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Interview with the NW Florida Daily News - Part 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:42 PM GMT on June 09, 2006

This is part 4 of an interview I did with the Northwest Florida Daily News of Fort Walton Beach, Florida, that was published on Sunday, May 28. The questions were posed to me by Del Stone Jr., Deputy Managing Editor and self-admitted weather nut. I'll be back to live blogging on June 14.

Q. Our nation's first line of defense against hurricanes is the National Hurricane Center. Is NHC adequately funded for such a role?

A. Things have improved considerably, thanks to some increased funding autorized by Congress in the wake of the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005. The Hurricane Center has been understaffed for a number of years, especially since they were tasked with the additional job of writing all the advisories for Eastern Pacific hurricanes. However, NHC just added four new hurricane forecasters last month, thanks to the a special requisition championed by Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla). NHC now has ten hurricane forecasters, and this will help greatly. NOAA also got money for a new weather research airplane, which will help out our hurricane reconnaissance needs. An additional $1.4 million has been proposed this year to improved buoys in the Atlantic. The only area where not much money was made available was for hurricane research. We need more dollars to fund development of better hurricane intensity forecasts. NOAA's Hurricane Research Division does fantastic work on this, and could probably significantly improve our hurricane intensity forecasts if they were able to add a few new scientists to research this.

Q. When a hurricane strikes, much of the damage is concentrated along the coastline. Obviously this raises questions about the wisdom of building in vulnerable areas, and materials used in such construction. If you could provide guidance to local governments and contractors about those two issues, what would it be?

A. The level of hurricane activity we experienced in the 1970s and 1980s--when most of the recent coastal development happened--was very low. The high levels of activity we've experienced since 1995 are what we can continue to expect for at least the next 10 or 20 years. Planners better get used to the idea of building for more frequent major hurricanes.

Q. Since 1995, hurricane activity "seems" to have increased. I qualify "seems" because the increase strikes me as more subtle than what might be apparent to somebody who is not a student of tropical meteorology. The 2004 and 2005 seasons were noticeably more active, even to a layman. Is this a result of a natural occurrence, the Atlantic decadal cycle, or is it a portent of things to come?

A. There are a lot of conflicting ideas on this among hurricane scientists. The majority view is that most of the increase since 1995 is due to a natural decades-long cycle called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is tied to sea surface temperatures and salinity in the Atlantic (the so-called "thermohaline circulation"). The trouble is, there is little observational support for this theory, as there are very few oceanographic measurements going back in time. In fact, ocean measurements taken in the past few years show a 30% slow down of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, which is the opposite effect one would expect to see if the AMO were truly causing the current upswing in hurricane activity. These measurements had a high potential for error, so more measurements are needed verify this finding. Dr. Kerry Emanuel, who developed much of the theory regarding hurricane intensification, has a new theory on the AMO--he thinks that this observed decades-long observed change in Atlantic hurricane activity is not a natural cycle. The lower levels of hurricane activity and lower SSTs observed from 1970-1995 were due to increased air pollution over the Atlantic reducing the sunlight. Since 1995, pollution control efforts, plus a significant increase in global warming, have acted to warm the oceans and drive increased hurricane activity. Except for the occasional strong El Nino year, he sees no end to the current pattern of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic. I believe it is too early to say who's right. Dr. Emanuel hasn't published his findings yet; Nature magazine rejected his paper as being "too esoteric" for its readers.

Q. Lately a debate has sprung up among meteorologists about global warming and its relationship to hurricane formation. In your blog you have made a point of stressing the jury is still out on such a relationship, if I'm reading your blog correctly. The evidence so far seems inconclusive one way or the other. Do you have a personal opinion about such a relationship?

A. There's no doubt that there is an effect. Hurricanes are heat engines, and heating up the oceans makes stronger hurricanes. However, the amount of heating of the oceans we can blame on global warming, about 1 degree Fahrenheit, should (according to Dr. Emanuel's theory) cause at most a 2-3 mph increase in the winds of a storm like Katrina. Is the theory wrong? That's a question that is being seriously considered, and it is possible that global warming has made the strongest hurricanes much stronger than the theory would suggest. My opinion is that it its too early to tell. The database of global hurricane intensities is deeply flawed and doesn't extend over a long enough period of time to determine if there has been a significant increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes due to global warming.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I would agree Houston, did not mean to make track sound like it was even close to a given at this point.

SJ
Extrap is the extraploation of it's course. Basically shows what direction it is currently moving. Nothing more. It is not a model.

SJ
1003. Levi32
Ok we really have to move to another blog here. Too much even for my DSL lol.
1004. Levi32
Thanks SJ.
1006. RL3AO
My cable can handle the blog, bring it on! LOL!
View the most recent 50 comments with newest first. This is the ONLY way Dr. Master's blogs will work for any of you this season. Expect blogs with over 2000 comments. This is in your best interest.

SJ
ok ty junkie!! however, your the expert not me.. and we (I) take what YOU and several others on here say seriously

no disrespect intended...
1009. RL3AO
If there is an admin here and Dr. Masters doesn't have anymore blogs set up. Make a new one named TD 1 and throw in a sat image. Well take it from there.
Guys, you can choose to show only the last 50 comments(must also choose newest first at the top). It loads much faster with this option enabled.
1011. Levi32
Look at this loop. You can see a vortex center moving SW out of the convection near the Yucatan.
1012. Alec
SJ the view "most recent" thing has never worked for me and doesn't work for some people.....
1013. aquak9
spaghetti for bug (I hope)

1014. Alec
I'm pretty certain Jeff will find out about this depression and make a new blog.....he did so yesterday(or another blog admin did it for him)
1015. Levi32
In the radar loop you can see what might be another center under the convection near the western tip of Cuba.
1016. Levi32
Oops Link
None taken Houston, I totally over looked the fact that I made it sound like track was a given. I am no expert...just a storm junkie. Learn a little more everyday :)

SJ
StormJunkie.com with updated content.
The center is put well west by NHC than of the bulk of the storm. I see why on radar. Cozumel looks fine its on the wrong side of course.
1019. Alec
the "show 50 last comments" thing now works!!!
1020. Alec
models have shifted west!!!
1021. Levi32
Aaron fixed the 50 comments thing just now! Read his blog! Cool!
Hi everyone, for 3rd time. Hope this post goes thru my other ones this morning didn't.. LOL... I posted and didn't realize the site was down again!

Haven't got time to read the approx 750 posts since I signed off last night.

I see we now have TD but has the plane returned yet? I think it will be TS Alberto by end of day do you?

will check back later to see answers!

Gamma
1023. haydn
Choosing newest first up top and then choosing show 50 comments has worked for me. YOu have to click on the newest first link and after the page loads click show 50 comments. If the link won't work when you move the mouse, you are in that setting.

2 centers? These should combine once there is more convection. thety will wrap around the center of the broader circ
1025. IKE
What models have shifted west???
1026. Levi32
53rd what do you think of the exposed center moving SW around the back side of the storm on this loop?
1027. wxgssr
Good Morning and Hello Again All

I'm in Diamondhead MS in Hancock County, MS

I spent quite a bit of time here reading and posting last year...but Katrina kinda reordered priorities for quite a while... : )

Tried to post earlier this am but I guess the site was down.

Anyway...I'm going for a Cat 1 strike at Apalachicola point. Think the shear will loosen a bit as the upper level low in Bay of Campeche continues to drift west, and Alberto(already imo) will track more NW as it parallels latitude of Campeche low...then N then NE into coast as it gains further latitude.

Wish it would come a bit further west as a TS, we could really use the rain here. Way below avg...and there are little wildfires breaking out all of the time.

Have a Good Day...think i might head to P'Cola for soem surf tomorrow afternoon depending on how things progress and develop.
1028. IKE
NAM is a little more aggressive with it...has it hitting central Gulf coast in 60 hours...newest model run.
I AM NEW TO THIS BLOG BUT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING IT FOR THE LAST 2 YRS IT HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN MAY HOBBY OF METER. I JUST HAD IDEA ON ALBERTO TO BE PATH. IT SEEMS A LOT LIKE THE SET UP FOR ELENA IN 85. STORM MOVING N TOWR PENSACOLA THE TROUGH PULLING NE BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IT OUT AND RIDGE REBUILDS AND TAKES IT WNW TRWD UPPER GULF COAST I.E. NW FLA AL OR MISS. JUST AN IDEA I HAD NOT A PREDICTION .
IKE post a quik link to the NAM I am at home.

Levi I am currently looking
1032. MZT
That exposed circulation looks a lot like Zeta did.
HEY NOW! What the hell is up with this. Could 2 seperate systmes form here? I have never seen such a thing.

I would still assume that the weaker Low or Vortex will be absorbed once the convection covers that Yucatan Low.
Levi,

That is the orginal surface low that the NHC pinpointed last night. The mid-level moved too far to away from it a created a new surface low closer to Cuba. That low should die as the other low strengthens.
1036. IKE
NAM link... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/model_s.shtml
Cyclonebuster,

This will not be a devastating blow at all. In fact if it makes landfall in Florida we will get some much needed rain. This will not be higher then a Cat 1 and most likey only a tropical storm.
1038. IKE
It's heading into the Gulf as we type...
The storm isn't lopsided. It just hasn't been able to gather convection and become symmetrical yet due to the land masses to the West of it. Wait until it has a little open water all around it. It will be interestig to see if it strengthens very much in the face of a less than optimal environment in the Gulf.
1040. MZT
Didn't Katrina have 2 or 3 centers as it approached Florida? Multiple centers could be a warning sign that the water is quite warm and capable of supporting very large storms when only one remains.

(Highlander: "There can only be ONE!")
1042. Levi32
Myles, I am sorry it wasn't clear to me which low you said would die as the other strengthens. Could you please clarify?
Actaully the more I look at it it looks as if LEVI found the main Low that had had all of its convection stripped while it was still attached. It appears to be meandering though almost moving South West then south. Which is why I thought it was just a Vortex caught up in the overall circulation
if it starts throwing up convection and it stays over the top this could be the center or (eye) once it is a hurricane
1044. Levi32
The NHC has the official center northeast of the vortex near the Yucatan.

53rd I don't know. I think it more likely that a new center will form closer to the convection. You can see a potential new center near the western tip of Cuba on radar.
MZT,

Katrina had one center. Only developing systems have more then one surface low. Many of surface lows will form when a disturbed area is trying to strengthen into a TD. Thats why many times it takes a long time for a disturbed area to become orgninized, all these weak surface lows are stepping over each other's feet causing disruption.
Levi,

The surface low that you brought up, the one moving SW near the Yucatan, will probably die. Little convection and a new, stronger surface low under the main convection make death almost certain for it..
1048. Levi32
Ok Myles thanks for clarifying. I agree I don't think this is the main center anymore and should die off. I can't imagine that the main center is moving south right now. It looks like a vortex just rotating around wherever the real center is and it should die pretty quick.
1049. dnalia
I hope it heads up to northern Florida. They really need the rain. We don't want it down here (Miami) as a lot of people still have tarps on their roofs.
There's no chance of it coming this way, right?
53rd,

The surface low Levi pointed out WAS the main surface low last night. Since then a new surface low has developed closer to mid-level low and the strong convection near Cuba. This new low is now the main low that has the best chance for development.
1051. Levi32
The mid-level low is right near the western tip of Cuba right?
Levi - Looks like you've had the best read on this thing so far, what's your best guess on path?
Cyclonebuster,

Even if we had your tunnels, we wouldnt need them for this storm! IT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. CAT 1 HURRICANE AT STRONGEST. Shut up about your tunnels.
1054. bappit
Looking at the goes satellite, convection is back building near the tip of Cuba. That could give the appearance of a circulation at the tip of Cuba.
Cyclonebuster...think we could get on down there and build some tunnels by late Monday afternoon?
A good amount of convection is building to the South of the overall circulation.

LEVI you may be right about your vortex being absorbed. Just because it is rotating around the overall circ.

1057. Levi32
GRDRATNAVARRE I havn't had much time to study this but my best guess right now is somewhere near Appolachicola, Florida. I don't think it will recurve into the peninsula, but the exact location is very hard to determine.
Can anyone provide me with a link to the forecast models, NOGAP, etc?
1059. Levi32
I have to go for a while to make a batch of granola everyone. Also I have to update my blog later. Talk with you all later!
1061. RL3AO
lmao cyclone
If the Mid Low(cuba) and the surface low(Yucatan) come near eachother again they will become stacked and we will have a Tropical Storm.

This would already be a TS if there wern't multiple Low pressures.
1063. wxgssr
53rd...don't sweat the vortex...its a micro circ in the grand scheme and will die/get absorbed as others have said.

I looked at the latest NAM run...interesting...we could be in for some much needed rain...and in fact possibly way more than we actually need...as the NAM now stalls it over the coast/lower Mississippi valley. 2-3 inches Good...4-8 bad.
1064. MZT
Myles, that does jibe with what I recollect about how Katrina formed -- the NHC had issued some confusing bulletins on circulations south of the Bahamas, I think even had named one earlier -- then said "the heck with it" and used the K name for what consolidated out of it all, approaching Miami.

(There were snide remarks at the time on this blog about how that was not consistent with Ivan, where the NHC doggedly pinned a name on a circulation.)

Interesting as well that many people in south Florida have said that "TS" Katrina was much messier to experience, than a usual tropical storm.

I think it's plausible that multiple centers may put a lot of kinetic energy into the air. When only one remains, it harnesses all of it, and a large storm grows quickly.

I'm giving the models the most credit right now, and expect a TS or weak Cat1 to land on the gulf coast of Florida. But I'm starting to think deviation, could be more likely to the upside than the downside.
Figures, I move off the coast and the dang things still come looking for me. My bet is she moves inland from api and heads straight for Valdosta, dropping tons of rain and tornados. Getting my lamps, geny and lights ready now. Man I'm tired of doing without AC every couple months in the summer.
Wow look at the new 50 comment pages at the bottom of the blog. Nice WU. Thanks.

Anywho, I think that enough shear will remain around this system to prevent too much intensification prior to landfall, but you can't rule anything out.

Find all the models, imagery and more at StormJunkie.com. Also some nice WU blogger storm video.

Thanks
SJ
You are amazing Cyclonebuster. I really hope your just joking and dont really believe this. Your lack of knowledge about these things pains me.

Anyways, shear is hurting it right now, but it wont get any better once it gets in the gulf. It will being pulled by a trough and troughs cause shear. Another thing about the gulf is that it has extremely dry air. Most likely this storm is going to be a one-side one with most of the convection to the east of the center.
HurricaneMyles...what you said about the low recentering itself more to the east is probably right. The storm seeks symmetry, so it must recenter to the east. But Cuba is to the north and east. It is in the formative stages and running an obstacle course at the same time.
1070. GotSand
WoW! Kudo's to the Canadian Model. What was it, 7 days out, maybe more. Here are a few statements from the last few days regarding the CMC.

HAs anyone seen the canadian model, looks to be showing a TS moving up into the pan handle, nothing on the other models.

Also, have you seen this CMC model loop yet? Michael posted it earlier, it shows a monster low moving into the gulf out of the east Pacific! Right into the high shear though, which doesn't make sense.

Sorry, meant to say the CMC looks fishy to me. I would believe the GFS on that one.

I still dont understand how the CMC is plowing the storm right through the jetstream and maintaining intensity up until landfall. That right there makes me petty skeptical of the whole thing, too.

dont worry, cmc is meaningless. it is designed for canada!

Looks like the nogaps brings it into the Bay, and into eastern Mexico as opposed to the unrealistic CMC.

The CMC is just extreme, and basically seems to be going against logic.

The CMC solution has been noted by NOAA but it is being discounted for now:

The only problem with the CMC and European model is that they have it moving NNE right in the next couple of days. The official forcast takes it west. The 500mb steering levels have shifted in this area to a east to west flow which backs up the official forcast.

Outstanding Weather Team! That will get ya a case of beer.








There are plenty of SST maps on the site Cylcone. The John Hopkins ones in my blog do have a fishy "Frobidden" message that comes up though. The temps are well above 80 in most areas.

SJ
Just marking my spot again on this blog so I will know where I left off in my reading when I return.

Keep the info coming along; enjoying the read.

Gamma
53rd,

The mid-level low around Cuba is not going to get stacked with the old surface low around the Yucatan. The mid-level low will stack with the new surface low that is much closer to it. The old low is just going to spin outta the picture.
The center of TD one is right in the middle of the Yucatan channel. I do not see it reforming anywhere, but that is just my take on it.

SJ

StormJunkie.com
1075. wxgssr
GOMEX water temps and features analysis

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graphic.pl/metoc/40/19/0-0-5/0
I think the GIANT ridge of high pressure over most of TX and southern OK will be a key player in determining which direction this thing goes.... in theory the further north and east that giant "H" moves.. the further north and west it allow the "L" to go...
My money is still on Pensacola for the slow moving blob, perhaps minimal hurricane. Reasoning being, advection from the Caribbean taking more of an active role in steering as the ridge in the northern gulf weakens.

The surface pressures are still way too high around this thing with no notable exceptions occurring yet.

Stormjunkie - yea in the middle but little more east??!
Got Sand Great Post.

Nothing but amature expertise.
1079. snowboy
Yeah GotSand, let's hear it for the Canadian model! As a Canadian myself I'm having a patriotic moment here - could we all rise and sing Oh Canada please? LOL.

Actually, the praise should be going to Levi32, who has called this thing from many days out despite a lot of negative comments from more experienced WU folks who should know better.
1080. GotSand
Nice JFLORIDA, that should pretty much finish off my fence.

Navarre
1081. GotSand
I'm singing, Im singing
1082. wxgssr
Houstonian I agree that the high over the lower plains will have influence...but the latest NAM run has the West Lant ridge building W into the eastern Gulf, the plains ridge blocking Alberto from moving WNW toward Texas coast, and a Trof over the Great Lakes and Northeast extending into the Ohio valley all steering Alberto to the Central Gulf coast.

Gonna be an interesting weekend.
ooooooooohhhhhh Caaaaanaaaaddaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!
Hmm..very interesting. I took a very good look at the visable sat loop and realized that this 'old' surface low that we see exposed from the clouds moving SW near Cozumel, well, I dont think its from yesterday at all. That surface low has moved SW from the Yucatan Channel, which is where NHC, and SJ estimated the new low to be. I question whether TD1 really has a surface low under all the convection somewhere or if the low we are all seing was that surface low.
Before 2005, would this be front page news on cnn.com? lol
1087. code1
Gotsand, just got my fence put back up yesterday. Dennis damaged it and it sloooowly fell down. I'm ready! Bring on da rain. P'Cola here and only wishing for large rain event.
1088. GotSand
Kudo's Levi32. Promote!
1089. snowboy
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...21.5 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
Snowboy, we still dont know here this is going!..LOL I wouldnt be singing yet. Did you read the latest discussion!..LOL Have a good day!
LOL @ cyclonebuster.
1092. IKE
Visible loop...appears to be moving NNW. Lopsided TD.
All of Florida will start receiving rain from TD01 starting today in Miami up to Orlando. Continuing through tuesday. The westerlies will put most of the moisture from outflow to the east.
1094. MZT
GotSand, I was thinking about making a post a lot like yours... People give the CMC grief on it's tracking ability, but you gotta give the Canucks their due on spotting the formation.

In fact, I think this storm quit appearing in their analysis for a day or so -- there may have been some reprogramming going on, to suppress what seemed like an eggagerated forecast... And it still came back into the picture.
To me TD1 looks to be getting less organized with time. Check out the area just off the coast of Belize. There appears to be an attempt to form yet another center down there. Basically what we now have is a very elongated low sitting from the western tip of Cuba down to the area off the coast of Belize, with at least three vortices set up along this low/trough. As far as I'm concerned this thing barely even qualifies as a depression. It is EXTREMELY disorganized.
WOW!

Alberto looking very good this morning!

1098. IKE
New GFS is coming in...
1099. IKE
Curtains for NO again??? A bit premature.

i totally agree hawkeye like i said last night this will have a vey hard time getting to 40-45mph winds ..its mostly a rain event foe someone....
GotSand Sister got a house year and a half ago at Santa Rosa Sound. Because it cant happen again - Albatross!!! Major damage twice already!
1102. wxgssr
The S/SW flow in the Mid/Upper levels SE of the Bay of Campeche upper low is inhibiting convection from wrapping around the NW quadrant of TD01.

If the upper low continues drifting W...this SW flow should relax allowing better wrapping around the core of TD01.

I like to use the vapor loops to get a handle on what is occuring in the synoptic scale atmosphere.

Back again, placing another market on this blog...

good reading. when will the plane come back with results?
What happened to STORMTOP NWS... LOL
Ok ya'll, keep an eye on our little TD. I will be in and out for the next couple of days, but please stop by the blog from time to time and if you have any feedback on the StormJunkie.com update then please let me know. I will be doing a litlle vacationing at the beach with the family, looks like we could be a little rained out at the beginning of next week.

Thanks all
SJ
1106. IKE
ST...it should make it to a TS...maybe a strong one. I agree...mostly a rain event. Hopefully it won't stall at the coast.
Hit 23inches in 24 hours here in cayman according to the NHC report, time for some swimmng
no need to with this hurricane survivor it looks very disorganized like i said it would be all along conditoins are horrible for this to really develop....just my thinking though lol....
Hey good morning everyone looks like we awake abroad a TD that was very expectable from everyone here...well except ST of course LOL!
ike possibly another JUAN lol
MZT...that's how it was with Katrina. I remember the NHC kept insisting that Katrina formed from a new depression off the Bahamas but really they just stuck the name on it after something re-developed from that mess.
I agree that these systems can be very unusual and unpredictable after emerging from the slop like that!
Very good point.
the high pressure is actually forcast to move and is moving NE (more over OK) and then dropping back down to the S putting the center of the high pressure more over Arkansas.. ...this ridge is huge ... and if the "H" does what it's forecast to do i'll go out on a limb and say that LA will get very little if any of it..
1114. code1
Thanks for no caps this year ST! Now, if we could just get others to not post a sentence, then a double space. Not every sentence is a paragraph guys, 101 English. Was on dial up for a couple months while away from home. Trust me folks, for those unfortunate folks still with dial up, it does make a difference in their ability to download.
who said la was going to get anything to begin with lol
1116. Levi32
Good morning stormtop. Where are you thinking landfall for this storm?
levi right now until isee more organization with it it could go just about anywhere...
The Low currently in the Bay of Camp was what the "other" models were picking up on. This Low should help with the dry air problem. As I don't think that the dry air so many are woried about will not be a big factor. I don't think ANYONE not the NHC not the NOAA not the NAVY not the Weather channel not me or you. Has any idea right this minuet (this will change today as we get an actuall SINGLE center.

Now the multiple voritcies and the Low that moved over the Yucatan last night into the Bay did throw a monkey wrench in my plans. I still think Alberto will organize and build to a CAT 1 minimal once it gets into some more open space.
ummmmmmm Stormtop....cyclonebuster .... but thanks for asking....


Posted By: cyclonebuster at 3:39 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
Yep NNW will remain all the way to NO. Sorry the upper level to the west will keep its path true.Unless that low reliquishes its hold on the storm its curtains for NO again.


Posted By: cyclonebuster at 3:31 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
wxgssr at 3:23 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
GOMEX water temps and features analysis

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graphic.pl/metoc/40/19/0-0-5/0

Thanks! Looks to be around 83 to 84 degrees in the loop current. Plug this into Kerry Emanuals formula. What do we get with no shear?

Also,there is a upper level low to the west of this thing and this will make the the storm move more Northward into NO.

1120. Levi32
Stormtop I agree it could go anywhere in the eastern gulf. I want to see it clear Cuba and get a single center going. Once that happens, we will see what this thing is made of.
i disagree houustonian there is no way it will make a direct hit on new orleans..this will noyt come close to here...
yes levi it has some hostile conditions to fight before we can say its going somewhere...
The 12z GFS is interesting... Seems to be stalling out under the panhandle of Florida.
stormtop -- you should really scroll up... I WAS POSTING CYCLONE BUSTERS COMMENTS in direct response to your saying "who said la was going to get anything to begin with lol"..you posted this comment rgith after i explained why i did not think LA was going to get any of this...
1126. Levi32
I still don't know whether the shear everybody's talking about is the outflow of the system or not. There really isn't that much shear there, and it drops off near the Florida panhandle.
1127. MZT
I have to agree with most here, that the complexity of what is going on plus proximity to western Cuba abd the Yucutan will limit development this weekend.

Alberto needs room to swing his arms around. The Gulf or the Atlantic will be the place for that.
sorry houston i just wanted to make it crystal clear new orleans was not going to get a direct hit from whatever this thing end up to be...
i tend to agree.. and i explained why... but im not sure that anything is crystal at this point...
I think cyclonebuster is "All over It"
OK OK All new prediction just in.

Alberto will form into a TS tonight into tomorrow morning while pretty much stationary. It will move slowly north untill it gets just north of Cuba and then will disapate over a 72hour time frame. Yes stationary just north of Cuba. Then dissappear. Poof!
yes its very disorganized and i wouldnt be surprised if the recon downgrades it back to a tropical wave this afternoon if this keeps up
1136. MZT
Nope. A strong Bermuda High will shoot storms up the east coast, when they form near Florida. Storms are steered father into the Gulf based on where the toughs and highs are...
53rd its moving at 12mph thats a good screeching halt ...i cant see that happening but i agree with you on it going poof
IMHO, it looks to me like it has reorganized just SW of the Isle of Youth, and I wouldn't doubt it will reach TS status by tonight. However, with a center farther east it will be trekking over the high mountains of Cuba, which will hinder its development for at least a day.
1140. GPTGUY
how much farther east savannah? because western cuba is a flat terrain, central and eastern cuba have the mountains
The Sierra de los Organos is a range in the Matanzas province on the western end of the island.
i agree fla boy
1145. IKE
Key West has 24 mph winds..gusting to 34...

Just looks like a lopsided TD moving NNW to me.
Multiple vortices are present in the system, as many have pointed out already. The exposed low near the Yucatan is one of several associated with the system.
yes ike but its main convection has been seperated from the center which has moved sw...its either going to form a new center or fall apart...recon plane may downgrade it to a tropicl wave later today...
i too noticed the exposed vortice....

its really weird when you see this happen, i know i have heard explanations of this, but don't remember.....

wish there was a way we can see all the low level cloud circulation below the upper/mid level stuff.....
To me the center looks far southwest of the isle of youth and is far south-southeast of Cancun. The huge MCS like flareup is NE of the center and is shearing out in that direction rather fast. You can see new cloud tops filling in the center on the water vapor loop.



1151. MZT
Well I need to do *something* today besides read this blog... But I would say I'm partial to the GFS and GFDL solutions.

First, because they are generally good models and have consistently been handling this as an east coast storm, for the last several runs.

Second, just personal observation for the last few decades... that storms that form just southwest of Florida "tend to" get sucked northeast, and then ride up the coast. It is just a common solution.
thats how the tropics are in june now if this was august you would have a completely different scenario here...
The tropical depression 1 right now does seem a little unorganized at this time, but as time goes on today and tomorrow it will clear the northwestern Caribbean Sea and strengthen possibly past category two status. If the next front does leave the depression alone we could be faced with another major hurricane. Just an idea nothing to do with my predictions at this time. Especially after last year I don't know what will happen, but time will tell us all.
yes i said yesterday that was a huge high for this time of year..its hard to develop anything with all this dry air aloft....
Just another check in to see what is happening . still no word from the recon flight????
Faethe.. there is no consensus.. models are taking this thing all over the gulf.. no models are in agreement and very little agreement here ;-))
i think i read the recon flight does not go out until 330pm Eastern time....is that correct?
i just hope it doesnt turn into another juan we dont need that...it doesnt have to be s tropical storm to produceflooding rains and the weaker it is if it holds together will tend to move it on a more nw course then ne..
It's that time of the year. I look forward to reading and learning from all. I do not see much coming out this system. Definitely a rain event. Maybe this will get the attention of those who have not already prepared themselves. Those in Fl should have taken advantage of the sales tax holiday. If nothing else they could have gotten themselves a sales tax free cooler for their beer. Anyway greetings to all and I look forward to an informative friendly blog.
Yeah i agree with the others I see TD 1 dissapating away by days end. I think it would be generous to even downgrade it as a wave it was a close one.
1164. wxgssr
Quickscat pass

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_0.html

Note the small vortice is showing up to the SW of the main circ.

Do not get hyped over the 50 kt flags ENE of the main center, rain has a tendency to pollute the data
There is alot of movement on the Water Vapor loop it looks like a boiling cauldron down there. When the primary center does take over I believe it will squeeze thru the channel and avoid the Yucatan and Cuba.

1166. Levi32
NEW BLOG UP!!!
from what I was told I think they'll reach the TD at 2pm Est
Ok guys, here is what is going on right now. TD1 remains very disorganized. There is an elongated surface low/trough extending from the west tip of Cuba to a point just off the coast of Chetumal, Mexico(southeastmost point in the Yucatan). All morning we have been watching the original TD1 center vortex move southwest away from the convection. Now a new vortex at the southern end of the surface trough appears to be getting better organized with a lot of deep convection blowing up around it. This new vortex may continue to strengthen a bit and ride northward along the trough, a bit like a yoyo spinning at the end of a string moving back upward. If this happens, the old vortex spinning southwestward will continue moving south and will likely be absorbed into the newly organizing vortex. The whole thing really is a mess and a lot of time will be needed for it to consolidate into a single focused system, if it ever does.
In Houston .. a rain event is all it takes for mass hysteria.. remember TS Allison..blew through here.. and then got pushed back south and stalled right over Houston for about 3 days... that was biblical rain and caused much much more damage than a direct hit from (cat 3)hurricane alicia...
12Z GFS HAS IT STALLING OUT UNDER PANHANDLE LINK PLEASE? IF THIS IS TRUE MY 85 ELANA SENRIOMAY COME TRUE THROUGH BRING IT NORTH THEN NE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE IT OUT THEN IT STALLS THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND SENDS WNW OR NW FOR LANDFALL ON NORTH GC
1171. Levi32
NEW THREAD UP! The other meteorologists from WU filled in for Dr. Masters.
1173. ShawnX
Even the NHC says that TD is going to get ripped to shreds by the wely shear. If it's lucky it might be a TS but I'm still unwilling to bend in that direction. TD to hit Florida pan handle then rapidly transform into a extratropical low carried quickly along the welys.
1174. snowboy
excerpt from latest NHC update:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...DEPRESSION DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: hurricanechaser at 4:41 AM GMT on June 10, 2006.

In my own personal opinion, I see three different attitudes on here.

There are most here who do fortunately symbolize respect for another's best guess and disagrees with it if applicable with respect with no need to belittle the others best effort.

However, there are those here who act as if this is a competition to be the first to predict such and such will occur and if so, wants everyone to know they called it first and pat themselves on the back for it while mocking those who choose not to be so aggressive with their forecasts so early on.

In contrast, there are even others who do the opposite and criticize those who make such predictions well ahead of time but do so not for the competition or to say hey look what I have done but just simply for the enjoyment of monitoring the tropics minute by minute and they should not be mocked for that either in my personal opinion for no one can say that their predictions so early on will not ultimately materialize in time.