to build in off the East Coast of FL. thus blocking any sort of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean from moving north into the GOM, yet when Cristobal was coming from the East there so happen to be a timely trough there to recurve it away. I tell you guys on here we have been so so very lucky here in the US recently you don't even know, it's almost stupid ridiculous how lucky we have been. And please don't bring up Sandy she wasn't even purely tropical upon landfall. The last real tropical and damaging hurricane was Ike, 6 years ago and the last major hurricane was Wilma, 9 years ago. Count your blessings because one day will come when all of this luck runs out. I don't know when that will happen, probably more sooner than later in reality, but I fear it will be to some populated city that is seeing big time urbanization. I'll give you an example Tampa Bay is one of them and I am sure there are many other areas along the coastline.

Quoting 270. BahaHurican:

I admit I didn't expect much of 09L as a GoM storm, mainly because it didn't have enough time to organize before the front dragged it off. The WV this a.m. showed a reinforcing trough that ensured whatever happens to ex-09L, it's unlikely to sit in the BoH and fester, which is pretty much what it would have had to do to spin up over the next 2 days. With the low/trough passing through here now, at least we got the rain, if not very much wind.


The front isn't an amplified longwave so it's probably gonna get left behind anyway. Having said that, it'll probably be one of those systems that never really organizes despite an improving upper-level environment. The circulation is simply too diffuse, with most of the shower activity occurring along a southwest-to-northeast line along the aforementioned trough and associated cold front, not directly associated with the surface trough itself.
In ref to an actual event, what is the consensus for hurricane Ana?? Incase you didn't know, she is cat 1 again.
Quoting 271. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know I am going to take some criticism and heat from this, but why all of a sudden does a ridge decide to build in off the East Coast of FL. thus blocking any sort of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean from moving north into the GOM, yet when Cristobal was coming from the East there so happen to be a timely trough there to recurve it away. I tell you guys on here we have been so so very lucky here in the US recently you don't even know, it's almost stupid ridiculous how lucky we have been. And please don't bring up Sandy she wasn't even purely tropical upon landfall. The last real tropical and damaging hurricane was Ike, 6 years ago and the last major hurricane was Wilma, 9 years ago. Count your blessings because one day will come when all of this luck runs out. I don't know when that will happen, probably more sooner than later in reality, but I fear it will be to some populated city that is seeing big time urbanization. I'll give you an example Tampa Bay is one of them and I am sure there are many other areas along the coastline.




The ridge wouldn't prevent a north movement into the Gulf of Mexico, at least if the axis is situated according to that image.
Quoting 252. Grothar:




What is that eel chewing on ?
Quoting 273. RuBRNded:

In ref to an actual event, what is the consensus for hurricane Ana?? Incase you didn't know, she is cat 1 again.


Doom for New Orleans.

Don't question me, dammit! It's completely sensible!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Oh I'm not letting my guard down, as I see the actual low has moved around 17.5N/85 W or ESE, Not where IT IS actually Pegged on Sat Imagery!


Yeah OMG that near where I have it (0.5N+) 18N 85W

Looking on new charts Vort is reintensifying centered at around that same location upper level anticyclone slightly offset ESE a of the center looking at the steering flow should be moving E-ESE



Quoting 277. KoritheMan:



Doom for New Orleans.

Don't question me, dammit! It's completely sensible!
weather.
Could be if the energy heads that way with severe Most of the severe in the south originates from here.
Mid-Atlantic
Quoting 279. RuBRNded:

weather.
Could be if the energy heads that way with severe Most of the severe in the south originates from here.


My satirical BS aside, it's likely to alter the jet stream and help to focus an anomalous trough over the western US. We'll have to see if that heralds severe weather in areas farther east next week. My guess is probably not because of ongoing northwesterly flow across the United States promoting dryness.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Baha. My end of the island has received 1.45" in the past 4 hours. Local weather link in East End showing pressure @ 1003 mb. Don't know how accurate it is though.

I really can't see how you are getting such low pressure when on this side of the island we are getting anything from 1009mb-1014mb
I disagree, no change to the jet, amplified though.
Quoting 275. KoritheMan:



The ridge wouldn't prevent a north movement into the Gulf of Mexico, at least if the axis is situated according to that image.
But my point still stands, Donnie alluded to the major hurricane drought on the US. if we don't get one this year with time running out, then we would break the record which was set back in 1860-1869. Anyways, I guess records are meant to be broken as we saw with the 2005 AHS. Now to figure out what is causing this. My first speculation would be climate change, but that is too broad and general, my next one would be the Arctic Sea Ice Melt causing a Greenland blocking pattern and troughiness in the summer time stuck over the East Coast, the other one would be a change in the oscillation patterns. For some reason if that were the case places like Japan would be seeing less Typhoons since the oscillation patterns are a global thing.

Kori, you don't know how bad I want to figure out what is going on with the AHS there is a lot of speculation out there, but no definitive answer.
Also Caleb, residual troughs between the continental east coast ridge and the Bermuda-Azores ridge are quite normal. Taking Lili and Gustav as examples, both storms tried to move northwest and exit the Caribbean due to a trough in that same area, the latitude just prevented them from doing so. Cristobal would have definitely hit the Gulf Coast if it didn't stay completely out of the Caribbean. It was avoided because the center relocated under the eastern portion of the tropical wave, which was about a degree or two higher in latitude than the southern extension where we originally thought it would consolidate.
Quoting 283. RuBRNded:

I disagree, no change to the jet, amplified though.


Amplification occurs due to changes in the jet stream, dude. How do you think longwave ridge/trough orientation begins?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB02-2014
5:30 AM IST October 25 2014
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and lays centered near 12.5N 61.5E, about 1400 km west southwest of Mumbai and 940 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially west northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast during next 72 hours.

It would intensify into a deep depression within next 24 hrs and may intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours
Quoting 284. GTstormChaserCaleb:

But my point still stands, Donnie alluded to the major hurricane drought on the US. if we don't get one this year with time running out, then we would break the record which was set back in 1860-1869. Anyways, I guess records are meant to be broken as we saw with the 2005 AHS. Now to figure out what is causing this. My first speculation would be climate change, but that is too broad and general, my next one would be the Arctic Sea Ice Melt causing a Greenland blocking pattern and troughiness in the summer time stuck over the East Coast, the other one would be a change in the oscillation patterns. For some reason if that were the case places like Japan would be seeing less Typhoons since the oscillation patterns are a global thing.


I don't believe there's been an increase in troughing outside of long-term climatology, especially not attributable to climate change.

Also, you should've saw the post I made on Facebook three weeks or so ago showing the 500 mb pressure configuration over the US actually differing significantly from the 2009-2013 mean. The pattern this year was very favorable for US landfalls, especially with systems staying south of about 17N west of 60W.
There was flooding, landslides and structural damage across Tobago. Grenada had severe flooding as well. All the flooding was brought on by a tropical wave that passed through the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 282. wunderkidcayman:


I really can't see how you are getting such low pressure when on this side of the island we are getting anything from 1009mb-1014mb

Some people don't calibrate as frequently as others.
There still might be brief development from 94L before the system in the EPAC shears it off. Once again the EPAC looks to steal the show.

Quoting 271. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know I am going to take some criticism and heat from this, but why all of a sudden does a ridge decide to build in off the East Coast of FL. thus blocking any sort of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean from moving north into the GOM, yet when Cristobal was coming from the East there so happen to be a timely trough there to recurve it away. I tell you guys on here we have been so so very lucky here in the US recently you don't even know, it's almost stupid ridiculous how lucky we have been. And please don't bring up Sandy she wasn't even purely tropical upon landfall. The last real tropical and damaging hurricane was Ike, 6 years ago and the last major hurricane was Wilma, 9 years ago. Count your blessings because one day will come when all of this luck runs out. I don't know when that will happen, probably more sooner than later in reality, but I fear it will be to some populated city that is seeing big time urbanization. I'll give you an example Tampa Bay is one of them and I am sure there are many other areas along the coastline.




why does everyone forget Irene. It was a pretty boring storm, but it caused 16 billion in damage.
Quoting 288. KoritheMan:



I don't believe there's been an increase in troughing outside of long-term climatology, especially not attributable to climate change.

Also, you should've saw the post I made on Facebook three weeks or so ago showing the 500 mb pressure configuration over the US actually differing significantly from the 2009-2013 mean. The pattern this year was very favorable for US landfalls, especially with systems staying south of about 17N west of 60W.
Maybe we are in transitioning to that pattern, I did remember saying last season that 2013 was the transition year, we'll see next year. I still hold firm to my Solar Sunspot theory that years that end in a 5 produce active seasons.
Here is the video of the boat getting beat up here in cayman tonight. The engine compartments and the port side pontoon were pretty full when this video was taken. Link
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Here is the video of the boat getting beat up here in cayman tonight. The engine compartments and the port side pontoon were pretty full when this video was taken. Link
Did the owner actually have the boat tied to that utility pole on shore? Looks like a couple of basic failures in Mooring 101. :-)
Quoting 292. nwobilderburg:



why does everyone forget Irene. It was a pretty boring storm, but it caused 16 billion in damage.
Irene wasn't a major hurricane upon landfall in North Carolina. Most of the damage that occurred was due to excess rainfall that resulted in inland flooding up and down the East Coast. There was wind damage that uprooted trees, but that was caused by the aforementioned rainfall. In addition, the 16 billion in damages includes the islands of the Bahamas severely ravaged by Irene, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Turks and Caicos.
Quoting 295. sar2401:

Did the owner actually have the boat tied to that utility pole on shore? Looks like a couple of basic failures in Mooring 101. :-)


It was tied on a mooring offshore but when it started sinking they brought it into this small cove and tried to secure it. The waves were winning the fight though. The port side pontoon was flooded along with both engine compartments.
Healthy, robust, MDR storms have been what's lacking a lot. The pattern is either going to shift to most storms forming in the MDR, or it will be just one that really steals the show. (ex. Andrew)
Quoting Skyepony:
Mid-Atlantic
This is part of the wave I alluded to earlier today. While we're all diddling around with a drifting low north, this one is going to sneak into the eastern Caribbean Monday and may be the one that ends up causing real trouble.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


It was tied on a mooring offshore but when it started sinking they brought it into this small cove and tried to secure it. The waves were winning the fight though. The port side pontoon was flooded along with both engine compartments.

Where exactly in GT was this
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


It was tied on a mooring offshore but when it started sinking they brought it into this small cove and tried to secure it. The waves were winning the fight though. The port side pontoon was flooded along with both engine compartments.
Maybe you already posted this but how did the hull get holed? Did it break loose from its dock mooring, drag her anchor, or what?
Quoting 298. opal92nwf:

Healthy, robust, MDR storms have largely been what's lacking. The pattern is either going to shift to most storms forming in the MDR, or it will be just one that really steals the show. (ex. Andrew)


Although climate change's effects are still pretty ambiguous, one thing I'm pretty confident in saying is that, in general, tropical cyclone activity should become more common in the subtropics since the mid-latitudes/polar regions warm faster. This would promote sinking air in the MDR.

Not sure if what we've seen the last few years validates my hypothesis as of now though, since these blips are still well within the realm of statistical probability.
I've exhausted putting so much of my mental energy into preparing for the exact opposite of what the pattern has largely been the past several years.

It's funny, usually I check everything everyday, but not so much anymore; just cause of the weariness. Ironically, it may turn out that when the big one comes, I'll hear about it only from word of mouth or on a major news station after it's already a significant storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The front isn't an amplified longwave so it's probably gonna get left behind anyway. Having said that, it'll probably be one of those systems that never really organizes despite an improving upper-level environment. The circulation is simply too diffuse, with most of the shower activity occurring along a southwest-to-northeast line along the aforementioned trough and associated cold front, not directly associated with the surface trough itself.
Tropical cyclones also tend not to do well when they're getting shoved around by an honest to goodness cold front, not the weak fronts we usually see this time of year that only make it to mid-Gulf. This is more like January, and one reason why we don't get many hurricanes in January. :-)
Quoting opal92nwf:
I've exhausted putting so much of my mental energy into preparing for the exact opposite of what the pattern has largely been the past several years.

It's funny, usually I check everything everyday, but not so much anymore; just cause of the weariness. Ironically, it may turn out that when the big one comes, I'll hear about it only from word of mouth or on a major news station after it's already a significant storm.
You mean about checking the weather each day, not your supplies,, correct? I think it seems worse to people on the Gulf Coast because we just haven't had anything close to a storm for years now. The season itself really hasn't been bad. Yeah, some of the hurricanes have been ugly, but Arthur was quite a start for the season. Gonzalo may end up being the last storm of the season, but it has been quite a storm as well. I think what makes people weary is all the invests that get hyped here only to fade away in a couple of days. I think it's something like only 20% of what start as an invest in the MDR even turn into a TD so, really, we shouldn't have high expectations of most of them. Looking at 10 model runs hour after hour that show them blowing up into majors when there's not even a low yet is what I object to, so I've just decided to stop reading those and look for something else interesting in the weather. I just assume that 80% of the models and attendant narration about why this is the Big One are bull and move on. I'll know in plenty of time if something is really going to develop, but not out at 384 hours.
Quoting 301. sar2401:

Maybe you already posted this but how did the hull get holed? Did it break loose from its dock mooring, drag her anchor, or what?


I don't know but the initial issue could have been faulty bilge pumps or an engine hose broke or something. When it was out on its mooring. They managed to get it into shore there but that's rocky bottom and ironshore. So with the swell lifting her and slamming her onto the bottom I am sure there are more holes contributing to the initial problem.
Quoting 300. wunderkidcayman:


Where exactly in GT was this


By Arthur's little store just south of Burger King WKC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. This
system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the trough
meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


I don't know but the initial issue could have been faulty bilge pumps or an engine hose broke or something. When it was out on its mooring. They managed to get it into shore there but that's rocky bottom and ironshore. So with the swell lifting her and slamming her onto the bottom I am sure there are more holes contributing to the initial problem.
Yeah, too bad they couldn't have found a nice shallow, sandy beach, but I know those are hard to come by there. I hope they have good insurance. It looks like a total loss by morning.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


By Arthur's little store just south of Burger King WKC

Oh ok I know exactly where now

Why the hell they didn't seek safe harbour like all the other boat

Earlier during the day I saw boats like traffic on the road passing by in my backyard near Colbalt Coast heading into safe harbour
New TWO no change still 10/20%
If this Low can hang in there till Monday, then we may hv a chance of SOMETHING Developing. Trough Should Dissipate by then.
Quoting nygiants:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. This
system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the trough
meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven



Which, strangely enough, is exactly the same as 12 hours ago. Even putting the TWO in bold isn't helping 94L :-)

Oops, left out the one salient detail. You'll notice the current TWO has dropped any mention of it moving eastward now, so meandering will be a word we'll see more of in the next couple of days.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
Quoting nygiants:
If this Low can hang in there till Monday, then we may hv a chance of SOMETHING Developing. Trough Should Dissipate by then.

I say earlier than Monday
I've always wondered what the correct pronunciation of Avila is.

Is it... "uh-VEE-luh", or is it "AV-uh-luh", or is it none of the above?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I've always wondered what the correct pronunciation of Avila is.

Is it... "uh-VEE-luh", or is it "AV-uh-luh", or is it none of the above?
I've always assumed that choice number one was right since I worked with a guy named Avila and it was "uh-VEE-luh" for him. He's apparently of Cuban descent, and that would be the preferred Spanish pronunciation. Might be an interesting late night e-mail question for him though, since boredom must be predominant at the NHC tonight. I'm kind of missing those cage matches between Avila and Stewart when there was a real storm to talk about. :-)

Quoting 303. opal92nwf:

I've exhausted putting so much of my mental energy into preparing for the exact opposite of what the pattern has largely been the past several years.

It's funny, usually I check everything everyday, but not so much anymore; just cause of the weariness. Ironically, it may turn out that when the big one comes, I'll hear about it only from word of mouth or on a major news station after it's already a significant storm.
This is my feeling precisely.  The weather has been mostly boring for many years!  But when it finally is exciting, I will be here to appreciate it.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say earlier than Monday


The NCEP thinks the stationary front will still be there Monday, although the non-tropical low should finally be dissipating over the far southern Bahamas. Check out the "real" low about to hit Newfoundland though. A 988 mb storm in the Caribbean would be creating a bit more excitement than 94L.

Time for new fantasy model runs!

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE STRUCTURE OF ANA HAS IMPROVED TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYE AROUND 2200 UTC. THIS MAY BE ANA/S BEST EYE THROUGH ITS LIFE
CYCLE THUS FAR. EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED INTACT. DVORAK FIXES CAME IN
WITH 65 KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...WITH CONSTRAINTS BROKEN BY ALL
THREE. GIVEN THIS EYE DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN A
ONE-IMAGE TRANSIENT FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KT.

ANA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST..

So Ana is a hurricane again, and we're up to Discussion number 46. What's the record for tropical storm discussion bulletins? For that matter, has Ana set any other records yet?
Quoting 315. KoritheMan:

I've always wondered what the correct pronunciation of Avila is.

Is it... "uh-VEE-luh", or is it "AV-uh-luh", or is it none of the above?


None of the above. It's Ah-vee-lah.
Quoting 320. BayFog:

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE STRUCTURE OF ANA HAS IMPROVED TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYE AROUND 2200 UTC. THIS MAY BE ANA/S BEST EYE THROUGH ITS LIFE
CYCLE THUS FAR. EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED INTACT. DVORAK FIXES CAME IN
WITH 65 KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...WITH CONSTRAINTS BROKEN BY ALL
THREE. GIVEN THIS EYE DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN A
ONE-IMAGE TRANSIENT FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KT.

ANA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST..

So Ana is a hurricane again, and we're up to Discussion number 46. What's the record for tropical storm discussion bulletins? For that matter, has Ana set any other records yet?


Ivan (2004) had 87, Bertha (2008) had 70, and Nadine (2012) had 88(?).
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVING WNW
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 49W WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
S OF 14N ALONG 40W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE
HONDURAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TONIGHT INTO SUN.
ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY VARY
ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
THINKING OF THE LOW CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 17N81W ON SUN
ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE...THEN
THE LOW WILL MOVE W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 20-25 KT THEN SHIFTING TO OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE
NIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB02-2014
8:30 AM IST October 25 2014
================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 61.5E, about 1400 km west southwest of Mumbai and 940 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially west northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast during next 72 hours

It would intensify into a deep depression within next 24 hrs and may intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours.
Ginger in 1971 might have the record for the most discussions but the storm wallet scanning project has skipped 1971.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
854 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING....

.UPDATE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES JUST
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING IN BOTH OUTER WATER ZONES.

...THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR LAND
AREAS AS GREAT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH
60 MPH ON THE COAST IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE POST FRONTAL
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS. IN FACT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. THUS THERE IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS WITH STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO WHERE THE NATURAL CURVE OF THE COAST INCREASES WIND
SHEAR/SPIN. CONSIDERING STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE JUST AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER
LAND...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE...BUT AS USUAL NOT
VERY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY ON SATURDAY.

With the SSTs as much as 10 degrees warmer than normal, wouldn't be surprised.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVING WNW
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 49W WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
S OF 14N ALONG 40W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE
HONDURAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TONIGHT INTO SUN.
ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY VARY
ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
THINKING OF THE LOW CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 17N81W ON SUN
ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVE
R THE W SEMICIRCLE...THEN
THE LOW WILL MOVE W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 20-25 KT THEN SHIFTING TO OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE
NIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS.


I think it may be something along the lines of this but not really this

Quoting sar2401:


The NCEP thinks the stationary front will still be there Monday, although the non-tropical low should finally be dissipating over the far southern Bahamas. Check out the "real" low about to hit Newfoundland though. A 988 mb storm in the Caribbean would be creating a bit more excitement than 94L.



I don't think the front will be there by Sat late night
Good morning main blog...

Hurricane Ana
0Z Euro dumps 8" to 20" of snow from NE Georgia, Eastern TN, Western NC, and SW VA. That would be record breaking for early November. Just an FYI this model looks suspicious so I don't buy this run one bit atleast for now.

Quoting 319. DonnieBwkGA:

Time for new fantasy model runs!




No! No talking about snow before thanksgiving! After that you can talk about it all you want. :)
Quoting 292. nwobilderburg:



why does everyone forget Irene. It was a pretty boring storm, but it caused 16 billion in damage.


Most of it was inland flooding since she moved north into new England and those areas were already saturated.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. This
system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the trough
meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 319. DonnieBwkGA:

Time for new fantasy model runs!


SNOW!!!
305. sar2401 Looking at 10 model runs hour after hour that show them blowing up into majors when there's not even a low yet is what I object to,


In a way it was a good thing that some people over posted the 300 hour doom scenario models . Now it has sunken in (for me) that any model over 150 hours is far from set in stone and often completely wrong. Posting Tampa bay, NYC, or Miami hit by a cat4 in a model run when there isnt even depression says more about the poster than the weather.
Quoting 303. opal92nwf:

I've exhausted putting so much of my mental energy into preparing for the exact opposite of what the pattern has largely been the past several years.

It's funny, usually I check everything everyday, but not so much anymore; just cause of the weariness. Ironically, it may turn out that when the big one comes, I'll hear about it only from word of mouth or on a major news station after it's already a significant storm.


I know how you feel, especially when there was supposed to be severe weather in the stl metro. Most of the time this year, it was hype. There'd usually be early morning convection that'd kill instability and the clouds would be stubborn to clear up. Either that, or the warm front would be slow to lift north. The storms would sometimes fizzle out completely if they approached from the west. It's to the point where I have become rather complacent. However, it doesn't mean I don't keep an eye on the sky should the need arise, just not as much as I used to.
Quoting 333. hurricanes2018:

SNOW!!!


NO!!!
Fantasy Fest Forecast: From NWS Key West - no mas for me since 1995 with Cap Tony .... - take care all. livin in da Keys since 1991.

FORECAST - FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL RELAX
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS DUE TO THE LOW LIFTING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THE
MOST IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRIER AIR WILL HOWEVER FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
Quoting docrod:
Fantasy Fest Forecast: From NWS Key West - no mas for me since 1995 with Cap Tony .... - take care all. livin in da Keys since 1991.

FORECAST - FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL RELAX
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS DUE TO THE LOW LIFTING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THE
MOST IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRIER AIR WILL HOWEVER FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.


62 degrees here in Fort Myers. Another perfect day today with lots of sun and temps in the 80s.
Today S.E. Florida and the Key can get it on some of this Florida fall weather.

Hello over there with a little follow up to post #42 with ever lasting Ex-Gonzalo.

Here's an impressive video report of yesterday's havoc in Athens:


BBC, Published October 24, 2014
People in the Greek capital, Athens, are clearing up after a series of flash floods caused major disruption in parts of the city.
Torrential rain turned roads into rivers, sweeping away cars and uprooting trees.
There are no reports of any injuries but a number of homes and businesses were swamped with water.


Greece flooding, caused by slow-moving remnants of hurricane gonzalo, covers Athens streets
25 October 2014 | 11:54 | FOCUS News Agency

Today the storm causes more nuisance in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. Cloud top temperatures this morning:


Meanwhile in the Arabian Sea:


Click to enlarge.





Have a nice Saturday, everyone!
Quoting 339. barbamz:

Hello over there with a little follow up to post #42 with ever lasting Ex-Gonzalo.

Here's an impressive video report of yesterday's havoc in Athens:


BBC, Published October 24, 2014
People in the Greek capital, Athens, are clearing up after a series of flash floods caused major disruption in parts of the city.
Torrential rain turned roads into rivers, sweeping away cars and uprooting trees.
There are no reports of any injuries but a number of homes and businesses were swamped with water.


Greece flooding, caused by slow-moving remnants of hurricane gonzalo, covers Athens streets
25 October 2014 | 11:54 | FOCUS News Agency

Today the storm causes more nuisance in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. Cloud top temperatures this morning:


yes I could not believe yesterday..11 inches an hour wow
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while it meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
94 may well get pushed way down south by this cold front........................................
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while it meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Interesting windstorm development in the Norwegian Sea:



From Estofex Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 25 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sun 26 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Fri 24 Oct 2014 21:05, Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Scotland, the Norwegian coastline and the Norwegian Sea region mainly for severe convective wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for the Bosporus region mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS
Quiet conditions are found over most portions of central and eastern Europe but there are still two regions in Europe where severe weather is likely to occur: An upper cut-off low over W Turkey tends to dissipate while remaining stationary. At its northeastern flank, excessive convective and non-convective precipitation is expected.
The other region of interest is the northern Atlantic where a developing cyclone will affect Scotland and the Norwegian coast. Some instability in a region of strong background flow and intense vertical shear may enhance some wind gusts which will likely exceed the 25 m/s threshold even without convection. The situation is particularly dangerous and the chosen threat level does only reflect the contribution of convection!
We had a night of mostly heavy rain here in Cayman, looks like another round on the way shortly



I'm off to see how the 'Happy Hour' made out thru the night....
Tropics dull, IMBY dull.


Good thing for the iCyclone You Tubes.
Quoting barbamz:
Interesting windstorm development in the Norwegian Sea:



From Estofex Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 25 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sun 26 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Fri 24 Oct 2014 21:05, Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Scotland, the Norwegian coastline and the Norwegian Sea region mainly for severe convective wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for the Bosporus region mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS
Quiet conditions are found over most portions of central and eastern Europe but there are still two regions in Europe where severe weather is likely to occur: An upper cut-off low over W Turkey tends to dissipate while remaining stationary. At its northeastern flank, excessive convective and non-convective precipitation is expected.
The other region of interest is the northern Atlantic where a developing cyclone will affect Scotland and the Norwegian coast. Some instability in a region of strong background flow and intense vertical shear may enhance some wind gusts which will likely exceed the 25 m/s threshold even without convection. The situation is particularly dangerous and the chosen threat level does only reflect the contribution of convection!


Cold weather tornadoes/water spouts. I watched a show about them recently and it was pretty facinating.
Cold air blowing over relatively warm water can produce wide spread tornadoes/waterspouts even when the air temperatures are quite cold outside.
Great Lakes cold air associated waterspouts
its getting that time of the yr to give the designated "wishcaster of the yr" award. some of our fine characters are high upon the list. of all the wishcasters only one came to fruitation. carib boy who do you think deserves it?
Quoting 319. DonnieBwkGA:

Time for new fantasy model runs!


Yeah and I have as much a chsnce on winning the mega million jackpot.
Good morning

Well, it looks like the front gobbled up the remnants of 94L into one huge mass of unsettled weather across the NW Caribbean. One interesting feature is the anticyclone that has been stationary just offshore the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. Shear conditions are favourable there and if some of the energy from the combined front/94L drifts down into that area there is some potential for redevelopment in the short term.

For now its a wet and soggy weekend on tap. A new low will likely develop in any event from the frontal boundary as I previously posted about over the past two days.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Well, it looks like the front gobbled up the remnants of 94L into one huge mass of unsettled weather across the NW Caribbean. One interesting feature is the anticyclone that has been stationary just offshore the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. Shear conditions are favourable there and if some of the energy from the combined front/94L drifts down into that area there is some potential for redevelopment in the short term.

For now its a wet and soggy weekend on tap. A new low will likely develop in any event from the frontal boundary as I previously posted about over the past two days.



Actually front never gobbled up postTD9/94L at all
94L signature still very much there N of Honduras

Around 17N 84/83W generally speaking
Here watch it closely Link



Also as of 09Z/12Z tail end if front now stationary and dissipating from 84W and westward
And some forecast hint that by time we get to 18Z front from Cuba SEwards would have dissipated
Quoting 327. wunderkidcayman:



I think it may be something along the lines of this but not really this



I don't think the front will be there by Sat late night

im confused what are they saying will develop in the Caribbean?
Quoting 349. islander101010:

its getting that time of the yr to give the designated "wishcaster of the yr" award. some of our fine characters are high upon the list. of all the wishcasters only one came to fruitation. carib boy who do you think deserves it?

LOL

It's either me or WKC :-) 3rd best maybe be scott.
Quoting 352. wunderkidcayman:



Actually front never gobbled up postTD9/94L at all
94L signature still very much there N of Honduras

Around 17N 84/83W generally speaking
Here watch it closely Link



Also as of 09Z/12Z tail end if front now stationary and dissipating from 84W and westward
And some forecast hint that by time we get to 18Z front from Cuba SEwards would have dissipated


From the TWO

"A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front."

The two features are now intertwined
6" recorded here in Exuma over the past 3 days thanks to the moisture being sucked up from ex-td9/94L. My cisterns are getting quite full.
By the way I'm waiting for the CATL TWAVE... hopping it'll bring me tons of rain!!

Quoting 329. StormTrackerScott:

0Z Euro dumps 8" to 20" of snow from NE Georgia, Eastern TN, Western NC, and SW VA. That would be record breaking for early November. Just an FYI this model looks suspicious so I don't buy this run one bit atleast for now.


Thats a 500 MB height and anomaly chart, where are you getting snowfall acc..?

6" recorded here in Exuma over the past 3 days thanks to the moisture being sucked up from ex-td9/94L. My cisterns are getting quite full.



getting to be that time of year you want to make sure they're full
Quoting CaribBoy:

LOL

It's either me or WKC :-) 3rd best maybe be scott.

I'm not a wishcaster
Flagged
You can be one for the rest of you life
Don't drag me into it
Quoting kmanislander:


From the TWO

"A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front."

The two features are now intertwined


Both are interacting with each other but not intertwined
Quoting 361. wunderkidcayman:



Both are interacting with each other but not intertwined


Whatever
Quoting 328. MaxWeather:

Good morning main blog...

Hurricane Ana

If Ana hits B.C. as a tropical storm, there will be a lot of activity here.
Quoting 361. wunderkidcayman:



Both are interacting with each other but not intertwined
Too bad if I get banned but why do you persist in thinking you are the only one who is always right and know better than everyone else. I like to see you on here putting out your opinion but that is all it is. Your opinion. You wishing for it to develop and slam us won't make it happen.
Quoting kmanislander:


Whatever

Lol what's that's supposed to mean
Quoting 360. wunderkidcayman:


I'm not a wishcaster
Flagged
You can be one for the rest of you life
Don't drag me into it
Is ok to say yes.
Quoting 360. wunderkidcayman:


I'm not a wishcaster
Flagged
You can be one for the rest of you life
Don't drag me into it


Obviously you don't know the meaning of "joking" and being "cool". You can't be serious your whole life.
You flagged me, ok no problem if you can get self satisfaction when doing that... :-)
."interacting with each other but not intertwined

Both are "A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front


in this case.."associated" and "intertwined" have the same meaning
Quoting 365. wunderkidcayman:


Lol what's that's supposed to mean


Simply that they are both occupying the same geographical place, same atmosphere and share the same cloud mass.
As Shakespeare once said, much ado about nothing.
LOL

It's either me or WKC :-) 3rd best maybe be scott.



hmmmm...i think you might want to revisit your answer...there's a huge difference in wishcasting and just being plain wrong all the time LOL
This seems like a good time for a breakfast break :-)

back later
as·so·ci·at·ed
əˈsōsēˌātid,-SHē-/Submit
adjective
(of a person or thing) connected with something else.



in·ter·twine
ˌin(t)ərˈtwīn/
connect or link (two or more things) closely.

Quoting CaribBoy:


Obviously you don't know the meaning of "joking" and being "cool". You can't be serious your whole life.
You flagged me, ok no problem if you can get self satisfaction when doing that... :-)


Yes, yes you can
Some people die by one joke so yes

Quoting ricderr:
."interacting with each other but not intertwined

Both are "A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front


in this case.."associated" and "intertwined" have the same meaning


Umm no it does not

Quoting kmanislander:


Simply that they are both occupying the same geographical place, same atmosphere and share the same cloud mass.
As Shakespeare once said, much ado about nothing.


Really that came from Shakespeare

Quoting ricderr:
LOL

It's either me or WKC :-) 3rd best maybe be scott.



hmmmm...i think you might want to revisit your answer...there's a huge difference in wishcasting and just being plain wrong all the time LOL


Not plain wrong
Just sometimes wrong

It looks like the edge of the cold front and 94L are intertwined.

Quoting 358. hydrus:
Thats a 500 MB height and anomaly chart, where are you getting snowfall acc..?


Weatherbell. Euro just unleashes lots of snow across the southern Appalachians. i really don't buy this model though as it does go pretty robust with troughs in the long range only to flatten them out later.

Quoting 375. Grothar:

It looks like the edge of the cold front and 94L are intertwined.




It also looks like they are mingling!
I'm not sure if this link will work.

Link to a long visible Sat loop/movie of U.S, GOM, Central America.

Link
Then click on Medium Movie - great loop of the past weather system.
Quoting 359. ricderr:


6" recorded here in Exuma over the past 3 days thanks to the moisture being sucked up from ex-td9/94L. My cisterns are getting quite full.



getting to be that time of year you want to make sure they're full


definitely. It had been a very lean rainy season here before this month.
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like the edge of the cold front and 94L are intertwined.



The question is for you is where in 94L centered right now (as of 12Z) (Not using BEST track data)

I'll give you a hint look at the low level vort data and loop it that will help ya
That sunspot has become even more nasty looking, if that were possible.

Good lord JB in his video is saying that the east maybe in for lots of early season snow as most of the Euro ensembles agree and if this pans out then a shockingly cold air mass will move thru FL with highs in the 60's!
Quoting 309. sar2401:

Yeah, too bad they couldn't have found a nice shallow, sandy beach, but I know those are hard to come by there. I hope they have good insurance. It looks like a total loss by morning.


Haven't seen the boat wreck yet this morning, but I'm sure its bad based on the choice of beaching.

Insurance on boats down here can be a very tricky thing though; payout for something like this could potentially be based on whether this is a named storm or not. Then the usual items like negligence, vandalism, etc.
Quoting 377. capeflorida:



It also looks like they are mingling!
........Twins
If this is the pattern locking into a cold pattern for winter then here we go again as this sounds like 2013/2014 Winter all over.


let it snow
Quoting 354. CaribBoy:


LOL

It's either me or WKC :-) 3rd best maybe be scott.
I'd nominate Washi -- for non-tropical frozen precip wishcasting.
Quoting watercayman:


Haven't seen the boat wreck yet this morning, but I'm sure its bad based on the choice of beaching.

Insurance on boats down here can be a very tricky thing though; payout for something like this could potentially be based on whether this is a named storm or not. Then the usual items like negligence, vandalism, etc.


It's in GT near to burger king on the waterfront
invest 94L DRY AIR ON YOUR WAY!!!
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
I'd nominate Washi -- for non-tropical frozen precip wishcasting.

That funny lol
Quoting 391. wunderkidcayman:


That funny lol
Was is interesant ?
Quoting 387. hurricanes2018:


let it snow


GFS ensembles are locked in for the first week in November of shoving very cold air south even thru FL.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
invest 94L DRY AIR ON YOUR WAY!!!


Umm no na so much

Actually it doesn't look so bad
Thats the only thing I don't like about fall it's followed by winter!!
It appear its Hurricane Ana that unlocks the cold air and shoves it down across the eastern US and thru FL. If this happens then Freezes could occur even down to N FL. Again could is the key word as we all know models can flip flop but this looks like a pretty serious cold blast being protrayed by the Euro and 06Z GFS ensembles.
Quoting 351. kmanislander:

Good morning

Well, it looks like the front gobbled up the remnants of 94L into one huge mass of unsettled weather across the NW Caribbean. One interesting feature is the anticyclone that has been stationary just offshore the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. Shear conditions are favourable there and if some of the energy from the combined front/94L drifts down into that area there is some potential for redevelopment in the short term.

For now its a wet and soggy weekend on tap. A new low will likely develop in any event from the frontal boundary as I previously posted about over the past two days.


I am receiving a lot of rain, which is amazing, but flooding might be an issue if it doesn't stop soon.
Quoting 377. capeflorida:



It also looks like they are mingling!


lol
Yesterday I posted the ridging across the Eastern U.S. next weekend (Nov-1, Nov 2).

Map I posted yesterday

Even El Nino May Not Help California’s Drought

REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin


BY MARK KOBA,
CNBC
October 21, 2014
Every week, a government weather agency releases a report on the conditions of California's drought. And every week seems to bring grim news. The latest report is no exception. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that California's record-setting drought—heading into its fourth year—will likely persist or even intensify in large parts of the state.

"Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely," said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in releasing the analysis.

Related: Extreme California Drought Pays Off for Some

"While we're predicting at least a 2 to 3 percent chance that precipitation will be near normal or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits (in rainfall) the recovery will be slow," Halpert added.

The fact that the drought is nowhere near ending means the hard times will only get worse, said Michael Hanemann, an environmental economist at Arizona State University. "Another dry winter will mean this is going into territory we haven't had before," said Hanemann. "We'll have even less water to distribute, putting more stress on the system," he said. "We'll likely have more severe water shortages next spring and summer."

Record Low for Rain
There had been hope for heavy rains this winter. The weather condition known as El Nino was expected to bring strong rains to the state, but those projections have been toned way down. Now NOAA predicts that even if El Nino does occur, it is expected to be weak with little rainfall.

That prospect is coming on top of an already dire situation. This past year was the fourth-driest year ever for California based on rainfall and water runoff measurements. It got only around 60 percent of the yearly average precipitation.

- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/21/Even-El-N ino-May-Not-Help-Californias-Drought#sthash.rymt4F 9v.dpuf
Hello all sorry for the delay in update from Roatan as my computer is slower than molasses rolling uphill.

At about 12am the rain started and hasn't stopped. It was very heavy at first with thunder and lightning.At the moment it is steady and we are getting a NW wind.

I Must admit I love it when we get thunder and lightning at night.
I think Shakespeare once wrote, "Entertain us with thine beauty whilst the mood remains; then returneth from whence thou came in humility and shame. For avarice and greed be such divined, remain forever so intertwined"




Quoting 400. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday I posted the ridging across the Eastern U.S. next weekend (Nov-1, Nov 2).

Map I posted yesterday


Greetings C5..Someone said the GFS is not operating properly...Have you heard this.?

Quoting 371. kmanislander:

This seems like a good time for a breakfast break :-)

back later

LOL, your sense of timing if impeccable!
Beauty of a day.
So many posts for so little in the way of weather. 94L is the sorriest collection of clouds I've seen in a long time..
Looks like 94l is becoming detached from the front.
Quoting 409. stormpetrol:

Looks like 94l is becoming detached from the front.

And whats this mean now? Development or will it fizzle away?
Ana is about halfway between Hawaii and Alaska! You can tell it's running out of fuel though.
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings C5..Someone said the GFS is not operating properly...Have you heard this.?


I haven't heard this since the NOAA/NHC issue a few days ago.
today is the anniversary of the '21 hurricane that hit tampa........wasn't the cat 5 widowmaker that i wishcast for.....but a healthy cat 3
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like 94l is becoming detached from the front.

That's if it was attached in the first place
Front has made it through Belize.

24hr Forecast:
Saturday 25th October


Variably cloudy skies with windy and cool conditions. A few showers or periods of rain will occur mostly over the south and along some coastal areas.



Quoting 417. wunderkidcayman:


That's if it was attached in the first place


See post 412
The GFS and ECMWF's depictions of cold weather in the East to end October and start November makes complete sense given the troughing currently positioned across Japan (think Typhoon Rule). However, with it being over a week out, there are still some differences. The GFS wants to keep this an amplified trough, while the ECMWF attempts to cut this off into an upper-level low across the Southeast United States. Either way, it looks like our first true blast of cold air is in store near Halloween.



Quoting kmanislander:


See post 412


I see doesn't mean it's not there
Quoting 420. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS and ECMWF's depictions of cold weather in the East to end October and start November makes complete sense given the troughing currently positioned across Japan (think Typhoon Rule). However, with it being over a week out, there are still some differences. The GFS wants to keep this an amplified trough, while the ECMWF attempts to cut this off into an upper-level low across the Southeast United States. Either way, it looks like our first true blast of cold air is in store near Halloween.






They'll be no sweating for you trick or treaters!:)


Quoting 421. wunderkidcayman:



I see doesn't mean it's not there


Maybe 94L is in stealth mode

Quoting 403. eddiedollar:

Hello all sorry for the delay in update from Roatan as my computer is slower than molasses rolling uphill.

At about 12am the rain started and hasn't stopped. It was very heavy at first with thunder and lightning.At the moment it is steady and we are getting a NW wind.

I Must admit I love it when we get thunder and lightning at night.

Eddie, my son will be in Roatan November 6 or so. He will be living like a local for 10 days or so. Any advice?

Quoting 423. kmanislander:





Maybe 94L is in stealth mode


ROFL!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I see doesn't mean it's not there
So you think the actual experts forgot to put the low on this map also?



And this current JSL view shows a low that hasn't been absorbed by the very well defined cold front? A cold front that's going to dissipate by 18z?

Quoting kmanislander:




Maybe 94L is in stealth mode
It's just conserving its strength so it can make the big push - west - later today into Honduras. Looks like Eddie down in Roatan might get to see some more thunder and lighting later tonight.
So you think the actual experts forgot to put the low on this map also?



sar...colbert said it much better than i can


Quoting 420. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS and ECMWF's depictions of cold weather in the East to end October and start November makes complete sense given the troughing currently positioned across Japan (think Typhoon Rule). However, with it being over a week out, there are still some differences. The GFS wants to keep this an amplified trough, while the ECMWF attempts to cut this off into an upper-level low across the Southeast United States. Either way, it looks like our first true blast of cold air is in store near Halloween.






And a decent chance for rain. I'm not too thrilled about the beginning of this coming week, low to mid 80s...I need a high of 70 max.
NE of the Bahamas
El Nino unlikely this year, but hot and dry conditions expected
ABC Rural By Catherine McAloon


Weather models are now showing an El Nino is unlikely to develop this year.

Of the models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology, three of eight are suggesting El Nino thresholds could be reached by January, while another two remain just shy of the thresholds for an event.

The bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Andrew Watkins, says even though the models have backed away from an El Nino this year, El Nino-like conditions are still expected.

"About half the models from around the world are currently indicating that we are still likely to have an El Nino event. Whether we have one or not, what we are saying to people is we have some conditions out there that will typically bring warmer and drier conditions to large parts of Australia.

"Even though the odds are about 50 per cent, we still expect to see some impacts."

He says temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean have remained warmer than average for more than six months, but have not reached El Nino levels.

"And we do have some cooler waters to the north of Australia, and that combination alone, even if it's not an El Nino, typically brings warmer than normal conditions to Australia, and unfortunately drier than normal conditions to eastern Australia," Dr Watkins said.

The outlook for the rest of the year is for hotter and drier conditions in many parts of the country.

"The current conditions we're seeing, both in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and around Australia's coasts are pushing us towards generally drier, generally warmer summer ahead, increased risk of heatwaves, some increased risk of bushfires, particularly in the south-east, and parts of the west, but a reduced risk of tropical cyclones and a reduced risk of flooding, or widespread flooding, which is always good to see during the wet season," Dr Watkins said.

Topics: weather, agricultural
Quoting sar2401:
So you think the actual experts forgot to put the low on this map also?



And this current JSL view shows a low that hasn't been absorbed by the very well defined cold front? A cold front that's going to dissipate by 18z?



Not they did not forget to put the low

Very well defined cold front is putting it boldly infact it's very bold infact its boulder than Hitler invading Europe
94L

A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 17N81W EARLY SUN THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON AND TUE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE.
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY WE HAD WITH THE FISHING BEING ABSOLUTELY
A YAWNER OVER BIG LAKE. GUESS THAT MEANS I DON`T KNOW WHERE THE
FISH ARE. IF ANYBODY KNOWS...PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TELL ME WHERE
THE FISH ARE. I PROMISED MY WIFE FISH AND CAME HOME EMPTY HANDY.
SHE WAS NOT THRILLED TO EAT LEFT OVERS SINCE I HAD TO GO TO BED FOR
THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON WAS BEAUTIFUL. :)

Trying to remember if I ever saw a weather discussion like this. (Lake Charles, LA NWS)
Ok maybe not that bold but bold enough
The latest GFS is starting to show a trend toward the Euro solution and pinch the trof..I do believe some interesting weather is on the way for the U.S and Canada..

Quoting Salvajega:
A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 17N81W EARLY SUN THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON AND TUE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE.
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.


Hmm something simillar
Not exactly this though

I say Sfc low today not tomorrow early morn

We now have Tropical Cyclone four, to be called Nilofar, in the Arabian Sea:





Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be a floater for it up on the NOAA's floater page.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Hmm something simillar
Not exactly this though

I say Sfc low today not tomorrow early morn



Front would have been dissipated or moved out toward Cuba Bahamas

Low moves WNW towards Yucatan Channel
I really hope that the GFS' solution for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar does not verify....





Hitting Oman as a major then Pakistan as a powerful storm afterwards... Would do a lot of damage and flooding.
Quoting Envoirment:
I really hope that the GFS' solution for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar does not verify....





Hitting Oman as a major then Pakistan as a powerful storm afterwards... Would do a lot of damage and flooding.


More so that its them kinda countries
Winter weather outlook: Goodbye Polar Vortex, hello El Niño?
POSTED 2:04 PM, OCTOBER 18, 2014, BY CNN WIRE, UPDATED AT 04:03PM, OCTOBER 18, 2014
FACEBOOK593TWITTER17GOOGLEPINTERESTREDDITEMAIL
Snow plows move through the mountains of West Virginia Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in Randolph County, W.Va. Sandy was set to collide with a wintry storm from the west and cold air streaming down from the Arctic. The combination superstorm could menace some 50 million people in the most heavily populated corridor in the nation, from the East Coast to the Great Lakes. (AP Photo/Robert Ray)
Oh good, the brutal cold conditions that froze much of the country last winter are unlikely to happen again.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its seasonal outlook Thursday that some of those areas east of the Rockies might even see warmer temperatures this time.

Remember how we kept talking about the Polar Vortex last winter? Chances are there won’t be as much chatter about it as we move into December and January.

“The Polar Vortex is always there,” CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen reminded us. “When it breaks, it spills cold air into the U.S. It’s pretty unlikely that it would happen two years in a row.”

Looks like NOAA agrees, though it warns folks in the South and Southeast to expect below-average temperatures — and more precipitation.

So cities like Detroit and Chicago that saw record amounts — or near records — of snow shouldn’t have as much of the white stuff, but Atlanta and Dallas may have to keep their snow plows ready, Hennen said.

While we probably won’t hear as much about the Polar Vortex, we might see El Niño move his way back into the weather discussion.

Hennen said forecasters have been waiting for an El Niño to form in the Pacific, but it has yet to materialize.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts it as a 67% likelihood of happening during the winter. But the El Niño will be a weak one and bring only some rain to drought-stricken California and other states in the West.

“We’re likely to see normal amounts of rain,” Hennen said, “which will help with the drought, but not alleviate it.”

Breakdown by region of what NOAA expects:

Northeast — above-average temperatures, above-average precipitation along the coast. Hennen said it’s important to remember that a lot of storm systems start in the South and work their way up the coast, so cities like New York and Boston might get more than their normal amounts of snow.

Mid-Atlantic — temperatures should be about normal as will the precipitation amounts in the interior parts of each state; wetter toward the ocean

Midwest — Should be normal in temperature and precipitation in most areas

South — colder, wetter in most areas

West — above-average temperatures throughout, above-average precipitation in some southerly spots

Pacific Northwest — drier and warmer than most years

Alaska — Warmer, normal precipitation

Hawaii — It’s always nice, it seems, but expect less rain this season
Quoting 429. win1gamegiantsplease:



And a decent chance for rain. I'm not too thrilled about the beginning of this coming week, low to mid 80s...I need a high of 70 max.

Yeah, I'm a fan of cold weather; the heat sucks. I shouldn't be complaining since we haven't hit 100F in two years though.

This was that X-3 flare yesterday.. Using a backyard solar telescope, Sergio Castillo of Corona, California, was monitoring the sunspot when it exploded, and he snapped this picture:
Quoting 442. wunderkidcayman:



More so that its them kinda countries


It's more so that Oman is basically a desert so heavy rains will cause a lot of flooding as the ground will be dry and not able to absorb the rain. And with Pakistan, half of it is mountainous and the other half low lying areas, so the mountains will likely cause increased rainfall and cause very bad flooding for low lying areas.

And a major hurricane will cause a lot of damage no matter where it hits. If a major hurricane were to hit Florida for instance, it would cause a lot of damage, despite Florida generally being better at handling heavy rain than the likes of Pakistan and Oman.

Fingers crossed that the governments of Pakistan and Oman will be watching this system closely and evacuate where needed.
Quoting 431. ricderr:

El Nino unlikely this year, but hot and dry conditions expected
ABC Rural By Catherine McAloon


Weather models are now showing an El Nino is unlikely to develop this year.

Of the models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology, three of eight are suggesting El Nino thresholds could be reached by January, while another two remain just shy of the thresholds for an event.

The bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Andrew Watkins, says even though the models have backed away from an El Nino this year, El Nino-like conditions are still expected.

"About half the models from around the world are currently indicating that we are still likely to have an El Nino event. Whether we have one or not, what we are saying to people is we have some conditions out there that will typically bring warmer and drier conditions to large parts of Australia.

"Even though the odds are about 50 per cent, we still expect to see some impacts."

He says temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean have remained warmer than average for more than six months, but have not reached El Nino levels.

"And we do have some cooler waters to the north of Australia, and that combination alone, even if it's not an El Nino, typically brings warmer than normal conditions to Australia, and unfortunately drier than normal conditions to eastern Australia," Dr Watkins said.

The outlook for the rest of the year is for hotter and drier conditions in many parts of the country.

"The current conditions we're seeing, both in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and around Australia's coasts are pushing us towards generally drier, generally warmer summer ahead, increased risk of heatwaves, some increased risk of bushfires, particularly in the south-east, and parts of the west, but a reduced risk of tropical cyclones and a reduced risk of flooding, or widespread flooding, which is always good to see during the wet season," Dr Watkins said.

Topics: weather, agricultural


That's odd because our favorite forecaster from Orlando said yesterday that finally El Nino will declared in December.
ESPI has come around. It's been in the .70s for a few weeks. The cold water that was coming up from South America & coming to the equator around region 3,4 mixing in has been shut off. I think we will could see El Niño conditions very soon. Don't know if it will last long enough at this point to be considered an offical El Niño. The Kelvin Waves aren't as strong as they were.
Quoting 448. Skyepony:

ESPI has come around. It's been in the .70s for a few weeks. The cold water that was coming up from South America & coming to the equator around region 3,4 mixing in has been shut off. I think we will could see El Nio conditions very soon. Don't know if it will last long enough at this point to be considered an offical El Nio. The Kelvin Waves aren't as strong as they were.
Yep. Had a significant impact on forecasts that were being made. Nothing that happens with the oceans or atmosphere surprises me now , but I always watch and learn..
I have 94L near 17N 83.5W moving E-ESE

While best track data has it slightly further NW

As of 15Z more of the front has become stationary and weakening

Front seems to splitting the split is near 20N 82W rest of the front moving out E
Quoting 447. luvtogolf:



That's odd because our favorite forecaster from Orlando said yesterday that finally El Nino will declared in December.

You don't think it's even odder that the article disagrees with NOAA's outlook?

Conditions are on the cusp.. .5 at the moment.
New TWO nothing changed
Quoting 447. luvtogolf:



That's odd because our favorite forecaster from Orlando said yesterday that finally El Nino will declared in December.


He's been singing the El Nino song since April or May and still hasn't come to fruition along with his favorite word - "hammered"
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


He's been singing the El Nino song since April or May and still hasn't come to fruition

Sounds like he's trying the broken clock strategy. Eventually he will be right!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while the disturbance meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Urk! 350 lb. guard throws TD pass for Arkansas! Designed play, too.
Quoting 433. Skyepony:

94L




invest 94L looking better now
94L
He's been singing the El Nino song since April or May and still hasn't come to fruition


actually...he's been singing it since last fall......we're about to come up on a year of predictions that never panned out
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Not they did not forget to put the low

Very well defined cold front is putting it boldly infact it's very bold infact its boulder than Hitler invading Europe
Hitler didn't use boulders when he invaded any place on the continent. He was already in Europe.

You don't see a pronounced wind shift on the south side of the front compared to the north side? Even the dewpoints are lower north of the front. When was the last time you saw a cold front as well defined as this one in the Caribbean on October 25?

What exactly do you think is going to happen with 94L? Do you see a big future ahead for this broad upper level trough?
~
Today, on South Side of Cayman Brac, a beautiful cool Westerly breeze and high overcast - no rain so far - but I think that is just a matter of time.
Maybe, just maybe that Cold Front is a harbinger of the beginning of the end of the 2014 Hurricane Season - that is as far as I ever would go with "Wishcasting".
All that said, I will not lower any guard until the Season is officially dusted off and put away - we have bad memories of a recent powerful November storm here on the Brac.
You don't think it's even odder that the article disagrees with NOAA's outlook?

Conditions are on the cusp.. .5 at the moment.



they based they article off of the aussie mets forecast....aussies aren't nearly as bullish that we'll see el nino before next year.....i think we'll see it this year though...
Quoting canehater1:
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY WE HAD WITH THE FISHING BEING ABSOLUTELY
A YAWNER OVER BIG LAKE. GUESS THAT MEANS I DON`T KNOW WHERE THE
FISH ARE. IF ANYBODY KNOWS...PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TELL ME WHERE
THE FISH ARE. I PROMISED MY WIFE FISH AND CAME HOME EMPTY HANDY.
SHE WAS NOT THRILLED TO EAT LEFT OVERS SINCE I HAD TO GO TO BED FOR
THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON WAS BEAUTIFUL. :)

Trying to remember if I ever saw a weather discussion like this. (Lake Charles, LA NWS)
LOL. He sounds like he has my fishing skills. I've learned to just stop at the Winn-Dixie and pick up some fish instead of kidding myself that something is going to suddenly improve my luck. :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 439. Envoirment:

We now have Tropical Cyclone four, to be called Nilofar, in the Arabian Sea



Ah thank you, so it's a newborn "waterlily", which should be the meaning of name "Nilofar", contributed by Pakistan.