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Invest 91L more organized, but has little time to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on April 22, 2011

Hurricane season is more than a month away, but we have a tropical disturbance (91L) typical of what one might see in June or November. 91L is spinning over the waters a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, and has improved considerably in organization since yesterday, thanks to a drop in wind shear. The latest SHIPS model output is showing shear of 40 - 55 knots over 91L, but shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is showing lower shear values of 20 - 30 knots over the main circulation center and to 91L's north, where the heaviest thunderstorms are. The system has a warm core at low levels, but a trough of low pressure lies over the storm at upper levels, and this trough is pumping cold, dry air into 91L, making it not completely tropical. One characteristic of subtropical systems like 91L is the presence of the main band of heavy thunderstorms removed several hundred miles from the circulation center, and 91L fits that description. 91L has two centers of circulation competing to be dominant, and this competition is slowing the storm's development. The storm was headed north at 5 - 10 mph early this morning, but that motion has halted, and 91L appears to be moving more south-southwesterly now, away from Bermuda. Sea surface temperatures are 23°C, which are very cold for a tropical storm to form in, but could support development of a subtropical storm.

As 91L moves south today, shear will steadily rise, and the storm likely has only until Friday night before shear grows too high to permit development. NHC is giving 91L a 20% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression, which is a reasonable forecast. There has been only been one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003. The formation of a tropical disturbance at this location this time of year is unusual, but is not a harbinger of a active season ahead. Had this been going on in the Caribbean, that would be a different story.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 91L. Note the two centers of circulation competing to be dominant. I expect the northern center will become dominant.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting emcf30:


Live in South Orlando on Lake Conway now. Lived in Melbourne for awhile, Move backed to O-town after Frances and Jeanne redecorated my house
Redecorated.lol... In 1983 I was visiting Melbourne when T.S.Barry was suppose to cause a ruckus but fizzled before moving ashore.
Well, just read back through the blog, actually saw some glints of humor, here and there....thank goodness !....It's all gonna be Otay....as for as the weather....here in Ms the humidity is smothering, makes me wanna move north for the summer......naaah......lol
We feel this season will be below average to average. La Nina is abating and wind shear will be going up. We do see an active Pacific season. Things could change so stay tuned for updates.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
We feel this season will be below average to average. La Nina is abating and wind shear will be going up. We do see an active Pacific season. Things could change so stay tuned for updates.


May I enquirer who "we" is?
Quoting hydrus:
Yes it is..Would you please tell him to cut it out.


He's been avoiding me lately. Must have been something I said.
Quoting emcf30:


Looks like the next round is going to be further south
And with this event will come a more serious flood threat......DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 /THU.
4-28/...WITH RESPECT TO A LARGE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT/EVOLVE SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 7...AND AS IT
DOES...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION.

WITH PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE NWD...AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE -- BEING
ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A
MULTIPLE-DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT AREA SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.

WILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA FROM E TX NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO
ERN OK/WRN AR/SWRN MO FOR DAY 4 /MON. 4-25/...WHERE RELATIVELY
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

A SIMILAR THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5...AS THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NNEWD AND A SECOND SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGS SEWD
TOWARD/INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

ATTM...SPECIFICS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GET MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN DAY 6 /WED. 4-27/ AND BEYOND...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE
MS VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/22/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Quoting MrstormX:


May I enquirer who "we" is?
Me and my friend Elway.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, just read back through the blog, actually saw some glints of humor, here and there....thank goodness !....It's all gonna be Otay....as for as the weather....here in Ms the humidity is smothering, makes me wanna move north for the summer......naaah......lol


Darla, is that you! LOL
Quoting Grothar:


He's been avoiding me lately. Must have been something I said.
Yeah, He is avoiding you and taking it out on us...jk.....really....jk...Next week is making a lot of people nervous...And I do mean alot..
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Me and my friend Elway.


Ohh okay :)
Not trying to interrogate you, just curious.
Testing. Vorticity map.

Ref: 506 Hydrus. We could only pray that Tx gets some much need rail without the severe stuff
Quoting Grothar:


Darla, is that you! LOL


It is...it is...how are ya there , somebody mad at you? When that day comes, I'm just gonna go hide under the bed....lol...
Hey Grothar, how you doing tonight?
thanks, mech.

dramatic video for sure, stormx.

hydrus- a little too well-defined for my taste, that outlook. Don't like it when they're already that comfortable with the forecast, esp days 5-7.

Go in peace, carry on. G'nite m'friends.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


It is...it is...how are ya there , somebody mad at you? When that day comes, I'm just gonna go hide under the bed....lol...


Ha. Have the storms been going around you? Poor hydrus has been getting banged left and right for weeks. We haven't had so much as a breeze. Looking forward to a rainy week. Too bad in a way, because a lot of people here for Easter Week.
Quoting emcf30:
Ref: 506 Hydrus. We could only pray that Tx gets some much need rail without the severe stuff
...Check dis out....Link
91L's dead, Jim.
Quoting hydrus:
Redecorated.lol... In 1983 I was visiting Melbourne when T.S.Barry was suppose to cause a ruckus but fizzled before moving ashore.


I knew I was screwed when I was watching Cooper Anderson
broadcasting live from the Intracoastal Marina about 1/2 mile from my house. That place was destroyed. I lived on the water on Crane Creek and the Indian River. Glad I sent my family to Jax to my sisters house. We lived in the camper for a long time.
Quoting hydrus:
...Check dis out....Link


Reminds me of 1998 here.
Quoting emcf30:
Hey Grothar, how you doing tonight?


Alive. Thanks for asking. And you? Chuckled at a few of your comments today.
Quoting Grothar:


Alive. Thanks for asking. And you? Chuckled at a few of your comments today.


Glad I can make you laugh.
Both LLC's are about the same size now, I don't know if it's dead yet. It started off with the LLC in the NE quadrant circling around a large low level circulation, and then the secondary one which was large today showed up over night. Kind of just circling around each other, may end up combining some point overnight as it reaches warmer SST.

Quoting Grothar:


Ha. Have the storms been going around you? Poor hydrus has been getting banged left and right for weeks. We haven't had so much as a breeze. Looking forward to a rainy week. Too bad in a way, because a lot of people here for Easter Week.


Been dodging tornadoes and storms for a while now, I've been lucky, other family members, not so good. In Ms , we learn young that in order to get sufficient rainfall in the spring and summer, you must take the bad with the good.....problem is , as I'm getting older, I dont dodge as well, ya know...
Quoting Grothar:


Ha. Have the storms been going around you? Poor hydrus has been getting banged left and right for weeks. We haven't had so much as a breeze. Looking forward to a rainy week. Too bad in a way, because a lot of people here for Easter Week.


Uhhh........Wasn't that this week?
There's a dominant low...and this would be it...for now.



Has anyone heard of any damage reports to the hotels to the South of the airport. These areas should have been impacted more than Lambert.
Quoting emcf30:


Glad I can make you laugh.


Bet you're good at math, too! As long as you remember the hospital rule. LOL
Quoting emcf30:


Reminds me of 1998 here.
1998 was the year of those deadly tornadoes..Killed over 40 people in and around the Kissimee area. I still have the newspaper from that day.
Quoting caneswatch:


Uhhh........Wasn't that this week?


A lot of schools alternate. There will be tons down here next week.
Quoting hydrus:
1998 was the year of those deadly tornadoes..Killed over 40 people in and around the Kissimee area. I still have the newspaper from that day.


Yep, Feb 1998. Then a couple of months latter, we were on fire. That was a weird year flooding from Dec - March then in about 1 to 2 months we were bone dry. One of the worst fire outbreaks in Fl history.
Quoting hydrus:
1998 was the year of those deadly tornadoes..Killed over 40 people in and around the Kissimee area. I still have the newspaper from that day.


I still think that was one of the worst outbreaks we ever had. It really was tragic. One of my cousins daughter was badly injured during that. Still has a large scar on her forehead.
Quoting Grothar:


A lot of schools alternate. There will be tons down here next week.


Gotcha. For the kids up in PBC, it was this week.
Atoka county, OK may be FEMA declared for individual assistance soon. It is declared a major.
Tornado causes injuries at St. Louis airport
By JIM SALTER, Associated Press 26 mins ago

ST. LOUIS- Authorities say at least five people have been treated for minor injuries after an apparent tornado ripped through Lambert Field in St. Louis.

The storm lifted a roof off the terminal and sent plate glass flying everywhere. Airport spokesman Jeff Lea says four people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries, and another person was treated at the scene.

Lea said the airport was shut down Friday night and planes were diverted to other locations.

Lea said passengers from at least two planes were stranded briefly on the Lambert tarmac because of debris. They were eventually taken away by buses.

Several people at Lambert Airport in St. Louis were injured Friday after an apparent tornado touched down, spewing debris over the airfield, bursting glass in the concourse and damaging cars atop a parking garage.

The tornado was part of a series of strong storms that struck central and eastern Missouri. Unconfirmed tornadoes were reported in several counties in the St. Louis area.

Link
Quoting Grothar:


I still think that was one of the worst outbreaks we ever had. It really was tragic. One of my cousins daughter was badly injured during that. Still has a large scar on her forehead.


I need to scan and post so pics one day. I was responding to the first touch down reports in Campbell city at the Good Samaritan Village then I saw the Tornado hit the fair grounds and then the RV park. It was about 11:30 or so at night. Pulled up on the scene could not believe my eyes
If this system becomes even more negatively tilted than the models are hinting at, there will be some very strong tornadoes. I do not like the little "L" at the end of the squall line either. It seems like every time that happens we get almost double the rain...
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Atoka county, OK may be FEMA declared for individual assistance soon. It is declared a major.


Several counties in Ms are still waiting, also...many need it...hopefully will hear soon..
Al is about to get declared for Indev assistance, currently its on standby for PB.
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Atoka county, OK may be FEMA declared for individual assistance soon. It is declared a major.
That is another area that could use a breather from severe weather..
Quoting emcf30:


I need to scan and post so pics one day. I was responding to the first touch down reports in Campbell city at the Good Samaritan Village then I saw the Tornado hit the fair grounds and then the RV park. It was about 11:30 or so at night. Pulled up on the scene could not believe my eyes


Quoting hydrus:
If this system becomes even more negatively tilted than the models are hinting at, there will be some very strong tornadoes. I do not like the little "L" at the end of the squall line either. It seems like every time that happens we get almost double the rain...


Hydrus, I've been out of touch today....is that system suppose to move SE thru TN and Ms ?
Quoting hydrus:
If this system becomes even more negatively tilted than the models are hinting at, there will be some very strong tornadoes. I do not like the little "L" at the end of the squall line either. It seems like every time that happens we get almost double the rain...



I see the big H is making it's way down for the May bedding. Man, it's been 6 years since the last neutral, have to do some studying this year. Factoring in climate change, is it really worth it though?
Quoting emcf30:


I need to scan and post so pics one day. I was responding to the first touch down reports in Campbell city at the Good Samaritan Village then I saw the Tornado hit the fair grounds and then the RV park. It was about 11:30 or so at night. Pulled up on the scene could not believe my eyes
You see these disasters up close and in detail..Some people would not be able to handle that...You have to be of strong character for that type of work..jmo
Quoting sunlinepr:


Look, sun. Mine moves.

Quoting Grothar:


He's been avoiding me lately. Must have been something I said.


Most would if they was smart.........LOL........hey Grothar!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hydrus, I've been out of touch today....is that system suppose to move SE thru TN and Ms ?
This is just off the press(so to speak) This is a large and slow moving system. Which means a flooding event is almost a certainty. And to top it off, it will spark 3 full days of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
Oh Yeah, some great visuals for sure!!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I see the big H is making it's way down for the May bedding. Man, it's been 6 years since the last neutral, have to do some studying this year. Factoring in climate change, is it really worth it though?
I noticed that. It reminds me of 1995 very much. The rainy season kicked in with a lot of severe thunderstorms right away.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Most would if they was smart.........LOL........hey Grothar!


Yo, big T! Things are starting off interesting. Just feel bad so many people have to suffer. Any one of us could be in their shoes. I always think that when I see these things. Hope you doing well.
Quoting hydrus:
This is just off the press(so to speak) This is a large and slow moving system. Which means a flooding event is almost a certainty. And to top it off, it will spark 3 full days of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.


Lawdy, Lawdy.....but thanks for the reply :) You keep safe, I'll do the same..
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I see the big H is making it's way down for the May bedding. Man, it's been 6 years since the last neutral, have to do some studying this year. Factoring in climate change, is it really worth it though?


The entire year has been strange. I guess we forget all the ice storms and frigid temperatures that started the year. And now this constant barrage of storms. Very active pattern.
Florida could get some beneficial rain from this....144 hours out..
A cold front clearing through Central Florida this Thursday? Not sure if I'm buying that. The high in the Atlantic seems way too strong for that, I Mean, it might happen but a stalling front around here or to the north of here sounds like a more likely bet considering the last cold front hasn't clear through here in like 2 weeks.
556. flsky
Quoting hydrus:
That is another area that could use a breather from severe weather..


It already has been.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Oh Yeah, some great visuals for sure!!
Great visuals.....:)
Quoting hydrus:
Florida could get some beneficial rain from this....144 hours out..


that doesn't look very beneficial to me, lol, and that's 144 hours out...
Quoting flsky:


It already has been.
It already has been what?
Quoting Jedkins01:


that doesn't look very beneficial to me, lol, and that's 144 hours out...


We're thinking positive here, Jed...lol...:)
Quoting Jedkins01:


that doesn't look very beneficial to me, lol, and that's 144 hours out...
I did type "could" in there for a reason smart ass..Good evening Jed...Hope you are doing good...:)
Quoting Jedkins01:
A cold front clearing through Central Florida this Thursday? Not sure if I'm buying that. The high in the Atlantic seems way too strong for that, I Mean, it might happen but a stalling front around here or to the north of here sounds like a more likely bet considering the last cold front hasn't clear through here in like 2 weeks.


We've had strong cold fronts come down in May. You are just too young to remember. LOL How you doing, Jed? Still being rambunctious?
My family lives where that tornado hit in chester county (west of downtown STL) and the damage is devastating. Luckly my wife's side of the family is fine but a few blocks from them is complete devastation. Infact we were told it looked as if a BOMB went off. They actually heard the tornado and went for cover. No visuals of the tornado as it was dark but the area is pretty much a loss near them but luckily there side of the neighborhood did not get hit. I am stunned by what happened there as we were at dinner when we got the call from them of the extent of the damage in their area.
Quoting Grothar:


The entire year has been strange. I guess we forget all the ice storms and frigid temperatures that started the year. And now this constant barrage of storms. Very active pattern.


Really at a loss here. All the pattern studies I was doing in my spare time have all been scrubbed.

Last neutral was 2005. Actually a smooth neutral this year too, not a drastic change like the last 5 years.
Quoting Grothar:


Look, sun. Mine moves.



Hey, Make it move away from us...

Quoting TampaSpin:


That must be one of those $$$ visuals.....NICE ! Looking good on the "cycle"....how fun that must be :)
Quoting RastaSteve:
My family lives where that tornado hit in chester county and the damage is devastating. Luckly my wife's side of the family is fine but a few blocks from them is complete devastation. Infact we were told it looked as if a BOMB went off. They actually heard the tornado and went for cover. No visuals of the tornado as it was dark but the area is pretty much a loss near them but luckily there side of the neighborhood did not get hit. I am stunned by what happened there as we were at dinner when we got the call from them of the extent of the damage in their area.
Tornadoes at night..That has to be terrifying.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Tampa, we need a little more color variation. Blue as a center focus went out with Gainsborough.
Quoting hydrus:
Tornadoes at night..That has to be terrifying.


yeah I am sure these images of STL come daylight will be insane as they literally said half of there neighborhood is gone. Thank God they are fine!
Just ot give you an idea of how strong this tornado was these houses are brick homes that are destroyed in a ritzy area of suburban STL.
Quoting RastaSteve:


yeah I am sure these images of STL come daylight will be insane as they literally said half of there neighborhood is gone. Thank God they are fine!


Sad news coming out of STL tonight and other areas down stream I'm sure.
Magnitude 6.9 Quake - Solomon Islands

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.9
Date-Time * Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 04:16:55 UTC
* Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 03:16:55 PM at epicenter

Location 10.349°S, 161.233°E
Depth 81.6 km (50.7 miles)
Region SOLOMON ISLANDS
Distances 76 km (47 miles) W of Kira Kira, San Cristobal, Solomon Isl.
173 km (107 miles) SE of HONIARA, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
184 km (114 miles) SSE of Auki, Malaita, Solomon Islands
2084 km (1294 miles) NNE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.4 km (8.9 miles); depth +/- 7.9 km (4.9 miles)
Parameters NST=393, Nph=393, Dmin=173.7 km, Rmss=0.86 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source * USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usc0002xcx

No current Tsunami warning according to NOAA
Quoting Grothar:


Tampa, we need a little more color variation. Blue as a center focus went out with Gainsborough.
This is what I am talking about when I say a major flooding event. Look at the chart at the bottom right of your screen. ( Watch the Mississippi River and surrounding areas)..Link
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Really at a loss here. All the pattern studies I was doing in my spare time have all been scrubbed.

Last neutral was 2005. Actually a smooth neutral this year too, not a drastic change like the last 5 years.


That happens a lot. It is not a waste of time. Pattern studies may imply many different scenarios, but does not necessarily mean that if the end result is not what you expected, it could be a different pattern. That is one of the exciting things about science. There is always another variable when you least expect it. You think they just designed a car the first time out. I am sure many plans have been scrubbed. Anyone here over 50 has to remember the Edsel. LOL
To do that type of damage in their neighborhood I would say this was an EF-3 or EF-4.
Quoting Grothar:


That happens a lot. It is not a waste of time. Pattern studies may imply many different scenarios, but does not necessarily mean that if the end result is not what you expected, it could be a different pattern. That is one of the exciting things about science. There is always another variable when you least expect it. You think they just designed a car the first time out. I am sure many plans have been scrubbed. Anyone here over 50 has to remember the Edsel. LOL


We had a Hudson Hornet......lol...gotcha
Quoting Grothar:


That happens a lot. It is not a waste of time. Pattern studies may imply many different scenarios, but does not necessarily mean that if the end result is not what you expected, it could be a different pattern. That is one of the exciting things about science. There is always another variable when you least expect it. You think they just designed a car the first time out. I am sure many plans have been scrubbed. Anyone here over 50 has to remember the Edsel. LOL
Dad told me..I thought to myself being Henry Ford,s son would have been more than enough to keep Edsel,s flying off the showroom floor...Guess not.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey, Make it move away from us...



If you insist. Just thought you guys would like a little rain in el Yunque.
Quoting Grothar:


Tampa, we need a little more color variation. Blue as a center focus went out with Gainsborough.



Quoting EYEStoSEA:


We had a Hudson Hornet......lol...gotcha


My goodness, and you are still able to type? LOL My father had a Model A. I can remember riding in it.
Heart goes out to those in St Louis.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Just ot give you an idea of how strong this tornado was these houses are brick homes that are destroyed in a ritzy area of suburban STL.


Brick homes are one of the worst types of structures in tornado prone areas. Brick is not that strong; unless it is hurled in one's direction.
Quoting RastaSteve:
To do that type of damage in their neighborhood I would say this was an EF-3 or EF-4.


I was actually watching the velocities at that time of the KO cell. It will probably be rated an EF2. Not much can withstand a direct hit, even from a weak tornado.
Quoting TampaSpin:





I didn't ask for color blind test.
Big Time Flooding Problems coming to the Mississippi Valley.......this might get very ugly!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now that is really serious. I hope hydrus doesn't see it.
Need my lots of beauty sleep! Good nite all!
Pray for instability, she's dry as a bone.


Quoting TampaSpin:
Need my lots of beauty sleep! Good nite all!


Ok, see you in about two weeks.
Quoting hydrus:
Dad told me..I thought to myself being Henry Ford,s son would have been more than enough to keep Edsel,s flying off the showroom floor...Guess not.


Sad thing was, they weren't bad cars. The few still around are worth a fortune.
Quoting Grothar:


Ok, see you in about two weeks.
Ouch.Poor T.S......That graph has almost 10 inches of rain over a large part of the Mississippi Valley...No matter what, there will be flooding along with the adverse weather..
Quoting Grothar:


Sad thing was, they weren't bad cars. The few still around are worth a fortune.
they sold a Tucker last night for over a million dollars..I heard that the Edsel,s were exceptional cars.
Quoting Grothar:


Sad thing was, they weren't bad cars. The few still around are worth a fortune.


Yeah, and I'd be a rich ole belle, if I had that Hornet....oh well.....:)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Yeah, and I'd be a rich ole belle, if I had that Hornet....oh well.....:)
My Dads first car was a Desoto (not sure of the year ). Mine was a 1967 Cutlass Supreme. 330 Jetfire engine, 2 speed PowerGlide transmission. 320 Horses off da show room floor...I wish I had that one back.
Quoting hydrus:
My Dads first car was a Desoto (not sure of the year ). Mine was a 1967 Cutlass Supreme. 330 Jetfire engine, 2 speed PowerGlide transmission. 320 Horses off da show room floor...I wish I had that one back.


You could probably retire. I will tell you my first new car off the blog.
Foreca update:COC near 24.8N 64.8W,strongest winds near 42-44mph(what?)
91L is headed straight for this buoy for now. I bet pressure will be about 1006mb when it gets there.
"Apparent" tornado hits concourse C at Lambert St. Louis international. Injuries from shattered glass. Looks like no loss of life, no planes thrown around. Major says airport will be shut down "indefinitely," but I bet he wishes he had chosen a better word.

msnbc.msn.com

Edit: apparently I did not read far enough back. St. Louis is hurting tonight.
Quoting senorpescador:

who cares about cars

I'm assuming you drive one, so obviously you.

Would this type of construction be good for Hurricane prone area's in the ATL/EPAC??
This is the draft plan for new houses to be built after TC Yasi. More here


Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 10:12:48 UTC
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 07:12:48 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
39.164°N, 142.892°E
Depth
38.9 km (24.2 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Magnitude
6.9
Date-Time
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 04:16:55 UTC
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 03:16:55 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
10.349S, 161.233E
Depth
81.6 km (50.7 miles)
Region
SOLOMON ISLANDS
HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE! HAVE A BLESSED DAY!
Japanese aftershocks activity still occurring.


g'morning all

Tampaspin- took me a good ten minutes to figure out where that 6.9 was, I shoulda just come here first. Solomon Islands. My eyes just don't see the USGS site as good as they used to.

At least I can still see the spikes on the seismos.

Senorpescado _ dreamed I was in a fish market last night, fresh fish white meat around the lower jaws. It was delicious.

The flooding along the Miss seems to be coming later this year than I had expected. Flow, baby, flow.
Good morning everyone. Looks like the residents made it out last night without fatalities and only a few injuries. CNN has good coverage from the air. There are a lot of people praising the early warning from the NWS of saving their lives. Did not realize that everyone had basements there. Some of the damage looks to be at least EF3 maybe a isolated 4. There are several homes with no walls standing
Just a reminder....

I've created a blog entry, If anyone is interested. Feel free to write your location on this blog. Just so as to keep track of where people are in the event of severe weather/hurricane. This info will only be used in an emergency. If we know where you are then we can look out for you.

Just go here
Thanks
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would this type of construction be good for Hurricane prone area's in the ATL/EPAC??
This is the draft plan for new houses to be built after TC Yasi. More here



Need to lose the Gable ends on the roof and replace with "Hip" roof construction to reduce the overall surface area of the house.

The rest of it is better than what most people in the U.S. have if their house was made before 1992. Even since 1992, most contractors in the U.S. only put the minimum of particle board on the corners of a house, when it should have been all the way around.

I see from that diagram that they have suggested using timber instead, which is probably going to be a lot more expensive, but should be stronger and more water resistant, as it says.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 500 NM S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 24N65W MOVING S NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS A DEEP LAYERED
LOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N62W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT NEARLY SURROUNDS THE UPPER LOW
EXCEPT TO THE NE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
E TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 61W-65W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
interesting little note umphreys mcgee (one of our top jam bands) concert is already sold out for their 2012 mexican mayan festival near cancun. 2012 is stacking up to be one of the best yrs to party of all of them. if we dont blow up there will be alot of people running around with hangovers.
91L though void of convection has a very vigorous low level spin
Quoting stormpetrol:
91L though void of convection has a very vigorous low level spin

it's just a void. it's time is over
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's just a void. it's time is over


As some people say on this blog often,
Poof
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would this type of construction be good for Hurricane prone area's in the ATL/EPAC??
This is the draft plan for new houses to be built after TC Yasi. More here
I have a somewhat counter intuitive take on this. Think "perminant"shelters should not be built in Hurricane/surg prone areas. Go back to the build it as cheep as you can fishing shack. In the end loss of life and damage totals might go down as folks would be more prone to evacuate and clean-up replacement costs would decline. Case in point would be H-Ike. Folks would have been less likely to chose to try to ride it out if they knew they were living in a structure with only H-2 capabilities.
I have to agree with Shen (by the way: we sang "Shannendoa")and if you can stand another opinion: that structure is ugly
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I have a somewhat counter intuitive take on this. Think "perminant"shelters should not be built in Hurricane/surg prone areas. Go back to the build it as cheep as you can fishing shack. In the end loss of life and damage totals might go down as folks would be more prone to evacuate and clean-up replacement costs would decline. Case in point would be H-Ike. Folks would have been less likely to chose to try to ride it out if they knew they were living in a structure with only H-2 capabilities.

How much would it cost for structural engineers to go from house to house and put a cat number on houses in hurricane prone areas. would that then make people think. ok. i live in a house that's cat 1 rated, there is a cat 2 or 3 hurricane approaching, would people stay if they know there house is not rated to withstand the approaching hurricane.
Quoting ycd0108:
I have to agree with Shen (by the way: we sang "Shannendoa")and if you can stand another opinion: that structure is ugly

pst, its only a draft, but would you rather stay in a house that will save your life or just looks good and blows away in a cat 1 or 2 hurricane?
Quoting AussieStorm:

How much would it cost for structural engineers to go from house to house and put a cat number on houses in hurricane prone areas. would that then make people think. ok. i live in a house that's cat 1 rated, there is a cat 2 or 3 hurricane approaching, would people stay if they know there house is not rated to withstand the approaching hurricane.


People stay because everyone is full of themselves and actually believe they won't be the one when it happens.
Quoting RandomText:


People stay because everyone is full of themselves and actually believe they won't be the one when it happens.

But if it is proven there house is not structurally safe to stay, would people evac or stay and lose there house and life?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would this type of construction be good for Hurricane prone area's in the ATL/EPAC??
This is the draft plan for new houses to be built after TC Yasi. More here


I agree with the other comment. Hip Roofs are the best for strength, and reducing the wind drag. A home built on Piers is great for a coastal / storm surge prone areas. Walls and Truss / Rafters should be secured to each other with metal plates or straps and nailed with non-shearing fasteners.
All sheathing and roofing fasteners should be ring shank when possible.

Not sure if you have any systems like this over there, but for energy efficiency and strength this is the best system I've seen for the shell construction on a concrete slab:
http://omnicrete.net/Omnicrete_Home_Page.html

I'm a Florida General Contractor, and have worked most of the latest land-falling hurricanes in the Continental US, and I'm familiar with the latest coastal codes in the US and Miami-Dade, FL (Our most strict)
This was actually a huge low level circulation when you really look at it.

I think we should actually be thankful that it was out of season and the shear was so high, else this could have been Alex 2.0, but in the open Atlantic.

Yeah, it's dead for now, but look how huge the LLC really is on the RGB satellite.


I think it's going to end up on a track similar to Ike, but obviously nothing to be concerned about, since its a nothing and was never classified.

Unfortunately, being a dry naked swirl is exactly what we don't want going near Florida, as I said yesterday, because it's going to be more wind than rain, and I don't think that can be a good thing. It would be better for Florida if it hits or makes its closest approach as TD1 than to be a naked vortex.
XX/INV/91L
MARK
deactivate
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/91L
MARK
deactivate
good news!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
good news!!


I dont see where 91L was deactivated, not on the atcf site
This will turn out to be a large and severe event.... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAYS 4-6 /TUE. 4-26 THROUGH THU. 4-28/...AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY DAY 5...AND THEN ON EWD THROUGH DAYS 6/7. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO EMERGE
DAY 5...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7 AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE E COAST STATES/ERN ATLANTIC.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS PROGGED FROM E TX NEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD
INTO THIS REGION...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COMBINED WITH THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED/STRONG
FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DAY 5...AS THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL
TO EVEN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THIS REGION. AGAIN -- AMPLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

AS MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS...DEGREE OF THREAT SHIFTING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY 6 BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM
HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 7... SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS LESS
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2011
Quoting hydrus:
I did type "could" in there for a reason smart ass..Good evening Jed...Hope you are doing good...:)



hahaha I am doing great! You? I just finished my last Calculus test of the semester, now I only have the final exam left!
91L was nothing but good eye candy,and a pratice as you will for the real stuff that's ahead.Don't worry tropical weather fans.We'll get action soon enough.
Quoting Grothar:


We've had strong cold fronts come down in May. You are just too young to remember. LOL How you doing, Jed? Still being rambunctious?


LOL, well its not that we have never had cold fronts moves through in May, its just that this year everything is ahead of schedule, I mean heck we haven't had a cold front clear through in a very long time. The strong Bermuda high has already taken shape, which always marks the end of cold fronts, well not completely. I am have seen fronts come down and stall near the area or over South Florida in the wet season, often times in June. However they quickly lift back north as a warm front with a return of higher moisture and rainfall. I would imagine any front will crawl through the area before quickly lifting north again.
637 Aussie: (The quote function is one PIA)
I'm a builder as well and very interested in disaster proofing. We get H force winds here occassionaly, heavy snow loads and, once every half millenium or so, a megathrust earthquake (january, 1700 was the last one).
I was being flippant about the design you posted but Shen's point still stands - any structure can be destroyed by an overwhelming natural event.
"The Harder they come
The harder they fall"
Generally though 91L looked more decent than the most ugliest storms that I've seen in the past......does Danny come to mind.I don't even....know what that was...
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