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Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on August 01, 2011

Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.

Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.

The Heat Is On (Again)

Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.


Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.

Angela

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Still too early to rule out the Gulf. Katrina started from a higher position, was South East of Florida and still went into the Gulf.

It is too early to be certain on track.
2502. aquak9
(runs outside to check ant hills)
2503. angiest
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Do yall remember Ike and Katrina lol


Who?




;)
2504. Patrap
Do yall remember Ike and Katrina lol


Indeed,,and Laughter isnt one of my memories about either
Quoting presslord:


Carolinas


gee thanks, have had that feeling for days now... u really know how to make a girls night don't ya! said some time ago that the high was gonna flatten out
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So is it the shallower the system the more disruption the mountains cause or deeper?


The taller the mountains the more disruptive. Cuba did a good number on Dennis, but he was still able to regenerate in the Gulf. The mountains were moderately tall, but Ernesto, crossed over the Western tip of Hispanola, where there is one very tall mountain range, and never recovered.
Any chance Emily will make into the Gulf? I keep seeing posts that the weakness that will pull her north may not be that weak after all. Won't that let Emily go further west? Since Katrina I watch the tropics ALOT more and love reading all of your comments.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Bottom line - formation of a depression not imminent - maybe within a day or two, but not this afternoon.

Dr. Knabb a few hours ago on FB. Ooooopppps.
Epic Fail, I wish I had his job!
Quoting aquak9:
(runs outside to check ant hills)
Oh my God, I've been a having an ant problem these past 2 weeks in my backyard. LOL, I'm not kidding.

South Florida, put the shutters up.
2511. Mucinex
As an experienced intuition-caster this cone could be very good news for SFL.

It in agreement with 2 of the laws of intuition-casting:

1. Where ever the NHC points the Cone of Doom(for a U.S. landfall) on a first advisory is guaranteed to be the one place the storm will not make landfall.

2. No storm, no matter how strong, makes it over Hispanola without disruption.

2512. bwat
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What this blog however is good for is providing the CORRECT information for people who need it or for those who are in evac areas. Time and time again we see people saying they want storms to come here or there, lets provide the information and updates that this blog requires and keep all the wishing and wanting to a minimum.

This can and will become a dangerous storm, lets provide those in the path of it with the information they need so they can evacuate when ordered.


Amen, there are some people who read this blog, "example: me :)", who rely on this blog as a source of information. Then again after a few years of lurking, you kinda get figure out who to listen to. cough....levi...cough. :)
2514. breald
Quoting presslord:


Chapin is nice...was through there yesterday


Yep nice town that has grown so much. Lots of new restaurants and shopping that wasn't here a few years ago. The only bad thing, you are about 11 miles outside of Columbia, so getting to work is at least 30 miles one way. Oh well, I couldn't take those long northern winters.
Quoting breald:


Don't say that, I am currently in SC.


LOL
The first thing I see.

Press said Carolinas?

Going to write this on my calendar right now.
Definitely a storm for the record books!
BPZ20 KNHC 012334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting Patrap:
Do yall remember Ike and Katrina lol


Indeed,,and Laughter isnt one of my memories about either


Well i just dont want people to get too banked on a landfall location these models can change drastically they have before..
2519. aquak9
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh my God, I've been a having an ant problem these past 2 weeks in my backyard. LOL, I'm not kidding.

South Florida, put the shutters up.

errr...real sorry to hear that. And I ain't jokin',
2520. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh my God, I've been a having an ant problem these past 2 weeks in my backyard. LOL, I'm not kidding.

South Florida, put the shutters up.


never discount critter casting...
latest HWRF calling for it to miss FL.
Quoting breald:


Yep nice town that has grown so much. Lots of new restaurants and shopping that wasn't here a few years ago. The only bad thing, you are about 11 miles outside of Columbia, so getting to work is at least 30 miles one way. Oh well, I couldn't take those long northern winters.


I'm frequently in Columbia...we'll have to connect
2524. jonelu
Quoting weatherxtreme:
I am in NE Florida but in reality not getting too panicked just yet as lots of times these models will change and probably will in the next day or so.
Im in SE FL and I agree....we still have time and Id like to see a couple more model runs before Im going start to prep. From this angle a slight change in direction can make a huge difference.
Quoting Patrap:
Do yall remember Ike and Katrina lol


Indeed,,and Laughter isnt one of my memories about either


From the looks of your demeaning posts, I have a feeling laughter isn't something you do anymore nowadays...

;) (that makes it better right)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh my God, I've been a having an ant problem these past 2 weeks in my backyard. LOL, I'm not kidding.

South Florida, put the shutters up.


Don;t you live in an apartment building/highrise?
2528. xcool
Now it's wait and see.
The current track forecast reminds me of...

Fay.
Quoting IKE:
Paging all Florida-casters....services are needed ASAP....this is not a drill....bring shower curtains....thanks.....




Are there any models still taking this out to sea? or is that just fishcasting nonsense?
Quoting tiggeriffic:


gee thanks, have had that feeling for days now... u really know how to make a girls night don't ya! said some time ago that the high was gonna flatten out
Evening... I can vouch for that!
I still see people asking the question "is it going to get into the gulf?" I don't think it will but just an opinion. The westcasters haven't given up yet lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
TS today cat 5 on friday


Hey Taz, plz don't say that kinda scary!
Quoting NavarreMark:
Advice to posters.

If your post is more than 4 lines, its probably not going to be read. Ya should be able to make your point in less.

Just sayin.

I
100%
agree
with
you


(c*%p)
Quoting doorman79:


Don;t you live in an apartment building/highrise?
Last year I did, moved to a house in Coral Gables early this year.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hey Taz, plz don't say that kinda scary!



ok
Quoting bajelayman2:
Still too early to rule out the Gulf. Katrina started from a higher position, was South East of Florida and still went into the Gulf.

It is too early to be certain on track.

uh no. It was not south east of Florida it formed just east of Florida and went right over miami dade
will we have 5 name storms now
Any storm that crosses Hispaniola gets destroyed. I've never seen anything survive unless the center stays mostly off its coast. Considering how poorly this storm is organized I see the same fate
Nite all. Fair wishes to those islands getting awash now and to those to the West, whether Florida or Louisiana, this thing could go anywhere at this time.

Nite. Stay safe.
Models can and will change no need to panic if your in the cone 3 days out good chance you need to get ready!!
2546. rod2635
July Forecast Results (Forecast posted in June)

1. Named Storm Formation

One during 7/17-21 - Correct, Brett

One on 7/31 - Emily you left me at the altar
by one day

Total of 2 named storms - missed this big, total
of 4 formed

August Forecast

1. Five Named Storms
1 tropical storm
1 Cat 1
2 Cat 2's
1 Cat 3

2. One East Coast US Landfall

Quoting tiggeriffic:


hey ya Press...finally got around to getting the season state park pass...have really enjoyed going down to Edisto...was thinking of camping this weekend...but on second thought...maybe not....


hey girl! I love edisto
Quoting weatherxtreme:
I still see people asking the question "is it going to get into the gulf?" I don't think it will but just an opinion. The westcasters haven't given up yet lol
and unfortunately neither has the mother ridge over the Central US.
Quoting bwat:


Amen, there are some people who read this blog, "example: me :)", who rely on this blog as a source of information. Then again after a few years of lurking, you kinda get figure out who to listen to. cough....levi...cough. :)


Good advice for the blog. However, I would advise any citizens in the path of a storm to not pay any attention to the comments in this blog. Pay attention to the NHC and local authorities.
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas


2551. OUSHAWN
Anyone who has any knowledge of the tropics and how these storms react should already be expecting for that track and cone to be changing. The track,IMO,has a high chance...80 percent...of changing within the next 48 hrs. Whether it changes more to the east or west is yet to be seen...but if I were a betting man I would certainly bet on it changing.
2552. spathy
Quoting IKE:

Emily updates needed. Coffee brewing in the commissary.


Hi Ike.
I was leaning towards Popcorn for the main course.
Possibly a Freska chaser.

I hate lifting those darned 3/4" boards to batten down the hatches at Moms house.
At my house I have the metal panels.

My Mom always wants to wait till the last minute because the rule is....
If I board it up?

It stays up till the end of season.

Lots and lots of large areas of glass.

I so wish that Masking tape actually worked!

But the cone of DOOM WILL CHANGE!

Tigger I am staying at Edisto Beach this week on Vacation. Live in N. Chas.
2555. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


Sir, yes, sir!

Ankle bracelet is slowing me down. I still have probation to serve out.
LOL.
if you make your hurricane plans based on info ya get from a blog....well....you're stuck on stupid....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh my God, I've been a having an ant problem these past 2 weeks in my backyard. LOL, I'm not kidding.

South Florida, put the shutters up.


What r the ants doing? It's just kinda nice to know.do u all think this will become a hurricane? A little one or may medium size. I mean it really don't have alot of time to get any bigger does it, with the island it's gonna be rubbing up next to.

sheri
2558. bwat
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas


After years of lurking, you also learn not to ever trust one rouge model. :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok


Tks Taz, a cat 1-2 not so scary depending, but cat 3-5 frightful!
2560. Levi32
The biggest step in Emily's evolution which can't be known is how much she will weaken from crossing Hispaniola, which she will most likely do. That island can completely destroy some storms. Weaker ones coming in can have a better chance at strengthening on the other side if they survive, though, whereas hurricanes making the crossing rarely strengthen afterwards.
2561. IKE

Quoting spathy:


Hi Ike.
I was leaning towards Popcorn for the main course.
Possibly a Freska chaser.

I hate lifting those darned 3/4" boards to batten down the hatches at Moms house.
At my house I have the metal panels.

My Mom always wants to wait till the last minute because the rule is....
If I board it up?

It stays up till the end of season.

Lots and lots of large areas of glass.

I so wish that Masking tape actually worked!

But the cone of DOOM WILL CHANGE!

Yeah...it probably will.
2562. breald
Quoting presslord:


I'm frequently in Columbia...we'll have to connect


Defiantly. Send me a WU mail the next time you are going to be in the area.
My question is this, what happened to the trough that was forecast to weaken the ridge and allow for the storm to move out to sea. What has changed in that realm of the forecast, because recently it seems that the models are trending farther west when it pulls off of the Haiti area.

Btw for Presslord: What is the contingency plan right now for the relief base that you have in Haiti as for supply demands.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas




ugh
Is that high over texas a permanent resident for the rest of the hurricane season?
2569. spathy
Quoting aquak9:

errr...real sorry to hear that. And I ain't jokin',


Ok who has the Turtle Nesting stats?
Quoting rescueguy:
Tigger I am staying at Edisto Beach this week on Vacation. Live in N. Chas.


we were gonna go camp this coming weekend...rethinking it for now...wait and see, would rather make sure my stuff is done than spend a weekend sweating to have a storm hit, lose power and spend a week still sweating...and thanks to PRESSLORD for saying the CAROLINAS :P
Quoting breald:


I am actually far enough away from the coast in Chapin. I am relocating here. :)


I grew up in Chapin, small world

Live in NMB now and my folks are vacationing at our place in Edisto Beach this week too
Quoting tiggeriffic:


never discount critter casting...
The cockroach in my cubbard says it's too soon to tell but preppin' just in case....
2575. TX2FL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZamEoP-oWw

In the cone again.
Quoting Tazmanian:
with low wind shear well some what we could be looking at a march stronger storm then forcast


Lets not forget about hot waters!
2577. FLdewey
The DOOMCON has been moved to my blog to avoid dropping the soap.

Man I love being in the cone and I am top dead center. Too bad it always moves. :-(
1686. WeatherNerdPR 10:09 PM GMT on August 01, 2011 +1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
XXL/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.03N/61.08W

Huh?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2165


i always call it first always have always will
right after the call renumber follows suit
2579. rod2635
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas




Just where I have it down the road
2581. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
My question is this, what happened to the trough that was forecast to weaken the ridge and allow for the storm to move out to sea. What has changed in that realm of the forecast, because recently it seems that the models are trending farther west when it pulls off of the Haiti area.

Btw for Presslord: What is the contingency plan right now for the relief base that you have in Haiti as for supply demands.


The trough is still there, and can be seen entering the scene currently over the eastern United States. The models overestimated the trough initially, which they have done a lot this year, and Emily took longer than expected to develop. Both of these things have resulted in the farther west track that we now have forecasted.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas




uh oh!
Quoting bwat:


Amen, there are some people who read this blog, "example: me :)", who rely on this blog as a source of information. Then again after a few years of lurking, you kinda get figure out who to listen to. cough....levi...cough. :)
+1 million!
Emily is moving almost due west if I see correctly. It looks like in the last hour or so she gained a burst of rotation.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
My question is this, what happened to the trough that was forecast to weaken the ridge and allow for the storm to move out to sea. What has changed in that realm of the forecast, because recently it seems that the models are trending farther west when it pulls off of the Haiti area.

Btw for Presslord: What is the contingency plan right now for the relief base that you have in Haiti as for supply demands.


shipping into haiti is a constantly evolving process....we'll just have to deal with haiti as events dictate
Quoting presslord:
if you make your hurricane plans based on info ya get from a blog....well....you're stuck on stupid....


depends on who ya listen to Press....some I trust, some I dont...when you, stormjunkie and a select others use the "C" word...i think of you as EF HUTTON....i tend to listen
LOL Ike!
2588. JGreco
Quoting MississippiWx:


Wow!!!!!Look at those temperatures in the Eastern Gulf just South of the Panhandle. All I have to say is please "the Spaghetti model Gods trend East....far East..." Emily would just explode over those waters:o
2589. TX2FL
Quoting rod2635:


Just where I have it down the road


News here in NC was all over it.
SPECIAL STATEMENT:

NHC has upgraded 91L to Tropical Storm Emily with winds of minimal TS force of 40mph.

TS Emily is still a weak system at this time and not well-organized. Still forecasting a persistent path to the west in the short term south of Hispanola. The trough expected to develop over the Eastern US will not be deep enough to pick up Emily given it's more southern track it is forecasted to make now allowing high pressure to build back in in the wake of this trough during the Thursday/Friday time frame.

Next update will be as scheduled this evening at 9:45PM
What are the chances that Emily DOES NOT track over the entire island of Hispaniola, and just slides through the east or south?
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Is that high over texas a permanent resident for the rest of the hurricane season?
Been over Texas for 2 years now!
Someone should read the last ten or twelve posts and tell me this is a serious blog.
2594. breald
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


I grew up in Chapin, small world


Oh cool. Small world indeed.
Quoting Patrap:
Is Emily Annular ?

Will Gov. Scott charge extra for tolls if a EVac is ordered ?


How will Emily Impact Dolphin Football Training Camp...?

Thanx n advance,






lolol
that last one is true! That's what they'll be talking about on sports talk radio. The comment about Scott is sad but true.
2596. bwat
Quoting vortextrance:


Good advice for the blog. However, I would advise any citizens in the path of a storm to not pay any attention to the comments in this blog. Pay attention to the NHC and local authorities.
Agreed! Just saying there are a few very well educated people here. If you know who to listen to, you can get a good feel on what the NHC is gonna say. As you know when you have a storm that could possibly be comming your way, you want the most up to date infor you can get. 3 hours at the time just dont cut it! Lol! But none the less, very good advice.
I live in Key West. So far, for the year, we have barely squeeked in 1/3 of our annual rainfall. We are desparate for rain. There's an invasive bug called 'white fly' multiplying in huge numbers and killing our native plants and many exotic palms. They devour entire trees leaving a sticky white gooey mess behind (and below ). We just need a nice TS to help was this away. Emily may be our answer though I think she is going to track East of us.
2598. xcool
newwwwwwwwwwww blogggggggggggggggg
2599. IKE
NEW BLOG
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....perhaps her next trick will be to go through the Hebert Box,
and MISS Florida!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....perhaps her next trick will be to go through the Hebert Box,
and MISS Florida!
HEY, how about right turn brtween PR and DR, then out to sea? I'd like that one even better....
The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


What r the ants doing? It's just kinda nice to know.do u all think this will become a hurricane? A little one or may medium size. I mean it really don't have alot of time to get any bigger does it, with the island it's gonna be rubbing up next to.

sheri

Sadly, I have no ant problem this year. I do have a hive of yellow jackets, in the back yard. Maybe i should poke around and see, if they are annoyed, or nervous. Will report back, after the trip to the Emergency Room.
Looks like we may see our first hurricane of the Atlantic season with Emily.
If you're reading this...it means your on the old blog. There's a new blog.
2606. Jax82
imma thinkin this little girl has gotta lotta land to contend with in the next few days. No tellin where she'll go and where she'll blow.
Never been impressed with Martinique radar...... but here it is anyway! LOL

Link
we can talk live about the t.s here
Sometimes storms, bring joy to people...



On March 19th and 20th of 2008 an intense storm off the Canadian Maritimes blew a swell into Puerto Rico the likes of which had not been seen since February 2, 1999. Tres Palmas in Rincon was the place to be.....

Photo by Steve Fitzpatrick

2613. trey33
Quoting seafarer459:

Sadly, I have no ant problem this year. I do have a hive of yellow jackets, in the back yard. Maybe i should poke around and see, if they are annoyed, or nervous. Will report back, after the trip to the Emergency Room.


A neighbor just ran thru our backyard looking for his pit bull on the loose... wonder if that means anything?
I'm in Tampa.
Quoting trey33:


A neighbor just ran thru our backyard looking for his pit bull on the loose... wonder if that means anything?
I'm in Tampa.


It means you didn't go to the NEEEWWWW BLOGGGGGG
Quoting thewindman:
Any storm that crosses Hispaniola gets destroyed. I've never seen anything survive unless the center stays mostly off its coast. Considering how poorly this storm is organized I see the same fate



Yep, no storms survive Haiti/DR crossing. . . except alot of storms like Frederic

Link
kinda looks like the hurricane dennis dosent it?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Sometimes storms, bring joy to people...



On March 19th and 20th of 2008 an intense storm off the Canadian Maritimes blew a swell into Puerto Rico the likes of which had not been seen since February 2, 1999. Tres Palmas in Rincon was the place to be.....

Photo by Steve Fitzpatrick

that's a nice wave
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I may have missed it, anybody want to post the NHC track forecast?


2622. leddyed
Quoting Jax82:
imma thinkin this little girl has gotta lotta land to contend with in the next few days. No tellin where she'll go and where she'll blow.

I'm with you, Jax. Speculation at this point is just that, speculation. I'll keep listening to the real experts as she moves westward.
hmmmm someone earlier had advertised a crow buffet for those who said 91Lwouldgo strait to ts,welll,welll,well....looks like someones eating crow for dinner and leftover for breakfesst tomorrow,lol
Getting ready for 11 PM advisory...
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG
Older 5 Day Irene forecasts.

I'd like to make GIF movie of the 5 day forecast gifs.

Started saving them but there must be an archive somewhere to get charts for last few days.

Anyone know where older Irene forecasts might be?

thanks