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Invest 91 not expected to develop; wild June weather continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008

A tropical wave approaching the coast of South America near the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has developed some spin and a bit a heavy thunderstorm activity. This disturbance has been labeled Invest 91 by NHC this morning, but does not appear to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Water temperatures are warm enough and shear is low enough to allow some development, but dry air on the west side of the disturbance is limiting its thunderstorm activity. The disturbance should move ashore over South America by Thursday before a tropical depression can form.

Wind shear is very high over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain high for the coming week. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the coming week. However, wind shear is forecast to be low along the northern coast of South America and in the waters offshore of Panama and Coast Rica. We will need to watch this area for development early next week when the moisture from Invest 91 arrives.

Wild June weather across the U.S.
It's good to be back blogging again! I had a great week of relaxing and recharging in the Bitteroot Mountains of Montana the past week. It was pretty nuts to go for a hike yesterday--35° with heavy snow and driving wind--then come back to the sweltering east with the vegetation going bonkers from all the heavy rain of the past week. An unusually pronounced kink in the jet stream is responsible, which allows cold air to spill southward over the Western U.S., while at the same time pumping plenty of hot, moist air northwards into the Eastern U.S. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model indicates a continuation of a more active than usual jet stream the remainder of June, so expect plenty more wild weather this month. The main action today will be in Iowa, Nebraska, and eastern Kansas, which the Storm Prediction Center has placed at "Moderate" risk of severe weather.

Jeff Masters
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Reader Comments

Welcome back, Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the update.
welcome back
INVEST 91L

IT'S NATURAL FOR HURRICANE WATCHERS TO GET EXCITED OVER AN INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE EARLY HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER, AS STATED IN MY EARLIER FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY, WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE BERTHA UNTIL ABOUT JULY 10, POSSIBLY LATER.

REGARDING 91L, THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER DESK IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES THAT A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- SHEAR, THE LATITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

I WILL KEEP YOU ADVISED OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.

//FORECASTER//STROMTOP
Aw...cute, our first baby invest.
1418. moonlightcowboy 4:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1414. And, the BAMMS are probably more accurate at this point than most of any others would be. Of course, doesn't look like some of them are even picking it up yet! LOL, it'll be interesting to see the GFDL get on here and start squirming back and forth and around.


The GFDL doesn't do too well with these type of weak systems. Will be interesting to see the run though.
Thanks, Doc!

Ugh, more severe weather!
well atleast it is an early start to activity in the atlantic wonder if that is a precursor of things to come
LOL, Drak, yeah, that's why I mentioned it "squirming" about! But, you're wrong - it usually does quite AWFUL with cyclogenesis!
10. IKE
Welcome back doc...and thanks....hope your trip to Montana went well.
Link

Invest 91
The new GFS 12z run looks interesting. Its wants to form a closed low of the tail end of a surface cold front in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Sanity returns to the entrys!!!

Now as to to midwest.
FOlks are really getting it on the chin.
Iowa to get more today too.
Emg Mgt have there hands full up there.
Welcome back Doc! I'm not so sure it will die going into SA. I think there's a chance it could skirt the coast and end up in the Caribbean. At least we have something to talk about regardless!
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the coming week.

Thanks Dr. M for answering my question from this morning.....Welcome Back....Clearly, "disturbed" weather has become a year round issue this year....From this prolonged severe weather threat across the US, which started several months ago, right into Hurrican Season...Whew...
12. Yep, Drak, that is interesting. And, good point earlier with the BAMMS, too! Thanks.
The rain is setting up big time here in Barbados & the wind has picked up as well
Np, MLC.
The disturbance should move ashore over South America by Thursday before a tropical depression can form.

OR



Based on that map 456, it should skirt the South American coast.
21. cchsweatherman 12:41 PM AST on June 11, 2008
Based on that map 456, it should skirt the South American coast.


Yep....and its even more evident on visible satellite animations.
23. 786
Thanks Dr. M. First invest headed to the Caribbean (possibly). Who knows what will happen, so far people have said that climatology doesn't favour this or that, systems under 10N, shear and SST's in June....but last year broke a series of records that climatology didn't favour and this year we have already had systems that peeps would have said had no chance from the get go so we wait and see now....I think we will see it develop futher than expected
CCH, can i have the link to ur website?....i'm updating my bookmarks. TIA
26. IKE
12. Drakoen 11:30 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
The new GFS 12z run looks interesting. Its wants to form a closed low of the tail end of a surface cold front in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.


Interesting....
STROMTOP 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
INVEST 91L

IT'S NATURAL FOR HURRICANE WATCHERS TO GET EXCITED OVER AN INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE EARLY HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER, AS STATED IN MY EARLIER FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY, WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE BERTHA UNTIL ABOUT JULY 10, POSSIBLY LATER.

REGARDING 91L, THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER DESK IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES THAT A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- SHEAR, THE LATITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

I WILL KEEP YOU ADVISED OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.

//FORECASTER//STROMTOP


I have more faith in a 2 year old kid's forecasts then yours.
28. IKE
I have more faith in a 2 year old kid's forecasts then yours.

LOL.
I'm curios why they even made a tcfa out of 91. I mean its in 30 knots of shear. Guess NHC got excited.
26. IKE 4:51 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
12. Drakoen 11:30 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
The new GFS 12z run looks interesting. Its wants to form a closed low of the tail end of a surface cold front in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Interesting....


Yea. We'll see what happens... the tropics may wake back up again. That kind of development is right with climatology where you get some spinning along the frontal axis and eventually that low cuts of.
July 23rd.
29. Spetrm 4:54 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
I'm curios why they even made a tcfa out of 91. I mean its in 30 knots of shear. Guess NHC got excited.


Actually it's under 5-10 knots of wind shear.
Maybe today yesterday it was getting pretty hard by what I was looking at, I agree with you jp though, no development for the next few days. I'll check back in with this thing when it gets past the windward islands in to the carib and possibly the gulf.
36. IKE
34. jphurricane2006 11:58 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
seriously Admin, how long are going to let this same joke go on and on

the flock of Storm names has been going on since 2006, its time for them to give it a rest


I agree...enough!

This morning we have...

STROMTOP and STORMTTOP.
DOCMASTERS=KILLJOY
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
27.

I'm 12 so i hope you have faith in mine....
Weatherblog, they might mention it at 2pm. We will see. Not too concerned about anything right now.
One thing I have to say is that the disaster management, at least here in IC, seems to be pretty on the ball. The sandbagging operation seems quite well organized. Every site I worked at yesterday had regular sand deliveries, plenty of bags, lots of volunteers, a few paid people helping out with the labor, and several people knowing exactly what needed to go where. There were also ample donations of food and drinks, although they seemed to assume that nobody sandbagging would be a vegetarian :P

From what I understand, though, things may be getting tougher. Supposedly, they're running low on sand and many sand pits are either flooding or becoming blocked. Supplies of bags are reportedly running low, too. And some cities really messed up, such as Mason City in the north, where a levee broke and all hell broke loose. But down here in IC, at least at the moment, people are pushing forward nonstop to try to protect our city against the upcoming 4 1/2 feet of additional water.
Gee, thanks, CA, for posting a full quote of that ignored blogger's post. Making him have a reason to be here...
STROMTOP 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
INVEST 91L

IT'S NATURAL FOR HURRICANE WATCHERS TO GET EXCITED OVER AN INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE EARLY HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER, AS STATED IN MY EARLIER FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY, WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE BERTHA UNTIL ABOUT JULY 10, POSSIBLY LATER.

Explain this further Mr. Stromtop? What prevents anything from forming between then when the water is more than warm enough and the shear is decreasing?
Yea, as you guys are saying, it's strange for them to not even mention the disturbance in their last TWO, but they declare it an invest?...hmm. My best guess is the TWAVE started organizing after the 8 am TWO was already out. So, it'll most likely be mentioned in the next one at 2 pm saying development is unlikley due to interaction with South America.
25. Weather456 12:50 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
CCH, can i have the link to ur website?....i'm updating my bookmarks. TIA


Here you go.
Link
I'm going to update my site later today on Invest 91L once we get more data and computer models in.
38. weatherblog 1:01 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Bare in mind that this was written at 8Am, before the invest was declared.

50. 786
I think it will likely start a more northward track and skirt SA. Not sure after that how far North it will travel. Regardless, if it makes it into the Caribbean sea then I think we'll def. have to watch this for development. and the stronger it gets the more likely it will get pulled North right??

If it were to continue W with its centre over SA then it will have a very little chance of development and will prob. dissipate over land.

I agree that nothing significant will happen till next week.
Link

good afternoon everyone,according to this map,wind shear should drop across the caribean sea,so is a wait and see game withthis invest.
Pretty wild picture from Waterloo - looking past the raging river you realize that right on the other side of that wall it the tops of electrical poles and two story buildings. I'd be scared out of my mind if I was standing on the other side of that wall. I guess they're used to it.
53. afj3
First time posting here. I love this site.
Hello again all. I just love this place.

Yesterday somebody actually said hi back!! Also, my persistant rain dance brought a sprinkle or two to my yard...but I guess I gotta keep dancing.

I am about an hours drive southwest of Houston.

Thanks for all the weather chat.
55. CJ5
Interesting, I get busy doing some real work and our little blob turns into 91L. There is much to overcome with this one.
We need to get something straight regarding the CIMSS Shear Tendency Map that yamil20 posted. ITS NOT A FORECAST, rather the difference in shear from 24 hours ago. Please make sure you all interpret your graphs correctly. Thanks.
47. jphurricane2006

I'm hoping the admin can see they won't answer the question with any common sense or weather related knowledge, then maybe they'll be banned.
59. 786
LOL rainrain HI! and welcome
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall last year Felix went from Invest into "the perfect storm" in maybe 72 hours in that area, although later in the season, didn't it?
Not saying that's going to happen now, especially this early in the season, but it's better to be safe than sorry.
j
54. rainraingoaway

Your screen name may be canceling out your rain dance!
its time admin put a stop to it once and for all

Unless, of course, it IS admin doing it. Hmmm, unlikely, but how would we know?

A LOT of new names in here. Hi all. Everyone is welcome unitl...
56. cchsweatherman
thanks or your advice.thats why i love this place,because you learn something new.
;) Thanks 786. ....and oh...by the way...I am NOT somebody under a new screenname "hiding" out, lol.

Just a little old gal that likes to weatherwatch but yet still cant figure out how to put a picture by my name instead of the stick figure!!
29. Spetrm

A TCFA was issued? Or, are you just referring to an invest?
do not give them the satisfaction of reposting their posts or asking them to explain

I second that. If no one responded at all, he will get bored go watch square-Bob sponge-pants.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111709
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TRINIDAD IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VENEZUELA
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
A TCFA was issued? Or, are you just referring to an invest?

Ya know I looked back navy didnt put out an TCFA, to smart for that we are! LOL Just the invest I suppose then.
456
do you have any knowledge of a low pressure area forming near 10n 40w in ten days time according to the gfs and the UKmet?
69. Drakoen

Looks like more of the same; are they predicting a southerly course change? By the looks of the current movement, it is more WNW, and will pretty much clear SA and cross over Port of Spain...
do you have any knowledge of a low pressure area forming near 10n 40w in ten days time according to the gfs and the UKmet?
Looks like that may be Invest 91
I'm very surprised they even put a label (91L)on this system considering it will be a dead deal once it hits land tonight. Seems like to me they would have just let it be. Doesn't seem worthy of even an invest in my opinion.
73. Floodman 1:34 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
69. Drakoen

Looks like more of the same; are they predicting a southerly course change? By the looks of the current movement, it is more WNW, and will pretty much clear SA and cross over Port of Spain...


I must agree with you. I don't think that this will move into South America.
It seems that it will not hit the coast, judging by previous comments.
75. OUSHAWN 1:37 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
I'm very surprised they even put a label (91L)on this system considering it will be a dead deal once it hits land tonight. Seems like to me they would have just let it be. Doesn't seem worthy of even an invest in my opinion.


I wouldn't be so sure there. As we have come to learn over the past several seasons, EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. I just don't think with the present course it has held for quite some time that Invest 91L will make landfall in South America.
the area 7N 48W is showing a little activity within the ITCZ. I will keep an eye on this area as it appears to following the path of 91L.
I guess we will see. Even if it does actually miss the coast I just think it will still be close enough to bring in way too much dry air from land. It would really need to gain some latitude in a hurry to avoid pulling in that dry air.
Anybody live in Trinidad here? Would love to hear reports as this moves through your area.
Might this be the first real indication of steering currents? Is the High permanently ensconced acoss the Atlantic to the East coast of CONUS?
82. OUSHAWN 1:44 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
I guess we will see. Even if it does actually miss the coast I just think it will still be close enough to bring in way too much dry air from land. It would really need to gain some latitude in a hurry to avoid pulling in that dry air.


Its been feeding off the ITCZ moisture which has been moving in tandem with the wave. I don't think dry air will impede it much. The biggest question mark is the shear.
It certainly doesn't have to make landfall in S.A. to be torn apart by it. Take a look at T.S. Earl in '04.
They actually ran the GFDL on it. Of course the GFDL doesn't do anything with it though.
The HWRF thinks it could survive the trek and moving up north into the Central Caribbean.
The HWRF has Invest 91L skirting across northern South America the emerging into the Central Caribbean, briefly turning into a tropical storm before moving north into Central Cuba.
83. cchsweatherman
Anybody live in Trinidad here? Would love to hear reports as this moves through your area.


Yes, there are a few of us, most notably Pottery. At least there is some excitement here. Haven't had a good rain shower in a while.
I definitely thought that Lili formed in the Windwards?
Long shot I know, but it looks like if the invest stays a little west of the HWRF model guidance then maybe, just maybe, FL could get a little rain from this. I realize this is a long shot but we could really use the rain.
What IM interested in is that wave behind 91L.
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SFC MAP ALONG
45W S OF 12N
BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE SSMI-DERIVED
TPW THAT SHOWS A PEAK OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...
850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N.

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 10N54W 10N59W 9N62W.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED FROM
AFRICA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 16W-22W. CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
INDICATES SOME WIND SHIFT AROUND 20W. WILL WAIT FOR THE 1800 UTC
DATA TO HAVE BETTER INDICATIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
AFOREMENTIONED.

The ECMWF 12z and BAM suite 18z should be coming out soon.
That wave behind 91L is too low in latitude.
Can someone post a link to the page with all the models please.. thank you
85. DocBen

Currently the high (I assume you mean the A/B High) is centered in the Atlantic; not that close to CONUS
storms really popping in the south and the north florida
Drak, I'm not getting a chance to look at much
today, busy; but, just glancing at it 91L appears
to be building some convection. What do you think? ;P
Just make sure they pop over W. FL:-)
nash,not much in between
Funnel Cloud reported with convection storms earlier today over Alabama coast
Nope. Got screwed yesterday as the boundaries kicked back toward the east unexpectedly, which kept the seabreeze collision well east of Tampa.

Hopefully today, we'll get the collision.
Gert ages ago crossed over N Venezuela killed scores in landslides later made a mess in N Mexico
Do we have any idea what the steering currents are setting up to be this year? Are we expecting recurves, east coast strikes, GOM, or central American strikes?
103. nash28

Same old story in NWFL, nice storm developing and moving north totally missing areas along the coast. Rain for Crestview, no rain for FWB or Destin.
The sun is shinning bright here again in Barbados
Does anyone have the link to the models page
102. moonlightcowboy 6:23 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Drak, I'm not getting a chance to look at much
today, busy; but, just glancing at it 91L appears
to be building some convection. What do you think? ;P


Its trying to...
Convection with 91L is firing up more to the north in the latest satellite image, could that be a sign it's moving more north or that the any eye blob is readjusting further to the north giving it a better chance of missing SA???
Thanks, Drak. I thought so, too. It must be those warmer temps on the west side of the ATL getting some lift and causing convection to fire.
Post 83.
Hi, I'm from Trinidad. Here for the first time. Nice to see we'll be getting some rain. Have been reading posts and lurking since 2006. I have certainly learnt a lot. I finally decided to throw in my two bits even though I don't know much. Wanna thank you guys for all the information which I get here.
Nothing much is happening in our neck of the woods presently, sun is hot!!!!!!!!!! not raining or anything as yet. I hope this would change soon. We need some rain, everything is so dry.
118. ttweathergirl

Welcome to the WU blog! I think you'll definitely get some rain soon if not from 91L the other tropical wave right behind it.
drak
the wave behind 91L it is true is a bit too low in lat but there is a spin and the movement is wnw which will make it gain some lat. at the moment it looks healthier than 91L. Dry air from the west seems to getting entranged into 91L and weakening it somewhat.
Thank you 69Viking. The rains will certainly be welcome
Where in Trinidad are you located, ttweathergirl?
The wave behind 91L is moving west with most of the 850mb vorticity maxima below 5N. Also that wave is being supported by the diffluent flow aloft from an upper level ridge extending outward from an upper level high in the Central Atlantic providing for better upper level divergence. Also this wave too, most of the moisture in within the intersection of the wave axis and the ITCZ.
HWRF must be drinking some of that CMC koolaid:

F = 66 h
Min Pressure = 996.01 hPa
Max 10m wind = 92.4 knots
shTT. where are you located?
Afternoon!

I see weve got our 2nd tropical invest approaching the islands.First thing i would like to note is development here is not likely at this time as the low-level swirl with this thing is already going poof also conditions across the eastern caribbean are very hostile for significant development.Iam a tad more concerned about the area to the east of it once it makes it over into the sw caribbean in the coming days. Adrian
The koolaid makes things all more interesting.
Yep, convection trying to get going in the GOM, not so dry there anymore.

Link
131. DestinJeff

You must have just started your season then because I've seen it several times just in the past few weeks. Might have even used it myself! BTW, where are you if you're 5 miles inland and have Destin in your name? I live near Hurlburt Field.
There goes the GOM Blowing up....these next couple of days just might be interesting after all...
Adrian, I'd tend to agree with that, but on visible it appears to be building some convection. "IF" it moves slowly and stays low in latitude over those warmer waters and under the heavier shear to its north and away from land, it may have a slim chance. Big "IFs", right? lol

And, like the Doc said, too, when it gets in that area of the swCarib something could happen then.

But, Drak mentioned something earlier about the GFS (I think) seeing something in about a week off the tail of a front forming in the neGOM. And, I didn't want to say anything this morning, but last night, unless my eyes were fuzzy from sleep deprivation, I could swear I saw some broad, low-level circulation near the Yucatan.

So, anyways, it looks like, climatologically, we're rolling along fairly normal. But, indeed, it would be quite interesting if that twave or another happens to sneek up and surprise us!
133. Nolehead

If anything I just want some rain out of it. Tired of Crestview and Defuniak getting it all!
129. Drakoen 7:23 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
The koolaid makes things all more interesting.


I am likely the only person in this room that remembers the really interesting koolaid...LOL

Wish I had me a cup right now (ooops, was that my outside voice?)
lol Floodman...



i hear ya, we had a 10 min shower and that was it..local radar is lit up like a xmas tree to the north of us...go figure!!
hurricane 23
i was also looking at that area7n 48w
i know what you mean floodman...hey KOOL-AID!!
Yep...a little technicolor refreshment in the afternoon makes the whole day seem better, somehow; or maybe that should be different...LOL
LMAO, "technicolor refreshment!"
Just the fact that we have an invest that originated as a wave off of africa in Mid June tells you something...it has been amazing to see these strong pulses coming off of Africa this early....this one wont develop but maybe a sign of things to come
Now, as for the wave behind 91L, it's going to have to gain a lot of lattitude; at 6 or 7N it's lacking a little coriolis for spin, and the shear to it's north isn't going to do it any favors
it just makes those BLOBS look more interesting is all...lol
MLC from what iam seeing the small swirl with this invest is moving almost on a due west direction towards land which could possibly bring it inland in the coming hours.Having said that the 12z surface analysis kinda keeps of shore moving on a wnw direction into the caribbean.Even if that happens conditions are hostile for any signifcant development.Here is what the NHC had to say a short while ago. Adrian

Here is a view of the 12z surface map.

MLC, one must get one's recreation where one may...for mself, I've always enjoyed colors...and trails...
127. ttweathergirl
shTT. where are you located


I'm currently in Point Fortin, leaving for San Fernando soon. Convection might miss the southern part of the island.
Thanks for the update!

Hi guys...
Howdy smmc! How goes the mom thing?
146. hurricane23

Actually that is what FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
had to say about it without checking with all of the experts on this blog! LOL!
It goes Floodman! My blog gives details if you would like...

How are you these days? Behaving yourself?
Oh, smmc, if you only knew...no fun in behaving, you know?
shTT... I hear you. I'm leaving work now. Will check in later to see what is happening with the weather. See you all!!!!!!!!
I hear what you are barking big dog!!!


Looks like Invest 91L will be moving through Trinidad and the southern Windwards into the extreme Southern Caribbean sea.
So long ttweathergirl
smmc, you going through Port Lavaca reminds me that I haven't been to Port A in a while...
The wave behind 91L has some respectible vorticity:

153. Floodman

It's amazing how "most" men think alike!
Hmmm...lost a post there somewhere...here it is without the graphic:
The wave behind 91L has some respectable vorticity with it Vorticity
viking, is that a good comment or one that should worry me (I'm a man, so I'm a bit obtuse at times...LOL)?
Port A is nice... way better than Galveston, that's for sure! I love Rockport too though. It may have something to do with the free stay at my parent's house and mom's good cooking!
Who's doing what in Port Lavaca?

Don't hear that town mentioned very often...elaborate please.
166. JLPR2
ha! lol wow the tropical wave became 91L wow lol
every time I say wait no that wont develop it develops =P
162. Floodman

No worries, I'm just agreeing with you and no I'm not living in California or Massachusetts.
163. smmcdavid
164. roxycc

Roxy, I went to smmc's blog and noted that she had been in Port Lavaca (that does mean "port of the cows" does it not?) over the weekend, which reminded me that I hadn't been in Port Aransas for a while.

smmc, I've only been through Rockport once or twice; my wife has relatives that used to live there. I love Port A because it's a gaudy little beach tourist town...I love that kind of stuff, reminds me of being a teenager and tearing up and down the east coast of Florida
I stick to going to Kemah...it's only a stone's throw away from me. I don't ever go down to Galveston...too damn dirty for my taste.
Might be the farewell to good old high pressure around florida with our rain chances going up significantly next week.

NWS Miami a bit ago.

AT ANY
RATE, IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
Nice work, Storm
167. 69Viking

LOL
I agree oushawn...
169. OUSHAWN

Right on...Kemah's nice
146. Thanks, Adrian. The low level swirl looks to me like it's already going to pass just north of Venezuela, almost right over Trinidad. And, it's lookin' vigorous, but might skinny, too! lol

Afternoon all. So what is our little wave doing today? Looks like it made it to Invest status? What is the shear doing?

And noooone mention today that Louisiana NEEDS a hurricane and could withstand one cause I was not a happy camper last night. Even the liquid livation couldn't take the edge off.
173. Floodman

I figured you'd like that!
177. displacedFloridian

I hope this isn't Stromtop's latest attempt to fool us! No offense displacedFloridian, long story.
Test yourself, displacedFloridian!
Good afternoon all

Invest 91L
ITCZ certainly cooperating now as opposed to the last 30 days of waves. Next wave could be interesting if the ITCZ holds.
Well, finaly back on-line! A bad storm rolled through here yesterday and lighting fried every thing.A direct hit. Burned up the puter, surge protector, phones, fax and printer. Did I leave anything out? Hows everybody?
After SW, hope ur doing good.
Wow. You know it's bad when it fries the surge protector. :)
172. JFV 8:27 PM GMT on June 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
What would this tropically intail Hurricane23?


If a trough sets up and stays put for a long while, which can happen, it would push the AB high further east and tend to cause re curvature before US Longitudes.
Pass the koolaid over here please...

...and some rain too while you're at it.
192. Greyelf

The filters exploded all over the office.It came in over the phone lines.
190. TEXASYANKEE43

Damn, Yankee (pardon the pun)...you need to check the ground for your electrical system; with a properly grounded electrical system the surge protector would have kept your stuff from toasting!
195. melwerle

Ahhh, a kindred spirit! One technicolor beverage, coming up!
Good evening all...getting some very welcomed rain here, thanks to 91L...
198. Floodman

There is an old antena for 2 way radio systems that share a common ground with the phone. Were gettin' it taken down. It's about 40' tall.
203. TEXASYANKEE43

That'd about do it...ouch!
201. stormdude77 5:07 PM AST on June 11, 2008
Good evening all...getting some very welcomed rain here, thanks to 91L...


Thats good to hear...none of the waves had that much influence up here in the Leewards.
204. Floodman

It did. Man that was loud and bright @ the same time. It blew the doors off the phone boxes outside the building.
Hey Storm, Hey Flood...

ok - off to make a dinner that my teenage daughter will stick her nose up at.

See y'all later.
208. JLPR
I noticed the convection is building north of where the center is supposed to be. Is the center of 91L trying to relocate itself under the convection a little more to the north?
W456...there's an ULL north of PR I think. That may may bring some of the moisture/showers northward into your area. JMO
Okay, off to home, folks...see you later!
bye,bye
209. stormdude77 5:24 PM AST on June 11, 2008
W456...there's an ULL north of PR I think. That may may bring some of the moisture/showers northward into your area. JMO


Upper trough...but looks to be fueling some showers over SD and Puerto Rico.
Edit: W456...I meant to say the Upper trough may pull some of 91's moisture northward, into the leeward islands
Hey stormdude77, Its raining up by u yet?
Ok, shift change on the blog! I have to entertain guests tonight so talk to you all tomorrow. Just maybe I'll check on 91L late tonight with graveyard shift!
hey sorry, just saw ur post
Hey, Julie...well, it's now raining now (but outside's very foggy and quite ''chilly''). Tonight looks pretty wet and damp
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)
GOES-12 Channel.
IR,WV and Low Cloud Product Link
GOES IR Loop of the Gulf of Mexico Link
Hi. Although I don't post much, I signed up last year because I saw a great deal of information on this site related to hurricanes. I pretty much come here everyday during the Hurricane season to see more in depth what's going on in the tropics.


I was online looking up historic Hurricane events and I came across this link http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/wind/facts.shtml It says that one recorded Hurrciane has crossed the equator line. I'm interested in knowing what hurricane was that but it doesn't give more information about it on this link.


Any help will be greatly appreciated.
194. TheCaneWhisperer 5:03 PM EDT on June 11, 2008
172. JFV 8:27 PM GMT on June 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
What would this tropically intail Hurricane23?

If a trough sets up and stays put for a long while, which can happen, it would push the AB high further east and tend to cause re curvature before US Longitudes

Indeed as the NWS in miami indicates this change should kick in sometime this weekend and yes sometimes these patterns have a tendency to stick around for 1-3 months at a time.
Thanks for the link Pat:
Looks like more moisture is making its way into the GOM. Nice blob over the YP also.
Hi folks

Just took a look at the shortwave IR loop of 91L.
There does not appear to be a low associated with this wave anymore.
Hi everyone, getting some rain here in Trinidad at last
224. ttweathergirl 10:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Hi everyone, getting some rain here in Trinidad at last


Would you happen to have the current barometric pressure there ??. TIA
Yes Texasyankee,this surge of tropical Moisture is the first true push from the lower deep tropics.
Signs the season is going in step so far with climatology.
No organizing is expected from it.
But it will increase POPS and general Rains chances later this week and the weekend along the Gulf Coast States.Depending on how deep these CONUS trofs dig.
The Big Loop WV with Dry Air Shaded shows them westerlies relaxing some too.Link

Thats the biggest change the last 72 cept for the lil invest darling..LOL
Sorry kman... I don't
It says that one recorded Hurrciane has crossed the equator line. I'm interested in knowing what hurricane was that but it doesn't give more information about it on this link.


Seriously. I only am finding Typhoon Vamei, which formed at only 1.5 N, but moved N from there. Anyone know what NOAA is calling a cross-equatorial hurricane?

NRL report on Vamei
wunderground Trinidad sites..Link
226. Patrap
No organizing is expected from it.
But it will increase POPS and general Rains chances later this week and the weekend along the Gulf Coast States.Depending on how deep these CONUS trofs dig.


We have been really dry here in SE Texas (until yesterday) and I said the other day I would be carful what I wished for,OOOPs.Gully washer...
Big storm popin around Sioux City.
Dosent have to be big and windy in June.

Just wet and linger as Texas and Louisiana so woefully experienced this week 7 years ago with TS Allison. Link
hey guys, stepped out for a while. Rain has stopped but as Stormdude77 said outside is damp and chilly. Hopefully the rain will start back :)
233. Patrap


What is strange about that is I live about 40 mi. East and it barely rained at all. I went to the local icehouse that day and the news was on TV. I asked where is that floodin' going on? They said Houston, haven't you heard? I'm like OMG! Looked like the I-10 and 59 canal.
Hey everyone...all the storm[insert suffix here]'s gone now?
236. so how many people do you think are bummed about this? LOL
234...The rains has stopped for now here too after falling hard for about 30 mins. I hope it continues tonight
237.

I would imagine no one is LOL
the only thing I saw weather wise today was a heck of a pounding rain and hail wise today. other than that saw what appeared to be an echo on the doppler earlier today over the everglades but it did not move much.
It's rather quiet in here tonight (considering we have an invest out there; although development is not likely)...
Is the GFS still showing some development of a low pressure in the Gulf from a front?
Hey, ttweathergirl...nice to see another Caribbean blogger on board!
244. watch
can any of you guys recommend any good blogs (besides this one) that would be discussing the current severe weather outbreak as well as flooding potential in the central US? Is there a risk that the lower mississippi will flood?
TEXASYANKEE I was LOVIN' that rain yesterday. My $220 water bill was lovin' it too. (typical bill is $60) I am ready for some more rain!!!!
244. watch 7:19 PM AST on June 11, 2008

This is usually the blog that follows severe weather...Link
stormdude.. been here since 2006 lurking and learning. Learnt a lot and finally decided to join in.
rain rain where r u, lol.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TRINIDAD IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VENEZUELA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

247. ttweathergirl 7:33 PM AST on June 11, 2008

welcome
Link

Unbelievable.
252. JLPR
well according to this vorticity map 91L is making landfall in South America

850

bye 91L =) your life was short but interesting =P
Thanks 456.... Nice to be able to chat with and learn from you all!
Growing Yucatan blob looks interesting ...
There's a strong vorticity associated with the wave behind 91L...
252. JLPR 7:58 PM AST on June 11, 2008
well according to this vorticity map 91L is making landfall in South America


the voticity center...remember a good portion of the wave axis extends to 15N.
91L looks done for... at least for now...
259. JLPR
yep 91L( the low) is done the wave continues =)
4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link

GOES IR Loop of the Gulf of Mexico Link
251
I can't believe this.
262. watch
# 246

Thanks for the link!
Pat -

Thanks for the links - always interesting.

251. -

The feds continue to prove that they are inept at just about anything... SAD!
Evening Folks....Guess we're back to blob watching for now?.............
Good evening all.

Interesting link Michfan. Sad.
Tropics aside; parts of the US are getting hammered again by tornados this evening......Looks pretty bad in Kansas and Nebraska right now so prayers out to those in harms way this evening...........
229. atmoaggie

Could be this one:

On November 19, 2004, an area of convection developed and persisted about 500 miles east-southeast of Colombo. Under an area of moderate vertical shear, it moved west-southwestward and slowly organized. It nearly dissipated on the 24th, but redeveloped on the 26th under an area of favorable upper level winds and good diffluence aloft. On November 27, it became Tropical Depression 5A, and after moving to the west-southwest, became Tropical Storm Agni on the 28th only 50 miles from the equator.[1] In its developmental stages, its circulation crossed the equator briefly into the southern hemisphere, while retaining its counter-clockwise spin.

Link
Good evening folks
I have not been blogging much lately due to my wrist and some personal issues, However i am here now so how is everyone! I see 91L is out there but the chance of development is below 20% and i wouldnt bet on development anyway due to hostile conditions ahead.
Drak. can you tell me why 91 is not going to develop and ease my mind, we are going to disney this weekend.
269.

I am NOT as knowlegable as Drak., but he may not be around at the moment -

I would say, after reading the earlier posts, that shear and south america will prevent 91 from developing at least for awhile.

It may be rainy in central Fl. this weekend, but high winds are extemely unlikely!!

Have a GRAET time!!
Boy Scout Ranch 6 miles North of Lil Sioux Iowa,Harrison County..30-40 injuries.4 Fatalities reported,Preliminary reports,...

Tornado,Large.
267. nrtiwlnvragn
Ah ha! Could be and probably is. If you google tropical cyclone cross equator, most of what you find is that it is impossible for a TC to do so. Maybe an update is in order.
thanks cone
This reminds me of something we have in the atlantic now. By the way, this storm below was in June with peak winds of 105 mph winds in 1933. There's definately a possibility we can have a storm like this before August [or mid-July even].
Dude, Patrap, that sounds real bad.
276. watch
#266
Looks like Omaha is getting POUNDED!

Link
Dang, this continuous drubbing eastern Neb is getting over and over needs to calm for the Tigers' bid at the CWS. If today were Sunday, they would have to postpone the game.
Greetings.
Some decent showers in Trinidad today, but none on MY garden, yet. Looks like the wave ( Invest ) has lost some of its potency this evening. But it is a large area of unsettled weather, heading into favourable conditions, apart from shear.
It will be interesting to see what becomes of this, in the Caribbean sea.
269. hosptacteam 12:42 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Drak. can you tell me why 91 is not going to develop and ease my mind, we are going to disney this weekend.


Invest 91L will very likely NOT develop due to hostile levels of wind shear ahead of it and land interaction (South America). However it may still hold somewhat of a circulation and once it reaches the Central or Western Caribbean shear may in fact decrease enough for some slow to gradual development to occur, However development at all is unlikely based on the current conditions.
thanks cane
280. hosptacteam 9:10 PM EDT on June 11, 2008

Anytime - have fun!!
Kman, you here?
,Trinidad weather now
temp 77 f
press 1013 rising
Light rain showers
wind calm
humidity 94 %
251 - incredible ......ineptness
Evening, everybody.

I'd like to announce that it seems the summer rainy season has (FINALLY!) arrived in the Nassau area of the Bahamas! We've had showers across the island every afternoon this week. The whole atmosphere feels better. Hopefully the humidity won't kill us now . . . LOL

Also want to welcome the ttwxgirl; nice to see some more island folk on the blog!

Finally,

274. weatherblog 9:00 PM EDT on June 11, 2008 Interesting storm. There were several that year (1933) that didn't take the most "obvious" routes through the region. I agree something similar could be possible before the ITCZ shifts much further north. I'd still expect to see the shear probabilities to decrease if we are going to see something similar.
This is horrible! Link
286.

WOW!! That's BAD!! Those poor kids.... Hard to believe.
Hi Baha. Enjoy the moist conditions. May your grass grow greener than ever !
Searing heat at Sarasota polo club/SWFL today. water table continues to be low. Rain we got on Monday was a drop in the bucket. But at least many of the pastures did go to seed. It would be a blessing if we got a few downpours this week. Horses feeling the heat and came flying over to the hose. It was nice cooling them down. In the winter they can be very naughty about getting hosed, but in the summer if I rig the hose & nozzle just right they stand under it like a shower. Most Thoroughbreds are sensitive to the heat, there are exceptions, but the quarterhorse is better suited for Florida --they just don't make good polo ponys. My boss stays in Fl all year, but most owners take the herd and leave the state. Gulf of Mexico is very warm and lake-like. No waves, but nice to go out and paddle and imagine how different the gulf is before,during and after a hurricane. I am sure there are many coastal dwellers who know the look of a swell pushing in from the horizon line. First you see it way out and then slowly it pulses stronger and stronger , sending better and better waves.....
happy to hear someone is getting rain
Hi Surfmom. Keep the wax handy, there will be waves........
The blog is suffering from sloth??
Hi everyone (if anyone is here, that is)...
well after 3 days of watering, my lawn has turned green again...... it was brown and very dry......

with the price of gas at $4/gal, I pray we don't get a big storm in the gulf this year!
Hey pottery, how much is gas down there?

thoughts and prayers to those in western Iowa......

oh yes! fully aware that it's not always what you wish for......sometimes the only good that can come from a 'cane are the rides it provides. Dean provided beautiful waves, but I thought about all those poor natives that were devastated by the storm
yes, the blog is very slow and so I am signing off too!
I see you got some rain 77. More tonight/tomorrow ?
Some heavy showers in POS, but none in Central today. Still waiting LOL
I just watered my grass also.

It hasn't rained in about 13-14 days so I guess it's going to poor in my neighborhood tomorrow. :)
Hi Thel. Do you really want to know our gas price?
Approx 1.25 per gal. heheheh I could send you a barrel ?
Still a lot of convection associated with 91L, that is still located east of the Islands. Looks a rainy night (I hope)

Well good evening folks

Just scanned the blog: looks slow tonight.

Hey Pottery, how are your calabash leaves LOL
1.25/ gallon?????

How in the hades is it so cheap? Is it subsidized in some way?

Wish I could drive down there and fill up! LOL
Man, is this taking forever to load or what ??
77, from that image, Tobago is getting wet, and that pool of heavy convection just south/east of me should be over us before dawn if it holds together.
Looking forward to that.
Good evening Kman...good to see you!
302. thelmores.

trinidad / venezuela = oil.
302. thelmores.

trinidad / venezuela = oil.

Link
That wave behind 91L looks to have a nice spin.
Ryang

Doesn't look like much rain coming your way from 91L tonight. If the diurnal max breathes life into it by then it will be passed you
I see NHC has not given up on 91L, still running models. SHIPS keeps shear low for 36-48 hours.
311. DDR
Hey pottery,i can see lightening and t-storms to my north and east,yes lets hope we get some heavy showers tonight.
I do not know what the problem is but when I try and post a comment it takes forever to load. Cannot blog like this so will check back later
Had trouble loading the blog here at work. Busy day - brush fire started by a thunderstorm, then chased us off with another thunderstorm. Florida DOF tractors are #1! Thanks
Kman, in response to an earlier post, enter "piarco" in the "find weather " box above. For T&T weather.
Kman...I'm hoping that that upper trough north of PR, pulls the associated convection with 91L more northward, then I could could some descent showers...
307. BahaHurican 9:14 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
Gas could be 50 cents/gallon if we allowed more drilling/refining here. We have so much of our own that others may end up trying to give theirs away just to get some business...
True, DDR. Flashes in the south as well. There is a large area of heavy stuff to the s/e.
I hear ya wu-folks..we've seen this before.
91L could just give us a surprise...so Im gonna think about moving on down the coast.
We may just have us a situation,..down the Line.
From Mobile Bay.
Im Jim Cantore..back to you in the Studio,Christina.

Thel, we currently supply 70% of your total imports of LPG. Not a well-known fact.
something is coming what remains to be seen area se of windward islands may be a little surprize se of invest 91l
321. DDR
Pottery
It now looks like our tiny island is getting sandwiched by two blobs LOL.
I Like watching the Tankers riding high on the River Here.
Spookie in the Spring High River,but seasonally comforting.
Still weird to be on River Road and Have a Tanker pass you up on the River while you wait for the light to change.60 or so Feet higher than at the Levee toe. Pic Link


LOL
True again DDR. The way my luck has been going, one will pass north, one south. I will be left dry.
Actually there is a nice shower now starting.
Keeper, you looking at 52w 8n ??
325. IKE
Impressive blob at 5N and 35W.
Anyways, this shower is smelling so nice, I'm going to bed to enjoy it.
Stay safe all.
327. Inyo
307. BahaHurican 9:14 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
Gas could be 50 cents/gallon if we allowed more drilling/refining here. We have so much of our own that others may end up trying to give theirs away just to get some business...


Assuming you are talking about the USA, 100% untrue. Our reserves don't even touch what other countries have. California and Texas were of course quite rich in oil but most is gone. There is some oil still offshore, improving technology allows some of it to be drilled from existing platforms with diagonal wells.

The republicans like to pretend that if we drilled in the Arctic Wildlife Preserve, it would drop oil prices. In reality, depending on who you ask, there is enough oil to supply 6 months to a few years of our current usage, but over many decades. It won't help ANYONE except whoever bribed Bush for the right to drill it, and would get rich off of it.

Then again, we could wait 20 years until global warming ruins the arctic ecosystem, then it won't matter if we drill it.
327. Inyo 9:53 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
We could be drilling offshore instead of Cuba...Also, there are fields in other states besides LA/MS...In fact, I believe we ought to build some refineries and drill in other places so that we aren't in even worse shape if we get a string of Gulf Coast Hurricanes...but, what do I know???
329. JLPR
umm...
That area at 52W 8N is spinning right?

Link
ajcamsmom, bajahurricane - are you a geologist? I am, licensed by the State of Kansas. You are dead wrong about 50c gas through drilling.
hey have any of you heard about the Tornado that just Hit a Camp in Western Iowa!!! It has killed 4 people and Hurt around 40!!!!!
Also, who says we have even hit the tip of the iceburg on the reserves this Country has??? I know they have a huge gas field or something up in Shreveport, LA that no one ever thought was there a few years ago...At least that is what one of my friends who is paying a fortune for leases up there has told me.
Well, I just came back up out of the basement about 20 minutes ago after spending about an hour and a half there. We definitely did get pounded here in the Omaha area.

Unfortunately, as some of you have seen, the Little Sioux Boy Scout camping area was not too far north of here and was part of all of the crap that ran through here. All local hospitals were put on notice to be ready for trauma as between 30-40 were estimated injured in addition to the 4 confirmed fatalities. Ages of the campers are 13-18. So sad.
316. ajcamsmom2 9:23 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
307. BahaHurican 9:14 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
Gas could be 50 cents/gallon if we allowed more drilling/refining here. We have so much of our own that others may end up trying to give theirs away just to get some business...


Are you referring to the U.S.? Well, you are in for a shock - the U.S. reached peak oil production all the way back in 1970, and the remaining fields are pretty much tapped out and what new reserves are found are mostly uneconomical to produce at current prices, or even at much higher prices, if ever (like that recent 400 billion barrel find... lucky if we can get 4 billion out of it due to its nature), even the more recent ones. Peak oil... an issue as controverial as climate change... perhaps even more so. I go here for regular breaking news updates (link at the top) on the situation.

Believe me, if there was cheap oil to tap, we would be gobbling it up right now as if there was no tomorrow. In addition, global production has not risin much for s few years now - while energy needs continue to rise, unlike during the 1970s when massive amounts of new production was brought online, resulting in a huge glut of oil, so peak oil may very well be here.
Hello everyone. I see 91L is looking ok but, about to run into S.A.
JLPR Ive been seeing it spin for a while now.
331. DocBen 10:01 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
OK, so it was an exageration...I just mean that if we produced more here and refined it the cost would go down...big time...We can't keep sending all our money out of the Country...We need to use our own resources while developing alternate fuel supplies...Heck with all the wind we have been having in S. LA...Well, it is a source...so is coal, solar power...you can make your own list
MichaelStL, Inyo - you are absolutely correct. Also, we do not need more refineries. Debottlenecking has increased capacity to a more thana sufficient level. That is why the oil companies have shut down several; including here in Kansas and in Philadelphia (not in hurricane country)

Even Bush has acknowledged that we are addicted to oil. You don't treat an addiction by jst getting anther fix - you deal with the addiction. Reduce consumption.

Consider also - if we DO pump ourselves dry that much faster what do we leave for our children? Or do you just not care?
There appears to be another wave behind 91L that looks good also.


335. MichaelSTL 10:02 PM CDT on June 11, 2008

Thanks for the links...
Thanks atmoaggie and nrtiwlnvragn for your help.

Although the cyclone Noaa discribes seems to be heading north The hurricane which did cross the Equator weakened to almost nothing before getting north of 10 degrees latitude where it regained its storm and hurricane status

Seems like they're saying that it was a Hurricane in the southern hemisphere and crossed over to the northern hemisphere.

Not sure if Noaa didn't state it correctly. They make it seem that a Hurricane crossed over the equator line as a Hurricane and then weakened.

Thanks for the help!

Back toweather - looks like we will dodge this one again here in Wichita - everything seems to be north of here.

Kansas - where Twister is not just a party game
339. DocBen 10:05 PM CDT on June 11, 2008
I agree we are addicted to Oil...I know I drive an SUV and I could not give it away with the price of gas...Crazy...Anyway, I will call one of my geologist friends tomorrow and get my facts straight...Lisa
Also, besides the horrible tornado in Little Sioux, we also got another huge amount of rain. Just what we don't need. The estimates were 4"+. :(
Night all...here is hoping we all wake up to a nice stretch of beautiful weather heading into Father's Day Weekend...:)
Its not that we are addicted to oil. The facts are Detroit gets kick backs from oil companies not to bring technolgy to the front of production to protect the need for oil. Those are the facts. Big money talks.
Sorry Folks.....Fell Asleep in the Office for the last hour and forgot to log out; Good Night, happy blob hunting, and I'll Check in Tomorrow............WW
Slow blog tonite, good nite everyone.
Weatherhunter -Yea I have been up storm chasing and havehheard it hit a boy scout camp killed at least 4 and many injured cnn is live with it now
DRAK - what's your take on the possibility of this thing 'splittng the difference' and going west of Cuba into the GOM?
352. DocBen 3:25 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
DRAK - what's your take on the possibility of this thing 'splittng the difference' and going west of Cuba into the GOM?


None of the forecast models take it into that region. The CLP5 is a climatological model. The BAMS model would be best with these type of weak systems. The flow will be more southerly in the Central Caribbean as the low to mid level ridge axis will only extend outward into the Bahamas.
355. JRRP
91L need more convection
i think isn`t impressive
356. JFV 3:41 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
drak, two brief questions concerning 91l. first, why are the latest ship model runs bringing 91l to ts status in about 48 hours or so, dont they see the adverse windshear values in front of it? also, why haven't the future track models for 91l been discontinued as of yet, taking into consideration that 91l is already dead, isn't?


If you look at the shear forecast from the ships you wil see that they keep shear favorable for the most part. I don't control who runs the models on 91L. The NHC runs them and can do so if they feel it is necessary.
I'm feeling pessimistic today..

91L is a blob. Steering currents have it going into South America thus any LLC will be quickly torn apart. Once South America has had it's way with it then it on to the caribbean where any amount of thunderstorms that try to develop will be ripped apart by shear. The End

If it was 10 degrees more north and today was July 20th then I might be worried.
Interesting, this is from the latest area forecast discussion issued by the NWS of PR...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACCOMPANYING A WAVE NEAR 58 WEST AND ANOTHER NEAR 48 WEST THIS EVENING. ALSO NOTED THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAD SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
If you look at wave not too far behing 91L, you'll see it is building convection and looks to have somewhat of a spin to it. So, when the time this wave gets in the spot where 91L is now and even into the caribbean the wind shear will be even more favorable than it currently is for 91L to develop....92L?
Tropical wave confirmed.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N30W 6N45W 7N49W 9N56W.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING
READY TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA. SURFACE WIND DATA ACROSS W AFRICA
SHOWS POSSIBLE WAVE IS E OF DAKAR SENEGAL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-33W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL WAVES...SEE ABOVE.
362.

To far south even though it looks good. That wave is associated with the ITCZ and will be a thunderstorm producer for the Amazon.
area of interest yuctan channel
Kansas is getting hammered tonight by tornadoes. Could be ugly morning there tomorrow. Manhattan, KS took a direct hit.
367. JRRP
the convection near 53w 8n has some rotation
Slllowww...g'night!
The GFS is hinting development in the CATL about a week or so from now. Will see what happens as the GFS does hold the system throughout the forecast period.
370. JRRP
369
i don`t see that
JRRP--- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_240l.gif
372. JRRP
thanks levi
Some nice looking stormtops lately in the midwest.
374. 7544
yucatan and or the wave at 52 west may be the next invest what ya think and a hot one coming off africa might get interesting soon
Didn't get any showers in this part of Trinidad. Just cloudy at times, and very still.
376. IKE
373. STORMTTOP 12:47 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Some nice looking stormtops lately in the midwest.


Those nice looking "stormtops" have killed people in tornadoes.

You need to be permanently banned.
I guess i could now get banned for name calling excuse me.
Not much there from 91L...we will see in a couple of days.....
It does appear the main circulation of 91L will go North of South America in my opinion..have a good day everyone. Off to work.
Before i go there is some serious blow up in the GOM.
The Blob in the GOM is under low Shear also it needs monitored very close although i could not find in pressures falling below normal in the area of the blob....
Gulf thats a drizzle not much more yet..
386. IKE
377. TampaSpin 5:13 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
373. STORMTTOP 1:47 AM EDT on June 12, 2008
Some nice looking stormtops lately in the midwest.

What a true idiot.......NICE you gotta be kidding.........what an irresponsible stupid comment to make after children are dead from those storms.


I can't believe he said that....does he/she have no heart?????

Admin needs to stop this talk on here by him/her....please!
Is a hurricane ugly? Was Kathrina ugly to look at? Must be allowed to admire structure and power, although it causes death and devastation.
388. eye
we had plenty of storms form the past couple seasons in 20+ kt of shear.
389. eye
Katrina was actually looking quite ragged at landfall, eyewall replacement cycle was occuring.
Any ground reports about our wave down near S Amer? Pressures rainfall ext.
I posted an update to the tropics in my comment section of my blog.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND IN AND
AROUND GALVESTON BAY AND ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SOME
TIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED
POPS FOR SHOWERS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH MID 90S INLAND AND AROUND
90 ALONG THE COAST. WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WORKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE SETTING UP LATE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SATURDAY AS >2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WORK THEIR WAY INLAND.
WILL CALL FOR HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH RAINS IN THE AREA.
SOME DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
RAIN FREE AS TEMPERATURES WARM. NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST IS STILL DEPENDENT
ON HOW FAR WEST UPPER RIDGING MOVES AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCES
CAN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM A DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THINK IT IS STILL BEST RIGHT NOW TO CARRY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS IF RAINS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND CALL FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND
AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST. IF ORGANIZED RAINS DO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE GULF DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LOUISIANA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS THAT TIME OF THE
YEAR. 42
&&

NOAA Says Little Prospect of Immediate Relief from Central States Flooding

With record flooding underway in many central United States locations and disaster declarations common in several states, NOAA Weather forecasters say the prospect of dry conditions is not in the immediate forecast.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service interactive flood map by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows 31 locations in major flooding. All those sites but three along the southern Illinois-Indiana state line are clustered in southern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, the Illinois-Iowa state line and eastern and central Iowa. Much of that area is at risk of severe weather into the weekend.

The map is available at http://www.weather.gov/ahps/index.php?stage=6.

There are 77 gauge locations at the moderate flooding level, expanded slightly from the major flood level area to include parts of South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri.

According to NOAA/National Weather Service reports revised this morning, Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle has declared a state of emergency for 30 counties. Nearly all major rivers in Wisconsin are at or near flood stage. Evacuations have been urged or conducted beneath the Wyocena and Pardeeville dams in Columbia County, about 30 miles north of Madison. Waukesha officials shut down several downtown bridges over the Fox River as water levels reached 35-year highs.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels requested farm disaster declarations from Secretary of Agriculture Edward Schafer for 44 counties in the state.

Des Moines, Iowa, officials began closing downtown bridges Tuesday in anticipation of water topping the spans. Waterloo officials closed the downtown area and five bridges serving the city, and asked downtown residents and business owners to evacuate. Part of a railroad bridge across the Cedar River at Waterloo was swept away and hit a downstream bridge forcing its closure. Three runaway barges on the Mississippi River rammed the Dubuque-East Dubuque, Ill., bridge causing it to be closed indefinitely.

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich declared six southeastern Illinois counties to be disaster areas: Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Jasper and Lawrence. A levee break, Tuesday, in Lawrence County, near the Indiana border, sent water from the Embarrass River pouring into homes and farms. About 200 homes were evacuated as water reached to the roofs of some buildings. A levee break along the Wabash River near Westport, Ill., caused evacuations from St. Francisville.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center both call for severe thunderstorms today for parts of the worst-hit areas and adjoining states. Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks are available at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook. Today's national map of rain and flooding risks is at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.pdf.

The public can keep up with changing conditions and local forecasts by selecting the desired location on the national weather map at http://weather.gov. Precipitation forecasts can be found at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Flash Flood Warning
Flood Warning
Flood Advisory
Flood Watch
Flash Flood Watch
Interesting weather discussion from the NWS in Houston/Galveston. Wind shear is decreasing but the convection needs persistence.
395. IKE
387. Circle 6:13 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Is a hurricane ugly? Was Kathrina ugly to look at? Must be allowed to admire structure and power, although it causes death and devastation.


True...but the way he/she phrased it showed no heart. I'll just add them to my ever-growing ignore list.
396. IKE
Added.
Sharks are beautiful, horrific power can be both stunning and lovely. There is no malice or evil intent in a cloud, even if it harbors lightning or adds rain that becomes floodwaters miles and miles away.
Not all of us watch the news on the ground. Feel free to enlighten folks with compassion and information you have learned but otherwise keep your flipped out flame wars to yourself.

Does WU have maps that show the ITCZ?
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
Product Description \ 7-Day Image Archive Link
P.S. I'm glad Dr. Masters is back from his trip.
Hope he has good photos.

Does WU publish cumulative daily rainfall maps? They are helpful for calculating waterlevels and slugs moving downstream.
The noaa SPC site has all that info. Link
401. MahFL
Oh....that blob in the GOM does look interesting......
USGS Real-Time Water Data for the Nation Link
Morning everyone

I've updated my blog...with a tropical update, of the atlantic...Link
GOES IR Loop of the Gulf of Mexico Link
GOES-12 3-Channel GOM views Link
NHC Home Page with the GTWO Link

0600 Surface Map Link

We need to watch the gulf.
Good morning everyone. The blob in the GOM looks like it might bear some watching. Lots of dry air to its west though so if it were to develop it looks like it would entrain some of that in hindering development. Have to see what QSCAT and ASCAT pick up today on it.
funny how the weather channel this morning just automatically assume that this blob in th GOM will not turn into anything...we need a weather channel 2 that gives us the real possibilities..put all the factors in place...guess they just forgot how dang hot it is in the GOM...
407. TheWeatherM

Good morning everyone! The Gulf looked beautiful watching Saving Abel in concert at the Swamp last night! Then I went home and saw the Blob! Hopefully it's just a rain maker that florida really needs right now. Those poor souls in Iowa I'm sure would be glad to share some of the rain they're getting. The Blob has bumped our rain chances to 60% through Saturday.
411. IKE
397. biff4ugo 7:10 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Sharks are beautiful, horrific power can be both stunning and lovely. There is no malice or evil intent in a cloud, even if it harbors lightning or adds rain that becomes floodwaters miles and miles away.
Not all of us watch the news on the ground. Feel free to enlighten folks with compassion and information you have learned but otherwise keep your flipped out flame wars to yourself.


The deadly tornadoes were talked about on here last night.
dang viking!! how were they?? love there music..would have went if it wasn't during the dang week...
409. Nolehead

I know what you mean. They didn't even mention the 91L Invest yesterday afternoon. I'm sure it will just be a rain maker but you never know with the waters as warm as they are.
412. Nolehead

They surprised me how good they were live outdoors at the Swamp. I hadn't bought their CD yet but will after seeing the concert. What a great place to watch concerts overlooking the GOM! Candlebox is there Aug. 13th, another Wed.
409. Nolehead 12:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
funny how the weather channel this morning just automatically assume that this blob in th GOM will not turn into anything...we need a weather channel 2 that gives us the real possibilities..put all the factors in place...guess they just forgot how dang hot it is in the GOM...


I work there and I know most of the people you see on tv are not meteorologist they are weather announcers who read a screen. Now Dr. Gray, Dr. Hurricane, and Jim are real Meteorologist.
Thank you ADMIN.

When you click on the "STORMTTOP" name, you see this:

"This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs."
417. IKE
The buoy 180 miles south of Southwest Pass,LA...

"Updated: 6:50 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Air Temperature: 76° F
Humidity: 95
Wind direction (W Dir): SSE (145 - 154 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 25.3 kts (29.1 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 31.1 kts (35.8 mph)

Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 6 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 2.30 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 2.3 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 6 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.99 in
Pressure Tendency (PT): +0.04 in
Decreasing or steady, then increasing; or increasing, then increasing more rapidly"
418. IKE
416. hcubed 7:56 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Thank you ADMIN.

When you click on the "STORMTTOP" name, you see this:

"This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs."


I'll 2nd that...AMEN!
416.

Well unfortunately there are multiple other storms unless there all banned...
the swamp is a great venue to watch a concert....there CD is very good i do recommend getting it...just might have to check out candlebox in Aug.
421. IKE
That slug of moisture in the GOM is headed NNW toward LA. and points eastward.
504, yeah i kinda figured that...but hey they can keep Steph Abrams, heather tesch and jen carfagno...and dump the rest...lol
Dude you should see them behind the scenes they are all into themselves they put on a ton of make-up,they talk about eachother behind there backs, and there are sex-scandals and stuff the most recent one was a month ago.thats how crazy it is there.lol
504 lol!! i really bet so now that they are in HD now...still it's nice to see that cutie Heather in the morning...talking being all into tehmselves i can only imagine how Mr.Doom and Gloom Cantory is..LOL
A post from STROMTOP still appears, but the ID handle link yields:
ERROR
This user does not appear to have a WunderBlog.

Not taking sides - I do find the posts amusing all claims of being a professional aside. How do we tell? The pros are frequently wrong too. The multiple IDs are offensive. StormTrop - how about getting one ID & cut out the counterproductive posting?
421. IKE

I'm hoping some of the rain bands break off and head up the NW Florida way. With a 60% chance through Sat. the weather gods must be expecting that to happen too.
Gulf ULL only down to about FL20 - no problem there. This blog just loaded
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Anybody watching how the wave south of CapeVerde's been doing? Or did it die?
Goodmorning everyone!

In regards to the rain in south florida, can someone tell me where storms are expected today? and which way they will be headed (the flow of the storms)?

thanks
New blog