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Invest 90L Off the Coast of Nicaragua Less Organized

By: Jeff Masters 2:05 PM GMT on November 18, 2016

An area of disturbed weather in the extreme southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua (Invest 90L) is struggling to develop, but is still expected to become a tropical depression by early next week as it meanders erratically. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that 90L had a modest amount of rotation, but heavy thunderstorm activity had decreased since Thursday and was sparse and disorganized. The disturbance had plenty of moisture to work with (about 70% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), and water vapor satellite imagery showed no large-scale areas of dry air that 90L might have to contend with. Wind shear was marginally favorable for development, near 20 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29.5°C (85°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 90L.

Track forecast: 90L a heavy rain threat to Central America
Steering currents are weak in the region, and 90L will not move much over the next five days. Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern from 90L, as even a weak tropical depression or tropical storm meandering in this area for multiple days could cause significant flooding and landslides.

Our three reliable models for prediction of tropical storm genesis—the European, GFS and UKMET models—continued to forecast in their 0Z Friday operational runs that 90L would develop into a tropical depression by early next week. About three-quarters of the 50 forecasts from the 0Z Friday European model ensemble predicted that 90L would eventually become Tropical Storm Otto. However, only 6% of these forecasts showed 90L becoming a hurricane. About 85% of the 20 GFS ensemble members from the 0Z Friday forecast produced a Tropical Storm Otto. In their 7 am EST Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 60%, respectively—a decrease of 10% from the odds given Thursday morning. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for Friday afternoon has been canceled, and is scheduled to fly on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

We’ll have a new post early this afternoon on some crazy happenings in the Arctic.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looking forward to the forthcoming Ant/Arctic article. It's pretty incredible...and a bit frightening to tell the truth.
Thanks Dr. Masters; looking forward to the PM post on the Poles; hope that you will mention the related jet stream issues:






thanks doc for the early morning update as for the arctic well its gone mad and going to get even madder anyway I will save it for the afternoon post

have a great morning
I wish the world had a cull list like this blog has an ignore list. The mouth-breathing deniers are emboldened by the election of a like-minded cockroach philosopher and feel it appropriate to come and fill these pages with guano.
New Satellite Provides Weather Forecasts For The Final Frontier

Excerpt:

"In the first six months of operation for GOES-R, it will return more data than all of the previous geostationary satellites of the U.S. combined. Think of it as a quantum leap for weather forecasting," says Gasparrini, who oversees the team that built GOES-R at Lockheed Martin, outside of Denver. They're now building three identical copies, predictably named GOES-S, T and U.




Quoting 6. SouthTampa:

I wish the world had a cull list like this blog has an ignore list.

From someone with a Trogdor avatar, no less. lol

It's tough...but fair, imo.
Quoting 8. Misanthroptimist:


From someone with a Trogdor avatar, no less. lol

It's tough...but fair, imo.
Burninating the countryside!
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
From the last blog, KOTG said:
its the smallest things that go first ...snip... the last time I saw a monarch butterfly in summer was july of 2011 I have seen none since but most don't notice the little things and assume they will last forever

My comment:

We have seen a few monarchs this year, not many. We started growing milkweed a few years ago, to encourage them. I didn't see many lightning bugs lately; we used to see thousands.
Dominican Republic is having a catastrophic complex Emergency due to the on going rain. 8 of 31 provinces are under a state of emergency. More than 20,000 people in the north coast have been displaced. Homes destroyed. Dire warnings not to cross streams and rivers. More than 130 rural towns are cut off due to flood waters. Inmates were evacuated from Santiago. Relief efforts are being hampered by rain, more of which is expecting this weekend.




nrt~ I've got a front row seat for that launch..

Another round of wet weather for the Virgin Islands and PR... AND look at us again, and again :( This activity is once again so close, and the hardest thing is it won't bring us rain :/

Imagine if 90L was to be named Obama instead of Otto. The comment section of this blog would need to be re-enforced with Kevlar and Zylon.

Peace.
Quoting 10. ChiThom:

Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
From the last blog, KOTG said:
its the smallest things that go first ...snip... the last time I saw a monarch butterfly in summer was july of 2011 I have seen none since but most don't notice the little things and assume they will last forever

My comment:

We have seen a few monarchs this year, not many. We started growing milkweed a few years ago, to encourage them. I didn't see many lightning bugs lately; we used to see thousands.
I notice a lot of small things that most don't even look at its who I am I am the person that can walk in your house and tell your whole life story just by looking around seeing the way the room is laid out without touching a thing I think the job made me that way
Quoting 14. LoveReignoerMe:

Imagine if 90L was to be named Obama instead of Otto. The comment section of this blog would need to be re-enforced with Kevlar and Zylon.

Peace.
stop it now you


lol
Quoting 11. Skyepony:

Dominican Republic is having a catastrophic complex Emergency due to the on going rain. 8 of 31 provinces are under a state of emergency. More than 20,000 people in the north coast have been displaced. Homes destroyed. Dire warnings not to cross streams and rivers. More than 130 rural towns are cut off due to flood waters. Inmates were evacuated from Santiago. Relief efforts are being hampered by rain, more of which is expecting this weekend.




nrt~ I've got a front row seat for that launch..




Meanwhile no rain here.
Quoting 7. nrtiwlnvragn:

New Satellite Provides Weather Forecasts For The Final Frontier

Excerpt:

"In the first six months of operation for GOES-R, it will return more data than all of the previous geostationary satellites of the U.S. combined. Think of it as a quantum leap for weather forecasting," says Gasparrini, who oversees the team that built GOES-R at Lockheed Martin, outside of Denver. They're now building three identical copies, predictably named GOES-S, T and U.







this is the crown jewel with it a vast amount of data will beam down and enlighten us all

I hope for safe passage for all mankind

thank you

NASA/NOAA
Quoting 12. ItsTheSunStupid:

How do you explain this....
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/11/noaa-septem ber-temperature-fraud/



I'll waste my time here, but only because you and Tony Heller can't be bothered to read the methodology. Algorithms are used for data filling in poor coverage areas. Link Link Reading the Introduction and links explaining the data would probably be a good place to start, and in that regard, stay off the conspiracy blogs.

Essentially, as long as the data is filled using the same methodology, the results don't change as we are calculating a global anomaly. The methodology for filling is peer reviewed and scientifically sound. This is really just a failing of math on your and Tony's part and an insistence of refusing to read the dang papers linked to on the website the data comes from that explain exactly what is going on...
Quoting 1. Misanthroptimist:

Looking forward to the forthcoming Ant/Arctic article. It's pretty incredible...and a bit frightening to tell the truth.


I'm also eager to hear what they'll have to say. Perhaps I'll hear, if someone has found a better explanation than the one, that I discussed in previous blog.
22. bwi
Thorough article this morning in the Washington Post, featuring comments from Jennifer Francis and other experts (and WU blog alumni), on the extreme high temps in the Arctic and displacement of polar air over Siberia.

"Political people in the United States are watching the chaos in Washington in the moment. But some people in the science community are watching the chaos somewhere else — the Arctic. It’s polar night there now — the sun isn’t rising in much of the Arctic. That’s when the Arctic is supposed to get super-cold, when the sea ice that covers the vast Arctic Ocean is supposed to grow and thicken.

But in fall of 2016 — which has been a zany year for the region, with multiple records set for low levels of monthly sea ice — something is totally off. The Arctic is super-hot, even as a vast area of cold polar air has been displaced over Siberia.

...

“Both the persistence and magnitude of these temperature anomalies are quite unusual,” Labe added by email. “Large variability in temperatures is common in the Arctic (especially during the cold season), but the duration of this warm Arctic — cold Siberia pattern is unusual and quite an impressive crysophere/sea ice feedback.” (The “cryosphere” refers to that part of the Earth’s system that is made up of ice.)"




I hope that South Florida reaches the 40's this week and that this forecast is wrong that is currently showing on Wunderground for Boca Raton, FL.
Quoting 12. ItsTheSunStupid:

How do you explain this....snip

The site is the fraud. It's not real, despite the name. Try realscience.org or skepticalscience.com for real news.
Quoting 19. Naga5000:



I'll waste my time here, but only because you and Tony Heller can't be bothered to read the methodology. Algorithms are used for data filling in poor coverage areas. Link Link Reading the Introduction and links explaining the data would probably be a good place to start, and in that regard, stay off the conspiracy blogs.

Essentially, as long as the data is filled using the same methodology, the results don't change as we are calculating a global anomaly. The methodology for filling is peer reviewed and scientifically sound. This is really just a failing of math on your and Tony's part and an insistence of refusing to read the dang papers linked to on the website the data comes from that explain exactly what is going on...
Reading? Pssh? Trying to understand? Pssh. Science is such a hoax. Just about everything we've created using understanding derived from the scientific method is a liberal conspiracy foisted upon us by the liberal elite (insert despised race here]. But dem chem trails, man... /s
Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I notice a lot of small things that most don't even look at its who I am I am the person that can walk in your house and tell your whole life story just by looking around seeing the way the room is laid out without touching a thing I think the job made me that way

That's quite a talent, Columbo! And now that you mention it, I think our crickets are disappearing, too.
For the sake of the informed comments and spirit of the Blog (and respect for Dr. Masters and this particular institution), I am making the personal commitment to keep my comments on topic for the next 365 days with the full understanding that many "one post" bloggers and trolls, on websites all over the internet, feel a bit emboldened by recent political events in the United States and and will blindly tow the party/politician line wherever then can just to ruffle feathers.

However, this is a weather/climate blog that is based on majority consensus science; don't let the non-believers and trolls, or those who will blindly believe anything anyone professes without actually thinking on your own or doing some fact checking, work you up..........................Either ignore them or post a link to scientific information to refute any particular comment that simply ignores science or logic.

And finally hoping that this Country will do a better job of educating all of our children in the future whether they be poor or rich or whether they live in cities or in the country. Don't know who came up with this quote but it was the motto of one of the Teacher's Unions in South Florida in the 1970's:

"If You Think Education is Expensive, Try Ignorance"..................................
Quoting 10. ChiThom:

Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
From the last blog, KOTG said:
its the smallest things that go first ...snip... the last time I saw a monarch butterfly in summer was july of 2011 I have seen none since but most don't notice the little things and assume they will last forever

My comment:

We have seen a few monarchs this year, not many. We started growing milkweed a few years ago, to encourage them. I didn't see many lightning bugs lately; we used to see thousands.


I still see monarchs in late summer and early autumn in the DC area but not many. And they no longer breed, at least on my milkweeds. Last egg laying I saw was in Sept 2011.

They used to (1960s and 70s) be common all summer and early autumn before they migrated.


It seem to be the right time to buy land in New zealand.
Link
Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

For the sake of the informed comments and spirit of the Blog (and respect for Dr. Masters and this particular institution), I am making the personal commitment to keep my comments on topic for the next 365 days with the full understanding that many "one post" bloggers and trolls, on websites all over the internet, feel a bit emboldened by recent political events in the United States and and will blindly tow the party/politician line wherever then can just to ruffle feathers.

However, this is a weather/climate blog that is based on majority consensus science; don't let the non-believers and trolls, or those who will blindly believe anything anyone professes without actually thinking on your own or doing some fact checking, work you up..........................Either ignore them or post a link to scientific information to refute any particular comment that simply ignores science or logic.

And finally hoping that this Country will do a better job of educating all of our children in the future whether they be poor or rich or whether they live in cities or in the country. Don't know who came up with this quote but it was the motto of one of the Teacher's Unions in South Florida in the 1970's:

"If You Think Education is Expensive, Try Ignorance"..................................



i wish you the best......now i believe i have passed this year ban free....one month to go and you never know what might happen....
Quoting 12. ItsTheSunStupid:

How do you explain this....
Explain Heller? Not sure. A substance abuse problem? A hard blow to the head? A genetic deficiency? Long term exposure to undetected environmental toxins? An infestation by tropical brain parasites?

Quoting 31. ricderr:




i wish you the best......now i believe i have passed this year ban free....one month to go and you never know what might happen....
Hold me to my promise to remain ban-free between now and November 18, 2017....................................... :)
Da derp is exceptionally deep derp this morn.

Try the hip waders.

They all da rage.

Ooh rah'



Quoting 12. ItsTheSunStupid:

How do you explain this....


Quoting 32. Neapolitan:

Explain Heller? Not sure. A substance abuse problem? A hard blow to the head? A genetic deficiency? Long term exposure to undetected environmental toxins? An infestation by tropical brain parasites?


Tony Heller:

"My blog is a shit stain on the Internet."



I’m climate change denier Tony Heller. You might know me better by my pen name, “Steven Goddard,” or Twitter handle, @SteveSGoddard. This is my story.

First, you should know that I’m pretty much a nobody in the climate debate. I’m laughed at by all climatologists. I’m not even taken seriously by true climate skeptics. I don’t have a degree in climatology. I haven’t written a single academic paper about climate change and I don’t have a job related to climatology or the weather. What I do have is a blog and a Twitter account. But as it turns out, that’s pretty much all you need to be a somebody in the climate debate.

Like a shit stain, my blog is ugly, embarrassing and, as much as you hate to, it’s something you have to deal with. One fellow climate denier described my blog as “the crack house of skepticism.” But enough uneducated morons and right-wing ideologues link to my blog to grant me substantial ranking on Google search results. As a result, any layperson on the Internet who has researched global warming with Google to a fair degree has likely read the bullshit posted on my website where I claim to be able to drive 250,000 visitors to my site every week and have received over 20 million page views as of November 2014. I have also attracted over 4000 11,000 14,000 Twitter followers with more than 18,000 50,000 84,000 tweets. And so although a complete nobody in the climate debate, I have a fair amount of influence over thousands, perhaps millions, of impressionable individuals who don’t have a basic grasp of the facts on global warming.

More >>

#36...


Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



this is the crown jewel with it a vast amount of data will beam down and enlighten us all

I hope for safe passage for all mankind

thank you

NASA/NOAA


My wife and I are planning on driving down to see the launch.
Bizarre Temperatures: North Pole Rises Above Freezing While Parts of Russia Plunge Below -40 Degrees

Jon Erdman



Temperatures near the North Pole have nudged above freezing recently, while parts of Asia have shivered in temperatures colder than -40 degrees in one of the most bizarre juxtapositions seen.

(MORE: Early November Snow Cover in the Lower 48 States Lowest in 13 Years)

Air temperatures sampled by at least five different buoys near the North Pole between 86 and 89 degrees north latitude reached from 0 to 1.2 degrees Celsius (32 to 34.16 degrees Fahrenheit) on Nov. 15, according to the data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme.

Air temperature (in red) measured by buoy 300234064010010 just south of the North Pole at 88.29 degrees north latitude from late September through mid-November 2016. The above-freezing temperatures measured around November 15 are highlighted by the orange arrow. The inset graphic in the upper right shows the location of this buoy.
"Warm air has flooded the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic in response to a large North Pacific Low and anomalous Eurasian ridge," said Zack Labe, a PhD student and climate researcher at the University of California, Irvine.

To show how bizarre this is, Labe tweeted a graph showing that mean temperatures over the Arctic since mid-October had not fallen, as you would expect, but had actually risen into mid-November.

Labe said warm sea-surface temperatures have lead to a longer ice-free period than normal across parts of the Beaufort, Kara and Barents Seas.

Arctic sea ice coverage is at 37-year record low for mid-November, almost 2 million square kilometers less than the 1981-2010 daily mean, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

In essence, an area of the Arctic greater than the size of Alaska is lacking ice cover.


Open water absorbs more of the sun's incoming energy, while ice or snow reflects a large quantity of the sun's rays.

A major concern in the climate change community, Arctic amplification occurs when diminishing ice cover leads to an increased absorption of solar radiation by open water, which in turn warms the air above it, leading to more melting of ice.

"While there is large variability in the Arctic, the current low sea ice is likely a combination of continued Arctic amplification (climate warming) and natural variability from this anomalous pattern," said Labe, who maintains a site with various animations and graphs tracking Arctic sea ice.

Just before New Year's Eve 2015, another bizarre North Pole thaw occurred, helped by a powerful Icelandic storm that triggered a deadly avalanche in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.

(MORE: 35 Strangest Weather Events I've Seen in My Lifetime)

Siberia Shivers

Meanwhile, well over 1,000 miles south of the North Pole, parts of Asia are frigid, even by their standards.

More than a dozen Russian cities plunged to -40 degrees Celsius or colder on Nov. 15. While these bitter cold temperatures aren't as unusual in eastern Siberia's "Pole of Cold" region, even in November, they're more impressive in central Russia and Kazakhstan.

More,....
Quoting 7. nrtiwlnvragn:

New Satellite Provides Weather Forecasts For The Final Frontier

Excerpt:

"In the first six months of operation for GOES-R, it will return more data than all of the previous geostationary satellites of the U.S. combined. Think of it as a quantum leap for weather forecasting," says Gasparrini, who oversees the team that built GOES-R at Lockheed Martin, outside of Denver. They're now building three identical copies, predictably named GOES-S, T and U.







Morning all... sure hope I can make it to the exciting launch tomorrow... assuming no cancellations. :)
Dr. Jeanne Francis' research on jet stream issues and Arctic amplification/warming is a relatively new theory (within the last 10 years I believe) and it has had some critics, like any peer-review issue should, but her and her research team have come up with a very good theory which may well verify over the next decade or so.......If it does, they should be nominated for a Nobel in the future.
The terra forming of 3rd rock out is very much on schedule.

Would you have information on launch time? Thanks

Quoting 11. Skyepony:

Dominican Republic is having a catastrophic complex Emergency due to the on going rain. 8 of 31 provinces are under a state of emergency. More than 20,000 people in the north coast have been displaced. Homes destroyed. Dire warnings not to cross streams and rivers. More than 130 rural towns are cut off due to flood waters. Inmates were evacuated from Santiago. Relief efforts are being hampered by rain, more of which is expecting this weekend.




nrt~ I've got a front row seat for that launch..


Quoting 31. ricderr:




i wish you the best......now i believe i have passed this year ban free....one month to go and you never know what might happen....
where have you been I was wundering and what about that post of the day thing that was fun




Quoting 43. swflurker:

Would you have information on launch time? Thanks


1day 5 hrs 55 mins to launch

link to goes r site

Link
With reference to the article posted by Pat below, and the comment with regard to a North Pacific low, here is the low juxtaposed against the break/interruption that they cause in the jet stream. Lows are typical, and their interaction with the jet are typical as well (with a prime example being a cut-off low) but one of the big problems is that lows typically move along to the East along with the jet, in the Northern Hemisphere, within a few days which is also typical; the weather will deteriorate as the low passes across, including temp variations, the then the weather moderates again as high pressure builds back in (whether cold high pressure in the Winter or warm high pressure in the Summer). 

What we have seen in recent years are patterns where the jet gets "stuck" for a longer period of time causing long heat or cold spells over a particular area. We have also seen events along the US Gulf Coast, or US-Mexican border area, on several occasions in recent years with a stuck low bringing in massive flooding in one region or other events in the Northern latitudes where one region is freezing (let's say Siberia) and another region (lets say North America) is warm for a prolonged period until the jet moderates again. Interesting stuff.





Is it just my impression, or have the crazies suddenly started infesting this blog.

Quoting 48. Patrap:

nasa.gov

Nov. 10, 2016

MEDIA ADVISORY M18-16

NASA Sets GOES-R/Atlas V Launch Events Coverage
GOES-R first stage in Vertical Integration Facility




Things that are completely awesome and I wouldn't want to stand under(and yet this is tiny compared to what SLS will be like!)
Also excited to see what this bad boy can do once it's up there. 
Quoting 49. VAstorms:

Is it just my impression, or have the crazies suddenly started infesting this blog.
they not crazy they scared maybe but its ok we can show them the way
Tomorrow myself and visiting wu members will be watching and photographing the move of this historic restoration.

Restored PT boat heads back to the water, Saturday (Nov. 19)


File image, 2014



By Doug MacCash, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Follow on Twitter
on November 18, 2016 at 10:09 AM, updated November 18, 2016 a


It should be quite a sight. On Saturday (Nov 19), The National World War II Museum's PT-305 will head back to the water after almost a decade-long, loving restoration that's cost more than $6 million.

The 40-ton antique patrol/torpedo boat will bid farewell to it's current home on Magazine Street and cruise aboard a flexible mega truck bed known as a "crawler" to the Erato Street wharf starting at roughly 7:15 a.m.

Like many 73-year-olds, the big wooden boat won't be moving especially swiftly. PT boat project manager Candy Westfall said that the crawler will move at "walking speed." She estimates the trip will take two hours or more.

The 78-ft.-long boat will doubtlessly snarl traffic, so drivers be advised.


World War II Museum's PT 305, preparing for action, again

At the Erato Street Warf on the Mississippi riverfront, PT-305 has a long-anticipated date with a tug called Miss Becky. Once the old veteran is craned onto a barge, Miss Becky will push it from the river through the Rigolets to a temporary home at the Seabrook Marina on the Industrial Canal near Lake Pontchartrain.

Are the paint-spattered, sawdust-covered volunteers, who have lavished roughly 120,000 hours of labor on the project, sad to see the big boat go? Yes and no, said Westfall.

"Just because the boat's leaving doesn't mean the volunteers are leaving," Westfall said. "I think they're sad to say goodbye to this portion of the project, but this is the signal that they're getting closer to having their baby in the water. We're very excited for the next phase."

PT 305 was built at the Higgins plant near City Park and destroyed three enemy vessels in World War II.

The 35-40 core volunteers will put the final touches on the restoration over the next weeks. Hopefully PT-305's old V-12 engines will roar again by mid-December and it will chop through Louisiana waters as it did when first taken out for a test spin in 1943.

Doug MacCash, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune

10.5n.82w...coc?
Although 90L is struggling, it will be interesting to see what happens next week. If it strengthens and the center is still over water, we might have the 15th tropical storm of the season - Otto.

Several named storms in the ATL basin (forming in 2016) have taken a long time to develop.

90L seems to be taking its time!

Quoting 56. Stormwatch247:

Although 90L is struggling, it will be interesting to see what happens next week. If it strengthens and the center is still over water, we might have the 15th tropical storm of the season - Otto.

Several named storms in the ATL basin (forming in 2016) have taken a long time to develop.

90L seems to be taking its time!


NHC is losing confidence its lowering its chances it was 30 percent in 48 hrs but now 0 and 80 percent in five days now 60 so it is not looking good at the moment
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Upper-level
winds are currently only marginaly conducive, and during the next
couple of days any development should be slow to occur. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Beven


the end of the current mild spell for the east is on the way
beautiful today high so far 64 tomorrow by this time it will be 34
the change up is coming
From EurekAlert!:

Worrying traces of resistant bacteria in air

Polluted city air has now been identified as a possible means of transmission for resistant bacteria. Researchers in Gothenburg have shown that air samples from Beijing contain DNA from genes that make bacteria resistant to the most powerful antibiotics we have.

"This may be a more important means of transmission than previously thought," says Joakim Larsson, a professor at Sahlgrenska Academy and director of the Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research at the University of Gothenburg.

Joakim Larsson and his colleagues have previously received attention for their research on waterborne release of antibiotics from pharmaceutical production in India, which was shown to trigger the development of resistant bacteria.

More >>
lunch is almost done 20 mins
I posted this back on November 8th.

The GFS completely nailed the Northern Plains Winter Storm 10 days ago.

GFS from November 8th (240 hour)
Quoting 62. Sfloridacat5:

I posted this back on November 8th.

The GFS completely nailed the Northern Plains Winter Storm 10 days ago.

GFS from November 8th (240 hour)


Northern Plains storm caster ;-)
Quoting 49. VAstorms:

Is it just my impression, or have the crazies suddenly started infesting this blog.


No, we are here all the time. Just when there is more 'weather' occurring, our insanity isn't noticed
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NHC is losing confidence its lowering its chances it was 30 percent in 48 hrs but now 0 and 80 percent in five days now 60 so it is not looking good at the moment


It's strange. Had the invest been in September, the blog would have been exploding with some people predicting the possibility of a super-mega-ultracane slamming into Minneapolis or wherever, irrespective of what the NHC was forecasting . As it is in November we are spending more effort discussing Arctic ice coverage, though a 60% probability of forming a TS now is just as likely as the same if we had the same 60% probability in September.
Quoting 12. ItsTheSunStupid:

How do you explain this....
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/11/noaa-septem ber-temperature-fraud/



I will start with this: "This is a remarkable feat, given that they don’t have any actual thermometers in those regions. In fact, NOAA doesn’t have any thermometers on about half of the land surface."
Who told you that NOAA is the singular source for thermometers or that the only temperature data comes from NOAA thermometers? Did you now that you can acquire your own thermometers?

Thermometers

Did you know that you can acquire your own PWS?

Personal Weather Stations

Did you know that you do not acquire these through NOAA?

I did not need to read the article beyond that point. The opening paragraphs were enough to inform me that the article was written for the intellectually challenged and the morally bankrupt members of the world's human society.
Quoting 21. elioe:



I'm also eager to hear what they'll have to say. Perhaps I'll hear, if someone has found a better explanation than the one, that I discussed in previous blog.


I thought that we had agreed that you were discussing a feedback and not an initiator of the current global warming trend. How do you plan to expand beyond that?
Please forgive me if this is not the appropriate place for this post. I have a question regarding the 26 Celsius threshold for tropical cyclone development.
In particular is this a universal constant, or would it change with the climate, perhaps being lower during the last glacial maximum, or higher in a future high emissions scenario? Would a warming or cooling of the troposphere or tropopause change the 26° rule?