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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Invest 90L in the Tropical Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:35 PM GMT on July 29, 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters while he's on vacation.

NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent storms in 90L, peak rain rates were around 1-2 inches/hours. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses 90L is under 10-15 knots of shear with positive divergence aloft. The former isn't quite favorable for further development as it will ventilate the system, but the latter is favorable because it will aid in removing outflow from the storms. There's also a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest of 90L's current position. Looking at the 500 mb height patterns, the steering currents for 90L are to the WNW, which will move it into the area of weaker shear and get it further away from the equator. This is important because if 90L stays south, it will have trouble developing a circulation. It will have a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone once it goes north of 10N. The Saharan Air Layer is lurking just to the north of 90L. A WNW track would keep 90L out of the SAL, which is good for development.


Fig. 1 IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 540 PM EDT.


Fig. 2 Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of CIMMS.

Model Forecasts and Climatology
The 12Z Canadian model moves 90L to the WNW and develops tropical-storm force winds at the surface. The 12Z and 18Z GFS runs are less aggressive in intensifying 90L and adjusts the track so that 90L is moving to the WNW. Based on the run-to-run consistency, previous model verification (i.e. the Canadian model's tendency to overdo intensification), general synoptic pattern, I favor the GFS solution for now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

Update
Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WAHOOOO Thanks Doc!
Hi all....looks like things are starting to pick up I see. :)
'Send in the clowns...'
Yeah Tex....and in the Caribbean too.
Quoting NoNamePub:
Yeah Tex....and in the Caribbean too.


oh really....didn't notice that. Just noticed the 2 circles in the Atlantic.
Fresh shiny new blog entry and a blob to watch!
Dog gonnit! We were well on our way to 10,000 posts.
said that about ike

look what happen
7306. stormpetrol 11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L=MONSTER

Hate to say so KOTG , but you could be spot on, I would say anywhere from the gulf coast to to N Carolina needs to watch it.
90l is the storm of the cenetry
whew....
Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.


Tropics Blog Yahoooo. Thank you Rob.
Nice blog update.
Sheri
thank you very much doc carver i will try not to banned myself this time
"We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US. "

I think it is too early to say that. Thanks for the update.
Quote: Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Great. The GW fanatics will get a big hit off of that.
Thanks for the update Dr. Carver! Finally no more GW talk.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really?


Diurnal cycles affect everything in the tropics, with no bias towards certain types of systems. Certain tropical systems will sometimes swing back and forth more drastically with the diurnal cycles when they are sitting on the edge of a cliff and are close to not being able to sustain themselves. 92L this year was the most classic example of that you will ever find.
Quoting Bonz:
Fresh shiny new blog entry and a blob to watch!


Make that 2 blobs. :)
Quoting Snowlover123:
Quote: Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Great. The GW fanatics will get a big hit off of that.


Exactly what I was thinking.
I love this blog :) Thanks Dr. Carver.
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Exactly what I was thinking.


Great minds think alike! :)
Quoting AllStar17:
"We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US. "

I think it is too early to say that. Thanks for the update.


Agreed. But, we need to keep two eyes on this storm. Local mets are saying that and models are picking up on it.
HA! WHAT NOW GW PEOPLE!!!! lol jk
Evenin' all.

Thanks Doc M.

Here's hoping it stays WAY south.
GFDL
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL


GFDL also develops this. The ECMWF is the only major model that keeps it weak now. Drak, does this look too far north? I think it's a tad too far north.
Quoting Snowlover123:


GFDL also develops this. The ECMWF is the only major model that keeps it weak now. Drak, does this look too far north? I think it's a tad too far north.


GFDL and HWRF have a poleward bias.
Quoting Snowlover123:
Quote: Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Great. The GW fanatics will get a big hit off of that.

Ladies and Gentlemen, start your... ignore buttons!
We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US. "

Personally I wouldn't take that to the bank, Let the chips fall where they may!
Quoting jeffs713:

Ladies and Gentlemen, start your... ignore buttons!


???
Does Hart's research only look at storms that were already TCs at this point? Im quite confident that if we look at where some of those that made landfall began as disturbances or waves, that we would find that there were indeed more like 90L who did indeed make landfall
Quoting caneswatch:


Agreed. But, we need to keep two eyes on this storm. Local mets are saying that and models are picking up on it.


All models develop it, only one model keeps it weak...er.
nhc is late
gfdl way too poleward...more than the hwrf
Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

None of those storms developed from the ITCZ I bet. Great update though!
Quoting Drakoen:


GFDL and HWRF have a poleward bias.


In your opinion Drak, which model is better? The GFDL or the HWRF?
What about Allen?

formed on July 31st at 30W and hit the US in 1980
Quoting Snowlover123:


???

Not directed at you. Directed at all the GW posters.

(I was trying to clarify, and IE got cranky)
I think for Dr. carver to say that based on climatology that this most likely wouldn't be a major threat to the Caribbean or U.S. is absolutely ridiculous. Unless we get a monster trough there is no way this thing doesn't spend its journey going wnw-nw possibly going west in the long run
Quoting jeffs713:

Not directed at you. Directed at all the GW posters.

(I was trying to clarify, and IE got cranky)


Ohhhh okay. Gotcha. ;)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
What about Allen?

formed on July 31st at 30W and hit the US in 1980

And was further north.
Quoting Twinkster:
I think for Dr. carver to say that based on climatology that this most likely wouldn't be a major threat to the Caribbean or U.S. is absolutely ridiculous. Unless we get a monster trough there is no way this thing doesn't spend its journey going wnw-nw possibly going west in the long run


Agreed.
Quoting SouthALWX:
Does Hart's research only look at storms that were already TCs at this point? Im quite confident that if we look at where some of those that made landfall began as disturbances or waves, that we would find that there were indeed more like 90L who did indeed make landfall

Oh does Ivan come to mind when you think that????

Taco :o)
Click to enlarge and extend the run






Quoting Snowlover123:
Quote: Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Great. The GW fanatics will get a big hit off of that.


I wonder if the Doc will do a story on the extreme cold in South America?

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
nhc is late


I wonder if they're pending between code yellow and code orange for 90L.
I agree with the 18z GFDL on the timing of the intensification of 90L. Intensity is still a bit overdone IMO, but could happen nevertheless. I also would agree with a tad more "left" track, however the GFDL has a poleward bias.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 292351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 292351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting Snowlover123:
Quote: Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

Great. The GW fanatics will get a big hit off of that.


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.
Quoting jeffs713:

And was further north.


yup it was
20% still on 90L, good call.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
Quoting WeatherFromtheSouth:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 292351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NOOOOOOO!!!
Quoting Levi32:


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.


SRACASM FLAG: ON
Quoting Levi32:


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.
but levi they can not call cold weather global warming kinda like having a global warming conference in jan during a blizzard it just don't fly
Quoting Levi32:


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.


Hi Levi, what do think of these two new circles? Should they work there way to the Carribean or more northward?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. The TWO Hat Trick!


LOL. I had it copied and pasted because I had not seen it yet. However, my instinct told me to refresh the page one more time. My instinct was correct. Three in a row!
Quoting Snowlover123:


In your opinion Drak, which model is better? The GFDL or the HWRF?


Hard choice I'd go with the HWRF but it depends on the situation itself.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Kind of happy I will be off the blog beginning tomorrow until Sunday evening, during the formative stages of 90L.


I might just avoid the blog for the same reason. Will probably be checking other non-troll/spam/freakish blogs on here for info.
Cool deal! A new blob to look at finally. woo hoo!
Out for the night , not that anyone cares, I still think too many including the NHC hang their hats too much on "models" case closed , watch , wait and see what unfolds!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


All models develop it, only one model keeps it weak...er.


My thoughts on 90L now:

Quoting KimberlyB:
Evenin' all.

Thanks Doc M.

Here's hoping it stays WAY south.


Sorry! I meant Dr. Carver. My bad.
Quoting Levi32:


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.


Someone posted an article earlier stating over 2,000. So yeah.
Guess I am watching the mess north of Bahamas alone, I have a sneaky suspicion something is going on in that mess; would not be surprised if something comes out of this, anyone else see it and have any educated opinions.
Woooohoooooo a new blog.. finally.....

*****************************
Update
Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.

*****************************

Uhhhh oooohhhhhhhh.... Can we just keep commenting on the blog?? lol
Repost from last blog:

Quoting jeffs713:

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So just a little but more than 80 knots. Thanks for the info!


Quoting Levi32:


About 82 knots.



Where are you guys getting that? 20% of 109 is 21.8, or around 22. 109-22 is 87. 15% of 109 is around 16. 109-16 is 93, so 87-93 knots, so more or less 90 knots rather than 80 knots. I think?

10 kts is a big difference to me XD
man i wanted to reach 10000 on the other blog shoot
90L is under 5-10 knots of wind shear
Quoting btwntx08:
man i wanted to reach 10000 on the other blog shoot


We can still post on the other blog and try and make it to 10000 reallly slowly lol.
Quoting btwntx08:
man i wanted to reach 10000 on the other blog shoot


Go back and start talking about GW... You will be there in no time....


LMAO
I think for Dr. carver to say that based on climatology that this most likely wouldn't be a major threat to the Caribbean or U.S. is absolutely ridiculous. Unless we get a monster trough there is no way this thing doesn't spend its journey going wnw-nw possibly going west in the long run
Two months into the hurricane season nearly and it looks like we won't have a serious storm for at least another 10 days. What's going on?
Quoting Twinkster:
I think for Dr. carver to say that based on climatology that this most likely wouldn't be a major threat to the Caribbean or U.S. is absolutely ridiculous. Unless we get a monster trough there is no way this thing doesn't spend its journey going wnw-nw possibly going west in the long run


I also agree with this. Also, I don't agree with anything somebody from FSU says :P
Quoting caneswatch:


I also agree with this. Also, I don't agree with anything somebody from FSU says :P


LOL
Quoting Levi32:


Eh, how many people are dying from heat in Moscow? Hundreds are dying in Peru from cold, guess that isn't worth mentioning, ever. Oh well.


I assume there are people dieing there as well.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Levi, what do think of these two new circles? Should they work there way to the Carribean or more northward?


The 1st circle east of the Antilles is going straight through the southern Caribbean and will have to be watched for mischief farther west. Invest 90L will likely approach the northern Antilles but its exact track remains unclear, and at this time we can't really know whether it will spend any time in the Caribbean or not.
repost from last blog

wow that is very very good conditions for 90L

from RAMMB



from SSD

Quoting Drakoen:
90L is under 5-10 knots of wind shear
Yeah I don't know where Dr. Carver got the 10-15 knots from. 18z SHIPS text also says that 90L is under 5 knots of shear.

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Repost from last blog:








Where are you guys getting that? 20% of 109 is 21.8, or around 22. 109-22 is 87. 15% of 109 is around 16. 109-16 is 93, so 87-93 knots, so more or less 90 knots rather than 80 knots. I think?

10 kts is a big difference to me XD


Official recon flight-level wind reductions as stated at this year's NHC hurricane conference are as follows:


Recon Flight Wind reduction

1000 mb flight level = 80%

925 mb flight level = 75% (this one is closest to 900mb, so I used this one)

850 mb flight level = 80%

700 mb flight level = 90%
Quoting cornchucker:
Two months into the hurricane season nearly and it looks like we won't have a serious storm for at least another 10 days. What's going on?


(in the voice of that guy that does the Outback steak house commercials)

"DRAMA CASTER"
LOL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I don't know where Dr. Carver got the 10-15 knots from. 18z SHIPS text also says that 90L is under 5 knots of shear.

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7


SHIPS is junk. :)
Quoting angiest:


SHIPS is junk. :)
LOL, not for looking at the environment a system is in.
rob carver much respect to him as he does have the dr. title, didn't do his homework on 90L
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Go back and start talking about GW... You will be there in no time....


LMAO


Can we not and pretend we did?

PLEASE?!?!?!
;)
Quoting DestinJeff:


Recent case of Bonnie going into Central Florida as Exhibit A.


GFDL has 90L moving northwest immediately. It's current movement is WSW with steering indicating a WNW movement soon. The model run is not valid, imo. Both the HWRF and GFDL are never good on their initial runs.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I don't know where Dr. Carver got the 10-15 knots from. 18z SHIPS text also says that 90L is under 5 knots of shear.

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7


marginal to favorable development throughout the run shear wise.
Quoting KimberlyB:


Can we not and pretend we did?

PLEASE?!?!?!
;)


I meant on Doc's last blog entry.... Def not on this blog entry
Quoting Levi32:


Official recon flight-level wind reductions as stated at this year's NHC hurricane conference are as follows:


Recon Flight Wind reduction

1000 mb flight level = 80%

925 mb flight level = 75% (this one is closest to 900mb, so I used this one)

850 mb flight level = 80%

700 mb flight level = 90%


Ah! Ok, was using the 80-85% jeffs713 posted.

Is there a page that states that stuff so I can bookmark it?
Good evening all, I just stopped in to see what condition the conditions were in.

Two blobs to watch is way better than the AGW blog. Could this be the start of the big seasonal push? Most were predicting another 10 days or perhaps a week away yet, but this could be the beginning of something big. I was rather enjoying the lull, and I'm certainly not wishing any storms on anyone. But as a realist I understand that all that heat energy has to go somewhere. Just as long as it stays out of SE LA. Fish storms are better. I don't think the economy could take another big hit anywhere in the south.

Oh well, Bourbon is over by the ice bucket, help yourselves...
Quoting ElConando:


marginal to favorable development throughout the run shear wise.
Yep mainly favorable though. SHIPS also suggests that 90L will run through an area of good OHC starting at 12 hours through 48 hours, then at 96 hours it begins to increase yet again.

HEAT CONTENT 34 39 46 47 48 49 45 30 37 38 53 59 67

Remember this is the 18z run...so it is 6 hours old.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ah! Ok, was using the 80-85% jeffs713 posted.

Is there a page that states that stuff so I can bookmark it?


I don't know if it's found anywhere....I copied it off of StormW's blog this spring which was his notes from the conference.
105. IKE
We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

Good news, unless you're a wishcaster wanting to experience mother nature at her finest.
new map this updated and am starting too see -2.5 tempers

97E in the EPAC now too
Hi everybody...just saw the 18z run of gfs..the system off se coast at 324hrs..is that 90L??
109. IKE
Quoting Twinkster:
I think for Dr. carver to say that based on climatology that this most likely wouldn't be a major threat to the Caribbean or U.S. is absolutely ridiculous. Unless we get a monster trough there is no way this thing doesn't spend its journey going wnw-nw possibly going west in the long run


I wonder how many times this will be repeated on here this evening?
How about instead of the wishcasters and downcasters arguing we just actually keep an eye on this system and not try to predict the future

let the models do that, this system hasn't even developed yet and we are setting up to have arguments already
Quoting Snowlover123:


???


Funny...there is more whining about who they will ignore than whatever post set their delicate sensibilities off in the first place. It gets old. Doesn't ignore work even if you dont talk about it constantly?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
How about instead of the wishcasters and downcasters arguing we just actually keep an eye on this system and not try to predict the future

let the models do that, this system hasn't even developed yet and we are setting up to have arguments already
What's new?
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, do you really want to put a lot of stock on that line from Dr C? I mean, kind of b*llsy to come right out off the designation 1000s of miles from land and say shouldn't be a major threat to CONUS or Caribbean. Don't you think?


It's perfectly fine for him to give his opinion on whether it will ultimately threaten land, although I happen to disagree with it.
Ahhh new header, same body content.
Quoting IKE:
Good news, unless you're a wishcaster wanting to experience mother nature at her finest.


Amazing how many of those exist on this board...
119. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, do you really want to put a lot of stock on that line from Dr C? I mean, kind of b*llsy to come right out off the designation 1000s of miles from land and say shouldn't be a major threat to CONUS or Caribbean. Don't you think?


I hope he's correct. It's his reputation.
MechEngineMet- yeppers, all that heat hasta go somewhere.

speaking if heat, let's not even talk about the 111 indices we had to deal with up here in NE Fla.

and I really hate bourbon. Captain Morgan Private Stock, please. :)
Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening all, I just stopped in to see what condition the conditions were in.

Two blobs to watch is way better than the AGW blog. Could this be the start of the big seasonal push? Most were predicting another 10 days or perhaps a week away yet, but this could be the beginning of something big. I was rather enjoying the lull, and I'm certainly not wishing any storms on anyone. But as a realist I understand that all that heat energy has to go somewhere. Just as long as it stays out of SE LA. Fish storms are better. I don't think the economy could take another big hit anywhere in the south.

Oh well, Bourbon is over by the ice bucket, help yourselves...


Amen on the fish storms, the last thing we need is another hit. I don't think our wallets can take another insurance hike.

I'll pass on the bourbon just pour the ice over my head, so hot here in LA.
122. xcool
THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 9N25W 8N29W 8N33W 13N53W
11N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW PRES
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N31W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 41W. HOVMOELLER DIAGRAMS...LONG
TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TROUGH IS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL THEREFORE BE
INTRODUCED ON THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
Quoting IKE:


I wonder how many times this will be repeated on here this evening?



why shouldn't it be repeated. what rob carver said was ridiculous this far out. If I was going to base a forecast for 90L right now based on climatology it would be heading towards the southern carribean based on the clipper model.

I hope it goes out sea and doesn't effect land but to say that anything is unlikely as of right now is not only irresponsible but ridiculous
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall.

Specifically that is what he said and climatology is a major consideration in weather prediction. Whether you "believe" it on not.


Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.



Excellent - there are several interesting things going on there that could use more explanation,
Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening all, I just stopped in to see what condition the conditions were in.

Two blobs to watch is way better than the AGW blog. Could this be the start of the big seasonal push? Most were predicting another 10 days or perhaps a week away yet, but this could be the beginning of something big. I was rather enjoying the lull, and I'm certainly not wishing any storms on anyone. But as a realist I understand that all that heat energy has to go somewhere. Just as long as it stays out of SE LA. Fish storms are better. I don't think the economy could take another big hit anywhere in the south.

Oh well, Bourbon is over by the ice bucket, help yourselves...

I 'm just leaving, but I'll stick with the Coors Light :-) cheers!
Quoting thelmores:
Wowsa! Talking about bullish on 90L!



Quoting xcool:
THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 9N25W 8N29W 8N33W 13N53W
11N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW PRES
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N31W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 41W. HOVMOELLER DIAGRAMS...LONG
TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TROUGH IS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL THEREFORE BE
INTRODUCED ON THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.


Lol, I changed my mind too soon. It was a tropical wave after all.
128. xcool
lol
I just looked at steering and it looks like a westward track till it reaches near 55W i5t starts a WNWward tack there after
Quoting xcool:
THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 9N25W 8N29W 8N33W 13N53W
11N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW PRES
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N31W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 41W. HOVMOELLER DIAGRAMS...LONG
TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TROUGH IS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL THEREFORE BE
INTRODUCED ON THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
Ooopppsss! My bad, lol. I thought it was an ITCZ disturbance all along.
I thought it was a ITCZ disturbance too.
Does anyone know what the previous blog had for the number of posts!?

I know I broke the 6000 mark and made history! (blog didn't crash) So all of you can call me, "Mr. 6000" from now on! LOL
i hope he doesnt update the blog for that stay with tropics
135. xcool
lmao ha mia
137. xcool
me to rob
The gfdl seems to have 90l push northward through a lot of high pressure. Not sure that will happen.
Oh God, the trough is now a tropical wave LOL.
I was pretty much in line with them not have it as a tropical wave and no indication of one, probably data they can see that I can't.
142. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ooopppsss! My bad, lol. I thought it was an ITCZ disturbance all along.


Thanks for posting that...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I thought it was a ITCZ disturbance too.


Drives me nuts....I should stick to my gut but I listened to Drak lol :)
144. xcool
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/300004.shtml


go here for proof
Funny how everyone who agrees with you is an expert, yet everyone with a differing opinion is a jackwagon.

Pass da Keith's
146. beell
Wait, gave credit to the wrong poster!
Ah, a new blog...the world is spinning correctly again...evening everyone!
148. xcool
poor lev
Romancing the Models
I thought I saw an inverted V feature in that area earlier today.....

Guess Senior Chief Caster taught me better than even I thought...
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall.

Specifically that is what he said and climatology is a major consideration in weather prediction. Whether you "believe" it on not.


Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.



Excellent - there are several interesting things going on there that could use more explanation,


Thank you for the "hot air advisory"

People should be below ground.
I think I might be one of those "wishcasters"...if I am understanding the word right. Is that like the worse sin that can be committed here? (besides the heresy of questioning the not-to-be-questioned global warming gurus of course)
About global warming I am not a wishcaster. I am a realist regarding that nonsense.
Interestingly enough in the TWO they refered to it as an area of disturbed weather and not a tropical wave. Oh well...turns out to be a tropical wave after all.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
155. beell
On the 25th - Dakar, Senegal.



Link
Quoting beell:


Thanks for posting that...
You mean Xcool.
Quoting beell:
Wait, gave credit to the wrong poster!
LOL!
how many of these systems that originate out by the CV Islands actually do impact land?

I would say less than half of them, way to go out on a limb by saying it won't impact land lol
Quoting beell:
On the 25th - Dakar, Senegal.



No that was not it. That was the one currently nearing the eastern Caribbean and I can pull up sat pics to prove it. My original feeling was that this was a low-amplitude wave and not picked up by Dakar.
You'd never guess who decided to venture over to The Weather Channel's live chat they're doing tonight--none other than JFV, pestering Dr. Knabb about 90L...*sigh*
160. xcool
90L be a wave 00z
Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone know what the previous blog had for the number of posts!?

I know I broke the 6000 mark and made history! (blog didn't crash) So all of you can call me, "Mr. 6000" from now on! LOL


Over 7000
Quoting beell:
On the 25th - Dakar, Senegal.



On the 25th wouldn't that be associated with the wave near the Lesser Antilles. The Hovmoller Diagram would support that as well.
" Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US."

Seems 90L may go North of the is1ands, and curve up the eastern seaboard before landfa11

sti1l ear1y, but seems most likely

a1so may be the first Hurricane, seems very possib1le!
Quoting DestinJeff:


You are quite the expert in these kinds of observations. For a jackwagon.


Ya know what makes me sad? :-P

And don't question the doctors titanium test... well ya know.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Of course. And he did qualify with "we'll have to watch this" ... but given some of the current modeling, although several days away, it seems kind of -- well, b[oops]llsy -- to even voice that opinion.

Not getting into the everybody has a right to their opinion stuff. I am giving credit for him saying something like that this far out.


Lack of climatological sophistication is showing here - because this isnt "this far out" from points encountered in the historic record. Right? - that perspective has no bearing as everything in the universe isn't gauged and modeled relative to your specific position.

quakeman, now that's funny.

Hahaha, better the WeatherChanel than us!
Finally flipped to 18z

Quoting aquak9:
MechEngineMet- yeppers, all that heat hasta go somewhere.

speaking if heat, let's not even talk about the 111� indices we had to deal with up here in NE Fla.

and I really hate bourbon. Captain Morgan Private Stock, please. :)


Yes, it's been balmy in SELA as well. Heat index is depressing. It makes you not want to leave the house.
Capt. Morgan is my sailing companion of choice, (Second only to the wife of course.)
Quoting Levi32:


Drives me nuts....I should stick to my gut but I listened to Drak lol :)


Oh no, you didn't listen to me, you never do LOL. You listened to the NHC.
Quoting Congress:


-_-.

My sentiments exactly...

"Hi, Dr. knabb, what are your brief thoughts on 90l this evening, sir?"

Such a JFV thing to say. ha
Quoting stormpetrol:
Romancing the Models
90L brings to mind Ivan a little too much for me.
So, will 90L being a tropical rather rather than a ITCZ disturbance help it? Not a expert on the ITCZ sorry.
Quoting aquak9:
quakeman, now that's funny.

Hahaha, better the WeatherChanel than us!

I'll say. Poor Dr. Knabb though. lol
175. xcool
lolol drak
176. beell
Quoting Levi32:


No that was not it. That was the one currently nearing the eastern Caribbean and I can pull up sat pics to prove it.


Close to 2500nm in 4 days?
Quoting Drakoen:


Oh no, you didn't listen to me, you never do LOL. You listened to the NHC.


Either/or....LOL.
178. IKE
90L...

Quoting beell:


Close to 2500nm in 4 days?


You bet. Some waves can move 10 degrees of longitude per day.

It comes off at the top of this image:

Now, anyone have any idea when this #*%@ing ridge will move out so it can take this blasted heat with it? So ready for summer to be over and cooler weather to usher in...
181. srada
Quoting IKE:
We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

Good news, unless you're a wishcaster wanting to experience mother nature at her finest.


Im not a wishcaster (well maybe a little bit:))but isnt that a bit presumptious for Dr. Carver to state it wont affect the islands or the US when its so far out?
Quoting thelmores:
" Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US."

Seems 90L may go North of the is1ands, and curve up the eastern seaboard before landfa11

sti1l ear1y, but seems most likely

a1so may be the first Hurricane, seems very possib1le!


If you mean CV hurricane your correct, we've already had our first hurricane.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall.

Specifically that is what he said and climatology is a major consideration in weather prediction. Whether you "believe" it on not.


Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.



Excellent - there are several interesting things going on there that could use more explanation,


Hey JFlorida. I'm still waiting for an answer from the last blog. Cat got your tongue?
My husband just sent this to me from Impact weather
Tropical Disturbance 29
Issued: 06:25 PM CDT Thursday July 29, 2010

Current Status

At 6PM CDT, the center of Tropical Disturbance 29 was located near 8N/32W. This position is about 2100 miles east of the island of Trinidad. Movement is to the west at 16-18 mph. The disturbance consists of a broad area of thunderstorms about 350-400 miles across. Satellite indicates that there is a well-defined circulation center located aloft, and there may be a weak low pressure area located at the surface. Thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat over the past 6 hours.


Our Forecast

There is very good agreement in all of the models concerning the track of this disturbance over the next 5-7 days, and we see no reason to disagree. We expect the disturbance to move to the west to west-northwest for the next week. This would take the system into or very near the islands of the northeast Caribbean around the middle of next week, on Wednesday or possibly as late as next Thursday morning. Beyond then, high pressure to the north of the system is forecast to be rather weak. This should allow for a slower west-northwesterly motion generally toward the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. There are indications that steering currents may weaken as the system reaches the Bahamas around next Friday and Saturday. But that's a long way off to have much confidence in the projected steering patterns. It's possible that the system could reach the southeastern U.S.the weekend of August 8th-9th.

Development Potential
Concerning development and possible strengthening, all model guidance is in agreement that the disturbance will be developing into the third tropical storm of the 2010 season. In fact, initial guidance is in strong agreement that conditions will be favorable for this disturbance to become a hurricane within the next 3-4 days. But considering the current state of organization, we think that any development would occur more slowly, and we're going to be a bit conservative with our estimate of its development potential on this first advisory. We think that there may be about a 15 percent chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, we think that development chances may be at least 40 percent. And if it does become a tropical storm, then we see nothing to prevent it from continuing to intensify to hurricane strength east of the Caribbean by early next week.
The next update will be issued by 7AM CDT tomorrow.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech


185. xcool
Quoting Levi32:


The 1st circle east of the Antilles is going straight through the southern Caribbean and will have to be watched for mischief farther west. Invest 90L will likely approach the northern Antilles but its exact track remains unclear, and at this time we can't really know whether it will spend any time in the Caribbean or not.


ok, thanks.
And 90L is clearly depicted as a wave on the hovmoller.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So, will 90L being a tropical rather rather than a ITCZ disturbance help it? Not a expert on the ITCZ sorry.


depends on how dependent it is on the ITCZ...it's at what, 7.5º now? It's gotta pull north a little.

Hi Beeell!! I got to see Dave Matthews live last night!!
189. IKE
Quoting srada:


Im not a wishcaster (well maybe a little bit:))but isnt that a bit presumptious for Dr. Carver to state it wont affect the islands or the US when its so far out?


If that's what he see's, I'd rather him let us know.
190. xcool
90L NOW WAVE
Evening Ike, Aqua
Quoting Levi32:


You bet. Some waves can move 10 degrees of longitude per day.

It comes off at the top of this image:



Dang that is over 500 miles Levi....... Depending on how far north or south you are..
Quoting quakeman55:
Now, anyone have any idea when this #*%@ing ridge will move out so it can take this blasted heat with it? So ready for summer to be over and cooler weather to usher in...


Sorry, this isn't your year if you're in the SE US. Winter will be warm down there too.
Quoting MechEngMet:


Hey JFlorida. I'm still waiting for an answer from the last blog. Cat got your tongue?


I did not see your question. I hope it is a real question and not a violation of board rules.
Tomatoes - tomahtos, what difference does it make if its a wave or a disturbance...
197. KYDan
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

I am trying to read between the lines here. Could he be of the opinion that the invest will not have a good chance to develop into a TD or hurricane and thus not threaten land? Could that be his thought rather than him disagreeing with what track the ow might take?

Just wondering out loud.
evening earthly
199. beell
Quoting Levi32:


You bet. Some waves can move 10 degrees of longitude per day.

It comes off at the top of this image:



Well, upon further review...
Thanks!

90L near Dakar on the 27th.
thanks LaDobe!

Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, this isn't your year if you're in the SE US. Winter will be warm down there too.


Last winter devastated my area's crops and strawberries. Huge implications. I am very hopeful that this winter will be warmer, kinda like the 07-08 winter.
Quoting srada:


Im not a wishcaster (well maybe a little bit:))but isnt that a bit presumptious for Dr. Carver to state it wont affect the islands or the US when its so far out?


I suppose it depends on whether he knows what he is talking about or not. I think it has gotten too easy to predict the direst of warnings..."just for safety's sake".
Dr. Rick Knabb told me that 90L has the highest potential at development that far east so far this year
Hey Aquak! Staying cool?
good evening gamber and d'fly.

So previous blog hit 6000, eh? hoo-boy, it's gonna be a LONG week...
I believe Janiel is not bright enough to understand which definition of congress applies to him.

Is lack of congress his problem?

Or is his experience here on the blog his most meaningful substitute?
Quoting beell:


Well, upon further review...
Thanks!

90L near Dakar on the 27th.


No that's the wave that just came off the coast of Africa.
LaDobe are you KIDDIN'??

it's was like 111º indices today. Saw Satan himself sittin' on the curb, sippin' a goatorade.
209. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


No that's the wave that just came off the coast of Africa.


I started at the bottom frame at 30W and worked up the diagram.
That was koolaide I was drinkin' Water puppy....LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dr. Rick Knabb told me that 90L has the highest potential at development that far east so far this year


Excuse me.. he told 'you'?
Quoting aquak9:
good evening gamber and d'fly.

So previous blog hit 6000, eh? hoo-boy, it's gonna be a LONG week...


Hey Quak and Gambler... I prefer talking about swirls than GW... SO Im good!
214. xcool
90L is near Dakar at 11z the 27nd, and near the Meridian at 23z the 25th.
Quoting beell:


I started at the bottom frame at 30W and worked up the diagram.
Yeah I agree with you.
I AM NOT WATCHING ANY OF THE MODELES RIGHT NOW ITS A WAITING OF TIME. I WILL LOOK AT THE MODELES WHEN THE STORM GET NEXT TO THE USA..AND INVEST 90l is moving so slow MODELS ARE GOING TO MOVE AROUND EVERY FIVE HOURS ANYHOW..
Oh this - lol.

7281. MechEngMet 11:36 PM GMT on July 29, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined ....

You said it, now you Prove it.


GW is used as a descriptor for climate change here. As it actually means the rapid increase of G gases over a few centuries and the effects it will have on the planet.

World Climate being the sum of all weather events on the planet. All combined heatwaves, floods, tropical systems, etc... occurring under the period defined.

Pretty straightforward.

Main Entry: cli%uFFFDmate
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English climat, from Middle French, from Late Latin climat-, clima, from Greek klimat-, klima inclination, latitude, climate, from klinein to lean %u2014 more at lean
Date: 14th century

1 : a region of the earth having specified climatic conditions
2 a : the average course or condition of the weather at a place usually over a period of years as exhibited by temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation b : the prevailing set of conditions (as of temperature and humidity) indoors
3 : the prevailing influence or environmental conditions characterizing a group or period : atmosphere


You have another definition?
219. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


I can tell you wanted to say something about how it looks.


Yeah...dmin doing a number on it. Needs a good dmax.
I'm just glad to see there is someone in here worth talking to about it. No ones been here all day that I've seen.
Quoting aquak9:
LaDobe are you KIDDIN'??

it's was like 111º indices today. Saw Satan himself sittin' on the curb, sippin' a goatorade.


Here too, but ever since the Saints won the Super Bowl hell has frozen over...but the flying pigs like it.
Loss of convection is expected as shown as 90L leaves the ITCZ. Its becoming less dependent on it (its still dependent however)


Probably be all the way across soon.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Excuse me.. he told 'you'?


mhm. Go to Weather.com and it'll have a link on the right side of the homepage.
Quoting beell:


I started at the bottom frame at 30W and worked up the diagram.


I see what you are saying. I think what made it confusing for me was the close proximity to the higher amplitude wave behind... but alas if I am wrong then so be it.
AL 90 2010073000 BEST 0 82N 313W 20 1010 DB
227. SLU
866

WHXX01 KWBC 300051

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0051 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100730 0000 100730 1200 100731 0000 100731 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 31.3W 8.1N 32.5W 8.1N 33.7W 8.3N 34.9W

BAMD 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.3W 8.8N 33.4W 9.6N 34.7W

BAMM 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.5W 8.7N 33.6W 9.2N 34.9W

LBAR 8.2N 31.3W 8.0N 33.8W 8.5N 36.6W 9.2N 39.6W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100801 0000 100802 0000 100803 0000 100804 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.5N 36.2W 8.7N 39.6W 10.6N 44.1W 14.2N 50.5W

BAMD 10.4N 36.4W 11.7N 40.8W 13.2N 46.4W 15.4N 52.1W

BAMM 9.7N 36.6W 10.1N 40.8W 10.8N 45.8W 13.3N 51.1W

LBAR 10.3N 42.8W 11.8N 49.2W 12.1N 54.7W 14.9N 58.1W

SHIP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS

DSHP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 28.5W DIRM12 = 252DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 25.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting Drakoen:


I see what you are saying. I think what made it confusing for me was the close proximity to the higher amplitude wave behind... but alas if I am wrong then so be it.


I don't think we need feel bad about it....after all the NHC didn't see it until now either.
Quoting msgambler:
That was koolaide I was drinkin' Water puppy....LOL


bwwwahahhaaa!!

d'fly PLEASE call me aqua, it's aqua-canine. Otherwise you make me sound like a sick duck.
hey stormwatcherCI 90L might even pull off a Ivan track so watch it
Quoting MechEngMet:


Hey JFlorida. I'm still waiting for an answer from the last blog. Cat got your tongue?


Watch what cha say or a few of them will Flag you,I just found out SSG or whatever it's name is flagged me for stating the truth. Just thought i would warn you. flagging can go both ways i promise, i never flagged anyone before today.
this tropical wave looks good. don't want to get off subject either.
sheri
234. SLU
Still losing latitude. Heading is 255 degrees.
Quoting SLU:
866

WHXX01 KWBC 300051

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0051 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100730 0000 100730 1200 100731 0000 100731 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 31.3W 8.1N 32.5W 8.1N 33.7W 8.3N 34.9W

BAMD 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.3W 8.8N 33.4W 9.6N 34.7W

BAMM 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.5W 8.7N 33.6W 9.2N 34.9W

LBAR 8.2N 31.3W 8.0N 33.8W 8.5N 36.6W 9.2N 39.6W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100801 0000 100802 0000 100803 0000 100804 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.5N 36.2W 8.7N 39.6W 10.6N 44.1W 14.2N 50.5W

BAMD 10.4N 36.4W 11.7N 40.8W 13.2N 46.4W 15.4N 52.1W

BAMM 9.7N 36.6W 10.1N 40.8W 10.8N 45.8W 13.3N 51.1W

LBAR 10.3N 42.8W 11.8N 49.2W 12.1N 54.7W 14.9N 58.1W

SHIP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS

DSHP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 28.5W DIRM12 = 252DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 25.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN




Sheesh.. 91 kts.
If 90L does develop (which it has a high chance to do so) does it appear that it will a fish storm or something more?
"I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US."

Wow, that is a bold statement.
Quoting SLU:
Still losing latitude. Heading is 255 degrees.


Following the ITCZ, its still dependent on it.
gambler...it's all good, I think some folks just LIKE to argue.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Hey Quak and Gambler... I prefer talking about swirls than GW... SO Im good!


You can say that goes for me as well. +1000

Good evening EarthDragon.
SHIPS taking 90L to 105mph.

AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 0, 82N, 313W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 12, 83N, 325W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 24, 87N, 336W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 36, 92N, 349W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 48, 97N, 366W, 51, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 60, 100N, 386W, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 72, 101N, 408W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 84, 102N, 433W, 77, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 96, 108N, 458W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 108, 118N, 485W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, SHIP, 120, 133N, 511W, 91, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Evening Orca
Oh, we also have an invest in the East Pacific


EP 97 2010073000 BEST 0 95N 930W 25 1009 DB
LGEM taking 90L to 116mph. It appears to be going through RI.

AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 0, 82N, 313W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 12, 83N, 325W, 22, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 24, 87N, 336W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 36, 92N, 349W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 48, 97N, 366W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 60, 100N, 386W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 72, 101N, 408W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 84, 102N, 433W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 96, 108N, 458W, 75, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 108, 118N, 485W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, LGEM, 120, 133N, 511W, 101, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Yeah Aqua, but they should know what they are talking about first.....LOL
Quoting TankHead93:
If 90L does develop (which it has a high chance to do so) does it appear that it will a fish storm or something more?


Too early, but many indicators show that this may in fact be an East Coast landfall, whether it be Florida or somewhere farther north.
some in tell me 90L may be are 1st cat 5
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SHIPS taking 90L to 105mph.
I DO NOT THINK SO MAYBE 80 MPH.
Quoting msgambler:
Yeah Aqua, but they should know what they are talking about first.....LOL


I haven't got a clue about anything so that's why I don't argue! (wanders around sofa, looking for popcorn droppings)
Quoting DestinJeff:


He means in the model run.

Don't freak out.
LOL, yes I mean in the model run.
I'm not going to agree or disagree with Dr. Carver about the likely hood of 90L affecting land, but I am going to question the logic of the basis of his opinion on this subject.

I don't have the information he does concerning what has formed within 1 degree of 90L but I'm going to go out on a limb and make the (pretty safe) assumption that there has been only a handful of tropical cyclones to have passed said location. While averages are usually fairly accurate when pulling from a large data pool, they are grossly inaccurate when pooling from a very small one.

Also, he is going by cyclones that were already formed and designated as such within 1 degree of 90L, there is a huge tracking difference between an ITCZ embedded wave and a formed cyclone at this latitude.

Again, not disagreeing with Dr. Carver, but I just don't see this particular opinion being a valid one due to the data set it is based on having little pertinence to 90L
Quoting Levi32:


I don't think we need feel bad about it....after all the NHC didn't see it until now either.


That is true. But they have forecasters to analyze these things 24/7 vs. my one-shot analysis...LOL
256. SLU
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 46 54 64 75 89 101

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 9 7 10 12 11 9 7 11 10 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 59 59 70 86 73 106 161 167 140 92 79 23 32
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 155 154 150 147 148 148 148 145 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 153 154 155 155 151 149 151 152 153 149 151
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9
700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 69 71 72 76 76 77 76 77 75 69
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 6 7 15 23 36 50 61 66 58 51 33
200 MB DIV 36 48 35 66 80 55 80 84 80 63 61 66 68
LAND (KM) 1557 1530 1497 1483 1471 1458 1450 1441 1325 1107 966 876 902
LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.8 11.8 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.9 36.6 38.6 40.8 43.3 45.8 48.5 51.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 49 50 50 52 50 50 36 39 35 53 55 56 66

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 31. 41. 49. 57. 63. 69. 71.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY

Very low shear in the forecast
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
I DO NOT THINK SO MAYBE 80 MPH.
??? Use a conversion calculator.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Following the ITCZ, its still dependent on it.
Quoting aquak9:


bwwwahahhaaa!!

d'fly PLEASE call me aqua, it's aqua-canine. Otherwise you make me sound like a sick duck.


Ok Duckie.... LOL... JK... I like the water pup..
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
I DO NOT THINK SO MAYBE 80 MPH.



yelling caster
261. SLU
S-C-A-R-Y The downcasting days are coming to an abrupt end.
JASON you're as "cool" as 90L's current cloudtops.
Quoting DestinJeff:


He means in the model run.

Don't freak out.

Well, we'll really get something to watch :O)!!

I also received good news I get to start my new job at Telvista, in Dallas, TX starting Mon 8-2-10 at 3:40-12:40PM!!
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH

might even see this track from 90L

Quoting Tazmanian:



yelling caster


Scream Caster... LOL
Quoting SLU:
S-C-A-R-Y The downcasting days are coming to an abrupt end.


Trust me, no they are not.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormwatcherCI 90L might even pull off a Ivan track so watch it
We better pray it doesn't or if it does it is not as strong.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Ok Duckie.... LOL... JK... I like the water pup..
Hey, that's my "pet" name for her....LOL
All I can say is that I see many models taking this to Cat 2 strength in about 5 days...
270. beell
Duh, I see what screwed me up. Missing 00Z data from the 27th.



Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Following the ITCZ, its still dependent on it.


That puts it in kinda a meh situation, if it is independent enough that it is losing convection because it needs to get used to sustaining itself (yes I know it's DMIN), yet it's still dependent enough that it's following the ITCZ and losing latitude. However it should start gaining latitude and self sustaining convection tomorrow according to models.. (considering they strengthen it and bring its latitude up.. slowly at first, then at a quicker pace later on)
Quoting TankHead93:
If 90L does develop (which it has a high chance to do so) does it appear that it will a fish storm or something more?


A Phytoplankton Spinner.

Right on Dr M.! We need more GW awareness or we will soon be living in a Venus type climate full of hypercanes. The Moscow and European/Asian heatwaves are further proof. They were frying eggs on the concrete of red square yesterday. Please Al Gore guide,enlighten! and unite us!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All I can say is that I see many models taking this to Cat 2 strength in about 5 days...

Lets hope 90L stays tame and away from populated regions, but it's about time we get some TC activity!
Quoting beell:
Duh, I see what screwed me up. Missing 00Z data from the 27th.



Link


Oh Wow nice find! It screwed both of us lol.. that's why we couldn't detect it.
Quoting SLU:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 60 69 77 83 89 91
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 46 54 64 75 89 101

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 9 7 10 12 11 9 7 11 10 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 59 59 70 86 73 106 161 167 140 92 79 23 32
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 155 154 150 147 148 148 148 145 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 153 154 155 155 151 149 151 152 153 149 151
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9
700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 69 71 72 76 76 77 76 77 75 69
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 6 7 15 23 36 50 61 66 58 51 33
200 MB DIV 36 48 35 66 80 55 80 84 80 63 61 66 68
LAND (KM) 1557 1530 1497 1483 1471 1458 1450 1441 1325 1107 966 876 902
LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.8 11.8 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.9 36.6 38.6 40.8 43.3 45.8 48.5 51.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 49 50 50 52 50 50 36 39 35 53 55 56 66

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 31. 41. 49. 57. 63. 69. 71.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY

Very low shear in the forecast


Good that SHIPS dropped the RI probabilities considerably.
277. SLU
Looks like once this system gets going, it could commence a steady march towards major hurricane status if i'm to follow the latest model runs.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Scream Caster... LOL


Oil Caster
Quoting weathermancer:


A Phytoplankton Spinner.


Hey a "Photoplankton Spin-caster". I like that :o)
nevermind
Is there a OFCL track yet?
Partly due to the two massive tropical waves that merged in the central Atlantic, a secondary ITCZ has formed west of 40W and is located all the way up along 14N. You do not see this every day.

evening everyone ,I see ships and some models develope 90L into a strong cat. 1 ,,, anyone have any speculation on its future track?? thanks
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Right on Dr M.! We need more GW awareness or we will soon be living in a Venus type climate full of hypercanes. The Moscow and European/Asian heatwaves are further proof. They were frying eggs on the concrete of red square yesterday. Please Al Gore guide,enlighten! and unite us!
don't worry about a thing mother nature is going to take care of everything we are approaching a great crossroads many here will likly not make it
Quoting beell:
Duh, I see what screwed me up. Missing 00Z data from the 27th.



Link


LOL! Nice catch....wow. No wonder we missed it.
When Dr. Carver says that a system within 1%u02DA of 90L has never made landfall, it really goes down to the wire.

Ivan: 9.6N 32.9W -- Link

90L: 8.2N 31.3W -- Link
Quoting Levi32:
Partly due to the two massive waves that merged in the central Atlantic, a secondary ITCZ has formed west of 40W and is located all the way up along 14N. You do not see this every day.


Welcome to the 2010 ATL Hurricane Season everyone :o)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry about a thing mother nature is going to take care of everything we are approaching a great crossroads many here will likly not make it


12-21-12?
291. SLU
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Good that SHIPS dropped the RI probabilities considerably.


Yeah. The RI flag is down now and given the system's poor satellite representation, it's going to take a while before it pulls together.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Lets hope 90L stays tame and away from populated regions, but it's about time we get some TC activity!
its time to flip the switch
Quoting aquak9:
LaDobe are you KIDDIN'??

it's was like 111 indices today. Saw Satan himself sittin' on the curb, sippin' a goatorade.


AT 8:00 this evening we were recording 91F at 59% for a Heat Index of 101F. EIGHT in the Evening! G___ help us tomorrow.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Is there a OFCL track yet?
Not yet. However to give you an idea, the TVCN is rather north.

AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 0, 82N, 313W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 12, 84N, 319W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 24, 92N, 331W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 36, 104N, 346W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 48, 117N, 364W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 60, 128N, 388W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 72, 139N, 417W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 84, 152N, 450W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 96, 167N, 483W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 108, 183N, 514W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 120, 199N, 543W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010073000, 03, TVCN, 132, 214N, 568W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010073000, , BEST, 0, 82N, 313W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

These are the last two ATCF fixes. While the pressure did not decrease, it looks like the outside pressures increased while the system pressure remained the same, which should strengthen those winds (slightly, it's just a 1 mb difference)

I've learned from others those are outside pressures but I'm not completely sure though..
296. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That kind of favors what Dr. Carver was saying.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Watch what cha say or a few of them will Flag you,I just found out SSG or whatever it's name is flagged me for stating the truth. Just thought i would warn you. flagging can go both ways i promise, i never flagged anyone before today.
this tropical wave looks good. don't want to get off subject either.
sheri


LOL, at least you did not get inflammatory emails and have to get assistance from Admin to fix it. ;)

(and I do have them saved)

Just so the blog knows also, I communicated with Anthony Watts today and Steve Goddard is a living and breathing person. He stated for someone to say it is anything else is flat out wrong. Just so ya know for I don't see the propaganda from the initiator of the inaccurate information anymore.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry about a thing mother nature is going to take care of everything we are approaching a great crossroads many here will likly not make it


Will Mother Nature re-assimilate the humans?
Quoting weathermancer:


Oil Caster


Petroli Caster
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_90.gif


Gonna be a long season with these outrageous poleward biases in the US models. The BAM suite is outperforming our hurricane models in some situations and that's embarrassing.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


12-21-12?
no its called imbalanced and mom is going to do some drastic stuff to balance out
Quoting Levi32:


Gonna be a long season with these outrageous poleward biases in the US models. The BAM suite is outperforming our hurricane models in some situations and that's embarrassing.



It's always like Deja-vu on the models with these systems in the tropical Atlantic.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no its called imbalanced and mom is going to do some drastic stuff to balance out


Don't fool with Mother Nature
Evening KoTG
who knows maybe a planet wide climatic shift everything changes nothing stays the same
Quoting pipelines:
I'm not going to agree or disagree with Dr. Carver about the likely hood of 90L affecting land, but I am going to question the logic of the basis of his opinion on this subject.

I don't have the information he does concerning what has formed within 1 degree of 90L but I'm going to go out on a limb and make the (pretty safe) assumption that there has been only a handful of tropical cyclones to have passed said location. While averages are usually fairly accurate when pulling from a large data pool, they are grossly inaccurate when pooling from a very small one.

Also, he is going by cyclones that were already formed and designated as such within 1 degree of 90L, there is a huge tracking difference between an ITCZ embedded wave and a formed cyclone at this latitude.

Again, not disagreeing with Dr. Carver, but I just don't see this particular opinion being a valid one due to the data set it is based on having little pertinence to 90L


I too think judging this against already formed cyclones makes the point irrelevant. If a hurricane forms east of 40W it almost never hits land. The crashing ENSO ups the chances it could, but still comparing an apple invest to a orange 'cane.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I don't understand it. The AOI is NOT moving NW, the XTRAP is WSW and so is the steering map for quite some time.

Quoting Levi32:


Gonna be a long season with these outrageous poleward biases in the US models. The BAM suite is outperforming our hurricane models in some situations and that's embarrassing.



I'll wait untill we have actual data from an actual cyclone track to make a judgement.
Quoting Levi32:


Gonna be a long season with these outrageous poleward biases in the US models. The BAM suite is outperforming our hurricane models in some situations and that's embarrassing.


Rob Carver says it will not likely be a threat to the US or Carribean what are you seeing that is different? PLease explain for me
Quoting msgambler:
Evening KoTG
evening msgambler
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, at least you did not get inflammatory emails and have to get assistance from Admin to fix it. ;)

Just so the blog knows also, I communicated with Anthony Watts today and Steve Goddard is a living and breathing person. He stated for someone to say it is anything else is flat out wrong. Just so ya know for I don't see the propaganda from the initiator of the inaccurate information anymore.


Oh they reported me, but none of mine were "removed for content violations". Everything I said was factual, so it couldn't be knocked. I think they both have me on ignore now, and it's a far better blog now for it.
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, at least you did not get inflammatory emails and have to get assistance from Admin to fix it. ;)

Just so the blog knows also, I communicated with Anthony Watts today and Steve Goddard is a living and breathing person. He stated for someone to say it is anything else is flat out wrong. Just so ya know for I don't see the propaganda from the initiator of the inaccurate information anymore.


Oh my that sounds bad.
sheri
Quoting SLU:


Yeah. The RI flag is down now and given the system's poor satellite representation, it's going to take a while before it pulls together.


Yeah I agree.
AL, 90, 201007300000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 800N, 3150W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET9, ULCC, T, DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO CON PA=60 NMI
Latest CIMSS update shows 850mb maximums with both areas of disturbed weather.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 90, 201007300000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 800N, 3150W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET9, ULCC, T, DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO CON PA=60 NMI


Err.. got a translated version?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'll wait untill we have actual data from an actual cyclone track to make a judgement.


Go look at Bonnie.
318. SLU
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When Dr. Carver says that a system within 1%u02DA of 90L has never made landfall, it really goes down to the wire.

Ivan: 9.6N 32.9W -- Link

90L: 8.2N 31.3W -- Link


FRAN 1990?

Date: 11-14 AUG 1990
Tropical Storm FRAN
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 9.00 -32.10 08/11/12Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 8.50 -34.00 08/11/18Z 25 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 8.30 -36.20 08/12/00Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 8.20 -39.00 08/12/06Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
5 8.00 -42.00 08/12/12Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
6 7.90 -44.60 08/12/18Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
7 8.20 -46.80 08/13/00Z 15 - TROPICAL WAVE
8 8.40 -48.90 08/13/06Z 15 - TROPICAL WAVE
9 8.70 -51.10 08/13/12Z 30 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10 9.00 -53.60 08/13/18Z 35 1010 TROPICAL STORM
11 9.20 -56.00 08/14/00Z 35 1009 TROPICAL STORM
12 9.70 -59.00 08/14/06Z 35 1008 TROPICAL STORM
13 10.20 -61.30 08/14/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM

I said a couple of weeks ago that the C storm was going to be bad. Now look! MOdels take it to Cat 2. with a possibility of a USA landfall!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 90, 201007300000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 800N, 3150W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET9, ULCC, T, DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO CON PA=60 NMI
In case that you don't understand that format:

30/0000 UTC 8.0N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 90L
Quoting Levi32:


Go look at Bonnie.

please look at 309 I am confused. Please respond
Quoting SLU:


FRAN 1990?

Date: 11-14 AUG 1990
Tropical Storm FRAN
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 9.00 -32.10 08/11/12Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 8.50 -34.00 08/11/18Z 25 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 8.30 -36.20 08/12/00Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 8.20 -39.00 08/12/06Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
5 8.00 -42.00 08/12/12Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
6 7.90 -44.60 08/12/18Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
7 8.20 -46.80 08/13/00Z 15 - TROPICAL WAVE
8 8.40 -48.90 08/13/06Z 15 - TROPICAL WAVE
9 8.70 -51.10 08/13/12Z 30 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10 9.00 -53.60 08/13/18Z 35 1010 TROPICAL STORM
11 9.20 -56.00 08/14/00Z 35 1009 TROPICAL STORM
12 9.70 -59.00 08/14/06Z 35 1008 TROPICAL STORM
13 10.20 -61.30 08/14/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM

Those coordinates are within 1 degree of 90L.

90L: 8.2N 31.3W
Fran: 9.0N 32.1W
you cant use systems like Fran or Ivan; I think he is referring to systems out near where 90L is now in late July

again Allen formed on July 31st at 30W in 1980 and hit the US, it was also further north so that would be a pretty good example to disprove his theory
324. A4Guy
it's so obvious how untrained my eye is. here, 90L looks like it got "worse" today, yet NHC says it is showing signs of organization. Sigh - i'll never get it.
Quoting gator23:

Rob Carver says it will not likely be a threat to the US or Carribean what are you seeing that is different? PLease explain for me


My post wasn't meant to infer that 90L will hit the US or Caribbean, but rather that the US hurricane models are much too far north with the track. This will come further west and south but it is still unclear whether it will pass north of the Caribbean or cross some of the NE Caribbean islands. After that, the future track is largely unknown, but there is enough evidence in my mind to argue for a track that could make it all the way west and make landfall. It is all largely speculation at this point, but don't write it off as a fish.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When Dr. Carver says that a system within 1%u02DA of 90L has never made landfall, it really goes down to the wire.

Ivan: 9.6N 32.9W -- Link

90L: 8.2N 31.3W -- Link



Something to note, 90L is not an organized system, the climatology is for organized named storms. 90L most likely will not develop much before 50W, IMO.
INV/90/L
MARK
8.3N/31.4W
Quoting A4Guy:
it's so obvious how untrained my eye is. here, 90L looks like it got "worse" today, yet NHC says it is showing signs of organization. Sigh - i'll never get it.


you are concentrating solely on the convection and not the overall structure of the system, which is a common error of many

while convection has waned; that being partly due to DMIN; the overall organization of the system has improved
Quoting Levi32:


Go look at Bonnie.


So I should make a judgement on a sample size of 1? I know you are a trooper in Joe's "weather war" with NOAA/NWS/NHC/TAFB but I like to make my judgements on actual data.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I said a couple of weeks ago that the C storm was going to be bad. Now look! MOdels take it to Cat 2. with a possibility of a USA landfall!
Yes you did. Good job! LOL :D
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are concentrating solely on the convection and not the overall structure of the system, which is a common error of many

while convection has waned; that being partly due to DMIN; the overall organization of the system has improved
Indeed. 90L has developed an area of low pressure which can't be considered as disorganization.
Quoting A4Guy:
it's so obvious how untrained my eye is. here, 90L looks like it got "worse" today, yet NHC says it is showing signs of organization. Sigh - i'll never get it.


You don't just look at the convection. Structurally, the system is displaying signs of organizing, with a pronounced cyclonic curvature noted in satellite imagery.
Quoting Levi32:


My post wasn't meant to infer that 90L will hit the US or Caribbean, but rather that the US hurricane models are much too far north with the track. This will come further west and south but it is still unclear whether it will pass north of the Caribbean or cross some of the NE Caribbean islands. After that, the future track is largely unknown, but there is enough evidence in my mind to argue for a track that could make it all the way west and make landfall. It is all largely speculation at this point, but don't write it off as a fish.

It seems irresponsible of Dr Carver to say that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I said a couple of weeks ago that the C storm was going to be bad. Now look! MOdels take it to Cat 2. with a possibility of a USA landfall!


I must agree with this. If he's got it right, he gets a lifetime supply of cookies :P
Looks like we are going into radiative min forcing for convection...see if the convection flares back in the morning. This system has a long ways to go.

Levi~ I agree, hard to write it off as a fish before it forms.. if it's a raging 'cane before 40W I probably would.
337. SLU
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those coordinates are within 1 degree of 90L.

90L: 8.2N 31.3W
Fran: 9.0N 32.1W


:)
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog
Quoting Skyepony:


I too think judging this against already formed cyclones makes the point irrelevant. If a hurricane forms east of 40W it almost never hits land. The crashing ENSO ups the chances it could, but still comparing an apple invest to a orange 'cane.


good point pipelines and good apple orange analogy skypony.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


So I should make a judgement on a sample size of 1? I know you are a trooper in Joe's "weather war" with NOAA/NWS/NHC/TAFB but I like to make my judgements on actual data.

this is fair, I think that at the end of the season you could probably say that but with just Bonnie you dont have enough info. In laymens terms you cant say that your football team is going to be good just because they won their first game.
Quoting gator23:

It seems irresponsible of Dr Carver to say that.


It is not because he is a forecaster with an opinion, as am I. I happen to disagree with him but neither of us are irresponsible for giving our forecasts.
90 L will fizzle out just as everything other than ALEX this season. I think we may have 10 storms by season end but this is even a bit too aggressive
*Bows to Levi32* We are not worthy!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


So I should make a judgement on a sample size of 1? I know you are a trooper in Joe's "weather war" with NOAA/NWS/NHC/TAFB but I like to make my judgements on actual data.


If there was an archive of model runs on previous storms somewhere I'd give you everything you need. The US hurricane models consistently have a poleward bias, and a bad one.

And for the record, I'm not anti-NOAA.
It seems we have Invest 90L. This system is in a relatively favorable environment that promotes tropical cyclogenesis. Since it is embedded into the ITCZ and close to the equator, it is having a hard time establishing a surface circulation. Satellite imagery also indicates the system has great outflow. We may see a Tropical Storm as early as three days from now, if not earlier.
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog

damn him, with his facts, HOW DARE HE!!
348. IKE
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog


200 WU bloggers went looking for a Kleenex after reading that.
Quoting futuremet:
It seems we have Invest 90L. This system is in a relatively favorable environment that promotes tropical cyclogenesis. Since it is embedded into the ITCZ and close to the equator, it is having a hard time establishing a surface circulation. Satellite imagery also indicates the system has great outflow. We may see a Tropical Storm as early as three days from now, if not earlier.


Well, its now a tropical wave rather than a disturbance embedded within the ITCZ but still needs to leave its influence.
Quoting Levi32:


It is not because he is a forecaster with an opinion, as am I. I happen to disagree with him but neither of us are irresponsible for giving our forecasts.

good point.
Quoting gator23:

damn him, with his facts, HOW DARE HE!!
I was looking for you since people were quoting you...happy that you no longer have a gators avatar. =)
Quoting Levi32:


If there was an archive of model runs on previous storms somewhere I'd give you everything you need. The US hurricane models consistently have a poleward bias, and a bad one.


Archive
Quoting IKE:


200 WU bloggers went looking for a Kleenex after reading that.


LOL!
Quoting thewindman:
90 L will fizzle out just as everything other than ALEX this season. I think we may have 10 storms by season end but this is even a bit too aggressive
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Quoting thewindman:
90 L will fizzle out just as everything other than ALEX this season. I think we may have 10 storms by season end but this is even a bit too aggressive
Oh please. Don't start.
Quoting Levi32:


It is not because he is a forecaster with an opinion, as am I. I happen to disagree with him but neither of us are irresponsible for giving our opinions.
That's what I was thinking. It is only his opinion and he said it is unlikely not impossible.
Quoting gator23:

please look at 309 I am confused. Please respond


check out 306 for an explanation
but still comparing an apple invest to a orange 'cane.

Fruit-caster! :)
Quoting gator23:

damn him, with his facts, HOW DARE HE!!


This thing is all figured out.... Dont come in here, write a blog and confuse everyone by adding fact... Man what has the world come to?

Quoting Levi32:


My post wasn't meant to infer that 90L will hit the US or Caribbean, but rather that the US hurricane models are much too far north with the track. This will come further west and south but it is still unclear whether it will pass north of the Caribbean or cross some of the NE Caribbean islands. After that, the future track is largely unknown, but there is enough evidence in my mind to argue for a track that could make it all the way west and make landfall. It is all largely speculation at this point, but don't write it off as a fish.


For me personally, as much as looking at 90L..... I was looking at what all the models were doing to the A/B High pressure...... seems there is a forecasted weakness off the east coast of the CONUS, which would allow a storm to curve up the coast, and miss the Conus. But obvious, this certainly depends on how much latitude and attitude 90L can muster before getting west......
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog

This is NOT an ordinary Atlantic Hurricane Season :o)
My Evening Weather Analysis hope you enjoy!

Link
363. beell
Levi, Drak, Thanks. I bet I won't make that mistake again.

Knowing 90L is associated with a wave should shed some light on track. It ought to find its groove riding somewhere along/near the ridge periphery. You pick the steering level and isohype, LOL.

I'll take 700mb and 321 dam for $.02 for now.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those coordinates are within 1 degree of 90L.

90L: 8.2N 31.3W
Fran: 9.0N 32.1W


No they are not actually.

It is 1.1 degrees away by using the Pythagorean Theorum and the Distance formula

d = sqrt of (xsub2 - xsub1)^2 + (ysub2 - ysub1)^2

31.3-32.1= -.8
-.8^2=.64

8.2-9.0= -.8
-.8^2=.64

.64 + .64 = 1.28

The square root of 1.28 is 1.13 (doesn't look right, but check yourself, it is)

d=1.13

Well that was a lot to type up over something so minute lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was looking for you since people were quoting you...happy that you no longer have a gators avatar. =)

Its all about the U!!!!!
MiamiHurricanes09~ I think I've seen that study & perhaps no hurricanes that have passed by there hit US/Caribbean. Both your examples are Tropical storms. Would have been nice if he linked it. He's no Masters..
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog


90L is not a tropical cyclone, it's a 20% invest attached to the ITCZ. The statement of climatology on an invest is null and void IMO as there is no climatology to support invests. The climatology will apply when and if 90L decides to become a tropical cyclone.
Quoting beell:
Levi, Drak, Thanks. I bet I won't make that mistake again.

Knowing 90L is associated with a wave should shed some light on track. It ought to find its groove riding somewhere along/near the ridge periphery. You pick the steering level and isohype, LOL.

I'll take 700mb and 321 dam for $.02 for now.


Agree
Quoting Bordonaro:

This is NOT an ordinary Atlantic Hurricane Season :o)
don't tellim now ya gone taken the fun out of it
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog


One thing to note 90L is not a tropical cyclone so the statement By Rob has no merit whatsoever
Quoting thewindman:
90 L will fizzle out just as everything other than ALEX this season. I think we may have 10 storms by season end but this is even a bit too aggressive


POOF
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was looking for you since people were quoting you...happy that you no longer have a gators avatar. =)


Still waiting on yours to come down.

Anytime now...
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No they are not actually.

It is 1.1 degrees away by using the Pythagorean Theorum and the Distance formula

d = sqrt of (xsub2 - xsub1)^2 + (ysub2 - ysub1)^2

31.3-32.1= -.8
-.8^2=.64

8.2-9.0= -.8
-.8^2=.64

.64 + .64 = 1.28

The square root of 1.28 is 1.13 (doesn't look right, but check yourself, it is)

d=1.13

Well that was a lot to type up over something so minute lol

Ughhhh!!! Too may numbers! LOL, I believe that what he meant was within 1 degree of latitude and within 1 degree of longitude.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was looking for you since people were quoting you...happy that you no longer have a gators avatar. =)

WUMail
Quoting Walshy:
Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.

easy way to kill a blog


he also wrote "Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight"

BOOOOOOO!

376. KYDan
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ughhhh!!! Too may numbers! LOL, I believe that what he meant was within 1 degree of latitude and within 1 degree of longitude.


LOL. I think he meant in general. A diagonal line would be longer than a line straight vertical or horizontal between the two points, hence why the hypotenuse of a triangle is always the longest side (of a right triangle) no matter what.

But if he meant latitude and longitude individually, then yeah it is within a degree.
378. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


If there was an archive of model runs on previous storms somewhere I'd give you everything you need. The US hurricane models consistently have a poleward bias, and a bad one.

And for the record, I'm not anti-NOAA.


Without necessarily taking sides on this issue, it's being very brave to go against the US hurricane models since they have a relatively good track record but in this specific case with 90L, the system's heading is WSW or about 255 degrees yet still the models fail to recognise that initial southward component and they take system due WNW from the onset. The BAM suite does take into consideration this initial motion a little better and they show a westward movement for a day or so before they begin to lift the system northwards which makes more sense at least from a meteorological standpoint.

I've seen the US hurricane models have this northward bias so often especially in the deep tropics that sometimes they look almost hopeless.
EvolutionThe latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC

Niño1+2 -2.0ºC


am not sure what part the W PAC Niño it is but am starting to think why the W PAC is haveing a vary slow seanon i think La Niña overe there on there part may be so strong now that it has this shut down the W PAC has trad winds overe there has this took overe


new map this update temper are now geting down too -2.5 and i all so think this is why the W PAC has been dead so far this season i think La Niña is this too strong overe there and this shut down evere thing





any commets on this are welcome
Quoting truecajun:


he also wrote "Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight"

BOOOOOOO!



where we
will discuss
frying eggs on concreate in red square
while thousands freeze in extreme south america
Quoting weatherman12345:

Its all about the U!!!!!


U Caster
Quoting thewindman:
90 L will fizzle out just as everything other than ALEX this season. I think we may have 10 storms by season end but this is even a bit too aggressive

poof
hurrkat u calm down and grow up=reported as well
i though the bamb suite went downward? :(
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..


I don't understand why you say this season is going to be very slow....I mean isn't it not until around now (August)that Hurricane seasons start to ramp up anyways? Like it is starting to do now.
Quoting truecajun:


he also wrote "Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight"

BOOOOOOO!



Oh come on.. it's so bad~ there has been over 2000, mostly highly intoxicated people, that have drowned while trying to cool themselves off in the last two months there. I know heat waves aren't the most exciting but if that's not some crazy heat wave record worthy of mention~ what is??
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..


LOL
in other news ice is still melting

I love this blog.


Quoting SLU:


the system's heading is WSW or about 255 degrees yet still the models fail to recognise that initial southward component and they take system due WNW from the onset. The BAM suite does take into consideration this initial motion a little better and they show a westward movement for a day or so before they begin to lift the system northwards which makes more sense at least from a meteorological standpoint.


I typically ignore models which don't initialize in the right location, or right direction..... in this case extrap and the models don't jive.....

But the GFDL and HWRF, and many other dynamic models don't seem to do well at this stage of cyclogenesis........
btktex im very calm im worrying about you guys killing yourselves...i told you guys the dust and westerly shear will do a number on this season...so deal with it ..we will have a few maybe 3 in august september could be a little busier we will just have to wait and see...but guys that predicted 18+ can throw those down the tubes..even 13 i predicted im starting to be concerned we wont get to that...we will see...
As 90L detaches from the ITCZ [18Z Surface Analysis], it will become more self-sufficient by producing its surface convergence. Once this happens, a well-defined upper level anticyclone will form over it [18Z GFS].
Quoting Drakoen:


Archive


So for starters, we have one of the early HWRF runs on Ike in 2008:



We had the GFDL and GFS taking Alex this year into Louisiana:



And you know the story with Bonnie when the GFDL and HWRF took it into north Florida or Georgia, which was utterly ridiculous.

There are a few more examples but I don't have the time to dig around more. The point is they usually have a bias especially early in the storms's lifetime. I only pulled out the ones I could remember off the top of my head from the last couple years with big names.

If that's anti-NOAA.....lol so be it. Our US models have a problem. Period. They do better when they are locked on with the rest of the group and the situation becomes abundantly clear. The same thing is true with the CFS. The European models trash our's most of the time in a lot of things. It's just a simple fact.
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..
Quoting Skyepony:


Oh come on.. it's so bad~ there has been over 2000, mostly highly intoxicated people, that have drowned while trying to cool themselves off in the last two months there. I know heat waves aren't the most exciting but if that's not some crazy heat wave record worthy of mention~ what is??


i know. i'm just joking because so many people have been upset about the GW discussions. i've tried to calm a few really angry ones by reminding them that it's the docs blog adn it's weather related, so we have to deal.

it's just funny because for the past 2 days all they wanted was something to watch and the blog to update. finally it did due to the wave - something to watch. then bam, he ends the update with GW. but you are right, it is weather news, that's why we can't get mad about it. it's still pretty funny though.
Quoting hurrkat05:
btktex im very calm im worrying about you guys killing yourselves...i told you guys the dust and westerly shear will do a number on this season...so deal with it ..we will have a few maybe 3 in august september could be a little busier we will just have to wait and see...but guys that predicted 18+ can throw those down the tubes..even 13 i predicted im starting to be concerned we wont get to that...we will see...


I can see 10 is just October
Quoting hurrkat05:
btktex im very calm im worrying about you guys killing yourselves...i told you guys the dust and westerly shear will do a number on this season...so deal with it ..we will have a few maybe 3 in august september could be a little busier we will just have to wait and see...but guys that predicted 18+ can throw those down the tubes..even 13 i predicted im starting to be concerned we wont get to that...we will see...

all incorrect those things are going away
Quoting hurrkat05:
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..


This...

Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..
Does anyone have access to the Saharan Air Layer or Aerosol forecasts?
402. BDAwx
Quoting hurrkat05:
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..


13 named storms is not a slow season.
Quoting Levi32:


If there was an archive of model runs on previous storms somewhere I'd give you everything you need. The US hurricane models consistently have a poleward bias, and a bad one.

And for the record, I'm not anti-NOAA.


It varies from year to year and by location. As a whole in the Atlantic basin last year the GFDL (GHMI) and the HWRF were biased SouthEast. Other years, yes they have shown a NorthWest bias, but so do the other models. Model bias is reported each year in NHC verification reports.

deg/nm bias forecast hour

Model ID 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
GHMI 164/016 156/025 156/034 162/040 171/026 156/072 155/152
HWFI 105/007 086/016 118/021 136/031 174/055 180/149 185/270
I started drinking a coke at 5:00,full of ice, at 9:50 the ice is almost gone.I think the end is nearer than we all think.Maybe the end before midnight.
Quoting hurrkat05:
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..

actually what r u talking about
texas hurricane what i meant and you didnt read down further by slo i meant it will take almost the whole season to get to 13 that's what im talking about slow man...
Quoting hurrkat05:
btktex im very calm im worrying about you guys killing yourselves...i told you guys the dust and westerly shear will do a number on this season...so deal with it ..we will have a few maybe 3 in august september could be a little busier we will just have to wait and see...but guys that predicted 18+ can throw those down the tubes..even 13 i predicted im starting to be concerned we wont get to that...we will see...
POOF
No shortages on monkeys on here eh?
Quoting pipelines:
I'm not going to agree or disagree with Dr. Carver about the likely hood of 90L affecting land, but I am going to question the logic of the basis of his opinion on this subject.

I don't have the information he does concerning what has formed within 1 degree of 90L but I'm going to go out on a limb and make the (pretty safe) assumption that there has been only a handful of tropical cyclones to have passed said location. While averages are usually fairly accurate when pulling from a large data pool, they are grossly inaccurate when pooling from a very small one.

Also, he is going by cyclones that were already formed and designated as such within 1 degree of 90L, there is a huge tracking difference between an ITCZ embedded wave and a formed cyclone at this latitude.

Again, not disagreeing with Dr. Carver, but I just don't see this particular opinion being a valid one due to the data set it is based on having little pertinence to 90L

Awwwww, go ahead and disagree. You make good points. Carver doesn't.
Quoting hurrkat05:
texas hurricane what i meant and you didnt read down further by slo i meant it will take almost the whole season to get to 13 that's what im talking about slow man...


ok, we will see I guess. I'm not taking any guesses as to how many, because I have no clue.
Quoting hurrkat05:
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..


1. Refer to post 400.

2. Your forecast isn't why you're a troll. It's the way you present it. You just go "Ahaha I'm always right this will be slow haha nothing will develop there" You don't provide any reasoning to it. Occasionally you will say "high shear shutting down the tropics" but it is a direct contradiction to the evidence that supports below normal shear throughout the majority of the basin. Just trying to calmly reason with you. If you just ignore it and throw it to the side like usual, then it's hopeless. Although in your eyes it is probably a success, because at that point it's obvious you do this stuff on purpose.
lol he cant even spell names right that means he'll be wrong again
Quoting louisianaboy444:
My Evening Weather Analysis hope you enjoy!

Link


thanks for the update. good future considerations.
Quoting hurrkat05:
tesxas hurricane i predicteed 13 named storms at the beginning of the season that's for from being a slow season so what are you talking about lol..


a joke.
415. SLU
Quoting thelmores:


I typically ignore models which don't initialize in the right location, or right direction..... in this case extrap and the models don't jive.....

But the GFDL and HWRF, and many other dynamic models don't seem to do well at this stage of cyclogenesis........


Got that right.
ok hurricane swirl one more time my reasons why i said a slow season are you listening...
1 SHEAR
2 SAL = DRY AIR...
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Oh this - lol.

7281. MechEngMet 11:36 PM GMT on July 29, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined


Yeah...look how disaterous global warming was for those prehistoric men and animals wh depended on the Bering Land bridge...just hated to see those glaciers retreat I'll bet.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No they are not actually.

It is 1.1 degrees away by using the Pythagorean Theorum and the Distance formula

d = sqrt of (xsub2 - xsub1)^2 + (ysub2 - ysub1)^2

31.3-32.1= -.8
-.8^2=.64

8.2-9.0= -.8
-.8^2=.64

.64 + .64 = 1.28

The square root of 1.28 is 1.13 (doesn't look right, but check yourself, it is)

d=1.13

Well that was a lot to type up over something so minute lol



It's very easy to count the distance between two points that are at the same latitude or longitude, but when they are diagonal from each other you will need to use this to figure out the exact distance between the two points.

Most people probably already know but that was just a quick google search to find nice site for teaching those who are curious.
the W PAC hurricane season is a bust
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..


So you are so Sure of the bust or season that will not produce what so many others have forecast.. (might I add, they have backed their theory with research and blogs with the supporting information) Where is your blog and research that supports your scientific prediction? If you have none then POOF... Make one and I'll read it... I just think you have nothing but the whole 13 year old.... "because I told you so" theory.... I stopped listening to that over 30 years ago when I was promoted to High school from middle school.... So grow a pair and back up your position with some research dude.
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok hurricane swirl one more time my reasons why i said a slow season are you listening...
1 SHEAR
2 SAL = DRY AIR...

GOING AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link

This is a good link...I commonly use this to aid me in my forecasts... Alot of useful links here
Quoting futuremet:
Does anyone have access to the Saharan Air Layer or Aerosol forecasts?


Link
Hurrakat, go away, PLEASE, you are deterring from all of the 90l attention, on here tonight, sigh, :(. LEAVE, forever.
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok hurricane swirl one more time my reasons why i said a slow season are you listening...
1 SHEAR
2 SAL = DRY AIR...


lol are you listening? I just said that's what you do. And that is direct contradiction because

1:


Anomalies are at or below average throughout the atlantic

2. You cannot apply July, the peak of SAL, to the rest of the hurricane season, especially in terms of SAL.

Only reason I'm posting this is for others, because it's obvious there is no hope in reasoning with trolls, and that they just win by getting responses like this out of them.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the W PAC hurricane season is a bust


WAHOO - Thanks TAZ - Am I safe in C PAC?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in other news ice is still melting


Doesnt that happen .. in summer ...every year?
EARTHLYDRAGONFLY APPARENTLY YOU JUST DONT READ MY POSTS ...I WILL SAY THIS FOR THE 4TH TIME TONIGHT THE REASON THE TROPICS ARE DEAD IS THE AAL=DRY AIR THIS DRY AIR HAS SPERAD ALL THE WAY TO FLORIDA...NO SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP THAT WAS EVIDENT WITH BONNIE WHEN SHE WAS SWALLOWED BY DRY AIR...THE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE VERY ACTIVE THIS YEAR BECAUSE I BELIEVE WE ARE IN A NEUTRAL YEAR NOT AND LA NINA ONE...OK THATS WHY I THINK ITS GOING TO BE AND AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON AND LOOK FOR DR GRAY ON AUG 4 TO DROP HIS PREDITION AT LEAST 4 STORMS HE DOESNT WANT TO LOOK LIKE A FOOL...I HOPE THIS ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION..
Quoting hurrkat05:
EARTHLYDRAGONFLY APPARENTLY YOU JUST DONT READ MY POSTS ...I WILL SAY THIS FOR THE 4TH TIME TONIGHT THE REASON THE TROPICS ARE DEAD IS THE AAL=DRY AIR THIS DRY AIR HAS SPERAD ALL THE WAY TO FLORIDA...NO SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP THAT WAS EVIDENT WITH BONNIE WHEN SHE WAS SWALLOWED BY DRY AIR...THE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE VERY ACTIVE THIS YEAR BECAUSE I BELIEVE WE ARE IN A NEUTRAL YEAR NOT AND LA NINA ONE...OK THATS WHY I THINK ITS GOING TO BE AND AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON AND LOOK FOR DR GRAY ON AUG 4 TO DROP HIS PREDITION AT LEAST 4 STORMS HE DOESNT WANT TO LOOK LIKE A FOOL...I HOPE THIS ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION..


Dude I said lets see what you got. Post a blog with some Science... Lets see it...
The heat is building and building in the Atlantic! A TCs job is to release it! 90L isnt going to realease it all by itself and the Pacific isnt going to help much either! There is plenty of show to come this season! This is one thing ive learned on here that is really simple! Im hoping this helps the bloggers that are constantly downcasting this season! Remember---Heat= release =TC
Quoting truecajun:


i know. i'm just joking because so many people have been upset about the GW discussions. i've tried to calm a few really angry ones by reminding them that it's the docs blog adn it's weather related, so we have to deal.

it's just funny because for the past 2 days all they wanted was something to watch and the blog to update. finally it did due to the wave - something to watch. then bam, he ends the update with GW. but you are right, it is weather news, that's why we can't get mad about it. it's still pretty funny though.
I'LL BE BACK TO POST AUG 3RD AND I REALLY DONT THINK CONDITIONS WILL CANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE UNTIL THE 15TH OF AUGUST IT WILL BE DEAD..I WILL TAKE ANOTHE LOOK AT IT ON AUG 3RD ILL HAVE MUCH MORE INFORMATION..UNTIL THYEN YOU GUYS STAT AWAY FROM EACH OTHERE THROAT...
oops. sorry
meant to quote hurricanedancer on 10 in october, not myself. are we really that behind on the numbers?? i mean usually they don't ramp up until right about now, right?
All of the models have it too far north...just watch. Each day the tracks will slowly work their way south. Just like they always do. and the model runs are junk now. Takes about 24 hours for them to get a grip on the situation and even then without a closed low they will still struggle.
BB was pretty worried tonight. He thinks we need to get ready for a bad one in 9-10 days.
Truecajan~ It was kinda funny..