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Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

#975 -

G'mornin' folks. Good post Caicos, worth a repost...

Tornado Chaser

It started out as a beautiful day,
Until a cloud got in my way.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
Mamma said, you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Crankin' up the stereo?
Just a tornado, baby.

A lotta work went into this place.
I always thought I had it made.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
They say you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Where you go you never know
In a tornado, baby.

It's easy to know what to take
When everything is all erased.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
Oh, you know you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Never be a bigger show
Than a tornado, baby.

It was such a lovely sunny day
Until a cloud turned it all to grey.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
I don't know,
Just a tornado, baby.

MRH
i see this morning its not looking to bad for east central florida anymore.... storm going more north... so much for those crazy 10 to 20 inch rain predictions ive been hearing about on here the past 3 days.... not gonna happen as i thought

Visit my blog for all the links!
Tune out the melodramatic narrator and just listen to Mr. Goldenberg...
Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.
1013. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori whats up with the pattern for august!


Sorry, I logged off after making that blog.

As I said yesterday, we can't really tell if the current ominous landfall pattern is going to hold. As we saw with Isaac, the pattern can sometimes be fickle even out to just five days. The best advice I can give is to be prepared.
It would appear that the lady has just blushed, but agrees to dance.






Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It would appear that the lady has just blushed, but agrees to dance.








I find these random metaphors amusing.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS LOW WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH IT SITTING TO THE WEST,
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THE PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND WILL REMAIN
SO AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN COVERAGE IS LOWER IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING, IT SHOULD PICK
UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN COLLABORATION
WITH TAFB, HAVE UPPED POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
CATEGORICAL AS WAVES OF SHOWERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF,
HOWEVER, ON THE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF QPF
, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OFFSHORE ANYWAYS.
WHILE MODELS ARE ONLY GIVING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
, THE FACT THAT THE MOISTURE IS
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND PWATS ARE HIGH, MEANS THAT MODELS COULD BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF QPF FOR TODAY. HPC IS SHOWING AROUND
A HALF INCH TODAY, AND AROUND AN INCH THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEW 5
DAY TOTALS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
.

NOW, LOOKING AT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THEY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, IF
EXISTENT AT ALL
. CAPE IS SHOWING TO BE LESS THAN 100 JOULES, WHILE
THE CIN IS AROUND, OR EVEN OVER 100. THE GFS IS SHOWING LIS TO BE
SLIGHTLY STABLE, AT 1. MBE VELOCITIES ARE AROUND 15 KTS, MEANING,
STORMS WILL MOVE, ALTHOUGH NOT VERY FAST. THIS WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR FLOODING, BUT NOT REDUCE IT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATE ARE AROUND 5 C/KM. BUT, AS A PRECAUTION, HAVE KEPT
JUST A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM, WITH JUST A FEW
STRIKES OF LIGHTENING.
------------------------------------------------- ------------------

So: Tuesday has gone from a thoroughly-drenching, frog-strangling, gullywashing floodmaker to between 0.25" and 0.5". Hardly the stuff of meteorological legend. Though it's been clouded over and as muggy as a rainforest here, Naples has received a whopping 0.99" since the start of this "event". Looks like we'll have to wait a while longer to make the history books... ;-)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
1021. MahFL
Quoting sar2401:
.... What am I missing here?


Nothing, development if any will be SLOW, as in days. It's early June, conditions are barely marginal for development in the GOM.
1022. MahFL
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
.He was remembered Monday as a devoted father of two boys, 7 and 10...


Not so devoted as he put himself in harms way before his kids had grown up.
12.30 Clock:
The situation in Halle an der Saale escalates: Hundreds forces fighting with the army in a dramatic race against time around the dikes. "The dams are very watered down," said Mayor Bernd Wiegand (independent) after a meeting of the crisis committee. "We currently expect that we can keep the dams., The question is how long will they last," Wiegand said. There was some seepage areas where water had quit.

12.27 Clock:
Not only residents and business people affected by the flooding, many farmers have to adapt to crop failures. Agriculture Minister Ilse Aigner wants to help. "We will not leave the affected farmers in the rain," said Aigner. Your house check "all possible ways".

12.08 Clock:
In Passau, the Danube by 21 clock of 12.89 meters yesterday reached its highest level in 500 years. Only in August 1501 there were, according to investigations by the Water Management Office, with about 13.00 to 13.20 meters as an even higher level.

Link
key west radar shows quite a few showers moving into sw florida
Al roker is so funny. He was doing a voice over showing Miami this morning, he said "Miami is getting dumped on right now" the shot was a partly cloudy morning with no rain. It struck me as kinda funny.
1027. FOREX
Quoting mcdsara1:
Al roker is so funny. He was doing a voice over showing Miami this morning, he said "Miami is getting dumped on right now" the shot was a partly cloudy morning with no rain. It struck me as kinda funny.


Never liked the guy. My Grandfather told me once that back in his day Al would at best make animals out of balloons.
Quoting Luisport:
12.30 Clock:
The situation in Halle an der Saale escalates: Hundreds forces fighting with the army in a dramatic race against time around the dikes. "The dams are very watered down," said Mayor Bernd Wiegand (independent) after a meeting of the crisis committee. "We currently expect that we can keep the dams., The question is how long will they last," Wiegand said. There was some seepage areas where water had quit.

12.27 Clock:
Not only residents and business people affected by the flooding, many farmers have to adapt to crop failures. Agriculture Minister Ilse Aigner wants to help. "We will not leave the affected farmers in the rain," said Aigner. Your house check "all possible ways".

12.08 Clock:
In Passau, the Danube by 21 clock of 12.89 meters yesterday reached its highest level in 500 years. Only in August 1501 there were, according to investigations by the Water Management Office, with about 13.00 to 13.20 meters as an even higher level.

Link
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has promised 'unbureaucratic' aid to Passau and other flood-hit areas. While water levels are slowly falling in the south, flooding is getting worse further north.
1029. MahFL
Quoting tropicfreak:
... It's a big system....>


No it's not a big system, it's not even a system yet. The size you see is due to the massive amount of shear blowing the thunderstorms NE.
1030. WxLogic
Good Morning
30% still or higher at 0800 hrs EDT?
1033. barbamz


Good morning everybody from Germany. As I've promised yesterday I've made a morning walk to the banks of Rhine River when high waters reached their crest (7 meters = 23 feet). Amazing to be suddenly at eye level with the swans. Mind, Mainz City isn't in danger of being flooded since it was fortified against the river in the 19th century. So we are very lucky compared to those poor people in the southeastern parts of our country and the adjacent countries.

The photo above is the first one of a series of photos (10). You can see, at some parts we are trying to catch up to the swamps of Florida, lol.
1034. Torito
91L looking a bit better this morning...




There's a huge Walmart Supercenter located in Tegucigalpa. It's the only Walmart I've been in where the security guards were armed with automatic rifles and you get searched going in and coming out. Walmart also owns all the Dispensa Familiar stores, which are all over the country, but their guards usually just have shotguns and don't search everyone. Honduras can be a scary place at times.Oh yes in my city the despensa familiar is quite popular.Oh Honduras is quite a place in terms of security ;)I have been assault at least 3 times if you come to Honduras but is quite a nice place when you forget about security their beaches and biodiversity is unique.
1036. Torito
Quoting Jwd41190:
30% still or higher at 0800 hrs EDT?


Ima go with 30% or higher, maybe 40%.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

1037. intampa
local mets in tampa dont seem to be concerned with any huge amounts of rain. the storm doesnt seem to be doing much. looks like no major rain as predicted just the normal afternoon 2-3 inch thunderstorms
1038. Torito
Quoting allancalderini:
Oh yes in my city the despensa familiar is quite popular.Oh Honduras is quite a place in terms of security ;)I have been assault at least 3 times if you come to Honduras but is quite a nice place when you forget about security their beaches and biodiversity is unique.


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
1039. barbamz
BBC Update with video on the flooding catastrophy in Central Europe: 4 June 2013 Last updated at 10:44 GMT
Floods threaten Dresden as Prague river levels fall
1040. Torito
I expect 0% develoment from 96W....

Quoting Torito:


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
Not really you get accustom.
Quoting Torito:


Ima go with 30% or higher, maybe 40%.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

I say a 40-60% chance.Recon is still going out there.
Quoting intampa:
local mets in tampa dont seem to be concerned with any huge amounts of rain. the storm doesnt seem to be doing much. looks like no major rain as predicted just the normal afternoon 2-3 inch thunderstorms
It'll be little higher than that up to 5-10 inches.
91L still 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
I am so mad,bye.
Wow it was not like that yesterday they now go up to TS
Quoting mikatnight:
Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.


Where did you get that and how was it calculated?

It follows the 8th power of the ratio of the wind speeds.

Here are some factors I thought of, but some of them do not follow a continuous curve.

Scientific unit "Power" is the 4th (mathematical)power impacting a stationary object, for the velocity of a fluid.

Next factor is stronger storm penetrates farther inland before dissipating. This might add another power of 1, but I doubt it would be a whole power, since weakening along the way would prevent that.

Next factor is breaking strength of objects, which is not a continuous curve. If roofs breaking strength is somewhere between 115mph and 130mph, then a category 3 would deal much, much more damage than a category 2, because there is a "step function" like behavior here. With the winds just slightly below the breaking strength, little or no damage is done. With the winds slightly above the breaking strength, wide spread damage is done. Large buildings tend to have breaking strengths somewhere around 180mph, so one could see how a 190mph storm would again do much more damage.

Anyway, I take issue with that chart, because if it were true, Camille or Labor Day 1935 would still reign as the most destructive hurricanes.


I'd like to see how it was calculated though, because a simply 8th mathematical power curve is inconsistent with the real world facts.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I say a 40-60% chance.Recon is still going out there.


But the recon won't make the 0800 hr update right? It will be more the 1400hr update unless they make a special update and classify it as our first depression.
Anyway, I'm out until later.

Quoting Andrebrooks:
I am so mad,bye.
??? Why? If you're mad, better stay away for awhile. It'll calm you and keep yourself from ban.
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning everybody from Germany. As I've promised yesterday I've made a morning walk to the banks of Rhine River when high waters reached their crest (7 meters = 23 feet above normal). Amazing to be suddenly at eye level with the swans. Mind, Mainz City isn't in danger of beeing flooded since it was fortified against the river in the 19th century. So we are very lucky compared to those poor people in the southeastern parts of our country and the adjacent countries.

The photo above is the first one of a series of photos (10). You can see, at some parts we are trying to catch up to the swamps of Florida, lol.

13.34 Clock:
In the district of Deggendorf in Bavaria, a dam has the waters of the Danube can not withstand. Near the village of winemakers, a dam was broken, said a spokesman of the district administration. The water is then spread out behind it. Initially affected were only a few farms, other consequences are not yet clear.

13.21 Clock:
Again, Merkel said "bureaucratic relief" in order to cope with the consequences of the disaster. For every euro to give the land, and the federal government would give one euro.
1051. Mikla
This blob is still pretty much a mess. It looks like the "center" is over land and 20-30 knots of shear blowing the convection WAY off to the east leaving a bunch of dry air in the circulation.
1052. ncstorm
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow it was not like that yesterday they now go up to TS


CMC dont seem so crazy now..
Beautiful morning here in Southern Illnois. Nice temperatures today, light wind, and low humidity.
1055. LargoFl
hI GUYS,IM HOPING WE do GET SOME RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM,WE CAN USE IT AROUND TAMPA BAY AREA..WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS WEEK GOES ON..
I guess that chart could be true in "material damage," rather than our fake paper money damage.

It predicts that Andrew's Landfall in Florida should have produced $880 Billion dollars damage, using last year's Issac as a baseline...

Obviously, that didn't happen, and part of the reason may well be that there weren't $880 billion dollars worth of "stuff" in it's path.


The 6th power produces a (wrong), but much more reasonable monetary relationship, and I can explain at least "inputs" for all 6 of those powers. I can't figure out where the other two would come from in that chart.
1057. VR46L
Morning Folks!!!

Welcome back Largo
1058. ncstorm
Invest 91L:

1060. VR46L
Hmm Not the scariest looking image of water Vapour In the Gulf I have ever seen


NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes


1061. ncstorm
00Z CMC..might have another potential to watch..Central Atlantic Storm

54 hours

60 hours




Quoting LargoFl:
hI GUYS,IM HOPING WE do GET SOME RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM,WE CAN USE IT AROUND TAMPA BAY AREA..WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS WEEK GOES ON..

Hi Largo! Welcome back!
1063. ncstorm
6z Navgem-also the Central Atlantic potential


1064. ncstorm
06z GFS..Central Atlantic-not as strong as the CMC but the potential is there on the GFS
60 hours


Might get early cape verde development..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Might get early cape verde development..
Agree will be cool if we get Andrea and Barry this month.
Quoting ncstorm:
00Z CMC..might have another potential to watch..Central Atlantic Storm

54 hours

60 hours






I don't get what that's picking up on.

The wave at 40W is too far south, too disorganized, and moving too quickly to be the progenitor of that system. Further, there is no other obvious wave in the vicinity.
1068. ncstorm


Quoting washingtonian115:
Might get early cape verde development..
It will be out to sea no doubt.
Quoting LargoFl:
hI GUYS,IM HOPING WE do GET SOME RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM,WE CAN USE IT AROUND TAMPA BAY AREA..WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS WEEK GOES ON..
Nice to see you again! Hopefully you stick around for the season!
1071. ncstorm
East Atlantic


Central Atlantic
getting a blow up of deep convection 91
Quoting RTSplayer:


Where did you get that and how was it calculated?

It follows the 8th power of the ratio of the wind speeds.

Here are some factors I thought of, but some of them do not follow a continuous curve.

Scientific unit "Power" is the 4th (mathematical)power impacting a stationary object, for the velocity of a fluid.

Next factor is stronger storm penetrates farther inland before dissipating. This might add another power of 1, but I doubt it would be a whole power, since weakening along the way would prevent that.

Next factor is breaking strength of objects, which is not a continuous curve. If roofs breaking strength is somewhere between 115mph and 130mph, then a category 3 would deal much, much more damage than a category 2, because there is a "step function" like behavior here. With the winds just slightly below the breaking strength, little or no damage is done. With the winds slightly above the breaking strength, wide spread damage is done. Large buildings tend to have breaking strengths somewhere around 180mph, so one could see how a 190mph storm would again do much more damage.

Anyway, I take issue with that chart, because if it were true, Camille or Labor Day 1935 would still reign as the most destructive hurricanes.


I'd like to see how it was calculated though, because a simply 8th mathematical power curve is inconsistent with the real world facts.



The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 33 feet) is the determining factor in the scale. This scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, it shows damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. However, this does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. When these additional factors are considered the rate of increase in damage is much higher. When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage. However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.

Remember, damage WILL occur with a 75 mph hurricane. The multiplier values are the potential damage increases above what could occur with a 75 mph storm. Note the rapid increase in potential damage just within each category. A 95 mph hurricane can produce nearly seven times the damage as a 75 mph hurricane with just a 20 mph increase in wind strength. A 10 mph increase in wind speed, from 100 mph to 110 mph, results in over doubling potential damage from 10-times that of a 75 mph hurricane to 21-times.

Source: NWS
Quoting allancalderini:
Agree will be cool if we get Andrea and Barry this month.
Keep us busy for sure.\

Unkowncomic it's the best when their out to sea.
Bad weather in Oklahoma again. Widespread hail storms.

Nothing tornadic yet. Looks more like a squall line or bow echo forming though.
1076. ncstorm
72HR 1012MB Might get early cape verde development on the GFS and CMC
"...the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power..."

can't do superscript. should be 2 to the 8th power
Out again until evening.
1080. FOREX
Quoting islander101010:
getting a blow up of deep convection 91


Still hoping to get a few inches of rain from this here in Panama City Beach, but doesn't look promising.
Quoting mikatnight:



The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 33 feet) is the determining factor in the scale. This scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, it shows damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. However, this does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. When these additional factors are considered the rate of increase in damage is much higher. When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage. However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.

Remember, damage WILL occur with a 75 mph hurricane. The multiplier values are the potential damage increases above what could occur with a 75 mph storm. Note the rapid increase in potential damage just within each category. A 95 mph hurricane can produce nearly seven times the damage as a 75 mph hurricane with just a 20 mph increase in wind strength. A 10 mph increase in wind speed, from 100 mph to 110 mph, results in over doubling potential damage from 10-times that of a 75 mph hurricane to 21-times.

Source: NWS


Fine, but it stil has no dimensional analysis explanation.

I could only explain 5 or 6 powers through dimensional analysis. Where did the other 2 or 3 come from?
climatology says says no mdr activity in june. watching the area nevertheless
Broken dam in Deggendorf - people in floods

The water levels in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt constantly rising. Also in Passau is no relief in sight, the houses fill up.
13.50 Clock: Dams in Deggendorf broken


On the Danube in Bavaria, the situation escalated. In Deggendorf district near the village of winemakers several dams are broken, further also threaten the water masses no longer resist. Even when fishing village a dam is broken.

Been affected by the now seeping water masses initially only a few farms, other consequences are not yet clear, reports the " Passau Neue Presse ". During the day, probably have to leave their houses around 4000 people.

The newspaper quoted a spokesman for the Red Cross: "It is likely even worse." Some people had been rescued from the floods.
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en& js=n&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.we lt.de/vermischtes/article116784740/Damm-in-Deggend orf-gebrochen-Menschen-in-Fluten.html
Let's hope for a cool or average June temperature wise!! :-)

SouthernIllinois
Quoting FOREX:


Still hoping to get a few inches of rain from this here in Panama City Beach, but doesn't look promising.


I feel you, it hasn't rained here in Fort Walton Beach in over 3 weeks. We had a wet Winter and Spring and then it just dried up in early May. We had storms to our North yesterday but none of them made it down to the coast before they fizzled. I'm hoping this system entering the GOM stays week and goes further West before moving North and we at least get some rain out of it.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Fine, but it stil has no dimensional analysis explanation.

I could only explain 5 or 6 powers through dimensional analysis. Where did the other 2 or 3 come from?


Don't be obstinate. You obviously are a smart person, go to the site, figure it out, then tell all of us. It's from the NWS, so I figure they know what they're talking about. If you don't trust the info, then 'splain it to us, Lucy!
s floridians are going to doing the backstroke down alligator alley, heavy rains moving in thanks to keller
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Good ball of convection near the MLC it needs to persist before we can get some organization. Shear expected to drop under 20 kts in the next 48 hours so it still has a shot of developing. The main inhibitor will be the dry air mass over the gulf that will prevent the west side to get going and thus keep it at best a minimal TS IF it develops. I would give it a 50% chance within the next 72 hours.
Let me correct myself.

"power" is the 3rd power of the velocity of the fluid impacting an object, multiplied by density, and divided by 2. The must multiply by surface area, but since we are assuming the same targets in all cases, varying only wind speed, none of that matters. The division by 2 cancels, the density cancels, the surface area cancels, adn we are left only with velocity cubed.

Velocity cubed gives us 3 of those 8 powers.

Distance penetrated gives us probably only half of one power, not a full power.

Area/size of a storm is not correlated to wind speed, so it is detrimental to that chart.

After some thought, "breaking strength" is not another power, it is merely the point at which the product of all other powers overcomes "new" targets.

So really I can actually only explain about 3.5 to 4 powers through dimensional analysis.

The most relevant milestones would be:

Mobile home damaged but not destroyed
Mobile home destroyed
Slab house has some superficial damage
Slab house roof failure
Total failure of a conventional "stick" slab house
Total failure of a foam or other non-conventional slab house.
Levee over tops
Levee breaches
Partial failure of commercial buildings ( roof peel, windows, etc)
Total failure of a commercial building. (never seen it).

Guthrie, OK, has already received 1.86" of rain from storms this morning as severe weather moves through the area.
#1091 -

You are so far over my head...

Somebody...help!
1095. pcola57
Quoting mikatnight: Post# 1073



The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 33 feet) is the determining factor in the scale. This scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, it shows damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. However, this does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. When these additional factors are considered the rate of increase in damage is much higher. When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage. However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.

Remember, damage WILL occur with a 75 mph hurricane. The multiplier values are the potential damage increases above what could occur with a 75 mph storm. Note the rapid increase in potential damage just within each category. A 95 mph hurricane can produce nearly seven times the damage as a 75 mph hurricane with just a 20 mph increase in wind strength. A 10 mph increase in wind speed, from 100 mph to 110 mph, results in over doubling potential damage from 10-times that of a 75 mph hurricane to 21-times.

Source: NWS


Good Morning All..
On the link you posted mikatight, the is a printable PDF of a "Hurricaine Wheel"..
For those whose printer works (mine is shot) that wheel looks very interesting..

Printable Hurricaine Wheel..PDF
Welcome back, Largo. We got close to 4" of rain Saturday evening in S. Tampa. But, as it goes around here, I guess you got little in Largo.
1098. Levi32
1091. If you're talking about actual "power" then your units are all wrong. They should be [(Force * distance) / time] = [energy / time]
That wave by Africa is what ya'll talking about.
Good Morning. Ahh, the wonders of Mother Nature. Just when we through it was over, as the main area of rain and squalls were approaching Florida, with little to no t-storm activity as noted last night, we have a nice convective flare-up further South off the tip of the Yucatan.

Not the best synoptic environment at present; still embedded in the Trof and lots of dry air pushing in from the West that could inhibit better organization.

Will have to wait until later this evening to see if it can keep up with the convective bursts.
1102. barbamz
Complaints arise over Germany's flood preparedness
Deutsche Welle English, June 4th 2013

Video "Worst flood since the Middle Ages" and photo gallery on the main page.

Flood Disaster: Merkel Pledges Immediate Aid to Victims
Spiegel English with photo gallery, June 4th 2013

Some metereological hints: Those catastrophic rainfalls occur in central or southeastern Europe, when a cyclone with warm moisture is tracking from the Mediterranean Sea along the eastern side of the Alpes to the north, where it meets colder air (so called V(5)b-situation.
Just glad to have the sun out and things drying out here in Berlin, DE. This weather is crummy even by German standards.
Well, somebody with some smarts should debate RTSplayer. I would, but I thought they were giving out trains...

Time for me to go to work doing electrical stuff. I leave you with this - and this is definitely NOT the time or place for such nonsense (and yet I do so anyway).
From the 2011 album, 'Paper Airplane' Allison Krauss and "the voice of George Clooney" (Dan Tyminski) perform one of the best lyrically written songs I've ever heard:
1105. K8eCane

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL
TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ILM
AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA
AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLUTION RANGE FROM LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
TO LOW PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH TRACKS SUGGEST
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRI. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD PUT THE ILM FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. EVENT THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WHEN IT REACHES THE AREA IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING POINTS TO A
FRI-FRI EVENING EVENT.

FROM WiLMINGTON NC NWS
1106. barbamz
Quoting largeeyes:
Just glad to have the sun out and things drying out here in Berlin, DE. This weather is crummy even by German standards.


Largeeyes, I often think of you! Weatherwise you've really chosen a hard time to stay in Germany ... I'm somehow ashamed of our weather.



And here is the link to the time lapse of Cancun on 91L this morning.
The current convective burst is baroclinic in nature; nice big ULL/Tutt cell nestled over the Gulf which is aiding the convection in the current location. Keep an eye on the Tutt as well to see if it moves away or stays close by.

Link
Off to Work have a good day all!
1109. pcola57
Quoting mikatnight:
Well, somebody with some smarts should debate RTSplayer. I would, but I thought they were giving out trains...

Time for me to go to work doing electrical stuff. I leave you with this - and this is definitely NOT the time or place for such nonsense (and yet I do so anyway).
From the 2011 album, 'Paper Airplane' Allison Krauss and "the voice of George Clooney" (Dan Tyminski) perform one of the best lyrically written songs I've ever heard:



See Post# 1095 for educational and printable "Hurricaine Wheel " or Click HERE

It's on the bottom right on this NWS page..Click HERE
Quoting barbamz:


Largeeyes, I often think of you! Weatherwise you've really chosen a hard time to stay in Germany ... I'm somehow ashamed of our weather.


Well, as they told my colleague for the two years he was here before me, and as they have told me for the last two years, this isn't normal. Not quite sure I believe them, though. Last summer was quite dreadful, but this weekend looks warm and sunny, so fingers crossed.

I was riding my bike to work a couple weeks ago and had caught a few rays on the one warm day we had(a Sunday I think) and actually burnt the backs of my legs. However, it was so cold my fingers were numb on the ride. Pretty odd feeling to be sunburnt and that cold.

It's a good thing the beer is so yummy.
1111. IKE
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west
#1102 barbamz, your first links ends on ""We are in a constant battle with nature that presents us again and again with new and unknown flooding scenarios," Schumann noted."

They need another flood, and a worse one by far. Let's pray for it. Only chance for Bangladesh.
14.31 Clock: dam has cracks in Niederaltaich


A dam above Niederaltaich (Bayern) takes the cracks. The police shouted "Deggendorfer newspaper" on Tuesday afternoon with Mayor Josef Thalhammer, and urgently asks that all residents leave the place.


14.16 Clock: Goats back in danger


In Thuringia, the situation worsened in the small village goats back. Reason: From the Bleilochtalsperre about 200 cubic meters of water per second would have to be drained, tells the District Office. The dam threatens to overflow otherwise.


The rising water level of the river Saale forcing the energy company Vattenfall as a tenant of the dam to this measure. Thus climb the risk of flooding of goats back. The place could only handle 120 cubic meters of water per second.
12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013060412, , BEST, 0, 243N, 893W, 25, 1009, DB
1115. FOREX
Quoting IKE:
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
Quoting Torito:


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
you don't need security w the second amendment. Use it.

As for tampa's rainfall potential, it still looks like the entire area will get between 5-9" which should be concerning to residents and local mets. Everyone knows s Tampa can't even handle a quick inch sometimes
1118. MahFL
I see the spin Joe mentioned, it seems to be heading west though.
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula with a tornado potential as well. Tampa over to Orlando may squeeze out a foot of rain out of this.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD
THREAT...

TODAY...LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...WHILE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
CREEP UPWARD TO AS MUCH AS 2.25 INCHES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE MULTI-
LAYED CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING INTO MID DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SPOKES OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE LIFT
ALONG PROMINENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ...70 POP AREAWIDE. WHILE SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
HEAVY RAIN...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF FOR A
WHILE LONGER. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DURING THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WED...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS STREAMS A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

THU...WHILE THE GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN GULF/FL WEST COAST...
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT ARE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION THU AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THINK THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS 70-80 PERCENT THU AND 50-60 PERCENT THU
NIGHT. THINK A FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRI...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS THE BIG BEND THU NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT OVER EC FL AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.


FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SHOULD
SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
(ORLANDO NORTH). HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED ACROSS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTH FL...BRINGING THE
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
Quoting IKE:
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west


Hi Ike, stick around this season a little. I miss when you posted the GFS model in the am.
1121. MahFL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula..


7 inches of rain for FL is not a very serious event. I've told you a thousand times, don't exaggerate.....
1122. FOREX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula with a tornado potential as well. Tampa over to Orlando may squeeze out a foot of rain out of this.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD
THREAT...

TODAY...LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...WHILE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
CREEP UPWARD TO AS MUCH AS 2.25 INCHES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE MULTI-
LAYED CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING INTO MID DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SPOKES OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE LIFT
ALONG PROMINENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ...70 POP AREAWIDE. WHILE SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
HEAVY RAIN...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF FOR A
WHILE LONGER. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DURING THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WED...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS STREAMS A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

THU...WHILE THE GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN GULF/FL WEST COAST...
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT ARE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION THU AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THINK THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS 70-80 PERCENT THU AND 50-60 PERCENT THU
NIGHT. THINK A FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRI...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS THE BIG BEND THU NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT OVER EC FL AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.


FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SHOULD
SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
(ORLANDO NORTH). HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED ACROSS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTH FL...BRINGING THE
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.


What can we expect in the central Panhandle, like Panama City Beach from this disturbance?
1123. IKE

Quoting FOREX:


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
lol
1124. IKE

Quoting sporteguy03:


Hi Ike, stick around this season a little. I miss when you posted the GFS model in the am.
I'll try. Busy working a lot.
1125. newt3d
Quoting RTSplayer:


Fine, but it stil has no dimensional analysis explanation.

I could only explain 5 or 6 powers through dimensional analysis. Where did the other 2 or 3 come from?


The issue here is that we're not measuring the force generated by wind, we're measuring the monetary cost of a storm with that wind speed.

Storms with higher wind speed, in addition to having more wind force, also:

1. Have more storm surge
2. Can impact a larger area (mainly due to taking longer to dissipate).

Additionally, cost generally goes up when infrastructure is destroyed. It's easy to repair one damaged house. It's much harder if you need to avoid downed power lines, clear debris, build a road to that house, and bring all the food, water, and sanitation with you that will be required while you repair that house.
Quoting FOREX:


What can we expect in the central Panhandle, like Panama City Beach from this disturbance?
some beautiful deep blue skies and some cute little cumulus :)
1127. FOREX
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
some beautiful deep blue skies and some cute little cumulus :)


Maybe some wind??
The GFS, CMC, and ECWMF have all shifted slightly south and come into agreement with a landfall near Cedar Key, FL or somewhere in the Big Bend Region.


That low level circulation near 25n and 89.5w may be getting ejected
Quoting mikatnight:
Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.
Isn't this scale somewhat subjective? After a certain point (windspeed), does it really matter?
Quoting RTSplayer:
Let me correct myself.

"power" is the 3rd power of the velocity of the fluid impacting an object, multiplied by density, and divided by 2. The must multiply by surface area, but since we are assuming the same targets in all cases, varying only wind speed, none of that matters. The division by 2 cancels, the density cancels, the surface area cancels, adn we are left only with velocity cubed.

Velocity cubed gives us 3 of those 8 powers.

Distance penetrated gives us probably only half of one power, not a full power.

Area/size of a storm is not correlated to wind speed, so it is detrimental to that chart.

After some thought, "breaking strength" is not another power, it is merely the point at which the product of all other powers overcomes "new" targets.

So really I can actually only explain about 3.5 to 4 powers through dimensional analysis.

The most relevant milestones would be:

Mobile home damaged but not destroyed
Mobile home destroyed
Slab house has some superficial damage
Slab house roof failure
Total failure of a conventional "stick" slab house
Total failure of a foam or other non-conventional slab house.
Levee over tops
Levee breaches
Partial failure of commercial buildings ( roof peel, windows, etc)
Total failure of a commercial building. (never seen it).


I think the issue is that you are primarily considering the energy of the system, which as you say has a third power relationship with wind speed. For now, if we ignore flooding effects and just consider wind damage then the damage should be considered as directly related to the fraction of buildings in a given area that would be heavily damaged by a given wind, and the value of that type of building. So if we consider that a baseline cat 1 would mainly cause heavy damage to mobile homes, which are relatively low cost and are a relatively small fraction of buildings. As the strength rises, the value of the range of types of building damaged or destroyed would increase, as would be the number of buildings and the value of each one (single family homes being the larger volume of housing and having a higher cost, factories contain a lot of expensive equipment etc), so even if we consider a linear increase in wind energy I would expect at least a 3rd power increase in damage, so that pushes us to at least a 6th power correlation to wind speed. Add increased time over land, storm surge etc, and 8th power doesn't look that unreasonable, even if at first site it looks far too high.
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning everybody from Germany. As I've promised yesterday I've made a morning walk to the banks of Rhine River when high waters reached their crest (7 meters = 23 feet). Amazing to be suddenly at eye level with the swans. Mind, Mainz City isn't in danger of being flooded since it was fortified against the river in the 19th century. So we are very lucky compared to those poor people in the southeastern parts of our country and the adjacent countries.

The photo above is the first one of a series of photos (10). You can see, at some parts we are trying to catch up to the swamps of Florida, lol.
Yeah, the swan looks "amazed" too. lol
Come on models trend west to north Ga not east to southeast GA....

going the wrong way


I like that westerly track :)
I'm sorry but I just don't see how anything is going to come from this.I mean look how sheared it is and the dry air is awful as well.

15.26 Clock:
The floods on the Elbe is probably assume similar dramatic proportions as in 2002 according to estimates by the Saxon Ministry of the Interior. "We expect the water level of nine meters plus X", it said the Interior Ministry in Dresden. Are threatened as the state capital Dresden all localities along the stream. Population and authorities should be set up in a similar situation as in the flood eleven years ago.

Lies mehr über News, Video and news headlines at RTL News - RTL.de bei translate.googleusercontent.com
1137. FOREX
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sorry but I just don't see how anything is going to come from this.I mean look how sheared it is and the dry air is awful as well.


I agree. If not for the dry air something might develop.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sorry but I just don't see how anything is going to come from this.I mean look how sheared it is and the dry air is awful as well.

Heavy rain will come from it. That's about it.
Very exciting for Southern Illinois! I like the look of all this rainfall over the next two weeks!! :D

1141. Mikla
For those that have not seen this, here is a site with some good training modules for satellite imagery.
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!
1143. flcanes
Quoting islander101010:
s floridians are going to doing the backstroke down alligator alley, heavy rains moving in thanks to keller

lol. That would be funny


Phased Array Radar of the ElReno, OK supercell.

(This was mentioned yesterday...)
1145. FOREX
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!


He's on my ignore list since yesterday. Where do you live Panhandle Chuck??
1146. flcanes
Quoting seminolesfan:


Phased Array Radar of the ElReno, OK supercell.

(This was mentioned yesterday...)

Did u see the pic that showed all the storm chasers locations?
Beautiful morning here in Southern Illinois!!! :-)

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!


Just a pot stirrer. Don't feed the trolls.
Quoting FOREX:


I agree. If not for the dry air something might develop.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Heavy rain will come from it. That's about it.
That is thye only real threat.Even if it were to become a tropical storm the winds wouldn't mean much because the rain will be really heavy at times.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!
anotheryear from what I've seen is well I don't want to say troll because their is nothing wrong with being skeptical when it comes to weather but they seem to downcast every event.
Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?
1151. flcanes
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beautiful morning here in Southern Illinois!!! :-)


Watch out, levee breaches r already happening in MO
Danube levees are breaking near the town of Deggendorf, at the villages of Fischerdorf and Winzer. The levee in Niederalteich is also in a critical condition.

Evacuations are happening right now...
Quoting FOREX:


He's on my ignore list since yesterday. Where do you live Panhandle Chuck??


Pensacola. How about you?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?
Unfortunately yes :(.That is why I've had to change it so much these last few weeks.So far this one is not causing a problem.The previous one I had with the zombie was deleted from the site completely and the others have copy right issues and plagerized signs on them so yeah...
1155. FOREX
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Pensacola. How about you?


Panama City Beach. Love Pensacola. Beautiful beach.
Quoting Luisport:
Danube levees are breaking near the town of Deggendorf, at the villages of Fischerdorf and Winzer. The levee in Niederalteich is also in a critical condition.

Evacuations are happening right now...
in the city of Halle, Germany, the water level is hitting 8 meters at the moment, with more to come. Normal level is around 2 meters. They've just anounced that it's past the previous hightest flood levels in the history of the city. Yesterday, they tried sandbagging around the local Tv/ media center, but it broke through early this morning causing millions of euros in water damage.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 74 degrees with a slight breeze.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
The GFS is painting the most probable scenario for this system that is going to impact Florida.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 74 degrees with a slight breeze.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.

THANK YOU. :-)
Quoting Luisport:
in the city of Halle, Germany, the water level is hitting 8 meters at the moment, with more to come. Normal level is around 2 meters. They've just anounced that it's past the previous hightest flood levels in the history of the city. Yesterday, they tried sandbagging around the local Tv/ media center, but it broke through early this morning causing millions of euros in water damage Link
Quoting flcanes:

Watch out, levee breaches r already happening in MO

Thanks for the heads up, Flcanes. I am actually well south and east of this event. This is primarily restricted to low lying areas in the Mississippi River floodplain.

-----------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC183-041930-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FF.W.0024.130604T0133Z-130604T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE BREACH...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 820 PM CDT...THE LEVEE NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 67 NEAR LINCOLN
SHIELDS...PROTECTING LAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BREACHED
AND WAS RAPIDLY FLOODING NEARBY LAND. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORTED FLASH FLOODING WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...WEST ALTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9012 3883 9015 3882 9018 3885 9025
3888 9029 3892 9027 3890 9022 3884 9011

$$

TES
RE 1091

My eyes are crossed and my head is ... just put it this way .... not even a second cup or 50 cups of coffee would help me get through what you just said! *lol*

Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Welcome back, Largo!

Finally, a grey drizzly morning over here. Not a leaf moving. Hope it stays around for a while. Getting close to moving those tools off the cistern cover and not wanting to!

Lindy
1163. RTLSNK
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?


The "Mods" have never had trouble with the moving Avatars,
someone in the community mentioned on sensitivethugs
blog that the moving Avatars were bothering them. Some
people can't watch 3-D movies, or have reactions to
those blue headlights that came out years ago, or get
a little vertigo when looking at moving stuff like that.

I have a little trouble with moving stuff like that
myself but I just go right by them without looking at
them. :)
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 74 degrees with a slight breeze.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
I have a question..Do you really cook all this stuff or is it a tease to get us hungry :).
Good morning from cloudy Longboat Key, Florida! We've only seen some very light and spotty showers this morning. Local weather stations are predicting up to 8" of rain over the next couple of days. No problem, we can handle that. Just don't want any strong winds to blow up out of this thing.
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)

1167. RTLSNK
Quoting washingtonian115:
Unfortunately yes :(.That is why I've had to change it so much these last few weeks.So far this one is not causing a problem.The previous one I had with the zombie was deleted from the site completely and the others have copy right issues and plagerized signs on them so yeah...


Morning wash, gee, I thought the zombie was ok. :)
Quoting RTLSNK:


The "Mods" have never had trouble with the moving Avatars,
someone in the community mentioned on sensitivethugs
blog that the moving Avatars were bothering them. Some
people can't watch 3-D movies, or have reactions to
those blue headlights that came out years ago, or get
a little vertigo when looking at moving stuff like that.

I have a little trouble with moving stuff like that
myself but I just go right by them without looking at
them. :)
I think he was talking about my other avatars.Like the one that had the zombie or the girls with the wink face.
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.
Quoting FOREX:


Maybe some wind??
brisk north wind bringing in drier air
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think he was talking about my other avatars.Like the one that had the zombie or the girls with the wink face.

Your avi's are very girly, and I like that. :-)
1172. flcanes
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Thanks for the heads up, Flcanes. I am actually well south and east of this event. This is primarily restricted to low lying areas in the Mississippi River floodplain.

-----------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC183-041930-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FF.W.0024.130604T0133Z-130604T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE BREACH...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 820 PM CDT...THE LEVEE NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 67 NEAR LINCOLN
SHIELDS...PROTECTING LAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BREACHED
AND WAS RAPIDLY FLOODING NEARBY LAND. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORTED FLASH FLOODING WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...WEST ALTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9012 3883 9015 3882 9018 3885 9025
3888 9029 3892 9027 3890 9022 3884 9011

$$

TES

Your welcome. I just hoped that you would know
‘Even the most experienced researchers and chasers are in danger’
NBCs Tom Costello spoke with Dr. Marshall Shepherd, President of the American Meteorological Society, about the risks and scientific benefits of storm chasing. Video
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.

Lucky you. I'm in the NW Cape. I've gotten 00.02 inches in the past 5 days lol. On and off sprinkles this a.m.
Good morning all.
1175. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)



Yep its in the centre of the Gulf According to Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, Jun. 4, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
395 statue miles (636 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
24.3N 89.3W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
1176. lhwhelk
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.

I'll feed the sausage to the dogs, but the rest sounds good!
Perfect dog-walking weather here at 76 degrees, and NO mosquitoes. None at all so far this year--hard to believe. Maybe 91-L will slosh some ocean into the marshes and we'll get the salt-marsh mosquitoes soon; they're nasty little things.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)

Looks like 91L kicked that one out. Watch for another to develop under the convection.

And Good Morning to all
Quoting mikatnight:



The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 33 feet) is the determining factor in the scale. This scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, it shows damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. However, this does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. When these additional factors are considered the rate of increase in damage is much higher. When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage. However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.

Remember, damage WILL occur with a 75 mph hurricane. The multiplier values are the potential damage increases above what could occur with a 75 mph storm. Note the rapid increase in potential damage just within each category. A 95 mph hurricane can produce nearly seven times the damage as a 75 mph hurricane with just a 20 mph increase in wind strength. A 10 mph increase in wind speed, from 100 mph to 110 mph, results in over doubling potential damage from 10-times that of a 75 mph hurricane to 21-times.

Source: NWS
So how are they getting the actual multiplier though? how do they measure these damages? In a wind tunnel or something? They don't really discuss their methods.
Quoting masonsnana:

Lucky you. I'm in the NW Cape. I've gotten 00.02 inches in the past 5 days lol. On and off sprinkles this a.m.
Good morning all.


Looking at the radar, you and your fellow Cape Coral residents should get a nice steady drizzle for the next few hours!
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.
"[A]ll the impressive rain Naples" has had? Over the past five days--May 31 through now--we've received just 1.29". As I stated earlier, we've mostly had overcast skies and very high humidity interrupted by the occasional passing shower. I learned years ago to take rainfall amount forecasts with a grain carton of salt, so I'm not really surprised. But given Friday's use of terms like "very heavy" and "extreme" rainfall, I'd be lying if said I wasn't expecting a little more than what we've had...
very impressive tropical wave in the central atlantic, for this early in the season.
15.38 Clock: Meissen will take power lines from the power


The Elbe rises and rises. The town of Meissen (Saxony) aims to take account of the high water single power cables from the power supply. "Preparations are going on," said Mayor Olaf Raschke (independent). If the same anschwelle as expected, it was necessary.

Previously, the water had flooded a protective wall in Meissen and had run into the old town. In the morning a water level of 8.06 meters was measured. The water rose thereafter to continue, residents were brought to safety. Especially the theater of the city made the workers concerned. There, the foyer was full. If the water reaches the ceiling, renovated after the 2002 flood areas would be destroyed again.
Quoting robintampabay:


Looking at the radar, you and your fellow Cape Coral residents should get a nice steady drizzle for the next few hours!

Would like steady rain, lawn is dead! lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Come on models trend west to north Ga not east to southeast GA....

going the wrong way
\

GA we dont want rain here... we had too much in May in Atlanta...

At least from my point of view.
Our rainfall forecast for the Keys over the last week has been pretty much spot on. I wish they would reset our rainfall totals a little more often though.

Another big rain event...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW
STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE FRONT.


HRRR predicting lots of rain for the Metro Orlando area today/tonight.

Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!
Quoting carolinabelle:
Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!


Maybe Ike 2008
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
\

GA we dont want rain here... we had too much in May in Atlanta...

At least from my point of view.

Totally agree. Even I am satisfied at the moment with the big rains we received last weekend. And you know me...I am the ultimate Rain Queen. :p
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
\

GA we dont want rain here... we had too much in May in Atlanta...

At least from my point of view.



It's been a while since then....flooding issues should be decreaed.
Trust me when summer comes it will be good to have had it.

(unless another storm hits)
Lakes holding steady @ full pool( w lanier over by a bit), a cushion would be nice.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"[A]ll the impressive rain Naples" has had? Over the past five days--May 31 through now--we've received just 1.29". As I stated earlier, we've mostly had overcast skies and very high humidity interrupted by the occasional passing shower. I learned years ago to take rainfall amount forecasts with a grain carton of salt, so I'm not really surprised. But given Friday's use of terms like "very heavy" and "extreme" rainfall, I'd be lying if said I wasn't expecting a little more than what we've had...


Hi Nea (and masonsnana) -- looks like it's been all Sound and no Fury so far! Hopefully we get the "big gulp" that most of the rest of the state has already had. The brown lawns and pale trees could use that rain that's lurking out there in the Gulf. It would be so nice to really get our growing season going in June, rather than waiting for July for the summer's rains to kick in.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Let me correct myself.

"power" is the 3rd power of the velocity of the fluid impacting an object, multiplied by density, and divided by 2. The must multiply by surface area, but since we are assuming the same targets in all cases, varying only wind speed, none of that matters. The division by 2 cancels, the density cancels, the surface area cancels, adn we are left only with velocity cubed.

Velocity cubed gives us 3 of those 8 powers.

Distance penetrated gives us probably only half of one power, not a full power.

Area/size of a storm is not correlated to wind speed, so it is detrimental to that chart.

After some thought, "breaking strength" is not another power, it is merely the point at which the product of all other powers overcomes "new" targets.

So really I can actually only explain about 3.5 to 4 powers through dimensional analysis.

The most relevant milestones would be:

Mobile home damaged but not destroyed
Mobile home destroyed
Slab house has some superficial damage
Slab house roof failure
Total failure of a conventional "stick" slab house
Total failure of a foam or other non-conventional slab house.
Levee over tops
Levee breaches
Partial failure of commercial buildings ( roof peel, windows, etc)
Total failure of a commercial building. (never seen it).
I agree with you that the numbers seem a bit high...but what formula are you using? I think the NWS needs to explain their stuff, not necessarily you. Does it really make sense (in general) that an 80 mph storm produces 1.6x more damage than a 75 mph storm?! That doesn't seem right.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



It's been a while since then....trust me when summer comes it will be good to have had it.


yes, it comes and takes years to dry up... if it was a good quick-shot event only to wet things...yeah but it's not like that really here.


91L and more more storms like that we'll have to endure...
Quoting carolinabelle:
Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!
Which I could answer Ike comes close though well recently at least.
We had an inch 1.0 over the last 3 days at my gage.

I hope central florida is getting a good soak, the Ocklawaha basin needs it badly. Lakes like Apopka are still a foot down below minimum desirable levels and even further below regulation schedules.

Initiation progged for around 16z...


@19z things start cranking up...



21z...


00z 6/5...



LOOP LINK
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.


My six day rain total in Fort Myers along the Caloosahatchee is 3.06. Most of that came in a Friday late afternoon soaker (2.05). I'm with you that we will not see the 20+ inches the models have been throwing out.
Some high wispy clouds. But you know what they say about those. The let in almost the same amount of UV as a clear blue sky would. The only big difference is that they trap heat much better. So photosynthesis down here in Southern Illinois is going well. Plants, trees, shrubs, crops, and all vegetation are happy!
Quoting newt3d:


The issue here is that we're not measuring the force generated by wind, we're measuring the monetary cost of a storm with that wind speed.

Storms with higher wind speed, in addition to having more wind force, also:

1. Have more storm surge
2. Can impact a larger area (mainly due to taking longer to dissipate).

Additionally, cost generally goes up when infrastructure is destroyed. It's easy to repair one damaged house. It's much harder if you need to avoid downed power lines, clear debris, build a road to that house, and bring all the food, water, and sanitation with you that will be required while you repair that house.
Isn't it the damage that they are measuring?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like 91L kicked that one out. Watch for another to develop under the convection.

And Good Morning to all


Another one is developing as we speak and moving north north east. It's broad located around 22-23n and 88w. It and the other center to the north west are rotating around each other at the moment. I believe once either they spin into each other or the northern one gets ejected out later today we'll finally get our development from this system as the shear appears to have fallen over the system to levels that would allow some development.

The only draw back is the dry air but since shears not blasting that into the system as bad with all the moisture to the east it can fight it. It appears the reason for the lowering of the shear is a developing upper level vort max near the cyclone as seen from the cimss maps. This could mean we'll see something more along the lines of a subtropical storm.
All this storm has to do is survive for 2 days (48 Hours) in it's general location to enter somewhat favorable conditions. The shear is going to drop off a good bit which should help to limit the amount dry air being flushed into the system. Then we will see this storm get a name.

That is a big IF though, it has to survive until then, and it will have a bit of a rough time doing so.
All the lake levels in Atlanta look ready for summer, only a smidge over summer levels. Fantastic.
Thanks for the replies trHUrrIXC5MMX & washingtonian115 - Ike was definitely a strong one!
1205. LargoFl
well by me, except for a great downpour for a half hour last week I havent had much rain, maybe a slight sprinkle here and there..local met says possibly 6 inches in the coming days..we'll see what happens..usually these storms coming up the coast tend to push their rains inland going right over me,hopefully not this time..right now just overcast, no rain here yet..local met says wens,thurs are the days to watch..
1206. barbamz
Wakeboarding in a flood (video on liveleak). No one should say Germans aren't cool and funny, sometimes at least, lol. (But of course, I'm not sure it's a German guy; however it is in Germany.).
16.04 Clock: "Very, very serious situation"


On the Elbe in Lower Saxony for the weekend, a record-high water is expected. The authorities fear that the water levels might exceed that of the flood of the century in 2002. "We must be prepared for a very, very serious situation," said Environment Minister Stefan Wenzel (Green) in Hanover. "I expect that we must proclaim an emergency alert, even as a precaution to ensure that all people are in the right place at the right time."

After the situation on the Aller, Leine and Weser has eased the situation on the Elbe now threatens to become much more threatening than the floods of the past days in Lower Saxony, Wenzel said. When the same peaked, is unclear. This is expected between Thursday and Sunday.
Quoting carolinabelle:
Thanks for the replies trHUrrIXC5MMX & washingtonian115 - Ike was definitely a strong one!


we are here for you (When I can in my case)... call me Max.
Wanna guess this hurricane season forecast numbers??? try it!, head to my blog to drop them off... over 125 did already.
Convections is increasing near the center this is because shear is decreasing. Yes shear is at 20 but it is decreasing as noted here Link

I belive at the next TWO the odds will be upped to 35-40% The relaxing shear is noted on the ships intensity models which is why ships is predicting a tropical storm wheras yesterday it was barely predicting a depression. Overall the longer is stays drifting the larger the window 91L has.
1210. LargoFl
well lets see what the 12 pm update says.............
Link


If you speed up the loop to max you can see rotation. Or am I completely missing something?
Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.
It was a cool morning here in D.C..the weather does get into the lower to mid 80's later on in the week with added muggy conditions.But after 2012 I'm sure everyone is use to the heat.
Quoting FOREX:


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
Quoting VR46L:


Yep its in the centre of the Gulf According to Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, Jun. 4, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
395 statue miles (636 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
24.3N 89.3W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data



I agree with the coordinates.

However, it is very bad news for development, as the storms are all so far away from the circulation.

Perhaps if the circulation gets totally ejected to the west, a new one would form under the convection, but that would take days to complete such a cycle with all the shear and dry air...
Quoting LargoFl:
well lets see what the 12 pm update says.............
Welcome back to the blog LargoFL. Ready for the potential rainfall threat?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.


actually Ga doesnt get that hot...

record high is 106 in atl in 2012

esp in humid areas near the coast in the midatlantic or in the hot areas of the central plains, it gets and feels way hotter.

here it just stays warmer longer but its not bad at all.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was a cool morning here in D.C..the weather does get into the lower to mid 80's later on in the week with added muggy conditions.But after 2012 I'm sure everyone is use to the heat.


yeah, thanks.
I was told about 91F recorded in my town north of NYC... heck?
It was wrong btw!
Naked Swirl beginning to get some convection around it.
16.00 Clock: The current water levels


Dresden - Elbe: 767 cm, and rising

Meissen - Elbe: 836 cm, and rising

Magdeburg - Elbe: 479 cm, and rising

Passau - Danube 1061 cm, Trend steady

Regensburg - Danube: 682 cm, Trend steady

Halle-Trotha - count: 773 cm, Trend steady
Where does that supposed storm in the central atlantic come from?.Interesting enough the shear model (although not to be trusted more than 2 days out) shows favorable shear.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


actually Ga doesnt get that hot...

record high is 106 in atl in 2012

esp in humid areas near the coast in the midatlantic or in the hot areas of the central plains, it gets and feels way hotter.

here it just stays warmer longer but its not bad at all.


Im cool with that, longer warm days... unlike NYC.

Im my case when temps go above 95F my body doesn't work well...I just can't take that.
16.28 Clock: Along the same are packed sandbags


In the north there is growing concern about a new record flood. Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern expected for the weekend, and possibly only start of the week with the highest water levels. Along the Elbe are packed sandbags.

Morning meet representatives of the state government and the affected counties to a first crisis meeting in Lower Saxony Bleckede.
I know this is going to be greatly expanded but for now...



edit... I might try to work out a map for this by the evening...
Quoting LargoFl:
well by me, except for a great downpour for a half hour last week I havent had much rain, maybe a slight sprinkle here and there..local met says possibly 6 inches in the coming days..we'll see what happens..usually these storms coming up the coast tend to push their rains inland going right over me,hopefully not this time..right now just overcast, no rain here yet..local met says wens,thurs are the days to watch..
Welcome back LargoFl,we started this 2013 Hurricane Season with potential a lot!!! of rain for our Estate and potential for tropical development.
1229. hydrus
Looks like the shear is toasted.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)


If it gets any further, it will most likely dissipate and a new low will form closer to the convection.
-HurricaneDean07
Hi Folks, another season upon us. I am looking forward to Dr. Master's discussions, Thanks Doc. Looking forward to the wonderful insight provided by the WU members. Thanks Members. Good to be here again. Praying and hoping for a safe season. Thanks, Bob
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi Folks, another season upon us. I am looking forward to Dr. Master's discussions, Thanks Doc. Looking forward to the wonderful insight provided by the WU members. Thanks Members. Good to be here again. Praying and hoping for a safe season. Thanks, Bob
You can read my blog under hurricane season 2013.
Published on Jun 3, 2013

May 31st El Reno Oklahoma tornado with Tempest Tours.

We were at this site for about 10 minutes prior to the tornado. The new mesocyclone/lowered base to the east of the initial base appeared very quickly and then moved south southeast towards with "egg beater" multiple vortices, forcing us to quickly head south out of danger.

GoPro Hero 2 footage shot from front windshield. GoPro Hero 1 footage shot from exterior windshield pointing backwards.




they almost got caught too.

That southward loop then northward turn of the tornado was certainly a tricky situation.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

If it gets any further, it will most likely dissipate and a new low will form closer to the convection.
-HurricaneDean07



why the new name?
Is that your name?
Quoting mikatnight:
#1091 -

You are so far over my head...

Somebody...help!


New damage benchmarks are reached when the "Power" (physics unit) of the wind over comes the strength of the objects being affected by the wind: Trees, fences, different types of residential, commercial and industrial buildings, etc. Each of these have vastly different strengths, and occur in vastly different amounts.

This is why the real curve should not follow a continuous 8th power curve. There are far more mobile homes and conventional "stick" houses than there are commercial and industrial buildings.

Once you pass the breaking strength of a slab house's roof, there is not much more threshold for damage until you reach total structural collapse.

If you blow down half the walls in a house, it will be condemned anyway, and will need to be rebuild from the foundation up, so a storm 5 or 10mph stronger wiping the slab clean doesn't actually do more economic damage, since the net loss is the same either way.

Replacing a roof might cost you $15k to $30k or so, depending on how steep the roof is and how big the house is. Replacing the entire house is a couple hundred thousand. But then once you get above the point where total structural failure occurs, there is nothing remaining to be destroyed, so damage doesn't go up any more, re: asymptote.

From Wikipedia.

Top 20 costliest atlantic hurricanes (in U.S. dollars).

Costliest Atlantic hurricanes
Billions Name Year References
$108.0 Hurricane Katrina 2005 [1]
$50.0 Hurricane Sandy 2012 [2][3]
$37.5 Hurricane Ike 2008 [4][5][6]
$29.2 Hurricane Wilma 2005 [7][8][9][10]
$26.5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 [11]
$23.0 Hurricane Ivan 2004 [4][12][13]
$16.6 Hurricane Irene 2011 [14][15][16]
$16.0 Hurricane Charley 2004 [4][13]
$12.0 Hurricane Rita 2005 [17]
$10.2 Hurricane Gilbert 1988 [18]
$9.7 Hurricane Georges 1998 [4][19][20][21][22][23]
$9.5 Hurricane Frances 2004 [4]
$9.0 Tropical Storm Allison 2001 [4]
$8.6 Hurricane Jeanne 2004 [4][13][24][25]
$8.5 Hurricane Hugo 1989 [4][26]
$8.2 Hurricane Mitch 1998 [27][28][29][30][31]
$6.9 Hurricane Floyd 1999 [4]
$6.6 Hurricane Gustav 2008 [4][5]
$5.4 Hurricane Isabel 2003 [4]
$5.1 Hurricane Opal 1995 [4]


Ironically, half the category 4 landfalls aren't even in the top 10.

Of these, if I remember right, Andrew is the only one which made landfall as a category 5 storm, but it's damage is doubled by category 1 Sandy, and quadrupled by category 3(official) Katrina.

All of the top 5 were fast movers on the U.S. landfalls, so issues like inland rainfall were not skewed by forward movement speeds. Thus they are good examples of the damage potential of a storm of a given category. Of these top 5 storms, the 165mph landfalling Andrew did the least damage, even though it hit the most heavily populated location.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im cool with that, longer warm days... unlike NYC.

Im my case when temps go above 95F my body doesn't work well...I just can't take that.


Well that'll happen a few times w humidity.
Just be ready for the occasional 70s in december or january.
And maybe you'll bring some snow luck with you.
It's been a while.
1240. 7544
nice big red ball now with 91L still think it will be further south in the comin model runs imo

and welcome back largo !
Quoting Luisport:
16.00 Clock: The current water levels


Dresden - Elbe: 767 cm, and rising

Meissen - Elbe: 836 cm, and rising

Magdeburg - Elbe: 479 cm, and rising

Passau - Danube 1061 cm, Trend steady

Regensburg - Danube: 682 cm, Trend steady

Halle-Trotha - count: 773 cm, Trend steady


We don't know what to make of that without a reference for flood stages and home/business elevations at those locations.
Hear the latest on the one buoy actually located in the Southern half of the convective ball off the Yucatan:

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Tue, 4 Jun 2013 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (140°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 78.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F

Here in Southeast Georgia it DOES get awefully hot to me. It's the humidity of course. And we DO need rain. Maybe Atlanta doesn't, but we do.
I don't want people to get too excited about 91L. But a spectacular analog to 91L would be Tropical Storm Barry in 2007. Barry developed and moved slowly along and near the Yucatan Peninsula. It developed fairly slowly and then took off and became a 60 MPH Tropical Storm and quickly slammed into and just north of Tampa while producing a little bit rain all the way up the 95 corridor. It developed in the face of heavy shear. I think 91L is a pretty good canindate for a Barry wannabeLink
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where does that supposed storm in the central atlantic come from?.Interesting enough the shear model (although not to be trusted more than 2 days out) shows favorable shear.
What do mean favorable shear.
1246. Buhdog
feeling very tropical here in Southwest Florida. Been lurking.
1247. marsHen
water temperatures in suwannee sound, approaching 30C, 86F. very high new moon tide at noon today in cedar key so if we get 2-3 ft. more from storm, causeway might flood.