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Interview with the NW Florida Daily News - Part 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2006

This is part 2 of an interview I did with the Nothwest Florida Daily News of Fort Walton Beach, Florida, that was published on Sunday, May 28. The questions were posed to me by Del Stone Jr., Deputy Managing Editor and self-admitted weather nut. I'll be back to live blogging on June 14.

Q. Your bio indicates you faced a life-threatening situation while flying into Hurricane Hugo. Would you care to elaborate?

A. We were the first plane to intercept Hugo out near Barbados, and we elected to fly in at 1500 feet, expecting it to be a Category 3 storm (based on satellite estimates). Hugo turned out to be a Category 5, and nearly killed us. We hit 190 mph winds and 5.6 g's of acceleration in the eyewall (the wings are supposed to tear off at 6 g's), and had an engine catch on fire. The pilot lost control of the airplane, and we plummeted to 800 feet above the water before the pilot was able to regain control and extinguish the engine fire as we popped into the eye. Of course, our troubles weren't over then. We were in the eye of a Category 5 hurricane, had only three engines working, and needed to get through the eyewall again to escape. It's quite a story, and I have a long account posted on the tropical page of our web site, complete with photos I took in the eye.

Q. The evacuation for Hurricane Opal in 1995 was a debacle, with thousands of people stranded on highways as the hurricane struck. Afterwards, the National Hurricane Center seemed to revise its standards for evacuation, urging people to run from the water, hide from the wind. Assuming you agree with that assessment, how would you advise people in hurricane-prone areas to handle the question of evacuation?

A. If you have the flexibility, it is good to leave on your own a day before a likely evacuation order is issued. If I lived in the Keys, I would be out of there at the first hint of something serious that might move through. It takes a full 72 hours to evacuate Keys, I would be out of there at the first hint of something serious that might move through. It takes a full 72 hours to evacuate the Keys, and hurricanes like Rita and Wilma that intensify from tropical storm strength to Category 5 in about a day don't give us enough time to evacuate this highly vulnerable region.

In general, if you are still at home when the evacuation order is given, and live in a low-lying area at high risk of a storm surge, get out. Even if the highways are clogged, your chances of survival are still better than being on the coast. But as we saw during the evacuation of Houston during Hurricane Rita, and in Florida during Opal of 1995, evacuating from the wind doesn't always make sense. In fact, some estimates put the death toll from the evacuation due to Hurricane Rita at over 150 people, 23 of them when a bus carrying 45 nursing home evacuees erupted into flames and exploded on Interstate 45. Not counting Katrina, that's a higher death toll than any hurricane since Camille of 1969 (256 deaths). So, I think we need to think hard about evacuating the very sick and elderly from the wind. But, I've heard from a lot of people who've had bad experiences trying to ride out a hurricane in an evacuation zone. The mantra I've heard so many times, is, "I'll never ignore another evacuation order!" Your best bet is to always heed the evacuation order.

Q. Many people have become critical of media coverage of hurricanes. Television clips of correspondents standing in high winds as debris flies about have become commonplace. Do you feel this approach sensationalizes storm coverage? Do you believe it sets a bad example for viewers, encouraging them to do the same? What about be concentrated coverage from weather-exclusive entities like The Weather Channel? Does such coverage skew context, giving viewers an unrealistic picture of a storm's threat?

A. I don't believe a significant number of viewers will seek to go out in a hurricane in imitation of what they see TV reporters doing. However, hurricanes coverage is too sensationalized and over-hyped for my liking. Hurricane have become entertainment. One of these days, a reporter is going to get seriously injured by flying debris. I've championed on my blog the idea of having reporters doing their show from a safe place out of the wind, and sending wind-up toys out into wind to be blown away for dramatic effect. TV stations can make a creative and dramatic demonstration of the wind's power without endangering the lives of reporters.

Hurricanes are sensational enough in their own right, and do not need dramatization. My philosophy is to simply report from my own deep knowledge and understanding of these great storms, and not try to generate more hype in an effort to drive up ratings. In contrast, Accuweather's recent press release that the Northeast U.S. might be the target of a major hurricane this season was an excessively sensational."The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," the article said. Language like this is effective in scaring people and driving up ratings, but is not an effective way of warning people in the Northeast of the true risks they face this year. Everyone living on the Atlantic Ocean is at risk, every year.

To be continued...

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Accuweather's recent press release that the Northeast U.S. might be the target of a major hurricane this season was an excessively sensational."

Best quote EVER. Nicely said Dr. Masters.
Hey Jedkins, Alec, and Newt,

I couldn't agree more for those are and have been my sentiments all along.

Just think that any relatively short range 5 day forecast when an actual storm does exist and the other weather systems that control its eventual movement are also visible as well still carries a large 300 mile forecast error by the very best in the business (the NHC).

This is very large for any coastline much less trying to accurately determine where an East coast storm may make a landfall if at all, which is by far the most difficult to predict naturally due to recurvature.

That is why I stated earlier that there is practically zero skill in such a long range forecasts and climatology is the only real tool that offers any idea for a best educated GUESS which is all it is and the same really applies to even a 5 day forecast as well regarding it also being the equivalent of a best educated Guess where some real skill does actually exist.

I wish I had more time but I really need to go spend some time with my little girl.

Before I go, I want to thank Fredwx and all of you here who I had a chance to talk with for your time and input.:)

I hope each of you and everyone else has a great day.:)

Most sincerely,

p.s. Hey WSI and bamaweatherwatcher, just want to say "hi" and say I hope you too have a great day.
what do you think about the probability of this one being the first? Link
Yep, the whole Northeast target issue is just another hype to sell whatever...geography and storm tracking patterns making a direct hit on the NE is improbable at best...I'm not excluding a glancing blow along the coast which has happened in the past or the remains of a storm coming north out of the gulf causing storms and flooding in the northeast...but to try and predict a cat 3, 4 or 5 hitting somewhere above Virginia is some far-out thinking.
Hey Jughead and Michael,

I just caught your questions before I was signing off and thought I would respond vewry quickly before I go.:)

This is why I personally see very little chance of tropical storm development for at least the next 7 days and probably much later that in my humble opinion.

I hope you and everyone has a great day.:)

Most sincerely,

Wind Shear Map
Tony's right. There's no indication of any formation for quite some time. We may all go crazy waiting for something to form over the next weeks...
Dr. Masters now has brought up a great point about accuweather.com. Now that I heard this from a tropical cyclone expert, to come to think about this, he is right that this is not the best way to warn people of the risk of a hurricane landfall. Over-hyping a situation is very dangerous and people might not even take it to seriously. Accuweather.com is trying to advertise for a company to get viewers to look at the ads. I now agree with you guys about Joe Bastardi, but he is a very intelligent person, just overhypes everything. I do agree though that our threat of a hurricane landfall is well above average now then it has been. He is right about the fact of the cycle within a cycle and the water temperatures in the NW Atlantic Ocean. We'll just see though if he's right this year. Any thoughts about my blog I posted earlier today?
Is it my imagination or has every recent model run that shows some possibility of development in the Caribbean, have it headed towards Cayman?? Hopefully they are just trying to justify their statement that we are the area most likely to be hit.lol.
New Post in my blog.

Also for those not in the know I am trying to put together a friendly contest for hurricane predictions and hurricane triva.

Lastly once the first storm comes I might start my Friday Wacky Questions again.
Posted By: JugheadFL at 12:29 PM CDT on June 05, 2006.
what do you think about the probability of this one being the first?

wow i saw that last night but it wasn't to that extent
14. WSI
JB is paid to bring in viewers NA. Hype brings viewers in some circumstances. In my case, it turned me away. He is obviously smart, but as long as he keeps over-cooking the forecasts, it will all be ignored by me. Plenty of other reliable forecasters that can keep the hype turned down, and the objectivity turned up. Not to mention Accuweather trying to shut the NWS out, even though WE pay them to bring the services to us. It all centers around the almighty dollar unfortunately.

weathercore.com is coming along well. Redesigned many of the pages over the weekend. Drop in if you want links, or to view the tropical page.
15. IKE
The NAM is aggressive with that low in the caribbean out to 84 hours...more then the GFS.
I have just received a Davis vantage pro2 weather station fot my birthday and would like anyone here familiar to comment on pros and cons. Thanks in advance.--Caymanite.
That's some great evacuation advice about the keys. When they have a bad one blow up close by & move over them, it will be bad. Talked to some locals down there about 6 months ago. With storms threating left & right, evacuating, coming home in time to leave for the next, well many in the service industries as well as others just can't afford it or got tired of it & took to staying.

Deciding on landfall areas while nothing is even brewing is like throwing a dart with your eyes closed at a small map. These things can't be forecasted out with any accuracy. You can point out areas who's time is statistically beyond up, but it doesn't warrant even a mention. All coast is at risk, each season.
some convection is starting to fill in on the east side of the carribean swirl as shear lessens
To anyone,

Is the Bermuda High a low level feature or a high level feature?

I took a quick peek at the GFS and noticed a monster high(albeit at sea level) out in the Atlantic. Just wondering if this is the so called "Bermuda High". If not, what model or feature would show it.

Thanks for any reply.
it's a surface feature. upper highs exist where the storms form.
Thanks RW,

So I am seeing the Bermuda High on the GFS model. It's huge. Am I missing anything?
Hey take a look at what the ETA model has in the northwest Caribbean in 84 hours. Link
Hey Levi!
Rich!!! Where in heaven and earth have you been!
Well right now I'm in Bedford, England. I have been there since May 25th. If you read my blog then you'll see that I won't be back until June 16th :( I haven't seen you in ages!!! How are you?
hey : atmosweather get back overe her LOL how it going

hey Levi32 whats is that link showing you?
Oh sorry I havn't seen your blog at the top of the list so I havn't read it thinking you still havn't updated it. I am doing great over here thanks how about yourself? What are you doing over in England? I suppose spring is just getting on there as well. The weather there is probably about the same as it has been here, temps in the 60s and a mix of sun, clouds, and showers.
David!!! This is a miracle: You're handle hasn't changed LOL!!! How are you?
David see the low in the northwest Caribbean? That came from the current disturbance in that area. It is still an area to watch very closely for the next week or so.
: atmosweather doing well how mean week has it been with out doing a new id
Oh yeah Michael I saw that incredible low there. It still shows up on the 12z but it only goes out to 72 hours. The GFS has that same low develop in the Pacific but then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico instead of the Caribbean. Also that disturbance in the northwest Caribbean has to be watched...
I'm doing great Levi, thanks. I'm in England visiting my family (I was born there and all of our family is still there, so we visit every summer). The first week we saw some of the worst late spring weather in decades. For 3 days we didn't get out of the low 50s!!! However, on Saturday and Sunday highs reached 77 degrees (10 degrees above average) with unbroken sunshine, and today has been the same except only 71. We're stuck in a very nice settled pattern with temperatures pushing 80 degrees by the end of the week!!
Looks like something could be cooking Michael.

Have a good one.

Levi32 is that from td 2 E moveing in to the gulf?
Could someone be kind enough to just give me a quick update on the tropics in both oceans in the last 2 weeks? And current sea surface temperatures, wind shear, Bermuda High? Thanks :)
That's great Rich! I'm glad the weather has cleared out for you! We pushed 80 degrees at my house the same week you had lo 50s lol! It was crazy here! Point Mackenzie north of Anchorage almost burned to the ground due to a forest fire that blew from a tenth of an acre to more than 500 acres in less then an hour!! It has been sooo dry here. This summer is going to be another very bad fire season. We had a sprinkle a couple days ago and the temps have been kept in check, but in a week and a half we should be back in the dry hot pattern again.

Note: I recorded 77.8 degrees at my house last week. Last summer, the highest temperature I recorded was 78.2, which was a record! Talk about a hot May!
02E is a 20kt remnant low
swla, you're not missing anything. there is pretty much always a big high in the mid-latitudes over the atlantic. It's responsible for the trade winds, for steering hurricanes, for pumping heat and humidity into the US...lots of things.
Wow Levi! I hope the hot weather continues but also that you get some much needed rain. Does anyone know how the drought situation is like now back in Florida?
In the past two weeks, there was a tropical storm (Aletta) and a depression in the East Pacific; the depression has just dissipated.
atmosweather well the sea temps are going nuts in thelast few week with a lot of 90 in teh keys and from time to time some sea temps around 91
Two storms I missed? Oh man this is why I hate going away in the summer...sorry that I wasn't there to offer anything :( Did either affect land? How soon is Alberto likely to come?
90 in the Keys?!?!? Wow that's very scary!
Sure Rich, in brief, a disturbance nearly became a depression on Sunday, but has since died off to a low swirl in the northest Carib. It should be watched closely though, because the previously high shear over it last week is now deminishing, and convection is starting to pop again around it. Also I mentioned the NAM(ETA) model developing it in 3 days.

In the Pacific, tropical storm Aletta formed last week quite close to the Mexican coast, but eventually moving off to the west and dissipating after dumping heavy rain on the coast of Mexico. On Saturday, Tropical depression 2E formed and moved onshore near Acalpulco, Mexico about 12 hours after formation and dumped more rain on the area.

The SSTs are skyrocketing in the Gulf of Mexico. Some bouys are reporting an unbelievable 91 degrees F in places! The Caribbean is up to 85 degrees F in most places.

The sub-tropical jet continues to weaken, and shear will not be high for long.

I hope that covers everything you want to know Rich.
: atmosweather yes there are 90s in the keys and low 90s for sea temps
Here is one of the buoys in the Keys; also look at the graph of water temperatures.
Atmosphere both had an effect on southern Mexico
Man Michael that worries me a lot. I've just seen the sea temperatures in the Gulf and I nearly fell out of my chair. Let's pray that a storm gets in there soon to cool the water otherwise the Gulf Coast is in trouble later in the season.
,: Levi32 he ask about the Bermuda High too
RE NE Major Hurricane Strike

This years risk of an intense hurricane in the NE significanly higher than normal. This year the risk is estimated to be less than 2% (hardly under the gun!). The average annual risk is under 0.7%, however.

See United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project and click on the Landfall probability Table

Thanks for the summary Levi, and for the link Michael :)

Ok Hades. Sorry that I couldn't get on here to help :(
Oh right thanks David. The Bermuda High still isn't quite formed yet, but the main upper high has been hanging out somewhere northeast of Puerto Rico.
: atmosweather why are sea temps so high any one thinking of a 870mb storm in the gulf this year
Thanks Levi. NE of Puerto Rico? God that's not good at all, we need it to move east.
Based on William Gray's forecast

I don't know about his forecasts, but I know that what he says about thermohaline circulation and hurricane activity is incorrect (he says that stronger circulation = more storms; in reality, it is weakening).
David, the sea temperatures in the Gulf are very warm this year because the southern US has experienced a warmer than average winter and spring, leading to more heat and sunlight over the Gulf waters.
I know those SSTs could support a major Cat 5 in the gulf again this year. This map shows practically everywhere above 28 degrees C!
870 mb in the Gulf? I think that the NW Caribbean is more likely to have such a storm.
I know we may have a slow start to this season, but when it does start, it will be off and kicking in a hurry!
Levi32 somewhere northeast of Puerto Rico whats dos that mean usa land fall may be the gulf in for it is FL in for it what

I'm really worried about this year Levi, I was worried last year a couple of weeks before Katrina because of the temperatures but this year its even worse. Do you feel we could be in for it this August?
Why do you think that Michael? The Loop Current is in the gulf, and that is where both Katrina and Rita bombed out.
We definately could Rich it is very scary to say the least. The slow start to this year is allowing the SSTs to grow hotter unchecked by storms to cool them down. August....I don't want to think about it!!
Remember that Rita (895 mb) was the most intense Gulf storm and Wilma (882 mb) was the most intense in the Caribbean; also, the three most intense storms all formed in the Caribbean.
Levi32 did you see my last post am i looking at that right wow 90s in the gulf
Can someone link me the GFS model or the ETA model showing this Caribbean disturbance? Do you guys feel that this has a good chance of developing (I don't have access to any satellite images or cyclone phase diagrams or anything so I don't know what it looks like or what the environment is like)?
By the way, the SST anamolies are warming over the entire Atlantic. Not many areas of below normal anymore. Looking more and more like last year. Yikes! I don't know why the gulf isn't shown warmer then that though. Link
"The Bermuda High still isn't quite formed yet"


It's out there, but right now it's well east of Bermuda.

Check out "Atlantic pressure/windfield analysis" on WU's tropical page. It shows the High.

That map is showing El Nino signals!!! Is this possible??
Sorry David so many posts at once lol. If the Bermuda high stays near Puerto Rico's latitude, more storms will be directed toward Florida and the gulf, which is very bad news indeed.

Michael you have a point, but I think the potential for such a storm will be the same in the gulf and the Caribbean this year.
atmosweather ok all think how mean cat 5 you think well see this year that will have a 882 or lower mb?
Yes Rich it is possible, and it is looking frighteningly similar to last year's SST pattern.

Rwdobson, it depends on whether a person is talking about the surface high, or the 500mb high. I was talking about the 500mb high. I am not sure which one is counted as the Bermuda High.
its a FL year hthis year
IF the Gulf keeps warming like last year AND IF the Caribbean stays hot AND IF few storms enter the Gulf before August, the 882 mb will be broken. I expect at least 1 Category 5 this year.
Speaking of last year, the anomalies were very high during April and May (2-3 C); however, the dropped so that by September, they were only about 1 - 1.5 C above normal. Link (you can clearly see where Katrina passed over the Gulf)
The Bermuda High is a surface high, so only the 1000 mb level counts.
Bermuda high is the surface high. Its the one that steers hurricanes.
Rich during the entries for the season forecasts I put down 2-3 Cat 5s! We had them last year, no reason why we shouldn't this year with the way things are going. Scary!

Michael yes I see that. Hard to tell if the same thing will transpire this year though.
Ok thanks for clarifying about the Bermuda High. It's still good to look at the upper levels for steering though.
My gut feeling (which is very random) was right last year, and this year it tells me 4-5 Cat 5s, but I can't actually predict that because there are so many variables that need to be perfectly in place for a Cat 5 to form.
Yes Levi, the upper levels are very useful especially with stronger storms.
Here Rich in this map you can see the trough in the northwest Caribbean.
Well Rich, Wilma sure defied the "perfect conditions neccessary" theory lol!
Now you're really scaring me Rich lol! If you were right last year, then your gut feeling must be genuine lol. I hope you are wrong.
Thanks Levi. I would be able to make a better forecast if I had all of the mid and upper level data and forecasts, but since I don't, I'll just use that map and the wind shear map I just found. It looks to me that the shear is trying to lower in the NW Caribbean, so I think that the disturbance has a slight chance of becoming TD 1.
Here are Atlantic satellite images - notice that Floater 1 is over the Caribbean; it was moved there even before Tropical Depression 2E dissipated.
Well if the Sea Surface Temperatures are untouched in the western Atlantic until August the start of the heart of the season couldn't we be seeing very warm temperatures up here also in the Northwest Atlantic. COuld this also mean a category three or larger form to, from the Gulf Stream, which comes from the Gulf of Mexico also.
NHC still saying upper level conditions unfavorable for development. Gonna be saying that for a while, probably.
LOL Levi Wilma was a special case. I'll get round to doing some research about that unnatural storm sometime because it defied many physical laws. My gut has been spot on for 2 years about what type of storms would strike but I have been way off other years.
Any poker players?? Predicting storms is very similar to trying to predict what cards will fall next. The odds of a particular card falling do not mean much when your trying to apply the odds for just ONE hand but, over a lifetime of poker (predicting storms) the odds will be as close to exact as we can get. Weather prediction, just like poker is an imperfect system and trying to predict where any ONE storm will go or how strong it will get is almost a crap shoot (no pun intended)!!
storm floater 3 photo with a storm in the midwest =/
That's pretty much my thinking as well Rich. In this GFS model loop, you can see the mischief in the east Pacific. The moisture from that region will be advecting into the Yucatan Peninsula region, which could help fuel the development of that disturbance.

Also, have you seen this CMC model loop yet? Michael posted it earlier, it shows a monster low moving into the gulf out of the east Pacific! Right into the high shear though, which doesn't make sense.
how small was her eye
Levi, neither does the 4th ace falling on the river two times in a row.. doesnt mean it WON'T / or CAN'T happen...
Yes I want to study Wilma more closely as well. She was a very weird storm.

Well Rich if your gut has been right 2 years then that is pretty good lol. They are not always right, but when you can learn how to control them so to speak, then they can be exactly right sometimes!
Joe Bastardi is a fool. It's very simple to devine his forecast. Once a TD forms, and even if the various models are all over the place....just pick the spot that would cause the greatest catastrophe...and that's where Joey is going to predict as the path. As far as jounalism goes, he makes Geraldo Rivera look like Walter Cronkite. As far as meteorology goes he makes ST look like Dr. Gray.
Thanks Michael. It looks very impressive for a disturbance under so much shear.
Houstonian there are so many posts right now I am not sure what your last comment was reffering to? Please clarify for me.
Houstonian, I am an avid poker player. You must have been very annoyed or overjoyed to see the case ace 2 rivers in a row!!!
Right into the high shear though, which doesn't make sense.

Levi, neither does the 4th ace falling on the river two times in a row.. doesnt mean it WON'T / or CAN'T happen... :-))

let me put it like this atmos.... i hollered some choice words ..lol
Cosmic, Joe doesn't always do that, and his forecasts are very acurate most of the time. His reasoning is also superb. His landfall forecasts last year just happened to fall near New Orleans, just like the NHC, the Rio Grande River, also forecasted by the NHC, and Port Arther, Texas, once again forecasted by the NHC.
LOL then try and think about losing a 200 dollar pot to a runner runner straight flush beating my boat that I flopped!!!
hopefully atmos -- you didnt allow him to catch his str8 flush cheaply
I didn't say that Houstonian, it is true it doesn't make sense to forecast a hurricane right into the sub-tropical jet, but after last year anything can happen.
We were all in before the flop!!!
AccuWeather correctly forecast Katrina???

This was posted in the previous blog
One more thing Houstonian: I don't know how to play poker lol!!! How can you give me an analogy from a game I don't know and expect me to understand it lol!
I'll put it this way Levi: the odds of what Houstonian said happening is 1 in 2100.
Michael remember Accuweather is made up of many forecasters. They got the forecast wrong but Joe Bastardi didn't if I recall correctly. He does not have the ultimate say in the official Accuweather forecast. He has his own opinion, but the forecast of all the other meteorologists at Accuweather is sometimes much different. The point is that the mets at Accuweather are learning, but Joe is one of the best mets in the nation, and he is very very good, even if the rest of Accuweather is not.
True, I don't know why he said that lol! Does he really expect me to say that it could happen? Lol it could, but I am not going to say that after only one insignificant model run lol!
Hey Atmos~ glad to see ya stick your head in:) I still got the FL Fire blog going. Lotta fires over the weekend, followed by a slow Monday (the ussual). Last few days recap~Got one near 10,000 acres in the everglades, fire pushed into the outskirts of Daytona Beach, had one down the road from me...lol-the state is still burnin.

It's you that's always getting hit by canes, right? I don't know if it's good or bad having ya gone...we need a wet TD to get many of these out. You should stay in Fl til say September~ when the majors ussually hit.
LOL don't worry about it Levi :)

OK everyone I have to go since its 11pm here! It was great talking with you! I'll try and get back on tomorrow or Wednesday to look at the disturbance again.

Have a great night!
Check this out, while we are on the subject of Bastardi, this is what he said this afternoon:

"Get ready... western Caribbean to start getting loaded up. Gulf free this week, but Caribbean problems should propagate into Gulf next week."

He's right, the Caribbean is going to load up this week I have seen it too on the models.
Farewell Rich have a great night! Have a wonderful rest of your trip I hope to talk with you soon!
Hey skyepony, hope you are well!

Good night everyone!
Evening every one. Just in case ya'll have not seen. I updated the sst maps in my blog. The Gulf looks much hotter then it did on the 14th of last year. Both maps are posted here. Let me know what ya'll think.

levi, (not to be rude) but you do know how to read right?? cmon levi.. my 8 year old could understand my analogy... long shot in weather.. long shot in poker and the implied odds are VERY similar
Levi, you sound a perfect candidate for my next game.

The new CMC is no longer showing that storm forming, think it was just seeing if anyone is awake.
That is a good point Levi32. I didn't think about that. Yah, John Kocet is the one that does those graphics not Mr. Bastardi. He is a very intelligent person in this area of work. Thank you for reminding me about that one. Tazmania is that Wilma you are referring to with the siz of the eye? I believe it was 2 nautical miles.
NO levi YOU are on the burnt out subject of bastadri...
Yep the gulf looks really hot! By the way your site looks great SJ! Keep it up!
Oops, that's supposed be "size" or "siz"
Cregnebaa - the 12z CMC runs only go out 72 hours, instead of 144, which means that we have to wait for the 00z run.
Houstonian I don't have time to stay and talk but number one, I already said I don't know poker, number two I don't know why that point of "it could happen" was even nesseccary, and number three, the subject of Bastardi is not burnt out he is better then most of you him out to be. Number four, not to seem rude myself, but I CAN READ THANK YOU VERY MUCH! No need for insults please.
Any comments on the Gulf Stream being as hot it is right now compared to normal. The eddy south of Cape Cod seems pretty serious in transporting that very warm water up here. one question about this: How does the water circulate off that eddy: clockwise or counter-clockwise? Please tell me the answer if anyone knows the answer. Not trying to be cocky.
Also, the 12z does show the low forming in the east Pacific and starting to move north at 72 hours.
I have to go for a while everyone. Nice talking with you all! I will be back later this evening.
WOAH easy there big guy ... you started it by saying you DID NOT say something you definately did.. and questioning my analogy that was getting more attention than yourself at the time ...... and I dont care if you never played one hand of poker in your life.. apply the analogy to anything thats uncertain in the short term and becomes more clear over time... how can you say you didnt say this??

"Also, have you seen this CMC model loop yet? Michael posted it earlier, it shows a monster low moving into the gulf out of the east Pacific! Right into the high shear though, which doesn't make sense."..

all im saying is unlikely things happen in weather ALL the time.. it snowed here on christmas eve 3 years ago.. and 4 aces feel on the river 2 times in a row last friday night... geezz.... like talking to my 8 year old as well
I think Bastardi must be Levi's Dad. I am convinced of this!..LOL
dunno weatherguy... he seems dense.. for lack of a better word...
I don't have time for this Houstonian and Bob I don't know why on earth this is an issue. All I said was that it didn't make sense for that forecasted hurricane to be moving right under the sub-tropical jet. Of course it COULD happen I didn't say it wouldn't or would. Also it is hard to understand an analogy if it is about poker and I know nothing about poker.

Like I said I don't know why this petty thing is an issue. I am sure your 8-year-old son is much smarter then me by far.
Gosh am I suddenly as bad as Stormtop or someone like that? You guys take off on the weirdest things sometimes. Bob I just said a kind word on Bastardi's behalf which I have only done once before that does not make me his ultimate defender ok?
Many of the bloggers on here don't want AccuWeather mentioned; I even got emails from some of them a while ago telling me not to mention anything that they say (it was when I said that they showed a tropical storm hitting South Carolina on June 3; they did not explicitly say why I should not mention them).
well i did have to literally s-p-e-l-l it out for you.. why??? i have no clue... everyone else seemed to understand completely.. i never wanted you to say that IT would happen(thats ridiculous for you to even think that i did) i was just useing what you said to make my analogy more complete :-)).. and then you denyed ever saying it ... LOL geez what a clusterfugg...
I never denied anything that I said Houstonian. I am sorry I didn't get your analogy right away your comment was perfectly acceptable, you are the one making this an issue, I don't have a problem with your original comment, but I do have a problem with what you have been saying to me for the last 20 minutes!

Michael I don't understand either. Please help me you know I don't do this.
well ... you keep saying you dont have time.. and you keep making time... lets drop this. I'll agree w/ you it is silly and I apolgize if I offended you. However, I was just giving you back what I percieved you to be dishing out.
And Houstonian, just because a fellow has a brain glitch and doesn't understand something right away doesn't make him dumb! I tell you who cares if I didn't catch what you said right away tell me that!
anybody know why the cmc model only shows 72 hours out for the 12z run?
I'm sorry too that this happened let's forget about it now. I just happened to find some more time to stay on so I did that's why I am still here.

P.S. If you don't already know I am only 14 years old and might have some trouble understanding an analogy using poker ok? I hope this is all clear now.
142. Alec
Was a scorcher today here in Tallahassee! I dont believe anything in the distant future is worth worrying about(in terms of tropical cyclone formation).....conditions are just not condusive for development ad the shear has been persistent in the Gulf....
143. Alec
Red Sox - Yankees 7:05pm catch you all later.
Ya wanna know why Michael? Because Accuweather is a hype machine! Anybody in the field of meteorology knows this, including alot of my collegues. And this also includes our very own Dr. Masters.

All I know about poker and hurricanes is that the dates and where and category now seem to be a major source of online betting... that's about as close a reference as I know... LOL and I'M 53 yrs old... so probably older than MOST of you bloggers. SO THERE!!!

The problem with Bastardi and Accuweather vs. NHCC or WU is that they are a FOR-PROFIT org vs. not-for-profit. They MUST sensationalize all they put out to keep up the ratings.
We'll see what we get when things start percolating wherever they start percolating so far as tropical weather goes. It does what it wants as it always has and until there is something actually brewing all this guess-timating is only so much sophisticated hooey!!!
(apologies to the scientists who try to look long-term, but do we REALLY know who's going to get hit by what?)
Hi all. Just had to butt in, Accuweather is a comercial venture like all news/weather nowdays. Just have to deal with it. On another note, I posted about interoperability of communications systems a week or so ago, guess what, Mayor of Los Angeles commented on Fox that they needed the 81 million dollars from the HLS to do just that. I just don't get it, you can get a 10 network system for $20K, don't believe me, run a google on radio interoperability device and see what you get. Man beurocrats drive me nuts.
148. Alec
Exactly cgables! No one REALLY knows months in advance who's going to get hit better yet it's hard making 5-day forecasts all that accurate!
oh i know whats going to happen.... i have a crystal ball...lol
Yes, but Bastardi knows!..LOL
not anymore...i stole his crystal ball..now i will tell storms where to go
I am getting tired of hearing about Accuweather (whether it is defending, or slamming them).

Obviously you all find Accuweather to be very important. Otherwise, I can't imagine why you would find the need to argue about it.
153. Alec
louastu, I was ONLY referencing the fact that long range forecasting is very difficult/nearly impossible.....I didn't even say anything about accweather....
I never even look at their site..LOL Only have to catch a glipse of that idiot on TV every now and then..LOL Sorry to bring it up again, but Michael wanted to know why. Now I am done..LOL
Accuweather, weather channel, even weather underground, all try to make money. They just have different strategies of doing so. Different people respond to different methods, thats why all are successful to a certain extint.
I believe some people like to think a bad storm is coming their way, just so they can't worry about it. People are wierd, some really like to worry.
When I said "you all", I was talking to the people who are talking about Accuweather. If you were not talking about Accuweather, then I was not talking about you.
Obviously nobody here likes accuweather that much compared to weather underground. If they did they probably wouldnt have even found this blog. But accuweather is weather related ofcourse so people are always going to bring it up on here.
Personally, I think you all need to write your rep. and senator. If you feel so strong about it, that's the way it works here (USA). Blasting away on the blog lets off steam but, really doesn't accomplish anything. My prediction for this year, It's gonna be bad for somebody, alot of sombodies. I just hope we do better this year than last (recovery). I'll do my part and you do yours. Dr. Masters, keep on doing what you're doing, you been better than most. Best of luck to all and let's hope for fish storms, I just like the massive power and beauty of a symetrical storm on the visible sat.
159. Alec
Posted By: louastu at 11:19 PM GMT on June 05, 2006.
I am getting tired of hearing about Accuweather (whether it is defending, or slamming them).

Obviously you all find Accuweather to be very important

I was just wondering because I thought you meant me as well as indicated....done....I'm outta here!LOL Have a great afternoon guys!:)
GRDRAT: i agree they are awsome to look at...as long as they aren't heading straight towards land.

on another note the GFS has that same low that the CMC has going into the gulf, except it has it paralleling the pacific coast of central america. Which one to believe?
Personally, I think you all need to write your rep. and senator. If you feel so strong about it, that's the way it works here (USA).

Bama. Neither. That looks very fishy to me.
Sorry, meant to say the CMC looks fishy to me. I would believe the GFS on that one.

I am sorry if I caused confusion. I guess I should have been a little more clear as to who I was talking about.
Weatherguy - Never know till you try. Oh! important point, friends and familly, it multiplies, if you can get them to do it. We all have our favorite weather guys/gals. If NWS dries up where will they go? Put it to them in that prespective.
166. Inyo
Does anyone else think that the high shear over the gulf just causes it to warm faster and may actually lead to worse hurricanes later? I am not sure if it works that way... but I do know that out here in California, we haven't had an earthquake for a long time and it seems that the longer between them, the more severe they are... since there is a set amount of energy which must be released. The only real way out for the energy in the Gulf is thru the gulf stream or thru hurricanes.

also i wouldnt call it El Nino yet but La Nina is beyond dead now.

as for accu-weather, I havent followed their hurricane forecasts but their California winter storm forecasting is pretty abysmal. So is TWC for that matter, more than a couple of days out. They have these 10 day forecasts.. but how they work is if it hasnt rained in a while they don't show rain, if its been rainy they show rain out there. thats it. You can't predict temperatures with any accuracy especially in summer due to the variable inversion, anyway.

speaking of such things, looks like we may get some more early monsoonal storms in our mountains.
Oh ok GRD..LOL I thought you were talking about something else..LOL Man, I worked too hard today, I am lost! I hear what you are saying! Sorry..LOL
Inyo - As far as earthquakes go, it's not about time and energy it's about synergy in the fault lines. If one goes it lets off enrgy in another, or builds energy in another. Man, this is chaos theory at it's best.
hey, bama!!! can I borrow that crystal ball??? I wanna win the Lotto!!! ::G::
That's the Azores high out there. The terminology is a bit vague (and why not?), but I tend to think of the Bermuda as a summer time extension of it that sometimes keeps on extending over the eastern US.

"Look how big the Bermuda high is this year!"
"Yeah, but the Azores high is bigger."

"Look how big the Bermuda high is this year!"

whats dos that mean
In school I had to use the word in a sentence after I spelled it, so I made up a story. Not a very good story. In fact not much of a story at all.
Actually the Azores high is usually stronger than the Bermuda when there are separate cells.
239 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006



175. IKE
"Check this out, while we are on the subject of Bastardi, this is what he said this afternoon:

"Get ready... western Caribbean to start getting loaded up. Gulf free this week, but Caribbean problems should propagate into Gulf next week."

Bastardi is usually right about things like the above. He's off at times on where storms will hit, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
hey bob like you to do me a favor i respect your knowledge and have grown to like you
but remember how annoying lefty and stormtop were and all the complaining about chaser and his baby?
well leave the accupro comments out and i promise i want hammer on that idiot mayfield anymore or masters what a horrible name for that fellow lol
dont want to start a controversy just respectful request i went to far on jokefield after katrina due to all the meess we had in south ms.talk about something else quit bashing before i
name you righty 06 lol you till the man god bless billy
177. WSI
Shear would have to slacken up a lot first IKE. Just not conducive for development at all.

AVN Shear Forecast
until end of the week. Granted, that doesn't go into next week, but just shows the shear has a long ways to drop first.

Even going into the weekend, its high according to the models.

More tropical weather links are on my site at weathercore.com, including an updated tropical page.
NAtlanticCyclone- you were asking about a gulf stream swirl by Cap Cod. This is a map that shows current speed, on the horizonal plan & if you make it large you can see arrows denoting the direction.
179. IKE
True about the shear. Should lessen a lot by next week according to the GFS long range. It would have to sit in the Caribbean for awhile.
sure cgables!!! just dont let bastardi know you have it! he might go to extreme measures to get it back..
181. WSI
"he might go to extreme measures to get it back.."

Ok Billy! Love ya too!..LOL I just dont see the shear lessening in the Gulf next week. Maybe by the end of next week. Definately need to keep a watch on that area, if it wasnt for the shear we would have a TS by now. But with this upper trough pattern we are in for the Eastern US, its gonna be hard.
Ocean Vortex of Death!

A MASSIVE ocean vortex discovered off the West Australian coast...
deadly vortex? those crazy australians first the boomerang, now this, what will they think of next!!! LOL! night all!
i dont like the look of this one bit :(

186. cjnew
lol turtle.

thats funny! it looks like the models is predicting a developing storm!!!!lol

how many days out is it???

maybe it'll get interesting. in the next week or too. I dont know! lol
that one was just about 3 days
188. cjnew
Thanks turtle!
The new 00z CMC run shows a major(?) hurricane hitting Louisiana. Has it gone crazy?

The shear animation shows it punching through the subtropical jet.
hehe... Yeah, The model has gone Mad.
I certainly hope that a hurricane doesn't hit Louisiana, though a tropical depression might do them some good (as long as it doesn't dump too much rain), as I believe they are in a drought right now.
Umm, If that ("Hurricane") Pushed the subtropical jetstream north like it shows in the shear animation could it possibly stay north, allowing other storms to more easily form?
I think that a lot of the shear that surrounds it (notice that there is a small area of low shear right over the center of the low) is from outflow; notice the anticyclonic circulation (arrows) in the animation surrounding it.
What altitude is the 200-850 mb level at?
I am not sure what the altitudes are, but when they say 850-200 mb shear or whatever, they mean the difference in wind speed and direction between those levels, so that it is not just one level being shown, but a range.

Do you know if it is is typically upper-level, mid-level, or low-level?

I know it is late, and I am asking a lot of questions, but I need to know.

Thanks in advance.

I'm guess the 97W 10N convection is the storm that fits with that model
louasta according to the cmc we here in La coast would be dealing with a cat 1, or cat 2 hurricane at most at landfall...
Hey everyone,

I only have time for a couple quick posts and only caught up on the last "50 comments" seemingly centered around Accuweather, the NHC, and long range forecasting in general.

I have to be completely honest and say I am not all that familar with Accuweathers predictions and their particular forecast accuracy and am by no means trying to critisize them.

This is only my own personal opinion, I simply have no preferences over the NHC in both ability and their approach to operational forecasting (Their post storm analysis on Katrina I question as you all know too well is quite a different story).

Specifically, I personally appreciate their conservatism in that they are careful to continually emphasize how inexact tropical cyclone forecasts truly are.

Case in point, in NOAA's extended long range seasonal forecast they reiterated the simple fact that none of us really know which areas, if any, will be hit by a major hurricane this season.

For example, no one (certainly not me) would've expected the U.S. to go four seasons in a row (2000-2003) without even one major hurricane landfall based upon an early June prediction during each of those seasons with the notable exception of 2002's inhibiting El Nino.

I will also add that only one minimal category three (Bret in 1999) made a U.S. landfall in the 7 year period between 1997-2003 while the first nine seasons of this very active AMO cycle (1995-2003) only saw a grand total of 3 major landfalls in the U.S.

Now, compare that to the past two seasons that saw 3 major landfalls in 2004 and a record 4 in 2005 respectively.

The 1995 season was hyperactive as well with a very active Cape Verde season where the Carribean Islands were consistently pounded that year which generally should have meant big problems for the U.S. East Coast.

However, the Bermuda High was displaced to the east due to persistent troughiness along the Eastern seaboard in effect acting as a goal keeper and pushing them each out to sea.

In short, there is no real skill in actually predicting whether this particular active season (as I suspect it will be) will translate into multiple hurricane landfalls and major hurricane strikes much less where they will actually come ashore when they do.

The only real skill if you can call it that one can use is simply reviewing climatology and making a best educated GUESS taking into consideration the current atmospheric set-up as well as the best analog years that hint to what possibly could happen which is all my own personal seasonal forecast is predicated upon.

In summary, I believe Alec and cgables summed it up pretty well as reiterated in this comment by Alec.

Posted By: Alec at 11:20 PM GMT on June 05, 2006.

"Exactly cgables! No one REALLY knows months in advance who's going to get hit better yet it's hard making 5-day forecasts all that accurate!"

I will reiterate something I wrote in my blog about three blogs back on this very subject, the 5 day forecast error is 300 miles by the very best in the business (the NHC) at a time a storm actually does exist as well as all the other weather systems being visible to the forecasters that wil ultimately detyermine exactly where a particular storm will end up.

With that in mind, how can anyone of us forecast where a storm will come ashore months in advance.


On the other hand, I don't want to discount the importance of climatology for it does have genuine value and there really are identifiable patterns that give us an idea what one particular season or period may possibly produce.

In general, climatology has shown that there are periods where the Gulf coast gets hit multiple times before such a concentration of storms coming ashore shifts to along the Florida East coast before switching to a pattern that leads to multiple landfalls in the Carolina's and Northeast as a consequence.

I assume that this is what Accuweather is basing their Northeast U.S. increased vulnerability forecasts upon.

My main concern with Accuweather is that I personally feel it is much wiser to take NOAA's approach in the seasonal outlook warning that all areas are at increased risk than singling out specific areas as low risk for example.

In other words, I personally believe that by over hyping a certain area as high risk that it can in turn build complacency for those that are not in that designated region which is an unnecessary consequence in my humble opinion.

In contrast, if they would simply state that they expect the Northeast U.S. to also be at an increased risk during this active phase of the AMO cycle than has occurred recently for that particular region of the country, this would be very useful in actually helping to defend against such unwarranted complacency.

Otherwise, I don't have a problem with anyone including Accuweather making their own best educated GUESS as to what they think could happen during a given season when done so in such a responsible manner.

In closing, I don't personally disagree necessarily with the prospects of their general message (an increased risk to the Northeast U.S.) but in the manner by which it is seemingly being disseminated as I understand it.

I hope everyone has a great night and good day tomorrow.:)

Most sincerely,

202. Inyo
wow that CMC was really weird, hopefully it is wrong
Hey bappit,

Posted By: bappit at 12:51 AM GMT on June 06, 2006.

That's the Azores high out there. The terminology is a bit vague (and why not?), but I tend to think of the Bermuda as a summer time extension of it that sometimes keeps on extending over the eastern US.

"Look how big the Bermuda high is this year!"
"Yeah, but the Azores high is bigger."

This is a misunderstanding of the Bermuda High that another blogger was also trying to state not too long ago as well and I hope you don't mind if I set the record straight respectfully.

In response to your post on the Bermuda/Azores High, it is one and the same High pressure area where is generally referred to as the Bermuda High when it is closer to that Island during the summer months and the Azores High when it is closer to those Islands during the winter months for example.

It is true that it can separate into two separate cells but it is not that common and it generally remains as one entity known as both the Bermuda and Azores High.

Here is the definition directly from the same source as I too learned in school and I am concerned some will be confused into believing ther ate not one in the same which they are.

Bermuda highThe semipermanent subtropical high of the North Atlantic Ocean, so named especially when it is located in the western part of the ocean.

This same high, when displaced toward the eastern part of the Atlantic, is known as the Azores high.

On mean charts of sea level pressure, this high is a principal center of action. Warm and humid conditions prevail over the eastern United States, particularly in summer, when the Bermuda high is well developed and extends westward.

I hope you and everyone else has a great day tomorrow.:)

Most sincerely,

Bermuda High and Azores High are same
Off to school catch you all later.
Hi everyone. First time posting, long time lurking. I have a question that I really haven't heard anyone talk about. After the huge earthquake in Indonesia in December 2003, it's been said that it actually knocked the earth out of it's axis. How does this affect the Atlantic hurricane season and could this be playing a part in the hyperactive seasons we have been seeing since 2004? I am no weather expert by any means, but this event seemed to increase the the number of these land falling storms.
Sorry, was a year off. Earthquake was in December 2004. Could the 2005 season have been affected by the axis shift of the Earth?
The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge is currently displaced north and east of it's normal location. If fact it just barely reaches Bermuda on its western edge.

has any one looked at the morning run on the CMC? Looks like 3 days out near Beliize we have a depression forming that heads straight towards NOLA. Just looking for the boards take not a fear monger. Thanks in advance.
209. IKE
The NAM has been picking up on that system for a couple of days...

Could it be Alberto????
Hey StormReady,

I had time to post real quick before I head off to work and thought I would respond to your very fascinating question.

I am by no means very knowledgeable relative to earthquakes and I would imagine you will get many different responses to your question.

That being said, I do know my fair share about hurricanes so I can respond on that basis and from having worked professionally as a weather forecaster as well.

First, all the recent U.S. landfalls in both the past two seasons are not as unusual as one might think at first glance from a historical perspective and should be expected given the current phase of the natural climate cycle know as the AMO which has the greatest influence on overall Atlantic Basin atmospheric conditions over a period of decades at a time.

This multidecadal cycle has two rather distinct alternating phases know as the cool and warm phases respectively.

The cool phase is consistent with less favorable atmospheric conditions that are not as conducive to tropical cyclone formation such as below normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin for example that only produced an average of 8-9 named storms per season during the most recent cool phase that ran from 1970-1994.

In contrast, the warm phase also know as the active phase is just that for it is consistent with very favorable atmospheric conditions and very conducive to tropical cyclone formation with above normal sea surface temperatures resulting from this decades long atmospheric pattern change.

As a result, the warm phase of the AMO cycle has averaged well above the normal 10-11 named storms per season since 1944.

With this marked increase in storms by itself, it naturally coincides with more prospective landfalls and this correlation has shown to be the case and most pronounced relative to major hurricanes.

This being an understandable consequence and expectation given the comparative disparities in sea surface temperatures between these two contrasting phases that supplies the necessary heat potential to invigorate these storms.

IKE, looks like leftovers that other models have moving up the pacific coast yet this one grabs the shear and reemerges.
Did anybody catch Fox News this morning. They were talking with Bastardi about using economic models to forecast hurricanes! They were talking about "futures" on where a hurricane would hit, and trading them like on the stock market. Now is that wild or what!
To keep this short, we entered a new active or warm phase of the AMO cycle in 1995 and have since averaged 15-16 named storms per season along with the expected significant increase in the number of major hurricanes compared with the inactive or cool phase that preceded it as mentioned above where there were comparatively few major storms that crossed the U.S. coastlines, with only 10 total during this 25 year period.

This stands in stark contrast to the 10 major U.S. hurricane landfalls that have taken place during the past 11 years corresponding with the transition to the active phase of the AMO with 7 of these 10 making landfall just in the past two seasons alone.

What is most important of all to remember about hurricane landfalls is that they are dictated by the upper level steering flow in the atmosphere and simply move in concert with the direction in which these currents of air take them.

With that in mind, the most significant steering mechanism for these storms is a large weather system known as the Bermuda High and its centralized location and intensity at a given time dictates where a particular storm will ultimately end up.

The large number of landfalling major hurricanes during the past two seasons are both representative of the warm/active phase of the AMO cycle producing more and intense storms in combination with the displacement and strength of the Bermuda High which has not allowed these storms to recurve out to to sea (which is their natural tendency) but prolonged such recurvature until they had already moved far enough westward that when they did so, a U.S. landfall was no longer avoidable.

In short, these are the two huge climatological factors they have resulted in all the recent major hurricane landfalls.

Unfortunately, there is no way to know just yet where the Bermuda High will direct these storms this early in the season nor for future seasons to come.

However, we do know that the current active phase of the AMO cycle should remain in place for at least another 15-30 years meaning that there will continue to be a greater potential of more landfalling storms depending upon the exact location of the all important Bermuda High and its effects on a given storm.

Simply put, I personally don't believe that the earthquake had any effect on last seasons incredible activity but was the direct result of the aforementioned factors.

Regardless, it is an excellent question nonetheless and one that is most certainly very thought provoking.

My response just simply constitutes my own personal opinion on the subject relative to the increased hurricane landfalls while admittedly having very little of earthquakes themselves.

I hope you and everyone else has a great day.:)

Most sincerely,

Left out a word in my previous post.:)

My response just simply constitutes my own personal opinion on the subject relative to the increased hurricane landfalls while admittedly having very little knowledge of earthquakes themselves.
215. gcain
Concerning the earthquake and the earth's axis...if I recall correctly, there was some immediate speculation that the earth on its axis might be effected, but those fears were soon discredited and the consensus was that it would take an event much, much larger than one earthquake to actually change the earth's orientation to the sun...afterall, think about all the earthquakes the earth has dealt with other the many millions of years. While a large earthquake is nothing to dismiss, the earth can handle these isolated events with no large scale effect...or we probably wouldn't be here now. How big of a "bang" would it take to knock us off our axis?? Good question?? Even during the cold war there was speculation that an all-out nuclear war from both sides might have such an effect...thank God we never found out...
hurricanechaser is correct. The current AMO warm phase is likely to continue to produce active seasons. This is not good news for Florida since it is much more likely to have a major hurricane landfall during the warm phase than during the cool phase. I posted on this back in April.

Major Hurricane Risk to Florida
Thanks Hurricane. This is a question I have been thinking about since the crazy 2005 season and Zeta forming in January. That maybe the abnormal warm air temps this spring and water temps the past 2 years could be a direct result of the planets axis changing, making us in fact closer to the sun. Just food for thought I guess.

Hope it's wrong. It's the only model, thus far, that is showing that system and how the heck would it punch through that much shear?

Fingers crossed here in SW La. We could certainly use some rain but not that way.
Real quick question.

Bermuda high is a surface feature and everyone has commneted on it's ability to route tropical systems. Does this mean that surface features have the biggest impact on hurricane routing or are there times when upper level conditions dictate where a system will go?

220. WSI
"biggest impact on hurricane routing or are there times when upper level conditions dictate where a system will go?"

Depends on the size of the storm. The larger the storm, the deeper the steering layer will be for it. This link has a graphic that explains it...

Steering Layer

Deeper meaning "taller". Extremely powerful storms are steered more from upper level winds, while lower ones can be somewhat influenced by lower level features (850-700mb level). That is my understanding of it.
221. WSI
"Lower ones" above means less powerful storms. Sorry for the poor word choice.
222. IKE
swlaaggiee said.."It's the only model, thus far, that is showing that system and how the heck would it punch through that much shear?"....

The NAM is too. At least out to 84 hours. Good question about the shear. It is forecast to lessen in the gulf over the next 3 days. If it does develop, it could be one of those slow, prolonged processes.
if the earth's axis had changed significantly, we'd know, because we are measuring incoming solar radiation all over the place. if there was any change it was so small that it is drowned out by other things that cause the amount of sunlight to vary (solar cycles, annual changes in distance from sun to earth, etc.)
wtg Jeff- AccuWeather exaggerates way to much!

Unfortunately, I don't have a link to find the NAM model but everyone references it. I'm a newbie to this but learning a lot very quickly. Do you have a link? It would be most appreciated.

Thanks WSI.

how small was her eye?

About two miles in diameter.
227. IKE
Here's a link....http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/model_s.shtml

Copy and paste.
Looking at the Gulf right now, dominated by dry air and high pressure...I can't see anything heading towards the US Gulf coast, even if it did form. Which it probably wont.
229. WSI
swlaaggie, I have a lot of tropical links in my link directory at weathercore.com. Click on link directory on the left, then click on the tropical section. Also have some more weather models under the model section.
Got some decent t-storms in the KC area last night. 65 mph gusts and lots of lightning. Some light damage to trees and some power out. We also got an inch of rain in about an hour.

Describe what that stuff(rain, thunder, lightning) is. I've forgotten. Geez, it's dry down here in Sw La. I turn on the sprinkler and it looks like Mututal of Omaha's Wild Kingdom around here. Birds, rabbits, turtles, etc. come to drink and play. I think they have forgotten too.
look guys i dont mind you looking at models and making your predictions according to the models...all i ask is until you are absolutely sure and the NHC has begun issuing advisories not to get people excited that a cat 2 hurricane is coming here... believe me there is nothing coming to new orleans in the next 2 weeks im sure of that...one of you make a statement new orleans is going to be hit by a cat 2 and my phone starts to light up and i have been very busy over the past few days and i dont need the erroneous statements thats being made here.... new orleans has put up with to much to have people wanting to evacuate already when there is absolutely nothing out there..you guys talk about bastardi well you are no better then him..i realize you are kids and you want to learn as much as you can and i salute you for that...but guys you are creating to much hysteria by saying a cat 2 hurricane will hit new orleans in the next 84 hours..its not right to do this to the people here..especially when they have nothing out there..so please have some patience and dont go blurting statements like that out because the computer says so...like i said you guys have at least 10 days before you might think about getting a tropical depression the shear is just to high right now...so tone it down guys i would appreciate it and it would cut down on my phone calls i get all hours of the day.....StormTop
ST, do people really call you based on what they read in blogs?

Although I agree with you that there is no way something is headed up towards nola in the near future.
SWla, it's been dry here too. This was the first time we've had 1" in a single day since...maybe since last june.
235. WSI
"ST, do people really call you based on what they read in blogs?"

Please don't feed the bears, LOL! ST's phone statement was a blatant call for attention. ST is just trying to make himself look important.
236. IKE
"so tone it down guys i would appreciate it and it would cut down on my phone calls i get all hours of the day.....StormTop".....

You should realize, as smart as you are, how to avoid that....


If you're gonna get phone calls EVERY TIME a computer model has a storm heading for the gulf coast over the next 6 months and you can't handle it, it's gonna be a looooong summer/fall.
yes dobson they do lots of my friends monitor the things you guys say from the entire gulfcoast..all im asking is you guys keep the tone down until something does develop and we are sure where this is going to go ..some guys already have a cat 2 coming to new orleans and thats a flat out lie...all they are causing is mass hysteria some already want to leave the city again...you just need to be resposible in what you say until we have a system and the NHC starts to issue advisories...DONT SCARE THE PEOPLE....StormTop
As a consultant, I need clients like that...ringing my phone off the hook over nothing...

of course in today's modern world, not many phones have hooks to ring off of anymore.
Ha Ha!! I love ya ST! Too funny! Wow, this sounds like the new ST this season. Very conservative. What happen? Are you turning over a new leaf?..LOL
BTW ST., people are allowed to give there opinions on here before something forms. Did you forget, you had the people on the Gulf coast on standby a few weekends ago for your Tropical Storm that was coming..LOL
Yes, I believe that is it.
243. IKE
Per ST...."..all they are causing is mass hysteria some already want to leave the city again...".....

You're the pro...calm their fears.
ike i cant take my phone off the hook i need it for important calls that i need to recieve another thing that goes crazy when you guys say crazy things like this is my fax machine..i got almost 100 faxes in a 36 hour period because of this thing about new orleans was going to be hit by a cat 2 in 84 hours..you guys are incredible making erroneous statements like that..their are lots of people here with heart trouble already dont tell them to leave unless its absolutely necessary..we have been through to much with katrina to have to worry about another storm so soon.......StormTop
Check out this system the GFS comes up with. Probably extratropical Nor'easter if anything, but it does move over warm Gulfstream waters for awhile.
Both the UKMET and the NOGAPS pick up on that same East Coast storm as well.
247. IKE
".we have been through to much with katrina to have to worry about another storm so soon.......StormTop"....

No one has any control over that. If it happens, it happens. They'll be more storms. Just a fact of life. Hopefully it won't happen.
100 faxes in a 36 hour period, all of them offering hot stock tips on penny stocks...lol.

seriously, ST, you're right on this one that the models are pretty wacky...but come on...
I am trying to find where anyone said that New Orleans will get hit.
scroll up loustau and you will see it....
251. IKE
per energyguy..."has any one looked at the morning run on the CMC? Looks like 3 days out near Beliize we have a depression forming that heads straight towards NOLA. Just looking for the boards take not a fear monger. Thanks in advance."....

He's just talking about ONE model and asking for opinions on it. This is a tropical weather BLOG and that's what were suppose to be on here for.....jeez....
ST, Do you opperate from your mother's basement? You still havent actually told us What office you run in. I'm curious... Please Tell!

ike im talking about the statement GET REAL MADE ABOUT A CAT 2 HITTING new orleans...cant you people scroll uop and read?
ST enough of this garbage. You are the one that always used to talk about stuff hitting the Gulf. Please..LOL 100 faxes!..Ha Ha!! Ok buddy, tell me another one. Its a weather blog, we discuss weather and what might happen, I really hope the people of New Orleans dont listen to us!..LOL
Not trying to stir up trouble but I don't think this(a model showing a system headed to the Gulf Coast) cam up until this morning. At least I didn't see anyone(or any model but I don't normally look at CMC) bringing this up 36 hours ago.

Also, as sensitive as we are to tropical systems right now here in SW La., you would think I would have heard something on the radio or local TV about it. Nothing so far and the GFS doesn't show anything either except tons of shear.
256. WSI
Geez, ST, you are over the top now. You aren't fooling anyone. Quit acting so ridiculous.
257. IKE
per GetReal..."louasta according to the cmc we here in La coast would be dealing with a cat 1, or cat 2 hurricane at most at landfall..."...

Once again, he's talking about 1 computer model. Same thing...this is a tropical weather blog.

I think you should take your meds ST. Calm down.
well they do weather guy and how unfortunate they are listening to some of you...all im asking until the NHC starts to issue advisories on a storm dont try to create one or invent one and pretend to know where its going 84 hours out...
I think if it is going to develop, the people forcasting are going to have "say it isent so" syndrom. They probably wont say anything untill its actually a TD.
True SW. I wrote about this in my blog this morning. Right now the chances are minimal. But, it is something to watch for this week to see if other models come on board, or to see how the CMC does from run to run. COnditions are just terrible right now for development in the Gulf, but this may slowly change next week.
Well thankfully ST, they didnt listen to you a few weeks ago! Or during Emily!..Ha Ha!!
Posted By: GetReal at 7:27 AM GMT on June 06, 2006.
louasta according to the cmc we here in La coast would be dealing with a cat 1, or cat 2 hurricane at most at landfall...

Still don't see New Orleans mentioned.

If people are freaking out because of what us, excuse me if I offend somebody, 'nobodys' say about whats going to happen in the weather, then theres a major problem with where they get thier information and how they corroborate it. NHC should be everyone's first source for information of hurricanes. NO ONE should be coming her, reading that someone said something is heading there way and freaking out BEFORE they go to the NHC and check it out. So I'm sorry to say, but I have no remorse for someone who is freaking out that someone said something is headed thier way WHEN THERES NOTHING EVEN OUT THERE and it would take 2 minutes to find that out from the NHC.
Hey ST, send me your fax number. I will send you my daily tropical forecasts. I will even do it for free!
Hey, ST, Its going to be a cat 12 when it makes landfall in alabama...
yes ike but you try to explain to the people of new orleans about that.. they have no idea what the gfs is they have never heard of it..gee give me a break here...you think everyone in the new orleans area studies weather well you are more juvenille then i thought and i will leave you guys and just keep the hype down until a storm actually forms.like i said before and ill say it again this will be a slow hurricane season and the shear will be around for at least 10 more days...so sit back look at your models but you dont have to mention cities are where you think its going..you guys have a great day and ill get back to work....StormTop
ST it's not an erroneous statement til 84 hours have gone past and nothing has formed.

Its a bit hypocritical of you to say this, you may absolutely ridiculous suggestions that everything is going to hit NO last year, and then one did well done.

All I have seen are people showing a model is forecasting a storm foming and heading in to the gulf, which is fact a model is showing that, and then joking about its accuracy, as all the models show nothing.

Get a grip Storm Flop your losing it
Some SF if they don't study weather why are they reading WU posts? usually people who don't know about weather (your self the exception) just look at NHC.
Are you making all this up for attention?
269. IKE
per ST..."yes ike but you try to explain to the people of new orleans about that.. they have no idea what the gfs is they have never heard of it..gee give me a break here...you think everyone in the new orleans area studies weather well you are more juvenille then i thought"....

Calm down son....take your meds...how does NO handle a tornado watch, severe TS watch??? I think your the one that needs to just chill out.

I keep seeing "freaked out", "hysteria", etc.. The only behavior of that sort, that I have seen, was coming from the guy(ST) who was asking others not to post stuff that would do the same to entire cities. I didn't see that happen either. One casual comment about a model that appeared to show a system and that comment even had the caveat, "Has thing thing flipped out or what?"(or something to that effect).

Again ST. Your enthusiasm is both awe inspiring and scary but never, ever boring. LOL.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:25 PM GMT on June 06, 2006.
well they do weather guy and how unfortunate they are listening to some of you...all im asking until the NHC starts to issue advisories on a storm dont try to create one or invent one and pretend to know where its going 84 hours out...

You can't even follow your own advice. The people who seem to hold you in high regards (which honestly, with how you treat people, I can't understand) talk about your Katrina predictions being nearly perfect 5 days in advance.

I do not intend to argue the accuracy of your forecasts (and I am begging others not to argue the accuracy of his forecasts as well), as I really don't care, but if you are going to talk about where a storm is going to go 84 hours (or more) in advance, then you have absolutely no right to tell others that they can't do the same.
272. IKE
It is laughable. Thanks for the entertainment ST.

273. IKE
"I do not intend to argue the accuracy of your forecasts (and I am begging others not to argue the accuracy of his forecasts as well), as I really don't care, but if you are going to talk about where a storm is going to go 84 hours (or more) in advance, then you have absolutely no right to tell others that they can't do the same."....

EXACTLY. AMEN and well said.
It's no longer 84 hours out. The Canadian model has a cylone developing in 30 hours in the pacific, and on the outside chance that it hits where it syays it's going to hit, its in 144 hours. A lot will change in that time.
send me a link of the canadian model please.
276. IKE
I will say this...there is low pressure in the NW caribbean. You can see it on a visible satellite loop. I'll keep looking and watching ST. Hopefully nothing will become of it, but we could use some rain in the Florida panhandle...just a good afternoon shower is all I ask.
If anything develops, it's stayin in the pacific. mark it down people this is a guarantee and i should know, i've looked at the water vapor imagery.

wait, forgot to put it in ALLCAPS
Posted By: IKE at 10:39 AM CDT on June 06, 2006.
Calm down son....take your meds...


No offense, but saying something like that is really rather childish, and completely unnecessary. I would appreciate it if you (and everyone else for that matter) would refrain from saying things like that in the future.

P.S. Forgive me if I ever say something like that.
What's weird is that even the CMC model shows just abunch of shear and this rouge storm punching right threw it. Now based on what you folks have taught me over the past year plus, that must be some bad mamma jamma system to survive that.

Dazed and confused.

I guess that's the fun of it though.....Even though we REALLY hope nothing develops(thank you GFS[for now anyway]).
send me a link of the canadian model please.

Here you go.
281. IKE
louastu...IT WAS MEANT AS A JOKE!!!!

ruoge = rogue
abunch = a bunch

I always think this looks more dramatic


and hit FWD
I am sorry then. I see comments like that all the time on here, and it is hard for me to believe that everyone is joking.

I am also a little more irritable than normal, due to the fact that I only got 2-3 hours of sleep last night.

Again, if it was a joke (and STORMTOP knows it), then I am sorry.
Why such short sleep louastu?
286. IKE
I was joking with him...nothing more. Someone posted on here earlier about a cat 12 hitting Alabama....now that's nothing to joke about, but whoever said it was teasing.

I had a serious headache last night. It took about 2 hours for the Ibuprophen (not sure if that is how it is spelled) to kick in.
it was me IKE...
And I didn't take it till about 2:00 AM.
Oh, well I'm sorry...
Have you guys looked at this shear loop on the CMC? I think it is very interesting that the center of the high or whatever it is in the shear lines moves right on top of the hurricane all the way into the gulf. Just slices the shear apart.
292. IKE
And it was a joke.
Yea, Levi. That's what I was referring to earlier. Weird!
Well, I am sorry then.
I see that Levi. It's like that bad boy creates its own conducive environment, and I just can't see a developing storm bust up shear like that.
Definately weird. And if you look at the GFS MSLP Loop you can see it pokes a little low into the southwestern Caribbean, but keeps everything in the east Pacific. I think that the CMC is seeing development in both the Pacific and the Caribbean, and then fusing together which pulls the whole thing north and for some strange reason bombs it out into a Cat 2 hurricane.
Sorry..I have a weather question.. [hate to interrupt these reindeer games ;-)], though not specifically tropical.

I am trying to learn/understand about cap. I understand it is a mid level slotting of warm dry air that controls low level convection potential to creating thunderstorms. What I am seeking to learn is how does one determine its strength and thickness [models/readings] and how does one determine what level of low level instability is needed to break it?

Any feedback would be appreciated. Thanks..

Back to your regularly scheduled blog...
I saw that as well on the GFS Levi. I'm hoping that it is not the CMC version, just delayed. However, the GFS is also showing a great deal of shear during the same time frame. I think the CMC is just exercising her muscles a little.
Me too Sayhuh. I was asking this a few weeks ago(and got a lot of good answers). I hate these high pressure ridges because it gets so dang hot and dry. Great question about determination/forecasting strength and longevity.
That could be the case swlaaggie. The CMC hasn't shown anything big all spring it's about time it spouts off about something, no matter how weird. Also I'm sure you noticed the NAM(ETA) model is still developing the Caribbean system.
the cap is evaluated by looking at soundings of the atmosphere and also at model output. the soundings are the best, of course, but they only do soundings at some location so you have to fill in with the models.

as for the amount of instability to break through...that depends on the strength of the cap. often forecasters determine a "convective temperature"...this is the temp that the lowest levels need to attain to break the cap.
302. Inyo
Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:25 PM GMT on June 06, 2006.
well they do weather guy and how unfortunate they are listening to some of you...all im asking until the NHC starts to issue advisories on a storm dont try to create one or invent one and pretend to know where its going 84 hours out...

Am i confused or is this the same guy who was predicting every hurricane last year to hit a major city as a catergory 5?
sounding for topeka...they don't do a sounding at Kansas City (?!) but do at Topeka. Click on "text" for some explanation but not much. maybe some real meteorologist on here can explain the diagram better.

an explanation of the skew-t diagram...

If I remember correctly that chart is an adiabatic chart. The white line on the left is the dry adiabatic rate, and the white line on the right is the moist adiabatice rate. The moist line represents the rate that a parcel of air cools if the air is saturated (the humidity is 100%) the dry line represents the rate of cooling of a parcel of air which is not saturated (the humidity is less than 100%) For a parcel of air to keep rising, its temperature must be warmer then that of the environment around it. I think the yellow line represents the Environmental lapse rate, which is the rate at which the temperature changes with elevation.
306. WSI
I know enough to be dangerous, but I will post a site that would probably be able to explain it better than I...

basically you are right levi. i have a decent grasp on the basics but then i see the skew t's and my mind melts a bit.

basically, if the actual air cools with height more quickly than a parcel that is lifted, then the atmosphere is unstable. if the actual air cools more slowly, it's stable.
Areas to the left of the white line on the left side of the diagram(the dry adiabatic rate) is absolutely unstable air, at which any parcel of air can rise unhibited. You can see the yellow line crosses to the left side of the dry adiabatic rate line at about 13000 meters. This is the level of free convection (LFC) At this point the parcel of air will rise unhibited.
rwdobson, I use the spc/forecast tools/soundings page as well. In looking at this, I need to know what I am looking at on the skew -T . The SPC skew - T is a bit more comprehensive..so I like using it. I have heard that there is a relationship with the CINH value and cap, but I am not clear on what number ranges indicate high or low cap. Thanks on the convective Temp..that will help!
so is anyone think this will be Alberto? Link
312. WSI
Nice link rwdobson! Going to add that one to my link directory.
best to ignore stormtop...he's always totally self serving
So in this particular plot if I am reading it right, says that near the surface saturated air would rise unabated, but at 3500 meters or so the lapse rate moves to the right of the moist adiabatic rate, making the air absolutely stable, and the air would not be able to rise any farther unless forced At 10000 meters the lapse rate moves back inbetween the two white lines, so saturated air would rise, but unsaturated would not. And as I mentioned earlier at 13000 meters the air is absolutely unstable.

So this is basically a classic cap over Topica Texas. The air starts the rise, but is stopped for a good time and then won't rise unless it is forced way high up.
Topica, Kansas not Texas sorry.
I personally don't think it is going to develop.

Anyway, I will be back later.
Jughead it is unlikely at this point, but the Caribbean still needs to be watched this week.
look at the text summary for the unisys sounding, it might help. it says the cap is 6 degrees, which is pretty strong. more than 4 degrees is strong. also, note that the convective inhibition is 354 J/kg, while the convective potential is only 362 J/kg. In other words, the sounding is capped.

however, once the ground heats up, and the front to the north comes along, the extra forcing could break the cap.
I agree that it most likely won't develop, but that is 2 days in a row that this model has shown the path for this low....
Thanks rwdobson that does help with the readings.
321. code1
Okay dumb questions here. I am a mere woman here and really do need to go paint my nails. Answers quickly will be most appreciated :-)

1) Wasn't the CMC model the least reliable last year?

2) Who cares who gets how many faxes or calls? The most of us here rely on Bob anyway. Does that bother you Bob? I sure hope not.

3) We have a blogger who answers all posts as if they were addressed specifically to him. With long posts taking up Dr. M's blog. Same person seems to be begging for a NHC position. Again, who cares?

4) Yes, the panhandle desperately needs rain, but like NO, we remember the past 2 years all too well. I really don't think anyone here wishes that on ANYONE! The models are just that, fun to watch and learn from.

4) The most important in my feeble mind though, is what about the hormones here? Get a grip guys!!! Please tone down the testosterone running amok in the good Dr. M's blog. I realize there are a lot of teen's here and know how hormones work. The same goes, that you older guys are the protectors of your turf. I understand that, however, truly not needed here.

Blog wars are fun, silly, stupid, hurtful, etc. But....let's keep the name calling, bashing, fights, etc. in our own blogs!! Please leave this one for what admin meant for it to be!!!
Yes Jughead I agree it is rare to see that kind of thing repeat itself like that. The GFS even hints at it, but keeps everything in the Pacific. Also the NAM(ETA) is developing the Caribbean system. That, combined with the action close to the coast in the Pacific, could all come together to make a storm, but a hurricane moving into Louisiana as a Cat 2 is kind of out of the question lol.
Good points Code!

My answer to your first question is that the CMC was not the least reliable, but one of the least. It was extremely good at picking out a storm 5-6 days in advance, and was usually right when no other model picked it up (sounds scary condsidering what it just forecasted). It was not good at forecasting the strength and track of storms, but was the absolute best when it came to forecasting their formation.

I don't understand the explanation from the link. It doesn't sound correct. It says "As the air parcel becomes saturated, its physical stat e is transformed from a gas to a liquid state, and in doing so (condensation) the energy absorbed is called latent heat. Once this "latent" heat is added to the air parcel, it now becomes lighter and warmer than its surrounding air.

That's not thermodynamically correct. Latent heat is positive if heat is absorbed, negative if given up. In order to have a phase change from gas to liquid(in other words, condensation), heat is liberated. In this case(condensation), from the air parcel to the environment. The parcel wouldn't heat up, it would cool down.

Oh well, not picking nits(you didn't write the article) but the explanation doesn't make sense to me.

Did I miss something that you can tell?

rwdobson, what should I think when I see negative CINH values?
Swlaaggie, I think you are absolutely right. The only reason a saturated air parcel rises easier then a dry parcel, is because saturated air cools much slower then non-saturated air. You are right about the latent heat I don't know why they described that process that way.

The heat that is liberated doesn't go from the parcel to the environment. it is liberated from the condensing water vapor into the parcel, warming it.

in the other direction, evaporation causes cooling. that's why swamp coolers work; the evaporation takes energy from the air into the water droplets, cooling the air.

I used the "t"(thermo). I swore I wouldn't do that again. My bad.

saturated air is lighter (less dense) than dry air...that's one reason why it rises. and it also cools more slowly.
did i her some one say cat 2 hurricane?
Oh sorry you are right rwdobson. I forgot about that sorry swlaaggie.
aha, thanks rw.

That was my disconnect. I was right about the heat direction. I misinterpreted the receipt of the heat. Okay, parcel heats and rises some more.

Well done.
I assume negative CINH means convective encouragement (is that the opposite of inhibition)?
thermo is good. very good. understand the thermo. live the thermo. do not fight the thermo, as you will not win...;-)


Have to disagree there. Saturated air is heavier than dry air. Fog!
Sorry swla...but moist air is lighter than dry air. Water vapor (H2O) is actually a very light molecule, esp compared to O2 and N2...

fog requires an inversion to trap the lighter moist air at the surface...
"Most people who haven't studied physics or chemistry find it hard to believe that humid air is lighter, or less dense, than dry air. How can the air become lighter if we add water vapor to it?
Scientists have known this for a long time. The first was Isaac Newton, who stated that humid air is less dense than dry air in 1717 in his book, Optics. But, other scientists didn't generally understand this until later in that century. "

Yea, I knew you were going to catch me on that. I was getting ready to 'fess up.

Senior moment.
Your right. H2O = 18 mw, air = 29(+/-)

If you mix water into air, mixed MW has to go down. That's when I knew I had stepped in it.

LOL - not to proud here
I guess I am probably the only one seeing a squirrel in the satelite view of the MCS in Ok/AR.

I think I have been staring at skew-Ts too long today..I have lost my mind!
sayuh, it is 6-6-06, so i hope you don't see anything too sinister in these radar echoes...lol
To answer your question earlier Code, I didnt rely too much on the Canadian last season. My favorites are the GFS and NOGAPS. The GFDL also once a storm has formed, but the GFDL is alittle erratic during the first few days of development.
I am only getting 12 frames on the CMC model of the FSU site for the 12Z run for MSLP. It cuts off at 72 hrs, oddly before it shows the the emergence of the low into the Caribbean/Gulf. Anyone else having this issue? I am thinking this was 144 hr model like the others...
Sayhuh the CMC 0z runs are 144 hours, but the 12z runs are only 72 hours.
I don't see the model of a less than 1000mb low hitting the states anymore on the tracking models..
347. code1
Thanks for the answers! I thought as much Bob. See, you Leftyy, SJ, and others are more alike in your thinking than not, if I remember correctly from our freshman year here! LOL Toe nails dry now, and am off to slay whatever snake is lurking, trying to get to my water! Have a great day all!
that(06-06-06) explains it rw, you know what I'm talking about


Sayhuh, that had me puzzled too. Thanks Levi.
349. IKE
While were enjoying all this dry air in the southeast....Kingston, Jamaica...dew point of 81...lots of rain in their forecast...must be that disturbance.......
Look at this everyone!!! This will be sooooo great for the hurricane season! You all know about the NASA satellite page right? And you also know that it is impossible to post animations of those satellite images, which is sad because the zoomed in animations are so great. NOT ANY MORE! I just found the satellite help page for the NASA satellite website! It gives the html code for us to mimic to make our own customized images and animations that will update by themselves in the blogs! We have never been able to do this before with this site! PLEASE take a look at this you will want to use it this season!

Forgive me I am just sooo excited about hits!
Let me test it. This should be a nasa water vapor loop:

Oops lol! Didn't work. Click on the "report as" button to see it lol.\

By the way, "hits" at the end of my last post should be "this" sorry.
Argg, oh well look at the help page I posted and you will get the picture.

That site isn't bad at all, very exciting :D
Ok HGW, now post an animation of that same image, much harder, you have to know a lot about modifying html code. It will take a while for me to figure out how to get it in the blog.
Storm picture of Latitude= 17 N Longitude= 103 W
that suppose to cross into the Atlantic
HGW you have to expand the width of that image in the html code to get it into the Atlantic.
oops that wasn't even the right storm
hold on brb
Please tell me if you find out how to post an animation in a blog HGW. It will be a big hit if we find out how to do it.

it doesn't give animation when you zoom into a certain area, that I can see.
No it does, just look at the help page. All we have to do is find out the code that will get it into a blog. The page says that we have to have it in template form and modify appropiately, whatever that means lol.
HGW right click on my faulty image and click "view image" you will see an animation. We just have to get it to show up on the blog.
HGW here is the frame example page. Look at the page source it shows the html code for all four of those. Look at the animation code. It is different then the other animations.
Oops Link
Here is the frame html code for an animation:

(FRAME SRC="http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20CONUS&x=268&y=197&width=450&height=200&zoom=2&numframes=6&info=vis&type=Animation")
370. code1
Levi and all. Practice on your own blogs until you can do it, or wait until the elders here can tell you. They posted them all the time last year. Animations, any type of graphics you all can think of have already been here. Go back to last year blogs, and learn from there if the older guys are not here to guide you. Again, blog space waste on the main blog.
Oh right sorry Code thanks for the reminder. Will move to another blog.
372. code1
Levi, no need to be sorry. And I am really not being ugly here. There are just so many newbies of you here this year, and this main blog is kept for Dr. M, his updates, and comments of such when there is really something out there to worry about. Others, that never post look to this site as well for their peace of mind, or lack thereof, and forecasts from him. I know a lot of people who look to Dr. M for guidance and it is not fair, nor prudent for them to have to cut through what we are used to doing as members here. I truly hope you all didn't take this as an insult. When I throw one out there, it's not here, and you can not mistake it! :-)
Levi32, don't you just need to drop the applet code defs in along with the html?
Oh code no I didn't take any offense don't think that. I totally understand and agree.

Sayhuh I don't quite understand what you mean because I don't know what "defs" are.

I have to be going now see you later1
Oops "1" should be a "!" sorry lol.
376. code1
And BTW, we love newbies! Keeps this place rocking, and the growing of the community we all love to come to, but dread during the season at the same time. Good luck to all this season!!
377. Alec
I want stormtop's number...I would love to give him a call!LOL I am super busy today so wont be on much....good discussions guys!:)
yes, lets all fax stormtop some model output and ask him to assuage our fears
379. code1
And Alec, you are one of the one's I addressed earlier. I count ST as one of the elders here in the know, as well as you are. Regardless of how many times he, or others here are wrong, he has done us all a service. When you get out of school you will see, even HC says it is a guess, you have to give everyone their due!
Let the testosterone go!!!!
380. Alec
what code? I haven't even been around today...I've said all along most of this is guess work(long range forecasts)...

381. code1
Mail Alec.
levi try img src = " instead of
iframes don't work

Hey thats over me!!!!
hahaha... is that name on the list this year??
Hey everyone,

Please know that this is not directed at anyone specifically for I am including ALL of us (naturally includes me) and have consistently stated the same sentiment and I appreciate this post myself with absolutely zero offense taken for I personally couldn't agree more with the central premise of these comments.:)

Posted By: HurricaneMyles at 3:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2006.

If people are freaking out because of what us, excuse me if I offend somebody, 'nobodys' say about whats going to happen in the weather, then theres a major problem with where they get their information and how they corroborate it. NHC should be everyone's first source for information of hurricanes.

NO ONE should be coming here, reading that someone said something is heading there way and freaking out BEFORE they go to the NHC and check it out.

To clarify, I personally have a lot of respect for so many on here who display very impressive knowledge and feel that such forecasts any of us (includes me) make which is just simply our own best educated GUESSES should always be a distant secondary perspective to anything the NHC puts out (despite their own imperfections).

The fact is that meterology (especially tropical meteorology) is inherently a most inexact science and this will never change regardless of how much progress we make in the future due to the immense complexities of our atmosphere.

I also want to reiterate once again that just because I have personally worked in the field, I most certainly do not consider myself nor any forecasts I choose to make any more important than anothers nor do I think that should be the attitude of any others here as well.

It is most important to understand in my humble opinion that everyone here adds value to this website as a result of each individuals own unique experiences, perspectives, and specific foucused areas of study whether they got it from working as a professional forecaster or reading it in books or simply experiencing storms first hand and so many other examples that apply.

I feel that the old attage should be applied when communicating on here with any other individual or any posts one makes that if we can't say something positive or constructive about someone else, then I personally believe we shgould not say anything at all.

If every single person made such an asserted committment, then there would not be any unnecessary conflict on these blogs and this comes from someone who has made this mistake myself, but I will not do so again for I would rather be 100% wrong than to unnecessarily hurt anothers feelings for we should all respect each other as equal human beings first and foremost in my humble opinion.

For example, what difference does it really make on here (compliment to HurricaneMyles post) if another blogger predicts a storm to develop and it doesn't materialize?

or if one of us forecasts a major hurricane to hit the East coast this season and one doesn't?

I am pretty confident we all will ne wrong in many predictions this season if we so dare to make a best educated guess.

I personally think we should put the respect for others above unnecessarily and intentionally belittling others for we all are equal members of this community with just as much to offer this community in our own unique way.

I have changed a lot in these perspectives as should be obvious by now as a result of my families traumatic ordeal last month that reallly put things into their proper perspective for me at least and in hindsight, I personally would have done many things different in my own interactions with others.

However, we can't change the past but there is no excuse for how we conduct ourselves now and in the future.

In short, I will only offer what could be considered a dissenting comment when it comes to facts (not opinions) like my clarification earlier about the Bermuda High actually being the exact same High pressure system as the Azores High and not two separate entities and wiul not make such assertions without providing solid proof to support it.

Naturally, on occasions where I may have a completely different forecast for a particular storm than another, I can share my own personal best educaterd GUESS (opinion) without habving to belittle anothers in the process for who is to say mine will actualy be correct 5 days in advance just as I personally don't see the low forecasated by the Canadian model to become Alberto, but I could be wrong and if so I was just simply that and the same applies if I am right for it still would not make me any more important in my opinion at least, than another with an opposing forecast.

Bastardi is a legend in his own mind...
feel better chaser??
I will even go as far as to make this specific by giving an example.

Although I had the most purest of intentions at heart (in defense of the NHC) and my response was indeed supported by indisputable facts (not my opinions), it was unavoidable that I could not defend the NHC against unjustified comments against them (meaning that person should have simply given themselves credit if they so choose without having to denegrade another), I found myself not practicing the very thing I am encouraging here for there is a fine line there and it takes each of us doing their own part to ensure these things don't occur in this blog.

With that in mind, I personally don't have a problem if STORMTOP says he has received 100 calls or faxes from on here or anything else for what does it really change whether it is true or not, I would rather give him the benefit of the doubt than unnecessarily belittling him for I know personaly what it is like to have a bunch on here unjustly accuse me of lying about the most traumatic experience of my families life and their opinions had zero efect on the reality of that fact so this also helped prtovide me with a new perspective and who can say 100% that STORMTOP isn't being truthful as hard as it is to believe naturally.

Like I said, I would rather be 100% wrong (believing exactly whast he says is true and simply giving him the benefit of the doubt) than to accuse him of fabricating his stories when doing so will not change any facts about the reality of it anyway but will just unnecessarily belittle him in my humble opinion.

It is a shame that I had to be on the receiving end of the cruelest false accusations I have personally ever endured (although I have truly forgiven those responsible in my heart which is most important for me which is much easier since our baby is doing fine now) for me personally to realize what truly matters and recognize that we ALL need to show one another the exact same respect we desire ourselves in all instances and go out of our way to do so even if it doesn't come naturally for we ALL wouldn't be here if we didn't each have at least one common interest.

Since I referenced the unfair treatment I personally endured, I need to clarify once again that I have no ill will and that for me it is something from the distant past and simply used it as a most appropriate example in trying to relate to how STORMTOP may feel if he indeed is being honest in what he says for even if I personally were to find it somewhat dificult to believe, it really shouldn't matter in the big scheme of things for to disagree with him over somethiong so irrelevant to a weather discussion that actually amounts to either unintentionally or even intentionally attacking him on a personal level benefiots neither he nor I and the same applies for the entire community in my humble opinion.

In short, thank you all for reading my two cents worth on this subject that I personally felt was important to express and hope that there are others who honestly feel the same.

Most sincerely,


As a matter of fact I do, thank you for asking.:)
I have another thought/question, What is wtong with Accuweather's press release (only talking about what they state in it not the rest)?

Please let me clarify, I too have major concerns with Accuweather graphically displaying certain specific areas as high risk and others as low risk for reasons I have already stated.

That being said, I clicked on the link Dr. Masters provided in his blog entry which is the actual press release they put out and since I had not actually read it specifically, I was a little surprised by what it didn't say more than what it did.

Specifically, they said that the atmnospheric patterns are setting up and are in place that the Northeast U.S. is in a high risk for a category three storm similar to the great 1938 huricane within the next 10 years and possibly as early as this year.

When I read it, I thought to myself, is that really inappropriate?

In reality, that in itself is not in my personal opinion for the pattterns are there that it could actually materialize during any given season in reality.

I will go on record to say that I don't like any forecasters b eing arrogant (how can anyone really be in this profesion where we are wrong more often than right due to the high degree of forecasting difficulties) and why I like the NHC's approach, but that should not skew my objectiveness about everything one says.

Consequently, my only two very significant points of concern relative to Accuweather is their push against the NWS which we pay for with our own tax dollars who I personally trust more anyway and the aforementioned media blitz highlighting specific areas as high, low, and moderate risk when in reality they should be saying as the NHC that no one really knows that and all areas from Texas to Maine are equally at high risk during any given season.

I have another qustion, What is wtong with Accuweather';s press release (only talking about what they state in it not the rest)?

Please let me clarify, I too have major concerns with Accuweather graphically displaying certain specific areas as high risk and others as low risk for reasons I have already stated.

That being said, I clicked on the link Dr. Masters provided in his blog entry which is the actual press release that put out and since I had not actually read it specifically, I was a little surprised by what it didn't say more than what it did.

Specifically, that said that the atmnospheric patterns are setting up and are in place that the Northeast U.S. is in a high risk for a category three storm similar to tyhe great 1938 huricane within the next 10 years and possibly as early as this year.

When I read it, I thought to myself if that is really inappropriate and that in itself is not for the pattterns are their that it could actually materialize during any given season in reality.

I will go on record to say I don't like any forecasters arrogance and why I like the NHC's approach but that should not skew my objectiveness about everything one says.

Consequently, my ony two points of concern relative to Accuweather is their push against the NWS we pay for with our own tax dollars who I personally trust more anyway and the aforementioned media blitz highlighting specific areas as high, low, and moderate risk when in reality they should be saying (in my personal opinion) as the NHC does that no one really knows that and all areas from Texas to Maine are equally at high risk during any given season.

You sure know how to kill a blog.
Hey Shadyguy,

Thanks for the kind words.:)

Hey Shadyguy,

I will add that I respectfully disagree with that presumption for no one has the ability to do that except those who choose not to post.
Any thoughts about the Northeast cyclone right now. It's currently going to bring in rotating rain bands.
Wondered when hurricanes were going to start looking like swastikas.
I gotta give you this, Hurricane Chaser.
You are wierd, but you are a polite and nice guy. I mean that sincerely.

But you are so wordy.........
African Coast is looking rather saucy as of late around 10N
Wow...Chaser..you are feelin it tonight! So verbose! I had to pull out my special blog bookmark to get through all that. Just joking with you!!!

y chase quick comment to you that i made to lefty
last year when he bashed old bastardi when i gave proof over and over
how he won more than he lost against nhc i got my awnser thus blog is dominated
by max jokefields kin and masters lord thats unappropriate last name for that clowninlaws lol well a lot of us like accupro thats why i pay for it and well satisfied but i like this group to
better than general hospital. as far as all our opinions well they are likea--holes we all got one still love yall
and give old storm drop a break he has put up with the saints as long as i have enough to cause brain damage. durn tony this post is as long as yours lol
god bless billy
Low pressure off of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina supposed to be anything other then a rogue system. Comments? Oh and I updated my blog. Care for a record 5 comments this time.
Houston Press spoof of hurrican hype.


whoo hoo, we're sure being eccentric today - guess all the waiting for what we know is coming is getting to people..
Chaser is quick to the gun but, he speaks the truth and that is it. Some don't like the hardlined aproach he takes but, hey this is America and everyone is entitled thier opinion, some just choose to be abrasive, for what reason I have no Idea.
I wonder how anyone can think there was anything inappropriate much less hardline on anyone in my posts for I was actually defending STORMTOP not rediculing him if I am understanding it correctly.

If I am not, please forgive the confusion.:)

Image of the Low pressure system off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Water Vapor Satellite Imagery. Look at the large swath of tropical air coming towards the southeastern Massachusetts area. I just heard Jim Cantore on the weather channel talking about 2 - 4 inches of rain to the east of I91 or is it I95 that's the only one I could think off.
Yes. My first posted link worked with animation. I got 3 comments lets stride for 5 please this time. Great comments so far agreeing with me. Just need two more and that makes my day. By the way, this will be another two more gloomy and tropical days for us. Could this be another reason for Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Forecast this year, especially after mentioning last October. THis is almost a similar situation, but without a tropical cyclone going by like Wilma did last year.
LOL Shadyguy,

I can accept being considered "weird" for we all here have different views on many different issues but I have learned that all that should matter here is our common appreciation for weather that unites us.

By the way, thanks for the kind words for I would rather be respected for genuinely being nice to others than any knowledge I may have or anything else that is secondary to me personally.

I will add that I wholeheartedly agree with those who say I am too wordy, I struggle not to be honestly.:)

Hello Everybody....... Found this article today and thought it was intersting.....so posting the link of it here Newsweek What are your thoughts on this and do you think we in the States should also be trying this for sporting events and such? After reading the artcle it gave me an uneasy feeling since i don't think we should be messing with the weather.
I'm heading off to bed. I'll be back for twenty minutes after five o'clock to check back with you guys to see what's happening then its off to school. Bye.
Sounds like they've checked out this blog. From the Houston Press article:

AccuWeather is calling for hurricanes to hit Texas in June or July. Other weather junkies dismiss that claim as being impossible to predict, and good only for hyping the AccuWeather brand.
Just stopped in before heading to bed. EVeryone have a great night. I will be back in more when we have a storm. I am swamped with the site. I have updated the tropical page on the site and would love to have any input.


Hey Billy,

I honestly have no knowledge of how accurate Accuweather is with their forecasts much less in comparison with the NHC.

It is only my personal opinion (nothing more) that the NHC is the first stop one should make before even considering forecasts from any other source.

However, I respect your opinion as well and take your word for it that Accuweather is another excellent source.

Thanks for the post and it is great hearing from you as always.

Most sincerely,

Anyone read the article on LiveScience.com about CloudSat?

New Satellite Provides 'Breathtaking' Views Inside Storms

Imagine a network of these orbiting.
Have a great night NAtlantic.:)
Hey Moocrew,

I am with you on that one for I believe such attempts at modifying natural weather cycles could produce a far worse consequence than letting nature take its course.
Cool link, Astinus. Thanks!
To my knowledge, Accuweather never actually predicted that Texas will have a tropical storm/hurricane. They simply said that they feel that the Texas coast is at a high risk in the early part of the hurricane season.

To me, this is a far cry from saying they will have a tropical system.
Oh i'm sure that fact would change if one does hit the Texas coast.........I'm sure they would say they predicted it.
428. code1
Ahhhh, I tried Dr. M. Looks to be that you are doomed for loooong blog space take up this year. BTW, I have seen ridiculous spelled wrong so many times here...it is spelled "ridiculous"!! We all have misspelled words as we type, but that one is a constant, whether it is used telling one they are so, or that their forecasts are. Have a good night all!
Looks like a missed the party tonite!..LOL Oh well, there will be many nights of fun this season!!..LOL See ya!
Another oft-misspelled word is "Caribbean", often spelled "Carribean".
yup I can't spell Caribbean either =/
Hey guys, just checking in before bed. I would like to point out a couple different models which are forecasting a storm in the Caribbean besides the CMC. First, as some of you already know, the NAM(ETA) model has been consisistantly developing the Caribbean system for the last 2 days. Here is tonight's 0z 84-hour forecast. Next is the NAM-WRF model, which bombs a hurricane in the same location as the NAM. Here is tonight's 84-hour forecast. The GFS is still hesitant to indicate development, but still hints at it. Bottom line: watch the Caribbean this week.

See you all tomorrow!
Oops sorry the NAM-WRF link didn't work. Here it is:

[URL=http://www.picfury.com/19/NAMWRF Hurricane-1.html][IMG]http://www.picfury.com/19/NAMWRF Hurricane-1-th.png[/IMG][/URL][URL=http://www.picfury.com/index.php][IMG]http://www.picfury.com/img/banner7.png[/IMG][/URL]

Free image hosting
Just click on it for larger version. Have a great night everyone!
437. code1
Chaser, your humble opinion has no bearing on what I feel or don't feel. You read my post today and wrote your blog. Fine, your choice. However, I really see no need for you to answer everyone, when they are not even addressing you, with long posts. If you want to answer that way, please do it in your own blog. So many people rely on the main blog here that never post. Why should they have to read throgh your long posts to get through it? Your right to post answers, forecasts, and opinions here, the same as the rest. Just don't post a dissertation every time! You are correct, respect is needed here, but, you have to earn it.
438. code1
And BTW, you saw yourself in my post without me naming you. If the shoe fits......
Levi32 thanks for sticking with this - we will worship at your feet if you called this one correctly..
441. Alec
Shear may completely collapse by June 12 and during that time we may be facing some very hot weather
If shear really does drop that much, then what the CMC has been showing for several days is not so crazy after all.
Thanks Alec - the days of peace and quiet are clearly numbered, as SSTs rise and shear drops.
cheers code1, have a good night, and keep your eye on the tropics..
446. Alec
Yes Michael, but the models are forecasting some extreme temperatures with a huge dome of high pressure over the SE around that time(same time they will get hot)......
448. Alec
CMC model now thinks whatever this low will form will now hit the Panhandle..link
451. code1
Thanks snowboy, cheers to you as well. And living where I do, I always keep my eye on them! Good job Levi!
By the way, the CMC no longer forms it in the East Pacific; it now starts in the Caribbean. Link
453. code1
The panhandle? Ah jeez. I'm going to bed. Don't wanna hear that!! Nite all.
The UKMET latest run is now trying to develop a TD in the Bay of Campeche... The GFS is also bringing the EPAC energy into the SW Gulf and hinting at development!!! Things starting to get interesting???
thanks MichaelSTL - Chaser your opinion on the model indications of pending activity in the Gulf would be appreciated..
NOGAPS latest run now developing TD off the NW Yucatan and moving systen NW towards northern Mexico...
461. Alec
I think the CMC model has gone insane! But interesting to note, some of the other models are hinting of something in the Gulf as well in different locations(which has yet to happen, and we still wont know for sure for a few more days).....It will be interesting to see if they back out on their current forecasts or trend to more tropical development......
hey Levi32, did you catch my 5:40 am GMT comment? LOL :-)
463. Alec
I'm still not convinced though.....It's a wait and see situation now....
Alec, it should be obvious within a day or two at the outside if this is real.
467. Alec
snowboy, all I can hope is that the CMC will develop a snowstorm for FL!LOL Good morning!:)
god it has the storm hitting Florida
Some amazing weather in Pheonix Arizona today. Took some photos and blogged about it:

472. IKE
Latest CMC has it coming toward ME in the Florida panhandle in 144 hours!!!!

Calm down...just one model.

NOGAPS has it heading toward Mexico.

NAM has it around the Yucatan in 84 hrs.

The blob in the Caribbean is worth watching.

BUT...according to the NHC...in their morning advisory..."TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY."

Apparently it isn't fixing to develop and may never.
CMC hass it coming out of SC to affect me in NC.
474. IKE
At least STORMTOP will be happy. It's not heading toward the big easy anymore according to the CMC.

475. WSI
Oh boy, I see we had fun in here last night.

The CMC is really locked on that storm. Doesn't want to let that idea go.

Anyway, for those still left in here, check out weathercore.com if you haven't dropped by yet. Suggestions and comments welcome.

I am trying to organize a friendly hurricane predicition contest on my blog come see the rules and offer suggestions.

OD's Blog

---END PLUG---
478. WSI

Hey don't worry about it OD. A lot of us put in shameless plugs. Otherwise people might not see things in the other blogs, LOL!
Good morning all,

We actually have rain in SW La this morning. Have you ever seen a bird do the moonwalk? Collective sigh of relief here. Boy do we need this.

CMC sure isn't afraid to go out on a limb. You've got to love its enthusiasm and persistence. Hope it's dead wrong!

Have a great, super, fantastic morning.
anyone starting to believe yet? Link
481. WSI
Not with only one model picking it up Jug. Not to mention the fact that the Gulf is still hostile (even though shear may slacken up a bit).
Finally getting some beautiful rains here in Cayman--Golf course loving it.
invest 93E has appeared on nrl

20kts 1009 mb appears to be 13N 94W location.. can't really tell
Boy, that CMC is scary. Good ole New Orleans would be in the cone. Seems to be the only model that aggressive though, I woulden't put credience to it.
I still dont understand how the CMC is plowing the storm right through the jetstream and maintaining intensity up until landfall. That right there makes me petty skeptical of the whole thing, too.
Well good morning everyone hope you all had a great night apart of all the ''weird'' arguing that we had yesterday here en the NE caribbean things are looking quiet at the moment we hope it stays the same way...
Posted By: fredwx at 4:16 PM CDT on June 05, 2006.
RE NE Major Hurricane Strike

This years risk of an intense hurricane in the NE significanly higher than normal. This year the risk is estimated to be less than 2% (hardly under the gun!). The average annual risk is under 0.7%, however.

This is why we should not be dwelling on the "threat" to the Northeast.

Good post, FRED.
488. Alec
Making long range 1-3 month forecasts is more of random guessing. Climatology can lead you in a general direction but you know how they say you can't have any 2 snowflakes look alike? We're talking trillions of variables that are very different each year! Analog yrs are pretty much the BEST they can find that matches this yr but still fall short in many ways...We should all be prepared regardless of whether someone says your area is in a "low risk" region...
Hey all, wondering if anyone can point me in the right direction, I'm looking for the highest NHC offical record wind speeds recorded at land.

The highest I've found so far is Ivan at 130kts (150mph) sustained and 149kt (171mph) gust on Grand Cayman in 2004

Any ideas, checked Wilma, Katrina and Rita,

Did they have any offical record for Camille back then, must have been higher.
Yes i completely agree with you as a young future meteorologist i can learn lots of things on here but i am also learning intelligent insults basically this is as versatile as it is...
I believe Camille has the record at 165 kts (190 mph). That is also the highest official windspeed recorded in any TC.

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