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Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I've just completed a NEW BLOG!!!! containing my thoughts on all the tropical activity occuring right now if you're interested.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is. It is an eye.


Looks like it. Can't wait for it to completely clear.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and the topic is?


The American Experience. English 11 course title in Fairfax County....
How much wind shear is 94 currently under? 30-40 kts?
Quoting sdswwwe:
How much wind shear is 94 currently under? 30-40 kts?

30-50 knots, yes.
Very nice convective refire on the eastern side.

ATCF says 94L's pressure is down a single millibar:

AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 94L's pressure is down a single millibar:

AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,




winds are all so up too 30kt


AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO
18z GFS showing 94L as ''Beryl'' by 84 hours off the US East Coast.
Ok Sanvu is a typhoon on JWTC but not in the JMA so which is one correct?
Quoting Tazmanian:




winds are all so up too 30kt


AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO

They were raised to 30 knots at the 18Z update, Taz.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
That moment when I realize I have a huge paper due in English tomorrow and I haven't started because I've been too busy on weather blogs and chilling with my GF....



The moment when i realize i've been talking to my GF about weather too much,
when i even find the time between weather systems to talk to her at all....
aka the moment i got dumped, 2 days ago.

Oh well :(

weather is MUCH more important ;)
Quoting allancalderini:
Ok Sanvu is a typhoon on JWTC but not in the JMA so which is one correct?

I always use JTWC... I find them to be more reliable.
Quoting sdswwwe:
How much wind shear is 94 currently under? 30-40 kts?

the southern part between 5-20kt the northern part 30-50kts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They were raised to 30 knots at the 18Z update, Taz.



oh lol
It's possible we see a moderate risk issued for severe weather tomorrow:

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF D1 CONVECTION ON
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MOST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE CNTRL
STATES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THE CURRENT PRESENCE OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SERN TX AND LA RENDERS
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 750-1500 J/KG.
STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INTENSIFYING KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST
TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE LARGE/ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
CONVECTION SHOULD GROW QUICKLY UPSCALE INTO A QLCS...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
YIELDING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES /EITHER OF
WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/.


Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 94L's pressure is down a single millibar:

AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

pretty close to where the LLCOC is though moving SW on vis and shortwave sat loops
For 00zulu, they re-evaluated&altered the 18zulu MaxSusWinds from 25knots to 30knots
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The moment when i realize i've been talking to my GF about weather too much,
when i even find the time between weather systems to talk to her at all....
aka the moment i got dumped, 2 days ago.

Oh well :(

weather is MUCH more important ;)


My GF loves that I talk about weather... We're going storm chasing once I get a car (AKA probably never, but I can only hope) She's into nature photography so that goes well with tornadoes. Plus she has other... qualities.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing 94L as ''Beryl'' by 84 hours off the US East Coast.


Seems to be moving out of our area now which is good news, we just got too much rain and now many are suffering the consequences !
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


lol, both painfully persistent storms.


A track like fay? What about the newest models.
Has anyone ever seen a depression develop with wind shear > 30kts?
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Bud is just shy of becoming a hurricane;

EP, 02, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1078W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 240, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, M,
Quoting sdswwwe:
Has anyone ever seen a depression develop with wind shear > 30kts?


Matter of fact, yes, several times. To name a storm early in the season that faced just as hostile conditions - Barry of 2007 comes to mind.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


My GF loves that I talk about weather... We're going storm chasing once I get a car (AKA probably never, but I can only hope) She's into nature photography so that goes well with tornadoes. Plus she has other... qualities.


She's a Keeper. Its a bonus of shes good at making good food. :)


On topic: night-night 94L!
Bud is trying... half an eyewall maybe...

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Bud is trying... half an eyewall maybe...


Can you get that image for Sanvu?
Dvorak says a lot about the current state of Bud, actually.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Can you get that image for Sanvu?

Was just looking at it.



Most recent exact kind of what he posted was from this morning. Early this morning.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Can you get that image for Sanvu?


It's a few hours old... But here:



Here's the link to the page if you don't have it:

US Navy Tropical Page
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:














glad to see they have an idea of where this thing is going lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was just looking at it.



Most recent exact kind of what he posted was from this morning. Early this morning.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's a few hours old... But here:



Here's the link to the page if you don't have it:

US Navy Tropical Page

Looks like a good building block of an eyewall to potentially become a more powerful one... Thanks for the link WxGeekVA... Another for the favorites page!
Bud finally getting some deep convection on the eyewall.


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






SHIPS hates 94L... It really doesn't see it strengthening at all, which is pretty unusual since the SHIPS usually just shows the intenisty of an inevst going up no matter what.
94L is 5kt a way in becomeing TS 94L
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


A track like fay? What about the newest models.


Somewhat
Quoting yqt1001:
Bud finally getting some deep convection on the eyewall.



Almost a hurricane.

24/0000 UTC 14.1N 107.6W T3.5/3.5 BUD -- East Pacific

If it keeps organizing, it may make it to hurricane status at 11PM.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is. It is an eye.

Please show me where the eye is in that image
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is 5kt a way in becomeing TS 94L


Well, not enough convection, the low is elongated, and on top of that, its hard to tell if it as a COMPLETELY closed low
Quoting WxGeekVA:


On topic: night-night 94L!


Hope it feels better tomorrow morning!



Shear is slowly, but surely dropping over 94L
Deep convection is roughly 60% wrapped around the eye in the eyewall.

Quoting weatherh98:


Well, not enough convection, the low is elongated, and on top of that, its hard to tell if it as a COMPLETELY closed low


There is no way they would classify something as disorganized like this with a naked swirl and still on a trough....

GOM RGB
Quoting weatherh98:


Well, not enough convection, the low is elongated, and on top of that, its hard to tell if it as a COMPLETELY closed low


What he's saying is it's within 5 kts of obtaining winds that are of tropical storm strength.
Quoting tropicfreak:


What he's saying is it's within 5 kts of obtaining winds that are of tropical storm strength.



so iif 94L can do a little better overe the weekend and get a closed low and 35kt winds we may see this go right too the B storm
Quoting Tazmanian:



so iif 94L can do a little better overe the weekend and get a closed low and 35kt winds we may see this go right too the B storm


Iguess i could see your point that yes if those were to happen, you areright it would
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Deep convection is roughly 60% wrapped around the eye in the eyewall.

that's called a CDO.

You can roughly figure out where the eye will develop based off satellite imagery (or more precisely with microwave imagery), but for now there is no eye. There is a partial ring of deep convection trying to fill out around the center of circulation as this COC is also working to clear itself out to form what will become the eye.

Quoting kmanislander:


I just looked at Windsat from this morning but nothing is showing at the surface at those coordinates. What you are seeing is at the 925 or 850 mb level. In fact, even where 94L is supposed to be all I see there is a weak convergence line of wind at the surface. No well defined surface low at all. See the windsat pass below in two sections.94L is not doing much in the Caribbean and the only chance for trouble here is if something was to spin up from the remnants of 94L once it moves off to the NE.



agreed...been saying that for a few days now
This gives a pretty good idea of whatsgoing on
12 hr



24hr



36 hr



48hr
Good Night fellow bloggers. I am off to bed.

Tomorrow we anlalyze Sanvu and likely Hurricane Bud and
see if the GFS, ECMWF, HRWF, etc can agree on a Beryl.

I say Bud peaks at 80-90 mph, no more.

Well it looks like 94L should exit the Caribbean by tomorrow morning and hopefully give us some sunshine to enjoy. We certainly need to dry out here not to mention the weekend being only 2 days away :-)

Both the Cayman Islands and Jamaica lucked out today with the very deep convection training to the NE between the islands. A little to the East or the West and either location could have seen several inches of rain today.
Evening kman, hope it dries enough for a golf game this weekend for ya! Should miss us as well to east.


Looks like 94 vorticity is starting to focus and bud is really getting rolling
It's taken on the shape of a hurricane icon.

Quoting weatherh98:


Looks like 94 vorticity is starting to focus and bud is really getting rolling
Still elongated though..
Quoting weatherh98:


Looks like 94 vorticity is starting to focus and bud is really getting rolling
The strength of the vorticity has increased but I wouldn't say it has focused. If anything it has done the opposite, becoming more stretched out as it is pulled out of the Caribbean.

850mb vorticity 12hrs ago




current 850mb vorticity

Bud has likely attained hurricane status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud has likely attained hurricane status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE



I always see you guys get info even before advisories how do you do it?
It's ATCF?
Bud definitely has at least a small, ragged eye at this point:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud has likely attained hurricane status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE




Cody, This time it is an eye.. even though i agreed last time
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I always see you guys get info even before advisories how do you do it?
It's ATCF?


yes
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I always see you guys get info even before advisories how do you do it?
It's ATCF?

Yeah, here's the link.

Keep refreshing the page until it loads if it doesn't the first time.

Link


Lopsided CDO much. :P
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:







This would be really interesting if it comes to pass. If 94L runs into a high and starts moving west, it will have a much better environment to develop, off the SE coast. It looks fairly impressive even now.



Hey look he can see now!!
I'd say Bud is likely a hurricane with about 75mph. They eye is very ragged, though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, here's the link.

Keep refreshing the page until it loads if it doesn't the first time.

Link


thanks
Here we go!

Quoting splash3392:
Evening kman, hope it dries enough for a golf game this weekend for ya! Should miss us as well to east.


My clubs have been very lonely but we should get a break with relatively quiet conditions for the next week . The GFS has a new low with heavy weather over us 168 hours out but lots of time to watch how that plays out.
EP, 02, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1078W, 60, 992, TS,

its 70 mph for 11PM

Bud
Now that an eye is visible, watch CIMSS ADT T-numbers skyrocket.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
EP, 02, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1078W, 60, 992, TS,

its 70 mph for 11PM

Maybe. Although sometimes, recent developments like this allow for NHC to go off what they put in the ATCF file since it is updated 3 hours before the actual advisory comes out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Now that an eye is visible, watch CIMSS ADT T-numbers skyrocket.



ADT T-numbers?
How long until the shear starts kicking in for 94L?
Bud isn't the only one popping an eye.

These two tropical cyclones have acted very similar despite being in different basins.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud isn't the only one popping an eye.

These two tropical cyclones have acted very similar despite being in different basins.



right'''I was making that connection between the two
Don't be surprised ya'll if we get a hurricane in June this year over in the Atlantic.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud isn't the only one popping an eye.

These two tropical cyclones have acted very similar despite being in different basins.

I wonder why.
Sanvu looks really good on microwave...

Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't be surprised ya'll if we get a hurricane in June this year over in the Atlantic.


so... they don't care about El nino conditions developing.... and in JUNE!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud isn't the only one popping an eye.

These two tropical cyclones have acted very similar despite being in different basins.


I give the edge to Bud





Good night everyone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe. Although sometimes, recent developments like this allow for NHC to go off what they put in the ATCF file since it is updated 3 hours before the actual advisory comes out.


What are ADT T-numbers... T-numbers are like the amountof energy and its cumulative right? What about ADT
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


so... they don't care about El nino conditions developing.... and in JUNE!
El nino will not be forming in June...and the pattern has set us up all ready for potential trouble in the caribbean in the next 2 weeks.
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I give the edge to Bud





Good night everyone.
The convection will wrap around Bud in the next couple hours as long as dry air keeps out of the way. Bud wins this one.
Quoting weatherh98:


What are ADT T-numbers... T-numbers are like the amountof energy and its cumulative right? What about ADT

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.
Ohhhh that's nasty.That type of pattern sends storms into the caribbean and into the GOM.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link


Thanks
It will be a very interesting mission when they reach Bud on Thursday that departs at 10:15 AM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 24/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BUD
C. 24/1415Z
D. 15.4N 107.7W
E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.
That's a 2004 pattern right there that same ridge blocked storms like Frances and Jeanne from going OTS and shunted it back west towards FL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.


It makes sense with all the heat we had this winter, we have weak troughs in play.. This is looking more and more similar to 2002, 2004.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ohhhh that's nasty.That type of pattern sends storms into the caribbean and into the GOM.
It is bad for some countries like US and the Caribbean islands but it make storms to not hit Mexico,Central and south America. the pattern that I love is when cape verde storms form and go out to see but strength to high categories like Katia last year and Danielle in 2010.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ohhhh that's nasty.That type of pattern sends storms into the caribbean and into the GOM.


thats a path like katrina and rita took
It's going to be a very hot weekend/Memorial Day here in Cincinnati. First 90's of the year here.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 91.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 92.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
**Tropical Update**


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The moment when i realize i've been talking to my GF about weather too much,
when i even find the time between weather systems to talk to her at all....
aka the moment i got dumped, 2 days ago.

Oh well :(

weather is MUCH more important ;)


... which opinion may explain why she dumped you.
It's been absolutely miserable in the Bahamas the past 2 days... don't say that often. Looks like the next 2 days will be very questionable as well.

HELP!!!!!!!
Quoting Bielle:


... which opinion may explain why she dumped you.
Pro tip: Keep the weather talk to yourself & the blog.
606. xcool


MAY UPDATE
Quoting Thrawst:
It's been absolutely miserable in the Bahamas the past 2 days... don't say that often. Looks like the next 2 days will be very questionable as well.

HELP!!!!!!!


Do you have a cistern?
Now might be a good time to ummmm??? Drain it some!
Quoting spathy:


Do you have a cistern?
Now might be a good time to ummmm??? Drain it some!

Or have a family of Americans stay at your house for the week....they'll drain it plenty...lol
609. MTWX
Quoting Ameister12:
It's going to be a very hot weekend/Memorial Day here in Cincinnati. First 90's of the year here.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 91.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 92.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.


We are looking at getting our first 100 degree day of the year on Sunday here in MS!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.


You do know, sir, that 1000mb charts ARE NOT the steering currents for tropical systems? Show me a current 500mb, or 700mb image and I would be more inclined to believe what you are saying.
Good evening all...most of the heavy showers from 94L is off to the north, north west and south west of  me, but i'm wondering if the line of moderate to heavy showers to my south west will miss me!


As I have been saying, the eye is having trouble clearing out and is not even visible on satellite imagery. Microwave imagery shows there is little convection over the COC, meaning there is an eye feature embedded within the CDO. However, the satellite image shows that Bud still has plenty of cloudiness over the COC. With favorable conditions, Bud will continue to strengthen and organize, allowing the eye to clear out.

Quoting boltdwright:


You do know, sir, that 1000mb charts ARE NOT the steering currents for tropical systems? Show me a current 500mb, or 700mb image and I would be more inclined to believe what you are saying.


You are right, but no need to say it slightly rudely like that...
Quoting Grothar:



You may have a good point. I think 2004 was a weak el Nino year. I have not agreed with a below average season since the intial reports came out. My figures are a lot higher.


2004 was weak el nino, and I think 05 was warm neutral. Either way, while we may end up with fewer storms, that doesn't automatically convert to 10 or 11. 14 NS is still considerably less than 19, after all. Alberto IMO was pretty much a statistical fluke; I've been more concerned about the quasi-stationary rain pattern that has been hanging about from Belize NE to Bermuda for the last 10 days. I'm thinking that if we are seeing such a pattern now, we may end up with a similar pattern in early August, before the shear related impacts of an el nino have time to kick in. I also worry about a blocking high - or pair of highs - that send storms up FL / GA AL and coincidentally across the Bahamas. We certainly don't want a repeat of 2004 track-wise.

Some things to ponder, that's for sure.
Good Evening. While 94L is only an invest at this point, I will be curious to see what impact the crossing of Cuba will have on it. Not only that but there is strong band of very high sheer at the moment (link below) per CMISS blowing across the Florida Straits and the Bahamas. We really need the rain in North Florida and Georgia if some of the model guidance as to a low forming and moving back West pans out, but it is going to have a very tough time developing further unless the sheer relaxes over the next 4-5 days where it is currently headed IMO.

Link
WWWOOOWWWW..I am just able to see the models and the Euro has this!!

Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormBud for 24May12amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 14.0n107.8w
Its vector had changed from NNWest at ~6.1mph(9.8k/h) to NNWest at ~4.8mph(7.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had increased from ~55knots(63mph)102k/h to ~60knots(69mph)111k/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 995millibars to 992millibars

For those who like to visually track TSBud's path... AJS is PuntaAbreojos
SJD is CaboSanLucas . ZLO is Manzanillo . ACA is Acapulco

The easternmost connected dot is where NHC declared 92E to be TropicalDepressionBud
The next dot to the west on that same curved line-segment is where TDBud became TSBud
The southernmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TSBud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline
The AJS blob is the endpoint of the previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 24May12amGMT, TSBud was headed toward passing over TodosLosSantos,BajaCaliforniaSur in ~5days20hours from now

Copy&paste ajs-26.727n113.42w, sjd, zlo, aca, 9.1n99.3w, 9.2n99.9w, 9.3n100.3w, 9.4n100.7w, 9.7n101.6w, 10.2n102.6w, 10.2n102.6w-10.8n103.6w, 10.8n103.6w-11.7n104.6w, 11.7n104.6w-12.6n105.6w, 12.6n105.6w-12.9n106.6w, 12.9n106.6w-13.1n107.5w, 13.1n107.5w-13.6n107.7w, 13.6n107.7w-14.0n107.8w, 13.6n107.7w-23.56n110.33w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 9.1n99.3w and the first 10.2n102.6w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 10.2n102.6w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting ncstorm:
WWWOOOWWWW..I am just able to see the models and the Euro has this!!



ugh
Quoting Thrawst:
It's been absolutely miserable in the Bahamas the past 2 days... don't say that often. Looks like the next 2 days will be very questionable as well.

HELP!!!!!!!
Maybe we will get some cool lightning with everything.

It's really weird to have the opening of Parliament under tents because of rain.... it's nasty and messy everywhere.... the roads are all flooded... and grey all day [which is SO not what we r used to]....

However, with the speed at which this system seems to be booking it through / over Cuba, we may have clear wx for the public holiday on Monday.
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all...most of the heavy showers from 94L is off to the north, north west and south west of %uFFFDme, but i'm wondering if the line of moderate to heavy showers to my south west will miss me!


Hey Nigel. Not sure if it is going to miss you but Invest aside, Cuba is going to get hammered with flooding rains over the next 12-24 hours..... Sometimes worse than a fast moving tropical system.
623. MTWX
Quoting ncstorm:
WWWOOOWWWW..I am just able to see the models and the Euro has this!!



With that one there, mother nature may get a second swing at NYC!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You are right, but no need to say it slightly rudely like that...


Sorry about that!! Just don't like when people post mis-information.
Quoting Abacosurf:

Or have a family of Americans stay at your house for the week....they'll drain it plenty...lol
Hey stranger... What's up?
Quoting ncstorm:
WWWOOOWWWW..I am just able to see the models and the Euro has this!!



Wow! What's the pressure at? For some reason I think the Euro is overdoing it.
Quoting Abacosurf:

Or have a family of Americans stay at your house for the week....they'll drain it plenty...lol


Whats wrong with 5 showers a day and changing clothes 6x/day?
LOL
ncstorm...I was along your beautiful coast late last week...down the ICW from Moorehead City...really pretty...
TS WATHES ISSUED

70 MPH
991 MB

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Yes, Cuba is really getting it
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD (EP022012)
8:00 PM PDT May 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "BUD" ALMOST A HURRICANE

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bud (991 hPa) located at 14.2N 107.9W or 355 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 16.1N 107.0W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4N 105.9W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.0N 105.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the pacific coast form Punta San Telmo to La Fortuna
Thanks for having a sense of humor :O)
Its a good thing.

Quoting Abacosurf:

Or have a family of Americans stay at your house for the week....they'll drain it plenty...lol
Quoting Patrap:
A fire has been reported on a nuclear submarine at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.The Portsmouth Fire Department is responding to the fire on the USS Miami SSN 755
Why in the world are they using fire hoses on the sub? ITS IN THE FREAKING WATER. Unless the fire is on the deck or its in dry dock what is the point? They need to put the water in the sub. Edit: Am I missing something?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
48 hours out:



That pattern better go away before the start of hurricane season. It's not going to be good at all if that continues.



Add a 500mb trough on the east coast, which is invisible in that map, and out they go to the graveyard. It's actually quite the dance to get a storm to strike the US. Sure the 1000mb high guides the waves & weak depressions west but eventually they have to move north. 1000mb layer is valid only for a short time, assuming a strengthening storm. Once up to TS strength many other variables come into play. What steered the 04 season to the coast was a persistent 500mb ridge in the NE and a persistent trough in the great lakes.
Quoting BahaHurican:
2004 was weak el nino, and I think 05 was warm neutral. Either way, while we may end up with fewer storms, that doesn't automatically convert to 10 or 11. 14 NS is still considerably less than 19, after all. Alberto IMO was pretty much a statistical fluke; I've been more concerned about the quasi-stationary rain pattern that has been hanging about from Belize NE to Bermuda for the last 10 days. I'm thinking that if we are seeing such a pattern now, we may end up with a similar pattern in early August, before the shear related impacts of an el nino have time to kick in. I also worry about a blocking high - or pair of highs - that send storms up FL / GA AL and coincidentally across the Bahamas. We certainly don't want a repeat of 2004 track-wise.

Some things to ponder, that's for sure.
Hello Guys again ! lets see what we can get this seasons hi everyone!
535 CaicosRetiredSailor: [computer-generated path-prediction models for 94L ]

I prefer the way WxGeekVA's "computer" thinks out its models.
They sending a Foam Truck from another Community to the Sub fire.

also..

On March 1, 2012, Miami and her crew of 13 officers and 120 enlisted personnel arrived at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine. While at the shipyard, Miami will receive a major overhaul and system upgrades.
AUDIO: York County, and Rockingham and Strafford Counties In NH Fire and EMS Live Audio Feed

News reports from NECN and other sources on Wednesday evening, 23 May 2012, suggest that a fire may have broken out in the boat's forward compartment during the refit; 2 injuries have been reported as of 2000EDT. [1]

It is confirmed fire has broken out in a forward compartment while being overhauled at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine. Fire was discovered at 5:30 PM EDT and at the time of this report (9:30 PM EDT) it is not known if the fire is under control or extinguished. Four injuries have been reported at this time
Quoting aspectre:
535 CaicosRetiredSailor: [computer-generated path-prediction models]

I prefer the way WxGeekVA's "computer" thinks out its models.


They are running right now!
I love the fact that my grandfather is here today. He was a met and worked on a Polaris Class Sub.
May 23, 2012 SST Anomaly

Toss this out on the deck with an approaching storm and then you have cause for concern. Similar set up from hrs48-144. 144hrs is below.

02E/H/B/C1
MARK
13.85N/108.1W
Ok a bit off topic but what city would you prefer for the 2020 Olympics? Istanbul, Tokyo, and Madrid. I pick Tokyo out of those three. I think Tokyo is possibly the greatest city on earth.
.
94L/INV/XX
MARK
19.25N/79.75W
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The data is in... LOL Fake runs have run here are the results.



FAKE MODELS NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE NHC AND I AM NOT A FORECASTER
Toronto needs to watch this storm.
**11:00PM ADVISORY**
(click image to enlarge)




Tepco estimates total cesium-137 release from Fukushima at 360,000 terabecquerels — 4 times higher than Chernobyl’s 85,000 terabecquerels


TEPCO estimate sees more radiation than NISA’s The Yomiuri Shimbun May 24, 2012

Tokyo Electric Power Co. has estimated the total amount of radioactive substances discharged from its Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant measured 760,000 terabecquerels, 1.6 times the estimate released by the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency in February.

[...]

There are two ways to estimate the amount of discharged radioactive substances.

[...]

TEPCO combined the two methods and repeated its calculations under different conditions. It reached a final estimate of 400,000 terabecquerels of iodine-131 and 360,000 terabecquerels of cesium-137.

[...] According to Asahi last September:

Of various radioactive materials, the amount of cesium 137 was 15,000 terabecquerels in the Fukushima accident, about one-sixth the 85,000 terabecquerels in the Chernobyl accident.

Cesium 137 levels of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima were far lower, at only 89 terabecquerels.
Quoting spathy:


Do you have a cistern?
Now might be a good time to ummmm??? Drain it some!


Send the rain here please. I will take a day of rain anytime over 95F and brutal unrelenting sun all day. I think I live in the wrong state, seriously.
By 2020, Tokyo may be a Ghost Town if we Lose the SFP in #4.
maybe a hurricane by morning!!!
Hey all, I'd just like to announce that I'm transferring to FSU and be participating in their meteorology program. With the hurricane season beginning in about 8 days, I'm looking forward to hopefully staying up late on this blog and contributing.
Quoting cg2916:


Wow! What's the pressure at? For some reason I think the Euro is overdoing it.
the water temp are to cool to have a hurricane that far north!!
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 +24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!
663. j2008
Quoting RussianWinter:
Hey all, I'd just like to announce that I'm transferring to FSU and be participating in their meteorology program. With the hurricane season beginning in about 8 days, I'm looking forward to hopefully staying up late on this blog and contributing.
I wish you the best of luck.
Invest 94-L appears to be struggling...against the two challenges I pointed out last night on my quick blog post. However...the rains I'll bet have been significant in the Cayman Islands and Cuba in the last several hours...
Sanvu
The Mets in Miami are saying the tomorrow we will have a 70% chance of rain and storms,plus a flood watch until 8:00PM at night?,don't understand?, just looking at the satellite,all the bad weather is going East of Miami,I doubt very much!! if we will get any rain tomorrow,94L is history!.Again don't understand they reasoning!! for their forecast???.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Invest 94-L appears to be struggling...against the two challenges I pointed out last night on my quick blog post. However...the rains I'll bet have been significant in the Cayman Islands and Cuba in the last several hours...

well I guess I win cause not a drop is falling here on the Northern coast of Grand Cayman
but earler this moring and yesterday and daybefore yes
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
12:00 PM JST May 24 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (990 hPa) located at 19.1N 139.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 139.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 23.2N 141.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 24.9N 143.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
its this tropical storm moving up the east coast..
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Invest 94-L appears to be struggling...against the two challenges I pointed out last night on my quick blog post. However...the rains I'll bet have been significant in the Cayman Islands and Cuba in the last several hours...
approaching and traversing the terrain of cuba will do that its got challenges ahead
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
its this tropical storm moving up the east coast..
thats the next system after 94l

maybe
Quoting Hurricane1956:
The Mets in Miami are saying the tomorrow we will have a 70% chance of rain and storms,plus a flood watch until 8:00PM at night?,don't understand?, just looking at the satellite,all the bad weather is going East of Miami,I doubt very much!! if we will get any rain tomorrow,94L is history!.Again don't understand they reasoning!! for their forecast???.


If you watched the moisture and storms push N and West towards Ft Myers today you would have an idea why the caution. Miami is saturated and there will be enough instability to produce alot more rain.
But thats Just My thinking.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well I guess I win cause not a drop is falling here on the Northern coast of Grand Cayman

It looks like from satellite there is deeper convection east of you...at Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Maybe down there is where the rains are at in the Caymans. I don't have a radar of that area to know for sure

Due to the fact that sst's have risen nicly over the last couple of months combined with atomspheric conditions and early storm dev with the prospect of neutral conditions till at least mid sept or later numbers are increased to represent these facts at this point in time

TOTAL STORMS 14 TO 16
TOTAL HURRICANES 8 TO 10
TOTAL MAJORS 4 TO 6
TOTAL CAT 5's 0 TO 3
this is my opinion and donot represent official forecasts
I don't think it's stopped raining in Cayman Brac today. They are getting heavy rains today like we got on Grand Cayman monday



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
but earler this moring and yesterday and daybefore yes
Time for another poll :) With the expected neutral to weak El Nino conditions developing in the coming months, do you think this hurricane season will end up being...
A) more like 2002
B) more like 2004
C) a blend of 2002 and 2004


I go with C
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Due to the fact that sst's have risen nicly over the last couple of months combined with atomspheric conditions and early storm dev with the prospect of neutral conditions till at least mid sept or later numbers are increased to represent these facts at this point in time
TOTAL STORMS 14 TO 16
TOTAL HURRICANES 8 TO 10
TOTAL MAJORS 4 TO 6
TOTAL CAT 5's 0 TO 3
this is my opinion and donot represent official forecasts

I have been watching the 26 deg C isotherm position since April thru screenshots of maps. For those that read my full blog posts and see the thermo charts I put up....you may know what I am talking about.

After running an animation on my computer of all these thermo charts...between April 12 and May 23....the 26 deg C isotherm has moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf stream. Meanwhile...warming has been minimal to none in the eastern tropical Atlantic. I don't know if this means more home-grown activity in the western Atlantic or not since I am more into day-to-day weather patterns than climo....
Look at the heights over the east coast!

635 hurricanehunter27: Why in the world are they using fire hoses on the sub? ITS IN THE FREAKING WATER. Unless the fire is on the deck or its in dry dock what is the point? They need to put the water in the sub. Edit: Am I missing something?

Seawater corrodes like crazy. And when it dries, it leaves behind a hard-to-remove conductive film behind in the electronics and electrical systems. Smothering the fire with seawater could end up causing all of the electricly-powered equipment that isn't within separate water-tight containers prone to short-circuiting sparks everywhere if it isn't disassembled&cleaned&reassembled properly.

Cleaning up equipment specially built for submarines is expensive. Cleaning it up after seawater contamination is MORE expensive; sometimes impossible to clean to military submarine standards.
Throwing out and replacing that equipment would be well past eye-wateringly painful/EXPENSIVE even in terms of USmilitary budgets.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
The Mets in Miami are saying the tomorrow we will have a 70% chance of rain and storms,plus a flood watch until 8:00PM at night?,don't understand?, just looking at the satellite,all the bad weather is going East of Miami,I doubt very much!! if we will get any rain tomorrow,94L is history!.Again don't understand they reasoning!! for their forecast???.



ULL entering stage left which will put all this into motion.

Virgina's storm preparedness tax free shopping begins..

Tomorrow through next Thursday, the 5 percent state and local sales tax will be waived on 22 categories of emergency preparedness items that cost less than $60, such as batteries, flashlights, bottled water, smoke detectors and first-aid kits.
Portable generators under $1,000 are also tax-free.
A full list is available at tax.virginia.gov.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ok a bit off topic but what city would you prefer for the 2020 Olympics? Istanbul, Tokyo, and Madrid. I pick Tokyo out of those three. I think Tokyo is possibly the greatest city on earth.


. . . ahem:

605. hurricanehunter27 10:09 PM EDT on May 23, 2012

:>)
Lil drier than forecast today, wasn't going to say nuttin. Not too often you hear the NWS fess up. Also sounds like the heavy rain will remain east of FL altogether. Satellite can tell you that much however.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 240151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST. LOCAL AREA HAS COME UNDER
SUBSIDENCE TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY LITTLE CONVECTION. WE WERE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF A DEPARTING JET. 500 MB TEMP HAS WARMED QUITE A
BIT...NOW AT -6.9C ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING. SO NOT AS
UNSTABLE. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY OFF THE SE FL COAST
ALL DAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DID DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS NOW EVEN
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF HEADING ESE...AND MODELS INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS
IS TO KEEP THE BEST CONVERGENCE/HEAVY RAIN JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES ALONG THE SE
FL COAST. BUT SE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING SOME AND THIS COULD
INCREASE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NW ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT`S OVERDOING ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY.

SO HERE`S THE BOTTOM LINE - THE MOST FAVORED AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE OFF OUR ATLANTIC
COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE COASTAL
CONVERGENCE, WILL MAINTAIN POPS AS IS. STILL LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR MIAMI- DADE COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THU...GIVEN THE EXTREME
RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED FROM THE SWEETWATER-DORAL AREAS ON TUESDAY
WITH STANDING WATER REMAINING IN AREAS. IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAIN TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE HARD HIT LOCALES. /GREGORIA

&&
Tropical Storm Bud
Quoting Jedkins01:



look closely for the error, I thought it was hilarious :) apparently every student got a copy of the this mistake too. loll


an "L" is missing in there :)
That is hilarious. Apparently they made a "public" apology for the error.
Quoting RussianWinter:
Hey all, I'd just like to announce that I'm transferring to FSU and be participating in their meteorology program. With the hurricane season beginning in about 8 days, I'm looking forward to hopefully staying up late on this blog and contributing.


Congrats! Best of luck to you!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
That is hilarious. Apparently they made a "public" apology for the error.


LOL

wat
686 Jedkins01: an 'L' is missing in there

Not when following in LBJ's "foot"steps.
Good night guys!
5 hours later and I'm still waiting for that eye to show up on satellite imagery that everyone said they saw

hurricane Bud the first of the Eastern North Pacific
Hurricane BUD Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240545
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Bud
14.5 N 107.7 W
Maximum Sustained Winds 75 mph
Moving North @ 6 mph

...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 PM PDT Wed May 23
Location: 14.5°N 107.7°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Unbelievable at the model consensus here.

GFS 00z run 96 hrs.



ECMWF 00z run 96 hrs.

At midnightGMT, Bud became a hurricane
EP 02 2012052400 140N 1077W 65 987 HU
EP 02 2012052406 147N 1076W 75 980 HU
Which made it a hurricane near sunset on the 23rd of May, local time
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
15:00 PM JST May 24 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (990 hPa) located at 19.6N 139.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 22.2N 139.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 24.1N 141.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 26.4N 144.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
bud winds going up to 80 mph soon..maybe eye coming soon to.
Bud up to 75 kt according to ATCF.
Thanks. Probably wouldna noticed the re-evaluation&alteration until after 12pmGMT
Quoting aspectre:
Thanks. Probably wouldna noticed the re-evaluation&alteration until after 12pmGMT


I know you love me. Everybody does.
Bud is definitely try to build up a good eyewall as we approach Dmax.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
anyone else see the ecmwf-oper??
I think we're going to see an eye pop out of Bud within the next few hours. The latest frame seems to hint at the beginnings of the center clearing out.
Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.


Bud could make it to major hurricane
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 24May6amGMT:
Bud's 24May12amGMT Position, MaximumSustainedWinds, MinimumPressure, and CycloneStatus have been re-evaluated&altered
from 14.0n107.8w : ~60knots(69mph)111k/h : 992millibars : TropicalStorm
. . . to 14.0n107.7w : ~65knots(75mph)120k/h : 987millibars : Hurricane

Its most recent (24May6amGMT) ATCF position was 14.7n107.6w
Its vector had changed from North at ~4.5mph(7.3k/h) to North at ~8.1mph(13k/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~65knots(75mph)120k/h to ~75knots(86mph)139k/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 987millibars to 980millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path... MZT is Mazatlan . PVR is PuertoVallarta
ZLO is Manzanillo . LZC is LazaroCardenas . ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo

The easternmost connected dot is where TropicalDepressionBud became TropicalStormBud
The next dot to the northwest on that kinked line is where TSBud became HurricaneBud
The southernmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent ATCF position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline of a continent or an inhabited island
On 24May6amGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over IslaMariaMadre in ~2days7hours from now

Copy&paste ajs-26.727n113.42w, lap-23.56n110.33w, sjd, mzt, tpq, pvr, zlo, lzc, zih, 10.2n102.6w, 10.8n103.6w, 11.7n104.6w, 12.6n105.6w, 12.9n106.6w, 13.1n107.5w, 13.6n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w-14.7n107.6w, 14.0n107.7w-21.575n106.58w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 10.2n102.6w and the first 14.0n107.7w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 14.0n107.7w,
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
Good morning. It will be a facinating mission this afternoon to see how strong he is.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 24/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BUD
C. 24/1415Z
D. 15.4N 107.7W
E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Morning everybody.

I'm not staying long this a.m., as I want to get on the road before heavy downpours begin here. I will try to get on for a few minutes from time to time once I get to work. But it does look like when it does begin to rain here [as opposed to light drizzle] it's going to be a lollapalooza of a day....

I also notice Bud's making a bid for a real hurricane at last.... looks like an eye feature has developed per the infrared loop.

Ya'll have a good one.

That is beautiful:

Here is the this morning's discussion of 94L by Crown Weather Services.

Link
Wow, Hurricane Bud went from 40 mph to 85 mph in just 12 hours... Impressive.
Big storms on the way today:



WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CAPPED GIVEN PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS STREAMING NEWD
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
CONTINUED SLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S F AS FAR WRN WI. MLCAPE COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MAY REACH INTO THE 500-1000 J PER KG RANGE AND...GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCED ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE /DEEPENING AROUND 1MB/HR BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z PER LATEST
PROGS/...EXPECT POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND FAST-MOVING STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
RATHER SMALL...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z AND OVER A RELATIVELY CONFINED
REGION FROM EXTREME ERN MN INTO WRN/NWRN WI. FORECAST CONDITIONS IN
THIS TIME AND AREA APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES
AND/OR FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES NEAR THE LOW SUPPORT THE CURRENT
CORRIDOR OF HIGH TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND AN UPGRADE TO GREATER
PROBABILITIES/CONFIDENCE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY AND A
CLOSE INSPECTION OF OVERNIGHT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE


The SPC now has threat areas highlighted for Sunday and Monday.
Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 +24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!
Thanks for the repeat, Taz. A lot of us have gotten used to the more relaxed situation during off season. Given the amount of traffic we had last year, I have a feeling Admin will be clamping down a bit more and a bit faster this year. IOW, I hope everybody enjoyed posting the OT pics and vids... but on Jun 1 u r likely to get into a few problems for them...

94L weakened overnight: Pressure up 2mb, winds down to 25 kts
713 CybrTeddy: Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.

Definitely not a Cat.2 but I PLUSed ya anyways for the purty picture.
Eye is now visible on Bud.
Good Morning...
Well it looks as I will deal with Beryl this weekend here in E C FL. Could be a strong tropical storm according to some of these models maybe even a minimal hurricane.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb/ 82.2kt



Bud is likely approaching Category 2 status at this time. May make a run at C3 before it begins to weaken. The good news is recon will catch the system at its absolute peak this afternoon.
Looks like C & N FL are in for a soaking according to the GFS 8 day precip accum.

Funny how 2004 was like this dryness wise across here then the tropical systems started coming and they never stopped. I remember picking up around 40" of rain from the 3 hurricanes that came thru C FL in 2004. I sure hope this isn't a repeat.
morning guys
I see 94L is pretty much out of the caribbean and bud is a hurricane...wait...what...bud is a hurricane wow what took the NHC so long

anyway so when is the GFS or the other models forecasting 95L (the other W carib low)?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
407 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND


SUN-WED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND HALTS THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO
RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY
. FROM THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST MORE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY AND HAS THE MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION OF A
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PENINSULA. IF THIS TYPE OF
TRACK HOLDS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS THEN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ELEVATED. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED...
AROUND 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND SYSTEM
.
Bud is a strong category 1 on its way of becoming a category 2. Very impressive and beautiful hurricane.


Also severe weather is something to watch today. 10% chance of tornadoes in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and the SPC is considering upgrading to a moderate risk.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:





DOOM!!!

JK. It actually could help Florida's drought situation quite a bit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






Hey buddy, how did you do on your exams. I bet you got A's right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






Man talk about drought relief! The drought is extremely bad around the area the models show this coming ashore.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey buddy, how did you do on your exams. I bet you got A's right?

Yep. Nearly made a 100% on both my English I and Biology I finals.
People say hi to 94L. Looks to have a nice circulation to it.

90-100mph next advisory is my bet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yep. Nearly made a 100% on both my English I and Biology I finals.


Great job!
Waiting for the intermediate advisory..

Quoting StormTracker2K:
People say hi to 94L. Looks to have a nice circulation to it.




Is the circulation already over the Florida straights?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
90mph it is.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Is the circulation already over the Florida straights?


Yeah it looks to be south of Key Largo.

Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!


Thanks for the reminder... Taz....
Interesting - Checking the Wunderblog Standards page

Link

It reads as follows:


------The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything.
Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.-------------


Maybe the "Members to express their opinions and ideas about NEARLY EVERYTHING", is confusing and should be changed to specify that it "should be Weather related"



Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah it looks to be south of Key Largo.




Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.
Been a while since I've seen a storm actually look decent on this ir image.

It tends to really bring out the ugliness in tropical systems.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.


winds are gusting between 23 & 26knts in and around the upper keys. This view is looking east toward South Beach.

I know people are excited about Bud becoming a hurricane..But what about future Beryl?.I herd that it could even become a minimal hurricane...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks for the reminder... Taz....
Interesting - Checking the Wunderblog Standards page

Link

It reads as follows:


------The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything.
Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.-------------


Maybe the "Members to express their opinions and ideas about NEARLY EVERYTHING", is confusing and should be changed to specify that it "should be Weather related"






Thank You
There will be a Moderate Risk of severe weather today for the area around west Wisconsin.

Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with a squall line, and tornadoes, some possibly strong, and hail are also possible.
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241200 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING OF PUNTA SAN TELMO IN WATCH/WARNING SECTION

...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE
STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
First visible will reveal a beautiful hurricane.



@washingtonian115: As for 94L, I am upping my chances to 70%. It looks very likely Beryl will form as a tropical storm off the southeast coastline this weekend and into next week.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


winds are gusting between 23 & 26knts in and around the upper keys. This view is looking east toward South Beach.



It Could become a tropical depression off the Florida coast on those warm gulf stream waters.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I know people are excited about Bud becoming a hurricane..But what about future Beryl?.I herd that it could even become a minimal hurricane...


I'm excited, although I live in South Florida, I think this is one of the most Intresting tracks I have ever seen.

The storm goes out to sea, is blocked, and heads southwest into north Florida/ Georgia.

When was the last time a real tropical system made a landfall north of cape caneveral and south of savvana georgia (fay doesn't count)
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.


no winds just heavy rain
Has anybody else noticed that the models have the storm center almost 200 miles too far west of the storms?
Some of that is because it is from 2am but not all of it.
Here's a webcam from key Largo

Quoting biff4ugo:
Has anybody else noticed that the models have the storm center almost 200 miles too far west of the storms?
Some of that is because it is from 2am but not all of it.

That's because it IS. Strong wind shear is affecting the disturbance right now, but should let up as it moves off the SE coast.
762,and 763 thanks for the response.This could spoil many beach goers plans.I was planning to go to Virginia beach but have decided to stick to the theme parks.
This here is US 1 and mile marker 116. This is some serious rain coming down on this shot.



US 1 and mile marker 102
Quoting washingtonian115:
762,and 763 thanks for the response.This could spoil many beach goers plans.I was planning to go to Virginia beach but have decided to stick to the theme parks.


The Ridge will block it before it gets that north, it will most likely become a tropical storm and then get shoved, SW like Alberto into georgia or north Florida.

Everyone south and Everyone north will be left out.


with this, Bud, and possibly Beryl, we will be busy
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


The Ridge will block it before it gets that north, it will most likely become a tropical storm and then get shoved, SW like Alberto into georgia or north Florida.

Everyone south and Everyone north will be left out.
Rip currents comes to mind...And i keep forgetting that its only May.Feels so much like late June.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
First visible will reveal a beautiful hurricane.



@washingtonian115: As for 94L, I am upping my chances to 70%. It looks very likely Beryl will form as a tropical storm off the southeast coastline this weekend and into next week.


With an IR like that, visible will be epic. And I'll probably win too! :D
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This here is US 1 and mile marker 116. This is some serious rain coming down on this shot.


Nah. I can see 6 or 7 power poles, at least. If it were one, maybe two, it would be serious rain.
waters plenty warm in the straights and in the bahamas
Quoting washingtonian115:
Rip currents comes to mind...And i keep forgetting that its only May.Feels so much like late June.


Unusually Active. I agree, but maybe we will have a less active later part of the season.
Quoting islander101010:
waters plenty warm in the straights and in the bahamas



Could become a TD over the gulf stream tommorow.
CMC also shows a strong tropical system here off of St. Augustine.


Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Unusually Active. I agree, but maybe we will have a less active later part of the season.
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.
Radar for S FL
Link




Upper category 2 anyone?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
Yes I agree.More land will be affected.I mean storms will recurve..they do every season..but not like they did in 10,and 11.
From Crown Weather.

Tropical/Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Likely To Develop This Weekend Off Of US Southeast Coast:It is looking more and more likely that we will have Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm Beryl located off of the Southeastern coast of the United States during the Memorial Day weekend. Should this happen, it will be the first time we have had two named tropical storms before June 1st since 1887.

Low pressure, designated Invest 94-L, was located near the south coast of Cuba this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper convection firing in an area between Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba, however, the convection is not organized or consolidated. Additionally, satellite loops showed that most of the convection is occurring on the eastern side of the low pressure system.

As of early this morning, wind shear values across the northern Caribbean are running between 20 and 30 knots and I do not think we will see any type of development from it until it is north of the Bahamas just off of the US Southeast coast on Friday and into Saturday.

All of the global model suite is now in agreement surrounding both the development of a sub-tropical or tropical storm this weekend off of the US Southeast coast and the track of this storm which looks to be southwestward into northeastern Florida or far southern Georgia on Monday morning. It should be pointed out that both the GFS and European model guidance are forecasting a storm that is quite a bit larger in size than Alberto. (EDIT: That's a loose statement)

The European model guidance, which is my forecast model of choice, is fairly aggressive with development of what could be Beryl. It forecasts a southwestward track this weekend and forecasts this storm to make landfall very near Saint Augustine and Palm Coast in northeast Florida on Monday morning. From there, the European model forecasts that this storm will come inland into northern Florida during the day Monday before tracking northeastward back into the Atlantic just south and east of the North Carolina coast during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as an eastward moving frontal system picks it up.

So, my thinking is that Invest 94-L will track north-northeastward today and tonight from the south coast of Cuba and across the northwestern Bahamas. Most of the moisture and convection with this system is on the eastern side, so most of the Bahamas are in for a pretty stormy day with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms while most of the Florida peninsula should stay fairly dry, although the normal scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida this afternoon.

By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Invest 94-L spin up into a tropical entity and I suspect it will be Tropical Storm Beryl as it first tracks north and then westward just off of the Georgia coast. Tropical Storm to be Beryl is then expected to push southwestward along the Georgia coast on Sunday before coming ashore in northeastern Florida near Saint Augustine and Palm Coast on Memorial Day.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
think your right but not sure about 94 got a ways to go
I am not complaining, that Florida will get some rain.
It just looks much tamer on other radar systems.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILL AS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
And the model keeps moving it farther and farther east over where you can see the storms already are.
Quoting yqt1001:




Upper category 2 anyone?

Looks better than Irene ever did...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I agree.More land will be affected.I mean storms will recurve..they do every season..but not like they did in 10,and 11.


Agreed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks better than Irene ever did...


Irene never looked really good, but it did havesome really low pressure
We are close to having the first northern hemisphere Hurricane of 2012.



No chance this puppy develops today or tomorrow...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We are close to having the first northern hemisphere Hurricane of 2012.



Weve had two?
Quoting weatherh98:


Weve had two?


I'm guessing there should've been a 'major' in his comment.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'm guessing there should've been a 'major' in his comment.


TA13... Explain yourself...


Hes trucking it
if 94 makes the move west and not just stall out all of central fl. should get heavy rain the low should drag deep moisture out of the deep tropics
ATCF confirms that Bud is indeed a Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 270, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D,
Quoting islander101010:
if 94 makes the move west and not just stall out all of central fl. should get heavy rain the low should drag deep moisture out of the deep tropics


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents
Day 3 of misery in Nassau. already 2 inches at least has fallen.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.
That is my guess also.. El-Nino does not have much effect on November storms. They usually form in areas where El-nino has little or no impact on them. So we could get a storm or two in November. Nino mostly affects the MDR .
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF confirms that Bud is indeed a Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 270, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D,


So thats 103.7 mph so its 105mph getting close to cat 3
Quoting weatherh98:


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents

That's correct.
GFS at 72 hours:




at 96 hours:

Quoting weatherh98:


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents


94L is expected to develope under the upper trough with very little wind shear as it approaches FL from the east.

Almost.....

Quoting Grothar:
GFS at 72 hours:




at 96 hours:



Almost make you want to cringe if we have this set up come July thru Sept.
It looks like the GFS wants to keep 94L over Northern Florida, Georgia and Alabama for a few days.


Here is the animated link:

Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:


94L is expected to develope under the upper trough with very little wind shear as it approaches FL from the east.



Im aware, he was just saying it if it went west it would bring florida rain, and if it did go west it wuld be torn apart
I haven't seen this posted so here it is.Up to 20%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE KEYS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS SO FAR REMAINED OVER
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SOME OF THIS HEAVIER
CONVECTION WILL SOON AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND PERHAPS BROWARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOW THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREAS
BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG. DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Almost make you want to cringe if we have this set up come July thru Sept.


It could be a wet summer for some. As Crown weather wrote, if this forms into Beryl, it would be the first time since 1887 that two storms formed before June 1.
Up to 20%
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Almost.....



atcf has it at 105 mph
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I haven't seen this posted so here it is.Up to 20%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG


You just beat me to it:)
Fresh JMA

Bud is a Cat 2? I feel so smart right now! Map created when Bud was first a Tropical Depression:


The track is off, ( I initialized him too far east which took the track off 50 miles) but I still said he would make Cat 2 even after he failed to strengthen for a while and the NHC stopped saying he would make hurricane strength!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE KEYS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS SO FAR REMAINED OVER
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SOME OF THIS HEAVIER
CONVECTION WILL SOON AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND PERHAPS BROWARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOW THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREAS
BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG. DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.


Thanks, Geoff. I'm flying into Fort Lauderdale today.
Quoting weatherh98:


atcf has it at 105 mph


I meant the sun is almost up over it lol, but yeah, not far off major status either.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Circulation appears to be south of Key Largo and convection is strengthing to the north and east, most likely due to the warm waters of the gulf stream coupled with day time heating.

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Geoff. I'm flying into Fort Lauderdale today.


That solid rain band is creeping up the coast..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Llueve
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Circulation appears to be south of Key Largo and convection is strengthing to the north and east, most likely due to the warm waters of the gulf stream coupled with day time heating.



Gulf stream i guess day time heating not yet and by the time day time heating comes along its not long before DMIN hits
Lovely.

I betchya that the nhc upped the chances to 20% becuse it looks like its seperaating from the front
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.

morning!!,looks to me based on analysis that any faux center of 94l just above the surface is very close to the Key West area, and is getting tore up by high sheer values,that should change in approx 36-48 hrs as a ull over central gom right now moves off the se coastline and any llc heads ne towards the same area,imo saturday will be the day of development
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


That solid rain band is creeping up the coast..


Go ahead, make my day :)
Hey all.

I noticed that there is a large amount of dry air in the GOM area, but, I don't think that it will affect 94L much because it has a huge amount of moisture in and around it. The trough that came of the East Coast fueled it with a huge amount of moisture.



Take a good look, in all the satellite loops you don't see the disturbance losing much thunderstorm activity. Lack of the bands and moisture is what really destroyed Alberto.
Wow, looking more and more that Beryl is on way. Let's hope North Florida can get some beneficial rains out of it. South Florida has certainly getting their fair share.
Circulation is evident on the Miami Radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&ri d=AMX&loop=yes

The rain field also looks like it is expanding.
Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, make my day :)


Good luck with your flight...
What a difference a day makes. Here is the ASCAT pass from last night showing a much improved and well defined low with 94L. Good thing this isn't sitting in low shear in the South Central Caribbean


Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, make my day :)


I am scared of Flying in bad weather, Specially if i have a window seat. Severe Turbulence makes me nervous. So i hope, that their will be a lull in the weather, so you can land.

But it seems that their will be many delays across the busy airports.
Quoting Grothar:
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.



GFS persists this blocking pattern through 144. Hopefully it doesn't decide to stick around for a while, that would be most troublesome. Granted, steering should be on a case by case basis but longer term patterns can be derived. Image below is the same setup that paved the 04 landfalls with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes region.

Its trying to break off of the southern low, and the vorticity looks even better. actually pretty surprising
Umm, wow!!!!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 15:10:27 N Lon : 107:00:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.9mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

For those that don't know, a raw estimate of 6.3 is at category four strength.
Quoting Grothar:
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.



Well, this tells us why 94L is on a heading of NNE and therefore likely to be trapped by the building high and forced off to the West.No open door to the East.

moisture just starting to wrap around 94l center,then baaammmm 50-60kts of sheer,not gonna happen today,im thinking beryl starts off sub tropical and fairly quickly transitions tropical sometime saturday night/sunday
Quoting kmanislander:
What a difference a day makes. Here is the ASCAT pass from last night showing a much improved and well defined low with 94L. Good thing this isn't sitting in low shear in the South Central Caribbean




Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.
Quoting stillwaiting:
moisture just starting to wrap around 94l center,then baaammmm 50-60kts of sheer,not gonna happen today,im thinking beryl starts off sub tropical and fairly quickly transitions tropical sometime saturday night/sunday


try 60 to 70
South of Key Largo, FL



Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Thu, 24 May 2012 13:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 26.0 kt gusting to 29.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 80.2 F
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.


Half way up the Florida straits based upon visible imagery and close to a heading towards the Southern tip of Florida.
Quoting Grothar:


It could be a wet summer for some. As Crown weather wrote, if this forms into Beryl, it would be the first time since 1887 that two storms formed before June 1.
Absolutely..An early start to the rainy season, or a drenching early season storm can have serious consequences for Florida. It has happened many times before, and will certainly happen again. In 1947 U.S.1 was closed when the Fort Lauderdale Hurricane dumped huge amounts of rain on already saturated soil. Some neighborhoods were under 6 feet of water. The same thing happened in 1948. The damage would have been much worse, but previous storms had already affected the region....Excerpt Wiki..Florida

At the storm's first landfall, an 11-foot (3.4 m) storm surge was reported along the Florida coast. Large stretches of State Highway A1A between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach were washed out by the wave action.[12] The Boca Raton Airport, known then as Boca Raton Army Air Field, received significant damage from the storm, reporting $3 million in damages.[13] The hurricane was unusually large: some reports indicate hurricane-force winds may have extended 120 miles (190 km) out from the eye center (from Cape Canaveral to Coral Gables).

At Lake Okeechobee a 20 foot (6 m) storm surge was reported along the south shore between Clewiston and Moore Haven, nearly overrunning the Herbert Hoover Dike that surrounded the lake. Unlike in the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, the dike held and a much larger catastrophe were averted. However, this 1947 storm prompted a further strengthening of the dike in the 1960s.

The storm was also slow-moving (about 10 mph) and dropped a prodigious amount of rain over the area–records for single-month rainfall were set in many areas, some of which still stand today (others were broken in the 1992 or 2004 seasons), and flooding was among the worst in southern Florida's history.[14] The storm killed 17 people in Florida.[15] The hurricane damaged Citrus crops in the Fort Pierce area, and losses were estimated at $4,000,000.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.

Just came off the coast of Cuba.

Quoting weatherh98:


try 60 to 70


Click to view full size image.
Quoting kmanislander:


Half way up the Florida straits based upon visible imagery and close to a heading towards the Southern tip of Florida.


Thanks, Im not sure how to post an image correctly, but i'll try.



Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



Present latitude is 23.8 which is close to mid way across the straits
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



That's a pretty impressive circulation given the state it's been in for the last 24 hours.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



Thanks, already some 25kts wind being reported in the keys and Bahamas.

Have a nice morning folks.
Quoting kmanislander:
Have a nice morning folks.


You to kman
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like the GFS wants to keep 94L over Northern Florida, Georgia and Alabama for a few days.


Here is the animated link:

Link


GFS is an outlier, the rest keep it dwindling in the southwest Atlantic/just off the southeast coast.
Quoting kmanislander:
Have a nice morning folks.


you too kman

Click for loop.
EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU,
Interesting loop. HWRF takes 94L into SC after a slight trip up the coast. Believable?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting loop. HWRF takes 94L into SC after a slight trip up the coast.


Saw that, it would "crap-out" the end of our Memorial Day weekend here, but we need the rain in the Lowcountry - Bring It On !!
Heavy Rain and Some decent wind (Webcam Shaking) at Coconut Grove, FL

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/?c am=miamibeach5

864. afj3

North Miami Beach: (Rain and Webcam shaking)

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/?c am=miamibeach5


"crap-out"


Is this a TV met term or do you use it here to make you look big and smart sport?

Meanwhile off the coast of Florida:

94 likes the deep and warm water of the fl. straights seems on the upswing despite the shear
Surface Analysis:





hmmmmm interesting packing 35 mph winds

Link
Quoting chrisdscane:




hmmmmm interesting packing 35 mph winds

Link


Once the low becomes closed, it will have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression.

But with 50knts+ of shear at the moment, highly unlikely.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)
Quoting Patrap:
"crap-out"


Is this a TV met term or do you use it here to make you look big and smart sport?



A little bit of both - It's actually in the English dictionary according to Presslord, found just above the entry "the carolinas."
Quoting Grothar:
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)


The Rain will reach there too
Convergence is not bad as of 12Z:

Quoting Grothar:
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)


Have a safe flight Gro.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.


South of Key Largo, heading north with a small east component. Possible
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.
,a nne movement across the glades imo,sheer's giving 94l no chance atm,should provide for more precip than currently forcast over the central and southern peninsula imo,its analyized a bit to east imo,its much closer to the area just north of the kw
its been wet in the everglades wont hurt the circulation much
25.0N 80.4W


882. LBAR
Charleston, SC NWS is always descriptive.

THE FORECAST GETS MUCH TRICKIER ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS GIVE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EVOLVE. THEY ALL RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRAPPING THE LOW AND
PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. AT THIS
TIME...I PREFER A GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THAT WOULD PUT US ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY... AS WELL AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE
CLOUDS WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO I ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

MY MAIN REASONING FOR PREFERRING THE GFS IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION
CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THE NAM SOLUTION TO
WORK OUT...THERE WOULD ALREADY HAVE TO BE A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND I DO NOT SEE THAT
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. ALSO...THE LATEST ECMWF IS JUST COMING IN...AND
SO FAR IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS THAN THE NAM.

THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WELL DEVELOP A WARM CORE AS IT
MOVES BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THE LATEST MODIS SST IMAGES SHOW
WATER TEMPS IN THE EXPECTED PATH AROUND 80F...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Meanwhile off the coast of Florida:

Ahh, the Boca Pavilion. I miss that place. I'm in Ormond By The Sea now and we have a waist high swell out of the south but Boca has a small wave coming in out of the north.
15 days till utter chaos

"I give it 15 days. If the European Union doesn't release the loans it has promised by then, there will be scenes of utter chaos here," said Dimitris Karageorgiou, secretary general of the Panhellenic Pharmaceutical Association.
Pinpointing the circulation is harder than it seems.. I'm Guessing it's now due south of Key Largo, but I'm judging by radar. So I'm not sure.
Quoting OneDrop:
Ahh, the Boca Pavilion. I miss that place. I'm in Ormond By The Sea now and we have a waist high swell out of the south but Boca has a small wave coming in out of the north.


Looks like the Surf is picking up.
Nice coverage of 94L this morning everybody, thanks.

Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.
.Quoting afj3:



Their is a Heavy Rain band that has just been parked north of key largo for three hours, with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour.

I bet their is some flooding there.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.

Conditions will be MUCH more favorable for tropical development by the weekend as the system pulls north of the subtropical jet stream underneath an upper level low. I'd anything, their current percentage is /conservative/ as 48 hours takes us to early Saturday morning at which time we will probably be dealing with a well defined system.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Pinpointing the circulation is harder than it seems.. I'm Guessing it's now due south of Key Largo, but I'm judging by radar. So I'm not sure.
,use the visible satellite,the radar can be decieving when dealing with locating any llc,any llc is clearly evident just north east of kw
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.


Shear is forecast to drop fairly substantially when 94L makes it up to the east of Florida/SC, and with low shear, dry air won't be such a huge problem, particularly if it gets over the gulf stream. There's also fairly substantial model support that a deep enough low will develop. Not gonna happen just yet, and 20% for the next 48 hours perhaps is a little generous, but in 72 hours, conditions will improve.
Correction: The Center of Circulation of 94L is to the Southwest of Key Largo, to the SouthEast of Ismalarda. It's moving NorthNorthEast.

894. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



12 UTC is 3.5 hours ago I think, it's moved NNE since then, nearly at the FL keys.
Quoting MahFL:


12 UTC is 3.5 hours ago I think, it's moved NNE since then, nearly at the FL keys.


About to cross over into Florida bay/ Everglades.
896. MahFL
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.


The Special Tropical Weather Outlook states that condictions will improve in the next 2 days. It's not going to form in the next 59 minutes, so be patient......
897. MahFL
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


About to cross over into Florida bay/ Everglades.


Hey, it better back up a bit, not to make me incorrect !
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Now wondering if this low doesn't end up just west of lake o.
i have any llc just south of everglades national park atm


If Bud could wrap that convection all the way around the eye then we could be dealing with a major hurricane...
902. MahFL
I also think shear is a lot less that the 60 or 70 reported.
NEW BLOG!!!
We got about 2 feet of rain in the past 3 days from the low now heading your way.